How Bible Sales and Chipotle Explain the Economy
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Today is my 22nd day (!) on the road for work this month - seven states so far, ten cities, eleven days to go.
今天是我这个月上班的第 22 天（！）——到目前为止已经有 7 个州，10 个城市，还有 11 天。
Every conversation starts with the economy.
每次谈话都从经济开始。
Interest rates, permits, expanding water and sewer infrastructure, AI initiatives, generational wealth transfers.
利率、许可证、扩大供水和污水基础设施、人工智能计划、代际财富转移。
In New York, I got into a cab to go speak at a conference.
在纽约，我坐上出租车去参加一个会议并发表演讲。
The driver asked where I was headed, I told him to go talk about the economy, and he said “Can you fix it for me?”
司机问我要去哪里，我让他去谈谈经济，他说“你能帮我解决一下吗？”
I wrote about the casino economy in the New York Times on Sunday , arguing that it has now infiltrated both private and public markets at unprecedented speed.
我周日在《纽约时报》上发表了有关赌场经济的文章，认为它现在已经以前所未有的速度渗透到私人和公共市场。
It’s in the stock market, it’s in fiscal policy, it’s in the investments that venture capital firms are making, it’s in prediction markets - it’s everywhere .
它存在于股票市场中，存在于财政政策中，存在于风险投资公司正在进行的投资中，存在于预测市场中——它无处不在。
It’s nothing new 1 !
这不是什么新鲜事1！
But it’s accelerating.
但它正在加速。
And that’s why it sometimes feels like the economy isn’t “good” or “bad” anymore as much as it’s just…
这就是为什么有时感觉经济不再是“好”或“坏”，而是......
tradable ?
可交易？
Half the country is barreling toward recession, 40 million people might lose access to food stamps because of the continued government shutdown , and meanwhile the stock market is acting like we’ve boarded onto a 24/7 all-access party cruise or something.
一半的国家正迅速走向衰退，由于政府持续关门，4000 万人可能会失去食品券，与此同时，股市的表现就像我们已经登上了 24/7 全天候派对游轮之类的。
Apparently, the invisible hand also deals cards.
显然，看不见的手也会发牌。
So - what’s going on beneath the party lights?
那么——派对灯光下发生了什么？
What is the economy actually doing?
经济实际上在做什么？
The Fed cut rates by 25bps again .
美联储再次降息25个基点。
The vote wasn't unanimous - Steve Miran, the most recent appointee, voted for a 50bps cut.
投票结果并不一致——最新任命的史蒂夫·米兰(Steve Miran)投票支持降息50个基点。
Jeff Schmid voted for zero cuts.
杰夫·施密德投票支持零削减。
Everyone else settled on 25.
其他人都选择了25。
It shows how strained managing the dual mandate has become.
这表明管理双重任务已经变得多么紧张。
Powell said tariffs were giving him a giant headache , which yeah.
鲍威尔表示，关税让他非常头疼，是的。
Imagine spending 4 years to get post-pandemic inflation down to 3% and then someone was like “wow…
想象一下，花了 4 年时间将大流行后的通货膨胀率降至 3%，然后有人说“哇......
what if I just…
如果我只是……怎么办？
undid all of that by enacting a tax on imports that companies would immediately pass along to the consumer…
通过对进口商品征税，企业将立即转嫁给消费者，从而消除了这一切……
”
”
Powell also warned that another 25bps cut might not happen this year.
鲍威尔还警告称，今年可能不会再次降息 25 个基点。
The government shutdown means the Fed is flying blind - they don’t have the data they need.
政府关门意味着美联储正在盲目行动——他们没有所需的数据。
The shutdown has cost $18 billion so far (if anyone’s counting).
到目前为止，政府关门已经造成了 180 亿美元的损失（如果有人算的话）。
Inflation isn’t totally fixed (2% is the goal, not 3%) but the labor market is increasingly wobbly, especially now thanks to sweeping job cuts that might be due to a correction from overhiring during the pandemic…
通货膨胀并未完全固定（目标是 2%，而不是 3%），但劳动力市场日益不稳定，尤其是现在，由于大流行期间过度招聘的纠正而导致大规模裁员……
or automation.
或自动化。
The market became immediately enraged when Powell said hey maybe not December, demanding that actually no, financial conditions should actually be even easier as Nvidia hit $5 trillion in market cap and as OpenAI, a company with $20b in revenue, potentially prepares for a $1 trillion IPO after shedding their nonprofit status in a way that feels questionably legal 2 .
当鲍威尔说“嘿，也许不是 12 月”时，市场立即被激怒了，他要求实际上不，随着 Nvidia 的市值达到 5 万亿美元，而 OpenAI，一家收入 200 亿美元的公司，在以一种让人怀疑合法的方式摆脱非营利组织地位后，可能准备进行 1 万亿美元的 IPO 2 ，因此金融状况实际上应该更加容易。
Even easier!
更容易！
Monetary policy has become a mood ring - the Fed is trying to keep markets and consumers feeling confident, but the two groups need very different things.
货币政策已成为情绪环——美联储正试图让市场和消费者保持信心，但这两个群体需要截然不同的东西。
Some of it is structural.
其中一些是结构性的。
Fiscal policy is responsible for fixing the structural issues.
财政政策负责解决结构性问题。
As such, there seems to be no clear path out of the government shutdown?
这样看来，政府关门似乎没有明确的出路？
On November 1st, 40 million people could lose access to SNAP benefits 3 , ~60% of which are children and the elderly .
11 月 1 日，4000 万人可能无法获得 SNAP 福利3，其中约 60% 是儿童和老年人。
It’s illegal for the government to withhold this money , since Congress pre-appropriated $3 billion to cover situations like this.
政府扣留这笔钱是违法的，因为国会预先拨款 30 亿美元来应对此类情况。
4
4
The US is also paying troops (which is good and everyone in the government should get paid 5 ) and just sent $40 billion to Argentina , but somehow can’t find money to feed retirees and kids, so this really feels like it’s about priorities, not constraints.
美国也在向军队支付费用（这很好，政府中的每个人都应该得到报酬 5 ），并且刚刚向阿根廷提供了 400 亿美元，但不知何故找不到钱来养活退休人员和孩子，所以这确实感觉像是优先事项，而不是限制。
And while all this unfolds, President Trump also announced that the newly-titled Department of War would begin nuclear testing , which is a great way to plunge us into a Cold War with China.
在这一切发生的同时，特朗普总统还宣布新命名的战争部将开始核试验，这是让我们与中国陷入冷战的好方法。
Nuclear brinkmanship is fiscal and industrial too, demanding resources that could crowd out the domestic repair that the US needs (and that which was promised).
核边缘政策也涉及财政和工业，所需资源可能会排挤美国需要的（以及承诺的）国内修复。
As Jeffrey Lewis wrote in Foreign Affairs , America’s nuclear advantage exists because China and Russia stopped testing.
正如杰弗里·刘易斯在《外交事务》中所写，美国的核优势之所以存在，是因为中国和俄罗斯停止了核试验。
If they start again (and they will, if we do), that edge disappears.
如果他们重新开始（他们会的，如果我们这样做的话），这种优势就会消失。
The US has two global advantages right now (to extend the metaphor, the only two chips America has left on the table): (1) Trust and (2) Technology.
美国目前拥有两大全球优势（打个比方，美国只剩下两个筹码）：（1）信任和（2）技术。
Trust comes from the dollar, from the Federal Reserve being not politically manipulated to cut rates, from being a good trading partner etc. All of that is, you know, wildly unstable.
信任来自于美元，来自于美联储没有受到政治操纵来降息，来自于作为一个良好的贸易伙伴等等。你知道，所有这一切都非常不稳定。
Technology comes mostly in the form of AI and weapons manufacturing (nuclear as mentioned above).
技术主要以人工智能和武器制造（如上所述的核）的形式出现。
The AI story parallels it.
人工智能的故事与之相似。
Nvidia (the $5 trillion company) is lobbying to sell its best chips to China.
英伟达（市值 5 万亿美元的公司）正在游说将其最好的芯片出售给中国。
Everyone is like hey maybe don’t?
每个人都会说，嘿，也许不是吗？
The IFP has a great piece analyzing the consequences of selling the chips to China , and several analysts have already spoken out against the deal.
IFP 有一篇精彩的文章分析了向中国出售芯片的后果，一些分析师已经公开反对这项交易。
The logic is “what if we, Nvidia, sold our really cool chips to China and therefore the technological edge of the US for one more trillion in valuation?” The topic didn’t come up directly in Trump and Xi’s trade deal conversation, but when there is a lobby, there is a way.
其逻辑是“如果我们英伟达将我们非常酷的芯片出售给中国，从而获得美国的技术优势，估值又增加一万亿美元，会怎样？”这个话题并没有直接出现在特朗普和习近平的贸易协议对话中，但只要有游说，就有办法。
The trade conversation went well it seems.
贸易谈判似乎进展顺利。
A TikTok deal is also in the works, which Xi has called ‘spiritual opium’ .
一项 TikTok 交易也在酝酿之中，习近平称之为“精神鸦片”。
The tariffs on China have also been cut to 10%.
对中国的关税也已降至10%。
It appears we have never left the month of April.
看来我们从未离开过四月。
The Senate has also overturned Trump’s 50% tariffs on Brazil , which is cool because I totally forgot there was a third branch of government.
参议院还推翻了特朗普对巴西征收 50% 的关税，这很酷，因为我完全忘记了还有第三个政府部门。
All of the tariffs might be illegal, depending on the Supreme Court.
所有关税都可能是非法的，具体取决于最高法院。
This specific ruling still has to pass the House and then Trump himself, which won’t happen, but you know, it’s nice, to know that the Senate exists.
这项具体裁决仍需通过众议院，然后是特朗普本人，这不会发生，但你知道，很高兴知道参议院的存在。
Over the past few weeks, I’ve been on a lot of panels that are essentially like “Why Gen Z is Doing That” .
在过去的几周里，我参加了很多小组讨论，本质上都是“为什么 Z 世代要这样做”。
I wrote a piece a few months ago about “Gen Z and the End of Predictable Progress” but it really should have been titled “Why The Economic Ladder Has Completely Changed For Everyone Due to Policy Choices”.
几个月前，我写了一篇关于“Z世代和可预测进步的终结”的文章，但它的标题确实应该是“为什么经济阶梯因政策选择而完全改变了每个人”。
One driver of our changing economy is demographics.
人口统计是我们不断变化的经济的驱动因素之一。
We talk about it in generational terms because that makes it easier, but it’s impacting everyone .
我们用代际术语来谈论它，因为这会让事情变得更容易，但它正在影响每个人。
The population is aging, and policy increasingly favors some of the elderly (don’t forget 43% of boomers have no retirement savings) over the young.
人口正在老龄化，政策越来越有利于一些老年人（不要忘记 43% 的婴儿潮一代没有退休储蓄）而不是年轻人。
Across the country , states are slashing property taxes, which is the source of 70% of local revenue.
在全国范围内，各州都在大幅削减财产税，财产税是地方收入的 70% 的来源。
Florida, which already has no income tax, wants to get rid of property taxes entirely.
佛罗里达州已经没有所得税，希望完全取消财产税。
Illinois wants to exempt homeowners who’ve lived in their houses 30+ years.
伊利诺伊州希望豁免在其房屋中居住 30 多年的房主。
It’s unclear where replacement revenue to keep these economies going for our future would come from - or whether voters even care.
目前尚不清楚维持这些经济体未来发展的替代收入从何而来，也不清楚选民是否关心。
A lot of young people are very worried.
很多年轻人都非常担心。
The WSJ put it neatly: The Economy That’s Great for Parents, Lousy for Their Grown-Up Kids , highlighting how a generation that came of age during zero rates and rising asset prices is now facing a ladder that’s missing several rungs.
《华尔街日报》简洁地表述道：“经济对父母来说很好，但对长大的孩子来说很糟糕”，强调了在零利率和不断上涨的资产价格中成长起来的一代人现在面临着一个缺失了几个梯级的阶梯。
Young people - and their parents - don’t believe that upward mobility will be there for them.
年轻人和他们的父母不相信他们会获得向上的流动性。
According to the New York Fed’s Labor Market for Recent College Graduates tracker, unemployment for new college graduates up 30% since the pandemic versus 18% for all workers - the highest level in a decade , outside of the pandemic unemployment spike.
根据纽约联邦储备银行近期大学毕业生劳动力市场追踪数据，自疫情爆发以来，应届大学毕业生的失业率上升了 30%，而所有工人的失业率为 18%，这是十年来除疫情期间失业率飙升之外的最高水平。
And that’s part of the reason that people are turning to the stock market - over half of Americans who make below $80k a year have taxable investment accounts, with half of those investors entering the market within the last five years.
这也是人们转向股市的部分原因——超过一半的年收入低于 8 万美元的美国人拥有应税投资账户，其中一半的投资者是在过去五年内进入股市的。
People are trying to create their own financial foundation.
人们正在努力建立自己的财务基础。
Markets feel more stable than institutions.
市场感觉比机构更稳定。
And that ties into the financialization of everything.
这与一切事物的金融化息息相关。
In industrial capitalism, firms existed to produce and expand.
在工业资本主义中，企业的存在是为了生产和扩张。
Carnegie and Ford (for all their flaws) understood the ecosystem: workers were also consumers, so paying them well was good business.
卡内基和福特（尽管存在种种缺陷）了解这个生态系统：工人也是消费者，因此向他们支付高薪是一笔好生意。
But now…
但现在……
we don’t seem to think of it that way.
我们似乎并不这么认为。
That’s a part of financialized capitalism.
这是金融化资本主义的一部分。
Now, companies grow by firing, not hiring.
现在，公司通过解雇而不是招聘来发展。
Now, it’s like, well what if we had a robot that’s actually operated remotely by a guy in Pacific Heights do everyone’s job .
现在，这就像，如果我们有一个由太平洋高地的人远程操作的机器人来完成每个人的工作会怎么样？
6 That would be cool, right?
6 那会很酷，对吗？
UPS got a huge thumbs-up from the market for cutting 34,000 jobs ( and outsourcing jobs to USPS?
UPS 裁员 34,000 人，得到了市场的高度认可（并将工作外包给 USPS？
), a focus on efficiency instead of expansion.
），注重效率而不是扩张。
Why build or invent when you can just optimize?
当你可以优化时，为什么还要构建或发明呢？
It’s also a part of a broader inversion of values.
这也是更广泛的价值观反转的一部分。
In America, we now treat the jobs that keep the world running like teachers, sanitation workers, nurses, delivery drivers as failures of ambition, while the real prestige lies in moving capital or manufacturing hype.
在美国，我们现在将教师、环卫工人、护士、送货司机等维持世界运转的工作视为野心的失败，而真正的声望在于转移资本或制造业炒作。
Efficiency has replaced expansion as the primary growth narrative, which creates a feedback loop - fewer workers, weaker training, and less innovation.
效率已经取代扩张成为主要的增长叙事，这形成了一个反馈循环——工人减少、培训减弱和创新减少。
It’s a form of the AI Becker problem, as detailed by Luis Garicano .
这是人工智能贝克尔问题的一种形式，路易斯·加里卡诺 (Luis Garicano) 对此进行了详细介绍。
Automation erases the “training ground” work that once created experts.
自动化消除了曾经培养专家的“训练场”工作。
When machines do the junior tasks, no one learns the senior ones.
当机器执行初级任务时，没有人会学习高级任务。
Apprenticeship collapses.
学徒制崩溃了。
CEOs, driven by short-term preservation, hype AI as salvation because it buys them another quarter.
受短期保护的驱使，首席执行官们将人工智能吹捧为拯救者，因为它可以为他们赢得另一个季度的时间。
Beyond AI-hype, Chipotle had some interesting data in their earnings call, noting that people 25 to 35-years old have started dining out less.
除了人工智能炒作之外，Chipotle 在财报电话会议中还提供了一些有趣的数据，指出 25 至 35 岁的人们已经开始减少外出就餐。
They cite “unemployment, increased student loan repayment, and slower real wage growth” as the primary headwinds.
他们将“失业、学生贷款偿还增加以及实际工资增长放缓”视为主要阻力。
The whole call was essentially like “yeah, it’s not our burritos, it’s the economy”.
整个电话基本上就像“是的，这不是我们的墨西哥卷饼，而是经济”。
Kraft Heinz stated in their earnings call that “we now have one of the worst consumer sentiments we have seen in decades” (which might reflect GLP1s more than anything).
卡夫亨氏在财报电话会议中表示，“我们现在的消费者情绪是几十年来最糟糕的之一”（这可能最能反映 GLP1）。
But it isn’t the burritos.
但这不是墨西哥卷饼。
We do have a K-shaped economy 7 - the top keeps rising as the bottom falls.
我们确实有一个K型经济7——顶部不断上升，底部不断下降。
That means that the really wealthy ( the top 10% driving 50% of spending , for example) are doing quite well.
这意味着真正富有的人（例如，占 50% 支出的前 10% 人）过得相当好。
Their credit-card spending and travel budgets have surged alongside stock and home-equity gains (they are celebrating the new 100% tax write-off by buying private jets ).
他们的信用卡支出和旅行预算随着股票和房屋净值的增长而激增（他们正在通过购买私人飞机来庆祝新的 100% 税收减免）。
For everyone else, the economy has become something to believe in rather than participate in, a system that promises meaning through motion.
对于其他人来说，经济已经成为一种相信而不是参与的东西，一个通过运动承诺意义的系统。
That’s the real mood of the economy right now - everything is a trade.
这就是当前经济的真实情绪——一切都是交易。
Money, work, meaning, even faith.
金钱、工作、意义，甚至信仰。
Bible sales are up roughly 40% since the pandemic, but c hurch attendance is down to 30% from 42% two decades ago and 38% ten years ago.
自大流行以来，圣经销量增长了约 40%，但教堂出席率却从二十年前的 42% 和十年前的 38% 下降到了 30%。
It’s aesthetic in a way - aesthetic spirituality, aesthetic politics, Baudrillard and Debord would have a blast.
从某种意义上说，它是美学的——审美灵性、审美政治，鲍德里亚和德波会很高兴。
When belief itself becomes transactional, risk stops feeling like a financial concept and starts feeling like a moral one.
当信仰本身变得具有交易性时，风险就不再是一种金融概念，而开始成为一种道德概念。
People don’t just gamble with money anymore; they gamble with time, attention, identity - anything that might yield security or a sense of control.
人们不再只是用钱来赌博；而是用金钱来赌博。他们拿时间、注意力、身份进行赌博——任何可能带来安全感或控制感的东西。
The markets are only the macro version of that instinct.
市场只是这种本能的宏观版本。
That’s why the economy feels both booming and brittle at once: we have extraordinary wealth concentration coupled with mass participation in markets.
这就是为什么经济既繁荣又脆弱：财富高度集中，市场参与度很高。
Wealthy households and large firms transfer risk through diversification, hedging, political insulation (like donating to a ballroom maybe).
富裕家庭和大公司通过多元化、对冲、政治隔离（比如向舞厅捐款）来转移风险。
Everyone else absorbs risk through gig work, debt, market exposure, and health costs.
其他人都通过零工、债务、市场风险和健康成本来吸收风险。
It is the logical outcome of labor precarity + 401(k)ification + income volatility.
这是劳动力不稳定+401(k)化+收入波动的逻辑结果。
Risk always rolls downhill, but lately it looks like belief too.
风险总是会走下坡路，但最近它看起来也像信念。
The fixes for some of this aren’t complicated (it’s ideas that many have been talking about for a long time).
其中一些问题的修复并不复杂（这是许多人长期以来一直在谈论的想法）。
Create portable benefit pools that follow workers between gigs.
创建便携式福利池，跟踪工作期间的工人。
Build a public infrastructure corps that provides an employment floor.
建立一个提供就业基础的公共基础设施队伍。
We have examples as to what works, like Singapore’s sovereign wealth model, Germany’s apprenticeship programs, and Denmark’s flexicurity system.
我们有一些行之有效的例子，比如新加坡的主权财富模式、德国的学徒计划和丹麦的灵活保障制度。
The goal is probably to not ban the casino but rather to build something slower beside it.
我们的目标可能不是禁止赌场，而是在赌场旁边建造一些速度较慢的东西。
Every speculative boom eventually exhausts its own attention span.
每一次投机热潮最终都会耗尽自己的注意力。
Markets will always trade.
市场永远都会交易。
The invisible hand will keep dealing.
看不见的手会继续做事。
The work is to make sure the table doesn’t collapse.
这项工作是确保桌子不会倒塌。
Surviving the AI Capex Boom | The Vulgar Image | The Goon Squad | The Fiscal Impact of Immigration | The Real Cost of Benchmarking | The AI Becker Problem | Moloch’s Bargain: Emergent Misalignment When LLMs Compete for Audiences | Can Large Language Models Develop Gambling Addiction?
在人工智能资本支出热潮中生存下来 |粗俗形象|暴徒小队|移民的财政影响|基准测试的实际成本|人工智能贝克尔问题 | Moloch 的讨价还价：法学硕士争夺受众时出现的不一致 |大型语言模型会导致赌博成瘾吗？
This is a reader-supported publication.
这是一本由读者支持的出版物。
To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a paid subscriber.
要接收新帖子并支持我的工作，请考虑成为付费订阅者。
A lot of people thought that I thought it was something new, which I sure don’t
很多人认为我认为这是新事物，但我确实不这么认为
They are still being sued for ‘defrauding investors’ about its commitment to a charitable mission.
他们仍在因其对慈善使命的承诺而被指控“欺骗投资者”。
I guess a $1 trillion IPO can muddy that.
我猜想 1 万亿美元的 IPO 会让这一切变得混乱。
Isaiah 58:7 and Matthew 25:35 and Proverbs 14:31 if we want to get technical here
以赛亚书 58:7 和马太福音 25:35 以及箴言 14:31 如果我们想在这里获得技术性的知识
I do believe that Air Traffic Control should be privatized at this point
我确实认为空中交通管制此时应该私有化
I actually think this company means well and is trying to create something that really can help people but Joanna Stern’s video on it…
事实上，我认为这家公司的初衷是好的，并且正在尝试创造一些真正可以帮助人们的东西，但是乔安娜·斯特恩的视频......
underscores how complicated it is
强调了它的复杂性
Peter Atwater has been talking about this concept for years and years - if you’re interested in more, definitely read him
彼得·阿特沃特（Peter Atwater）多年来一直在谈论这个概念 - 如果您对更多感兴趣，请务必阅读他的文章
The casino economy is wild.
赌场经济很疯狂。
Everything is a bet.
一切都是赌注。
Outcomes aren't even really registered or felt.
结果甚至没有被真正记录或感受到。
They are just data.
它们只是数据。
Is financialized capitalism still capitalism or is it just what we are calling this thing we keep contributing to without understanding what it is?
金融化的资本主义仍然是资本主义吗？或者这只是我们所说的我们在不了解它是什么的情况下不断做出贡献的东西？
There's something deeper I can't quite name, almost like a disconnection from the physical world.
有一些更深层次的东西我无法说出，几乎就像与物质世界的脱节一样。
People are taking medicine that makes them not want to eat (GLP-1s) or not feel (antidepressants etc.), living nearly entirely inside their phones and contacting a faceless void for insights into every aspect of their lives.
人们服用的药物使他们不想吃饭（GLP-1）或感觉不舒服（抗抑郁药等），几乎完全生活在手机里，并联系一个不露面的虚空来深入了解他们生活的各个方面。
Christianity without church seems to fit right in with this.
没有教会的基督教似乎正好符合这一点。
Part of church is that feeling of community and the obligation of community (time and treasure), a grounding in the physical world.
教会的一部分是社区的感觉和社区的义务（时间和财富），是物质世界的基础。
“…which is cool because I totally forgot there was a third branch of government.”
“……这很酷，因为我完全忘记了还有第三个政府部门。”