The Ship is Hitting the Fan

If you’re not anticipating empty shelves this summer and into the holiday season, you probably should be.

如果你预计今年夏天和假期期间货架上不会空空如也，那么你可能应该如此。

Even if President Trump cancelled every tariff he’s imposed since taking office, Americans would still face higher prices and severe shortages across a rage of product categories in the months ahead.

即使特朗普总统取消了自上任以来征收的所有关税，美国人在未来几个月仍将面临价格上涨和多种产品类别的严重短缺。

It’s not just Wall Street CEOs like Ken Griffin who have expressed concerns over looming supply chain disruptions.

不仅仅是像肯·格里芬这样的华尔街首席执行官对迫在眉睫的供应链中断表示担忧。

It’s chief executives at major retailers like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot, who have been warning President Trump that his trade policies will lead to empty shelves and higher prices due to the supply chain disruptions they are already causing.

沃尔玛、塔吉特和家得宝等主要零售商的首席执行官一直在警告特朗普总统，由于供应链中断，他的贸易政策将导致货架空空和价格上涨。

Because retailers padded their inventories in anticipation of coming tariffs, consumers haven’t been hit with higher prices or acute shortages.

由于零售商因预期即将到来的关税而增加库存，因此消费者并未受到价格上涨或严重短缺的打击。

That’s about to change.

这种情况即将改变。

“Prices are steady right now,” the big box CEOs told the president, but “the shelves will be empty” and this “could become noticeable in two weeks.”

“目前价格稳定，”大型超市的首席执行官告诉总统，但“货架将空无一人”，而这种情况“可能会在两周内变得明显”。

With tariffs on most products coming from China set at 145%, many U.S. companies have been cancelling shipments (or refusing delivery) and halting new orders.

由于大多数来自中国的产品关税被定为 145%，许多美国公司一直在取消发货（或拒绝发货）并停止新订单。

It’s just not profitable for many businesses to pay a $145 levy to import a $100 product.

对于许多企业来说，支付 145 美元的关税来进口 100 美元的产品是无利可图的。

You can imagine the havoc :

你可以想象那场浩劫：

For importers who aren’t able or willing to pay the tariffs on their goods arriving in the coming weeks, that could result in thousands of unclaimed containers of goods at U.S. ports clogging the supply chain, similar to during Covid, said Stein.

斯坦说，对于无法或不愿意为未来几周抵达的货物支付关税的进口商来说，这可能会导致美国港口出现数千个无人认领的货物集装箱，从而堵塞供应链，就像新冠疫情期间一样。

“We could have thousands of containers stuck gumming up the port,” said Stein.

“我们可能有数千个集装箱被困在港口里，”斯坦说。

“It’s going to be a train wreck.”

“这将是一场火车失事。”

But we don’t have to imagine it because the chaos already here.

但我们不必想象它，因为混乱已经存在。

Just take a look at what’s happening to import volumes at the port of Los Angeles right now.

只需看看洛杉矶港目前的进口量情况即可。

Instead of the uptick you would normally see at this time of year, cargo shipments are cratering.

每年这个时候，货物运输量并没有出现通常的增长，而是大幅下降。

And when you look at shipments from China in particular, well….the ship is hitting the fan.

当你特别关注来自中国的发货时，嗯……这艘船正在遭遇困境。

I don’t think people realize just how much they take Chinese-made goods for granted.

我认为人们并没有意识到他们有多么认为中国制造的商品是理所当然的。

For example, I was teaching trade policy last week, and I asked my students whether any of them had ordered from Amazon in the last three months.

例如，上周我在教授贸易政策时，我问我的学生是否有人在过去三个月内从亚马逊订购过商品。

Every hand went up.

每个人都举手了。

Then I asked if they’d be willing to share what they’d purchased: a dog leash, kitchen gadgets, a journal, gardening tools, a coffee maker, printer paper, etc. I speculated that almost everything they bought had been imported from China.

然后我问他们是否愿意分享他们购买的东西：狗绳、厨房用具、日记、园艺工具、咖啡机、打印纸等。我推测他们买的几乎所有东西都是从中国进口的。

Many of them looked surprised, but within a few minutes of Googling they confirmed that 85% of what they bought was made in China.

他们中的许多人看上去很惊讶，但在谷歌搜索后几分钟内，他们证实他们购买的商品中有 85% 是中国制造的。

The pandemic-era shortages were the result of an external shock (COVID-19) that threw sand in the gears of our (otherwise highly efficient) global supply chains.

大流行时期的短缺是外部冲击（COVID-19）的结果，它使我们（原本高效的）全球供应链的齿轮陷入困境。

Seeing empty shelves was unnerving, and the resulting inflation was painful for billions of people around the world.

看到空荡荡的货架令人不安，由此引发的通货膨胀给全世界数十亿人带来痛苦。

This time, the sand is being dumped in by choice.

这一次，沙子是自愿倾倒的。

It’s an internal sabotage operation, foisted upon the world by a handful of China hawks in the Trump administration.

这是特朗普政府中少数对华鹰派强加给世界的内部破坏行动。

As a result, the odds of a self-induced recession are rising.

结果，自身引发的衰退的可能性正在上升。

(Some CEOs say it’s already here.)

（一些首席执行官说它已经在这里了。）

Self-induced shortages and higher prices are already baked in as the number of ships that should be inbound for California are stuck in limbo at Chinese ports.

由于本应驶往加州的船舶数量在中国港口陷入困境，自身引发的短缺和价格上涨已经成为现实。

There is no way to escape shortages at this point.

此时此刻，没有办法摆脱短缺。

We’re not just hurting ourselves.

我们不只是伤害自己。

America’s trade policies are expected to harm the global economy.

预计美国的贸易政策将损害全球经济。

The IMF recently revised its 2025 global growth forecast down to 2.8%, noting that further reductions are possible if trade tensions aren’t resolved fairly soon.

国际货币基金组织最近将 2025 年全球增长预测下调至 2.8%，并指出，如果贸易紧张局势不尽快得到解决，可能会进一步下调。

And while the U.S. and China may be “talking,” it isn’t clear that a deal will come anytime soon.

尽管美国和中国可能正在“交谈”，但尚不清楚是否会很快达成协议。

Indeed, we could be a long way from a meaningful de-escalation between the world’s superpowers.

事实上，世界超级大国之间距离真正缓和紧张局势还有很长的路要走。

While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (rightly) acknowledges that the current impasse is “ unsustainable ”, he said earlier today that the path out of this mess would need to begin with China:

尽管财政部长斯科特·贝森特（正确地）承认当前的僵局是“不可持续的”，但他今天早些时候表示，摆脱这一混乱局面的路径需要从中国开始：

A de-escalation, which I think the Chinese are going to have to have.

我认为中国必须要缓和局势。

Then I think there can be an agreement in principle.

那么我认为原则上是可以达成一致的。

In other words, the ball is in China’s court, which tells me that we could be a long way from resolution.

换句话说，球在中国这边，这告诉我，我们距离解决问题还有很长的路要走。

As the U.S. looks to make deals with other nations in the interim, China has vowed to retaliate if those deals are perceived to harm Chinese interests.

随着美国寻求在此期间与其他国家达成协议，中国誓言如果这些交易被认为损害了中国的利益，将进行报复。

Chinese officials have referred to US trade policies as a form of "unilateral bullying." This isn’t getting resolved quickly.

中国官员将美国的贸易政策称为“单边霸凌”。这不会很快得到解决。

Even some of the hard data is getting a bit ugly.

甚至一些硬数据也变得有点难看。

Apollo’s Torsten Slok notes a sharp increase in the share of people making only the minimum payment on their credit cards, and Lending Tree reports that 25% of Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) users are relying on the service to buy groceries (up from 14% just a year ago).

Apollo 的 Torsten Slok 指出，仅使用信用卡支付最低还款额的人数比例急剧增加，Lending Tree 报告称，25% 的先买后付 (BNPL) 用户依靠该服务购买杂货（一年前这一比例为 14%）。

As Sam Ro highlighted in his newsletter this morning, the hard vs soft data still looks OK for now.

正如 Sam Ro 今天早上在时事通讯中强调的那样，硬与软数据目前看起来仍然不错。

But when the ship hits the fan, the hard data will follow the soft data down the toilet.

但当船出故障时，硬数据就会跟着软数据一起被扔进马桶。

And the president’s already abysmal poll numbers will plumb new lows.

总统本已糟糕的民调数字将再创新低。

Right now , 72% of Americans believe Trump’s policies will cause a recession.

目前，72%的美国人认为特朗普的政策将导致经济衰退。

Only 39% approve of job he’s doing on the economy.

只有 39% 的人认可他在经济方面所做的工作。

Barely a third approve of his tariffs, and 53% say the economy has gotten worse since Trump took office.

只有三分之一的人支持他的关税，53%的人表示自特朗普上任以来经济变得更糟。

And if you think those numbers are bad, just wait until frustrated parents find empty shelves where the back-to-school supplies are supposed to be, and holiday shoppers get fed a steady stream of OUT OF STOCK with every click of the mouse.

如果你认为这些数字很糟糕，那就等到沮丧的父母发现本应放返校用品的货架空了，而假期购物者每次点击鼠标就会收到源源不断的“缺货”信息。

You might not think of President Trump as someone who tacks to the left, but that’s going to be his (ongoing) direction of travel when the merch isn’t there and the ship hits the fan in the coming months.

你可能不认为特朗普总统是一个左倾的人，但这将是他（持续的）旅行方向，当商品不在那里并且船在未来几个月遭遇困境时。