The Deficit Myth Turns 5

Last week, The Wall Street Journal ran an article declaring, “Wall Street Is Sounding the Alarm on U.S. Debt.

上周，《华尔街日报》发表文章称，“华尔街正在对美国债务敲响警钟。

This Time, It’s Worth Listening.”

这次，值得一听。”

Featuring an illustrated Uncle Sam with pockets turned inside out, that was the cover story of America’s most influential news magazine…in March 1972.

这是 1972 年 3 月美国最具影响力的新闻杂志的封面故事，其中一幅山姆大叔的口袋被翻了过来。

That influential magazine was TIME , and the image of Uncle Sam with his pockets turned inside out was the inspiration for the cover of my book, The Deficit Myth .

那本颇具影响力的杂志是《时代》杂志，山姆大叔口袋翻过来的形象是我的书《赤字神话》封面的灵感来源。

I remember when I saw a bumper sticker on the back of a Mercedes SUV in 2008 while I made my one-hour commute from Lawrence, Kansas, to my job teaching economics at the University of Missouri in Kansas City.

我记得 2008 年，当我从堪萨斯州劳伦斯乘一小时通勤车前往堪萨斯城密苏里大学教授经济学的工作时，看到一辆奔驰 SUV 后保险杠贴纸。

It featured a man, standing slightly hunched, with his pants pockets turned inside out .

画面上是一个男人，微微驼背地站着，裤子的口袋翻了过来。

His face bore a hardened, serious look.

他的脸上带着冷酷、严肃的表情。

He wore red-and-white striped pants, a dark-blue jacket, and a top hat adorned with stars.

他穿着红白条纹裤子、深蓝色夹克，戴着一顶饰有星星的大礼帽。

It was Uncle Sam .

那是山姆大叔。

Like the driver with this bumper sticker, many people have come to believe that our government is flat broke and that its budget is unable to tackle the most important issues of our time.

就像保险杠贴纸上的司机一样，许多人开始相信我们的政府已经破产，其预算无法解决我们这个时代最重要的问题。

The book was published on June 9, 2020.

该书于2020年6月9日出版。

Exactly five years ago.

整整五年前。

Two weeks after its release, it was a New York Times best seller .

出版两周后，它就成为《纽约时报》的畅销书。

I think it’s safe to assume that part of the reason the book did so well is that it was published at more-or-less the perfect time.

我认为可以肯定的是，这本书之所以如此成功，部分原因在于它的出版时间或多或少是完美的。

Governments around the world were embracing the use of large-scale fiscal deficits in support of households, businesses, and other currency users whose lives and livelihoods were being upended by the onset of a deadly pandemic.

世界各国政府都在拥抱利用大规模财政赤字来支持家庭、企业和其他货币使用者，他们的生活和生计因致命流行病的爆发而受到影响。

People really wanted to understand where all of the money was coming from and whether everything they’d been told about the dangers of government debt and deficits was really true.

人们真的想了解所有的钱从哪里来，以及他们所听到的有关政府债务和赤字危险的一切是否属实。

Almost overnight, there was a flurry of headlines declaring that “We Are All MMTers Now.” That actually frustrated MMT economists.

几乎一夜之间，各大头条新闻纷纷宣称“我们现在都是 MMT 了”。这实际上让 MMT 经济学家感到沮丧。

For one thing, there’s nothing in Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) that advocates for big deficits, or even deficits per se .

一方面，现代货币理论（MMT）中没有任何内容主张巨额赤字，甚至赤字本身。

As a framework for analysis, MMT is agnostic about whether there’s a plus sign (+) or a minus sign (-) in front of the number that falls out of the budget box at the end of each fiscal, calendar, or lunar year.

作为一个分析框架，MMT 不知道每个财政年度、日历年度或农历年度结束时超出预算框的数字前面是否有加号 (+) 或减号 (-)。

There are times when a balanced budget—or even budget surpluses—might be appropriate.

有时平衡预算——甚至预算盈余——可能是合适的。

If a country can achieve full employment and price stability without the need for fiscal deficits—e.g. because they run sufficiently large trade surpluses—that is entirely consistent with the policy objectives under MMT.

如果一个国家能够在不需要财政赤字的情况下实现充分就业和价格稳定——例如因为它们拥有足够大的贸易顺差——这完全符合现代货币理论的政策目标。

If, however, it takes persistent government deficits to achieve those macro goals, then MMT is there to remind us why that shouldn’t spark panic and condemnation.

然而，如果需要持续的政府赤字才能实现这些宏观目标，那么现代货币理论就会提醒我们为什么这不应引发恐慌和谴责。

[W]e should accept any budget outcome that delivers broadly balanced conditions in our economy.

我们应该接受任何能够为我们的经济带来大体平衡条件的预算结果。

Thus, if the budget outcome depicted in Exhibit 2 on the left gives rise to the balanced economic conditions pictured on the right, then fiscal policy requires no further adjustment and we should consider the budget in balance.

因此，如果左表2所示的预算结果导致了右图所示的平衡经济状况，那么财政政策不需要进一步调整，我们应该考虑预算平衡。

While the pandemic is behind us, the U.S. continues to run large fiscal deficits, and republicans are looking to pass a bill that will perpetuate these deficits over the coming decade.

尽管疫情已经过去，但美国仍然存在巨额财政赤字，而共和党人正寻求通过一项法案，使这些赤字在未来十年内长期存在。

Headlines are once again sounding the alarm over what is supposedly a reckless and unsustainable fiscal trajectory.

头条新闻再次对所谓鲁莽且不可持续的财政轨迹敲响了警钟。

I’ve made my opposition to the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) clear, but I’m not joining the chorus of Wall Street worrywarts , including Ray Dalio, Peter Orszag, and Jamie Dimon, who are currently sounding the fiscal alarm.

我已经明确表示反对《伟大而美丽的法案》（OBBBA），但我不会加入华尔街忧心忡忡的人的行列，其中包括雷·达里奥（Ray Dalio）、彼得·奥尔萨格（Peter Orszag）和杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon），他们目前正在拉响财政警报。

Dimon wants us to believe that there’s a fiscal “reckoning” coming.

戴蒙希望我们相信财政“清算”即将到来。

He said , “I just don’t know if it’s going to be a crisis in six months or six years.” Dalio is equally certain there’s trouble ahead, giving America “three years, give or take a year” to avert an economic “heart attack.” Orszag doesn’t try to pin down the timing of a debt crisis, but he says “the wolf” is “lurking much closer to our door.”

他说，“我只是不知道六个月或六年后是否会成为一场危机。”达利奥同样确信未来会遇到麻烦，他给美国“三年的时间，或多或少的一年”来避免经济“心脏病”。奥尔萨格并没有试图确定债务危机发生的时间，但他表示“狼”“潜伏在离我们更近的地方”。

One of the reasons we’re supposedly in trouble, according the WSJ, is that “the math is getting daunting with interest on the debt blowing past $1 trillion annually.” As I recently joked , one wonders how America survived the Volcker/Reagan era.

据《华尔街日报》报道，我们陷入困境的原因之一是“每年债务利息超过 1 万亿美元，计算变得令人畏惧。”正如我最近开玩笑说的那样，人们想知道美国是如何熬过沃尔克/里根时代的。

Anyway, happy anniversary to The Deficit Myth.

不管怎样，赤字神话周年纪念日快乐。

I wish the current debate was less focused on the size of the so-called “national debt” and more focused on inflation risk and other MMT insights .

我希望当前的辩论少关注所谓的“国家债务”的规模，而更多地关注通胀风险和其他现代货币理论的见解。

Maybe we’ll get there in another five years, give or take.

也许再过五年我们就能实现这一目标，无论给予还是接受。

In the meantime, here’s Chapter 3 from the book: The National Debt (That Isn’t).

与此同时，这是本书的第三章：《国债（那不是）》。

The Lens is a reader-supported publication.

《镜头》是一本由读者支持的出版物。

To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

要接收新帖子并支持我的工作，请考虑成为免费或付费订阅者。