The New Washington Consensus, Reversed (IIF Global Outlook Forum)
You can really feel the remarkable energy, and it is with my great pleasure that I have the opportunity to welcome to the stage our distinguished speaker, Scott Bessent, who is the Secretary of the U.S. Department of Treasury.
你可以真正感受到非凡的能量，我非常高兴有机会欢迎我们尊敬的演讲者、美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）上台。
On January 28, 2025, Scott Bessent was sworn in as the 79th Secretary of the Treasury of the United States.
2025年1月28日，斯科特·贝森特宣誓就任美国第79任财政部长。
As Secretary, Mr. Bessent is responsible for the U.S. Treasury’s wide-ranging mission to maintain a strong economy, foster economic growth, and create job opportunities for all Americans by promoting the conditions that enable prosperity at home and abroad, as well as managing the U.S. government’s finances.
作为国务卿，贝森特先生负责美国财政部的广泛使命，即通过促进国内外繁荣的条件以及管理美国政府的财政来维持强劲的经济、促进经济增长并为所有美国人创造就业机会。
He is also responsible for strengthening U.S. national security by combating economic threats and protecting the financial system.
他还负责通过应对经济威胁和保护金融体系来加强美国国家安全。
Mr. Bessent has been in the global investment management business for 40 years, visiting 60 countries, interacting with international leaders and central bankers.
Bessent 先生从事全球投资管理业务 40 年，访问过 60 个国家，与国际领导人和央行行长互动。
He is regarded as a currency and fixed-income specialist.
他被视为货币和固定收益专家。
Mr. Bessent is also a frequent contributor to economic journals and business publications.
Bessent 先生还经常为经济期刊和商业出版物撰稿。
Secretary Bessent will deliver keynote remarks, followed by an in-conversation session with Tim Adams, who will join the Secretary on stage shortly after.
贝森特国务卿将发表主旨演讲，随后与蒂姆·亚当斯进行对话，蒂姆·亚当斯不久后将与国务卿一起上台。
Secretary Bessent, the stage is yours.
贝森特部长，舞台是你的。
Thank you for that kind introduction.
谢谢你的热情介绍。
It’s an honor to be here.
很荣幸来到这里。
In the final months of World War II, Western leaders convened the greatest economic minds of their generation.
在第二次世界大战的最后几个月，西方领导人召集了他们这一代最伟大的经济思想家。
Their task, to build a new financial system at a quiet resort high up in the mountains of New Hampshire, they laid the foundation for Pax Americana.
他们的任务是在新罕布什尔州高山上一个安静的度假胜地建立一个新的金融体系，为美国治下的和平奠定了基础。
The architects of Bretton Woods recognized that a global economy required global coordination.
布雷顿森林体系的缔造者认识到，全球经济需要全球协调。
To encourage that coordination, they created the IMF and the World Bank.
为了鼓励这种协调，他们创建了国际货币基金组织和世界银行。
These twin institutions were born after a period of intense geopolitical and economic volatility.
这两个孪生机构是在经历了一段激烈的地缘政治和经济波动时期之后诞生的。
The purpose of the IMF and the World Bank was to better align national interests with international order, thereby bringing stability to an unstable world.
国际货币基金组织和世界银行的目的是使国家利益与国际秩序更好地保持一致，从而为不稳定的世界带来稳定。
In short, their purpose was to restore and preserve balance.
简而言之，他们的目的是恢复和保持平衡。
This remains the purpose of the Bretton Woods institutions.
这仍然是布雷顿森林机构的目的。
Yet everywhere we look across the international system today, we see imbalance.
然而，今天我们纵观国际体系，到处都看到了不平衡。
The good news, it doesn’t have to be this way.
好消息是，事情不必是这样的。
My goal this morning is to outline a blueprint to restore equilibrium to the global financial system and the institutions designed to uphold it.
我今天上午的目标是勾勒出一个蓝图，以恢复全球金融体系和维护该体系的机构的平衡。
I have spent the bulk of my career from the outside looking in on financial policy circles.
我职业生涯的大部分时间都在从外部观察金融政策圈。
Now I am on the inside looking out.
现在我在里面向外看。
I am eager to work with each of you to restore order to the international system.
我渴望与你们每个人合作，恢复国际体系的秩序。
To achieve this, however, we must first reconnect the IMF and the World Bank with their founding missions.
然而，为了实现这一目标，我们必须首先将国际货币基金组织和世界银行与其创始使命重新联系起来。
The IMF and World Bank have enduring value.
国际货币基金组织和世界银行具有持久的价值。
But mission creep has knocked these institutions off course.
但使命的蔓延让这些机构偏离了轨道。
We must enact key reforms to ensure the Bretton Woods institutions are serving their stakeholders, not the other way around.
我们必须实施关键改革，以确保布雷顿森林机构为其利益相关者服务，而不是相反。
Bringing balance back to global finance will require clear-eyed leadership from the IMF and World Bank.
使全球金融恢复平衡需要国际货币基金组织和世界银行的清晰领导。
This morning, I will explain how they can provide that leadership to build safer, stronger, and more prosperous economies all around the world.
今天早上，我将解释他们如何发挥领导作用，在全世界建设更安全、更强大、更繁荣的经济体。
I wish to invite my international counterparts to join us in working toward these goals.
我谨邀请国际同行与我们一起努力实现这些目标。
On this point, I wish to be clear.
关于这一点，我想澄清一下。
America first does not mean America alone.
美国优先并不意味着美国单独存在。
To the contrary, it is a call for deeper collaboration and mutual respect among trade partners.
相反，它呼吁贸易伙伴之间深化合作和相互尊重。
Far from stepping back, America first seeks to expand U.S. leadership in international institutions like the IMF and the World Bank.
美国非但没有退缩，反而首先寻求扩大美国在国际货币基金组织和世界银行等国际机构中的领导地位。
By embracing a stronger leadership role, America first seeks to restore fairness to the international economic system.
通过发挥更强有力的领导作用，美国首先寻求恢复国际经济体系的公平。
Nowhere is the imbalance I mentioned earlier more obvious than in the world of trade.
我之前提到的不平衡现象在贸易领域最为明显。
That’s why the United States is taking action now to rebalance global commerce.
这就是美国现在采取行动重新平衡全球商业的原因。
For decades, successive administrations relied on faulty assumptions that our trading partners would implement policies that would drive a balanced global economy.
几十年来，历届政府都基于错误的假设，认为我们的贸易伙伴将实施推动全球经济平衡的政策。
Instead, we face the stark reality of large and persistent U.S. deficits as a result of an unfair trading system.
相反，我们面临着由于不公平的贸易体系而造成的美国持续巨额赤字的严峻现实。
Intentional policy choices by other countries have hollowed out America’s manufacturing sector and undermined our critical supply chains, putting our national and economic security at risk.
其他国家故意的政策选择掏空了美国的制造业，破坏了我们的关键供应链，使我们的国家和经济安全面临风险。
President Trump has taken strong actions to address these imbalances and the negative impacts they have on Americans.
特朗普总统已采取强有力的行动来解决这些失衡及其对美国人造成的负面影响。
The status quo of large and persistent imbalances is not sustainable.
大规模且持续失衡的现状是不可持续的。
It is not sustainable for the United States, and ultimately, it is not sustainable for other economies.
这对美国来说是不可持续的，最终对其他经济体来说也是不可持续的。
Now I know sustainability is a popular term around here, but I’m not talking about climate change or carbon footprints.
现在我知道可持续发展是这里的一个流行术语，但我不是在谈论气候变化或碳足迹。
I’m talking about economic and financial stability, the kind of sustainability that raises standards of living and keeps markets afloat.
我说的是经济和金融稳定，即提高生活水平和保持市场运转的可持续性。
International financial institutions must be singularly focused on upholding this kind of sustainability if they are to succeed in their missions.
国际金融机构若想成功完成其使命，就必须特别注重维护这种可持续性。
In response to President Trump’s tariff announcements, more than 100 countries have approached us, wanting to help rebalance global trade.
为了响应特朗普总统的关税公告，100 多个国家已与我们接洽，希望帮助重新平衡全球贸易。
These countries have responded openly and positively to the President’s actions to create a more balanced international system.
这些国家对总统创建更加平衡的国际体系的行动做出了公开和积极的回应。
We are engaged in meaningful discussions and look forward to talking with others.
我们正在进行有意义的讨论，并期待与其他人交谈。
China in particular is in need of a rebalancing.
中国尤其需要再平衡。
Recent data shows the Chinese economy tilting even further away from consumption toward manufacturing.
最近的数据显示，中国经济进一步从消费向制造业倾斜。
China’s economic system, with growth driven by manufacturing exports, will continue to create even more serious imbalances with its trading partners if the status quo is allowed to continue.
如果现状继续下去，由制造业出口推动增长的中国经济体系将继续与贸易伙伴造成更严重的失衡。
China’s current economic model is built on exporting its way out of its economic troubles.
中国当前的经济模式建立在出口摆脱经济困境的基础上。
It’s an unsustainable model that is not only harming China, but the entire world.
这是一种不可持续的模式，不仅损害中国，而且损害整个世界。
China needs to change.
中国需要改变。
The country knows it needs to change.
这个国家知道它需要改变。
Everyone knows it needs to change.
每个人都知道它需要改变。
And we want to help it change because we need rebalancing too.
我们希望帮助它改变，因为我们也需要重新平衡。
China can start by moving its economy away from export overcapacity and toward supporting its own consumers and domestic demand.
中国可以首先让经济摆脱出口产能过剩，转向支持本国消费者和内需。
Such a shift would help with global rebalancing that the world desperately needs.
这种转变将有助于世界迫切需要的全球再平衡。
Of course, trade is not the only factor in broader global economic imbalances.
当然，贸易并不是更广泛的全球经济失衡的唯一因素。
The persistent overreliance on the United States for demand is resulting in an evermore unbalanced global economy.
需求持续过度依赖美国，导致全球经济日益失衡。
Some countries’ policies encourage excess savings, which holds back private sector-led growth.
一些国家的政策鼓励过度储蓄，这阻碍了私营部门主导的增长。
Others keep wages artificially depressed, which also suppresses growth.
其他人人为压低工资，这也抑制了经济增长。
These practices contribute to global dependence on U.S. demand to spur growth.
这些做法导致全球依赖美国需求来刺激增长。
They also lead to a global economy that is weaker and more vulnerable than it should be.
它们还导致全球经济比应有的情况更加疲弱和脆弱。
In Europe, former ECB President Mario Draghi has identified several sources of stagnation, and he has outlined several recommendations to get the European economy back on the right track.
在欧洲，前欧洲央行行长马里奥·德拉吉（Mario Draghi）指出了经济停滞的几个根源，并概述了使欧洲经济重回正轨的几项建议。
European countries would do well to take his recommendations to heart.
欧洲国家最好牢记他的建议。
Europe has already taken some long-overdue initial steps that I applaud.
欧洲已经采取了一些迟来的初步措施，我对此表示赞赏。
These steps create a new source of global demand and also involve Europe stepping up on the security front.
这些举措创造了全球需求的新来源，也让欧洲加强了安全方面的努力。
I believe global economic relationships should come to reflect security partnerships.
我认为全球经济关系应该反映出安全伙伴关系。
Security partners are more likely to have compatible economies structured for mutually beneficial trade.
安全伙伴更有可能拥有兼容的经济结构，以实现互利贸易。
If the United States continues offering security guarantees and open markets, then our allies must step up with stronger commitments to shared defense.
如果美国继续提供安全保证和开放市场，那么我们的盟友就必须对共同防御作出更强有力的承诺。
The initial actions from Europe on increased fiscal and defense spending are proof that the Trump administration’s policies are indeed working.
欧洲在增加财政和国防支出方面的初步行动证明特朗普政府的政策确实有效。
The Trump administration and the U.S. Treasury are committed to maintaining and expanding U.S. economic leadership in the world.
特朗普政府和美国财政部致力于维持和扩大美国在世界上的经济领导地位。
This is especially true at the international financial institutions.
在国际金融机构中尤其如此。
The IMF and World Bank serve critical roles in the international system, and the Trump administration is eager to work with them so long as they can stay true to their missions.
国际货币基金组织和世界银行在国际体系中发挥着关键作用，特朗普政府渴望与他们合作，只要他们能够忠于自己的使命。
And under the status quo, they are falling short.
在现状下，他们的表现还不够。
The Bretton Woods institutions must step back from their sprawling and unfocused agendas, which have stifled their ability to deliver on their core mandates.
布雷顿森林机构必须放弃其庞大且缺乏重点的议程，这些议程扼杀了它们履行核心任务的能力。
Going forward, the Trump administration will leverage U.S. leadership and influence at these institutions and push them to accomplish their very important mandates.
展望未来，特朗普政府将利用美国在这些机构中的领导力和影响力，推动它们完成非常重要的任务。
The United States will also demand that the management and staffs of these institutions be accountable for demonstrating real progress.
美国还将要求这些机构的管理层和工作人员负责展示真正的进展。
I invite all of you to join us in working to refocus these institutions on their core missions.
我邀请大家与我们一起努力，使这些机构重新聚焦于其核心使命。
It is in our collective interest to do so.
这样做符合我们的集体利益。
First, we must make the IMF the IMF again.
首先，我们必须让国际货币基金组织再次成为国际货币基金组织。
The IMF’s mission is to promote international monetary cooperation, facilitate the balanced growth of international trade, encourage economic growth, and discourage harmful policies like competitive exchange rate depreciation.
国际货币基金组织的使命是促进国际货币合作，促进国际贸易平衡增长，鼓励经济增长，并阻止竞争性汇率贬值等有害政策。
These are crucially important functions to support the U.S. and global economies.
这些是支持美国和全球经济的至关重要的职能。
Instead, the IMF has suffered from mission creep.
相反，国际货币基金组织却遭遇了使命偏离。
The IMF was once unwavering in its mission of promoting global monetary cooperation and financial stability.
国际货币基金组织曾经坚定不移地致力于促进全球货币合作和金融稳定。
Now it devotes disproportionate time and resources to work on climate change, gender, and social issues.
现在，它投入了过多的时间和资源来研究气候变化、性别和社会问题。
These issues are not the IMF’s mission.
这些问题不是国际货币基金组织的使命。
…these areas is crowding out its work on critical macroeconomic issues.
……这些领域正在挤占其在关键宏观经济问题上的工作。
The IMF must be a brutal truth teller and not just to some members.
国际货币基金组织必须是残酷的真相讲述者，而不仅仅是对某些成员国。
Today, the IMF has been whistling past the graveyard.
如今，国际货币基金组织已经呼啸而过。
Its 2024 external sector report was entitled, “Imbalances Receding.” This pollyannaish outlook is symptomatic of an institution more dedicated to preserving the status quo than answering the hard questions.
其 2024 年对外部门报告的标题是“失衡消退”。这种盲目乐观的观点是一个更致力于维持现状而不是回答难题的机构的症状。
Here in the United States, we know we need to get our fiscal house in order.
在美国，我们知道我们需要整顿我们的财政体系。
The last administration ran up the largest peacetime deficit in our nation’s history.
上届政府出现了我国历史上和平时期最大的赤字。
The current administration is committed to fixing this.
现任政府致力于解决这个问题。
We are open to critique, but we will not abide the IMF failing to critique the countries that most need it, principally surplus countries.
我们愿意接受批评，但我们不会容忍国际货币基金组织不批评最需要它的国家，主要是盈余国家。
In line with its core mandate, the IMF needs to call out countries like China that have pursued globally distorted policies and opaque currency practices for many decades.
根据其核心使命，国际货币基金组织需要对像中国这样数十年来奉行全球扭曲政策和不透明货币做法的国家发出警告。
I also expect the IMF to call out unsustainable lending practices by certain creditor countries.
我还预计国际货币基金组织会谴责某些债权国不可持续的贷款做法。
The IMF should push more proactively official bilateral lenders to come to the table early to work with borrower countries to minimize periods of debt distress.
国际货币基金组织应更积极地推动官方双边贷款机构尽早与借款国合作，最大限度地减少债务困境。
The IMF must refocus its lending on addressing balance of payment problems, and its lending should be temporary.
国际货币基金组织必须重新将贷款重点放在解决国际收支问题上，而且其贷款应该是暂时的。
When done responsibly, IMF lending is at the very core of its contribution to the global economy.
如果以负责任的方式开展，国际货币基金组织的贷款将成为其对全球经济贡献的核心。
When markets fail, the IMF steps in and makes resources available.
当市场失灵时，国际货币基金组织就会介入并提供资源。
In exchange, countries implement economic reforms to resolve their balance of payments issues and support economic growth.
作为交换，各国实施经济改革以解决国际收支问题并支持经济增长。
The reforms undertaken during these programs are some of the IMF’s most important contributions to a strong, sustainable, and balanced global economy.
这些计划期间进行的改革是国际货币基金组织对强劲、可持续和平衡的全球经济最重要的贡献之一。
Argentina is a fitting example.
阿根廷就是一个恰当的例子。
I was in Argentina earlier this month to demonstrate the United States’ support for the IMF efforts to help the country reset financially.
本月早些时候，我在阿根廷展示了美国对国际货币基金组织帮助该国财政重建的支持。
Argentina deserves the IMF’s support because the country is making real progress toward meeting financial benchmarks.
阿根廷值得国际货币基金组织的支持，因为该国在达到金融基准方面正在取得切实进展。
But not every country is so deserving.
但并非每个国家都值得如此。
The IMF must hold countries accountable for implementing economic reforms and sometimes, sometimes the IMF needs to say no. The organization has no obligation to lend to countries that fail to implement reforms.
国际货币基金组织必须让各国对实施经济改革负责，有时，有时国际货币基金组织需要说不。该组织没有义务向未能实施改革的国家提供贷款。
Economic stability and growth should be the markers of the IMF’s success, not how much money the institution lends out.
经济稳定和增长应该是国际货币基金组织成功的标志，而不是该机构放贷的金额。
Like the IMF, the World Bank must be made fit for purpose again.
与国际货币基金组织一样，世界银行也必须重新适应其使命。
The World Bank Group helps developing countries grow their economies, reduce poverty, increase private investment support, private sector job creation, and reduce dependence on foreign aid.
世界银行集团帮助发展中国家发展经济、减少贫困、增加私人投资支持、私营部门创造就业机会以及减少对外援的依赖。
It offers transparent and affordable long-term financing for countries to invest in their own development priorities.
它为各国投资于本国发展优先事项提供透明且负担得起的长期融资。
The bank, along with the fund, provides extensive technical support to promote debt sustainability among low-income countries, which empowers those countries to stand up to coercive and opaque lending terms from other creditors.
该银行与该基金一起提供广泛的技术支持，以促进低收入国家的债务可持续性，从而使这些国家能够承受其他债权人的强制性和不透明的贷款条件。
These core functions of the World Bank complement the Trump administration’s efforts to foster safer, stronger, and more prosperous economies in the United States and the world.
世界银行的这些核心职能补充了特朗普政府为促进美国和世界经济更安全、更强大和更繁荣所做的努力。
But the bank, like the IMF, has strayed in certain respects from its initial mission.
但该银行与国际货币基金组织一样，在某些方面偏离了其最初的使命。
The bank should no longer expect blank checks for vapid, buzzword-centric marketing accompanied by half-hearted commitments to reform.
银行不应再指望空头支票来进行乏味、以流行语为中心的营销，同时还对改革做出半心半意的承诺。
As the bank returns to its core mission, it must use its resources as efficiently and effectively as possible, and it must do so in ways that demonstrate tangible values for all member countries.
当世行回归其核心使命时，它必须尽可能高效和有效地利用其资源，并且必须以向所有成员国展示切实价值的方式这样做。
The bank can use its resources more efficiently now by focusing on increasing energy access.
该银行现在可以通过专注于增加能源供应来更有效地利用其资源。
Business leaders the world over identify unreliable power supply as one of the primary impediments to investment.
世界各地的商界领袖都将不可靠的电力供应视为投资的主要障碍之一。
The World Bank and African Development Bank’s Joint Mission 300 initiative to expand energy access to 300 million more people in Africa is a welcome effort.
世界银行和非洲开发银行的联合使命 300 倡议旨在扩大非洲 3 亿人口的能源供应，这是一项值得欢迎的努力。
But the World Bank must respond to countries’ energy priorities and needs and focus on dependable technologies that can sustain economic growth rather than seek to meet distortionary climate finance targets.
但世界银行必须响应各国的能源优先事项和需求，并专注于能够维持经济增长的可靠技术，而不是寻求实现扭曲的气候融资目标。
We applaud the recent announcement that the World Bank will seek to remove prohibitions on support for nuclear energy, which could revolutionize energy supply for many emerging markets.
我们对世界银行最近宣布将寻求取消对核能支持的禁令表示赞赏，这可能会彻底改变许多新兴市场的能源供应。
We encourage the bank to go further in giving countries access to all technologies that can provide affordable baseload generation.
我们鼓励世行进一步让各国获得所有能够提供负担得起的基本负荷发电的技术。
The World Bank must be tech-neutral and prioritize affordability in energy investment.
世界银行必须保持技术中立，并优先考虑能源投资的承受能力。
In most cases, this means investing in gas and other fossil fuel-based energy production.
在大多数情况下，这意味着投资天然气和其他基于化石燃料的能源生产。
In other cases, this may mean investing in renewable energy coupled with systems to help manage the intermittency of wind and solar.
在其他情况下，这可能意味着投资可再生能源以及帮助管理风能和太阳能间歇性的系统。
The history of humanity teaches a simple lesson.
人类历史给了我们一个简单的教训。
Energy abundance sparks economic abundance.
能源丰富引发经济繁荣。
That’s why the bank should encourage an all-of-the-above approach to energy development.
这就是为什么世行应该鼓励采用上述所有方法进行能源开发。
Such an approach will make World Bank financing more effective, and it will reconnect the bank to its core mission of economic growth and poverty alleviation.
这种做法将使世界银行的融资更加有效，并使世界银行重新履行其经济增长和扶贫的核心使命。
In addition to increasing energy access, the World Bank can use its resources more effectively by starting to apply its graduation policy.
除了增加能源获取之外，世界银行还可以通过开始实施毕业政策来更有效地利用其资源。
This would allow the bank to focus on lending to poorer, less credit-worthy countries.
这将使该银行能够专注于向较贫穷、信用较差的国家提供贷款。
This is where World Bank support makes the biggest difference for poverty and growth.
这就是世界银行的支持对贫困和增长产生最大影响的地方。
Instead, the World Bank continues to lend every year to countries that have met the criteria to graduate from World Bank borrowing.
相反，世界银行每年继续向符合摆脱世界银行借款标准的国家提供贷款。
There is no justification for this continued lending.
没有理由继续放贷。
It siphons off resources from higher priorities and crowds out the development of private markets.
它从更重要的优先事项中抽走资源，并排挤私人市场的发展。
It also disincentivizes countries’ efforts to move away from dependency on the World Bank and toward job-rich, private-sector-led growth.
它还阻碍了各国摆脱对世界银行的依赖、转向就业机会丰富、私营部门主导的增长的努力。
Going forward, the bank must set firm graduation timelines for countries that have long since met the graduation criteria.
展望未来，世行必须为早已达到毕业标准的国家制定严格的毕业时间表。
Treating China, the second-largest country in the world, as a developing country is absurd.
将中国这个世界第二大国视为发展中国家是荒谬的。
While it has been at the expense of many Western markets, China’s rise has been rapid and impressive.
尽管中国的崛起以牺牲许多西方市场为代价，但其崛起速度迅速且令人印象深刻。
If China wants to play a role in the global economy commensurate with its actual importance, then the country needs to graduate up.
如果中国想在全球经济中发挥与其实际重要性相称的作用，那么这个国家就需要升级。
We welcome that.
我们对此表示欢迎。
The World Bank should also implement transparent procurement policies based on best value.
世界银行还应实施基于最佳价值的透明采购政策。
It must help countries move away from procurement approaches that prioritize only the lowest-cost bids.
它必须帮助各国摆脱仅优先考虑成本最低投标的采购方式。
Such procurement policies reward distortive and subsidized industrial policies that undermine development.
这种采购政策奖励了破坏发展的扭曲性和补贴性产业政策。
They may also stifle the private sector and incentivize corruption and collusion and result in greater long-term cost.
它们还可能扼杀私营部门并刺激腐败和共谋，并导致更大的长期成本。
Procurement policies based on best value are better from both an efficiency and development perspective, and their robust implementation will benefit the bank and its shareholders.
从效率和发展的角度来看，基于最佳价值的采购政策都更好，其强有力的实施将使银行及其股东受益。
To conclude, I invite our allies to work with us as we rebalance the international financial system, refocus the IMF and World Bank on their founding charters.
最后，我邀请我们的盟友与我们合作，重新平衡国际金融体系，重新将国际货币基金组织和世界银行的重点放在其创始章程上。
America First means we are doubling down on our engagement with the international economic system, including at the IMF and the World Bank.
美国优先意味着我们正在加倍参与国际经济体系，包括国际货币基金组织和世界银行。
A more sustainable economic system will be one that better serves the interests of the United States and all the other participants in the system.
一个更可持续的经济体系将更好地服务于美国和该体系中所有其他参与者的利益。
We look forward to working with all of you in this endeavor.
我们期待与大家共同努力。
Thank you.
谢谢。
Mr. Secretary, thank you for joining us here today, and thank all of you for coming here today.
国务卿先生，感谢您今天来到这里，也感谢你们所有人今天来到这里。
I’m going to point out, you have many great lines in this very meaty and comprehensive set of remarks, but you say, I wish to be clear, America First does not mean America alone.
我要指出的是，在这组内容丰富且全面的言论中，您有很多精彩的台词，但您说，我想澄清的是，“美国优先”并不意味着美国单独存在。
To the contrary, far from stepping back, you seek to expand U.S. leadership in international institutions like the IMF and World Bank.
相反，你们非但没有退缩，反而寻求扩大美国在国际货币基金组织和世界银行等国际机构中的领导地位。
I must say, there’s a collective sigh of relief across this town right now, because the concern coming into this week is that you were going to do exactly what you said you’re not going to do, which is the U.S. withdrawal.
我必须说，现在全城都松了一口气，因为本周的担忧是，你们将完全按照你们所说的那样去做，那就是美国撤军。
But you want to lead.
但你想领导。
What you’re asking for is simply getting back to factory settings, right, focused approach, and deal with the issues that you see are most paramount.
您所要求的只是回到出厂设置，采取正确的、集中的方法，并处理您认为最重要的问题。
Correct?
正确的？
Correct.
正确的。
As I said in my confirmation hearings, I think U.S. engagement with the international financial multilateral institutions, we should engage, and we should be in it to win it for the American people, and for the rest of the countries, and for the client countries.
正如我在确认听证会上所说，我认为美国应该参与国际金融多边机构的参与，我们应该参与其中，为美国人民、其他国家和客户国赢得胜利。
Twenty years ago, a senior U.S. Treasury official gave a speech very similar to this, calling on the IMF and said the IMF was asleep at the wheel and dealing with imbalances.
二十年前，一位美国财政部高级官员发表了与此非常相似的演讲，他呼吁国际货币基金组织，并表示国际货币基金组织在处理失衡问题上睡着了。
Hank Paulson started the Strategic Economic Dialogue with the Chinese.
汉克·保尔森启动了与中国的战略经济对话。
Every Treasury Secretary since then has had an approach.
此后的每一位财政部长都有自己的方法。
So how will you do this differently, and how do you think that you’ll proceed in this approach?
那么您将如何以不同的方式做到这一点，您认为您将如何继续采用这种方法？
What is your philosophy, what is your tools, and how will you execute on this?
你的理念是什么，你的工具是什么，你将如何执行？
Well, look, I think that our move toward reordering the financial or trading system…
好吧，看，我认为我们朝着重新排序金融或贸易体系的方向迈进……
I think that today, as I reaffirm our engagement, but set up a list of core principles and back-to-basics for the institutions, and again, being from the private sector, we want to see results, and we want to see timelines.
我认为，今天，当我重申我们的参与，但为各机构制定了一份核心原则和回归基础的清单时，我们再次来自私营部门，希望看到结果，我们希望看到时间表。
Global rebalancing has been a topic for more than 20 years.
全球再平衡这个话题已经存在了 20 多年。
Some countries may have a hundred year perspective, we don’t.
有些国家可能有百年的眼光，但我们没有。
China, obviously, is an important part of this administration’s form and economic policy.
显然，中国是本届政府形式和经济政策的重要组成部分。
You’ll be meeting with your Chinese counterparts.
您将与中国同行会面。
What will you tell them in the sense of how they, they obviously are aware that there’s huge imbalances, their manufacturing capacity is enormous, especially in things like automobiles.
你会告诉他们什么，他们显然意识到存在巨大的不平衡，他们的制造能力巨大，尤其是在汽车等领域。
How will you help them understand that it’s not just about talking, it’s about executing?
您将如何帮助他们理解这不仅仅是空谈，而是执行？
Well, look, I don’t think I have to help them understand.
好吧，听着，我认为我不必帮助他们理解。
I think they understand very well.
我认为他们非常理解。
And it’s just a matter of impetus and will.
这只是动力和意志的问题。
I believe I first went to Japan in 1990, 1991, within 12 months of the peak of the bubble, a decade of that unwind, a decade of malaise.
我记得我第一次去日本是在 1990 年、1991 年，当时泡沫达到顶峰的 12 个月内，是放松的十年，是萎靡不振的十年。
And then in 2012, I ran across a fellow in 2011, he was running for prime minister named Shinzo Abe, and he knew that Japan needed change and implemented it very quickly.
然后在2012年，我在2011年遇到了一个正在竞选首相的人，名叫安倍晋三，他知道日本需要改变，并且很快就实施了。
Ten years later, more than ten years later, Japan has had a remarkable economic run.
十年过去了，十多年过去了，日本的经济运行取得了令人瞩目的成绩。
I think that our Chinese counterparts will come to this realization.
我想我们的中国同行将会认识到这一点。
And some of our policies, sometimes it takes an external push.
而我们的一些政策，有时候是需要外部推动的。
Alternatively, what I have said previously, there is an opportunity for a big deal here .
或者说，正如我之前所说，这里有一个大交易的机会。
That the US is looking to rebalance to more manufacturing, the identity of that would be less consumption.
美国正在寻求再平衡以增加制造业，其特点是减少消费。
If China is serious on less dependence on export-led manufacturing growth, and a rebalancing toward a domestic economy, I think they use the term dual circulation.
如果中国认真减少对出口导向型制造业增长的依赖，并转向国内经济再平衡，我认为他们会使用“双循环”一词。
Well, right now it’s really singular circulation.
嗯，现在确实是单一循环。
And if they want to rebalance, let’s do it together.
如果他们想重新平衡，让我们一起做。
This is an incredible opportunity.
这是一个难以置信的机会。
And I think if Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio were to write something, he could call it a beautiful rebalancing.
我认为，如果桥水创始人雷·达利奥（Ray Dalio）要写一些东西，他可以称之为美丽的再平衡。
Indeed.
的确。
But a big part of that will also be our own fiscal imbalance.
但其中很大一部分也将是我们自己的财政失衡。
And as you mentioned, we’re running deficit 6% of GDP at the top of the cycle.
正如您提到的，我们在周期顶峰时的赤字占 GDP 的 6%。
Not sustainable, as you yourself have pointed out.
正如您自己所指出的，这是不可持续的。
How important is it to also address our fiscal imbalance as part of this larger rebalancing?
作为更大范围的再平衡的一部分，解决我们的财政失衡问题有多重要？
Well, it’s very important.
嗯，这非常重要。
I think most people in this room are trained economists and everyone knows that a trade deficit emanates from three things.
我认为在座的大多数人都是训练有素的经济学家，每个人都知道贸易逆差源于三件事。
External trade policies, which we are intent on addressing.
我们致力于解决的对外贸易政策。
External trade policies can be tariffs, non-tariff barriers, currency manipulation, and the state subsidy of labor and means of production.
对外贸易政策可以是关税、非关税壁垒、货币操纵以及国家对劳动力和生产资料的补贴。
So terms of trade or trade regulation is one.
因此，贸易条件或贸易监管就是其中之一。
Two is our budget deficit.
二是我们的预算赤字。
So the larger our deficit, the more it creates a demand suck.
因此，我们的赤字越大，就越会造成需求下降。
Also pushes up the interest rates.
也推高了利率。
And then three, the level of the dollar.
第三，美元水平。
The U.S., we continue to have a strong dollar policy and the dollar will adjust based on markets.
美国方面，我们继续实行强势美元政策，美元将根据市场进行调整。
Everyone asks me, well, what does a strong dollar mean?
每个人都问我，强势美元意味着什么？
And to me, the strong dollar means having the policies in place to deserve capital flows and have confidence .
对我来说，强势美元意味着有适当的政策来保证资本流动并有信心。
But it doesn’t mean the price on the Bloomberg screen every day.
但这并不意味着彭博屏幕上每天都会出现的价格。
And it also has different meanings in terms of bilateral prices.
而且就双边价格而言也有不同的含义。
So it’s really three prong.
所以这确实是三管齐下。
But Tim, to your question, I have talked about, we did not get here quickly with the spending.
但是蒂姆，对于你的问题，我已经谈到了，我们并没有很快就支出到位。
The U.S. does not have a revenue problem.
美国不存在收入问题。
We have a spending problem.
我们有一个支出问题。
And I have suggested, when I first met President Trump to talk about joining his campaign two years ago, that we need to get back to a long-term, sustainable budget deficit, something with the three in front of it, which works.
两年前，当我第一次会见特朗普总统并讨论加入他的竞选活动时，我曾建议，我们需要回到长期、可持续的预算赤字，前面三项都行得通的做法。
We have 2% nominal growth, or 2% inflation, projected 1.8% growth, which I think could be much higher if we implement our economic policies.
我们的名义增长率为 2%，即通货膨胀率为 2%，预计增长率为 1.8%，我认为如果我们实施我们的经济政策，这一数字可能会更高。
You reaffirmed the strong dollar policy first articulated by Bob Rubin.
您重申了鲍勃·鲁宾首先提出的强势美元政策。
Valerie Giscard d’Estaing in the 1960s talked about U.S. exorbitant privilege of the dollar.
20 世纪 60 年代的瓦莱丽·吉斯卡尔·德斯坦 (Valerie Giscard d’Estaing) 谈到了美国对美元的过度特权。
There are some in this town who question that privilege and actually see it as a burden.
这个镇上有些人质疑这种特权，实际上将其视为一种负担。
Do you see it as a privilege?
你认为这是一种特权吗？
That the U.S. sits at the center of the global economy is enabled by the use of dollars and that it’s natural that the usage would come down over time.
美国之所以能处于全球经济的中心，是因为美元的使用，随着时间的推移，美元的使用量自然会下降。
And I think that the U.S. will always, for my lifetime, be the reserve currency .
我认为在我的一生中，美国将永远是储备货币。
I actually am not sure that anyone else wants it.
事实上我不确定其他人是否想要它。
I can’t remember.
我不记得了。
One of the European officials said today, maybe it was Mr. de Guindos, I can’t remember, said, oh, well, the euro could become a second reserve currency.
今天一位欧洲官员说，也许是 de Guindos 先生，我记不清了，他说，哦，好吧，欧元可以成为第二种储备货币。
Well, we’ve just had a substantial appreciation in the euro for export economies.
嗯，对于出口经济体来说，欧元刚刚大幅升值。
It’s a lot of pressure.
压力很大。
And look, I think that the reaffirming our belief in these international institutions is also part of that.
我认为重申我们对这些国际机构的信念也是其中的一部分。
You mentioned the euro.
你提到了欧元。
You mentioned in your comments Mario Draghi’s report from last year.
您在评论中提到了马里奥·德拉吉去年的报告。
There was the letter report before that.
之前有信函报道。
I’ve been spending a lot of time in Europe.
我在欧洲呆了很多时间。
There does seem to be a much more buoyant atmosphere in Europe.
欧洲的气氛似乎确实活跃得多。
They see this as an opportunity for them.
他们认为这对他们来说是一个机会。
I said something about a possible renaissance.
我谈到了可能的复兴。
I was heckled a bit, but I actually am pretty positive on Europe.
我有点被质问，但实际上我对欧洲相当乐观。
Do you think this is an opportunity to shift some of that demand?
您认为这是改变部分需求的机会吗？
The world has relied on U.S. final demand to shift some of that demand for Europe.
世界一直依赖美国的最终需求将部分需求转移到欧洲。
Is this a positive time for Europe?
这对欧洲来说是一个积极的时刻吗？
Look, I think it can be.
你看，我想是可以的。
And it wasn’t in a straight line.
而且它不是在一条直线上。
It wasn’t always the way a trained diplomat would have done.
训练有素的外交官并不总是这样做的。
But I think we should all congratulate President Trump.
但我认为我们都应该祝贺特朗普总统。
He has done what a succession of European leaders have tried to do for the past 26 years since the advent of the euro , that whether it’s the French, the Italians, other European countries have tried to get Germany to increase their fiscal spend and drive the European economy.
他做了自欧元问世以来过去26年里一系列欧洲领导人一直试图做的事情，无论是法国、意大利还是其他欧洲国家都试图让德国增加财政支出并推动欧洲经济。
And I applaud these nascent efforts because it’s a combination.
我对这些新生的努力表示赞赏，因为它是一个组合。
It’s a combination of economic stimulus and it is a combination of burden sharing on the European continent for defense.
这是经济刺激的结合，也是欧洲大陆分担国防负担的结合。
And as I said many times before, economic security is national security.
正如我之前多次说过的，经济安全就是国家安全。
National security is economic security .
国家安全就是经济安全。
So if this European plan works, I applaud it.
因此，如果这个欧洲计划奏效，我会鼓掌。
I had a private meeting with the Spanish finance minister last week, two weeks ago, and he said you’re going to be pleasantly surprised with where we go on military spending.
两周前，上周我与西班牙财政部长举行了一次私人会议，他说你会对我们的军费开支情况感到惊喜。
And this 2% number today, he was right.
今天这个 2% 的数字，他是对的。
So you’re already taking on these tasks.
所以你已经在承担这些任务了。
You have China, more consumption, less investment deal with their manufacturing access capacity.
中国有更多的消费、更少的投资来应对他们的制造准入能力。
Europe’s a great opportunity.
欧洲是一个很好的机会。
The U.S. rebalancing here including on fiscal.
美国的再平衡包括财政方面的再平衡。
So what do you want the IMF to do?
那么您希望国际货币基金组织做什么？
What would you like to hear from Kristalina over the next couple of days or the board in a new direction?
在接下来的几天里，您希望从 Kristalina 或董事会的新方向听到什么消息？
Again, back to factory settings direction.
再次回到出厂设置方向。
What do you want to hear from them?
您想从他们那里听到什么？
Again, I think it’s just been mission creep and just occasionally you have to trim your garden when the weeds grow.
再说一次，我认为这只是任务的蔓延，只是偶尔你必须在杂草生长时修剪你的花园。
And I think that it’s back to basics.
我认为这又回到了基础。
What are our priorities and how are we going to judge success?
我们的优先事项是什么以及我们如何判断成功？
And the World Bank you discussed about graduating the medium-sized countries that should have graduated some time ago.
还有世界银行，你讨论过让中等国家毕业，这些国家早就应该毕业了。
That changes the commercial model of the World Bank.
这改变了世界银行的商业模式。
But obviously you think that’s important.
但显然你认为这很重要。
They need to be graduated.
他们需要毕业。
Yes.
是的。
I mean, it’s just as President Trump says, it’s common sense that you can’t have the second largest economy in the world.
我的意思是，正如特朗普总统所说，你不可能拥有世界第二大经济体，这是常识。
And it’s as I said in my speech, I applaud their rapid growth, but you don’t get both.
正如我在演讲中所说，我对他们的快速增长表示赞赏，但你无法两者兼得。
I’m a teenager who sometimes wants to be treated like a child, sometimes wants to be treated like an adult.
我是一个青少年，有时希望被当作孩子一样对待，有时又希望被当作成年人对待。
I got one of those too.
我也得到了其中之一。
It’s an adult economy.
这是成人经济。
You mentioned energy, specifically nuclear, during the campaign.
您在竞选期间提到了能源，特别是核能。
And since you’ve become Secretary, you’ve talked about energy production is one of your important legs.
自从您成为国务卿以来，您谈到能源生产是您的重要支柱之一。
The U.S. produces about 13 million barrels of oil a day, the largest producer in the world.
美国每天生产约1300万桶石油，是世界上最大的生产国。
What more do we need to do here?
我们还需要在这里做什么？
And how can the World Bank, what do they need to do more to encourage fossil fuels as well as nuclear and I assume all the above?
世界银行如何才能，他们需要做更多的事情来鼓励化石燃料和核能，我假设以上所有？
Look, the sine qua non for economic growth is energy abundance .
看来，经济增长的必要条件是能源充足。
And we need to drive the right combination of the crawl, walk, run for these countries in charge in terms of sustainable production.
我们需要为这些在可持续生产方面负责的国家推动正确的爬行、步行和跑步组合。
But by sustainable, I mean robust and baseload, not what I would call almost a luxury belief that we…
但我所说的可持续，是指稳健和基本负载，而不是我所说的几乎是一种奢侈的信念，即我们……
They are worried about pumping water.
他们担心抽水。
They are worried about heating their homes, running their hospitals.
他们担心房屋供暖、医院运营。
And we’ve seen that the intermittency doesn’t work.
我们已经看到间歇性不起作用。
Even in middle developed countries, maybe like South Africa, that seems to have rolling blackouts.
即使在中等发达国家，比如南非，似乎也实行轮流停电。
So that’s not a model.
所以这不是一个模型。
We want to have a model of strong baseload and then bolting on the alternative production as opposed to beginning with alternative production and then having this latency or intermittency that makes it impossible to industrialize.
我们希望拥有一个强大的基本负载模型，然后使用替代生产，而不是从替代生产开始，然后出现延迟或间歇性，从而无法实现工业化。
In the final minute or two, let me just turn to financial intermediation.
在最后一两分钟，让我谈谈金融中介。
You know, there’s a famous adage that capitalism without capital is just another ism.
你知道，有一句著名的格言：没有资本的资本主义只是另一种主义。
The institutions you see here are important intermediaries both in the capital markets and in other forms of financial intermediation.
您在这里看到的机构是资本市场和其他形式的金融中介中的重要中介机构。
What is your vision, especially for the U.S., in terms of financial regulation?
您在金融监管方面的愿景是什么，特别是对美国而言？
What do you want the industry to look like?
您希望这个行业是什么样子？
Obviously, the capital markets of the U.S. is a crown jewel of this economy.
显然，美国的资本市场是这个经济皇冠上的明珠。
How should we encourage that not only here but abroad?
我们应该如何不仅在国内而且在国外鼓励这种做法？
Well, I think that I’ve been getting a lot of questions on private credit.
嗯，我想我收到了很多关于私人信贷的问题。
And I think that private credit is an interesting addition to the U.S. mosaic.
我认为私人信贷是美国马赛克的一个有趣的补充。
And it is the depth and breadth of our capital and credit markets that powers the U.S. economy.
正是我们资本和信贷市场的深度和广度为美国经济提供了动力。
And it’s the innovation there.
这就是那里的创新。
I think that private credit’s a very new and interesting part.
我认为私人信贷是一个非常新且有趣的部分。
But it is happening outside of the regulated ecosystem.
但它发生在受监管的生态系统之外。
And I always like to say, I’m not an economist.
我总是喜欢说，我不是经济学家。
I’m an economic historian.
我是一名经济历史学家。
And I think that is a distortion of the system.
我认为这是对系统的扭曲。
And it tells me that the post-2008 regulatory corset is too tight on the regulated institutions.
它告诉我，2008年后的监管束缚对受监管机构来说太紧了。
And we want to deregulate them or make them more able to provide the opportunity to lend to the American economy and perhaps into the international economy in a smart, safe, and sound way.
我们希望放松对它们的管制，或者让它们更有能力以明智、安全和稳健的方式向美国经济甚至国际经济提供贷款。
As we’ve seen, the history of financial crises is an overreaction on one side.
正如我们所看到的，金融危机的历史一方面是过度反应。
And I think that we had a regulatory overreaction.
我认为我们的监管反应过度了。
I convened something in the U.S. called FSTOC, the Financial Stability Oversight Council, which convenes the regulators.
我在美国召集了一个名为 FSTOC（金融稳定监督委员会）的组织，该委员会负责召集监管机构。
And I think through partnership with the three U.S. banking regulators, Federal Reserve, Controller of the Currency, and the FDIC, we can come up with a system that makes the regulated financial system prosper again.
我认为，通过与美国三个银行监管机构——美联储、货币监管机构和联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）的合作，我们可以制定一个让受监管的金融体系再次繁荣的体系。
And what the U.S. has that is different than most other G7 countries is just the number of financial institutions.
美国与大多数其他七国集团国家的不同之处只是金融机构的数量。
We don’t have five big banks, three big banks.
我们没有五家大银行、三大银行。
And in the U.S., the community and small banks, which provide 70% of agricultural lending, 40% of small business lending, 40% of real estate lending.
在美国，社区和小型银行提供了 70% 的农业贷款、40% 的小企业贷款、40% 的房地产贷款。
And in the U.S., we’ve had this incredible boom on Wall Street.
在美国，华尔街经历了令人难以置信的繁荣。
I think Wall Street can continue doing well.
我认为华尔街可以继续表现良好。
But I think it’s Main Street’s turn to share in the prosperity.
但我认为现在轮到大街分享繁荣了。
And I think it was the pullback by the small banks, the opposed to GFC, that’s kind of created this stagnation on Main Street.
我认为正是小银行的撤退，反对全球金融危机，在某种程度上造成了大街上的停滞。
And we’re determined to fix that.
我们决心解决这个问题。
Mr. Secretary, I always say Treasury is the sober voice of reason.
国务卿先生，我总是说财政部是理性的清醒声音。
What we’ve heard today from you is a sober voice of reason.
今天我们从您那里听到的是清醒的理性声音。
We wish you all the best.
我们祝您一切顺利。
Ladies and gentlemen, a round of applause for Treasury Secretary.
女士们、先生们，请为财政部长鼓掌。