“What You Need To Know About The $22 Trillion National Debt”: The Alternative Interview

Steven Rattner’s opinion piece in the New York Times and Furman’s interview on National Public Radio are perfect examples of the ideas that MMT want to debunk.

史蒂文·拉特纳在《纽约时报》上发表的评论文章和弗曼在国家公共广播电台上的采访都是现代货币理论想要揭穿的想法的完美例子。

Deficits are not normal; deficits crowd out private investment; the public debt is a burden on our grandchildren; our ability to respond to societal problems is limited by the fact that the US government does not have enough money to confront them.

赤字是不正常的；赤字挤出私人投资；公共债务是我们子孙后代的负担；我们应对社会问题的能力受到美国政府没有足够资金来应对这些问题的限制。

Below is an alternative interview to the Furman’s interview that reviews these points.

以下是弗曼采访的另一篇采访，回顾了这些观点。

This blog will run like a traditional interview and all the evidence for the points made are in appendices at the end (Dear Ms. Cornish, I hope you will forgive me but I will plagiarize you entirely for the sake of this exercise).

这个博客将像传统的采访一样运行，所有观点的证据都在最后的附录中（亲爱的康沃尔女士，我希望你能原谅我，但为了这个练习，我将完全抄袭你）。

The national debt surpassed $22 trillion this week – a new record – and this despite candidate Donald Trump’s promise to reduce U.S. debt once he became president.

尽管候选人唐纳德·特朗普承诺在就任总统后减少美国债务，但本周国家债务仍超过 22 万亿美元，创下新纪录。

There was a time when the soaring national debt caused panic in Washington.

曾经一度飙升的国债在华盛顿引发恐慌。

Now it’s mostly crickets, at least from the officials who have control over the federal budget.

现在主要是蟋蟀，至少来自控制联邦预算的官员。

So what’s changed?

那么发生了什么变化呢？

We’re going to ask Eric Tymoigne.

我们要问埃里克·蒂莫瓦尼。

He is an associate professor of economics at Lewis & Clark College.

他是刘易斯与克拉克学院的经济学副教授。

His works shows that one must make a crucial distinction between monetarily sovereign and non-monetarily sovereign governments when discussing issues surrounding the public debt and fiscal deficits.

他的著作表明，在讨论公共债务和财政赤字问题时，必须对货币主权政府和非货币主权政府做出关键区分。

Regarding the context of your question, I don’t think anything has changed in terms of the hysteria surrounding the public debt.

关于你问题的背景，我认为围绕公共债务的歇斯底里没有任何改变。

Since 1789, when the US Treasury was established, pundits, journalists, Treasury officials, and/or politicians, among others, have all sounded the alarm about the threats posed by a growing public debt.

自 1789 年美国财政部成立以来，专家、记者、财政部官员和/或政治家等都对不断增长的公共债务所带来的威胁发出了警报。

This interview is just the latest example of such daily mass hysteria.

这次采访只是这种日常集体歇斯底里的最新例子。

Yes, politicians are currently less vocal about it, but many others have taken their place.

是的，政客们目前对此的声音较少，但许多其他人已经取代了他们的位置。

This hysteria has been so strong that it has led to inaction, or inadequate responses, to the problem of our times.

这种歇斯底里的情绪如此强烈，以至于导致我们对我们这个时代的问题无所作为或反应不充分。

Politicians are so focused on the debt number that they lose sight of the issues at hand.

政客们过于关注债务数量，以至于忽视了眼前的问题。

For example, the misplaced fear about the upcoming insolvency of the social security system has reduced our leaders’ ability to response to the challenges of an aging society.

例如，对社会保障体系即将破产的错误担忧降低了我们领导人应对老龄化社会挑战的能力。

Only the will to go to war provides strong enough of a motive to leave the debt concern aside.

只有发动战争的意愿才能提供足够强大的动机来抛开债务担忧。

In the mind of our political leaders, worries about climate change, poverty, unemployment, healthcare, childcare or any other socio-economic issue have always been secondary to worries about the public debt.

在我们的政治领导人看来，对气候变化、贫困、失业、医疗保健、儿童保育或任何其他社会经济问题的担忧一直排在对公共债务的担忧之后。

Regarding your question, there are several reasons why one needs not to be fixated on, and worried about, the size of the public debt.

关于你的问题，有几个原因可以解释为什么人们不需要关注和担心公共债务的规模。

First, Treasury securities (one type of IOUs included in the public debt) provide to the non-federal sectors (such as households, firms, pension funds, state governments and foreigners) a means to accumulate financial wealth in a safe way.

首先，国债（公共债务中包含的欠条的一种）为非联邦部门（例如家庭、公司、养老基金、州政府和外国人）提供了一种以安全方式积累金融财富的手段。

Treasury securities are also the backbone of the financial system.

国债也是金融体系的支柱。

They serve as safe collateral and are a crucial means to meet the requirements of financial regulations.

它们是安全的抵押品，是满足金融监管要求的重要手段。

Second, one should worry about the public debt only if it negatively influenced economic variables such as economic growth, inflation, tax rates, or interest rates.

其次，只有当公共债务对经济增长、通货膨胀、税率或利率等经济变量产生负面影响时，人们才应该担心公共债务。

The evidence of that are scant despite the broken records continuously played by those who promote hysteria about the public debt.

尽管那些鼓吹对公共债务歇斯底里的人不断地打破记录，但这方面的证据却很少。

For example, some argues that the current situation is special because we have a high public debt and low interest rate; this situation is the norm.

例如，有人认为目前的情况很特殊，因为我们公共债务高、利率低；这种情况是常态。

There is no relationship between the fiscal position (deficit, balanced budget or surplus) of the US government and interest rates, none.

美国政府的财政状况（赤字、平衡预算或盈余）与利率之间没有关系，没有关系。

Interest rates are not driven by fiscal policy matters.

利率不受财政政策问题驱动。

They are driven almost entirely by the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve ( Appendix 2 ).

它们几乎完全由美联储的货币政策驱动（附录 2）。

The crowding out does not exist.

排挤是不存在的。

In terms of economic growth, the greater involvement of the US government in the economy has not generated a decline in economic growth.

从经济增长来看，美国政府加大对经济的干预并没有造成经济增长的下滑。

However, the greater involvement of the government has considerably reduced the volatility of economic growth by sustaining the income of the private sector.

然而，政府的更多参与通过维持私营部门的收入而大大减少了经济增长的波动性。

The economy has recorded fewer contractions; contractions have been much milder, much less lengthy, and more spaced ( Appendix 3 ).

经济收缩有所减少；宫缩变得更加温和，时间也更短，间隔也更大（附录 3）。

In terms of tax rates, the public debt will never be repaid.

就税率而言，公共债务永远无法偿还。

We have not been burdened with higher tax rates to repay the public debt created at the time of our grandparents; our children and grandchildren won’t be burdened by higher tax rates to repay the public debt created today.

我们并没有承受更高的税率来偿还我们祖父母时代创造的公共债务；我们的子孙不会承受更高税率的负担来偿还今天产生的公共债务。

We may raise tax rates in the future but not with the goal of repaying the public debt.

我们未来可能会提高税率，但目的不是偿还公共债务。

There is no reason to do so, and doing so would be harmful to the finances of households, banks, firms and other for the reasons I just provided.

没有理由这样做，而且出于我刚才提供的原因，这样做会对家庭、银行、公司和其他方面的财务造成损害。

The public debt will keep piling up to accommodate the needs of our growing economy and the US government will keep paying it on time.

公共债务将不断增加，以满足我们不断增长的经济的需求，美国政府将继续按时偿还债务。

The US government does not, has never, and ought not to, manage the public debt in the same way you and I manage our private debts.

美国政府现在、过去、也不应该以你我管理私人债务的方式管理公共债务。

It is incorrect to analyze the finances of the US government by taking household or business finances as a point of reference.

以家庭或企业财务为参考来分析美国政府的财政是不正确的。

Public and private debts are totally different animals when a monetarily sovereign government is involved.

当涉及货币主权政府时，公共债务和私人债务是完全不同的动物。

TYMOIGNE.

蒂莫瓦涅。

Nothing has changed.

一切都没有改变。

As usual, fiscal deficits (government spending larger than taxes) are a boost to the saving of the domestic private sector, state and local governments, and the rest of the world.

与往常一样，财政赤字（政府支出大于税收）会促进国内私营部门、州和地方政府以及世界其他地区的储蓄。

In the short run, deficits sustain private incomes by injecting more money in the economy than they remove through taxes.

从短期来看，赤字通过向经济注入的资金多于通过税收消除的资金来维持私人收入。

Deficits help to sustain private investment by stabilizing the profit of businesses.

赤字有助于稳定企业利润，从而维持私人投资。

Expected sales, not interest rates, are the main driver of business investment and fiscal deficits boost the sales of businesses while having a negligible impact on the cost of credit.

预期销售而非利率是商业投资的主要驱动力，财政赤字促进了企业销售，同时对信贷成本的影响可以忽略不计。

In the long run, deficits translate into the public debt that provides a reliable source of net wealth to non-federal sectors as I just explained.

从长远来看，赤字转化为公共债务，为非联邦部门提供可靠的净财富来源，正如我刚才所解释的。

If I had to cite one issue that I have regarding the public debt, it is with regard to the change in the structure of ownership of the public debt.

如果我必须列举一个关于公共债务的问题，那就是公共债务所有权结构的变化。

On one side, foreign holders have owned a growing proportion of the public debt since the 1970s; mostly via ownership through foreign central banks, foreign Treasuries, and other official institutions.

一方面，自 20 世纪 70 年代以来，外国持有人所拥有的公共债务比例不断增加；主要是通过外国中央银行、外国财政部和其他官方机构的所有权。

This reflects the growing role of the US dollar in the international economy.

这反映出美元在国际经济中的作用日益增强。

On the other side, households and non-financial companies have recorded a major decline in their share of ownership of the public debt.

另一方面，家庭和非金融公司的公共债务所有权份额大幅下降。

The worry here is not that the US Treasury is more and more dependent on foreigners to finance its expenses; it is not.

这里令人担忧的并不是美国财政部越来越依赖外国人为其开支提供资金；而是美国财政部越来越依赖外国人来为其开支提供资金。它不是。

Instead, the US Treasury does foreigners a favor by being willing to exchange their non-interest earning dollars into interest-earning dollars.

相反，美国财政部愿意将非生息美元兑换成生息美元，从而为外国人提供了帮助。

The worry is that this change of ownership has reoriented the interest payments on the public debt away from the domestic economy, where it boosts private income, toward the rest of the world.

令人担忧的是，这种所有权的变化已经将公共债务的利息支付从增加私人收入的国内经济转向了世界其他地区。

This unfortunate change creates a drag on economic growth and the growth of domestic private wealth ( Appendix 4 ).

这一不幸的变化对经济增长和国内私人财富的增长造成了拖累（附录4）。

TYMOIGNE.

蒂莫瓦涅。

The main reason the US Treasury runs a deficit is not deliberate reckless policies or politicians who do not know how to put the US government finances in order.

美国财政部出现赤字的主要原因不是故意鲁莽的政策，也不是政客不知道如何整理美国政府的财政。

The US government actually has little control over the size of its expenditures and revenues.

美国政府实际上对其支出和收入的规模几乎没有控制权。

Tax revenues are heavily influenced by the income earned by the domestic private sector and this fluctuates widely with the business cycle.

税收收入很大程度上受到国内私营部门收入的影响，并且随着商业周期的变化而大幅波动。

For a given tax structure, that sets the tax rate on each income level, the US Treasury is highly dependent on the vagaries of the economy for its tax revenues.

对于给定每个收入水平的税率的税收结构来说，美国财政部的税收收入高度依赖于经济的变化。

In an economic expansion, tax revenues rise quickly because private sector income rises.

在经济扩张中，由于私营部门收入增加，税收收入迅速增加。

In a recession, tax revenues fall quickly because private sector income falls.

在经济衰退期间，由于私营部门收入下降，税收收入迅速下降。

In terms of government expenditures, a large portion of them is set by legal requirements (social security, Medicare, etc.) ( Appendix 5 ).

就政府支出而言，其中很大一部分是根据法律要求（社会保障、医疗保险等）确定的（附录5）。

Of course, this begs the question of what, if not the US government, determines the size of the fiscal position and so the growth of the public debt.

当然，这就引出了一个问题：如果不是美国政府，那么是什么决定了财政状况的规模以及公共债务的增长。

The main drivers are the desire of other economic sectors to accumulate financial wealth.

主要驱动力是其他经济部门积累金融财富的愿望。

Deficits inject income in the domestic private sector and the foreign sector.

赤字为国内私营部门和外国部门注入收入。

Usually these sectors desire to save some of that extra income.

通常这些部门希望节省一些额外收入。

They desire to do so because it provides them financial flexibility and because they have retirement needs, educational needs, among others.

他们希望这样做，因为这为他们提供了财务灵活性，并且因为他们有退休需求、教育需求等。

At the macroeconomic level, not all economic sectors can record a surplus at the same time, at least one of them must be in deficit for the others to be in surplus.

从宏观经济层面看，并非所有经济部门都能同时实现顺差，至少必须有一个部门出现赤字，其他部门才能出现盈余。

There is actually a macroeconomic accounting identity that shows this, but I won’t go into it in this interview.

实际上有一个宏观经济会计恒等式可以证明这一点，但我不会在这次采访中详细讨论它。

The central implication of that accounting identity is that at least the domestic private sector, or the government sector, or the foreign sector must be in deficit if one of the other sector is in surplus.

这一会计恒等式的核心含义是，如果其他部门之一出现盈余，那么至少国内私营部门、政府部门或外国部门必定出现赤字。

In the case of the United States, the domestic private sector and the foreign sector want a surplus.

就美国而言，国内私营部门和外国部门都希望获得盈余。

They record a surplus; therefore, the government sector must record a deficit ( Appendix 6 ).

他们记录了盈余；因此，政府部门必须记录赤字（附录6）。

In other words, fiscal deficits are a normal state of affairs for the US government.

换句话说，财政赤字是美国政府的常态。

They have been so for decades.

几十年来他们一直如此。

This is the norm in the United States and throughout the world.

这是美国乃至全世界的常态。

Get over it.

克服它。

So no, the government should not proactively try to reduce its fiscal deficit and repay its public debt.

因此，政府不应该主动尝试减少财政赤字和偿还公共债务。

The government should let it fiscal positions be whatever it needs to be in order to accommodate the desires of the other sectors to improve their financial standing.

政府应该让它的财政状况达到所需的任何程度，以适应其他部门改善其财务状况的愿望。

Going against the desired surplus of the non-government sectors will only result in a recession.

违背非政府部门所期望的盈余只会导致经济衰退。

TYMOIGNE.

蒂莫瓦涅。

Again, the fiscal position will adjust to the needs of the economy.

同样，财政状况将根据经济的需要进行调整。

We should forget altogether about the fiscal position and the public debt and pay attention to the real issues.

我们应该完全忘记财政状况和公共债务，关注真正的问题。

In that case, the tax law was a major issue in the sense that it has provided massive permanent tax breaks to income categories that do not need them.

在这种情况下，税法是一个重大问题，因为它为不需要的收入类别提供了大规模的永久性税收减免。

In that sense, we are moving in the wrong direction because we are reinforcing income and wealth inequalities that are already extremely high.

从这个意义上说，我们正朝着错误的方向前进，因为我们正在加剧已经非常严重的收入和财富不平等。

The new tax law perpetuates and encourages the rise of dynasties that already have overwhelming influences on our socio-eco-political life.

新税法延续并鼓励了那些已经对我们的社会生态政治生活产生压倒性影响的王朝的崛起。

TYMOIGNE.

蒂莫瓦涅。

The national debt is not an indicator of our long-term economic health.

国债并不是我们长期经济健康状况的指标。

The public debt can always be repaid.

公共债务总是可以偿还的。

Analysts who acknowledge that the US government is monetarily sovereign have long understood that there is zero probability of default on the public debt ( Appendix 7 ).

承认美国政府具有货币主权的分析人士很早就明白，公共债务违约的可能性为零（附录7）。

The US government cannot be forced to default on its public debt.

美国政府不能被迫拖欠其公共债务。

This, of course, does not mean that we ought to repay the debt at once by “printing money”; this is a silly conclusion.

当然，这并不意味着我们应该立即通过“印钞票”来偿还债务；这是一个愚蠢的结论。

That would be massively inflationary and I already stated that it is in nobody’s interest to repay the public debt and we won’t.

这将导致严重的通货膨胀，我已经说过，偿还公共债务不符合任何人的利益，我们也不会这样做。

What monetary sovereignty means is that the US government has control over the cost of its public debt, that it can decide what type of debt to offer to other sectors, and that government has the financial flexibility to spend on whatever its society decided is the public purpose.

货币主权意味着美国政府可以控制其公共债务的成本，可以决定向其他部门提供何种类型的债务，并且政府具有财务灵活性，可以将其支出用于社会决定的任何公共目的。

The government is not dependent on China’s willingness to purchase US Treasuries, and bond vigilantes don’t dictate the cost of debt ( Appendix 2 ).

政府不依赖于中国购买美国国债的意愿，债券维护者也不决定债务成本（附录2）。

The public debt is not managed like a private debt.

公共债务的管理方式与私人债务不同。

Its growth and structure (proportion of short-term IOUs vs long-term IOUs) are managed to accommodate the needs of the economy rather than to prevent bankruptcy.

其增长和结构（短期借条与长期借条的比例）旨在适应经济的需求，而不是防止破产。

If other sectors want to hold more public debt, the US government issues more.

如果其他部门想要持有更多公共债务，美国政府就会发行更多债务。

If other sectors want more long-term securities instead of short-term securities, the US government accommodates even if the interest rate is higher.

如果其他部门想要更多的长期证券而不是短期证券，即使利率更高，美国政府也会满足。

If other sectors want to hold less public debt, the US government fiscal position turns into a surplus.

如果其他部门希望持有更少的公共债务，美国政府的财政状况就会变成盈余。

For example, if foreigners decide they do not want to hold US dollars assets, they can try to dump them quickly (which would negatively impact them) or they can start buying more goods and services from the US than they sell to the US.

例如，如果外国人决定不想持有美元资产，他们可以尝试快速抛售这些资产（这会对他们产生负面影响），或者他们可以开始从美国购买比向美国出售的商品和服务更多的商品和服务。

In the second case, the US government fiscal position will move toward a surplus in order to accommodate the will of the foreign sector to be in deficit with the US.

在第二种情况下，美国政府的财政状况将走向盈余，以适应外国部门对美国出现赤字的意愿。

A few countries, mostly in Scandinavia recently, are in a similar situation.

一些国家，尤其是最近在斯堪的纳维亚半岛的国家，也面临着类似的情况。

This is an unusual case.

这是一个不寻常的案例。

As long as the cost of public debt stays low relative to the growth of the economy, the public debt will not explode relative to the size of the economy.

只要公共债务成本相对于经济增长保持在较低水平，公共债务相对于经济规模就不会爆炸。

The usual case is that the interest rate on the public debt is below the growth rate of the economy, precisely because a monetarily sovereign government has a strong control over that interest rate.

通常的情况是公共债务利率低于经济增长率，正是因为货币主权政府对该利率有强有力的控制。

Olivier Blanchard recently received a lot of attention for making that point, but it has been made for a long time by other economists such as, for example, Scott Fullwiler .

奥利维尔·布兰查德 (Olivier Blanchard) 最近因提出这一观点而受到广泛关注，但其他经济学家（例如斯科特·福尔维勒 (Scott Fullwiler)）长期以来一直在提出这一观点。

What are indicators of health for our economy?

我们经济的健康指标是什么？

Standard of living, life expectancy, literacy rate, availability and quality of childcare and healthcare, are major indicators.

生活水平、预期寿命、识字率、儿童保育和医疗保健的可用性和质量是主要指标。

Low unemployment, moderate income and wealth inequalities that encourage individual initiatives, quality infrastructures that accommodate the needs of the society, and environmental sustainability are others.

其他因素包括低失业率、鼓励个人主动性的适度收入和财富不平等、满足社会需求的优质基础设施以及环境可持续性。

We are failing on a number of these indicators of economic health.

我们在许多经济健康指标方面都表现不佳。

Take a look at the crumbling state of our infrastructures that requires trillions of dollars to be brought back up to standard.

看看我们的基础设施摇摇欲坠的状况，需要数万亿美元才能恢复到标准。

Today the greatest threat is environmental sustainability, not only in terms of climate change, but also in terms of the sustainability of our consumption-oriented society.

今天最大的威胁是环境的可持续性，不仅是在气候变化方面，而且是在我们以消费为导向的社会的可持续性方面。

This problem is so large that it directly threatens human existence.

这个问题太大了，直接威胁到人类的生存。

Since the 1970s at least, species have been dying left and right at an accelerating rate; environmental systems are collapsing rapidly; and yet very little is done.

至少自 20 世纪 70 年代以来，物种的灭绝速度一直在加快。环境系统正在迅速崩溃；但我们所做的却很少。

A Green New Deal would be a good start but much more would be needed in the US and abroad.

绿色新政将是一个良好的开端，但美国和海外还需要更多的努力。

Responding effectively to these pressing issues will require massive government spending, and generate a rapid increase in the public debt, here and abroad.

有效应对这些紧迫问题需要大量政府支出，并导致国内外公共债务迅速增加。

We did it during World War Two, we can do it again.

我们在第二次世界大战期间做到了，我们可以再做一次。

The question you have to ask yourself is if tackling these issues is more important than a number on a spreadsheet.

您必须问自己的问题是，解决这些问题是否比电子表格上的数字更重要。

While solving these issues may require sacrifice in terms of productive resources, especially if a rapid reengineering of our economy is required (which it is for some issues), it will not require a sacrifice in financial terms for the US government and our grandchildren.

虽然解决这些问题可能需要牺牲生产资源，特别是如果需要对我们的经济进行快速重新设计（对于某些问题来说是这样），但对于美国政府和我们的子孙来说，这不需要在财政方面做出牺牲。

What is productively possible is always financially possible for a monetarily sovereign government.

对于货币主权政府来说，生产上可能的事情在财务上总是可能的。

We may have to declare War on Climate Change for people to realize that.

我们可能必须向气候变化宣战，人们才能意识到这一点。

Appendix 1.

附录一。

Change to Gross Public Debt relative to GDP: 1791-2018

公共债务总额相对于 GDP 的变化：1791-2018

Three major wars (War of 1812, Civil War and World War I) caused unusually rapid increases in the public debt, but otherwise the public debt grew slowing or declined.

三场重大战争（1812年战争、内战和第一次世界大战）导致公共债务异常迅速增加，但除此之外公共债务增长放缓或下降。

Since the Great Depression, the public debt has mostly gone up with only five recorded declines (1947-49, 1951, 1956-57).

自大萧条以来，公共债务大多上升，仅出现五次下降（1947-49 年、1951 年、1956-57 年）。

Major wars (World War Two, Vietnam War, War on Terror) have rapidly increased the public debt, but sizeable increases have become a permanent feature of the post-1920s period.

重大战争（第二次世界大战、越南战争、反恐战争）使公共债务迅速增加，但大幅增加已成为 20 年代后的一个永久特征。

Figure 1.

图 1.

Change to Gross Public Debt relative to GDP: 1791-2018 Sources: Treasury Direct ( https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt.htm ), Government Info ( https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/BUDGET-2019-TAB/BUDGET-2019-TAB-8-1 ), Bureau of Economic Analysis (Nominal GDP).

公共债务总额相对于 GDP 的变化：1791-2018 资料来源：财政部直接 ( https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/histdebt/histdebt.htm )、政府信息 ( https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/BUDGET-2019-TAB/BUDGET-2019-TAB-8-1 )、局经济分析（名义GDP）。

Note: “Change to gross public debt to GDP” matches exactly absolute changes to gross public debt.

注：“公共债务总额占 GDP 的变化”与公共债务总额的绝对变化完全一致。

Division by GDP does not influence the type of changes (Positive or Negative) in gross public debt but gives us a more readable graph.

除以 GDP 不会影响公共债务总额的变化类型（正或负），但会为我们提供一个更易读的图表。

Appendix 2: Monetary policy drives interest rates, not fiscal policy.

附录 2：货币政策驱动利率，而非财政政策。

Figures 2 and 3 show that the fiscal position is unrelated to the cost of credit, while monetary policy has a very strong influence.

图2和图3显示，财政状况与信贷成本无关，而货币政策的影响非常大。

When the US Treasury runs very large deficits, it usually does so in periods of recession when tax revenues plummet.

当美国财政部出现巨额赤字时，通常是在税收收入大幅下降的经济衰退时期。

During these periods, the Federal Reserve also lowers its policy interest rate to help the economy and all other rates follow.

在此期间，美联储还会降低政策利率以帮助经济发展，所有其他利率也会随之降低。

During World War II, when the fiscal deficit ran past 20% of GDP as government spending increased very rapidly, the Federal Reserve set interest rates on the public debt very low for years and all other private interest rates followed and stayed low for years.

第二次世界大战期间，由于政府支出迅速增加，财政赤字超过 GDP 的 20%，美联储多年来将公共债务利率设定为非常低的水平，所有其他私人利率也随之跟进并保持在较低水平。

Figure 2.

图 2.

Fiscal position and interest rates Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research (Macrohistory Database, Tables from “The American Business Cycle”), Treasury Bulletin (via FRASER), Bureau of Fiscal Service (Monthly Receipts, Outlays, and Deficit or Surplus, Fiscal Years 1981-2017) Note: Quarterly data, Q1 1880 to Q4 2016 for fiscal position and commercial paper, Q1 1900 to Q4 2016 for high-grade bonds.

财政状况和利率 资料来源：国家经济研究局（宏观历史数据库，来自“美国商业周期”的表格）、财政部公报（来自 FRASER）、财政服务局（1981-2017 财年的月度收入、支出、赤字或盈余） 注：季度数据，1880 年第一季度至 2016 年第四季度的财政状况和商业数据纸质债券，1900 年第一季度至 2016 年第四季度的高等级债券。

Figure 3 Monetary policy and nominal interest rates Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research (Macrohistory Database) Note: Monthly data from January 1919 to December 2015

图3 货币政策与名义利率 资料来源：国家经济研究局（宏观历史数据库） 注：1919年1月至2015年12月月度数据

Figure 4 shows that the growth rate of gross national product (GNP) is the same prior to, and after, World War Two.

图4显示，第二次世界大战前后国民生产总值（GNP）增长率相同。

The volatility of the growth rate of GNP has declined significantly after World War Two (the blue line fluctuates much less).

第二次世界大战后，GNP增长率的波动性显着下降（蓝线波动小得多）。

There also are less contractions (grey bars), and they are thinner and more spaced out.

收缩也较少（灰色条），并且它们更细且间隔更大。

When there is a recession, GNP falls less and recovers faster.

当经济衰退时，国民生产总值下降幅度较小，恢复速度较快。

Figure 4.

图 4.

The U.S. Business Cycle: 1875:1-2017:1 (Base: 2009) Sources: NBER, BEA, The American Business Cycle by R.J.

美国经济周期：1875:1-2017:1（基准：2009 年） 资料来源：NBER、BEA、R.J. 的《美国经济周期》

Gordon (ed.).

戈登（编辑）。

The share of public debt held by the domestic private nonfinancial sector has shrunk from 40% of the public debt to 5%.

国内私人非金融部门持有的公共债务份额已从公共债务的40%缩减至5%。

Meanwhile the share held by the rest of the world, especially official institutions, has grown tremendously.

与此同时，世界其他地区，尤其是官方机构所占的份额大幅增长。

Figure 4.

图 4.

Structure of Ownership of Gross Public Debt, 1945-2013.

公共债务总额的所有权结构，1945 年至 2013 年。

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

资料来源：美联储系统理事会

Appendix 5.

附录5。

Revenues and expenditures by the federal government move automatically, tax revenues move very widely.

联邦政府的收入和支出自动变化，税收收入变化非常广泛。

Figure 5.

图 5.

Growth rate of taxes and other dues, and growth rate of federal expenditures, percent Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.

税收和其他会费增长率以及联邦支出增长率，百分比 资料来源：经济分析局。

Appendix 6: Not all sectors can record a surplus at the same time.

附录6：并非所有行业都能同时录得盈余。

Figure 6 illustrates the point by showing the financial balance (Surplus (+) or deficit (-)) of the three major sectors of the economy.

图 6 通过显示经济三大部门的财务平衡（盈余 (+) 或赤字 (-)）说明了这一点。

In accounting terms, we know that:

在会计方面，我们知道：

Government balance + Domestic private sector balance + Foreign balance = 0

政府余额 + 国内私营部门余额 + 国外余额 = 0

This applies at all times.

这在任何时候都适用。

Usually the government sector runs a deficit and the other sectors record a surplus.

通常政府部门出现赤字，而其他部门则出现盈余。

We had an unusual period in the late 1990s and mid 2000s when the domestic private sector balance (the black area in the graph) was negative and the government sector briefly recorded a small surplus ( Democrats were so proud of this although their fiscal policy pushed the domestic private sector balance further and further in the red).

我们在 1990 年代末和 2000 年代中期经历了一个不寻常的时期，当时国内私营部门收支平衡（图中的黑色区域）为负值，而政府部门短暂地录得小额盈余（民主党人对此感到非常自豪，尽管他们的财政政策使国内私营部门收支平衡越来越赤字）。

This ultimately led to the Great Recession because, contrary to the US government, the domestic private sector cannot sustain a deficit.

这最终导致了大衰退，因为与美国政府相反，国内私营部门无法维持赤字。

Figure 6.

图 6.

Financial Balance (+ surplus, – deficit) of the Foreign sector (F), domestic private sector (DP) and government (G) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

外国部门 (F)、国内私营部门 (DP) 和政府 (G) 的财务平衡（+ 盈余，- 赤字） 资料来源：美联储系统理事会

Appendix 7: The US government is always able to pay its debt as long as it is denominated in USD

附录7：只要是美元计价的债务，美国政府总是有能力偿还的