This will make you a better decision maker | Annie Duke (Thinking In Bets, former pro poker player)

Annie Duke: It's so incredibly necessary in improving decision quality to take what's implicit and make it explicit.

Annie Duke：为了提高决策质量，将隐含的内容变得明确是非常必要的。

It's not that intuition is crap, your intuition is sometimes right.

并不是说直觉是垃圾，你的直觉有时是对的。

If you don't make it explicit, then you don't get to find out when it's wrong.

如果你不明确地表达出来，那么你就无法发现它何时是错误的。

Lenny Rachitsky: When you look at companies that have read your book, what do you find are the brainwashing tactics that really stick?

Lenny Rachitsky：当你观察读过你的书的公司时，你发现哪些洗脑策略真正有效？

Annie Duke: People generally think the purpose of a meeting is for three things, discover, discuss, decide.

Annie Duke：人们普遍认为会议的目的是为了三件事：发现、讨论、决定。

The only thing that's ever supposed to happen in a meeting is the discussion part.

会议中唯一应该发生的事情就是讨论部分。

Lenny Rachitsky: Something that comes up in product a lot is this idea of pre-mortems.

Lenny Rachitsky：产品中经常出现的就是事前剖析的想法。

Annie Duke: So a pre-mortem, it's great only if you set up kill criteria.

安妮·杜克：所以，事前剖析，只有设置杀戮标准才好。

Commit to actions that you're going to take if you see those signals.

承诺在看到这些信号时将采取的行动。

Lenny Rachitsky: You have a very interesting framework for how to think about decision quality when the outcome is very long-term.

Lenny Rachitsky：您有一个非常有趣的框架，用于在结果非常长期时如何考虑决策质量。

Annie Duke: There is no such thing as a long feedback loop.

Annie Duke：不存在长反馈循环这样的事情。

And the way you choose to shorten the feedback loop is to say, what are the things that are correlated with the outcome that I eventually desire?

你选择缩短反馈循环的方式是说，哪些事情与我最终想要的结果相关？

Lenny Rachitsky: Today, my guest is Annie Duke.

兰尼·拉奇茨基：今天，我的客人是安妮·杜克。

Annie is the author of the bestselling book Thinking in Bets, and also her more recent book Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away.

安妮是畅销书《赌注中的思考》的作者，也是她最近出版的书《退出：知道何时走开的力量》的作者。

She's also a special partner at First Round Capital, which we spent some time on and is incredibly fascinating.

她也是 First Round Capital 的特别合伙人，我们在这家公司花了一些时间，而且非常令人着迷。

Prior to this part of her career, she was a professional poker player.

在她职业生涯的这一部分之前，她是一名职业扑克玩家。

She's won over $4 million in tournaments, including winning a World Series of Poker Bracelet, and she's the only woman who's won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the National Poker Heads-Up Championship.

她在锦标赛中赢得了超过 400 万美元的奖金，其中包括赢得世界扑克系列赛手链，并且她是唯一一位赢得世界扑克系列赛冠军和全国扑克单挑锦标赛的女性。

Currently, she spends her time helping companies make better decisions.

目前，她花时间帮助公司做出更好的决策。

In our conversation, we cover the many lessons that she's learned from her friend Daniel Kahneman, who recently passed away.

在我们的谈话中，我们讲述了她从最近去世的朋友丹尼尔·卡尼曼那里学到的许多教训。

What simple change she's found has the most impact in a company's ability to make better decisions, how to make better quick decisions when the feedback loop is very long, and also why she doesn't actually believe in long feedback loops, how she changed the way that the partners at First Round Capital make decisions, which is incredibly interesting.

她发现的简单改变对公司做出更好决策的能力影响最大，当反馈循环很长时如何做出更好的快速决策，以及为什么她实际上不相信长反馈循环，她如何改变了 First Round Capital 合伙人的决策方式，这非常有趣。

Lenny Rachitsky: Plus, why when you're thinking about quitting, that probably means you've already waited too long and you should have quit a while ago.

Lenny Rachitsky：另外，为什么当你考虑退出时，这可能意味着你已经等待太久了，你应该早就退出了。

I learned a ton from this conversation and this is definitely going to change the way I think about a lot of things.

我从这次谈话中学到了很多东西，这肯定会改变我思考很多事情的方式。

With that, I bring you Annie Duke after a short word from our sponsors.

在我们的赞助商简短发言后，我为您带来了安妮·杜克 (Annie Duke)。

And if you enjoy this podcast, don't forget to subscribe and follow it in your favorite podcasting app or YouTube.

如果您喜欢这个播客，请不要忘记订阅并在您最喜欢的播客应用程序或 YouTube 中关注它。

It's the best way to avoid missing future episodes and it helps the podcast tremendously.

这是避免错过未来剧集的最佳方式，并且对播客有很大帮助。

This episode is brought to you by Vanta.

本集由 Vanta 为您带来。

When it comes to ensuring your company has top-notch security practices, things get complicated fast.

当谈到确保您的公司拥有一流的安全实践时，事情很快就会变得复杂。

Lenny Rachitsky: Now you can assess risk, secure the trust of your customers, and automate compliance for SOC 2, ISO 27001, HIPAA and more with a single platform, Vanta.

Lenny Rachitsky：现在您可以使用单一平台 Vanta 评估风险、确保客户信任并自动实现 SOC 2、ISO 27001、HIPAA 等合规性。

Vanta's market-leading trust management platform helps you continuously monitor compliance alongside reporting and tracking risk.

Vanta 市场领先的信任管理平台可帮助您持续监控合规性以及报告和跟踪风险。

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此外，您还可以通过 Vanta AI 完成安全调查问卷来节省时间。

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加入数千家使用 Vanta 自动化证据收集、统一风险管理和简化安全审查的全球公司行列。

Get $1,000 off Vanta when you go to vanta.com/lenny.

访问vanta.com/lenny，可享受 Vanta 立减 1,000 美元的优惠。

That's vanta.com/lenny.

这是vanta.com/lenny。

Lenny Rachitsky: This episode is brought to you by UserTesting.

Lenny Rachitsky：本集由 UserTesting 为您带来。

Get fast feedback from real people throughout the development process so that you can build the right thing the first time.

在整个开发过程中获得真实人员的快速反馈，以便您可以第一次构建正确的产品。

Companies are being asked to do more with less.

公司被要求用更少的资源做更多的事情。

They need to move more quickly while building experiences that meet changing customer expectations, all while minimizing risk and costly rework.

他们需要更快地采取行动，同时构建满足不断变化的客户期望的体验，同时最大限度地减少风险和昂贵的返工。

With UserTesting, you have a trusted partner who provides user research teams with the skills, tools, and data to be able to articulate the value of user research to the business so that you can make an impact and build the best experiences with confidence.

通过 UserTesting，您拥有了一个值得信赖的合作伙伴，他为用户研究团队提供技能、工具和数据，以便能够向企业阐明用户研究的价值，以便您能够产生影响并充满信心地构建最佳体验。

Get started today at usertesting.com/lenny.

今天就开始访问 usertesting.com/lenny。

Annie, thank you so much for being here and welcome to the podcast.

安妮，非常感谢您来到这里，欢迎来到播客。

Annie Duke: Thank you so much for having me.

安妮·杜克：非常感谢你邀请我。

Lenny Rachitsky: It's my pleasure.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：这是我的荣幸。

I was telling a bunch of people that you were coming on this podcast and every single one of them was so excited that we were doing this, so I'm quite excited that this is happening.

我告诉一群人你要来参加这个播客，他们每个人都对我们这样做感到非常兴奋，所以我对这件事的发生感到非常兴奋。

I want to start with a question about Daniel Kahneman.

我想先问一个关于丹尼尔·卡尼曼的问题。

I know you two were very close.

我知道你们两个非常亲密。

You did a podcast together.

你们一起做了一个播客。

I know you grew to be good friends over the past few years.

我知道你们在过去的几年里成为了好朋友。

Sadly, he passed away about a week ago at this point.

不幸的是，他大约一周前此时去世了。

Lenny Rachitsky: I'm curious, what are some lasting lessons that you took away from your time with him?

Lenny Rachitsky：我很好奇，你从和他在一起的时光中学到了哪些持久的教训？

Maybe one or two things that stick with you and you think will stick with you?

也许一两件事让你印象深刻，并且你认为也会让你印象深刻？

Annie Duke: It's hard for me to describe properly how humble this man was, and it seems so impossible because his influence was so huge and his intellect was so huge and his insight was so change-making in the areas that he worked.

安妮·杜克：我很难正确地描述这个人有多么谦虚，而且这似乎是不可能的，因为他的影响力如此巨大，他的才智如此巨大，他的洞察力在他工作的领域带来了如此巨大的变革。

But he was so humble, he really wanted to hear what you thought.

但他很谦虚，他很想听听你的想法。

He said, "I don't know a lot", he would change his mind.

他说，“我知道的不多”，他会改变主意。

It's funny, I got asked in a class that I was teaching about thinking fast and slow and someone was talking about how there's a lot of studies in there that didn't end up replicating.

有趣的是，我在课堂上被问到我正在教快速和慢速思考，有人在谈论其中有很多研究最终没有被复制。

Annie Duke: And what I've seen from a lot of other people in the field who really where their work is defined by some line of work that didn't replicate, where they're really arguing against the fact that it doesn't replicate.

安妮·杜克（Annie Duke）：我从该领域的许多其他人那里看到，他们的工作实际上是由某些无法复制的工作来定义的，他们真的反对它无法复制的事实。

Just trying to justify or say, "But no", or this and that.

只是试图证明或说“但是不”，或者这个那个。

This real lack of open-mindedness to the idea that you know what?

这种真正缺乏开放思想的想法你知道吗？

Maybe it turns out not to be true and that should be okay.

也许事实证明这不是真的，但这应该没问题。

But the thing about Danny was when you talked about it, he was the first one to tell you, "I wish priming wasn't in the book.

但关于丹尼的事情是，当你谈论它时，他是第一个告诉你的人，“我希望书中没有启动效应。

It doesn't replicate." He was just so open-minded to the idea that he knows what he knows now, but he knows that he doesn't know everything.

它无法复制。”他对自己现在知道的事情持开放态度，但他知道自己并不知道一切。

Annie Duke: Another thing that people don't know about him outside of academics I think are that he was one of the pioneers in something called an adversarial collaboration.

安妮·杜克：我认为学术界之外人们不了解他的另一件事是，他是对抗性合作的先驱之一。

So one of his favorite things, and he in some ways invented it, was find someone who really disagrees with you and then write a paper with them and try to figure out with them what's the study that would resolve the issue.

因此，他最喜欢的事情之一，在某种程度上是他发明的，就是找到一个真正不同意你观点的人，然后与他们一起写一篇论文，并尝试与他们一起找出可以解决问题的研究。

So an example of that was Danny did work on happiness as it relates to wealth.

一个例子是丹尼致力于研究与财富相关的幸福感。

Kahneman and a collaborator, Angus Deaton, they published a result that got a lot of press about the relationship between money and happiness, and the idea was money doesn't buy happiness beyond $75,000.

卡尼曼和他的合作者安格斯·迪顿（Angus Deaton）发表了一项关于金钱与幸福之间关系的研究结果，该结果引起了很多媒体的关注，其想法是金钱买不到超过 75,000 美元的幸福。

So that got published in 2010.

所以它于 2010 年出版。

I'm sure if you ran that exact same study, it would be more than $75,000 now because it would adjust for inflation.

我确信，如果您进行完全相同的研究，现在的金额将超过 75,000 美元，因为它会根据通货膨胀进行调整。

But it was like the idea being once your basic needs are met and you're not that worried about paying rent and so on and so forth, it's not going to have that big of an effect.

但这就像这样的想法：一旦你的基本需求得到满足，并且你不那么担心支付租金等等，它就不会产生那么大的影响。

Annie Duke: But then a decade later, Matthew Killingsworth said, "That's not true that actually money and happiness are correlated through all the income levels.

安妮·杜克：但十年后，马修·基林斯沃思说：“事实上，金钱和幸福在所有收入水平上都是相关的，这是不正确的。

The more money you have, the more happy you tend to be." Okay, so this is a classic example where people will tear each other down sometimes and that guy's wrong and whatever.

你拥有的钱越多，你就会越快乐。”好吧，这是一个典型的例子，人们有时会互相拆台，而那个人错了等等。

And instead, it was Kahneman's like, "All right, let's do it together." And they joined forces along with Barb Mellers to basically try to resolve that issue.

相反，卡尼曼说，“好吧，让我们一起做吧。”他们与巴布·梅勒斯联手基本上试图解决这个问题。

He was just always seeking out, it was just like everything was like, why am I wrong?

他只是一直在寻找，就好像一切都是这样，为什么我错了？

And he was eager and he was excited and he wanted to...

他很渴望，他很兴奋，他想要……

Annie Duke: I remember having a lunch with him where I realized after the lunch that the whole lunch was him asking me questions about my work.

安妮·杜克：我记得和他共进午餐，午餐后我意识到整个午餐都是他在问我有关我工作的问题。

Why is he asking me questions about my work?

他为什么要问我有关工作的问题？

Right?

正确的？

He's Danny Kahneman.

他是丹尼·卡尼曼。

But he was just so curious about other people and he just made time for everybody.

但他对其他人非常好奇，他只是为每个人腾出时间。

He just loved the people around him so much.

他只是非常爱他周围的人。

And I think that in the end, it's hard to believe, but I just think that that dwarfs his body of work, which is spectacular.

我认为最终，这很难相信，但我只是认为这让他的作品相形见绌，而他的作品非常壮观。

But he as a human being was just so spectacular.

但作为一个人，他实在是太了不起了。

And I do think you hear all the time about people who are so incredibly brilliant.

我确实认为你总是听说过那些非常聪明的人。

It's the brilliant but asshole thing, and it was just so the opposite with him.

这是一个聪明但混蛋的事情，而他的情况恰恰相反。

He was so kind.

他是那么的善良。

Lenny Rachitsky: That's amazing.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：太棒了。

And it feels like there's probably a strong correlation between people that are curious, always looking for how they're wrong, and finding time to spend it with people to debate and discuss and ask.

感觉好奇的人之间可能存在很强的相关性，总是寻找自己的错误所在，并抽出时间与人们一起辩论、讨论和提问。

Feels like there's going to be a strong correlation with that and finding really interesting insights uncovering new things.

感觉与此有很强的相关性，并找到真正有趣的见解来发现新事物。

Lenny Rachitsky: Well, thank you.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：好的，谢谢。

Thank you for sharing all that.

感谢您分享这一切。

I wish I had known him.

我希望我认识他。

Let's talk about decision-making.

我们来谈谈决策。

So there's two areas I want to spend time on.

所以我想在两个领域花时间。

As one would not be surprised, decision-making and quitting.

人们不会感到惊讶，决策和退出。

And I know that you've been on a lot of podcasts.

我知道你参加过很多播客。

I imagine many listeners have read your book or have heard a lot about the stuff that you teach.

我想很多听众都读过您的书或者听说过很多关于您所教授的内容。

I'm going to try to come at this from a bunch of different directions and do it a little differently.

我将尝试从多个不同的方向来解决这个问题，并采取一些不同的方式。

First of all, I know you're a parent.

首先，我知道你是一名家长。

As last I heard, you have four kids.

我上次听说，你有四个孩子。

I just had a kid, he's almost 10 months now.

我刚刚有了一个孩子，现在快10个月了。

Lenny Rachitsky: Thank you.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：谢谢。

I'm curious, what your frameworks you find most helpful in parenting and in raising your kids that have stuck with you there?

我很好奇，您认为在养育子女和抚养孩子方面最有帮助的框架是什么？

Annie Duke: Well, let me just first off say I get a lot of people who are pregnant who come and ask me for my advice about parenting.

安妮·杜克：嗯，首先我要说的是，有很多怀孕的人来向我询问有关育儿的建议。

And I'll tell you the two pieces of advice I give people.

我会告诉你我给人们的两条建议。

The first is this, there's all sorts of parenting books, there's all sorts of styles.

第一个是这个，有各种各样的育儿书籍，有各种各样的风格。

A book needs to sell, so they need to sell you something new or different or whatever, okay.

一本书需要出售，所以他们需要向你出售一些新的或不同的东西，好吧。

But the only thing that matters really is that your kids know you love them, really know deep in their bones, know you love them.

但唯一真正重要的是你的孩子知道你爱他们，真正从骨子里知道你爱他们。

Annie Duke: And we can argue breastfeeding versus not breastfeeding or co-sleeping versus not co-sleeping or attachment parenting or sleep training, we can talk about all that stuff, right?

安妮·杜克：我们可以争论母乳喂养与不母乳喂养、同床同睡、依恋养育或睡眠训练，我们可以讨论所有这些事情，对吗？

Do you homeschool?

你在家上学吗？

Do you send them to private school?

你送他们去私立学校吗？

Do you send them ?

你送他们吗？

We can have lots of , but it all dwarfs in comparison to your children know that you would lay down in the street in the front of a bus if it meant that they would be alive and happy.

我们可以有很多，但与您的孩子相比，这一切都相形见绌，因为​​您的孩子知道，如果这意味着他们会活着并且幸福，您会躺在公共汽车前面的街道上。

That's the number one thing I say.

这是我说的第一件事。

Number two is at some point, you will drop your baby on its head.

第二是在某个时候，你会把你的宝宝摔在头上。

So I bet this has happened to you already.

所以我敢打赌这已经发生在你身上了。

Annie Duke: So here's the thing about babies, is babies can't move.

安妮·杜克：关于婴儿，婴儿不能动。

And so you get very used to as a mom or a dad or you're sitting on the couch and you're folding laundry and your baby is right here next to you and your baby can't move.

所以你已经习惯了作为一个妈妈或爸爸，或者你坐在沙发上叠衣服，而你的宝宝就在你旁边，你的宝宝不能动。

And then one day without warning, your baby can roll over.

然后有一天，在没有任何警告的情况下，你的宝宝会翻身。

And you think it's fine because you put a pillow there or something, but you turn your back for a second because you're like whatever and then your baby falls on its head.

你认为这很好，因为你放了一个枕头或其他东西，但你转过身去，因为你就像什么，然后你的宝宝就摔倒了。

It happened with every single one of my children.

我的每一个孩子都经历过这种事。

And they don't fall that far and whatever, but they're totally fine and you're not a bad parent.

他们并没有跌落那么远，但他们完全没问题，你也不是一个坏父母。

And it's just this, there are things you don't know and stuff's going to happen and it's not going to be perfect.

就是这样，有些事情你不知道，有些事情会发生，而且不会是完美的。

And every little thing isn't going to have some lasting impression on your child because at some point, you will drop your baby on its head and you will not mean to, you didn't intend to.

每一件小事都不会给你的孩子留下持久的印象，因为在某些时候，你会把你的宝宝摔在头上，而你不是故意的，你不是故意的。

Annie Duke: But in my case, it was always like, oh my gosh, my baby can roll over.

安妮·杜克：但就我而言，总是感觉，天哪，我的宝宝可以翻身了。

I did not think that was going to happen today.

我没想到今天会发生这种事。

And gosh, by the time I got to the fourth one, it's like I'm chasing after one baby to try to get the diaper on and this and that, so then the other baby hits its head.

天哪，当我到达第四个时，就好像我在追一个婴儿，试图穿上尿布，然后另一个婴儿撞到了头。

So I think there's just a lesson in that which is like it's a small thing, don't sweat it and don't get mad at yourself because you made a mistake.

所以我认为这只是一个教训，就像这是一件小事一样，不要担心，也不要因为犯了错误而对自己生气。

It's like the mistake would be, oh, I realize my baby could roll over now.

就好像错误是，哦，我意识到我的宝宝现在可以翻身了。

So now you should make sure that you're taking extra precautions about your baby rolling over off the couch.

因此，现在您应该确保采取额外的预防措施，防止宝宝从沙发上滚下来。

But it's really just a funny way for me to say your baby's going to hit its head or walk into a coffee table or get cut or whatever.

但对我来说，这确实是一种有趣的方式，说你的宝宝会撞到头，或者走进咖啡桌，或者被割伤等等。

It's like they're very resilient and you didn't do anything wrong as a parent, so don't beat yourself up about that.

就好像他们的适应能力很强，而作为父母，你没有做错任何事，所以不要为此自责。

And then I do actually have one other thing I say.

然后我实际上还有另一件事要说。

Annie Duke: Be having four, you have very little, you have no influence whatsoever basically on what your child's personality is.

安妮·杜克：有四个孩子，你拥有的就很少了，你基本上对孩子的性格没有任何影响。

What you can do as a parent is make sure they say please and thank you.

作为父母，你能做的就是确保他们说“请”和“谢谢”。

So what I find with parents of one is particularly if that one is very well-behaved, they think they're a great parent and they may be.

所以我发现，如果父母的行为非常好，他们就会认为自己是一位伟大的父母，而且也可能是。

That would be resulting.

就会产生这样的结果。

They may be, but once you have four, what you realize is like, oh, my parenting really didn't have anything to do with it.

也许是，但是一旦你有了四个孩子，你就会意识到，哦，我的养育方式确实与此无关。

But my children do say please and thank you.

但我的孩子们确实会说“请”和“谢谢”。

Lenny Rachitsky: This is really valuable, good advice.

Lenny Rachitsky：这确实是非常有价值的好建议。

I need to hear this.

我需要听听这个。

My wife is going to need to hear this, too.

我的妻子也需要听到这个。

She's always worried about the soft spot on our kid's head and getting hit into some things.

她总是担心我们孩子头上的软肋，担心被什么东西撞到。

Annie Duke: It's actually it's part of why it's there.

安妮·杜克：这实际上是它存在的部分原因。

Really, your baby will be fine.

真的，你的宝宝会没事的。

I mean, that's the thing.

我的意思是，就是这样。

We used to cart babies around in the wilderness, we were living in case.

我们过去常在荒野里推着婴儿到处走，以防万一。

We're fine, we're built for it.

我们很好，我们就是为此而生的。

We're built for a much rougher world than the world that babies actually grow up in now.

我们是为一个比婴儿现在实际成长的世界更加艰难的世界而生的。

I will say my oldest child when she was in high school, just for whatever reason, she had no interest whatsoever in alcohol or drugs or anything like that.

我会说我最大的孩子在高中时，无论出于什么原因，她对酒精或毒品或类似的东西没有任何兴趣。

And I remember just feeling so smug about how well I had raised this child and how great she was, and oh, these other parents who clearly weren't doing a good job.

我记得我对自己抚养这个孩子有多好以及她有多棒感到非常沾沾自喜，哦，其他这些父母显然做得不好。

I mean, I didn't really but because it's hard not to.

我的意思是，我真的没有这样做，但因为很难不这样做。

And then my next child went through high school and I was like, .

然后我的下一个孩子读完了高中，我当时想，。

That's just a temperament thing.

这只是气质问题。

Lenny Rachitsky: It's a good example of resulting in action.

Lenny Rachitsky：这是采取行动的一个很好的例子。

Annie Duke: It is a good example of resulting, but all my kids have turned out fine and they're all very different, but yeah.

安妮·杜克：这是一个很好的例子，但我所有的孩子都表现得很好，而且他们都非常不同，但是是的。

But as far as decision-making is concerned, which is a totally different thing, I'll actually quote Danny Kahneman on this one.

但就决策而言，这是完全不同的事情，我实际上会引用丹尼·卡尼曼（Danny Kahneman）的话。

Nothing is as important as it seems when you're thinking about it, that's a really important one.

当你思考一件事时，没有什么比看起来那么重要，这是非常重要的。

One of the things that I used to try to do with my kids all the time was mental time travel, which is actually a very good decision tool.

我过去一直尝试与孩子们一起做的一件事就是精神时间旅行，这实际上是一个非常好的决策工具。

So they would be really upset about something and it could be something that happened at school or it could be like they were grounded for something or whatever.

所以他们会对某些事情感到非常不安，这可能是在学校发生的事情，也可能是他们因为某事或其他什么而被禁足。

Annie Duke: And the thing is when you're in the moment, it just feels like so big.

安妮·杜克（Annie Duke）：事情是，当你处于当下时，感觉就像是那么大。

And the thing that I used to say and they say all the time now is this is going to be so great for you when you're 40 at Thanksgiving.

我过去常说的，他们现在也常说的，就是当你 40 岁的感恩节时，这对你来说真是太棒了。

You're going to be able to tell these stories to your children and it's going to be the best, like you should be thanking me so that you can talk about your crazy mother at the Thanksgiving table.

你将能够向你的孩子们讲述这些故事，这将是最好的，就像你应该感谢我一样，这样你就可以在感恩节餐桌上谈论你疯狂的母亲。

And it allowed them to get some time and space from it to realize this is going to be funny at some point.

这让他们获得了一些时间和空间，意识到这在某些时候会很有趣。

Annie Duke: At some point, it's going to be a hilarious story that you tell people.

安妮·杜克：在某些时候，你会告诉人们一个搞笑的故事。

No matter how horrible it seems now, it's going to be a hilarious story at some point when you're older.

不管现在看起来多么可怕，当你长大后的某个时刻，这将是一个搞笑的故事。

And it sounds like a fun thing I was doing with them, but it's actually a really good decision-making tool for us in general, right?

这听起来像是我和他们一起做的一件有趣的事情，但实际上对我们来说这是一个非常好的决策工具，对吧？

Look, there are absolutely things that 20 years from now are going to matter, for sure.

看，有些事情绝对会在 20 年后发挥重要作用，这是肯定的。

But most things, no. If you think about most things that ever happen to you, like you're 21 and your girlfriend breaks up with you or whatever and you just think it's the end of the world and you're never going to recover and all these things, but if you could get yourself like, well, how do I really think I'm going to think about this in 10 years?

但大多数事情，没有。如果你想想发生在你身上的大多数事情，比如你 21 岁时，你的女朋友和你分手了，或者其他什么，你只是认为这是世界末日，你永远无法恢复以及所有这些事情，但如果你能让自己想，好吧，我真的认为 10 年后我会如何考虑这件事？

Am I still going to be heartbroken in 10 years?

10年后我还会伤心吗？

Annie Duke: Probably not.

安妮·杜克：可能不会。

And I think that we need to get that perspective of time so that we can get out of the moment because in the moment it just feels so important and the feelings are so big.

我认为我们需要对时间有这样的看法，这样我们才能摆脱当下，因为在那一刻，它感觉如此重要，感受如此强烈。

And it's like the focusing effect on this second and the feelings you're feeling right now are so huge that we forget the scope of time.

就像这一秒的聚焦效应和你现在感受到的感觉是如此巨大，以至于我们忘记了时间的范围。

And I think that that's absolutely one of the best things you can do with your kids, and you can do it in small ways too, right?

我认为这绝对是您可以与孩子一起做的最好的事情之一，而且您也可以通过一些小方法来做到这一点，对吧？

You can choose to play this video game or you can choose to study for your task.

您可以选择玩这个视频游戏，也可以选择为您的任务进行学习。

A week from now when you get that test back, how do you think you're going to feel about those two choices?

一周后，当你收到测试结果时，你认为你对这两个选择会有什么感觉？

Right?

正确的？

Annie Duke: So that was a tool that I used a ton and it's just generally an amazing decision-making tool, just generally for people.

安妮·杜克：这是一个我经常使用的工具，它通常是一个令人惊叹的决策工具，一般来说对于人们来说。

It's one that I happen to use with my kids all the time.

这是我经常和我的孩子们一起使用的一款。

And then I would say that the other one was using the word nevertheless, which is this is a great leadership skill, the word nevertheless.

然后我会说另一个人使用了“尽管如此”这个词，这是一项伟大的领导技能，“尽管如此”这个词。

So let's say my child got caught doing something wrong.

假设我的孩子做错事被抓了。

I don't know, I found a bag of red solo cups in my backyard that they forgot to throw out after a weekend that I was away.

我不知道，我在后院发现了一袋红色的独奏杯子，在我离开的一个周末后他们忘记扔掉了。

That's hypothetical.

这是假设的。

So I'm grounding them and it's a lot of argument back, right?

所以我让他们停飞，这引起了很多争论，对吗？

So they think this is a debate and they're giving me all of their input and their opinions on why it's unfair and all the other kids do it and the other parents don't get mad and whatever, whatever the argument is.

所以他们认为这是一场辩论，他们向我提供了他们所有的意见和观点，解释为什么这是不公平的，所有其他孩子都这样做，其他父母也不会生气等等，无论争论是什么。

You have to have the balance between them feeling heard, which I think is incredibly important that your children feel heard, and following through on what you know or believe is right.

你必须在他们感到被倾听和坚持你所知道或相信正确的事情之间取得平衡，我认为这对于你的孩子感到被倾听非常重要。

Annie Duke: So it's I hear you.

安妮·杜克：所以我听到了。

Nevertheless, you're grounded for two weeks.

尽管如此，你仍将被禁足两周。

I hear what you're saying and I understand.

我听到你在说什么，我明白了。

Nevertheless, this is what's going to happen.

然而，这就是将要发生的事情。

And obviously, the words that you can use for that might be different.

显然，你可以使用的词语可能会有所不同。

You have so much more authority obviously over your children than you do in other places.

显然，你对孩子的权威比在其他地方要大得多。

But in the workplace, this is very good because employees gripe all the time at decisions that you make in leadership because they think they're right and they want their way.

但在工作场所，这是非常好的，因为员工总是抱怨你在领导层做出的决定，因为他们认为自己是对的，他们想要按照自己的方式行事。

And to have the ability to say, I heard you and your input, trust me, was incorporated into the decision, nevertheless, this is the path we're going to take.

并且有能力说，我听到了您的意见，相信我，您的意见已纳入决策中，尽管如此，这就是我们要走的路。

Right or wrong, that's what we're going to do.

无论对与错，这就是我们要做的。

So I think there's a lot of things that basically you can say.

所以我认为基本上你可以说很多事情。

These are good things to do with kids, but they're actually just generally really good decision strategies.

这些对孩子来说都是好事，但实际上它们通常都是非常好的决策策略。

Lenny Rachitsky: I'm taking notes on all these things.

Lenny Rachitsky：我正在记录所有这些事情。

These are going to be extremely useful.

这些将非常有用。

Annie Duke: Nevertheless is a really good one with children.

安妮·杜克：不过，对于孩子们来说，这确实是一个很好的选择。

Lenny Rachitsky: It connects to something Dr. Becky teaches, if you know her, of telling someone, "I believe you." When your kid says something and they're upset about something, start with I believe you.

Lenny Rachitsky：如果你认识贝基博士，这与告诉某人“我相信你”有关。当你的孩子说了一些话并且他们对某件事感到不安时，请从“我相信你”开始。

Lenny Rachitsky: And here's nevertheless, exactly.

Lenny Rachitsky：不过，确实如此。

Fair enough.

很公平。

I think we're going to start having to pivot this podcast to a parenting podcast because there's so much stuff here, but I'm going to try to resist.

我认为我们将不得不开始将这个播客转向育儿播客，因为这里有太多东西，但我会尽力抵制。

So we've been talking about decision-making and frameworks and things like that.

所以我们一直在讨论决策和框架之类的事情。

Something I wanted to ask you is how much better can someone get at making better decisions?

我想问你的是，一个人在做出更好的决定方面能做得有多好？

So for example, say someone listens to all of your podcasts, reads your book, studies it intensely.

举个例子，假设有人听了你所有的播客，读了你的书，认真研究了它。

What's the delta you find in somebody being able to make a better decision?

您发现某人能够做出更好的决定的增量是多少？

And where comes from is Daniel Kahneman of all people.

所有人中的丹尼尔·卡尼曼来自哪里。

People ask him, "Do you just live such a optimal life now that you know all of these biases we have and all these mental errors we make?" And he's like, "No, I can't..." I think he said famously, "I don't, actually.

人们问他：“既然你知道我们存在的所有这些偏见和我们犯的所有这些心理错误，你是否过着如此理想的生活？”他说，“不，我不能……”我想他说过一句著名的话，“实际上，我不能。

I can't use these in practice.

我无法在实践中使用这些。

This is just stuff that I have learned, but it doesn't actually impact my day to day." So I'm curious just how much better can someone get?

这只是我学到的东西，但它实际上并没有影响我的日常生活。”所以我很好奇一个人能进步多少？

What kind of delta have you found in terms of making decisions?

您在决策方面发现了什么样的差异？

Annie Duke: Okay, so it depends on whether you actually do the things.

安妮·杜克：好的，这取决于你是否真的做了这些事情。

I mean, I think that that's what the issue is.

我的意思是，我认为这就是问题所在。

I think Kahneman did some work way back that started him on this journey.

我认为卡尼曼很久以前就做了一些工作，开始了他的这段旅程。

That was basically work on hiring and it was taking it from completely unstructured Lenny, saying, "I just know a great product manager when I see one", whatever that means, to me going to Lenny and saying, "Okay, I understand that you think that you see a great product manager you know one when you see one", but can you explain to me what that means?

这基本上是招聘方面的工作，它是从完全非结构化的莱尼那里得到的，他说，“当我看到一个伟大的产品经理时，我就知道了”，不管这意味着什么，我去找莱尼说，“好吧，我理解你认为你看到一个伟大的产品经理，当你看到一个伟大的产品经理时，你就认识一个”，但是你能向我解释一下这意味着什么吗？

In the abstract, what are the things that you're looking for in someone that you want to fill that role?

简而言之，您希望在您想要担任该职位的人身上寻找哪些特质？

And we can then excavate that, right?

然后我们就可以挖掘它，对吗？

And make what is implicit because you're applying some implicit model to how you're thinking about the person that you're interviewing and how they map onto the role that they're going to be, but let's make that explicit.

做出隐式的内容，因为你正在应用一些隐式模型来思考你正在面试的人如何思考以及他们如何映射到他们将要担任的角色，但让我们把它说得更明确。

Annie Duke: So we can make that explicit, we can turn it into a decision rubric, we can create a structured interview process out of that.

安妮·杜克：所以我们可以明确这一点，我们可以将其变成一个决策准则，我们可以据此创建一个结构化的面试流程。

And then what he found was after you've gone through that process, if you then use your intuition after having done that, not before, that then you actually can really drastically improve your hit rate on hiring.

然后他发现，在你完成这个过程之后，如果你在完成这个过程之后使用你的直觉，而不是之前，那么你实际上可以极大地提高你的招聘命中率。

And in that case, it was from about a 50% hit rate to 65.

在这种情况下，命中率从 50% 左右下降到了 65%。

So that's pretty huge, so that's a really big difference.

所以这是相当大的，所以这是一个非常大的差异。

The problem is nobody does it.

问题是没有人这样做。

So I can tell you that most of the conversations that I had with Danny that were about my work in particular were just him saying, "How do you get anybody to do it?" Now that's not to say that I would be better at that than him, it's that he didn't do my job, right?

所以我可以告诉你，我与丹尼进行的大部分关于我的工作的对话只是他说，“你如何让别人去做这件事？”这并不是说我会比他做得更好，而是他没有做好我的工作，对吗？

So he was an academic doing research and so on and so forth, I'm living in companies embedding for years.

所以他是一位从事研究等等的学者，我在嵌入公司生活了很多年。

Annie Duke: I've been with one client for five years, one client for four years, one client for four years also, almost four years, three and a half years.

安妮·杜克：我和一位客户合作了五年，一位客户四年了，一位客户也合作了四年，差不多四年了，三年半了。

And then I just took on a new client who I've been with for six months, and that's my whole client roster because I stay with them so long.

然后我刚刚接待了一位新客户，我已经和他合作了六个月，这就是我的整个客户名单，因为我和他们呆了很长时间。

So if you do it, the answer is quite a bit.

所以如果你这样做的话，答案是相当多的。

Like at least in terms of Danny's work in relation to something pretty noisy like hiring, you went from 50% hit rate to 65% hit rate, which is huge.

至少就丹尼的工作而言，与招聘等相当吵闹的事情有关，你的命中率从 50% 提高到了 65%，这是巨大的。

It's enormous.

这是巨大的。

The problem is that the way that you can make decisions in order to be better at them is not supernatural to the way that humans make decisions.

问题在于，为了更好地做出决策的方式对于人类决策的方式来说并不是超自然的。

Annie Duke: I think we think a lot more highly of our intuition than we really ought to.

安妮·杜克（Annie Duke）：我认为我们对直觉的重视程度超出了我们真正应该重视的程度。

We think very highly of our ability to notice things in the moment and act rationally toward them in a way that really we ought not to.

我们高度评价自己当下注意到事物的能力，并以我们不应该这样做的方式理性地对待它们。

We tend to think that we have insight that other people don't have when actually the other people probably have more insight into our situation than we do.

我们倾向于认为我们拥有其他人所没有的洞察力，而实际上其他人可能比我们更了解我们的情况。

So I think the answer is a lot with a big if, with an if you can get people to do it.

所以我认为答案是一个很大的假设，假设你可以让人们去做这件事。

And I think that's where the issue comes in.

我认为这就是问题所在。

Now, the good news is that you can then reverse that and say if I'm willing to do it, think about what an edge I'm going to have over people who aren't willing to do it, right?

现在，好消息是，你可以反过来说，如果我愿意这样做，想想我比那些不愿意这样做的人有什么优势，对吗？

Annie Duke: So we can think there's people who don't know about it, there's people who do know about it but don't do it, and then there's people who do know about it, but do do it.

安妮·杜克：所以我们可以认为有些人不知道它，有些人知道但不这样做，然后有些人知道但做了。

And it's that last group that's so tiny.

最后一组的规模非常小。

So the answer is I think a lot, but nobody does it.

所以答案是我想了很多，但没有人去做。

Lenny Rachitsky: So maybe following that thread, when you look at companies that you've worked with or companies that have read your book and really dove in and started to implement some of your piece of advice to make better decisions, if you could look back at the ones that had an impact, what do you find are the mental models or frameworks or tactics that really stick that most often have an impact and the biggest impact?

Lenny Rachitsky：因此，也许按照这个思路，当你看看与你合作过的公司或读过你的书并真正投入并开始实施你的一些建议以做出更好的决策的公司时，如果你能回顾一下那些产生影响的公司，你会发现什么是真正持久且最常产生影响和影响最大的心智模型、框架或策略？

Annie Duke: I think the one that's easiest to implement is this.

Annie Duke：我认为最容易实现的就是这个。

And it's so easy, and I just wish more people would do it.

而且很简单，我只是希望更多的人能这样做。

The best way to get somebody's opinion is independently of other people's opinions, independently asynchronously.

获得某人意见的最佳方式是独立于其他人的意见，独立地异步。

So the way that I put is I want people to stop talking to each other so much.

所以我的说法是，我希望人们停止过多地互相交谈。

When we think about what did people generally think the purpose of a meeting is, they think it's for three things.

当我们思考人们通常认为会议的目的是什么时，他们认为会议的目的是三件事。

Discovery, which is I want to discover what your opinions are, what your judgments are of something, right?

发现，就是我想知道你对某件事的看法是什么，你的判断是什么，对吗？

So I want to find out what you think about something.

所以我想知道你对某事的看法。

So for example, if we're in product development and we're trying to figure out a timeline, we're trying to develop a product roadmap and we're trying to figure out how long it's going to take to release certain features or something like that, we all come into a room and we start yelling it out together.

举例来说，如果我们正在进行产品开发，我们试图找出一个时间表，我们试图制定一个产品路线图，我们试图弄清楚发布某些功能或类似的东西需要多长时间，我们都会进入一个房间，然后开始一起喊出来。

Annie Duke: It's so bad for decision-making, I can't even tell you.

安妮·杜克：这对决策来说太糟糕了，我什至无法告诉你。

There's cross influence, the loudest person in the room tends to then have an outsized influence on the decision, the most confident person in the room tends to have an outsized influence on the decision.

存在交叉影响，房间里声音最大的人往往会对决策产生巨大的影响，房间里最自信的人往往会对决策产生巨大的影响。

And that's great if the most confident person is also right, but the problem is that's not always so.

如果最自信的人也是对的，那就太好了，但问题是情况并非总是如此。

And so that's the discovery piece, right?

这就是发现部分，对吧？

And we tend to do that in a group.

我们倾向于在团队中这样做。

And then there's discussion, which is I've now discovered the way that Lenny is modeling this problem or what his judgments are about certain things or his forecasts are, his estimates are.

然后是讨论，我现在发现了莱尼建模这个问题的方式，或者他对某些事情的判断是什么，或者他的预测是什么，他的估计是什么。

And now, we're going to discuss those ideas and we're going to discuss your ideas in comparison to my ideas, and that's going to happen in the group setting.

现在，我们将讨论这些想法，并将您的想法与我的想法进行比较，这将在小组环境中进行。

And then there's also now, we're going to decide in the group setting.

然后现在，我们将在小组环境中做出决定。

So we're going to make some set of decisions about say what the roadmap is going to look like.

因此，我们将做出一些关于路线图的决定。

Annie Duke: Here's the thing that I think is the easiest to change, is to realize the only thing that's ever supposed to happen in a meeting is the discussion part.

安妮·杜克：我认为最容易改变的事情是意识到会议中唯一应该发生的事情就是讨论部分。

So we should absolutely be coming together as human beings to discuss everybody's judgments and opinions and the way they're modeling the problem and their forecasts.

因此，我们绝对应该作为人类聚集在一起，讨论每个人的判断和意见，以及他们对问题和预测进行建模的方式。

In particular, it's really good to come in and discuss the places where people are different.

特别是能够进来讨论人们不同的地方真的很好。

So you've been in many meetings, I'm sure about 80% of the time is double clicking.

所以你参加过很多次会议，我确信大约 80% 的时间都是双击。

Oh, I agree.

哦，我同意。

And I want to now we've literally just used different words to say the exact same thing because I'm in agreement.

我想现在我们实际上只是用不同的词来表达完全相同的事情，因为我同意。

Annie Duke: If we can focus the discussion on places that people disagree, we're much better off.

安妮·杜克：如果我们能够将讨论集中在人们不同意的地方，我们的情况就会好得多。

But so now we can take this, discover, discuss, decide.

但现在我们可以接受这个、发现、讨论、决定。

So I'm saying discuss is only supposed to happen in the meeting, that's the only thing that's supposed to happen in the meeting.

所以我说讨论只应该在会议中进行，这是会议中唯一应该发生的事情。

So what's happening with the other stuff, the discover and the decide?

那么其他的事情、发现和决定发生了什么？

Well, and this is the thing that I think I actually have been able to get people to do is discover what people think before you get in a room independently of each other.

嗯，我认为我实际上能够让人们做的事情就是在你们彼此独立地进入一个房间之前发现人们的想法。

So how would you do that?

那么你会怎么做呢？

Well, let's imagine that you're going to have a meeting about the product roadmap.

好吧，让我们假设您将召开一次有关产品路线图的会议。

Annie Duke: So you would say to yourself in this meeting, what are the opinions that I need to get from the people in the room?

安妮·杜克：所以你会在这次会议上对自己说，我需要从房间里的人那里得到什么意见？

It could be a brainstorm.

这可能是一场头脑风暴。

What are all the different features that we could develop?

我们可以开发哪些不同的功能？

So it could be a brainstorm.

所以这可能是一场头脑风暴。

Fine.

美好的。

Write to them independently and say, "Hey, free for off.

独立地写信给他们并说：“嘿，免费。

Just come up with all the different features that you think would be reasonable for us to consider developing and then give me a forced rank from best to worst of your own ideas with some three to five sentence rationale as to why you have these things in this order." And so I could do that, but maybe we already have a list.

只需提出您认为对我们来说合理开发的所有不同功能，然后给我一个从最好到最差的您自己的想法的强制排名，并用大约三到五句话的理由说明为什么您按此顺序拥有这些东西。”所以我可以这样做，但也许我们已经有了一份清单。

I can send that out for a forced rank to everybody.

我可以将其发送给每个人进行强制排名。

Okay, so here's the final list of things we're really considering.

好的，这是我们真正考虑的事情的最终清单。

Prioritize those for me, just force rank them.

对我来说优先考虑这些，只是强制对它们进行排名。

And then again, give me a rationale.

然后再给我一个理由。

Annie Duke: Give me a little bit of free writing as to why you think this should be, that you have these things in this order.

安妮·杜克（Annie Duke）：请给我一些自由写作，解释为什么你认为应该这样，你按这个顺序拥有这些东西。

Maybe we've decided now on what our top five priorities are.

也许我们现在已经决定了我们的五个首要任务是什么。

Great.

伟大的。

I could, before the meeting, send the top five priorities out.

我可以在会议之前提出最重要的五个优先事项。

"Hey, we've decided on this stuff." For each thing, I'd like to understand what you think a reasonable timeline is, how many sprints it's going to take, so on, so forth, right?

“嘿，我们已经决定了。”对于每件事，我想了解您认为合理的时间表是什么，需要多少个冲刺，等等，对吗？

So we can ask for that type of information so that we can start making estimates because that's going to affect budget and what we're going back to the board with and so on so forth.

因此，我们可以要求提供此类信息，以便我们可以开始进行估算，因为这将影响预算以及我们将向董事会反馈的内容等等。

But regardless, just figure out what is the thing that we're going to be discussing in this meeting?

但无论如何，只要弄清楚我们在这次会议上要讨论的事情是什么？

And I'm going to send it out to everybody independently and I'm going to say, "Don't reply all, just send it back to me independently."

我会把它独立地发给每个人，我会说，“不要全部回复，只需独立地发回给我。”

Annie Duke: If it's a repeated decision, you can actually create a rubric that lives on Airtable or Coda or Google Sheets or whatever, I don't really care.

Annie Duke：如果这是一个重复的决定，你实际上可以创建一个存在于 Airtable 或 Coda 或 Google Sheets 或其他任何东西上的标题，我真的不在乎。

And people can input their decisions there where they can't see anybody else's decision.

人们可以在那里输入他们的决定，而他们看不到其他人的决定。

So with Google, you can use Google Forms in order to do it, and then it dumps into a spreadsheet that only you can see.

因此，使用 Google，您可以使用 Google Forms 来完成此操作，然后它会转储到只有您可以看到的电子表格中。

That's a great way to do it.

这是一个很好的方法。

So anyway, so you do that and now you can now see everybody's opinions that you then now send out to the group and say, "Everybody, look this over before we come in and discuss." So notice you're still working as a group, but you're working as a group where you're not in the same room together and talking at the same time.

所以无论如何，你这样做了，现在你可以看到每个人的意见，然后你现在将这些意见发送给小组并说：“大家在我们进来讨论之前先看看这个。”因此，请注意，你们仍然作为一个团队工作，但你们不是在同一个房间里同时交谈。

And there's a word for that, which is nominal group.

有一个词可以形容这一点，那就是名义团体。

So it's a group that at that moment is working independently and asynchronously of each other.

因此，这是一个此时彼此独立且异步工作的团队。

Annie Duke: So if you can get people to do that, and I do have companies where I don't consult with them, but I've just come in and talked to them briefly or whatever that do actually implement that piece of it.

安妮·杜克：所以，如果你能让人们这样做，我确实有一些公司，我没有与他们协商，但我刚刚进来并与他们进行了简短的交谈，或者与实际实施该部分的其他公司进行了交谈。

That is a huge piece of it, that's ginormous.

这是其中的很大一部分，非常巨大。

And then you do the same thing for deciding.

然后你做同样的事情来做出决定。

So the decision should not be made in a room, it's made either.

所以决定不应该在一个房间里做出，它也已经做出了。

I love the one decision maker model, but not everybody's down with that.

我喜欢单一决策者模型，但并不是每个人都同意这一点。

But you can have a vote forum where people go vote in private about the way they're leaning.

但是你可以建立一个投票论坛，人们可以私下投票决定他们的倾向。

Annie Duke: You can do a variety of things with that, but just don't do it.

安妮·杜克：你可以用它做很多事情，但不要这样做。

Don't do it in the meeting.

不要在会议中这样做。

And then just the last thing that I'll add, which is a muscle that you really have to exercise, is I think it's really important to understand that the word alignment in terms of we're all aligned as a group, right?

然后我要补充的最后一件事，这是你真正需要锻炼的肌肉，我认为理解“对齐”这个词非常重要，因为我们作为一个群体都是对齐的，对吧？

The word alignment is stupid and it shouldn't be used.

对齐这个词很愚蠢，不应该使用。

And I know I'm saying that very harshly, but it's true.

我知道我说得非常严厉，但这是事实。

It's dumb because it doesn't exist.

它很愚蠢，因为它不存在。

You have 10 people in a room and they're all really different people with different opinions, and they're never going to come out of the room agreeing with each other.

一个房间里有 10 个人，他们都是不同的人，有不同的观点，而且他们永远不会在走出房间时彼此意见一致。

And it's really bad if the expectation is that they're supposed to, and it's really bad for a few reasons.

如果期望是他们应该这样做的话，那真的很糟糕，而且由于某些原因，这真的很糟糕。

One is it isn't reality, and that I don't like coming out of things without reality actually kicking.

一是这不是现实，而且我不喜欢在没有现实的情况下摆脱现实。

Annie Duke: So it's not reality.

安妮·杜克：所以这不是现实。

People don't actually agree, they're not actually aligned on the decision.

人们实际上并不同意，他们实际上并没有在决定上保持一致。

That's just the thing that makes you feel better, right?

这就是让你感觉更好的事情，对吧？

So I think that that's problem number one.

所以我认为这是第一个问题。

But problem number two is that if the goal is alignment, if the goal is agreement, then the meeting becomes coercive and you never want that.

但第二个问题是，如果目标是一致的，如果目标是一致的，那么会议就会变得具有强制性，而你永远不希望这样。

So the way that I'm supposed to talk about my ideas is to convey why I believe what I do, not to convince anybody that I'm right because if I'm working to convince people that I'm right, it becomes coercive and that's horrible.

因此，我应该谈论我的想法的方式是传达为什么我相信我所做的事情，而不是让任何人相信我是对的，因为如果我努力说服人们我是对的，它就会变得具有强制性，这是可怕的。

So you have to get comfortable with walking out of the room.

所以你必须适应走出房间。

This is the nevertheless.

这就是尽管如此。

Walking out of the room understanding that once you have that discussion, it's not that Lenny, your opinion might change.

走出房间时要明白，一旦你们进行了讨论，不是莱尼，您的观点可能会改变。

It could, right?

可以，对吧？

I could say my thing and it could be just so damn brilliant that you change your mind somewhat, right?

我可以说出我的想法，但它可能太棒了，以至于你会改变主意，对吗？

Annie Duke: So you come maybe you're like, "Oh, I'm thinking about this differently and actually", but maybe you don't and you still believe a thing that's very different than me.

安妮·杜克：所以你来了，也许你会说，“哦，我实际上以不同的方式思考这个问题”，但也许你不这么认为，而且你仍然相信一些与我非常不同的事情。

And leadership has to say, "That's fine.

领导层必须说：“那很好。

I've heard both of you and I know that this isn't going Annie's way.

我听过你们俩的意见，我知道这不符合安妮的意愿。

Nevertheless, trying to think about what all of our goals are, this is what the decision is going to be and it's totally fine that you ended up not agreeing with each other because it's reality.

尽管如此，试着想想我们所有的目标是什么，这就是我们将要做出的决定，如果你们最终不同意彼此，那完全没问题，因为这是现实。

And what it allows me to do is get a better sense of what the space of decisions is." So those things I have been able to get people to do and they're actually quite impactful.

它让我能够更好地了解决策空间。”所以我已经能够让人们去做这些事情，而且它们实际上非常有影响力。

Lenny Rachitsky: Imagine a place where you can find all your potential customers and get your message in front of them in a cost-efficient way.

Lenny Rachitsky：想象一个地方，您可以找到所有潜在客户，并以经济高效的方式向他们传达您的信息。

If you're a B2B business, that place exists, and it's called LinkedIn.

如果您从事 B2B 业务，那么这个地方就存在，它的名字叫 LinkedIn。

LinkedIn Ads allows you to build the right relationships, drive results, and reach your customers in a respectful environment.

LinkedIn 广告可让您建立正确的关系、推动成果并在相互尊重的环境中接触您的客户。

Two of my portfolio companies, Webflow and Census, are LinkedIn success stories.

我的投资组合中的两家公司 Webflow 和 Census 都是 LinkedIn 的成功案例。

Census had a 10X increase in pipeline with the LinkedIn startup team.

Census 与 LinkedIn 初创团队合作的渠道增加了 10 倍。

For Webflow, after ramping up on LinkedIn in Q4, they had the highest marketing source revenue quarter to date.

对于 Webflow 来说，在第四季度在 LinkedIn 上取得进展后，他们拥有了迄今为止季度最高的营销来源收入。

With LinkedIn Ads, you'll have direct access to and can build relationships with decision-makers, including 950 million members, 180 million senior execs and over 10 million C-level executives.

借助 LinkedIn Ads，您将可以直接接触决策者并与其建立关系，其中包括 9.5 亿会员、1.8 亿高级管理人员和超过 1000 万 C 级管理人员。

You'll be able to drive results with targeting and measurement tools built specifically for B2B.

您将能够利用专为 B2B 构建的定位和衡量工具来推动结果。

In tech, LinkedIn generated two to five X higher return on ad spend than any other social media platforms.

在科技领域，LinkedIn 的广告支出回报率比任何其他社交媒体平台高出两到五倍。

Lenny Rachitsky: Audiences on LinkedIn have two times the buying power of the average web audience, and you'll work with a partner who respects the B2B world you operate in.

Lenny Rachitsky：LinkedIn 上的受众的购买力是普通网络受众的两倍，而且您将与尊重您所在 B2B 世界的合作伙伴合作。

Make B2B marketing everything it can be and get $100 credit on your next campaign.

尽一切可能进行 B2B 营销，并在您的下一次营销活动中获得 100 美元的积分。

Just go to linkedin.com/podlenny to claim your credit.

只需访问 linkedin.com/podlenny 即可领取您的积分。

That's linkedin.com/podlenny.

那是 linkedin.com/podlenny。

Terms and conditions apply.

条款和条件适用。

There's an implication here you touched on a bit that there's a DRI essentially, there's one decision maker.

您在这里提到了一个暗示，即本质上有一个 DRI，有一个决策者。

Sometimes people start to feel like, "Oh, my voice isn't heard.

有时人们开始感觉，“哦，我的声音没有被听到。

I don't have a lot of say, I can't be part of this decision." And you talked a bunch about just how to make people feel included, you get feedback along the way.

我没有太多发言权，我不能参与这个决定。”你谈了很多关于如何让人们感到被包容的问题，你一路上得到了反馈。

But any advice there if you try to move to this model of making people feel like, "Okay, I actually have impact on where this goes"?

但是，如果你尝试转向这种让人们感觉“好吧，我实际上对事情的发展有影响”的模式，有什么建议吗？

Annie Duke: Yeah.

安妮杜克：是的。

So here's the really wonderful thing about moving from a coercive model to really, I guess you could say a model of curiosity, right?

所以，从强制模型转变为真正的奇妙之处在于，我想你可以说是好奇心模型，对吧？

You want to be curious, not coercive, which means that the way that people in the meeting are talking about what their opinions are is in the mode of conveying information, not trying to convince anybody.

你想要保持好奇，而不是强迫，这意味着会议中的人们谈论他们的观点的方式是传达信息的方式，而不是试图说服任何人。

So once we move away from that coercive model, and when I say coercive, I'm not saying anybody is purposely trying to set up a culture of coercion.

因此，一旦我们摆脱那种强制模式，当我说强制时，我并不是说有人故意试图建立一种强制文化。

Sometimes that's true, but for the most part, everybody's trying to do a good job and nobody's trying to set up a culture of coercion.

有时确实如此，但在大多数情况下，每个人都在努力做好工作，没有人试图建立一种强制文化。

But as soon as you say, "Are we all in agreement?

但一旦你说：“我们都同意吗？

Are we all in alignment?" And as soon as you're allowing people, and I'm sure you've been in these meetings, right?

我们都一致吗？”一旦你允许人们参加，我确信你已经参加了这些会议，对吗？

If you allow people to interrupt, if you allow people to say this, "I think you're wrong", "I disagree", "Here's why", those are all very coercive things to have happen.

如果你允许人们打断，如果你允许人们说，“我认为你错了”，“我不同意”，“这就是原因”，这些都是非常强制性的事情发生。

Annie Duke: Interrupting someone is silencing them.

安妮·杜克：打断某人就是让他们沉默。

Saying, "You're wrong", well now, you become tribal and people aren't going to be open-minded and they're going to stake their ground and it's all really bad.

说“你错了”，那么现在，你就变成了部落，人们不会思想开放，他们会坚持自己的立场，这一切都非常糟糕。

So let's move away from that.

所以让我们远离这一点。

Number one, that's already going to help.

第一，这已经有帮助了。

But when we think about the way that meetings normally happen, again, there's all this crosstalk and some people aren't speaking and some people are and so on, so forth.

但是，当我们再次考虑会议通常发生的方式时，就会发现所有这些串扰，有些人没有说话，有些人在说话，等等。

And then of course, not everybody feels equally heard.

当然，并不是每个人都感觉自己得到了平等的倾听。

But when you work as a nominal group, let's talk about something as simple as we're going to make a forecast of how long it's going to take to launch this product feature.

但是，当您作为名义团队工作时，我们可以讨论一些简单的事情，例如我们将预测推出此产品功能需要多长时间。

Okay.

好的。

So I'm going to send out to everybody, what's your point estimate?

所以我要向大家发出，你的分数估计是多少？

What's your lower bound?

你的下限是多少？

What's your upper bound in terms of timeline?

您的时间上限是多少？

Annie Duke: And you could do it in some way, like how many sprints do you think is going to take whatever language you want to use?

Annie Duke：你可以通过某种方式做到这一点，比如你认为无论你想使用什么语言，都会进行多少次冲刺？

Now, everybody independently now gives their forecast with a rationale for why they believe that.

现在，每个人都独立地给出他们的预测，并给出他们相信这一点的理由。

And then you come into the room and you run a discussion where everybody's getting to say what their estimate was and why they believe that, and people are getting to ask questions.

然后你走进房间进行讨论，每个人都可以说出他们的估计是什么以及他们为什么相信这一点，并且人们开始提出问题。

"I have a question" always is a clarification, it's just I don't understand.

“我有一个问题”总是一个澄清，只是我不明白。

And as the leadership, the way that you would do it is, let me give you an example from a real one because that'll be easy.

作为领导者，你会采取的方式是，让我给你举一个真实的例子，因为这很容易。

I did one of these discussions for a question about remote work, like what did the company want in terms of remote versus hybrid and that kind of thing.

我针对一个有关远程工作的问题进行了其中一次讨论，比如公司在远程与混合等方面想要什么。

And so there was a lot of disagreement about whether whatever the policy was, it should be consistent across functions.

因此，对于无论政策是什么，是否应该在各个职能部门保持一致，存在很多分歧。

Lots of disagreement.

很多不同意见。

Annie Duke: So let's take somebody who was on the, no, it shouldn't be consistent across functions.

安妮·杜克：所以让我们以一个人为例，不，不同职能之间不应该保持一致。

So they now say why they believe it shouldn't be consistent across functions and they say things like, "Well, different functions have different requirements, right?" So there's some functions that have to be in the office, like if you're IT as an example, but there's other functions which are more collaborative and creative and whatnot where it makes sense for people to be in the office, whereas engineers doesn't really matter, right?

所以他们现在说为什么他们认为不同职能之间不应该保持一致，他们会说，“嗯，不同的职能有不同的要求，对吗？”因此，有些职能必须在办公室进行，例如，如果您是 IT 人员，但还有其他职能更具协作性和创造性，以及人们在办公室有意义的地方，而工程师并不重要，对吗？

So there's different needs of different functions in terms of how much they need to be in the same space.

因此，不同的功能对于在同一空间内的需要程度有不同的需求。

So I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with this, I'm just saying what somebody said.

所以我不同意也不反对，我只是说别人说的话。

So now as a facilitator, I never say, "Oh, I agree." What I say is I just want to make sure I understood what you said and I reflect it back.

所以现在作为引导者，我从不说：“哦，我同意。”我想说的是，我只是想确保我理解你所说的内容，然后我会进行反思。

Annie Duke: So I say, "So what I heard you say is that not all functions are created equal in terms of how well they work remotely or how well they work in person or what the flexibility might be.

安妮·杜克：所以我说，“所以我听到你说的是，并非所有职能在远程工作、面对面工作或灵活性方面都是平等的。

So what you're saying is there're functions that have to be in person.

所以你的意思是有些职能必须亲自进行。

Period.

期间。

And then other functions where that collaborative element being in the same office would be more important versus some functions where being remote is totally fine.

然后，与某些远程办公完全没问题的功能相比，在同一办公室进行协作的其他功能会更加重要。

Is that what you meant?" And then they have the ability to say, "Yes, that is what I meant" or, "Actually, I meant something slightly different.

你是这个意思吗？”然后他们有能力说，“是的，这就是我的意思”或者，“实际上，我的意思略有不同。

Let me say what that is", and then I reflect that back.

让我说那是什么”，然后我反思一下。

Okay, so literally you're just going around, you're calling on people to do that, and then you're reflecting back what they say without offering your own opinion.

好吧，从字面上看，你只是四处走动，你呼吁人们这样做，然后你反思他们所说的话，而不提供你自己的意见。

I don't know, Lenny.

我不知道，莱尼。

Tell me how someone doesn't feel heard in that situation.

告诉我在那种情况下，某人如何感觉自己没有被倾听。

Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：是的。

Absolutely.

绝对地。

I would feel so good if somebody just clarified and made it clear they know exactly what I'm saying, even if the decision doesn't end up the way I want.

如果有人澄清并明确表示他们确切地知道我在说什么，我会感觉很好，即使决定最终没有按照我想要的方式进行。

Annie Duke: Right, so that's the thing.

安妮·杜克：对，就是这样。

And then what actually ends up happening is that the people in the room feel more, the psychological term would be endowed, more endowed to the decision.

然后实际最终发生的是，房间里的人感觉更多，心理术语将被赋予，更多地赋予决定。

In other words, they feel like they have ownership over the decision.

换句话说，他们觉得自己对这个决定拥有所有权。

And whatever the decision is, they generally will see their selves reflected in it because they were heard.

无论决定是什么，他们通常都会看到自己的想法被反映在其中，因为他们的声音被听到了。

And they also will generally understand that nobody, no one really ends up with exactly every single thing that they wanted to see in the decision because they also get to see the true spread of opinions on the team.

他们通常也会明白，没有人、没有人真正最终得到他们希望在决策中看到的每一件事，因为他们也能看到团队中意见的真实传播。

And what you see in that situation is that there's lots and lots and lots and lots of disagreement, which you don't see if you talk in a group.

在这种情况下，你会看到存在很多很多分歧，而如果你在小组中交谈，你就看不到这些分歧。

It narrows the space, right?

它缩小了空间，对吗？

Annie Duke: So for example, particularly if you're senior, if you say, "I think this is going to take three months to launch" and I was thinking four weeks, you're never going to hear four weeks from me, ever.

安妮·杜克：举个例子，特别是如果你是资深人士，如果你说，“我认为这将需要三个月的时间才能推出”，而我原以为需要四个星期，那么你永远不会收到我的四个星期的消息。

But if we get those opinions independently, you will actually hear that I think it's going to take four weeks.

但如果我们独立地获得这些意见，你实际上会听说我认为这需要四个星期的时间。

You may tend to be more right there being more senior, but I may have something interesting to say.

级别越高的人可能会更正确，但我可能有一些有趣的话要说。

You should hear what I have to say.

你应该听听我要说的话。

And this also allows me to learn from you, too.

这也让我可以向你学习。

But because I haven't heard your opinion first, then I'm not going to conform my opinion to yours.

但因为我没有先听过你的意见，所以我不会同意你的意见。

So it actually spreads the surface area of disagreement that you see on the team, which then makes people feel much better about the decision not being exactly what they want because they recognize like, "Oh, this is actually a hard problem.

因此，它实际上分散了你在团队中看到的分歧表面，这让人们对这个决定不完全是他们想要的感觉更好，因为他们认识到，“哦，这实际上是一个难题。

People really disagree on this stuff."

人们在这个问题上确实存在分歧。”

Lenny Rachitsky: Amazing.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：太棒了。

I think this is going to be really helpful to a lot of people.

我认为这对很多人来说真的很有帮助。

Just to close the thread on this little summary maybe is core advice here is brainstorm separately.

只是为了结束这个小总结的线程，也许这里的核心建议是单独进行头脑风暴。

So I guess first, there's discover, discuss, decide.

所以我想首先是发现、讨论、决定。

To discover ideas completely independently, basically brainstorms.

完全独立地发现想法，基本上就是集思广益。

You're a big advocate of brainstorming independently, sitting on your own, thinking through ideas.

你是独立头脑风暴的大力倡导者，独立思考，思考想法。

And then bringing people together to discuss all the things they've come up with and especially where they disagree.

然后将人们聚集在一起讨论他们提出的所有想法，特别是他们不同意的地方。

And then ideally having one person that makes a decision once she or he has taken all the input.

理想情况下，有一个人在接受所有意见后做出决定。

Annie Duke: Yeah, you can have one person.

安妮·杜克：是的，你可以有一个人。

I mean, I work with people where it's like a partnership and there's six people who are going to vote, but they still do it independently.

我的意思是，我和一些人一起工作，就像是一种伙伴关系，有六个人要投票，但他们仍然独立投票。

They go to a forum.

他们去论坛。

So I don't know what your vote is.

所以我不知道你的投票是什么。

And all six people don't have to agree.

而且六个人不必全部同意。

I mean, I just think it's really important that once you get above an end of one, you shouldn't necessarily expect the people to agree, which I think is just really important.

我的意思是，我只是认为，一旦你达到了目标，你就不必指望人们会同意，这一点非常重要，我认为这非常重要。

And this is good for more than just brainstorming.

这不仅仅是头脑风暴的好处。

It's for forecasting, any kind of project planning, budgeting.

它用于预测、任何类型的项目规划、预算。

Yeah, I mean, we do this, for example, at First Round, we have a structured forum for evaluating a company in terms of whether you should invest in it because there are facts and then there are the way that you model those facts in.

是的，我的意思是，我们这样做，例如，在第一轮，我们有一个结构化的论坛，用于评估一家公司是否应该投资，因为有事实，然后有你对这些事实进行建模的方式。

So it's a lot, what are the investor's opinion of the founder and the product and that kind of thing.

所以很多，投资者对创始人和产品的看法是什么等等。

Annie Duke: And we just have structure around how we're eliciting those opinions, which is really helpful.

安妮·杜克：我们只是制定了如何征求这些意见的结构，这非常有帮助。

The other thing that I'll just add to what you said is that you can actually be in the same room together and still discover information independently.

我要补充的另一件事是，你们实际上可以一起在同一个房间里，但仍然可以独立地发现信息。

So this will happen on the fly all the time where people are talking and they start talking.

因此，当人们在说话并开始说话时，这种情况就会随时发生。

Something comes up, like someone suggests some new feature or something like that, and then people start saying, "Yeah, but that's going to take..." And you go, "Stop.

有些事情出现了，比如有人建议了一些新功能或类似的东西，然后人们开始说，“是的，但这需要……”然后你就说，“停下来。

Okay, everybody take out a piece of paper." So you can still get that same independence on the fly as well as doing it in advance.

好吧，大家拿出一张纸来。”因此，您仍然可以即时或提前获得同样的独立性。

But yes, that was a very nice summary.

但是，是的，这是一个非常好的总结。

Lenny Rachitsky: If this is just the one thing people take away from this conversation already, I think that could have a big impact.

Lenny Rachitsky：如果这只是人们从这次谈话中学到的一件事，我认为这可能会产生很大的影响。

Speaking of First Round, one, we actually just had Todd Jackson on the podcast talking about-

说到第一轮，我们实际上刚刚让托德·杰克逊在播客上谈论-

Lenny Rachitsky: ...

莱尼·拉奇茨基：……

love Todd, talking about product market fit.

爱托德，谈论产品市场契合度。

That episode will have come out before this episode.

该集将在本集之前发布。

Also, so I asked Brett Berson, your colleague at First Round, what to ask you.

另外，我问你在 First Round 的同事布雷特·伯森 (Brett Berson)，该问你什么。

Lenny Rachitsky: Yeah, yeah.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：是的，是的。

By the way, your title of First Round is amazing, special partner.

顺便说一句，你的第一轮头衔是令人惊叹的、特别的合作伙伴。

I've never seen that before.

我以前从未见过这样的情况。

Annie Duke: I am.

安妮杜克：我是。

It's a title just for me.

这是一个只属于我的标题。

Annie Duke: So I'm interested, I'm interested in what he said you should ask me.

安妮·杜克：所以我很感兴趣，我对他说你应该问我的事情感兴趣。

Lenny Rachitsky: Nothing too spicy, it's along the lines of what you talked about.

Lenny Rachitsky：没什么太辣的，就像你所说的那样。

So you said that you have a very interesting framework for how to think about decision quality in the short term when the outcome is very long term.

所以你说你有一个非常有趣的框架，用于在结果非常长期的情况下如何考虑短期内的决策质量。

For example, investing.

例如，投资。

Also, many decisions we make in business, things you need to decide now that you only find out years from now.

此外，我们在商业中做出的许多决策，都是你现在就需要做出的决定，但几年后你才会发现。

Can you talk about your advice there and your insights here?

您能谈谈您的建议和您的见解吗？

Annie Duke: Oh my gosh, I'm so happy that that's the question that he asked.

安妮·杜克：天哪，我很高兴他问了这个问题。

Annie Duke: Okay, so can I give a tiny bit of background to this?

安妮·杜克：好的，我可以稍微介绍一下背景吗？

Annie Duke: So prior to talking to First Round, I have another client too who, they're amazing, Renegade Partners at Roseanne Wincek and Renata Quintini.

Annie Duke：在与 First Round 交谈之前，我还有另一个客户，他们非常棒，Roseanne Wincek 的 Renegade Partners 和 Renata Quintini。

They're incredible.

他们太不可思议了。

Before finally hooking up with them, and they work at different stages, First Round is C, obviously.

在最终与他们联系之前，他们在不同的阶段工作，第一轮显然是C。

Renegade is more like A B, tiny bit of dabble in C.

Renegade 更像是 A B，稍微涉足了 C。

But before running into them, I talked to quite a few venture firms who are interested in talking to me post-Thinking in Bets having come out, so this would be 2018.

但在遇到他们之前，我与相当多的风险投资公司进行了交谈，他们有兴趣在《Thinking in Bets》问世后与我交谈，所以这将是 2018 年。

And there was a theme, there was a theme across them all.

有一个主题，所有这些都有一个主题。

The first one was, well, the kind of decision-making you're talking about we don't need to do because we just know a good founder when we see one.

第一个是，你所说的那种我们不需要做的决策，因为当我们看到一个好的创始人时，我们就知道了。

So that is a sentence that came out of many people's mouths.

所以这句话是从很多人嘴里说出来的。

And as I just said to you, okay, I have no doubt, but don't you want make that explicit?

正如我刚才对你说的，好吧，我毫不怀疑，但你不想说清楚吗？

Annie Duke: There's all sorts of great things that come from making it explicit, not just in terms of the increase in decision quality in the moment, but it actually allows you to close feedback loops much better.

Annie Duke：将其明确化可以带来各种各样的好处，不仅可以提高当前决策质量，而且实际上可以让您更好地关闭反馈循环。

So that was one thing that I found quite surprising.

所以这是我觉得非常惊讶的一件事。

But the one that I really found very interesting was being told, "Well, what you're talking about doesn't apply because our feedback loops are a decade." And in poker, you got an answer right away.

但我真正发现非常有趣的是，有人告诉我，“好吧，你所说的并不适用，因为我们的反馈循环是十年。”在扑克中，你立刻就会得到答案。

You won or lost the hand right away.

您立即赢得或失去这手牌。

So the way that you're thinking about decision-making doesn't really apply, until I met First Round and then Renegade where they actually heard what I had to say because I gave the same answer to everybody.

因此，你思考决策的方式并不真正适用，直到我遇到了 First Round，然后遇到了 Renegade，他们实际上听到了我不得不说的话，因为我给了每个人相同的答案。

So we'll just put aside that wouldn't you want to make that explicit.

因此，我们将把您不想明确说明的这一点放在一边。

The first thing that I would say is, oh, poker is much noisier than you think because when I win a hand, I have no idea why.

我要说的第一件事是，哦，扑克比你想象的要吵闹得多，因为当我赢了一手牌时，我不知道为什么。

Annie Duke: So I do actually have to wait a long time because I have to play many, many, many hands before I actually know, do I actually have an edge?

Annie Duke：所以我实际上必须等待很长时间，因为我必须玩很多很多牌才能真正知道，我真的有优势吗？

Because I actually don't know very much.

因为我其实知道的也不是很多。

On one hand, for one thing, I almost never see my opponent's card, so I'm left in a dust of uncertainty.

一方面，我几乎从来没有看到对手的牌，所以我陷入了不确定的尘埃中。

But separately from that, the main thing that I said was, how could you possibly think that the feedback loop is 10 years?

但除此之外，我主要说的是，你怎么可能认为反馈循环是10年？

And this is what I think really caught First Round's eye because when I was talking to Josh Kopelman about it, he said, "Well, what do you mean?

我认为这才是真正引起 First Round 注意的地方，因为当我和 Josh Kopelman 谈论这件事时，他说：“嗯，你是什么意思？

We don't get an exit for 10 years." And I said, "Oh, I'm sorry, do you invest?

我们10年内都无法退出。”我说：“哦，对不起，你投资吗？

And then you go to sleep like Rip Van Winkle?

然后你就像瑞普·凡·温克尔那样去睡觉了？

And then you wake up 10 years later and you go, 'Hey, how'd that go?' Or are there all sorts of things that happen in between?" The simplest thing, the simplest thing is does it fund at Series A?

十年后你醒来时会问，‘嘿，怎么样？’还是说这中间发生了各种各样的事情？”最简单的事情，最简单的事情是它是否在 A 轮融资？

Annie Duke: And the little pushback that I would get there is, but we're not investing for Series A.

Annie Duke：我会遇到一点阻力，但我们不会投资 A 轮融资。

And I say, "Well, I know that", but have you ever had a company that exited for more than a billion dollars that did not fund at Series A?

我说，“嗯，我知道这一点”，但是你是否曾经有过一家以超过 10 亿美元退出但没有在 A 轮融资的公司？

And the answer is no. And I'm like, okay.

答案是否定的。我想，好吧。

So it sounds like that's necessary.

所以听起来这是有必要的。

Might not be sufficient, but it's necessary.

可能还不够，但这是必要的。

And it's certainly a signal that is actually more highly correlated with exiting out well than the investment at C.

与 C 的投资相比，这无疑是一个实际上与退出的相关性更高的信号。

And then, oh, right, you have series B.

然后，哦，对了，你有 B 系列。

And that's separate from all the other things that you can look at, like what you talked to Todd Jackson about.

这与你可以看到的所有其他事情是分开的，比如你和托德·杰克逊谈论的事情。

Is it achieving product market fit?

它是否实现了产品市场契合度？

We know that eventually for it to be successful, it's going to have to achieve product market fit, right?

我们知道，最终要取得成功，就必须实现产品市场契合，对吧？

So you can look at what's happening with that, just general things about traction, what's happening with net new ARR, ability to retain top talent churn.

所以你可以看看发生了什么，只是关于牵引力的一般情况，净新ARR发生了什么，留住顶尖人才流失的能力。

Annie Duke: I mean, there's so many different things that you can look at, all of which are things that you know must happen in order for the big thing to happen.

安妮·杜克：我的意思是，你可以看到很多不同的事情，所有这些都是你知道为了让大事发生而必须发生的事情。

Okay, so what that means is that this is the big, I'm going to make a bold statement here.

好吧，这意味着这是一件大事，我要在这里做出一个大胆的声明。

There is no such thing as a long feedback loop.

不存在长反馈循环这样的事情。

You can make a decision about how long the feedback loop is.

您可以决定反馈循环的长度。

That is your choice to live in a long feedback loop, and you can choose to shorten the feedback loop.

那是你选择生活在一个长反馈循环中，你也可以选择缩短反馈循环。

And the way you choose to shorten the feedback loop is to say, what are the things that are necessary but not sufficient?

而你选择缩短反馈循环的方式就是说，哪些东西是必要但不充分的？

That's one thing, for getting a good exit, or what are the things that are correlated with the outcome that I eventually desire?

这是一回事，为了获得良好的退出，或者与我最终想要的结果相关的事情是什么？

And what that means is that when you're at the decision point, right?

这意味着当你处于决策点时，对吗？

Like in First Round's case, I'm going to invest in a company.

就像第一轮的例子一样，我要投资一家公司。

Annie Duke: What you have to understand is that you are making a prediction about how the world is going to unfold, how the future is going to unfold.

安妮·杜克：你必须明白的是，你正在预测世界将如何发展，未来将如何发展。

And those things that you're predicting.

还有你所预测的那些事情。

You can track, and you can track them back to the decision and you can do it pretty darn fast, mind you.

你可以追踪，你可以追踪他们的决定，而且你可以做得非常快，请注意。

I mean, think about being in 2021.

我的意思是，想想 2021 年。

There were companies that were raising in A six months after seed.

有些公司在种子期后六个月就进行了 A 轮融资。

Today, it's a little more 16 months-ish.

今天，还有 16 个月左右的时间。

But even so, let's just say that that was the only thing that you decided to do.

但即便如此，我们只能说这是您决定做的唯一一件事。

I'm going to forecast the probability that this company's going to fund at Series A.

我将预测这家公司获得 A 轮融资的可能性。

And then obviously, those companies start to fund or not fund at Series A and you're finding that out in 16 months.

显然，这些公司开始在 A 轮融资或不融资，16 个月后你就会发现这一点。

Here's my question for you, Lenny.

这是我要问你的问题，莱尼。

Is 16 months shorter than 10 years?

16个月比10年短吗？

Annie Duke: So it's probably why he said to ask me that question because I just really do.

安妮·杜克：所以这可能就是他说要问我这个问题的原因，因为我确实这么做了。

I mean, I have a very strong opinion about this.

我的意思是，我对此有非常强烈的看法。

The feedback loop is as long as you choose it to be.

反馈循环的长度由您选择。

And if I take that back to some of the things that I heard early on when I was talking to people, what I would say is that I think that there is a certain amount of psychological safety in allowing the feedback loop to stay long because really of two main factors.

如果我回顾一下我早期与人们交谈时听到的一些事情，我想说的是，我认为允许反馈循环保持较长时间具有一定的心理安全性，这实际上有两个主要因素。

One is that, look, if I was early into Uber and now I'm a celebrity investor or something, I don't really want to know if I'm good or not.

一是，看，如果我很早就进入 Uber，现在我是名人投资者或其他什么，我真的不想知道我是否优秀。

Do I?

我是吗？

Right?

正确的？

I don't really want the world to know that.

我真的不想让全世界都知道这一点。

I mean, if I'm good, that's great.

我的意思是，如果我很好，那就太好了。

But it feels like they already believe that I'm good because I happen to be early into Uber.

但感觉他们已经相信我很优秀，因为我碰巧进入 Uber 较早。

Annie Duke: So since people already think I'm good, I'm just losing to that decision, psychologically speaking.

安妮·杜克：既然人们已经认为我很好，从心理上来说，我只是输给了这个决定。

Not investment quality speaking, but psychologically speaking.

不是投资质量上的，而是心理上的。

Okay, so here's the problem though.

好吧，问题就在这里。

Why was I early into Uber?

为什么我很早就进入了 Uber？

Did I have an insight into a real pain point in a developing market, blah, blah, blah?

我是否洞察了发展中市场的真正痛点？等等？

Or did my buddy start Uber and I was like, "Sure, I'll give you some money?" Right?

或者是我的朋友创办了 Uber，我当时就想，“当然，我会给你一些钱？”正确的？

I mean, obviously, I'm talking about the extremes here, but we don't actually know what the decision quality was, right?

我的意思是，显然，我在这里谈论的是极端情况，但我们实际上并不知道决策质量是什么，对吧？

All we know is that you had a good result and given that you had a good result and people think very highly of you, what are you going to gain?

我们只知道你取得了一个好成绩，既然你取得了好成绩，人们对你评价很高，你会得到什么？

Right?

正确的？

So it's so nice to just let that feedback loop sit there and allow people to have the opinion of you.

因此，让反馈循环留在那里并让人们对你发表意见真是太好了。

That is really nice, feels good, right?

这真的很好，感觉很好，对吧？

And not actually find out the answer because why would I want to?

实际上并没有找出答案，因为我为什么要这么做？

Annie Duke: Unless you're really super focused on decision quality, then you would want to do that.

Annie Duke：除非您真的非常注重决策质量，否则您会想要这样做。

So that's part of the psychological safety.

所以这是心理安全的一部分。

And what that goes to is, the real core of it is that it's very, very difficult for human beings to deal with feeling wrong in the moment, even if it helps them in the long run.

其真正的核心是，人类很难处理当下的错误感觉，即使从长远来看这对他们有帮助。

It's just hard.

这只是很难。

And the tighter the feedback loop, the more that you risk finding out you are wrong in the short run.

反馈循环越紧密，您在短期内发现自己错误的风险就越大。

Now that helps you to learn and improve your decision-making if you're focused on it and you're good at it, right?

现在，如果您专注于它并且擅长它，那么这可以帮助您学习和改进您的决策，对吗？

That's going to help you.

这会对你有帮助。

And then in the long run, you're actually going to do better.

从长远来看，你实际上会做得更好。

But human beings are notoriously good at trading off the long run just to feel good in the short run.

但众所周知，人类善于牺牲长期利益来换取短期的良好感觉。

That's why we're all eating chocolate and cupcakes and stuff that we know is bad for us because it feels good.

这就是为什么我们都吃巧克力和纸杯蛋糕以及我们知道对我们有害的东西，因为它们感觉很好。

Annie Duke: And so much of our decision-making is trying to advance this positive self-narrative and the idea that yeah, we're going to have a more positive narrative ourselves in five years if we do some stuff.

安妮·杜克：我们的大部分决策都是试图推进这种积极的自我叙述，以及这样的想法：是的，如果我们做一些事情，我们将在五年内拥有更积极的叙述。

Most of us are like, "No, I don't really want to make that trade.

我们大多数人都会说，“不，我真的不想做那笔交易。

I'd rather just feel good now", and I can use the fact that we are living in power law, under the influence of power law.

我宁愿现在感觉良好”，我可以利用我们生活在幂律中、受幂律影响的事实。

I can use that to just confirm a lot of things that I wish to believe that are true of me.

我可以用它来确认很多我希望相信的事情对我来说是真实的。

And if you take that away from me and you take the uncertainty away from me, it's going to be really hard.

如果你把它从我身边拿走，你把不确定性从我身上拿走，那将会非常困难。

And I will tell you that's what I love about both Renegade and First Round is that they're just like, I want to know.

我会告诉你，这就是我喜欢 Renegade 和 First Round 的原因，因为它们就像，我想知道。

It would be such a horror for me to think that I was making good decisions when I actually wasn't.

如果我认为自己做出了正确的决定，而实际上却没有，那真是太可怕了。

And that's what really matters to me and I think that it's just so special.

这对我来说才是真正重要的，我认为它是如此特别。

Lenny Rachitsky: Hearing all this makes me want to be an LP in First Round.

Lenny Rachitsky：听到这一切让我想成为第一轮的 LP。

Not that they would let me in there, but just knowing that you're in there futzing with everything and the way they're thinking is really inspiring.

并不是说他们会让我进去，但只要知道你在那里摆弄一切以及他们的思维方式就真的很鼓舞人心。

I'm curious if you could share an example of anything that they tweaked as a result of this analysis that you did and how they evaluate.

我很好奇您是否可以分享一个示例，说明他们根据您所做的分析以及他们如何评估而调整的任何内容。

Annie Duke: Well, first of all, let me just say they didn't really record a lot about their decisions when I first came in.

安妮·杜克：嗯，首先，我想说的是，当我第一次进来时，他们并没有真正记录很多关于他们的决定。

They voted and they had a record of the vote so they knew who said yes and who said no, but they didn't have a lot of other information.

他们投票并有投票记录，因此他们知道谁同意、谁反对，但他们没有很多其他信息。

So the first thing that happened was just that.

所以发生的第一件事就是这样。

Okay, what do we really think is the way that you would model whether you should invest or not invest in?

好的，我们真正认为您应该投资或不投资的建模方式是什么？

Very broadly, you would say you're reading the market, the team, the founder, the product broadly.

从广义上讲，你会说你正在广泛地阅读市场、团队、创始人和产品。

We're going to make sure that those opinions aren't just like it's good or it's bad, but it's on a scale of one to seven so that we can actually get some precision and some spread among the partners in terms of, say, strength of market.

我们将确保这些意见不仅是好是坏，而且是在 1 到 7 的范围内，以便我们实际上可以在市场强度等方面获得一些精确度并在合作伙伴之间进行传播。

We're going to make sure that we have shared definitions of those things, which you'd be surprised people don't.

我们将确保我们对这些事物拥有共同的定义，你会惊讶于人们没有这样做。

Annie Duke: So when I am thinking about market and market quality, I might be thinking about something very different than you.

安妮·杜克：所以，当我考虑市场和市场质量时，我可能会考虑与您非常不同的事情。

So we want to make sure that we have a shared definition of that, and that's reflected in something that we would call mediating judgments, which are judgments that you make related to market prior to actually judging what you think of the market in general.

因此，我们希望确保我们对此有一个共同的定义，这反映在我们所说的中介判断中，这是您在实际判断您对市场总体看法之前做出的与市场相关的判断。

So you could think of something like competitive landscape, so you would judge that.

所以你可以想到竞争格局之类的东西，这样你就会做出判断。

So that turns into what these mediating judgments are, which is basically an implied definition.

这就变成了这些中介判断，这基本上是一个隐含的定义。

Annie Duke: So you create that, and then you also think about what are the forecasts that are important.

安妮·杜克：所以你创建了它，然后你还考虑了哪些预测是重要的。

One thing that you already know is you're going to forecast the probability the company funds at Series A.

您已经知道的一件事是您将预测该公司在 A 轮融资的可能性。

So that was a huge change, just a very different way of making decisions.

所以这是一个巨大的变化，只是一种非常不同的决策方式。

What we've been able to do with that now because I've been there for five years is we now can actually look, say the partnership as a whole, and look at these ratings that they're making of the component pieces of parts of how they're modeling, like what makes a good investment, these forecasts that they're making.

我们现在能够做的事情是，因为我在那里已经五年了，我们现在实际上可以看一下整个合作伙伴关系，看看他们对他们的建模方式的各个组成部分所做的评级，比如什么是好的投资，他们正在做出的这些预测。

Annie Duke: And we actually know how these companies have now unfolded.

安妮·杜克：我们实际上知道这些公司现在是如何发展的。

So in the simplest sense, we know whether hundreds of companies have funded at Series A or not.

因此，从最简单的意义上来说，我们知道是否有数百家公司获得了 A 轮融资。

And now, we can actually look and say, how good are the partners at actually forecasting this thing?

现在，我们实际上可以看看并说，合作伙伴在实际预测这件事方面有多好？

Right?

正确的？

Are they random?

它们是随机的吗？

Are they better than random?

它们比随机的更好吗？

And we actually know that and we can feed that back to them so that they can understand their own accuracy around these pieces of the decision because the fact is that whatever a seed investor says to you, whether that company is going to fund at Series A is part of their decision.

我们实际上知道这一点，并且我们可以将其反馈给他们，以便他们能够了解自己在这些决策方面的准确性，因为事实是，无论种子投资者对你说什么，该公司是否会在 A 轮融资都是他们决策的一部分。

It's included in the decision.

它包含在决定中。

So they're making that forecast whether they make the forecast explicitly or not.

因此，无论他们是否明确做出预测，他们都会做出预测。

So what we're saying over at First Round is let's make it explicit because you're doing it implicitly anyway, and then we can actually start to look at your accuracy.

因此，我们在第一轮要说的是，让我们将其明确化，因为无论如何您都在隐式地执行此操作，然后我们实际上可以开始查看您的准确性。

Annie Duke: We can now feed that back to you and let you know how accurate you are, which will then help you to become more accurate, right?

Annie Duke：我们现在可以将其反馈给您，让您知道您的准确度，这将帮助您变得更加准确，对吗？

We can also look, because we know in any given vintage what are the best companies or what are the worst companies.

我们还可以看看，因为我们知道在任何特定年份什么是最好的公司或什么是最差的公司。

Remember, we're having people do these ratings on a scale of one to seven of say the quality of the market, and we can look across the partnership and say, "Look, Lenny, when you think the market is great, how does that map onto how well the company is doing in the future?

请记住，我们让人们按照市场质量的 1 到 7 的等级进行这些评级，我们可以审视整个合作伙伴关系并说：“看，莱尼，当你认为市场很棒时，这与公司未来的表现有何关系？

When you say the market is terrible, how well does that map onto how that company is doing, how that company ends up doing in the future?" And I can come to you and I can say, "Oh, Lenny, by the way, your judgments about market are amazing."

当你说市场很糟糕时，这与该公司的表现以及该公司未来的表现有何关系？”我可以来找你，我可以说，“哦，莱尼，顺便说一句，你对市场的判断是惊人的。”

Annie Duke: You know a good market when you see one and it's really mapping on in a great way onto how that company unfolds, but you're not so great with founder, or maybe you're great across the board, or maybe you're not.

安妮·杜克（Annie Duke）：当你看到一个市场时，你就知道一个好的市场，它确实以一种很好的方式映射到该公司的发展方式，但你对创始人的了解不是那么好，或者也许你在各个方面都很棒，或者也许不是。

So we can now start to give people, we can give the partners insight into their own decision-making, not only to allow them to improve the decision-making, but also to allow them to understand not to over index on certain things that maybe aren't as predictive as an example for them.

所以我们现在可以开始让人们、我们可以让合作伙伴深入了解他们自己的决策，不仅让他们改进决策，而且让他们明白不要过度索引某些可能不像他们的例子那样有预测性的事情。

We also can change the rubric based on the evidence now.

我们现在还可以根据证据更改标题。

Annie Duke: So the first version of the rubric is always taking the intuitions of the partners and making those explicit, but then we can start to loop those back together and understand, well, maybe this thing that the partners thought was important actually isn't predictive across any partner.

安妮·杜克：因此，该标题的第一个版本总是采用合作伙伴的直觉并将其明确化，但随后我们可以开始将它们重新组合在一起并理解，好吧，也许合作伙伴认为重要的事情实际上并不能预测任何合作伙伴。

For example, we can start to develop the rubric based on the data.

例如，我们可以开始根据数据制定评分标准。

These were all things that weren't possible because prior to that, if I had come in and said, "Well, let's look at decision quality", how would I do that?

这些都是不可能的，因为在此之前，如果我进来并说：“好吧，让我们看看决策质量”，我会怎么做？

I mean, I have no idea why people were...

我的意思是，我不知道为什么人们...

I just know whether they said yes or no. And so it's very difficult to them to start to do some really serious refining of the decisions if I don't have that information.

我只知道他们说是还是不是。因此，如果我没有这些信息，他们就很难开始对决策进行一些真正认真的改进。

Lenny Rachitsky: I desperately want to know which partner it makes the best decisions.

Lenny Rachitsky：我非常想知道哪个合作伙伴做出了最好的决定。

I know you're not going to share them.

我知道你不会分享它们。

Annie Duke: No, I'm not going to.

安妮·杜克：不，我不会。

The partnership as a whole is excellent as we know.

据我们所知，整个合作伙伴关系非常好。

And this is what I will tell you is that all partners have strengths and all partners have weaknesses, and they're not perfectly overlapping, which is wonderful, right?

这就是我要告诉你的是，所有的合作伙伴都有优点，所有的合作伙伴都有缺点，而且它们并不完全重叠，这很棒，对吧？

I mean, that's one of the things.

我的意思是，这是其中一件事。

It's like what's really wonderful, and I think it shows the power of why would you have more than one person having input into a decision, is some people are very strong on rating a particular aspect of market, or some people are very strong on rating a particular aspect of the founder.

这就像真正美妙的事情，我认为它显示了为什么会有不止一个人参与决策的力量，是有些人对市场的某一特定方面的评级非常强烈，或者有些人对创始人的某一特定方面的评级非常强烈。

There's overlap and then there's things where Todd is uniquely great at something, or Josh is uniquely great at something, or Bill is uniquely great at something.

存在重叠，然后托德在某方面特别擅长，或者乔什在某方面特别擅长，或者比尔在某方面特别擅长。

So that's a wonderful thing about it is that everybody has strengths and everybody has weaknesses and they're not perfectly overlapping.

所以这是一个很棒的事情，每个人都有优点，每个人都有缺点，而且它们并不完全重叠。

So this is where you can see getting that spread of opinions and really understanding, breaking that decision down into its component parts really shows you the value of diverse opinions as input into a decision.

因此，在这里您可以看到意见的传播和真正的理解，将决策分解为各个组成部分，真正向您展示了不同意见作为决策输入的价值。

Lenny Rachitsky: I could talk about this thread forever.

Lenny Rachitsky：我可以永远谈论这个话题。

Maybe let me just ask one more question just because I'm super curious.

也许让我再问一个问题只是因为我很好奇。

Is there anything surprising that stands out, that came out of this analysis so far?

到目前为止，这项分析有什么令人惊讶的地方吗？

Just like, oh wow, maybe market isn't as important as we thought or this person is amazing at-

就像，哦，哇，也许市场并不像我们想象的那么重要，或者这个人很擅长——

Annie Duke: Yes.

安妮·杜克：是的。

So I think just generally speaking, when you're creating the initial decision rubric, there are things that people are really pounding the table about that they think is especially important in making a decision.

所以我认为一般来说，当你创建最初的决策标题时，人们确实在讨论一些他们认为对做出决定特别重要的事情。

And one of the things that we found is that sometimes their intuition was absolutely right.

我们发现的一件事是，有时他们的直觉是绝对正确的。

The thing that they were pounding the table about is incredibly predictive, not just for them but other partners.

他们所讨论的事情具有令人难以置信的预测性，不仅对他们而言，对其他合作伙伴也是如此。

But sometimes it's not at all predictive, and these are equal table-pounding situations.

但有时它根本无法预测，而且这些都是同样令人震惊的情况。

So let's say you're pounding the table about something, sometimes the thing you're pounding at the table about is predictive for you and for all the other partners that it's actually quite predictive about how the company does.

假设你正在讨论某件事，有时你在讨论的事情对你和所有其他合作伙伴来说是有预测性的，它实际上可以很好地预测公司的表现。

But sometimes when you're really pounding the table about something, it's not just that it's not predictive for the other partners, it's not predictive for you.

但有时，当你真的就某件事争论不休时，这不仅对其他合作伙伴没有预测作用，对你也没有预测作用。

Annie Duke: And I think that what's really important to understand about this, and this is why it's so incredibly necessary in improving decision quality to take what's implicit and make it explicit, is that our intuition is sometimes right and sometimes wrong.

安妮·杜克：我认为理解这一点真正重要的是，我们的直觉有时是正确的，有时是错误的，这就是为什么在提高决策质量方面非常有必要将隐含的内容变得明确。

It's not that intuition is crap and your intuition is just completely wrong, I mean obviously, that can't be true.

这并不是说直觉是垃圾，你的直觉是完全错误的，我的意思是显然，这不可能是真的。

We would die, right?

我们会死，对吧？

So your intuition is sometimes right, but it's also sometimes wrong.

所以你的直觉有时是对的，但有时也是错的。

And if you don't make it explicit, then you don't get to find out when it's wrong.

如果你不明确地表达出来，那么你就无法发现它何时是错误的。

Annie Duke: You don't get to find out when it's off base, and that's a disaster.

安妮·杜克：你无法发现它何时偏离基地，那是一场灾难。

So that's the thing that I think is really interesting is that you have equal vehement and confidence that this particular factor is really important.

因此，我认为真正有趣的是，您对这个特定因素非常重要有同样的热情和信心。

And sometimes it is and sometimes it isn't.

有时是，有时不是。

And it's so surprising because we're talking about people who are true experts who are great, and I think that we all just have intuition about intuition, right?

这太令人惊讶了，因为我们谈论的是真正的专家，他们是伟大的，而且我认为我们都有关于直觉的直觉，对吗？

You just intuit that if they're so amazing, clearly their intuition about what's important would have to be good, but not necessarily.

你只是凭直觉知道，如果他们如此出色，那么显然他们对重要事物的直觉一定很好，但不一定。

That's the thing, not necessarily.

事情就是这样，不一定。

Yeah, I think that was probably the most exciting thing.

是的，我认为这可能是最令人兴奋的事情。

Lenny Rachitsky: Keeping it mysterious, but I still appreciate you sharing.

Lenny Rachitsky：保持神秘，但我仍然感谢你的分享。

Annie Duke: Well, I have to keep it mysterious.

安妮·杜克：嗯，我必须保持神秘。

Annie Duke: I can't give away the trade secrets.

安妮·杜克：我不能泄露商业秘密。

Lenny Rachitsky: I wanted to touch on a different framework that I've heard a lot of companies actually using, and something that comes up in product a lot is this idea of pre-mortems, which is essentially think ahead of time what might go wrong.

Lenny Rachitsky：我想谈谈一个不同的框架，我听说很多公司实际上都在使用这个框架，产品中经常出现的就是事前分析的想法，本质上是提前思考可能会出现问题的地方。

Can you talk about this?

你能谈谈这个吗？

Because I think that it's something that's easy to implement, really powerful, and a lot of people are actually doing this.

因为我认为它很容易实现，非常强大，而且很多人实际上正在这样做。

Annie Duke: Yes, okay.

安妮·杜克：是的，好的。

So a pre-mortem is great, but only if you attach a pre-commitment with it.

因此，事前剖析是很好的选择，但前提是您必须附上预先承诺。

So I just want to be super clear about that.

所以我只想说得非常清楚。

What you find with pre-mortems, this actually work.

你在事前剖析中发现，这实际上是有效的。

I actually did this work with Maurice Schweitzer and Linnea Gandhi, who are both at Penn.

实际上，我与宾夕法尼亚大学的莫里斯·史怀哲和林尼·甘地一起完成了这项工作。

Then when you have people do pre-mortems, it generally doesn't actually change their plan very much or it changed their behavior.

然后，当你让人们进行事前剖析时，通常实际上不会改变他们的计划或改变他们的行为。

So I think that we have the feeling that if you do a pre-mortem and you think what are the ways that things might go wrong, that that's going to change your plan, but probably not unless you're specifically using it for that purpose and you say, "Okay, we're going to do this, but let's think about how we might change our plan in light of this information." But I think what's actually more important than that is what a pre-mortem allows you to do is to set up kill criteria.

因此，我认为我们有一种感觉，如果你进行事前剖析，并且你认为事情可能会出错的方式是什么，那么这将改变你的计划，但可能不会，除非你专门将其用于该目的，并且你说：“好吧，我们将这样做，但让我们考虑如何根据这些信息改变我们的计划。”但我认为实际上比这更重要的是事前剖析允许你设置杀死标准。

Annie Duke: So kill criteria are just a set of signals that you might see that would tell you that it's time to pivot or stop because once we actually launch something, we're very, very slow to decide to quit.

安妮·杜克：因此，杀戮标准只是你可能会看到的一组信号，这些信号会告诉你是时候转向或停止了，因为一旦我们真正推出某些东西，我们就非常非常缓慢地决定退出。

I'm sure that everybody has felt that way before.

我相信每个人都曾有过这样的感受。

Things go on way too long, even like they're over budget and you've blown the timeline.

事情持续的时间太长，甚至超出了预算，而且你已经超出了时间表。

And when you finally shut it down, you realize you should have done it a lot earlier.

当你最终关闭它时，你意识到你应该早点做。

And this is true across the board because of a variety of biases.

由于存在各种偏见，这在所有方面都是如此。

The most well-known, and probably the biggest influence is something called sunk cost, which is that feeling, but then I'll have wasted all the time and effort that I've put into this already.

最著名的，也可能是最大的影响是所谓的沉没成本，就是这种感觉，但那样我就浪费了我已经投入于此的所有时间和精力。

So it's taking into account what you've put in in the past and deciding whether to continue on in the future.

因此，它会考虑您过去的投入并决定未来是否继续。

So what we want to do is actually just get better at that thing.

所以我们想做的实际上就是在这件事上做得更好。

So understanding that when you've gotten to the pre-mortem process, you probably are going to launch it, like it's probably going to be the case.

因此，要明白，当您进入事前剖析过程时，您可能会启动它，就像情况可能会如此一样。

Annie Duke: Use the pre-mortem to set up kill criteria.

安妮·杜克：使用验尸来设置杀戮标准。

So I'll give you an example from a sales team that I worked with.

因此，我将举一个我曾合作过的销售团队的例子。

Basically, I sent them out a prompt, all the IC is a prompt that was, imagine that you got a lead through an RFP or RFI and you worked on it for six months.

基本上，我向他们发出了一个提示，所有 IC 都是一个提示，想象一下，您通过 RFP 或 RFI 获得了线索，并且您为此工作了六个月。

And now, it's six months later and the deal is dead.

现在，六个月过去了，这笔交易已经结束了。

Looking back, you realized they were early signals that that was going to be the case, what were they.

回想起来，你意识到它们是事情将会发生的早期信号，它们是什么。

So this is a pre-mortem.

所以这是一个预验。

What are the things that you saw that would tell you that this was going to go south?

你所看到的哪些事情会告诉你事情将会向南发展？

And they came up with all sorts of ideas.

他们想出了各种各样的想法。

Notice this doesn't mean they're not going to start off pursuing the lead, right?

请注意，这并不意味着他们不会开始追赶领先地位，对吧？

But they saw, they came up with all sorts of signals.

但他们看到了，他们提出了各种各样的信号。

So I'll just give you three of them.

所以我只给你其中三个。

Annie Duke: The RFP RFI was clearly written with a competitor in mind, so they felt that was a very bad signal that was probably going to go badly.

Annie Duke：RFP RFI 显然是在考虑竞争对手的情况下编写的，因此他们认为这是一个非常糟糕的信号，可能会变得很糟糕。

Another one was the customer didn't want to demo, they only wanted to talk about price.

另一种是客户不想演示，只想谈价格。

Obviously, that's quite bad.

显然，这很糟糕。

And another one was after the first few meetings, they couldn't get a decision maker in the room, right?

另一个问题是在最初的几次会议之后，他们无法在房间里找到决策者，对吗？

So it was a much longer list than this, but those are three.

所以这个列表比这个长得多，但只有三个。

So for each of those, that now becomes a kill criteria if I see this thing and now you attach an action with it.

因此，对于其中的每一个，如果我看到这个东西并且现在你附加一个动作，那么现在就成为杀死标准。

So in the case of price, they actually just said, "We should kill it." If they literally don't want to demo and they're only asking about price, they're just trying to beat up somebody else on price like we're a box-checking exercise.

因此，在价格方面，他们实际上只是说，“我们应该取消它。”如果他们真的不想演示并且只询问价格，那么他们只是想在价格上击败其他人，就像我们在进行检查练习一样。

So there, they just said, "We're going to kill it.

所以他们只是说：“我们要杀掉它。

We're not going to pursue the deal anymore."

我们不会再追求这笔交易了。”

Annie Duke: So this is great because salespeople will pursue deals forever and leadership is like, "Well, why did you stop pursuing that deal?" And they get in trouble for it.

安妮·杜克：所以这很棒，因为销售人员将永远追求交易，而领导层会说，“那么，你为什么停止追求这笔交易？”他们因此而陷入麻烦。

So this is going to help with that problem, right?

所以这将有助于解决这个问题，对吧？

In the case of the RFP RFI was written with a competitor in mind, they have an action associated with that as well, which is ask them directly if they're working with a competitor and how far down the road they are, depending on the answer you would kill or pursue.

如果 RFP RFI 是在考虑竞争对手的情况下编写的，那么他们也有与之相关的行动，即直接询问他们是否正在与竞争对手合作以及他们的进展有多远，具体取决于您想要杀死或追求的答案。

In the case of we couldn't get a decision maker in the room, offer up executive alignment at the next meeting.

如果我们无法在房间里找到决策者，请在下次会议上提出高管协调。

And if they say sure, great.

如果他们说当然，那就太好了。

And if they say no, kill.

如果他们拒绝，那就杀掉。

Annie Duke: So that's actually what I feel is the best use of a pre-mortem is to say, I'm going to try to figure out what those signals are along the way that things are going badly.

安妮·杜克：实际上，我认为事前剖析的最佳用途就是，我将尝试找出事情进展不顺利的过程中的那些信号。

And now instead of just hoping that when I see those signals, I actually act rationally, which is a hope that it will not come true.

现在，我不再只是希望当我看到这些信号时，我实际上会理性地行动，这是希望它不会实现。

That's why there's many people who climb Everest in the middle of a blizzard, even though they shouldn't be doing that.

这就是为什么有很多人在暴风雪中攀登珠穆朗玛峰，尽管他们不应该这样做。

Use the pre-mortem to now create structure around those signals that you've spotted and commit to actions that you're going to take if you see those signals.

现在，使用事前分析来围绕您发现的信号创建结构，并承诺在看到这些信号时将采取的行动。

And I think that's the best use of a pre-mortem.

我认为这是事前剖析的最佳用途。

Lenny Rachitsky: That's really helpful.

Lenny Rachitsky：这真的很有帮助。

And it's interesting how many of your examples come back to just of a framework that you often talk about, which is make it explicit what is implicit.

有趣的是，您的许多示例都回到了您经常谈论的框架，该框架使隐含的内容变得明确。

There's another example that the First Round example is a great example of that where it's just, here's all our assumptions, they just make them actually explicit and just shows how much .

还有另一个例子，第一轮的例子就是一个很好的例子，这就是我们所有的假设，它们只是让它们实际上变得明确，并且只是显示了多少。

Annie Duke: Right, then you can examine them.

安妮·杜克：好的，那你可以检查一下。

You can examine them, people can discuss them, you can figure out if they're wrong or right or whatever.

你可以检查它们，人们可以讨论它们，你可以弄清楚它们是错是对还是其他什么。

It's like, I want to be very clear, I'm not anti your gut or your intuition.

就像，我想非常清楚地表明，我并不反对你的直觉或直觉。

I think it's probably sometimes pretty good.

我想有时候这可能还不错。

I just want you to make it explicit, that's all.

我只是想让你说清楚，仅此而已。

Lenny Rachitsky: Okay.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：好的。

So we didn't have time to get into quitting, which is your more recent book.

所以我们没有时间去戒烟，这是你最近的书。

Maybe we'll do a follow-up episode specifically thinking about quitting, but let me just ask-

也许我们会制作一集专门讨论戒烟的后续剧集，但让我问一下——

Annie Duke: It's my fault because my answers are long.

安妮·杜克：这是我的错，因为我的答案很长。

Lenny Rachitsky: No apology is necessary.

Lenny Rachitsky：没有必要道歉。

We'll have plenty of time in the future, hopefully.

希望未来我们还有充足的时间。

Well, let me just ask one question.

好吧，让我问一个问题。

I found this one quote from you where you said you should assume that if you're thinking about quitting, it's already probably past the time that you should have quit.

我发现了你的一句话，你说你应该假设，如果你正在考虑戒烟，那么很可能已经过了你应该戒烟的时间了。

Do you still believe that?

你还相信吗？

Is that generally a good rule of thumb?

这通常是一个好的经验法则吗？

And just any takeaway, tip, lesson on quitting as our one question on quitting?

还有关于戒烟的任何外卖、提示、教训作为我们关于戒烟的唯一问题吗？

Annie Duke: So the data is pretty strong that by the time you quit, it's probably long after the .

安妮·杜克：所以数据非常有力，当你戒烟时，可能已经过了很长一段时间了。

And it's really just because, look, when we start things, we're starting things under difficult circumstances, which come from the uncertainty of the decision to start something.

这实际上只是因为，看，当我们开始做事时，我们是在困难的情况下开始做事的，而这种情况来自于开始做某事的决定的不确定性。

So when we start something, luck is going to have an influence on the outcome, which obviously, we have no control over because luck isn't in our control.

因此，当我们开始做某事时，运气就会对结果产生影响，显然，我们无法控制这一点，因为运气不在我们的控制范围内。

And then there's also hidden information.

然后还有隐藏信息。

So what happens is that after the fact, we know that we're going to learn new information and it can make it very hard to start things because we want to be more sure than we actually need to be.

因此，事后发生的情况是，我们知道我们将学习新信息，这会使开始工作变得非常困难，因为我们想要比实际需要的更加确定。

It's why Bezos has the 70% role to try to roll people back and be willing to accept that uncertainty in the starting decision.

这就是为什么贝索斯有 70% 的角色试图让人们倒退并愿意接受开始决策中的不确定性。

Now the good news is that when you learn that new stuff and the new stuff that you learn is, "Ooh, if I had known this, I wouldn't have started it", you have the option to quit generally.

现在的好消息是，当你学到新东西时，你学到的新东西是，“哦，如果我知道这个，我就不会开始了”，你通常可以选择退出。

Annie Duke: So that's the good news.

安妮·杜克：这是个好消息。

The bad news is that the same difficulties that apply to the decision to start apply to the decision to stop.

坏消息是，做出开始的决定时遇到的困难同样适用于停止的决定。

In other words, we're making that decision under uncertainty as well.

换句话说，我们也是在不确定的情况下做出这个决定的。

So we're not going to know for sure whether it would've turned out well or poorly unless we continue to do the thing that we already started.

因此，除非我们继续做我们已经开始的事情，否则我们无法确定结果是好是坏。

And we don't like to walk away from things unless we know for sure.

除非我们确实知道，否则我们不喜欢放弃事情。

So as Richard Thaler put it, most people won't quit until it actually isn't a decision.

因此，正如理查德·塞勒所说，大多数人不会放弃，直到它实际上不是一个决定。

In other words, the whole thing is blown up, the startup has no money, or you're up on Everest and the blizzard is literally upon you and you're stuck in it.

换句话说，整个事情都被炸毁了，初创公司没有钱，或者你在珠穆朗玛峰上，暴风雪确实向你袭来，你被困在其中。

Or I think as he said, until you've fallen in the crevasse already, then you'll make the decision to quit because then you know how it was really bad.

或者我认为正如他所说，直到你已经陷入裂缝，然后你才会做出退出的决定，因为那时你就会知道事情有多糟糕。

So people generally, for example, don't quit their jobs until they feel they have no other choice or relationships or projects or products that they're developing, it all applies because we want to know for sure.

因此，例如，人们通常不会辞去工作，直到他们觉得自己没有其他选择或他们正在开发的关系、项目或产品，这一切都适用，因为我们想确定。

Annie Duke: And then on top of that is the fact that there is this issue of sunk cost, which is when we walk away, we feel like we'll have wasted everything that we've already put into what we're doing.

安妮·杜克：最重要的是，存在沉没成本的问题，即当我们离开时，我们感觉我们已经浪费了我们已经投入到正在做的事情中的一切。

But of course, waste is a prospective problem, not a retrospective one, even if we treat it like a retrospective one because it's the prospective one.

当然，浪费是一个前瞻性问题，而不是一个回顾性问题，即使我们把它当作一个回顾性问题来对待，因为它是一个前瞻性问题。

Well, if you wouldn't start this today, then that means that everything that you're putting into this going forward is the actual waste, right?

好吧，如果你今天不开始，那就意味着你今后投入的一切都是真正的浪费，对吧？

But we do that all the time.

但我们一直这样做。

We go forward with things that we ought not to be going forward with because we're trying to protect the resources that we've already sunk into it in the past.

我们继续做那些我们不应该做的事情，因为我们试图保护我们过去已经投入的资源。

Then there's other issues that have to do with, for example, endowment, the ownership over the things that we've built.

还有其他与我们所建造的东西的所有权有关的问题。

This is particularly bad in product because we're building things.

这在产品中尤其糟糕，因为我们正在构建东西。

Annie Duke: And once we build things, we own them.

安妮·杜克：一旦我们建造了东西，我们就拥有它们。

And once we own them, we don't want to give them up and we actually value them more highly than identical things that we don't own.

一旦我们拥有它们，我们就不想放弃它们，而且我们实际上比我们不拥有的相同东西更看重它们。

And then there's issues of internal and external validity, which is really just a fancy way to say your identity.

然后还有内部和外部有效性的问题，这实际上只是表达你的身份的一种奇特方式。

How do other people view you?

其他人如何看待你？

How do you view yourself?

你如何看待自己？

Do you feel like you failed?

你觉得自己失败了吗？

And what that means is that by the time, there's so many biases against stopping that by the time you're actually even thinking about quitting, it's probably already past the time that you ought to have quit.

这意味着，到了那时，有太多反对戒烟的偏见，以至于当你真正考虑戒烟时，可能已经过了你应该戒烟的时间了。

But we'll still continue on until we know for sure we didn't have any choice because here's the thing.

但我们仍然会继续下去，直到我们确定我们别无选择，因为事情就是这样。

When you walk away from something and someone's like, "Hey, why'd you stop that?" And you're like, "Oh, I had no choice" and you tell them everything that went wrong and, nobody's going to question you.

当你离开某件事时，有人会问：“嘿，你为什么要阻止它？”你会说，“哦，我别无选择”，然后你告诉他们所有出错的事情，没有人会质疑你。

Annie Duke: They're going to be like, "Oh, well, it sounds like you put in your best effort." But if you walk away early, people are like, "What?" So just quickly, I'll tell you I think just one of the best stories of this that I've got in my pocket here.

安妮·杜克：他们会说，“哦，好吧，听起来你已经尽了最大的努力。”但如果你提早离开，人们会问，“什么？”所以很快，我会告诉你我认为这是我口袋里最好的故事之一。

Let me pull it out before the end.

让我在结束之前把它拉出来。

So Stewart Butterfield creating a product called Glitch, and Glitch is a massive multiplayer online world-building cooperative game.

于是 Stewart Butterfield 创造了一款名为 Glitch 的产品，Glitch 是一款大型多人在线世界构建合作游戏。

Releases it, this is in the aughts, and it's like a huge hit with the critics.

发布它，这很糟糕，并且受到评论家的热烈欢迎。

It's Monty Python meets Dr. Seuss, it's an incredible whatever.

这是巨蟒剧团 (Monty Python) 遇见苏斯博士 (Dr. Seuss)，这真是令人难以置信。

They're getting tons and tons of great word of mouth and PR not doing any paid marketing.

他们在不进行任何付费营销的情况下获得了大量的口碑和公关。

They have incredible investors in Andreessen Horowitz and Accel, they have $6 million in the bank and they 5,000 have diehard users, meaning users who use the game who play over 20 hours a week.

他们拥有 Andreessen Horowitz 和 Accel 等令人难以置信的投资者，他们在银行有 600 万美元的存款，还有 5,000 名顽固用户，这意味着每周玩游戏超过 20 小时的用户。

Annie Duke: The issue is that customer acquisition was a beast that for every one person who was playing over 20 hours a week, there were between 95 and 99 people who came for five minutes and left.

Annie Duke：问题在于，客户获取是一场猛兽，每一个每周玩 20 小时以上的人，就会有 95 到 99 人来了 5 分钟就离开了。

So obviously, this is a customer acquisition problem, which everybody knows.

显然，这是一个众所周知的客户获取问题。

So they make an agreement in 2012 that they're going to do paid marketing, which they do for six weeks.

因此，他们在 2012 年达成协议，将进行付费营销，为期六周。

And during that six weeks, their acquisition of new users, it's growing like six to 7% week over week, which is amazing.

在那六周内，他们获得的新用户每周增长 6% 到 7%，这是惊人的。

And at the end of that six weeks, this is November of 2012, at the end of that six weeks, that Monday morning, Stewart Butterfield writes a note to his investors and co-founders and says, "I woke up this morning with the dead certainty that Glitch was over."

在那六周结束时，也就是 2012 年 11 月，在那六周结束时，即周一早上，斯图尔特·巴特菲尔德 (Stewart Butterfield) 给他的投资者和联合创始人写了一张便条，说道：“今天早上我醒来时，我确信 Glitch 已经结束了。”

Annie Duke: Now notice nobody would do this in this case, right?

安妮·杜克：现在请注意，在这种情况下没有人会这样做，对吧？

But this is what happened is that the issue is that you really have to see is this worthwhile or not?

但这就是发生的事情，问题是你真的必须看看这是否值得？

Would I start this today?

我今天就开始这个吗？

That's a forecast of the future, right?

这是对未来的预测，对吗？

And what he did was some back-of-the-envelope math, and he said, "Look, if we continue to acquire customers at the weight that we've been acquiring them at the cost that we've been acquiring them, it's going to be 31 weeks until we break even." But that's an absurd assumption because customer acquisition costs, it's going to go up.

他所做的是一些粗略的计算，他说，“看，如果我们继续以我们一直以来以成本获取客户的重量来获取客户，那么我们需要 31 周才能实现收支平衡。”但这是一个荒谬的假设，因为客户获取成本将会上升。

Cap has to rise because we're going to saturate the core gaming market, so it's got to rise.

上限必须提高，因为我们将使核心游戏市场饱和，所以上限必须提高。

So what he realized at that point was that this was not a venture scale business, and he was in this for a venture scale business.

所以他当时意识到这不是一个风险规模的业务，而他是为了一个风险规模的业务。

So even though nobody else saw that he was supposed to shut it down, he saw he was supposed to shut it down.

因此，尽管没有人认为他应该关闭它，但他认为他应该关闭它。

Annie Duke: And not only that, he saw that he was supposed to shut it down for his employees who were working for equity, and he had now realized that the equity wasn't worth their time and that it wasn't fair to them to keep going with it.

安妮·杜克：不仅如此，他认为他应该为那些为股权而工作的员工关闭它，而他现在意识到股权不值得他们花时间，而且继续这样做对他们来说是不公平的。

So he shuts it down.

所以他把它关掉了。

Obviously, that feels...

显然，这种感觉...

Who does that?

谁这样做？

Right?

正确的？

And he will actually tell you that he knows he should have shut it down before the marketing push, but he needed the marketing push to prove it to himself that he was seeing the future clearly.

他实际上会告诉你，他知道他应该在营销推广之前关闭它，但他需要营销推广来向自己证明他清楚地看到了未来。

Now, the code to this story just quickly is two days later, he's like, "Well, I'm a startup guy.

现在，这个故事的代码很快就在两天后，他就像，“好吧，我是一个初创公司。

I want to start something", and he's got this internal communication tool that his team is using in order to develop this product that everybody loves.

我想开始做一些事情”，他拥有他的团队正在使用的内部沟通工具，以开发每个人都喜欢的产品。

And he says, "Actually, they really like that.

他说：“事实上，他们真的很喜欢这样。

Maybe that should be the next product."

也许这应该是下一个产品。”

Annie Duke: So he goes and talks to the investors, they roll their money over into that.

安妮·杜克：所以他去与投资者交谈，他们将资金投入其中。

And that thing, which had no name at the time, now gets a name which is searchable log of all company knowledge, which is Slack.

这个东西当时没有名字，现在有了一个名字，它是所有公司知识的可搜索日志，那就是 Slack。

And so I think this is the important thing to realize is that we get so focused on, "But what about everything that I've put into it?" When what we forget is that when you're doing something, there's not just the cost of doing something that's not worthwhile that's direct, but there's also the cost of not being able to devote your attention to other opportunities that might be available to you.

所以我认为重要的是要认识到我们如此关注“但是我投入的一切又如何呢？”当我们忘记的是，当你做某事时，不仅会因为做一些不值得的事情而直接付出代价，而且还会因无法将注意力集中在其他可能提供给你的机会上而付出代价。

And as smart as Stewart Butterfield is, he couldn't see Slack until he quit Glitch.

尽管斯图尔特·巴特菲尔德 (Stewart Butterfield) 很聪明，但在退出 Glitch 之前，他是看不到 Slack 的。

And that is a true cost that he would've born of continuing with Glitch.

这是他继续从事 Glitch 工作所要付出的真正代价。

If he had continued with Glitch, Slack would not be something that we're all using today.

如果他继续使用 Glitch，Slack 就不会成为我们今天所使用的东西。

Lenny Rachitsky: That is an incredibly beautiful way to end our conversation.

Lenny Rachitsky：这是结束我们谈话的一种非常美妙的方式。

I feel like I have at least a billion more questions to ask you and on the other hand, I feel like we've also helped a lot of people make much better decisions through this chat so I'm really thankful that you made time for this.

我觉得我至少还有十亿个问题要问你，另一方面，我觉得我们也通过这次聊天帮助很多人做出了更好的决定，所以我真的很感谢你抽出时间来做这件事。

Two last questions.

最后两个问题。

Where can folks find you online if they want to learn about the stuff you're up to in case they want to work with you?

如果人们想了解您的动态以便与您合作，他们可以在哪里找到您？

And how can listeners be useful to you?

听众如何对你有用？

Annie Duke: You can find me at annieduke.com if you're interested in working with me.

Annie Duke：如果您有兴趣与我合作，可以在 annieduke.com 上找到我。

I have a Substack, Thinking in Bets.

我有一个子堆栈，思考投注。

Please go check that out.

请去检查一下。

I teach a class on maven.com twice a year on effective decision-making.

我每年在 maven.com 上教授两次关于有效决策的课程。

So if you're interested in that, you can go to Maven and check it out.

所以如果你对此感兴趣的话，你可以去Maven看看。

My next cohort at the moment is in September, although I might do one in May.

目前我的下一批是在九月，尽管我可能会在五月进行。

I'm not sure.

我不知道。

But in terms of people can help me, I co-founded an organization called The Alliance for Decision Education.

但就人们可以帮助我而言，我与他人共同创立了一个名为决策教育联盟的组织。

We're trying to bring the kinds of knowledge that we have about improving human decision-making in adults to K through 12 education to make the world a better place.

我们正在努力将我们所拥有的有关改善成人决策的知识引入 K through 12 教育，让世界变得更美好。

So I would love it if people could go look at that.

所以如果人们能去看的话我会很高兴。

If you're interested in it, get the word out.

如果您对此感兴趣，请说出来。

Lenny Rachitsky: Amazing.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：太棒了。

So we'll link to all those things in the show notes.

所以我们将链接到演出笔记中的所有这些内容。

Annie, again, thank you so much for being here.

安妮，再次非常感谢你来到这里。

Annie Duke: Thank you.

安妮·杜克：谢谢。

Thank you so much, this was so fun.

非常感谢，这太有趣了。

Lenny Rachitsky: Same.

莱尼·拉奇茨基：同样。

Bye, everyone.

再见，大家。

Thank you so much for listening.

非常感谢您的聆听。

If you found this valuable, you can subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app.

如果您发现这很有价值，您可以在 Apple Podcasts、Spotify 或您最喜欢的播客应用程序上订阅该节目。

Also, please consider giving us a rating or leaving a review as that really helps other listeners find the podcast.

另外，请考虑给我们评分或留下评论，因为这确实有助于其他听众找到播客。

You can find all past episodes or learn more about the show at lennyspodcast.com.

您可以在 lennyspodcast.com 上找到所有过去的剧集或了解有关该节目的更多信息。

See you in the next episode.

下一集见。