Why ChatGPT will be the next big growth channel (and how to capitalize on it) | Brian Balfour
Lenny Rachitsky: Everyone's always complaining SEO's dead, it can't grow.
Lenny Rachitsky：每个人都在抱怨 SEO 已经死了，它无法增长。
Word of mouth is so hard.
口口相传太难了
Brian Balfour: All of the ingredients for new distribution platform are essentially happening.
Brian Balfour：新分销平台的所有要素基本上都在发生。
My prediction, the new distribution platform will be ChatGPT.
我预测，新的分发平台将是ChatGPT。
There's a bunch of signals that they're about to launch that.
有很多信号表明他们即将推出该产品。
Lenny Rachitsky: This is a huge opportunity for companies to get on it.
Lenny Rachitsky：这对公司来说是一个巨大的机会。
Brian Balfour: It ends up being a prisoner's dilemma.
布莱恩·贝尔福：这最终成为囚徒困境。
Don't trick yourself into thinking that you can't play the game.
不要欺骗自己，让自己认为自己不能玩这个游戏。
The cycles seem to be getting shorter and shorter, so you actually have a smaller amount of time.
周期似乎越来越短，所以你实际上拥有的时间越来越少。
If you don't do it, your competitors are going to go to the new platform and your customer expectations change.
如果您不这样做，您的竞争对手将转向新平台，您的客户期望也会发生变化。
There is no opting out of the game.
没有选择退出游戏的权利。
Lenny Rachitsky: This is the opportunity to disrupt an incumbent.
Lenny Rachitsky：这是颠覆现任者的机会。
Brian Balfour: If you're a late-stage company, you place multiple bets.
Brian Balfour：如果你是一家后期公司，你就会进行多次押注。
For startups, it's a totally different ballgame.
对于初创公司来说，这是一场完全不同的比赛。
You have to choose one and go all in.
你必须选择一个并全力以赴。
Lenny Rachitsky: Think about companies like Zynga that grew on Facebook and then became massive companies.
Lenny Rachitsky：想想像 Zynga 这样的公司，它们是在 Facebook 上成长起来的，然后成为了大公司。
Brian Balfour: Building a great product is one of those things that's necessary, but not sufficient.
Brian Balfour：打造出色的产品是必要的事情之一，但还不够。
And actually the separation is between those that build really great distribution.
实际上，区别在于那些构建真正出色的发行版的人之间。
Lenny Rachitsky: What would be the backup if not ChatGPT?
Lenny Rachitsky：如果不是 ChatGPT，备份会是什么？
Brian Balfour: My hypothesis of who's best-positioned would actually be...
布莱恩·贝尔福：我对谁处于最佳位置的假设实际上是......
Lenny Rachitsky: Today, my guest is Brian Balfour.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：今天，我的客人是布莱恩·贝尔福。
Brian is the founder and CEO of Reforge, a company that I've been a long-time fan and advocate of.
Brian 是 Reforge 的创始人兼首席执行官，我一直是这家公司的粉丝和拥护者。
Historically, Reforge has focused primarily on teaching courses on product and growth, but more recently they've transitioned to building their own products, including a product called Reforge Insights and a bunch more really cool stuff coming very soon.
从历史上看，Reforge 主要专注于教授有关产品和增长的课程，但最近他们已经转向构建自己的产品，包括名为 Reforge Insights 的产品以及即将推出的更多非常酷的东西。
Lenny Rachitsky: Prior to Reforge, Brian led growth at HubSpot, and over the course of his career, he has seen the rise and fall of every major distribution channel, including Facebook's ad platform, Google Ads and SEO, and the Apple App Store.
Lenny Rachitsky：在 Reforge 之前，Brian 领导了 HubSpot 的发展，在他的职业生涯中，他见证了每个主要分销渠道的兴衰，包括 Facebook 的广告平台、Google Ads 和 SEO 以及 Apple App Store。
Based on what he's seeing, he is predicting the emergence of a brand new and powerful distribution channel that will likely arise in the next six months, centered most likely around ChatGPT.
根据他所看到的情况，他预测未来六个月内可能会出现一个全新且强大的分销渠道，最有可能以 ChatGPT 为中心。
It is really rare for a new growth channel to open up.
新的增长通道的开辟实属罕见。
It's been a long time since the last one appeared, and the people who recognize this and hop on it early are the ones that reap the most rewards.
距离上一次出现已经过去很长时间了，那些认识到这一点并尽早加入的人才是获得最多回报的人。
So this is a huge deal.
所以这是一件大事。
Lenny Rachitsky: In this conversation, Brian shares what he's predicting, what he's seeing, why this is a big deal, and what you should be doing about it right now.
Lenny Rachitsky：在这次谈话中，Brian 分享了他的预测、他所看到的、为什么这是一件大事，以及你现在应该采取什么措施。
I highly recommend you listen to this full conversation and discuss the ramifications with your team.
我强烈建议您聆听完整的对话并与您的团队讨论其影响。
If you enjoy this podcast, don't forget to subscribe and follow it in your favorite podcasting app or YouTube.
如果您喜欢这个播客，请不要忘记订阅并在您最喜欢的播客应用程序或 YouTube 中关注它。
Also, if you become an annual subscriber of my newsletter, you get a bunch of incredible products for free for one year, including Lovable, Replit, Bolt, n8n, Linear, Superhuman, Descript, Wispr Flow, Gamma, Perplexity, Warp, Granola, Magic Patterns, Raycast, ChatPRD, and Mobbin.
另外，如果您成为我的时事通讯的年度订阅者，您可以在一年内免费获得一堆令人难以置信的产品，包括 Lovable、Replit、Bolt、n8n、Linear、Super human、Descript、Wispr Flow、Gamma、Perplexity、Warp、Granola、Magic Patterns、Raycast、ChatPRD 和 Mobbin。
Check it out at lennysnewsletter.com and click Product Pass.
请访问 lennysnewsletter.com 查看并单击 Product Pass。
With that, I bring you Brian Balfour.
接下来，我为您带来布莱恩·贝尔福。
Lenny Rachitsky: Today's episode is brought to you by DX, the developer intelligence platform designed by leading researchers.
Lenny Rachitsky：今天的节目是由 DX 为您带来的，DX 是由领先研究人员设计的开发者智能平台。
To thrive in the AI era, organizations need to adapt quickly, but many organization leaders struggle to answer pressing questions like which tools are working?
为了在人工智能时代蓬勃发展，组织需要快速适应，但许多组织领导者很难回答紧迫的问题，例如哪些工具有效？
How are they being used?
它们是如何使用的？
What's actually driving value?
真正推动价值的是什么？
DX provides the data and insights that leaders need to navigate this shift.
DX 提供领导者应对这一转变所需的数据和见解。
With DX, companies like Dropbox, Booking.com, Adyen, and Intercom get a deep understanding of how AI is providing value to their developers and what impact AI is having on engineering productivity.
借助 DX，Dropbox、Booking.com、Adyen 和 Intercom 等公司可以深入了解 AI 如何为其开发人员提供价值以及 AI 对工程生产力的影响。
To learn more, visit DX's website at getdx.com/lenny.
要了解更多信息，请访问 DX 网站：getdx.com/lenny。
That's getdx.com/lenny.
那是 getdx.com/lenny。
Lenny Rachitsky: This episode is brought to you by Basecamp.
Lenny Rachitsky：本集由 Basecamp 为您带来。
Basecamp is the famously straightforward project management system from 37signals.
Basecamp 是 37signals 出品的著名的简单项目管理系统。
Most project management systems are either inadequate or frustratingly complex, but Basecamp is refreshingly clear.
大多数项目管理系统要么不充分，要么复杂得令人沮丧，但 Basecamp 却清晰得令人耳目一新。
It's simple to get started, easy to organize, and Basecamp's visual tools help you see exactly what everyone is working on and how all work is progressing.
上手简单，易于组织，Basecamp 的可视化工具可帮助您准确了解每个人正在做什么以及所有工作的进展情况。
Keep all your files and conversations about projects directly connected to the projects themselves so that you always know where stuff is and you're not constantly switching contexts.
将有关项目的所有文件和对话直接连接到项目本身，以便您始终知道东西在哪里，并且不会经常切换上下文。
Running a business is hard.
经营企业很难。
Managing your project should be easy.
管理您的项目应该很容易。
I've been a long-time fan of what 37signals has been up to and I'm really excited to be sharing this with you.
我长期以来一直是 37signals 的粉丝，很高兴能与您分享这一点。
Sign up for a free account at basecamp.com/lenny.
在 basecamp.com/lenny 注册免费帐户。
Get somewhere with Basecamp.
与 Basecamp 一起去某个地方。
Brian, thank you so much for being here and welcome back to the podcast.
布莱恩，非常感谢您来到这里，欢迎回到播客。
Brian Balfour: Yeah, thanks for having me.
布莱恩·贝尔福：是的，谢谢你邀请我。
Excited for this one.
对此感到兴奋。
Lenny Rachitsky: I'm really excited to have you back.
Lenny Rachitsky：我很高兴你能回来。
We're just going to dive right in.
我们将直接投入其中。
Essentially, you've uncovered a really important trend or insight about how products are going to grow differently in the future, how growth is changing, and this is something that I think a lot of people need to hear, so I asked you to come on to share what you're seeing.
从本质上讲，你发现了一个非常重要的趋势或见解，即产品未来将如何以不同的方式增长，增长如何变化，这是我认为很多人需要听到的，所以我请你来分享你所看到的。
I also think this is just very timely.
我也认为这非常及时。
I think you said you're going to say in the next six months things might significantly change, so I'm really excited to do this.
我想你说过你会说在接下来的六个月里事情可能会发生重大变化，所以我真的很高兴这样做。
We're going to spend this whole conversation on this insight.
我们将把整个谈话花在这个见解上。
To set us up, what is just the big idea?
为了让我们成立，最重要的想法是什么？
What's the high-level idea here?
这里的高级想法是什么？
Brian Balfour: Just like you, I've spent my whole career just really passionate about startups, figuring out how to build products that win, that emerge in new markets, and one of the things that I have learned over time or one of the things you hear a lot from a lot of folks is, to win, you have to really build a great product.
Brian Balfour：就像你一样，我的整个职业生涯都对初创公司充满热情，弄清楚如何构建能够在新市场中脱颖而出的获胜产品，随着时间的推移，我学到的一件事或者你从很多人那里听到的一件事是，要获胜，你必须真正构建一个伟大的产品。
A lot of advice boils down to that.
很多建议都归结于此。
And one of the things that I feel like I've banged my head against the wall in a lot of ways in my career is actually telling people that building a great product is one of those things that's necessary, but not sufficient, and actually the separation is between those that build really great distribution.
在我的职业生涯中，我觉得自己在很多方面都在碰壁的一件事实际上是告诉人们，打造一款伟大的产品是必要的，但还不够，实际上，区别在于那些构建真正出色的发行版的人。
Brian Balfour: So this general partner, his name's Alex Rampell, he's at Andreessen Horowitz, actually wrote this blog post 10 years ago back in I think 2015.
Brian Balfour：这位普通合伙人，他的名字叫 Alex Rampell，来自 Andreessen Horowitz，实际上是在 10 年前（我记得是 2015 年）写了这篇博文。
In the essence of the blog post, he basically says one thing, which is that startups is a game of trying to get distribution before the incumbent can copy.
在博客文章的本质中，他基本上说了一件事，那就是初创公司是一场试图在现有企业复制之前获得分销的游戏。
It's this kind of concept of escape philosophy.
这就是一种逃避哲学的概念。
Brian Balfour: On that note, which I think os a very good summary of what you're trying to do in a startup and distribution, is that we're right now living in this environment where that game of startups getting distribution faster than the incumbent has gotten way harder in a lot of ways, and in some small cases has gotten a little bit easier.
Brian Balfour：关于这一点，我认为这是对你在初创公司和分销方面尝试做的事情的一个很好的总结，那就是我们现在生活在这样的环境中，初创公司比现有公司更快地获得分销的游戏在很多方面都变得更加困难，并且在某些小情况下变得更容易一些。
But if we think about this, the way that it's gotten harder and some of the things that probably a lot of founders or folks working on the growth side that probably feel is that, one is that incumbents can copy faster these days.
但如果我们考虑一下这一点，事情变得越来越困难，很多创始人或从事增长方面工作的人可能会感觉到，其中之一是现任者现在可以更快地复制。
That window that you have to get that escape velocity has actually shrunk.
你必须获得逃逸速度的窗口实际上已经缩小了。
It's decreased.
已经减少了。
Brian Balfour: The second thing is that a lot of the organic distribution that we've had, especially over the past few years, has really shrunk as well.
Brian Balfour：第二件事是，我们拥有的很多有机分销，特别是在过去几年，也确实萎缩了。
Everybody's talking about the decline of SEO and clicks declining, but you also see it in some other cases.
每个人都在谈论搜索引擎优化的衰退和点击量的下降，但你在其他一些情况下也看到了这一点。
A lot of these social platforms don't really let you send as much traffic to sites.
许多社交平台并不能真正让您向网站发送尽可能多的流量。
LinkedIn just changed their algorithm, which has really dropped organic distribution.
LinkedIn 刚刚改变了他们的算法，这确实降低了有机分布。
Obviously the Twitter-to-X, transition that happened, right?
显然 Twitter 到 X 的转变已经发生了，对吧？
TikTok's almost always been like that.
TikTok 几乎一直都是这样。
Brian Balfour: And then the third way that it's gotten harder is that AI's really good at writing software and code generation, and so everybody's feeling this infinite increase of competition, especially at the startup level.
Brian Balfour：第三个变得更加困难的方面是人工智能非常擅长编写软件和代码生成，因此每个人都感受到竞争的无限增加，尤其是在初创企业层面。
YC is pumping out six of the same thing every single cohort.
YC 在每个队列中都会推出六种相同的东西。
That's what it literally feels like.
这就是字面上的感觉。
Brian Balfour: So it's gotten way harder.
Brian Balfour：所以事情变得更加困难了。
This game, this escape velocity game has gotten a lot harder.
这个游戏，这个逃逸速度游戏变得更加困难。
It's gotten easier in some very exceptional cases like the Cursor or something where AI has been like the spark.
在一些非常特殊的情况下，比如光标或者人工智能像火花一样的东西，它变得更加容易。
I know you wrote the blog post about the race car engine, and I think you said there's the spark plug in the engine.
我知道您写了有关赛车发动机的博客文章，我想您说过发动机中有火花塞。
AI really created that, a new type of spark, a new type of interest of early adopters to fuel some new players in a short period of time.
人工智能确实创造了这种新型的火花，一种新型的早期采用者的兴趣，可以在短时间内激发一些新玩家。
So it's amazing to see something like Cursor overtake market share of something like GitHub Copilot in nine months or less.
因此，看到像 Cursor 这样的产品在九个月或更短的时间内超越了 GitHub Copilot 这样的产品的市场份额，真是令人惊讶。
That's how fast it happens.
这就是它发生的速度。
It's kind of crazy.
这有点疯狂。
Brian Balfour: But the main thing that people need to understand is, okay, well, if that's the game I'm playing, how to get to escape velocity before the incumbent?
布莱恩·贝尔福：但人们需要理解的主要事情是，好吧，好吧，如果这就是我正在玩的游戏，如何在现任者之前达到逃逸速度？
What are all the ways to do that and to really figure that out?
有哪些方法可以做到这一点并真正解决这个问题？
There's multiple ways that this can happen, but one of the major ways, one of the major, major ways that we always see is that this can happen when new distribution platforms emerge, because when new distribution platforms emerge, startups are usually the fastest to take advantage of them.
发生这种情况的方式有多种，但我们总是看到的主要方式之一，主要方式之一是，当新的分发平台出现时，这种情况就会发生，因为当新的分发平台出现时，初创公司通常是最快利用它们的。
It's slower for the incumbents to move.
现任者的行动速度较慢。
It gives startups this opportunity essentially to play this game.
它本质上为初创公司提供了玩这个游戏的机会。
Brian Balfour: Casey Winters wrote this blog post about two years ago, maybe 18 months ago, about the AI technology shift.
Brian Balfour：Casey Winters 大约两年前（大约 18 个月前）写了这篇关于人工智能技术转变的博文。
His key point was the AI technology shift has been a technology shift that has not come with a distribution shift yet.
他的关键点是，人工智能技术的转变是一种技术转变，但尚未伴随着分配的转变。
If you look historically, we've had a bunch of technology shifts from the internet to the cloud to mobile to social, all of these different types of things.
如果你回顾历史，我们经历了一系列技术转变，从互联网到云、移动到社交，所有这些不同类型的事物。
Some of them come with new distribution platforms, new ways to distribute products, and some of them don't, but the most powerful ones, the most impactful ones are the ones that do come with these new distribution platforms.
其中一些带有新的分销平台、新的产品分销方式，而另一些则没有，但最强大、最具影响力的是这些新分销平台带来的。
His second key point was that these two things don't actually happen at once.
他的第二个要点是这两件事实际上不会同时发生。
Usually you get the technology shift, then you get the distribution shift a little bit later.
通常你会经历技术转变，然后稍后你就会经历分销转变。
Brian Balfour: Now we're a couple years from that post.
Brian Balfour：距离那个职位还有几年的时间。
We are a couple years into AI technology shift, and one of the things that I am seeing is all of the conditions, all of the ingredients for a new distribution platform to emerge are essentially happening.
我们已经进入人工智能技术转变几年了，我看到的一件事是新分销平台出现的所有条件、所有要素基本上都在发生。
So I think we're at an inflection point where we're going to see this emerge really fast.
所以我认为我们正处于一个转折点，我们将看到这种情况很快出现。
Brian Balfour: The key thing for everybody to know is that as new distribution platforms emerge, they follow the same four-step cycle and it's a game that you're playing, that everybody's playing.
Brian Balfour：每个人都知道的关键一点是，随着新的发行平台的出现，它们遵循相同的四步循环，这是一个你正在玩的游戏，每个人都在玩。
Just like any game, you need to know the rules of the game.
就像任何游戏一样，您需要了解游戏规则。
You need to know the steps of the game in order to have any sort of opportunity to win.
您需要了解游戏的步骤才能有获胜的机会。
That's the thing that I've lived through once again, both painfully and also in good ways, and is something that I'm keeping my eye on and something that I've been talking about.
这就是我再次经历过的事情，无论是痛苦的还是好的，这是我一直在关注和谈论的事情。
Before we go into that four-step cycle, I figured I'll pause there to see if you have any follow-up questions on that.
在我们进入这个四步循环之前，我想我会暂停一下，看看您是否还有任何后续问题。
Lenny Rachitsky: Okay.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：好的。
This is amazing.
这太棒了。
Essentially what you're saying is we follow these ways to grow, there's SEO, there's paid growth, there's sales.
本质上你所说的是我们遵循这些增长方式，有搜索引擎优化，有付费增长，有销售。
All these channels have been around for a long time.
所有这些渠道已经存在很长时间了。
They're extremely saturated.
它们已经非常饱和了。
Everyone's always complaining SEO's dead, it can't grow, the SEO, anymore.
每个人总是抱怨 SEO 已经死了，它无法增长，SEO 不再了。
It can't grow.
它无法生长。
Word of mouth is so hard, there's so many amazing things now that's hard.
口碑太难了，现在有那么多神奇的东西，太难了。
Paid is so hard.
付费太难了
It's just all this money just-
只是这些钱而已——
Lenny Rachitsky: So all these saturated channels, and what you're saying is there's an emerging new channel that has not yet been saturated, and this is a huge opportunity for companies to get on it.
Lenny Rachitsky：所以所有这些饱和的渠道，你所说的是有一个尚未饱和的新兴渠道，这对公司来说是一个巨大的机会。
And you'll talk about timing because it's a little tricky to even know exactly when to go big on this.
你会谈论时机，因为要确切地知道什么时候该做这件事有点棘手。
Lenny Rachitsky: But that's a huge deal.
Lenny Rachitsky：但这很重要。
This has been a long time since there's a new way to grow that you can actually use as a lever for growth and not just hope for the best.
自从出现一种新的增长方式以来已经很长时间了，您可以将其真正用作增长的杠杆，而不仅仅是希望得到最好的结果。
Okay.
好的。
Lenny Rachitsky: Before you get into the cycles, do you want to tease what the answer is, just to give people a little hint, or do you want to keep it secret?
Lenny Rachitsky：在进入循环之前，您是否想透露答案是什么，只是为了给人们一点提示，还是想保守秘密？
Brian Balfour: Well, to be clear, okay, so my prediction, we don't have a clear winner yet.
Brian Balfour：嗯，要明确的是，好吧，我的预测是，我们还没有明确的赢家。
My prediction of the new distribution platform will be ChatGPT, in some ways that people probably already think it's happening in some ways that it won't, but the thing that is less important or that is more important than whether I have predicted the exact winner correctly, the thing that's more important is to understand the cycle and evaluate how to determine where you want to place your bets and how to place those bets, which I know we'll talk about.
我对新发行平台的预测将是ChatGPT，在某些方面，人们可能已经认为它会以某些方式发生，但实际上它不会发生，但与我是否正确预测了确切的获胜者相比，更不重要或更重要的事情是，更重要的是了解周期并评估如何确定你想在哪里下注以及如何下注，我知道我们将讨论这一点。
Brian Balfour: I could be wrong about the ChatGPT prediction and what's going to happen there.
Brian Balfour：我对 ChatGPT 的预测以及那里将发生的事情可能是错误的。
I think there's going to be two parts of it.
我认为这将分为两个部分。
There's going to be what they do with a ChatGPT search experience, but I think the bigger thing will be whatever they do with launching a third-party platform on top of ChatGPT, there's a bunch of signals that they're about to launch that, I'm pretty sure it's going to be ChatGPT.
他们将在 ChatGPT 搜索体验方面做一些事情，但我认为更重要的是他们在 ChatGPT 之上推出第三方平台，有很多信号表明他们即将推出该平台，我很确定这将是 ChatGPT。
Brian Balfour: The thing I'm way more sure about is that some new distribution platform will emerge and it will follow the same four-step cycle.
Brian Balfour：我更加确定的是，一些新的分销平台将会出现，并且它将遵循相同的四步循环。
That's the key.
这就是关键。
Could be wrong on the first piece, I am very confident on the second piece.
第一张可能是错的，但我对第二张很有信心。
Lenny Rachitsky: Okay.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：好的。
Excellent foreshadowing.
非常棒的伏笔。
I completely agree, if it's anything, it would be ChatGPT at this point.
我完全同意，如果有什么的话，那就是 ChatGPT。
Let's get into it.
让我们开始吧。
What are the cycles that platforms generally follow?
平台一般遵循哪些周期？
Brian Balfour: Yeah, and I'll give some examples of this, but let me explain the four steps of the cycle first and then we'll go through a bunch of examples of all those individual steps.
Brian Balfour：是的，我会举一些例子，但让我首先解释一下循环的四个步骤，然后我们将通过所有这些单独步骤的一堆示例。
The four steps are essentially, one is I call a Step Zero.
这四个步骤本质上是，其中一个我称之为“零步骤”。
It's the conditions of the market have been met.
市场的条件已经满足了。
Step One is about a moat, Step Two is about a platform opening, and Step Three is about the platform closing for control and monetization.
第一步是关于护城河，第二步是关于平台开放，第三步是关于平台关闭以实现控制和货币化。
Let me briefly explain each one.
让我简要解释一下每一项。
Brian Balfour: Step Zero is about the competitive market being met, the conditions being met, and there's a few part piece of this.
Brian Balfour：“零步”是关于满足竞争市场、满足条件，其中有一些部分。
One is that typically what happens is that there is consensus that there is going to be this new huge category.
其一，通常会发生的情况是，人们一致认为将会出现这个新的巨大类别。
Think social, think mobile, like all those types of things.
想想社交，想想移动，就像所有这些类型的事情一样。
In this case, these AI like chat platforms, like a ChatGPT or a clock.
在这种情况下，这些人工智能就像聊天平台，比如 ChatGPT 或时钟。
There's consensus about that, but there's no clear winner yet.
对此已达成共识，但目前还没有明显的赢家。
We typically have somewhere between five to seven major players really battling it out and they're all looking for what is the edge?
我们通常有五到七个主要参与者真正进行战斗，他们都在寻找优势是什么？
What is the thing that is going to help me win?
什么事情可以帮助我获胜？
Because all of these dynamics, in all the history, they either end up in monopolies or duopolies, and so the stakes are really large and so the competition is fierce.
因为所有这些动态，在整个历史上，它们要么最终形成垄断，要么形成双寡头垄断，因此赌注非常大，因此竞争也很激烈。
Brian Balfour: That's Step Zero.
布莱恩·贝尔福：这是零步。
I think we could all agree that we are in that mode right now.
我想我们都同意我们现在正处于这种模式。
We've got OpenAI battling with Claude, battling with Gemini, and Google with whatever Meta comes out with their new team, so on and so forth.
我们有 OpenAI 与 Claude 对抗，与 Gemini 对抗，还有 Google 与他们的新团队推出的任何 Meta 对抗，等等。
There's huge amounts of capital, there's consensus, all the types.
有大量的资本，有共识，各种类型。
They are in a fierce composition.
他们的构图很激烈。
That's Step Zero.
那是零步。
Brian Balfour: Step One is then these players, somebody essentially identifies whatever the moat is, the thing that is going to help build them defensibility and help them hit escape velocity and become that monopoly or duopoly in that single category.
布莱恩·贝尔福：第一步是这些玩家，有人本质上确定了护城河是什么，这将帮助他们建立防御性并帮助他们达到逃逸速度并成为该单一类别的垄断或双头垄断。
Once they figure out what that moat is, then they need to press the advantage.
一旦他们弄清楚护城河是什么，他们就需要发挥优势。
They need to figure out how to gather that moat as fast as humanly possible.
他们需要弄清楚如何尽可能快地收集护城河。
It tends to be that you can't do that by yourself, so you need the help of an ecosystem in order to gather more of that moat.
您往往无法自己做到这一点，因此您需要生态系统的帮助才能收集更多护城河。
Brian Balfour: That typically comes down to third-party content creators or app developers and other businesses.
Brian Balfour：这通常取决于第三方内容创建者或应用程序开发人员和其他企业。
So they all establish a third-party platform that has some incentives built in, and usually the value exchange is, hey, you develop on top of my platform, you add more use cases, more engagement, all of these things to my platform, and in exchange, I'm going to give you something in return.
所以他们都建立了一个内置了一些激励措施的第三方平台，通常的价值交换是，嘿，你在我的平台上开发，你添加更多的用例，更多的参与，所有这些东西到我的平台上，作为交换，我会给你一些回报。
Usually that thing that's in exchange is, I'm going to give you some new form of distribution for your application and for your business.
通常，作为交换，我将为您的应用程序和业务提供某种新的分发形式。
Brian Balfour: But what essentially happens over time is that we go into Step Three, which is the closing period, which is at some point, all of these companies end up starting to lock down the platform.
Brian Balfour：但随着时间的推移，本质上发生的是我们进入第三步，即关闭期，在某个时刻，所有这些公司最终开始锁定平台。
This tends to happen for reasons of monetization and growth.
这种情况往往是出于货币化和增长的原因而发生的。
They either competitively don't want somebody to use their own platform to disrupt themselves.
他们要么出于竞争性不希望有人使用他们自己的平台来扰乱自己。
We saw that in the early Twitter days with things like Vine and Periscope, shutting those things down unceremoniously, or they need to find ways to monetize at a deeper and deeper level because all these companies, they have to grow.
我们看到，在 Twitter 的早期，像 Vine 和 Periscope 这样的东西，毫不客气地关闭了这些东西，或者他们需要找到越来越深入的货币化方法，因为所有这些公司都必须成长。
Brian Balfour: Google's the classic example here of just more and more real estate has either been taken up by either ads or their own first-party applications.
Brian Balfour：谷歌就是一个典型的例子，越来越多的房地产要么被广告要么被他们自己的第一方应用程序占据。
That's the key is they close it down by doing by one of a few things.
关键是他们通过做几件事之一来关闭它。
They either shut it down entirely, two, they develop their own first-party applications to absorb the highest use cases, or three, they artificially depress the organic distribution that they gave you in the step prior to push you towards paid mechanisms in order to monetize.
他们要么完全关闭它，二，他们开发自己的第一方应用程序来吸收最高的用例，或者三，他们人为地压低他们在上一步中为您提供的有机分配，将您推向付费机制以实现货币化。
I think we should go through multiple examples here, but that's the core essence of the four steps.
我认为我们应该在这里讨论多个示例，但这就是四个步骤的核心本质。
I'll pause there.
我会在那里暂停。
Lenny Rachitsky: Awesome.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：太棒了。
So it's essentially figure out what's going to make, create defensibility long-term with your moat, bring everyone in, "Hey, everyone, welcome to Facebook," everyone joins Facebook and then, okay, and all the developers build on Facebook to bring in more people on Facebook and then they're like, "Okay, now you got to pay.
所以它本质上是弄清楚要做什么，用你的护城河建立长期的防御性，让每个人都进来，“嘿，大家，欢迎来到 Facebook，”每个人都加入 Facebook，然后，好吧，所有的开发人员都在 Facebook 上进行开发，以吸引更多的人使用 Facebook，然后他们会说，“好吧，现在你必须付钱了。
There's a toll," but you love this so much and you're so hooked to all your friends that you're here, you may as well stick around.
有通行费，”但你非常喜欢这个，而且你对你所有的朋友都很着迷，所以你就在这里，你不妨留下来。
Lenny Rachitsky: Amazing.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：太棒了。
Okay, so yeah, a few examples would be great.
好的，是的，举几个例子就很好了。
Brian Balfour: Yeah.
布莱恩·贝尔福：是的。
You just hit on the first one.
你刚刚击中了第一个。
This is the first one that I always think about because this is where I learned about this cycle very early in my career.
这是我一直思考的第一个问题，因为这是我在职业生涯早期了解到这个周期的地方。
One of my first companies was during the Facebook platform boom, social gaming, all of those applications, and I lived the full cycle in a very short period.
我的第一家公司之一是在 Facebook 平台、社交游戏和所有这些应用程序繁荣时期，我在很短的时间内经历了整个周期。
I lived the glory days and just the absolute horror days, and it was very painful, but this is exactly what happened.
我经历过辉煌的日子，也经历过绝对恐怖的日子，这非常痛苦，但这正是发生的事情。
Brian Balfour: Let's go through the four steps.
Brian Balfour：让我们完成四个步骤。
Step Zero.
零步。
Facebook was in a brutal battle with MySpace, Friendster and a few others.
Facebook 正在与 MySpace、Friendster 和其他一些公司进行残酷的战斗。
People forget this.
人们忘记了这一点。
People forget that there was actually a bunch of competitors at that time, and in fact those competitors were bigger than Facebook.
人们忘记了当时其实有很多竞争对手，而且事实上这些竞争对手比 Facebook 还要大。
They had more users back in 2007 when Facebook launched their third-party platform.
2007 年 Facebook 推出第三方平台时，他们拥有了更多用户。
But one of the key things is that Facebook was very early to the insight about the direct network effects in that there's going to create real lock-in that the more friends, the more of the global network that was on there, the more that it was just going to feed and hit this escape velocity.
但关键的事情之一是，Facebook 很早就洞察了直接网络效应，因为这将创造真正的锁定，朋友越多，全球网络越多，它就越能满足并达到这种逃逸速度。
Brian Balfour: At the time they launched their platform, I think they were maybe one-fourth, one-fifth the size of something like MySpace or even Friendster, Orkut, these are some of the names at that time, but they opened up their third-party platform.
Brian Balfour：当他们推出平台时，我认为他们的规模可能只有 MySpace 甚至 Friendster、Orkut 等当时的一些名称的四分之一、五分之一，但他们开放了第三方平台。
What was the value exchange?
价值交换是什么？
They went to third-party developers and they said, "Okay, we've created this canvas," they used to call it the canvas, and they were like, "You can put anything in the canvas that you want: an app, a game, whatever.
他们去找第三方开发人员，他们说，“好吧，我们已经创建了这个画布，”他们过去称之为画布，他们说，“你可以在画布上放置任何你想要的东西：一个应用程序，一个游戏，等等。
You can monetize in any way you want.
您可以通过任何您想要的方式获利。
We just want this sidebar real estate on the ads.
我们只想要广告上的侧边栏空间。
That's what we're really interested in." There was this mad gold rush on that Facebook.
这才是我们真正感兴趣的。” Facebook 上掀起了疯狂的淘金热。
Brian Balfour: Oh, sorry, the other part of that was, "Not only will you put it there, we're going to give you access to all of these notification channels and feed to get distribution for your application." That was the other piece of it.
Brian Balfour：哦，抱歉，另一部分是，“您不仅会将其放在那里，我们还将让您访问所有这些通知渠道和源，以便分发您的应用程序。”那是它的另一部分。
You had this mad rush of developers coming in and you had this huge social application, social gaming boom.
开发人员疯狂涌入，社交应用、社交游戏蓬勃发展。
People just grew incredibly virally very fast, but eventually, essentially what happened over time is they kept peeling back that value exchange.
人们的增长速度非常快，令人难以置信，但最终，随着时间的推移，他们不断剥离价值交换。
Brian Balfour: They first were like, "Ah, actually those dollars that you're making inside that canvas area, well, we want a percentage of that." So they changed that.
Brian Balfour：他们首先会说，“啊，实际上你在画布区域内赚到的钱，我们想要其中的一部分。”所以他们改变了这一点。
And then they figured out their ad systems and then they started peeling back.
然后他们找到了自己的广告系统，然后开始剥离。
They started suppressing access to all of the organic channels that they had.
他们开始压制对他们拥有的所有有机渠道的访问。
Eventually, they went all the way towards absorbing the highest use case into their own first-party platform, things like first-party applications, things like events, photos, all those types of things, and basically shut down the platform for dead.
最终，他们一路将最高的用例吸收到自己的第一方平台中，比如第一方应用程序、事件、照片等所有这些类型的东西，并基本上关闭了平台。
Brian Balfour: These companies that have basically built on top of this platform, the other thing is by the time they started closing all those things down, all those competitors that we talked about, they were so far ahead at that point because they had built off the back of all these developers coming, adding use cases, bringing more users onto the platform, identifying that moat.
Brian Balfour：这些公司基本上是建立在这个平台之上的，另一件事是，当他们开始关闭所有这些东西时，我们谈到的所有竞争对手，他们当时遥遥领先，因为他们在所有这些开发人员的到来的基础上建立了基础，添加了用例，将更多用户引入该平台，确定了护城河。
They were so far ahead, it didn't matter.
他们已经领先了很多，这并不重要。
It didn't matter what the other folks did at that point, and that's what really gives you confidence to start closing down.
其他人当时做了什么并不重要，这才是真正让你有信心开始关闭的原因。
But there's so many other examples of this if we go through it.
但如果我们仔细研究一下，还有很多其他这样的例子。
Lenny Rachitsky: Just before you give other examples, just something I'll highlight here.
Lenny Rachitsky：在你给出其他例子之前，我先强调一下。
One is the moat they identified in theory was the friend graph, I imagine?
一是他们在理论上确定的护城河是朋友图，我想？
Lenny Rachitsky: Just once we have all your friends, you're not going to want to go anywhere.
Lenny Rachitsky：一旦我们拥有了你所有的朋友，你就不会想去任何地方。
I imagine it's also important to note, this is a natural thing that would happen if you build the thing and it grows and you're like, "Oh, maybe we should change strategy." I imagine not everyone even knows this is what will happen and they organically evolve their strategy, or do you think everyone's just like, "This is now going to be our plan, Step 1, 2, 3, 4?"
我想值得注意的是，如果你构建了这个东西并且它不断发展，你会想，“哦，也许我们应该改变策略”，这是很自然的事情。我想并不是每个人都知道这将会发生什么，他们会有机地发展他们的策略，或者你认为每个人都会说，“这现在将是我们的计划，第 1、2、3、4 步？”
Brian Balfour: I think a different version of that question is I think some people could sit here and interpret this as all these folks are evil.
布莱恩·贝尔福：我认为这个问题的另一个版本是，我认为有些人可以坐在这里并将其解释为所有这些人都是邪恶的。
That's not what I'm saying.
我不是这个意思。
That's actually not what I'm saying.
其实我不是这个意思。
I want to be very clear on that, because I think this cycle happens because of competitive and capitalistic dynamics and pressures.
我想澄清这一点，因为我认为这种循环的发生是由于竞争和资本主义的动态和压力。
It's the same environment that enables creating amazing new companies here in the US.
同样的环境也可以在美国创建令人惊叹的新公司。
Brian Balfour: And there's two sides of the coin.
Brian Balfour：硬币有两个方面。
You go through this cycle because it's a competitive environment.
你会经历这个周期，因为这是一个竞争环境。
You're trying to figure out how to beat competitors, and this is one of the strategies to beat competitors.
你试图找出如何击败竞争对手，这是击败竞争对手的策略之一。
But at some point you just have to continue growing.
但到了某个时候，你就必须继续成长。
You have to grow those dollars.
你必须增加这些美元。
The market does not reward flat companies, if anybody's noticed.
如果有人注意到的话，市场不会奖励扁平化的公司。
You have to keep growing, and so they have to keep finding ways to grow as well as prevent their own disruption.
你必须不断成长，因此他们必须不断寻找成长的方法并防止自身受到干扰。
TThey can get so big and they can give access, so much access of distribution to new developers, they don't want to enable their own disruption as well as they need to keep growing.
他们可以发展得如此之大，并且可以向新开发人员提供如此多的分发机会，他们不想造成自己的破坏，但他们需要不断增长。
Brian Balfour: My guess is anybody who is sitting in their shoes owning their platform is going to follow the exact same playbook and the exact same reasoning.
Brian Balfour：我的猜测是，任何拥有自己平台的人都会遵循完全相同的剧本和完全相同的推理。
Look, sometimes it happens also because it actually is the best thing for the user.
看，有时会发生这种情况也是因为这实际上对用户来说是最好的事情。
Facebook's channels did get super spammy and all of those things, and that was part of the reason they'd play this, but let's be honest, it wasn't the only reason.
Facebook 的频道确实充斥着超级垃圾邮件和所有这些事情，这是他们玩这个游戏的部分原因，但说实话，这不是唯一的原因。
A lot of it was for these other reasons.
其中很大一部分是由于其他原因。
I don't think it's evil.
我不认为这是邪恶的。
You just need to know how to play the game.
您只需要知道如何玩游戏即可。
That's competition, that's business.
这就是竞争，这就是商业。
They're playing you, so you need to play them.
他们在玩弄你，所以你需要玩弄他们。
That might be a little sadistic or something, but that is business.
这可能有点虐待狂之类的，但这就是生意。
You're in a game of competition.
你们正处于一场竞争游戏中。
Lenny Rachitsky: Essentially, the incentives are pointing you in this direction.
Lenny Rachitsky：本质上，激励措施正在引导你朝这个方向发展。
Capitalism, they say capitalism works, and so it'll pull everyone in this direction even if maybe they want to avoid it.
资本主义，他们说资本主义是有效的，因此它将把每个人拉向这个方向，即使他们可能想避免它。
Let's do a couple more examples.
让我们再举几个例子。
Brian Balfour: Yeah, we'll go through them quick.
Brian Balfour：是的，我们会快速浏览它们。
I think everybody's probably...
我想大家可能都...
Google's an interesting one because it played out over a much longer period of time.
谷歌是一个有趣的例子，因为它经历了更长的一段时间。
Facebook happened over the course of about in five-ish years, something like that.
Facebook 的发展经历了大约五年左右的时间，类似的事情。
Google did it very slowly over years, but same thing, early massive competition against Yahoo, I don't know, AltaVista, Lycos, you name them all.
谷歌多年来做得非常缓慢，但同样的事情，早期与雅虎的大规模竞争，我不知道，AltaVista，Lycos，凡是你能想到的。
That was even before my time.
那甚至是在我的时代之前。
They were first to really identify these data moats and incentivizing essentially web developers, content folks to optimize for their search algorithms, create this great distribution mechanism.
他们首先真正识别出这些数据护城河，并激励网络开发人员、内容人员优化他们的搜索算法，创建这种伟大的分发机制。
Everybody's building content and everything for them, but over time, slowly but surely they did two things.
每个人都在为他们构建内容和一切，但随着时间的推移，他们缓慢但肯定地做了两件事。
Brian Balfour: One is more and more that real estate became ads that they were monetizing, so they're suppressing organic distribution in order to push people towards the ads, as well as absorbing a bunch of the highest value first-party use cases, things like travel as an example, or even restaurant search and all those types of things.
Brian Balfour：其中一个问题是，房地产越来越成为他们货币化的广告，因此他们抑制自然分发，以推动人们转向广告，并吸收一堆最高价值的第一方用例，例如旅行，甚至餐厅搜索和所有这些类型的东西。
The former Yelp CEO and founder has been out there saying a lot of things about these practices.
Yelp 前首席执行官兼创始人对这些做法发表了很多看法。
So, same exact cycle.
所以，同样的循环。
Brian Balfour: Mobile went through the exact same cycle.
Brian Balfour：移动行业经历了完全相同的周期。
iOS created a new distribution mechanism.
iOS创建了一种新的分发机制。
They had a ton of competition among different phones when they first started on.
刚开始时，他们在不同的手机之间进行了大量的竞争。
They found the defensibility was more about the apps, the data and all the developers, created the App Store, all of these types of things, but over time, we've seen more and more restrictions there on that front.
他们发现防御性更多地与应用程序、数据和所有开发人员有关，创建了应用程序商店，所有这些类型的东西，但随着时间的推移，我们看到这方面的限制越来越多。
Brian Balfour: And then most recently, we've seen this happen in smaller places, too.
Brian Balfour：最近，我们也看到这种情况在较小的地方发生。
LinkedIn, as an example, first went through this wave with company pages.
以 LinkedIn 为例，它首先通过公司页面经历了这一浪潮。
They were like, "Ah, companies, come on, promote your company page.
他们就像是，“啊，公司，来吧，推广你的公司页面。
Bring in more users, all that type of stuff, and then get all these followers." And then of course you get almost no distribution now through your company page because they're pushing you towards ads.
引入更多用户，所有类型的东西，然后获得所有这些追随者。”当然，您现在几乎无法通过公司页面获得任何分发，因为它们正在将您推向广告。
And then they recently just did this with personal profiles, too, which is they really boosted distribution for individuals to create content for that platform.
然后他们最近也对个人资料做了同样的事情，这确实促进了个人为该平台创建内容的分发。
They then introduced the thought leader ad format, a way to monetize those individual posts, and now you've seen them really pull back on that organic distribution.
然后他们引入了思想领袖广告格式，这是一种将这些单独的帖子货币化的方式，现在你已经看到他们真正撤回了这种自然分发。
Brian Balfour: So this happens in big forms and it happens even in smaller use cases as well, but once again, the steps of the cycle are exactly the same.
Brian Balfour：所以这种情况会发生在大的形式中，甚至在较小的用例中也会发生，但同样，循环的步骤是完全相同的。
The key part about this, too, is that the broad trend is that the cycles seem to be getting shorter and shorter and shorter and shorter, so you actually have a smaller amount of time to play the game.
这方面的关键部分还在于，总体趋势是周期似乎越来越短，因此您实际上玩游戏的时间越来越少。
Lenny Rachitsky: Okay, and the big a-ha here is, yes, this will end maybe not great for you, but there's this magical period when they're open to customers and users where you can grow like crazy because they want everyone to come and they give you a distribution.
Lenny Rachitsky：好的，这里最大的惊喜是，是的，这可能会结束，这对你来说可能不太好，但有一个神奇的时期，当他们向客户和用户开放时，你可以疯狂地成长，因为他们希望每个人都来，他们给你分配。
What you're saying essentially is ChatGPT, potentially some other platform, maybe is about to enter this moat.
你所说的本质上是 ChatGPT，可能是其他一些平台，也许即将进入这条护城河。
Brian Balfour: Yeah.
布莱恩·贝尔福：是的。
Well, before we get to ChatGPT, I think the natural reaction when you first realize this is, "Screw them, I'm not playing that game." That's what I feel like most people, how they react.
好吧，在我们讨论 ChatGPT 之前，我认为当你第一次意识到这一点时，自然的反应是，“管他们的，我不玩那个游戏。”这就是我对大多数人的感受和反应。
Because the unfortunate truth is that a lot of companies don't predict that last stage and end up in a really hard position.
因为不幸的事实是，许多公司没有预测到最后阶段，最终陷入了非常艰难的境地。
So many companies got completely killed during the crash of the Facebook social platform.
Facebook社交平台崩溃期间，很多公司都被彻底消灭了。
Apple's 30% tax basically destroyed a bunch of types of applications and business models because you feel like it just wasn't margin-effective.
苹果 30% 的税收基本上摧毁了一系列类型的应用程序和商业模式，因为你觉得它没有利润效益。
So many companies built on SEO loops that are in serious, serious trouble right now if that's their only channel.
很多公司建立在搜索引擎优化循环上，如果这是他们唯一的渠道，那么他们现在就陷入了严重的麻烦。
So all these things.
所以所有这些事情。
Brian Balfour: I think the natural reaction is, why would I play this game if I'm a startup or a company?
Brian Balfour：我认为自然的反应是，如果我是一家初创公司或一家公司，为什么我会玩这个游戏？
You can even see this with ChatGPT, as an example.
作为示例，您甚至可以使用 ChatGPT 来查看这一点。
They just launched these deep research connectors.
他们刚刚推出了这些深度研究连接器。
One of them was my former company, HubSpot.
其中之一是我以前的公司 HubSpot。
If you sat inside HubSpot and you were just thinking in isolation, you would be like, well, why would I want to make all of my data accessible through ChatGPT and have all of the usage you start to accrue there?
如果您坐在 HubSpot 中，只是孤立地思考，您会想，好吧，为什么我要通过 ChatGPT 访问我的所有数据，并让您在那里开始积累所有的使用量？
That doesn't really make sense in isolation.
孤立地看，这确实没有意义。
But we don't operate in isolation.
但我们并不是孤立运作的。
Once again, we operate in a competitive environment.
我们再次在竞争激烈的环境中运营。
Brian Balfour: What's going to happen is that if you don't do it, your competitors are going to certainly go to the new platform and your customer expectations change, and you have to rise to those customers' expectations.
Brian Balfour：将会发生的情况是，如果您不这样做，您的竞争对手肯定会转向新平台，并且您的客户期望会发生变化，而您必须满足这些客户的期望。
They're going to start expecting you to be in these new experiences and all these things.
他们将开始期待你参与这些新的体验和所有这些事情。
It ends up being a prisoner's dilemma, which is, there is no opting out of the game.
最终陷入囚徒困境，即没有选择退出游戏。
You have to play the game.
你必须玩游戏。
So it's better to be early than to be super late to this game, especially, especially if you are a startup.
因此，在这场游戏中，早点总比晚点好，特别是如果你是一家初创公司。
That's the key opportunity.
这是关键的机会。
Brian Balfour: We will talk a little bit more about how to play the game more, but it's better to be early as well as, then the key, the harder part about it is anticipating that last stage of the cycle and figuring out how to sequence away from something before that last cycle comes.
Brian Balfour：我们将更多地讨论如何更多地玩游戏，但最好早点，然后关键，更困难的部分是预测周期的最后阶段，并弄清楚如何在最后一个周期到来之前按顺序远离某些东西。
I think that's the key part, but let me pause there and then I'll talk a little bit about ChatGPT and some of my reasoning behind that.
我认为这是关键部分，但让我暂停一下，然后我会谈谈 ChatGPT 以及我背后的一些推理。
Lenny Rachitsky: Cool.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：酷。
So what you're saying is not only is there going to be this big opportunity to grow, if you don't take advantage of it, somebody in your space will.
所以你所说的是，不仅会有这个巨大的成长机会，如果你不利用它，你所在领域的其他人也会利用它。
It's not only there's an opportunity, but this is something you need to do because you might miss the boat.
这不仅是一个机会，而且是你需要做的事情，因为你可能会错失良机。
Lenny Rachitsky: I think about companies like Zynga that grew on Facebook and then became massive companies.
Lenny Rachitsky：我想到像 Zynga 这样的公司，它们在 Facebook 上成长，然后成为大公司。
If they didn't do that, they would've missed the boat, someone else would've eaten that lunch.
如果他们不这样做，他们就会错失良机，其他人就会吃掉那顿午餐。
I don't know, I'm thinking about the Technology Bros podcast on Twitter right now, TBPN, where they basically figured out on Twitter you can create this livestream and you see it all day in your Twitter feed just like, hey, they're broadcasting, and it's a really cool distribution channel.
我不知道，我现在正在考虑 Twitter 上的 Technology Bros 播客，TBPN，他们基本上发现在 Twitter 上你可以创建这个直播，你整天都会在你的 Twitter feed 中看到它，就像，嘿，他们在广播，这是一个非常酷的分发渠道。
Lenny Rachitsky: I think there's a big call to arms here almost of just the opportunities emerging and you basically need to pay attention.
Lenny Rachitsky：我认为这里有一个重大的战斗号召，几乎只是出现的机会，你基本上需要注意。
You can't opt out.
你不能选择退出。
Brian Balfour: Look, let's go through this cycle.
Brian Balfour：听着，让我们回顾一下这个周期。
Right now we're in that competitive environment.
现在我们正处于这样的竞争环境中。
Like we said, all those players we talked about, ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, all these folks, they are battling it out.
就像我们说的，我们谈到的所有这些玩家，ChatGPT、Claude、Gemini，所有这些人，他们都在战斗。
We've seen this with the Talent Awards especially over the past month or so.
我们在人才奖中看到了这一点，特别是在过去一个月左右的时间里。
There's no clear winner yet, but there's consensus around the category.
目前还没有明确的赢家，但对该类别已达成共识。
Brian Balfour: The second thing is then, okay, what's the moat?
Brian Balfour：第二件事是，护城河是什么？
Has the moat been identified?
护城河已经确定了吗？
And who seems to have identified it the first or as furthest along?
谁似乎是第一个或最远发现它的？
My hypothesis, and I think there's a lot more consensus around this now than there might've even been three months ago, is that the moat is about context and memory.
我的假设是，护城河与背景和记忆有关，而且我认为现在对此的共识比三个月前要多得多。
These models by themselves, if you compare them side by side, they generate the same result, and so the actual difference-maker is which one has more of your context, because it's the context plus the model that produces the best output, and then that starts to accrue to this loop around memory.
这些模型本身，如果你并排比较它们，它们会生成相同的结果，因此真正的区别在于哪个模型具有更多的上下文，因为上下文加上模型会产生最佳输出，然后开始累积到内存的循环中。
The more you use it, the more it's able to store a memory around you, which feeds more personalized context, which produces better outputs.
您使用它的次数越多，它就越能够存储您周围的记忆，从而提供更个性化的上下文，从而产生更好的输出。
It ends up being another one of those flywheels, another one of those loops.
它最终成为那些飞轮中的另一个，那些循环中的另一个。
Brian Balfour: If you look at who's farthest on this, it definitely is ChatGPT.
Brian Balfour：如果你看看谁在这方面走得最远，那肯定是 ChatGPT。
They were the first ones to memory.
他们是最先被记忆的。
They've been investing a lot in these different types of data connectors, essentially context connectors, gathering all of this context, so you can really start to see it in the usage.
他们在这些不同类型的数据连接器（本质上是上下文连接器）上投入了大量资金，收集所有这些上下文，以便您可以真正开始在使用中看到它。
Brian Balfour: The second thing is, and one of the pushbacks I've gotten on my prediction has been, well, what about Google and Gemini?
Brian Balfour：第二件事是，我的预测遇到的阻力之一是，谷歌和 Gemini 怎么样？
They have so much distribution through Chrome and all of this other stuff.
他们通过 Chrome 和所有其他东西进行了如此多的分发。
Deedy Das, who's a VC at Menlo Ventures, actually published some good data on retention of all of these different ones.
Menlo Ventures 的风险投资人迪迪·达斯 (Deedy Das) 实际上发布了一些关于保留所有这些不同的人的良好数据。
Brian Balfour: I think the second reason I predict ChatGPT is if you look at history once again, it was never the person who had the biggest distribution at the moment of time.
Brian Balfour：我认为我预测 ChatGPT 的第二个原因是，如果你再次回顾历史，它从来都不是当时拥有最大分布的人。
It was the one that had the best retention and engagement.
这是保留率和参与度最好的一个。
Google had the best retention and engagement over the others.
与其他公司相比，谷歌的保留率和参与度最高。
Facebook was smaller, but had way better retention and engagement over the others, so on and so forth.
Facebook 规模较小，但比其他公司拥有更好的保留率和参与度，等等。
Brian Balfour: The data that Deedy published clearly show that both the retention curves, which I know you and I have both written about at exhaustion, level off at significant portions higher than all the other platforms, as well as those retention curves have been shifting up dramatically over time, you can start to see the effects of memory.
Brian Balfour：Deedy 发布的数据清楚地表明，记忆力曲线（我知道你和我都在精疲力尽时写过）在高于所有其他平台的显着部分上趋于平稳，并且这些记忆力曲线随着时间的推移而急剧上升，你可以开始看到记忆的影响。
They have the very elusive smile curve, the ones that you just like.
她们有着难以捉摸的微笑曲线，正是你喜欢的。
I've seen all of those dynamics very few times in my career, and they tend to be the folks like Slack and all of the big winners.
在我的职业生涯中，我很少见过所有这些动态，而且他们往往是像 Slack 这样的人以及所有的大赢家。
It's just so elusive
实在是太难以捉摸
Lenny Rachitsky: The smile curve, just to people who don't know what that is, is essentially retention goes up over time, it goes down a little bit, and then you come back to it and you use it more.
Lenny Rachitsky：对于那些不知道那是什么的人来说，微笑曲线本质上是保留率随着时间的推移而上升，然后下降一点，然后你回到它并更多地使用它。
Brian Balfour: Yeah, that's right, and it's usually the result of some type of network of factor or something else, and it's an early indicator that that platform is on a trajectory to hit escape velocity.
布莱恩·贝尔福：是的，没错，这通常是某种类型的因素网络或其他因素的结果，这是该平台正处于达到逃逸速度的轨道上的早期指标。
Brian Balfour: The third piece is that, and they haven't really hidden these, but there's all sorts of signals that they're about to launch a third-party platform.
Brian Balfour：第三点是，他们并没有真正隐藏这些，但有各种各样的信号表明他们即将推出第三方平台。
They've been hiring for a bunch of roles.
他们一直在招聘很多职位。
I've seen multiple postings on product manager engineering roles, all that kind of stuff for, quote, unquote, "agent platform" and all those pieces.
我看过很多关于产品经理工程角色的帖子，所有类似的东西，引用、取消引用、“代理平台”等等。
It feels pretty inevitable that one of these players will need to launch a third-party platform in order to serve all the possible use cases on these tools.
这些参与者之一将需要启动第三方平台，以便为这些工具的所有可能的用例提供服务，这感觉是不可避免的。
There's going to be some value exchange, which is like, hey, for your agent to be effective, you probably need access to the context and memory and distribution, so there'll be some value which is, "Integrate to us and we'll give you those three things which is going to drive more users and more usage," and we're going to go through the steps of the cycle.
将会有一些价值交换，就像，嘿，为了让你的代理有效，你可能需要访问上下文、内存和分发，所以会有一些价值，“集成到我们中，我们将为你提供这三件事，这将推动更多的用户和更多的使用，”我们将完成这个周期的步骤。
Brian Balfour: You can already see this.
Brian Balfour：你已经可以看到这一点了。
They're starting to form preferred partnerships with some of the bigger players, which paves the way for smaller third-party players.
他们开始与一些较大的参与者建立优先合作伙伴关系，这为较小的第三方参与者铺平了道路。
It lends credibility to the platform.
它为平台带来了可信度。
It's like, well, if HubSpot and XYZ are doing it, then I should probably do it, too.
就好像，如果 HubSpot 和 XYZ 正在这样做，那么我可能也应该这样做。
It's like that type of mentality.
类似这样的心态。
But that's why I think out of all of these platforms, ChatGPT has the best shot right now.
但这就是为什么我认为在所有这些平台中，ChatGPT 目前拥有最好的机会。
Brian Balfour: And then, a bunch of folks are always like, "Well, what about Claude?
布莱恩·贝尔福：然后，一群人总是会说，“那么，克劳德呢？
I really like Claude.
我真的很喜欢克劳德。
I use Claude." Well, the problem with that is I think ChatGPT at this point has at least a 10x difference on MAU.
我用克劳德。”好吧，问题是我认为 ChatGPT 目前的 MAU 至少有 10 倍的差异。
If you're a developer and you're comparing those two platforms and you're looking at it and you're like, "Well, ChatPT has 10x the number of users and better retention engagement," it's like, what's the logical choice of which one you're going to prioritize your scarce resources on?
如果您是一名开发人员，在比较这两个平台时，您会想，“嗯，ChatPT 的用户数量是其 10 倍，并且保留率更高”，那么您将优先考虑稀缺资源的逻辑选择是什么？
Brian Balfour: Those are just some of the reasons that my prediction is on ChatGPT.
Brian Balfour：这些只是我在 ChatGPT 上进行预测的部分原因。
In the blog post that I wrote about this, I actually then played my own devil's advocate and said, "Okay, here are some reasons why it might not be ChatGPT," but I think we're in that part of the cycle.
在我写的有关此问题的博客文章中，我实际上扮演了自己的魔鬼代言人并说：“好吧，这里有一些原因说明它可能不是 ChatGPT”，但我认为我们正处于周期的这一部分。
That's my prediction.
这是我的预测。
I might be wrong in the prediction of ChatGPT, but I really think, I feel very confident we're going to see this cycle play out again.
我对 ChatGPT 的预测可能是错误的，但我真的认为，我非常有信心我们将看到这个周期再次上演。
Lenny Rachitsky: Two follow-up questions here.
Lenny Rachitsky：这里有两个后续问题。
One is, what would be the backup if it's not ChatGPT?
一是，如果不是 ChatGPT，备份会是什么？
It sounds like it might be Gemini or Google?
听起来可能是 Gemini 或 Google？
Brian Balfour: My hypothesis of who's best-positioned but is not executing on it right now would actually be Apple-
Brian Balfour：我的假设是，谁处于最佳位置但现在没有执行它，实际上是苹果 -
Brian Balfour: ...
布莱恩·贝尔福：...
because through the devices, they basically can see everything.
因为通过设备，他们基本上可以看到一切。
They have the ultimate view into your context.
他们对您的背景有最终的了解。
They're sitting at that level But I don't know what they're doing.
他们坐在那个水平但我不知道他们在做什么。
From an execution standpoint, maybe they're going to surprise us with something crazy magical, but we haven't seen any external signals around this.
从执行的角度来看，也许他们会用一些疯狂的魔法给我们带来惊喜，但我们还没有看到任何与此相关的外部信号。
That's probably just based on what real estate and where people live in the stack would own.
这可能只是基于房地产以及人们居住在堆栈中的位置。
Brian Balfour: And then, I think right behind that, I would probably put Google because of owning the context of things like email and the distribution points of search and Chrome and Android and those types of pieces.
Brian Balfour：然后，我认为在这之后，我可能会选择 Google，因为它拥有电子邮件等内容以及搜索、Chrome 和 Android 等内容的分发点。
A lot of people point to them, but my experience with all of their products, going back to the retention engagement thing, is that if we could take a look inside their metrics, I think what we would see is a bunch of fly-by users in their mouse.
很多人都提到了它们，但我对他们所有产品的经验，回到保留参与度的问题上，如果我们能够深入了解他们的指标，我认为我们会看到一群鼠标中飞过的用户。
They're sprinkling the Gemini bucket everywhere.
他们把双子座水桶洒得到处都是。
I've literally clicked on it accidentally multiple times.
我确实多次不小心点击了它。
My guess is a huge portion of their mouse is exactly that of what's happening right now.
我的猜测是他们的鼠标的很大一部分正是现在正在发生的事情。
Look, they just acquired a very talented team from Windsurf and from-
看，他们刚刚从 Windsurf 和 - 那里获得了一支非常有才华的团队
Lenny Rachitsky: And just the team.
Lenny Rachitsky：还有团队。
Just the team, part of the team.
只是团队，团队的一部分。
Brian Balfour: Yeah.
布莱恩·贝尔福：是的。
We'll see.
我们拭目以待。
Things are changing dramatically on a week-to-week basis, so we'll see if they're able to press those advantages in a very clear way.
情况每周都在发生巨大变化，因此我们将看看他们是否能够以非常明确的方式发挥这些优势。
But I think the window is very small for them if ChatGPT plays their cards right, because they clearly have the escape velocity right now.
但我认为，如果 ChatGPT 发挥得当，窗口对他们来说非常小，因为他们现在显然有逃逸速度。
If they just keep pressing that advantage in the right way, I think it's going to be very hard for Google to counter in the amount of time that's left
如果他们继续以正确的方式压制这一优势，我认为谷歌将很难在剩下的时间里反击
Lenny Rachitsky: On the Claude piece, I'll just throw this nugget out, I had Mike Krieger on the podcast, Head of Product, CPO, at Anthropic, and asked him just, "You're losing to ChatGPT.
Lenny Rachitsky：关于 Claude 的文章，我就扔掉这个金块，我在播客上邀请了 Anthropic 的产品主管、CPO 迈克·克里格 (Mike Krieger)，并问他：“你输给了 ChatGPT。
How do you approach the future of Claude?" He very specifically said, "Yes, they've caught lightning in a bottle.
你如何看待克劳德的未来？”他非常明确地说：“是的，他们在瓶子里捕捉到了闪电。
This is just going to win based on what I've seen at Instagram.
根据我在 Instagram 上看到的情况来看，这肯定会获胜。
So we are specifically focusing on what is Anthropic and Claude incredibly good at, which is developer tools, coding, backend stuff." So they're actually leaning more and more into that.
因此，我们特别关注 Anthropic 和 Claude 非常擅长的领域，即开发人员工具、编码和后端内容。”所以他们实际上越来越倾向于这一点。
If you've seen the revenue recently, they're making, I don't know, approaching 10 billion a year or some crazy amount of money.
如果你最近看到过他们的收入，我不知道，他们每年的收入接近 100 亿美元，或者说是一些疯狂的数字。
They're actually doing super well, just in a different use case.
他们实际上做得非常好，只是在不同的用例中。
Brian Balfour: I'm glad you mentioned this because this brings up something that we skipped, which is, there are smaller platforms that have existed and will also emerge in this environment as well, and that's what you're alluding to.
Brian Balfour：我很高兴你提到这一点，因为这提出了我们跳过的一些东西，即已经存在并且也将在这种环境中出现的较小平台，这就是你所提到的。
This tends to happen is things end up growing into more niches.
当事情最终发展到更多的利基市场时，这种情况往往会发生。
Even if you look at social, like LinkedIn emerged as a subset of the social world, but even on these smaller platforms, these new distribution channels, they go through the same cycle.
即使你看看社交媒体，比如 LinkedIn 作为社交世界的一个子集出现，但即使在这些较小的平台、这些新的分销渠道上，它们也会经历相同的周期。
Brian Balfour: I'll give something, really a very opposite example of the ones that I gave.
Brian Balfour：我会给出一些与我给出的例子完全相反的例子。
Look at the platform Udemy.
看看 Udemy 平台。
They are a platform for course creators.
他们是课程创建者的平台。
I don't know if most people know this, but when they started, their rev share to creators was something like 80% to creators.
我不知道大多数人是否知道这一点，但当他们开始时，他们给创作者的收益份额大约是 80%。
They started very high.
他们的起点很高。
That brought on all the course creators, got their whole marketplace going, so on and so forth.
这吸引了所有课程创建者，让他们的整个市场运转起来，等等。
I believe it was about a year ago they announced that they're essentially pushing that rev share down to somewhere between 15 and 20%.
我相信大约一年前他们就宣布将转速份额降低到 15% 到 20% 之间。
Brian Balfour: They're somewhere at 25 and 30%.
Brian Balfour：大约在 25% 和 30% 之间。
Another example of they close down organic distribution in order to monetize, all that kind of stuff.
他们关闭有机分销的另一个例子是为了将所有此类东西货币化。
The same thing will happen in this AI world.
同样的事情也会发生在这个人工智能世界中。
Cursor, it's very clear Cursor's on the path to also probably create some type of agent platform for developers.
Cursor，很明显 Cursor 也可能为开发人员创建某种类型的代理平台。
That'll be a smaller ecosystem to play in for some products.
对于某些产品来说，这将是一个较小的生态系统。
It feels like everybody has the same strategy at this point is everybody wants to launch an agent platform.
感觉现在每个人都有相同的策略，每个人都想推出一个代理平台。
I imagine some of these other horizontal productivity tools will do the same thing, maybe like a Notion or an Airtable or a Monday.com or something like that.
我想其他一些横向生产力工具也会做同样的事情，也许像 Notion、Airtable、Monday.com 或类似的东西。
Brian Balfour: There will be smaller platforms that will emerge, and they will follow the exact same cycle that I'm also discussing, but in terms of the biggest consumer one, that's where I think ChatGPT has probably the most escape velocity and others will focus on different areas.
Brian Balfour：将会出现更小的平台，它们将遵循我正在讨论的完全相同的周期，但就最大的消费者而言，我认为 ChatGPT 可能具有最大的逃逸速度，而其他平台将专注于不同的领域。
Just to be clear, I love Claude.
澄清一下，我爱克劳德。
I actually use both Claude and ChatGPT-
我实际上同时使用 Claude 和 ChatGPT-
Brian Balfour: ...
布莱恩·贝尔福：...
for different things.
对于不同的事情。
I have lots of love to go around for all these tools.
我非常喜欢所有这些工具。
My prediction has no bearing on which product I like the most right now.
我的预测与我现在最喜欢哪种产品无关。
Lenny Rachitsky: Also love Claude.
Lenny Rachitsky：也喜欢克劳德。
So the key point here you're making is that there's almost a number of distribution channels emerging.
因此，您在这里提出的关键点是，几乎有许多分销渠道正在出现。
Many of them will be niche.
其中许多将是利基市场。
I think of LinkedIn.
我想到了 LinkedIn。
LinkedIn for me has a very targeted audience, for folks that listen to this podcast.
LinkedIn 对我来说有一个非常有针对性的受众，即那些听这个播客的人。
Even though it's not, I don't know, Google or Facebook or whatever, it's still incredibly valuable for this specific thing that I do.
尽管我不知道它不是 Google 或 Facebook 或其他什么，但它对于我所做的具体事情仍然非常有价值。
Lenny Rachitsky: I think this is even more interesting that there's going to be a number of distribution channels that emerge out of this whole AI wave.
Lenny Rachitsky：我认为更有趣的是，整个人工智能浪潮中将会出现许多分销渠道。
Lenny Rachitsky: The other thing I'll note real quick, you mentioned this idea of everyone's building agents.
Lenny Rachitsky：我会很快注意到的另一件事，你提到了每个人的建筑代理的想法。
I just had Brett Taylor on the podcast who's building Sierra, and he made me realize why everyone's building agents partly.
我刚刚在播客上看到了正在建造 Sierra 的 Brett Taylor，他让我意识到为什么每个人都在某种程度上是建筑代理。
One is because the outcome-based pricing that you can charge with agents is incredible because, one, you can actually attribute their impact on your business's ROI.
一是因为您可以向代理商收取的基于结果的定价令人难以置信，因为一，您实际上可以将其对您业务投资回报率的影响归因于。
You can actually see this is saving an agent $15 because it solved the case.
您实际上可以看到，这为代理人节省了 15 美元，因为它解决了案件。
And it's attributable and it's autonomous.
它是可归因的并且是自主的。
It's just doing it on its own.
它只是自己做而已。
With that, you can charge per outcome.
这样，您就可以根据结果收费。
You can say, "We'll charge you a dollar," every time it solves an issue.
每次解决问题时，您都可以说“我们将向您收取一美元”。
So the monetization opportunity is huge and the margins go up like crazy.
因此，货币化机会巨大，利润率疯狂上升。
Brian Balfour: Can I just ask a question about that?
Brian Balfour：我可以问一个问题吗？
Brian Balfour: Do you think that has longevity in the sense that...
Brian Balfour：您认为这是否具有长久性，因为......
That makes sense in the current environment that we're sitting in right now because people are comparing these outcomes relative to what it costs them today with pure humans.
这在我们现在所处的当前环境中是有意义的，因为人们正在将这些结果与今天纯人类所付出的代价进行比较。
But once again, competition comes in at some point, and so that feels like that creates a pretty ripe opportunity to undercut and come into...
但再一次，竞争在某个时候出现，所以感觉这就创造了一个非常成熟的机会来削弱并进入……
and then you have the disruption theory playing out as well.
然后颠覆理论也开始发挥作用。
It obviously depends on the infrastructure costs and compute costs to run these things, but I just wonder how much of that is temporary versus something that'll be long-term.
这显然取决于运行这些东西的基础设施成本和计算成本，但我只是想知道其中有多少是临时的，而不是长期的。
Lenny Rachitsky: So you're saying that dollar will come down to 50 cents, 25 cents, or you're saying someone's going to come with a whole new business model and disrupt that whole approach?
Lenny Rachitsky：所以你是说美元将降至 50 美分、25 美分，或者你是说有人会推出一种全新的商业模式并颠覆整个方法？
Brian Balfour: More the first, yeah.
Brian Balfour：更多的是第一个，是的。
It's just competition erodes that away, essentially, right?
从本质上讲，只是竞争侵蚀了这一点，对吗？
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah, that's a good point.
Lenny Rachitsky：是的，这是一个很好的观点。
So margins will be higher for a while, and then they'll come down.
因此，利润率会在一段时间内较高，然后就会下降。
Brian Balfour: Unless there's something else that creates a durable pricing power, right?
Brian Balfour：除非有其他东西可以创造持久的定价能力，对吗？
Brian Balfour: That's probably the second piece of this.
Brian Balfour：这可能是第二部分。
Yeah, that's probably the second piece of that hypothesis, I feel like.
是的，我觉得这可能是该假设的第二部分。
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：是的。
I guess the opportunity there, the moat would be the data, similar to how Cursor is collecting more feedback on what people want in their code suggestions, maybe in theory CRF and has more and more data over time, and there's this network effect-
我想那里的机会，护城河将是数据，类似于 Cursor 如何收集更多关于人们在代码建议中想要的内容的反馈，也许在理论上 CRF 并且随着时间的推移拥有越来越多的数据，并且存在这种网络效应 -
Brian Balfour: Yeah.
布莱恩·贝尔福：是的。
That's right.
这是正确的。
Let me revise that.
让我修改一下。
I believe in that as long as it's paired with-
我相信只要它与-
Brian Balfour: ...
布莱恩·贝尔福：...
this second piece.
这第二块。
Otherwise, it gets competed away.
否则，它就会被竞争走掉。
Lenny Rachitsky: Good tangent.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：切线很好。
Okay, one more question.
好吧，还有一个问题。
What is your prediction on timeline for when the opportunity appears, and what do you predict, as of the day we're recording, what do you predict will be the next couple things that ChatGPT, and let's just focus on that, releases to start to open up this platform to get everyone in there?
您对机会出现的时间安排有何预测？截至我们录制当天，您预测 ChatGPT（让我们重点关注这一点）发布的接下来的几件事将是什么，以开始开放这个平台，让每个人都参与其中？
Brian Balfour: Well, look, I'll first give the disclaimer that I feel like any thoughts on timing in the AI market have been very hard to predict.
Brian Balfour：嗯，听着，我首先要声明的是，我觉得任何关于人工智能市场时机的想法都很难预测。
It's always shorter.
它总是更短。
That's where we should buy us.
那就是我们应该买我们的地方。
It's always shorter than you think of when something's going to happen.
事情发生的时间总是比你想象的要短。
That's what it's felt like from the seat that I've been sitting in.
这就是我坐在座位上的感觉。
But my guess is this: we're going to see the next major steps of this play out over the next six months.
但我的猜测是：我们将在接下来的六个月内看到接下来的主要步骤。
Brian Balfour: I think we just saw one of the pieces drop around this, which was, ChatGPT's recently launched Agent mode.
Brian Balfour：我想我们刚刚看到了其中的一个内容，那就是 ChatGPT 最近推出的代理模式。
It's kind of a general-purpose agent, and I think that starts to introduce all of the users to using agents and they're figuring out and placing it in the different tiers and business models, all of those pieces.
它是一种通用代理，我认为这开始向所有用户介绍使用代理，他们正在弄清楚并将其放置在不同的层和业务模型中，所有这些部分。
But it's likely that no general-purpose agent is going to fulfill all of the infinite use cases successfully.
但很可能没有通用代理能够成功满足所有无限的用例。
There's two reasons for this.
这有两个原因。
Brian Balfour: Users struggle with horizontal tools.
Brian Balfour：用户在使用水平工具时遇到了困难。
They can do everything, and that's exactly why they struggle to adopt, and so they typically need more specific entry points.
他们可以做任何事情，这正是他们难以采用的原因，因此他们通常需要更具体的切入点。
But also, the more specific use case you get, sometimes you need specific UI, specific data, other specific ingredients to properly fulfill that use case for a given audience.
而且，您获得的用例越具体，有时您需要特定的 UI、特定的数据、其他特定的成分来正确满足给定受众的用例。
I think their Agent mode was a step in this direction.
我认为他们的代理模式是朝这个方向迈出的一步。
Brian Balfour: What I would expect to see play out next is that they will either launch, they will announce the platform with preferred partners, or what they're going to announce first is basically a set of preferred partners, the guinea pigs, an initial 10 to 20 folks that are bringing agents to their platform.
Brian Balfour：我预计接下来会发生的是，他们要么推出，要么宣布与首选合作伙伴合作的平台，要么他们首先宣布的基本上是一组首选合作伙伴，即小白鼠，最初的 10 到 20 个人将代理引入他们的平台。
What that does is essentially, once again, it's a credibility card.
从本质上讲，它再次成为一张信誉卡。
You do special deals with some brand names to give the platform credibility, and it creates this desire from everybody else to come on to the platform.
你与一些品牌进行特殊交易，以提高平台的可信度，这会激发其他人加入该平台的愿望。
Brian Balfour: And then the step after that is starting to opening up the platform.
Brian Balfour：接下来的一步是开始开放平台。
This is where we'll really start to figure out what this game is going to look like because they basically have to define what the value exchange is.
这是我们真正开始弄清楚这个游戏将会是什么样子的地方，因为他们基本上必须定义价值交换是什么。
What are they giving you access to, and what are they incentivizing you with to come onto the platform?
他们为您提供了哪些访问权限，以及他们用什么激励您进入该平台？
That's one version of it.
这是它的一个版本。
Brian Balfour: The other version of it is just the replacement to search.
Brian Balfour：它的另一个版本只是搜索的替代品。
You can also see them starting to make more moves here, which is deeper attribution in some of the results, those types of pieces.
你还可以看到他们开始在这里做出更多的动作，这是对某些结果、这些类型的棋子的更深层次的归因。
They're bringing in shopping.
他们带来了购物。
That's one of their recent announcements as well, native into the UI.
这也是他们最近发布的公告之一，原生于用户界面。
Essentially they will form new monetization mechanisms around that stuff as well.
从本质上讲，他们还将围绕这些东西形成新的货币化机制。
That's actually going to be very important because, going back to the moat around memory and context is that they will want to incentivize as many people to their free tier as possible, but given the cost of AI, they have to cover it somehow, so they're going to need some monetization mechanisms.
这实际上非常重要，因为回到内存和环境的护城河，他们希望激励尽可能多的人使用他们的免费套餐，但考虑到人工智能的成本，他们必须以某种方式覆盖它，所以他们将需要一些货币化机制。
The more that they can cover that free usage with things that aren't subscriptions, I think that probably also feeds the moat.
他们越多地可以通过非订阅的东西来覆盖免费使用，我认为这也可能会增加护城河。
Brian Balfour: I think those are some of the next steps on two different vectors, more of a third-party developer platform and more of the content, whatever you want to call it, AEO, GEO.
Brian Balfour：我认为这些是接下来在两个不同载体上采取的一些步骤，更多的是第三方开发者平台和更多内容，无论你怎么称呼它，AEO、GEO。
I don't know what acronym is we've all decided on yet.
我不知道缩写词是什么，我们都已经决定了。
Let me know if we have.
如果有的话请告诉我。
I think those will be the next steps that we'll see.
我认为这些将是我们接下来会看到的步骤。
Brian Balfour: Now, that's what I think for ChatGPT.
Brian Balfour：这就是我对 ChatGPT 的看法。
I think the thing that we should talk about is, essentially what I would advise folks, especially startups, is you're placing bets.
我认为我们应该讨论的事情是，基本上我建议人们，尤其是初创公司，你要下注。
At this part of the cycle, you're placing bets.
在周期的这一部分，您要下注。
The winner is 100% guaranteed, as I mentioned, and so you essentially at some point will need to make some decisions about where to place your bets.
正如我所提到的，获胜者是 100% 保证的，因此您基本上在某些时候需要做出一些关于在哪里下注的决定。
Brian Balfour: In the Facebook days, all those other social networks, they also came out with their own platforms.
Brian Balfour：在 Facebook 时代，所有其他社交网络也推出了自己的平台。
iOS had Android and some failed initiatives from Windows.
iOS 拥有 Android 以及 Windows 的一些失败的举措。
I don't even remember what that platform was called.
我什至不记得那个平台叫什么。
You can look back and whoever placed through...
你可以回顾一下，无论谁通过了......
the iPhone was actually a very, and iOS is a good one, which is, if you had only aligned your bets to Android, you probably lost.
iPhone 实际上是非常好的，而 iOS 是好的，也就是说，如果你只把赌注押在 Android 上，你可能会输。
If you somehow found a way to play on both ecosystems, you could be a winner.
如果您以某种方式找到了在这两个生态系统中发挥作用的方法，您可能会成为赢家。
But if you only aligned to iOS, you could also be a winner.
但如果您只与 iOS 保持一致，您也可能成为赢家。
You had to have iOS as part of your betting strategy in order to win.
您必须将 iOS 作为您的投注策略的一部分才能获胜。
Brian Balfour: Everybody right now, you're probably at this cycle and you're trying to figure out, well, everybody will need to figure out where are they going to place their chips.
Brian Balfour：现在每个人，你可能正处于这个周期，你试图弄清楚，好吧，每个人都需要弄清楚他们将把筹码放在哪里。
How are they going to bet?
他们要怎么下注呢？
Depending on how you bet really depends on what your current position is in the marketplace.
取决于您如何下注，实际上取决于您当前在市场中的位置。
If you're a late-stage startup, let's start with that, or a late-stage company, you can afford the luxury to place multiple bets and spread your chips and wait it out a little bit to see who the winner is, and then really throw your muscle behind that winner.
如果你是一家处于后期阶段的初创公司，让我们从这个开始，或者是一家处于后期阶段的公司，你可以奢侈地进行多次下注，分散你的筹码，等待一段时间看看谁是赢家，然后真正全力支持那个赢家。
You have that luxury a little bit.
你有一点奢侈。
But the risk of that, the risk of that is that sometimes the incumbents wait too long to make that decision, and that's the key question they will need to answer.
但这样做的风险在于，有时现任者会等待太长时间才能做出决定，而这是他们需要回答的关键问题。
Brian Balfour: The key question for startups is totally different.
Brian Balfour：初创公司面临的关键问题完全不同。
You don't have the luxury to spread your chips.
你没有能力分散你的筹码。
You have to go all in.
你必须全力以赴。
You have to choose one and go all in.
你必须选择一个并全力以赴。
You have scarce resources, scarce attention from the market.
你拥有稀缺的资源，稀缺的市场关注。
It's a totally different ballgame.
这是一场完全不同的球赛。
Higher risk, higher reward, for sure.
更高的风险，更高的回报，这是肯定的。
That's part of the betting strategy for startups.
这是初创公司押注策略的一部分。
That's what you have to do is you have to figure out your betting strategy, and then we can talk a little bit about how you might evaluate and pick the right course for you.
这就是你所要做的，你必须弄清楚你的投注策略，然后我们可以谈谈你如何评估和选择适合你的课程。
That's where we're all at right now is we just entered the casino, we just put some cash in for some chips, and now we've got to figure out what tables and where to place those chips.
这就是我们现在所处的情况，我们刚刚进入赌场，我们只是投入了一些现金来购买一些筹码，现在我们必须弄清楚哪些牌桌以及将这些筹码放在哪里。
Lenny Rachitsky: I love this analogy.
Lenny Rachitsky：我喜欢这个比喻。
Just to be crystal clear about what listeners should do, what founders should do, what product teams should do, the advice here essentially is integrate with ChatGPT, maybe Gemini, maybe if Apple has something, actually integrate with what they launch.
为了清楚地了解听众应该做什么、创始人应该做什么、产品团队应该做什么，这里的建议本质上是与 ChatGPT 集成，也许 Gemini，也许如果苹果有什么东西，实际上与他们发布的产品集成。
It could be a login thing, could be a search thing, could be a connect and suck up your memory in context.
它可能是一个登录的东西，可能是一个搜索的东西，可能是一个连接并吸收你在上下文中的记忆。
The advice here is you need to do this because this is potentially the way that most companies will start to grow and your competitors may overtake you.
这里的建议是您需要这样做，因为这可能是大多数公司开始发展的方式，并且您的竞争对手可能会超越您。
Brian Balfour: Yeah.
布莱恩·贝尔福：是的。
If we had to really simplify it, it's essentially, play the game.
如果我们必须真正简化它，那么本质上就是玩游戏。
Don't opt out of the game.
不要选择退出游戏。
Don't trick yourself into thinking that you can't play the game.
不要欺骗自己，让自己认为自己不能玩这个游戏。
That's number one.
这是第一。
Number two, no matter who you bet on, just make it a focused bet.
第二，无论你押注于谁，都要集中押注。
Because if you look back, all the failures are the ones that tried to play multiple games at once with scarce resources, and that just tends to never work if you're an early-stage startup.
因为如果你回顾过去，所有的失败都是那些试图用稀缺资源同时玩多个游戏的失败，而如果你是一家早期初创公司，这往往永远不会奏效。
So those two things: play the game, put a focused bet.
所以这两件事：玩游戏，集中下注。
Lenny Rachitsky: This episode is brought to you by Miro.
Lenny Rachitsky：本集由 Miro 为您带来。
Every day, new headlines are scaring us about all the ways that AI is coming for our jobs, creating a lot of anxiety and fear, but a recent survey from Miro tells a different story.
每天，新的头条新闻都让我们害怕人工智能会以各种方式取代我们的工作，造成很多焦虑和恐惧，但米罗最近的一项调查却讲述了一个不同的故事。
76% of people believe that AI can benefit the role, but over 50% of people struggle to know when to use it.
76% 的人认为人工智能可以使该职位受益，但超过 50% 的人很难知道何时使用它。
Enter Miro's Innovation Workspace, an intelligent platform that brings people and AI together in a shared space to get great work done.
进入 Miro 的创新工作空间，这是一个智能平台，它将人和人工智能聚集在一个共享空间中，以完成出色的工作。
Lenny Rachitsky: Miro has been empowering teams to transform bold ideas into the next big thing for over a decade.
Lenny Rachitsky：十多年来，Miro 一直致力于帮助团队将大胆的想法转化为下一件大事。
Today, they're at the forefront of bringing products to market even faster by unleashing the combined power of AI and human potential.
如今，他们处于领先地位，通过释放人工智能和人类潜力的综合力量，更快地将产品推向市场。
Guests of this podcast often share Miro templates.
该播客的嘉宾经常分享 Miro 模板。
I use it all the time to brainstorm ideas with my team.
我一直用它与我的团队集思广益。
Teams especially can work with Miro AI to turn the unstructured data, like sticky notes or screenshots, into usable diagrams, product briefs, data tables, and prototypes in minutes.
团队尤其可以与 Miro AI 合作，在几分钟内将非结构化数据（如便签或屏幕截图）转换为可用的图表、产品简介、数据表和原型。
Lenny Rachitsky: You don't have to be an AI master or to toggle yet another tool.
Lenny Rachitsky：您不必成为人工智能大师或切换另一种工具。
The work you're already doing in Miro's canvas is the prompt.
您已经在 Miro 的画布中所做的工作就是提示。
Help your teams get great work done with Miro.
使用 Miro 帮助您的团队出色地完成工作。
Check it out at miro.com/lenny.
请访问 miro.com/lenny 进行查看。
That's M-I-R-O dot com slash Lenny.
那是 M-I-R-O . com 斜线莱尼。
Lenny Rachitsky: So you were Head of Growth at HubSpot for a long time, and you gave that as an example, HubSpot, why would they integrate, why would they give away all their data so that ChatGPT can suck it up, and you never have to go to HubSpot, you're just working through their agent.
Lenny Rachitsky：所以你在 HubSpot 担任了很长一段时间的增长主管，你举了一个例子，HubSpot，他们为什么要整合，为什么他们要放弃所有数据，以便 ChatGPT 可以吸收它，而你永远不必去 HubSpot，你只是通过他们的代理工作。
Would you at HubSpot be like, "Yes, we got to do this.
HubSpot 的你会不会说：“是的，我们必须这样做。
This is the game we got to play"?
这就是我们要玩的游戏”？
Brian Balfour: Yeah, 100%, and that's exactly what I think you see them doing.
Brian Balfour：是的，100%，我认为你看到的正是他们在做的事情。
Look, to be very clear, I have not talked to anybody at HubSpot about this.
需要明确的是，我还没有与 HubSpot 的任何人谈论过此事。
I have not talked to Dharmesh about this, but Dharmesh I think has also published about this.
我还没有和 Dharmesh 谈论过这个问题，但我认为 Dharmesh 也发表了相关内容。
The right thing to do is, essentially, even though you understand how the cycle plays out and you don't necessarily understand what your exit strategy is once you get out, it's better to be early, know that you need to figure out an exit strategy and figure out that exit strategy along the way versus waiting and then being super late and then know what the exit strategy is.
从本质上讲，正确的做法是，即使你了解这个周期是如何进行的，而且你不一定了解退出后的退出策略是什么，但最好早点，知道你需要找出退出策略，并一路找出退出策略，而不是等待然后超级晚，然后知道退出策略是什么。
Brian Balfour: I think that's exactly what you see them doing.
Brian Balfour：我认为这正是你所看到的他们所做的。
They're trying to be as early to this stuff as possible.
他们正试图尽可能早地采取行动。
I think it's a pretty smart play, even though we might not necessarily see what the exit strategy is out of this cycle for them.
我认为这是一个非常明智的策略，尽管我们可能不一定会看到他们在这个周期中的退出策略是什么。
Lenny Rachitsky: Going back to that amazing quote that you shared at the beginning of the conversation by, I think it was Alex Rampell?
Lenny Rachitsky：回到您在谈话开始时分享的那句令人惊叹的引言，我认为那是亚历克斯·拉姆佩尔（Alex Rampell）？
Lenny Rachitsky: Of that startups win by finding a distribution channel before the incumbent copies them.
Lenny Rachitsky：其中，初创公司通过在现有企业复制它们之前找到分销渠道来获胜。
What you're saying here is this is the opportunity for startups to disrupt an incumbent.
你在这里所说的是，这是初创公司颠覆现有企业的机会。
This is the opportunity for someone to disrupt Salesforce, I don't know, ServiceNow, all these guys that have been around for a long time.
这是有人颠覆 Salesforce 的机会，我不知道，ServiceNow，所有这些已经存在很长时间的人。
Brian Balfour: Yeah, it's going to be one of the major ones.
Brian Balfour：是的，这将是主要问题之一。
Now look, you've already seen players that have been able to hit this escape velocity, the Cursors and stuff of the world.
现在看，你已经看到了能够达到这个逃逸速度的玩家、光标和世界上的东西。
Once again, there's multiple ways to hit that escape velocity, but this is one of the major ways to do it is to basically hitch yourself to a new platform.
再说一遍，有多种方法可以达到逃逸速度，但这是主要方法之一，基本上就是将自己绑在一个新平台上。
Look, you did it yourself, actually.
你看，实际上是你自己做的。
You hitched yourself to Substack super early.
你很早就加入了 Substack。
You took a focused bet.
你进行了集中投注。
Brian Balfour: Yeah, yeah.
布莱恩·贝尔福：是的，是的。
I don't know why that just hit me, but you took a focused bet and you've benefited from it in a disproportional way than those that came later.
我不知道为什么这让我感到震惊，但你进行了集中的投注，并且你从中获得的利益比后来的人要多。
I think that's actually a great meta example here as I sit here and think about this.
当我坐在这里思考这个问题时，我认为这实际上是一个很好的元示例。
Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah, that's actually the way I thought about when I was moving to Substack.
Lenny Rachitsky：是的，这实际上是我在转向 Substack 时的想法。
I feel like there's this wave rising and I want to ride this wave, even if maybe it's not the best place or they take a cut, all that stuff.
我觉得这股浪潮正在兴起，我想驾驭这股浪潮，即使它可能不是最好的地方，或者他们会削减，诸如此类。
But it worked out really well.
但效果非常好。
Brian Balfour: That's right.
布莱恩·贝尔福：没错。
I think it worked out very well.
我认为效果非常好。
Lenny Rachitsky: It worked out really well.
Lenny Rachitsky：效果非常好。
To be honest, it felt like it was too late when I started six years ago.
说实话，六年前开始的时候感觉已经太晚了。
Lenny Rachitsky: It always feels too late, I think, to people that join...
Lenny Rachitsky：我认为，对于加入的人来说，总是感觉太晚了……
Silicon Valley, or sorry, Marc Andreessen has this famous quote.
硅谷，或者抱歉，马克·安德森（Marc Andreessen）有这句名言。
He's like, "I came to Silicon Valley in the '80s.
他说，“我在 80 年代来到硅谷。
I thought it was over, I was too late.
我以为一切都结束了，但我已经太晚了。
I missed all the opportunities." That's fair.
我错过了所有的机会。”这很公平。
There was just a lot of newsletters.
只是有很多时事通讯。
They were doing really well.
他们做得非常好。
Millions of subscribers.
数百万订阅者。
I'm like...
我就像...
Brian Balfour: And what do you say to people now who want to join Substack?
Brian Balfour：您对现在想加入 Substack 的人有什么想说的？
Lenny Rachitsky: "Learn from this example." A lot of times when people think that it's too late, it's definitely not too late, and it's always only just getting started.
Lenny Rachitsky：“从这个例子中学习。”很多时候，当人们认为为时已晚时，其实还不算太晚，而且永远只是刚刚开始。
Especially if you're on Twitter all day listening to podcasts like this where we're surrounded with this bubble of everyone talking about something, when in reality, 1% of people know anything about what you're hearing about every day.
特别是如果你整天在 Twitter 上听这样的播客，我们周围都是每个人都在谈论某事的泡沫，而实际上，1% 的人知道你每天听到的内容。
Brian Balfour: Yeah.
布莱恩·贝尔福：是的。
Yeah, that's so interesting.
是的，这太有趣了。
Lenny Rachitsky: Okay, so coming back to the advice, say someone is sitting there and talking to their manager like, "Brian just shared all this mind-blowing advice.
Lenny Rachitsky：好吧，回到建议，假设有人坐在那里与他们的经理交谈，就像“布莱恩刚刚分享了所有这些令人兴奋的建议。
We got to pick our battles, we got to pick our platform," what would your advice be for them to decide where to place their bets?
我们必须选择我们的战斗，我们必须选择我们的平台，”您对他们决定在哪里下注有什么建议？
Brian Balfour: I think this is a great question because, once again, put my personal prediction aside for a second, and I would encourage everybody to think about it from first principles from who their audience is, what their product is, what stage of company they're at, their current strengths and weaknesses, you got to take all this into account, but if I had to boil it down to a few criteria, the main things I would think about is, when you're looking at new distribution channels and new platforms to choose on, one, going back to what we said before is the better signal is retention and depth of engagement of the users on this platform than it is pure user level like MAU or some other number of signups, one of those vanity metrics.
布莱恩·贝尔福：我认为这是一个很好的问题，因为，再一次，把我个人的预测放在一边，我鼓励每个人从他们的受众是谁、他们的产品是什么、他们处于公司的哪个阶段、他们目前的优势和劣势等首要原则来思考这个问题，你必须考虑到所有这些，但如果我必须将其归结为几个标准，我会考虑的主要事情是，当你在寻找新的分销渠道和新平台时，第一，回到什么我们之前说过，更好的信号是用户在该平台上的保留和参与深度，而不是纯用户级别（例如 MAU 或其他一些注册数量）（这些虚荣指标之一）。
Look at that number one.
看看那个排名第一的。
Brian Balfour: Number two is, there's some element of user quality and ability to monetize the users on this platform.
Brian Balfour：第二点是，这个平台上有一些用户质量和通过用户货币化的能力。
I think the starkest example here would be iOS and Android.
我认为最明显的例子是 iOS 和 Android。
Even today it's something like Android has 70-some percent of devices, but only 30% of the market share by dollars, and it's the exact flip for iOS.
即使在今天，Android 也占据了 70% 的设备，但按美元计算只占 30% 的市场份额，而 iOS 则恰恰相反。
It goes back to what we were talking about earlier, which was, if you bet on Android only, you probably lost, but if you bet on iOS only, even though smaller user base, you were still able to parlay that into a win later.
这又回到了我们之前讨论的，如果你只押注于Android，你可能会输，但如果你只押注于iOS，即使用户基数较小，你仍然可以在以后赢得胜利。
Brian Balfour: The third thing to look at is, as these platforms emerge, just analyze what the value exchange is.
Brian Balfour：第三件事是，随着这些平台的出现，只需分析价值交换是什么。
What are they giving you to incentivize you to develop on their platform?
他们给你什么来激励你在他们的平台上发展？
All these platforms, it's a bit of a game of whoever understands the rules and how to arbitrage the rules the best tend to be the ones with the edge and figure that out.
所有这些平台，这有点像一场游戏，谁了解规则以及如何套利规则，谁就最有优势并弄清楚这一点。
Brian Balfour: And then finally, fourth on my criteria would be pure scale.
Brian Balfour：最后，根据我的标准，第四名是纯粹的规模。
Obviously, even if you have those other three, but there's a 200x difference in scale and momentum, obviously you probably have to choose the bigger platform.
显然，即使你有其他三个，但规模和动力有 200 倍的差异，显然你可能必须选择更大的平台。
Brian Balfour: But last but not least is as you go through these criteria, these are how you think through entering the game.
Brian Balfour：但最后但并非最不重要的是，当你通过这些标准时，这些就是你进入游戏的想法。
Once you enter the game, then you immediately need to move to starting to think about how do you exit the game.
一旦你进入游戏，你就需要立即开始思考如何退出游戏。
Knowing once again that that last step is going to come at some point in the future, that there's going to be some closure for monetization, then that's where you have to start thinking through your strategy to exit.
再次知道最后一步将在未来的某个时刻到来，货币化将会有所结束，那么这就是你必须开始考虑退出策略的地方。
Brian Balfour: That comes down to things like, okay, well how are you going to own an important part of the user experience or workflow?
Brian Balfour：这归结为这样的事情，好吧，你将如何拥有用户体验或工作流程的重要部分？
Or how are you going to accumulate specialized data in context that the major platforms don't have?
或者您将如何在主要平台没有的背景下积累专业数据？
Or how do you create different types of micro network effects?
或者如何创造不同类型的微网络效应？
All of these types of things.
所有这些类型的事情。
So just once again, there is the entrance criteria, but once you figure that out and you feel like you're in the game, you immediately need to move towards, okay, what's my exit plan here, knowing this is all coming.
所以，再一次，有进入标准，但是一旦你弄清楚了这一点并且你感觉自己在游戏中，你立即需要朝着，好吧，我的退出计划是什么，知道这一切都会到来。
Lenny Rachitsky: It's interesting that another way to think about this model you've described as building, the strategy of building on top of LLMs and becoming a GPT wrapper.
Lenny Rachitsky：有趣的是，可以用另一种方式来思考您所描述的构建模型，即在 LLM 之上构建并成为 GPT 包装器的策略。
Because essentially this tech allows you to, say, create a cursor that is incredible, and then you could argue, oh, you're just going to be this wrapper, and they're getting all the money here, everyone can copy you.
因为从本质上来说，这项技术允许你创建一个令人难以置信的光标，然后你可能会说，哦，你只是成为这个包装器，他们在这里得到所有的钱，每个人都可以复制你。
What's your defensibility long-term?
你的长期防御能力是什么？
The answer is, what is the moat you will build over time sitting on top of this thing that will make you more and more valuable on term and not have to rely on this thing?
答案是，随着时间的推移，你将在这个东西上建立什么样的护城河，让你在期限内变得越来越有价值，而不必依赖这个东西？
It feels like you could use the same framework for building a GPT wrapper business, to use that euphemism.
感觉就像你可以使用相同的框架来构建 GPT 包装器业务，用这种委婉的说法。
Lenny Rachitsky: Say someone is sitting there today.
Lenny Rachitsky：假设今天有人坐在那里。
Is there anything they can do to start making a bet?
他们可以做些什么来开始下注吗？
Is it simply creating an MCP that allows LLMs to suck in your data?
它只是创建一个 MCP 来让 LLM 吸收您的数据吗？
Is that the one thing you could do today?
这是你今天能做的一件事吗？
Is there anything else that's available today to start using these platforms, or is it just a little too early and they haven't released the good stuff yet?
今天还有其他可用的东西可以开始使用这些平台吗？还是现在还为时过早，他们还没有发布好东西？
Brian Balfour: It might be just a tad too early.
Brian Balfour：现在可能有点太早了。
We're right on that edge.
我们就在那个边缘。
Some of the questions I'm asking myself is, I'm going through all of these players and where our customers and target audience live, and I'm asking myself the question, okay, if this player launched some type of platform, how would we evaluate it?
我问自己的一些问题是，我正在浏览所有这些参与者以及我们的客户和目标受众居住的地方，我问自己这个问题，好吧，如果这个参与者推出了某种类型的平台，我们将如何评估它？
So on and so forth.
等等。
Brian Balfour: You can also try to cozy up to these folks.
Brian Balfour：你也可以尝试去讨好这些人。
I would place a large portion of my net worth right now that if we could sit in the OpenAI offices at that front desk, that they are having meetings with potential preferred developers talking about this, we could probably sit there and log it.
我现在会把我的净资产的很大一部分投入到如果我们可以坐在 OpenAI 办公室的前台，他们正在与潜在的首选开发人员开会讨论这个问题，我们可能可以坐在那里记录下来。
I do think some people are going to be in a place to develop preferred relationships and make a note.
我确实认为有些人会在一个地方发展首选的关系并做笔记。
If you're in that spot, then you should definitely play that card.
如果你处于那个位置，那么你绝对应该打这张牌。
A lot of early-stage startups will be in that place.
很多早期创业公司都会在那个地方。
Brian Balfour: Other than that, I would say, once they launch these platforms, you can't do much else, so you really know what the value exchange is and what they're going to expose for you, but also just be prepared to turn your strategy on a dime and go all in.
Brian Balfour：除此之外，我想说，一旦他们推出这些平台，你就无能为力了，所以你真的知道价值交换是什么以及他们将为你展示什么，但也要准备好立即改变你的策略并全力以赴。
I think that's probably one of the hardest parts of this is that these things emerge and you have to capitalize extremely quickly.
我认为这可能是最困难的部分之一，因为这些东西的出现，你必须非常迅速地利用。
A lot of times, it's hard for leaders to do that because they don't want to create a feeling of whiplash into the unknown, and we've got all these projects in play.
很多时候，领导者很难做到这一点，因为他们不想给未知带来一种被鞭打的感觉，而我们已经让所有这些项目都在进行中。
You know all the things.
你知道所有的事情。
I think that's probably the last part of what we can be doing right now versus just staying on top of everything as it emerges.
我认为这可能是我们现在可以做的最后一部分，而不是仅仅在事情出现时掌握一切。
Lenny Rachitsky: As you were talking, this reminded me, I recently noticed that ChatGPT is driving me to my newsletter more traffic than Twitter, and I feel like that recently shifted.
Lenny Rachitsky：正如你所说，这提醒了我，我最近注意到 ChatGPT 为我带来的时事通讯流量比 Twitter 更多，我觉得这种情况最近发生了变化。
I didn't even know this was a thing until I just started looking through my referrals.
直到我开始查看我的推荐之前，我什至不知道这是一件事。
I'm like, "ChatGPT?
我想，“ChatGPT？
What the hell is going on there?" It's like a different version of what you're talking about, but essentially, in theory I could block ChatGPT from...
那里到底发生了什么事？”这就像你所说的不同版本，但本质上，理论上我可以阻止 ChatGPT...
I don't know.
我不知道。
I don't even know if I can from...
我什至不知道我是否可以从...
including all my stuff.
包括我所有的东西。
Brian Balfour: You can in Substack now, yeah.
Brian Balfour：你现在可以在 Substack 中，是的。
I just saw that setting in there.
我刚刚看到了那里的设置。
Lenny Rachitsky: Okay.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：好的。
Oh, interesting.
哦，有趣。
That's the similar kind of decision is, is it better for me for it to be recommending my stuff and telling people, "Hey, go check this thing out," or is it better to block it off?
类似的决定是，推荐我的东西并告诉人们“嘿，去看看这个东西”对我来说更好，还是阻止它更好？
I think, per your point, and this is the way I felt, take it all.
我认为，根据你的观点，这就是我的感受，接受一切。
It's good.
很好。
In that, it's better that it's from Lenny's newsletter than something else.
从这一点来看，最好是来自莱尼的时事通讯，而不是其他东西。
So someone else will come in and eat that market share.
所以其他人就会进来并蚕食这个市场份额。
Brian Balfour: Yeah, that's right.
布莱恩·贝尔福：是的，没错。
If you don't do it, somebody else is.
如果你不做，别人就会做。
I think that's also what all the major media publishers are really contending with right now.
我认为这也是所有主要媒体出版商目前真正面临的问题。
Lenny Rachitsky: I guess I need a licensing deal with New York check.
Lenny Rachitsky：我想我需要与纽约支票达成许可协议。
Anyway.
反正。
Okay.
好的。
I want to go on a totally different tangent.
我想走完全不同的切线。
We weren't planning to talk about this.
我们本来不打算谈论这个。
I know that I said this, we're going to be fully focused on this one topic, but there's something you mentioned to me before we start recording that I think will be really interesting to a lot of people.
我知道我说过这一点，我们将完全专注于这一主题，但在我们开始录制之前你向我提到了一些事情，我认为很多人都会非常感兴趣。
Lenny Rachitsky: You guys at Reforge are now building actual SaaS products that people can buy.
Lenny Rachitsky：Reforge 的你们现在正在构建人们可以购买的实际 SaaS 产品。
It's not just courses.
这不仅仅是课程。
I don't know if people know that, but let's make sure people understand this.
我不知道人们是否知道这一点，但让我们确保人们理解这一点。
There's actually products for product teams, so maybe just explain that briefly, but the thing that I think is really interesting here is you work with a lot of companies now selling them AI tools, and you have noticed a very big difference between the companies that are really good at adopting AI tools and seeing gains from them from those that don't.
实际上有针对产品团队的产品，所以也许只是简单地解释一下，但我认为这里真正有趣的是你与很多公司合作，现在向他们销售人工智能工具，你已经注意到那些真正擅长采用人工智能工具的公司和那些不擅长采用人工智能工具的公司之间存在很大的差异。
Talk about just what you see there, and because this is in theory going to be really helpful to companies that are struggling with adopting AI tools and seeing gains.
谈谈你在那里看到的东西，因为理论上这对那些正在努力采用人工智能工具并看到收益的公司非常有帮助。
Brian Balfour: Just to quickly explain that transition so it makes sense for people, which is, I started Reforge just with the interest that there was all these incredible leaders out there growing on the front lines of some of the fastest growing companies and they have all this amazing knowledge and I wanted to encode it in useful and practical ways for others.
Brian Balfour：只是为了快速解释一下这种转变，以便对人们有意义，也就是说，我创办 Reforge 只是出于兴趣，因为在一些发展最快的公司的前线成长着所有这些令人难以置信的领导者，他们拥有所有这些令人惊叹的知识，我想以对其他人有用和实用的方式对其进行编码。
That took the form of courses and content and product, all that kind of stuff at the beginning.
一开始的形式是课程、内容和产品，诸如此类的东西。
Along the way, everybody kept asking us to essentially build the tools to implement what we taught.
一路上，每个人都不断要求我们从本质上构建工具来实施我们所教授的内容。
Because with anything, you can learn as much as you want.
因为对于任何事情，你想学多少就学多少。
You can listen to my podcast, your podcast, Lenny, whatever, as much as you want, but if you don't actually put it into action and implement it, then it's not really going to create value.
你可以听我的播客，你的播客，Lenny，等等，只要你想听就可以，但如果你没有真正付诸行动并实施它，那么它就不会真正创造价值。
Brian Balfour: People kept asking us to really close that gap and we said no for the longest time.
Brian Balfour：人们一直要求我们真正缩小这一差距，但我们很长时间都拒绝了。
And then about a couple of years ago when AI really started to inflect, it really created this moment that, oh, wow, now there's this opportunity not just to encode this knowledge into content, but also into the products, the software, the tools that we use ourselves.
然后大约几年前，当人工智能真正开始发挥作用时，它真的创造了这样一个时刻，哦，哇，现在有这个机会不仅可以将这些知识编码到内容中，还可以编码到我们自己使用的产品、软件和工具中。
So we started to take a really big bet on that and started to develop this new platform for AI-native product teams.
因此，我们开始对此下了很大的赌注，并开始为人工智能原生产品团队开发这个新平台。
Brian Balfour: The first product we launched is called Reforge Insights, which acts like your AI product researcher, aggregates all the feedback from all the sources, uses AI to analyze it, helps you explore it, but also will start to identify what are the gaps, the things that you don't have in your feedback today and auto-generate the research to go gather all those new insights, so complete the full cycle.
Brian Balfour：我们推出的第一个产品叫做 Reforge Insights，它就像你的人工智能产品研究员一样，聚合来自所有来源的所有反馈，使用人工智能进行分析，帮助你探索它，但也会开始找出差距是什么，你今天的反馈中没有的东西，并自动生成研究以收集所有这些新的见解，从而完成整个周期。
We're going to launch two other major products as part of this platform before the end of the year, but we'll save that for some future episode.
我们将在今年年底前推出另外两款主要产品作为该平台的一部分，但我们会将其留到未来的某个阶段。
Brian Balfour: So that's been our journey.
Brian Balfour：这就是我们的旅程。
We've seen inside companies that are going through this transformation from two perspectives.
我们从两个角度看到了正在经历这种转变的公司内部。
One is obviously selling in that tools, but the other perspective is, for 10 years, companies have been coming to us to help them try some sort of transformation with our learning product.
一个显然是在销售这些工具，但另一个观点是，十年来，公司一直来找我们，帮助他们尝试使用我们的学习产品进行某种转型。
Brian Balfour: Most companies are not coming to us to just throw a bunch of courses in front of, they're trying to solve some big business problem, some transformation.
Brian Balfour：大多数公司来找我们并不是为了向我们提供一堆课程，他们是在试图解决一些重大的业务问题，一些转型。
Now that used to be things like, we've got to figure out this growth thing, or I'm going from sales-led to product-led, or I have more project managers and I need to transition to product managers, something like that.
现在过去是这样的事情，我们必须弄清楚这个增长的事情，或者我要从销售主导转向产品主导，或者我有更多的项目经理，我需要过渡到产品经理，类似的事情。
There's some business problem, they're going through some transformation and they saw us as part of that transformation and we got to partake in quite a few of those types of transformation.
存在一些业务问题，他们正在经历一些转型，他们将我们视为转型的一部分，我们必须参与其中相当多的此类转型。
Brian Balfour: Now of course, the transformation that everybody's going through is, okay, how do I become more AI-native?
Brian Balfour：当然，现在每个人都在经历的转变是，好吧，我如何变得更加人工智能原生？
How do I adopt this stuff?
我该如何采用这个东西？
We've seen a pretty wide spectrum and from both perspectives of how companies are approaching this.
我们从两个角度看到了相当广泛的公司如何解决这个问题。
I'm sure everybody's seen that AI, we've been calling them the AI manifesto memos from CEOs out there that proclaim, "We are now AI-native," in some grandiose way, but behind the scenes, there's actually some incredibly stark differences in the actual teeth of what backs up those memos and backs up those executive decrees that we should all be AI.
我相信每个人都见过人工智能，我们一直将它们称为首席执行官的人工智能宣言备忘录，以某种宏大的方式宣称“我们现在是人工智能原生的”，但在幕后，实际上在支持这些备忘录和支持我们都应该成为人工智能的行政命令的实际牙齿上存在着一些令人难以置信的明显差异。
Brian Balfour: Just to point out a few of them, which is, one is that I think the most impactful thing that you can do is form really hard constraints.
Brian Balfour：我只想指出其中的一些，其中之一是我认为你能做的最有影响力的事情就是形成真正严格的约束。
There's other parts that's like, okay, you want to communicate this, you want to establish an owner of who's going to drive this, you want to build an incentives and rewards, and you see this all playing out in things like building it into your career ladders, or some people are starting to introduce this as questions into their performance reviews, all those types of pieces.
还有其他部分，好吧，你想传达这一点，你想建立一个负责人来推动这一点，你想建立激励和奖励，你会看到这一切都在诸如将其构建到你的职业阶梯之类的事情中发挥作用，或者有些人开始将其作为问题引入他们的绩效评估中，所有这些类型的部分。
But the thing that is actually moving the needle are the companies that are defining incredibly hard constraints.
但真正起到推动作用的是那些制定了极其严格的限制的公司。
Brian Balfour: One company that we worked with developed this constraint that they benchmarked against other companies of their revenue size and the team sizes for those stages, and they set a benchmark that we will be one-fifth, each of our functions will be one-fifth the size.
Brian Balfour：我们合作的一家公司制定了这一限制，他们将其他公司的收入规模和这些阶段的团队规模作为基准，他们设定了一个基准，我们将是五分之一，我们的每个职能部门的规模将是五分之一。
What that did is it created a constraint that you couldn't hire above that level, and it forced people to essentially find ways to adopt AI and do things to replace that.
这样做的结果是，它造成了一种限制，即你无法雇用高于该水平的人员，并且它迫使人们本质上寻找采用人工智能的方法并采取一些措施来取代它。
So that was one.
这就是其中之一。
Brian Balfour: You've seen these other ones, I can't remember from what company, that might've been Shopify or another, who was like, you are not allowed new headcount until you prove to us that you are not able to accomplish this with AI.
Brian Balfour：你见过这些其他公司，我不记得来自哪家公司，可能是 Shopify 或其他公司，他们说，在你向我们证明你无法通过人工智能实现这一目标之前，你不被允许增加新的员工。
That's another hard constraint.
这是另一个硬性约束。
But you also see these other constraints on a smaller level, which is executives saying, "I will not do a product review or review a PRD unless it comes with three prototypes." Something like that.
但你也会在较小的层面上看到这些其他限制，即高管们说，“我不会进行产品审查或审查 PRD，除非它配备三个原型。”类似的事情。
That's the hardest one.
这是最难的。
Those are the biggest constraints.
这些是最大的限制。
Brian Balfour: I think the biggest change that I'm seeing is, and the things that separates out the top few percent making this change and everybody else is essentially making the hardest decisions, and that hardest decision is going to come down to exiting people.
Brian Balfour：我认为我所看到的最大变化是，将做出这一变化的前几%与其他人区分开来，本质上是在做出最艰难的决定，而最艰难的决定将归结为退出人员。
In every transformation, what we see is essentially three groups of folks.
在每一次转变中，我们看到的本质上都是三组人。
We call them the catalysts, the people leading the charge, the people who are experimenting, doing this on their own time, all that kind of stuff.
我们称他们为催化剂，带头的人，正在进行实验的人，用自己的时间做这件事的人，诸如此类的东西。
Brian Balfour: You then have what we call your converts.
Brian Balfour：这样你就拥有了我们所说的皈依者。
These are folks that will make the transformation, they will adapt, but they need structure, they need permission, they need a clear outline, they need a clear plan.
这些人将进行转变，他们将适应，但他们需要结构，他们需要许可，他们需要一个清晰的轮廓，他们需要一个清晰的计划。
I don't say this in a negative way, it's just that that's how some people operate.
我这么说并不是消极的，只是有些人就是这么做的。
That's where things like all the things that we were talking about before, which was the decree, the permission, the clear budgets, the rewards, all of those types of things.
这就是我们之前讨论过的所有事情，即法令、许可、明确的预算、奖励，所有这些类型的事情。
Brian Balfour: But then, inevitably you have a certain percentage that are anchors.
布莱恩·贝尔福：但是，不可避免地会有一定比例的锚。
They're dragging their feet, they're silently creating friction in the background and all those pieces.
他们拖拖拉拉，默默地在背景和所有这些碎片中制造摩擦。
There's a big difference in how I think companies are treating and thinking about their strategy for those folks.
我认为公司对待和思考针对这些人的策略的方式存在很大差异。
One group is like, ah, we're going to work with them very passively.
一组人会说，啊，我们将非常被动地与他们合作。
Others have set a hard deadline.
其他人则设定了严格的最后期限。
They're either going to make the transformation by X date or we're going to exit folks.
他们要么在 X 日期之前进行转型，要么我们就退出。
Brian Balfour: A lot of people look at this as being really harsh.
Brian Balfour：很多人认为这非常严厉。
I think a lot of people would think that, especially individuals, but let me explain it from more of a CEO perspective.
我想很多人都会这么想，尤其是个人，但让我更多地从首席执行官的角度来解释一下。
A lot of these companies are seeing this AI transformation, the ones that are taking it more seriously, as this isn't adopting new tools, this isn't a light change.
许多公司都看到了这种人工智能转型，并且更加认真地对待它，因为这并不是采用新工具，这不是一个轻微的变化。
This is a fundamental culture change of how we operate as a company.
这是我们公司运营方式的根本性文化变革。
You can't have 20, 30%, whatever meaningful number of it is of your company trying to operate in a completely different way, in a completely different culture.
你不可能让 20%、30% 的公司尝试以完全不同的方式、在完全不同的文化中运营，无论其中的多少有意义。
Brian Balfour: Cultures thrive on density, and that's why there's sometimes the best ones feel like cults.
Brian Balfour：文化因密度而繁荣，这就是为什么有时最好的文化让人感觉像是邪教。
As a result, from that perspective, it's like, hey, for us to be successful, for this to be the best thing for all employees, we all need to be operating around the same culture of principles and stuff.
因此，从这个角度来看，就像，嘿，为了我们取得成功，为了这对所有员工来说是最好的事情，我们都需要围绕相同的原则和内容文化进行运营。
If that's not you anymore, then we're defining a plan to exit it.
如果那不再是你，那么我们正在制定一个退出计划。
Brian Balfour: I would say that less than 10% of companies we see are taking this hard stance, but I would say they are probably the ones that are farthest along getting the most adoption and are seeing the most results of the ones that are taking those hard stances.
Brian Balfour：我想说的是，我们看到的公司中只有不到 10% 采取了这种强硬立场，但我想说的是，他们可能是那些在采用这些强硬立场的公司中走得最远、获得最多采用的公司，并且看到了最多成果的公司。
There's a bunch of other stuff I could talk about, but that's the high level of what we've seen across a bunch of different companies.
我还有很多其他的东西可以谈论，但这是我们在许多不同的公司中看到的高水平的东西。
Lenny Rachitsky: That is incredibly interesting.
Lenny Rachitsky：这非常有趣。
I'm glad we went there.
我很高兴我们去了那里。
I have a newsletter post coming out soon, probably before this episode, that touches on a lot of advice along these lines.
我很快就会发布一篇时事通讯，可能是在这一集之前，其中涉及到了很多类似的建议。
I am excited for you guys to keep seeing these insights into companies and sharing more of this because this is I think what a lot of people are looking for, just like things aren't quite clicking at our company.
我很高兴你们能继续看到这些对公司的见解并分享更多，因为我认为这是很多人都在寻找的东西，就像我们公司的事情不太顺利一样。
We keep hearing everyone just getting so much more productive.
我们不断听到每个人的工作效率都变得越来越高。
All these companies are running more efficiently and it's not working here.
所有这些公司都在更加高效地运营，但在这里却行不通。
I think that's the kind of advice a lot of people are looking for, so thank you for sharing all that.
我认为这是很多人都在寻找的建议，所以感谢您分享所有这些。
Lenny Rachitsky: Brian, is there anything else that you wanted to touch on?
Lenny Rachitsky：Brian，您还有什么想谈的吗？
Anything else you wanted to leave listeners with before we get to our very exciting lightning round?
在我们开始激动人心的闪电回合之前，您还有什么想留给听众的吗？
Brian Balfour: Well, actually, just a couple more points on this topic we should go.
Brian Balfour：嗯，实际上，我们应该就这个话题再讲几点。
There's probably two more things I would say about this.
对此我可能还有两件事要说。
One is that, if you're a CEO listening to this, I would say that most CEOs or most executives are incredibly disconnected from the actual AI adoption taking place inside their companies.
其一，如果你是一名首席执行官，我会说，大多数首席执行官或大多数高管与公司内部实际采用的人工智能脱节。
I think a lot of executives who have done these decrees and all that kind of stuff think it's happening naturally, but we talked to both groups.
我认为很多执行过这些法令和所有类似事情的高管都认为这是自然发生的，但我们与这两个群体进行了交谈。
We talked to tons of end users and we talked to tons of executives.
我们与大量的最终用户进行了交谈，并与大量的高管进行了交谈。
Brian Balfour: The story we hear from the end users, the PMs, the eng, all that kind of stuff that we talk to using all this stuff, one of the main questions we ask them is, if we're talking to somebody who's picked up a prototyping tool, say, "Well, how many other people on the product and design team are using this?" Almost 90% of the time it's like, "Ah, it's me and this one other person," and everybody else hasn't taken it up.
Brian Balfour：我们从最终用户、产品经理、工程师以及我们使用所有这些东西进行交谈的所有人员那里听到的故事，我们问他们的主要问题之一是，如果我们正在与使用原型工具的人交谈，请说：“那么，产品和设计团队中有多少人正在使用这个工具？”几乎 90% 的时间都是这样，“啊，是我和另一个人，”而其他人都没有接受它。
So there's a huge disconnect.
所以存在巨大的脱节。
Brian Balfour: We heard one story, and I can't say the name, but it's a company we all know.
Brian Balfour：我们听说过一个故事，我不能说出名字，但这是一家我们都知道的公司。
It's a major tech company, a tech-forward company.
这是一家大型科技公司，一家技术领先的公司。
CEO's been out there talking about being AI-native.
首席执行官一直在谈论人工智能原生。
We talked to one of their principal PMs.
我们采访了他们的一位主要产品经理。
Person was early to the prototyping tools.
Person 很早就接触到了原型设计工具。
This person shared a prototype with the designer, the eng manager.
此人与设计师、工程经理共享了一个原型。
The designer and eng manager escalated it to the VPs.
设计师和工程经理将其上报给副总裁。
It caused this whole conversation.
这引发了整个谈话。
Month later, it was still stalling out.
一个月后，事情仍然停滞不前。
This PM happened to then attend a happy hour where the CEO was at and approached the CEO and told the CEO about the experiment that they were running with prototyping and stuff, and the CEO was like, "This is fantastic.
这位产品经理碰巧参加了首席执行官在场的欢乐时光，他走近首席执行官，告诉首席执行官他们正在进行原型设计等实验，首席执行官说：“这太棒了。
Where is it at right now?" He was like, "Oh, well, X, Y, Z happened." The CEO had no idea.
现在在哪儿？”他说，“哦，好吧，X、Y、Z 发生了。”首席执行官不知道。
And then the CEO is like, "Okay, let me take care of it," and then the next day, it happened.
然后首席执行官说，“好吧，让我来处理它”，然后第二天，事情就发生了。
Brian Balfour: So one is that you have to go to the ground floor on this stuff.
Brian Balfour：所以，你必须到一楼去处理这些事情。
Some of the best companies like Shopify and others are measuring actual adoption and usage.
Shopify 等一些最好的公司正在衡量实际采用和使用情况。
They've gone to the extreme on that front to get a bunch of signals and close to the ground.
他们在这方面已经做到了极致，以获得大量信号并接近地面。
It just goes to show that this is...
它只是表明这是...
I don't think we want to talk about going founder mode, but the reality is it's not just about getting into the weeds of your product, but with something this sizable, you got to get into the weeds of the transformation to really understand what's going on and adopt it.
我认为我们不想谈论创始人模式，但现实是，这不仅仅是深入了解产品的情况，而且对于如此规模的产品，你必须深入了解转型的情况，才能真正了解正在发生的事情并采用它。
That's point number one.
这是第一点。
Brian Balfour: The second point I would say is Fareed, we do this podcast called Unsolicited Feedback, Fareed Mosavat had this great quote on it.
Brian Balfour：我要说的第二点是 Fareed，我们做了一个名为“Unsolicited Feedback”的播客，Fareed Mosavat 引用了这句话。
He was like, "Look, your output is constrained by the slowest part of your system." That stuck in my head because it's absolutely true.
他说，“看，你的输出受到系统中最慢部分的限制。”这句话深深地印在我的脑海里，因为这绝对是真的。
If you think about AI adoption as a system, there's all parts of the system that could be slowing adoption.
如果你将人工智能的采用视为一个系统，那么系统的所有部分都可能会减缓采用速度。
It might be that people don't feel permission or they don't have the budget or they don't have the knowledge, all these types of things.
可能是人们感觉不到许可，或者他们没有预算，或者他们没有知识，所有这些类型的事情。
In a lot of these cases, it's things like IT, legal, procurement are the slowest part of the friction and are setting the pace of all of this output.
在很多情况下，IT、法律、采购等问题是摩擦中最慢的部分，并且决定了所有这些产出的速度。
Brian Balfour: You can also see this in just product teams.
Brian Balfour：你也可以在产品团队中看到这一点。
There's been all this talk about product managers are becoming the new bottleneck because engineers are speeding up.
人们一直在谈论产品经理正在成为新的瓶颈，因为工程师正在加速。
Well, that's because people are speeding up one part of the product system and not the other parts, which makes sense.
嗯，那是因为人们正在加速产品系统的某一部分而不是其他部分，这是有道理的。
They adopted all of this tooling for engineers because they're the biggest head count and the most expensive and all that type of stuff, but product is an output of design, PMs, and engineering.
他们为工程师采用了所有这些工具，因为他们的人员数量最多，也是最昂贵的，但产品是设计、产品经理和工程的输出。
The system is there not to produce code, it's to ship product, and shipping product is the function of those three things.
系统的存在不是为了生成代码，而是为了交付产品，而交付产品就是这三件事的功能。
Brian Balfour: If you just accelerate one part of the system, you're just going to move to the bottleneck to another part and your actual product output, the output of the system doesn't accelerate, either.
Brian Balfour：如果你只是加速系统的一个部分，你只会将瓶颈转移到另一部分，而你的实际产品输出，系统的输出也不会加速。
I think people have to really understand those two things: what is actually happening on the ground floor, and what is the slowest part?
我认为人们必须真正理解这两件事：底层到底发生了什么，最慢的部分是什么？
What is the thing that is causing the slowest part of the adoption?
导致采用速度最慢的因素是什么？
Just attack them ruthlessly if you're really serious about making this transition.
如果你真的想实现这一转变，就无情地攻击他们吧。
Lenny Rachitsky: What a wild time we're living through.
Lenny Rachitsky：我们正在经历一段多么疯狂的时光啊。
So much changes.
变化如此之大。
Lenny Rachitsky: All these ways that we're all so used to, okay, this is how we do it.
Lenny Rachitsky：我们都已经习惯了所有这些方式，好吧，这就是我们的做法。
Brian Balfour: Yeah.
布莱恩·贝尔福：是的。
It's exciting and exhausting at the same time, man.
这既令人兴奋又让人筋疲力尽，伙计。
That's how I think about it.
我就是这么想的。
Lenny Rachitsky: Such a simple way of describing the road.
Lenny Rachitsky：描述道路的方式非常简单。
Lenny Rachitsky: Oh, my God.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：哦，天哪。
Okay, Brian, is there anything else before we get through our very exciting lightning round?
好的，布莱恩，在我们完成令人兴奋的闪电回合之前还有其他事情吗？
Brian Balfour: That's it.
布莱恩·贝尔福：就是这样。
Let's do lightning round.
让我们做闪电轮。
Lenny Rachitsky: Ding, ding, ding.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：叮，叮，叮。
All right, Brian, I've got five questions for you.
好吧，布莱恩，我有五个问题要问你。
Are you ready?
你准备好了吗？
Lenny Rachitsky: Okay.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：好的。
What are two or three books that you find yourself recommending most to other people?
您发现自己最向其他人推荐的两三本书是什么？
Brian Balfour: My God honest answer is that I have not had the time to finish an entire book since I had my second child.
布莱恩·贝尔福：天哪，诚实的回答是，自从我生了第二个孩子以来，我还没有时间读完一整本书。
From a complete book standpoint, I have not been able to...
从整本书的角度来看，我无法...
Things that I actively read on a regular basis, just other content out there that I'll throw out there is, gosh, Jamin Ball from Altimeter Capital writes this great newsletter called Clouded Judgment, which is mixture of market thoughts as well as market stats.
我定期积极阅读的内容，以及我要扔掉的其他内容，天哪，Altimeter Capital 的 Jamin Ball 撰写了这份名为“云判断”的精彩时事通讯，其中混合了市场想法和市场统计数据。
That's really useful to help me keep a pulse on the market.
这对于帮助我掌握市场脉搏非常有用。
I was just reading through some stuff from NFX that's been pretty good lately on all of this.
我刚刚读了 NFX 的一些东西，最近在这方面都非常好。
I know James Currier and I, we lived a lot of the same cycles through social and stuff, so I tend to identify with that.
我认识詹姆斯·柯里尔和我，我们在社交和其他方面经历了很多相同的循环，所以我倾向于认同这一点。
I don't know, those are two things that I love reading.
我不知道，这是我喜欢读的两本书。
Brian Balfour: Sorry, I'll give one more shout-out to a different podcast, which is from two guys at Spark Capital, Nabeel Hyatt, which I know from my early Boston days, and Fraser, sorry, I'm blanking on the last name right now, who was Head of Product at OpenAI, and they've got a great format where it's just those two riffing on some ideas and stuff.
Brian Balfour：抱歉，我要再向另一个播客大声喊叫，这是来自 Spark Capital 的两个人，Nabeel Hyatt（我在波士顿早期就认识的）和 Fraser，抱歉，我现在记不清姓氏了，他是 OpenAI 的产品主管，他们有一个很棒的格式，就是这两个人对一些想法和东西的即兴发挥。
I highly suggest that one.
我强烈推荐那个。
I like that one a lot.
我非常喜欢那个。
Lenny Rachitsky: Here's my reading tip that has changed my reading habits.
Lenny Rachitsky：这是我的阅读技巧，它改变了我的阅读习惯。
Bryan Johnson, the longevity guy, he has this advice for better sleep, which includes, before you go to sleep, read for 10 minutes in bed.
布莱恩·约翰逊 (Bryan Johnson) 是一位长寿人士，他提出了改善睡眠的建议，其中包括在睡觉前在床上阅读 10 分钟。
Brian Balfour: It does put you to sleep.
Brian Balfour：它确实会让你入睡。
I don't feel like I retain anything that I read that close to bed, though.
不过，我不觉得自己能记住睡前读过的任何东西。
Do you feel like you retain it?
你觉得你还保留着它吗？
Lenny Rachitsky: I do, I do.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：我愿意，我愿意。
I'm reading fiction.
我正在看小说。
It's nonfiction.
这是非小说类作品。
Sorry.
对不起。
You want to read something calm, not like I'm learning.
你想读一些平静的东西，而不是像我正在学习的那样。
I'm reading fiction and it's really nice.
我正在读小说，它真的很好。
Knowing that this is going to help me sleep better makes me motivated.
知道这会帮助我睡得更好，这让我充满动力。
Brian Balfour: There's an incentive.
Brian Balfour：有一个激励因素。
There's a reward there.
那里有奖励。
Brian Balfour: They're talking about rewards and creating behavior change, yeah.
Brian Balfour：他们正在谈论奖励和创造行为改变，是的。
Lenny Rachitsky: Exactly.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：确实如此。
The reason to do it is this whole thing is you want to get to low resting heart rate, and that helps lower your resting heart.
这样做的原因是您想要达到较低的静息心率，这有助于降低您的静息心率。
Brian Balfour: I've got some other sleep tips on that front if you want to go down that path, but we'll save that for you.
Brian Balfour：如果您想沿着这条路走下去，我还有一些关于这方面的其他睡眠技巧，但我们会为您保留。
Lenny Rachitsky: Please, for the third podcast.
Lenny Rachitsky：请收听第三个播客。
Okay, next question.
好的，下一个问题。
Do you have a favorite recent movie or TV show that you really recently enjoyed?
您最近有最喜欢的电影或电视节目吗？
Brian Balfour: It's not new, but I just rewatched Silicon Valley that I hadn't watched in a number of times.
Brian Balfour：这不是什么新鲜事，但我只是重新看了很多遍没看过的《硅谷》。
It's painful because the first few seasons, I went through almost every one of those moments in my first startup, like hiring the gray-haired CEO, the funding falling through at the last second, all the crazy stuff, but going back and watching that, there's just some extra nuances and stuff that I feel like they wrote really well that I thought was really good.
这很痛苦，因为在最初的几季中，我几乎经历了我第一次创业时的每一个时刻，比如聘请白发苍苍的首席执行官，最后一秒资金落空，所有疯狂的事情，但回头看，有一些额外的细微差别和我觉得他们写得很好的东西，我认为真的很好。
I've really been watching that.
我真的一直在关注这个。
Brian Balfour: The other thing that I've watched is just more of a just pure entertainment, calming thing, turn the brain off is Owen Wilson's new show on Apple TV, Stick, which is about him as a former professional golfer and all that.
Brian Balfour：我看过的另一件事是欧文·威尔逊 (Owen Wilson) 在 Apple TV 上的新节目《Stick》，它纯粹是一种娱乐、平静的东西，让大脑放松下来，该节目讲述了他作为一名前职业高尔夫球手的故事。
I won't ruin the show and stuff, but it's a very nice calming, little bit fun type of show.
我不会破坏这个节目之类的，但这是一个非常好的平静，有点有趣的节目类型。
Lenny Rachitsky: I've been seeing that on my Apple TV.
Lenny Rachitsky：我在 Apple TV 上看到过这一点。
Maybe I should check it out.
也许我应该检查一下。
Good tip.
好提示。
Do you have a favorite product you've recently discovered that you really love?
您最近发现了您真正喜欢的最喜欢的产品吗？
It could be a gadget, it could be a app on your phone, it could be something in your computer.
它可以是一个小工具，可以是手机上的应用程序，也可以是计算机中的某个东西。
It could be nothing at all.
它可能什么都不是。
Brian Balfour: You can't see it, but I just changed my whole setup.
Brian Balfour：你看不到它，但我只是改变了我的整个设置。
Now I have a UltraGear super-wide curved screen with a very nice standing desk from, I believe it's called Ergonofis.
现在我有一个 UltraGear 超宽曲面屏幕和一张非常漂亮的站立式办公桌，我相信它的名字叫 Ergonofis。
Er.
呃。
Brian Balfour: Yes.
布莱恩·贝尔福：是的。
I think it's Ergonofis, E-R-G-O-N-O-F-I-S.
我认为是 Ergonofis，E-R-G-O-N-O-F-I-S。
Brian Balfour: It's a very nice, sleek standing desk.
Brian Balfour：这是一张非常漂亮、时尚的站立式办公桌。
Very stable, very quiet.
非常稳定，非常安静。
Very much enjoy.
非常享受。
Lenny Rachitsky: Excellent tip.
Lenny Rachitsky：非常好的建议。
And the curved monitor, very cool.
还有曲面显示器，非常酷。
Okay, two more questions.
好吧，还有两个问题。
Do you have a life motto that you often come back to and find useful in work or in life, something you share with folks, something that you think about when times are hard or just generally?
您有没有经常回顾并发现在工作或生活中有用的人生格言，您与他人分享的东西，您在困难时期或一般情况下思考的东西？
Brian Balfour: Look, it's a little cliche at this point, but it's somewhere around here, I used to have the quote printed out about the man in the arena.
布莱恩·贝尔福：听着，这有点陈词滥调，但它就在这里的某个地方，我曾经打印过关于竞技场上那个人的引言。
Especially in times like this where so many things are changing and there's so much competition, but so much opportunity for great, I really both respect and enjoy the game and spending time with folks that are in the arena figuring this stuff out, tinkering with things.
尤其是在这样的时代，很多事情都在变化，竞争也如此激烈，但优秀的机会也如此多，我真的既尊重又享受这项运动，并花时间与竞技场上的人们一起解决这些问题，修补东西。
That's what I keep coming back to, especially been at Reforge for 10 years, that's a good portion of my life, and we've gone through some great periods and some tough periods, so I tend to come back to that.
这就是我不断回顾的内容，尤其是在 Reforge 工作了 10 年，这是我生命中很重要的一部分，我们经历了一些伟大的时期和一些艰难的时期，所以我倾向于回顾这一点。
Lenny Rachitsky: And that's what always separated Reforge from so much other content and advice is it's people in the arena sharing their wisdom, not just a bunch of influencers.
Lenny Rachitsky：这就是 Reforge 与众多其他内容和建议的区别，因为它是舞台上的人们分享他们的智慧，而不仅仅是一群有影响力的人。
It's sad that Chamath made that quote so cringey.
令人遗憾的是查马斯的这句话如此令人难堪。
Brian Balfour: I know, I know.
布莱恩·贝尔福：我知道，我知道。
That's why I said it's a little cliche cringe right now.
这就是为什么我说现在有点陈词滥调。
Lenny Rachitsky: Final question.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：最后一个问题。
Brian, you don't know this, but your parenting advice on Adam Fishman's podcast-
布莱恩，你不知道这一点，但你在亚当·菲什曼的播客上提出的育儿建议——
Lenny Rachitsky: ...
莱尼·拉奇茨基：……
really impacted my parenting philosophy, specifically this line you had about independence.
确实影响了我的育儿理念，特别是你关于独立的这句话。
Lenny Rachitsky: I'd love for you to just share that insight about how you think about raising kids,
Lenny Rachitsky：我希望您能分享一下您如何看待抚养孩子的见解，
Brian Balfour: I wish I could remember where I grabbed this from so I could attribute it properly, but basically, the philosophy is, if you think about going from when they're born until they're essentially 18 and leave the home, your job as a parent is to essentially make them more and more independent.
Brian Balfour：我希望我能记得我从哪里得到这个，这样我就可以正确地归因它，但基本上，这个哲学是，如果你考虑从他们出生到他们基本上 18 岁离开家，你作为父母的工作就是让他们变得越来越独立。
What that involves is continuously looking for opportunities for them to make even bigger and riskier decisions for themselves as they grow up and you're there as a support to those decisions, but letting them make those decisions on their own so that by the time they're 18, they are a fully independent person able to think through those decisions themselves.
这涉及到在他们成长过程中不断寻找机会让他们为自己做出更大、更冒险的决定，而你会为这些决定提供支持，但让他们自己做出这些决定，这样到他们 18 岁时，他们就成为一个完全独立的人，能够自己思考这些决定。
Brian Balfour: Now, look, my sons are young.
布莱恩·贝尔福：现在，看，我的儿子们还年轻。
They're five and three, so it's not like I'm having them make life and death decisions or where we might buy our next house or stuff like that, but it's even small things at this age of...
他们分别是五岁和三岁，所以我不会让他们做出生死攸关的决定，或者我们可能在哪里购买下一套房子或类似的东西，但在这个年纪，这甚至都是小事......
My oldest, five and a half, is really starting to learn and get curious about money and how you spend money and where new things come from and how you earn money.
我最大的孩子五岁半，真的开始学习并对金钱以及如何花钱、新事物从何而来以及如何赚钱感到好奇。
Rather than just buying things for him, he's got money from his grandparents and stuff saved up, and we can be like, "Okay, you can buy that thing, but you're going to spend this," and try to teach him the consequences and all that kind of stuff, and then when he breaks something...
他不只是给他买东西，他从祖父母那里得到了钱，还有积蓄起来的东西，我们可以说，“好吧，你可以买那个东西，但你要花这个，”并试图教他后果和所有类似的东西，然后当他打破东西时......
Brian Balfour: It's just small things like that, but thinking about the time from zero to 18 as this spectrum of independence and being a supporting role in what you're essentially doing is you're trying to move as many decisions, the percentage of decisions you make for them down to zero by the time that they're 18.
Brian Balfour：这只是诸如此类的小事情，但从零到 18 岁的这段时间，你可以将其视为独立的范围，并在你本质上做的事情中扮演支持角色，就是你试图做出尽可能多的决定，到他们 18 岁时，你为他们做出的决定的百分比降至零。
That's something that I've kept in the back of my head since really seeing that.
自从真正看到这一点以来，这件事我一直牢记在心。
Lenny Rachitsky: Thank you for sharing that.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：谢谢您分享这一点。
I know I didn't tell you that I was going to ask you about this, so that was a beautiful way of summarizing it.
我知道我没有告诉你我要问你这个问题，所以这是一个很好的总结方式。
Brian Balfour: Yeah, I couldn't remember that whole podcast.
Brian Balfour：是的，我不记得整个播客了。
I had no idea what I said, but-
我不知道我说了什么，但是——
Lenny Rachitsky: Brian, two final questions.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：布莱恩，最后两个问题。
Where can folks find you if they want to reach out and where can they find the products you guys offer?
如果人们想联系您，可以在哪里找到您？他们可以在哪里找到您提供的产品？
Whatever you want to plug.
想插什么就插什么。
Also, how can listeners be useful to you?
另外，听众如何对你有用？
Brian Balfour: Check out reforge.com.
Brian Balfour：查看 reforge.com。
Check out our new products like Reforge Insights.
查看我们的新产品，例如 Reforge Insights。
They're on the website.
他们在网站上。
You can find me personally, my writing, including a bunch of the stuff that we talked about today now on Substack.
你可以在 Substack 上找到我个人、我的文章，包括我们今天讨论的一堆内容。
Just recently moved.
最近刚搬家。
You can either go to my website, brianbalfour.com, where I have some info or just the blog.brianbalfour.com where all of my new writing is taking place.
您可以访问我的网站 brianbalfour.com，那里有一些信息，也可以访问 blog.brianbalfour.com，那里是我所有新写作的地方。
Those are the two major pieces.
这是两个主要部分。
Brian Balfour: Last but not least is that, as I mentioned, Fareed Mosavat, who I used to work with at Slack, we have this fun podcast.
Brian Balfour：最后但并非最不重要的是，正如我提到的，Fareed Mosavat，我曾经在 Slack 与他一起工作，我们有这个有趣的播客。
The two of us get on there and riff like we were having dinner every couple of weeks about different product and strategy types of things.
我们两个人就在那里，即兴发挥，就像我们每隔几周吃一次晚餐，讨论不同的产品和策略类型的事情。
It's a fun format for us, so if that's something you enjoy, it's called Unsolicited Feedback, where we give feedback and advice to nobody that ever asked for it.
这对我们来说是一种有趣的形式，所以如果您喜欢这种形式，它被称为“主动反馈”，我们会向从未提出要求的人提供反馈和建议。
Lenny Rachitsky: That's amazing.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：太棒了。
Perfect title.
完美的标题。
Brian, thank you so much for being here.
布莱恩，非常感谢你来到这里。
Brian Balfour: Yeah, thanks for having me again.
Brian Balfour：是的，谢谢你再次邀请我。
This is great.
这太棒了。
Lenny Rachitsky: Bye, everyone.
莱尼·拉奇茨基：再见，大家。
Thank you so much for listening.
非常感谢您的聆听。
If you found this valuable, you can subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast app.
如果您发现这很有价值，您可以在 Apple Podcasts、Spotify 或您最喜欢的播客应用程序上订阅该节目。
Also, please consider giving us a rating or leaving a review, as that really helps other listeners find the podcast.
另外，请考虑给我们评分或留下评论，因为这确实有助于其他听众找到播客。
You can find all past episodes or learn more about the show at lennyspodcast.com.
您可以在 lennyspodcast.com 上找到所有过去的剧集或了解有关该节目的更多信息。
See you in the next episode.
下一集见。