Thoughts on the Economy and Policy Rules at the Federal Open Market Committee

At “A 50 Year Retrospective on the Shadow Open Market Committee and Its Role in Monetary Policy,” a conference sponsored by the Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Stanford, California

在“影子公开市场委员会及其在货币政策中的作用 50 年回顾”上，由斯坦福大学胡佛研究所主办的会议，加利福尼亚州斯坦福

Thank you, Athanasios, and thank you for the opportunity to be part of this very worthy celebration.

谢谢你，阿萨纳西奥斯，感谢你给我机会参加这个非常有价值的庆祝活动。

1 In support of the theme of this conference, I do have some thoughts on the Shadow Open Market Committee's contributions to the policy debate, in particular its advocacy for policy rules.

1 为了支持本次会议的主题，我确实对影子公开市场委员会对政策辩论的贡献有一些想法，特别是其对政策规则的倡导。

But before I get to that, I am going to exercise the keynote speaker's freedom to talk about whatever I want.

但在此之前，我将行使主讲人的自由来谈论我想要谈论的任何内容。

To that end, I want to take a few minutes to offer my views on the economic outlook and its implications for monetary policy.

为此，我想花几分钟时间表达我对经济前景及其对货币政策影响的看法。

So let me start there, and afterward I will discuss the role that policy rules play in my decision making and in the deliberations of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

因此，让我从这里开始，然后我将讨论政策规则在我的决策和联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的审议中所发挥的作用。

In the three weeks or so since the most recent FOMC meeting, data we have received has been uneven, as it sometimes has been over the past year.

自最近一次联邦公开市场委员会会议以来的三周左右的时间里，我们收到的数据参差不齐，就像过去一年中有时出现的情况一样。

I continue to judge that the U.S. economy is on a solid footing, with employment near the FOMC's maximum employment objective and inflation in the vicinity of our target, even though the latest inflation data was disappointing.

我继续判断美国经济基础稳固，就业接近联邦公开市场委员会的最大就业目标，通胀也接近我们的目标，尽管最新的通胀数据令人失望。

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first half of 2024, and I expect it to grow a bit faster in the third quarter.

2024年上半年实际国内生产总值（GDP）年增长率为2.2%，我预计第三季度增长速度会更快一些。

The Blue Chip consensus of private sector forecasters predicts 2.3 percent, while the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, based on up-to-the moment data, is predicting real growth of 3.2 percent.

私营部门预测者的蓝筹共识预测为 2.3%，而亚特兰大联储基于最新数据的 GDPNow 模型预测实际增长为 3.2%。

Earlier, there were concerns that GDP in the first half of this year was overstating the strength of the economy, since gross domestic income (GDI) was estimated to have grown a mere 1.3 percent in the first half of this year, suggesting a big downward revision to GDP was coming.

此前，有人担心今年上半年的GDP夸大了经济实力，因为今年上半年国内总收入（GDI）估计仅增长1.3%，表明GDP即将大幅下调。

But revisions received after our most recent FOMC meeting showed the opposite—GDI growth was revised up substantially to 3.2 percent.

但我们最近一次 FOMC 会议后收到的修正结果却显示出相反的结果——GDI 增长率大幅上调至 3.2%。

This change in turn led to an upward revision in the personal saving rate of about 2 percentage points in the second quarter, leaving it at 5.2 percent in June.

这一变化反过来导致第二季度个人储蓄率上调约2个百分点，6月份为5.2%。

This revision suggests that household resources for future consumption are actually in good shape, although data and anecdotal evidence suggests lower-income groups are struggling.

这一修正表明，用于未来消费的家庭资源实际上状况良好，尽管数据和轶事证据表明低收入群体正在苦苦挣扎。

These revisions suggest that the economy is much stronger than previously thought, with little indication of a major slowdown in economic activity.

这些修正表明经济比之前想象的要强劲得多，几乎没有迹象表明经济活动会大幅放缓。

That outlook is supported by consumer spending that has been and continues to be strong.

这一前景得到了一直且持续强劲的消费者支出的支持。

Though the growth in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) has moderated since the second half of 2023, it has continued at an average pace of close to 2.5 percent so far this year.

尽管个人消费支出 (PCE) 的增长自 2023 年下半年以来有所放缓，但今年迄今仍以接近 2.5% 的平均速度持续增长。

Also, my business contacts believe that there is considerable pent-up demand for durable goods, home improvements, and other big-ticket items, demand that built up due to high interest rates for credit cards and home equity loans.

此外，我的业务联系人认为，对耐用品、房屋装修和其他大件物品存在大量被压抑的需求，这些需求是由于信用卡和房屋净值贷款的高利率而增加的。

Now that rates have started to come down and are expected to come down more, consumers will be eager to make those purchases.

现在，利率已经开始下降，并且预计下降幅度更大，消费者将渴望进行这些购买。

For business spending, purchasing managers for manufacturers describe ongoing weakness in that sector, but those for the large majority of businesses outside of manufacturing continue to report a solid expansion of activity.

对于企业支出，制造商的采购经理描述了该行业持续疲软的情况，但制造业以外的大多数企业的采购经理继续报告活动稳步扩张。

Now let's talk about the labor market.

现在我们来谈谈劳动力市场。

Only a couple months ago, it appeared that the labor market was cooling too quickly.

就在几个月前，劳动力市场似乎冷却得太快。

Low numbers for job creation and a jump in the unemployment rate from 4.1 percent in June to 4.3 percent in July raised risks that the labor market was deteriorating.

创造就业机会的数量较低，失业率从 6 月份的 4.1% 跃升至 7 月份的 4.3%，增加了劳动力市场恶化的风险。

To remind you of how bad the markets viewed the July data, some Fed watchers were calling for an emergency FOMC meeting to discuss a rate cut.

为了提醒您市场对 7 月份数据的看法有多糟糕，一些美联储观察人士呼吁召开联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 紧急会议来讨论降息问题。

While the unemployment rate ticked down in August, job growth was once again well below expectations.

尽管八月份失业率有所下降，但就业增长再次远低于预期。

Many were arguing that the labor market was on the verge of a serious deterioration and that the Fed was behind the curve even after a 50 basis point cut in the policy rate at the September FOMC meeting.

许多人认为，劳动力市场正处于严重恶化的边缘，即使在 9 月 FOMC 会议上降息 50 个基点后，美联储仍落后于曲线。

Then we got the September employment report.

然后我们得到了九月份的就业报告。

Job creation in September was unexpectedly strong at 254,000 and the unemployment rate fell back down to 4.1 percent, which is where it was in June.

9 月份创造的就业机会出乎意料地强劲，达到 254,000 个，失业率回落至 6 月份的 4.1%。

The report also showed big upward revisions to payroll gains for the previous two months.

该报告还显示前两个月的工资增长大幅向上修正。

Together, the message was loud and clear: While job creation has moderated and the unemployment rate has risen over the past year, the labor market remains quite healthy.

总之，这个信息是响亮而明确的：尽管过去一年就业创造放缓，失业率上升，但劳动力市场仍然相当健康。

Along with other new data on the labor market, the evidence is that labor supply and demand have come into balance.

与劳动力市场的其他新数据一起，证据表明劳动力供需已经达到平衡。

The number of job vacancies, a sign of strength in the labor market, has fallen gradually since the beginning of the year.

作为劳动力市场走强迹象的职位空缺数量自今年年初以来逐渐下降。

The ratio of vacancies to unemployed is at 1.2, about the level in 2019, which was a pretty strong labor market.

职位空缺与失业人数之比为1.2，约为2019年的水平，劳动力市场相当强劲。

To put this number into perspective, recent research has shown that this ratio has been above 1 only three times since 1960.

为了正确看待这个数字，最近的研究表明，自 1960 年以来，这一比率只有 3 次高于 1。

2 The quits rate, another sign of labor market strength, has fallen lower than it was in 2019, a decrease which partly reflects that the hiring rate has fallen as labor supply and demand have come into better balance.

2 劳动力市场走强的另一个迹象是，辞职率比 2019 年有所下降，这一下降在一定程度上反映了随着劳动力供需趋于平衡，招聘率有所下降。

In sum, based on payrolls, the unemployment rate and job revisions, there has been a very gradual moderation in labor demand relative to supply, but not a deterioration.

总而言之，根据就业数据、失业率和职位调整，劳动力需求相对于供给的变化非常缓慢，但并未恶化。

The stability of the labor market, as reflected in these two measures as well as the other metrics I mentioned, bolsters my confidence that we can achieve further progress toward the FOMC's inflation goal while supporting a healthy labor market that adds jobs and boosts wages and living standards for workers.

这两项指标以及我提到的其他指标所反映的劳动力市场的稳定性增强了我的信心，即我们能够在实现联邦公开市场委员会的通胀目标方面取得进一步进展，同时支持健康的劳动力市场，增加就业机会，提高工人的工资和生活水平。

I will be looking for more evidence to support this outlook in the weeks and months to come.

我将在未来几周和几个月内寻找更多证据来支持这一前景。

But, unfortunately, it won't be easy to interpret the October jobs report to be released just before the next FOMC meeting.

但不幸的是，解读即将在下一次联邦公开市场委员会会议之前发布的 10 月份就业报告并不容易。

This report will most likely show a significant but temporary loss of jobs from the two recent hurricanes and the strike at Boeing.

这份报告很可能会显示最近两次飓风和波音公司罢工造成的大量但暂时的就业岗位流失。

I expect these factors may reduce employment growth by more than 100,000 this month, and there may be a small effect on the unemployment rate, but I'm not sure it will be that visible.

我预计这些因素可能会导致本月就业增长减少10万以上，对失业率的影响可能很小，但我不确定影响会那么明显。

Since the jobs report will come during the usual blackout period for policymakers commenting on the economy, you won't have any of us trying to put this low reading into perspective, though I hope others will.

由于就业报告将在政策制定者对经济发表评论的通常封锁期内发布，因此我们中不会有人试图正确看待这一低读数，尽管我希望其他人会这样做。

Looking ahead, I expect payroll gains to moderate from their current pace but continue at a solid rate.

展望未来，我预计薪资增长将较目前放缓，但仍将保持稳定增长。

The unemployment rate may drift a bit higher but is likely to remain quite low in historical terms.

失业率可能会略有上升，但可能仍处于历史低位。

While I believe the labor market is on a solid footing, I will continue to watch the full range of data for signs of weakness.

虽然我相信劳动力市场基础稳固，但我将继续关注全方位数据，寻找疲软迹象。

Meanwhile, inflation, after showing considerable progress for several months toward the FOMC's 2 percent target, likely moved up in September.

与此同时，通胀率在几个月来朝着联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 2% 的目标取得了巨大进展后，9 月份可能会上升。

The consumer price index grew 0.2 percent over the past month, 2.1 percent over the past three months, 1.6 percent over six months and 2.4 percent in the past year.

居民消费价格指数过去一个月上涨0.2%，过去三个月上涨2.1%，六个月上涨1.6%，去年上涨2.4%。

Oil prices fell over most of the summer but then more recently have surged.

夏季大部分时间油价下跌，但最近又飙升。

Excluding energy and also food prices that likewise tend to be volatile, and just as it did in August, core CPI inflation printed at 0.3 percent in September and 3.3 percent over the past year.

不包括同样波动的能源和食品价格，与 8 月份一样，9 月份核心 CPI 通胀率为 0.3%，去年为 3.3%。

Private-sector forecasts are predicting that PCE inflation, the FOMC's preferred measure, will also move up in September.

私营部门预测 FOMC 首选指标 PCE 通胀也将在 9 月份上升。

Core PCE prices are expected to have risen around 0.25 percent last month.

上个月核心 PCE 价格预计上涨 0.25% 左右。

While not a welcome development, if the monthly core PCE inflation number comes in around this level, over the last 5 months it is still running very close to 2 percent on an annualized basis.

虽然这不是一个受欢迎的进展，但如果每月核心 PCE 通胀数据在这个水平附近，那么在过去 5 个月中，按年化计算，它仍然非常接近 2%。

We have made a lot of progress on inflation over the course of the last year and half, but that progress has clearly been uneven—at times it feels like being on a rollercoaster.

在过去一年半的时间里，我们在通胀方面取得了很大进展，但进展显然并不平衡——有时感觉就像坐过山车一样。

Whether or not this month's inflation reading is just noise or if it signals ongoing increases, is yet to be seen.

本月的通胀数据是否只是噪音，或者是否预示着通胀正在持续上涨，还有待观察。

I will be watching the data carefully to see how persistent this recent uptick is.

我将仔细观察数据，看看最近的上升趋势有多持久。

The FOMC's inflation goal is an average of 2 percent over the longer run and there are some good reasons to think that price increases will be modest going forward.

FOMC 的长期通胀目标是平均 2%，并且有充分的理由认为未来物价涨幅将适度。

I am hearing reports from firms that their pricing power seems to have waned as consumers have become more sensitive to price changes.

我听到一些公司的报告称，随着消费者对价格变化变得更加敏感，他们的定价能力似乎已经减弱。

There has also been a steady slowing in the growth of labor compensation.

劳动报酬的增长也稳步放缓。

It is true that average hourly earnings growth in September ticked up to 4 percent over the past year.

确实，去年 9 月份的平均时薪增长率比去年上升了 4%。

And though it might seem like wage increases of 4 percent a year would put upward pressure on inflation that is near 2 percent, that might not be true if one considers productivity, which has grown at an average annual rate of 2.9 percent for the past five quarters.

尽管看起来每年 4% 的工资增长会给接近 2% 的通胀带来上行压力，但如果考虑到生产力，情况可能并非如此，过去五个季度生产力的年均增长率为 2.9%。

Some of this strength was making up for productivity that shrank due to the pandemic, but the longer it continues—up 2.5 percent for the second quarter—the better productivity supports wage growth of 4 percent, or even higher, without driving up inflation.

这种优势在一定程度上弥补了因大流行而下降的生产率，但这种情况持续的时间越长（第二季度增长了 2.5%），生产率就越高，可以支持工资增长 4% 甚至更高，而不会推高通胀。

All that said, I will be watching all the data related to inflation closely.

话虽如此，我将密切关注所有与通胀相关的数据。

With the labor market in rough balance, employment near its maximum level, and inflation generally running close to our target over the past several months, I want to do what I can as a policymaker to keep the economy on this path.

由于劳动力市场大致平衡，就业接近最高水平，过去几个月通胀普遍接近我们的目标，我希望作为政策制定者尽我所能，让经济保持在这条道路上。

For me, the central question is how much and how fast to reduce the target for the federal funds rate, which I believe is currently set at a restrictive level.

对我来说，核心问题是降低联邦基金利率目标的幅度和速度，我认为联邦基金利率目前设定在限制性水平。

To help answer questions like this, I often look at various monetary policy rules to assess the appropriate setting of policy.

为了帮助回答此类问题，我经常查看各种货币政策规则来评估适当的政策设置。

Policy rules have long been of serious interest to the Shadow Open Market Committee.

影子公开市场委员会长期以来一直对政策规则非常感兴趣。

So before I turn to my views on the future path of policy, I thought I would talk about monetary policy rules versus discretion and begin with some background about the use of rules at the FOMC.

因此，在我转向对未来政策路径的看法之前，我想我应该谈谈货币政策规则与自由裁量权，并首先介绍一些有关 FOMC 使用规则的背景。

For a brief overview of the history of the advent of rules at the Board, I have been directed to the second chapter of The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy written by George Kahn, and I have also consulted the memories of longtime members of the Board staff.

为了简要概述董事会规则出现的历史，我查阅了乔治·卡恩（George Kahn）撰写的《泰勒规则和货币政策转型》第二章，并且还查阅了董事会长期成员的回忆。

3 Rules came along in the 1990s as the Fed was moving away from monetary targeting, focusing more on interest-rate policy, and taking its first major steps toward increased transparency.

3 规则出现于 20 世纪 90 年代，当时美联储正在摆脱货币目标，更多地关注利率政策，并采取了提高透明度的第一个重大步骤。

There was immediate interest in Taylor-type rules among Fed staff, and even some contributions of research.

美联储工作人员立即对泰勒式规则产生了兴趣，甚至做出了一些研究贡献。

4 There was a presentation to the FOMC on rules in 1995, and that was the same year that John Taylor's Bay Area colleague, Janet Yellen, was apparently the first policymaker to mention the Taylor rule at an FOMC meeting.

4 1995 年，联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 就规则做了一次介绍，同年，约翰·泰勒 (John Taylor) 的湾区同事珍妮特·耶伦 (Janet Yellen) 显然是第一个在联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议上提及泰勒规则的政策制定者。

While FOMC decisions mimicked a Taylor rule much of the time under Chairman Alan Greenspan, he was famously an advocate of "constructive ambiguity" in communication, and he and other central bankers since have resisted the suggestion that decisions could be handed over to strict rules.

虽然联邦公开市场委员会的决定在很大程度上模仿了主席艾伦·格林斯潘领导下的泰勒规则，但他以倡导沟通中“建设性模糊”而闻名，自此他和其他央行行长一直拒绝接受将决策交给严格规则的建议。

Today, of course, a number of rules-based analyses are included in the material submitted to policymakers ahead of every FOMC meeting, and we publish the policy prescriptions of different rules as part of the Board's semi-annual Monetary Policy Report .

当然，今天，在每次 FOMC 会议之前提交给政策制定者的材料中都包含了一些基于规则的分析，并且我们将不同规则的政策规定作为委员会半年度货币政策报告的一部分发布。

Rules have become part of the furniture in modern policymaking.

规则已成为现代政策制定的一部分。

As everyone here knows, but for the benefit of other listeners, Taylor rules relate the level of the policy interest rate to a limited number of other economic variables, most often including the deviation of inflation from a target value and a measure of resource use in the economy relative to some long-run trend.

这里的每个人都知道，但为了其他听众的利益，泰勒规则将政策利率水平与有限数量的其他经济变量联系起来，最常见的是通货膨胀与目标值的偏差以及经济中相对于某些长期趋势的资源使用的衡量标准。

5 There are numerous forms of the Taylor rule, but they generally fall into two categories.

5 泰勒规则有多种形式，但通常分为两类。

The first of these, an inertial rule, has the property that the policy rate changes only slowly over time.

第一个规则是惯性规则，其特点是政策利率随时间变化缓慢。

I tend to think of it as an approach that captures the reaction function of a policymaker in a stable economy where the forces that would tend to change the economy and policy build over time.

我倾向于将其视为一种捕捉政策制定者在稳定经济中的反应函数的方法，其中倾向于改变经济和政策的力量随着时间的推移而形成。

When change does occur, a gradual response may give policymakers time to assess the true state of the economy and the possible effects of their decision.

当变化确实发生时，渐进的反应可能会让政策制定者有时间评估经济的真实状况及其决策可能产生的影响。

One example I can use is the steadfastness of policymakers in the latter part of 2023, when inflation fell more rapidly than was widely expected, and again in early 2024, when it briefly escalated.

我可以举的一个例子是，政策制定者在 2023 年下半年的坚定态度，当时通胀下降的速度比普遍预期的要快，而 2024 年初又出现了短暂升级。

The FOMC did not change course either time, an approach validated by inertial rules.

联邦公开市场委员会两次都没有改变方针，这一做法得到了惯性规则的验证。

A non-inertial rule, on the other hand, allows and in fact calls for relatively quick adjustments to policy.

另一方面，非惯性规则允许并且实际上要求相对快速地调整政策。

The guidance from these rules is more useful when there is a turning point in the economy, and policymakers need to stay ahead of events.

当经济出现转折点且政策制定者需要保持领先地位时，这些规则的指导更为有用。

One saw these non-inertial rules prescribe a sharper rise in the policy rate above the effective lower bound starting in 2021 as inflation began climbing above the FOMC's 2 percent target.

人们认为，随着通胀开始攀升至 FOMC 2% 的目标之上，这些非惯性规则规定，从 2021 年开始，政策利率将大幅上升至有效下限之上。

Non-inertial rules are also more useful in the face of major shocks to the economy such as the 2008 financial crisis and the start of the pandemic.

非惯性规则在面对2008年金融危机和新冠疫情等经济重大冲击时也更有用。

The great promise of rules is that they provide a simple and reliable guide to policy, but what should one do when different rules recommend different policy actions given the same economic conditions?

规则的伟大前景在于它们为政策提供了简单而可靠的指导，但在相同的经济条件下，当不同的规则推荐不同的政策行动时，人们该怎么办？

Right now, inertial rules tell us to move slowly in reducing policy rates toward a neutral stance that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy.

目前，惯性规则告诉我们要缓慢地降低政策利率，采取既不限制也不刺激经济的中性立场。

On the other hand, non-inertial rules tell us to cut the policy rate more aggressively, subject to the caveat that one is certain of the values of all the 'star' variables: U*, Y* and r*.

另一方面，非惯性规则告诉我们要更积极地降低政策利率，但需要注意的是，我们必须确定所有“明星”变量的值：U*、Y* 和 r*。

I think the answer is that while rules are valuable in helping analyze policy options, they have limitations.

我认为答案是，虽然规则对于帮助分析政策选择很有价值，但它们也有局限性。

Among these are the limits of the data considered, which is typically narrower than the range of data that policymakers use to make decisions, and also the fact that simple policy rules do not take into account risk management, which is often a critical consideration in policy decisions.

其中包括所考虑数据的局限性，这些数据通常比政策制定者用于决策的数据范围要窄，而且简单的政策规则没有考虑风险管理，而风险管理通常是政策决策中的关键考虑因素。

So, while policy rules serve as a good check on discretionary policy, there are times when discretion is needed.

因此，虽然政策规则可以很好地检查自由裁量政策，但有时也需要自由裁量权。

As a result, I prefer to think of them as "policy rules of thumb".

因此，我更愿意将它们视为“政策经验法则”。

Turning to my view for the path for policy, let me discuss three scenarios that I have had in mind to manage the risks of upcoming decisions in the medium term.

谈到我对政策路径的看法，让我讨论一下我为管理中期即将做出的决策的风险而想到的三种情景。

The first scenario is one where the overall strong economic developments that I have described today continue, with inflation nearing the FOMC's target and the unemployment rate moving up only slightly.

第一种情况是我今天描述的总体强劲经济发展继续，通胀接近联邦公开市场委员会的目标，失业率仅小幅上升。

This scenario implies to me that we can proceed with moving policy toward a neutral stance at a deliberate pace.

对我来说，这种情况意味着我们可以审慎地将政策转向中立立场。

This path would be based on the judgment that the risks to both sides of our dual mandate are balanced.

这条道路将基于这样的判断：我们的双重使命双方的风险是平衡的。

In this circumstance, our job is to keep inflation near 2 percent and not slow the economy unnecessarily.

在这种情况下，我们的工作是将通货膨胀率保持在 2% 左右，而不是不必要地减缓经济增长。

Another scenario, less likely in light of recent data, is that inflation falls materially below 2 percent for some time, and/or the labor market significantly deteriorates.

另一种情况（从最近的数据来看不太可能发生）是，通货膨胀率在一段时间内大幅降至 2% 以下，和/或劳动力市场显着恶化。

The message here is that demand is falling, the FOMC may suddenly be behind the curve, and that message would argue for moving to neutral more quickly by front-loading cuts to the policy rate.

这里传达的信息是，需求正在下降，联邦公开市场委员会可能突然落后于曲线，并且该信息将主张通过提前削减政策利率来更快地转向中性。

The third scenario applies if inflation unexpectedly escalates either because of stronger-than-expected consumer demand or wage pressure, or because of some shock to supply that pushes up inflation.

如果由于消费者需求或工资压力强于预期，或者由于供应受到冲击而推高通胀，通胀意外升级，则适用第三种情况。

As we learned in the recovery from the pandemic recession, when demand was stronger and supply weaker than initially expected, such surprises do occur.

正如我们在从大流行性衰退中复苏的过程中了解到的那样，当需求强劲而供应弱于最初预期时，这种意外确实会发生。

In this circumstance, as long as the labor market isn't deteriorating, we can pause rate cuts until progress resumes and uncertainty diminishes.

在这种情况下，只要劳动力市场没有恶化，我们就可以暂停降息，直到进展恢复且不确定性减少。

Most recently, we have seen upward revisions to GDI, an increase in job vacancies, high GDP growth forecasts, a strong jobs report and a hotter than expected CPI report.

最近，我们看到GDI上调、职位空缺增加、GDP增长预测较高、就业报告强劲以及CPI报告热于预期。

This data is signaling that the economy may not be slowing as much as desired.

该数据表明经济放缓的程度可能不会达到预期。

While we do not want to overreact to this data or look through it, I view the totality of the data as saying monetary policy should proceed with more caution on the pace of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting.

虽然我们不想对这些数据反应过度或仔细研究它，但我认为总体数据表明，货币政策在降息步伐上应比 9 月会议上所需要的更加谨慎。

I will be watching to see whether data, due out before our next meeting, on inflation, the labor market and economic activity confirms or undercuts my inclination to be more cautious about loosening monetary policy.

我将关注下次会议之前公布的有关通胀、劳动力市场和经济活动的数据是否证实或削弱了我对放松货币政策更加谨慎的倾向。

Whatever happens in the near term, my baseline still calls for reducing the policy rate gradually over the next year.

无论短期内发生什么，我的基线仍然要求在明年逐步降低政策利率。

The median rate for FOMC participants at the end of 2025 is 3.4 percent, so most of my colleagues likewise expect to reduce policy over the next year.

2025 年底 FOMC 参与者的利率中位数为 3.4%，因此我的大多数同事同样预计明年会减少政策。

There is less certainty about the final destination.

最终目的地不太确定。

The median estimated longer-run level of the federal funds rate in the Committee's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is 2.9 percent, but with quite a wide dispersion, ranging from 2.4 percent to 3.8 percent.

委员会经济预测摘要（SEP）中估计的联邦基金利率长期水平中位数为 2.9%，但离散程度相当大，范围为 2.4% 至 3.8%。

While much attention is given to the size of cuts over the next meeting or two, I think the larger message of the SEP is that there is a considerable extent of policy restrictiveness to remove, and if the economy continues in its current sweet spot, this will happen gradually.

虽然人们非常关注下一两次会议的削减规模，但我认为 SEP 传达的更大信息是，有相当大程度的政策限制需要取消，如果经济继续处于当前的最佳状态，这将逐渐发生。

Thank you again, for the opportunity to be part of today's conference, and for allowing me to share some thoughts, relevant to monetary policy rules and my day job back in Washington.

再次感谢你们给我机会参加今天的会议，并让我分享一些与货币政策规则和我在华盛顿的日常工作相关的想法。

The Shadow Committee has elevated the public debate about monetary policy.

影子委员会引发了有关货币政策的公开辩论。

May you continue to play that role for many years to come.

愿你在未来的许多年里继续扮演这个角色。

1.

1.

The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.

这里表达的观点是我自己的观点，不一定是我在联邦公开市场委员会的同事的观点。

Return to text

返回正文

2.

2.

See Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti B.

参见 Pierpaolo Benigno 和 Gauti B.

Eggertsson (2024), " Revisiting the Phillips and Beveridge Curves: Insights from the 2020s Inflation Surge (PDF) ," paper presented at "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy," a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, held in Jackson Hole, Wyo., August 23.

Eggertsson (2024)，“重新审视菲利普斯曲线和贝弗里奇曲线：2020 年代通胀飙升的见解 (PDF)”，论文在“重新评估货币政策的有效性和传导”研讨会上发表，该研讨会由堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主办，于 8 月 23 日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行。

Return to text

返回正文

3.

3.

See Evan F.

参见埃文·F.

Koenig, Robert Leeson, and George A.

柯尼格、罗伯特·利森和乔治·A.

Kahn, eds.

卡恩，编辑。

(2012), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy (Stanford, Calif.: Hoover Institution Press).

(2012)，泰勒规则和货币政策转型（加利福尼亚州斯坦福：胡佛研究所出版社）。

I was assisted in this brief history by Board economists James Clouse and Edward Nelson.

我在董事会经济学家詹姆斯·克劳斯和爱德华·纳尔逊的帮助下完成了这篇简史。

Return to text

返回正文

4.

4.

See Dale W.

参见戴尔 W.

Henderson and Warwick J.

亨德森和沃里克 J.

McKibbin (1993), "A Comparison of Some Basic Monetary Policy Regimes for Open Economies: Implications of Different Degrees of Instrument Adjustment and Wage Persistence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, vol. 39 (December), pp.

McKibbin (1993)，“开放经济体一些基本货币政策制度的比较：不同程度的工具调整和工资持续性的影响”，卡内基-罗切斯特公共政策会议系列，卷。 39（12 月），第 39 页。

221–317).

221-317）。

This paper was also published in the International Finance Discussion Papers series and is available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1993/458/ifdp458.pdf .

本文还发表在国际金融讨论论文系列中，可在理事会网站 https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/1993/458/ifdp458.pdf 上获取。

Return to text

返回正文

5.

5.

For a variety of Taylor rules and their implication for policy, see the Monetary Policy Report, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/mpr_default.htm .

有关各种泰勒规则及其对政策的影响，请参阅货币政策报告，该报告可在委员会网站 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/mpr_default.htm 上获取。

Return to text

返回正文

i.

岛

Note: On October 14, 2024, a sentence on page 10 was corrected to say "restrictiveness": "I think the larger message of the SEP is that there is a considerable extent of policy restrictiveness to remove, and if the economy continues in its current sweet spot, this will happen gradually."

注：2024年10月14日，第10页的一句话被更正为“限制性”：“我认为SEP更大的信息是，有相当大程度的政策限制需要取消，如果经济继续处于当前的最佳状态，这将逐渐发生。”