Did Democrats Pick the Right Shutdown Fight?

民主党人选择了正确的关门斗争吗？

Mon, 13 Oct 2025 19:57:30 GMT · --- · 原文

Today marks the thirteenth day of the government shutdown.

今天是政府关门的第十三天。

Roughly 750,000 people have been furloughed, causing disruptions across a wide array of government agencies.

大约 75 万人被迫休假，导致众多政府机构陷入混乱。

Many essential workers, including air traffic controllers and active-duty troops, are still required to show up for work—and somehow pay their bills and feed their families—even though they aren’t receiving a paycheck.

许多重要工作人员，包括空中交通管制员和现役军人，仍然需要上班，并以某种方式支付账单并养家糊口，尽管他们没有领取薪水。

And now the Trump administration is summarily terminating thousands of federal employees in the departments of Health and Human Services, Treasury, Commerce, Education, Energy, Housing and Urban Development, and Homeland Security.

现在，特朗普政府立即解雇了卫生与公共服务部、财政部、商务部、教育部、能源部、住房和城市发展部以及国土安全部的数千名联邦雇员。

Government shutdowns are nothing new .

政府关门并不是什么新鲜事。

Since 1980, funding has lapsed on fourteen other occasions.

自 1980 年以来，资助已先后有十四次失效。

The record (34 days) for the longest shutdown in U.S. history was set in 2019, during the first Trump administration.

美国历史上最长的停工记录（34天）是在2019年特朗普执政期间创下的。

But this shutdown is different.

但这次关闭有所不同。

For one thing, Russell Vought, the current head of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and principal architect of Project 2025 , came to the job announcing that he was eager to traumatize the federal workforce:

一方面，现任管理和预算办公室 (OMB) 负责人兼 2025 项目首席架构师拉塞尔·沃特 (Russell Vought) 上任后宣布，他渴望给联邦劳动力造成创伤：

[We want them] to be traumatically affected…When they wake up in the morning, we want them to not want to go to work, because they are increasingly viewed as the villains.

[我们希望他们]受到创伤性影响……当他们早上醒来时，我们希望他们不想去上班，因为他们越来越被视为恶棍。

We want their funding to be shut down…We want to put them in trauma.

我们希望停止对他们的资助……我们希望让他们陷入创伤。

From the perspective of the Trump administration, the shutdown presents an opportunity to do just that.

从特朗普政府的角度来看，政府关门提供了实现这一目标的机会。

As the president himself recently put it:

正如总统本人最近所说：

We can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible that are bad for them and irreversible by them, like cutting vast numbers of people out, cutting things they that they like, cutting programs that they like.

我们可以在停摆期间做一些对他们不利、对他们来说也无法逆转的不可逆转的事情，比如裁掉大量人员，削减他们喜欢的东西，削减他们喜欢的项目。

While republicans don’t want to be blamed for the shutdown itself—they’ve branded it the “Schumer shutdown”—they’re using the opportunity to go after people and programs they want to eliminate anyway.

虽然共和党人不想因政府关门本身而受到指责——他们将其称为“舒默政府关门”——但他们却利用这个机会来追捕他们无论如何都想消灭的人和项目。

This is how the OMB director announced the Friday night massacre at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

OMB 主任就是这样宣布疾病控制与预防中心 (CDC) 发生周五晚上的大屠杀的。

Democrats want credit for standing up to the Trump administration, but they don’t want to be blamed for the shutdown that has led to furloughs, firings, flight delays, and so on.

民主党人希望因对抗特朗普政府而获得赞誉，但他们不想因为政府关门导致休假、解雇、航班延误等而受到指责。

Senate democrats acknowledge that they have the power to restart paychecks and bring furloughed workers back to the office.

参议院民主党人承认他们有权重新开始发放工资并将休假的工人带回办公室。

All they have to do is vote to pass the House bill, which extends federal funding at current levels through November 21, and the shutdown would end.

他们所要做的就是投票通过众议院法案，该法案将目前水平的联邦资金延长至 11 月 21 日，政府关门就会结束。

But they’re playing hardball.

但他们正在采取强硬态度。

It takes 60 votes to overcome a filibuster in the Senate, and Sen.

参议院需要 60 票才能克服阻挠议事，而参议员。

Rand Paul (R-KY) continues to vote ‘no’.

兰德·保罗（肯塔基州共和党）继续投反对票。

That means that it will take eight democrats to end the shutdown.

这意味着需要八名民主党人才能结束政府关门。

As it stands, they are five short.

目前来看，他们还差五分。

Most democrats, including the senators featured in this video , have decided to leverage their power in order to rescue tens of millions of Americans from imminent danger.

大多数民主党人，包括该视频中的参议员，都决定利用自己的权力，将数千万美国人从迫在眉睫的危险中拯救出来。

What would happen if five more democrats voted to join Senators Fetterman, Cortez Masto, and King?

如果另外五名民主党人投票支持参议员费特曼、科尔特斯·马斯托和金，会发生什么？

The government would reopen, and a health care catastrophe would unfold across America.

政府将重新开放，一场医疗保健灾难将在美国各地展开。

Health insurance premiums would double for 20 million Americans, 15 million people would lose coverage, and tens of thousands of Americans would die from preventable deaths.

2000万美国人的健康保险费将翻倍，1500万人将失去保险，数以万计的美国人将死于可预防的死亡。

To understand why premiums are poised to skyrocket, you have to understand something about the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which was signed into law by President Obama in March 2010.

要了解保费为何会飙升，您必须了解《平价医疗法案》(ACA)，该法案于 2010 年 3 月由奥巴马总统签署成为法律。

Among other things, the ACA established online platforms (“marketplaces”) that allow people to shop for and purchase health insurance.

除其他外，平价医疗协会建立了在线平台（“市场”），允许人们购买健康保险。

It also created subsidies to reduce the out-of-pocket cost of buying coverage for individuals and families with modest incomes.

它还设立了补贴，以减少低收入个人和家庭购买保险的自付费用。

Under President Biden, Congress expanded the value of the tax credits people receive when they purchase health care in these marketplaces.

在拜登总统的领导下，国会扩大了人们在这些市场购买医疗保健时获得的税收抵免的价值。

The problem facing 24 million people who currently get their coverage under the ACA is that funding for the enhanced subsidies is set to expire on December 31.

目前获得 ACA 保险的 2400 万人面临的问题是，增强补贴的资金将于 12 月 31 日到期。

Democrats are using the only leverage they have to try try to bring republicans to the table to negotiate some kind of deal around health care.

民主党人正在利用他们所拥有的唯一筹码，试图让共和党人坐到谈判桌前，就医疗保健方面的某种协议进行谈判。

And while Senate republicans have shown little interest in negotiating, they know they have a problem .

尽管参议院共和党人对谈判兴趣不大，但他们知道自己遇到了问题。

As Sen.

作为参议员。

Patty Murray (D-WA) points out, Americans who live in so-called “red states” are going to be absolutely walloped by the looming spike in premiums.

帕蒂·默里（D-WA）指出，生活在所谓“红色州”的美国人将绝对受到迫在眉睫的保费飙升的打击。

This is why democratic strategist Neera Tanden recently said that “Republicans should secretly hope that Democrats win this debate.” In other words, by making the shutdown fight about health care, democrats just might end up saving republicans from themselves.

这就是为什么民主战略家尼拉·坦登最近表示，“共和党人应该暗自希望民主党赢得这场辩论”。换句话说，通过让政府关门引发医疗保健问题，民主党最终可能会拯救共和党人。

As Sen.

作为参议员。

Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) notes , about a quarter of all farmers rely on the ACA for their health care coverage.

塔米·鲍德温 (D-WI) 指出，大约四分之一的农民依靠 ACA 获得医疗保健保险。

You might wonder why democrats decided not to sit back let the health care catastrophe unfold.

您可能想知道为什么民主党人决定不袖手旁观，让医疗保健灾难展开。

Why not keep their fingerprints completely off the shutdown?

为什么不完全保留他们的指纹呢？

After all, shutdowns are unpopular, and even though voters tend to blame the party in power, it’s always possible that the “Schumer shutdown” branding could stick.

毕竟，政府关门是不受欢迎的，尽管选民倾向于归咎于执政党，但“舒默关门”的品牌仍然有可能继续存在。

And if democrats are successful in restoring funding for the enhanced subsidies, will they even get credit?

如果民主党成功恢复增加补贴的资金，他们还会获得信贷吗？

When the shutdown began, I kept thinking of images like this.

当政府关门开始时，我一直在想这样的画面。

The superhero arrives just in time to prevent a catastrophe, and the passengers—at least those who know that they were in imminent danger—heap gratitude on their savior.

超级英雄及时赶到，阻止了一场灾难，乘客们——至少是那些知道自己正处于迫在眉睫的危险之中的乘客——对他们的救世主充满了感激之情。

It seemed like a risky bet on the part of democrats.

对于民主党人来说，这似乎是一个冒险的赌注。

Were voters paying attention to what’s coming down the pike with respect to health care?

选民是否关注医疗保健方面的变化？

And if not, could they be educated quickly enough to make them allies in the shutdown fight?

如果没有，他们能否足够快地接受教育，使他们成为停工斗争中的盟友？

Thirteen days later, their political calculus looks a lot less risky.

十三天后，他们的政治算计看起来风险小了很多。

Millions of Americans have been receiving alarming notices from their health insurers.

数百万美国人收到了来自医疗保险公司的令人震惊的通知。

It’s open enrollment season—i.e. the annual period (starting November 1) when individuals can sign up for, renew, or change their health insurance plan.

现在是开放招生季节——即年度期间（从 11 月 1 日开始），个人可以注册、续订或更改其健康保险计划。