San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin on What's Actually Happening in the Economy
I sat down with President Mary C.
我与玛丽·C.总统坐下来。
Daly, President and CEO of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, and President Tom Barkin, President and CEO of the Richmond Federal Reserve to talk about the current state of the US economy as we go into 2026.
旧金山联邦储备银行行长兼首席执行官戴利和里士满联邦储备银行行长兼首席执行官汤姆·巴尔金讨论了进入 2026 年的美国经济现状。
We look back to the past, particularly the 1970s and the 1990s, to understand what those periods can teach us about inflation and policy decisions today.
我们回顾过去，特别是 20 世纪 70 年代和 1990 年代，以了解这些时期可以教会我们有关当今通胀和政策决策的哪些知识。
We also talk about the persistent uncertainty we are facing in geopolitics and technology, and the growing gap between the economic data and how people feel.
我们还讨论了我们在地缘政治和技术方面面临的持续不确定性，以及经济数据与人们感受之间日益扩大的差距。
We talk about the headwinds we are facing and the tailwinds to be excited about.
我们谈论我们面临的逆风和令人兴奋的顺风。
And finally, we spend time on what’s often missed in these conversations - the sources of resilience and the reasons that there is still room for optimism.
最后，我们花时间讨论这些对话中经常被忽略的内容——韧性的来源以及仍然有乐观空间的原因。
This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity and flow.
为了清晰和流畅，本文字记录经过了轻微编辑。
Above is the audio version, which is also available wherever you listen to podcasts.
以上是音频版本，无论您在哪里收听播客，都可以使用该版本。
This is a reader-supported publication.
这是一本由读者支持的出版物。
To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a paid subscriber.
要接收新帖子并支持我的工作，请考虑成为付费订阅者。
Kyla: President Daly, a lot of people are looking to the past to try and find some answers around the future, and you recently wrote a blog post talking about the push and pull that we’ve experienced with the 1990s and 1970s.
凯拉：戴利总统，很多人都在回顾过去，试图为未来找到一些答案，您最近写了一篇博文，谈论我们在 20 世纪 90 年代和 1970 年代经历的推拉。
A lot of people are pointing to those times as comparison points.
很多人都将那些时期作为比较点。
What do those two decades teach us about what we’re going through right now?
关于我们现在正在经历的事情，这二十年教会了我们什么？
President Daly: People refer to those two decades often because they’re in our living memory.
戴利总统：人们经常提及那二十年，因为它们就在我们的记忆中。
Both were periods when inflation was above target and we were worried about how monetary policy should respond.
这两个时期的通胀都高于目标，我们担心货币政策应如何应对。
In the 1970s, policymakers saw a weakening labor market and worked to offset it, but they missed a very important component of the economy, which was a productivity growth slowdown.
20 世纪 70 年代，政策制定者看到劳动力市场疲软，并努力抵消其影响，但他们忽略了经济的一个非常重要的组成部分，即生产率增长放缓。
The result was well known.
结果是众所周知的。
We had very high inflation and it took the Volcker disinflation to bring it down.
我们的通货膨胀率非常高，沃尔克通货紧缩才将其降低。
That’s a period we definitely want to avoid.
这是我们绝对想避免的时期。
The 1990s was a period when we also had above target inflation, around 3%.
20 世纪 90 年代，通胀率也高于目标，约为 3%。
But policymakers decided to wait and not raise the policy rate to offset it because they saw the computer coming out and wondered if that was going to spur productivity growth.
但政策制定者决定等待，而不是提高政策利率来抵消它，因为他们看到了计算机的出现，并想知道这是否会刺激生产率的增长。
Productivity growth can spur the economy so we can grow faster, but it’s not inflationary.
生产力的增长可以刺激经济，使我们能够更快地增长，但它不会导致通货膨胀。
In fact, it often brings inflation down.
事实上，它常常会降低通货膨胀。
You put those two decades together and it really dovetails what we have.
你把这二十年放在一起，它确实与我们所拥有的相吻合。
We have above target inflation.
我们的通胀率高于目标。
We have a slowing labor market, and we have AI, which looks like it could be a productivity boom, but we don’t know yet.
我们的劳动力市场正在放缓，我们有人工智能，这看起来可能会带来生产力的繁荣，但我们还不知道。
History doesn’t repeat itself exactly, but those two decades show us the span of things that we have to consider as we navigate the future decade ahead of us.
历史不会完全重演，但这二十年向我们展示了我们在未来十年中必须考虑的事情。
Kyla: Are there any key warning signals that people can pay attention to that would drive us toward a more 1970s outcome than a 1990s outcome?
凯拉：是否有任何重要的警告信号值得人们关注，从而推动我们走向 70 年代的结果而不是 90 年代的结果？
President Daly: Absolutely - you can look at inflation expectations.
戴利总统：当然可以——你可以看看通胀预期。
That is something that rose rapidly in the 1970s as inflation rose, and it was really hard to bring it back down.
在 20 世纪 70 年代，随着通货膨胀的上升，这一数字迅速上升，而且很难回落。
So people expected high inflation and that contributed to inflation continuing to be high.
因此，人们预计高通胀，这导致通胀持续走高。
We certainly experienced our version of that in the post-pandemic inflation runup.
我们当然在大流行后的通胀上升中经历了我们的版本。
Inflation expectations of the short and medium frequency rose and that was very worrisome to policymakers because that’s a sign that we’re losing credibility.
短期和中频通胀预期上升，这令政策制定者非常担忧，因为这是我们正在失去信誉的迹象。
We want to make sure we have that.
我们想确保我们拥有这一点。
So we went out and we took aggressive action and we reiterated countless times that we are determined to bring inflation back to 2%.
所以我们走出去，采取积极行动，无数次重申我们决心将通胀率恢复到2%。
And of course today, inflation expectations are very well anchored at the medium and longer run.
当然，今天的通胀预期很好地锚定在中长期。
They’re barely moving, and I think that’s important as we navigate forward.
他们几乎一动不动，我认为这对于我们前进来说很重要。
But we need to keep an eye on inflation expectations.
但我们需要密切关注通胀预期。
Kyla: President Barkin, what is the modern version of the uncertainty of the 1970s and 1990s today?
凯拉：巴尔金总统，20 世纪 70 年代和 90 年代的不确定性如今的现代版本是什么？
Is it AI?
是人工智能吗？
Is it tariffs?
是关税吗？
Is it immigration?
是移民吗？
Is it something else?
难道是别的什么？
President Barkin: I think it’s actually the persistence of uncertainty.
巴尔金总统：我认为这实际上是不确定性的持续存在。
If you take a step back, let’s just go to the 2010s and you say: what was inflation in the 2010s?
如果退一步，让我们回到 2010 年代，你会说：2010 年代的通货膨胀是多少？
It was somewhere between 1% and 2% every year.
每年大约在 1% 到 2% 之间。
What were interest rates in the 2010s?
2010年代的利率是多少？
They were somewhere between 0% and I think the peak was 2.5%.
它们介于 0% 之间，我认为峰值是 2.5%。
What was happening in geopolitics?
地缘政治发生了什么？
It was pretty stable.
非常稳定。
It was pretty stable, frankly, since the Berlin Wall came down.
坦率地说，自从柏林墙倒塌以来，情况相当稳定。
How about regulation?
监管怎么样？
Imagine being a wind farm manufacturer now back from one administration to another and the technology came through, but the adoption curve was relatively slow compared to what we’re seeing more recently.
想象一下，作为一家风电场制造商，现在从一个政府回到另一个政府，技术已经实现，但与我们最近看到的相比，采用曲线相对缓慢。
I just think you’re going to have higher volatility, higher uncertainty, and that’s going to be a persistent part of the economic environment.
我只是认为，波动性和不确定性将会更高，这将成为经济环境中持续存在的一部分。
People are going to have to do things about that.
人们将不得不为此采取行动。
It’s not like that’s never happened before, but I actually look back in the last 40 years and I think that was relatively stable compared to the environment we’re in and are likely headed toward.
这并不是以前从未发生过，但我实际上回顾过去 40 年，我认为与我们所处的环境和可能走向的环境相比，这是相对稳定的。
Kyla: What does that mean for the everyday person?
凯拉：这对普通人意味着什么？
In the last 40 years, you had the growth of suburbia, you had the growth of the white collar jobs - it seemed like everything would be stable for a very long time.
在过去的 40 年里，郊区不断发展，白领工作不断增长——似乎一切都会在很长一段时间内保持稳定。
How can the average person think about this rise of uncertainty?
普通人如何看待这种不确定性的上升？
President Barkin: I think if you’ve got more volatility and more uncertainty, you may want to have a few more assets in your pocket to help you deal with it.
巴尔金总统：我认为，如果你面临更多的波动性和更多的不确定性，你可能希望口袋里有更多的资产来帮助你应对。
I think if you’re running a small business or even a bigger business, you want to be thinking about multiple options.
我认为，如果您经营一家小型企业甚至一家更大的企业，您需要考虑多种选择。
A good example is I talked to lots of companies who have their entire supply chains in China, and you go right now, wow, when did they make that decision?
一个很好的例子是，我与许多在中国拥有整个供应链的公司进行了交谈，你现在就想，哇，他们什么时候做出这个决定的？
I mean, at what point did that seem to make a lot of sense?
我的意思是，在什么时候这看起来很有意义？
You could say the same thing about Germany having its natural gas all coming from Russia.
对于德国的天然气全部来自俄罗斯，你也可以说同样的话。
When did that make sense?
这什么时候有意义了？
Well, there was a time where it did, but maybe now we’re in a time where you want to have multiple vectors, multiple options, multiple irons in the fire, given the risk that things are going to change.
嗯，曾经有一段时间确实如此，但也许现在我们正处于一个你想要有多个向量、多个选项、多个熨斗的时代，考虑到事情会发生变化的风险。
Kyla: President Daly, when you look back to the 1990s, do you feel like AI can be what the internet was for the economy back then?
Kyla：戴利总统，当您回顾 20 世纪 90 年代时，您是否觉得人工智能可以像互联网对经济的作用一样？
President Daly: It’s really hard to say at this point.
戴利总统：目前还很难说。
Some people would argue it’s going to be much larger than computers and the internet, and that it’s going to be electricity and the steam engine.
有些人会认为它将比计算机和互联网大得多，而且将是电力和蒸汽机。
I think there’s a lot of views out there, but we really have to collect more information.
我认为有很多观点，但我们确实需要收集更多信息。
What I see that’s similar in the computer revolution and the internet revolution that led to the productivity boom of the 1990s is that people are using it.
我认为计算机革命和互联网革命带来的 20 世纪 90 年代生产力繁荣的相似之处在于人们都在使用它。
We don’t usually see it in the data until well into the using it stage.
在进入使用阶段之前，我们通常不会在数据中看到它。
Firms are starting to experiment.
企业开始尝试。
Many firms are using it for their various types of operations, but we’re in very early days.
许多公司正在将其用于各种类型的运营，但我们还处于早期阶段。
I think to just assume that it’s going to be computers or it’s going to be electricity, we need proof of that.
我认为假设它将是计算机或电力，我们需要证明这一点。
There’s certainly something there.
那里肯定有什么东西。
I just don’t know the scope of it, the magnitude of it, and the timing of it.
我只是不知道它的范围、程度和时间。
I’m not an enthusiast, but I’m also not a doomsayer on this.
我不是一个热衷者，但我也不是一个末日论者。
I do think people are rightfully asking, how will my job be affected by this?
我确实认为人们有理由问，我的工作将受到怎样的影响？
So it’s causing worker insecurity in a way that does remind me of the computer age.
因此，它导致了工人的不安全感，这确实让我想起了计算机时代。
There was a lot of worker insecurity in the 1990s.
20 世纪 90 年代，工人存在很多不安全感。
People were nervous about their jobs.
人们对自己的工作感到紧张。
They were nervous that technology would take them.
他们担心技术会带走他们。
But President Barkin referenced periods of history that if you go back to when manufacturing floors were being automated, steel workers were nervous about their jobs and car manufacturers were nervous about their jobs.
但巴尔金总统提到了历史时期，如果你回到生产车间自动化的时代，钢铁工人对他们的工作感到紧张，汽车制造商对他们的工作感到紧张。
So we’ve lived through these periods of extreme anxiety about technology taking employment.
因此，我们经历了对技术夺取就业感到极度焦虑的时期。
What’s different this time around is that tech workers are worried about it and not your manufacturing workers.
这次的不同之处在于，技术工人而不是制造工人担心这一点。
I think that is a different group of people that is often younger and often have not experienced a period of volatility as President Barkin said, or a period of the sort of job loss that could affect them.
我认为这是一群不同的人，他们通常更年轻，通常没有经历过巴尔金总统所说的波动时期，也没有经历过可能影响他们的失业时期。
But so far we’re hearing most of our firms in the 9 Western states, the 12th district, they’re augmenting their workforce, not replacing it with AI.
但到目前为止，我们听说西部 9 个州、第 12 区的大多数公司都在增加劳动力，而不是用人工智能取代。
Kyla: President Barkin, the economy is very strong on paper, but when we look at consumer sentiment, it’s struggled, especially since about 2022.
凯拉：巴尔金总统，纸面上的经济非常强劲，但当我们观察消费者信心时，情况却很艰难，尤其是自 2022 年左右以来。
You’ve talked a bit about your confidence in the economy even during this year of uncertainty.
您谈到了即使在今年充满不确定性的情况下，您对经济的信心。
When you see that mismatch between sentiment and economic data where people are feeling really bad, but the economic data is good, what do you think is driving that?
当您看到情绪与经济数据之间的不匹配时，人们感觉非常糟糕，但经济数据却很好，您认为是什么推动了这种情况？
President Barkin: I think historically there was a pretty good correlation between consumer sentiment and consumer spending.
巴尔金总统：我认为从历史上看，消费者情绪和消费者支出之间存在很好的相关性。
If you felt good about the economy you spent, if you felt bad about the economy, you didn’t.
如果你对你所花的经济感觉良好，如果你对经济感觉不好，你就没有。
That kind of got unbound in 2022.
这种情况到 2022 年就会不受约束。
We saw very weak consumer sentiment with still very strong spending.
我们看到消费者信心非常疲弱，但支出仍然非常强劲。
And I think 2022 is very clear, that was inflation.
我认为 2022 年非常明确，那就是通货膨胀。
It turns out when prices go up the way they did in 2022, people don’t like it.
事实证明，当价格像 2022 年那样上涨时，人们并不喜欢。
The point I keep making is we all have rediscovered how much we hate inflation.
我一直强调的一点是，我们都重新发现了我们是多么讨厌通货膨胀。
Frankly, it’s just exhausting for folks to receive a price and think that’s too high and then know you’ve got to go shop it around and negotiate.
坦率地说，人们在收到价格后认为价格太高，然后知道必须去货比三家并进行谈判，这真是令人筋疲力尽。
Or if you’re in a small business and your supplier comes in there and you’re trying to go to another source, it just takes a ton of work and it really wears people out.
或者，如果您经营一家小企业，而您的供应商进来了，而您正试图寻找其他来源，那么这只需要大量的工作，而且确实会让人疲惫不堪。
I think that had a huge impact on sentiment in 2022.
我认为这对 2022 年的情绪产生了巨大影响。
So now we’re in 2026.
现在我们已经到了 2026 年了。
Consumer sentiment is low again, and spending still seems to be relatively healthy.
消费者信心再次低迷，支出似乎仍然相对健康。
Part of the story continues to be prices.
故事的一部分仍然是价格。
Maybe it’s not inflation as much as it is just the price level.
也许这不是通货膨胀，而只是价格水平。
Will I be able to afford a house?
我能买得起房子吗？
Why does this stuff cost so much?
为什么这个东西要这么贵？
It may not have gone up so much year over year, but it’s still high from recent memory.
它可能没有逐年上涨那么多，但从最近的记忆来看，它仍然很高。
I’ll just remind Mary and I that in the 1970s our grandparents told us that Cokes used to cost a nickel and, and they did use to cost a nickel, but that was like 50 years ago, and my grandparents were ancient, but who cares?
我只想提醒玛丽和我，在 20 世纪 70 年代，我们的祖父母告诉我们，可乐过去要花 5 分钱，而且过去确实也花 5 分钱，但那是 50 年前的事了，我的祖父母已经很老了，但谁在乎呢？
But today it feels like Cokes cost a nickel three days, three years ago.
但今天，可乐就像三年前一样，三天才卖五分钱。
It’s just so recent.
这只是最近的事情。
So that’s part of it.
这就是其中的一部分。
So that first part I know to be true.
所以我知道第一部分是真实的。
The second part, I’m just speculating, but every time I walk out of a meeting, I pick up my phone.
第二部分，我只是猜测，但每次我走出会议时，我都会拿起手机。
On that phone are a bunch of notifications.
那部手机上有一堆通知。
And the notifications are all negative.
而且通知都是负面的。
It’s tariff, tariff, tariff, tariff, tariff.
这是关税，关税，关税，关税，关税。
It’s Venezuela, Venezuela, Venezuela.
这是委内瑞拉，委内瑞拉，委内瑞拉。
It’s whatever the news of the day was.
不管当天的新闻是什么。
No one says another great day for the US economy in those notifications.
这些通知中没有人说美国经济又迎来了伟大的一天。
I do think that brings people down.
我确实认为这会让人们沮丧。
It was true when it was inflation.
当通货膨胀的时候确实如此。
It’s true.
这是真的。
It’s tariffs.
这是关税。
It’s true with the pace of change today.
当今的变革步伐确实如此。
I think that’s got an effect on sentiment as well.
我认为这也会对情绪产生影响。
Spending continues and I think you have to then get to the dynamics of spending, which is unemployment on a historic basis is still pretty low.
支出仍在继续，我认为你必须了解支出的动态，即历史上的失业率仍然相当低。
4.6% is the lowest it’s been in the last 50 years, other than the late 1990s, the late 2010s and 2007 - so still relatively low.
4.6% 是过去 50 年来的最低水平，除了 90 年代末、2010 年代末和 2007 年之外，所以仍然相对较低。
People have jobs, wages are up, and the stock market’s healthy.
人们有工作，工资上涨，股市健康。
So people have money and even though they don’t feel good about it, they’re still spending.
所以人们有钱，即使他们感觉不舒服，他们仍然在花钱。
Kyla: You had an interesting anecdote in your 2026 outlook where you quoted a local restaurant that saw a foot traffic decline if the stock market declined on that day.
凯拉：您在 2026 年展望中提到了一个有趣的轶事，您引用了一家当地餐厅的说法，如果当天股市下跌，该餐厅的客流量就会下降。
So essentially, stock market performance and consumer health might be pretty closely tied together.
因此，从本质上讲，股市表现和消费者健康可能密切相关。
A lot of spending is driven by higher income consumers .
许多支出是由高收入消费者推动的。
So when you think about that disparity, how does that frame how you think about the economy?
那么，当您考虑这种差异时，您如何看待经济？
President Barkin: Well, there’s no question it’s true.
巴尔金总统：嗯，毫无疑问这是真的。
If you look at Darden Foods, for example, and look at their high-end brands like Capital Grill and compare it to their lower end brands, the spending’s much higher there.
例如，如果你看看 Darden Foods，看看他们的高端品牌如 Capital Grill，并将其与低端品牌进行比较，你会发现那里的支出要高得多。
If you talk to the airlines, they’ll tell you the front of the plane is full and the back is not.
如果您与航空公司联系，他们会告诉您飞机的前部已满员，而后部则没有。
The hotel brands experience the same kind of thing.
酒店品牌也经历过同样的事情。
So wealthy people have money, asset values are high, they’re spending more.
所以富人有钱，资产价值高，他们花的钱更多。
I will say the lower income people are still spending but importantly, they’re choosing.
我想说的是，低收入人群仍在消费，但重要的是，他们正在做出选择。
I talked about how frustrated people got with inflation.
我谈到了人们对通货膨胀感到多么沮丧。
People are still very frustrated with high prices, but today they have, I’ll call it the emotional room, to do something about it.
人们仍然对高价格感到非常沮丧，但今天他们（我将其称为“情感空间”）对此采取了一些措施。
In 2022, you just took it.
2022年，你刚刚接受了它。
That’s not what’s happening today.
这不是今天发生的事情。
People are going to Walmart, going generic, postponing a vacation.
人们去沃尔玛，变得普通，推迟假期。
They’re taking action.
他们正在采取行动。
That’s the big difference I’d say.
这就是我想说的最大区别。
Wealthy people, they’re spending, and depending on how wealthy they are, they’re not doing that much negotiating.
富有的人，他们会花钱，并且根据他们的富有程度，他们不会进行太多的谈判。
But the lower income people, they’re still spending, but they don’t want to spend on stuff that’s been priced up.
但低收入人群仍在消费，但他们不想花在价格上涨的东西上。
They’re making choices.
他们正在做出选择。
Kyla: President Daly, the Bank has become much more open in communication.
凯拉：戴利行长，银行的沟通变得更加开放。
You had a great infographic talking about the increase in transparency of the Bank, but you’ve also talked about the importance of being open to change, the importance of nimbleness.
您有一个很棒的信息图，讨论了银行透明度的提高，但您也谈到了对变革持开放态度的重要性，以及灵活性的重要性。
How do you think that the Bank can be more nimble and willing to change?
您认为央行如何才能更加灵活、愿意变革？
President Daly: I really do think we need to be more nimble.
戴利总统：我确实认为我们需要更加灵活。
One of the places I’ve been giving a lot of thought to is this concept of what language do we use to describe things.
我一直在思考的一个地方是我们使用什么语言来描述事物的概念。
We are committed to communicating and we work really hard to do it well.
我们致力于沟通，并且非常努力地做好沟通。
Then we had a term data dependence, which started in the post-financial crisis period when markets and regular people thought, “Hey, we’re going to just be on a preset course.
然后我们有了一个术语“数据依赖”，它始于金融危机后时期，当时市场和普通人认为，“嘿，我们将遵循预设的路线。
As the economy gets out of a ditch, we’re going to start raising the interest rate off the ZLB - off the zero lower bound.”
随着经济走出困境，我们将开始提高零利率下限（零利率下限）的利率。”
So we policymakers put that term together because it was important for that moment.
因此，我们政策制定者将这个术语放在一起，因为它在那一刻很重要。
Now roll forward to today, we’re still using that term, but what it means to people is something quite different than what we intended originally because the context has changed.
现在，我们仍然在使用这个术语，但它对人们的意义与我们最初的意图完全不同，因为上下文已经发生了变化。
So now, largely from how the media thinks about it, how commentators external to the Fed use it, they often mean data point dependent and everybody waits for the next CPI to come out and says, “well, that’s what the Fed’s going to do.”
因此，现在，主要是从媒体如何看待它，以及美联储外部评论员如何使用它来看，他们通常意味着依赖于数据点，每个人都在等待下一个消费者物价指数出来并说，“好吧，这就是美联储要做的事情。”
But we know as policymakers, we’re forecast based.
但我们知道，作为政策制定者，我们是基于预测的。
We’re not data based from last week or last month.
我们不是基于上周或上个月的数据。
We look at the forecast and the inputs go into the forecast, but it’s really how the forecast evolves.
我们查看预测以及预测中的输入，但这实际上是预测的演变方式。
I think that’s an example of where language which was once helpful can end up being a bridle.
我认为这是一个例子，说明曾经有用的语言最终变成了束缚。
So just holding ourselves to the agility to communicate the right language at the right moment.
因此，我们要保持敏捷性，在正确的时刻使用正确的语言进行交流。
Transitory is a word that nobody wants to use anymore.
暂时性这个词已经没人愿意再用了。
I don’t think we should strike it out of the dictionary, but it really overstayed its welcome and we ended up carrying that around and sort of forbidding its use after that.
我不认为我们应该把它从字典中删除，但它确实过时了，我们最终把它带在身边，并在那之后禁止了它的使用。
I do think language is important and you can’t think that something you did 20 years ago still holds today as the right communication device.
我确实认为语言很重要，你不能认为 20 年前所做的事情在今天仍然是正确的沟通工具。
Another place where I think I’ve given a lot of thought on agility is that - we have this balance sheet tool.
我认为我对敏捷性进行了很多思考的另一个地方是——我们有这个资产负债表工具。
We understand in detail what the balance sheet is doing and why it’s not doing one thing, it’s doing this other thing.
我们详细了解资产负债表在做什么，以及为什么它不做一件事，而是做另一件事。
But the public often doesn’t understand that.
但公众常常不理解这一点。
And just speaking more loudly and more directly doesn’t really help.
只是大声、更直接地说话并没有真正的帮助。
Giving people lots of details is not necessarily what they’re looking for.
向人们提供大量细节并不一定是他们想要的。
So committing ourselves to be agile, to respond to the conversation that’s in front of us as opposed to just reading out of the lexicon of the details, I think is really important for us.
因此，我认为，致力于保持敏捷性，对我们面前的对话做出回应，而不是仅仅读出细节的词汇，这对我们来说非常重要。
So whether we’re talking about a tool or a communication phrase, I think just being agile enough to look ourselves in the face of the public, use the public as our mirror and say, “are we being clear and does the public understand what we’re trying to do?” And do they ultimately walk away trusting that we’re doing this work on behalf of them, which is the entire purpose.
因此，无论我们谈论的是工具还是沟通短语，我认为只要足够敏捷地面对公众，以公众为镜子，问自己：“我们是否清楚，公众是否理解我们想要做什么？”他们最终是否会相信我们正在代表他们做这项工作，这就是整个目的。
Can I follow up with that, Kyla, on something Tom said, because it was really important.
凯拉，我可以跟进一下汤姆说的话吗，因为这真的很重要。
There’s research out there that says Tom’s observation is exactly right and that research comes out of the San Francisco Fed, but other places as well - people don’t think of things and then the media writes about them.
有研究表明汤姆的观察完全正确，这项研究来自旧金山联储，但其他地方也一样——人们不会想到事情，然后媒体就会报道它们。
The sentiment that the media reflects often gets translated into people’s views.
媒体反映的情绪往往会转化为人们的观点。
So in the period where the commentators only talked about how high inflation was and how rapidly it would rise, people thought, “oh, that’s right.” And so the more negative news we get, the more that’s going to depress some sentiment.
因此，在评论员只谈论通货膨胀有多高以及上涨速度有多快的时期，人们会想，“哦，是的。”因此，我们收到的负面消息越多，就越会抑制一些情绪。
We really have to be thoughtful about what people are getting.
我们确实必须考虑人们得到了什么。
Then how does it make them feel?
那么这让他们感觉如何？
Then how does that create a divide?
那么这又是如何造成分歧的呢？
And that’s important for us as policy makers in my judgment, because if it’s otherwise, it’s like a loop, right?
根据我的判断，这对我们作为政策制定者来说很重要，因为如果不是这样，那就就像一个循环，对吧？
The commentators say it, the people feel it, that we respond to it.
评论员这么说，人们感觉到，我们对此做出回应。
We end up in a loop that goes the wrong direction if we’re trying to create stability in a time period of uncertainty and volatility.
如果我们试图在一个充满不确定性和波动性的时期创造稳定，我们最终会陷入一个错误方向的循环。
President Barkin: I like the idea of a loop because it goes back to nimbleness.
巴尔金总统：我喜欢循环的想法，因为它可以回归灵活性。
We’ll do a forecast every quarter and talk about where we see the economy going and based on that, where we see rates going.
我们将每个季度进行一次预测，并讨论我们对经济走向的看法，并在此基础上我们对利率的走向。
And then there’s this loop where the commentators and the media and the markets decide we’ve just promised something.
然后就出现了这样一个循环，评论员、媒体和市场认为我们刚刚承诺了一些事情。
I’ll often go to meetings where someone will say, “oh, I guess you guys promised three more rate cuts this year” or whatever.
我经常去参加会议，有人会说，“哦，我猜你们承诺今年再降息三次”之类的。
And if you want to be nimble, you ought to say, this is a forecast, this isn’t a commitment.
如果你想保持灵活性，你应该说，这是预测，而不是承诺。
That’s a negative reinforcement loop that then makes things stickier as opposed to making you more agile.
这是一个负强化循环，它会让事情变得更加棘手，而不是让你变得更加敏捷。
President Barkin: I think the Kyla Scan podcast is a good start.
巴尔金总统：我认为 Kyla Scan 播客是一个好的开始。
President Daly: I look to young people whenever, whenever I think that we are getting ourselves in a ditch on something.
戴利总统：每当我认为我们在某些事情上陷入困境时，我都会关注年轻人。
I look to young people to say, well, this ditch is very uncomfortable.
我看着年轻人说，嗯，这条沟很不舒服。
We’re only going to get out of it by looking up.
我们只有向上看才能摆脱困境。
So I’m with Tom here, the Kyla Scanlon podcast could be helpful to us, but maybe after 10 notifications of the gloom, we get something positive that says it’s a good day in America or a good day somewhere else.
所以我和 Tom 在一起，Kyla Scanlon 播客可能对我们有帮助，但也许在 10 条忧郁的通知之后，我们会得到一些积极的信息，说这是美国的美好一天或其他地方的美好一天。
It’s a good day in Richmond, or it’s a good day in San Francisco.
这是里士满的美好一天，或者是旧金山的美好一天。
That would be helpful.
那会有帮助的。
I’ll just say this.
我就说这个吧。
Regional Fed presidents have spent a lot of time in their communities.
地区联储主席在他们的社区度过了很多时间。
That’s one of the virtues of having the regional Feds.
这是设立地区联储的优点之一。
When we’re out there in our communities, we’re not only hearing gloomy things, which is important, but people are also making business decisions.
当我们在社区中时，我们不仅听到令人沮丧的事情（这一点很重要），而且人们也在做出商业决策。
I count cranes because people might be gloomy, but they’re putting up cranes to build stuff, and that tells me something positive.
我数起重机是因为人们可能很阴郁，但他们正在架起起重机来建造东西，这告诉了我一些积极的事情。
Kyla: That’s actually one of my favorite things to do when I travel is take pictures of cranes, because it is a really good regional economic indicator.
凯拉：实际上，我旅行时最喜欢做的事情之一就是给起重机拍照，因为它是一个非常好的区域经济指标。
Could you actually expand upon that?
您实际上可以对此进行扩展吗？
Because I read that in one of your notes and thought it was such an interesting point, how powerful seeing a crane is for the local economy.
因为我在你的一篇笔记中读到了这一点，并认为这是一个非常有趣的观点，看到起重机对当地经济有多么强大。
President Daly: It’s very powerful.
戴利总统：非常强大。
One of the things that I’ve learned in doing this job is that people might say they’re afraid, but the question you have to ask next to that is, what are you doing?
我在做这项工作时学到的一件事是，人们可能会说他们害怕，但接下来你要问的问题是，你在做什么？
And if the fear is influencing their behavior, that’s important to know.
如果恐惧正在影响他们的行为，那么了解这一点很重要。
But one of the things that happened after tariffs were announced is I went to Utah and people were talking about them, but they were still putting up new cranes and they were working on existing cranes.
但关税宣布后发生的一件事是，我去了犹他州，人们正在谈论它们，但他们仍在安装新的起重机，并在现有的起重机上工作。
Cranes are expensive, right?
起重机很贵吧？
And it’s not just fixed cost.
这不仅仅是固定成本。
There’s a variable cost to this because you have to move the crane up and down.
这会产生可变成本，因为您必须上下移动起重机。
You’re still putting things together.
你还在把事情放在一起。
They were still actively working these cranes and they were springing up all over.
他们仍然在积极地操作这些起重机，而且它们到处都在涌现。
It just tells me that even in periods of time when people feel uncertain or the world is more volatile, good things still happen and people still make investments in their future.
它只是告诉我，即使在人们感到不确定或世界更加动荡的时期，好事仍然会发生，人们仍然会对未来进行投资。
Might be different than what they would do if they were unconstrained by uncertainty, but they’re certainly still active.
如果他们不受不确定性的约束，他们的做法可能会有所不同，但他们肯定仍然很活跃。
So other metrics I use too is when I’m worried about consumer spending, I go to parking lots of retailers and I don’t just go to the ones that wealthy shoppers go to, I go to the other ones and I look in their carts, what are they buying and how are they making decisions and how full are the parking lots?
因此，我也使用的其他指标是，当我担心消费者支出时，我会去零售商的停车场，我不只是去富裕购物者去的停车场，我还会去其他零售商，查看他们的购物车，他们在买什么，他们是如何做出决定的，以及停车场有多满？
When they start to get worried is when the retailers are telling me there’s not accumulating inventories because they’re worried about demand and the parking lots have spaces up near the front of the store.
当他们开始担心时，零售商告诉我，他们没有积累库存，因为他们担心需求，而且停车场靠近商店前面有停车位。
Then you start to say, “okay, this is bleeding in.” Right now, I’m not seeing that.
然后你开始说：“好吧，这正在流血。”现在，我还没有看到这一点。
We have many months ahead of us to look in the parking lot.
我们还有好几个月的时间去停车场寻找。
Kyla: President Barkin, do you have any more non-traditional economic indicators like that you look at when you’re going to local businesses?
凯拉：巴尔金总统，您在考察当地企业时是否还会考虑类似的非传统经济指标？
President Barkin: I do it a little differently, which is I like to take the consensus and go do small business roundtables and put the consensus on the table.
巴尔金总统：我的做法有点不同，我喜欢采取共识，参加小型企业圆桌会议，并将共识摆在桌面上。
So somebody will say, tariffs are going to drive up prices.
所以有人会说，关税会推高价格。
Alright, let’s have a conversation.
好吧，我们来谈谈吧。
Who’s taking up prices because of tariffs?
谁因关税而抬高价格？
We have conversations about the labor markets ticked up, who’s planning layoffs - and the thing about layoffs is you don’t just do them immediately.
我们讨论了劳动力市场的升温、谁正在计划裁员——而裁员的关键在于你不能立即进行裁员。
You have to think about it.
你必须考虑一下。
You have to plan it, you have to do a WARN notification if it’s at any kind of scale.
你必须对其进行计划，无论其规模如何，你都必须发出警告通知。
So you can tell two months ahead of time whether the sizable companies you’re talking to are planning layoffs or not.
因此，您可以提前两个月得知与您交谈的大型公司是否计划裁员。
I ask people, in November, what your budget assumptions are for next year in terms of price increases and comp increases?
我在 11 月份问人们，你们对明年价格上涨和薪酬上涨的预算假设是什么？
So I take the consensus and then I try to sit down with a bunch of businesses and test it and it happens a lot that what’s actually happening is not at all what you think is happening.
因此，我接受了共识，然后尝试与一群企业坐下来进行测试，结果很多时候实际发生的事情根本不是你想象的那样。
President Daly: Yeah, absolutely.
戴利总统：是的，绝对如此。
Tom, maybe you’ll agree or not, but I think that one of the values of being out in the region is the presidents across the entire US, all of us are out doing roundtables and other types of things, but we’re checking the common wisdom you have.
汤姆，也许你会同意或不同意，但我认为在该地区的价值之一是整个美国的总统，我们所有人都出去参加圆桌会议和其他类型的事情，但我们正在检查你拥有的共同智慧。
We just had an FOMC and just made a policy decision, and then you come out and you think, is this what businesses are doing?
我们刚刚召开了联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC)，刚刚做出了一项政策决定，然后你出来想，这是企业正在做的事情吗？
Does our modal outlook really jive with what businesses are actually doing?
我们的模式前景真的与企业实际所做的事情相符吗？
And that’s why going back to Washington 8 times a year and talking to each other is so useful.
这就是为什么每年回到华盛顿 8 次并互相交谈如此有用。
Kyla: President Daly, one thing that has really come up in the economy over the past year is most of the job growth has been concentrated in healthcare and social services and most of the economic growth has been, partly due to AI.
凯拉：戴利总统，过去一年经济中真正出现的一件事是，大部分就业增长都集中在医疗保健和社会服务领域，而大部分经济增长部分归功于人工智能。
When you think about that dynamic, how does that make you think about the economy over the course of 2026?
当您考虑这种动态时，您对 2026 年的经济有何看法？
President Daly: Well, if you do look at GDP growth, you see two things driving it, and the investment that’s driving it is really in AI and it’s in a narrow set of AI producing sectors, and that’s important for us to watch.
戴利总统：嗯，如果你确实关注 GDP 增长，你会发现有两件事在推动它，推动它的投资实际上是在人工智能领域，而且是在一小部分人工智能生产领域，这对我们来说很重要。
Data centers are contributing a lot to the investment.
数据中心对投资贡献很大。
AI model makers are contributing a lot.
AI模型制作者做出了很多贡献。
That’s not a long-term sustainability play, but it’s certainly boosting activity at this point.
这不是一个长期的可持续发展游戏，但它肯定会促进目前的活动。
On healthcare and social services, you shouldn’t really be surprised that healthcare is growing.
在医疗保健和社会服务方面，您不应该对医疗保健的增长感到惊讶。
The population’s aging at a rapid clip here, and so people need more services as they get older.
这里的人口老龄化速度很快，因此随着年龄的增长，人们需要更多的服务。
So that’s not surprising to me.
所以这对我来说并不奇怪。
And healthcare is a job.
医疗保健是一项工作。
It is still employment.
依然是就业。
What worries people is the lack of diversification.
人们担心的是缺乏多元化。
Going back to what Tom said about diversification, you need a diversified economy going forward to ensure that you take in as many people as are being produced and who want to work.
回到汤姆所说的多元化，未来需要多元化的经济，以确保吸纳尽可能多的正在生产的和想要工作的人。
Because not everybody’s going to work in healthcare.
因为不是每个人都会从事医疗保健工作。
That’s where I think people are recognizing that the labor market really is slower than it was.
我认为这就是人们认识到劳动力市场确实比以前慢的地方。
In 2026, it’s quite possible to have GDP growth reasonably solid and have a labor market that’s just basically moving along, right?
到 2026 年，GDP 增长很可能相当稳健，劳动力市场也基本上在发展，对吗？
Not getting particularly far worse, but not getting much better.
没有变得特别糟糕，但也没有变得更好。
So I think that’s just a gap that can form when you have a new technology that people are excited about and when you have an economy with a lot of uncertainty.
所以我认为，当你拥有一项人们兴奋的新技术，并且当你的经济充满不确定性时，就会形成差距。
President Barkin: I’ll also make the point that the narrowness of the investment being driven by AI is also relevant to the stock market.
巴尔金总统：我还要指出的是，人工智能驱动的投资范围狭窄也与股票市场有关。
I talked about wealthy people earlier, and wealthy people are spending more than less wealthy people.
我之前谈到了有钱人，有钱人比不那么富有的人花钱更多。
If you believe that that’s being supported by the stock market, which I do, then you say, well, how narrowly is the stock market appreciation?
如果你相信这是由股市支撑的，我也这么认为，那么你会说，股市的升值幅度有多大？
You’ve got a set of tech stocks heavily indexed to ai.
你有一组与人工智能密切相关的科技股。
So one of the risks out there is the AI frenzy eases, and then if it eases, you’ve got issues with investment getting cut back and you’ve got issues with valuations getting cut back.
因此，其中的风险之一是人工智能狂热的缓解，如果它缓解了，你就会遇到投资削减的问题，也会遇到估值削减的问题。
And if you say the two big engines of the economy right now are on the investment side, AI and on the spending side, wealthy consumers, you could see those two things going together.
如果你说现在经济的两大引擎是投资方面的人工智能和支出方面的富裕消费者，那么你可以看到这两件事是结合在一起的。
That’s one of the risks I’m watching closely.
这是我密切关注的风险之一。
Kyla: It’s a bit scary.
凯拉：有点吓人。
It feels like it’s just one little domino.
感觉就像是一张小多米诺骨牌。
President Barkin: On the positive side, there is a bunch of stimulus coming into the economy.
巴尔金总统：从积极的一面来看，一系列刺激措施正在进入经济。
Yeah.
是的。
Monetary from what we’ve done.
我们所做的事情带来的金钱。
Fiscal from the, the tax bill last year is going to have big tax refunds this year that should help.
从财政角度来看，去年的税收法案今年将有大量退税，这应该会有所帮助。
Gas prices are down and that frees up money for people to spend.
天然气价格下降，人们可以腾出钱来消费。
I don’t want us to be the iPhone here and only give the bad news.
我不希望我们成为这里的 iPhone，只提供坏消息。
There’s also a good news version of this.
还有一个好消息版本。
President Daly: I think the surprising part about the economy has not been its precariousness, it’s been its resiliency.
戴利总统：我认为经济令人惊讶的部分不是它的不稳定，而是它的弹性。
Now, just think since the pandemic, the pandemic was going to break us, we’re on the precipice of decline because people were going to run out of their excess savings and then they were going to massively pull back.
现在，想想自从大流行以来，大流行将击垮我们，我们正处于衰退的边缘，因为人们将耗尽多余的储蓄，然后他们将大规模撤资。
The job market was going to overheat and spur inflation.
就业市场将会过热并刺激通货膨胀。
These things that come as the grim predictions out of the environment we’re in just haven’t occurred.
这些来自我们所处环境的严峻预测的事情并没有发生。
So that doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t watch them, but I do think it’s important to be cautious about jumping to the worst case scenario just because there’s uncertainty and volatility.
因此，这并不意味着我们不应该关注它们，但我确实认为谨慎行事很重要，不要仅仅因为存在不确定性和波动性而跳入最坏的情况。
Tom started with this.
汤姆以此开始。
What’s the most unusual circumstance we’re in right now?
我们现在所处的最不寻常的情况是什么？
It’s that we have a lot of volatility and much more uncertainty than we had through the whole 40-year period of what’s called the Great Moderation.
而是我们的波动性和不确定性比整个 40 年的“大稳健”时期还要多。
So things were pretty much placid and now suddenly things are highly volatile.
所以事情本来相当平静，但现在突然变得非常不稳定。
People think that is precarious, certainly feels precarious sometimes.
人们认为这是不稳定的，有时确实感觉不稳定。
Then you’re looking for the worst way it can end.
然后你就会寻找最糟糕的结束方式。
But the surprising thing has been the resilience.
但令人惊讶的是它的韧性。
President Barkin: I keep saying if you’re going to predict a recession, you’re going to be right eventually.
巴尔金总统：我一直在说，如果你要预测经济衰退，那么你最终会是对的。
But I’m not sure that means you’re a good forecaster.
但我不确定这是否意味着你是一个优秀的预测者。
It just means you’re a stubborn forecaster.
这仅仅意味着你是一个顽固的预测者。
In our working lifetimes, the recessions have not come out of a gradual economy drifting down into recession.
在我们的工作生涯中，衰退并不是经济逐渐陷入衰退的结果。
They’ve come out of sudden issues like the pandemic, like Lehman Brothers, like 9/11, like the Iraq war.
他们已经摆脱了流行病、雷曼兄弟、9/11、伊拉克战争等突发问题。
So I just make that point, which is all of the forecasting that suggests we’re just going to drift into recession, that would be different from the way it’s worked over the last 40 or 50 years.
所以我只是提出这一点，所有的预测都表明我们将陷入衰退，这将不同于过去 40 或 50 年的运作方式。
Kyla: It’s the very beginning of 2026.
Kyla：现在是 2026 年伊始。
It’s a brand new year, a fresh start in a lot of ways.
这是全新的一年，在很多方面都是一个新的开始。
What is the one thing that you’re thinking about as you go into this year?
进入今年，您正在考虑的一件事是什么？
President Daly: We’ve come out of this period where we had high inflation, really high inflation, and a just good labor market and solid GDP growth and now we’re in a period where it looks like GDP growth is okay and the labor market has softened.
戴利总统：我们已经摆脱了高通胀、非常高的通胀、良好的劳动力市场和稳健的 GDP 增长的时期，现在我们正处于 GDP 增长良好、劳动力市场疲软的时期。
So we had a policy move to try to offset that.
因此，我们采取了一项政策举措来试图抵消这一影响。
We have inflation still printing above target and it’s going to be tempting for everybody to just look at what the next data point says, but we really need to back up and, and think about what are the longer-term drivers of the economy?
我们的通胀仍然高于目标，每个人都会很想看看下一个数据点的内容，但我们确实需要支持并思考经济的长期驱动因素是什么？
How are things shaping up over the next couple of years?
未来几年情况如何？
We’re in the fine-tuning component of policy, we’re a stone’s throw from the neutral rate for some forecasters, we’re by the neutral rate of interest, for others, we have a little bit more room.
我们正处于政策的微调部分，对于一些预测者来说，我们离中性利率只有一步之遥，对于其他人来说，我们还有更多的空间。
We’re not in a place where we’re making large policy moves.
我们目前还没有采取重大政策举措。
We’re in a place where we’re fine tuning as the economy evolves.
我们正处于随着经济发展而进行微调的阶段。
Having that, I’m really trying to be thoughtful about the discipline it takes to be in a period where you’re not trying to fight a big war, you’re trying to manage the small movements and think about the longer-term settling places for the economy and for interest rates and, and while we’re all trying to get price stability and preserve the soundness of the labor market.
考虑到这一点，我真的在努力思考在一个时期所需要的纪律，在这个时期，你不是试图打一场大战，而是试图管理小规模的变动，并考虑经济和利率的长期解决方案，同时我们都在努力实现价格稳定并保持劳动力市场的健全。
President Barkin: If I have one thing, it’d be, we’re in this low hire, low fire environment.
巴尔金总统：如果要我说一件事的话，那就是，我们正处于低雇佣、低火力的环境中。
It’s not normal, but it’s not terrible.
这不正常，但也不可怕。
It’s just a different kind of environment.
这只是一种不同的环境。
But it doesn’t feel like one that’s going to persist.
但感觉不会持续下去。
So is it going to break more toward hiring or break more toward firing?
那么，是会更多地减少招聘还是解雇呢？
The break more toward firing is a situation we can all envision.
更多地走向解雇是我们都可以想象的情况。
Companies start announcing layoffs and all of the sudden the downsizing leads to all kinds of pullback.
公司开始宣布裁员，突然之间，裁员导致各种回调。
But I’m also looking for a break toward the hiring piece of it.
但我也在寻找招聘方面的突破口。
There are two things worth considering:
有两件事值得考虑：
If demand stays as strong as it is, eventually people are going to need to hire folks to fulfill that demand.
如果需求保持强劲，最终人们将需要雇用人员来满足这一需求。
If everyone starts going to restaurants and someone’s going to have to serve the meals and I’m looking for that break.
如果每个人都开始去餐馆，而有人必须提供饭菜，我就会寻找休息时间。
We talked a lot about AI.
我们谈论了很多关于人工智能的话题。
But I keep asking myself, if you really think AI is going to be fundamental, who are you going to hire?
但我一直在问自己，如果你真的认为人工智能将成为基础，你会雇用谁？
Me or somebody who’s technologically literate enough to actually deliver greater results with AI?
我或具有足够技术素养的人可以通过人工智能真正取得更好的成果吗？
I think that’s going to be good for the young people who today are not getting jobs because people are having temporary hiring for reasons.
我认为这对今天找不到工作的年轻人来说是件好事，因为人们出于某种原因进行临时招聘。
So I’m looking for that break too, where people say I’m going to really invest in AI and to do that, I’ve got to hire the AI literate at some scale.
所以我也在寻找突破口，人们说我将真正投资人工智能，要做到这一点，我必须雇用一定规模的人工智能人才。
So we’ll see.
所以我们拭目以待。
But I’m really watching the hiring and the layoff market very closely.
但我确实非常密切地关注招聘和裁员市场。
I think President Barkin’s point about the persistence of uncertainty really matters as we look into 2026, and the way to navigate it best is through diversification across the board.
我认为，在我们展望 2026 年时，巴尔金总统关于不确定性持续存在的观点确实很重要，而驾驭这一趋势的最佳方法是全面多元化。
President Daly’s 1970s vs 1990s framing is really useful.
戴利总统的 1970 年代与 1990 年代框架非常有用。
It gives two concrete historical precedents with very different outcomes, and the key differences between the two was technology and policy response.
它提供了两个结果截然不同的具体历史先例，两者之间的主要区别在于技术和政策反应。
So now, the key variable is if AI delivers real productivity gains which is something nobody can know yet.
因此，现在的关键变量是人工智能是否能带来真正的生产力提升，目前尚无人知晓。
What’s interesting too is how much they’re complementing traditional data with direct observation.
同样有趣的是他们通过直接观察对传统数据进行了多少补充。
Sometimes talking to people about what they’re actually doing tells you more than waiting for the lagging data to confirm it, and it can help make sense of inflation expectations, which is the key warning signal for President Daly.
有时，与人们谈论他们实际在做什么比等待滞后数据来证实更能告诉你，它可以帮助理解通胀预期，这是戴利总统发出的关键警告信号。
The extraordinarily persistent sentiment-spending disconnect is genuinely puzzling, and I do think people are frustrated by high price levels.
情绪支出与消费之间异常持续的脱节确实令人费解，而且我确实认为人们对高物价水平感到沮丧。
Yet they’re still spending because employment is solid and wages have kept up.
但他们仍在消费，因为就业稳定且工资上涨。
President Barkin’s point about wealthy consumers being supported by asset gains while lower-income consumers are making deliberate trade downs also helps explain why aggregate spending looks okay even when sentiment is terrible.
巴尔金总统关于富裕消费者受到资产收益支持而低收入消费者有意减少消费的观点也有助于解释为什么即使在情绪糟糕的情况下总支出看起来还不错。
There were a lot of breaking points too in the conversation - the delicate balance of a low-fire, low-hire environment, the delicate balance of a lower-income consumer trading down, the delicate balance of a healthcare-driven labor market and an AI-driven economy.
谈话中也存在很多突破点——低火力、低雇佣环境的微妙平衡，低收入消费者降价消费的微妙平衡，医疗保健驱动的劳动力市场和人工智能驱动的经济之间的微妙平衡。
And President Barkin flags a particularly concerning concentration risk: both the investment boom (AI, data centers) and consumer spending (wealthy people with stock portfolios) are narrow and interconnected.
巴尔金总统指出了一个特别令人担忧的集中风险：投资热潮（人工智能、数据中心）和消费者支出（拥有股票投资组合的富人）都是狭窄且相互关联的。
If AI enthusiasm wanes, you could lose both engines at once.
如果人工智能热情消退，你可能会同时失去两个引擎。
But again, all the predicted breaking points - excess savings running out, overheating, labor market collapse - haven't materialized.
但同样，所有预测的临界点——过剩储蓄耗尽、过热、劳动力市场崩溃——都没有成为现实。
The economy keeps completely not breaking when people expect it to.
当人们期望经济崩溃时，经济并没有完全崩溃。
The communication challenges are real.
沟通方面的挑战是真实存在的。
President Daly’s shows the Fed is actively thinking about how their language gets interpreted and creates feedback loops in this extremely fast attention economy.
戴利总统的言论表明，美联储正在积极思考如何在这个极快的注意力经济中解释他们的语言并创建反馈循环。
And President Barkin’s point about recessions coming from sudden shocks rather than gradual drift is important.
巴尔金总统关于衰退源于突然冲击而非逐渐漂移的观点很重要。
The current slowing doesn’t automatically lead to recession.
当前的放缓不会自动导致经济衰退。
There are actual tailwinds: monetary stimulus from rate cuts, fiscal stimulus from tax refunds, lower gas prices, which I wish we had more time to talk about.
确实有一些有利因素：降息带来的货币刺激、退税带来的财政刺激、天然气价格下降，我希望我们有更多时间讨论这些问题。
And it’s probably a good rule of thumb to embrace some positivity, amid all the negativity, even if it’s just counting some cranes!
在所有消极情绪中拥抱一些积极情绪可能是一个很好的经验法则，即使只是数一些起重机！
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