The Great Entertainment
Good morning!
早上好！
This piece is an attempt at synthesis of all the news we’ve gotten over the past few weeks - a combination of media logic and market structure and geopolitical trust and lessons from history.
这篇文章试图综合我们过去几周收到的所有新闻——媒体逻辑、市场结构、地缘政治信任和历史教训的结合。
This is a reader-supported publication.
这是一本由读者支持的出版物。
To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a paid subscriber.
要接收新帖子并支持我的工作，请考虑成为付费订阅者。
In 1954, actor Ronald Reagan became the host of General Electric Theater on CBS , an anthology drama series mixed with America’s first reality TV experiment - the Reagan family living as stars in GE's first home of ‘total electric living.’ As Tim Raphael wrote in 2009’s The Body Electric , this was the beginning of the fusion of “popular culture, corporate capitalism, and electronic media” that would define the next 70 years of American life.
1954 年，演员罗纳德·里根 (Ronald Reagan) 成为哥伦比亚广播公司 (CBS) 通用电气剧院 (General Electric Theatre) 的主持人，这是一部融合了美国首个真人秀电视实验的选集剧集——里根一家作为明星生活在通用电气 (GE) 第一个“全电动生活”之家中。正如蒂姆·拉斐尔 (Tim Raphael) 在 2009 年的《身体电气》(The Body Electric) 中所写，这是“流行文化、企业资本主义和电子媒体”融合的开始，它将定义美国未来 70 年的生活。
The show sold the idea of the Consumer Republic.
该节目推销了消费者共和国的理念。
Prosperity, like that afforded in this entirely electric home, would trickle down through technological progress and corporate expansion.
繁荣，就像这个全电力家庭所带来的那样，将通过技术进步和企业扩张而逐渐实现。
Reagan carried that idea into his governorship and presidency, that consumerism was the answer, and yes, indeed, of course, absolutely, tax cuts could fund government revenues.
里根将这一想法带入了他的州长和总统任期，消费主义就是答案，是的，确实，当然，绝对，减税可以为政府收入提供资金。
This occurred against the backdrop of the Great Moderation , which began in the middle of Reagan’s presidency.
这是在里根总统任期中期开始的“大温和”背景下发生的。
Despite turmoil , from the mid-1980s onwards, the economy was somewhat stable, moderate, defined by an independent central bank with transparent communication and a systematic monetary policy approach, technological growth, a shift to services from manufacturing, international trade, perpetually rising asset prices, and…
尽管经历了动荡，但从 20 世纪 80 年代中期开始，经济在某种程度上是稳定、温和的，由独立的中央银行、透明的沟通和系统的货币政策方针、技术增长、从制造业转向服务业、国际贸易、不断上涨的资产价格……
good luck.
祝你好运。
During the Great Moderation, the United States was afforded great privilege.
在“大稳健”时期，美国获得了巨大的特权。
They had been the arbiter of world peace 1 for many years.
多年来他们一直是世界和平的仲裁者1。
As Robert Kagan writes in the Atlantic , the world was horrendously scarred after two world wars back to back.
正如罗伯特·卡根在《大西洋月刊》中所写的那样，两次世界大战接连发生后，世界已经伤痕累累。
It needed a watchdog, and the United States, insulated geographically and rich, could be the one to do it:
它需要一个监督者，而地理上与世隔绝且富裕的美国可能是这样做的人：
Far from regarding the United States as a danger to be contained, most of the world’s powers saw it as a partner to be enlisted.
世界上大多数强国并没有将美国视为需要遏制的危险，而是将其视为需要招募的伙伴。
America’s allies made two remarkable wagers: that the United States could be trusted to defend them whenever needed, and that it would not exploit its disproportionate might to enrich or strengthen itself at their expense.
美国的盟友做出了两个引人注目的赌注：可以相信美国会在需要时保卫他们，并且不会利用其不成比例的力量以牺牲他们的利益为代价来充实或加强自己。
To the contrary, it would promote and benefit from its allies’ economic prosperity.
相反，它将促进盟国的经济繁荣并从中受益。
Trust!
相信！
The world uneasily trusted that the US would not get greedy and that it would take care of the world, to ensure some form of global peace and stability 2 .
世界不安地相信美国不会变得贪婪，它会照顾世界，以确保某种形式的全球和平与稳定 2 。
This trust and the subsequent globalization allowed American corporations to offshore production while capturing economic and market gains.
这种信任和随后的全球化使美国公司能够在海外进行生产，同时获得经济和市场收益。
Cheap manufacturing flooded the US with affordable goods.
廉价制造业为美国带来了廉价商品。
The TV allowed for consistent policy messaging.
电视可以传达一致的政策信息。
There was also a tremendous amount of financialization.
还有大量的金融化。
After all, total electric living required consumer credit.
毕竟，全面的电动生活需要消费者信贷。
Consumer credit required financial deregulation.
消费信贷需要放松金融管制。
Financial deregulation enabled securitization and the rise of shareholder value as the singular corporate purpose.
金融放松管制使得证券化和股东价值的上升成为单一的企业目标。
Eventually, the Consumer Republic became the Shareholder Republic , finally manifesting the outcome of the Dodge vs Ford Motor Company court case that ruled in the favor of shareholders in 1919.
最终，消费者共和国变成了股东共和国，最终体现了 1919 年道奇诉福特汽车公司法庭案件的结果，该案件做出了有利于股东的裁决。
But stability never lasts.
但稳定永远不会持久。
Hyman Minsky wrote about how this stability breeds instability, that comfort leads to complacency.
海曼·明斯基（Hyman Minsky）写道，这种稳定如何滋生不稳定，这种舒适如何导致自满。
Asset prices rise, people think everything continues forever, they gorge themselves on debt.
资产价格上涨，人们认为一切都会永远持续下去，他们负债累累。
People get too greedy.
人们变得太贪婪了。
Things blow up.
事情爆炸了。
The Great Moderation was pockmarked with periods of crisis, but the shocks were smaller than they were before.
大稳健期间充满了危机，但冲击比以前要小。
Then the 2008 Recession hit.
然后 2008 年经济衰退袭来。
The shock to the economy was extraordinarily severe.
对经济的冲击异常严重。
As the economy recovered, inflation was so low that the Federal Reserve’s job was to stoke it, not to fight it.
随着经济复苏，通货膨胀率如此之低，以至于美联储的工作是刺激通货膨胀，而不是对抗通货膨胀。
And slowly, yet again, asset prices went up.
资产价格再次缓慢上涨。
The world was still mostly stable.
世界仍然基本稳定。
It seemed like Fukuyama was right about the end of history - that liberal democracy had won, and the great ideological battles were over.
福山关于历史终结的说法似乎是正确的——自由民主已经获胜，伟大的意识形态斗争已经结束。
But he also warned about what comes after - in a world without genuine struggle, people seek conflict.
但他也警告接下来会发生什么——在一个没有真正斗争的世界里，人们寻求冲突。
They get bored.
他们感到无聊。
Enter Donald Trump, reality TV star, complete with Reaganesque immunity from any accountability.
电视真人秀明星唐纳德·特朗普登场，他具有里根式的豁免权，可以免受任何责任。
Trying to assign ownership to actions is similar to “trying to convict a squirrel of trespassing” as Daniel Immerwahr writes in The New Yorker.
正如丹尼尔·伊默瓦尔（Daniel Immerwahr）在《纽约客》中所写，试图将所有权分配给行动类似于“试图判定一只松鼠非法侵入”。
In Trump’s first term, the market was on his side.
在特朗普的第一个任期内，市场站在他一边。
Ultra-low rates from the 2010s provided cushion.
2010 年代的超低利率提供了缓冲。
Institutions bent, but held.
机构屈服了，但还是坚持了下来。
Allies grumbled, but stayed.
盟友们抱怨不已，但还是留下来了。
But Trump 2.0, a year in now, arrives in a different world: rates have risen, fiscal space is constrained, and now, the US is treating former friends like foes.
但一年过去了，特朗普2.0来到了一个不同的世界：利率上升，财政空间受到限制，而现在，美国正在像对待敌人一样对待以前的朋友。
As Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carney w arned in his harbinger Davos speech:
正如加拿大总理马克·卡尼在他的达沃斯演讲中所警告的那样：
Let me be direct: we are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.
让我直接说吧：我们正处于破裂之中，而不是过渡之中。
Over the past two decades, a series of crises in finance, health, energy, and geopolitics laid bare the risks of extreme global integration.
过去二十年，一系列金融、卫生、能源和地缘政治危机暴露了全球极端一体化的风险。
More recently, great powers began using economic integration as weapons.
最近，大国开始利用经济一体化作为武器。
Tariffs as leverage.
关税作为杠杆。
Financial infrastructure as coercion.
金融基础设施作为强制。
Supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited.
供应链作为可被利用的漏洞。
You cannot “live within the lie” of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.
当整合成为你从属地位的根源时，你就无法通过整合“生活在互惠互利的谎言中”。
You cannot live within the lie.
你不能生活在谎言之中。
The Great Moderation seems to be officially wrapping up.
大温和似乎正式结束了。
Carney underscores that the “rules-based international order” has always been not real, but people believed it was real because it was useful.
卡尼强调，“基于规则的国际秩序”一直不是真实的，但人们相信它是真实的，因为它有用。
After all, as Reagan said , “the greatest leaders in history are remembered more for what they said than for what they did.” But now, as Carney says, the gap between rhetoric and reality is closing.
毕竟，正如里根所说，“历史上最伟大的领导人更多的是因为他们所说的话而不是他们所做的事而被铭记。”但现在，正如卡尼所说，言辞与现实之间的差距正在缩小。
I interviewed President Mary C.
我采访了玛丽·C.
Daly of the San Francisco Federal Reserve and President Tom Barkin of the Richmond Federal Reserve last week .
上周，旧金山联储主席戴利和里士满联储主席汤姆·巴金。
The conversation centered on how astoundingly resilient the American economy has been over the past five years.
谈话的重点是美国经济在过去五年中表现出惊人的弹性。
Consumer spending has been strong, the labor market decent, the economy growing.
消费者支出强劲，劳动力市场良好，经济不断增长。
Neither president was commenting on politics, only on macro conditions.
两位总统都没有评论政治，仅评论宏观状况。
President Daly brought up the Great Moderation:
戴利总统提出了“大温和”：
What’s the most unusual circumstance we’re in right now?
我们现在所处的最不寻常的情况是什么？
It’s that we have a lot of volatility and much more uncertainty than we had through the whole 40-year period of what’s called the Great Moderation.
而是我们的波动性和不确定性比整个 40 年的“大稳健”时期还要多。
In the interview, President Barkin pointed that the persistence of uncertainty is the greatest uncertainty we are facing:
巴尔金总统在采访中指出，不确定性的持续存在是我们面临的最大不确定性：
[The modern version of uncertainty] is actually the persistence of uncertainty [...] I just think you’re going to have higher volatility, higher uncertainty, and that’s going to be a persistent part of the economic environment.
[现代版本的不确定性]实际上是不确定性的持续存在[...]我只是认为波动性更高，不确定性更高，这将成为经济环境中持续存在的一部分。
People are going to have to do things about that.
人们将不得不为此采取行动。
It’s not like that’s never happened before, but I actually look back in the last 40 years and I think that was relatively stable compared to the environment we’re in and are likely headed toward.
这并不是以前从未发生过，但我实际上回顾过去 40 年，我认为与我们所处的环境和可能走向的环境相比，这是相对稳定的。
Uncertainty is certainly the theme of 2026.
不确定性无疑是 2026 年的主题。
And to be clear, Martin Wolf points out in the FT , the US could still have a strong economy, even with all of this, due to the AI of it all:
需要明确的是，马丁·沃尔夫在《金融时报》上指出，即使发生了这一切，美国仍然可以拥有强劲的经济，这要归功于人工智能：
It is possible that even such an uncooperative and unstable environment will not impair the willingness of business and policymakers to take big bets on the future.
即使是这样一个不合作和不稳定的环境，也可能不会削弱企业和政策制定者对未来进行大赌注的意愿。
Look at the AI boom.
看看人工智能的繁荣。
But this must be doubted.
但这一点必须值得怀疑。
The costs may not come swiftly or even visibly.
成本可能不会很快甚至不明显。
Yet we know that populist policies erode domestic economic performance.
然而我们知道民粹主义政策会侵蚀国内经济表现。
The same is sure to be true when the regime in question is a global superpower.
当有关政权是全球超级大国时，情况肯定也是如此。
It doesn’t feel very hopeful - AI is such a strange thing to pin the economy on.
感觉不太有希望——把经济寄托在人工智能上是一件很奇怪的事情。
71% of Americans feel like things in the United States “feel out of control.” If you imagine America like a great reality TV show, it all makes sense (or at least more sense).
71% 的美国人感觉美国的事情“感觉失控”。如果你把美国想象成一个伟大的真人秀电视节目，那么这一切都是有道理的（或者至少更有意义）。
We are all unwillingly living through a social experiment that is defined by fabricated drama that eventually becomes real through sheer repetition.
我们都不愿意经历一场由捏造的戏剧所定义的社会实验，最终通过纯粹的重复而变成现实。
As Reagan’s press secretary Larry Speakes said: “I f you tell the same story five times, it’s true.”
正如里根的新闻秘书拉里·斯皮克斯所说：“如果你把同一个故事讲五遍，那就是真的。”
Everything is close shots and zoom outs, hair perfectly done for the clip, segments scripted exactly to go viral on social media.
一切都是近景和变焦镜头，头发完美地贴合了剪辑，片段的脚本正是为了在社交媒体上疯传而设计的。
Constant, neverending, mindnumbing tension.
持续的、永无休止的、令人麻木的紧张。
To exist on reality TV is to exist in a world that is fundamentally not real, built-up cruelty for the sake of entertainment, shock value just to keep people watching.
存在于真人秀节目中就意味着存在于一个根本上不真实的世界，为了娱乐而建立残酷，为了让人们观看而产生震撼价值。
And Trump certainly knows good television.
特朗普当然知道好的电视节目。
Before his address on the US capture of Venezuelan leader Nicholas Maduro, Trump called into Fox: “I watched it, literally, like I was watching a television show.
在就美国抓捕委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗发表讲话之前，特朗普打电话给福克斯：“我确实看了它，就像我在看电视节目一样。
And if you would have seen the speed, the violence.”
如果你能看到速度和暴力。”
Trump told Kevin Hassett , one of the two Kevins up for Fed Chair, that he might keep Kevin 1 in his job as National Economic Council because “he likes how Hassett defends his policies on television.”
特朗普告诉凯文·哈塞特（两位竞选美联储主席的凯文之一），他可能会让凯文·哈塞特继续担任国家经济委员会的职务，因为“他喜欢哈塞特在电视上捍卫自己政策的方式”。
During a terrible TV-broadcasted dispute over gratitude (?), he told the war-weary Ukrainian President Volodymy Zelenskyy that the debacle would make “great television”.
在一场关于感恩的可怕的电视广播争论中（？），他告诉厌倦战争的乌克兰总统弗拉基米·泽伦斯基（Volodymy Zelenskyy），这场灾难将成为“伟大的电视”。
This is the Great Entertainment 3 , the period after the Great Moderation.
这是大娱乐3，大温和之后的时期。
We are no longer in a world defined by alliances and mutual agreement.
我们不再处于一个由联盟和共同协议定义的世界。
Instead we are rapidly entering a time of instability and uncertainty, driven by the appearance of success (not success itself) on TV.
相反，在电视上成功的表现（而不是成功本身）的推动下，我们正在迅速进入一个不稳定和不确定的时代。
The White House posts AI-generated pictures of Rubio, Vance, and Trump hoisting an American flag in Greenland.
白宫发布了由人工智能生成的鲁比奥、万斯和特朗普在格陵兰岛升起美国国旗的照片。
There are thinly veiled threats disguised as memes on official government accounts, strangely capitalized captions, noise for the sake of noise.
政府官方账户上存在着几乎不加掩饰的威胁，这些威胁伪装成模因、奇怪的大写标题、为了噪音而噪音。
When it comes to Great TV, the currency of Great Entertainment, you must do crazier and crazier things to keep people engaged.
当谈到伟大的电视，伟大的娱乐的货币时，你必须做越来越疯狂的事情来保持人们的参与度。
There is great risk of audience capture.
俘获观众的风险很大。
You start to define yourself by the bloodthirst of the fanbase, people who are detached from the outcome but quite interested in the process.
你开始通过粉丝群的嗜血来定义自己，这些人与结果无关，但对过程非常感兴趣。
It’s why so many people crash out.
这就是为什么这么多人崩溃的原因。
That seems to be what happened to the President.
这似乎就是发生在总统身上的事情。
Trump’s spectacle is colliding with extreme debt, demographics, poor approval ratings , and geopolitics.
特朗普的景象与极端的债务、人口结构、糟糕的支持率和地缘政治发生了冲突。
There is constant messaging: performance without prosperity and image without substance.
不断传递出这样的信息：没有繁荣的业绩和没有实质内容的形象。
Baudrillard’s America , symbols of greatness circulating faster than the conditions that once sustained them.
鲍德里亚笔下的美国，伟大象征的传播速度比曾经支撑它们的条件传播得更快。
It’s why there are so many RETVRN posts from the government, an imagined past-America that allows for everyone to have whatever they want (usually it references 1950s, when everyone certainly did not have whatever they wanted).
这就是为什么政府有如此多的 RETVRN 帖子，这是一个想象中的过去美国，允许每个人拥有他们想要的任何东西（通常它指的是 20 世纪 50 年代，当时每个人肯定没有拥有他们想要的任何东西）。
This is why “Make America Great Again” is so resonant.
这就是为什么“让美国再次伟大”如此引起共鸣。
It promises a return to a moment that never existed for most people and cannot be recreated through performance alone.
它承诺重返对大多数人来说从未存在过的时刻，并且无法仅通过表演来重现。
Nostalgia works as content but it certainly fails as governance.
怀旧作为内容是有效的，但作为治理肯定是失败的。
Through its attempts to redefine the past into something it never was, with promises of returning to manufacturing and whatnot, the US is actively destroying its most valuable financial asset: trust.
通过试图将过去重新定义为从未有过的东西，并承诺恢复制造业等，美国正在积极摧毁其最有价值的金融资产：信任。
It misunderstands that none of this would work - the US dollar, the Treasuries, the stock market, the full faith and credit - without trust.
它误解了，如果没有信任，这一切——美元、国债、股票市场、充分的信仰和信用——都行不通。
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick at Davos:
商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克在达沃斯：
The Trump Administration and I are here to make a very clear point—globalization has failed the West and the United States of America.
特朗普政府和我在这里要明确指出一点——全球化辜负了西方和美利坚合众国。
It’s a failed policy…
这是一项失败的政策……
and it has left America behind.
它把美国抛在了后面。
America is successful because of globalization and the Great Moderation.
美国之所以成功，是因为全球化和大稳健。
America is successful because the dollar is the reserve currency, which would only be possible with free trade.
美国之所以成功，是因为美元是储备货币，而这只有通过自由贸易才能实现。
America is successful because the world believed in it.
美国之所以成功，是因为世界相信它。
The Greenland threat reportedly is because of (1) Trump’s personal grievance that he was not awarded the Nobel Peace Prize and (2) because he thinks Greenland is very big, at least according to the maps (image, reality, etc) .
据报道，格陵兰岛的威胁是因为（1）特朗普个人对他没有获得诺贝尔和平奖感到不满，（2）因为他认为格陵兰岛很大，至少从地图（图像、现实等）来看是这样。
He is threatening to levy tariffs against anyone who gets in his way.
他威胁要对任何妨碍他的人征收关税。
This certainly doesn’t help the rest of the world, but it definitely hurts Americans.
这当然不会帮助世界其他国家，但肯定会伤害美国人。
Tariffs, which are meant as a punishment against other countries, are mostly paid by Americans.
关税是对其他国家的惩罚，但大部分是由美国人支付的。
Americans bear 96% of the cost of these tariffs , experienced through higher prices or lower wages or lost investment.
美国人承担了 96% 的关税成本，这是由于价格上涨、工资下降或投资损失造成的。
These tariffs, which perhaps might be illegal (!) if the Supreme Court ever does its job , have caused pain that really hurts the American people.
如果最高法院履行其职责，这些关税可能是非法的（！），它们造成了真正伤害美国人民的痛苦。
The old order is not coming back.
旧秩序不会再回来了。
We should not mourn it.
我们不应该哀悼它。
Nostalgia is not a strategy.
怀旧不是一种策略。
But from the fracture, we can build something better, stronger, and more just.
但从断裂中，我们可以建立更好、更强大、更公正的东西。
This is the task of the middle powers, who have the most to lose from a world of fortresses and the most to gain from a world of genuine cooperation.
这是中等强国的任务，它们从一个堡垒世界中损失最大，但从一个真正合作的世界中获益最多。
The powerful have their power.
强者有他们的权力。
But we have something too—the capacity to stop pretending, to name reality, to build our strength at home, and to act together.
但我们也有一些东西——停止假装、说出现实、增强国内力量以及共同行动的能力。
And how do you fight siren call of nostalgia?
如何对抗怀旧的诱惑？
You tell the truth.
你说实话。
Trump’s Department of Justice served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas, threatening criminal indictment.
特朗普的司法部向美联储发出了大陪审团传票，威胁要提起刑事起诉。
This follows Trump’s investigation of Fed governor Lisa Cook’s alleged mortgage fraud .
此前，特朗普对美联储理事丽莎·库克涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈展开调查。
Powell, in a remarkably direct and somber address, stated:
鲍威尔在一次非常直接而严肃的讲话中表示：
The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.
刑事指控的威胁是美联储根据我们对公众服务的最佳评估来设定利率的结果，而不是遵循总统的偏好。
Powell spoke truth during a time when no one can make much sense of anything.
鲍威尔在一个没人能理解任何事情的时代说出了真相。
The pretense of the reality TV show we are all unwillingly a part of has begun to fade away.
我们都不愿意参与的电视真人秀的假装已经开始消失。
This is an incredible moment of realness, a shocking instance of courage.
这是一个令人难以置信的真实时刻，一个令人震惊的勇气实例。
And that is the only thing that can combat falsehoods.
这是唯一可以对抗谎言的东西。
And the only thing that is governing the administration right now and keeping falsehoods in check is the market.
目前唯一能管理政府并遏制谎言的就是市场。
Forget about Congress or the Supreme Court, bond traders are the most important government entity we have.
忘掉国会或最高法院吧，债券交易员是我们最重要的政府实体。
Trump needs the stock market to go up and the bond market to remain calm.
特朗普需要股市上涨，债市保持平静。
If stocks go down or yields spike, there is no celebration of strong 401ks or low mortgage rates.
如果股市下跌或收益率飙升，就不会庆祝强劲的 401k 或低抵押贷款利率。
Markets are his scoreboard .
市场是他的记分牌。
That’s how he measures whether this TV show is working.
这就是他衡量这个电视节目是否有效的方法。
And currently, it’s not working.
目前，它不起作用。
The stock market took the first dip yesterday because of Iceland [he means Greenland] so Iceland has already cost us a lot of money.
昨天股市第一次下跌是因为冰岛（他指的是格陵兰岛），所以冰岛已经让我们损失了很多钱。
But that dip is peanuts compared to what it’s gone up […] that stock market is going to double in a relatively short period of time
但与上涨的幅度相比，这次下跌只是微不足道的 […] 股市将在相对较短的时间内翻倍
Again, the Trump administration misunderstands what America’s role in the world is, but they do understand what makes their agenda possible.
特朗普政府再次误解了美国在世界上的角色，但他们确实了解是什么使他们的议程成为可能。
As Katie Martin writes in the Financial Times , Trump “needs a strong bond market to help fund his fiscal agenda, not a weak one that jacks up his borrowing costs”.
正如凯蒂·马丁在《金融时报》上所写，特朗普“需要一个强大的债券市场来为其财政议程提供资金，而不是一个会推高借贷成本的疲软债券市场”。
The dollar and Treasuries are selling off as people trade out of US assets, wary of the volatility generated by the Administration in the name of Great TV.
由于人们担心政府以大电视之名引发的波动，人们纷纷抛售美国资产，美元和美国国债正在遭到抛售。
When the US government needs money (which is constantly, because it runs deficits and unfortunately, erratic tariff revenue will not cover the cost of increasing the military budget by $500 billion) it sells Treasury bonds.
当美国政府需要资金时（这种情况一直存在，因为它存在赤字，而且不幸的是，不稳定的关税收入无法支付增加 5000 亿美元军事预算的成本），它就会出售国债。
Someone (a foreign government, a pension fund, a bank) gives the US government money, and the US promises to pay them back with interest later.
有人（外国政府、养老基金、银行）向美国政府提供资金，美国承诺稍后连本带利地偿还给他们。
For decades, US Treasury bonds have been considered the safest asset in the world.
几十年来，美国国债一直被认为是世界上最安全的资产。
When everything else is falling apart, people buy Treasuries.
当其他一切都崩溃时，人们会购买国债。
But what happens when the US itself becomes the risk?
但当美国本身成为风险时会发生什么？
We are currently finding out.
我们目前正在寻找答案。
Treasury yields are spiking for two reasons - (1) a big selloff in Japan and (2) massive geopolitical risk.
美国国债收益率飙升有两个原因：（1）日本的大规模抛售和（2）巨大的地缘政治风险。
People are watching the President of the United States threaten to invade Greenland - a territory of Denmark, a NATO ally - and they’re thinking: “Wait, can I actually count on getting my money back from this government?
人们看着美国总统威胁入侵格陵兰岛——北约盟国丹麦的领土——他们在想：“等等，我真的能指望从这个政府拿回我的钱吗？
Maybe I should…
也许我应该……
sell?”
卖吗？
The largest foreign holder of US Treasuries is Japan.
美国国债的最大外国持有者是日本。
Japan holds about a trillion dollars of US debt .
日本持有约一万亿美元的美国债务。
For a very long time, Japan has been stuck in deflation, stagnant growth, and has kept interest rates pinned at zero.
长期以来，日本一直深陷通货紧缩、增长停滞的泥沼，利率一直维持在零水平。
The Bank of Japan had to buy a lot of bonds just to keep the system from collapsing.
日本央行不得不购买大量债券，以防止体系崩溃。
Japan is trying to exit this regime.
日本正试图退出这一政权。
The Bank of Japan has slowly let interest rates rise over the past year.
日本央行在过去一年中缓慢提高利率。
But, complicating things, newly elected Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is trying out unfunded tax cuts and snap elections .
但是，让事情变得更加复杂的是，新当选的首相高市早苗正在尝试无资金支持的减税和提前选举。
The last time a world leader (Liz Truss in the UK) tried unfunded tax cuts, the bond market slaughtered them faster than it took a head of lettuce to wilt.
上次世界领导人（英国的莉兹·特拉斯）尝试无资金支持的减税时，债券市场屠杀他们的速度比生菜枯萎的速度还要快。
But cheap Japanese liquidity has underpinned global markets for decades.
但几十年来，廉价的日本流动性一直支撑着全球市场。
Investors around the world were:
世界各地的投资者是：
Borrowing a bunch of yen in Japan (costs you almost nothing)
在日本借一大笔日元（几乎不需要花任何钱）
Buying US stocks, or bonds, or real estate, or whatever yields more than zero
购买美国股票、债券、房地产或任何收益率大于零的东西
Because Japanese rates have been so low for so long, this trade where you borrow low and invest high has been absolutely massive.
由于日本利率长期以来一直处于较低水平，这种低借贷高投资的交易规模绝对巨大。
Trillions of dollars worth of positions built on borrowed yen.
借入日元建立的价值数万亿美元的头寸。
The trade works great as long as two things remain true:
只要满足以下两点，这种交易就会很好地进行：
Japanese rates stay near zero (so your borrowing cost stays low)
日本利率保持在接近于零的水平（因此您的借贷成本保持较低）
The yen stays weak relative to the dollar (so you don’t lose money when converting back)
日元相对于美元保持疲软（因此兑换回来时不会亏损）
But now Japan is raising rates.
但现在日本正在加息。
The borrowing cost goes up.
借贷成本上升。
You look at your spreadsheet and realize: “Wait, I’m borrowing at 2% to invest in something yielding 3%, and that’s not as good as it used to be when I was borrowing at 0%.”
你查看电子表格并意识到：“等等，我以 2% 的利率借钱来投资收益率为 3% 的东西，这并不像我以前以 0% 的利率借钱时那么好。”
When Japanese rates rise, the yen tends to strengthen.
当日本利率上升时，日元往往会走强。
Which means if you borrowed 100 million yen, converted it to dollars, invested those dollars, and now you need to pay back your yen loan - you need more dollars to buy back those yen than you originally got.
这意味着，如果您借了 1 亿日元，将其转换为美元，将这些美元进行投资，现在您需要偿还日元贷款 - 您需要比最初获得的更多美元来回购这些日元。
You’re losing money on the currency conversion itself.
您在货币兑换本身上亏损。
What do you do?
你做什么工作？
You unwind your trade.
您平仓了您的交易。
You sell your US assets, convert back to yen, pay off your loan.
您出售美国资产，兑换回日元，还清贷款。
This creates what Albert Edwards calls “a loud sucking sound in U.S. financial assets.” The carry trade that underpinned the global financial system could be ending.
这造成了阿尔伯特·爱德华兹所说的“美国金融资产的巨大吸吮声”。支撑全球金融体系的套利交易可能会结束。
And it’s ending precisely when the US needs it most.
而它恰恰在美国最需要的时候结束。
There is also more pressure on US Treasuries coming from Europe.
美国国债还面临来自欧洲的更大压力。
Danish Funds are dumping US treasuries, pointing out weak fiscal discipline .
丹麦基金正在抛售美国国债，指出财政纪律薄弱。
Other European countries, who own roughly 40% of the foreign held Treasury market, are threatening to follow suit .
拥有大约 40% 外国持有国债市场份额的其他欧洲国家也威胁要效仿。
It’s not clear exactly where they will park their money, but there is a reason gold is up 75% 4 over the past 12 months and a reason China is trying to create a gold-backed alternative to the dollar.
目前尚不清楚他们将资金具体存放在哪里，但过去 12 个月金价上涨 75% 4 是有原因的，也是中国试图创造一种以黄金支持的美元替代品的原因。
If this does happen, the US has a real problem:
如果这种情况真的发生，美国就有一个真正的问题：
Higher yields mean higher debt service costs for the US government
较高的收益率意味着美国政府的偿债成本较高
Larger deficits mean more Treasury issuance (more bonds to sell)
更大的赤字意味着更多的国债发行（更多的债券出售）
More issuance into a market with less buyers means even higher yields
在买家较少的市场上发行更多债券意味着更高的收益率
The EU has frozen its trade deal with the U S.
欧盟冻结了与美国的贸易协议。
The real world always catches up to reality TV.
现实世界总是赶上电视真人秀。
Larry Fink, CEO of Blackrock, pointed out in his Davos speech:
贝莱德首席执行官拉里·芬克在达沃斯演讲中指出：
For many people this meeting feels out of step with the moment: elites in an age of populism, an established institution in an era of deep institutional distrust [...] But it’s also obvious that the world now places far less trust in us to help shape what comes next.
对于许多人来说，这次会议感觉与时代格格不入：民粹主义时代的精英，制度深度不信任时代的既定机构……但同样明显的是，现在世界对我们帮助塑造未来的信任度大大降低。
He highlighted extreme wealth inequality, the over-reliance on market cap as a barometer of economic health, the concerns about AI and the echo chamber that wealth has created around itself.
他强调了极端的财富不平等、过度依赖市值作为经济健康状况的晴雨表、对人工智能的担忧以及财富在自身周围产生的回声室。
TRUST is what matters.
信任才是最重要的。
During the Great Moderation, this could be mostly ignored.
在大温和期间，这一点基本上可以被忽略。
Goods were cheap enough.
商品足够便宜。
White collar work and college education offered new heights to climb to.
白领工作和大学教育提供了攀登新的高度。
There was a sense the US would continue this way, forever.
人们有一种感觉，美国将永远继续这种方式。
It’s funny, the two conversations that are sitting side-by-side right now.
有趣的是，现在并排进行的两个对话。
The end of the rules-based order and the rise of AI.
基于规则的秩序的终结和人工智能的兴起。
Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, spoke at Davos and repeated that Anthropic, one of the top AI labs, is “6-12 months away from models doing all of what software engineers do end-to-end” , or 6-12 months from taking a lot of jobs.
Anthropic 首席执行官达里奥·阿莫迪 (Dario Amodei) 在达沃斯发表讲话，并重申 Anthropic 作为顶级人工智能实验室之一，“距离模型能够完成软件工程师端到端的所有工作”，或者说需要 6-12 个月才能完成大量工作。
Palantir CEO Alex Karp says AI will displace so many jobs that it will eliminate the need for mass immigration.
Palantir 首席执行官亚历克斯·卡普 (Alex Karp) 表示，人工智能将取代大量工作岗位，从而消除大规模移民的需要。
Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel, says that “the world needs a savior, and the hope is that AI is the savior that we need for productivity”.
Citadel 首席执行官 Ken Griffin 表示，“世界需要一位救世主，希望人工智能成为我们生产力所需的救世主”。
He also says that much of the AI rhetoric is hype, and that the “United States and China” are the two big beneficiaries of this moment.
他还表示，大部分人工智能言论都是炒作，“美国和中国”是这一时刻的两大受益者。
Again, the difference between rhetoric and realness.
再次，言辞和现实之间的区别。
Canada has already struck a trade deal with China, and the EU is searching for something similar.
加拿大已经与中国达成贸易协议，欧盟也在寻求类似的协议。
China has focused on the real while America flirts with this strange performative economy, mixed at once with endless TV and endless financialization.
中国专注于现实，而美国却在玩弄这种奇怪的表演经济，它与无休无止的电视和无休止的金融化混合在一起。
China is welcoming other countries with open arms.
中国张开双臂欢迎其他国家。
Their soft power is growing, with people embracing “a very Chinese time in their life” in a recent TikTok trend, a hyperreal embrace of a world that is decidedly not American.
他们的软实力正在增强，人们在最近的 TikTok 趋势中拥抱“生命中非常中国的时光”，这是对一个绝对不是美国世界的超现实的拥抱。
It’s even beating the States at the game it has staked its entire economy on - the AI of it all.
它甚至在将整个经济押注于人工智能的游戏中击败了美国。
To get away from the reality TV show analogy for a second - it’s important to understand what the AI race is actually about, which is energy.
暂时脱离电视真人秀的类比——了解人工智能竞赛的真正含义很重要，那就是能源。
It fundamentally 100% does not matter who has the best AI girlfriend/boyfriend if they do not have a grid to support it.
从根本上来说，如果没有网格支持，谁拥有最好的人工智能女朋友/男朋友，100% 并不重要。
China now generates more electricity than the US and the EU combined , with 40 new nuclear power reactors under construction, compared to…
中国现在的发电量比美国和欧盟的总和还多，有 40 个新核电反应堆在建，相比之下……
zero in the United States.
在美国为零。
Energy is what matters, the real economy.
能源才是最重要的，实体经济才是最重要的。
Peter Ryan shared a piece from 2009 Mark Carney, when he was Governor of the Bank of Canada (he was also Governor of the Bank of England, wild run this guy is on) where Carney focused on this real economy, the world beyond gambling (the second fastest growing sector of the economy over the past five years) and speculation:
Peter Ryan 分享了 2009 年马克·卡尼 (Mark Carney) 的一篇文章，当时他担任加拿大央行行长（他还担任过英格兰银行行长，这家伙正在疯狂奔跑），其中卡尼专注于实体经济，以及赌博（过去五年中增长第二快的经济部门）和投机之外的世界：
The financial system must transition from its self-appointed role as the apex of economic activity to once again be the servant of the real economy.
金融体系必须从其自封的经济活动主导角色转变为再次成为实体经济的仆人。
This is a sentiment echoed by President Xi Jinping of China, that the real economy is what matters.
中国国家主席习近平也表达了同样的观点：实体经济才是最重要的。
The US seems to be slowly becoming aware of this, that there has to be a focus on energy as a way to win the AI race.
美国似乎正在慢慢意识到这一点，必须关注能源作为赢得人工智能竞赛的一种方式。
But the real world doesn’t make for good TV.
但现实世界并不适合好看的电视。
President Barkin talks about businesses needing “multiple options, multiple irons in the fire” to navigate this era of uncertainty.
巴尔金总统谈到，企业需要“多种选择，多种熨斗”来度过这个充满不确定性的时代。
You need real things!
你需要的是真实的东西！
Reality TV demands that the story throughline remain the same.
真人秀节目要求故事主线保持不变。
Trump refuses to back down on Greenland, tweeting private messages between him and world leaders, threatening 200% tariffs on France because they refuse to pay the $1 billion to him (not to the US, to him) to join his Board of Peace.
特朗普拒绝在格陵兰岛问题上做出让步，他在推特上发布了他与世界领导人之间的私人信息，威胁对法国征收 200% 的关税，因为法国拒绝向他（不是向美国，而是他）支付 10 亿美元以加入他的和平委员会。
The President must be allowed to stir up drama 5 , and no one is allowed to fight back (or if they do, it should be in the name of Great TV).
必须允许总统煽动戏剧 5 ，并且不允许任何人反击（或者如果他们反击，也应该以伟大电视的名义）。
The Administration can go on TV and assure everyone that all of this is happening because of the Globalists, a made-up foil to advance the narrative, or because of the immigrants, or because of the UN or because of NATO - they can say anything and everything and they will.
政府可以在电视上向所有人保证，所有这一切的发生都是因为全球主义者，一个为了推进叙事而捏造的陪衬，或者是因为移民，或者是因为联合国，或者是因为北约——他们可以说什么，他们会说什么。
But the world is not a reality TV show.
但世界不是真人秀。
People’s lives cannot be governed by what makes ‘good TV’.
人们的生活不能由“好电视”的要素来决定。
It must be governed by trust.
它必须由信任来管理。
It must be governed by realness.
它必须受真实性的支配。
As Wendell Berry said, “I am speaking of the life of a man who knows that the world is not given by his fathers, but borrowed from his children.” And we’re teaching those children that governance is spectacle, that alliances are disposable, that cruelty and showmanship is the path to success, and that the only thing that matters is whether something makes great television.
正如温德尔·贝里所说：“我说的是一个人的生活，他知道世界不是他的父亲给予的，而是从他的孩子那里借来的。”我们正在教导这些孩子，治理是奇观，联盟是一次性的，残酷和表演是成功之路，唯一重要的是某件事是否能成为伟大的电视节目。
The cameras keep rolling.
摄像机继续转动。
Trump keeps performing.
特朗普继续表演。
But the infrastructure that made the entire show possible - the dollar as reserve currency, the bond market, the alliances - appears to be already changing channels.
但使整个表演成为可能的基础设施——美元作为储备货币、债券市场、联盟——似乎已经在改变渠道。
Reagan proved you could use TV aesthetics in governance.
里根证明了你可以在治理中运用电视美学。
Trump is proving you cannot replace governance with TV.
特朗普正在证明你不能用电视取代治理。
That clarity, however painful, might be the most valuable thing this moment offers.
这种清晰，无论多么痛苦，可能是此刻最有价值的东西。
What comes after the Great Entertainment won’t be a return to the Great Moderation.
大娱乐之后发生的事情不会是大温和的回归。
But it might be something better: where material reality matters more than the TV scoreboard and where governance is measured by what it builds rather than how it plays.
但这可能会更好：物质现实比电视记分板更重要，治理是通过其构建的内容而不是其运作方式来衡量的。
A return to the real.
回归真实。
This is a reader-supported publication.
这是一本由读者支持的出版物。
To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a paid subscriber.
要接收新帖子并支持我的工作，请考虑成为付费订阅者。
To be clear, the US has always meddled in external affairs, often stirring great violence .
需要说明的是，美国一贯插手对外事务，经常煽动暴力事件。
There was perhaps peace in Europe and other developed nations, but certainly not elsewhere.
欧洲和其他发达国家或许存在和平，但其他地方肯定没有。
People are calling this the debasement trade - fiat currencies will be made worthless by questionable fiscal and monetary policy decisions, so people buy gold
人们称之为贬值交易——可疑的财政和货币政策决定将使法定货币变得一文不值，因此人们购买黄金
I find it interesting that so much of his personal wealth is in crypto , about one-fifth of his total fortune according to Bloomberg.
我觉得有趣的是，他的个人财富中有很大一部分都是加密货币，据彭博社报道，大约占他总财富的五分之一。
A dense, but critical read.
一本厚重但具有批判性的读物。
Long dispersed chickens are coming home to roost.
分散已久的鸡即将回家栖息。
Reality is going to bite.
现实会咬人。
Nostalgia is not a strategy.
怀旧不是一种策略。
You are brilliant.
你很聪明。
Please continue to speak truth to power.
请继续向权力说真话。