Why great AI products are all about the data | Shaun Clowes (CPO at Confluent)
Lenny Rachitsky: I love that you have very strong opinion about this, which is just the state of the product management career and how most PMs are not that great.
Lenny Rachitsky：我喜欢你对此有非常强烈的看法，这就是产品管理职业的现状，以及大多数产品经理都没有那么出色。
Shaun Clowes: Why is it that product management is still such a relatively undeveloped discipline?
Shaun Clowes：为什么产品管理仍然是一门相对不发达的学科？
We're like 15 to 20 years into this, and so there's something about the current state of product management that isn't getting at the truly important things, the truly value-added things.
我们已经进入这个领域大约 15 到 20 年了，所以目前的产品管理状态并没有抓住真正重要的事情、真正增值的事情。
If we were doctors, you'd be like, "That's totally unacceptable."
如果我们是医生，你会说：“这是完全不可接受的。”
Lenny Rachitsky: What's the answer, Shaun?
莱尼·拉奇茨基：答案是什么，肖恩？
How do we solve this problem?
我们如何解决这个问题呢？
Shaun Clowes: In everything always talk from the customer's perspective, from the market's perspective, from the competitor's perspective, the very small number of PMs do that.
Shaun Clowes：凡事总是从客户的角度、从市场的角度、从竞争对手的角度说话，只有极少数的PM这样做。
They get dragged into internal politics, they get dragged into scrum management or scrum execution or product delivery, and you just can't win that way.
他们被拖入内部政治，他们被拖入 Scrum 管理或 Scrum 执行或产品交付，而你就是无法以这种方式获胜。
Lenny Rachitsky: You kind of have this hot take that the way AI will most impact product management is data management.
Lenny Rachitsky：您认为人工智能对产品管理影响最大的方式是数据管理。
Shaun Clowes: Well, you've got this synthesis machine, which is this LLM thing that's going to help you do synthesis, but if it hasn't got all that data to do synthesis on top of, it's got nothing.
Shaun Clowes：嗯，你已经有了这个综合机，这是法学硕士的东西，它将帮助你进行综合，但如果它没有获得所有数据来进行综合，那么它就什么也没有。
And so that means that LLMs can only be as good as the data they are given and how recent that data is.
因此，这意味着法学硕士的好坏取决于他们所获得的数据以及这些数据的最新程度。
Lenny Rachitsky: In the future, if you can easily clone a B2B SaaS app like Salesforce or Atlassian, what happens to these businesses long-term?
Lenny Rachitsky：未来，如果您可以轻松克隆 Salesforce 或 Atlassian 等 B2B SaaS 应用程序，那么从长远来看，这些企业会发生什么？
Do they just become, are they all in trouble?
他们是不是都陷入了麻烦？
Shaun Clowes: People really underestimate where the value is created in these applications and they just kind of get it completely wrong.
Shaun Clowes：人们确实低估了这些应用程序所创造的价值，而且他们完全错误地理解了这一点。
Lenny Rachitsky: Today my guest is Shaun Clowes.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：今天我的客人是肖恩·克劳斯。
Shaun is chief product officer at Confluent.
Shaun 是 Confluence 的首席产品官。
Previously he was chief product officer at MuleSoft, which is a billion-dollar business within Salesforce.
此前，他曾担任 MuleSoft 的首席产品官，该公司是 Salesforce 旗下价值数十亿美元的业务。
Before that, he was chief product officer of Metromile, a public auto insurance technology company.
在此之前，他曾担任公共汽车保险技术公司 Metromile 的首席产品官。
And prior to that he spent six years at Atlassian where he ran the Jira agile and also built the first ever B2B growth team.
在此之前，他在 Atlassian 工作了六年，负责管理 Jira 敏捷，并建立了第一个 B2B 增长团队。
He also created two of the most popular Reforge courses, one on retention and engagement and one on data for product managers.
他还创建了两门最受欢迎的 Reforge 课程，一门关于保留和参与度，另一门关于产品经理的数据。
Shaun is awesome because he's both very tactical in execution oriented, while also being very philosophical and insightful about the craft of product and growth.
肖恩很棒，因为他在执行方面非常有策略性，同时对产品和增长的工艺也非常有哲理和洞察力。
In our conversation, Shaun shares why most PMs are not good, what it takes to become a good or great product manager, how he thinks about his career, like a Bingo card and why he indexes towards finding very different roles for every new job that he takes.
在我们的谈话中，肖恩分享了为什么大多数产品经理都不好，如何成为一名优秀或伟大的产品经理，他如何看待自己的职业生涯，就像宾果卡一样，以及为什么他为他所接受的每一份新工作寻找截然不同的角色。
Lenny Rachitsky: Why good data is the most important ingredient in AI tools and for product managers working with AI.
Lenny Rachitsky：为什么好的数据是人工智能工具以及使用人工智能的产品经理最重要的组成部分。
Also, how to build a great B2B growth team, what he's learned about doing B2B growth and his really interesting take on how AI will and won't disrupt SaaS tools out in the wild.
此外，他还介绍了如何建立一支优秀的 B2B 增长团队、他在 B2B 增长方面学到了什么，以及他对人工智能将如何或不会在野外颠覆 SaaS 工具的真正有趣的看法。
If you enjoy this podcast, don't forget to subscribe and follow it in your favorite podcasting app or YouTube.
如果您喜欢这个播客，请不要忘记订阅并在您最喜欢的播客应用程序或 YouTube 中关注它。
It's the best way to avoid missing feature episodes and it helps the podcast tremendously.
这是避免错过专题节目的最佳方式，并且对播客有很大帮助。
With that I bring you Shaun Clowes.
接下来我为您带来肖恩·克劳斯。
This episode is brought to you by Enterpret.
本集由 Enterpret 为您带来。
Enterpret unifies all your customer interactions from Gong calls to Zendesk tickets, to Twitter threads, to app store reviews and makes it available for analysis.
Enterpret 统一了所有客户交互，从 Kong 呼叫到 Zendesk 票证、Twitter 线程、应用程序商店评论，并可供分析。
It's trusted by leading product orgs like Canva, Notion, Loom, Linear, Monday.com, and Strava to bring the voice of the customer into the product development process, helping you build best-in-class products faster.
它受到 Canva、Notion、Loom、Linear、Monday.com 和 Strava 等领先产品组织的信赖，可将客户的声音纳入产品开发流程，帮助您更快地构建一流的产品。
Lenny Rachitsky: What makes Enterpret special is its ability to build and update customer-specific AI models that provide the most granular and accurate insights into your business, connect customer insights to revenue and operational data in your CRM or data warehouse, to map the business impact of each customer need and prioritize confidently, and empower your entire team to easily take action on use cases like win-loss analysis, critical bug detection, and identifying drivers of churn with Enterpret's AI systems Wisdom.
Lenny Rachitsky：Enterpret 的独特之处在于它能够构建和更新特定于客户的 AI 模型，为您的业务提供最精细、最准确的洞察，将客户洞察与 CRM 或数据仓库中的收入和运营数据联系起来，映射每个客户需求的业务影响并自信地确定优先级，并让您的整个团队能够轻松地对使用案例采取行动，例如使用 Enterpret 的 AI 系统 Wisdom 进行盈亏分析、关键错误检测和识别客户流失的驱动因素。
Looking to automate your feedback loops and prioritize your roadmap with confidence like Notion, Canva and Linear, visit E-N-T-E-R-P-R-E-T.com/lenny to connect with the team and to get two free months when you sign up for an annual plan.
希望自动化反馈循环并自信地确定路线图的优先级（如 Notion、Canva 和 Linear），请访问 E-N-T-E-R-P-R-E-T.com/lenny 与团队联系，并在注册年度计划时获得两个月的免费时间。
This is a limited-time offer.
这是限时优惠。
That's enterpret.com/lenny.
那是 enterpret.com/lenny。
Lenny Rachitsky: This episode is brought to you by BuildBetter.ai.
Lenny Rachitsky：本集由 BuildBetter.ai 为您带来。
Back in 2020 when AI was just a toy, BuildBetter bet that it could cut down on a product team's operational BS.
早在 2020 年，当人工智能还只是一个玩具时，BuildBetter 就认为它可以减少产品团队的运营废话。
Fast-forward to today, 23,000 product teams use purpose-built AI in BuildBetter every day.
快进到今天，每天都有 23,000 个产品团队在 BuildBetter 中使用专门构建的 AI。
First, BuildBetter uses custom models to turn unstructured data like product and sales calls, support tickets, internal communications, and surveys into structured insights.
首先，BuildBetter 使用自定义模型将产品和销售电话、支持票证、内部通信和调查等非结构化数据转化为结构化见解。
It's like having a dedicated data science team.
这就像拥有一个专门的数据科学团队。
Second, BuildBetter runs those structured insights into workflows, like weekly reports about customer issues, contacts to where PRDS, and user research documents with citations, it even turns stand-ups into action items that automatically get assigned and shared into your tools.
其次，BuildBetter 将这些结构化洞察运行到工作流程中，例如有关客户问题的每周报告、PRDS 的联系方式以及带引用的用户研究文档，它甚至将站立会议变成自动分配并共享到您的工具中的行动项目。
Plus, with unlimited seat pricing on all plans, BuildBetter ensures everyone at your company has access to this knowledge, truly no data silos.
此外，BuildBetter 对所有计划均提供无限席位定价，可确保公司中的每个人都能获取这些知识，真正实现无数据孤岛。
In a world of AI demos over-promising and under-delivering, see why BuildBetter has a 93% subscription retention.
在人工智能演示过度承诺但交付不足的世界中，了解为什么 BuildBetter 的订阅保留率高达 93%。
Get a personalized demo and use code Lenny for $100 credit if you sign up now at buildbetter.ai/lenny.
如果您立即在 buildbetter.ai/lenny 注册，即可获取个性化演示并使用代码 Lenny 获得 100 美元积分。
Shaun, thank you so much for being here and welcome to the podcast.
肖恩，非常感谢您来到这里，欢迎来到播客。
Shaun Clowes: Thank you, Lenny.
肖恩·克劳斯：谢谢你，莱尼。
It's really awesome to be here.
来到这里真是太棒了。
Lenny Rachitsky: I've had you on my radar for a long time and I am really excited to finally have you here and big bonus points for having a very beautiful, sultry Australian accent that always helps with the ratings, I think.
Lenny Rachitsky：我已经关注你很长时间了，我真的很高兴终于能见到你，而且我认为，你拥有非常美丽、性感的澳大利亚口音，这总是有助于提高收视率，这给我带来了很大的加分。
I don't know if it's causal, but it's correlative.
我不知道这是否是因果关系，但它是相关的。
Shaun Clowes: I'm glad to be a bit of a curiosity.
Shaun Clowes：我很高兴能有一点好奇心。
Lenny Rachitsky: So I want to start with something I totally believe and I love that you have very strong opinion about this, which is just the state of the product management career and how most PMs are not that great and how there's a big opportunity to level up.
Lenny Rachitsky：所以我想从我完全相信的事情开始，我喜欢你对此有非常强烈的看法，这就是产品管理职业的现状，以及大多数产品经理并不是那么出色，以及如何有很大的提升机会。
You just talk about what you've seen there and you're just thinking here.
你只是谈论你在那里看到的，你只是在这里思考的。
Shaun Clowes: Yeah, it's honestly a big conundrum for me.
Shaun Clowes：是的，这对我来说确实是一个大难题。
I think it's actually part of...
我认为这实际上是...的一部分
It's grandiose to say so, a bit of my life's work.
这么说真是太宏伟了，这是我一生的工作。
Why is it that product management is still such a relatively undeveloped discipline?
为什么产品管理仍然是一门相对不发达的学科？
We're 15 to 20 years into this thing.
我们已经研究这件事 15 到 20 年了。
You would've thought that it would be less random than it is.
您可能会认为它的随机性比实际情况要低。
The outcomes are random, the behaviors are random, individual performance is random, seemingly.
表面上看，结果是随机的，行为是随机的，个人表现是随机的。
And so there's something about the current state of product management that isn't getting at the truly important things, the truly value-added things, the right way to think about problems, the right way to think through problems, the abstract reasoning that's needed, there's something that isn't working about it.
因此，产品管理的当前状态有些东西没有抓住真正重要的事情，真正增值的事情，思考问题的正确方法，思考问题的正确方法，所需的抽象推理，有些东西不起作用。
I spent a long time trying to put my finger on it and then be like, "How do you reproducibly reproduce that?" Reproducibly produce people who can really be really great product managers.
我花了很长时间试图把手指放在上面，然后问，“你如何可重复地重现它？”可重复培养真正能够成为优秀产品经理的人才。
Shaun Clowes: The thing is that if you think all the way back to it, I spent a long time as an engineer and people always talk about 10 times engineers and I wanted to be a 10 times engineer.
Shaun Clowes：问题是，如果你回想一下，我花了很长时间担任工程师，人们总是谈论 10 倍工程师，而我想成为一名 10 倍工程师。
I'll leave it to others to decide to tell you whether or not I was or I wasn't, but certainly I wanted to be and I tried to be a really great engineer.
我会把它留给其他人来决定告诉你我是否是或不是，但我当然想成为并且我试图成为一名真正伟大的工程师。
And it must be true that if there's 10 times engineers, and I would argue they definitely are, they must be 10 times product managers too.
确实，如果有 10 倍的工程师（我认为他们肯定是），那么他们也一定有 10 倍的产品经理。
But at the same time, those 10 times product managers, because product management is ultimately about leverage, so it's about helping other people have dramatically more impact than they would if they were unorganized that they didn't have somebody to organize the goals and what we're trying to achieve, then that means that a 10 times product manager has 100 times return or more because they're 10 timesing the return on 10 times resources.
但与此同时，那些10倍产品经理，因为产品管理最终是关于杠杆作用的，所以它是为了帮助其他人产生更大的影响力，如果他们没有组织，他们没有人来组织目标和我们想要实现的目标，那么这意味着10倍产品经理有100倍或更多的回报，因为他们是10倍资源回报的10倍。
Shaun Clowes: So the outcomes are so wild, like wildly distributed and the benefits are so good that you would've thought that it would've behooved us.
肖恩·克劳斯：所以结果是如此疯狂，就像广泛分布一样，而且好处如此之好，以至于你会认为这是我们理所应当的。
There would've been a way that this had evolved and improved and really gotten way crisper than it has, but here we are.
本来应该有一种方式可以让它进化和改进，并且变得比现在更加清晰，但我们现在就这样了。
I'm not saying that we haven't gotten better, we 100% have, but I think we could all say that we're not reliably producing 10 times product managers every day of the week.
我并不是说我们没有变得更好，我们 100% 已经变得更好，但我想我们都可以说我们并没有可靠地每周每天产出 10 倍的产品经理。
Lenny Rachitsky: I love this point and it's especially painful that when someone works with a PM that's not great.
Lenny Rachitsky：我喜欢这一点，尤其令人痛苦的是，当有人与产品经理一起工作时，情况并不好。
There's just this meme of why do I need PMs?
这就是为什么我需要 PM 的模因？
PMs are useless, PMs suck, and it just creates that no one's ever like, "Engineers are useless or designers are useless." But there's so many people are like, "I don't need product managers on our team.
产品经理毫无用处，产品经理很糟糕，而且它只会导致没人喜欢“工程师没用或设计师没用”。但有很多人会说，“我的团队不需要产品经理。
Never hire a PM," and it just sets the whole profession back.
永远不要雇佣产品经理”，这只会让整个行业倒退。
Shaun Clowes: When I first started out in PM somebody, it's obviously a chestnut, but he pointed out that realistically when you're a product manager, your job is to say no to 90% of things that get brought your way.
Shaun Clowes：当我第一次开始 PM 某人时，这显然是一个栗子，但他指出，实际上，当你是一名产品经理时，你的工作就是对 90% 的事情说不。
And so that kind of makes you the bad person pretty much from the start.
因此，这几乎从一开始就让你成为坏人。
And so you're saying no to 90%, so you can say yes to 10% and that kind of puts you behind the eight-ball right at the very beginning, and so you have to very quickly get runs on the board.
所以你对 90% 说不，所以你可以对 10% 说是，这会让你一开始就落后于八球，所以你必须很快在板上跑动。
You have to prove to have the right insights, to have the right data, to make the right decisions or you don't get another go, you don't get another swing at it.
你必须证明自己拥有正确的洞察力、正确的数据、做出正确的决策，否则你就无法再次尝试，无法再次尝试。
So it makes sense that product managers are the easiest to single out and criticize, but that is also what makes it the funnest thing.
因此，产品经理是最容易被挑出来和批评的，这也是有道理的，但这也是它最有趣的原因。
Shaun Clowes: If you think about why do we do this?
Shaun Clowes：如果你想一想我们为什么要这样做？
Somebody once asked me, "Would you retire?
曾经有人问我：“你会退休吗？
Why do people do what they do?" Because certainly at some point it isn't just about the money and at the end of the day product management is so damn fun because it's about trying to figure out an edge.
人们为什么要做他们所做的事？”因为当然在某些时候这不仅仅是钱的问题，归根结底，产品管理非常有趣，因为它是关于试图找出优势。
It's like trying to look at the world, find the portion of the chessboard that isn't occupied, but that is valuable and find a way to get into it, invade it and destroy it.
这就像试图观察世界，找到棋盘上未被占据但有价值的部分，并找到进入它、入侵它并摧毁它的方法。
It's decisions under uncertainty and that makes it unbelievably fun.
这是在不确定性下做出的决定，这使得它变得非常有趣。
Really, really painful and very frustrating and very hard to convince people, but very, very fun.
真的非常非常痛苦，非常令人沮丧，很难说服人们，但非常非常有趣。
So in equal measures basically.
所以基本上是平等的。
Lenny Rachitsky: What's the answer, Shaun?
莱尼·拉奇茨基：答案是什么，肖恩？
How do we solve this problem?
我们如何解决这个问题呢？
I know you said it's your life's work.
我知道你说过这是你一生的工作。
What do you find actually helps most in helping PMs level up and become say 10 X PMs?
您发现什么对于帮助 PM 升级并成为 10 X PM 实际上最有帮助？
Shaun Clowes: I think the most important thing and the chestnut that I repeat to everybody is that at the end of the day, the time you spend looking inside the building doesn't really benefit you very much at all.
Shaun Clowes：我认为最重要的事情和我向大家重复的栗子是，归根结底，你花在看建筑物内部的时间并没有真正给你带来太多好处。
And Steve Blanken, people used to talk about you should be spending 80% of your time thinking about things going on outside the building.
Steve Blanken，人们过去常说你应该花 80% 的时间思考大楼外发生的事情。
You might not be outside the building, but you should spend 80% of your time thinking outside the building.
你可能不在大楼外面，但你应该花80%的时间在大楼外面思考。
And I would say that very small number of PMs do that.
我想说，很少有产品经理这样做。
They get dragged into internal politics, they get dragged into scrum management or scrum execution or product delivery, like elements of the delivery thing and you just can't win that way.
他们被拖入内部政治，他们被拖入 Scrum 管理或 Scrum 执行或产品交付，就像交付的元素一样，你就是无法以这种方式获胜。
You just can't win that way.
这样你就赢不了。
You can never get an A because you're fundamentally not solving the job.
你永远不可能得到 A，因为你从根本上没有解决这个问题。
The job is not about execution or anything, it's about finding reliable, differentiated value that you can uniquely deliver into the market.
这项工作与执行或其他无关，而是寻找可以独特地向市场提供的可靠、差异化的价值。
Shaun Clowes: So I would say if there's one thing, two things I would say actually that I generally guide product managers to do, one is to always start from the point of view outside the building in every document in everything, always talk from the customer's perspective, from the market's perspective, from the competitor's perspective, and the people who listen to me on that I would say get better almost immediately because they're starting from a place that's easier to understand and then secondarily be data informed.
Shaun Clowes：所以我会说，如果有一件事，我实际上会说两件事，我通常指导产品经理做，一是在每件文档中的每件事中始终从建筑物外部的角度出发，始终从客户的角度，从市场的角度，从竞争对手的角度进行讨论，而那些听我的人几乎立即变得更好，因为他们从一个更容易理解的地方开始，然后是数据通知。
Shaun Clowes: They use all of that view of the world, but don't just make up a bunch of statements, support that statements with anecdotes and bits of data.
肖恩·克劳斯：他们使用所有的世界观，但不只是编造一堆陈述，而是用轶事和数据来支持这些陈述。
It doesn't have to be a treatise, but convince everybody of what the world really looks like and what the opportunities ahead of the company looks like and good things happen to you.
它不一定是一篇论文，但要让每个人相信世界到底是什么样子，公司前面的机会是什么样子，以及美好的事情会发生在你身上。
And all of a sudden you go from a world where nobody wants to help you get anything done to where everybody wants you to win.
突然之间，你从一个没有人愿意帮助你完成任何事情的世界变成了每个人都希望你获胜的世界。
They want you to win and they may not give you everything you want, but they certainly will try because they're like, "Well, of all the bets we could make, this is a good one."
他们希望你获胜，他们可能不会给你你想要的一切，但他们肯定会尝试，因为他们会说，“好吧，在我们可以做的所有赌注中，这是一个很好的赌注。”
Lenny Rachitsky: I imagine many people listening to this are thinking, "Oh, I am that person.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：我想很多人听到这个都会想，“哦，我就是那个人。
I talk to customers all the time.
我一直在和顾客交谈。
I'm always interacting, looking at research, putting data together." And what you're saying is you're probably not doing that enough.
我总是在互动、研究研究、整理数据。”你的意思是你可能做得还不够。
Is there anything that you could help someone recognize of, "No, you're actually not doing this enough and you think you are but you're not."
有什么可以帮助别人认识到“不，你实际上做得还不够，你以为自己做得足够，但实际上却做得不够”。
Shaun Clowes: It's one thing to say you're spending a lot of time looking outside the building.
Shaun Clowes：说你花了很多时间观察大楼外面是一回事。
It's a whole other thing to hear from the places you don't normally hear from.
从你通常听不到的地方听到的声音完全是另一回事。
So avoid availability or confirmation bias.
因此要避免可用性或确认偏差。
Most of the time people go talk to the people they always talk to and they learn nothing particularly new.
大多数时候，人们和他们经常交谈的人交谈，但他们并没有学到什么特别新的东西。
They don't synthesize the results that they got from that conversation.
他们不会综合从谈话中得到的结果。
They don't seek out the counterfactual, they don't seek out the proof that they're wrong.
他们不寻找反事实，也不寻找证明自己错误的证据。
They don't analyze what their competitors are doing and figure out what that must tell you about the market.
他们不会分析竞争对手在做什么，也不会弄清楚竞争对手在做什么，从而了解市场的哪些信息。
They don't bring back the data of how their product is actually being used versus how people say it's being used.
他们不会带回产品实际使用情况与人们所说的使用情况的数据。
It's like all data and no analysis is not very useful.
就好像所有的数据都不分析是没有多大用处的。
Everyone can bring back an omnibus edition of random stuff I heard on a Tuesday, but the competitive advantage is extracted out of figuring out what other people don't see, figuring out where we are wrong, figuring out where a well-placed bet could have dramatically outlandish returns.
每个人都可以带回我在周二听到的随机内容的综合版本，但竞争优势是通过弄清楚其他人看不到的东西、弄清楚我们错在哪里、弄清楚在哪里下注得当可能会带来惊人的异常回报而获得的。
Shaun Clowes: And so I think firstly, people often say that they do a lot of this stuff, but they actually don't because they don't have any structured way of doing it.
Shaun Clowes：所以我认为首先，人们经常说他们做了很多这样的事情，但实际上他们没有这样做，因为他们没有任何结构化的方式来做这件事。
So what they really mean is every now and then I get in a customer call or every now and then I get stuck into an escalation.
所以他们真正的意思是我时不时地接到客户电话，或者时不时地陷入升级。
And so they're kind of conveniently bucketing it.
所以他们很方便地把它装进桶里。
So firstly they don't do it in a very structured way, then they don't bring back analysis, they get true insights from that thing, so they don't really gain very much at all.
因此，首先他们没有以非常结构化的方式来做，然后他们没有带回分析，他们从那件事中获得真正的见解，所以他们根本没有真正获得太多。
It's just more activity, no outcomes.
这只是更多的活动，没有结果。
People do far too much activity with not enough outcomes and there just isn't enough time in the day to do that to be successful.
人们做了太多的活动却没有取得足够的成果，而且一天中没有足够的时间来完成这些活动以取得成功。
Lenny Rachitsky: You as a product leader is at the Venn diagram center of the sweet spot of where this podcast has been going recently, which is product and growth and how AI helps you with all these things.
Lenny Rachitsky：作为产品负责人，您正处于该播客最近发展的最佳点的维恩图中心，即产品和增长以及人工智能如何帮助您完成所有这些事情。
And so to follow a thread there with synthesizing and understanding what people are saying, user research and surveys and all these things, have you found any tools that you and your team have found really useful to help you do this more efficiently versus traditionally just manually going through all the stuff and finding patterns?
因此，为了遵循综合和理解人们所说的话、用户研究和调查以及所有这些事情的线索，您和您的团队是否找到了真正有用的工具来帮助您更有效地完成这项工作，而不是传统上手动浏览所有内容并寻找模式？
Shaun Clowes: Yeah, so firstly, stepping back a little bit just into the motherhood and apple pie portion of qualitative research or whatever, I find that most people don't even understand or don't start with a rigorous foundation in what they're going to need to do to get the answers that they want.
肖恩·克劳斯：是的，所以首先，退一步讨论定性研究或其他什么的母性和苹果派部分，我发现大多数人甚至不理解或没有从严格的基础开始，了解他们需要做什么才能得到他们想要的答案。
So for example, your listeners have probably heard about the Nielsen number before, but basically the idea is that once you interview between 7 and 14 people, you stop learning new things.
例如，您的听众之前可能听说过尼尔森数字，但基本上的想法是，一旦您采访了 7 到 14 个人，您就停止学习新事物。
Less than 7, you don't learn enough, more than 14, you start learning anything new.
少于 7，你学得还不够，超过 14，你开始学习新的东西。
And so if you interviewed two people, you probably don't have enough data.
因此，如果您采访了两个人，您可能没有足够的数据。
If you interviewed 22, you probably had too much, so they don't even right size their efforts.
如果你采访了 22 个人，你可能做得太多了，所以他们甚至没有正确衡量自己的努力程度。
So that's a problem.
所以这是一个问题。
So they don't start that way.
所以他们不会那样开始。
Then they go into these conversations asking leading questions, which really are designed to get the customer to say what they already want to be true, which is so they haven't done enough research or they've done too much and then they've blown up all of the results before they've even heard anything.
然后他们进入这些对话，提出引导性问题，这些问题的真正目的是让客户说出他们已经想要的事实，也就是说，他们没有做足够的研究，或者他们做了太多的研究，然后他们在听到任何消息之前就把所有的结果都搞砸了。
Shaun Clowes: If you don't right size your research and you don't set this up to learn, then you're going to lose.
Shaun Clowes：如果你没有正确调整你的研究规模，并且你没有将其设置为学习，那么你就会失败。
No amounts of applying LLMs or any type of kind of structured reasoning is going to help you.
无论申请多少法学硕士或任何类型的结构化推理都不会帮助你。
Because you just basically you're reading back what you want to hear or some weird summarized version of what you want to hear.
因为你基本上只是在回读你想听的内容，或者你想听的内容的一些奇怪的总结版本。
But stepping back from all of that, what I like to do specifically getting to LLMs is I think that we live in just the most amazing time for product managers right now in terms of being able to analyze vast quantities of information and see the common threads.
但抛开这一切，我特别喜欢做的就是攻读法学硕士，我认为我们现在生活在产品经理最令人惊奇的时代，能够分析大量信息并看到共同点。
And so let me give you few examples of that.
让我举几个例子。
One might be you can do a bunch of customer interviews, you can put a bunch of customer interviews into ChatGPT and you can say, "Hey, ChatGPT, this is my strategy.
一个可能是你可以进行一堆客户访谈，你可以将一堆客户访谈放入 ChatGPT，然后你可以说，“嘿，ChatGPT，这是我的策略。
Tell me where my strategy does not fit what these customers talked about."
告诉我我的策略哪里不符合这些客户所谈论的内容。”
Shaun Clowes: It's all about the not, not where it does, where it does not.
Shaun Clowes：一切都与不有关，不在于它在哪里做了，哪里没有。
People spend far too much time looking for what they're hoping to see, not for what they're not looking to see.
人们花费太多时间寻找他们希望看到的东西，而不是他们不想看到的东西。
So you can literally ask ChatGPT to help you find where the customer is probing at the edges of what you're trying to do, where it's wrong, where what you're saying is not what they believe.
因此，您实际上可以要求 ChatGPT 帮助您找到客户在您尝试做的事情的边缘进行探索的地方，哪里是错误的，以及您所说的与他们不相信的地方。
And you can ask it questions like that.
你可以问它这样的问题。
You can ask it what your customers are saying would better fit what your competitors are saying.
您可以询问它，您的客户所说的内容更适合您的竞争对手所说的内容。
So you can basically say, you can copy and paste one of your competitor's positioning documents into ChatGPT and say, "Is this a better fit for what they have said than my thing?" Which is you can summarize your own strategy, you can take your competitors but public documents and you can ask it to summarize what their strategy probably is.
所以你基本上可以说，你可以将竞争对手的一份定位文档复制并粘贴到 ChatGPT 中，然后说：“这比我的东西更适合他们所说的内容吗？”你可以总结自己的策略，你可以拿你的竞争对手但公开的文件，你可以要求它总结他们的策略可能是什么。
Shaun Clowes: And it's actually supposedly good at that because mostly your public documents are actually a summary or at least they're derivative of what your strategy is.
Shaun Clowes：实际上据说它很擅长这一点，因为大多数公开文件实际上都是摘要，或者至少它们是您的策略的衍生品。
So it will give you crazy insights into what other people's, literally their product strategy at times creepy like, "Oh, they will probably do this, they will probably do that.
因此，它会让你疯狂地了解其他人的产品策略，有时会令人毛骨悚然，“哦，他们可能会这样做，他们可能会这样做。
It's more likely they would do this than they would do that." And so normally that type of insight was hard one, it took a lot of sweat work.
他们这样做的可能性比那样做的可能性更大。”通常情况下，这种洞察力是很难的，需要付出大量的汗水。
You basically get to read a lot of stuff.
基本上你可以读很多东西。
You kind of had to use your brain as this big summarization machine and eventually you knew what you felt about all the things you had read, but you couldn't summarize why.
你必须将你的大脑用作这个大型总结机器，最终你知道你对读过的所有内容的感受，但你无法总结原因。
LLMs let you get to that really, really, really quickly in a very structured way, but only if you push at the edges, provoke the answers you don't want to hear, provoke the problems, try and prove to yourself that you are wrong, I think is the easiest way to start trying to use some of these tools.
法学硕士可以让你以非常结构化的方式快速真正地做到这一点，但前提是你要突破边缘，引发你不想听到的答案，引发问题，尝试向自己证明你是错的，我认为这是开始尝试使用其中一些工具的最简单方法。
Lenny Rachitsky: I love that.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：我喜欢这个。
And it sounds like in your experience you're just using straight-up OpenAI, ChatGPT, Claude, not any specific tool for user research for this specific use case.
听起来，根据您的经验，您只是使用直接的 OpenAI、ChatGPT、Claude，而不是针对此特定用例进行用户研究的任何特定工具。
Shaun Clowes: No, mostly I find that the straight-up LLMs themselves are good enough and we do have some internal tooling that we built around, I don't know if you've ever had Sachin Rekhi on the show, you may have.
Shaun Clowes：不，主要是我发现直接的法学硕士本身就足够好了，我们确实有一些围绕我们构建的内部工具，我不知道你是否曾经在节目中邀请过 Sachin Rekhi，你可能有。
He was a product leader pretty well known in the gross community, and he was a leader at LinkedIn for a long time and he used to call this concept a Feedback River, and he basically said that really smart product managers are constantly swimming at a Feedback River.
他是一位在大众社区中非常有名的产品领导者，他在 LinkedIn 担任了很长一段时间的领导者，他曾经将这个概念称为“反馈河”，他基本上说，真正聪明的产品经理不断地在反馈河中游泳。
They set out to surround themselves by Feedback River and I really deeply believe in that.
他们开始用反馈河包围自己，我对此深信不疑。
It's like, "Okay, how can I surround myself with user interview data, with direct customer feedback, with NPS data, with competitor information?" Like I'm always trying to wash myself over with information.
就像，“好吧，我怎样才能让自己充满用户访谈数据、直接客户反馈、NPS 数据和竞争对手信息？”就像我总是试图用信息来洗刷自己一样。
And where I'm going with this is that LLMs and tooling based on it can be exceptionally good for this.
我想说的是，法学硕士和基于它的工具对此非常有用。
Shaun Clowes: So for example, at Confluent we get a ton of inbound customer requests, as you can imagine coming from the field or directly from customers.
Shaun Clowes：举个例子，在 Confluence，我们收到了大量的入站客户请求，您可以想象这些请求来自现场或直接来自客户。
We use LLMs to take in those asks to summarize what they're about, to find other asks that are like that one, really in a compelling way, a real way, like a semantic way, not other words, exactly the same, are these the same concept?
我们使用法学硕士来接受这些问题，总结它们的内容，找到类似的其他问题，真正以一种令人信服的方式，一种真实的方式，就像语义方式，而不是其他词，完全相同，这些是相同的概念吗？
So that we can look across all of the inbound demand on us and say, "Well, the most popular idea is this one and is getting more popular.
这样我们就可以审视所有对我们的入境需求，然后说：“嗯，最受欢迎的想法是这个，而且越来越受欢迎。
The least popular idea is this one.
最不受欢迎的想法是这个。
It is getting less popular." In a really deep rich way, even across hundreds or thousands of pieces of inbound feedback.
它越来越不受欢迎。”以一种非常深入丰富的方式，甚至跨越数百或数千条入站反馈。
I think it's a really great time to be a product manager if you can put these types of tools to work, but they don't do the job for you, they just help you do these things that are intricate in that job of finding the gaps, finding the opportunities, finding the common threads without necessarily having to do all of it just inside your wear-wear, just inside your brain.
我认为，如果你能使用这些类型的工具来工作，那么这对成为一名产品经理来说是一个非常好的时机，但它们并不能为你完成工作，它们只是帮助你完成工作中复杂的事情，找到差距，找到机会，找到共同点，而不必在你的穿着中，在你的大脑中完成所有这些工作。
Lenny Rachitsky: I'm going to stay in this AI river that we're in right now and ask a couple more AI-related questions.
Lenny Rachitsky：我将留在我们现在所处的人工智能河流中，并提出更多与人工智能相关的问题。
And this may be what you just said, but I'm curious if there's more here.
这可能是你刚才说的，但我很好奇这里是否还有更多内容。
You kind of have this hot take that the way AI will most impact product management is data management and data versus models you're building or anything else.
您认为人工智能对产品管理影响最大的方式是数据管理以及数据与您正在构建的模型或其他任何东西。
Can you talk about what you've seen there?
你能谈谈你在那里看到了什么吗？
Shaun Clowes: Yeah, I mean, I think there's two implications for people as they're building products based on AI and as they're thinking about AI in their workflow.
Shaun Clowes：是的，我的意思是，我认为这对人们来说有两个影响，因为他们正在构建基于人工智能的产品，并且他们在工作流程中考虑人工智能。
So let's start with the first one, because that's how product managers do product management things.
那么让我们从第一个开始，因为这就是产品经理进行产品管理的方式。
You just asked this question of should it be specific tools built to make AI easier for product managers to use?
您刚才问了这个问题：是否应该构建特定工具来使人工智能更易于产品经理使用？
Or is it in fact more general models being put to work?
或者实际上是更通用的模型正在投入使用？
At the end of the day, these models are very, very, very smart, but they're also insanely dumb and everyone knows that, insanely dumb.
归根结底，这些模型非常非常聪明，但它们也非常愚蠢，每个人都知道，非常愚蠢。
In other words, they really only know what they were trained on or what you bring to them right at that moment.
换句话说，他们实际上只知道他们接受的培训是什么，或者你当时给他们带来了什么。
In that millisecond, and then they will forget it immediately.
在那一毫秒内，他们就会立即忘记它。
And it's very easy to convince yourself that isn't true, but it is actually what really matters.
你很容易让自己相信这不是真的，但这实际上才是真正重要的。
And let me add one extra piece that makes that really important.
让我添加一个额外的部分，这使得这一点非常重要。
Shaun Clowes: At the end of the day, information has a decay rate.
Shaun Clowes：最终，信息会衰减。
So think about customer feedback, it has a decay rate or what your competitors are doing has a decay rate.
因此，考虑一下客户反馈，它有一个衰减率，或者你的竞争对手正在做的事情有一个衰减率。
So any new piece of data decays in its value to your decision-making very, very quickly, very, very quickly.
因此，任何新数据对你决策的价值都会非常非常快地衰减。
You can plot your own decay chart if you want to, but the answer is very, very quickly.
如果您愿意，您可以绘制自己的衰减图，但答案非常非常快。
And so when you think about the job which is synthesizing all of this very complicated information to make good decisions, what does that mean?
因此，当您想到综合所有这些非常复杂的信息以做出正确决策的工作时，这意味着什么？
Well, you've got this synthesis machine, which is this LLM thing that's going to help you do synthesis, but if it hasn't got all that data to do synthesis on top of, it's got nothing.
好吧，你已经有了这个综合机，这是法学硕士的东西，它将帮助你进行综合，但如果它没有获得所有数据来进行综合，那么它就什么也没有。
And so that means that LLMs can only be as good as the data they are given and how recent that data is.
因此，这意味着法学硕士的好坏取决于他们所获得的数据以及这些数据的最新程度。
They're ultimately like information shredders.
它们最终就像信息粉碎机。
Shaun Clowes: They are limitless information eaters.
Shaun Clowes：他们是无限的信息吞噬者。
You can never have enough information to give to an LLM to truly gain its value.
你永远不可能有足够的信息来提供给法学硕士以真正获得其价值。
The more things you give it, the better it gets.
你给它的东西越多，它就越好。
Broadly speaking, that's just not perfect, but that's close enough.
从广义上讲，这并不完美，但已经足够接近了。
And so what that means is as an internal product leader or putting LLMs to work, you need to figure out how to bring as much information about customers or their asks or your competitors, all of it.
因此，这意味着作为内部产品领导者或让法学硕士投入工作，您需要弄清楚如何提供尽可能多的有关客户、他们的要求或您的竞争对手的信息，所有这些信息。
How much can you find all of it and bring it together and give it to the LLM either in your tooling or even in just copying and pasting or whatever your flow is going to be, that's one thing.
你能找到多少所有的东西，把它们放在一起，然后把它交给法学硕士，无论是在你的工具中，还是只是复制和粘贴，或者无论你的流程是什么，这是一回事。
But then if you take it beyond that and you go, "Okay, well now I'm a product leader and I'm building an app and I want to put AI in my app, what will make my AI experience really great?"
但如果你超越这个范围，你会说：“好吧，现在我是产品领导者，我正在构建一个应用程序，我想将人工智能放入我的应用程序中，什么会让我的人工智能体验真正很棒？”
Shaun Clowes: It's definitely not going to be the models because these models are mostly going to be somewhat replaceable.
Shaun Clowes：绝对不会是模型，因为这些模型大多是可以替换的。
And you could say, "Okay, well, is it going to be the prompts?" Maybe, but certainly good prompts are better than others, and that's kind of an ongoing investment you'd probably want to make to ask better questions to get the LLM to deliver better answers.
你可以说，“好吧，那是提示吗？”也许吧，但肯定好的提示比其他提示更好，这是您可能想要进行的一项持续投资，以提出更好的问题，以使法学硕士提供更好的答案。
But it's obvious that the real answer is the context, all the context you're going to give it, all the data you're going to copy and paste.
但很明显，真正的答案是上下文，您要提供的所有上下文，您要复制和粘贴的所有数据。
And so if you think about, let's say I'm building a, I have no relationship to this, but let's say I was trying to build a human capital like a HCM bot, like an AI bot.
因此，如果你想一想，假设我正在构建一个，我与此无关，但假设我正在尝试构建一个人力资本，例如 HCM 机器人，例如 AI 机器人。
Let's say I was working at Workday and I was trying to bring an AI bot.
假设我在 Workday 工作，我试图引入一个人工智能机器人。
It's pretty obvious that the smarts of the bot would really be related to all of the employee information, but not just that, it would be the benefit's information, it would be the legal situation in the country where that person is currently working.
很明显，机器人的智能确实与所有员工信息相关，但不仅如此，它还包括福利信息，还包括该人当前工作所在国家/地区的法律情况。
Shaun Clowes: It would be the company's policies and procedures that apply to it.
Shaun Clowes：适用的是公司的政策和程序。
So you get what I mean, by about these kind of the jumps of logic and the jumps of data and the way data is all linked together.
所以你明白我的意思了，关于逻辑的跳跃和数据的跳跃以及数据链接在一起的方式。
If you want to have a smart AI experience, you'll convince yourself that all I really need to do is get a model and wire it in and I'll build a little pipeline that will suck some data in and it will whack it into the LLM.
如果你想拥有智能人工智能体验，你会说服自己，我真正需要做的就是获得一个模型并将其连接起来，我将构建一个小管道来吸收一些数据，并将其打入法学硕士。
And if you think that way, you're going to be very sad, very, very sad for a very long time because you are constantly going to be wrestling with how do I get data to this thing?
如果你这样想，你会在很长一段时间内感到非常悲伤，非常非常悲伤，因为你会不断地思考如何获取这个东西的数据？
How do I get good data to this thing?
我如何获得这件事的良好数据？
How do we get timely data to this thing?
我们如何及时获取这个东西的数据？
How do I get well-structured data to this thing?
我如何获得这个东西的结构良好的数据？
Shaun Clowes: And so it's a data management problem.
Shaun Clowes：所以这是一个数据管理问题。
It's getting access to good data, getting access to high quality data, getting access to timely data and getting it to the LLM to get the LLM to make a smart decision.
它是获取良好的数据、获取高质量的数据、获取及时的数据并将其提供给法学硕士，让法学硕士做出明智的决定。
That's where 90% of the calories go.
90%的卡路里都去那里了。
Maybe it's a bit like Einstein's thing, "It's 10% inspiration, 90% perspiration." Nobody wants to hear it.
也许这有点像爱因斯坦的话，“10%的灵感，90%的汗水”。没有人想听。
Everybody wants to just think about what these really cool models and how smart they are, and the next one will be even smarter.
每个人都想想想这些真正酷的模型是什么以及它们有多聪明，下一个模型将会更加聪明。
But really it's just the hard work of getting really good data to the LLMs to get them to do good things.
但实际上，这只是向法学硕士提供真正好的数据以让他们做好事的艰苦工作。
Lenny Rachitsky: It sounds really obvious as you make this case.
Lenny Rachitsky：当你提出这个问题时，这听起来非常明显。
It makes me think about at the Lenny and Friends Summit, Mikey Krieger talked about how he had the two types of PM groups within Anthropic.
这让我想起在 Lenny 和朋友峰会上，Mikey Krieger 谈到了他如何在 Anthropic 内部拥有两种类型的 PM 小组。
One was focusing on user experience product and the other was working on the model research side, and they realized that all of the success came from the model research work, like making the model and the data they provided the model was where all the value came from, not just optimizing the user experience and they're just putting more and more of their product team on just that versus tweaking UX and buttons and things like that.
一个专注于用户体验产品，另一个专注于模型研究方面，他们意识到所有的成功都来自模型研究工作，比如制作模型和他们为模型提供的数据是所有价值的来源，而不仅仅是优化用户体验，他们只是将越来越多的产品团队投入到这一点上，而不是调整用户体验和按钮之类的东西。
Lenny Rachitsky: Something sort of related, I'm just going to ask one more AI question.
Lenny Rachitsky：有点相关，我只想再问一个人工智能问题。
I don't want every talk to end up being just all AI, but something that's kind of been a meme recently, and I know you have a perspective on this, is that AI makes it really easy to build products.
我不希望每一次演讲最终都只是人工智能，但最近有点像模因，我知道你对此有一个看法，那就是人工智能让构建产品变得非常容易。
So in the future, if you can easily clone, say, a B2B SaaS app like Salesforce or Atlassian or whatever your favorite B2B SaaS app, what happens to these businesses long-term?
因此，在未来，如果您可以轻松克隆 B2B SaaS 应用程序（例如 Salesforce 或 Atlassian 或任何您最喜欢的 B2B SaaS 应用程序），那么从长远来看，这些企业会发生什么？
Do they just become, are they all in trouble?
他们是不是都陷入了麻烦？
Are there going to be 100 Salesforce competitors?
Salesforce 会有 100 个竞争对手吗？
What's your sense and prediction on what might happen there?
您对那里可能发生的事情有何看法和预测？
Shaun Clowes: Yeah, I think it's really weird.
肖恩·克劳斯：是的，我认为这真的很奇怪。
I think people really underestimate where the value is created in these applications and they just kind of get it completely wrong, and I'm not sure why that is.
我认为人们确实低估了这些应用程序中创造价值的地方，他们完全错误地理解了这一点，我不确定这是为什么。
So if you think you bet.
所以如果你认为你打赌的话。
So I spent a long time at Atlassian, so I worked a lot on Jira, which many people know, and I spent a long time at Salesforce, so I spent a lot of time in the CRM ecosystem, the marketing ecosystem and all the rest of it.
所以我在 Atlassian 工作了很长时间，所以我在 Jira 上做了很多工作，很多人都知道，而且我在 Salesforce 工作了很长时间，所以我在 CRM 生态系统、营销生态系统以及其他所有方面都花了很多时间。
If you want it to be not charitable, you'd step back and you'd look at all those applications and you'd say, "They're all just forms on databases." You'd say, "The Jira is a form on a database, Workday is form on a database, so Salesforce." They're all forms on databases, all vertical SaaS or business SaaS is ultimately forms on databases.
如果你不希望它是慈善性的，你会退后一步，查看所有这些应用程序，然后你会说：“它们都只是数据库上的表格。”您可能会说，“Jira 是数据库上的表单，Workday 是数据库上的表单，Salesforce 也是如此。”都是数据库上的形式，所有垂直SaaS或者商业SaaS最终都是数据库上的形式。
And you're be like, "Well, how hard can that be to replicate?"
你会说，“好吧，复制有多难？”
Shaun Clowes: And the answer is unbelievably hard, unbelievably hard.
肖恩·克劳斯：答案是令人难以置信的困难，令人难以置信的困难。
And people just think, "You totally get it wrong." Because it's not actually just about the data model.
人们只是想：“你完全搞错了。”因为它实际上不仅仅是数据模型。
So if you think about, if it formed some databases, it's these beautiful user experiences that sit on top of data models.
因此，如果你想一想，如果它形成了一些数据库，那么这些美丽的用户体验就位于数据模型之上。
So whatever the object is, it might be a customer object or a campaign object or an employee object, you could say that, "Well, there's some elements of lock-in in the object, the object itself, like the fields of the object." I'm like, "Pretty boring.
因此，无论对象是什么，它可能是客户对象、活动对象或员工对象，您可以说，“嗯，对象中有一些锁定元素，对象本身，例如对象的字段。”我想，“真无聊。
That's not very interesting." But sure, maybe.
这不太有趣。”但当然，也许吧。
Certainly there's some value in being the system of record like the default that everybody uses.
当然，成为每个人都使用的默认记录系统是有一定价值的。
There's definitely some value in the UX.
用户体验肯定有一定的价值。
Like, "Well, I want to be the best HR-facing applications for working employee data." Yeah, there's some value there, but the real thing just staring at everybody in the face is it's all about the business rules.
就像，“嗯，我想成为工作员工数据的最佳面向人力资源的应用程序。”是的，这有一定的价值，但真正的问题是，每个人都关心的是业务规则。
Shaun Clowes: That is what drives the lock-in because why do you buy Workday?
Shaun Clowes：这就是锁定的原因，因为你为什么购买 Workday？
You don't buy Workday for its out-of-the-box configuration.
您购买 Workday 并不是因为其开箱即用的配置。
You buy Workday because you want to configure it to be Lenny Inc's HR processes.
您购买 Workday 是因为您想将其配置为 Lenny Inc 的 HR 流程。
It becomes Lenny Inc's Workday.
它成为莱尼公司的工作日。
It's not Shaun Inc's Workday, it's Lenny Inc's Workday.
这不是肖恩公司的工作日，而是莱尼公司的工作日。
And actually the longer you have the software, the more it becomes that, the more it becomes less and less like Workday and more and more like your specific company.
实际上，您拥有该软件的时间越长，它就越变得越来越不像 Workday，而越来越像您的特定公司。
Which makes sense because it was built to be configured to meet the needs of any specific company, and every company is their own precious snowflake.
这是有道理的，因为它的构建是为了满足任何特定公司的需求而构建的，而每个公司都是自己珍贵的雪花。
And as that happens, those configuration pieces, the bit that makes the application native and a fit for your organization makes it a fit for nobody else's organization and also makes it a black box to the point that you don't even understand how it works anymore.
当这种情况发生时，那些使应用程序成为本机并适合您的组织的配置部分使其不适合其他人的组织，也使其成为一个黑匣子，以至于您甚至不再了解它是如何工作的。
Shaun Clowes: If you went to, for example, Salesforce and you said, "Hey, could you define all of the processes by which software was sold inside Salesforce?" They couldn't tell you that without reading the code of their Salesforce instance.
Shaun Clowes：例如，如果您访问 Salesforce，您会说：“嘿，您能否定义在 Salesforce 内销售软件的所有流程？”如果不阅读 Salesforce 实例的代码，他们就无法告诉您这一点。
That's not a proprietary secret.
这不是专有秘密。
That's obviously true because over time, that's literally how sales happened.
这显然是正确的，因为随着时间的推移，销售实际上就是这样发生的。
There is no other way to do a sale other than through their internal tooling.
除了通过他们的内部工具之外，没有其他方法可以进行销售。
And so what that means is that it's not the UI that matters and it's not the data model that matters, although those are both very useful.
这意味着重要的不是 UI，也不是数据模型，尽管它们都非常有用。
It's the years and years and years of evolution of the underlying workflows of the product to support the customers, but also the customers evolving those workflows to make them work the way they do.
产品的底层工作流程经过多年的演变来支持客户，同时客户也不断发展这些工作流程，使它们按照自己的方式工作。
And so how does that impact AI companies?
那么这对人工智能公司有何影响？
You could say, "It's easier than ever to build forms on a database application."
您可以说，“在数据库应用程序上构建表单比以往任何时候都容易。”
Shaun Clowes: And so I'm like, "Yeah, okay, that presumably drives the incremental value of every new one of those to zero, right?" So probably leads to more power to the existing winning systems of record because there'll just be a gazillion competitors who would just more form some databases.
肖恩·克劳斯：所以我想，“是的，好吧，这可能会将每一个新产品的增量价值推向零，对吗？”因此，可能会给现有的获胜记录系统带来更多的权力，因为将会有无数的竞争对手，他们只会更多地形成一些数据库。
So like, "How would you ever choose between them?
就像，“你会如何在他们之间做出选择？
You may as well just go with the winner.
你也可以直接选择获胜者。
Nobody ever gets fired for buying Salesforce or whatever.
没有人会因为购买 Salesforce 或其他东西而被解雇。
You may as well start from the kind of the premier vendor." That's one element.
不妨从首要供应商的那种开始。”这是一个要素。
You could go the other way and you could say, "I've heard a few people mount this argument," which I think is really interesting that at the end of the day, agents are going to take away most of the use of that user interface.
你可以采取另一种方式，你可以说，“我听到一些人提出这个论点”，我认为这真的很有趣，最终，代理将剥夺该用户界面的大部分使用。
Shaun Clowes: So let's say for example, your Salesforce with Service Cloud, I've heard people say, "Well, a lot of those service agents might end up being replaced with agentic workflows.
Shaun Clowes：举例来说，您的 Salesforce 带有 Service Cloud，我听到人们说，“嗯，很多服务代理最终可能会被代理工作流程所取代。
That will mean that there is no person operating the UI.
这意味着没有人操作 UI。
If the UI doesn't even exist anymore, then why do you even need Salesforce?
如果 UI 甚至不再存在，那么为什么还需要 Salesforce？
We may as well just have raw database tables on who even needs forms of databases, you can literally just have databases." But that also doesn't make any sense either because the agents have to operate against the rules of the system and the rules are defined by the business processes.
我们也可以只拥有原始数据库表，了解谁甚至需要数据库形式，你实际上可以只拥有数据库。”但这也没有任何意义，因为代理必须根据系统规则进行操作，而这些规则是由业务流程定义的。
So think about Salesforce without a head.
所以想想没有头脑的 Salesforce。
Imagine Salesforce had no UI, it would still have those business rules that I was talking about.
想象一下 Salesforce 没有 UI，它仍然会有我正在谈论的那些业务规则。
And those business rules are what define what the agent should do.
这些业务规则定义了代理应该做什么。
They're almost telling the agent what it should do and how the world can operate, what is possible, what is allowed.
他们几乎是在告诉代理应该做什么、世界如何运作、什么是可能的、什么是允许的。
And so from my perspective, this idea that this just completely destroys the differentiation of these kind of business process SaaS applications just seems like a fantasy, a crazy fantasy.
因此，从我的角度来看，这种认为这完全破坏了此类业务流程 SaaS 应用程序差异化的想法似乎是一个幻想，一个疯狂的幻想。
Shaun Clowes: The only way I could really believe it is if you said, "Well, you could have a new startup that introspected all of the rules that are configured into a Salesforce to try and reverse engineer what your actual business processes are and then kind of operate on top of that." But the best place people to do that would be Salesforce themselves or Atlassian in Atlassian's case or Workday in Workday's case.
Shaun Clowes：我真正相信的唯一方法是，如果你说，“好吧，你可以有一个新的初创公司，它会反思配置到 Salesforce 中的所有规则，尝试对你的实际业务流程进行逆向工程，然后在此基础上进行操作。”但人们做这件事的最佳地点是 Salesforce 本身，或者是 Atlassian 的 Atlassian，或者是 Workday 的 Workday。
I just can't see a world in which this...
我只是看不到这样的世界......
I think one of two things could happen.
我认为有可能发生以下两种情况之一。
All this moving to AI makes those applications even better, even more unassailable, they basically get stronger.
所有这些向人工智能的转变使得这些应用程序变得更好，更无懈可击，它们基本上变得更强大。
It makes us stronger or it could enable some new level of applications that come from a more platform based thing, so less a domain specific thing like you ACM or ERP or engineering or less of the domain specific stuff.
它使我们变得更强大，或者它可以实现一些新级别的应用程序，这些应用程序来自更多基于平台的东西，所以更少的特定领域的东西，如 ACM 或 ERP 或工程或更少的特定领域的东西。
Shaun Clowes: It could enable a more platform like play where you have more business objects and business objects have rules.
Shaun Clowes：它可以实现一个更像游戏的平台，其中您有更多的业务对象，并且业务对象有规则。
And you could imagine a world in which there's kind of a whole evolution of new more platform like SaaS applications that do more than one business function worth of the business rules and the way things move around in the enterprise, but that doesn't exist today.
您可以想象这样一个世界，其中存在更多新平台（例如 SaaS 应用程序）的整体演变，这些应用程序执行的业务功能不仅仅是一种业务功能，包括业务规则和企业中的事物移动方式，但这在今天并不存在。
So you could say that that could exist and it could say it could be way better than we've ever thought of because of AI.
所以你可以说这可能存在，并且可以说由于人工智能，它可能比我们想象的要好得多。
Or you could say that the rich are going to get richer.
或者你可以说富人会变得更富。
The most likely outcome is that the currently dominant companies are going to get more dominant, but I don't think this idea that it would just cause a spring up of a whole bunch of new apps that will more easily challenge the incumbents makes any particularly, it's not straightforward to me how that would happen basically.
最有可能的结果是，目前占主导地位的公司将变得更加占主导地位，但我不认为这种想法只会导致一大堆新应用程序的出现，这些应用程序将更容易挑战现有企业，对我来说，这基本上是如何发生的并不简单。
Lenny Rachitsky: Wow, that was extremely fascinating and there's so much there.
Lenny Rachitsky：哇，那太令人着迷了，而且内容太多了。
I can go in so many directions.
我可以朝很多方向走。
One is I thought you would actually go in this direction, which is distribution advantages become even more important if it's easy to...
一是我认为你实际上会朝这个方向发展，如果很容易的话，分销优势就会变得更加重要......
Like today, I could sit there and hire team clone.
就像今天一样，我可以坐在那里雇用克隆团队。
Salesforce might take a while, but I could copy it, but by the time I'm done, they've evolved, they're moving, they're adding features, they're ahead, right?
Salesforce 可能需要一段时间，但我可以复制它，但当我完成时，他们已经发展，他们正在移动，他们正在添加功能，他们处于领先地位，对吧？
You're skating to where the puck was.
你正在滑向冰球所在的位置。
And so if that's the case, one of the advantages, one of the ways to get anywhere is to have some kind of distribution advantage.
因此，如果是这样的话，优势之一、取得成功的方法之一就是拥有某种分销优势。
It's one thing to have Salesforce as a product clone, another to get anyone to know about it, to adopt it, to sell it, procurement, all that stuff.
将 Salesforce 作为产品克隆是一回事，让任何人了解它、采用它、销售它、采购等等都是另一回事。
Do you have a sense of distribution advantages being even more valuable in that world?
您是否认为分销优势在那个世界中更有价值？
Shaun Clowes: Yeah, I mean, it certainly makes sense.
Shaun Clowes：是的，我的意思是，这确实有道理。
Ultimately, at the end of the day, distribution is always an advantage because the hardest problem is to even be in the consideration set for any given problem.
最终，归根结底，分布始终是一个优势，因为最困难的问题甚至是在任何给定问题的考虑范围内。
The world is full of problems.
世界充满了问题。
It's just when people have that problem, they firstly don't think they're going to solve it at all.
只是当人们遇到这个问题时，他们首先认为自己根本无法解决它。
And when they do think of solving it, they don't think of you.
当他们确实想解决这个问题时，他们不会想到你。
So distribution is always an incredible advantage.
因此，分销始终是一个令人难以置信的优势。
But again, in the world of AI, it seems like distribution is more likely to get hard than easy.
但同样，在人工智能的世界里，分发似乎更容易变得困难而不是容易。
So if you think about, for example, diminishing returns on cold email because cold email is getting easier and easier to send even worse spam, it sounds better, but it's effectively causing everybody to become desensitized to everything.
因此，如果你考虑一下，例如，冷电子邮件的回报递减，因为冷电子邮件变得越来越容易发送更糟糕的垃圾邮件，这听起来更好，但它实际上导致每个人对一切都变得麻木不仁。
I don't know if you've noticed, half the LinkedIn charts now are all basically clearly LLM generated spam.
不知道你有没有注意到，现在LinkedIn的一半图表基本上都是LLM生成的垃圾邮件。
Shaun Clowes: I mean, to some degree it's actually worsening the signal-to-noise ratio.
Shaun Clowes：我的意思是，在某种程度上，它实际上恶化了信噪比。
And so I think that a lot of the breakthrough distribution mechanisms that startups often use seem to be getting more crowded just in general and more expensive.
因此，我认为初创公司经常使用的许多突破性分配机制似乎总体上变得更加拥挤且更加昂贵。
That doesn't bode well for, "I'm the not as good Salesforce," "I'm the not as good Salesforce, but I'm cheaper." It has to be something different.
这对于“我是不太好的 Salesforce”、“我是不太好的 Salesforce，但我更便宜”来说不是一个好兆头。它必须是不同的东西。
There has to be some angle upon which you are materially better.
必须有某个角度可以让你在物质上变得更好。
And what I saw happening and what I've been seeing happening, and I think it's been really interesting is a lot of modern next-gen applications bringing data as a first-class citizen into the workflow.
我所看到的以及我所看到的正在发生的事情，我认为非常有趣的是许多现代下一代应用程序将数据作为一等公民带入工作流程。
And I think that that's pretty compelling.
我认为这非常引人注目。
So if you look at the next-generation of applicant management products that deal with inbound job applicants, a lot of them now like the latest core ones, they include your time to fill data, they include outcome data of who's got the best hiring outcomes, who over what period of time has the worst attrition, literally all the way back to the interviewers and where the interviews were in the interview cycle.
因此，如果你看看处理入境求职者的下一代申请人管理产品，其中很多现在都喜欢最新的核心产品，它们包括你填写数据的时间，它们包括谁获得最佳招聘结果、谁在什么时间段内人员流失最严重的结果数据，实际上一直追溯到面试官以及面试在面试周期中的哪个阶段。
Shaun Clowes: So basically embeds data into the whole life cycle.
Shaun Clowes：所以基本上将数据嵌入到整个生命周期中。
So I think that there are these ways in which startups can bring these experience benefits by just bringing a different approach to the world that does enable them to capitalize on traditional disruptive innovation.
因此，我认为初创公司可以通过以下方式带来这些体验优势，只需为世界带来不同的方法，使他们能够利用传统的颠覆性创新。
At the end of the day, this is just disruptive innovation.
归根结底，这只是颠覆性创新。
It means that most companies have overshot the utility like the average utility, so you can win by meeting the average utility and being different, meet the bar and be different.
这意味着大多数公司都超越了效用，就像平均效用一样，所以你可以通过满足平均效用并与众不同来获胜，满足标准并与众不同。
Meet the bar and be different is the way to cut through.
与酒吧见面并与众不同才是突破之道。
So that makes sense if that's a half decent playbook.
如果这是一本还算不错的剧本，那么这是有道理的。
But even for those companies, now they're going to have all these AI competitors who are using AI to engineer faster, to build a competitor just like them as quickly as possible and start jamming it into the channel.
但即使对于这些公司来说，现在他们也将拥有所有这些人工智能竞争对手，他们正在使用人工智能来更快地进行设计，尽快建立一个像他们一样的竞争对手，并开始将其塞入渠道。
And it's going to be interesting to see how this whole thing evolves.
看看整个事情如何演变将会很有趣。
It kind of got race to the bottom characteristics around it.
这有点像竞相逐底的特点。
You're probably right, the distribution is still the hardest part in software, particularly when you're getting started.
您可能是对的，发行版仍然是软件中最难的部分，尤其是当您刚开始时。
Lenny Rachitsky: So if you have some kind of clever and fair advantage, it feels like that becomes even more powerful.
Lenny Rachitsky：所以如果你有某种聪明而公平的优势，感觉会变得更加强大。
Say have a platform of an audience or something like that.
比如说有一个观众平台或类似的东西。
You mentioned this ATS product they really like.
您提到了他们非常喜欢的 ATS 产品。
Is there one you want to give some love to that you think is really cool that you like or you want to keep it anonymous?
您是否想向您认为非常酷且喜欢的人表达一些爱，或者您想保持匿名？
Shaun Clowes: Yeah, it's Ashby.
肖恩·克劳斯：是的，我是阿什比。
It's the one all the cool kids are talking about now.
这是现在所有酷孩子都在谈论的话题。
And it's funny because people literally talk about it in comparison to all, even the last generation of modern SaaS ATSs or whatever, and they talk about it in glowing ways because of the way they put data inside the actual workflow.
这很有趣，因为人们实际上是在与所有产品（甚至是最后一代现代 SaaS ATS 或其他产品）进行比较时谈论它，并且由于他们将数据放入实际工作流程中的方式，他们以热情洋溢的方式谈论它。
So the actions and its outcomes are directly tieable to each other in the application you're doing the work in.
因此，操作及其结果在您正在执行工作的应用程序中直接相互关联。
I think that's a pretty compelling user experience.
我认为这是一种非常引人注目的用户体验。
Lenny Rachitsky: So just to maybe close this thread before I move in a different direction, this point you're making about how valuable data is and how that's at the core of being successful and differentiating in the future, especially with AI tooling and products, any advice you'd give to someone that wants to do that?
Lenny Rachitsky：所以，在我转向不同的方向之前，也许可以结束这个话题，您正在谈论数据的价值，以及数据如何成为未来成功和差异化的核心，特别是在人工智能工具和产品方面，您会给那些想要这样做的人什么建议吗？
Is it just make sure you have a, is it half proprietary data?
是否只是确保您拥有半专有数据？
Is it like make it a first-class citizen?
是不是等于成为一等公民？
What's the advice you'd give to founders who are trying to do this, which you're suggesting?
您对尝试这样做的创始人有什么建议？
Shaun Clowes: Yeah, I, think at the end of the day, it's kind of all of those things, isn't it?
肖恩·克劳斯：是的，我想归根结底，这就是所有这些事情，不是吗？
If you have first-party data but you can't bring it to bear, then it's not very much use.
如果你有第一方数据但你无法运用它，那么它就没有多大用处。
If you have third-party data and you bring it to bear in interesting ways, the problem with data is we're all surrounded by data all the time.
如果您拥有第三方数据并以有趣的方式利用它，那么数据的问题是我们一直被数据包围。
So the data's everywhere.
所以数据无处不在。
What really matters is the right data at the right time in the right place because we're all humans.
真正重要的是在正确的时间、正确的地点提供正确的数据，因为我们都是人类。
And so to me, there are obviously data advantages and there are even data network effects if you can end up in a situation where you have very valuable first-party data.
所以对我来说，如果你最终能够拥有非常有价值的第一方数据，那么显然会有数据优势，甚至还会产生数据网络效应。
But in any case, it's still about being able to bring the right data at the right place, at the right time for those users, for them to be able to get advantage from it.
但无论如何，它仍然是能够在正确的地点、正确的时间为这些用户带来正确的数据，让他们能够从中受益。
Shaun Clowes: A little kind of segue I guess on that one is I know I spent a lot of my career, weirdly, actually I've been a product person for a long time, but weirdly I've ended up inheriting data teams.
Shaun Clowes：我想对此有一点延续，我知道我花了很多职业生涯，奇怪的是，实际上我已经做了很长时间的产品人员，但奇怪的是我最终继承了数据团队。
So I've actually run data teams at a lot of different companies, which is weird because product managers don't normally own data teams.
所以我实际上在很多不同的公司运营过数据团队，这很奇怪，因为产品经理通常不拥有数据团队。
I think I have just a really massive affinity for data.
我认为我对数据有着非常浓厚的兴趣。
I used to call myself data-driven, it was kind of my jam.
我曾经称自己是数据驱动的，这有点像我的困境。
And in hindsight, I look back and I think data is the opposite.
事后看来，我认为数据恰恰相反。
Data is more like a compass than a GPS.
数据更像是指南针而不是 GPS。
If you look at data as a way of giving you the answer, you're always wrong.
如果您将数据视为给您答案的一种方式，那么您总是错的。
You're always wrong or you're slow.
你总是错或者你太慢了。
Wrong or slow or sometimes both, because mostly data doesn't give you the answer.
错误或缓慢，有时两者兼而有之，因为大多数数据不能给你答案。
It just tells you if what you just said is ridiculous or there's potentially something there.
它只是告诉你你刚才说的话是否荒谬或者可能存在某些问题。
Shaun Clowes: So it's more like about disproving whatever you think and you end up being slow because if you try and use data for everything, your brain is ultimately a data sifter or whatever.
Shaun Clowes：所以这更像是反驳你的想法，你最终会变得缓慢，因为如果你尝试将数据用于所有事情，你的大脑最终会成为一个数据筛选器或其他什么。
So the reason your intuition tells you something is because you've seen a ton of data that tells you that this is the most likely answer.
所以你的直觉告诉你一些事情的原因是因为你已经看到了大量的数据告诉你这是最有可能的答案。
And so being data-driven, being data obsessed is it's something you can easily overdo very, very easily overdo.
因此，数据驱动、数据痴迷是你很容易做得过度、非常容易做得过度的事情。
So it's about right-sizing data, having the right data at your fingertips, having the right kind of view on data rather than trying to expect data to give you the answer or trying to use data as a weapon or trying to use data as a way to force people to believe you or to go in your direction.
因此，重要的是正确调整数据大小、触手可及的正确数据、对数据有正确的看法，而不是试图期望数据给你答案或试图使用数据作为武器或试图使用数据作为强迫人们相信你或朝着你的方向前进的方式。
But data is kind of at the center of everything and about how to influence and be successful in products you're building and arguments you're mounting internally and everything else.
但数据在某种程度上是一切的中心，它关系到如何影响你正在构建的产品、你在内部提出的论点以及其他一切，并取得成功。
Lenny Rachitsky: I love that you went there.
Lenny Rachitsky：我喜欢你去那里。
I definitely wanted to spend time on here.
我绝对想在这里度过时光。
It's interesting you say that, there used to be data-driven, data-driven.
你说的很有趣，以前是数据驱动的，数据驱动的。
You created the Reforge course, data for product managers and also retention, engagement course and Reforge.
您创建了 Reforge 课程、产品经理数据以及保留率、参与度课程和 Reforge。
And by the way, we'll link to these.
顺便说一句，我们将链接到这些。
You're still helping with these courses.
您仍在帮助完成这些课程。
By the way, they're still running.
顺便说一句，他们还在跑步。
They're awesome.
他们太棒了。
People love them.
人们爱他们。
Lenny Rachitsky: Great.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：太棒了。
So we'll point people to those.
所以我们会向人们指出这些。
I love that you're also saying you're like, I think the way you described it to me before, this is your reform data-driven PM.
我喜欢你还说，我想就像你之前向我描述的那样，这是你的改革数据驱动的总理。
A lot of people say this, they're like, "Don't just do what data tells you to do.
很多人都这么说，他们的意思是：“不要只做数据告诉你要做的事情。
Use your intuition, use it as a guide." It's hard on the ground to operationalize that advice.
用你的直觉，用它作为指导。”实际操作该建议很困难。
Say to your PMs and your teams when they have data telling them, "Hey, this experiment is a huge success, or there's a huge onboarding conversion opportunity here." I guess just like what's your tactical advice to folks that have data telling them one thing and maybe something else telling them something else?
当你的产品经理和团队有数据告诉他们时，对他们说：“嘿，这个实验取得了巨大成功，或者这里有一个巨大的入职转换机会。”我想就像你对那些有数据告诉他们一件事，也许还有其他东西告诉他们别的东西的人有什么战术建议一样？
Shaun Clowes: I think the first thing I always encourage people to do is to look at a piece of data.
Shaun Clowes：我认为我总是鼓励人们做的第一件事就是查看数据。
If you're looking at a piece of data and the result tells you something that your intuition tells you is insanely wrong, like they probably not right.
如果你正在查看一段数据，结果告诉你一些你的直觉告诉你的东西是极其错误的，就像它们可能不正确一样。
First, believe your intuition and go and prove yourself right.
首先，相信你的直觉，并去证明自己是对的。
Don't just take it at first glance because most of the time it's like Occam's razor.
不要只看一眼，因为大多数时候它就像奥卡姆剃刀。
The most likely explanation for something that is insanely not intuitive is that it's just wrong, that there's a problem somewhere.
对于那些极其不直观的事情，最可能的解释是它是错误的，某个地方出了问题。
Now, occasionally, sometimes you actually will be right.
现在，偶尔，有时你实际上是对的。
Now those will be paid dirt moments.
现在，那些肮脏的时刻将得到回报。
Those are the moments that make it all worth it.
那些时刻让一切都变得值得。
There are times when you do find the negative goal, you're like, you're staring at it and like, "This is it.
有时候，当你确实发现了消极目标时，你会盯着它，然后说：“就是这样。
This was the problem.
这就是问题所在。
This was the thing we were looking for this whole time."
这就是我们一直在寻找的东西。”
Shaun Clowes: But you have to be very diligent about following it through, really understanding what you're looking at.
Shaun Clowes：但是你必须非常勤奋地遵循它，真正理解你所看到的内容。
Is this data representative?
这个数据有代表性吗？
Is this data a good sample of the audience we care about?
这些数据是我们关心的受众的良好样本吗？
Is it already subject to some sort of selection bias?
它是否已经受到某种选择偏见的影响？
Oftentimes when I see analysis from different product leaders or even data teams, you can drive a truck through it, literally drive a truck through it.
很多时候，当我看到不同产品负责人甚至数据团队的分析时，你可以驾驶一辆卡车穿过它，字面意思是驾驶一辆卡车穿过它。
And if you present data with authority and that data is ridiculous or the analysis is just full of holes, you don't just not get benefit for that.
如果你提供权威的数据，但这些数据很荒谬，或者分析充满漏洞，你不会从中受益。
You lose a whole bunch of brownie points.
你会失去一大堆印象分。
It would be better not to show up with an analysis that isn't clear than it would be to show up with an analysis that's dumb.
最好不要提供不清楚的分析，而不是提供愚蠢的分析。
And I see people self emulate on this actually relatively regularly because they just bring a knife to a gunfight or whatever, they did bring in an analysis that is just not, it doesn't hold water and they present it and then get shot down live, which is nobody's idea of a good time.
我看到人们实际上相对经常地在这方面进行自我模仿，因为他们只是带刀去枪战或其他什么，他们确实带来了一种分析，但事实并非如此，它站不住脚，他们提出它，然后被现场击落，这不是任何人认为的好时机。
Shaun Clowes: So if I give you a little bit of additional tactical things about that, it'd be okay if I'm looking at a piece of data, what was upstream of this piece of data and does that look normal?
Shaun Clowes：所以，如果我给你一些额外的战术信息，如果我正在查看一段数据，这条数据的上游是什么，这看起来正常吗？
So this thing happened or whatever, which you're very, very excited about, what happened before that?
所以这件事发生了或者发生了什么，你对此非常非常兴奋，在那之前发生了什么？
And does that match what you think should have been right?
这符合你认为应该是正确的吗？
So what happened before this momentous situation?
那么在这一重大事件之前发生了什么？
And then, okay, for that thing that you're looking at, what happened after?
然后，好吧，对于你正在看的那件事，之后发生了什么？
If you have an idea of what happened before and after, that gives you some idea of whether or not this thing, is it all worth interesting to talk about?
如果你知道之前和之后发生的事情，你就会知道这件事是否值得谈论？
And then go one click above this data that you're looking at.
然后在您正在查看的数据上方单击一下。
So it's like, these things, let's say I'm looking at onboarding success.
所以，就像这些事情，假设我正在关注入职成功。
Let's say I'm looking at onboarding success to second week retention or something like that.
假设我正在考虑入职成功到第二周的留存率或类似的情况。
Shaun Clowes: I'm like, "I have found this thing that totally crushes it.
肖恩·克劳斯：我想，“我发现了这个完全粉碎它的东西。
This intervention crushes it." If you go upstream and you find out that this intervention only applies to 2% of the inbound onboarding stream, it's meaningless.
这次干预摧毁了它。”如果你往上游走，发现这种干预只适用于 2% 的入站入职流，那就毫无意义。
It's most likely just a random aberration.
这很可能只是一个随机偏差。
But even if it was not a random aberration, it's not a useful tool.
但即使它不是随机畸变，它也不是一个有用的工具。
And so you've got to go up and then you might go downstream and you might find, yep, they last for two in the second week, but in the third week they all churn.
所以你必须向上，然后你可能会向下游走，你可能会发现，是的，它们在第二周持续了两周，但在第三周它们都流失了。
They're basically pointless.
它们基本上毫无意义。
Why are we even talking about this?
我们为什么要谈论这个？
Or then you might step all the way back and go, "Okay, yes, those people do get retained for longer, but their average ASP is smaller." Because what we really care about, we do care about engagement and we care about more customers, but we want to keep the customers at a high ASP to reach a certain revenue goal.
或者你可能会退一步说，“好吧，是的，这些人确实会保留更长时间，但他们的平均 ASP 更小。”因为我们真正关心的是参与度，我们关心更多的客户，但我们希望让客户保持较高的平均售价，以达到一定的收入目标。
Shaun Clowes: The final goal is happy customers paying us money.
Shaun Clowes：最终目标是让客户满意地付钱给我们。
So that's what I mean about going a click up.
这就是我所说的点击上升的意思。
If you go a click to the left, a click to the right, so before and after and then a click up and you still see the thing that tells you the story that you want to tell, then now you've got something that's very compelling because people want to hear about that.
如果您向左单击，向右单击，前后单击，然后向上单击，您仍然可以看到告诉您想要讲述的故事的内容，那么现在您已经得到了非常引人注目的内容，因为人们想听听这个故事。
They want to hear, "Well, what did happen before?
他们想听到，“那么，之前发生了什么？
What did happen after?
之后发生了什么？
And why is that outcome happening?" But you have to really do your homework and really be rigorous about it to avoid fighting fool's gold.
为什么会出现这样的结果？”但你必须真正做好功课，真正做到严格，才能避免与愚人金作对。
Lenny Rachitsky: I love that advice.
Lenny Rachitsky：我喜欢这个建议。
ASP, what does that stand for by the way?
ASP，顺便问一下，它代表什么？
Shaun Clowes: Oh, average sale press, MRR or some other revenue metric.
Shaun Clowes：哦，平均销售压力、MRR 或其他一些收入指标。
Lenny Rachitsky: Got it.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：明白了。
This point you made about how a lot of times experiments show positive and then they end up not being anything, I had the head of growth from Shopify on the podcast, and they do this really cool thing where they keep holdouts for years of cohorts and then it auto emails them I think a year or two later, "Hey, check this and see if these cohorts, this is still higher or not." And 40% of the time, it turns out neutral after a positive experiment long term.
你提到的这一点是，很多次实验显示出积极的结果，但最终却一事无成，我在播客上看到了 Shopify 的增长主管，他们做了一件非常酷的事情，他们让一批人坚持多年，然后它会自动向他们发送电子邮件，我想一两年后，“嘿，检查一下，看看这些群组是否仍然更高。” 40% 的情况下，经过长期积极的实验后结果是中性的。
Shaun Clowes: Interesting.
肖恩·克劳斯：有趣。
It's really funny because the last time we did something similar, we had a global holdout group actually that was held out of all experiments.
这真的很有趣，因为上次我们做类似的事情时，我们有一个全球坚持小组实际上被排除在所有实验之外。
The experiment platform couldn't target that group at all.
实验平台根本无法针对这个群体。
So 10% of all people never saw anything ever.
所以 10% 的人从来没有见过任何东西。
So that's be really, really helpful because you can always compare them against whatever the experience was for any of the same vintage of cohort.
所以这真的非常有帮助，因为你总是可以将它们与任何同一年份的队列中的任何经历进行比较。
I agree with you.
我同意你的看法。
But the other thing is I don't really love some of that thinking process just in general.
但另一件事是，我并不真正喜欢一般的某些思考过程。
Shaun Clowes: It's like, "Hey, let's say an experiment does show a temporary benefit.
肖恩·克劳斯：就像，“嘿，假设一项实验确实显示出暂时的好处。
If an experiment shows a temporary benefit, but that benefit does not persist forever, does that mean the temporary benefit was never worth it?
如果一项实验显示出暂时的好处，但这种好处不会永远持续下去，这是否意味着暂时的好处永远不值得？
Or does that just mean the temporary benefit was an opportunity to reach another level you just didn't capitalize on?" I don't think there's a perfect answer, is what I'm trying to say.
或者这只是意味着暂时的好处是一个达到另一个水平的机会，但你只是没有利用？”我不认为有一个完美的答案，这就是我想说的。
I don't think that the fact that a benefit doesn't last forever means that you failed.
我不认为利益不能永远持续这一事实意味着你失败了。
But I agree with you that not trying to understand, well, what has the net benefit been, what has the net lift been is also really important too.
但我同意你的观点，不要试图理解净收益是什么，净提升是什么也非常重要。
That's why growth is so hard.
这就是为什么成长如此困难。
Growth is part of product is so especially hard.
增长是产品的一部分，因此特别困难。
Lenny Rachitsky: Marketers, I know that you love TLDRs, so let me get right to the point.
Lenny Rachitsky：营销人员，我知道你们喜欢 TLDR，所以让我开门见山。
Wix Studio gives you everything you need to cater to any client at any scale, all in one place.
Wix Studio 为您提供满足任何规模的任何客户所需的一切，一切都在一个地方。
Here's how your workflow could look.
您的工作流程如下所示。
Scale content with dynamic pages and reusable assets effortlessly, fast-track projects with built-in marketing integrations like Meta, CPI, Zapier, Google Ads and more, A/B test landing pages in days, not weeks with intuitive design tools, connected tracking and analytics tools like Google Analytics and Semrush can capture key business events without the hassle of manual setup, manage all your client's social media and communications from a unified dashboard, then create, schedule and post content across all their channels.
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So you built the first B2B growth team when you were Atlassian, correct?
那么，您在 Atlassian 时就建立了第一个 B2B 增长团队，对吗？
Shaun Clowes: Yes.
肖恩·克劳斯：是的。
Yeah, it makes me feel like an old person, but yes, it was a very long time ago.
是的，这让我感觉自己像个老人，但是，那是很久以前的事了。
Lenny Rachitsky: It's either a long time ago or it's just recently figured out this is a thing that you could do in a B2B is focus on growth.
Lenny Rachitsky：要么是很久以前的事，要么是最近才发现，在 B2B 中你可以做的就是专注于增长。
Shaun Clowes: Yeah, it is.
肖恩·克劳斯：是的，确实如此。
So that was around about 2012, and at that time growth hacking was a thing.
那是在 2012 年左右，当时增长黑客很流行。
People don't really use that term anymore, but in B2C it was a very big deal because people could see Facebook doing their 10 friends in seven days and they could see this kind of thing that was working for people.
人们不再真正使用这个术语，但在 B2C 中这是一件非常大的事情，因为人们可以看到 Facebook 在 7 天内完成他们的 10 个朋友，他们可以看到这种对人们有用的事情。
And they're like, "Man, that's amazing." And at Atlassian we set out to go, "Okay, well, do those techniques work in B2B?" And also, it's kind of obvious now that a lot of them do and that it's worth doing.
他们就像，“伙计，这太棒了。”在 Atlassian，我们开始思考：“好吧，这些技术适用于 B2B 吗？”而且，很明显，现在很多人都这样做了，而且值得这样做。
But at the time it wasn't that obvious because for a lot of B2B companies, I mean, you summarized it earlier, Lenny, distribution covers all faults.
但当时并不那么明显，因为对于很多 B2B 公司来说，我的意思是，你之前总结过，Lenny，分销涵盖了所有错误。
Almost all ills can be filled in by really great distribution.
几乎所有的弊病都可以通过真正伟大的分配来弥补。
Shaun Clowes: If you have a really good marketing, a really good ground game, and you're kind of jamming your product into the channel, you're jamming your product in front of people and you're papering over the ugly parts with customer success people and services and consulting and whatever, that people will buy almost any software or you can certainly be successful with a lot of different software.
Shaun Clowes：如果你有一个非常好的营销，一个非常好的地面游戏，你把你的产品塞进渠道，你把你的产品塞在人们面前，你用客户成功人员、服务和咨询等掩盖丑陋的部分，人们会购买几乎任何软件，或者你肯定可以通过很多不同的软件取得成功。
But back in 2012, it wasn't clear of like, okay, which instead you went at this differently and you've heard them in software that sell itself, is the juice worth the squeeze?
但早在 2012 年，还不清楚这样的问题，好吧，相反，你采取了不同的方式，并且你在自我销售的软件中听到了他们的说法，这种果汁值得榨取吗？
And now I would say that it's pretty clear that the juice is worth the squeeze to the point that lots of think about this all the time, but it was a bit of an interesting time at that time.
现在我想说，很明显，果汁是值得榨的，以至于很多人一直在思考这个问题，但当时是一个有趣的时刻。
Lenny Rachitsky: And that was essentially the beginnings of product-led growth.
Lenny Rachitsky：这本质上是产品主导型增长的开始。
Is that a simple way to think about it?
这是一个简单的思考方式吗？
Shaun Clowes: Basically it's now called PLG, but yeah, at that time we didn't even know what to call it exactly.
Shaun Clowes：现在基本上它被称为 PLG，但是，当时我们甚至不知道该怎么称呼它。
Lenny Rachitsky: Just growth.
Lenny Rachitsky：只是增长。
So based on that experience, a lot of B2B companies now have growth teams through investing in growth, what makes a great growth team in B2B?
因此，根据这一经验，现在很多 B2B 公司通过投资增长来拥有增长团队，那么什么才是 B2B 领域优秀的增长团队呢？
Any pitfalls you often find folks fall into that you think they should try to avoid?
您经常发现人们会陷入哪些您认为应该尽力避免的陷阱？
Shaun Clowes: Ultimately, a lot of these types of endeavors are a matter of balance.
Shaun Clowes：归根结底，很多此类努力都是一个平衡问题。
So what I mean by that is growth teams tend to go through a set of phases.
我的意思是，增长团队往往会经历一系列阶段。
Their first phase is proving their value at all.
他们的第一阶段是证明自己的价值。
So call that the gold rush phase.
所以称之为淘金热阶段。
This thing's probably not worth even doing.
这件事可能根本不值得做。
Why are we doing this, merry band of people out there trying to prove that there's some growth effect somewhere?
我们为什么要这样做，一群快乐的人试图证明某个地方有一些增长效应？
So that's the proof of phase.
这就是相位证明。
And so the advantage of that phase is life's good because there's usually a lot of growths to be found because nobody's gone looking before, so life's good.
所以这个阶段的优势是生活是美好的，因为通常会发现很多成长，因为没有人以前去寻找，所以生活是美好的。
But it's pretty random because you're just literally searching across a random search phase going, "Have we tried X?
但这是相当随机的，因为你实际上只是在随机搜索阶段进行搜索，“我们尝试过 X 吗？
Have we tried Y?
我们尝试过Y吗？
Have we tried Z?" Then once you get that model going, then it starts to be, "Okay, how do we scale this thing?
我们尝试过Z吗？”然后，一旦你让这个模型运行起来，它就开始是，“好吧，我们如何扩展这个东西？
Is this just a flash in the pan?
这只是昙花一现吗？
Do we just find a little bit of low hanging fruit and there's nothing else here, there?
我们是否只是找到了一点容易实现的目标，而这里那里没有其他东西？
Is this just a project we should have done rather than an ongoing thing?"
这只是我们应该做的一个项目而不是一个正在进行的事情吗？”
Shaun Clowes: So you have to make it a system.
Shaun Clowes：所以你必须把它变成一个系统。
You have to prove that it can be repeated, and then you have to scale it.
你必须证明它可以重复，然后你必须扩展它。
It has to become a thing.
它必须成为一件事。
It has to become part of your DNA.
它必须成为你 DNA 的一部分。
You have to be taking a PLG lens to everything you do, all the way from paid acquisition to activation, retention, engagement, cross product expansion, upsells, I mean, you name it, all the different ways you can grow a product by revenue or engagement.
你必须以 PLG 的眼光看待你所做的一切，从付费获取到激活、保留、参与、跨产品扩张、追加销售，我的意思是，凡是你能想到的，所有通过收入或参与度来增长产品的不同方式。
There's many different ways to go about that.
有很多不同的方法可以做到这一点。
And so you end up having to scale out and be able to do all of those different things.
因此，您最终必须进行扩展并能够完成所有这些不同的事情。
And then you have to figure out how you fit in with the rest of the organization because there's other people who build products all day every day.
然后你必须弄清楚你如何适应组织的其他部分，因为还有其他人每天都在构建产品。
Shaun Clowes: There's other people who sell that product all day, all day.
Shaun Clowes：还有其他人整天都在销售该产品。
There's other people who market that product all day, all day.
还有其他人整天推销该产品。
And so growth organizations are in this interesting space, they're in between everybody else.
因此，成长型组织处于这个有趣的领域，它们位于其他组织之间。
They're in everybody else's sandpit in a little bit, in a little way, and they're kind of at the edge of everybody's full-time job and they are very valuable, but they can be complicated because of all those relationships, and because of the way they sit amongst all of the other parts of the organization.
他们在某种程度上、以某种方式处于其他人的沙坑中，他们处于每个人全职工作的边缘，他们非常有价值，但由于所有这些关系，以及他们与组织所有其他部分的关系，他们可能会变得复杂。
So many organizations fail because they don't really find much the wins or when they do find wins, it just seems totally random.
许多组织之所以失败，是因为他们并没有真正找到多少胜利，或者当他们确实找到胜利时，这似乎完全是随机的。
Or they do find a lot of wins, but they all can't understand them because they seem like they're just a random walk through a bunch of potential opportunities.
或者他们确实发现了很多胜利，但他们都无法理解它们，因为它们似乎只是随机浏览一堆潜在机会。
There's many different ways to fail to fit as you go through your growth phase from trying the ideas to success, to scaling, to operationalizing.
当你经历成长阶段时，从尝试想法到成功、到扩展、到实施，有很多不同的方式会导致你无法适应。
Lenny Rachitsky: One of the biggest memes along these lines is a lot of companies claim there's like just PLG rarely ever works.
Lenny Rachitsky：最大的迷因之一是许多公司声称 PLG 很少起作用。
You always, either you try it and it just doesn't work or it eventually just peters out, I guess.
我想，你总是会这样，要么你尝试了，但它不起作用，要么它最终就消失了。
Any thoughts on just what are signs that your product has a chance to work, peel product-led growth versus just go straight to sales immediately and don't even worry about this?
你有什么想法表明你的产品有机会发挥作用，剥离产品主导的增长，而不是立即直接销售，甚至不担心这一点？
Shaun Clowes: First let's examine the counterfactual, right?
Shaun Clowes：首先我们来看看反事实，对吧？
So let's start with the opposite of your question and say, "Hey, how would the world be sadder if we all just gave up on PLG?" We just said, "Hey, there's no point in doing it in B2B SaaS." The problem is that there is not a natural force that pulls companies towards thinking about the end user's enjoyment and success early in their journey.
因此，让我们从与您的问题相反的角度开始说：“嘿，如果我们都放弃 PLG，世界会变得更加悲伤吗？”我们只是说，“嘿，在 B2B SaaS 中这样做没有任何意义。”问题在于，没有一种自然的力量可以促使公司在旅程的早期就考虑最终用户的享受和成功。
There is no natural force, there's no natural kind of a link force.
不存在自然力，也不存在自然的链接力。
Why is that?
这是为什么？
I mean, 101, the buyer is the most important person.
我的意思是，101，买家是最重要的人。
The economic bar is the most economic person.
经济吧就是最经济的人。
Their needs are the number one thing.
他们的需求是第一位的。
They're usually the person driving the RFP.
他们通常是负责 RFP 的人。
They're usually the person dealing with the sales organization.
他们通常是与销售组织打交道的人。
So the needs of the person who you hear are usually all feature-driven and they're not from the end users.
因此，您听到的人的需求通常都是功能驱动的，而不是来自最终用户。
Shaun Clowes: And so you're kind of sowing a seed of your own demise if you don't think about that end user.
Shaun Clowes：如果您不考虑最终用户，那么您就等于为自己播下了灭亡的种子。
But it's one thing to say that you should think about the end user, it's a whole other thing to have a system by which you do that because people pay lip service to all sorts of things.
但说你应该考虑最终用户是一回事，拥有一个可以做到这一点的系统则完全是另一回事，因为人们对各种事情都只是口头上的支持。
But I'm sure you've heard this one before, but in economics, people only do what their incentives told them to do.
但我相信你以前听说过这个说法，但在经济学中，人们只会做他们的动机告诉他们做的事情。
Broadly speaking, that is what they do, that is what happens.
从广义上讲，这就是他们所做的，这就是发生的事情。
You get what you set out to measure.
你得到了你想要测量的东西。
You get what you give people incentives to do.
你激励人们去做什么，你就会得到什么。
If there is nobody in the organization whose true incentive is to measure their end user success, their enjoyment, their happiness, their retention, their engagement early on, it will not happen.
如果组织中没有人真正的动机是尽早衡量最终用户的成功、享受、幸福、保留和参与度，那么这一切就不会发生。
Or at best it will be a hobby.
或者充其量这将是一种爱好。
And so then by extension, if I start from there, then I say, "Okay, let's say it doesn't exist, PLG doesn't exist and therefore it's a hobby and therefore there will be a bunch of hobby people who care about this."
因此，推而广之，如果我从那里开始，那么我会说，“好吧，假设它不存在，PLG 不存在，因此它是一种爱好，因此会有一群关心这个爱好的人。”
Shaun Clowes: Then you ask yourself, "Okay, will that mean that there will be many products for which those experiences really suck?
Shaun Clowes：然后你问自己，“好吧，这是否意味着会有很多产品的这些体验真的很糟糕？
And does that mean that that will be an opportunity for competitors of those products to be better at that?
这是否意味着这些产品的竞争对手将有机会在这方面做得更好？
And is that a differentiated competitive advantage?" Yeah, I'd say it is.
这是差异化竞争优势吗？”是的，我想说是的。
I'd say it is.
我想说是的。
And so I just work my way backwards and I go, "Okay, you can say that your PLG investment might be too high." You could be like, "Well, if I invest more, I won't get any more juice.
所以我只是倒退着想，“好吧，你可以说你的 PLG 投资可能太高了。”你可能会说，“好吧，如果我投资更多，我就不会得到更多的果汁。
I can't spend my life just experimenting in the onboarding.
我不能把我的一生都花在入职实验上。
That's not the only thing that matters." And that's very, very true, but it's very hard to argue it should be turned to zero.
这不是唯一重要的事情。”这是非常非常正确的，但很难说它应该变成零。
Shaun Clowes: And so to me, therefore it's about the balance.
Shaun Clowes：对我来说，这就是平衡的问题。
It's about, "Okay, how does PLG fit with the other different ways that I grow in my business?" At Confluent, for example, we have a PLG function.
问题是“好吧，PLG 如何适应我业务发展的其他不同方式？”例如，在 Confluence，我们有一个 PLG 功能。
We do grow with self-serve signups.
我们确实通过自助注册而成长。
People who sign up, literally their credit card, lots of them sign up and they're very successful, never speak to us.
注册的人，实际上是他们的信用卡，很多人注册了并且非常成功，从不与我们交谈。
We also have an enterprise sales team that sells directly to very big companies, some of the biggest banks in the world, the people you would definitely know of.
我们还有一个企业销售团队，直接向非常大的公司、世界上一些最大的银行以及您肯定认识的人销售产品。
I don't think it has to be one or the other.
我不认为必须是其中之一。
I think that it's about a balance.
我认为这是一个平衡问题。
It's about getting the motions to work and for really sophisticated companies, the people who really nail this, it's about making both motions work together.
这是为了让这些动议发挥作用，对于真正成熟的公司，真正解决这个问题的人来说，这是为了让这两个动议一起发挥作用。
If you can get a PLG motion work to feed your sales team and a sales team motion work to feed your PLG funnel when the sales leads aren't ready yet and you can get those motions into playing with each other, you can make a lot of money.
如果您可以在销售线索尚未准备好时获得 PLG 动议工作来满足您的销售团队的需求，并获得销售团队动议工作来满足您的 PLG 漏斗的需求，并且您可以让这些动议相互配合，那么您可以赚很多钱。
Shaun Clowes: It can be an extremely successful way to go to build a very resilient business.
Shaun Clowes：这可能是建立一个非常有弹性的业务的极其成功的方式。
Why?
为什么？
Because you get a lot of customers and you get a lot of revenue.
因为你获得了很多客户并且获得了很多收入。
You can't be that successful as a company if you have a lot of revenue, but a small number of customers because you're captive, everyone knows that.
如果你有很多收入，但客户数量很少，那么作为一家公司，你就不可能那么成功，因为你被俘虏了，这是每个人都知道的。
You can't be that successful as a company if you have a lot of customers, but not enough revenue because you shouldn't have enough money to sustain operations.
如果您拥有大量客户，但没有足够的收入，那么您作为一家公司就不可能那么成功，因为您不应该有足够的资金来维持运营。
So the magic is in having both, a very large number of customers and a very large amount of revenue, it's very hard to knock over a company like that.
因此，神奇之处在于同时拥有大量客户和大量收入，很难击败这样的公司。
If I look back on my time at Atlassian, and I think that they shared their most recent numbers, I can't remember what it was, but it was in the public data or whatever, something 80,000 or 100,000 customers, something like that.
如果我回顾我在 Atlassian 的时光，我认为他们分享了最新的数据，我不记得它是什么，但它是在公共数据或其他什么中，大约 80,000 或 100,000 个客户，类似的东西。
Shaun Clowes: That's a lot of customers.
Shaun Clowes：有很多顾客。
That's a lot of customers.
那是很多顾客。
Let's say you're going up against Jira and you're like, "Yeah, man, I'm going to pick off 1,000 customers from Atlassian." That's a lot, right?
假设您要与 Jira 竞争，您会说：“是的，我要从 Atlassian 中挑选 1,000 名客户。”这已经很多了，对吧？
That's a lot.
就这么多了。
Obviously 1,000 customers is a lot.
显然 1,000 个客户已经很多了。
You only have 19, sorry, it's going to be 89,000 to go or 79,000 to go, or however many it is to go.
你只有 19 个，抱歉，可能是 89,000 人，也可能是 79,000 人，或者无论有多少人。
I can't remember their exact number of customers, but it's very hard to assail a company which has a very large number of customers and a very large amount of revenue.
我不记得他们的具体客户数量，但是攻击一家拥有大量客户和大量收入的公司是非常困难的。
And so that's why I think that PLG as a mechanism is incredibly important for almost any type of company, if you can make the motion work.
这就是为什么我认为 PLG 作为一种机制对于几乎任何类型的公司来说都非常重要，如果你能让这项动议发挥作用的话。
Obviously there are companies for whom the motion just isn't relevant, but for those where it does matter, it seems like the juice is worth the squeeze.
显然，有些公司的动议与此无关，但对于那些确实重要的公司来说，似乎值得榨取果汁。
Lenny Rachitsky: That was an awesome answer.
Lenny Rachitsky：这是一个很棒的答案。
I looked up last year and they have 300,000 customers.
我去年查了一下，他们有 30 万客户。
Shaun Clowes: Oh man, I'm so far off.
肖恩·克劳斯：天哪，我还差得很远。
When I left it must have been 80,000 customers.
当我离开时，肯定有八万名顾客。
Lenny Rachitsky: They've done good work since then.
Lenny Rachitsky：从那时起他们就做得很好。
Also, you're talking about incentives and how the power of incentives.
另外，您正在谈论激励以及激励的力量如何。
Charlie Munger has this great quote I looked up just to make sure I get it right.
查理·芒格（Charlie Munger）有一句很棒的名言，我查了一下，只是为了确保我理解正确。
"Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome."
“向我展示动机，我就会向你展示结果。”
Shaun Clowes: Yeah, exactly right.
肖恩·克劳斯：是的，完全正确。
I've seen cases where a sales team was people trying to get a sales team to do a PLG motion, and you can beat them over the head as much as you like, you can get into a meeting and tell them that you really, really want them to do this, but at the end of the day, they're not going to do it.
我见过销售团队试图让销售团队执行 PLG 动议的案例，你可以随心所欲地敲打他们，你可以参加会议并告诉他们你真的非常希望他们这样做，但最终他们不会这样做。
And the same is true for every other kind of function.
对于所有其他类型的函数也是如此。
It's just the nature of things.
这只是事物的本质。
Lenny Rachitsky: I have some newsletter posts around the stuff of folks want to dig deeper.
Lenny Rachitsky：我有一些时事通讯帖子，围绕人们想要深入挖掘的内容。
Also, Elena Verna had an awesome podcast episode talking about product-led sales and kind of the combination of these two things that we'll point to..
此外，Elena Verna 有一个很棒的播客节目，讨论了产品主导的销售以及我们将指出的这两件事的结合。
Just a whole other topic we can go deep, deep on, but we're not going to do that in this episode.
这是我们可以深入探讨的另一个话题，但在这一集中我们不会这样做。
Maybe just one more question.
也许还有一个问题。
So you mentioned all the companies you worked at, so you've been at Salesforce, chief product officer, MuleSoft, specifically within Salesforce, Metromile, Atlassian, Confluent now, a lot of really interesting and different roles.
所以你提到了你工作过的所有公司，所以你一直在 Salesforce、首席产品官、MuleSoft，特别是现在在 Salesforce、Metromile、Atlassian、Confluence，有很多非常有趣和不同的角色。
How do you choose where to go work and how do you choose which opportunities to take?
您如何选择去哪里工作以及如何选择抓住哪些机会？
I imagine you have many options.
我想你有很多选择。
Shaun Clowes: I have to think of my career.
肖恩·克劳斯：我必须考虑我的职业生涯。
So in hindsight, looking at it this way, Lenny, so I don't know if forward-looking was obvious to me this way.
所以事后看来，莱尼，我不知道这样看前瞻性对我来说是否显而易见。
But looking back, my career has been a little bit like a bingo card.
但回想起来，我的职业生涯有点像宾果卡。
I've always been looking to fill in boxes I didn't have filled because I felt like that would make me a better professional.
我一直在寻找填补我没有填补的空白，因为我觉得这会让我成为一个更好的专业人士。
It's like if I didn't know anything about that specific type of sales model or that type of marketing or that type of product management or that type of product or that layer in the stack or that kind of thing is like, well, if I learn about that thing, I will become more versatile.
就好像，如果我对那种特定类型的销售模式、那种类型的营销、那种类型的产品管理、那种类型的产品、堆栈中的那一层或那种东西一无所知，那么，如果我了解了那些东西，我就会变得更加多才多艺。
So actually two things, it's fun, it's fun to learn something new.
所以实际上有两件事，很有趣，学习新东西很有趣。
It's fun to prove to yourself that you can do those new things and then it makes you more versatile because it means that any given problem you go up against, you've seen something that pattern matches to it.
向自己证明你可以做这些新事情是很有趣的，然后它会让你变得更加多才多艺，因为这意味着你遇到的任何给定问题，你都会看到与之匹配的模式。
Shaun Clowes: It kind of feels like you end up bringing a gun to a knife fight in a way because every problem you look at, you're like, "Oh, I have seen this from the other side.
肖恩·克劳斯：感觉就像你最终带着枪参加了一场刀战，因为你看到的每一个问题，你都会说，“哦，我从另一面看到了这一点。
I've seen this from some other angle, and so I know that this is likely to work and this is unlikely to work." And so when I joined early on in my career, I was working for a big enterprise software company, sorry, small enterprise software company that sold to the Fortune 100.
我从其他角度看到了这一点，所以我知道这可能会奏效，但不太可能奏效。”因此，当我职业生涯早期加入时，我在一家大型企业软件公司工作，抱歉，是一家卖给财富 100 强的小型企业软件公司。
When I joined Atlassian, and like I shared with you, we had no sales force at all actually at all.
当我加入 Atlassian 时，正如我与您分享的那样，我们实际上根本没有销售队伍。
Literally nobody to sell the software.
从字面上看，没有人出售该软件。
It sold itself or it didn't get sold at all.
它自己卖掉了，或者根本没有卖掉。
And we grew to have 80,000 customers.
我们的客户数量已增至 80,000 名。
It was just pure product.
这只是纯粹的产品。
They had growth and just an incredible company.
他们不断成长，是一家令人难以置信的公司。
Then it was at Metromile, which was a consumer company that got acquired, made an insurance product for end consumers.
然后是 Metromile，这是一家被收购的消费品公司，为最终消费者生产保险产品。
Shaun Clowes: So they got nothing to do with technology products, like literally a complicated Internet of things device you installed in your car, but ultimately it's an insurance product that you'd sell to grandmothers in Florida as much as you would ever millennials.
肖恩·克劳斯：所以它们与科技产品无关，就像你安装在车里的复杂的物联网设备一样，但最终它是一种保险产品，你会像卖给千禧一代一样卖给佛罗里达州的祖母。
And then at MuleSoft to totally back end software that's used by IT organizations and a consulate infrastructure that's used by developers everywhere to build really interesting data-driven applications, data powered applications to do all sorts of things in real-time.
然后在 MuleSoft，IT 组织使用完全后端软件，以及世界各地的开发人员使用的领事馆基础设施来构建真正有趣的数据驱动应用程序、数据驱动的应用程序，以实时执行各种操作。
And you look at across all that and you go, "It's all a bit random." But I didn't see it that way because I learned, I actually was in sales for a bit, so I ran a pre-sales engineering group, went around the world selling software.
当你审视这一切时，你会说：“这一切都有点随机。”但我并不这么认为，因为我了解到，我实际上从事过一段销售工作，所以我管理了一个售前工程团队，在世界各地销售软件。
So when I joined Atlassian, I wanted to kind of understand what it was to sell software at massive scale with no sales team, can it even be done?
因此，当我加入 Atlassian 时，我想了解在没有销售团队的情况下大规模销售软件是什么意思，这是否可以做到？
Shaun Clowes: And so I learned a lot in my time at Atlassian.
Shaun Clowes：所以我在 Atlassian 期间学到了很多东西。
When I went to Metromile, I'm like, "Well, I've never built a consumer product before." I can say that I've actually built a product that's touched many millions of people because Jira has, so I felt pretty good about that, but I'd never built one that I could say, "Yep, a consumer, your average consumer can use this thing.
当我去 Metromile 时，我想，“好吧，我以前从未制造过消费产品。”我可以说，我实际上已经构建了一款影响了数百万人的产品，因为 Jira 已经做到了，所以我对此感觉很好，但我从来没有构建过一个我可以说，“是的，消费者，普通消费者可以使用这个东西。
It's so simple.
就是这么简单。
Even my grandma can use it." I'd never built a product like that.
连我奶奶都会用。”我从来没有开发过这样的产品。
So I got that experience at Metromile, which is really fun.
所以我在 Metromile 得到了这样的经历，这真的很有趣。
I'd never worked inside an organization as big as Salesforce or an organization with as good a sales motion.
我从未在像 Salesforce 这样大的组织或具有如此出色的销售行动的组织内工作过。
You talked about distribution earlier.
您之前谈到了分发。
Salesforce is an absolutely insane distribution machine, just an incredible company with just an amazing distribution network and a fantastic marketing approach that it's like a PhD in marketing.
Salesforce 是一个绝对疯狂的分销机器，是一家令人难以置信的公司，拥有令人惊叹的分销网络和出色的营销方法，就像营销博士学位一样。
Shaun Clowes: When you spend your time at Salesforce, you're like, "This company is just one of a kind.
Shaun Clowes：当您在 Salesforce 工作时，您会想，“这家公司是独一无二的。
It's a one of kind, and it's so outlandishly good at one specific thing." And so looking back, all of these jobs have been, when I say bingo card, I've just got an outlandish education in these areas that are not obvious at all.
它是独一无二的，而且它在某一特定的事情上表现得异常出色。”所以回想起来，所有这些工作，当我说宾果卡时，我只是在这些领域接受了一点也不明显的奇怪教育。
And once you've seen them, they're like superpowers.
一旦你看到它们，它们就像超能力一样。
They're superpowers to be able to bring that same experience to bear on things.
他们拥有超能力，能够将同样的经验运用到事情上。
And so one thing that I really I'm trying to figure out is why often people don't do that.
所以我真正想弄清楚的一件事是为什么人们常常不这样做。
And oftentimes people stay in a very specific domain.
人们常常停留在一个非常特定的领域。
They prefer to stay in a domain or they prefer to stay in a specific kind of type of company or a role that works in a certain way, like companies that have the same operating model or they plan the same way or they try to stay with things that are pretty similar.
他们更喜欢留在某个领域，或者他们更喜欢留在特定类型的公司或以某种方式运作的角色，例如具有相同运营模式的公司，或者他们以相同的方式计划，或者他们试图留在非常相似的事物中。
But it seems obvious that the most likely way to really grow is the opposite.
但很明显，最有可能真正增长的方式是相反的。
Shaun Clowes: It's to constantly be choosing things that are either outside that, not totally outside the lines.
Shaun Clowes：就是不断地选择一些超出界限的东西，而不是完全超出界限的东西。
Don't jump out of a plane if you've never parachuted before.
如果您以前从未跳伞，请不要从飞机上跳下。
Obviously you want them to be in some way and adjacency, that you want them to have something in common with what you know, but you want them to stretch you and change you.
显然，你希望他们以某种方式相邻，你希望他们与你所知道的有一些共同点，但你希望他们拓展你并改变你。
I had a really transformative experience many, many years ago when I was at Atlassian and a guy called Tom Kennedy, he was our general counsel, so chief legal officer basically, and a lifelong lawyer, very smart guy.
很多很多年前，当我在 Atlassian 工作时，我经历了一次真正变革性的经历，一个叫汤姆·肯尼迪的人，他是我们的总法律顾问，基本上是首席法律官，也是一名终身律师，非常聪明的人。
I liked him very, very much.
我非常非常喜欢他。
But just a lawyer.
但只是一名律师。
Just a lawyer, corporate lawyer, corporate counsel, I'm sure you know what they're like.
只是律师、公司律师、公司法律顾问，我相信你知道他们是什么样的。
And really great guy.
真的很棒的人。
And I remember, so mostly in our meetings he didn't talk that much except about legal things.
我记得，所以在我们的会议上，除了法律方面的事情外，他基本上没有谈论太多。
But I remember in one meeting we were having this vigorous debate about a product strategy question about what we should do.
但我记得在一次会议上，我们就我们应该做什么的产品策略问题进行了激烈的辩论。
Should we go left or should we go right?
我们应该向左走还是向右走？
Shaun Clowes: And as usual, he's there and he's mostly just staying silent.
Shaun Clowes：和往常一样，他就在那里，但大部分时间都保持沉默。
And then eventually the conversation's been going on for 15 minutes and he is like, "Hey, everybody, a year ago we talked about X, Y and Z," and he proceeds to lay out our product strategy at that time, and he's like, "Just recently we said the following things, and that was a product strategy, whatever.
然后最终谈话持续了 15 分钟，他说，“嘿，大家，一年前我们讨论过 X、Y 和 Z，”然后他继续阐述我们当时的产品策略，他说，“就在最近我们说了以下事情，那是一个产品策略，无论如何。
Now you are saying this.
现在你却说这个了。
Isn't it obvious that isn't this?
这不是很明显吗？
What you guys are saying is not congruent with that, and if you really meant what you said back then we should be doing X." And again, the room went silent, everybody kind of turned to him, kind of nodded, and then everyone went, "Yeah, okay, I guess we probably should be doing it differently." And so the meeting stopped when the GCE randomly mentioned that he deeply understood our product strategy and he knew enough to be able to contribute in that way.
你们所说的与此不一致，如果你们真的是所说的话，那么我们应该做X。”房间里再次安静下来，每个人都转向他，点点头，然后每个人都说：“是的，好吧，我想我们可能应该采取不同的做法。”因此，当 GCE 随机提到他深刻理解我们的产品策略并且他知道足够能够以这种方式做出贡献时，会议就停止了。
Shaun Clowes: And so the life-changing part for me about that was just this realization that if I'm going to be a really great professional, the type of professional I want to be is that type of person.
肖恩·克劳斯：所以对我来说，改变生活的部分就是意识到，如果我要成为一名真正伟大的专业人士，我想成为的专业人士类型就是那种人。
The type of person who can contribute to the whole company in all sorts of ways, doesn't spend all of their time in everybody else's business, but understands the business and has the mental horsepower and the experience to be dangerous in all sorts of, and I mean, that in a compliment way.
这种人能够以各种方式为整个公司做出贡献，不会把所有的时间都花在其他人的事情上，而是了解业务，并且拥有应对各种危险的精神力量和经验，我的意思是，以一种恭维的方式。
I don't mean that in a negative way, but to be dangerous in all sorts of situations.
我的意思并不是消极的，而是在各种情况下都是危险的。
I think that when you have leaders like that behind you and with you, then you're just unstoppable.
我认为，当你有这样的领导者在你身后和你身边时，你就会势不可挡。
You're an unstoppable force in business when you have that motion happening.
当你采取行动时，你就是商业中不可阻挡的力量。
Lenny Rachitsky: Wow, that was an awesome story and an awesome perspective.
Lenny Rachitsky：哇，这是一个很棒的故事和很棒的视角。
It's similar to the advice I always give PMs of people always wondering, "Should I go deep on a specific subject?
这类似于我总是给那些总是想知道的 PM 的建议，“我应该深入研究某个特定主题吗？
Should I just try different things?" And I find just variety, especially earlier in your career is really powerful, not just to help you discover the thing you like, but also to your point, just using insights from all these different parts of the product and internal tools and trust and safety and platform and consumer product side and growth and just core stuff.
我应该尝试不同的事情吗？”我发现多样性，尤其是在你职业生涯的早期，真的很强大，不仅可以帮助你发现你喜欢的东西，而且还可以表达你的观点，只需利用来自产品和内部工具、信任、安全、平台、消费产品方面和增长以及核心内容的所有这些不同部分的见解。
The more of that you have, the stronger you get.
你拥有的越多，你就越强大。
And I feel like another benefit of your approach is if you work at just B2B SaaS companies, if you have too many of that on your resume, it's very hard to get hired a consumer company.
我觉得你的方法的另一个好处是，如果你只在 B2B SaaS 公司工作，如果你的简历上有太多这样的内容，那么很难被一家消费品公司聘用。
And so just having it creates a huge optionality for you if you do, which you did.
因此，如果你这样做的话，拥有它就会为你带来巨大的选择权，你也确实这么做了。
Shaun Clowes: Yeah, it's interesting because people used to talk about people who are T-shaped or whatever, and I've never really loved the analogy because it's more like people are scribble shaped.
Shaun Clowes：是的，这很有趣，因为人们过去常常谈论 T 形的人或其他什么，而我从来没有真正喜欢这个类比，因为它更像是人们是涂鸦形状的。
I mean, there's the really best people you've worked with, they're more like scribbles than they are T-shaped because of course you want to be horizontally capable, so you want to be broad and you do want to be deep, but you actually want to be deep in way more than one thing.
我的意思是，有一些与你共事过的真正优秀的人，他们更像是涂鸦而不是 T 形，因为你当然想要横向能力，所以你想要广泛，你确实想要深入，但你实际上想要深入的不仅仅是一件事。
Now obviously when I say deep, I don't mean I'm not able to do the job of our finance function all day every day, but I'm 100% good enough to go three clicks below the simple financial analysis.
显然，当我说“深入”时，我并不是说我无法每天一整天地完成财务职能的工作，而是我 100% 足够好，可以在简单的财务分析下方点击三下。
I can go reasonably deep in our financials because I want to and because it's partly it matters.
我可以相当深入地了解我们的财务状况，因为我愿意这样做，而且这在一定程度上很重要。
It's important to be able to do that.
能够做到这一点很重要。
And so maybe a different way to think about that bingo card is I've rarely regretted going deep in something that isn't quite my job.
因此，也许对宾果卡的另一种思考方式是，我很少后悔深入从事不完全是我的工作的事情。
Shaun Clowes: I've rarely regretted it.
Shaun Clowes：我很少后悔。
The worst case scenario is I've learned something new that I will never use, which I guess at least that made my brain slightly more agile.
最糟糕的情况是我学到了一些我永远不会使用的新东西，我想这至少让我的大脑变得更加敏捷。
I don't know, there must be some potential benefit of that.
我不知道，这肯定有一些潜在的好处。
But the very best case scenario is that when I least suspect it at some point in the future it will turn out to be the thing that matters.
但最好的情况是，当我在未来某个时刻最不怀疑它时，它就会成为重要的事情。
It will be the tool that I need, but I'm facing some important problem and I will be like, "Oh my god, this was worth every cent." And so if you think about it on an ROI basis, doing things that aren't in your wheelhouse, that aren't the things directly in front of you, the ROI can really be outlandish.
这将是我需要的工具，但我面临着一些重要的问题，我会想，“天哪，这值得每一分钱。”因此，如果你从投资回报率的角度来考虑，做那些不在你的掌控范围内的事情，那些不是直接摆在你面前的事情，投资回报率真的会很奇怪。
It can be off the charts great, but I guess it's speculative.
它可能会非常出色，但我认为这是推测性的。
Because you don't know you're going to need it tomorrow.
因为你不知道明天会需要它。
You don't know if it's going to be something that's going to be a regular tool you use.
您不知道它是否会成为您使用的常规工具。
Lenny Rachitsky: What's interesting is the bingo card is the analogy.
Lenny Rachitsky：有趣的是宾果卡就是一个类比。
Is there a bingo moment at the end of this?
最后有宾果游戏吗？
Is there retirement?
有退休吗？
Shaun Clowes: Oh, you mean you've got everything.
肖恩·克劳斯：哦，你的意思是你已经拥有了一切。
You've got the collectible Pokemon?
你有收藏版的口袋妖怪吗？
Shaun Clowes: Yeah, I was working with somebody at Salesforce and he'd been there a long time, very, very, very successful person.
Shaun Clowes：是的，我和 Salesforce 的某人一起工作，他在那里工作了很长时间，是一个非常、非常、非常成功的人。
Honestly didn't need to work anymore.
老实说，不需要再工作了。
And he said something that I found really useful.
他说了一些我觉得非常有用的话。
He's like, "Well, now I'm at the point of my life where I want to work at the intersection of things that I am good at and things that will be valuable to the company to do." So basically it feels like the reward of completing your Bingo card is actually to just get to spend more time doing things that are leverage, that you enjoy and that are high leverage.
他说，“好吧，现在我正处于人生的关键阶段，我想在我擅长的事情和对公司有价值的事情的交叉点上工作。”所以基本上感觉完成宾果卡的奖励实际上就是花更多的时间做一些你喜欢的、高杠杆的事情。
And so that seems like a good outcome to me.
所以这对我来说似乎是一个很好的结果。
I don't think most people are going to work and hopefully have some sort of great financial outcome and then go, "Well, that's it.
我不认为大多数人会去工作并希望获得某种良好的财务成果，然后说：“好吧，就是这样。
I'm picking up stumps, I'm retiring." I think for most people, achieving some sort of financial outcome or some sort of independence or whatever is really just another stage.
我正在捡起树桩，我要退休了。”我认为对于大多数人来说，实现某种财务成果或某种独立或其他什么实际上只是另一个阶段。
At that point it will be, "Okay, well now what do I do?
到那时，就会说：“好吧，现在我该怎么办？
What do I do with my life?"
我的人生该怎么办？”
Shaun Clowes: And so that was why I said earlier that at the end of the day, product management is at times the worst job in the world and at times easily the best.
Shaun Clowes：这就是为什么我之前说过，归根结底，产品管理有时是世界上最糟糕的工作，有时却是世界上最好的工作。
And it's both and it can be both.
两者都是，也可以两者兼而有之。
And so it's hard for me to think about if I think about the things that are the intersection of what I'm good at and are valuable to the world, product management is a pretty fun one to do and it's different every day.
因此，我很难去思考那些我擅长的事情和对世界有价值的事情的交集，产品管理是一件非常有趣的事情，而且每天都在不同。
So I think we're pretty privileged.
所以我认为我们非常荣幸。
For those of you who listen, I mean, obviously your podcast reaches a lot of product people.
我的意思是，对于那些收听的人来说，显然您的播客吸引了很多产品人员。
I think we're pretty privileged to be able to operate at that intersection, but it's not easy because you got to show value.
我认为我们非常荣幸能够在那个十字路口开展业务，但这并不容易，因为你必须展示价值。
It's a very complicated job to show value in and to demonstrate value to the world, and it's constantly being attacked, like you mentioned, but it's still amazing when it all goes right.
向世界展示价值和展示价值是一项非常复杂的工作，而且它不断受到攻击，就像你提到的，但当一切顺利时，它仍然是令人惊奇的。
When a product is very successful in the market, it's hard to describe the joy you get from that.
当一款产品在市场上非常成功时，你所获得的喜悦是难以形容的。
Lenny Rachitsky: Kind of along those lines to close out our conversation before a very exciting lightning round, I want to take us to failure corner.
Lenny Rachitsky：在一场非常激动人心的闪电回合之前，我想按照这些思路来结束我们的谈话，我想把我们带到失败的角落。
People listen to these podcast episodes and everyone's always just sharing all these wins, everything's always going great.
人们收听这些播客节目，每个人总是分享所有这些胜利，一切总是进展顺利。
The CPO of this, CPO of that, just moving on up and people will want to hear times when things didn't go right.
这个的 CPO，那个的 CPO，只要继续前进，人们就会想听到事情进展不顺利的时候。
Because those are stories people don't share as often.
因为这些故事人们不常分享。
Can you share a story when something didn't go right, when you maybe had a failure in the course of your career?
当你在职业生涯中遇到一些失败时，你能分享一个故事吗？
And if you learned something from that experience, what you learned.
如果你从那次经历中学到了一些东西，那就是你学到的东西。
Shaun Clowes: I mean, there's a lot of things that didn't go exactly to plan, Lenny.
肖恩·克劳斯：我的意思是，有很多事情没有完全按计划进行，莱尼。
Very early on in my career, I was still a developer and I accidentally deleted one of the core systems of the company that I was working at.
在我职业生涯的早期，我还是一名开发人员，我不小心删除了我所在公司的一个核心系统。
So that's going to go down in infamy, but luckily that one's far in the rear-view mirror.
所以这将会成为臭名昭著的事，但幸运的是，这种事已经在后视镜里了。
That-
那——
Shaun Clowes: No, that was far pre-Atlassian, but very bad.
Shaun Clowes：不，那是远在阿特拉斯之前的事，但非常糟糕。
Yeah, the one I like to talk about, I wasn't directly responsible for it, but I feel responsible for it.
是的，我喜欢谈论的那个，我对此没有直接责任，但我觉得对此负有责任。
I was at a company and we launched a product.
我在一家公司，我们推出了一款产品。
That was one of those products that in hindsight should have been really obvious it was going to fail, but for some reason we were all blinded by the potential.
这是那些事后看来应该非常明显会失败的产品之一，但由于某种原因，我们都被它的潜力蒙蔽了双眼。
It was a product that was about, it was basically to measure the environmental impact of your company and to help you reduce the environmental impact of your company by doing, think about it as a power management, building power management, managing the power drawer of computers, managing the power drawer of AC and all of that stuff.
这是一个产品，它基本上是为了衡量你的公司对环境的影响，并通过将其视为电源管理、建筑电源管理、管理计算机的电源抽屉、管理交流电的电源抽屉等等来帮助你减少公司的环境影响。
That was the vision basically.
基本上这就是愿景。
It's like a manage your environmental impact of your business.
这就像管理您的业务对环境的影响。
The idea was pretty cool at the time, and also it was the right time for that, and it's still a thing.
这个想法在当时非常酷，而且现在正是这样做的正确时机，而且现在仍然是一件事。
Shaun Clowes: It's still an area of active research and investment or whatever, but it was one of those things, talk about the wrong company, wrong place, wrong time, wrong distribution.
Shaun Clowes：这仍然是一个活跃的研究和投资领域或其他领域，但这是其中之一，谈论错误的公司、错误的地点、错误的时间、错误的分布。
We had literally no right to win, no right to play, just absolutely no business in hindsight being in that business.
我们实际上没有获胜的权利，没有参加比赛的权利，事后看来我们绝对没有参与这项业务的权利。
And I feel really bad because I, again, good idea, wrong company.
我感觉很糟糕，因为我再一次提出了好主意，但公司却错了。
And at the end of the day, we launched the product.
最终，我们推出了该产品。
We actually kept the product in market for two years, and the final straw was weird.
实际上，我们将该产品在市场上保留了两年，最后一根稻草很奇怪。
The final straw was actually when a customer finally wanted to pay for it.
最后一根稻草实际上是当顾客最终愿意付款时。
It had been in market for two years, and we found ourselves with a customer who wanted to pay millions of dollars for it.
它已经上市两年了，我们发现有一位客户愿意支付数百万美元购买它。
They were ready to sign on the dotted line, and that was actually the moment we decided to kill the product because we were like, "If this person signs this piece of paper, we are stuck with this forever.
他们准备在虚线上签名，而那实际上是我们决定终止该产品的那一刻，因为我们想，“如果这个人在这张纸上签名，我们就永远陷入困境。
This one customer will be bound by contracts for however long or whatever."
无论期限多长，该客户都将受到合同的约束。”
Shaun Clowes: So we actually ended up killing it.
Shaun Clowes：所以我们实际上最终杀死了它。
At the moment after two years of failure when somebody wanted to pay his money for it.
在经历了两年的失败之后，当有人想要为此付钱的时候。
And I look back on that and I'm just like, "Man, that was a really big..." I feel really bad because I'm like, "It should have been obvious.
我回想起来，我就想，“伙计，那真是一个很大的……”我感觉很糟糕，因为我想，“这应该是显而易见的。
It was obvious and we should have been able to call a spade a spade and I guess speak truth to power." But instead it kind of got through to the keeper and turned out to be a real accidental drain on resources for years and just a big mistake.
这是显而易见的，我们应该能够直言不讳，我想对权力说实话。”但相反，它却传达给了守门员，结果证明这是多年来资源的真正意外消耗，而且只是一个大错误。
Lenny Rachitsky: So is the lesson there, just be real with yourself?
Lenny Rachitsky：那么，我们的教训是，要真实面对自己吗？
I like that you have this forcing function of like, "Okay, this is getting for real now." Is it like, "I wish we had an earlier forcing function to force us to make a decision?"
我喜欢你有这样的强迫功能，“好吧，现在这是真的了。”是不是像“我希望我们有一个更早的强制功能来迫使我们做出决定？”
Shaun Clowes: Yeah.
肖恩·克劳斯：是的。
I think if I could do it differently, I might not have necessarily been able to 100% change the decision, but I should have tried.
我想如果我能采取不同的做法，我可能不一定能够 100% 改变决定，但我应该尝试一下。
I mean, it was pretty obvious after six months, this thing was a bit of a zombie product walking, and the least I could have done is said, "This thing is dead." We could have called it dead way earlier, but instead we proceeded for another year and a half investing in it.
我的意思是，六个月后很明显，这东西有点像僵尸产品，我至少可以说，“这东西死了。”我们本来可以早点说它已经死了，但我们又继续投资了一年半。
And so that's the bit that makes me feel like real bummer about it.
这就是让我感到真正无赖的一点。
Lenny Rachitsky: It reminds me a recent episode with Raaz who is the CMO at Wiz, and she joined us the first PM and a few weeks into it with doing tons of calls with customers she's like, "I think I need a quick...
Lenny Rachitsky：这让我想起最近 Raaz 的一段经历，Raaz 是 Wiz 的首席营销官，她是我们的第一位产品经理，几周后，她给客户打了很多电话，她说，“我想我需要一个快速的……
Because I don't really understand what we were building.
因为我不太明白我们在构建什么。
I don't get it." And everyone's like, "I don't either." And it just, yeah, the founders just had a vague idea what they're doing, but they didn't really have an idea.
我不明白。”每个人都会说：“我也不喜欢。”是的，创始人只是对他们在做什么有一个模糊的想法，但他们并没有真正的想法。
And that just sparked a, "Okay, wait, no one actually does.
这只是引发了一种“好吧，等等，实际上没有人这样做。
Let's actually get more concrete." And it helped them pivot.
让我们变得更具体吧。”这帮助他们调整了方向。
And now, I don't know if you know about Wiz, but they ended up being the fastest growing startup in history.
现在，我不知道你是否了解 Wiz，但他们最终成为历史上增长最快的初创公司。
Shaun Clowes: Yes.
肖恩·克劳斯：是的。
Isn't that amazing, right?
这不是很神奇吗？
It doesn't mean it's permanently fatal, but asking that question and going through that reckoning turns out that came out stronger.
这并不意味着它是永久致命的，但提出这个问题并进行计算结果证明它更强大。
Lenny Rachitsky: Scary, but it turns out it's for the best often.
Lenny Rachitsky：很可怕，但事实证明这往往是最好的。
Before we get to very exciting lightning round, is there anything else that you want to mention or leave listeners with maybe a last nugget, something that you think might be helpful before we wrap?
在我们进入非常激动人心的闪电回合之前，您还有什么想提的，或者给听众留下最后的金点，您认为在我们结束之前可能有帮助的东西吗？
Shaun Clowes: Maybe a couple of different things that I think are sometimes well understood, but just repeating them I guess because they're very valuable to me.
Shaun Clowes：也许有一些不同的事情我认为有时很好理解，但我想只是重复它们，因为它们对我来说非常有价值。
One is that if you let your calendar rule you, then nothing good will happen.
一是如果你让日历支配你，那么什么好事都不会发生。
I know people talk about that a lot, but it's surprisingly common in product management in particular that people end up ruled by their calendar.
我知道人们经常谈论这一点，但令人惊讶的是，在产品管理中，这种情况很常见，尤其是人们最终被他们的日历所统治。
And so it's related to that whole look at spend 80% of your time thinking about things going on outside the business.
因此，这与花 80% 的时间思考业务之外发生的事情的整体看法有关。
Easy said, very hard to do, and if you don't do it, no one's going to do it for you.
说起来容易，做起来很难，如果你不做，没有人会帮你做。
And so it is really hard to be successful unless you find a way to force that to happen.
因此，除非你找到一种方法来强制成功，否则真的很难成功。
So to repeat that, also, somebody said this to me, I never looked up the quote, but apparently Colin Powell said that if you're making a decision with less than 30% of the available data, you're making a big mistake.
再说一遍，有人对我说过，我从来没有查过这句话，但科林·鲍威尔显然说过，如果你用不到 30% 的可用数据做出决定，那么你就犯了一个大错误。
Shaun Clowes: If you're making a decision only after you have 70%, either the 70% or 77%, I can't remember the exact number, when you have 77% of all the available data, you have waited far too long.
Shaun Clowes：如果你只有在掌握了 70% 后才做出决定，无论是 70% 还是 77%，我记不清确切的数字了，当你掌握了所有可用数据的 77% 时，你已经等得太久了。
And I've always found that very insightful and it relates a little bit to what we're talking about about data earlier, but at the end of the day, we get paid in product management to make decisions, good decisions, paid to make good decisions that will deliver business benefit.
我一直发现这非常有洞察力，它与我们之前谈论的数据有一点关系，但归根结底，我们在产品管理中获得报酬来做出决策，好的决策，获得报酬来做出能够带来商业利益的好的决策。
And a decision with too little data is fatal.
数据太少的决定是致命的。
A decision that takes too long and collects too much data is also fatal.
花费太长时间并收集太多数据的决策也是致命的。
So everything, it's about trying to find the balance of all of these different things to try and deliver business advantage.
因此，一切都是为了尝试找到所有这些不同事物的平衡，以尝试并提供业务优势。
Lenny Rachitsky: A great way to circle back to all the things we've been talking about.
Lenny Rachitsky：这是一个很好的方式来回顾我们一直在谈论的所有事情。
With that, we've reached our very exciting lightning round.
至此，我们进入了非常激动人心的闪电回合。
Are you ready?
你准备好了吗？
Lenny Rachitsky: Let's do it.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：让我们开始吧。
What are two or three books that you have recommended most to other people?
您向其他人推荐最多的两三本书是什么？
Shaun Clowes: Yeah, they oldies but goodies, is probably going to be The Lean Startup that I still find actually really good.
Shaun Clowes：是的，他们很老，但是很不错，可能会成为我仍然认为非常好的精益创业公司。
And the key lessons in there I still think are very applicable to a lot of people, particularly the cohort analysis bit, which for some reason I still don't see people do anywhere near enough cohort analysis.
我仍然认为其中的关键教训非常适用于很多人，特别是队列分析部分，出于某种原因，我仍然没有看到人们进行足够的队列分析。
So there you go, that's my little tip.
好了，这就是我的小建议。
And then INSPIRED: How to build products that people love by Marty Kagan and the Silicon Valley product group.
然后是《灵感：如何打造人们喜爱的产品》，作者：Marty Kagan 和硅谷产品团队。
That's an oldie but a goodie.
这是一个老东西，但一个好东西。
I think it's got a lot of the key lessons of product management in it, even though it's been around for a long time.
我认为它包含了很多产品管理的关键经验教训，尽管它已经存在很长时间了。
Lenny Rachitsky: Those are some classics.
Lenny Rachitsky：这些都是一些经典。
Very cool.
非常酷。
Do you have a favorite recent movie or TV show you really enjoyed?
您最近有最喜欢的电影或电视节目吗？
Shaun Clowes: I'm watching a program.
肖恩·克劳斯：我正在看一个节目。
I don't get to watch very much TV, mostly at night.
我很少看电视，大部分是在晚上。
I like to watch things that are extremely light, that just don't at all inspire any element of stress and that are very short.
我喜欢看那些非常轻松的东西，根本不会激发任何压力，而且非常短。
So basically short and funny is basically my thing.
所以基本上简短而有趣基本上是我的风格。
And there's a new program on Netflix, I think it's called Detroiters.
Netflix 上有一个新节目，我想它叫《底特律》。
Shaun Clowes: Yeah, it's really funny.
肖恩·克劳斯：是的，这真的很有趣。
I really like that.
我真的很喜欢这样。
It's so ridiculous, but very funny.
这真是太可笑了，但是又非常好笑。
So I like that.
所以我喜欢这样。
Lenny Rachitsky: The main guy, he's so funny.
Lenny Rachitsky：主要人物，他太有趣了。
I forget his name.
我忘记了他的名字。
Tim Sweeney or something like that.
蒂姆·斯威尼或类似的人。
Yeah, he's so good.
是啊，他太好了。
Good one.
好一个。
I've been watching that, I'm loving it.
我一直在看这个，我很喜欢它。
It's very quirky.
这很古怪。
I think the New York Times quote on there is "Very weird," the quote.
我认为《纽约时报》的引述是“非常奇怪”。
Shaun Clowes: It's so weird.
肖恩·克劳斯：这太奇怪了。
In the first episode I'm like, "What is this show?" It's not even clear what time it set in, and it's very weird.
在第一集中，我想，“这是什么节目？”甚至不清楚现在是什么时间，而且很奇怪。
It's really cool.
真的很酷。
Lenny Rachitsky: Yes.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：是的。
Well, good way to describe it.
嗯，描述它的好方法。
Next question, do you have a favorite product you've recently discovered that you really love?
下一个问题，您最近发现有一款您真正喜欢的最喜欢的产品吗？
Shaun Clowes: Yeah, this one, some of your listeners might be using it, but Glean, it's a pretty well-known startup now.
Shaun Clowes：是的，这个，你的一些听众可能会使用它，但是 Glean，它现在是一家非常知名的初创公司。
They recently raised a ton of money.
他们最近筹集了大量资金。
We've been using Glean at Confluent for a long time and it's just amazing.
我们在 Confluence 上使用 Glean 已经很长时间了，它非常棒。
It's just amazing.
这真是太棒了。
I can't describe how good it is.
我无法描述它有多好。
And I don't say this lightly because I think search, like business search is probably one of the hardest problems in computing.
我这么说并不是轻率的，因为我认为搜索（如商业搜索）可能是计算中最难的问题之一。
Actually getting it right is one of the hardest problems in computing.
实际上，正确地解决问题是计算中最困难的问题之一。
Amazing.
太棒了。
It's not often I use a product and I'm like, "This thing is 10 times better than anything that's come before it." It's one of those for me.
我不经常使用某种产品，但我会想，“这个东西比之前的任何产品都要好 10 倍。”这对我来说就是其中之一。
Lenny Rachitsky: What's the simplest way to understand what it does for you?
Lenny Rachitsky：了解它对您有何作用的最简单方法是什么？
Shaun Clowes: It searches all of our organization's knowledge.
Shaun Clowes：它会搜索我们组织的所有知识。
So the thing you were just saying before, you're like, "What does AST mean?" If I had that in a meeting, I just open my new tab, it'll automatically take over my new tab or just like, "What does AST mean?" And it will summarize back to me what AST means and it'll give me a link to all the documents inside our company that just grab what AST means and then it will tell me who the expert in AST at our company is.
所以你刚才说的话，你会想，“AST 是什么意思？”如果我在会议中遇到这种情况，我只需打开新选项卡，它就会自动接管我的新选项卡，或者就像“AST 是什么意思？”它会向我总结 AST 的含义，并提供我们公司内部所有文档的链接，这些文档仅了解 AST 的含义，然后它会告诉我我们公司的 AST 专家是谁。
It's like having a second brain.
这就像拥有第二个大脑。
It's an insanely cool organization searching.
这是一个非常酷的搜索组织。
Lenny Rachitsky: Great tip.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：很棒的建议。
Okay, two more questions.
好吧，还有两个问题。
Do you have a favorite life motto that you come back to share with folks, find useful and work during life?
您是否有最喜欢的人生格言，您会回来与人们分享，发现它在生活中有用并发挥作用？
Shaun Clowes: I think about this one a lot.
Shaun Clowes：我经常思考这个问题。
When I started off in my career, I was an engineer's engineer.
当我开始职业生涯时，我是一名工程师中的工程师。
I used to very much about technical correctness and what computers were capable of, and technical righteousness, the right answer rather than there is only one right answer and whatever.
我曾经非常关注技术正确性和计算机的能力，以及技术正确性、正确答案，而不是只有一个正确答案之类的。
It's a long-winded way of saying that I often think about this phrase, which is people don't care what you know until they know that you care.
这是一个冗长的说法，我经常想到这句话，那就是人们不会关心你知道什么，直到他们知道你关心。
And so I've realized that really being able to influence people, it doesn't matter about whether or not you're right or whether or not you're wrong.
所以我意识到，真正能够影响别人，无论你是对是错，都不重要。
And at the end of the day, it's first about trust and about relationships and caring about what each other's outcomes are, what their incentives are, and all good things sit on top of that.
归根结底，首先是关于信任、关系、关心彼此的结果、他们的动机是什么，以及所有美好的事物都在此之上。
Once you have those kind of foundations, then you can build really good partnerships and that's where good progress comes from.
一旦你有了这些基础，你就可以建立真正良好的合作伙伴关系，这就是良好进展的来源。
Lenny Rachitsky: Wow, that is so good.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：哇，那太好了。
It connects with Radical Candor, similar in theory of just caring.
它与激进的坦诚相联系，与公正关怀的理论相似。
People need to feel like you care deeply about them before they take your advice.
人们需要感觉到你非常关心他们，然后才会接受你的建议。
And it also connects with this parenting book I'm reading called Listen, that a previous guest recommended, which is all about how your kids have problems when they feel like your connection to them is weak.
它还与我正在读的一本名为《倾听》的育儿书有关，这是一位前一位客人推荐的，这本书讲述的是当你的孩子觉得你与他们的联系很弱时，他们会遇到什么问题。
And so the solution is to build a stronger connection for them to know that you cared deeply about them.
因此，解决方案是为他们建立更牢固的联系，让他们知道你非常关心他们。
So this is really, connected so much of what I've been reading.
所以这确实与我一直在读的内容有很大的联系。
Lenny Rachitsky: Great one.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：太棒了。
Final question.
最后一个问题。
You were born in Sydney, folks can maybe guess by your accent.
你出生在悉尼，人们也许可以通过你的口音猜出。
If someone were to visit Sydney, any tips, anything you think they should check out, favorite thing in Sydney?
如果有人要访问悉尼，有什么建议吗？您认为他们应该检查什么？悉尼最喜欢的事情？
Shaun Clowes: Yeah, Sydney is a really beautiful city and it's kind of famous for its beaches and it's basically a metropolitan city.
Shaun Clowes：是的，悉尼是一个非常美丽的城市，它以其海滩而闻名，基本上是一个大都市。
People probably be very surprised when you visit it.
当你参观它时，人们可能会感到非常惊讶。
It's a very big city, very metropolitan, a little bit like New York, but New York with really beautiful beaches, if you want to think about it that way, it's kind of crazy.
这是一个非常大的城市，非常大都市，有点像纽约，但是纽约有非常美丽的海滩，如果你想这样想，那就有点疯狂了。
But there's actually a ton of really cool nature and beautiful things all around Sydney.
但实际上悉尼周围有很多非常酷的自然风光和美丽的事物。
And so if you want to do something like off the beaten path, you can actually go to, there's an area called the Blue Mountains, which is like an hour and a half drive from Sydney, and you can abseil down a waterfall, which is, well actually firstly you go canyoning through a canyon full of water, and then you abseil off a waterfall at the end.
所以如果你想做一些人迹罕至的事情，你实际上可以去，有一个叫蓝山的地区，距离悉尼大约一个半小时车程，你可以从瀑布上绕绳下降，实际上，首先你要在一个充满水的峡谷中进行溪降，然后最后从瀑布上绕绳下降。
And if you're looking for just a really beautiful, fun kind of adventure like thing, an hour and a bit away from a massive metropolitan city, that's my sort of happy place.
如果你只是在寻找一种真正美丽、有趣的冒险之类的东西，距离大城市一小时多一点的路程，那就是我喜欢的地方。
Really beautiful outdoors stuff while also next to a beautiful city.
非常美丽的户外活动，同时也毗邻一座美丽的城市。
Lenny Rachitsky: And you said you sail, what sort of sail off a waterfall?
Lenny Rachitsky：你说你要航行，什么样的航行是从瀑布上航行的？
Shaun Clowes: Abseil.
肖恩·克劳斯：绳降。
You might think of it as rappelling.
你可能会认为它是绳索下降。
Rappelling, I think.
我想是速降。
Yeah, lowering yourself down on a rope or...
是的，用绳子把自己降下来，或者……
Lenny Rachitsky: Got it.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：明白了。
Because when I hear sail, I'm thinking a boat just jumps through over the waterfall.
因为当我听到帆声时，我就想到一艘船刚刚跳过瀑布。
Shaun Clowes: Oh, no, abseiling which is also, I think in the States you guys call it rappelling.
肖恩·克劳斯：哦，不，绳索下降，我想在美国你们称之为速降。
Lenny Rachitsky: Rappelling, yeah.
Lenny Rachitsky：绳降，是的。
Wow.
哇。
Very cool.
非常酷。
Shaun, you're awesome.
肖恩，你真棒。
This was extremely cool.
这太酷了。
Thank you so much for being here.
非常感谢您来到这里。
Two final questions.
最后两个问题。
Where can folks find you online if they want to reach out?
如果人们想联系您，可以在哪里找到您？
Also point folks to your Reforge courses that you created.
还向人们介绍您创建的 Reforge 课程。
And final question, how can listeners be useful to you?
最后一个问题，听众如何对你有用？
Shaun Clowes: Sure.
肖恩·克劳斯：当然。
Yeah, so my Reforge courses, you can check them all out at reforge.com, as you mentioned, the retention, engagement course and the data for product managers course, so love to see folks get some value from that.
是的，所以我的 Reforge 课程，你可以在 reforge.com 上查看它们，正如你提到的，保留率、参与度课程和产品经理数据课程，所以很高兴看到人们从中获得一些价值。
Lots of people have been through those courses already and I really get a lot of value from it because like I said, one of my goals is to help all of us be better product people.
很多人已经完成了这些课程，我确实从中获得了很多价值，因为就像我说的，我的目标之一是帮助我们所有人成为更好的产品人员。
I think our leverage could be massive.
我认为我们的杠杆作用可能是巨大的。
Where you can get in touch with me, obviously on LinkedIn, but also ShaunMClowes on X, if you want to get in touch.
您可以在 LinkedIn 上与我联系，如果您想联系，也可以在 X 上与 ShaunMClowes 联系。
And in terms of being useful to me, I mean, broadly speaking, I'm always open to new ideas.
就对我有用而言，我的意思是，从广义上讲，我总是对新想法持开放态度。
If people have ideas about how to do better B2B, PLG, better B2B product-led sales, for example, better ways of going about distribution and product-led sales and product-led growth inside enterprise companies, hey, I'm open to learn myself.
如果人们有关于如何做得更好的 B2B、PLG、更好的 B2B 产品主导销售的想法，例如，如何更好地进行分销、产品主导的销售以及企业内部产品主导的增长，嘿，我愿意自学。
We're all in one big journey learning how to do this better.
我们都在一个伟大的旅程中学习如何更好地做到这一点。
Lenny Rachitsky: So true.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：确实如此。
Shaun, thank you so much for being here.
肖恩，非常感谢你来到这里。
Shaun Clowes: Awesome, thank you very much, Lenny.
肖恩·克劳斯：太棒了，非常感谢你，莱尼。
It was great.
太棒了。
Lenny Rachitsky: Bye, everyone.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：再见，大家。
Thank you so much for listening.
非常感谢您的聆听。
If you found this valuable, you can subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app.
如果您发现这很有价值，您可以在 Apple Podcasts、Spotify 或您最喜欢的播客应用程序上订阅该节目。
Also, please consider giving us a rating or leaving a review as that really helps other listeners find the podcast.
另外，请考虑给我们评分或留下评论，因为这确实有助于其他听众找到播客。
You can find all past episodes or learn more about the show at LennysPodcast.com.
您可以在 LennysPodcast.com 上找到所有过去的剧集或了解有关该节目的更多信息。
See you in the next episode.
下一集见。