The real reason it's going to take a while to know who won in some midterm races

Stephen Richer no longer runs elections in the fourth-largest county in the country.

斯蒂芬·里彻 (Stephen Richer) 不再在该国第四大县进行选举。

But for the rest of his life, he'll remember the feeling when polls closed on an election night.

但在他的余生中，他都会记住选举之夜投票结束时的感觉。

More than a million ballots staring at him and his staff.

超过一百万张选票盯着他和他的工作人员。

Every moment that passes without them fully counted means another conspiracy theory sprouting online.

每一个没有被充分统计的时刻都意味着另一个阴谋论在网上萌芽。

"Those days, those were hell for me," said Richer, a Republican who served as the clerk and recorder for Arizona's Maricopa County.

“那些日子对我来说简直就是地狱，”曾担任亚利桑那州马里科帕县书记员和记录员的共和党人里彻说。

"You'd have a limited number of workers, and you'd have a limited amount of space, and you'd be doing everything that you possibly could.

“你的工人数量有限，空间有限，但你会尽你所能。

…

……

And yet you have everyone blowing up your phone, everyone saying that you're incompetent or corrupt or worse."

然而，每个人都炸毁你的手机，每个人都说你无能、腐败或更糟。”

This midterm year, election officials in competitive congressional districts will face that same pressure.

今年中期，竞争激烈的国会选区的选举官员将面临同样的压力。

But they will also face a hard reality: that those races might not be called until days after Election Day.

但他们也将面临一个严峻的现实：这些比赛可能要到选举日几天后才会举行。

Here's an FAQ on why that is, and what it could mean this year.

以下是常见问题解答，了解其原因以及今年可能意味着什么。

Why do we know the results immediately in some places, and in others it takes days or weeks?

为什么在某些地方我们可以立即知道结果，而在另一些地方则需要几天或几周的时间？

Which sounds strange, since who wins an election and by how much shouldn't impact how long it takes election officials to count ballots.

这听起来很奇怪，因为谁赢得选举以及获胜多少不应该影响选举官员计票所需的时间。

But the reality is what most Americans think of as "election results" — the winners announced on election nights across TV networks and social media — are not the result of all ballots being counted, but rather, races being called by news organizations that determine the winners based on a state or district's demographics and initial returns.

但现实是，大多数美国人所认为的“选举结果”——在选举之夜通过电视网络和社交媒体宣布的获胜者——并不是所有选票都被清点的结果，而是新闻机构根据州或地区的人口统计数据和初始回报确定获胜者的结果。

(NPR relies on The Associated Press for its race calls.)

（NPR 依靠美联社进行竞选宣传。）

Those determinations come a lot faster when races aren't close.

当比赛不势均力敌时，这些决定会来得更快。

"Margins matter," said Richer, who noted that in recent elections, there has been a lot less scrutiny on Utah than there has been on his home state of Arizona, or certain contests in California, despite the states counting votes at similar speeds.

里彻说：“利润很重要。”他指出，在最近的选举中，对犹他州的审查比他的家乡亚利桑那州或加利福尼亚州的某些竞选要少得多，尽管各州的计票速度相似。

"In Utah you can call all the races very quickly because the Republicans there have high margins," Richer said.

“在犹他州，你可以很快地宣布所有竞选，因为那里的共和党有很高的优势，”里彻说。

That gives the illusion of elections there being complete, but no state is done counting ballots on election night, even if it seems that way because notable races are called early.

这给人一种选举已经完成的错觉，但没有一个州在选举之夜完成计票工作，即使看起来是这样，因为重要的竞选都会提前宣布。

So you're saying the timing of results isn't at all tied to vote-counting speed?

所以你是说结果的时间与计票速度完全无关？

The closer the race, the more election analysts need to see before they can make a call.

竞选越接近，选举分析师在做出决定之前需要了解的信息就越多。

So the faster states count ballots, the faster those determinations can be made.

因此，各州计票的速度越快，做出决定的速度就越快。

This is why the longest wait times every election usually come from places that have competitive races and which also count slowly.

这就是为什么每次选举等待时间最长的地方通常都是竞争激烈且计算缓慢的地方。

Exactly.

确切地。

California has become the poster child for long results times because of both those factors: a bevy of competitive congressional districts, which help determine the balance of power in the U.S. House, and a vote count that's been among the slowest in the nation.

由于以下两个因素，加州已成为长期结果的典范：一群竞争性的国会选区，这有助于确定美国众议院的权力平衡，以及计票速度是全国最慢的之一。

Add in that President Trump, the most prominent purveyor of election misinformation in the country, has long targeted the liberal California, and experts see a perfect storm for false voting narratives.

此外，特朗普总统是美国最著名的选举错误信息传播者，长期以来一直以自由派加州为目标，专家们认为虚假投票叙述将掀起一场完美风暴。

"It's progressive, it likes mail ballots, it gets [postmarked] mail ballots after Election Day ," Richer said.

“它是进步的，它喜欢邮寄选票，它会在选举日之后收到[盖有邮戳的]邮寄选票，”里彻说。

"It just all adds up to a fairly incendiary situation."

“这一切加在一起造成了相当煽动性的局面。”

Charles Stewart, an elections expert at MIT, put it more simply.

麻省理工学院的选举专家查尔斯·斯图尔特 (Charles Stewart) 说得更简单。

"California just has a big target on its back," said Stewart.

“加州背负着一个大目标，”斯图尔特说。

California's slow vote counting caused a lot of conspiracy theorizing during the state's June primary.

加州的计票速度缓慢，在该州六月初选期间引发了很多阴谋论。

Is this fall going to be a rerun?

今年秋天会重播吗？

Kim Alexander is cautiously optimistic that won't be the case.

金·亚历山大（Kim Alexander）对情况不会如此持谨慎乐观态度。

She runs the California Voter Foundation, which has been advocating for ways to speed up California's vote tally without giving up the state's generous voting access policies, like mailing every active registered voter a ballot.

她经营着加州选民基金会，该基金会一直倡导在不放弃该州慷慨的投票权政策的情况下加快加州计票速度的方法，例如向每位活跃的登记选民邮寄选票。

"We have all these amazing rights and opportunities that we give to our voters, and the price we're paying is a longer vote count," Alexander told NPR.

亚历山大告诉美国国家公共广播电台：“我们给予选民所有这些令人惊叹的权利和机会，但我们付出的代价是计票时间更长。”

"But that doesn't mean that it has to be this long."

“但这并不意味着它必须这么长。”

The single biggest cause for California's slow count comes from a phenomenon Alexander calls "the pig in the python" problem: a logjam of millions of vote-by-mail ballots getting returned on Election Day that need to be processed.

加州计票速度缓慢的一个最大原因来自亚历山大称之为“蟒蛇中的猪”问题的现象：在选举日，数以百万计的邮寄选票被退回，需要处理。

Those ballots take longer to count than in-person votes, as officials need to deal with envelopes and verify signatures to make sure mail ballots are cast by the people they're supposed to be cast by.

这些选票的计票时间比现场投票要长，因为官员需要处理信封并验证签名，以确保邮寄选票是由应该投票的人投票的。

Some counties see up to 50% of their vote-by-mail ballots turned in on Election Day, Alexander said, which means processing work doesn't even begin until later in the week.

亚历山大说，一些县的邮寄选票高达 50% 在选举日上交，这意味着处理工作甚至要到本周晚些时候才能开始。

"I can't tell you how many people who are informed and engaged and …

“我无法告诉你有多少人了解情况、参与其中……

when I tell them that the cause for the long vote count is voters holding on to their ballots 'til Election Day and turning them in, they look at me and they're like, 'That's what I do,'" Alexander said.

当我告诉他们，长时间计票的原因是选民保留选票直到选举日并将其上交时，他们看着我，就像，‘这就是我所做的’，”亚历山大说。

"And I'm like, 'I know!

“我说，‘我知道！

You're part of the problem!'"

你是问题的一部分！’”

The state allocated $40 million to speeding up its counting this year, and part of that money is going to voter education.

该州今年拨款 4000 万美元用于加快计票速度，其中部分资金将用于选民教育。

Alexander is optimistic that once voters learn they can play a role in speeding up the process by voting earlier, or by utilizing other voting methods that allow for quicker counting, they will respond.

亚历山大乐观地认为，一旦选民了解到他们可以通过提前投票或利用其他可以更快计票的投票方法来加快这一进程，他们就会做出回应。

"California has been beaten up by this president for over a decade over our election process, and it's gotten pretty worrisome," Alexander said.

亚历山大说：“十多年来，加州在我们的选举过程中一直遭到这位总统的殴打，这已经变得非常令人担忧。”

"I think that California voters, if they feel they can do something to respond to that, many will take action."

“我认为加州选民，如果他们觉得自己可以采取一些措施来应对这一问题，许多人会采取行动。”

To that point, research conducted earlier this year found that when voters in California's San Joaquin County received postcards urging them to vote earlier, they were more likely to meet the recommended deadline that allowed for election-night counting.

今年早些时候进行的研究发现，当加利福尼亚州圣华金县的选民收到敦促他们提前投票的明信片时，他们更有可能遵守建议的选举之夜计票截止日期。

Alexander noted one more change that could mean less spotlight on California this year: fewer competitive House districts.

亚历山大指出，另一项变化可能意味着今年加州的关注度会降低：竞争性众议院选区减少。

Ahead of the 2022 elections, the state had nine districts that the Cook Political Report considered competitive.

在 2022 年选举之前，库克政治报告认为该州有 9 个选区具有竞争力。

But this year, in part because voters approved a mid-cycle gerrymander to respond to gerrymanders in Republican-controlled states, the state has just three .

但今年，部分原因是选民批准了中期选区划分，以应对共和党控制州的选区划分，该州只有三个。

That makes it less likely the entire country will be waiting on California to know who controls the House.

这使得整个国家不太可能等待加州知道谁控制众议院。

OK, anywhere else we should be watching when it comes to results speed?

好的，当谈到结果速度时，我们还应该关注其他什么地方？

Using the formula discussed earlier (competitive races + slow vote counting), it's impossible not to look at Alaska.

使用前面讨论的公式（竞争激烈的竞选+缓慢的计票），不可能不关注阿拉斯加。

According to data from the MIT Election Lab , Alaska was the last state in 2024 to reach 95% of its ballots counted.

根据麻省理工学院选举实验室的数据，阿拉斯加州是 2024 年最后一个达到 95% 选票清点的州。

Election Day was Nov.

选举日是十一月一日。

5 that year, but the state's lone House race — which Republican Nicholas Begich won by fewer than 10,000 votes — wasn't called by the AP until Nov.

那一年，该州唯一的众议院竞选——共和党人尼古拉斯·贝吉奇以不到 10,000 票获胜——直到 11 月 5 日才被美联社公布。

20.

20.

This year, polling shows a tight Alaska Senate race.

今年的民意调查显示阿拉斯加州参议员竞选势均力敌。

That means, if results fall a certain way in other states, the entire country could be waiting weeks to know which party will control the U.S. Senate next year.

这意味着，如果其他州的选举结果出现某种程度的下滑，整个国家可能要等待数周才能知道明年哪个政党将控制美国参议院。