Sufferin’ Potash

This week, I’m heading to Canada for a Thursday evening event at The Vancouver Playhouse.

本周，我将前往加拿大参加周四晚上在温哥华剧院举行的活动。

Doors open at 6pm, and the program runs from 7:00-8:30 pm.

下午 6 点开门，活动时间为晚上 7:00-8:30。

I’ll be in conversation with Dr. Joy Johnson, the president and vice-chancellor of Simon Frasaer University.

我将与西蒙·弗雷泽大学校长兼副校长乔伊·约翰逊博士交谈。

There may still be a few tickets available.

可能还有几张票可用。

I’ve agreed to do some press before the event, and I’m sure US-Canadian trade relations will be front-of-mind for many reporters.

我同意在活动前做一些新闻报道，我相信美加贸易关系将成为许多记者首先考虑的问题。

Unfortunately, the president has decided to lock horns with our North American trading partners.

不幸的是，总统决定与我们的北美贸易伙伴发生争执。

After all these years, he remains convinced that “winning at trade” means ending up with more money than the other guy.

这么多年过去了，他仍然坚信“在贸易中获胜”意味着最终比其他人获得更多的钱。

Worse, he’s exceedingly cavalier when it comes to the actual stuff that US producers (farmers, automakers, etc.) and American consumers rely on from our neighbors to the north and south.

更糟糕的是，当谈到美国生产商（农民、汽车制造商等）和美国消费者所依赖的南北邻国的实际产品时，他极其傲慢。

In Donald Trump’s mind, we can easily do without Mexican imports, because they don’t actually supply us with anything we genuinely need.

在唐纳德·特朗普看来，我们可以轻松地不需要墨西哥进口，因为它们实际上并没有为我们提供我们真正需要的任何东西。

It’s not just US producers that know better.

不仅仅是美国生产商更清楚这一点。

Our trading partners know better as well.

我们的贸易伙伴也更了解这一点。

So it will be interesting to hear how Canadian officials are thinking about the president’s latest announcement regarding potash, a potassium-based fertilizer that is a critical input in the global food supply chain.

因此，了解加拿大官员如何看待总统关于钾肥的最新公告将会很有趣，钾肥是一种钾基肥料，是全球食品供应链的关键投入。

The statement makes it sound like the US is going to replace more expensive Canadian potash with cheaper potash from Belarus.

该声明听起来像是美国将用白俄罗斯更便宜的钾肥取代更昂贵的加拿大钾肥。

Same stuff, lower price.

同样的东西，价格更低。

What’s not to like?

有什么不喜欢的？

Sorry Canada, we don’t need you.

对不起，加拿大，我们不需要你。

Right now, about 85% of the potash we consume in the US comes from Canada.

目前，我们在美国消耗的钾肥中约 85% 来自加拿大。

To give you an idea of the scale, that’s ~11-12 million tonnes per year.

为了让您了解其规模，每年约为 11-1200 万吨。

Suppose we tried to replace Canada as our primary supplier.

假设我们试图取代加拿大成为我们的主要供应商。

Is Belarus a credible alternative?

白俄罗斯是一个可靠的选择吗？

Because of sanctions, Belarus hasn’t shipped potash into the US since February 2022.

由于制裁，白俄罗斯自 2022 年 2 月以来就没有向美国运输钾肥。

And even before the sanctions, they only averaged about 635,000 tonnes per year of shipments to the US during its best (2017-21) period.

即使在制裁之前，他们在最好时期（2017-21 年）平均每年向美国出口的货物量也仅为约 635,000 吨。

It’s clear that the US can get more potash from Belarus, but how much more?

很明显，美国可以从白俄罗斯获得更多钾肥，但能增加多少呢？

If we got back to pre-sanction import levels, that would get us to roughly 5% of what Canada sends us right now.

如果我们回到制裁前的进口水平，这将使我们的进口量约为加拿大目前向我们出口的 5%。

If we’re looking at their total productive capacity, Belarus accounts for about 20% of global potash supply.

如果我们看一下他们的总产能，白俄罗斯的钾肥供应量约占全球的 20%。

The problem is that most of that output is already spoken for.

问题是大部分产出已经被提及。

The US can’t just lay claim to what Belarus has already agreed to sell to China, India, and Brazil.

美国不能仅仅声称拥有白俄罗斯已经同意向中国、印度和巴西出售的东西。

Given the huge volume of US consumption, there’s just no way to orchestrate a replacement for Canadian potash on short notice.

鉴于美国的巨大消费量，根本没有办法在短时间内安排加拿大钾肥的替代品。

And while there are no details of any “massive Deal”, it’s not clear that any potash we do end up getting from Belarus will turn out to be cheaper than what was readily available from our neighbor to the north.

虽然没有任何“大规模交易”的细节，但尚不清楚我们最终从白俄罗斯获得的任何钾肥是否会比我们北方邻国容易获得的钾肥便宜。

Instead of a relatively easy cross-border train ride, potash from Belarus has to move through Russia by rail and then out by sea via Baltic ports (because the Lithuanian option is still blocked by EU sanctions).

来自白俄罗斯的钾肥必须通过铁路穿过俄罗斯，然后通过波罗的海港口通过海运（因为立陶宛的选择仍然受到欧盟制裁的阻碍），而不是相对容易的跨境火车运输。

It would only reach the US after a full trans-Atlantic ocean voyage.

它只有在完整的跨大西洋航行后才能到达美国。

And when it finally arrives, it would replace only a fraction of the volume that currently comes from Canada.

当它最终到达时，它只能取代目前来自加拿大的一小部分。

But getting potash from Belarus doesn’t just mean sufferin’ longer wait times.

但从白俄罗斯获取钾肥并不仅仅意味着等待时间更长。

It also means dealing with physical risks we never had to think about with shipments coming to us via Canadian infrastructure—shipping through a war zone, where drone strikes on Baltic port infrastructure have already driven up vessel insurance costs.

这还意味着要处理我们从未考虑过的物理风险，因为货物是通过加拿大基础设施运输到我们的战区，那里的波罗的海港口基础设施遭受的无人机袭击已经推高了船舶保险成本。

Why on earth would we trade safe, short and sufficient for dangerous, distant and deficient?

到底为什么我们要用安全、短暂和充足来交换危险、遥远和不足呢？

Sufferin’ potash.

受苦的钾肥。