MMT is a Political Problem: Part 2

In the first part of this series, we explained why MMT should be seen as a political problem rather than just an educational one.

在本系列的第一部分中，我们解释了为什么现代货币理论应该被视为一个政治问题而不仅仅是一个教育问题。

In this concluding part, we will discuss where MMT promotion is most likely to fail or have good chances of success.

在本结论部分，我们将讨论 MMT 推广在哪些方面最有可能失败或成功的机会很大。

First, consider some poor prospects.

首先，考虑一些前景不佳的情况。

All readers of NEP know how Social Security works and it seems like a natural for MMT.

NEP 的所有读者都知道社会保障是如何运作的，这对于 MMT 来说似乎是很自然的事情。

But is it?

但真的是这样吗？

Wall Street sees the program as a leak from what should be their profitable money flow.

华尔街认为该计划是他们本应盈利的资金流的泄漏。

For years, the former investment banker and secretary of commerce under Ronald Reagan, Pete Peterson, kept forecasting its failure.

多年来，前投资银行家、罗纳德·里根领导下的商务部长皮特·彼得森一直预测其失败。

George W.

乔治·W.

Bush tried to fix the leak by privatizing it.

布什试图通过私有化来解决泄密问题。

Arguing the virtues of MMT for Social Security is a sure way to stir up Wall Street bees that are quiet at the moment.

争论现代货币理论对于社会保障的优点肯定会激起目前安静的华尔街蜜蜂。

Wall Street sees more federal health care financing as expanding another big leak.

华尔街认为更多的联邦医疗保健融资正在扩大另一次重大泄漏。

Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren campaigned on this, but the insurance industry sees the fight as one they can’t afford to lose.

伯尼·桑德斯和伊丽莎白·沃伦为此进行了竞选，但保险业认为这场斗争是他们输不起的。

Applying MMT’s dollar creation logic to the fight would just compound the problem from both the pro and anti federalization standpoints.

从支持联邦化和反对联邦化的角度来看，将现代货币理论的美元创造逻辑应用到这场斗争中只会使问题更加复杂。

Paying off student loans is not a good bet right now either.

现在还清学生贷款也不是一个好的选择。

Private lenders made investments in what they expected to be cash cows for decades.

几十年来，私人贷款机构对他们认为是摇钱树的东西进行了投资。

The lenders think they have enough influence over congressional committees to keep the cows healthy until they come home of their own accord.

贷款人认为他们对国会委员会有足够的影响力，可以保持奶牛的健康，直到它们自愿回家。

A jobs guarantee program makes sense from the standpoint of those who need it.

从需要者的角度来看，就业保障计划是有意义的。

But quite a few employers want a cushion of unemployed workers to use as a club over their employees.

但相当多的雇主希望失业工人能够作为其雇员的俱乐部。

The Federal Reserve, which primarily serves the big banks, sees a minimum level of unemployed as a way to limit inflation.

主要为大银行服务的美联储将最低失业率视为限制通货膨胀的一种方式。

From a political standpoint, those who would benefit from the job guarantee program have few chips to play while those who will oppose it have many.

从政治角度看，保就业的受益者筹码不多，反对保保的筹码很多。

If MMT promotion is a political problem, pushing a jobs guarantee now is more likely to backfire than be of much help.

如果促进现代货币理论是一个政治问题，那么现在推动就业保障更有可能适得其反，而不是带来多大帮助。

So what’s an MM promoter to do?

那么MM推广员应该做什么呢？

Here are some off-the-top-of-the-head ideas to trigger your imagination.

这里有一些突发奇想，可以激发您的想象力。

The GDP fails to measure many private sector losses as negative transactions.

GDP 未能将许多私营部门的损失衡量为负交易。

But if there was a national balance sheet, major losses would leave it in worse shape.

但如果有国家资产负债表，重大损失将使其状况更糟。

One place to look for opportunities for promoting use of MMT is in absorbing losses that the private sector will try to avoid.

寻找促进使用现代货币理论的机会之一是吸收私营部门试图避免的损失。

Many of the losses would be deflationary so absorbing them would not be inflationary.

许多损失将是通货紧缩的，因此吸收它们不会导致通货膨胀。

Consider:

考虑：

Automobiles, trucks, homes, and businesses that could not be insured but were destroyed by catastrophic fires and floods;

无法投保但被灾难性火灾和洪水摧毁的汽车、卡车、房屋和企业；

Victims of mass shootings or diseases like the coronavirus, their families, health care providers, employers, and schools;

大规模枪击事件或冠状病毒等疾病的受害者、他们的家人、医疗保健提供者、雇主和学校；

Sunk costs of utility and energy companies in facilities that will become obsolete due to climate change before they can be recovered through normal depreciation.

公用事业和能源公司的设施的沉没成本将因气候变化而过时，然后才能通过正常折旧收回。

Before World War II, Roosevelt made agreements with industry that let them earn large profits from war work in exchange for their political support to counter isolationists.

第二次世界大战前，罗斯福与工业界达成协议，让他们从战争工作中赚取巨额利润，以换取他们对抗孤立主义者的政治支持。

That type of agreement might be possible with parts of the financial industry to allow MMT to be used where it would not compete with their interests.

此类协议可能会与部分金融行业达成，允许在不与金融行业利益竞争的情况下使用现代货币理论。

For example, health care insurers might accept help based on MMT if it would be used to absorb costs of preexisting conditions.

例如，如果医疗保险公司可以接受基于 MMT 的帮助，如果该帮助可用于承担原有疾病的费用。

Don’t fight ‘em—join ‘em.

不要与他们战斗——加入他们。

There are other ways to bring MM on stream gradually without waiving red flags.

还有其他方法可以让 MM 逐渐上线，同时又不会放弃危险信号。

For some types of expenditures, federal bonds could be sold that would equal half of the payments.

对于某些类型的支出，可以出售相当于付款一半的联邦债券。

This would reduce the claims that the debt and future interest payments can become a burden.

这将减少债务和未来利息支付可能成为负担的说法。

It could be done in a way that would make the financial service industry decide where their strongest interests lie.

可以通过让金融服务业决定其最大利益所在的方式来实现。

Richard Nixon started Federal Revenue Sharing in 1972 and it became one of the most popular government assistance programs because of its flexibility and minimal paperwork.

理查德·尼克松 (Richard Nixon) 于 1972 年启动了联邦收入共享计划，因其灵活性和最少的文书工作而成为最受欢迎的政府援助计划之一。

Reagan terminated it in order to reduce the public’s reliance on government.

里根终止了它，以减少公众对政府的依赖。

There may be strong, bipartisan support for restarting it as an off-budget payment program that would not add to the deficit or debt.

作为一项不会增加赤字或债务的预算外付款计划，两党可能会大力支持重新启动该计划。

If federally insured banks can run off-balance sheet gambles with derivatives to boost their profits, how can they object to the Feds doing something similar for the benefit of lower levels of government?

如果联邦保险银行可以利用衍生品进行表外赌博以提高利润，那么他们怎么能反对美联储为了下级政府的利益而做类似的事情呢？

Many large firms in industries that will need to shift from fossil fuels quickly are likely to have major problems raising capital at reasonable costs.

许多需要迅速摆脱化石燃料的行业的大公司可能会在以合理成本筹集资金方面遇到重大问题。

A conversion assistance program could be enacted that makes federal payments which are not limited by deficit spending restraints and turn these firms into MMT supporters.

可以制定一项转换援助计划，使联邦付款不受赤字支出限制，并将这些公司转变为现代货币理论的支持者。

Once one starts down this line of thinking, the opportunities seem endless.

一旦人们开始沿着这条思路思考，机会似乎是无穷无尽的。

I think this type of demand-pull can be the most effective way to promote MMT and gradually reduce the lock that Wall Street has on Main Street while tamping down the scarce money myth.

我认为这种需求拉动可能是促进现代货币理论的最有效方式，并逐渐减少华尔街对主街的锁定，同时压制稀缺货币神话。

Each of the preceding ideas could be put in place with minor legislative and regulatory patches that would not disrupt the entire present federal budget and payment system.

上述每一个想法都可以通过小的立法和监管补丁来实施，而不会破坏整个现有的联邦预算和支付系统。

Major overhaul can wait for a while.

大修可以再等一段时间。