'He saved OpenAI, invented the “Like” button, and built Google Maps: Bret Taylor (Sierra)'

Lenny Rachitsky: You're CTO of Meta.

Lenny Rachitsky：您是 Meta 的首席技术官。

You are a co-CEO of Salesforce, you're chairman of the board at OpenAI.

您是 Salesforce 的联合首席执行官，也是 OpenAI 的董事会主席。

How do you think the AI market is going to play out?

您认为人工智能市场将如何发展？

Bret Taylor: The whole market is going to go towards agents.

布雷特·泰勒：整个市场都将走向代理商。

I think the whole market is going to go towards outcomes-based pricing.

我认为整个市场将走向基于结果的定价。

It's just so obviously the correct way to build and sell software.

这显然是构建和销售软件的正确方法。

Lenny Rachitsky: This makes me think about, I had Marc Benioff on the podcast.

Lenny Rachitsky：这让我想到，我在播客上邀请了马克·贝尼奥夫。

You guys were co-CEOs.

你们是联合首席执行官。

He was extremely agent-pilled.

他的经纪人非常多。

Bret Taylor: It's so hard to sell productivity software, which I learned the hard way.

布雷特·泰勒：销售生产力软件非常困难，这是我经过惨痛教训才学到的。

Lenny Rachitsky: What's a story that comes to mind when you think about your biggest mistake?

Lenny Rachitsky：当你想到自己最大的错误时，你会想到什么故事？

Bret Taylor: I was the product manager for, it was called Google Local had a pretty tough product review with Marissa and Larry, and to not do that well with a link from the Google homepage is embarrassing.

Bret Taylor：我是 Google Local 的产品经理，与 Marissa 和 Larry 进行了相当严格的产品审查，如果没有通过 Google 主页的链接做好这一工作，那就太尴尬了。

Lenny Rachitsky: I think it's really empowering for people to hear it's possible to succeed in spite of a massive failure like this.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：我认为，尽管经历了这样的巨大失败，但听到人们仍然有可能成功，这真的很鼓舞人心。

Bret Taylor: They gave me another shot to do the V2 of it that resulted in Google Maps.

Bret Taylor：他们给了我另一个机会去做它的 V2，最终产生了 Google 地图。

We got about 10 million people using it on the first day.

第一天就有大约 1000 万人使用它。

Lenny Rachitsky: What mindset contributed to you being successful in such a variety of roles?

Lenny Rachitsky：是什么心态让您在如此多的角色中取得成功？

Bret Taylor: Waking up every morning, what is the most impactful thing I could do today?

布雷特·泰勒：每天早上醒来，我今天能做的最有影响力的事情是什么？

Lenny Rachitsky: Today, my guest is Bret Taylor.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：今天，我的客人是布雷特·泰勒。

Bret is an absolute legendary builder and founder.

布雷特是一位绝对传奇的建设者和创始人。

He co-created Google Maps at Google.

他在谷歌共同创建了谷歌地图。

He co-founded the social network, FriendFeed invented the like button and the real-time newsfeed, which he sold to Facebook.

他是社交网络 FriendFeed 的联合创始人，发明了点赞按钮和实时新闻源，并将其卖给了 Facebook。

He then became CTO at Facebook.

随后他成为 Facebook 的首席技术官。

He then started a productivity company called Quip, which he sold to Salesforce for $750 million.

随后，他创办了一家名为 Quip 的生产力公司，并以 7.5 亿美元的价格将其卖给了 Salesforce。

He then became co-CEO of Salesforce.

随后，他成为 Salesforce 的联合首席执行官。

He's also currently chairman of the board at OpenAI.

他目前还是 OpenAI 的董事会主席。

At one point he was chairman of the board at Twitter.

他曾一度担任 Twitter 董事会主席。

Today, co-founder and CEO of Sierra an AI started building agent to help companies with customer service sales and more.

今天，Sierra an AI 的联合创始人兼首席执行官开始构建代理来帮助公司进行客户服务销售等。

Lenny Rachitsky: In our conversation, we cover so much ground, including what skills and mindsets have most helped Bret be so successful in so many roles, why we're all still sleeping on the impact that agents are going to have on the business world.

Lenny Rachitsky：在我们的谈话中，我们涵盖了很多内容，包括哪些技能和心态最能帮助布雷特在这么多角色中取得如此成功，为什么我们仍然对代理商将对商业世界产生的影响感到困惑。

How coding is going to change in the coming years, where the biggest opportunities remain for startups, lessons on pricing and go-to-market in AI, the story behind the like button and so much more.

未来几年编码将如何变化、初创公司仍然面临最大的机遇、人工智能定价和上市的经验教训、“点赞”按钮背后的故事等等。

This is a truly epic conversation with a legendary builder.

这是与一位传奇建造者的真正史诗般的对话。

Lenny Rachitsky: If you enjoy this podcast, don't forget to subscribe and follow it in your favorite podcasting app or YouTube.

Lenny Rachitsky：如果您喜欢这个播客，请不要忘记订阅并在您最喜欢的播客应用程序或 YouTube 中关注它。

Also, if you become an annual subscriber of my newsletter, you get a year free of a bunch of incredible products, including Replit, Lovable, Bolt, n8n, Linear, Superhuman, Descript, Wispr Flow, Gamma, Perplexity, Warp, Granola, Magic Patterns, Raycast, ChatPRD, Mobbin and more.

此外，如果您成为我的时事通讯的年度订阅者，您将获得一年免费的一堆令人难以置信的产品，包括 Replit、Lovable、Bolt、n8n、Linear、Super human、Descript、Wispr Flow、Gamma、Perplexity、Warp、Granola、Magic Patterns、Raycast、ChatPRD、Mobbin 等。

Check it out at Lenny'snewsletter.com and click bundle.

请访问 Lenny'snewsletter.com 查看并单击“捆绑”。

With that, I bring you Bret Taylor.

接下来，我为您带来布雷特·泰勒。

Lenny Rachitsky: This episode is brought to you by CodeRabbit, the AI code review platform transforming how engineering teams ship faster with AI without sacrificing code quality.

Lenny Rachitsky：本集由 CodeRabbit 为您带来，CodeRabbit 是一个人工智能代码审查平台，它改变了工程团队在不牺牲代码质量的情况下更快地利用人工智能交付的方式。

Code reviews are critical, but time-consuming CodeRabbit acts as your AI co-pilot providing instant code review comments and potential impacts of every pull request.

代码审查至关重要，但耗时的 CodeRabbit 充当您的 AI 副驾驶，提供即时代码审查评论和每个拉取请求的潜在影响。

Beyond just flagging issues, CodeRabbit provides one click fix suggestions and lets you define custom code quality rules using AST GREP patterns, catching subtle issues that traditional static analysis tools might miss.

除了标记问题之外，CodeRabbit 还提供一键修复建议，并允许您使用 AST GREP 模式定义自定义代码质量规则，捕获传统静态分析工具可能错过的微妙问题。

Lenny Rachitsky: Coderabbit also provides free AI code reviews directly in the IDE.

Lenny Rachitsky：Coderabbit 还直接在 IDE 中提供免费的 AI 代码审查。

It's available in VS. Code, Cursor and Windsurf.

VS 中可用。代码、光标和风帆。

CodeRabbit has so far reviewed more than 10 million PRs installed on 1 million repositories and is used by over 70,000 open source projects.

迄今为止，CodeRabbit 已审查了安装在 100 万个存储库上的超过 1000 万个 PR，并被超过 70,000 个开源项目使用。

Get CodeRabbit for free for an entire year at CodeRabbit.ai using code, Lenny.

使用代码 Lenny 在 CodeRabbit.ai 上免费获取 CodeRabbit 一整年。

That's CodeRabbit.ai.

这就是 CodeRabbit.ai。

Lenny Rachitsky: This episode is brought to you by Basecamp.

Lenny Rachitsky：本集由 Basecamp 为您带来。

Basecamp is the famously straightforward project management system from 37signals.

Basecamp 是 37signals 出品的著名的简单项目管理系统。

Most project management systems are either inadequate or frustratingly complex, but Basecamp is refreshingly clear.

大多数项目管理系统要么不充分，要么复杂得令人沮丧，但 Basecamp 却清晰得令人耳目一新。

It's simple to get started, easy to organize and Basecamp's visual tools help you see exactly what everyone is working on and how all work is progressing.

它易于上手、易于组织，Basecamp 的可视化工具可帮助您准确了解每个人正在做什么以及所有工作的进展情况。

Keep all your files and conversations about projects directly connected to the projects themselves so that you always know where stuff is and you're not constantly switching contexts.

将有关项目的所有文件和对话直接连接到项目本身，以便您始终知道东西在哪里，并且不会经常切换上下文。

Running a business is hard.

经营企业很难。

Managing your project should be easy.

管理您的项目应该很容易。

I've been a long time fan of what 37signals has been up to and I'm really excited to be sharing this with you.

我长期以来一直是 37signals 的粉丝，很高兴能与您分享这一点。

Sign up for a free account at basecamp.com/Lenny.

在 basecamp.com/Lenny 注册免费帐户。

Get somewhere with Basecamp.

与 Basecamp 一起去某个地方。

Lenny Rachitsky: Bret, thank you so much for being here and welcome to the podcast.

Lenny Rachitsky：布雷特，非常感谢您来到这里，欢迎来到播客。

Lenny Rachitsky: My pleasure.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：我很荣幸。

There's so much that I want to talk about.

我有很多话想说。

You've done so many incredible things over the course of your career.

在您的职业生涯中，您做了很多令人难以置信的事情。

Just boggles the mind, the things that you've done, and we're going to talk about a lot of that sort of stuff, but I want to actually start with the opposite.

你所做的事情令人难以置信，我们将讨论很多此类事情，但我实际上想从相反的事情开始。

I want to talk about a time that you messed up, a time that you screwed up in a big way.

我想谈谈你搞砸的一次，一次你搞砸得很严重的一次。

We have this recurring segment on the podcast called Fail Corner, and so, I thought it'd be fun to just start there before we get into all the great stuff you've done.

我们在播客上有一个反复出现的片段，名为“失败角落”，因此，我认为在我们讨论您所做的所有出色工作之前从这里开始会很有趣。

What's a story that comes to mind when you think about maybe your biggest mistake in building a product?

当您想到构建产品时可能犯的最大错误时，您会想到什么故事？

Bret Taylor: It may not be the biggest, but it was my first prominent mistake as a product manager at Google.

布雷特·泰勒：这可能不是最大的错误，但这是我作为谷歌产品经理的第一个重大错误。

So for me, it feels big because it was very formative for me as a product designer.

所以对我来说，这感觉很重要，因为它对我作为产品设计师的影响非常大。

So I joined Google in late 2002, early 2003, and I was one of the earliest associate product managers at the company and first, was working on the search system, essentially expanding our index from 1 billion webpages to 10 billion, which was a big deal at the time.

所以我在 2002 年底、2003 年初加入了 Google，我是公司最早的副产品经理之一，首先负责搜索系统，基本上将我们的索引从 10 亿个网页扩展到 100 亿个，这在当时是一件大事。

It seems quaint now.

现在看来很奇怪。

Then I did a decent job and so my boss, Marissa Meyer, gave me the opportunity to lead a new product initiative, which was a big bet on me and it was both an opportunity to do something for Google, but I was also being pretty scrutinized just as a young new product manager and the premise given to me was work on local search.

然后我做了一份体面的工作，所以我的老板 Marissa Meyer 给了我领导一项新产品计划的机会，这对我来说是一个很大的赌注，这既是一个为 Google 做点什么的机会，但作为一名年轻的新产​​品经理，我也受到了严格的审查，而给我的前提是本地搜索工作。

Bret Taylor: At the time, the Yellow Pages was still dominant and well, Google was really good at searching the web.

布雷特·泰勒：当时，黄页仍然占主导地位，而且谷歌非常擅长搜索网络。

It wasn't really good for finding a plumber or a restaurant just because it wasn't really a huge part of the internet at the time.

它对于寻找水管工或餐馆来说并不是很好，因为它当时并不是互联网的重要组成部分。

So this content wasn't necessarily on the internet and even if it was, you didn't really want to find plumbers in Manhattan, you wanted to find plumbers in San Francisco, if you're me.

所以这些内容不一定在互联网上，即使是，你也不想在曼哈顿找到水管工，你想在旧金山找到水管工，如果你是我的话。

And so it was both a technical problem and a product problem and a content problem.

所以这既是一个技术问题，也是一个产品问题和一个内容问题。

Bret Taylor: We launched the first version of that product that I was the product manager for, was called Google Local and it was, I'll be a little bit more critical now than I might've been at the time, but it was a little bit of a me too version of Yahoo Yellow Pages, essentially grafting on Yellow Pages search on top of Google Search and with a properly crafted query you could see those listings at the top of your search results but a standalone site at local.google.com.

Bret Taylor：我们推出了我担任产品经理的该产品的第一个版本，称为 Google Local，我现在会比当时更加挑剔，但它有点像雅虎黄页的我的版本，本质上是在 Google 搜索之上嫁接黄页搜索，通过精心设计的查询，您可以在搜索结果顶部看到这些列表，但在 local.google.com 上是一个独立的站点。

Actually, it was an important enough initiative that actually, there was on the Google homepage, it had Web, Images and Local was up there as well, so it's got top bill.

事实上，这是一个足够重要的举措，实际上，在谷歌主页上，它也有网络、图像和本地功能，所以它的排名最高。

Bret Taylor: I mean you could put almost any link on the Google homepage and get a lot of traffic to it.

布雷特·泰勒：我的意思是你可以在谷歌主页上放置几乎任何链接并获得大量流量。

And despite that, it didn't do that well and to not do that well with a link from the Google homepage is embarrassing.

尽管如此，它并没有做得那么好，而且谷歌主页上的链接没有做得那么好是令人尴尬的。

There's not much one can do more than giving you that kind of traffic to give you an add that as a product leader or a product manager.

除了为您提供这种流量来为您提供作为产品负责人或产品经理的附加信息之外，没有什么比这更能做的了。

And the product was fine, it worked, but it really wasn't differentiated.

产品很好，很有效，但确实没有差异化。

And in many ways, I think, again, I think I've had these reflections more sense than at the time, that I had some of the time, but why use this instead of Yahoo Yellow Pages?

在很多方面，我再次认为，我认为我的这些反思比当时更有意义，我曾经有过一些时间，但为什么使用它而不是雅虎黄页呢？

But more than anything else, why use this instead of the Yellow Pages?

但最重要的是，为什么使用它而不是黄页？

It was a digital version of something that had come before.

这是以前的东西的数字版本。

Had a pretty tough product review with Marissa and Larry and others and it was fine.

与玛丽莎和拉里以及其他人进行了相当严格的产品审查，结果很好。

I wasn't about to get fired or something, but it was, I don't know, the shine on my reputation was waning a little bit.

我本来不想被解雇什么的，但我不知道，我的声誉有点减弱了。

Bret Taylor: And they gave me another shot to do a V2 of it and I got the impression it wasn't like my last shot, but I certainly was feeling a little dejected from going from a hot shot, new PM to a new thing.

布雷特·泰勒：他们给了我另一个机会来制作它的 V2，我的印象是这不像我的上一个镜头，但我确实对从热门人物、新 PM 到新事物的转变感到有点沮丧。

So, we spent a lot of time thinking about how can you make something that's just much more compelling and not just a digital version of the Yellow Pages and not just so similar to some of the other products out there.

因此，我们花了很多时间思考如何才能制作出更具吸引力的东西，而不仅仅是黄页的数字版本，也不仅仅是与其他一些产品非常相似。

And that ended up being the thread that we pulled that resulted in Google Maps.

这最终成为我们拉动的线索，最终产生了谷歌地图。

We had licensed from MapQuest, the ability to put this little map next to the search results, it was always the ugliest part of the product and we always made these backhanded comments about it internally and we spent a lot of time saying, what if we inverted the hierarchy here and made the map the canvas?

我们获得了 MapQuest 的许可，能够将这个小地图放在搜索结果旁边，它始终是产品中最丑陋的部分，我们总是在内部对此做出这些讽刺性的评论，我们花了很多时间说，如果我们颠倒这里的层次结构并将地图作为画布怎么办？

Bret Taylor: We ended up finding Lars and Jens Rasmussen who had been working on this Windows mapping product and we got them into the company and started exploring this space and it ended up where, through that exploration we ended up integrating a lot of different products.

Bret Taylor：我们最终找到了一直在开​​发 Windows 地图产品的 Lars 和 Jens Rasmussen，我们让他们进入公司并开始探索这个领域，通过这种探索，我们最终集成了许多不同的产品。

We ended up integrating mapping local search, driving directions, like all of these products at the time were actually separate product categories and ended up with something that redefined the industry and certainly my career.

我们最终整合了本地搜索地图、行车路线，就像当时所有这些产品实际上都是独立的产品类别一样，最终重新定义了这个行业，当然还有我的职业生涯。

But it took, I think for me as a product leader, it changed the way I think about product just because there's feature and functionality and then there's like why should I use this thing in the first place?

但我认为对于我作为产品领导者来说，它改变了我对产品的看法，因为它有特性和功能，然后我为什么要首先使用这个东西？

And it was notable, there was a couple of interesting moments.

值得注意的是，有几个有趣的时刻。

Bret Taylor: When we launched Google Maps we got about 10 million people using it on the first day, which at that scale of the internet at the time was huge.

Bret Taylor：当我们推出 Google 地图时，第一天就有大约 1000 万人使用它，这对于当时的互联网规模来说是巨大的。

And then in August of 2005, we integrated satellite imagery from a recent acquisition called Keyhole, which became Google Earth and we got 90 million people using it on the same day.

然后在 2005 年 8 月，我们集成了最近收购的名为 Keyhole 的卫星图像，后来成为 Google 地球，同一天就有 9000 万人使用它。

Everyone wanted to look at the top of their house when the imagery came out.

当图像出来时，每个人都想看看他们房子的顶部。

And it was really interesting because there's so many subtle product lessons in there.

这真的很有趣，因为里面有很多微妙的产品课程。

First is, I think as you have these new technologies, rather than literally digitizing what came before, if you can create an entirely new experience, it answers the question for a new customer, why should I give this the time of day?

首先，我认为，既然你拥有这些新技术，而不是从字面上数字化以前的技术，如果你可以创造一种全新的体验，它可以回答新客户的问题，我为什么要给这个时间呢？

And so, really disassembling the Lego set and reassembling into something new rather than just digitizing what was there before.

因此，真正拆卸乐高套装并重新组装成新的东西，而不仅仅是将以前的东西数字化。

Certainly, that was the lesson I think in Google Maps, really was native to the platform in a way that a paper map couldn't be and that was a really meaningful breakthrough.

当然，我认为这就是谷歌地图的教训，它确实是该平台的原生内容，而纸质地图则无法做到这一点，这是一个非常有意义的突破。

Bret Taylor: And then with satellite imagery, it honestly wasn't the most important part of Google Maps, but it was the sizzle to the steak and it created, I don't think the term viral was a thing people said back then, but it created a viral moment.

布雷特·泰勒：然后，通过卫星图像，老实说，它不是谷歌地图最重要的部分，但它是牛排的嘶嘶声，它创造了，我不认为人们当时会说“病毒式传播”这个词，但它创造了一个病毒式传播的时刻。

We were on Saturday Night Live, which is the coolest thing.

我们参加了《周六夜现场》，这是最酷的事情。

Andy Samberg in, I think it was called Lazy Sunday rapped about Google Maps and Lars and I were texting each other.

安迪·萨姆伯格（Andy Samberg）在其中，我认为这就是所谓的“慵懒周日”（Lazy Sunday），关于谷歌地图的说唱，而拉尔斯（Lars）和我正在互相发短信。

We did it.

我们做到了。

We're on Saturday Live.

我们在周六现场直播。

Mission accomplished.

任务完成了。

And it was also showing that as you're there thinking about products, there's the why you decide to use a product and then what is the enduring value.

它还表明，当您考虑产品时，首先要考虑的是您决定使用该产品的原因，然后是它的持久价值。

And those are deeply related but not all the same thing.

这些是密​​切相关的，但并非都是同一件事。

And I just learned so many lessons that I took with me for every subsequent product that I worked on.

我刚刚学到了很多经验教训，我在后续开发的每一个产品中都学到了这些经验教训。

Lenny Rachitsky: That is an awesome story.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：这是一个很棒的故事。

One I think it's really empowering for people to hear, even you Bret, who I'm going to share all the successes you've had, have had a massive failure with the CEO of Google just like Bret, you screwed up.

我认为这确实能让人们听到，即使是你，布雷特，我将分享你所取得的所有成功，也和谷歌首席执行官一样经历了巨大的失败，就像布雷特一样，你搞砸了。

And it was such a big bet.

这是一个很大的赌注。

So one, just it's possible to succeed as you have succeeded in spite of a massive failure like this.

所以，尽管经历了这样的巨大失败，你还是有可能成功的。

And then some of the product lessons you shared, just to highlight a few of these things because I think this is great, is just you will often not win if you just make something that's a better copy of something else, what you want to look for is something that is an entirely new experience, something that's differentiated, something that's a lot more compelling.

然后你分享的一些产品经验教训，只是为了强调其中的一些事情，因为我认为这很棒，只是如果你只是制作一些更好的其他东西的副本，你通常不会获胜，你想要寻找的是一种全新的体验，一些与众不同的东西，一些更引人注目的东西。

Let's flip to talk about what you've learned from actually being very successful at a lot of things.

让我们谈谈您从在很多事情上取得成功中学到的东西。

Lenny Rachitsky: So I was looking at your resume and you basically have been very successful at every level of the career ladder and in such a huge variety of roles.

Lenny Rachitsky：所以我看了你的简历，基本上你在职业阶梯的各个层面以及各种各样的角色上都非常成功。

So let me just read a few of these things for folks that aren't super familiar with your background.

因此，让我为那些不太熟悉您的背景的人阅读其中的一些内容。

You were CTO of Meta, you were co-CEO of Salesforce, you're also CPO and COO at Salesforce.

您曾担任 Meta 的 CTO、Salesforce 的联席首席执行官、Salesforce 的 CPO 和 COO。

At Google, you joined as an associate product manager where you famously, you didn't mention this but you rebuilt Google Maps on weekend.

在谷歌，你以副产品经理的身份加入，你没有提到这一点，但你在周末重建了谷歌地图。

We're not going to talk about that.

我们不会谈论这个。

You're chairman of the board at OpenAI.

您是 OpenAI 的董事会主席。

You were chairman of the board at Twitter.

您曾担任 Twitter 董事会主席。

You've also founded three different companies, one social network, one productivity docs company called Quip, and now, Sierra.

您还创立了三家不同的公司，一家社交网络，一家名为 Quip 的生产力文档公司，以及现在的 Sierra。

Fun fact, at FriendFeed you invented the like button and I don't know if people know that and also just the newsfeed, I'll just throw that out there to give you some credit.

有趣的是，在 FriendFeed，你发明了“点赞”按钮，我不知道人们是否知道这一点，还有新闻源，我只是把它扔在那里，以给你一些荣誉。

Lenny Rachitsky: So you're basically an associate product manager, an IC product manager, an engineer, CPO, COO, CTO, CEO of three different companies including a public company.

Lenny Rachitsky：所以你基本上是三个不同公司（包括一家上市公司）的副产品经理、IC 产品经理、工程师、首席产品官、首席运营官、首席技术官和首席执行官。

Very rare that somebody is successful at all these types of roles and all these levels.

很少有人能在所有这些类型的角色和所有这些级别上取得成功。

So, let me just ask you this question.

那么，让我问你这个问题。

What mindsets or habits or just ways of working have you worked on building in yourself that you think have most contributed to you being successful in such a variety of roles and levels?

您认为哪些心态、习惯或工作方式对您在各种角色和级别上取得成功最有帮助？

Bret Taylor: Yeah.

布雷特·泰勒：是的。

It's actually something I am proud of.

这实际上是我感到自豪的事情。

I like the fact I've worn different hats.

我喜欢我戴过不同的帽子。

It's actually amusing when I meet colleagues that I've known from one of those jobs, they'll often think of me through the lens of that job.

当我遇到我在其中一项工作中认识的同事时，这实际上很有趣，他们经常会通过该工作的视角来看待我。

And so, I'll go to meet folks from Facebook and they think of me largely as an engineer.

因此，我会去见 Facebook 的人，他们主要认为我是一名工程师。

I'll meet folks from Google, they think me largely as a product person.

我会见谷歌的人，他们认为我很大程度上是一个产品人员。

At Salesforce, a lot of the folks there interacted with me as like a, lack of a better word, a suit, the boss.

在 Salesforce，很多人与我互动时就像一个没有更好的词，西装，老板。

And I'm not sure they think of me as an engineer at all, even though I was still probably coding on the weekends for fun.

我不确定他们是否认为我是一名工程师，尽管我可能仍然在周末编码以取乐。

And one of the things that is a principle for me is to have a really flexible view of my own identity.

对我来说，原则之一就是对自己的身份有一个非常灵活的看法。

I probably would self-describe as an engineer, but more broadly I think of myself as a builder and I like to build products and I think companies are one of the most effective ways to build products.

我可能会把自己描述为一名工程师，但更广泛地说，我认为自己是一名建造者，我喜欢建造产品，我认为公司是建造产品最有效的方式之一。

Bret Taylor: There's also things like open source, but I think I'm a huge believer in the confluence of technology and capitalism to produce just incredible outcomes for customers.

Bret Taylor：还有开源之类的东西，但我认为我非常相信技术和资本主义的融合可以为客户带来令人难以置信的结果。

And as a consequence, I think to really build something of significance, I think to be a great founder, you really need to be able to not have such a ossified view of your identity that you can't transform into what the company needs you to be at that point.

因此，我认为要真正建立一些有意义的东西，我认为要成为一名伟大的创始人，你真的需要能够不对自己的身份有如此僵化的看法，以至于你无法转变为公司当时需要你成为的人。

And every founder you'll talk to, one day, I think selling is a big part of being a founder.

有一天，我认为销售是成为一名创始人的重要组成部分。

You have to sell investors on wanting to invest in your company.

你必须说服投资者愿意投资你的公司。

You have to sell candidates on wanting to work at your company.

你必须让候选人相信他们想在你的公司工作。

You have to sell customers to want to use the product that your customer produces.

您必须向客户推销他们想要使用客户生产的产品。

You have to have good design taste, not just for your product but for your marketing and essentially, soliciting your customers.

你必须有良好的设计品味，不仅是为了你的产品，也是为了你的营销，本质上是为了吸引你的客户。

Bret Taylor: You have to have good engineering.

布雷特·泰勒：你必须拥有良好的工程技术。

If you're building a technology company, the technology comes first.

如果你要建立一家科技公司，技术是第一位的。

It's why this industry is so transformative.

这就是为什么这个行业如此具有变革性。

I probably credit, and I've told this story before, but I'm very grateful for her, but I probably credit Sheryl Sandberg for really changing the way I approach new jobs.

我可能相信，我以前也讲过这个故事，但我非常感谢她，但我可能相信谢丽尔·桑德伯格真正改变了我处理新工作的方式。

The story, and I might be embellishment a little bit, but I think it's broadly accurate.

这个故事，我可能有一点修饰，但我认为它大体上是准确的。

So I had just become the chief technology officer of Facebook and when I first got the job, it was the flavor of CTO or that relatively small group reporting into me, but contributed almost as a very senior architect on a number of projects.

所以我刚刚成为 Facebook 的首席技术官，当我第一次得到这份工作时，它的风格是 CTO 或向我报告的相对较小的团队，但几乎作为一个非常高级的架构师在许多项目中做出了贡献。

And then at some point, Mark Zuckerberg reorganized the company and split it into a bunch of different groups.

然后在某个时候，马克·扎克伯格重组了公司并将其分成了许多不同的团队。

I ended up with a very large group, 100 under me and I was essentially running our platform and mobile groups, products, design engineering.

我最终组建了一个非常大的团队，我手下有 100 人，我基本上负责运营我们的平台、移动团队、产品和设计工程。

Bret Taylor: So I went from a handful of reports to, I don't know, over 1,000 or something.

Bret Taylor：我不知道，我从几份报告变成了 1000 多份报告。

It was a big group.

那是一个大团体。

And it was the largest management job.

这是最大的管理工作。

I had become a manager at Google, but a modest team.

我已经成为谷歌的经理，但团队规模不大。

And so, I was doing okay but not great.

所以，我做得还不错，但不是很好。

And I had this moment where Sheryl saw me, I think I was editing a presentation for a partner just because the presentation I got didn't meet my quality bar and I was editing it and griping about it.

谢丽尔看到我的那一刻，我想我正在为合作伙伴编辑演示文稿，只是因为我得到的演示文稿不符合我的质量标准，而我正在编辑它并抱怨它。

She pulled me into a room and gave me talking to a little bit about holding my team to as high of a standard as I have.

她把我拉进一个房间，让我谈论如何让我的团队达到我所拥有的高标准。

If someone wasn't meeting my expectations, what was my plan to manage them out of the company or...

如果有人没有达到我的期望，我有什么计划将他们从公司中管理出来或者......

Just giving me management one-on-one.

只是给我一对一的管理。

Bret Taylor: And she's a remarkable mentor in the sense she can give you feedback that's very direct and often, a bit uncomfortable, but you know she cares about you.

布雷特·泰勒：她是一位出色的导师，因为她可以给你非常直接的反馈，而且常常有点不舒服，但你知道她关心你。

And so it was the type of feedback you listen to.

这就是你听到的反馈类型。

I went home that night and I was stewing on it and not very happy.

那天晚上我回到家，心里焦急万分，不太高兴。

I was like, you get naturally a little defensive in those moments.

我当时想，在那些时刻你自然会有点防御性。

Is that really true?

这是真的吗？

Am I really fucking it up or is she overreacting?

是我真的搞砸了还是她反应过度了？

And then I woke up the next day, I was like, "No, she's right." And I had realized this subconscious limiter that was limiting my success in the job, which is, I was trying to conform the job to the things I thought I liked to do.

第二天我醒来，我想，“不，她是对的。”我意识到这个潜意识的限制因素限制了我在工作中的成功，也就是说，我试图使工作符合我认为我喜欢做的事情。

So, I was spending a lot of my time on some product and technology things that I was passionate about, thinking I'm the boss.

所以，我花了很多时间在一些我热衷的产品和技术上，认为我是老板。

I should focus on what I want to focus on instead of thinking about, okay, I'm running the mobile and platform teams at Facebook.

我应该专注于我想要专注的事情，而不是想着，好吧，我正在 Facebook 运营移动和平台团队。

What's the most important thing to do today to make our mobile and developer platform successful?

为了让我们的移动和开发者平台取得成功，今天要做的最重要的事情是什么？

Bret Taylor: And when I reframed the job that way, I did different things.

布雷特·泰勒：当我以这种方式重新构建工作时，我做了不同的事情。

And the thing that was the biggest pleasant surprise to me was I liked it.

对我来说最大的惊喜是我喜欢它。

I thought I liked engineering and product, but in fact, when I changed an organization and it turned out to be more successful, I derived a great deal of joy from seeing that success.

我以为我喜欢工程和产品，但事实上，当我改变了一个组织并且结果变得更加成功时，我从看到这种成功中获得了巨大的快乐。

Our developer platform had a lot of partners and when there was an issue there and I'd spend time on partnerships and it worked and our platform became healthier, the partner became more successful.

我们的开发者平台有很多合作伙伴，当那里出现问题时，我会花时间建立合作伙伴关系，它起作用了，我们的平台变得更健康，合作伙伴也变得更加成功。

I took pride in that success and then I just started being better at my job and I realized that the actual act of engineering or product design or all the things I thought I liked, what I really liked is impact.

我为这次成功感到自豪，然后我开始在工作中做得更好，我意识到工程或产品设计或所有我认为我喜欢的事情的实际行为，我真正喜欢的是影响力。

Bret Taylor: And so, that conversation led to my waking up every morning, sometimes literally, but certainly, in the broadest sets of the words saying, "What is the most impactful thing I can do today?" And really thinking almost like, if you had an external board of advisors telling you what are the things where if you focus on them, you can maximize the likelihood that what you're trying to achieve will happen?

布雷特·泰勒：所以，那次谈话让我每天早上醒来，有时是字面上的，但肯定是，用最广泛的词语来说，“我今天能做的最有影响力的事情是什么？”真正的思考几乎就像，如果你有一个外部顾问委员会告诉你哪些事情，如果你专注于它们，你可以最大限度地提高你想要实现的目标发生的可能性？

Sometimes, it's recruiting, sometimes, it's product, sometimes, it's engineering, sometimes, it's sales.

有时，是招聘，有时，是产品，有时，是工程，有时，是销售。

And I've become much more self-reflective just about what is important to work on.

我对什么是重要的工作变得更加自我反思。

And I have become much more receptive to doing things that I previously would've said aren't my favorite things to do because I derive so much joy from having an impact that I enjoy a lot more things now.

我变得更加愿意做那些我以前认为不是我最喜欢做的事情，因为我从影响力中获得了很多快乐，所以我现在喜欢更多的事情。

And so, I really credit Sheryl, I'm so grateful.

所以，我真的很信任谢丽尔，我非常感激。

And actually, it's interesting, I think a lot about this when I give feedback to people now, just those moments that can change the trajectory of your career.

实际上，这很有趣，当我现在向人们提供反馈时，我对此思考了很多，只是那些可以改变你职业轨迹的时刻。

I give her all the credit for it.

我把这一切归功于她。

Lenny Rachitsky: There's so many people that share stories of Sheryl Sandberg giving them advice and that changing their life.

Lenny Rachitsky：有很多人分享谢丽尔·桑德伯格给他们提供建议并改变他们生活的故事。

What a mensch.

真是个男子汉啊。

Lenny Rachitsky: My biggest takeaway from this, which is this question of what is the most impactful thing I could do today?

Lenny Rachitsky：我从中得到的最大收获是，我今天能做的最有影响力的事情是什么？

Such a powerful heuristic just to keep in mind.

如此强大的启发式只需记住即可。

To your point, you may realize you don't want to be doing sales or hiring, but if that's the most impactful thing and you end up doing it, you may realize I like this and I'm good at this and have thought about-

就你的观点而言，你可能意识到你不想做销售或招聘，但如果这是最有影响力的事情并且你最终做了它，你可能会意识到我喜欢这个并且我擅长这个并且考虑过-

Bret Taylor: Can I double click on that though for a second?

布雷特·泰勒：我可以双击一下它吗？

Bret Taylor: I think it's really hard.

布雷特·泰勒：我认为这真的很难。

One of the dangers for founders and product managers, but I think particularly for founders is incorrect storytelling.

对于创始人和产品经理来说，尤其是对于创始人来说，危险之一是讲不正确的故事。

People don't like my product because of X.

人们不喜欢我的产品是因为 X。

And if you tell that to yourself and you tell it to your team, all of a sudden, it goes from being an intuition to being a fact.

如果你告诉自己并告诉你的团队，突然之间，它就从直觉变成了事实。

Well, you better hope you're right because if you orient your strategy around fixing a problem and you're wrong, your company's going to fail.

好吧，你最好希望自己是对的，因为如果你的策略围绕解决问题而定，而你错了，那么你的公司就会失败。

So why did you lose a deal?

那么为什么你会失去一笔交易呢？

You could talk to the salesperson who is on the account or perhaps maybe a product manager was involved in the conversation.

您可以与该帐户的销售人员交谈，或者可能有产品经理参与了对话。

It's very important to have intellectual honesty in those moments because you could say something like, "Oh, they didn't buy it because the platform cost too much." And that's something a salesperson might say.

在那些时刻保持理智上的诚实非常重要，因为你可以这样说：“哦，他们不买它，因为这个平台成本太高了。”这是销售人员可能会说的话。

Bret Taylor: Maybe the real reason is they didn't actually see much value in your platform.

布雷特·泰勒：也许真正的原因是他们实际上并没有看到你的平台有多大价值。

So it was communicated to the salesperson as it was too expensive.

于是就跟销售人员沟通了，因为价格太贵了。

But in fact, the problem was product differentiation.

但事实上，问题出在产品差异化上。

And you could end up going into a discussion on pricing when in fact, there was a much deeper, much harder problem to solve there.

你最终可能会就定价进行讨论，而事实上，还有一个更深层、更困难的问题需要解决。

But just like when you break up with someone, you don't say, it's because I don't like you anymore.

但就像你和某人分手时，你不会说，那是因为我不再喜欢你了。

You say it's not you, it's me.

你说不是你，是我。

You say all these pleasantries because we're all social animals and you want to be pleasant with the people around you.

你说这些寒暄是因为我们都是群居动物，你希望与周围的人相处愉快。

So literally taking what a customer says or what a user says in a focus group or a usability study is rarely correct.

因此，从字面上理解客户所说的话或用户在焦点小组或可用性研究中所说的话很少是正确的。

It often is related to what the truth is, but it's very important to get right.

它通常与事实真相相关，但正确判断非常重要。

And so, I think one of the things I've observed with first time founders in particular is you're often a single issue voter based on your skillset.

因此，我认为我在首次创始人身上观察到的一件事是，根据你的技能，你通常是单一问题的投票者。

Bret Taylor: So if you're a great engineer, the answer to almost every problem in your business is engineering.

Bret Taylor：因此，如果您是一名出色的工程师，那么您业务中几乎所有问题的答案都是工程。

If you're a product designer, the answer almost to the proverbial redesign, I joke, it's like the dead cap balance of a consumer product like this next redesign will fix all of our problems.

如果你是一名产品设计师，答案几乎就是众所周知的重新设计，我开玩笑说，就像消费产品的死上限平衡一样，下一次重新设计将解决我们所有的问题。

I don't know if it's ever, ever worked.

我不知道它是否曾经有效过。

And then I met a lot of entrepreneurs who come from a business development background, they're always thinking about partnerships and oh, if we just get this partnership done for this distribution channel, everything's going to change.

然后我遇到了很多来自商业开发背景的企业家，他们总是在考虑合作伙伴关系，哦，如果我们为这个分销渠道完成这种合作伙伴关系，一切都会改变。

And I think it's really important when you're a founder to be self-aware that you will naturally, subconsciously pick the thing that is your strength, your superpower as a solution to more problems.

我认为，当你是一名创始人时，有自我意识非常重要，你会自然地、下意识地选择你的优势、你的超能力来解决更多问题。

And in fact, if you think that's a solution to your problem, it may be right, but you probably by default should question it.

事实上，如果您认为这可以解决您的问题，那么它可能是对的，但您可能默认应该质疑它。

Bret Taylor: If you think the thing that you've been doing your whole career is the way to fix your problem, it's at least 30% likely that you've chosen that because of comfort and familiarity not truth.

布雷特·泰勒：如果你认为你整个职业生涯一直在做的事情就是解决你的问题的方法，那么你至少有 30% 的可能选择这样做是因为舒适和熟悉，而不是事实。

And so, I think one of the skills I think is, it really goes around to do you have a good co-founder?

所以，我认为我认为的技能之一是，它真的与你有一个好的联合创始人有关吗？

Do you have a good leadership team?

你有一个好的领导团队吗？

If you're a product manager, you're a partner in engineering, you're a partner in marketing, you really want to have very real conversations to ensure that you're actually working on the actual correct thing.

如果您是产品经理、工程合作伙伴、营销合作伙伴，您确实希望进行非常真实的对话，以确保您实际上正在做真正正确的事情。

And I think it's easy to say what's the most impactful thing to do today?

我认为很容易说出今天要做的最有影响力的事情是什么？

My guess, if a lot of people try that, they'll lie to themselves more often than not.

我猜，如果很多人都尝试这样做，他们往往会欺骗自己。

And it's a very challenging question to answer.

这是一个非常有挑战性的问题。

The question's interesting.

这个问题很有趣。

Being able to answer it accurately is actually the hard part.

能够准确地回答这个问题实际上是困难的部分。

Lenny Rachitsky: This feels like such an important lesson you've learned.

Lenny Rachitsky：这感觉就像你学到的一个重要的教训。

Is there an example that comes to mind where you learned this the hard way where you actually ended up-

你是否想到了一个例子，你通过艰难的方式学到了这一点，而你实际上最终——

Bret Taylor: Oh, yeah.

布雷特·泰勒：哦，是的。

You just want to spend this whole thing on my failures, but I'm fine with that.

你只是想把这一切都花在我的失败上，但我对此很满意。

Bret Taylor: Frontier was my first company.

Bret Taylor：Frontier 是我的第一家公司。

At our peak we had 12 employees, 12 of the best people I've ever worked with.

在我们的巅峰时期，我们有 12 名员工，其中 12 人是我共事过的最优秀的人。

Started the company with Jim Norris, who's an engineer I've known since Stanford and Paul Buhite and Sanjeev Singh who Paul started Gmail.

我和 Jim Norris 一起创办了这家公司，他是我从斯坦福大学就认识的一位工程师，还有 Paul Buhite 和 Sanjeev Singh，Paul 创办了 Gmail。

Sanjeev was the first engineer at Gmail, so we had the Google Maps people and Gmail people.

Sanjeev 是 Gmail 的第一位工程师，因此我们有 Google 地图人员和 Gmail 人员。

It was a pretty awesome founding team.

这是一个非常棒的创始团队。

We made a social network, as you said.

正如你所说，我们建立了一个社交网络。

We invented a lot of concepts that became popular in the newsfeed.

我们发明了许多在新闻源中流行的概念。

We invented the like button.

我们发明了点赞按钮。

It was really neat.

真的很整洁。

It was a fun time.

那是一段有趣的时光。

We were only really popular in Turkey, Italy and Iran, and at one point, we were blocked in Iran, so we were only popular in Turkey and Italy and Silicon Valley.

我们只在土耳其、意大利和伊朗真正受欢迎，有一次，我们在伊朗被封锁，所以我们只在土耳其、意大利和硅谷受欢迎。

To this day, actually a lot of folks in Silicon Valley are like, "I love FriendFeed." I'm like, that's awesome.

直到今天，实际上硅谷的很多人都说，“我喜欢 FriendFeed”。我想，这太棒了。

Bret Taylor: It wasn't really a successful business.

布雷特·泰勒：这并不是一个真正成功的企业。

We were a follower-oriented social network, not a friendship-oriented social network, which meant a lot of our content was more like X or Twitter than it is Facebook in that respect.

我们是一个以关注者为导向的社交网络，而不是一个以友谊为导向的社交网络，这意味着我们的很多内容在这方面更像是 X 或 Twitter，而不是 Facebook。

And a lot of sharing newspaper articles, interests, scientific communities, things like that.

还有很多分享报纸文章、兴趣、科学社区等等。

And there was a period when Twitter, which was one of our competitors at the time, that there was a lot more social networks at the time.

有一段时间，Twitter（当时是我们的竞争对手之一）当时有更多的社交网络。

I am probably screwing this up a little bit.

我可能把这件事搞砸了一点。

I think Obama, Ashton Kutcher and Oprah Winfrey all went on Twitter in a summer and we just got our ass kicked.

我想奥巴马、阿什顿·库彻和奥普拉·温弗瑞都曾在一个夏天上过推特，但我们却被狠狠地踢了一顿。

Bret Taylor: And it was a great example of you...

布雷特·泰勒：这是你的一个很好的例子......

I think 11 of those 12 people were engineers and we were just making product and I think it was Biz Stone.

我认为这 12 个人中有 11 人是工程师，我们只是在制造产品，我认为是 Biz Stone。

If you talk to the Twitter folks, they could give you the history on this, but I think Biz was really focused on getting celebrities and public figures onto Twitter, which is totally obvious.

如果你和 Twitter 的工作人员交谈，他们可以告诉你这方面的历史，但我认为 Biz 真正专注于让名人和公众人物进入 Twitter，这是完全显而易见的。

If you have a social service that's oriented towards following people, put some people on there worth following and instead, we were exclusively focused on polishing the product.

如果你有一个面向关注者的社交服务，那就放一些值得关注的人在那里，相反，我们只专注于完善产品。

Bret Taylor: And we actually, I think at our peak of popularity, we were very confident just, I think it was a time when Twitter had the fail whale and it was down half the time and people couldn't even use it.

布雷特·泰勒：实际上，我认为在我们受欢迎程度最高的时候，我们非常有信心，我认为那是 Twitter 出现失败鲸的时候，它有一半时间下降，人们甚至无法使用它。

And our product, we were innovating faster, we had more features, people liked it and we were up 100% of the time and we totally lost for no reason related to product at all.

我们的产品，我们创新得更快，我们有更多的功能，人们喜欢它，我们100%的时间都在增长，但我们完全没有任何与产品相关的原因而失败。

And it was an example of, I think somewhat famously not a lot of great entrepreneurs have come out of Google because Google was so successful, I think it's hard as a product manager to see distribution and product design and even business model when you have AdWords and money's raining from the sky.

这是一个例子，我认为谷歌出身的伟大企业家并不多，因为谷歌是如此成功，我认为当你拥有AdWords并且资金从天而降时，作为产品经理很难看到分销和产品设计甚至商业模式。

There wasn't as much scrutiny and I think folks like the PayPal Mafia I think learned a lot more about entrepreneurialism than a typical PM at Google.

没有那么多的审查，我认为像 PayPal Mafia 这样的人比谷歌的典型 PM 学到了更多关于创业精神的知识。

So, we're just getting punched in the face and learning this the hard way.

所以，我们只是被打了一拳，并经历了惨痛的教训。

Bret Taylor: And so, that was probably the most prominent example of it and I think we probably did have a...

布雷特·泰勒：所以，这可能是最突出的例子，我认为我们可能确实有......

I can tell you all the flaws of that product, but I don't think that was the reason why we lost.

我可以告诉你该产品的所有缺陷，但我不认为这是我们失败的原因。

There's a lot of reasons.

原因有很多。

I think there was a lot of flaws of the product, but it was a lot of other stuff.

我认为这个产品有很多缺陷，但还有很多其他的东西。

And so, I've learned, accumulated these skills over time, but I say the hard part of that question is answering it correctly, is it's hard when you don't have experience in something, than to have intuition in it.

因此，随着时间的推移，我学到了，积累了这些技能，但我说这个问题的困难部分是正确回答它，当你在某件事上没有经验时，比在这件事上有直觉更困难。

So I think if there's probably a structural flaw, it wasn't that...

所以我认为如果可能存在结构性缺陷，那不是......

I don't know if I could have figured out how to reach out to Ashton Kutcher , it's not he's on my Rolodex.

我不知道我是否能找到联系阿什顿·库彻的方法，因为他不在我的名片夹上。

But I probably wasn't soliciting advice from the right people.

但我可能没有向合适的人征求建议。

Bret Taylor: I think that what's great about the technology industry is there's a lot of advice.

Bret Taylor：我认为科技行业的伟大之处在于有很多建议。

Choosing whom you listen to is actually quite difficult, but I think we're somewhat myopic.

选择听谁的实际上是相当困难的，但我认为我们有点短视。

We're in our own little world, creating this product and we weren't asking people from the outside in to say, what are you seeing that could go wrong?

我们在自己的小世界里创造了这个产品，我们并没有要求外部人员说，你认为可能会出现什么问题？

What are you seeing that could go right?

你认为哪些事情可以顺利进行？

What are you seeing in the industry that we're not doing that you think we might want to do?

您在这个行业中看到哪些我们没有做但您认为我们可能想做的事情？

And this is why boards are important.

这就是董事会如此重要的原因。

This is why finding the right advisors, the advisors will actually tell you what you not want to hear, but you need to hear.

这就是为什么找到合适的顾问，顾问实际上会告诉您您不想听到但您需要听到的内容。

I think that was probably the missing part.

我认为这可能是缺失的部分。

I'm not sure I was great at market at the time, but if I had solicited the right advice, I could have learned that that was a shortcoming.

我不确定当时我是否擅长市场，但如果我征求了正确的建议，我可能会发现这是一个缺点。

And I think that was a deep lesson I took from that.

我认为这是我从中吸取的深刻教训。

I'm a huge believer in boards and getting good advice.

我非常相信董事会并能获得好的建议。

Lenny Rachitsky: Any heuristics or advice for people to know whose advice to listen to?

Lenny Rachitsky：有什么启发或建议可以让人们知道该听谁的建议吗？

What do you pay attention to when you're like, okay, ignore this person but listen to this person?

当你想，好吧，忽略这个人但听这个人说话时，你会注意什么？

Bret Taylor: Yeah, that one's tough.

布雷特·泰勒：是的，那很难。

It does come down to good judgment and being judge of people's character.

这确实取决于良好的判断力和对人们性格的判断。

One thing that is particularly hard is there's not a strong correlation between the confidence with which someone expresses an opinion and the quality of that opinion.

特别困难的一件事是，某人表达观点的信心与该观点的质量之间没有很强的相关性。

I don't want to say it's inversely correlated, but that's funny, with all the podcasts out now, if there's topics I know a lot about, sometimes the most eloquent, confident statements about things I know a lot about, are the least accurate and it sounds extremely persuasive.

我不想说它是负相关的，但这很有趣，现在所有的播客都出来了，如果有我了解很多的话题，有时对我了解很多的事情最雄辩、最自信的陈述是最不准确的，而且听起来很有说服力。

And so, it does require very good judgment.

因此，它确实需要非常好的判断力。

One thing is I think, not just asking for advice but asking people, who should I talk to get good advice?

我认为一件事是，不仅仅是寻求建议，而是询问人们，我应该与谁交谈以获得好的建议？

And you'll find some common answers there and that's often a really strong signal of good judgment.

您会在那里找到一些常见的答案，这通常是良好判断力的强烈信号。

Bret Taylor: And then one thing I found is when you ask for advice, don't just ask what to do but why.

布雷特·泰勒：我发现的一件事是，当你寻求建议时，不要只问要做什么，还要问为什么。

Be an obnoxious two-year-old kid, why?

做一个令人讨厌的两岁孩子，为什么？

Why?

为什么？

Why?

为什么？

Why?

为什么？

And really try to understand the framework that someone is using to give you advice.

并真正尝试理解别人用来给你建议的框架。

The interesting thing about advice is people are often extrapolating from relatively few experiences.

关于建议的有趣之处在于，人们经常从相对较少的经验中进行推断。

So they will say, never do this or always do that.

所以他们会说，永远不要这样做或总是那样做。

And it's because they had one experience where something backfired or something could have gone better if they had done it.

这是因为他们有过一次经历，有些事情会适得其反，或者如果他们这样做的话，事情可能会变得更好。

So it's a useful anecdote, but if you don't ask why and understand they had one experience and here's what happened, it can come across as a rule when in fact, it's data and if you ask advice of three people and they all have very similar interactions, you can create a first principles framework from which that advice emerges.

所以这是一个有用的轶事，但如果你不问为什么并了解他们有过一次经历，这就是发生的事情，它可能会被认为是一条规则，而事实上，它是数据，如果你向三个人询问建议，他们都有非常相似的互动，你可以创建一个第一原则框架，从该建议中出现。

And when you start applying it, you're applying it with a degree of nuance that you couldn't if you're just following a rule.

当您开始应用它时，您会以一定程度的细微差别来应用它，而如果您只是遵循规则，则无法做到这一点。

So, I think one is, it does come down to good judgment, I think.

所以，我认为，这确实取决于良好的判断力。

I don't know how to teach that.

我不知道如何教这个。

Bret Taylor: I'm a huge believer in good judgment.

布雷特·泰勒：我非常相信良好的判断力。

It's one of the things I hire for.

这是我雇用的目的之一。

I just think that's something that probably comes from a mix of self perfection.

我只是认为这可能来自于自我完善。

You really need to hold yourselves accountable as an entrepreneur, as a product manager.

作为一名企业家、一名产品经理，你确实需要对自己负责。

If you made a bad decision, spend time reflecting on it, number one.

如果你做出了错误的决定，第一要花时间反思。

And really, try to understand why and try to always improve your judgment.

实际上，尝试理解原因并尝试不断提高你的判断力。

I think at the end of the day, that is why you are a good entrepreneur, a good product manager.

我认为归根结底，这就是为什么你是一名优秀的企业家、一名优秀的产品经理。

And number two, when you get advice, really understand where it's coming from and why so that you can create your own independent view of where that advice came from and recognize that no one's advice is statistically significant or very rarely is it.

第二，当你得到建议时，要真正理解它的来源和原因，这样你就可以对建议的来源形成自己的独立看法，并认识到没有人的建议具有统计意义或很少有统计意义。

If you're getting advice on investing from Warren Buffett, yeah, okay, it's statistically significant, but most advice is like something happened to you once and you have regrets.

如果你从沃伦·巴菲特那里得到投资建议，是的，好吧，它具有统计意义，但大多数建议就像某件事发生在你身上一次，然后你就会后悔。

Lenny Rachitsky: I love that you're like, I don't know if I have a great answer then you just give us an incredible answer to this question.

Lenny Rachitsky：我喜欢你的样子，我不知道我是否有一个很好的答案，然后你就给了我们一个令人难以置信的答案。

I want to go in a different direction.

我想朝不同的方向前进。

You mentioned that you describe yourself as an engineer.

您提到您将自己描述为一名工程师。

I know I heard you code to relax still.

我知道我听到你写代码是为了放松。

Let me just ask you this question, something a lot of people in college are thinking about.

让我问你这个问题，这是很多大学人都在思考的问题。

Do you think it still makes sense to learn to code?

您认为学习编码仍然有意义吗？

Do you think this will significantly change in the next few years?

您认为未来几年这种情况会发生重大变化吗？

Bret Taylor: I do still think studying computer science is a different answer than learning to code, but I would say I still think it's extremely valuable to study computer science.

Bret Taylor：我仍然认为学习计算机科学与学习编码是不同的答案，但我想说我仍然认为学习计算机科学非常有价值。

I say that because I think computer science is more than coding.

我这么说是因为我认为计算机科学不仅仅是编码。

If you understand things like Big O notation or complexity theory or study algorithms and why a randomized algorithm works and why two algorithms with the same Big O complexity, one can then practice perform better than others and why a cache miss matters and just all these little...

如果您了解 Big O 表示法或复杂性理论或研究算法以及为什么随机算法有效以及为什么两种具有相同 Big O 复杂性的算法，那么您就可以比其他算法表现得更好，以及为什么缓存未命中很重要以及所有这些小...

There's a lot more to coding than writing the code.

编码不仅仅是编写代码。

The reason I think that is I do think the act of creating software is going to transform from typing into a terminal or typing into Visual Studio code to operating a code-generating machine.

我认为这是因为我确实认为创建软件的行为将从在终端中输入或在 Visual Studio 代码中输入转变为操作代码生成机器。

I think that is the future of creating software.

我认为这就是创建软件的未来。

But I think operating a code-generating machine requires systems thinking and I think that computer science, there are other disciplines as well, but computer science is a wonderful major to learn systems thinking and at the end of the day, AI will facilitate creating this software.

但我认为操作代码生成机器需要系统思维，我认为计算机科学还有其他学科，但计算机科学是学习系统思维的绝佳专业，最终，人工智能将有助于创建这个软件。

Bret Taylor: We may do a lot more in the next few years we can't even imagine, but your job as the operator of that code-generating machine is to make a product or to solve a problem and you really need to have great systems thinking and you're going to be managing this machine that's doing a lot of the tedious work of making the button or connecting to the network.

布雷特·泰勒：在接下来的几年里，我们可能会做更多我们无法想象的事情，但是作为代码生成机器的操作员，你的工作是制造产品或解决问题，你确实需要有出色的系统思维，并且你将管理这台机器，它正在做许多制作按钮或连接到网络的繁琐工作。

But as you're thinking of the intersection of a technology and a business problem, you're trying to affect a system that will solve that problem at scale for your customers and that systems thinking is always the hardest part of creating products.

但是，当您考虑技术和业务问题的交叉点时，您正在尝试影响一个能够为您的客户大规模解决该问题的系统，而系统思考始终是创建产品中最困难的部分。

Bret Taylor: I'll just give you, it's this cheesy simple example, but I think it's representative.

布雷特·泰勒：我只是告诉你，这是一个俗气的简单例子，但我认为它具有代表性。

At Facebook, we spent a lot of time designing the newsfeed and if you ever had a really, really good designer and they showed you at the time, a Photoshop mock-up of the newsfeed, it was just all as beautiful.

在 Facebook，我们花了很多时间设计新闻源，如果你有一个非常非常优秀的设计师，他们当时向你展示了新闻源的 Photoshop 模型，那么它也同样美丽。

The photos, the family was happy and the photo was a perfect photo and the posts were all perfectly grammatically correct and of a completely normal length and the comments and there was the like...

照片，家人很高兴，照片是一张完美的照片，所有帖子的语法都完全正确，长度完全正常，还有评论等等……

Everything was just perfect.

一切都很完美。

And then you'd implement that design and you'd look at your own newsfeed and it looked like shit because it turns out not everyone's photos were made by a professional photographer.

然后你会实现这个设计，你会看到你自己的新闻源，它看起来很糟糕，因为事实证明并不是每个人的照片都是由专业摄影师拍摄的。

The posts were all these different lengths.

这些帖子的长度各不相同。

The comments were like, you suck and...

评论就像是，你很糟糕......

All that stuff.

所有这些东西。

Bret Taylor: And then all of a sudden you realize that designing a newsfeed, Photoshop is the easy part.

Bret Taylor：然后你突然意识到设计新闻源，Photoshop 是最容易的部分。

You need to actually design a system that produces both in content and visual design, like a delightful experience given input you don't control.

您需要实际设计一个既能产生内容又能产生视觉设计的系统，就像在您无法控制的输入下获得令人愉快的体验。

And that's a system, it's sort of a design and it's just, what we did practically, I am sure it's changed a lot since I left in 2012, but we made a system so designers had to show their newsfeed designs with real newsfeed data that was messy rather than anything artificial because I think it forced the process to be more realistic.

这是一个系统，它是一种设计，它只是我们实际所做的，我确信自 2012 年我离开以来它已经发生了很大变化，但我们制作了一个系统，因此设计师必须使用真实的新闻源数据来展示他们的新闻源设计，这些数据是混乱的，而不是任何人为的，因为我认为这迫使流程变得更加现实。

Bret Taylor: But I say that because I think that whether AI is writing code or doing the design or doing all these other things, you need to learn how to have a system in your head.

布雷特·泰勒：但我这么说是因为我认为无论人工智能是编写代码还是进行设计或做所有其他事情，你都需要学习如何在头脑中拥有一个系统。

You need to understand the basics of what's hard and what's easy and what's possible and what's impossible.

您需要了解什么是困难的、什么是简单的、什么是可能的、什么是不可能的基础知识。

And AI can help you do that too, by the way.

顺便说一下，人工智能也可以帮助你做到这一点。

But I do think that's a really useful skill.

但我确实认为这是一项非常有用的技能。

I think in general, with the advent of AI agents and AI approaching super intelligence in certain domains, I think the tools with which we do our job will change a lot.

我认为总的来说，随着人工智能代理的出现和人工智能在某些领域接近超级智能，我认为我们工作所用的工具将会发生很大变化。

I think it's very important to have a very loose attachment to the way we do our jobs and that story that we won't talk about when I rewrote Google Maps, everyone talks about that story and I think it's because of Paul who told it on some podcasts and that's where it made the rounds.

我认为对我们的工作方式有一个非常松散的依恋是非常重要的，当我重写谷歌地图时我们不会谈论这个故事，每个人都在谈论这个故事，我认为这是因为保罗在一些播客上讲述了这个故事，这就是它传播的地方。

Bret Taylor: I think that's going to end up this vestige of the past, almost like the human calculators at NASA before the computers were invented, like wow, a person was a calculator?

布雷特·泰勒：我认为这将结束过去的痕迹，就像计算机发明之前美国宇航局的人类计算器一样，哇，一个人是一个计算器？

Whoa, that's fun.

哇，这很有趣。

Tell me that story.

告诉我那个故事。

I think just what I was good at will no longer be useful in the future or certainly not valuable in the future and that's okay.

我认为我擅长的东西在未来将不再有用，或者在未来肯定没有价值，但这没关系。

So I think we need to have a really loose view of it, but the idea that you shouldn't study these disciplines, it's like people say, I don't want to study math because I'm not going to use it in my career for X.

所以我认为我们需要对它有一个非常宽松的看法，但是你不应该研究这些学科的想法就像人们说的，我不想学习数学，因为我不会在我的职业生涯中使用它。

Well, studying maths is quite important.

嗯，学习数学非常重要。

It teaches you how to think.

它教你如何思考。

It teaches you how the world works, physics, math, and I think computer science especially, at least the foundations of it, will continue to be the foundations of how we build software and understanding that when you're interacting particularly with something that's smarter than you, producing code you might not completely understand how you constrain it and how you get it to produce these outcomes.

它教你世界如何运作、物理、数学，我认为尤其是计算机科学，至少是它的基础，将继续成为我们如何构建软件的基础，并理解当你与比你更聪明的东西交互时，生成代码，你可能无法完全理解如何限制它以及如何让它产生这些结果。

I think it will require a lot of sophistication actually.

我认为这实际上需要很多复杂性。

Lenny Rachitsky: That's such a great answer.

Lenny Rachitsky：这是一个很好的答案。

There's this always sense of this binary, should I learn to code or not?

这个二进制文件总是有这种感觉，我是否应该学习编码？

And your point here is learn to understand how engineering works and how systems work and what your code does and how it all interconnects, but the way you actually do the coding at your desk will change significantly.

你在这里的重点是学会理解工程是如何工作的，系统是如何工作的，你的代码是做什么的，以及它们是如何互连的，但你在办公桌上实际编码的方式将会发生很大的变化。

This reminds me of something you mentioned on a podcast recently.

这让我想起你最近在播客上提到的一些事情。

This idea that you think there's going to, or there should be a new programming language that is more designed for LLMs versus humans.

你认为将会有这个想法，或者应该有一种新的编程语言，它更适合法学硕士而不是人类。

Can you just talk about that because I think a lot of people aren't thinking about that?

你能谈谈这个吗，因为我认为很多人都没有考虑过这个问题？

Bret Taylor: I don't know if it's a language, I would call it a programming system because I think language might be too limited.

Bret Taylor：我不知道它是不是一种语言，我会称它为编程系统，因为我认为语言可能太有限了。

My reductive version of the past, what 40 years of computers maybe more, is we created the hardware for computers, then we created punch cards, which is the way in the late '70s you would tell a computer what to do or maybe mid to late '70s.

我对过去的简化版本，也许是计算机的 40 年，是我们为计算机创建了硬件，然后我们创建了打孔卡，这是 70 年代末或者可能是 70 年代中后期告诉计算机做什么的方式。

Then we invented early operating systems and time-sharing systems from the invention of things like Unix at Bell Labs and Berkeley, you ended up with the C programming language, Fortran and a lot of higher level programming languages.

然后，我们从贝尔实验室和伯克利的 Unix 等发明中发明了早期的操作系统和分时系统，最终出现了 C 编程语言、Fortran 和许多高级编程语言。

I think Fortran and then C.

我认为是 Fortran，然后是 C。

Bret Taylor: And we moved up the layers of abstraction.

Bret Taylor：我们提升了抽象层。

No one does punch cards anymore, obviously.

显然，没有人再打卡了。

Few people write assembly language.

很少有人写汇编语言。

Some people write C, some people write REST.

有些人写C，有些人写REST。

But a lot of people write Python and TypeScript and things like that.

但很多人都写 Python 和 TypeScript 之类的东西。

And as we've invented more and more abstractions, we've made it easier to do high-leverage things.

随着我们发明了越来越多的抽象，我们让做高杠杆率的事情变得更加容易。

So, if you look at how remarkable Google was back in the day or Google Maps, you could probably give a lot of react programmers the task of make a draggable map now and I think a lot of people could do it.

所以，如果你看看当时的谷歌或谷歌地图有多么出色，你可能可以给很多反应程序员现在制作一个可拖动地图的任务，我认为很多人都可以做到。

That was true RND back in the day.

这在当时是真正的 RND。

Bret Taylor: When Salesforce was created in 1998, just putting a database in the cloud was hard and that alone was a technical moat that is now trivial with Amazon Web Services and that technical moat is comically narrow, but the product moat is quite large.

Bret Taylor：当 Salesforce 于 1998 年创建时，仅仅将数据库放在云中就很困难，仅此一项就成为了一条技术护城河，而现在对于 Amazon Web Services 而言，这已经微不足道了，而且技术护城河窄得可笑，但产品护城河却相当大。

I think that if the act of writing code is going from something that is very costly to the marginal cost of that going to zero, how many of the abstractions that we've built are based on human program or productivity?

我认为，如果编写代码的行为从成本非常高的事情变成边际成本为零的事情，那么我们构建的抽象中有多少是基于人类程序或生产力的？

I think a ton.

我想很多。

I always laugh that I assume Python is probably the most common generated code just because of how much it's in the training data and data scientists love Python and I love Python too.

我总是笑说，我认为 Python 可能是最常见的生成代码，只是因为它在训练数据中占了很大的比例，而且数据科学家喜欢 Python，我也喜欢 Python。

It's such a comically bad thing for AI to generate just because it's one of the most inefficient programming languages of all time.

对于人工智能来说，仅仅因为它是有史以来效率最低的编程语言之一就产生这样的结果是一件非常滑稽的坏事。

If you know the global interpreter lock and just slow.

如果你知道全局解释器锁并且速度很慢。

And I've written a lot of high-scale web services and it's just quite slow and it's very hard to verify.

我已经编写了很多大规模的 Web 服务，但速度相当慢，而且很难验证。

Bret Taylor: It's not as bad as Perl, but if you have a big Python program, how many errors will you find at runtime versus before releasing it?

Bret Taylor：它不像 Perl 那么糟糕，但是如果你有一个大型 Python 程序，与发布之前相比，你在运行时会发现多少错误？

So, Python was designed to be very ergonomic, almost looked like pseudo code for humans, for me to write code in a delightful way.

所以，Python 的设计非常符合人体工程学，对于人类来说几乎看起来像伪代码，让我能够以一种令人愉快的方式编写代码。

That's why data scientists love it so much.

这就是数据科学家如此喜爱它的原因。

So as we move to a world where let's just postulate, and I'm not sure this will be completely true, that we're not going to write a lot of code as people.

因此，当我们进入一个让我们假设（我不确定这是否完全正确）的世界时，我们不会像人一样编写大量代码。

We're going to be operating these code-generating machines.

我们将操作这些代码生成机器。

We probably don't care how ergonomic the programming language is.

我们可能不关心编程语言是否符合人体工程学。

What we care about is when this machine generates code, do we know that it did what we wanted it to do?

我们关心的是，当这台机器生成代码时，我们是否知道它做了我们想要它做的事情？

And if it doesn't do we want it to do, can we change it easily?

如果它不是我们想要的，我们可以轻松地改变它吗？

I think there's a lot of insights in programming languages that could serve this.

我认为编程语言中有很多见解可以解决这个问题。

Bret Taylor: So Rust I think, is interesting because if I asked you to look at a C program and say, "Does it leak memory?" You probably couldn't do it that well just because it's really hard and if it's a very, a million line C program, it's going to be very, very hard.

Bret Taylor：我认为 Rust 很有趣，因为如果我让你看一个 C 程序并说，“它会泄漏内存吗？”你可能无法做得那么好，只是因为它真的很难，而且如果它是一个非常、一百万行的 C 程序，那将会非常非常困难。

If I asked you to verify that a Rust program doesn't leak memory, you would just have to compile it.

如果我要求您验证 Rust 程序不会泄漏内存，您只需编译它即可。

And because it has compile time, memory safety, just the act of compiling successfully tells you that's true.

而且因为它具有编译时间、内存安全性，仅编译成功的行为就告诉您这是真的。

I think we need more things like that because if an AI is generating this code, by definition, if you have to read every line that is going to be the limiting factor for producing the code or worse, you're just not going to read every line and you're going to emit a bunch of unsafe unverified code into the wild.

我认为我们需要更多类似的东西，因为如果人工智能生成此代码，根据定义，如果你必须读取每一行，这将成为生成代码的限制因素，或更糟的是，你不会读取每一行，并且会向野外发出一堆不安全的未经验证的代码。

Bret Taylor: And so, the question is how do you enable humans to have as much leverage as possible?

布雷特·泰勒：所以，问题是如何让人类拥有尽可能多的影响力？

Which means using computers to do the work on your behalf.

这意味着使用计算机代表您完成工作。

You could have obviously the simplest form of this, is AI supervising AI and doing code reviews and that's great.

显然，你可以采用最简单的形式，即人工智能监督人工智能并进行代码审查，这很棒。

Certainly, self-reflection is a really effective way of improving the robustness of an AI system.

当然，自我反思是提高人工智能系统鲁棒性的一种非常有效的方法。

But I do think if it doesn't matter how tedious it is to write the code, you could probably layer on some techniques that are out of fashion, like formal verification, unit testing, other things.

但我确实认为，如果编写代码有多乏味并不重要，您可能可以分层使用一些过时的技术，例如形式验证、单元测试等。

And if you layer all these on, I'm thinking about it as, I as a...

如果你将所有这些叠加起来，我会认为，我作为......

It's like the guy in the matrix with the green letters coming down, how can I make something so I as a operator of the code generating machine can produce incredibly complex scale software, incredibly quickly and know that it works?

就像矩阵中绿色字母向下的那个人一样，我怎样才能制作一些东西，以便我作为代码生成机的操作员可以以令人难以置信的速度生成令人难以置信的复杂规模的软件，并且知道它是有效的？

Bret Taylor: If you start with that as your design center, I think you'd probably changed the languages, you'd probably changed the systems, you'd probably change all these things and you're probably going to bring to bear a lot of things.

布雷特·泰勒：如果你以此为设计中心，我认为你可能会改变语言，你可能会改变系统，你可能会改变所有这些东西，你可能会带来很多东西。

And what's really fun about it is you can loosen a lot of constraints, like coding is free.

真正有趣的是你可以放松很多限制，比如编码是免费的。

Okay, so that's neat.

好的，这样就很好了。

With that in mind, what do you want to do?

考虑到这一点，你想做什么？

What would be best suited for the language, the compiler for testing, for self-reflection, for supervisor models, all these things.

什么最适合该语言，用于测试的编译器，用于自我反思的编译器，用于主管模型的编译器，所有这些东西。

I think that's more of a programming system than a language, but I think when we create something like that, it can really enable creators, builders to create incredibly robust, incredibly complex systems.

我认为这更像是一个编程系统，而不是一种语言，但我认为当我们创建类似的东西时，它确实可以使创建者、构建者能够创建极其强大、极其复杂的系统。

Bret Taylor: And I'm super excited about VibeCoding, but I don't know generating a prototype has been the limiting factor in software ever.

Bret Taylor：我对 VibeCoding 感到非常兴奋，但我不知道生成原型一直是软件的限制因素。

It's actually building increasingly complex systems and actually changing them with agility.

它实际上正在构建越来越复杂的系统，并实际上敏捷地改变它们。

If you look at the famous Netscape one to Netscape two rewrite, somewhat, a lot of people attribute that to part of their failure against Internet Explorer.

如果你看看著名的 Netscape 1 到 Netscape 2 的重写，在某种程度上，很多人将其归因于他们针对 Internet Explorer 的失败。

It's like making these things is not hard.

好像做这些东西并不难。

Maintaining them is hard and ensuring they're robust is hard.

维护它们很困难，确保它们稳健也很困难。

And I think we're in the very early phases of defining what this new system for developing software looks like and I'm very excited to see what emerges.

我认为我们正处于定义这个用于开发软件的新系统的早期阶段，我很高兴看到会出现什么。

Lenny Rachitsky: I feel like we're definitely living in the future when someone like you is suggesting that we build a matrix like experience and that's going to be potentially the future of coding and building.

Lenny Rachitsky：当像你这样的人建议我们构建一个类似体验的矩阵时，我觉得我们肯定生活在未来，而这可能是编码和构建的未来。

I can't wait for that.

我等不及了。

It feels like a great opportunity and a fun project.

这感觉像是一个很好的机会和一个有趣的项目。

Lenny Rachitsky: This episode is brought to you by Vanta and I'm very excited to have Christina Cacioppo CEO and co-founder Vanta joining me for this very short conversation.

Lenny Rachitsky：这一集是由 Vanta 为您带来的，我很高兴克里斯蒂娜·卡乔波 (Christina Cacioppo) 首席执行官兼联合创始人 Vanta 与我一起进行这个简短的对话。

Christina Cacioppo: Great to be here.

克里斯蒂娜·卡乔波：很高兴来到这里。

Big fan of the podcast and the newsletter.

播客和时事通讯的忠实粉丝。

Lenny Rachitsky: Vanta is a long time sponsor of the show, but for some of our newer listeners, what does Vanta do and who is it for?

Lenny Rachitsky：Vanta 是该节目的长期赞助商，但对于我们的一些新听众来说，Vanta 是做什么的？它是为谁服务的？

Christina Cacioppo: Sure.

克里斯蒂娜·卡乔波：当然。

So we started Vanta in 2018 focused on founders helping them start to build out their security programs and get credit for all of that hard security work with compliance certifications like SOC 2 or ISO 2701.

因此，我们于 2018 年创立了 Vanta，重点帮助创始人帮助他们开始构建安全计划，并通过 SOC 2 或 ISO 2701 等合规性认证为所有艰苦的安全工作赢得赞誉。

Today, we currently help over 9,000 companies including some start-up household names like Atlassian Ramp and LangChain, start and scale their security programs and ultimately, build trust by automating compliance, centralizing GRC, and accelerating security reviews.

如今，我们目前帮助超过 9,000 家公司（包括 Atlassian Ramp 和 LangChain 等一些家喻户晓的初创公司）启动和扩展其安全计划，并最终通过自动化合规性、集中 GRC 和加速安全审查来建立信任。

Lenny Rachitsky: That is awesome.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：太棒了。

I know from experience that these things take a lot of time and a lot of resources and nobody wants to spend time doing this.

我从经验中知道，这些事情需要花费大量时间和资源，没有人愿意花时间来做这件事。

Christina Cacioppo: That is very much our experience, but before the company and to some extent, during it.

Christina Cacioppo：这就是我们的经验，但在公司成立之前以及在某种程度上是在公司成立期间。

But the idea is with automation, with AI, with software, we are helping customers build trust with prospects and customers in an efficient way.

但我们的想法是通过自动化、人工智能和软件，我们正在帮助客户以有效的方式与潜在客户和客户建立信任。

And our joke, we started this compliance company so you don't have to.

我们开玩笑说，我们创办了这家合规公司，这样您就不必这么做了。

Lenny Rachitsky: We appreciate you for doing that.

Lenny Rachitsky：我们感谢您这样做。

And you have a special discount for listeners.

而且您还为听众提供特别折扣。

They can get $1,000 off Vanta at vanta.com/lenny.

他们可在vanta.com/lenny 上享受Vanta 1,000 美元优惠。

That's V-A-N-T-A .com/lenny for $1,000 off Vanta.

访问 V-A-N-T-A .com/lenny，Vanta 优惠 1,000 美元。

Thanks for that, Christina.

谢谢你，克里斯蒂娜。

Lenny Rachitsky: Okay.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：好的。

One more question along these lines and then I want to zoom out on just where AI is heading and something I love to ask folks like you that are at the cutting edge of AI is what you're teaching your kids.

沿着这些思路还有一个问题，然后我想缩小人工智能的发展方向，我喜欢问像你们这样处于人工智能最前沿的人，你们正在教你们的孩子什么。

I know you have kids, I feel like the world is going to be very different when they grow up.

我知道你有孩子，我觉得他们长大后世界会变得非常不同。

What are you encouraging them to learn that you think is different maybe from previous generations to help them be successful in a world of AI abundance?

您鼓励他们学习哪些您认为可能与前几代人不同的知识，以帮助他们在人工智能丰富的世界中取得成功？

Bret Taylor: I don't know if I'm teaching them differently, but I'm really trying to encourage them to make AI a part of their lives.

Bret Taylor：我不知道我是否以不同的方式教导他们，但我真的很努力鼓励他们让人工智能成为他们生活的一部分。

I was reflecting actually when I took the AP calculus exams in '97, '98 AB and BC, I could use a graphing calculator.

我实际上在反思，当我参加97年、98年AB和BC的AP微积分考试时，我可以使用图形计算器。

And I haven't done this research I was meaning to plug this into ChatGPT before our conversation, but I'll do it after.

我还没有做过这项研究，我打算在我们谈话之前将其插入 ChatGPT，但我会在谈话之后做。

Did the calculus exam change before and after they allowed the calculator in the exam?

在允许计算器参加考试之前和之后，微积分考试有变化吗？

I assume it did.

我想是的。

But essentially, to when you allow the calculator in the exam, you need to make sure that none of the questions benefit people for having a calculator or not, which actually forces you to rethink the problems to test calculus knowledge that don't benefit from like road arithmetic or the other things you can do on a graphing calculator.

但本质上，当你允许在考试中使用计算器时，你需要确保没有任何问题对人们有计算器或没有计算器有好处，这实际上迫使你重新思考问题来测试微积分知识，这些知识不会从道路算术或你可以在图形计算器上做的其他事情中受益。

Bret Taylor: I think that a lot of education doesn't presume you have a super intelligence in your pocket.

布雷特·泰勒：我认为很多教育并不假定你拥有超强的智力。

And so, if you ask someone to write an essay on a book that they read, you could probably hallucinate one pretty easily from one of the big providers like ChatGPT.

因此，如果你要求某人就他们读过的一本书写一篇文章，你可能很容易就会从像 ChatGPT 这样的大型提供商那里想象出一篇文章。

And maybe if you are skilled enough that prompting, maybe even your teacher won't know it's written by an AI.

也许如果你足够熟练地进行提示，也许连你的老师都不会知道它是由人工智能编写的。

So what do you do?

那么你做什么呢？

How do you teach kids differently?

你如何以不同的方式教导孩子？

It's really hard for teachers right now because I think we haven't gone through the transition of adding calculators to the exams.

现在对老师来说真的很难，因为我认为我们还没有经历在考试中添加计算器的过渡。

So, I think a lot of the mechanisms we have to evaluate students are broken by the existence of ChatGPT and the like.

所以，我认为我们评估学生的很多机制都被 ChatGPT 等的存在所打破。

So I think we're in a very awkward phase, but I think we can still both teach kids how to think and teach kids how to learn.

所以我认为我们正处于一个非常尴尬的阶段，但我认为我们仍然可以教孩子们如何思考和教孩子们如何学习。

And I think our education system can catch up and I actually think these models can be one of the most effective educational tools in history.

我认为我们的教育系统可以迎头赶上，而且我实际上认为这些模式可以成为历史上最有效的教育工具之一。

Bret Taylor: I don't know if you're a visual learner or reading learner.

布雷特·泰勒：我不知道你是视觉学习者还是阅读学习者。

I like to read.

我喜欢读书。

I didn't love going to lectures.

我不喜欢去听讲座。

I don't learn that well from them.

我从他们那里学得不太好。

I like to read the book and if you have a teacher who doesn't teach in your style, you can now go home and ask ChatGPT to teach you in another mechanism.

我喜欢看这本书，如果你的老师不以你的风格教学，你现在可以回家并要求 ChatGPT 以另一种机制来教你。

My kids use ChatGPT to quiz them before a test.

我的孩子在考试前使用 ChatGPT 进行测验。

You can use audio mode or chat mode.

您可以使用音频模式或聊天模式。

It's better than cue cards.

这比提示卡更好。

My daughter took home a Shakespeare book, she took a picture of a page she didn't understand and ChatGPT explained it to her way better than I would've as well.

我女儿带回家一本莎士比亚的书，她拍了一张她不理解的页面的照片，ChatGPT 向她解释的方式也比我更好。

I think every child in this world has a personalized tutor that can teach them in the way that they best learn, visually, over audio, reading.

我认为这个世界上的每个孩子都有一位个性化的导师，可以用他们最好的学习方式（视觉、音频、阅读）来教他们。

We have a platform that can test you, that can quiz you.

我们有一个平台可以测试你，可以测验你。

I think it's really an amplifier of agency.

我认为这确实是代理的放大器。

Bret Taylor: I think the kids who have agency, who have aspirations to learn something, I think you have what is the best combination of every teacher you've ever had and these models and you can use it.

布雷特·泰勒：我认为那些有自主性、渴望学习一些东西的孩子，我认为你拥有你所见过的每一位老师和这些模型的最佳组合，你可以使用它。

So with my kids, my oldest daughter learned how to code and she was making a website and every time she had a question for me, I would just make her use ChatGPT.

所以和我的孩子们一起，我的大女儿学会了如何编码，她正在制作一个网站，每次她有问题问我时，我都会让她使用 ChatGPT。

Not because I was trying to be an obnoxious father, but I'm like she needs to learn to use this tool because it's amazing.

不是因为我想成为一个令人讨厌的父亲，而是我觉得她需要学习使用这个工具，因为它太棒了。

Bret Taylor: So, I really am trying to have them learn how to use it constructively in their lives.

布雷特·泰勒：所以，我真的很努力让他们学习如何在生活中建设性地使用它。

But all that said, I just feel a ton of empathy for public school teachers right now.

但话虽如此，我现在对公立学校的老师感到非常同情。

It's very hard because the technology is moving faster than our educational system.

这非常困难，因为技术的发展速度比我们的教育系统更快。

And I think particularly as it relates to evaluation, it's just really challenging for teachers right now.

我认为，特别是与评估相关的，现在对教师来说确实具有挑战性。

And I worry because these technologies amplify agency, the opposite can also be true.

我担心，因为这些技术会放大代理作用，但相反的情况也可能成立。

If you are a student trying to not learn something, I think these tools probably provide a lot of mechanisms to avoid it as well.

如果您是一名试图不学习某些东西的学生，我认为这些工具可能也提供了很多机制来避免它。

And so, I think there's a challenge for parents and teachers and I think we're going to end up with a handful of years here.

因此，我认为家长和老师面临着挑战，我认为我们最终将在这里度过几年。

Bret Taylor: But I brought up the calculus AP exam because obviously, a graphing calculator is not ChatGPT, don't get me wrong.

Bret Taylor：但我提到了微积分 AP 考试，因为显然图形计算器不是 ChatGPT，请不要误会我的意思。

But I think we've been able to figure out a way to conform homework and in-class learning and tests around the technologies available to us fairly successfully to date.

但我认为我们已经能够找到一种方法，使家庭作业、课堂学习和测试围绕迄今为止我们可用的技术相当成功。

And I'm fairly confident we'll figure it out and I think it's going to...

我相当有信心我们会解决这个问题，我认为这会......

And on the much more positive side, I don't know, I went to public schools, I don't know if you did too.

从更积极的一面来看，我不知道，我上过公立学校，我不知道你是否也这么做过。

You end up with some pretty bad teachers at times and now, you have an outlet.

有时你会遇到一些非常糟糕的老师，而现在，你有一个出路。

You don't need to be the rich kid who can afford a tutor anymore to get tutoring.

你不再需要成为能请得起家教的富家子弟才能获得家教。

If you are a kid who excels in math and your school doesn't have advanced statistics classes, well, now you do.

如果你是一个数学成绩优异的孩子，而你的学校没有高级统计课程，那么现在你有了。

Bret Taylor: So I think this is just an incredibly democratizing force with kids who have agency and I think that's very exciting.

布雷特·泰勒：所以我认为这对于有代理权的孩子来说是一种令人难以置信的民主化力量，我认为这非常令人兴奋。

I'm hopeful that there's a 11-year-old right now who's going to start a really amazing company 10 years from now whose ChatGPT is going to be their primary tutor that led to that outcome.

我希望现在有一个 11 岁的孩子将在 10 年后创办一家真正令人惊叹的公司，而 ChatGPT 将成为他们的主要导师，从而实现这一结果。

And I think that's pretty cool.

我认为这很酷。

Lenny Rachitsky: I have a two-year-old and it feels like there's a new milestone of, there's like when to give them a phone, when to give them, I don't know, Snapchat, whatever kids use these days and then it's like when to give them their first ChatGPT account.

Lenny Rachitsky：我有一个两岁的孩子，感觉就像是一个新的里程碑，比如什么时候给他们一部手机，什么时候给他们，我不知道，Snapchat，无论孩子们现在使用什么，然后就像什么时候给他们第一个 ChatGPT 帐户。

Well no, I wonder how soon that's supposed to happen.

好吧，不，我想知道这会发生多久。

Bret Taylor: I think my personal take is, it's different than the former two.

布雷特·泰勒：我认为我个人的看法是，它与前两者不同。

I don't think mobile phones are great in school or great for kids and I personally advocate for waiting a long time.

我不认为手机在学校里有什么好处，也不适合孩子们，我个人主张等待很长时间。

But I think that ChatGPT is more like Google search and it's one thing to have a device in your pocket that's addictive and has push notifications, but it's another thing to use AI to learn.

但我认为 ChatGPT 更像是 Google 搜索，口袋里有一个令人上瘾且具有推送通知的设备是一回事，但使用 AI 来学习则是另一回事。

And so, I think the two are different.

所以，我认为两者是不同的。

And I really think of AI fundamentally as a utility.

我确实认为人工智能从根本上来说是一种实用工具。

I don't think a lot of parents before ChatGPT said, "When should I let my kid use Google search?" That's a different type of tool.

我想在 ChatGPT 出现之前，没有多少家长会问：“我什么时候应该让我的孩子使用 Google 搜索？”这是一种不同类型的工具。

I think thinking of it like that is the way I think about these technologies.

我认为这样的想法就是我思考这些技术的方式。

Lenny Rachitsky: Is the form factor for your kids like an iPad or a laptop or something?

Lenny Rachitsky：适合您孩子的外形尺寸是 iPad 或笔记本电脑之类的吗？

Bret Taylor: Yeah.

布雷特·泰勒：是的。

They use the computer on the desk.

他们使用桌上的电脑。

Lenny Rachitsky: Got it.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：明白了。

All right.

好的。

Good tips.

好提示。

This is good for me to learn all these things as my kid ages.

随着我的孩子长大，这对我来说学习所有这些东西是有好处的。

Okay, I'm going to zoom out and let's talk about business strategy AI.

好吧，我要缩小范围，让我们谈谈商业策略人工智能。

One of the biggest questions a lot of founders think about these days is just where should I build?

如今，许多创始人思考的最大问题之一是我应该在哪里构建？

What will foundational model companies not squash and do themselves?

基础模型公司不会挤压并自己做哪些事情？

Being someone building a very successful AI business and also being on the board of OpenAI, feel like you have a really unique perspective on what is probably a good idea and it's probably not a good idea.

作为一个建立了非常成功的人工智能业务并且同时也是 OpenAI 董事会成员的人，你会觉得自己对什么是好主意、什么是坏主意有着非常独特的视角。

How do you think the AI market is going to play out and where do you think founders should focus and also just try to avoid?

您认为人工智能市场将如何发展？您认为创始人应该关注哪些领域，并尽量避免？

Bret Taylor: I think there's three segments of the AI market that will end up fairly meaningful markets and then I'll end with how I think it's going to play out.

Bret Taylor：我认为人工智能市场的三个部分最终将成为相当有意义的市场，然后我会以我认为它将如何发展来结束。

So first is the frontier model market or foundation model market.

首先是前沿模型市场或基础模型市场。

I think this will end up the small handful of hyperscalers and really big labs just like the cloud infrastructure as a service market.

我认为这最终将是少数超大规模企业和真正的大型实验室，就像云基础设施即服务市场一样。

And the reason for that is that creating a frontier model is entirely a function of CapEx.

原因是创建前沿模型完全是资本支出的函数。

And you need a company with huge amounts of CapEx capacity to build one of these models.

您需要一家拥有大量资本支出能力的公司来构建其中一种模型。

All of the companies that were startups that tried to do this have already been consolidated or almost all of them, inflection, adapt, character and others.

所有试图做到这一点的初创公司都已经被整合或几乎所有，变形，适应，性格和其他。

And I think there doesn't appear to be a viable business model for a startup because of the amount of CapEx required and there's just not enough fundraising runway to get to escape velocity.

我认为对于初创公司来说似乎没有可行的商业模式，因为所需的资本支出数额很大，而且没有足够的筹款跑道来达到逃逸速度。

And also, the models deteriorate in value fairly quickly as an asset class.

而且，作为一种资产类别，这些模型的价值下降得相当快。

Bret Taylor: And so, you need just a lot of scale to make a return on the investment for a model that deteriorates in value so quickly.

布雷特·泰勒：因此，你只需要很大的规模就能为价值快速贬值的模型带来投资回报。

So, I think that's going to end up probably no entrepreneur should build a frontier model.

所以，我认为最终可能没有企业家应该建立前沿模型。

That's my take.

这就是我的看法。

Bret Taylor: Yeah.

布雷特·泰勒：是的。

Oh, yeah.

哦，是的。

He's different.

他不一样。

And he has the capacity to raise billions in capital and my guess is most of your other listeners don't, and then he is the greatest of all time for reason and he's different.

他有能力筹集数十亿美元的资金，我猜大多数其他听众都没有，然后他是有史以来最伟大的，因为他是有原因的，而且他与众不同。

You don't compare yourself to him.

你不会把自己和他比较。

The other part of the market is the tooling, and I think there's a lot of folks selling pickaxes in the Gold Rush.

市场的另一部分是工具，我认为在淘金热中有很多人出售镐。

This is data labeling, services.

这就是数据标签、服务。

This is data platforms, it's eval tools.

这是数据平台，是评估工具。

More specialized models like 11 Labs has a great set of voice models that a lot of companies use that are really high quality and it's like if you're trying to be successful in AI, what are the different tools and services that you need?

像 11 Labs 这样更专业的模型有一套很棒的语音模型，很多公司都在使用它们，它们的质量非常高，就像如果你想在人工智能领域取得成功，你需要哪些不同的工具和服务？

Bret Taylor: There is some risk to the tooling market because it's pretty close to the sun.

Bret Taylor：模具市场存在一些风险，因为它距离太阳非常近。

So, if you look at the infrastructure as a service market and the cloud tooling market like the Confluent and Databricks and Snowflake, a lot of the Amazon and Azure and others have competing products in those areas because they're very adjacent to the infrastructure itself and every infrastructure provider is trying to differentiate by moving up the stack and you're right there.

因此，如果你看看基础设施即服务市场和云工具市场，比如 Confluence、Databricks 和 Snowflake，你会发现很多 Amazon、Azure 和其他公司在这些领域都有竞争产品，因为它们与基础设施本身非常接近，每个基础设施提供商都试图通过提升堆栈来实现差异化，而你就在那里。

Bret Taylor: So, there's some real meaningful companies as I mentioned, like Snowflake, Databricks, Confluent and others, but there's a lot of others that were obviated by technology from the infrastructure providers themselves.

Bret Taylor：所以，正如我提到的，有一些真正有意义的公司，比如 Snowflake、Databricks、Confluence 等，但还有很多其他公司被基础设施提供商本身的技术所淘汰。

So those companies probably are the most at risk for a developer day from one of these big foundation model companies releasing exactly what they do.

因此，这些公司可能是开发者日面临的最大风险，因为这些大型基础模型公司之一准确地发布了他们的产品。

So there's probably a lot of people who need your tool, but the question will be if or when is probably the right way to think about it, one of these large infrastructure providers introduces a competitor, why will people continue to choose you?

因此，可能有很多人需要您的工具，但问题是，是否或何时可能是正确的思考方式，这些大型基础设施提供商之一引入了竞争对手，为什么人们会继续选择您？

So it's a good market but it's a little bit close to the end as I said.

所以这是一个很好的市场，但正如我所说，它已经接近尾声了。

Bret Taylor: Then there's the applied AI market.

Bret Taylor：然后是应用人工智能市场。

I think this will play out for companies who build agents.

我认为这对于建立代理的公司来说将会发挥作用。

I think agent is the new app.

我认为代理是新的应用程序。

I think that's going to be the product form factor.

我认为这将是产品的外形因素。

There's companies like Sierra, we help companies build agents to answer the phone or answer the chat for customer experience and customer service.

有像 Sierra 这样的公司，我们帮助公司建立代理来接听电话或接听聊天，以实现客户体验和客户服务。

There's companies like Harvey that make agents for both a legal, paralegal profession, anti-trust reviews, reviewing contracts etc, etc. There's companies that do content marketing.

像 Harvey 这样的公司为法律、律师助理、反垄断审查、合同审查等提供代理。还有一些公司从事内容营销。

There's companies that do supply chain analysis.

有些公司进行供应链分析。

I think this is like the software as a service market.

我认为这就像软件即服务市场。

They'll probably be higher margin companies because you're selling something that achieves a business outcome as opposed to being a byproduct of the models themselves.

它们可能是利润率较高的公司，因为你销售的东西可以实现业务成果，而不是模型本身的副产品。

They will almost certainly pay taxes down to the model providers, which is why those model providers will end up extremely large scale but probably slightly lower margin and I think the market for them will be probably less technical.

他们几乎肯定会向模型提供商缴纳税款，这就是为什么这些模型提供商最终会规模极大，但利润率可能会略低，而且我认为他们的市场可能技术性较低。

Bret Taylor: If you think about the purest form of software as a service, it's not like you ask what database do you use?

Bret Taylor：如果你考虑最纯粹的软件即服务形式，你就不会问你使用什么数据库？

It's really about the feature and function.

这实际上与特性和功能有关。

I think that's where agents will go.

我认为这就是特工们会去的地方。

I think it's going to be more about product than it is about technology over time.

我认为随着时间的推移，产品将比技术更重要。

Just going back to my metaphor, in 1998 when Mark and Parker started Salesforce, just getting that database running in the cloud was like a technical achievement.

回到我的比喻，1998 年，当 Mark 和 Parker 创办 Salesforce 时，仅仅让数据库在云中运行就像是一项技术成就。

Nowadays, no one asks about that because you can just spin up a database in AWS or Azure and it's like no problem.

如今，没有人问这个问题，因为您只需在 AWS 或 Azure 中启动数据库就可以了，这似乎没有问题。

I think today, orchestrating an agentic process on top of the models, sounds really fancy and it's really hard and all that stuff.

我认为今天，在模型之上编排一个代理过程，听起来非常奇特，但确实很难。

I'm pretty sure that's going to be easy in three or four years.

我很确定三四年后这会变得很容易。

It's just like just as the technology improves.

就像技术进步一样。

And so, over time you say, what is an agent company?

那么，久而久之你就会说，什么是代理公司？

Well, it looks a little bit like as a service.

嗯，它看起来有点像服务。

Bret Taylor: You talk a little bit less about how you deal with the models in the same way modern SaaS, few people ask what database you use, but you'll probably ask a lot about the workflows and what business outcomes that you're driving.

Bret Taylor：您很少谈论如何以现代 SaaS 的方式处理模型，很少有人问您使用什么数据库，但您可能会问很多有关工作流程以及您正在推动的业务成果的问题。

Are you generating leads for a sales team?

您是否正在为销售团队寻找潜在客户？

Are you minimizing your procurement spend?

您是否正在最大限度地减少采购支出？

Whatever value you're providing, it's going to slowly evolve towards that.

无论你提供什么价值，它都会慢慢朝着这个方向发展。

Bret Taylor: I'm very excited.

布雷特·泰勒：我非常兴奋。

I don't think startups should probably build foundation models.

我认为初创公司不应该建立基础模型。

But you can shoot your shot if you have a vision for the future, go for it.

但如果你对未来有愿景，就可以大胆尝试，放手一搏。

But I think it's probably a challenging market that's already consolidated.

但我认为这可能是一个已经整合的具有挑战性的市场。

I'm very excited about the other two markets.

我对其他两个市场感到非常兴奋。

I'm particularly excited as building agents becomes easier, to see a lot of long tail agent companies come out.

我特别兴奋，因为建筑代理变得更加容易，看到很多长尾代理公司的出现。

I was looking at a website for the top 50 software companies in the stock market and obviously, the top five are the big, big boom ones like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, all that, but the next 50 are all SaaS companies and some of them are very exciting, some of them are super boring, but this is how the software market has evolved and I think we're going to see something similar with agents.

我正在查看股票市场上 50 家软件公司的网站，很明显，前 5 名都是像微软、亚马逊、谷歌这样的大公司，但接下来的 50 家都是 SaaS 公司，其中一些非常令人兴奋，其中一些非常无聊，但这就是软件市场的演变方式，我认为我们将在代理方面看到类似的情况。

Bret Taylor: It's not just going to be these huge markets like we're in customer service and software engineering.

布雷特·泰勒：这不仅仅是像我们在客户服务和软件工程领域那样的巨大市场。

It's going to be a lot of things where people are spending a lot of time and resources that an agent can just solve, but it requires an entrepreneur who actually understands that business problem, and deeply, and I think that's where a lot of the value is going to be unlocked in the AI market.

很多事情需要人们花费大量的时间和资源，而代理可以解决，但这需要一个真正深入了解业务问题的企业家，我认为这就是人工智能市场中将释放大量价值的地方。

Lenny Rachitsky: That is incredibly helpful.

Lenny Rachitsky：这非常有帮助。

This makes me think about, I had Marc Benioff on the podcast, you guys were co-CEOs and he was extremely agent-pilled.

这让我想到，我在播客上邀请了马克·贝尼奥夫，你们是联合首席执行官，而他的经纪人非常多。

All he wanted to talk about was Agentforce.

他只想谈论特工部队。

Clearly you're also very agent-pilled.

显然你也被经纪人占据了很多。

What is it that-

那是什么——

Bret Taylor: I've never heard the term agent-pilled .

布雷特·泰勒：我从来没有听说过“代理填充”这个词。

Lenny Rachitsky: Clearly you guys saw something that was just like, okay, we need to go all in on agents.

Lenny Rachitsky：显然你们看到了这样的事情，好吧，我们需要全力以赴寻找特工。

This is the future.

这就是未来。

What is it you think people are missing about just why this is such a critical change in the way software is going to work?

您认为人们错过了什么，为什么这是软件工作方式的如此关键的变化？

What are people not seeing?

人们看不到什么？

Bret Taylor: If you talk to an economist like Larry Summers who, on the OpenAI board with me, they'll talk about what is the value of technology?

Bret Taylor：如果你和拉里·萨默斯（Larry Summers）这样的经济学家交谈，他和我一起在 OpenAI 董事会上，他们会谈论技术的价值是什么？

Will it help strive productivity in the economy.

它是否有助于提高经济生产力？

And if you look at one of the big jumps in productivity in the economy was in the '90s, and I think a lot of folks I talked to think it was actually that very first wave of computing where people made ERP systems and just put accounting into computers and databases, even mainframes, we're talking like the PC era.

如果你看看经济生产力的大幅跃升是在 90 年代，我想我采访过的很多人都认为这实际上是第一波计算浪潮，人们制作了 ERP 系统，然后将会计放入计算机和数据库，甚至大型机中，我们谈论的就像 PC 时代。

Because it was such a huge step-up, just imagine the ledgers of numbers that you'd have for a large multinational company before and it truly just transformed departments.

因为这是一个如此巨大的进步，想象一下你以前为一家大型跨国公司所拥有的数字账本，它确实改变了部门。

Bret Taylor: I'll give you a little toy example.

布雷特·泰勒：我给你举一个小例子。

My dad just retired.

我爸爸刚刚退休。

He was a mechanical engineer and he was talking about when he first started his career in the late '70s and he went into a mechanical engineering firm, the majority of the firm were drafts people.

他是一名机械工程师，他正在谈论他在 70 年代末刚开始自己​​的职业生涯时进入一家机械工程公司，该公司的大多数员工都是绘图员。

So basically, you take an engineering design but you needed to do all the different vantage points and for all the different floors and to give to the contractor to do the thing.

所以基本上，你进行了工程设计，但你需要为所有不同的楼层做所有不同的有利位置，并交给承包商来做这件事。

Now, there are zero drafts people at his company.

现在，他的公司里草稿人为零。

You just make the design in first AutoCAD and now Revit and it's a 3D model and the drafting has actually been eliminated.

您只需在最初的 AutoCAD 中进行设计，现在在 Revit 中进行设计，它是一个 3D 模型，并且实际上已经消除了绘图。

It's just not a thing one needs to do anymore.

这不再是一件需要做的事情了。

The actual design and drafting, drafting is not a thing that exists.

实际的设计和起草、起草并不是一个存在的东西。

It's just a design.

这只是一个设计。

That's true productivity gains, right?

这才是真正的生产力提升，对吗？

It's like the job of the mechanical engineering firm was to do a design.

这就像机械工程公司的工作就是进行设计一样。

The drafting was this necessary output for the contractor, but it wasn't really adding value.

起草工作对于承包商来说是必要的输出，但它并没有真正增加价值。

It was just like the supply chain change.

这就像供应链的变化一样。

Bret Taylor: If you look at the history of the software industry from the PC on, there's been meaningful productivity gains but just not nearly as meaningful as that first huge jump.

Bret Taylor：如果你从 PC 开始回顾软件行业的历史，就会发现生产率有了显着的提高，但远没有第一次巨大的飞跃那么有意义。

And I'm not smart enough to know exactly why, but it is interesting, the promise of productivity gains from technology hasn't been as realized I think as some people thought.

我不够聪明，无法确切地知道原因，但有趣的是，技术带来的生产力提高的承诺并没有像某些人想象的那样实现。

I think agents will truly start to bend the curve again like we did in the very early days of computing because software is going from helping an individual be slightly more productive to actually accomplishing a job autonomously.

我认为代理将真正开始再次弯曲曲线，就像我们在计算的早期所做的那样，因为软件正在从帮助个人稍微提高生产力到真正自主地完成工作。

And as a consequence, just like you don't need drafts people in a mechanical engineering firm, you just won't need someone doing that thing anymore.

因此，就像机械工程公司不需要绘图人员一样，您也不再需要有人做那件事了。

It means they can do something else that's higher leverage and more productive and you can actually...

这意味着他们可以做一些其他事情，杠杆率更高，生产力更高，而你实际上可以......

A smaller group of people can accomplish more and truly drive productivity gains in the economy.

一小群人可以完成更多工作，并真正推动经济生产力的提高。

Bret Taylor: And I think if you've ever sold enterprise software, you end up in these discussions as a vendor with the customer where you'll have a value discussion and you'll do these somewhat convoluted things like okay, it's like you're selling a sales thing.

布雷特·泰勒：我认为如果你曾经销售过企业软件，你最终会作为供应商与客户进行这些讨论，在那里你会进行价值讨论，你会做这些有些复杂的事情，比如好吧，就像你在销售销售产品一样。

Okay, well, if every salesperson sells 5% more...

好吧，如果每个销售员的销量都增加 5%...

And you should pay us a million dollars.

你应该付给我们一百万美元。

And it's roughly that conversation and it's so unattributable especially...

大致就是这样的对话，而且它是如此难以归因，尤其是......

And it's why it's so hard to sell productivity software, which I learned the hard way, it's just hard to know what's the value of making everyone 10% more productive?

这就是为什么销售生产力软件如此困难，我经历了惨痛的教训，很难知道让每个人的生产力提高 10% 的价值是什么？

Did you actually make them 10% more productive or did something else change?

您真的让他们的生产力提高了 10% 还是做了其他改变？

You don't really know all these things.

你并不真正了解所有这些事情。

But now with an agent actually accomplishing a job, not only is it actually truly driving productivity in a very real way, but it's measurable as well.

但现在，当座席真正完成一项工作时，它不仅真正以一种非常真实的方式真正提高了生产力，而且也是可以衡量的。

Bret Taylor: So all those things combined means I think this is actually a step change in how we think about software because it does a job autonomously, which is more self-evident, a productivity driver.

布雷特·泰勒：所有这些因素结合起来意味着我认为这实际上是我们对软件的看法发生了一步改变，因为它可以自主完成工作，这是不言而喻的生产力驱动因素。

It's measurable so people value it differently as well, which is why I also believe in outcomes-based pricing for software.

它是可衡量的，因此人们对它的评价也不同，这就是为什么我也相信基于结果的软件定价。

Bret Taylor: And all of that combined to me, it feels like as significant as the cloud or I think more technologically, but just in terms of how it transforms the business model of the software industry where there's going to be a before and after.

布雷特·泰勒：对我来说，所有这些结合起来，感觉就像云一样重要，或者我从技术角度思考，但只是就它如何改变软件行业的商业模式而言，会有一个之前和之后。

I don't know how many people still sell perpetually licensed on premises software, but it's de minimis at this point.

我不知道有多少人仍在销售永久许可的本地软件，但目前这是微乎其微的。

I think we're going to go through a similar transition.

我认为我们将经历类似的转变。

The whole market is going to go towards agents.

整个市场将走向代理商。

I think the whole market is going to go towards outcomes-based pricing, not because it's the only way, but the market is going to pull everyone there because it's just so obviously the correct way to build and sell software.

我认为整个市场将走向基于结果的定价，不是因为这是唯一的方法，而是市场将把每个人都吸引到那里，因为这显然是构建和销售软件的正确方法。

Lenny Rachitsky: Let me pull on that last thread.

Lenny Rachitsky：让我继续讲最后一条线索。

So we had Madhavan on the podcast recently, pricing expert, legend, monetizing innovation author and he talked about pricing strategy for AI companies and he was very much in your camp of, if you can, you need to price your product as an outcome-based product and the access uses exactly what you shared, which is, you can do that if you can attribute the impact and it's autonomous, it's running on its own.

所以我们最近在播客上邀请了 Madhavan，定价专家、传奇人物、货币化创新作者，他谈到了人工智能公司的定价策略，他非常同意你的阵营，如果可以的话，你需要将你的产品定价为基于结果的产品，并且访问完全使用你共享的内容，也就是说，如果你可以归因于影响并且它是自主的，它是独立运行的，你就可以做到这一点。

And he actually used Sierra as one of the shining examples of this being successful.

他实际上将塞拉作为成功的光辉例子之一。

Can you just briefly just explain a little bit what is outcome-based pricing for people that haven't heard this term before and then just how does it work for Sierra to give an example?

您能否为之前没有听说过这个术语的人们简单解释一下什么是基于结果的定价，然后让 Sierra 举个例子，它是如何运作的？

Bret Taylor: Yeah, I'll start with the example and then I'll broaden it.

布雷特·泰勒：是的，我将从示例开始，然后扩展它。

So at Sierra, we help companies make customer facing AI agents primarily for customer service, but more broadly, for customer experience.

因此，在 Sierra，我们帮助公司打造面向客户的人工智能代理，主要用于客户服务，但更广泛地说，是为了客户体验。

So if you have a problem with your , you'll call or chat with Harmony, who's their AI agent.

因此，如果您的 出现问题，您可以致电 Harmony 或与其聊天，Harmony 是他们的 AI 代理。

If you have ADT home security and your alarm doesn't work, you can chat with their AI agent.

如果您有 ADT 家庭安全并且您的警报不起作用，您可以与他们的 AI 代理聊天。

Sonos speakers, a lot of different consumer brands.

Sonos 扬声器，有很多不同的消费品牌。

And if you think about running a call center, there's a cost for every phone call that you take.

如果您考虑运营呼叫中心，那么您接听的每个电话都会产生费用。

Most of it is labor costs, but if you have, let's just say a typical phone call is anywhere between 10 and $20 USD.

其中大部分是人工成本，但如果有的话，我们就说一个典型的电话费用在 10 到 20 美元之间。

Some of it's software, some of it's telephony, but a lot of it is just like the hourly wage of the person answering the phone.

有些是软件，有些是电话，但很多就像接电话的人的小时工资。

Bret Taylor: So if an AI agent can take that call and solve it, that is in the industry often called a call deflection or a containment.

Bret Taylor：因此，如果人工智能代理可以接听该呼叫并解决它，这在业内通常称为呼叫偏转或遏制。

And that essentially means you saved, call it $15 because you didn't have to have someone pick up the phone.

这本质上意味着你节省了，称之为 15 美元，因为你不需要有人接电话。

So in our industry, basically we say, "Hey, if the AI agent solves the customer's problem, they're happy with it and you didn't have to pick up the phone," there's a pre-negotiated rate for that and we call it resolution based.

因此，在我们的行业中，基本上我们会说，“嘿，如果人工智能代理解决了客户的问题，他们会对此感到满意，而且你不必拿起电话，”对此有一个预先协商好的费率，我们称之为基于解决方案。

There are other outcomes as well.

还有其他结果。

We have some sales agents being paid a sales commission, believe it or not.

不管你信不信，我们有一些销售代理收取销售佣金。

We do.

我们做到了。

We really think of our agents as truly customer experience like the concierge for your brand and we want to make sure that our business model is aligned with our customer's business model.

我们确实将我们的代理商视为真正的客户体验，就像您品牌的礼宾部一样，我们希望确保我们的业务模式与客户的业务模式保持一致。

Bret Taylor: As you said, these agents need to be autonomous and the outcome has to be measurable.

布雷特·泰勒：正如您所说，这些代理需要具有自主性，并且结果必须是可衡量的。

That's not always possible, but I think it's broadly possible.

这并不总是可能的，但我认为这基本上是可能的。

And what's really neat about it is if you talk to any CFO or head of procurement with their big vendors, they look at the bill of materials and it's overwhelming and it's impossible to know if you're getting the value that you hoped from that contract.

真正巧妙的是，如果你与任何一家大型供应商的首席财务官或采购主管交谈，他们会查看材料清单，结果是令人难以承受的，而且不可能知道你是否从合同中获得了你希望的价值。

I think consumption based, which was popular particularly in the infrastructure space is closer to it.

我认为基于消费的方式（尤其是在基础设施领域很受欢迎）更接近它。

But I'm not sure a token is actually a good measure of value from AI either.

但我也不确定代币是否真的能很好地衡量人工智能的价值。

I always use the analogy, like right now, most of the coding agents are priced per token or per utilization, but there's this famous story of an Apple engineer who had a bad manager who's like had you report how many lines of code you wrote every day?

我总是使用这个类比，就像现在，大多数编码代理都是按代币或每次使用定价的，但有一个著名的故事，讲述的是一位苹果工程师，他有一个糟糕的经理，他就像让你报告你每天写了多少行代码？

Which every engineer in the world knows is an idiotic way to measure productivity.

世界上每个工程师都知道这是一种衡量生产力的愚蠢方法。

Bret Taylor: He famously went in with a report that had a negative number because I think he did a big refactoring, deleted a bunch and it was his way of saying like, fuck you to the man.

布雷特·泰勒：众所周知，他提交了一份带有负数的报告，因为我认为他进行了一次大规模的重构，删除了一些内容，这是他对那个人说“去你妈的”的方式。

I think tokens are similar.

我认为代币是相似的。

Yeah, you used a lot of tokens, like good for you, did it produce a pull request that was good?

是的，你使用了很多代币，就像对你有好处一样，它是否产生了一个好的拉取请求？

And I think that's the whole point of all this.

我认为这就是这一切的重点。

I think there's a huge difference between outcomes-based pricing and usage based pricing because especially in AI, they're not necessarily even correlated and you could have a long phone call and not solve the customer's problem and they give you a negative review online and call the call center again, all that effort was for nothing.

我认为基于结果的定价和基于使用的定价之间存在巨大差异，因为特别是在人工智能领域，它们甚至不一定相关，你可能打了很长时间的电话，但没有解决客户的问题，他们在网上给了你负面评论，然后再次致电呼叫中心，所有的努力都是徒劳的。

In fact, you might've added negative value.

事实上，您可能增加了负值。

And so, I am a huge believer in this.

因此，我对此深信不疑。

Bret Taylor: And what's fun about it is it really just aligns...

布雷特·泰勒：它的有趣之处在于它真的只是对齐......

I think every technology company aspires to be a partner, not a vendor.

我认为每家科技公司都渴望成为合作伙伴，而不是供应商。

And I think at Sierra, we are truly a partner to every single one of our customers because we're all aligned on what we want to achieve.

我认为在 Sierra，我们确实是每一位客户的合作伙伴，因为我们都在我们想要实现的目标上保持一致。

And I think that is really where the software industry should go.

我认为这确实是软件行业应该发展的方向。

It requires a lot of different shape of a company.

它需要很多不同形状的公司。

You have to be able to help your customers achieve those outcomes.

您必须能够帮助您的客户实现这些成果。

You can't just throw software at the wall because you'll never get paid if it doesn't.

你不能只是把软件扔到墙上，因为如果它不这样做，你将永远不会得到报酬。

Your orientation becomes so extremely customer-centric when you do this the right way.

当你以正确的方式做到这一点时，你的定位就会变得非常以客户为中心。

I think it's just a better version of the software industry.

我认为这只是软件行业的一个更好版本。

So I think it's right from first principles, it's right for procurement partners and I think it's right for the world.

所以我认为从首要原则来看这是正确的，这对采购合作伙伴来说是正确的，我认为这对世界来说是正确的。

Lenny Rachitsky: We've been chatting a little bit about productivity gains.

Lenny Rachitsky：我们一直在讨论生产力的提高。

There's a lot of skepticism in the headlines these days of just like what is AI actually doing?

如今，头条新闻中有很多质疑，比如人工智能到底在做什么？

Is it actually helping people be more productive?

它真的能帮助人们提高生产力吗？

There was a recent study actually, I don't know if you saw, where they showed engineers were less productive with AI because it was just putting them in different directions.

事实上，最近有一项研究，我不知道你是否看到了，研究表明工程师使用人工智能的效率较低，因为它只是将他们置于不同的方向。

They had to research all what's going wrong here?

他们必须研究这里到底出了什么问题？

So I think CX is a really good example where you clearly are seeing gains.

所以我认为 CX 是一个很好的例子，你可以清楚地看到收益。

Are you seeing actual gains at your company or any other company you work with outside of CX in terms of productivity that is like clearly yes, this is working and a huge deal?

您是否看到您的公司或您在 CX 之外合作的任何其他公司在生产力方面的实际收益，显然是的，这是有效的，而且是一件大事？

Bret Taylor: I'm extremely bullish on the productivity gains from AI, but I do think the tools and products right now are somewhat immature and it's quite counterintuitive.

Bret Taylor：我非常看好人工智能带来的生产力提升，但我确实认为现在的工具和产品还有些不成熟，而且非常违反直觉。

So, for example, almost every software engineering firm I know uses something like Cursor to help their software engineers.

例如，我知道的几乎每个软件工程公司都使用 Cursor 之类的东西来帮助他们的软件工程师。

Most people use Cursor right now as a coding autocomplete, though they have a lot of agentic solutions and there's a lot of...

大多数人现在使用 Cursor 作为编码自动完成功能，尽管他们有很多代理解决方案并且有很多......

OpenAI has Codex and Cloud has...

OpenAI 有 Codex，Cloud 有……

I can't remember the Anthropic products.

我不记得 Anthropic 产品了。

So there's lots of agentic agents coming as well.

所以也有很多特工来了。

One of the interesting things because the technology is immature, the code it produces often has problems.

有趣的事情之一是因为技术不成熟，它生成的代码经常有问题。

There's a lot of people approaching this to actually realize those productivity gains because as any engineer who's written a lot of code will tell you, it's pretty easy to look at and edit and fix code you wrote.

有很多人正在接近这一点，以真正实现这些生产力的提高，因为正如任何编写了大量代码的工程师都会告诉您的那样，查看、编辑和修复您编写的代码非常容易。

Bret Taylor: Reviewing other people's code or particularly finding a subtle logical error in someone else's code is actually really hard.

Bret Taylor：审查其他人的代码，或者特别是在其他人的代码中发现细微的逻辑错误实际上非常困难。

It's actually much harder than editing code that you wrote yourself.

这实际上比编辑自己编写的代码要困难得多。

So if the code produced by a coding agent is often incorrect, it actually can take a lot of cognitive load and time to fix it.

因此，如果编码代理生成的代码经常不正确，实际上可能需要大量的认知负荷和时间来修复它。

And in fact, if you end up producing lots of issues with your customers, you could end up producing a lot of features, but actually, is like mucking up the machine a little bit and having something that's not ideal.

事实上，如果你最终与客户产生了很多问题，你最终可能会产生很多功能，但实际上，这就像把机器搞砸了一点，并得到了一些不理想的东西。

There's a couple of techniques that I think are interesting.

我认为有一些有趣的技术。

First, I think there's a lot of AI starts now working on things like code reviews.

首先，我认为现在有很多人工智能开始致力于代码审查等工作。

I think this idea of self-reflection in agents is really important.

我认为代理人自我反思的想法非常重要。

Having AI supervise the AI is actually very effective.

让AI来监督AI其实是非常有效的。

Just think about it this way, if you produce an AI agent that's right 90% of the time, that's not that great, but how hard would it be to make another AI agent to find the errors the other 10% of the time?

试想一下，如果你生成一个 90% 的时间都正确的 AI 代理，那就不太好了，但是让另一个 AI 代理在另外 10% 的时间里发现错误有多难呢？

That might be a tractable problem.

这可能是一个容易处理的问题。

Bret Taylor: And if that thing's right 90% of the time, just for argument's sake, you can wire those things together and have something that's right 99% of the time.

Bret Taylor：如果那件事在 90% 的时间里是正确的，那么仅仅为了争论，你可以将这些东西连接在一起并得到在 99% 的时间里都是正确的东西。

So it's just a math problem and it turns out that you can make something to generate code, you can make something to review code and you're essentially using compute for cognitive capacity and you can layer on more layers of cognition and thinking and reasoning and produce things increasingly robust.

所以这只是一个数学问题，事实证明，你可以做一些东西来生成代码，你可以做一些东西来审查代码，你本质上是在使用计算来提高认知能力，你可以分层更多的认知、思维和推理层，并产生越来越强大的东西。

So I'm very excited about that.

所以我对此感到非常兴奋。

The other thing though is root cause analysis.

另一件事是根本原因分析。

So we have an engineer at Sierra who exclusively focuses on the model context protocol server serving our cursor instance.

因此，我们在 Sierra 有一位工程师，专门专注于为我们的光标实例提供服务的模型上下文协议服务器。

And our whole philosophy is, if cursor generated something incorrect, rather than just fixing it, try to root cause it.

我们的整个理念是，如果光标生成了不正确的内容，而不是仅仅修复它，而是尝试从根本上解决它。

Try to get it so the next time Cursor will produce the correct code and essentially, is context engineering.

尝试获取它，以便下次 Cursor 将生成正确的代码，本质上是上下文工程。

Bret Taylor: What context did Cursor not have that would've been necessary to produce the right outcome?

Bret Taylor：Cursor 没有什么上下文来产生正确的结果？

So I think people who are trying to get productivity gains in departments like software engineering need to stop waiting for the models to magically work if they want to see the gains now.

因此，我认为那些试图在软件工程等部门提高生产力的人如果想立即看到成果，就需要停止等待模型神奇地发挥作用。

And you really have to create root cause analysis and systems and say, how do we go root cause every bad line of code and actually give the right context and produce the right system so the models can do it today?

你真的必须创建根本原因分析和系统，并说，我们如何找出每行错误代码的根本原因，并真正提供正确的上下文并生成正确的系统，以便模型今天可以做到这一点？

Over time that'll probably be less necessary and you'll have less context engineering necessary to do it, but you really have to think of this as a system and I think people are waiting for the models to just magically get better.

随着时间的推移，这可能会变得不那么必要，并且完成它所需的上下文工程也会减少，但你确实必须将其视为一个系统，我认为人们正在等待模型神奇地变得更好。

And I'm like, well that will happen eventually, but if you want the gains now you got to put in the work.

我想，这最终会发生，但如果你现在想要收益，你就必须投入工作。

That's essentially why applied AI companies exist.

这就是应用人工智能公司存在的本质原因。

Bret Taylor: And the work is non-trivial, but you can do it.

布雷特·泰勒：这项工作并不简单，但你可以做到。

And so, for customers using platforms like Sierra, yeah, AI agents aren't perfect, but we're creating a system that lets customers create a virtuous cycle of improvement.

因此，对于使用 Sierra 等平台的客户来说，是的，人工智能代理并不完美，但我们正在创建一个系统，让客户创造一个良性的改进循环。

If you want to go from a 65% automated resolution rate to 75%, we have a billion tools to let AI help you do that, identify opportunities for improvement, figure out why people are frustrated, what new capabilities can we add to our agent to improve the resolution rate?

如果你想从 65% 的自动解决率提高到 75%，我们有十亿种工具可以让人工智能帮助你做到这一点，识别改进的机会，找出人们感到沮丧的原因，我们可以为我们的代理添加哪些新功能来提高解决率？

And you let AI put the needles at the top of the haystack on your behalf and I think that's really the way to optimize these systems.

你让人工智能代表你大海捞针，我认为这确实是优化这些系统的方法。

Lenny Rachitsky: I've never heard of this technique of improving Cursor by adding additional context.

Lenny Rachitsky：我从未听说过这种通过添加额外上下文来改进 Cursor 的技术。

What's the actual way of doing that?

这样做的实际方法是什么？

You build an MCP server that everything runs through or is it like you add Cursor rules?

您构建了一个所有内容都运行的 MCP 服务器，还是添加了 Cursor 规则？

What's the actual approach there?

那里的实际方法是什么？

Bret Taylor: I'm probably out of my depth here, but it's essentially MCP because that's how you provide context to Cursor.

Bret Taylor：我可能无法理解，但它本质上是 MCP，因为这就是向 Cursor 提供上下文的方式。

And I think that almost always when you have a model making a poor decision, if it's a good model, it's lack of context.

我认为，几乎总是当你的模型做出错误的决定时，即使它是一个好的模型，它也缺乏背景。

And so, you really want to find the intersection of your particular product and code base with the context available to these coding agents and systems and fix it at the root is the principle here.

因此，您确实希望找到特定产品和代码库与这些编码代理和系统可用的上下文的交集，并从根本上修复它，这是这里的原则。

Lenny Rachitsky: Got it.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：明白了。

That is very cool.

这非常酷。

I hadn't heard of people doing that, model context protocol, makes sense.

我没听说过有人这样做，模型上下文协议是有道理的。

We've talked about productivity gains outside TX.

我们已经讨论过德克萨斯州以外地区的生产力提高。

Just to give you a chance to share how amazing what you've built is, what are some of the gains you see from people using Sierra?

只是为了让您有机会分享您所构建的产品有多么令人惊叹，您从使用 Sierra 的人们那里看到了哪些收获？

Bret Taylor: Yeah, our customers see anywhere between 50 and 90% of their customer service interactions completely automated, which I think is really exciting.

Bret Taylor：是的，我们的客户看到 50% 到 90% 的客户服务交互完全自动化，我认为这真的很令人兴奋。

And we serve just a really, really broad range of customers.

我们为非常非常广泛的客户提供服务。

We serve the health insurance industry, the healthcare provider space, banks.

我们为健康保险行业、医疗保健提供商空间、银行提供服务。

You can actually refinance your home using an agent.

实际上，您可以通过代理人为您的房屋再融资。

One of our customers built on our platform to the telecommunications industry, DIRECTV, SiriusXM to a lot of retailers as well, which is really fun.

我们的一位客户在我们的平台上建立了电信行业、DIRECTV、SiriusXM 以及许多零售商的平台，这真的很有趣。

Everyone from Wayfair to clothing retailers like OluKai and Chubbies Shorts.

从 Wayfair 到 OluKai 和 Chubbies Shorts 等服装零售商。

What's really neat about it is it's a pretty diverse range of use cases and it's everything from helping you sign up for...

它的真正妙处在于它的用例范围相当广泛，从帮助您注册到……无所不包。

We have an agent that helps with customer support in one of the big dating applications to helping you upgrade or downgrade your SiriusXM plan.

我们有一位代理可以在大型约会应用程序之一中提供客户支持，帮助您升级或降级 SiriusXM 计划。

Actually, it's really funny, we do technical support from everything from home alarm systems to sonar speakers to more recently, CAT scan machines, which I think is amazing.

事实上，这真的很有趣，我们提供从家庭报警系统到声纳扬声器再到最近的 CAT 扫描机的各种技术支持，我认为这很棒。

Bret Taylor: So technicians going in and fixing the CAT scan machine can chat with an AI agent to help them guide them through that process.

Bret Taylor：因此，进入并修复 CAT 扫描机的技术人员可以与人工智能代理聊天，以帮助他们指导他们完成整个过程。

We're the leader in the space, we're trying to enable every company in the world to create their agent with their brand at the top that I think will become as meaningful of a digital touch point as their website or their mobile app.

我们是这个领域的领导者，我们正在努力让世界上的每一家公司都能创建他们的代理，并将他们的品牌放在首位，我认为这将成为像他们的网站或移动应用程序一样有意义的数字接触点。

In the short term, it can really transform the costs of running a customer service team.

从短期来看，它确实可以改变客户服务团队的运营成本。

And what's remarkable is do so with really high customer satisfaction scores.

值得注意的是，这样做的客户满意度得分非常高。

That Weight Watchers agent, I believe has a customer satisfaction score of 4.6 out of five, which is pretty amazing.

我相信慧俪轻体 (Weight Watchers) 代理商的客户满意度为 4.6 分（满分 5 分），这非常令人惊叹。

And what's interesting about service too, it's often people having a problem.

服务也很有趣，通常是人们遇到问题。

And so, when you have a clear, I don't know if you use them in the airport, I think that agent has a CSAT score of 4.7 out of five people are coming in with a problem and delighted.

因此，当你清楚地知道，我不知道你是否在机场使用它们时，我认为该代理的 CSAT 分数为 4.7，五分之一的人带着问题进来，并且很高兴。

And I think that's really the opportunity here.

我认为这确实是一个机会。

Bret Taylor: And our whole vision is that we're going to move towards a world where every single one of the interactions with your customers can be instant.

Bret Taylor：我们的整体愿景是，我们将迈向一个与客户的每一次互动都可以即时进行的世界。

It can be multilingual, it can be over audio, it can be over chat, it can be digital, it can be over the phone and it can be very personalized.

它可以是多语言的，可以通过音频，可以通过聊天，可以是数字的，可以通过电话，而且可以非常个性化。

And I think that's really, really exciting.

我认为这真的非常非常令人兴奋。

And if you think about all the best moments you've had with a brand, it's like that store associate who you know, and it's like for me, it's like the butcher at the grocery store.

如果你想想你在一个品牌中度过的所有美好时刻，它就像你认识的那个店员，对我来说，它就像杂货店的屠夫。

I love to cook, he knows me.

我喜欢做饭，他认识我。

We talk.

我们说话。

Can you actually produce that at scale for a company with 100 million customers and can you do it in a really personal way?

你能真正为一家拥有 1 亿客户的公司大规模生产这种产品吗？你能以真正个人化的方式做到这一点吗？

And I think we're really on the cusp of enabling that.

我认为我们确实正处于实现这一目标的边缘。

Lenny Rachitsky: Let me ask you one more question before we get to a very exciting lighting round.

Lenny Rachitsky：在我们开始一场非常激动人心的灯光回合之前，让我再问你一个问题。

There's a lot of founders struggling with go-to-market in AI with their AI apps.

许多创始人都在努力将他们的人工智能应用程序推向人工智能市场。

There's so many apps these days, so many products, so many things coming at buyers, at large B2B companies.

如今，大型 B2B 公司有如此多的应用程序、如此多的产品、如此多的东西向买家提供。

Clearly you guys have figured something out.

显然你们已经想到了什么。

I imagine your name helps, investors help, but what have you learned about just how to successfully do go-to-market with an AI product, say an agent-specific product that you think would be helpful for folks trying to do this better?

我想你的名字会有所帮助，投资者会有所帮助，但是你对如何成功地将人工智能产品推向市场有什么了解，比如你认为对那些试图做得更好的人有帮助的特定代理产品？

Bret Taylor: I think there's a small handful of go-to-market models that have been proven to work, and I think it's important to choose the right one for the product category you're going after.

Bret Taylor：我认为有一小部分上市模式已被证明有效，而且我认为为您想要的产品类别选择正确的模式非常重要。

One category I would say is developer-led.

我想说的一类是开发人员主导的。

This is somewhere famously Stripe and Twilio where probably two of the original that did this exceptionally.

这是著名的 Stripe 和 Twilio 的地方，其中可能有两个原始人做得非常出色。

And essentially, the go-to-market motion there is to appeal to an individual engineer often within the department of the CTO who have accountability and a fair amount of latitude to choose a solution.

从本质上讲，进入市场的动议是为了吸引 CTO 部门内的个别工程师，他们有责任和相当大的自由度来选择解决方案。

This works if your product is a platform product.

如果您的产品是平台产品，则此方法有效。

It doesn't work, for example, if your product is trying to help a line of business because lines of business typically don't have dedicated engineering teams or let alone, the latitude to just go download a new library or start using a web service like that.

例如，如果您的产品试图帮助某个业务线，那么它就不起作用，因为该业务线通常没有专门的工程团队，更不用说下载新库或开始使用此类 Web 服务的自由度了。

It particularly works well if you sell to startups just because startups tend to have engineering teams with quite a bit of latitude to choose services to help them solve the problem given by the founder.

如果你把产品卖给初创公司，那么它的效果尤其好，因为初创公司往往拥有相当自由的工程团队，可以选择服务来帮助他们解决创始人提出的问题。

Bret Taylor: Then there's product-led growth.

布雷特·泰勒：然后是产品主导的增长。

It's a broad term, obviously every company's product matters, but product-led growth more specifically means users can sign up from the website, often get put on a trial.

这是一个广义的术语，显然每个公司的产品都很重要，但更具体地说，产品主导的增长意味着用户可以从网站注册，通常会进行试用。

Often you can buy a couple of seats with a credit card and those work where your user and your buyer are the same person.

通常，您可以使用信用卡购买几个席位，并且这些席位在您的用户和买家是同一个人的情况下工作。

So it works for small business software almost always because sole proprietors do everything.

因此它几乎总是适用于小型企业软件，因为一切都是独资经营者做的。

And so you're selling small business software like Shopify in the early days and there's a lot of other products like that where you're trying to sell to small merchants.

因此，您在早期销售 Shopify 等小型企业软件，并且您还尝试向小型商家销售许多其他类似的产品。

That's great.

那太棒了。

It doesn't work well when your buyer and the user of the software are different.

当您的购买者和软件的用户不同时，它就不能很好地工作。

So I'll use the example of something like expense reporting software.

因此，我将使用费用报告软件之类的示例。

The user of that software is an individual employee, but the buyer is often a finance department.

该软件的用户是个人员工，但买家通常是财务部门。

And so having sign up and buy with your credit card doesn't make sense because the person using is not the person with the credit card and it just doesn't work.

因此，使用信用卡注册和购买是没有意义的，因为使用的人不是拥有信用卡的人，而且它不起作用。

Bret Taylor: And then there's direct sales.

布雷特·泰勒：然后是直销。

And direct sales had gone, I don't want to say out of fashion, but if I think of the best direct sales companies, probably there's a lot of lineage from Oracle, but you think SAP, Oracle, ServiceNow, Salesforce, Adobe perhaps, and there's others as well.

我不想说直销已经过时了，但如果我想到最好的直销公司，可能有很多来自甲骨文的血统，但你可能会想到 SAP、甲骨文、ServiceNow、Salesforce、Adobe，还有其他公司。

And these were companies that sold into large lines of business in a relatively traditional sales motion.

这些公司以相对传统的销售方式向大型业务部门出售产品。

I think because product-led growth became very popular.

我认为是因为产品主导型增长变得非常流行。

I think a lot companies use that, which is great, that motion produces great products, but if PLG means that you aren't actually engaging with the buyer of your software, you're not going to grow.

我认为很多公司都使用这一点，这很好，这种运动可以产生出色的产品，但如果 PLG 意味着您实际上没有与软件的买家互动，那么您就不会成长。

And so, I've actually seen more recently, with a lot of AI companies, direct sales come a little bit more back into fashion because I think so many of the opportunities in AI actually meet that qualification where the buyer and the user are not necessarily the same person and it really requires that go-to-market motion.

所以，我最近实际上看到，在很多人工智能公司中，直销又重新流行起来，因为我认为人工智能领域的很多机会实际上都符合这样的条件，即买家和用户不一定是同一个人，而且它确实需要进入市场的行动。

Bret Taylor: Where I see entrepreneurs stumble is they'll choose a go-to-market motion without thinking through what is the process of purchasing this software?

布雷特·泰勒：我看到企业家遇到的问题是，他们会选择进入市场的动议，而不考虑购买该软件的流程是什么？

What is the process of evaluating the value of this software?

评估这个软件的价值的过程是怎样的？

And I think people just need to be much more first principles about it and much more thoughtful about it.

我认为人们只需要对此有更多的首要原则和更多的思考。

And candidly, I think a lot of companies should leverage direct sales more than they do.

坦率地说，我认为很多公司应该更多地利用直销。

And even though because of the sometimes justified reputation of the quality of products of some of these direct sales companies, it had gotten a bad name.

尽管由于某些直销公司有时在产品质量方面享有盛誉，它的名声也不好。

And I think I'm thankful to see it coming back in a lot of the AI market.

我想我很庆幸看到它在很多人工智能市场中回归。

Lenny Rachitsky: I feel like this message is something a lot of founders need to hear, especially founders that aren't from a business background that sales turns them off, they don't think they're going to be great at sales.

Lenny Rachitsky：我觉得这个信息是很多创始人都需要听到的，尤其是那些没有商业背景的创始人，销售让他们感到厌烦，他们认为自己不会擅长销售。

Just this push of this might be what you have to get really good at and this is how you win and you can't just rely on product like growth.

正是这种推动可能就是你必须真正擅长的，这就是你获胜的方式，你不能仅仅依靠产品之类的增长。

Lenny Rachitsky: Bret, is there anything else that you wanted to share?

Lenny Rachitsky：Bret，你还有什么想分享的吗？

Any last nugget of wisdom?

最后还有什么智慧吗？

Anything you want to double click on before we get to our very exciting lightning round?

在我们开始激动人心的闪电回合之前，您想双击什么吗？

Lenny Rachitsky: Okay, let's do it.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：好的，我们开始吧。

Here we go.

开始了。

Welcome to our very exciting lightning round.

欢迎来到我们非常激动人心的闪电回合。

I've got five questions for you.

我有五个问题要问你。

Are you ready?

你准备好了吗？

Lenny Rachitsky: What are two or three books that you find yourself recommending most to other people?

Lenny Rachitsky：您最常向其他人推荐的两三本书是什么？

Bret Taylor: I don't read a lot of nonfiction, but probably if I had to pick one in the area of the topics we talked about, Competing Against Luck, which was the book that produced Jobs to be Done, which is a framework I really believe in.

布雷特·泰勒：我读的非小说类书籍不多，但如果我必须在我们讨论的主题领域中选一本的话，可能是《与运气竞争》，这本书产生了《待完成的工作》，这是我真正相信的一个框架。

My only critique is I think most of these business books should be like an article.

我唯一的批评是我认为大多数商业书籍应该像一篇文章。

So maybe buy the book and punch it into ChatGPT and get the summary.

因此，也许可以购买这本书并将其打入 ChatGPT 并获取摘要。

But buy the book it's Clayton Christensen talked about it, but it's a really good framework for thinking about delivering value with your products.

但是请购买克莱顿·克里斯滕森 (Clayton Christensen) 谈到的这本书，它是思考如何通过产品提供价值的非常好的框架。

And I think it definitely influenced me.

我认为这确实影响了我。

Bret Taylor: Actually one book I do recommend is Endurance, which is the story of Shackleton's trip to go to the South Pole.

布雷特·泰勒：实际上我推荐的一本书是《耐力》，这是沙克尔顿南极之旅的故事。

Half the book is him starving to death and eating seal meat with his crew of people frozen in their boat.

书的一半是他饿死了，和他的船员被冻在船上吃海豹肉。

I've never seen a better story of grit in my entire life.

我一生中从未见过比这更好的关于毅力的故事。

It's remarkable that it's a true story and if you're an entrepreneur going through a hard time, read that, you'd be like, okay, it could be worse.

值得注意的是，这是一个真实的故事，如果你是一位正在经历困难时期的企业家，读到它，你会想，好吧，情况可能会更糟。

It's a great book too.

这也是一本很棒的书。

It's just remarkable that it's a true story.

值得注意的是，这是一个真实的故事。

Lenny Rachitsky: And one thing he did a great job at is setting expectations for folks that joined that famous newspaper-

Lenny Rachitsky：他做得很好的一件事是为那些加入那家著名报纸的人们设定期望——

Bret Taylor: That ad.

布雷特·泰勒：那个广告。

That newspaper ad.

那个报纸广告。

I don't know if that's true.

我不知道这是不是真的。

It's remarkable if that's true.

如果这是真的，那就太了不起了。

Bret Taylor: I don't know.

布雷特·泰勒：我不知道。

The internet.

互联网。

Who knows?

谁知道？

Lenny Rachitsky: Goddam.

莱尼·拉契茨基：天哪。

Deep fakes even back then.

即使在当时也是深假。

Okay.

好的。

Do you have a favorite recent movie or TV show that you've really enjoyed?

您最近有最喜欢的电影或电视节目吗？

Bret Taylor: I haven't gone to any new TV shows recently?

布雷特·泰勒：我最近没有看任何新的电视节目吗？

We just watched Inception with the kids and they loved it and made me appreciate Christopher Nolan and what a cool movie.

我们刚刚和孩子们一起看了《盗梦空间》，他们很喜欢它，让我欣赏克里斯托弗·诺兰和一部多么酷的电影。

It's the type of movie when you watch the film and you can a conversations for two days afterwards about it.

这是一种电影，当你看完电影后，你可以在两天后谈论它。

So, just a great film.

所以，这只是一部很棒的电影。

Lenny Rachitsky: I saw someone using I think VO 3 to create their own Inception videos where the worlds wrapping in on each other.

Lenny Rachitsky：我看到有人使用我认为 VO 3 来制作他们自己的《盗梦空间》视频，其中的世界相互缠绕。

Oh, man.

哦，伙计。

Okay.

好的。

Do you have a favorite product that you have recently discovered that you love or one you've loved for a long time?

您是否有一件您最近发现的最喜欢的产品，或者您已经喜欢了很长时间的产品？

Bret Taylor: I'm really a big fan of Cursor.

Bret Taylor：我真的是 Cursor 的忠实粉丝。

I think it's changed.

我认为它已经改变了。

I love creating software and I'm excited though for agents.

我喜欢创建软件，但我对代理感到兴奋。

I've been really excited.

我真的很兴奋。

I was very excited to see Codex from OpenAI and others.

我很高兴看到 OpenAI 和其他公司的 Codex。

So I think Cursor will be in its current form, is a transition product.

所以我认为Cursor将会是现在的形式，是一个过渡产品。

And I know they're working on agents as well, but I really enjoyed taking something I love and it's been my life's passion and really diving into this AI tool and seeing how it transforms how I create software.

我知道他们也在开发代理，但我真的很喜欢接受我喜欢的东西，这是我一生的热情，并真正深入研究这个人工智能工具，看看它如何改变我创建软件的方式。

So I've just been spending a lot of time with the product just because it's so core to what I love to do and it's a really well crafted product.

所以我花了很多时间在这个产品上，因为它是我喜欢做的事情的核心，而且它是一个制作精良的产品。

Lenny Rachitsky: I think that's the first time someone's actually mentioned Cursor in this answer, so might be the beginning of a trend.

Lenny Rachitsky：我认为这是第一次有人在这个答案中真正提到 Cursor，所以可能是一种趋势的开始。

Michael Trell was on the podcast and he actually had a very similar message as you had at the beginning of this chat about the future of code, what comes after code and this concept that there's going to be this additional pseudo code layer on top of code.

Michael Trell 在播客中，他实际上传达了与您在本次聊天开始时非常相似的信息，内容涉及代码的未来、代码之后会发生什么以及代码之上将有一个额外的伪代码层的概念。

Very aligned with your thinking.

非常符合你的想法。

Do you have a favorite life motto that you often come back to and find useful in work or in life?

您是否有一条最喜欢的人生格言，并且经常回顾并发现它在工作或生活中很有用？

Bret Taylor: The best way to predict the future is to invent it, which I think I attribute to Alan Kay of Xerox PARC.

布雷特·泰勒：预测未来的最好方法就是发明它，我认为这归功于施乐帕洛阿尔托研究中心的艾伦·凯。

He invented a lot of the core abstractions that we use in computing today.

他发明了我们今天在计算中使用的许多核心抽象。

I'm an entrepreneur, it's why I love to build things and it's definitely a life motto for me.

我是一名企业家，这就是我喜欢建造东西的原因，这绝对是我的人生座右铭。

Lenny Rachitsky: I feel like many people say this, I feel like you've actually done this so many times.

Lenny Rachitsky：我觉得很多人都这么说，我觉得你实际上已经这样做过很多次了。

You're really living this motto.

你确实践行了这句座右铭。

Final question.

最后一个问题。

We talked about you inventing the like button at FriendFeed.

我们讨论过您在 FriendFeed 上发明了“赞”按钮。

Were there other thoughts of what they would call it other than like?

除了“喜欢”之外，他们还有其他想法吗？

Was it just obviously like?

是不是明明就很像？

Or was there other thinking there?

还是还有其他想法？

Bret Taylor: This was before emoji.

布雷特·泰勒：这是在表情符号出现之前。

So, if you read the comments on FriendFeed posts, at least 70% of them are cool or wow or yeah or neat.

因此，如果您阅读 FriendFeed 帖子上的评论，至少 70% 的评论是很酷、哇、是的或简洁的。

And one of the principle uses of FriendFeed was to have discussions about things.

FriendFeed 的主要用途之一是对事物进行讨论。

So you'd have a post and then a pretty fulsome discussion underneath.

所以你会先发一篇文章，然后在下面进行相当丰富的讨论。

And compared to Twitter and others, it was a great place to have those discussions.

与 Twitter 和其他人相比，这是进行这些讨论的好地方。

And so, the product problem we were trying to solve is get all the one word answers out so that the discussion was actually actual comments as opposed to acknowledgements that you read the thing.

因此，我们试图解决的产品问题是得到所有的单词答案，以便讨​​论实际上是实际的评论，而不是对您阅读该内容的致谢。

Bret Taylor: So, the original framing was one click comment.

布雷特·泰勒：所以，最初的框架是一键评论。

That was how we thought about it.

我们就是这么想的。

And so, the first version that I made had a heart, and she denies remembering this, but Anna Yang, now Anna Muller who has worked at the company, she hated it.

所以，我制作的第一个版本是有心的，她否认记得这一点，但安娜·杨，现在在公司工作的安娜·穆勒，她讨厌它。

She said, "If I look at hearts on every post, I'm going to vomit.

她说：“如果我看到每条帖子上的红心，我就会呕吐。

It's too much." And it also was interesting, we were simulating, it was like an article about a tragedy or something.

太多了。”这也很有趣，我们正在模拟，就像一篇关于悲剧之类的文章。

A heart was just not the right thing.

一颗心并不是正确的东西。

Like which actually turned out to be really hard to translate was just a much more neutral sentiment, and that's why it was hard to translate because it was subtle.

就像实际上很难翻译的那样，只是一种更加中性的情绪，这就是为什么它很难翻译，因为它很微妙。

So that's how we ended up with this.

这就是我们最终的结果。

Bret Taylor: We started with a heart, and I don't know if we ever heard the word love, but we definitely started off with the iconography and then like, which just felt like this positive yet as neutral as possible within the realm of positive so that it could work for a more complex story.

布雷特·泰勒：我们从一颗心开始，我不知道我们是否听说过“爱”这个词，但我们肯定是从图像开始的，然后是喜欢，这感觉就像是积极的，但在积极的领域内尽可能中立，这样它就可以用于一个更复杂的故事。

But it was all because we needed a one-click comment.

但这都是因为我们需要一键评论。

That's where the concept came from.

这就是这个概念的由来。

Lenny Rachitsky: Wow.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：哇。

I've never heard the story before.

我以前从未听过这个故事。

It makes me think about LinkedIn now.

这让我现在想起 LinkedIn。

They're basically trying to solve that same problem.

他们基本上是在试图解决同样的问题。

They have all these auto-reply pill tag things.

他们有所有这些自动回复药丸标签的东西。

I don't think people like those very much.

我认为人们不太喜欢这些。

Bret Taylor: Yeah.

布雷特·泰勒：是的。

They have a lot of features.

他们有很多特点。

Lenny Rachitsky: So many AI features.

Lenny Rachitsky：人工智能功能太多了。

Bret, this was incredible.

布雷特，这太不可思议了。

This was an honor.

这是一种荣幸。

I so appreciate you coming on this podcast.

我非常感谢你来到这个播客。

Two final questions, where can folks find you online if they want to reach out, maybe go see if they want to work at Sierra and how can listeners be useful to you?

最后两个问题，如果人们想联系您，可以在哪里找到您，也许可以去看看他们是否想在 Sierra 工作，以及听众如何对您有用？

Bret Taylor: If you want an AI agent to help with customer service, go to sierra.ai.

Bret Taylor：如果您需要人工智能代理来帮助提供客户服务，请访问 sierra.ai。

If you want to apply here, sierra.ai/careers where we have offices in San Francisco and New York, Atlanta and London and are hiring pretty aggressively in every department.

如果您想在这里申请，请访问 sierra.ai/careers，我们在旧金山、纽约、亚特兰大和伦敦设有办事处，并且每个部门都在积极招聘。

So please reach out if you're interested.

因此，如果您有兴趣，请联系我们。

Lenny Rachitsky: And how can listeners be useful to you?

Lenny Rachitsky：听众如何对你有用？

Is it tryout Sierra, anything else there?

是试用Sierra，还有其他吗？

Bret Taylor: Yeah, tryout Sierra.

布雷特·泰勒：是的，试试塞拉。

I'm a single issue voter.

我是单一问题选民。

Lenny Rachitsky: Bret, thank you so much for being here.

Lenny Rachitsky：布雷特，非常感谢你来到这里。

Bye, everyone.: Thank you so much for listening.

再见，大家：非常感谢您的聆听。

If you found this valuable, you can subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app.

如果您发现这很有价值，您可以在 Apple Podcasts、Spotify 或您最喜欢的播客应用程序上订阅该节目。

Also, please consider giving us a rating or leaving a review as that really helps other listeners find the podcast.

另外，请考虑给我们评分或留下评论，因为这确实有助于其他听众找到播客。

You can find all past episodes or learn more about the show at Lennyspodcast.com.

您可以在 Lennyspodcast.com 上找到所有过去的剧集或了解有关该节目的更多信息。

See you in the next episode.

下一集见。