Can the US Treasury run out of money when the US government can’t?

On one side, critics argued that MMTers say nothing new when MMTers emphasize US government’s monetary sovereignty; “everybody knows this” is a common refrain.

一方面，批评者认为，当现代货币理论的支持者强调美国政府的货币主权时，现代货币理论的支持者并没有说什么新内容。 “每个人都知道这一点”是一个常见的说法。

On the other side, critics argue that MMT incorrectly merges the US Treasury and Fed into a US government, which ignores the fact that the US Treasury can run out of money because it needs to tax and issue bonds first before it can spend.

另一方面，批评者认为现代货币理论错误地将美国财政部和美联储合并为美国政府，忽视了美国财政部可能会耗尽资金的事实，因为它需要先征税和发行债券才能支出。

Something is amiss.

出了点问题。

This post shows that MMT can be understood from two viewpoints.

这篇文章表明，MMT 可以从两个角度来理解。

One is the consolidation viewpoint and another is the coordination viewpoint.

一是巩固观点，二是协调观点。

Both lead to the same conclusion; money is never an issue.

两者都得出相同的结论；钱从来都不是问题。

US government can’t run out of money, US Treasury can’t run out of money.

美国政府不能缺钱，美国财政部不能缺钱。

They are other implications in terms of public finances (the role of taxes, the role of Treasury issuances, debt sustainability, etc.) and monetary policy but the post does not address these issues .

它们是公共财政（税收的作用、国债发行的作用、债务可持续性等）和货币政策方面的其他影响，但该帖子并未解决这些问题。

In 2005, while testifying in front of the House Budget Committee about the solvency of Social Security, Greenspan noted:

2005 年，格林斯潘在众议院预算委员会就社会保障的偿付能力作证时指出：

I wouldn’t say that the pay-as-you-go benefits are insecure, in the sense that there is nothing to prevent the federal government from creating as much money as it wants and paying it to somebody.

我不会说现收现付的福利是不安全的，因为没有什么可以阻止联邦政府随心所欲地创造货币并将其支付给某人。

The question is, how do you set up a system which assures that the real assets are created which those benefits are employed to purchase.

问题是，如何建立一个系统来确保创建实际资产并利用这些福利来购买。

(Greenspan in House of Representative 2005, 43)

（格林斯潘在众议院 2005 年，43）

Social security can’t be insolvent; there is a potential resource problem, there is never a financial problem.

社会保障不能资不抵债；存在潜在的资源问题，但从来不存在财务问题。

When Standard & Poor’s downgraded US Treasuries in 2011, the hysteria about the debt reached a new peak, and yet again all informed pundits understood that a credit rating for the US public debt is irrelevant:

2011 年，当标准普尔下调美国国债评级时，人们对债务的歇斯底里达到了新的顶峰，所有消息灵通的专家再次明白，美国公共债务的信用评级是无关紧要的：

As the sole manufacturer of dollars, whose debt is denominated in dollars, the U.S. government can never become insolvent, i.e., unable to pay its bills.

作为美元的唯一制造者，其债务以美元计价，美国政府永远不会破产，即无法支付账单。

In this sense, the government is not dependent on credit markets to remain operational.

从这个意义上说，政府并不依赖信贷市场来维持运作。

Moreover, there will always be a market for U.S. government debt at home because the U.S. government has the only means of creating risk-free dollar-denominated assets (Fawley and Juvenal 2011)

此外，美国政府债务在国内永远存在市场，因为美国政府拥有创造无风险美元计价资产的唯一手段（Fawley and Juvenal 2011）

This is not an issue of credit rating, the United States can pay any debt it has because we can always print the money to do that.

这不是信用评级的问题，美国可以偿还它所拥有的任何债务，因为我们总是可以印钱来做到这一点。

So, there is zero probability of default (Greenspan 2011)

因此，违约概率为零（Greenspan 2011）

We’ve got the right to print our own money that’s the key.

我们有权印自己的钱，这是关键。

Greece lost their power to print their money.

希腊失去了印钞能力。

If they could print drachmas they would not have this problem.

如果他们可以打印德拉克马，他们就不会有这个问题了。

They’d have other problems, but they would not have a debt problem.

他们还会有其他问题，但不会有债务问题。

Seventeen countries in Europe gave up their right to print their own money, that’s enormously important.

欧洲十七个国家放弃了印钞权，这一点非常重要。

We’ve got the right to print our own money so our credit is good (Buffet 2011)

我们有权印自己的钱，所以我们的信用良好（Buffet 2011）

Interest rates on US Treasuries proceeded to fall further after the downgrade as the Federal Reserve kept its course of pushing down rates.

由于美联储继续压低利率，美国国债利率在降级后进一步下跌。

Once again, everybody was reminded that the financials are irrelevant for a monetarily sovereign government.

再次提醒大家，财务状况与货币主权政府无关。

In 2014, Larry Summers nodded by noting that: “We have a currency we print ourselves, and that fundamentally changes the macroeconomic dynamics in our country.”

2014 年，拉里·萨默斯 (Larry Summers) 点头表示：“我们有自己印制的货币，这从根本上改变了我们国家的宏观经济动态。”

In all these cases, the authors use a rhetorical strategy that recognized the logical implications of monetary sovereign.

在所有这些案例中，作者都​​使用了认识到货币主权的逻辑含义的修辞策略。

This strategy cuts to the chase by pointing to the fact that that money is never an issue for “the US government/the United States.” Everyone nodes in agreement until someone in the room raises his hand and says: “Hey!

这一策略切入正题，指出资金对于“美国政府/美国”来说从来都不是问题。每个人都点头同意，直到房间里有人举手说：“嘿！

But hold on a second!

但请稍等！

This is not how things work, the Treasury needs to tax and issue bonds first before it spends, it can’t print money at will.”

事情不是这样的，财政部需要先征税并发行债券，然后再支出，它不能随意印钞票。”

Answering that query involves changing the rhetoric to include the institutional features involved in the implementation of monetary sovereignty.

回答这个问题需要改变措辞，将实施货币主权所涉及的制度特征包括在内。

Instead of saying that the US government can’t run out of dollars because it is the issuer of the dollar, one just needs to state that the Fed and Treasury coordinate to ensure that monetary and fiscal policies are implemented smoothly.

与其说美国政府因为是美元的发行国而不能耗尽美元，不如说美联储和财政部协调确保货币和财政政策顺利实施。

Once again, money is not an issue for fiscal operations.

再说一遍，钱不是财政运作的问题。

The Fed always accommodates the financial needs of the Treasury, either directly or indirectly, in order to ensure that the payment system is not disrupted.

美联储总是直接或间接地满足财政部的财务需求，以确保支付系统不被破坏。

The coordination has allowed the Treasury to meet all its obligations.

这种协调使财政部能够履行其所有义务。

The Fed is the fiscal agent of the Treasury, the underwriter of Treasuries, and a guarantor of the stability of the payment system.

美联储是财政部的财政代理人、国债的承销商和支付体系稳定性的保证者。

While a lot is made about the independence of the Fed, full independence is a veil.

尽管人们对美联储的独立性进行了很多讨论，但完全的独立性只是一层面纱。

MacLaury at the Minneapolis Fed put it this way:

明尼阿波利斯联储的麦克劳里是这样说的：

First, let’s be clear on what independence does not mean.

首先，我们要明确什么是独立。

It does not mean […] that the Fed is independent of the government.

这并不意味着美联储独立于政府。

Although closely interfaced with commercial banking, the Fed is clearly a public institution, functioning within a discipline of responsibility to the “public interest.” […] Monetary judgments must be able to weigh as objectively as possible the merit of short-term expedients against long-term consequences—in the on-going public interest.

尽管美联储与商业银行关系密切，但它显然是一个公共机构，在对“公共利益”负责的纪律范围内运作。 [……]货币判断必须能够尽可能客观地权衡短期权宜之计的优点与长期后果——为了持续的公共利益。

(MacLaury 1977)

（麦克劳里 1977）

Chairman Eccles again provides further insights on the financing of the Treasury:

埃克尔斯主席再次提供了有关财政部融资的进一步见解：

“[In past Congressional hearings] there was a feeling that […] Government [borrowing] directly from the Federal Reserve bank […] took off any restraint toward getting a balanced budget.

“[在过去的国会听证会上]有一种感觉，[...]政府直接从联邦储备银行[借款][...]取消了对平衡预算的任何限制。

Of course, in my opinion, that really had no relationship to budgetary deficits, for the reason that it is the Congress which decides on the deficits or the surpluses, and not the Treasury.

当然，在我看来，这确实与预算赤字无关，因为决定赤字或盈余的是国会，而不是财政部。

If Congress appropriates more money than Congress levies taxes to pay, then, there is naturally a deficit, and the Treasury is obligated to borrow.

如果国会拨款的金额多于国会征税的金额，那么自然就会出现赤字，财政部就有义务借款。

The fact that they cannot go directly to the Federal Reserve bank to borrow does not mean that they cannot go indirectly to the Federal Reserve bank, for the very reason that there is no limit to the amount that the Federal Reserve System can buy in the market.

他们不能直接向美联储借款，并不意味着他们不能间接向美联储借款，因为美联储可以在市场上购买的金额没有限制。

[…] Therefore, if the Treasury has to finance a heavy deficit, the Reserve System creates the condition in the money market to enable the borrowing to be done, so that, in effect, the Reserve System indirectly finances the Treasury through the money market, and that is how the interest rates were stabilized as they were during the war, and as they will have to continue to be in the future.

[……]因此，如果财政部必须为巨额赤字融资，那么储备体系就会在货币市场上创造条件，使借款得以进行，因此，储备体系实际上通过货币市场间接为财政部提供资金，这就是利率在战争期间得以稳定的方式，并且在未来也将继续如此。

So it is an illusion to think that to eliminate or to restrict the direct borrowing privilege reduces the amount of deficit financing.

因此，认为取消或限制直接借贷特权会减少赤字融资的想法是一种幻想。

Or that the market controls the interest rate.

或者说市场控制利率。

Neither is true.

两者都不是真的。

(Eccles in U.S. House, 1947, p.

（埃克尔斯在《美国之家》，1947 年，第 17 页）

8)

8）

The fear that the Treasury could run out of money because a Treasury-security auction could fail is unwarranted.

担心财政部可能会因为国债拍卖失败而耗尽资金，这种担心是没有根据的。

The Fed makes sure Treasury-security auctions are always successful:

美联储确保国债拍卖始终成功：

Now today in pricing a new Treasury issue, the Federal is in the position of underwriter.

现在，在对新国债进行定价时，联邦处于承销商的地位。

During the period of the offering the Federal tries to see to it that the Treasury’s issue is successful […] It stabilizes the market just the way any underwriter does.

在发行期间，联邦试图确保财政部的发行成功[……]它就像任何承销商一样稳定市场。

(Martin in U.S. Senate, 1952A, p.

（马丁在美国参议院，1952A，第 17 页）

96)

96）

Throughout the past decades the Fed has done so in many different ways such as buying whatever was leftover in the auction, providing a dependable refinancing channel to the Treasury by replacing its maturing treasuries, and financing primary dealers that must bid at Treasury auctions.

在过去的几十年里，美联储通过许多不同的方式做到了这一点，例如购买拍卖中剩余的东西，通过替换到期的国债为财政部提供可靠的再融资渠道，以及为必须在国债拍卖中竞标的一级交易商提供融资。

For example during World War Two:

以第二次世界大战期间为例：

It was evident that all funds needed for financing the war which were not raised by taxation or by the sale of Government securities to nonbank investors would need to be raised by the sale of securities to the banking system.

显然，战争所需的所有资金，如果不是通过税收或向非银行投资者出售政府证券筹集的，都需要通过向银行系统出售证券来筹集。

At first commercial banks were able to draw down excess reserves by several billion dollars, but later they had to be supplied with a considerable amount of additional reserve funds in order to purchase the necessary securities […] In general, further reserve funds were supplied by Federal Reserve purchases of short-term Government securities.

起初商业银行能够提取数十亿美元的超额准备金，但后来它们必须获得大量额外的准备金才能购买必要的证券……一般来说，更多的准备金是通过美联储购买短期政府证券来提供的。

(Martin in U.S. Senate, 1952B, p.

（马丁在美国参议院，1952B，第 17 页）

288))

288））

The central bank is in constant contact with the Treasury Department which, among other things, is responsible for the management of the public debt and its various cash accounts.

中央银行与财政部保持经常联系，财政部除其他外负责公共债务及其各种现金账户的管理。

Prior to the existence of the Federal Reserve System, the Treasury actually carried out many monetary functions.

在联邦储备系统存在之前，财政部实际上履行了许多货币职能。

And even since, the Treasury has often been deeply involved in monetary functions, especially during the earlier years …

甚至从那时起，财政部就经常深入参与货币职能，特别是在早些年……

Following the 1951 accord between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve System, the central bank was no longer required to support the securities market at any particular level.

1951 年财政部与联邦储备系统达成协议后，中央银行不再需要在任何特定层面上支持证券市场。

In effect, the accord established that the central bank would act independently and exercise its own judgment as to the most appropriate monetary policy.

实际上，该协议规定央行将独立行动，并自行判断最合适的货币政策。

But it would also work closely with the Treasury and would be fully informed of and sympathetic to the Treasury’s needs in managing and financing the public debt …

但它也将与财政部密切合作，并充分了解并同情财政部在管理和融资公共债务方面的需求……

The Treasury and the central bank also work closely in the Treasury’s management of its substantial cash payments and withdrawals of Treasury Tax and Loan account balances deposited in commercial banks, since these cash flows affect bank reserves.

财政部和中央银行还密切合作，管理财政部的大量现金支付以及存放在商业银行的国库税和贷款账户余额的提取，因为这些现金流会影响银行准备金。

(MacLaury 1977)

（麦克劳里 1977）

The Federal Reserve and the Treasury must work together to support the financial system because they are ultimately two sides of the same coin—the US government.

美联储和财政部必须共同努力支持金融体系，因为它们归根结底是同一枚硬币的两面——美国政府。

The Fed cannot be fully independent from the Treasury:

美联储不能完全独立于财政部：

the history of central banking, as was brought out earlier by the chairman, is that central banking cannot get too far away from the policies of Government too long; and that while central banks historically have won battles against the Government, they have always lost the war.

正如主席早些时候所指出的，中央银行的历史是，中央银行不能太长时间地远离政府政策；尽管央行在历史上赢得了与政府的战斗，但他们总是输掉这场战争。

(Wiggins in U.S. Senate, 1952A, p.

（威金斯在美国参议院，1952A，第 17 页）

235)

235）

The central bank has independence of tools (interest-rate setting) and goals (inflation, etc.) but must work fiscal operations into its daily activities.

中央银行拥有工具（利率设定）和目标（通货膨胀等）的独立性，但必须将财政运作纳入其日常活动。

It has done so through multiple means that have varied overtime such as direct financing, allowing intraday overdraft, and supporting primarily dealers.

它通过直接融资、允许盘中透支以及主要支持经销商等多种不同方式实现了这一目标。

If the Fed does not play ball to meet the needs of the legislative and executive branches, there will be major disruption to the payment system and democratic system, and Congress can always take back the monetary powers it granted to the Fed.

如果美联储不努力满足立法和行政部门的需求，支付系统和民主制度将会受到重大破坏，国会随时可以收回授予美联储的货币权力。

As Bernanke put it: “The Fed will do whatever Congress tells us to do.” The ball is in the hands of Congress and, at times, it has dropped the ball by political games surrounding the debt ceiling.

正如伯南克所说：“美联储将做国会告诉我们做的任何事情。”球掌握在国会手中，但有时，国会却因围绕债务上限的政治游戏而失败。