Good Strategy, Bad Strategy | Richard Rumelt

Richard Rumelt: Don't call it strategy, call it an action agenda.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：不要称之为战略，而称之为行动议程。

It's huge numbers of people out there willing to sell you advice on mission and your vision and your values, all these things that have to be in place before you can have strategy.

有大量的人愿意向你推销有关使命、愿景和价值观的建议，所有这些都必须在你制定战略之前就位。

That's not true.

那不是真的。

Begin to try to identify the one or two key challenges that can actually be addressed and what are we going to do about it?

开始尝试确定实际上可以解决的一两个关键挑战以及我们将采取什么措施？

What are the coherent actions we're going to do to take these on?

我们将采取哪些连贯的行动来应对这些问题？

Okay, we're going to go after this and here's the action steps we're going to take to do that.

好的，我们将继续解决这个问题，这是我们为此要采取的行动步骤。

That's the essence of what you're doing when you're thinking strategically.

当你进行战略思考时，这就是你所做事情的本质。

Lenny: Today my guest is Richard Rumelt.

莱尼：今天我的客人是理查德·鲁梅尔特。

Richard is an absolute legend in the world of strategy.

理查德是战略界绝对的传奇人物。

It was such an honor to have him come on the podcast.

很荣幸他能来播客。

He's the author of Good Strategy Bad Strategy, which I've gifted to countless people who wanted to become more strategic.

他是《好战略》《坏战略》一书的作者，我将这本书送给了无数想要变得更有战略眼光的人。

He's been mentioned so many times on this podcast.

他在这个播客中被多次提及。

He's also the author of The Crux, his most recent book, which some consider his best book, which delves even further into his advice on how to craft a winning strategy.

他还是他最近出版的《The Crux》一书的作者，有些人认为这本书是他最好的书，书中进一步探讨了他关于如何制定制胜策略的建议。

Lenny: Richard was a longtime professor at UCLA Anderson School of Management, was on the faculty of Harvard Business School, and he's consulted on strategy with companies like Microsoft, Apple and Intel, and also with government organizations like the US Army Special Ops Command, and folks like Donald Rumsfeld.

莱尼：理查德是加州大学洛杉矶分校安德森管理学院的长期教授，也是哈佛商学院的教员，他为微软、苹果和英特尔等公司、美国陆军特种作战司令部等政府组织以及唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德等人提供了战略咨询。

In our conversation, Richard shares the concrete elements that make a good strategy, why we'd be better off calling them action agendas rather than strategies, why every great strategy starts with a clear diagnosis of the biggest challenge that you face.

在我们的谈话中，理查德分享了制定良好战略的具体要素，为什么我们最好将其称为行动议程而不是战略，为什么每个伟大的战略都始于对您面临的最大挑战的清晰诊断。

Also, how to actually lay out a strategy, why organizational dynamics are often the biggest hindrance to winning strategies and so much more.

此外，如何实际制定战略、为什么组织动态往往是制胜战略的最大障碍等等。

I could keep going, but let me just say we cover a lot of ground in this episode and Richard shares incredibly thoughtful and deep answers to each question.

我可以继续说下去，但我只想说，我们在这一集中涵盖了很多内容，理查德对每个问题都给出了令人难以置信的深思熟虑和深刻的答案。

I'm excited to bring you Richard Rumelt, after a short word from our sponsors.

在我们的赞助商简短致辞后，我很高兴为您带来理查德·鲁梅尔特。

Lenny: Let me tell you about CommandBar.

莱尼：让我告诉你有关 CommandBar 的事情。

If you're like me and most users I've built product for, you'll probably find those little in-product pop-up really annoying.

如果您像我和我为其构建产品的大多数用户一样，您可能会发现那些小的产品内弹出窗口非常烦人。

Want to take a tour?

想参观一下吗？

Check out this new feature.

看看这个新功能。

And these pop-ups are becoming less and less effective since most users don't read what they say, they just want to close them as soon as possible.

这些弹出窗口的效果越来越差，因为大多数用户不会阅读他们所说的内容，他们只想尽快关闭它们。

But every product builder knows that users need help to learn the ins and outs of your product.

但每个产品构建者都知道，用户需要帮助来了解产品的细节。

We use so many products every day and we can't possibly know the ins and outs of every one.

我们每天使用如此多的产品，我们不可能知道每一种产品的来龙去脉。

Lenny: CommandBar is an AI-powered toolkit for product growth, marketing and customer teams to help users get the most out of your product without annoying them.

Lenny：CommandBar 是一款由人工智能驱动的工具包，适用于产品开发、营销和客户团队，可帮助用户充分利用您的产品，而不会打扰他们。

They use AI to get closer to user intent, so they have search and chat products that let users describe what they're trying to do in their own words and then see personalized results like customer walkthroughs or actions.

他们使用人工智能来更接近用户意图，因此他们拥有搜索和聊天产品，让用户用自己的话描述他们想要做什么，然后看到个性化结果，例如客户演练或操作。

And they do pop-ups too, but their nudges are based on in-product behaviors like confusion or intent classification, which makes them much less annoying and much more impactful.

他们也做弹出窗口，但他们的推动是基于产品内的行为，如混淆或意图分类，这使得它们不那么烦人，而且更有影响力。

This works for web apps, mobile apps and websites, and they work with industry-leading companies like Gusto, Freshworks, HashiCorp, and LaunchDarkly.

这适用于网络应用程序、移动应用程序和网站，并且他们与 Gusto、Freshworks、HashiCorp 和 LaunchDarkly 等行业领先的公司合作。

Over 15 million end-users have interacted with CommandBar.

超过 1500 万最终用户与 CommandBar 进行过交互。

To try out CommandBar, you can sign up at CommandBar.com/Lenny and you can unlock an extra 1,000 AI responses per month for any plan.

要试用 CommandBar，您可以在 CommandBar.com/Lenny 上注册，并且您可以为任何计划每月解锁额外 1,000 个 AI 响应。

That's CommandBar.com/Lenny.

这是 CommandBar.com/Lenny。

Lenny: This episode is brought to you by Miro.

莱尼：这一集是米罗给你带来的。

Do you ever feel like your projects aren't as organized as you like them to be or it's way too hard for people on your team to find all of the documents and files and context that they need for their project?

您是否曾经感觉您的项目没有像您希望的那样井井有条，或者您的团队中的人员很难找到他们的项目所需的所有文档、文件和上下文？

Miro helps you streamline your workflows, organize information, and get your whole team on the same page.

Miro 可帮助您简化工作流程、组织信息并使整个团队达成共识。

If you want to see what Miro can do for you, check out my Miro board that the Miro team helped me create, which includes all of my favorite plug-and-play templates, like a user journey map, my favorite one-pager template plus a brainstorming guide.

如果您想了解 Miro 可以为您做什么，请查看 Miro 团队帮助我创建的 Miro 板，其中包括我最喜欢的所有即插即用模板，例如用户旅程地图、我最喜欢的单页模板以及头脑风暴指南。

My board also has a place for you to share suggestions for this podcast and also answer a question that I have for you.

我的董事会还设有一个地方，供您分享对此播客的建议，并回答我向您提出的问题。

You can then take my Miro board and easily create your own to see how it feels.

然后，您可以使用我的 Miro 板轻松创建自己的板，看看感觉如何。

Make sure to check out some of my favorite features, like the sticky notes, the inline comments and charts, and also the really cool diagramming tools.

请务必查看一些我最喜欢的功能，例如便签、内联注释和图表，以及非常酷的图表工具。

Lenny: Check it out at Miro.com/Lenny.

Lenny：请访问 Miro.com/Lenny。

Your first three Miro boards are free when you sign up today at Miro.com/Lenny.

当您今天在 Miro.com/Lenny 注册时，您的前三个 Miro 板是免费的。

Find simplicity in your most complex projects with Miro.

使用 Miro 让您最复杂的项目变得简单。

That's MIRO.com/Lenny.

那是 MIRO.com/Lenny。

Lenny: Richard, thank you so much for being here and welcome to the podcast.

莱尼：理查德，非常感谢你来到这里，欢迎来到播客。

Richard Rumelt: Thank you for having me, Lenny.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：谢谢你邀请我，莱尼。

Lenny: It is such an honor to have you on this podcast.

莱尼：很荣幸您能参加这个播客。

So many guests on the podcast have mentioned you and mentioned the book.

播客上的很多嘉宾都提到了你并提到了这本书。

I probably bought your book for, I don't know, dozens of people over the years, and it is just so cool to have you on and to get to delve into the stuff that you teach.

多年来，我可能为数十人购买了您的书，我不知道，有您的帮助并深入研究您所教授的内容真是太酷了。

So thank you again for being here.

再次感谢您来到这里。

Lenny: I thought we'd start at the beginning and then work our way up and kind of see where the conversation goes.

莱尼：我想我们应该从头开始，然后逐步推进，看看对话会走向何方。

What is the simplest way to understand a strategy?

理解策略的最简单方法是什么？

What is a strategy, and then what are the essential components of a good strategy?

什么是战略，那么一个好的战略的基本组成部分是什么？

Richard Rumelt: Well, a strategy is a design for overcoming a high-stakes challenge.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：嗯，战略是克服高风险挑战的设计。

It's a mixture of policy and action designed to deal with a challenge.

这是旨在应对挑战的政策和行动的结合。

The challenge could have an upside.

这一挑战可能有好处。

It could be, "Oh geez, we were fooling around in the back 40 and we discovered oil, what we do?" Or it could be negative, could be that new innovation is driving us out of the market.

可能是，“天啊，我们在 40 英里后面闲逛，发现了石油，我们该怎么办？”或者它可能是负面的，可能是新的创新正在将我们赶出市场。

But a challenge is the hardest strategy.

但挑战是最难的策略。

The work comes from Strategos, which is Greek.

该作品来自希腊语Strategos。

The Greeks elected 10 Strategoi to serve as strategic leaders at Athens.

希腊人选举了 10 名战略顾问作为雅典的战略领导人。

And they were elected and they dealt with issues of the day, the Persians are invading, there's a plague in town, we need money for a new temple.

他们当选并处理当今的问题，波斯人正在入侵，镇上有瘟疫，我们需要钱建造一座新寺庙。

And that's where the word comes to us from.

这就是这个词的由来。

It isn't just military, it wasn't in Athens.

这不仅仅是军事上的，也不是在雅典。

So strategy is always about dealing with an issue, a challenge, a problem.

所以战略总是关于处理一个问题、一个挑战、一个问题。

What are we going to do about global warring?

面对全球战争，我们该怎么办？

What are we going to do about China wants to reunify with Taiwan?

中国想要统一台湾，我们该怎么办？

Lenny: You obviously have these very infamous famous elements of a good strategy, something you call the colonel.

莱尼：你显然拥有这些非常臭名昭著的好战略的著名元素，你称之为上校。

Can you just talk through those pieces?

你能谈谈这些片段吗？

Richard Rumelt: Right, sure.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：是的，当然。

So when I used to teach strategy for many years at Harvard and then at UCLA and other places, there's lots of ways of looking at strategy.

因此，当我在哈佛大学、加州大学洛杉矶分校和其他地方教授战略多年时，有很多看待战略的方法。

And so years and years ago, we used to look at the and the matrix and the five forces and all of those kinds of analytical tools.

所以很多年前，我们常常研究矩阵和五种力以及所有这些类型的分析工具。

And it began to dawn on me at some point that this is a strategy.

在某个时候我开始意识到这是一种策略。

These are analytical tools for analyzing the problem, for thinking about things, for looking at competition.

这些是分析问题、思考事物、观察竞争的分析工具。

But they're not strategy.

但它们不是战略。

Strategy is, one, and I started to write a book and the first chapter of the book was...

策略是，一个，我开始写一本书，这本书的第一章是……

the first part I wrote was the David and Goliath strategy story.

我写的第一部分是大卫和歌利亚的战略故事。

And my point in writing about David and Goliath was that the surprise that David is able to beat this giant warrior, and that's a strategy story.

我写关于大卫和歌利亚的观点是，大卫能够击败这个巨人战士，这令人惊讶，这是一个战略故事。

Strategy story is about discovered strength.

战略故事是关于发现力量的。

Richard Rumelt: It's about, oh wow, look at how they did that.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：哦，哇，看看他们是怎么做到的。

Look at how he got made in five moves.

看看他是如何通过五个动作完成的。

That's a strategy story.

这是一个策略故事。

Look at how Steve Jobs changed the world when people couldn't expect it.

看看史蒂夫·乔布斯如何在人们意想不到的情况下改变了世界。

That's emotionally what a strategy story is.

从情感上讲，这就是策略故事。

So I want to write about strategy.

所以我想写一篇关于策略的文章。

And my wife Kate asked me, "Well, do you define strategy?" I said, "Oh, it's really hard.

我的妻子凯特问我：“那么，你对战略有定义吗？”我说：“哦，这真的很难。

I can't define it." And she said, "Well, you can't write a book about it if you can't define it." Because I said I had this other conceptual scheme in my head that all teachers and writers had, which is that there's a bunch of analytical tools.

我无法定义它。”她说：“好吧，如果你不能定义它，你就不能写一本关于它的书。”因为我说过我脑子里有所有老师和作家都有的另一个概念方案，那就是有一堆分析工具。

And this is back in 2005, 2004.

这还是2005年、2004年的事了。

Richard Rumelt: And I gradually came to the realization all strategy is problem solving.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：我逐渐意识到所有策略都是为了解决问题。

It's a form of dealing with challenges, and that was a basic idea going in the book.

这是应对挑战的一种形式，这是本书中的基本思想。

So if that's the core of it, what's the basic activity?

那么，如果这是它的核心，那么基本活动是什么？

What are you doing when you create a strategy?

当你制定策略时你在做什么？

Well, you're diagnosing the situation.

嗯，你正在诊断情况。

You're trying to figure out what's going on here.

你正试图弄清楚这里发生了什么。

What's the nature of reality that you're dealing with?

你所面对的现实的本质是什么？

Now, humans can't understand all of reality.

现在，人类无法理解现实的全部。

No one can.

没有人可以。

So part of what a diagnosis is, is a decision about what you're going to pay attention to and the hypothesis for several hypotheses about what's going on, how do things connect together.

因此，诊断的一部分是决定您要关注什么，以及对正在发生的事情以及事物如何联系在一起的几种假设的假设。

And that's beginning of the diagnosis.

这就是诊断的开始。

And so diagnosis is an understanding of the situation that you're in.

因此，诊断就是了解您所处的情况。

Well, that's not novel.

嗯，这不是什么新鲜事。

And you can use any of those tools that are famous for that and you can try to find forces.

您可以使用任何以此而闻名的工具，并且可以尝试寻找力量。

You can do any one of a number of things to try to comprehend the situation.

您可以采取多种措施中的任何一项来尝试了解情况。

The world is more complicated than 2x2s, unfortunately.

不幸的是，世界比 2x2 更复杂。

I was educated as an electrical engineer and my early years were spent designing spacecraft for NASA.

我接受的是电气工程师教育，早年为美国宇航局设计航天器。

And when I got into looking at business and business strategy stuff, I was always amazed at how unintellectual it was, that I was struggling to master Z-transforms and multiple, and yet these people are looking at 2x2s and little diagrams , oh, that's what the company's about.

当我开始研究商业和商业策略的东西时，我总是惊讶于它是多么不理智，我正在努力掌握 Z 变换和多重，但这些人却在看 2x2 和小图表，哦，这就是公司的目的。

So a rich diagnosis of the situation, but then a guiding policy.

因此，对形势进行了丰富的诊断，然后制定了指导政策。

Richard Rumelt: The guiding policy is what are we going to do?

理查德·鲁梅尔特：指导方针是我们要做什么？

Now, it's a simple thing to say, a guiding policy, and the guiding policy is sort of the strategy.

说起来简单，就是指导性政策，指导性政策就是战略。

It's the core of it.

这是它的核心。

It's here's how we're dealing with the situation.

这就是我们处理这种情况的方式。

And yet, when I say that, it flies in the face of, as I was writing that, I had a client who had 17 priorities.

然而，当我这么说时，它与我写这篇文章时的情况背道而驰，我的客户有 17 个优先事项。

This is what we're doing.

这就是我们正在做的事情。

We have 17 priorities.

我们有 17 个优先事项。

And that's the opposite of policy.

这与政策相反。

That's a laundry list of all the things we wish would happen over the next year.

这是我们希望明年发生的所有事情的清单。

We're going to gain market share in China, we're going to cut our emissions, we're going to save energy, we're going to become safer, we're going to cut costs, all these different things that we're going to do.

我们将在中国获得市场份额，我们将减少排放，我们将节约能源，我们将变得更安全，我们将削减成本，我们将要做所有这些不同的事情。

And they're all priorities.

它们都是优先事项。

Now, lots of people need misuse the word priority when they're trying to do all that.

现在，很多人在尝试做所有这些事情时都需要滥用“优先级”这个词。

You wouldn't want to be in a commercial airplane and hear the tower say to the pilot, "I'm giving priority to the following three planes on runway five." Right away, you know there's something wrong.

您不会想在一架商用飞机上听到塔台对飞行员说：“我正在优先考虑第五跑道上的以下三架飞机。”你马上就知道出事了。

Richard Rumelt: Well, that's the word priority, it means the first.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：嗯，这就是优先级这个词，它的意思是第一。

It doesn't mean the grab back everything that you can think of that might matter.

这并不意味着夺回你能想到的一切可能很重要。

It means what's first.

意思就是什么是第一。

And so the guiding policy is sort at that level of what do we really have to do here and what are we doing and what are we not doing to deal with the diagnosis that we created?

因此，指导政策是在这样一个层面上的：我们在这里真正必须做什么，我们正在做什么，我们不做什么来处理我们创建的诊断？

Richard Rumelt: And then the most important part of a strategy, the part that it's so easy to leave out because people like to think of strategy as this high level conceptual thing, is the coherent action.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：战略中最重要的部分是连贯的行动，这部分很容易被遗漏，因为人们喜欢将战略视为高层次的概念性事物。

You have to do something.

你必须做点什么。

And what you do has to be coherent in several ways.

你所做的事情必须在几个方面保持一致。

The first way is it has to deal with the problem or the diagnosis and the guiding policy, it has to implement.

第一个方法是它必须处理问题或诊断和指导政策，它必须实施。

It has to be coherent in that you shouldn't do things that fight each other.

它必须是连贯的，因为你不应该做互相争斗的事情。

Richard Rumelt: You shouldn't say, "Oh, we are going to burn less oil and at the same time we're going to import more oil." It doesn't make any sense to do things that are self-contradictory.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：你不应该说，“哦，我们将燃烧更少的石油，同时我们将进口更多的石油。”做一些自相矛盾的事情是没有任何意义的。

And yet, people do it.

然而，人们却这么做了。

Most companies have strategic goals of increasing growth and increasing profit.

大多数公司都有促进增长和增加利润的战略目标。

Magically, that can happen in some cases.

神奇的是，在某些情况下这可能会发生。

Growth and profit, they battle each other.

增长和利润，它们互相争斗。

Let's say we define profit as return on equity.

假设我们将利润定义为股本回报率。

If you're going to increase growth and increase return on equity, how do you do that?

如果您要提高增长并提高股本回报率，您该怎么做？

Because you're basically trying to invest less to get your return on equity up.

因为你基本上是在尝试减少投资来提高股本回报率。

Or you're going to grow and get your profit margin up.

或者您将实现增长并提高利润率。

Well, how are you going to do that?

那么，你打算怎么做呢？

You get your profit margin up and grow faster.

您的利润率会提高并增长得更快。

Richard Rumelt: This is baby talk, but CEO after CEO will stand up and say, "Well, we're going to grow and we're going to make a profit." And so having coherent actions, actions that dump milk on one another is an important part of strategy.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：这是儿戏，但一个又一个的首席执行官会站起来说：“好吧，我们会成长，我们会盈利。”因此，采取一致的行动、相互倾倒牛奶的行动是战略的重要组成部分。

All three elements have to be there.

所有三个要素都必须存在。

There has to be an understanding of the situation.

必须对情况有所了解。

There has to be a guiding policy, how are we going to deal with it?

要有一个指导性的政策，怎么应对？

And that could be a long-term sense of how we could change.

这可能是我们如何改变的长期意识。

You don't have to change your strategy every five minutes or every five years.

您不必每五分钟或每五年改变一次策略。

If you're making Almond Joy candy bars or something, you don't really change your strategy constantly.

如果你正在制作杏仁欢乐糖果棒或其他东西，你并不会真正不断地改变你的策略。

If you're in the tech business, of course you have a shorter time horizon.

如果你从事科技行业，当然你的时间范围会更短。

And then the coherence and action is critical.

然后，一致性和行动就至关重要。

And so these are the three, what I call basic elements, the kernel that if anyone in three is missing, something's wrong.

这就是我所说的三个基本元素，如果缺少三个元素中的任何一个，那么就会出现问题。

It's not really a strategy, it's something else.

这并不是真正的策略，而是别的东西。

Lenny: Awesome.

莱尼：太棒了。

Okay.

好的。

Is there an example that you could give that makes these even more concrete of just, I don't know, something that comes to mind that's a quick example of a strategy that illustrates these three components?

您是否可以举一个例子，让这些变得更加具体，我不知道，我想到的是一个说明这三个组成部分的策略的快速示例？

Richard Rumelt: If you're Microsoft right now and you're trying to adapt to AI, you have a diagnosis.

Richard Rumelt：如果你现在是微软并且你正在努力适应人工智能，那么你就有了一个诊断。

Well, what's going on?

嗯，发生了什么事？

You see the challenge of how do we adapt to it?

您看到我们如何适应它的挑战了吗？

You create a guiding policy that you're going to invest in one of the major leaders and that you're going to begin to incorporate that into your search engine.

您制定了一项指导政策，您将投资于一位主要领导者，并且您将开始将其纳入您的搜索引擎中。

And then you have coherent actions.

然后你就会采取连贯的行动。

You actually do some of these things.

你实际上做了其中一些事情。

It's not rocket science.

这不是火箭科学。

The difficulty is that companies don't do that.

困难在于公司不这样做。

Richard Rumelt: There are companies that say, "Well, our future is"...

理查德·鲁梅尔特：有些公司说，“嗯，我们的未来是”......

let's say something that's not in a software business.

让我们说一些不属于软件行业的事情。

That's industry 4.0 for 5.0 that we're going to have...

这就是我们将要实现的 5.0 的工业 4.0...

we're investing in the future of robotics and AI and even computer vision and all that.

我们正在投资机器人和人工智能的未来，甚至计算机视觉等等。

That's going to be our future.

那将是我们的未来。

And then you see what they're doing.

然后你就会看到他们在做什么。

They've bought this company, they've bought this company, they've bought this company, and that's it.

他们买了这家公司，他们买了这家公司，他们买了这家公司，仅此而已。

It's strategic assembly without any synthesis.

这是没有任何综合的战略组装。

So strategy's not mysterious.

所以策略并不神秘。

What's mysterious to me, what was mysterious to me and what remains mysterious to me is how so many organizational leaders don't do it.

对我来说很神秘，对我来说很神秘，对我来说仍然很神秘的是为什么这么多的组织领导者不这样做。

They create bad strategy.

他们制定了糟糕的策略。

They do something that they say is strategy and then it's not.

他们做了一些自称是战略的事情，但实际上却不是。

Lenny: You have a whole chapter on this, on what is a bad strategy.

莱尼：你用了一整章的篇幅来讨论这个问题，讨论什么是糟糕的策略。

Can we just touch on a few of the things you see as signs that your strategy is bad or maybe it doesn't even exist?

我们能否谈谈您认为表明您的策略很糟糕或者甚至根本不存在的一些迹象？

Richard Rumelt: Sure.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：当然。

When I wrote Good Strategy Bad Strategy, a lot of people resonated with the bad strategy.

当我写《好策略坏策略》时，很多人都对坏策略产生了共鸣。

Part of the book, they wrote emails and saying, "Oh my God, thank goodness someone just finally said that these long and terminal meetings I sit through are not actually strategy." Or these documents that the company produces are not actually strategy.

在这本书的一部分中，他们写了电子邮件说：“天啊，谢天谢地，终于有人说，我参加的这些漫长而最终的会议实际上并不是战略。”或者公司制定的这些文件实际上并不是战略。

And they're not.

但他们不是。

Bad strategy, the standard bad strategy for a corporation is a set of profit goals or performance goals.

糟糕的战略，公司标准的糟糕战略是一套利润目标或绩效目标。

A set of goals.

一组目标。

Goals are the engineering of how companies work to some extent.

目标是公司在某种程度上如何运作的工程。

But abstract, high-level goals, they're not strategy, they're something else.

但抽象的、高层次的目标，它们不是战略，而是别的东西。

They're ambitions.

他们是野心。

And ambitions are not a strategy.

野心并不是一种战略。

A list of all the different things you wish would happen is not strategy.

列出你希望发生的所有不同事情并不是策略。

Richard Rumelt: I was asked to help part of the U.S. Department of Defense create a strategy for what's 17 different intelligence agencies.

Richard Rumelt：我被要求帮助美国国防部的部分部门为 17 个不同的情报机构制定战略。

Richard Rumelt: Yeah.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：是的。

There's 17 different intelligence agencies.

有 17 个不同的情报机构。

And the strategy basically that these people had written said the 17 agencies should work together more effectively.

这些人写的战略基本上是说 17 个机构应该更有效地合作。

Now, you don't have to be a Russian spy to see that what they're really saying is these guys aren't working together effectively and it's a problem.

现在，你不必是俄罗斯间谍也能看出他们真正想说的是这些人没有有效地合作，这是一个问题。

But they didn't say that.

但他们没有这么说。

They said the strategy is they're going to work together more effectively.

他们表示，他们的策略是更有效地合作。

Just like the RV always comes out with our strategy is join us, meaning we're having trouble with coordinating.

就像房车总是提出我们的策略是加入我们一样，这意味着我们在协调方面遇到了麻烦。

Richard Rumelt: But then there's nothing there about that other than this is what should happen, there should be more effective coordination.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：但是除了应该发生的事情之外，没有什么其他的了，应该有更有效的协调。

And oh, we'll have an office of coordination, put a person in charge of coordination.

还有哦,我们会有一个协调办公室,安排一个人负责协调。

But there's no sensible...

但没有任何理智...

why is it hard to coordinate?

为什么很难协调？

What are the barriers to this?

这样做的障碍是什么？

This has been going on for 34 years now.

这种情况已经持续了34年。

What's holding it back?

是什么阻碍了它？

What is a problem we have to solve?

我们要解决的问题是什么？

It's not there.

它不在那里。

Richard Rumelt: So I was hired to do a foundry for a company and they said, "Well, our diagnosis is not growing fast enough." Okay, let's get into that because that's not a diagnosis, that's a statement.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：所以我被聘请为一家公司做铸造厂，他们说，“嗯，我们的诊断增长不够快。”好吧，让我们开始讨论这个问题，因为这不是诊断，而是陈述。

It's a statement of value, you would like to grow faster than you are.

这是一种价值宣言，你希望比现在成长得更快。

I'd like to be taller than I am.

我想长得比我高。

I'd like to have more hair.

我想要有更多的头发。

You want to grow faster.

你想成长得更快。

Okay, so what's holding you back?

好吧，那是什么阻碍了你呢？

And from .

并从 .

But saying, okay, we're going to grow, that's not a strategy.

但说，好吧，我们要成长，这不是一个策略。

Richard Rumelt: Bad strategy also is fluff.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：糟糕的策略也是无用的。

People will use fancy words to describe their situation.

人们会用花哨的词语来描述他们的处境。

Since I wrote that, the term word salad has become common.

自从我写下这篇文章以来，“沙拉”这个词就变得很常见了。

And there's a lot of word salad writing that people try to use to describe their situation.

人们试图用很多沙拉文字来描述他们的处境。

It sounds more abstract perhaps more abstract.

听起来更抽象也许更抽象。

Therefore, it's more strategic, incoherent stuff where we're going to do A, and we're going to B and those two things obviously fight one another.

因此，这是更具战略性、不连贯的事情，我们要做A，而我们要做B，这两件事显然是相互矛盾的。

All those things are part of bad strategy.

所有这些都是糟糕策略的一部分。

Bad strategy is a document or a set of intentions or a set of verbalizations where it's not a strategy.

糟糕的策略是一份文件、一组意图或一组言语，但它不是策略。

There's no diagnosis.

没有诊断。

Of course, I don't doubt that.

当然，我对此并不怀疑。

Started out saying where United States is falling behind in education.

首先说美国在教育方面落后的地方。

And he's looking at the piece of the PISA test scores of 15 year olds around the world.

他正在查看世界各地 15 岁学生的 PISA 测试成绩。

And it's true, the United States is down, number of 30 countries in terms of the scores of our 15-year-old, in math and in general knowledge.

确实，就我们 15 岁孩子的数学和常识成绩而言，美国落后于 30 个国家。

Okay, correct statement, we're falling behind.

好吧，正确的说法，我们落后了。

A real diagnosis would say, because.

真正的诊断会说，因为。

We jumped immediately to therefore, we're going to have more people go to college than any other country.

因此，我们立即意识到，我们将比任何其他国家有更多的人上大学。

Well, having more people go to college doesn't solve the problem of 15 year olds not being able to do elementary math.

嗯，让更多的人上大学并不能解决 15 岁的人不会基础数学的问题。

Hopefully it doesn't screw up colleges everywhere.

希望它不会搞砸各地的大学。

So that kind of gap, it's there, where you don't do the diagnosis.

因此，这种差距就在那里，你无法进行诊断。

Why do we have this?

为什么我们有这个？

We argue over diagnosis as part of politics and part of organizational politics.

我们争论诊断是政治和组织政治的一部分。

That's what we do, and that's important.

这就是我们所做的，这很重要。

To do a strategy, you have to resolve the argument.

要制定策略，您必须解决争论。

Why do we have a homeless explosion in Portland or Seattle or Los Angeles?

为什么波特兰、西雅图或洛杉矶的无家可归者数量激增？

And people argue about that.

人们对此争论不休。

Some people say, "Oh, strokes." Some people say, "Oh no, housing is too expensive." There are different diagnosis.

有人说：哦，中风。有人说：“哦不，房价太贵了。”有不同的诊断。

But to deal with the issue, you have to decide on the diagnosis.

但要解决这个问题，您必须做出诊断。

The politicians right now sort of decided for a few years that the problem is housing's too expensive, we're going to build housing at $700,000 a unit and give it to the all people.

几年来，政治家们一直认为问题是住房太贵，我们将以每套 70 万美元的价格建造住房，并将其提供给所有人。

Okay.

好的。

If you build it, they will come.

如果你建造它，他们就会来。

Richard Rumelt: But then the next problem is, well, can't seem to build a housing.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：但接下来的问题是，似乎无法建造住房。

And so again, you need a new diagnosis.

同样，您需要新的诊断。

Why can't you build a housing?

为什么不能建住房？

You're a rich, powerful country.

你们是一个富裕、强大的国家。

Why can't you build some housing?

为什么你不能建造一些住房？

So diagnosis is critical to understanding it.

因此，诊断对于理解它至关重要。

And in public policy, we argue over the diagnosis.

在公共政策方面，我们对诊断进行争论。

And in organizations we argue.

在组织中我们争论。

And unless you resolve it, you can't act.

除非你解决它，否则你无法采取行动。

So lacking diagnosis is one of the key reasons for bad strategy.

因此，缺乏诊断是糟糕策略的关键原因之一。

The other, the fluff and the incoherent actions are fun to describe, but they're less common.

另一种是毛茸茸的和不连贯的动作，描述起来很有趣，但不太常见。

The second major source of bad strategy is mistaking goals for strategy, saying these goals are our strategy.

糟糕战略的第二个主要根源是将目标误认为是战略，认为这些目标就是我们的战略。

And that leaves out so many of the important aspects.

这就遗漏了许多重要的方面。

Lenny: Amazing.

莱尼：太棒了。

So just to summarize somewhat, if you're missing a diagnosis, trying to explain what exactly is wrong, it's a sign your strategy is incomplete or bad.

总而言之，如果您错过了诊断，试图解释到底出了什么问题，则表明您的策略不完整或错误。

If you're missing concrete actions, it's a sign that your strategy is incomplete or bad.

如果您缺少具体行动，则表明您的策略不完整或糟糕。

There's also I think an element of coherence.

我认为还有一个连贯性的因素。

The actions have to connect and there have to be a few, very few of them.

这些动作必须相互关联，而且动作必须很少，而且数量必须很少。

I always like to think of three as a good number.

我总是认为三是一个好数字。

Is that something you think about, the rule of thirds for actions you want to take or even the guiding policy, or is there a number that you think about just like no more than this?

这是您考虑的事情吗？您想要采取的行动的三分法则，甚至是指导政策，还是您考虑的只是这个数字？

Richard Rumelt: A few.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：有一些。

A few.

几个。

Not too many.

不是太多。

Not 17.

不是17。

It's hard.

这很难。

Numbers.

数字。

We work best when we concentrate.

当我们集中注意力时，我们会工作得最好。

We're more effective when we concentrate on a few things, a few people, a few...

当我们专注于几件事、几个人、几个人时，我们会更有效率……

focus, it's the fundamental source of power and strategy.

专注，是力量和战略的根本源泉。

Trying to do too many different things is defocusing.

尝试做太多不同的事情会分散注意力。

Lenny: I think there's this quote in your book that I think is, and this may be paraphrasing, each time you say yes, you risk turning a nascent good strategy into a bad strategy.

莱尼：我认为你的书中有这样一句话，这可能是释义，每次你说“是”，你就有可能把一个新生的好策略变成一个坏策略。

Richard Rumelt: Yes.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：是的。

Focus is...

重点是...

when I was nine years old, I was at summer camp and I had my parents sent me a magnifying glass and I was out there using the sun to try to cook a piece of wood.

当我九岁的时候，我在夏令营，我让父母给我寄了一个放大镜，我在外面利用太阳尝试煮一块木头。

I think I had a piece of cloth that I was trying to burn, wasn't having much luck.

我想我有一块布想烧掉，但运气不太好。

The magnifying glass focuses the sun's rays on the spot.

放大镜将太阳光线聚焦在该点上。

Counselor came over and he said, "Try this," and he pulled out a black thread from his T-shirt, put it down.

辅导员走过来，说：“试试这个。”然后他从 T 恤上抽出一根黑线，把它放下。

And I focused the sun's rays hard, popped out.

我用力聚焦太阳光线，突然出现了。

So stupid little story.

这么愚蠢的小故事。

But to burn that black thread, there has to be a source of power, the sun.

但要燃烧那根黑线，必须有一个能量来源，那就是太阳。

There has to be a focus, that's the magnifying that to the power.

必须有一个焦点，那就是放大力量。

And it has to be a target that can be affected.

而且它必须是一个可以受到影响的目标。

It has to be a black thread, not white thread.

它必须是黑线，而不是白线。

And that sequence is part of strategic action.

这个顺序是战略行动的一部分。

You need a source of power.

你需要一个力量的来源。

I say power, I don't say advantage or efficiency.

我说的是力量，而不是优势或效率。

Richard Rumelt: I say power because there are different ways in which power is exhibited and you have to focus the power on a target that can actually be affected or achieved.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：我说权力是因为权力的表现方式有多种，你必须将权力集中在一个可以实际影响或实现的目标上。

And this is real simple logic, but it's a discipline to focus power on a target that you can affect.

这是非常简单的逻辑，但它是一种将权力集中在你可以影响的目标上的纪律。

Take American power and say we're going to change China's trajectory and Russia's trajectory and our own and to name all the 30 countries around the world that we're trying...

以美国的力量为例，我们将改变中国、俄罗斯和我们自己的发展轨迹，并列出我们正在努力的世界上所有 30 个国家的名字……

we're diffusing our efforts because they're not the same.

我们正在分散我们的努力，因为它们不一样。

They're going in different directions.

他们正走向不同的方向。

Obvious when you say it, not so obvious as you live it, because like any organization, like any big organization, US government has different interests.

当你说出来时很明显，但并不像你生活中那么明显，因为像任何组织，像任何大组织一样，美国政府有不同的利益。

They're pursuing different interests funded for different purposes with different clientele.

他们追求不同的利益，为不同的目的和不同的客户提供资金。

And so there's gradually a diffusion-

于是逐渐扩散——

Richard Rumelt: And so there's gradually a diffusion of effort.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：因此，努力逐渐分散。

One of the big issues in strategy is simply the organization, complex organizations particularly.

战略中的重大问题之一就是组织，尤其是复杂的组织。

You have a hard time focusing energy because of all the different interests.

由于兴趣各异，你很难集中精力。

Lenny: Yeah.

莱尼：是的。

Actually I want to talk about both those things, so I'm glad that you teed them up.

事实上我想谈谈这两件事，所以我很高兴你把它们做好了。

Let's talk about power.

我们来谈谈权力。

What is this idea of power and how does that play into strategy?

权力的概念是什么？它如何影响战略？

Why is it so important?

为什么它如此重要？

And then what are some examples of power that people can think about when they're trying to think about implementing and adding a power to their strategy?

那么，当人们试图考虑实施战略并为其增添力量时，可以考虑哪些力量的例子？

Richard Rumelt: Well, in a competitive situation, the fundamental aspect of power is something that's going to give you some sort of advantage.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：嗯，在竞争的情况下，权力的基本方面是会给你带来某种优势。

Usually it's in asymmetry of some kind.

通常它是某种不对称的。

If two fighters are equally balanced or two horses are equally fetched or two armies are equally...

如果两个战士相等，或者两匹马相等，或者两支军队相等……

And they meet in competition, it's 50/50.

他们在比赛中相遇，比分是50/50。

Who knows what will happen.

谁知道会发生什么。

For a strategy you need to exploit in asymmetry of some kind.

对于策略，您需要利用某种不对称性。

You hear a little faster.

你听得快一点。

Or they're a little...

或者说他们有点...

Something has to be different between now and between things.

现在和事物之间一定有一些不同。

So that's the beginning of power, is asymmetry.

所以这就是权力的开始，就是不对称。

We can think of it as leverage, but sometimes think first is a source of power.

我们可以将其视为杠杆，但有时首先想到的是力量的来源。

Richard Rumelt: Being first to recognize something can be a source of power.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：第一个认识到某件事可能是力量的源泉。

Having a reputation of a certain kind gives you some power that someone doesn't have that reputation doesn't have.

拥有某种声誉会给你带来一些权力，而没有这种声誉的人则没有这种权力。

On the other hand, having a well-established reputation of a certain type can be the opposite of power because people don't expect you to be able to do something new.

另一方面，拥有某种类型的良好声誉可能与权力相反，因为人们不期望你能够做新的事情。

They expect you to be able to do this, but not that.

他们希望你能够做到这一点，但不能做到那样。

Having relationships can be a source of power.

拥有关系可以成为力量的源泉。

When Gerstner took over IBM as it was failing in the face of the microprocessor revolution, he recognized that their primary asset, their source of power, was that they were respected and they had into every large corporation on the planet.

当格斯特纳接手 IBM 时，因为它在微处理器革命中失败了，他认识到他们的主要资产、他们的力量源泉是他们受到尊重，并且他们已经进入了地球上的每一家大公司。

Nobody else had that as an actual producing company.

作为一家真正的生产公司，没有其他人拥有这样的能力。

And so he said, we're going to embrace our customers.

所以他说，我们将拥抱我们的客户。

Bear hug our customers.

拥抱我们的顾客。

We're going to serve our customers.

我们将为我们的客户提供服务。

Richard Rumelt: That's our source of our power.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：这是我们力量的源泉。

That's our leverage.

这就是我们的杠杆。

That's the synergy.

这就是协同作用。

Now the world begins to change and computing begins to move to the cloud.

现在世界开始发生变化，计算开始迁移到云端。

And IBM's customers, the largest companies in the world, are the most hesitant to do that, because they've got the big IT departments that don't want move to cloud.

IBM 的客户（世界上最大的公司）对此最为犹豫，因为他们的大型 IT 部门不想迁移到云。

And so small companies move to the cloud and the big companies are, well, it's insecure in the cloud.

因此，小公司迁移到云中，而大公司则认为，云中的安全是不安全的。

We'd have to lay off people.

我们不得不裁员。

We have these big machines we like to run.

我们有这些我们喜欢运行的大型机器。

Richard Rumelt: And so IBM then becomes disadvantaged in the new world because it inherits this big company orientation and that lagging behind.

Richard Rumelt：因此，IBM 在新世界中处于不利地位，因为它继承了大公司的定位，但又落后了。

So the opposite side of power is what you inherit.

所以权力的反面就是你继承的东西。

From can be the wrong thing.

来自可能是错误的事情。

But a source of power is that.

但力量的源泉就是这样。

A source of power can be an invention, a source of power can be a particular customer base that you have identified.

权力的来源可以是一项发明，权力的来源可以是您已确定的特定客户群。

It doesn't last forever, power, but all the different sources of advantage that are sometimes transitory and sometimes permanent are sources of power that a company has to use to compete and survive.

权力不会永远持续下去，但所有不同的优势来源（有时是短暂的，有时是永久的）都是公司必须用来竞争和生存的权力来源。

Lenny: I imagine people listening are just like, oh man, I got to figure out the power, the advantage that I have with my business.

莱尼：我想听的人都会说，天哪，我必须弄清楚我的业务的力量和优势。

Is there any advice you could share about helping people figure out where their power might lie?

关于帮助人们弄清楚他们的力量可能在哪里，你有什么建议可以分享吗？

Richard Rumelt: That's a good question, Lenny.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：这是一个很好的问题，莱尼。

So how do you figure it out?

那么你如何弄清楚呢？

So I start, as I said earlier, with the symmetries.

所以，正如我之前所说，我从对称性开始。

In what way is my company different than other companies?

我的公司与其他公司有何不同？

In what way is my team different?

我的团队有何不同？

What do we know that other people don't know?

什么是我们知道而其他人不知道的？

What do we possess that other people don't possess?

我们拥有哪些别人没有的东西？

So there has to be some asymmetry to create competitive power, there has to be something different.

因此，必须有一些不对称性才能创造竞争力，必须有一些不同的东西。

Richard Rumelt: Sometimes you have to redefine your space down small amount.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：有时你必须稍微重新定义你的空间。

Then you can actually see it, particularly a smaller company that doesn't have worldwide power, has power in a certain marketplace or a certain set of customers or sometimes it's not customers.

然后你就可以真正看到它，特别是一家没有全球影响力的小公司，在某个市场或一组特定客户中拥有影响力，或者有时不是客户。

Sometimes the power isn't who you can bring in and hire.

有时，权力并不在于你可以引进和雇用的人。

So if you invented ChatGPT, you can bring in the smartest AI people for a year or two because all the smart AI people want to work at the cutting edge with the current winner.

因此，如果你发明了 ChatGPT，你可以引进最聪明的 AI 人员一两年，因为所有聪明的 AI 人员都希望与当前的获胜者一起在最前沿工作。

Richard Rumelt: Then they'll start to arguing with each other and in fight and there'll be all sorts of embarrassing personnel things going on and someone else can grab that position, if it's not well managed.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：然后他们会开始互相争吵和打架，并且会发生各种令人尴尬的人事事情，如果管理不善，其他人可能会抢占这个位置。

Business is exciting in that sense that it's not stable.

从这个意义上说，商业是令人兴奋的，但它并不稳定。

It's not just as it was when I was first studying it.

这不只是我刚开始学习时的情况。

It's not just IBM and Sears and AT&T forever.

永远不仅仅是IBM、Sears 和AT&T。

There's a constant changing of the guard.

守卫不断地换岗。

Richard Rumelt: For better.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：为了更好。

Because if you look at government, there is no changing of the guard and they get stultified.

因为如果你看看政府，就会发现卫兵没有换岗，他们会变得愚蠢。

Lenny: Makes sense.

莱尼：有道理。

So in your book, you have this whole list of types of power.

所以在你的书中，你列出了权力类型的完整列表。

I'll just read them real quick.

我会快速阅读它们。

Leverage, proximate, objectives, chain link systems, design, focus, growth, advantages, dynamics, inertia, entropy.

杠杆、近似、目标、链环系统、设计、焦点、增长、优势、动力、惯性、熵。

There's also the book, obviously The Seven Powers, that a lot of people are aware of.

还有一本书，显然是很多人都知道的《七种力量》。

I guess how do you think about just the spectrum of types of power you can have?

我猜你如何看待你可以拥有的权力类型？

Is this it?

是这个吗？

Are there others?

还有其他人吗？

Richard Rumelt: I started to make a list there in the book and I wrote up a bit about chain link systems and today, I mean the power that new business models are exploiting is the power of the user base.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：我开始在书中列出一个清单，并写了一些有关链式链接系统的内容，今天，我的意思是新商业模式正在利用的力量是用户群的力量。

What we called years ago, network effects, where the more users you have, the more useful a product is.

多年前我们称之为网络效应，即拥有的用户越多，产品就越有用。

So I think the idea of network effects first arose with the telehealth system, which the idea was that you don't want to be connected to a telephone system that only connects to two other people.

因此，我认为网络效应的想法首先出现在远程医疗系统中，该系统的想法是您不想连接到仅连接到另外两个人的电话系统。

It's not all that useful.

这并不是那么有用。

It's got to connect to the world to be useful.

它必须与世界相连才能发挥作用。

Richard Rumelt: And my colleague Marvin Lieberman was taking the economics course at Harvard University at the same time that Bill Gates was a student in that classroom.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：我的同事马文·利伯曼正在哈佛大学学习经济学课程，而比尔·盖茨也是该教室的学生。

Professor's going on about network effects and of course that's what catapulted him, had his software, MS DOS at the time.

教授正在谈论网络效应，当然这就是他的动力所在，当时他有他的软件 MS DOS。

Not MS DOS, he had something called basic that...

不是 MS DOS，他有一个叫做 basic 的东西......

The network effect was huge.

网络效应是巨大的。

He got angry about the network effect because people wouldn't pay him.

他对网络效应感到愤怒，因为人们不付钱给他。

They kept stealing it and using it and pretty soon everybody in the microcomputer industry had M Basic.

他们不断地窃取并使用它，很快微型计算机行业的每个人都拥有了 M Basic。

Richard Rumelt: Then we get the network effects from not just software, but user base is now with the internet and so you get network effects with big social media.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：那么我们不仅从软件中获得网络效应，而且现在的用户群也来自互联网，因此您可以通过大型社交媒体获得网络效应。

No one wants to be on a social media if only three other people are on.

如果只有另外三个人在社交媒体上，没有人愿意使用社交媒体。

So having a large network...

那么拥有一个庞大的网络...

Richard Rumelt: Amazon.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：亚马逊。

Get big fast because the economics are amazing.

快速做大，因为经济效益惊人。

So we used to say, well, in a department store, economics are that you're saving people the cost of going out of the store and walking down the street to another store.

所以我们过去常说，在百货商店，经济学就是为人们节省走出商店并沿着街道走到另一家商店的成本。

So now it's all in one place.

所以现在一切都集中在一处。

Supermarkets, the same thing.

超市也一样。

But look at a thing like Amazon where there the ease of shopping on Amazon keeps people from leaving it and going to another website.

但看看像亚马逊这样的网站，在亚马逊上购物的便捷性使人们不会离开它并前往另一个网站。

Now other websites have gotten better and better and some of that is less strong than it used to be and this is a constant struggle with it.

现在其他网站已经变得越来越好，但其中一些网站的强度不如以前，这是一个持续不断的斗争。

Nevertheless, the size of the user bench there is an important source of a symmetry and power for the people that have come out ahead and won that battle for this round, this five years to 10 years.

尽管如此，对于那些在这一轮（这五年到十年）中脱颖而出并赢得这场战斗的人来说，用户席的规模是对称性和权力的重要来源。

How long does it last before some other thing begins to take precedent.

在其他事情开始占据先例之前要持续多久。

And now we have two-sided markets, whether it's credit cards or places where both buyers and sellers get together.

现在我们有双边市场，无论是信用卡还是买家和卖家聚集的地方。

Richard Rumelt: And so here these big forces that companies are playing with right now are these network effects.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：公司现在正在利用的这些巨大力量就是网络效应。

Richard Rumelt: And when the new generative AI, we have the possibility of stronger effects than we've ever seen before, but we don't know yet.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：当新的生成式人工智能出现时，我们有可能产生比我们以前见过的更强大的影响，但我们还不知道。

But the suspicion is that size is what matters, that the size of the data that you could put into the learning algorithm is going to make your AI better.

但人们怀疑，规模才是最重要的，你可以放入学习算法中的数据规模会让你的人工智能变得更好。

And so again, a big...

如此一来，一个大...

It's going to matter.

这很重要。

Richard Rumelt: Just think of Google and their ability to improve search based upon all the searches that go on on their base every day.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：想想谷歌以及他们根据每天在其基地进行的所有搜索来改进搜索的能力。

It's very hard for Bing to catch up because Bing doesn't have as much data to train on.

Bing 很难迎头赶上，因为 Bing 没有那么多数据可供训练。

And so unless there's some new innovation there that isn't just the amount of data, the leader again has this asymmetry working for it.

因此，除非有一些新的创新，而不仅仅是数据量，否则领导者会再次利用这种不对称性。

Now, the way you get around all that is by being specialized, by owning a particular approach that isn't the market leader's approach.

现在，解决这一切的方法是通过专业化，通过拥有一种不是市场领导者的方法的特定方法。

And it's always been that way in business, but our attention is often attracted by these giants.

商业上一直都是这样，但我们的注意力常常被这些巨头所吸引。

Richard Rumelt: So yeah, sources of power today where we look at the new business models that are part of the fabric are these network effects and things like that that are very, very strong.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：是的，今天我们所关注的新商业模式的力量来源是这些网络效应和类似的东西，它们是非常非常强大的。

And people are trying to get those in startups and in small firms within a certain market space and build it as fast as possible to get ahead of others.

人们正试图让初创公司和小公司在一定的市场空间内获得这些，并尽快建立它以领先于其他人。

There's been venture capital available to try those experiments and some of them work and some of them don't, but that's this new age we're in now, where the speed of building a market position with network effects is a dominant game in the tech space.

已经有风险资本可以尝试这些实验，其中一些有效，有些则无效，但这是我们现在所处的新时代，利用网络效应建立市场地位的速度是科技领域的主导游戏。

Lenny: I feel like Twitter is the ultimate example of the power of network effects, especially recently where if you think about it, everything about Twitter has changed and it still continues to run.

莱尼：我觉得 Twitter 是网络效应力量的终极例子，尤其是最近，如果你仔细想想，关于 Twitter 的一切都发生了变化，但它仍然在继续运行。

You laid off 80% of people at the company, they changed the name, they changed the domain basically, the algorithms changed.

你解雇了公司 80% 的员工，他们改变了名字，他们基本上改变了域名，算法也改变了。

I don't know what is still the same.

我不知道什么还是一样。

Richard Rumelt: How can you lay off 80% of the people and it still runs?

Richard Rumelt：你怎么能解雇 80% 的员工而公司仍然运转呢？

I mean you got to wonder.

我的意思是你一定想知道。

Lenny: I love Twitter.

莱尼：我喜欢推特。

I'm on there all the time.

我一直在那儿。

I feel like it's never been better, which is kind of wild.

我感觉从来没有这么好过，这有点疯狂。

Richard Rumelt: Twitter's fascinating.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：Twitter 很有趣。

I mean I tune into it every couple of days and see what's going on and it is just an amazing rumble of opinions and statements.

我的意思是，我每隔几天就会收听一次，看看发生了什么，这只是令人惊叹的观点和声明。

It's much more interesting than it was five years ago.

这比五年前有趣多了。

Lenny: There's a lot of diagnosing and not a lot of concrete actions.

莱尼：有很多诊断，但没有很多具体行动。

But anyway, I wanted to come back to the element about power.

但无论如何，我想回到关于权力的话题。

I think when people are thinking about power, it may not be clear where that plugs into the diagnosis, the guiding policy and the coherent actions.

我认为，当人们思考权力时，可能并不清楚权力在诊断、指导政策和连贯行动中的作用。

Where should you be thinking and implementing this idea of where my power is when you're laying out your strategy?

当你制定策略时，你应该在哪里思考和实施“我的力量在哪里”这一想法？

Richard Rumelt: To undertake a strategy that you think will work, you've got to have a reason that it makes sense and that reason is derived from some source of power, some source of advantage.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：要采取你认为可行的策略，你必须有一个合理的理由，而这个理由源自某种权力来源、某种优势来源。

Ultimately, your power or your advantage is something based in history that has the feel of reputation, or institutional skill, or it's some kind of symmetry or knowledge that you have that others don't have.

最终，你的权力或你的优势是基于历史的东西，具有声誉或机构技能的感觉，或者是你拥有别人没有的某种对称性或知识。

So it's a resource that you can use that your competitors or others don't have equal access to because you've either have mastered it or you own it or you inherited from the past.

因此，这是一种您可以使用的资源，而您的竞争对手或其他人无法平等访问它，因为您要么已经掌握了它，要么您拥有它，要么您从过去继承了它。

Richard Rumelt: All those things are sources of the power that you use to make it not an even bet.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：所有这些都是你用来让赌局变得不公平的力量的来源。

So when you walk into a casino, well maybe if you play poker with skill, you can expect to make some money, but the general casino games, you're going to expect to lose.

因此，当您走进赌场时，如果您玩扑克有技巧，也许您可​​以期望赚一些钱，但一般的赌场游戏，您可能会输。

And in business, statistically, if you come to me and you say, I'm going to open a new restaurant.

从统计数据来看，在商业领域，如果你来找我说，我要开一家新餐厅。

What should my strategy be?

我的策略应该是什么？

My answer would be don't open a restaurant.

我的答案是不要开餐馆。

Invest in the S&P 500 because the statistics are that new restaurants fail.

投资标准普尔 500 指数，因为统计数据表明新餐厅会倒闭。

So what makes you think that you can succeed?

那么是什么让您认为自己能够成功呢？

Oh, I really want to succeed.

哦，我真的很想成功。

Not good enough.

还不够好。

I trained under a chef who's been very successful.

我在一位非常成功的厨师手下接受过培训。

Oh, that's interesting.

哦，这很有趣。

Tell me more.

告诉我更多。

Richard Rumelt: So there, where's the asymmetry here?

理查德·鲁梅尔特：那么，这里的不对称性在哪里？

Where's the source of power where you go from the odds...

你摆脱困境的力量源泉在哪里......

The standard odds in this game are against people where you think the odds are in your favor.

本游戏的标准赔率是针对您认为赔率对您有利的人。

Richard Rumelt: That's the source of power we're looking for.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：这就是我们正在寻找的力量源泉。

We're looking for this information, this skill, this thing in the field, the way the resources are arranged, that's going to give you this edge.

我们正在寻找这个信息、这个技能、这个领域的东西、资源的安排方式，这会给你带来这种优势。

And some of that is sort of part of the situation and some of it's how you shape and focus your actions.

其中一些是情况的一部分，另一些是你如何塑造和集中你的行动。

Strategy tends to be surprising when we see it, when we see it work, and surprising because we don't expect it.

当我们看到战略、看到它发挥作用时，往往会感到惊讶，而令人惊讶是因为我们没有预料到它。

We expect people to bumble around.

我们希望人们会笨手笨脚地四处走动。

We expect Arby's to bumble around.

我们预计 Arby's 会笨手笨脚地四处走动。

We expect nation states to bumble around.

我们预计民族国家会跌跌撞撞。

We don't expect them to execute coherent strategies.

我们并不期望他们执行连贯的策略。

Richard Rumelt: The United States went to Afghanistan and it wanted to catch Osama bin Laden, but at the same time they didn't want to put an army in the shield to actually catch him because it would the embarrassing to have that many Americans in the field.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：美国前往阿富汗，想要抓捕奥萨马·本·拉登，但同时他们又不想派遣一支军队来真正抓捕他，因为有那么多美国人在战场上会很尴尬。

That's what happened in Tora Bora.

这就是托拉博拉岛发生的事情。

The Secretary of Defense said, no, we don't want to make it look like we're taking over the country, so they didn't try to catch him as hard as they could.

国防部长说，不，我们不想让事情看起来像是我们正在接管这个国家，所以他们没有尽力抓捕他。

Richard Rumelt: And we want to have the education of women and we want to have a democracy and we want to have a long list that we would have no opium production, but at the same time, our allies are the opiate producers.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：我们希望妇女接受教育，我们希望实行民主，我们希望列出一长串禁止鸦片生产的清单，但与此同时，我们的盟友是鸦片生产商。

It was the Taliban that got rid of opiate.

是塔利班废除了鸦片制剂。

Americans didn't do it.

美国人没有这样做。

Richard Rumelt: So we had all these different objectives.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：所以我们有所有这些不同的目标。

It doesn't work.

这不起作用。

You need to have a focus on something achievable.

您需要专注于可实现的事情。

What's achievable?

什么是可以实现的？

Nation-building is hard stuff.

国家建设是一件困难的事情。

It takes a century.

这需要一个世纪。

Afghanistan, I'm off on a tangent here with Afghanistan, but it's a really interesting subject.

阿富汗，我与阿富汗的话题有些偏离，但这是一个非常有趣的话题。

Afghanistan was a warlord society, a bunch of different warlords running the place.

阿富汗是一个军阀社会，一群不同的军阀统治着这个地方。

Well, what's a warlord society?

那么什么是军阀社会呢？

Where else do we look for an analogies?

我们还能在哪里寻找类比呢？

Well, we look at in 1650.

好吧，我们看看 1650 年。

You look at France in 1300.

你看看 1300 年的法国。

You can look at Japan before the modern era.

你可以看看近代之前的日本。

These are warlord societies.

这些都是军阀社会。

Well, how did they go from that to being a coherent government that maybe wasn't democratic at first, but still, there was a government instead of just as much war.

好吧，他们是如何从这个变成一个团结一致的政府，一开始可能并不民主，但仍然有一个政府，而不是同样多的战争。

It took some to conquer all the rest.

需要一些人才能征服其余的人。

Richard Rumelt: And then it took a long time for them to put in the structure itself of government and then maybe became a democracy.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：然后他们花了很长时间才建立政府结构本身，然后可能成为民主国家。

Maybe not, but that's the process.

也许不是，但这就是过程。

It's not like you just go in there and say, you're now no longer a warlord with society because we've decreed it.

这不像你只是走进去说，你现在不再是社会的军阀，因为我们已经颁布了法令。

Richard Rumelt: I don't know.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：我不知道。

You're going to ask me more questions about what it is people should know and how do you get these sources of power?

你会问我更多关于人们应该知道什么以及如何获得这些权力来源的问题？

How do you get these insights?

您如何获得这些见解？

I'm a big fan of history.

我是历史的忠实粉丝。

I'm a big fan of knowing things about what happened.

我非常想了解所发生的事情。

Business history, biographies, war history.

商业史、传记、战争史。

Richard Rumelt: If you don't have access to other times and other places and other things that have happened, it's very hard to think strategically about the situation you're in because there isn't a science of strategy.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：如果你无法了解其他时间、其他地点以及其他已发生的事情，就很难对你所处的情况进行战略性思考，因为不存在战略科学。

It's not like physics.

这不像物理学。

It's not like engineering where we can write down the equations of stress on a beam and say, how thick does the beam have to be?

这不像工程，我们可以写下梁上的应力方程并说，梁必须有多厚？

It's not like that.

事情不是那样的。

A lot of it is based on analogy to previous human experience.

其中很多都是基于对以前人类经验的类比。

Lenny: That is an amazing insight.

莱尼：这是一个令人惊奇的洞察力。

Is there anything you find most rich and valuable in terms of history periods, empires, stories that you find most connects as an analogy?

就历史时期、帝国、故事而言，您认为最丰富和最有价值的东西是您认为最有关联性的类比吗？

Is there anything you find consistently is useful or is it just read as much as you can and you'll often find something in there?

有没有什么东西是你一直觉得有用的，或者是只要你尽可能多地阅读，你就会经常在其中找到一些东西？

Richard Rumelt: Yeah, the further back we go in history, the leaner.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：是的，历史越悠久，就越精简。

It's less rich.

就是比较不富裕。

The best histories are written by the people at the moment it's happening or very soon after.

最好的历史是由事情发生时或发生后不久的人们书写的。

History books and things like that are someone's opinion.

历史书之类的东西是某人的观点。

But our own history here in the United States, we have pretty good documentation about what went on in the Indian War, why we had these big cycles of economic growth and then depression.

但我们在美国的历史，我们有很好的文献记录，关于印度战争中发生的事情，为什么我们会经历经济增长和萧条的大周期。

We had depressions in 1840 and after the Civil War and there was another huge panic depression in the 1890s.

1840 年和南北战争之后，我们经历了萧条，1890 年代又出现了一次巨大的恐慌性萧条。

.

。

A lot of people don't even know that these things happen.

很多人甚至不知道这些事情的发生。

How did they happen?

它们是怎么发生的？

And of course everybody knows about the Great Depression of 1929, 30's, but go back and how did that happen?

当然，每个人都知道 1929 年、20 世纪 30 年代的大萧条，但回顾一下，那是怎么发生的呢？

When did that happen?

那是什么时候发生的？

And you'll hear professors opine about why it happened, but there's no agreement.

你会听到教授们对为什么会发生这种情况发表意见，但没有达成一致。

The biggest economic fact of the last 150 years, you don't know why it happened.

过去150年来最大的经济事实，你不知道它为什么会发生。

Richard Rumelt: Go back and you can go online and look at the Wall Street Journal of the New York Times from that era and start in September of 1928 and just look at the front page every day, which I've done, and you can see it unfold and it's a surprise to everyone.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：回去吧，你可以上网看那个时代的《纽约时报》华尔街日报，从1928年9月开始，每天看头版，我就是这样做的，你可以看到它展开，这对每个人来说都是一个惊喜。

There goes, well, Ford just laid off the people, but it's temporary.

嗯，福特刚刚解雇了员工，但这只是暂时的。

They'll hire them back.

他们会重新雇用他们。

This economist says, well, it's a temporary this.

这位经济学家说，好吧，这只是暂时的。

It'll come back.

它会回来的。

And it gradually gets worse and worse and worse and there's no understanding of it.

情况逐渐变得越来越糟，越来越糟，而且没有人理解它。

There's not a lot of analysis.

没有太多分析。

And so you got Milton Friedman saying, oh, it's monetary.

所以米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）说，哦，这是货币问题。

They didn't loosen up the money supply.

他们没有放松货币供应量。

You got other people saying things.

你让其他人说了事。

But put yourself back at that moment in time and see what people saw and realize that no one understood what was happening and to form their own opinions.

但是，让自己回到那个时刻，看看人们所看到的，并意识到没有人理解正在发生的事情并形成自己的观点。

Richard Rumelt: That's the diagnosis skill or that's the feeling.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：这就是诊断技巧，或者就是感觉。

Now, let's suppose you fall off a boat.

现在，假设您从船上掉下来。

You're on a cruise ship and you fall and you're now in the ocean.

你在一艘游轮上，你摔倒了，现在你在海里。

It's terrifying and it's confusing and there's waves and there's water and I don't want to drown.

这很可怕，也很混乱，有海浪，有水，但我不想被淹死。

And you look around and you see, oh, here's a floating piece of wood.

你环顾四周，你会发现，哦，这是一块漂浮的木头。

Let me grab it.

让我抓住它。

Wow, that feels a lot better.

哇，感觉好多了。

That's how it feels when you look at a confusing situation and the first idea of how to understand it comes to mind.

这就是当你看到一个令人困惑的情况并想到如何理解它的第一个想法时的感觉。

Oh, yeah, I've got this piece of wood.

哦，是的，我有这块木头。

Now I'm not drowning.

现在我没有溺水。

But is it right?

但这是对的吗？

Richard Rumelt: The most important intellectual tool we have is to think again, to say, okay, I came up with this diagnosis because I thought this and I thought this.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：我们拥有的最重要的智力工具是再次思考，说，好吧，我做出这个诊断是因为我这么想，我这么想。

Is there another way to look at this situation?

是否有另一种方式来看待这种情况？

Is there a bigger piece of wood over there than I can grab onto?

那边有一块比我能抓到的更大的木头吗？

That's the hard thing.

这才是最困难的事情。

When I looked at the Great Depression what I saw is the .

当我观察大萧条时，我看到的是。

So if you look at capital goods, most capital goods that the public buys, the adoption curve goes up like this, it peaks, and it declines and then it comes back up again.

因此，如果你看看资本品，公众购买的大多数资本品，采用曲线会像这样上升，达到顶峰，然后下降，然后再次上升。

Because there comes a point where everybody who can afford one has got one, and then the new sales drop off.

因为到了某个时候，每个买得起的人都会拥有一台，然后新的销量就会下降。

And in my mind, that's what I saw.

在我看来，这就是我所看到的。

1929, everybody could afford a car, had a car, and the auto industry began...

1929年，每个人都买得起汽车，拥有汽车，汽车工业开始了……

First signs of the Great Depression were in the auto industry.

大萧条的第一个迹象出现在汽车行业。

Richard Rumelt: So that was my play that I read.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：这就是我读过的戏剧。

Now I don't see anybody else writing about that, but that's the exercise and to exercise your mind about trying to understand complex situations.

现在我没有看到其他人写过这方面的文章，但这就是练习，锻炼你的思维，试图理解复杂的情况。

It's best to go back.

最好还是回去吧。

You don't have to to the great Depression, but you can go and try and find situations that other people have to deal with and look at as much data as you can and to practice that.

你不必经历大萧条，但你可以去尝试找到其他人必须处理的情况，并尽可能多地查看数据并进行练习。

That's what education should be in a business school.

这就是商学院的教育应该有的样子。

It's not.

它不是。

They teach theories now because it's so much easier to teach a theory than intellectual structure.

他们现在教授理论，因为教授理论比教授知识结构容易得多。

Lenny: It's also a lot more work, reading a lot of books and history and studying and thinking.

莱尼：这还需要做很多工作，阅读大量书籍和历史，学习和思考。

Richard Rumelt: Oh, .

理查德·鲁梅尔特：哦，。

I had a colleague at UCLA who assigned a book to MBA students and they went to the dean and had him kicked out of the course because of a book.

我在加州大学洛杉矶分校有一位同事，他给 MBA 学生分配了一本书，他们去找院长，因为一本书而把他踢出了课程。

He wants us to read a book.

他想让我们读一本书。

Lenny: Oh man.

莱尼：天啊。

It sounds like you have another book in you writing about the Great Depression and what really happened there.

听起来你好像还有另一本书在写关于大萧条以及那里真实发生的事情。

Oh, man.

哦，伙计。

Exciting.: This episode is brought to you by Vanta, helping you streamline your security compliance to accelerate your growth.

令人兴奋。：本集由 Vanta 为您带来，帮助您简化安全合规性以加速您的成长。

Thousands of fast-growing companies like Gusto, Com, Quora and Modern Treasury, trust Vanta to help build, scale, manage, and demonstrate their security and compliance programs and get ready for audits in weeks, not months.

Gusto、Com、Quora 和 Modern Treasury 等数千家快速发展的公司信任 Vanta 帮助构建、扩展、管理和演示其安全与合规计划，并在数周（而不是数月）内为审核做好准备。

Oh, man.

哦，伙计。

Exciting.: By offering the most in-demand security and privacy frameworks such as SOC 2, ISO 27,001, GDPR, HIPAA, and many more, vanta helps companies obtain the reports they need to accelerate growth, build efficient compliance processes, mitigate risks to their businesses, and build trust with external stakeholders.

令人兴奋：通过提供最受欢迎的安全和隐私框架（例如 SOC 2、ISO 27,001、GDPR、HIPAA 等），vanta 帮助公司获取加速增长、构建高效合规流程、降低业务风险以及与外部利益相关者建立信任所需的报告。

Over 5,000 fast-growing companies use Vanta to automate up to 90% of the work involved with SOC 2 and these other frameworks.

超过 5,000 家快速发展的公司使用 Vanta 自动化 SOC 2 和其他框架所涉及的高达 90% 的工作。

For a limited time Lenny's podcast listeners get $1,000 off Vanta.

Lenny 的播客听众限时享受 Vanta 1,000 美元优惠。

Go to vanta.com/lenny, that's V-A-N-T-A dot com slash lenny to learn more and to claim your discounts.

请访问vanta.com/lenny（即 V-A-N-T-A . comlash lenny）了解更多信息并申请折扣。

Get started today.

今天就开始吧。

Oh, man.

哦，伙计。

Exciting.: I wanted to zoom back in on something very tactical.

令人兴奋。：我想回顾一些非常战术性的事情。

So say you're a product manager listening to this that has to write a strategy for their team.

假设您是一名产品经理，正在听这个，必须为他们的团队制定策略。

Say it's like they're working on the onboarding experience of their product and they're about to sit down and start to write out the strategy for their team.

假设他们正在研究产品的入职体验，然后他们将坐下来开始为团队制定策略。

And say they have a general idea of what they want to do.

并说他们对自己想做什么有一个大致的了解。

Do you have any advice for just how to lay out a strategy?

您对如何制定策略有什么建议吗？

As you talk I think of there's a section.

当你说话时，我想到有一个部分。

Diagnosis, a section.

诊断，一节。

Guiding principles, a section.

指导原则，一节。

Actions, and then there's power in there and the guiding policy.

有了行动，就有了力量和指导方针。

Is that how you lay it out?

你就是这样布置的吗？

Do you have any advice for how to write this out?

您对如何写出此内容有什么建议吗？

Richard Rumelt: I wrote the crutch because I felt that.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：我写拐杖是因为我有这种感觉。

Richard Rumelt: The Crux because I felt that that kernel was not sufficiently sharp enough for peak.

Richard Rumelt：症结所在，因为我觉得那个内核不够锋利，不足以达到峰值。

And even in The Crux, if I could rewrite The Crux book, I would, maybe, write it a little differently today, a whole couple of things I would change.

即使在《The Crux》中，如果我可以重写《The Crux》这本书，也许我今天会写得有点不同，我会改变很多事情。

First, it's really important to understand the challenge, the problem.

首先，了解挑战和问题非常重要。

Diagnosis is not merely understanding the world, it's understanding the challenge you face.

诊断不仅仅是了解世界，更是了解您面临的挑战。

What makes it hard?

是什么让事情变得困难？

So the question I ask client is exactly that.

所以我问客户的问题正是如此。

What makes it hard?

是什么让事情变得困难？

Client will tell me, "Oh, we want to open up business in Australia.

客户会告诉我，“哦，我们想在澳大利亚开展业务。

It's a market we haven't tapped." And I'll say, "Okay, so why are you and I talking about that?

这是我们尚未开发的市场。”我会说：“好吧，那么你和我为什么要谈论这个呢？

You're the CEO.

你是首席执行官。

Just tell somebody to do it.

只要告诉某人去做就可以了。

What makes it hard?" "Oh, well, we don't know anybody in Australia and they kicked us out." If you push, he'll tell you why it's hard.

是什么让事情变得困难？” “哦，好吧，我们在澳大利亚谁都不认识，他们把我们赶了出去。”如果你努力，他会告诉你为什么很难。

Richard Rumelt: But that understanding hasn't been percolated into a strategy.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：但是这种理解还没有渗透到战略中。

Part of the problem is that the concept of strategy has been so beaten up by thousands, hundreds of books, and thousands of more websites that people have a hard time trying to figure out how to create a strategy, because they're drawn up, down, left, right.

部分问题在于，战略的概念已经被数以千计的书籍和数以千计的网站所诟病，以至于人们很难弄清楚如何制定战略，因为战略是上、下、左、右制定的。

So my two pieces of advice, anybody that's actually trying to do this is, A, state the problem, and, B, don't call it a strategy, call it an action agenda, that you're not creating a strategy, you're creating an action agenda.

所以我的两条建议是，任何真正尝试这样做的人，A，陈述问题，B，不要称其为战略，而称其为行动议程，你不是在制定战略，而是在制定行动议程。

What are we going to do about this problem?

对于这个问题我们该怎么办呢？

That's essence of what you're doing.

这就是你正在做的事情的本质。

When you're thinking strategically, you're recognizing the problem and you have an action agenda to deal with it.

当你进行战略思考时，你就会认识到问题，并且有一个行动议程来处理它。

It's not five years out and 10 years out.

这不是五年后和十年后。

It's not your general mission to build a better world, it's none of that.

建设一个更美好的世界不是你的总体使命，什么都​​不是。

Richard Rumelt: All of that is a different literature form.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：所有这些都是不同的文学形式。

There's huge numbers of people out there willing to sell you advice on how your mission, and your vision, and your values, and all these things that have to be in place before you can have a strategy.

有很多人愿意向你推销关于如何实现你的使命、你的愿景、你的价值观以及所有这些在你制定战略之前必须到位的事情的建议。

And that's not true.

但这不是真的。

It's a different model.

这是一个不同的模型。

I start now with ambitions because people want to put ambitions in place.

我现在从雄心开始，因为人们希望将雄心付诸实践。

They get angry with me.

他们对我生气。

I don't allow them to talk about their ambitions.

我不允许他们谈论他们的野心。

So we start with ambitions, and okay, you have all these ambitions.

所以我们从雄心开始，好吧，你有所有这些雄心。

I write in The Crux that when I was 25, I wanted to be a top business school professor.

我在《The Crux》中写道，25 岁​​时，我想成为一名顶级商学院教授。

I wanted to be on Fortune directors.

我想成为《财富》杂志的董事。

I wanted to drive a Morgan Drophead Plus 4.

我想开一辆 Morgan Drophead Plus 4。

I wanted to climb the great mountains of the world.

我想攀登世界上最伟大的山脉。

I wanted to learn to fly an aircraft.

我想学习驾驶飞机。

I wanted to marry a beautiful woman and have successful children.

我想娶一个美丽的女人并拥有成功的孩子。

I wanted to have a townhouse on the of Paris.

我想在巴黎拥有一套联排别墅。

All and all, I had a lot of ambitions.

总而言之，我有很多野心。

Richard Rumelt: That's not strategy.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：这不是战略。

We all have ambitions, and every company should have ambitions.

我们都有抱负，每个公司都应该有抱负。

If we look at all those ambitions, and let's say I'm 25 years old, well, what's keeping me from reaching them all?

如果我们看看所有这些雄心壮志，假设我今年 25 岁，那么，是什么阻止我实现所有这些雄心壮志呢？

"Well, I'm not ready to join Fortune directors.

“好吧，我还没有准备好加入《财富》董事行列。

I'm not experienced enough." Okay, so I put that over here.

我经验还不够。”好的，所以我把它放在这里。

"I can't afford the pen." Okay, put it over here.

“我买不起笔。”好吧，把它放在这里。

"How about the ambitions that you have any chance of making progress?" So now, well, beautiful woman.

“那你的野心如何，有机会取得进步吗？”所以现在，好吧，美丽的女人。

"Yeah, I don't know any, maybe I ought to meet a few." "Well, you can do something about that."

“是啊，我一个也不认识，也许我应该认识几个。” “好吧，你可以做点什么。”

Richard Rumelt: So which of your ambitions can you begin to make progress towards reaching, and what's holding you back?

理查德·鲁梅尔特（Richard Rumelt）：那么您可以开始实现哪些雄心勃勃的目标，是什么阻碍了您的实现？

What are the barriers?

有何障碍？

What are the problems?

存在哪些问题？

So I approach the question of the problem now through the filter of the ambition, that these ambitions, fine, let's accept them all, and which one can you actually make some progress on today?

所以我现在通过野心的过滤来解决这个问题，这些野心，好吧，让我们全部接受，今天你实际上可以在哪一个上取得一些进展？

And what's making that hard?

是什么让这变得如此困难？

What are the challenges?

面临哪些挑战？

So you're choosing a challenge.

所以你选择了挑战。

You're choosing, of the possible challenges you could face up to, you can't do them all.

您正在选择可能面临的挑战，但您无法全部完成。

So there's a focus thing.

所以有一个重点。

You're choosing which challenge to focus on, and that challenge has to be, A, important, and, B, it has to be achievable.

你正在选择要关注的挑战，并且该挑战必须是，A，重要的，并且，B，它必须是可以实现的。

Richard Rumelt: It has to be something that you can address.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：这必须是你可以解决的问题。

It has to be an addressable challenge.

它必须是一个可以应对的挑战。

And so the search for an action agenda, I'm not calling it a strategy, is this balance between problems that are important because they're close to your ambition and problems that you can actually address and do something about.

因此，寻找行动议程，我不称其为战略，是重要的问题和你可以实际解决并采取行动的问题之间的平衡，因为它们接近你的抱负。

And that overlap then becomes the choice you make.

然后这种重叠就成为你做出的选择。

"Okay, we're going to go after this and here's the action steps we're going to take to do that." And if it's a big company, the action steps may extend over two or three years.

“好吧，我们将继续努力，这是我们为此将采取的行动步骤。”如果是一家大公司，行动步骤可能会持续两到三年。

Smaller company, took year, six months to a year.

小一点的公司，需要一年、六个月到一年的时间。

These are things we're going to do, not goals we're going to achieve.

这些是我们要做的事情，而不是我们要实现的目标。

These are things we're going to do, action steps.

这些是我们要做的事情，行动步骤。

That's sort of the way I put it together today, which is slightly different than the way it's put together in The Crux.

这就是我今天将其组合在一起的方式，与《The Crux》中的组合方式略有不同。

Lenny: Yeah, I love this advice.

莱尼：是的，我喜欢这个建议。

That's such a simpler way of thinking about strategy.

这是一种更简单的战略思考方式。

It's an action agenda.

这是一个行动议程。

"Here's the things we're actually going to do." And then it starts with the challenge.

“这就是我们实际上要做的事情。”然后就从挑战开始。

And just to talk about The Crux briefly, The Crux is named after this concept in mountain climbing of the hardest point of the mountain climb where people, if they get past that, it's all downhill.

简单地谈谈The Crux，The Crux 是根据登山中的这个概念命名的，即登山的最难点，人们如果超过了这一点，那就都是下坡了。

And I think basically the point there is focus on the most challenging, like the biggest challenge that you need to overcome to achieve these ambitions you're describing.

我认为基本上重点是最具挑战性的问题，比如为了实现你所描述的这些雄心壮志而需要克服的最大挑战。

Is that roughly the way to think about it?

大致是这样思考的吗？

Richard Rumelt: Yeah, yeah, and the idea comes from a design, and it comes from climbing, because I used to be a climber, a rock climber, and a snow climber, and a crux in a climb is the hardest part, the hardest pitch or a pitch, the hardest move is the crux of that piece.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：是的，是的，这个想法来自于设计，来自于攀岩，因为我曾经是一名攀岩者，一名攀岩者，一名雪地攀登者，而攀登中的关键是最难的部分，最难的音高或音高，最难的动作是那一块的关键。

And then the basic advice to a climber is if you can't do the crux, don't do the climb, because you're going to fall off there.

对登山者的基本建议是，如果你不能完成难关，就不要攀登，因为你会从那里掉下来。

Now that's not exactly true, because you can try it over and over again until you get it.

但这并不完全正确，因为你可以一遍又一遍地尝试，直到你明白为止。

But in general, particularly if you're looking at an alpine climb, you better not take it on a climb where you can't handle the crux.

但一般来说，特别是如果您打算进行高山攀登，您最好不要进行无法应对难点的攀登。

That's why people go bouldering.

这就是人们去抱石的原因。

The still up to him crux.

关键还是取决于他。

Richard Rumelt: And so that's what the concept of the crux comes from.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：这就是症结概念的由来。

Now in business, the crux is the hardest part of the problem.

现在做生意，症结就是问题中最难的部分。

And from the design point of view, the skilled designers, whether they're an engineer or an architect, what else?

而从设计的角度来看，熟练的设计师，无论他们是工程师还是建筑师，还有什么？

There's usually a challenge.

通常都会有挑战。

I.

我。

M.

M。

Pei was hired to take a look at the Louvre in Paris, and they had a dusty parking lot in the center of this giant palace that had become a museum, and they wanted an entrance to Louvre there.

贝聿铭受雇参观巴黎的卢浮宫，他们在这座已成为博物馆的巨大宫殿的中心有一个尘土飞扬的停车场，他们希望在那里有一个卢浮宫的入口。

And the problem is he didn't want it, they didn't want a new building that would obscure the Louvre itself.

问题是他不想要它，他们不想要一座会遮盖卢浮宫本身的新建筑。

The building itself is part of the story, it's part of the scene.

建筑本身是故事的一部分，是场景的一部分。

And yet at the same time, they needed to have an entrance, because the entrance at that time was off on the side wall.

但同时，他们也需要有一个入口，因为当时的入口是在侧墙上的。

Richard Rumelt: And you looked at the situation, and the competing needs, and the .

理查德·鲁梅尔特（Richard Rumelt）：您研究了形势、竞争性需求以及……。

And he had an insight into, "Well, build a transparent building, build a building out of glass, so that you see through to the Louvre, it doesn't obscure." And of course, if you can build a rectangular building out of glass, the top will get dirty.

他有一个洞察力，“好吧，建造一座透明的建筑，用玻璃建造一座建筑，这样你就可以看到卢浮宫，它不会遮挡。”当然，如果你能用玻璃建造一座矩形建筑，顶部就会弄脏。

So out of glass.

所以是玻璃之外的。

Now, that design insight is something that software engineers, hardware engineers, mechanical engineers, base science engineers like I was, experienced, when we look at a dilemma and we try to focus on what makes this hard.

现在，当我们看到一个困境并试图关注是什么让这个困境变得困难时，像我这样的软件工程师、硬件工程师、机械工程师、基础科学工程师都经历过这种设计洞察力。

And then by focusing on the difficulty, we see a way around it.

然后通过关注困难，我们找到了解决方法。

Elon Musk focused on, "Well, why is it so hard to reuse a rocket?" And it's so hard because as it comes back into the planet at 18,000 miles an hour, it burns up in the atmosphere, or we have to spend a lot of money on heat shields.

埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）专注于：“那么，为什么重复使用火箭这么难？”这非常困难，因为当它以每小时 18,000 英里的速度返回地球时，它会在大气中燃烧，否则我们必须花很多钱购买隔热罩。

And at some instant, he said to himself, "Well, why not, like science fiction, just turn it around and have it land on its rocket?" "Well, there's not enough fuel." "Well, why aren't we carrying more fuel?" So SpaceX, when I was designing, I was a conceptual designer, but machine that became Voyager and went out past the planets into interstellar space where it's floating around right now.

在某个瞬间，他对自己说：“好吧，为什么不像科幻小说那样，把它调转方向，让它降落在火箭上呢？” “嗯，燃料不够了。” “那么，我们为什么不携带更多燃料呢？”所以 SpaceX，当我设计的时候，我是一名概念设计师，但是这台机器后来变成了航行者号，穿过行星进入星际空间，现在它漂浮在星际空间中。

Well, one of the problems is how do you know where Jupiter is?

好吧，问题之一是你怎么知道木星在哪里？

" It's right there." "Okay, but how do you know where it is, plus or minus 100 miles?

“就在那里。” “好吧，但是你怎么知道它在哪里，正负 100 英里呢？

How do you know exactly where it is?

你怎么知道它到底在哪里？

When we set a mission to Mars, we were off by 500 miles.

当我们设定火星任务时，我们已经偏离了 500 英里。

So Jupiter, how do we know exactly where it is?" Because we can look at it through our telescopes so we can look at it from the right side of our orbit and the left side of our orbit.

那么木星，我们怎么知道它到底在哪里呢？”因为我们可以通过望远镜观察它，所以我们可以从轨道的右侧和轨道的左侧观察它。

But still, there was a couple thousand miles error in that.

但仍然存在几千英里的错误。

That's too much.

那就太多了。

And then studying that problem, the simple solution suddenly flashed, and I wish I could claim it was mine, and it wasn't, which is, "Oh, take a picture of it once we're halfway there.

然后研究这个问题，一个简单的解决方案突然闪现，我希望我可以声称它是我的，但它不是，也就是说，“哦，我们到一半的时候给它拍张照片。

We'll send that picture back and we'll see it against the distant stars.

我们会把那张照片发回来，我们会在遥远的星星的映衬下看到它。

And now we'll have a triangulation, know where it is." So designers experience this sense of focusing on the crux of the problem, the hard part, and then seeing a way through.

现在我们将进行三角测量，知道它在哪里。”因此，设计师会体验到这种专注于问题的症结、困难的部分，然后找到解决办法的感觉。

And that's strategy.

这就是策略。

Strategy isn't picking a strategy out of a list of common strategies.

战略并不是从一系列常见策略中选择一个策略。

It's looking at the problem, what makes that problem hard, and seeing a way to solve it.

它着眼于问题、是什么让问题变得困难，并找到解决问题的方法。

Richard Rumelt: Now it's called insight, and insight is scary.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：现在它被称为洞察力，洞察力是可怕的。

It's scary because it's not guaranteed to happen.

这很可怕，因为它不能保证会发生。

We want to innovate, but we're scared of insight.

我们想要创新，但我们害怕洞察力。

We want to be the first, but we'd like to pick our strategy out of a list of common strategies for being first.

我们想成为第一，但我们想从一系列常见的成为第一的策略中选择我们的策略。

We want to beat the market, but we don't want to study enough to have an insight.

我们想要打败市场，但我们不想进行足够的研究来获得洞察力。

So insight is critical.

因此洞察力至关重要。

Insight is not magical.

洞察力并不神奇。

It comes from immersing yourself in the nature of the problem.

它来自于让自己沉浸在问题的本质中。

And you will have, at some point, an insight about how to deal with it.

在某些时候，您将会了解如何处理它。

It doesn't always come when we want it to.

它并不总是在我们想要的时候出现。

It can come while you're driving the car, it can come the next day.

它可以在您开车时到达，也可以在第二天到达。

It can come in the shower.

它可以出现在淋浴间。

Charles Darwin reports that his insight into the nature of revolution came as he stepped off a carriage into the village green somewhere.

查尔斯·达尔文（Charles Darwin）报告说，当他走下马车进入村里某处的绿地时，他对革命的本质有了洞察力。

Boom, suddenly, he said, "Oh, yeah, it's obvious." It's like how we raise animals, we breed the strongest.

突然，他说道：“哦，是的，这很明显。”就像我们饲养动物一样，我们饲养最强壮的动物。

"Sure, why was that so hard for me to see?"

“当然，为什么我这么难看到呢？”

Lenny: So I think one of the big takeaways here is that if you want to get better at strategy or be more successful with how you think about strategy, spend a lot more time on diagnosing the problem and finding the biggest challenge that is keeping you from what you're trying to achieve.

莱尼：所以我认为这里的一大要点是，如果你想在战略方面做得更好，或者在如何思考战略方面取得更大的成功，就花更多的时间来诊断问题并找到阻碍你实现目标的最大挑战。

And your insight might come the more you immerse .

你沉浸得越深入，你的洞察力就会越强。

Richard Rumelt: Yeah, and call it an action agenda, "Here's what we're going to do." Not, "Here's all the things we wish would happen."

理查德·鲁梅尔特：是的，称之为行动议程，“这就是我们要做的。”不是，“这就是我们希望发生的所有事情。”

Lenny: I love it.

莱尼：我喜欢。

You mentioned this point that some of the biggest challenges to executing a strategy is organizational dynamics, and politics is a part of that.

您提到这一点，执行战略的一些最大挑战是组织动态，而政治是其中的一部分。

Is there anything you could share for folks to help them through that?

您有什么可以分享给人们来帮助他们渡过难关吗？

You talked about one of the biggest challenges, people just want to keep adding more priorities.

你谈到了最大的挑战之一，人们只是想不断增加更多的优先事项。

There's all these needs.

这些需求都有啊

Everyone wants to include their thing in the strategy.

每个人都想将自己的事情纳入战略中。

Is there anything people can do to improve how this works?

人们可以做些什么来改进它的工作方式吗？

Richard Rumelt: Typically, I'll say typically, we need hierarchy of power, because there has to be some mechanism for deciding what we're going to do.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：通常，我会说通常，我们需要权力等级制度，因为必须有某种机制来决定我们要做什么。

And there's people with different interests and different private interests and public interests.

人们有着不同的利益，以及不同的私人利益和公共利益。

And somehow, there has to be a choice about putting some of these aside and doing this, that you can't say, "Our strategy is to do everything that everybody wants to do." That's what happens when you form a committee in a city and you say, "What's our city strategy?" They say, "Oh, we're going to paint the park benches.

不知何故，必须做出选择，将其中一些放在一边并执行此操作，你不能说，“我们的策略是做每个人想做的一切。”这就是当你在一个城市组建一个委员会并问“我们的城市战略是什么？”时会发生的情况。他们说：“哦，我们要粉刷公园的长椅。

We're going to clean up the grass, we're going to build a new this, we're going to..."

我们要清理草地，我们要建造一个新的，我们要……”

Richard Rumelt: They have a that stuff, everything they're going to do with that.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：他们有这样的东西，他们要用它做的一切。

And anybody who raised their hand and says, "Well, what about the birds?

任何举手说：“那么，鸟儿呢？

Can we..." "Oh, yeah, let's put that in, too," that doesn't go anywhere.

我们可以……”“哦，是的，我们也把它放进去吧，”这不会有任何结果。

So we, inside organizations, people have different opinions.

因此，我们组织内部的人们有不同的意见。

So that's part, they have interests that they may not state clearly.

所以这就是一部分，他们有可能没有明确表达的利益。

Richard Rumelt: I interviewed Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld, while we were invading Iraq, second time, and I was actually interviewing about budget matters, but he asked me, "Well, what do you do, professor?" And I said, "Well, I do strategy." And he said, "Well, strategy, that's a hard subject." He said, "I've got people here in the Defense Department who have an expert on anything.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：当我们第二次入侵伊拉克时，我采访了国防部长唐纳德·拉姆斯菲尔德，我实际上是在采访预算问题，但他问我：“那么，教授，你是做什么的？”我说：“好吧，我做策略。”他说：“嗯，战略，这是一个很难的话题。”他说：“国防部里的人在任何方面都是专家。

You want to know the clan structure in Iraq, we've got people who know.

你想知道伊拉克的部族结构，我们有知道的人。

We want to know the weather, we've got people to know.

我们想知道天气，我们有人需要知道。

You want to know how many we can fly in 24 hours, people who know.

你们想知道我们 24 小时内可以飞行多少架飞机，知道的人。

I got anything you want to know, we've got someone who knows about it, but they all disagree.

我有你想知道的任何事情，我们有人知道，但他们都不同意。

And each have their own private agenda.

每个人都有自己的私人议程。

They have a contract they want to get, they have a company they want to support, they have a conceptual idea they want to push."

他们有想要获得的合同，有想要支持的公司，有想要推动的概念性想法。”

Richard Rumelt: So every little bit of information comes with an agenda, sometimes obvious, sometimes hidden.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：所以每一点信息都伴随着一个议程，有时是明显的，有时是隐藏的。

And how do you put all this stuff together to come up with a strategy?

如何将所有这些东西放在一起制定策略？

He says, "Do you academics have a solution to this?" And I said, "No, we don't.

他说：“你们学者有办法解决这个问题吗？”我说：“不，我们不这样做。

We don't know much more than, what, 2,000, 3,000 years ago, which is you put five to eight smart people in a room and you tell them to come up with something." But his question is at the heart of what I call a foundry, which is how do you get a group of people to coalesce around an action agenda?

我们不知道什么，2000、3000 年前，你把五到八个聪明人放在一个房间里，然后告诉他们想出一些办法。”但他的问题是我所说的铸造厂的核心，即如何让一群人围绕一项行动议程凝聚起来？

Richard Rumelt: And what process would you use and how do you do that?

Richard Rumelt：您会使用什么流程以及如何做到这一点？

It's a different question than, "What should our strategy be?" The question is, "Well, how should you go about creating a strategy?

这是一个与“我们的策略应该是什么？”不同的问题。问题是，“那么，你应该如何制定策略？

Should you ask the product manager to write an account, or should you ask the CEO to come up with it?

应该让产品经理写账，还是让CEO来写？

Should you hire a consultant?

您应该聘请顾问吗？

How do you do this?" In my experience, working with companies, is that the senior executives have to do this.

你怎么做到这一点？”根据我与公司合作的经验，高级管理人员必须这样做。

And my experience is that the senior executives know pretty much everything you need to know to do this, that you don't need consulting firms to come in and analyze everything that you do.

我的经验是，高级管理人员几乎知道你需要知道的一切，你不需要咨询公司进来分析你所做的一切。

Yes, you'll gain some insight if they come in and do a competitive analysis, and a customer analysis, and all of that.

是的，如果他们进来进行竞争分析、客户分析等等，您将会获得一些见解。

But the basic issues, the challenges you're facing, they know that.

但他们知道你面临的基本问题和挑战。

It's not mysterious.

这并不神秘。

They know all that stuff, but they disagree about the importance of different things.

他们知道所有这些东西，但他们对不同事物的重要性存在分歧。

And more importantly, they occupy positions of power that, if we go this way, this is going to be hurt.

更重要的是，他们占据着权力地位，如果我们这样做，就会受到伤害。

And if we go this way, they're more money for that.

如果我们走这条路，他们就会赚更多钱。

Richard Rumelt: And so their interests are not aligned, which is part of what Phil was referring to.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：所以他们的利益不一致，这就是菲尔所指的一部分。

And so the problem of strategy inside an organization is diversity of interest and fear of action.

因此，组织内部的战略问题是兴趣的多样性和对行动的恐惧。

Because action, when you do something in an organization of any size, it involves people changing what they do.

因为行动，当你在任何规模的组织中做某事时，它都会涉及人们改变他们所做的事情。

It involves changing power relationships among humans in some way, that someone who's been the alpha maybe is not the alpha anymore, someone else is the alpha.

它涉及以某种方式改变人类之间的权力关系，曾经是阿尔法的人可能不再是阿尔法，而其他人则是阿尔法。

This is heavy stuff.

这是很重的东西。

And this is why we have a hierarchy, because someone in the end has to say, "It's going to be this way." And people are hesitant to do that, CEOs are hesitant to do that.

这就是为什么我们有等级制度，因为最后必须有人说：“事情会是这样的。”人们对此犹豫不决，首席执行官也对这样做犹豫不决。

More so today than when I was a young man.

今天比我年轻时更是如此。

It's become hard for people to do this.

人们很难做到这一点。

If you go to the bookstore and look at the management section in bookstore, most of it's about leadership.

如果你去书店看看书店的管理部分，大部分都是关于领导力的。

Richard Rumelt: And the leadership is mostly about perfecting yourself.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：领导力主要是为了完善自己。

It's not about beating anybody, but the theory is that if you perfect yourself and somehow rays come out of your head and people will follow you, because you're so magnetic, and you're so perfect, and you're so wonderful, and you're so insightful, and that people will follow you, you won't ever have to say, ", do that." It's so embarrassing to tell somebody what to do.

这并不是要打败任何人，但理论是，如果你完善自己，不知怎的，光芒从你的头脑中射出，人们就会追随你，因为你是如此有魅力，你是如此完美，你是如此精彩，你是如此富有洞察力，人们会追随你，你永远不必说，“，这样做。”告诉别人该怎么做是很尴尬的事情。

Richard Rumelt: And so this is the world we live in today, where one of the problems in doing strategy is that it's somehow been displaced by this literary form about mission, and management is being displaced by leadership, which is the idea that the leader has a vision and people...

理查德·鲁梅尔特：这就是我们今天生活的世界，制定战略的问题之一是它在某种程度上被这种关于使命的文学形式所取代，而管理正在被领导力所取代，领导力是指领导者有愿景和人员......

It happened in the '80s.

事情发生在八十年代。

There's a whole literature there about transformational leadership that is percolated through the system, and those, I'm not against leadership, but you have to tell people at some point, "We're going to do this, and we're going to do it this way, and Bob's going to be in charge of this aspect, and Joan's going to be in charge of that aspect." And there's a hesitancy to make those choices, because that's part of the action agenda.

那里有一整套关于变革型领导力的文献，这些文献渗透到整个系统中，我并不反对领导力，但你必须在某个时候告诉人们，“我们要这样做，我们要这样做，鲍勃将负责这方面，琼将负责那方面。”人们对于做出这些选择犹豫不决，因为这是行动议程的一部分。

Lenny: So the takeaway there is essentially have a decider.

莱尼：所以要点本质上是有一个决定因素。

It makes me think of, actually, of George Bush.

实际上，这让我想起了乔治·布什。

You talked about Rumsfeld, but George Bush's famous quote, " I'm the decider." I don't know if you remember that?

你谈到了拉姆斯菲尔德，但谈到了乔治·布什的名言：“我是决定者。”不知道你还记得吗？

Richard Rumelt: Yeah, that's true.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：是的，确实如此。

One of the things we see in government particularly is presidents have a hard time getting advice, because they surround themselves with people who want to please them.

我们在政府中看到的一件事尤其是总统很难获得建议，因为他们周围都是想要取悦他们的人。

Number one, we rarely.,, It used to be, I remember during Woodrow Wilson's administration, when he decided to take some hard action, the , and he had to do something, , and the Secretary of State disagreed and quit.

第一，我们很少。，，我记得在伍德罗·威尔逊执政期间，当他决定采取一些强硬行动时，他必须做点什么，国务卿不同意并退出。

"Right, that's it.

“对了，就是这样。

Quit.

退出。

I disagree." Wow, don't see that so much anymore.

我不同意。”哇，再也见不到那么多了。

All the people, organizations get frozen because of the difficulty of changing positions of interest and power in .

所有的人、组织都因为难以改变利益和权力的位置而被冻结。

Richard Rumelt: Well, if you look at Nokia, one of the big examples of strategic errors, Nokia was the leading phone maker in the world world, and then somehow it lost its ability to compete.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：嗯，如果你看看诺基亚，它是战略错误的一个大例子，诺基亚是世界领先的手机制造商，然后不知何故失去了竞争能力。

And interesting question, there's been a fair amount of research on this, is how did that happen?

有趣的问题是，对此已有大量研究，这是如何发生的？

One way it happened was they replaced the engineers who used to run the company with lawyers and accountants.

发生这种情况的一种方式是，他们用律师和会计师取代了过去管理公司的工程师。

Nothing wrong with lawyers and accountants, but they didn't have a feel for this hardware, software set of issues.

律师和会计师没有错，但他们对这些硬件、软件问题没有感觉。

And another was they put in a matrix organization that so diffused power inside the organization that nobody was actually in charge of anything in particular.

另一个是他们建立了一个矩阵组织，该组织内部的权力如此分散，以至于没有人实际上负责任何特定的事情。

I'm exaggerating, but the CEO kept pounding the desk and saying, "Apple's coming out with a smartphone and you have a touchscreen, and somebody here should make one of those." So there was no one in authority to do such a thing.

我有点夸张，但首席执行官一直拍着桌子说：“苹果公司推出了智能手机，而你有触摸屏，这里应该有人制造其中一款。”所以没有人有权做这样的事情。

Lenny: Maybe a final question on the other end of the spectrum, from an Nokia, from a startup founder's perspective, what is a strategy and what should a strategy look like if you're just a founder, pre-product market fit, just trying to figure out where you want to go?

莱尼：也许最后一个问题是从诺基亚，从初创公司创始人的角度来看，什么是战略？如果你只是一名创始人，在产品上市之前就适应市场，只是想弄清楚自己想要走向何方，那么战略应该是什么样子？

What should a strategy look like there?

那里的策略应该是什么样的？

Do you even need a strategy?

您还需要策略吗？

Richard Rumelt: Well, you're dealing with a lot of uncertainty When you're a founder in a startup, you're making a bet.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：嗯，你要面对很多不确定性。当你是一家初创公司的创始人时，你就在做赌注。

You're making a bet like an oil well say, "I bet there's oil under this ground.

你就像打油井一样打赌：“我打赌这块地底下有石油。

We're going to drill, we're going to find it." There's a certain amount of bet that's going on, and you should be clear about the nature of the bet.

我们要钻探，我们要找到它。”赌注是有一定数额的，你应该清楚赌注的性质。

The reality is going to be revealed to you in bits and pieces as time passes, whether a certain approach is going to work or not.

随着时间的推移，无论某种方法是否有效，现实都会一点一点地向你揭示。

What we find doing research on startups, Silicon Valley startups, is they start out typically aiming at a particular product market solution.

我们对硅谷初创公司进行研究发现，他们一开始通常针对特定的产品市场解决方案。

And the idea that you have in your head is, "There's a set of customers who want A, would like to have A, are being denied A, but we have a way of giving them A," something, a product or a service.

你脑子里的想法是，“有一群客户想要 A，想要拥有 A，但却被拒绝了，但我们有办法为他们提供 A”，某种产品或服务。

Richard Rumelt: Now, some people, they aren't that even advanced.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：现在，有些人甚至没有那么先进。

They basically say, "I know how to make something and I'm going to try to sell it." You know, approach.

他们基本上会说：“我知道如何制造某种东西，并且我将尝试出售它。”你知道，接近。

Well, if you have any chance of succeeding, you have , you have target market, and you have a solution to the target market's problem in mind, and now you're going to go after it.

好吧，如果你有任何成功的机会，你有，你有目标市场，并且你心中有目标市场问题的解决方案，现在你要去追求它。

And the research that we have done on the startups is that generally it doesn't work.

我们对初创公司所做的研究表明，这种做法通常行不通。

Richard Rumelt: But the ones that survive and prosper switch.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：但那些幸存下来并繁荣发展的人却发生了转变。

They say, "Well, it isn't that customer, it's a different customer.

他们说：“好吧，这不是那个客户，而是另一个客户。

You should walk from that customer.

你应该从那个顾客身边走开。

Oh, and that customer wants a slightly different product," and they switch over a period of a year or two period, bang, bang, until something begins to click, and they begin to grow, and begin to add functions and assets.

哦，那个客户想要一个稍微不同的产品，”然后他们在一两年内切换，砰，砰，直到某些东西开始点击，他们开始成长，并开始添加功能和资产。

So there's a search, there's a search like a truffle hound searching for the truffle that's going on.

所以有一个搜索，就像松露猎犬正在寻找松露一样。

Richard Rumelt: And you've got to be able to think, you've got to be of two minds.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：你必须能够思考，你必须有两个想法。

Like so many things in business, when you're doing this, you've got to be of two minds.

就像商业中的许多事情一样，当你做这件事时，你必须有两个想法。

You've got to be convinced of the certainty that you're going to win, and you've got to be willing to shift when things aren't working, and that's a double-jointed exercise that some people can do and some people can't.

你必须确信你会获胜，并且当事情不顺利时你必须愿意改变，这是一个双关节练习，有些人可以做到，有些人则不能。

It's almost a human skill to both commit and to be willing to move.

做出承诺并愿意采取行动几乎是一种人类技能。

But it's a bet.

但这是一个赌注。

You should be clear in your own mind about the nature of the situation, the technology that you're betting on.

您应该清楚地了解情况的性质以及您所押注的技术。

Now, sometimes it's evolving so fast, like generative AI is right now, that you can't be sure.

现在，有时它发展得如此之快，就像现在的生成人工智能一样，你无法确定。

Richard Rumelt: ...

理查德·鲁梅尔特：……

That you're going to take a position, where do you think things are going to be in a year?

您将采取一个立场，您认为一年后情况会怎样？

And that's very, very entrepreneurial, very edgy stuff, but it's not...

这是非常非常有创业精神、非常前卫的东西，但它不是……

Go back and read about the beginnings of the electrical industry or the beginnings of aviation or the beginnings of motorize this and beginnings of cars.

返回并阅读有关电气工业的起源或航空的起源或机动化的起源和汽车的起源的信息。

People had to bet about what this industry would look like.

人们必须押注这个行业会是什么样子。

The first cars were electric cars.

第一辆汽车是电动汽车。

The first car sold in quantity in the United States were electric delivery vehicles used downtown in cities, delivery produce.

美国第一批批量销售的汽车是在城市市中心使用的电动送货车，用于运送农产品。

They were electric, ran on batteries.

它们是电动的，靠电池运行。

That was the bet.

这就是赌注。

Richard Rumelt: All that changed with the First World War.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：一切都随着第一次世界大战而改变。

The United States built thousands and thousands of gasoline powered trucks to go to Europe, wrestled through the mud, and people came back knowing how to fix those engines, and those trucks got sold off as wholesale to farmers, who used them on their fields, and we had the gasoline to take off like a rocket.

美国制造了成千上万辆汽油动力卡车运往欧洲，在泥泞中挣扎，人们回来后知道如何修理这些发动机，这些卡车批发给农民，他们在自己的田地里使用它们，我们有了汽油，可以像火箭一样起飞。

So, you cannot predict the future.

所以，你无法预测未来。

There's an Arab saying that I like that says, "He who forecasts the future lies, even if he tells the truth." We're making bets.

我喜欢一句阿拉伯谚语：“预测未来的人即使说的是真话，也会撒谎。”我们正在打赌。

That's what business is, we're making a bet.

这就是生意，我们在打赌。

And if we're a rich company, we can make a bet and afford to be wrong.

如果我们是一家富有的公司，我们就可以下注并承担错误的代价。

But if we're a startup, we have to be fast, we have to adapt as the information comes in, and that's the nature of the story.

但如果我们是一家初创公司，我们必须要快，我们必须随着信息的到来而适应，这就是故事的本质。

The action agenda has to be quick adaptation to changing conditions.

行动议程必须快速适应不断变化的条件。

Lenny: I feel like you have another book here where you could adapt a lot of this wisdom to startups.

莱尼：我觉得你这里有另一本书，你可以将很多这种智慧应用到初创企业中。

I'm looking at my notes from what we were talking about earlier, and you have this point of when you're trying to write out a...

我正在看我们之前讨论过的笔记，当你试图写出一个......

You call it an action agenda, not a strategy, you're basically on the hunt for a big problem and an important problem and an achievable problem.

你称之为行动议程，而不是战略，你基本上是在寻找一个大问题、一个重要问题和一个可实现的问题。

And essentially you can boil that down to that is the job of a founder to find an important problem and achievable problem and then solve it for a lot of people.

从本质上讲，你可以归结为创始人的工作就是找到一个重要的问题和可实现的问题，然后为很多人解决它。

Richard Rumelt: I like that.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：我喜欢这个。

The other exercise I used to take my students through was what I called value denial.

我用来引导学生进行的另一个练习是我所说的“价值否认”。

Now, what is it that you should be able to buy but you can't?

现在，有什么是你应该买但买不到的？

And at the time I taught this stuff, I was upset because I would lose my baggage on a nonstop flight from Los Angeles to Paris, so I'd like to buy baggage...

当我教这些东西的时候，我很沮丧，因为我会在从洛杉矶到巴黎的直飞航班上丢失我的行李，所以我想购买行李......

Sure, so I'd like to buy...

当然可以，所以我想买...

How do you get your baggage not to be lost?

怎样才能让行李不丢失呢？

Now, with security systems in place, it's less, let's call it.

现在，有了安全系统，它就少了，我们可以这样称呼它。

Can I find someone to help me remodel my home that's going to be on time and I'll bet you not available.

我可以找人帮我按时改造我的家吗，我敢打赌你没空。

Can't buy it at any price.

无论什么价格都买不到。

If I live in Hong Kong and I'm going to the airport, I can drop my luggage off downtown and it arrives at the airport checked in.

如果我住在香港并且要去机场，我可以将行李放在市中心，然后到达机场办理登机手续。

I don't have to lug it.

我不用拖着它。

Why can't I do that in the US?

为什么我在美国做不到？

Value denial.

价值否定。

Richard Rumelt: And then engineering, thinking about how something ought to be, a channel, salesforce.com got started was, "Well, how should this be?

理查德·鲁梅尔特：然后工程，思考某个东西应该是什么样子，一个渠道，salesforce.com 开始是，“嗯，这应该是什么样子？

It shouldn't be a computer, it should be a webpage.

它不应该是一台计算机，它应该是一个网页。

It should be like Amazon where it has books." And so, that was the beginning of salesforce.com.

它应该像亚马逊一样有书籍。”这就是 salesforce.com 的开始。

I asked a group of students once to think about the perfect window because it's physical, something we could think about in the classroom without doing a lot of research.

我曾经让一群学生思考完美的窗户，因为它是物理的，我们可以在课堂上思考，而无需做大量研究。

Well, what's the perfect window?

那么，什么是完美的窗户呢？

A perfect window should be transparent, should let the sun in.

完美的窗户应该是透明的，应该让阳光进来。

All right, so it's let in the light, but not all the time.

好吧，所以它是让光线进来的，但不是一直。

Sometimes you want to watch the television.

有时你想看电视。

So, it should also darken, drapes for shades.

因此，它也应该变暗，用窗帘遮挡。

It should let in the air, good, but not the bugs, a screen.

它应该让空气进入，很好，但不能让虫子进入，一个屏幕。

It should let in the air, but not the noise.

它应该让空气进入，但不能让噪音进入。

That's a little harder.

这有点难。

Richard Rumelt: So, you go down a list of things that a window should do.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：所以，你列出了窗口应该做的事情。

It should let in light, but not light.

它应该让光进来，但不让光进来。

It should let in air, but not the noise.

它应该让空气进入，但不能让噪音进入。

It should not let in air when we don't want it.

当我们不需要时，它不应该让空气进入。

It should not let in the bugs.

它不应该让错误进入。

It should maybe have shutters or not shutters.

它可能应该有百叶窗或没有百叶窗。

And so I said, "How could you design the perfect window?

所以我说：“你怎样才能设计出完美的窗户呢？

What would it look like?" And there's some kids at MIT that had developed this thing that lets in air, but keeps out the noise, these little auditory filters keep out noises in certain frequencies.

它会是什么样子？”麻省理工学院的一些孩子开发了这种东西，可以让空气进入，但可以阻挡噪音，这些小听觉过滤器可以阻挡某些频率的噪音。

Well, we don't have a perfect window, but think about it, windows could be better than they are.

好吧，我们没有完美的窗户，但想一想，窗户可以比现在更好。

Richard Rumelt: And that's a real simple device that we're all familiar with, and look around you, look at everything you've got and say, well, "How shouldn't it be?" And there's opportunities there.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：这是一个我们都熟悉的真正简单的设备，看看你周围，看看你拥有的一切，然后说，“它不应该是这样吗？”那里有机会。

Now, a lot of the times, the opportunities are blocked by the lack of certain materials or regulation.

现在，很多时候，机会因缺乏某些材料或监管而被阻碍。

Regulators have decided that you can't sell a car in the United States unless it goes through a dealer.

监管机构决定，除非通过经销商，否则不能在美国销售汽车。

So, that holds back innovation in that business.

因此，这阻碍了该业务的创新。

And so plumbing, how should plumbing actually work?

那么管道系统到底应该如何工作呢？

Richard Rumelt: Well, there's a whole surge of rules about how plumbing works and electrical things work.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：嗯，关于管道和电气设备如何工作有大量的规则。

You can't innovate there very easily because of the underwriter's labs and the unions, and a lot of the stuff that's done in home construction is there to create jobs, not to reduce costs.

由于承销商实验室和工会的原因，你不能很容易地在那里进行创新，而且在房屋建筑中所做的很多事情都是为了创造就业机会，而不是为了降低成本。

So, how do you get around that?

那么，你如何解决这个问题呢？

So, you have to look at places where it's possible to innovate first of all, but the idea of how do you make something better?

因此，你必须首先考虑可以创新的地方，但如何才能做得更好呢？

How do you make it perfect?

你如何让它变得完美？

What would the perfect light switch look like, and so on?

完美的电灯开关是什么样的？等等？

These are real simple, silly questions, but they lead to new businesses and new firms if you pursue them.

这些都是非常简单、愚蠢的问题，但如果你追求它们，它们会带来新的业务和新的公司。

Lenny: I love how full of startup ideas you are.

莱尼：我喜欢你充满的创业想法。

I also think we came up with at least two new books that you can write.

我还认为我们至少想出了两本你可以写的新书。

I think you're going to have a lot of work to do after this conversation.

我想在这次谈话之后你将会有很多工作要做。

Final question, is there anything you want to leave listeners with or take away?

最后一个问题，您有什么想留给听众或带走的东西吗？

Is there a final nugget you just want to share for folks?

您还有最后一点想与大家分享的吗？

Richard Rumelt: I want to share with you that strategy's not mysterious, that I've spent my life studying strategy, pursuing it, consulting on it, writing about it.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：我想与您分享的是，战略并不神秘，我一生都在研究战略、追求战略、咨询战略、撰写战略文章。

It's not mysterious.

这并不神秘。

It's about solving problems.

这是为了解决问题。

It's about solving the most important problem you're facing that you actually do something about.

这是关于解决你所面临的最重要的问题，并且你实际上正在做一些事情。

You don't have to be Sun Tzu to come up with a strategy, but you need to be focused on something doable and be consistent about it.

你不必成为孙子才能制定策略，但你需要专注于可行的事情并始终如一。

I have a long list of things not to do.

我有一长串不该做的事情。

There's a fourth book that I'm thinking about writing called Don't Do That.

我正在考虑写第四本书，名为《不要那样做》。

Lenny: I would read that.

莱尼：我会读的。

I love that title.

我喜欢这个标题。

Richard Rumelt: My wife Kate took up skiing when we got married 24, 25 years ago, and she had this stance that she couldn't get rid of.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：我的妻子凯特在 24、25 年前我们结婚时就开始滑雪，她的这种态度无法摆脱。

When you make a turn, you don't turn like that, you put the ski out the step.

当你转弯时，你不是那样转弯，而是把滑雪板放在台阶外面。

I made her ski on one ski, I did all sorts of things to her back, she couldn't fix it.

我在一块滑雪板上做了她的滑雪板，我在她的背上做了各种各样的事情，她无法修复它。

And finally we signed up with an illustrious ski teacher in Aspen, a three-day intense program, guaranteed that she would lose her stance, exceeded them all.

最后我们在阿斯彭与一位著名的滑雪老师签约，为期三天的紧张项目，保证她会失去她的立场，超越他们。

Richard Rumelt: And so we went there...

理查德·鲁梅尔特：所以我们去了那里......

On the second day, I followed behind the instructor and her to see what was going on, and they had been through some exercises on day one, but in day two they were focusing on this and she would put out her ski like that and he'd yell at her.

第二天，我跟在教练和她后面看发生了什么事，第一天他们已经做了一些练习，但第二天他们就专注于此，她会像那样把滑雪板拿出来，他会对她大喊大叫。

He'd say, "Don't do that," and after a day of being yelled at, "Don't do that," she didn't do it anymore, she was fixed.

他会说，“不要那样做”，经过一天被吼“不要那样做”之后，她不再这样做了，她已经固定了。

So, the secret technique that they had in this program for curing your stance was to yell at you telling you, "Don't do that." And so I'm thinking about a book called Don't Do That about business things where I'm not sure it makes sense, but you have to noodle these things for a while before they begin to gel.

所以，他们在这个项目中用来纠正你立场的秘密技巧就是对你大喊大叫，告诉你“不要这样做”。所以我正在考虑一本叫做《不要那样做》的书，它是关于商业事物的，我不确定它是否有意义，但在它们开始凝结之前，你必须先磨练这些东西一段时间。

Lenny: I love this idea.

莱尼：我喜欢这个主意。

It reminds me, one of my friends is a therapist, and there's this video by Bob Newhart where he's a therapist and someone comes to him and they've got all these problems like, "I get really sad when I think about my mom and I have this chronic pain," and his advice, "Just stop it, just stop."

这让我想起，我的一个朋友是一名治疗师，鲍勃·纽哈特（Bob Newhart）拍摄了一段视频，其中他是一名治疗师，有人来找他，他们遇到了所有这些问题，比如“当我想到我的妈妈和我患有这种慢性疼痛时，我真的很难过”，他的建议是“停止它，停止它。”

Richard Rumelt: Don't do that, just stop thinking about your mom.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：别那样做，别再想你妈妈了。

Lenny: "Just stop it," that's the advice.

莱尼：“停下来吧，”这就是建议。

And so, I feel like there's a lot of synergy there.

所以，我觉得那里有很多协同作用。

All right, well, with that, we've reached our very exciting lightning round.

好吧，就这样，我们已经进入了非常激动人心的闪电回合。

Are you ready?

你准备好了吗？

Lenny: First question, what are two or three books you've recommended most to other people?

莱尼：第一个问题，你向其他人推荐最多的两三本书是什么？

I feel like this is going to be a challenging question, but what comes to mind?

我觉得这将是一个具有挑战性的问题，但是我会想到什么？

Richard Rumelt: It sort of is.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：确实如此。

The books that I'm...

我所读的书...

Clayton Christensen's stuff about The Innovator's Dilemma is always solid.

克莱顿·克里斯滕森（Clayton Christensen）关于创新者困境的文章总是很扎实。

Books on strategy that I recommend to other people on...

我向其他人推荐的有关策略的书籍...

There aren't that many.

没有那么多。

So, I like Playing to Win by Roger Martin.

所以，我喜欢罗杰·马丁的《为赢而战》。

I really recommend other kinds of books, strategy books.

我真的很推荐其他类型的书籍，策略书籍。

It's easy to get a list of strategy books, but I think you should read biographies and histories.

获得策略书籍清单很容易，但我认为你应该阅读传记和历史。

I think the book about Steve Jobs is brilliant.

我认为关于史蒂夫·乔布斯的书非常棒。

I like books about business leaders.

我喜欢关于商业领袖的书。

I'd recommend Andy Grove's book Only the Paranoid Survive, and a few others, but I recommend that people read more broadly about people, Rockefeller's histories, it's fantastic.

我推荐安迪·格罗夫的书《只有偏执狂才能生存》和其他一些书，但我建议人们更广泛地阅读有关人的内容，洛克菲勒的历史，这太棒了。

Richard Rumelt: The stuff about Rockefeller and how he put together...

理查德·鲁梅尔特：关于洛克菲勒的事情以及他如何组织起来......

Rockefeller was a robber baron and he built an empire and all that, you learn that in school, but what you don't learn in school is he dropped the cost of a gallon of kerosene from $1 to 10 cents.

洛克菲勒是一个强盗大亨，他建立了一个帝国，所有这些你在学校都会学到，但你在学校不会学到的是，他将一加仑煤油的成本从 1 美元降低到 10 美分。

That's the robber baron, and he made kerosene so inexpensive that he drove all the little mom and pop proprietors out of business, which is why they hated him.

那是强盗大亨，他制造的煤油非常便宜，以至于他把所有小夫妻店主都赶出了生意，这就是他们讨厌他的原因。

So, he was a vicious competitor, but he dropped the price of something by an order of magnitude, fascinating.

所以，他是一个恶性竞争者，但他把某种东西的价格降低了一个数量级，令人着迷。

So, it's important to understand stories, not just theories, but stories.

所以，理解故事很重要，不仅仅是理论，而是故事。

Lenny: I love how this always comes back to just being steeped in history and this specific point about biographies is really interesting, and we'll link to all these books that you're mentioning in the show notes.

莱尼：我喜欢这总是回到沉浸在历史中，关于传记的这一特定观点非常有趣，我们将链接到您在演出笔记中提到的所有这些书籍。

Is there a favorite recent movie or TV show that you've really enjoyed?

最近有没有您真正喜欢的最喜欢的电影或电视节目？

Richard Rumelt: Oh yeah, sure.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：哦，是的，当然。

Well, I like Yellowstone, like everybody else.

嗯，我喜欢黄石公园，就像其他人一样。

I'm fascinated by it.

我对它着迷。

Recent movies other than Yellowstone?

除了《黄石公园》之外，最近还有哪些电影？

I'm not sure.

我不知道。

We don't have a TV in the house right now, so I'm not connected.

我们家里现在没有电视，所以我无法连接。

Lenny: That's amazing, that's the dream.

莱尼：太棒了，这就是梦想。

I wish I could do that.

我希望我能做到这一点。

Richard Rumelt: There will be a TV, but that room is being remodeled.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：会有一台电视，但那个房间正在改造。

Lenny: I see, just a matter of time.

莱尼：我明白了，只是时间问题。

Is there a favorite interview question you'd like to ask people you interview, maybe specifically around helping you get a sense of are they good at strategic thinking?

您最想问您面试的人一个最喜欢的面试问题，也许特别是帮助您了解他们是否擅长战略思维？

Richard Rumelt: I like to ask people about, what have you done that was hard that you're proud of?

理查德·鲁梅尔特（Richard Rumelt）：我喜欢问人们，你做过哪些艰难而值得自豪的事情？

What have you done that was difficult?

你做过什么困难的事？

And what was it and why was it difficult and how did you get it done?

它是什么？为什么它很困难？你是如何完成它的？

I like to ask people about what they think was an interesting strategy from any time in the past they want to call out.

我喜欢询问人们他们认为过去任何时候他们想要提出的有趣策略是什么。

Depending on the person's background, I might ask them about a particular company or situation, let's say, why do you think this worked or why didn't it work?

根据这个人的背景，我可能会询问他们特定的公司或情况，比如说，你认为为什么这有效或为什么无效？

So, I don't tend to ask questions about theory, I tend to ask questions about things that happened and part of me, I'm looking, does this person have any knowledge about the world or are they just know what the professor said last year.

所以，我不倾向于问有关理论的问题，我倾向于问有关发生的事情和我的一部分的问题，我在寻找，这个人是否有关于世界的知识，或者他们只知道教授去年说了什么。

So, that kind of thing.

所以，那种事情。

Lenny: Is there a favorite product you've recently discovered that you really like, whether it's an app, some you bought, some in the house, some on the road?

Lenny：你最近发现有没有一款你真正喜欢的最喜欢的产品，无论是应用程序，有些是你买的，有些是在家里，有些是在路上？

Richard Rumelt: Well, we've got this new memory foam bed that we like, it's a pretty amazing innovation.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：嗯，我们有这款我们喜欢的新型记忆海绵床，这是一项非常惊人的创新。

I didn't think we'd like that, but we do.

我不认为我们会喜欢这样，但我们确实喜欢。

I really am fascinated by...

我真的很着迷...

I'm about to pull the trigger on buying one of these new smart telescopes.

我即将购买一台新型智能望远镜。

Lenny: Smart telescopes?

莱尼：智能望远镜？

I haven't heard of that.

我没听说过。

What makes them so smart?

是什么让他们如此聪明？

Richard Rumelt: It's a 12-inch reflected telescope, and it's too heavy to look around, it's too difficult to set up, but there are sort of new smart telescopes that run on a battery and you can put them outside.

理查德·鲁梅尔特（Richard Rumelt）：这是一个 12 英寸的反射望远镜，它太重了，无法环顾四周，设置也太困难，但是有一些新型智能望远镜靠电池运行，你可以把它们放在外面。

And the way they work is, first of all, they know where everything is in the sky, which has been around for a long time, but the new thing is, it's like astrophotography.

他们的工作方式是，首先，他们知道天空中一切事物的位置，这已经存在很长时间了，但新事物是，它就像天文摄影。

They'll look at something for a minute, two minutes, 10 minutes, an hour, and form an image.

他们会看某样东西一分钟、两分钟、十分钟、一小时，然后形成图像。

You don't look through the telescope, you look at it on your phone or your computer, but you can see now the nebula that maybe the web telescope can see and you can see it now and you can see stuff out there that you couldn't before.

你不通过望远镜看，而是在手机或电脑上看，但你现在可以看到网络望远镜可以看到的星云，你现在可以看到它，你可以看到以前看不到的东西。

And these are new things for $1,000 or $2,000 set that are remarkable in what they can do.

这些都是 1,000 美元或 2,000 美元套装的新产品，其功能非常出色。

Lenny: Excellent choice.

莱尼：很棒的选择。

Next question, do you have a favorite life motto that you often find yourself coming back to, sharing with friends, either in your work or in your life?

下一个问题，您是否有一条最喜欢的人生格言，无论是在工作中还是在生活中，您经常会回想起并与朋友分享？

Richard Rumelt: I used to have a final lecture I'd give to my MBA students about little pieces of wisdom, things not to do, things that offend people in other cultures.

理查德·鲁梅尔特（Richard Rumelt）：我曾经给我的 MBA 学生做最后一次演讲，内容涉及一些小智慧、不该做的事情以及冒犯其他文化中的人的事情。

Don't do this if you're in Turkey, it means something else there.

如果你在土耳其，请不要这样做，这意味着那里有别的东西。

But I'd also say at some point your spouse or your partner will ask you, "Do you still love me?" And there's only one correct answer to that question, which is more than ever.

但我也想说，在某些时候，你的配偶或伴侣会问你：“你还爱我吗？”这个问题只有一个正确答案，而且比以往任何时候都多。

And my wedding ring says that inside it, more than ever.

我的结婚戒指里面比以往任何时候都更能说明这一点。

So, I don't know if that's what you're looking for, but that's-

所以，我不知道这是否是你要找的，但那是-

Richard Rumelt: ...

理查德·鲁梅尔特：……

Getting a sense piece of wisdom.

获得一种智慧的感觉。

Lenny: That is really good advice, gave me tingles.

莱尼：这真是个好建议，让我很兴奋。

I'm going to use that, 100%.

我会用它，100%。

Thank you for some marriage advice.

谢谢你给我一些婚姻建议。

Final question, your daughter Cassandra is a writer as well in fiction.

最后一个问题，你的女儿卡桑德拉也是一名小说作家。

She writes fiction.

她写小说。

Is there anything that she taught you about writing that's helped you become a better writer?

她教给你的关于写作的任何东西有没有帮助你成为一名更好的作家？

Richard Rumelt: Yeah, Cassandra is the...

理查德·鲁梅尔特：是的，卡桑德拉是……

Oh my God, she's got like 25 books on the New York Times Bestseller list for teen fiction now.

天哪，她现在已经有大约 25 本书登上了《纽约时报》青少年小说畅销书排行榜。

She started writing when she was 12 or 13.

她在12或13岁的时候就开始写作。

She had a talent for it.

她有这方面的天赋。

She's told me about the tension that you have to create and she writes novels and that it's not interesting unless there's...

她告诉我你必须创造紧张气氛，她写小说，除非有……否则就没意思。

Well, we started talking about this when she was young, she was 14, and she asked me about, what is romance?

好吧，我们在她年轻的时候就开始谈论这个，她 14 岁，她问我，什么是浪漫？

I said, "Well, romance is a barrier.

我说：“嗯，浪漫是一个障碍。

Romance is where there's a difficulty back to a couple, and there's some kind of..."

浪漫是情侣间遇到困难的地方，而且有某种……”

Richard Rumelt: She said, "Oh, like he's rich and she's poor?" I said, "Yeah, like that." "Or he comes from the north side of town and she comes from the south." And I said, "Like that, yes." And she said, "Oh, like he's a vampire and she's not?" Okay, so she has alerted me and taught me about ways of creating that kind of tension in writing.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：她说，“哦，好像他很有钱，而她很穷？”我说：“是的，就像这样。” “或者他来自城镇的北边，而她来自南边。”我说：“就像那样，是的。”她说：“哦，好像他是吸血鬼而她不是？”好吧，她提醒了我并教我如何在写作中创造这种紧张感。

It doesn't work as much in business writing as I'd like, but I try to create this sense of it's good strategy, bad strategy.

它在商业写作中的作用并不如我所希望的那么大，但我试图营造出这种策略是好的策略还是坏的策略的感觉。

It's a sense of there's a tension between the right way and a wrong way, or if not a right and wrong way, at least there's a tension between, should we go left or should we go right?

这是一种正确的方式和错误的方式之间存在紧张关系的感觉，或者即使不是正确的方式和错误的方式，至少也存在一种紧张关系，我们应该向左走还是应该向右走？

It makes it interesting, otherwise it doesn't catch people's emotional court.

它使它变得有趣，否则它不会引起人们的情感法庭。

Lenny: Amazing.

莱尼：太棒了。

Richard, thank you so much for being here.

理查德，非常感谢你来到这里。

I think we're going to help a lot more people face bigger challenges and face them head-on and put together their action agendas and overcome this crux.

我认为我们将帮助更多的人面对更大的挑战，直面它们，整理他们的行动议程并克服这个症结。

Thank you so much for being here.

非常感谢您来到这里。

Two final questions, where can folks find you if they ever want to try to reach out or learn more about the work you're doing these days?

最后两个问题，如果人们想尝试联系或了解更多有关您目前所做工作的信息，可以在哪里找到您？

And then how can listeners be useful to you?

那么听众如何对你有用呢？

Richard Rumelt: I have a little website called thecruxbook.com that has information about me and about the books, so there.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：我有一个名为 thecruxbook.com 的小网站，其中包含有关我和书籍的信息，所以就在那里。

Don't write to me at UCLA.

不要在加州大学洛杉矶分校给我写信。

I don't pay attention to the UCLA website anymore, but if you go to thecruxbook.com, there's some email addresses where I can be reached.

我不再关注加州大学洛杉矶分校的网站，但如果你访问 thecruxbook.com，那里有一些可以联系到我的电子邮件地址。

My little company's called General Imagination.

我的小公司叫做 General Imagination。

It's like General Motors, but a lot smaller.

它就像通用汽车公司，但规模要小得多。

It's just me, and you can reach me at richard@generalimagination.com.

只有我一个人，您可以通过 richard@generalimagination.com 联系我。

You can help me out...

你可以帮我...

Oh, tell me stories.

哦，给我讲故事吧。

Tell me stories about your experiences, trying to create strategies, particularly inside organizations.

告诉我有关您尝试制定策略的经历的故事，特别是在组织内部。

How's it worked for you trying to get something done inside organizations?

您尝试在组织内部完成某件事的效果如何？

I'm happy to add more stories to my repertoire.

我很高兴为我的剧目添加更多故事。

Oh, and hire me.

哦，还有雇用我。

Lenny: Wait, say more on that.

莱尼：等等，再多说一点。

What is it that people would hire you for?

人们雇用你的目的是什么？

Richard Rumelt: At this point in my life, I do public speaking.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：在我人生的这个阶段，我从事公开演讲。

I speak on strategy and growth, and just got back from Korea doing it, I taught there.

我谈论战略和增长，刚从韩国回来，我在那里教书。

I do a little bit of teaching, not much.

我只教一点点，不多。

Maybe for the military people, if they want me to come in and do a day on strategy and I do foundries.

也许对于军人来说，如果他们想让我进来做一天的战略工作，而我则负责铸造厂。

A foundry is where you commit to a problem-oriented approach to strategy where the organizational leader, the CEO, usually plus another seven or eight people take two to three or four days off and we meet and we try to come up with, in the end, an action agenda and it's an interpersonal exercise.

在铸造厂，你要致力于以问题为导向的战略方法，组织领导者、首席执行官，通常加上另外七八个人，会休息两到三到四天，我们会面，最后尝试提出一个行动议程，这是一种人际交往。

Richard Rumelt: I'm the facilitator.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：我是协调人。

I don't tell them what to do, but I urge them to look more deeply and to understand what these problems actually are.

我不会告诉他们该怎么做，但我敦促他们更深入地研究并了解这些问题到底是什么。

It's interesting to do a foundry.

做铸造厂很有趣。

You get quite focused on problems, as I do at the beginning.

就像我一开始一样，你会非常专注于问题。

I'll often get 25, 50 problems up on the board or Post-It notes around, and when people look at that, they'll say, "I haven't ever done this before." When they see the 25 different problems or challenges, they realize you can't do them all.

我经常会在黑板上或便利贴上列出 25、50 个问题，当人们看到这些问题时，他们会说：“我以前从未这样做过。”当他们看到 25 种不同的问题或挑战时，他们意识到您无法全部解决。

And so, they begin to get this sense of, "Oh geez, we better focus.

因此，他们开始有这样的感觉：“哦，天哪，我们最好集中注意力。

We better focus on something.

我们最好专注于某件事。

We better do something about some of these." And so, then we begin to go through this thing, "Well, which ones are really important and which ones are really addressable?" Well, sometimes we don't know if they're addressable or not.

我们最好对其中一些采取一些措施。”所以，然后我们开始讨论这个问题，“嗯，哪些是真正重要的，哪些是真正可以解决的？”嗯，有时我们不知道它们是否可寻址。

Oh, well, is there anybody in the organization who does know?

哦，好吧，组织里有人知道吗？

Is there someone we could fly in here or have some perspective on this?

有没有人可以让我们飞到这里或者对此有一些看法？

So, we begin to try to identify the one or two key challenges that can actually be addressed and what are we going to do about it?

因此，我们开始尝试确定实际上可以解决的一两个关键挑战以及我们将采取什么措施？

What are the coherent actions we're going to do to take these on?

我们将采取哪些连贯的行动来应对这些问题？

That's the exercise.

这就是练习。

Richard Rumelt: From time to time, after the foundries, they all say to me, "Well, where's the strategy?

Richard Rumelt：有时，在代工厂之后，他们都会对我说：“那么，策略在哪里？

Where's the document with the mission, vision, all that?" No, that's not what we do.

包含使命、愿景等所有内容的文件在哪里？”不，那不是我们做的。

We're doing an action agenda and the foundry is time-consuming and a bit expensive to some extent, and most of the times we've had foundries, they really help the company gather its wits and its resources and do something, which I'm very pleased with how the foundries work.

我们正在制定一项行动议程，而代工厂在某种程度上是耗时且有点昂贵的，大多数时候我们拥有代工厂，他们确实帮助公司聚集智慧和资源并做一些事情，我对代工厂的工作方式非常满意。

It's not so easy to figure out how to take the foundry concept and expand it.

弄清楚如何采用代工厂概念并将其扩展并不那么容易。

I've talked to a couple consulting firms about, "Well, the guys like learn how to do boundaries," and they say, "How does it work?

我和几家咨询公司谈过，“嗯，这些人喜欢学习如何划定界限，”他们说，“它是如何运作的？

It's one guy for three days?

一个人三天了？

That's not what we do.

那不是我们做的。

We do 10 guys for three years." It's not a business model, but that's a nice symmetry for me because they're not going to compete with me.

我们在三年内训练了 10 个人。”这不是一种商业模式，但这对我来说是一个很好的对称，因为他们不会与我竞争。

Lenny: I love that.

莱尼：我喜欢这个。

I feel like you're about to get a flood of interest and requests.

我觉得您将会收到大量的兴趣和请求。

For everyone else, make sure to buy Richard's books, I got them right here, The Crux, Good Strategy Bad Strategy.

对于其他人，请务必购买理查德的书，我就在这里买了《The Crux》、《Good Strategy Bad Strategy》。

Richard, again, thank you so much for being here.

理查德，再次非常感谢您来到这里。

Richard Rumelt: Lenny, thank you for a really pleasant time chatting.

理查德·鲁梅尔特：莱尼，谢谢你让我们度过了愉快的聊天时光。

Lenny: It was 1000% my pleasure.

莱尼：我百分百高兴。

Bye, everyone.

再见，大家。

Thank you so much for listening.

非常感谢您的聆听。

If you found this valuable, you can subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app.

如果您发现这很有价值，您可以在 Apple Podcasts、Spotify 或您最喜欢的播客应用程序上订阅该节目。

Also, please consider giving us a rating or leaving a review as that really helps other listeners find the podcast.

另外，请考虑给我们评分或留下评论，因为这确实有助于其他听众找到播客。

You can find all past episodes or learn more about the show at lennyspodcast.com.

您可以在 lennyspodcast.com 上找到所有过去的剧集或了解有关该节目的更多信息。

See you in the next episode.

下一集见。