Real Wages are Falling. It’s More Common than You Might Think.

Here are the takeaways from today’s nonfarm payrolls report :

以下是今天非农就业报告的要点：

Is 29,000 a good number or a bad number?

29,000 是一个好数字还是一个坏数字？

Economists were expecting something closer to 90,000, so it looks like pretty big disappointment from that vantage point.

经济学家原本预计该数字接近 90,000，因此从这个角度来看，这似乎是相当令人失望的。

On the other hand, maybe demographics (retiring baby boomers) and the plunge in immigration have pushed breakeven job growth down to something close to zero .

另一方面，也许人口统计数据（退休的婴儿潮一代）和移民数量的锐减已将盈亏平衡的就业增长推低至接近于零的水平。

From that perspective, today’s jobs numbers look pretty decent.

从这个角度来看，今天的就业数据看起来相当不错。

Apollo’s Torsten Slok shows how much things have changed on this front.

Apollo 的 Torsten Slok 展示了这方面发生了多大的变化。

So even though today’s report revised away a combined 60,000 jobs from the previous two months—resulting in a loss of 10,000 jobs in July— you can still put a positive spin on the numbers if you believe breakeven is close to zero.

因此，尽管今天的报告修正了前两个月总计 60,000 个工作岗位（导致 7 月份减少 10,000 个工作岗位），但如果您认为盈亏平衡点接近于零，您仍然可以对这些数字持积极态度。

And you could argue that the uptick in unemployment happened—at least in part—for good reasons, since the labor force participation rate moved up a bit.

你可能会说，失业率的上升——至少在一定程度上——是有充分理由的，因为劳动力参与率略有上升。

What you can’t do is ignore the fact that workers are getting squeezed.

你不能忽视工人受到挤压的事实。

Badly.

糟糕的是。

Economist Heather Long put it bluntly: “Inflation has eaten up all wage gains for the average worker since April.” Technically, inflation hasn’t completely wiped out all nominal wage growth over this period.

经济学家希瑟·朗(Heather Long)直言不讳地说：“自四月份以来，通货膨胀已经吞噬了普通工人的所有工资增长。”从技术上讲，通货膨胀并没有完全消除这一时期的所有名义工资增长。

At least not officially.

至少不是正式的。

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) hasn’t published September 2026 CPI yet (we’ll get that October 14).

美国劳工统计局 (BLS) 尚未公布 2026 年 9 月 CPI（我们将于 10 月 14 日公布）。

Until then, we’re looking at a +0.11% cumulative change in real wages since April.

在那之前，我们预计自 4 月份以来实际工资累计变化为 +0.11%。

That’s small, but positive.

虽然很小，但很积极。

That’s cold comfort for people who are struggling to get by, but at least we’re not seeing month after month of negative real wage growth.

对于那些苦苦挣扎的人们来说，这是冰冷的安慰，但至少我们没有看到实际工资逐月负增长。

Still, the data show just how volatile real wages can be from month-to-month.

尽管如此，数据还是显示了实际工资每月的波动有多大。

Since the beginning of this century (out of 318 months), real wages have risen (month-over-month) only 55.7% of the time.

自本世纪初（在 318 个月中）以来，实际工资（环比）上涨的情况只有 55.7%。

They’ve fallen 44% of the time (140 months) and stayed exactly flat in only a single month (0.3% of the time).

它们有 44% 的时间（140 个月）下跌，并且仅在一个月内完全持平（0.3% 的时间）。

That’s roughly a 5-4 split between rising and falling real wages.

实际工资上涨和下降的比例大约为 5 比 4。

Believe it or not, the longest true consecutive decline since 2000 came not during the 2021-2023 post-pandemic inflation wave but heading into the financial crisis from September 2007 to January 2008.

不管你信不信，2000年以来持续时间最长的真正连续下跌不是发生在2021-2023年大流行后通胀浪潮期间，而是2007年9月至2008年1月进入金融危机期间。

That 5 month stretch was the longest continuous decline in real wages this century.

这五个月的持续下降是本世纪持续时间最长的实际工资下降。

The next-longest is a 4-month streak, and that’s happened on seven different occasions since 2000.

其次最长的是连续 4 个月，自 2000 年以来，这种情况已经发生过七次。

With real wages falling last month, we’re on the verge of establishing a new streak.

随着上个月实际工资下降，我们即将创下新的连胜纪录。

Because August came off a positive number in July, we currently sit at just one negative month.

由于 8 月份的数字较 7 月份为正数字，因此目前只有 1 个月份为负数字。

But with nominal wages up just 0.1% in today’s jobs report, it won’t take much to extend this decline.

但在今天的就业报告中，名义工资仅增长了 0.1%，因此这种下降趋势不会持续太久。

Once the BLS drops the September CPI data, even a small baseline price increase will be enough to officially confirm that inflation has, indeed, eaten up all wage gains since April.

一旦劳工统计局公布 9 月份消费者物价指数 (CPI) 数据，即使基线价格小幅上涨也足以正式确认通胀确实已经吞噬了 4 月份以来的所有工资涨幅。

If—or when—that happens, the streak will extend to two consecutive months.

如果（或当）这种情况发生，这种连续记录将延长至连续两个月。

To match the dreadful record set between September 2007 and January 2008, real wage growth would have to remain negative for the rest of the year.

为了与 2007 年 9 月至 2008 年 1 月期间创下的可怕记录相匹配，今年剩余时间实际工资增长必须保持负值。

I’m not predicting that outcome but—unfortunately—it’s more common than you might think.

我并不是在预测这种结果，但不幸的是，这种情况比你想象的更常见。