The Economic Outlook and U.S. Productivity
Good morning.
早上好。
It is a pleasure to be back in Michigan, although I wish I had been here to participate in the Turkey Trot last week, which is an annual tradition for my family and me.
很高兴回到密歇根，尽管我希望上周能来这里参加火鸡快跑，这对我和我的家人来说是一年一度的传统。
It is especially a treat to be back in Detroit, with its rich history of music, art, architecture, and industrial innovation—which I will address today.
回到底特律真是一种享受，底特律拥有丰富的音乐、艺术、建筑和工业创新历史——我今天将谈到这一点。
I am also delighted to see some familiar faces.
我也很高兴看到一些熟悉的面孔。
Today, I would like to discuss the economic outlook and focus on one particularly important aspect of the economy: productivity.
今天，我想讨论经济前景，重点讨论经济中一个特别重要的方面：生产率。
I have spent much of my career researching the ways in which American ingenuity and invention can be wellsprings of economic growth.
我职业生涯的大部分时间都在研究美国的聪明才智和发明如何成为经济增长的源泉。
I am here, therefore, to address the impressive innovation happening in the auto industry and what it tells us about future prospects for productivity in the U.S. manufacturing sector and in the economy more generally.
因此，我来这里是为了谈谈汽车行业正在发生的令人印象深刻的创新，以及它告诉我们的美国制造业和更广泛的经济的未来生产力前景。
I can think of no better place to do that than in the Motor City.
我想不出比汽车城更好的地方了。
Outlook To set the stage, I will first turn to the U.S. economy as a whole, where inflation remains much too high.
展望为了奠定基础，我将首先谈谈美国经济整体，通胀仍然过高。
As a result, the Federal Reserve must continue to focus on bringing inflation back down to our 2 percent target.
因此，美联储必须继续致力于将通胀率降至 2% 的目标。
We have begun to see some improvement in the inflation data.
我们已经开始看到通胀数据有所改善。
The October report on consumer prices was encouraging, particularly the slowing in core inflation—the measure that excludes more volatile categories, such as food and energy.
十月份的消费者价格报告令人鼓舞，特别是核心通胀的放缓——该指标排除了食品和能源等波动性较大的类别。
Producer price inflation also moderated in October, suggesting that inflation pressures on businesses may be easing.
十月份生产者价格通胀也有所放缓，表明企业的通胀压力可能正在缓解。
Nonetheless, I would be cautious about reading too much into one month of relatively favorable data.
尽管如此，我对对一个月相对有利的数据进行过多解读持谨慎态度。
Core goods inflation has finally begun to slow significantly, helped by some long-anticipated improvement in global supply chains.
在人们期待已久的全球供应链改善的帮助下，核心商品通胀终于开始显着放缓。
Declines in wholesale prices for used cars and in prices for key manufacturing components, like plastic resin and steel, also suggest continued moderation in goods price inflation.
二手车批发价格以及塑料树脂和钢材等关键制造零部件价格的下降也表明商品价格通胀持续放缓。
Services, however, make up about two-thirds of consumer spending, and inflation in that sector has not yet slowed.
然而，服务业约占消费者支出的三分之二，而且该行业的通胀尚未放缓。
Notably, inflation in housing costs shot up this year and will likely contribute substantially to overall inflation for some time.
值得注意的是，今年住房成本通胀飙升，并可能在一段时间内对整体通胀产生重大影响。
Nonetheless, some good news is emerging on this front.
尽管如此，这方面正在出现一些好消息。
Rent increases on new leases have slowed in recent months.
近几个月来，新租约的租金涨幅有所放缓。
And a substantial number of multifamily units currently under construction will be delivered next year, helping to ease the housing shortage.
目前在建的大量多户住宅将于明年交付，有助于缓解住房短缺问题。
Still, these positive developments are likely to feed into measured consumer prices only gradually.
尽管如此，这些积极的发展可能只会逐渐影响到可衡量的消费者价格。
Services prices more broadly have accelerated sharply this year and may prove to be a persistent factor keeping inflation elevated.
今年更广泛的服务价格大幅上涨，并可能成为导致通胀高企的持续因素。
Demand for services continues to recover from its pandemic lows, with the release of pent-up demand for travel evident to anyone who has spent much time in DTW and other airports recently.
对服务的需求继续从大流行病的低点中恢复，对于最近在DTW和其他机场呆过很长时间的人来说，被压抑的旅行需求的释放是显而易见的。
Labor compensation is a key factor for non-housing services prices, and growth in labor costs remains well above pre-pandemic rates.
劳动力报酬是非住房服务价格的关键因素，劳动力成本增长仍远高于疫情前的水平。
There has been some moderation recently, with slowing in average hourly earnings and in the employment cost index.
最近出现了一些放缓，平均时薪和就业成本指数放缓。
But wage growth remains above what would be consistent with 2 percent inflation, given prevailing trends in productivity growth.
但考虑到生产率增长的普遍趋势，工资增长仍高于 2% 的通胀水平。
Productivity In Michigan and the other parts of the country that boast manufacturing hubs, we all understand the importance of productivity.
生产力 在密歇根州和美国其他拥有制造中心的地区，我们都了解生产力的重要性。
Productivity growth is a key factor in the health of the overall economy and in the daily lives of all Americans.
生产力增长是整体经济健康和所有美国人日常生活的关键因素。
Because ultimately, it drives rising standards of living for all of us.
因为最终，它会提高我们所有人的生活水平。
Growth in labor productivity, or output per hour worked, has been lackluster in the U.S. economy and around the world in recent years.
近年来，美国和世界各地的劳动生产率或每小时工作产出的增长一直乏善可陈。
1 Some observers fret that we are running out of innovative ideas to squeeze more outputs from the same inputs.
1 一些观察家担心我们已经没有创新的想法可以从相同的投入中获得更多的产出。
2 Others look around and see amazing technology used in cutting-edge factories, warehouses, and stores and wonder if the innovation is happening but not spreading as fast as it once did.
2 其他人环顾四周，看到尖端工厂、仓库和商店中使用的令人惊叹的技术，想知道创新是否正在发生，但传播速度没有以前那么快。
Whatever the cause, in recent years output per hour has only increased at half the rate it did as recently as the mid-2000s.
不管是什么原因，近年来每小时产量的增长速度仅为 2000 年代中期的一半。
This is cause for concern.
这值得关注。
Over the first three quarters of 2022, productivity in the business sector has recorded a disappointing decline of 3-3/4 percent at an annual rate.
2022 年前三季度，商业部门的生产率年率下降了 3-3/4%，令人失望。
Payroll employment in the private sector has continued to increase, yet gross domestic product (GDP) has done little more than move sideways, resulting in an outright decline in labor productivity.
私营部门的工资就业持续增加，但国内生产总值（GDP）却只是横盘整理，导致劳动生产率彻底下降。
However, the recent decline in productivity is partly an artifact of the pandemic.
然而，近期生产力下降在一定程度上是疫情造成的。
In 2020 and 2021, productivity soared when firms found ways to keep producing while many employees were away from the workplace ( figure 1 ).
2020 年和 2021 年，当企业找到在许多员工离开工作场所的情况下继续生产的方法时，生产率就会飙升（图 1）。
Meanwhile, the economy shifted away from services—a lower-productivity sector—and toward goods—a higher-productivity sector—as households substituted new televisions for dining out and family vacations.
与此同时，随着家庭用新电视取代外出就餐和家庭度假，经济从生产力较低的服务业转向生产力较高的商品。
As a result, average productivity moved up.
结果，平均生产率提高了。
These temporary changes have largely reversed, leading to the recent declines in productivity, pushing it back toward its pre-pandemic trend.
这些暂时的变化已在很大程度上发生逆转，导致近期生产率下降，使其回到大流行前的趋势。
The tight labor market has played a role, as well.
劳动力市场紧张也起到了一定作用。
With 1.8 job openings for every job seeker, firms may be using the GDP slowdown as an opportunity to let their hiring catch up to the earlier surge in labor demand.
由于每位求职者有 1.8 个职位空缺，企业可能会利用 GDP 放缓的机会，让其招聘赶上早些时候激增的劳动力需求。
Some firms may even be operating with a larger workforce than necessary in order to hold on to talent they may not have retained in normal times.
一些公司甚至可能拥有比必要数量更多的员工，以留住他们在正常情况下可能无法留住的人才。
In any event, we should avoid making too much of quarterly swings in choppy data but focus instead on the trend over several years.
无论如何，我们应该避免过多地关注波动性数据的季度波动，而应关注几年的趋势。
Taking this longer view, what pace of productivity growth should we expect going forward?
从更长远的角度来看，我们预计未来生产率增长的速度是怎样的？
This question is critical to policymakers, as inflation is tied to productivity.
这个问题对于政策制定者来说至关重要，因为通货膨胀与生产率息息相关。
When firms see rising output per hour, they have room to keep prices low.
当公司看到每小时产量增加时，他们就有空间保持低价。
For consumer goods, this can help lower inflation.
对于消费品来说，这有助于降低通胀。
For material inputs, this lowers the cost of downstream production.
对于材料投入来说，这降低了下游生产的成本。
And for equipment, lower prices mean more capital investment, a knock-on effect that boosts productivity further.
对于设备而言，较低的价格意味着更多的资本投资，从而产生进一步提高生产率的连锁效应。
If there is a productivity revival, it will likely involve manufacturing, if history is our guide.
如果以史为鉴的话，如果生产力复苏，很可能会涉及制造业。
When it comes to productivity, the sector has a record of punching above its weight.
在生产力方面，该行业有着超常发挥的记录。
Since the mid-20th century, manufacturing productivity has risen a full percentage point faster than productivity for the broader economy ( figure 2 ).
自 20 世纪中叶以来，制造业生产率的增长速度比整体经济生产率快了整整一个百分点（图 2）。
The sector seems to find ways to do more with less.
该行业似乎找到了事半功倍的方法。
For example, manufacturing lost a staggering 5 million workers from 2000 to 2019, nearly 40 percent of its workforce.
例如，从 2000 年到 2019 年，制造业流失了 500 万名工人，接近其劳动力的 40%。
As seen in Michigan, this meant difficult transitions for industrial workers and their families as the economy shifted toward services and substituted imports for domestic production.
正如密歇根州所见，随着经济转向服务业并用进口替代国内生产，这意味着产业工人及其家庭将面临艰难的转型。
Yet, at the same time, output as measured by the Federal Reserve's industrial production index continued to climb.
然而与此同时，以美联储工业生产指数衡量的产出继续攀升。
Since the mid-2010s, though, this relationship has reversed, and manufacturing productivity has been noticeably lower than that of the overall economy.
但自 2010 年代中期以来，这种关系发生了逆转，制造业生产率明显低于整体经济生产率。
What explains the anemic growth in recent years?
如何解释近年来的增长乏力？
For one thing, IT equipment manufacturing has moved offshore, taking the productivity gains from progressively smaller and faster computer chips with it.
一方面，IT 设备制造已经转移到海外，并从越来越小、越来越快的计算机芯片中获得生产力的提高。
3 More generally, offshore locations have focused on production of high-volume goods.
3 更一般而言，离岸地点专注于大批量货物的生产。
Many of the remaining U.S. plants produce more specialized products, which tend to require more specialized labor and have lower productivity growth.
许多剩余的美国工厂生产更专业的产品，这些产品往往需要更专业的劳动力，并且生产率增长较低。
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The motor vehicle industry has mostly defied this trend of offshoring final production.
汽车行业在很大程度上抵制了这种最终生产离岸外包的趋势。
The U.S. motor vehicle industry still produces more than 10 million vehicles a year and employs 1 million people at assembly plants, labs, and suppliers.
美国机动车辆行业每年生产超过 1000 万辆汽车，装配厂、实验室和供应商雇用了 100 万人。
Furthermore, it is an extremely innovative industry, and fierce competition forces automakers to roll out innovations quickly.
此外，这是一个极具创新性的行业，激烈的竞争迫使汽车制造商快速推出创新。
Dozens of motor vehicle research and development labs reside in Michigan alone, churning out ideas for vehicle safety, fuel efficiency, comfort, and style.
仅密歇根州就有数十个机动车辆研发实验室，为车辆安全、燃油效率、舒适性和风格提出创意。
And with each passing year, cars and trucks look more like computers on wheels.
随着时间的推移，汽车和卡车看起来越来越像带轮子的电脑。
Looking around Michigan today, I see all kinds of changes.
今天环顾密歇根，我看到了各种各样的变化。
Some changes are to the production process, like the newest generation of robots.
生产过程发生了一些变化，例如最新一代的机器人。
These communicate at lightning speed, using the same high-speed "5G" technology as the latest phones; utilize artificial intelligence to adapt to their environment; and operate safely right next to workers on the assembly line.
它们以闪电般的速度进行通信，使用与最新手机相同的高速“5G”技术；利用人工智能来适应环境；并在装配线上的工人旁边安全操作。
Some changes are to design, like collision avoidance systems, sophisticated navigation apps, and the dozens of electric vehicles now on the road or coming to market soon.
一些变化是设计方面的，比如防撞系统、复杂的导航应用程序，以及目前在路上或即将上市的数十种电动汽车。
Some observers look at these changes with trepidation.
一些观察家对这些变化感到不安。
Robot orders surged after the onset of the pandemic and have continued apace, a partial solution to the critical shortage of labor in manufacturing.
疫情爆发后，机器人订单激增，并持续快速增长，部分解决了制造业劳动力严重短缺的问题。
5 What does all this mean for production line workers?
5 这对生产线工人意味着什么？
Motor vehicle manufacturers have been the most intensive users of robots for decades.
几十年来，机动车辆制造商一直是机器人最密集的用户。
The first assembly line robot was rolled out in 1961 by General Motors in Trenton, New Jersey.
第一个装配线机器人于 1961 年由通用汽车公司在新泽西州特伦顿推出。
Yet, the motor vehicle industry still employs more than 1 million workers, and its share of manufacturing employment has been going up since 2010.
然而，汽车行业仍然雇佣了超过100万工人，并且自2010年以来其在制造业就业中所占的比例一直在上升。
How did that happen?
这是怎么发生的？
Research has shown that workers are not just suited for a single job—they have a bundle of broadly applicable skills.
研究表明，员工不仅仅适合单一工作，他们还拥有一系列广泛适用的技能。
When robots take over one task, workers are shifted to another task and, in turn, new tasks appear.
当机器人接管一项任务时，工人就会被转移到另一项任务，进而出现新的任务。
6 The set of tasks to perform is not fixed, a belief economists call the "lump of labor fallacy." Rather, we need production workers to work with the new equipment and to focus on the problem-solving that robots do not do well.
6 要执行的任务集并不是固定的，经济学家将这种信念称为“劳动力谬误”。相反，我们需要生产工人使用新设备，并专注于解决机器人不擅长的问题。
That means that the next generation of plant workers will use touch screens a lot more and rivet guns a lot less.
这意味着下一代工厂工人将更多地使用触摸屏，而更少地使用铆钉枪。
And the systems they install as they assemble the vehicles are more laden with electronics with each passing year.
他们在组装车辆时安装的系统中的电子设备逐年增多。
Many are anticipating the arrival of the self-driving car, but in some respects, it is already here.
许多人都在期待自动驾驶汽车的到来，但在某些方面，它已经到来了。
Vehicles can parallel park themselves with the touch of a button, stop you from drifting out of your lane, and follow the car ahead of you, keeping a safe distance.
只需按一下按钮，车辆就可以自行平行停车，防止您偏离车道，并跟随前方的车辆，保持安全距离。
While the U.S. is not making as many semiconductor chips anymore, we are using a lot of them.
虽然美国不再生产那么多半导体芯片，但我们正在使用大量半导体芯片。
If that was not apparent already, we learned that lesson the hard way during the pandemic.
如果说这一点还不是很明显的话，那么我们在大流行期间就已经吸取了惨痛的教训。
I understand that, even now, thousands of vehicles are all but built, parked while they await missing chips.
据我所知，即使是现在，仍有数以千计的车辆已建成，停放在等待丢失的芯片上。
The increasing share of electronic content in vehicles contributes to that delay, as does the shift toward electric vehicles, which may have two or three times the chip content of an internal combustion vehicle.
车辆中电子元件所占比例的不断增加导致了这种延迟，向电动汽车的转变也是如此，电动汽车的芯片含量可能是内燃机汽车的两到三倍。
The shortfalls in supply and corresponding price pressures have eased somewhat, but they have not disappeared.
供应短缺和相应的价格压力有所缓解，但并未消失。
Highly innovative companies in the motor vehicle industry—as well as pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and, of course, information technology—stand out as leaders in driving the quality of goods up and the cost of production down.
汽车行业以及制药、生物技术，当然还有信息技术领域的高度创新公司在提高产品质量和降低生产成本方面脱颖而出。
Why isn't that showing up in productivity?
为什么这没有体现在生产力上？
For one thing, it takes time.
一方面，这需要时间。
History has shown that major innovations take years for their effects to be fully manifested.
历史表明，重大创新需要数年时间才能充分体现其效果。
Firms have to reorganize production—including changing the layout of plants, rethinking management, and reshuffling workers—to maximize their talents.
企业必须重组生产，包括改变工厂布局、重新思考管理和重新调整工人，以最大限度地发挥他们的才能。
7 Electrification of the manufacturing sector took decades as plants were redesigned and rebuilt to exploit the flexibility of getting away from steam power.
7 制造业的电气化花了几十年时间，工厂经过重新设计和重建，以利用摆脱蒸汽动力的灵活性。
8 Likewise, we still have not seen the last of the changes that the IT revolution will bring.
8 同样，我们还没有看到 IT 革命将带来的最后变化。
Productivity-enhancing ideas spread more quickly in more dynamic environments.
提高生产力的想法在更加动态的环境中传播得更快。
When labor and capital move quickly toward their best uses—at the more productive firms—overall productivity accelerates.
当劳动力和资本迅速转向其最佳用途时——在生产力更高的企业——整体生产力就会加速。
And when firms have close competitors on their heels, they may adopt new techniques faster.
当公司有紧密的竞争对手紧随其后时，他们可能会更快地采用新技术。
9 Entrepreneurship plays an important role in this process.
9 创业精神在此过程中发挥着重要作用。
Sometimes, a new idea needs a new firm not committed to old ways of doing business.
有时，新想法需要一家不拘泥于旧的经营方式的新公司。
This kind of dynamism has diminished in recent years, though the surge in business creation in the past two years may be an encouraging sign.
近年来，这种活力已经减弱，尽管过去两年企业创造的激增可能是一个令人鼓舞的迹象。
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Indeed, the U.S. manufacturing sector is healthy.
事实上，美国制造业是健康的。
The recovery from the pandemic downturn has been remarkable, especially in comparison to the Great Recession.
从大流行病衰退中的复苏是显着的，特别是与大衰退相比。
The sector is currently producing at 3 percent above its pre-pandemic level.
该行业目前的产量比大流行前的水平高出 3%。
And, importantly, October marked 18 consecutive months of increasing manufacturing employment.
重要的是，10 月份标志着制造业就业人数连续 18 个月增长。
If manufacturing were to return to its role as a productivity leader, productivity for the total economy would grow noticeably faster.
如果制造业恢复其生产力领导者的角色，整个经济的生产力将显着更快地增长。
Looking ahead, productivity plays an important role in our thinking about the outlook.
展望未来，生产力在我们对前景的思考中发挥着重要作用。
Productivity growth raises the nation's per capita income and, one hopes, the welfare of the typical household.
生产力的增长提高了国家的人均收入，并且有望提高普通家庭的福利。
As I mentioned earlier, productivity growth may also help lower prices.
正如我之前提到的，生产率的增长也可能有助于降低价格。
If we can make more with less, firms can lower the cost of the final product and still remain profitable.
如果我们能用更少的钱赚更多的钱，公司就可以降低最终产品的成本，同时仍然保持盈利。
For this reason, it is heartening to see all the innovation happening in the motor vehicle industry and throughout the economy.
因此，看到汽车行业和整个经济领域发生的所有创新令人振奋。
It is hard to know exactly when all the benefits will show up, but we know the historical evidence suggests they are coming.
很难确切知道所有好处何时会显现出来，但我们知道历史证据表明它们即将到来。
Policy Implications What does all this mean for monetary policy?
政策影响 这一切对货币政策意味着什么？
Innovation and productivity growth undergird our long-term growth prospects, but they have only an indirect link to current inflation developments.
创新和生产率增长巩固了我们的长期增长前景，但它们与当前的通胀发展只有间接联系。
More broadly, the auto sector and manufacturing overall serve as a microcosm to observe many factors buffeting the economy and impacting consumer prices, such as bottlenecks and labor shortages.
更广泛地说，汽车行业和制造业作为一个缩影，可以观察到许多影响经济和影响消费者价格的因素，例如瓶颈和劳动力短缺。
Notwithstanding some easing of these pressures on goods prices, services prices continue to rise briskly.
尽管商品价格压力有所缓解，但服务价格继续快速上涨。
Altogether, inflation is still unacceptably high and must be our primary focus.
总而言之，通货膨胀仍然高得令人无法接受，必须成为我们的首要关注点。
The Federal Reserve has taken significant steps to rein in price increases.
美联储已采取重大措施来抑制物价上涨。
Since March, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has raised its policy rate nearly 4 percentage points, an unusually rapid pace of increases that has significantly tightened financial conditions.
自3月份以来，联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)已将政策利率提高了近4个百分点，加息速度异常迅速，导致金融状况显着收紧。
That tightening is clearly slowing demand in sectors that are interest sensitive, especially housing, with residential investment contracting sharply.
这种紧缩政策显然减缓了对利率敏感的行业的需求，尤其是房地产，住宅投资急剧萎缩。
Consumer spending has remained resilient, however, supported by labor income growth and still-elevated savings.
然而，在劳动力收入增长和储蓄仍然较高的支撑下，消费者支出仍然保持弹性。
As we said in the most recent FOMC statement, we anticipate "ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time." 11 What policy rate is sufficiently restrictive we will only learn over time by watching how the economy evolves.
正如我们在最近的 FOMC 声明中所说，我们预计“目标范围的持续上调将是适当的，以便实现充分限制性的货币政策立场，使通货膨胀率随着时间的推移恢复到 2%。” 11 什么样的政策利率具有足够的限制性，我们只能通过观察经济的发展情况来了解。
Given the tightening already in the pipeline, I am mindful that monetary policy works with long lags.
考虑到紧缩政策已经在酝酿之中，我注意到货币政策的作用具有较长的滞后性。
Thus, as we get closer to that uncertain destination, it would be prudent to move in smaller steps.
因此，当我们越来越接近那个不确定的目的地时，谨慎的做法是小步前进。
How far we go, and how long we keep rates restrictive, will depend on observed progress in bringing down inflation.
我们能走多远，以及维持利率限制多久，将取决于观察到的降低通胀的进展。
But rest assured, we will keep at it until the job is done.
但请放心，我们会坚持下去，直到工作完成。
1.
1.
See Mehrdad Esfahani, John G.
参见 Mehrdad Esfahani、John G.
Fernald, and Bart Hobijn (2020), "World Productivity: 1996–2014," ASU Center for the Study of Economic Liberty Research Paper (Tempe, Ariz.: Arizona State University, March).
Fernald 和 Bart Hobijn (2020)，“世界生产力：1996-2014”，亚利桑那州立大学经济自由研究中心研究论文（亚利桑那州坦佩：亚利桑那州立大学，3 月）。
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2.
2.
See Robert J.
参见罗伯特·J.
Gordon and Hassan Sayed (2019), " The Industry Anatomy of the Transatlantic Productivity Growth Slowdown ," Working Paper 25703 (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, March); Nicholas Bloom, Charles L.
Gordon 和 Hassan Sayed (2019)，“跨大西洋生产力增长放缓的行业剖析”，工作论文 25703（马萨诸塞州剑桥：国家经济研究局，3 月）；尼古拉斯·布鲁姆、查尔斯·L.
Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb (2020), "Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?" American Economic Review, vol. 110 (April), pp.
Jones、John Van Reenen 和 Michael Webb (2020)，“想法越来越难找到了吗？”美国经济评论，卷。 110（四月），第 110 页。
1104–44.
1104–44。
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3.
3.
In 1975, Gordon Moore predicted that the number of transistors found on integrated circuits (semiconductors) would double every two years.
1975 年，戈登·摩尔 (Gordon Moore) 预测集成电路（半导体）上的晶体管数量每两年就会增加一倍。
The accuracy of this prediction, known as Moore's Law, is used as a barometer of the pace of technical advance in the electronics industry.
这一预测的准确性被称为摩尔定律，被用作电子行业技术进步步伐的晴雨表。
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4.
4.
Mismeasurement could also be a contributor to the lackluster productivity gains in manufacturing.
错误的测量也可能是制造业生产率增长乏力的一个原因。
See Susan Houseman, Christopher Kurz, Paul Lengermann, and Benjamin Mandel (2011), "Offshoring Bias in U.S. Manufacturing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 25 (Spring), pp.
参见 Susan Houseman、Christopher Kurz、Paul Lengermann 和 Benjamin Mandel (2011)，“美国制造业的离岸偏见”，《经济展望杂志》，第 1 卷。 25（春季），第 25 页。
111–32; David M.
111-32；大卫·M。
Byrne, John G.
伯恩，约翰·G.
Fernald, and Marshall B.
弗纳德和马歇尔 B.
Reinsdorf (2016), " Does the United States Have a Productivity Slowdown or a Measurement Problem?
Reinsdorf (2016)，“美国是否存在生产力放缓或衡量问题？
" Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-017 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March).
” 金融与经济讨论系列 2016-017（华盛顿：美联储理事会，三月）。
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5.
5.
According to the Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity, over 40 percent of manufacturers report difficulty hiring workers, triple the rate before the pandemic.
根据工厂产能季度调查，超过 40% 的制造商表示难以招聘工人，这一比例是疫情前的三倍。
The Association for Advancing Automation reports that as of 2022:Q3, orders were 50 percent higher than two years earlier.
自动化推进协会报告称，截至 2022 年第三季度，订单量比两年前增加了 50%。
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6.
6.
See David H.
参见大卫·H.
Autor (2015), "Why Are There Still So Many Jobs?
Autor (2015)，“为什么还有这么多工作机会？
The History and Future of Workplace Automation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 29 (Summer), pp.
工作场所自动化的历史和未来，”《经济展望杂志》，卷。 29（夏季），第 29 页。
3–30; Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo (2020), "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from U.S. Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, vol. 128 (June), pp.
3-30； Daron Acemoglu 和 Pascual Restrepo (2020)，“机器人和工作：来自美国劳动力市场的证据”，《政治经济学杂志》，卷。 128（六月），第 128 页。
2188–244; Gilbert Cette, Aurélien Devillard, and Vincenzo Spiezia (2021), "The Contribution of Robots to Productivity Growth in 30 OECD Countries over 1975–2019," Economics Letters, vol. 200 (March).
2188–244； Gilbert Cette、Aurélien Devillard 和 Vincenzo Spiezia (2021)，“1975-2019 年机器人对 30 个经合组织国家生产力增长的贡献”，《经济学快报》，卷。 200（三月）。
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7.
7.
See Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, and Chad Syverson (2021), "The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, vol. 13 (January), pp.
请参阅 Erik Brynjolfsson、Daniel Rock 和 Chad Syverson (2021)，“生产力 J 曲线：无形资产如何补充通用技术”，《美国经济杂志：宏观经济学》，第 1 卷。 13（一月），第 13 页。
333–72.
333–72。
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8.
8.
See Paul A.
参见保罗 A.
David (1990), "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, vol. 80 (May), pp.
David (1990)，“发电机和计算机：现代生产力悖论的历史视角”，美国经济评论，卷。 80（5 月），第 80 页。
355–61.
355–61。
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9.
9.
The relationship between competition and innovation is complicated and a matter of some debate.
竞争与创新之间的关系很复杂，并且存在一些争议。
See Philippe Aghion, Nick Bloom, Richard Blundell, Rachel Griffith, and Peter Howitt (2005), "Competition and Innovation: An Inverted-U Relationship," Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 120 (May), pp.
参见 Philippe Aghion、Nick Bloom、Richard Blundell、Rachel Griffith 和 Peter Howitt (2005)，“竞争与创新：倒 U 型关系”，《经济学季刊》，第 1 卷。 120（5 月），第 120 页。
701–28.
701–28。
In addition, see the discussion of the literature in Rachel Griffith and John Van Reenen (2021), "Product Market Competition, Creative Destruction and Innovation," CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP16763 (Washington: Center for Economic and Policy Research, November).
此外，请参阅 Rachel Griffith 和 John Van Reenen (2021) 中的文献讨论，“产品市场竞争、创造性破坏和创新”，CEPR 讨论文件第 DP16763 号（华盛顿：经济和政策研究中心，11 月）。
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10.
10.
See Ryan Decker, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, and Javier Miranda (2014), "The Role of Entrepreneurship in U.S. Job Creation and Economic Dynamism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 28 (Summer), pp.
参见 Ryan Decker、John Haltiwanger、Ron Jarmin 和 Javier Miranda (2014)，“创业精神在美国就业创造和经济活力中的作用”，《经济展望杂志》，第 1 卷。 28（夏季），第 28 页。
3–24.
3-24。
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11.
11.
See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2022), " Federal Reserve Issues FOMC Statement (PDF) ," press release, November 2.
请参阅美联储理事会 (2022)，“美联储发布 FOMC 声明 (PDF)”，新闻稿，11 月 2 日。
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