The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

Thank you, David.

谢谢你，大卫。

I appreciate the opportunity to speak again at the Brookings Institution.

我很高兴有机会再次在布鲁金斯学会演讲。

1 It is always an honor for me to return to the place where I held my first job as an aspiring economist.

1 作为一名有抱负的经济学家，能够回到我第一份工作的地方一直是我的荣幸。

I had the good fortune to be a research assistant for the eminent economist and public servant, including as Vice Chair of the Fed, Alice Rivlin early in my career.

我有幸成为杰出经济学家和公务员的研究助理，其中包括在职业生涯早期担任美联储副主席爱丽丝·里夫林 (Alice Rivlin)。

It was a formative, if not transformative, experience for me, and I remain grateful to her and Brookings for it.

这对我来说是一次塑造性的经历，即使不是变革性的，我仍然感谢她和布鲁金斯学会。

Today, I would like to speak to you about how I see the U.S. economic outlook evolving, specifically through the lens of the dual mandate given to the Federal Reserve by Congress to promote maximum employment and price stability.

今天，我想与大家谈谈我如何看待美国经济前景的演变，特别是从国会赋予美联储促进就业最大化和价格稳定的双重使命的角度来看。

Then, I will discuss how my assessment of the outlook guides my thinking on monetary policy.

然后，我将讨论我对前景的评估如何指导我对货币政策的思考。

I will start by acknowledging that, due to the government shutdown, this is a challenging time to give an economic outlook speech.

首先，我承认，由于政府关闭，现在发表经济展望演讲是一个充满挑战的时刻。

Federal statistical agencies, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Census Bureau, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis, have not produced many of the data I regularly use in assessing the economy, such as monthly employment data from BLS and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index from BEA.

联邦统计机构，包括劳工统计局、人口普查局和经济分析局，并没有提供我在评估经济时经常使用的许多数据，例如劳工统计局的月度就业数据和经济分析局的个人消费支出 (PCE) 价格指数。

The longer the shutdown lasts, the more data could be disrupted.

关闭持续的时间越长，中断的数据就越多。

Economic Outlook However, we are not flying blind.

经济展望 然而，我们并没有盲目行动。

The staff at the Federal Reserve and I use a wide variety of data from administrative sources and various private-sector providers to continually evaluate the state of the economy in real time.

我和美联储的工作人员使用来自行政来源和各种私营部门提供商的各种数据来持续实时评估经济状况。

That practice has become essential in recent weeks given the lack of official releases.

由于缺乏官方发布，这种做法在最近几周变得至关重要。

These data include alternative measures of inflation, labor-market activity, and production and spending, inflation.

这些数据包括通货膨胀、劳动力市场活动、生产和支出、通货膨胀的替代指标。

For example, states continue to report data on unemployment insurance (UI) claims, and online job boards provide data on available positions.

例如，各州继续报告失业保险 (UI) 索赔数据，在线就业委员会提供有关可用职位的数据。

Various firms provide pricing data on a variety of products and services, including housing and vehicles, and offer information on credit card spending, the moods of consumers and employers, and manufacturing and service-sector output.

各种公司提供各种产品和服务（包括住房和车辆）的定价数据，并提供有关信用卡支出、消费者和雇主情绪以及制造业和服务业产出的信息。

In my first speech as a Governor in 2022, I encouraged the use of more high-frequency, real-time data from the private sector, and I think this has borne fruit.

在 2022 年作为州长的第一次演讲中，我鼓励使用来自私营部门的更多高频、实时数据，我认为这已经取得了成果。

2 And, of course, the Reserve Banks in the Fed System are a rich source of statistical and anecdotal data, some of which are documented in the Beige Book report policymakers receive before each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

2 当然，美联储系统中的储备银行拥有丰富的统计和轶事数据来源，其中一些数据记录在决策者每次联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议之前收到的褐皮书报告中。

In addition, I find broad outreach to business leaders, workers, nonprofits, and families around the country essential in understanding the state of the economy.

此外，我发现与全国各地的商界领袖、工人、非营利组织和家庭进行广泛的接触对于了解经济状况至关重要。

I will rely on this outreach, these alternative data sources, and the latest available federal data when discussing my outlook today.

在今天讨论我的展望时，我将依靠这种外展活动、这些替代数据源以及最新可用的联邦数据。

Inflation First, I will turn to inflation.

通货膨胀 首先，我要谈谈通货膨胀。

Based on the available data for September, it is estimated that the PCE price index rose 2.8 percent in the 12 months ending in September, significantly above our 2 percent target.

根据9月份的现有数据，预计PCE价格指数在截至9月份的12个月内上涨2.8%，远高于我们2%的目标。

Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, was also estimated to be 2.8 percent.

不包括波动性较大的食品和能源类别的核心通胀率预计也为 2.8%。

Both of these readings are as high or higher than their readings a year before, propped up by an increase in tariff-affected goods prices.

由于受关税影响的商品价格上涨，这两个读数均与一年前的读数一样高或更高。

My outreach to business leaders suggests that the pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices is not yet complete.

我与商界领袖的接触表明，关税向消费者价格的传导尚未完成。

Many firms have adopted a strategy of running down their inventories at lower price levels before raising prices.

许多公司采取了在提高价格之前以较低价格水平减少库存的策略。

Others have reported waiting until tariff uncertainty is resolved before passing increases on to consumers.

其他人则表示，要等到关税不确定性得到解决后，才会将涨价转嫁给消费者。

New car models, clothing lines, and other products will be coming onto the market, and that process will continue to provide firms with an opportunity to level set prices.

新的车型、服装系列和其他产品将进入市场，这一过程将继续为企业提供调整价格的机会。

As such, I expect inflation to remain elevated for the next year.

因此，我预计明年通胀率将保持在高位。

Nonetheless, the effect of tariffs on prices, in theory, should represent a one-time increase.

尽管如此，从理论上讲，关税对价格的影响应该是一次性上涨。

It is encouraging that most long-run inflation expectations, including from the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, are low and stable at this juncture.

令人鼓舞的是，目前大多数长期通胀预期（包括纽约联储消费者预期调查）都处于较低水平且稳定。

When excluding tariff effects, 12-month core PCE inflation through September appears to be about 1/2 percentage point lower at about 2.3 percent, suggesting that underlying inflation has continued to make progress toward target.

排除关税影响后，截至 9 月份的 12 个月核心 PCE 通胀似乎下降了约 1/2 个百分点，约为 2.3%，这表明基本通胀继续朝着目标迈进。

My assessment is that inflation is on track to continue on its trend toward our target of 2 percent once the tariff effects are behind us.

我的评估是，一旦关税影响过去，通胀将继续朝着我们 2% 的目标发展。

The big caveat is that tariff effects must prove not to be persistent and that monetary policy remains appropriately focused on achieving that goal.

需要注意的是，关税效应必须证明不会持续存在，并且货币政策仍然适当地侧重于实现这一目标。

This is a point worth dwelling on for just a moment.

这是值得我们花点时间思考的一点。

The FOMC's firm commitment to its inflation mandate is imperative to ensure that inflation does remain in check, as I do expect in my baseline forecast.

联邦公开市场委员会对其通胀任务的坚定承诺对于确保通胀确实受到控制至关重要，正如我在基准预测中所预期的那样。

So let me be clear.

让我说清楚。

I am committed to reaching our 2 percent inflation target.

我致力于实现 2% 的通胀目标。

Moreover, I will be prepared to act forcefully, if the tariff effects appear to be larger or last longer than expected, or if other evidence emerges that higher levels of inflation are becoming entrenched in expectations.

此外，如果关税影响似乎比预期更大或持续时间更长，或者有其他证据表明通胀水平上升已成为人们的预期，我将准备采取强有力的行动。

Labor market I will now turn to the labor market.

劳动力市场 我现在谈谈劳动力市场。

We have less recent official data on the labor market, but the latest available indicators suggest that the labor market remains solid, though gradually cooling.

我们关于劳动力市场的最新官方数据较少，但最新的可用指标表明，劳动力市场尽管逐渐降温，但仍保持稳健。

The unemployment rate edged up over this summer from 4.1 percent in June to 4.3 percent in August, a relatively low reading one would expect to see in a healthy economy.

今年夏天，失业率从 6 月的 4.1% 小幅上升至 8 月的 4.3%，这是一个在健康的经济中预期会出现的相对较低的读数。

To put 4.3 percent into perspective, the average unemployment rate over the 50-year period preceding the pandemic was 6.2 percent.

以 4.3% 来衡量，疫情爆发前 50 年的平均失业率为 6.2%。

Since August, more recent labor-market indicators, such as UI claims, job postings, and individuals' assessments of job availability, signal little change to the August reading—at most a small uptick.

自 8 月以来，最新的劳动力市场指标，例如失业金申领人数、职位发布以及个人对就业机会的评估，表明 8 月数据变化不大，最多只是小幅上升。

Taken together, the slightly rising unemployment rate indicates the labor market is softening, but only modestly so.

总而言之，失业率小幅上升表明劳动力市场正在疲软，但幅度有限。

I would be remiss if I did not mention slowing in payroll gains observed over the summer.

如果我没有提到夏季观察到的工资增长放缓，那就是我的失职。

In most cases, a sharp slowing in payrolls would suggest increasing slack and would generally be accompanied by an increase in the unemployment rate.

在大多数情况下，就业人数急剧放缓意味着闲置现象加剧，并且通常会伴随着失业率上升。

However, in this instance, the slowing in payrolls can mostly be explained by a coincident decline in population growth due to immigration policy.

然而，在这种情况下，就业放缓主要可以用移民政策导致的人口增长同时下降来解释。

Because they are currently driven by fluctuations in population growth, the payroll numbers do not provide a definitive signal about labor-market slack.

由于目前是由人口增长波动驱动的，因此就业数据并不能提供有关劳动力市场疲软的明确信号。

Therefore, it would be prudent for us to consult the other indicators I already mentioned.

因此，我们谨慎的做法是查阅我已经提到的其他指标。

It is important to recognize that there appear to be worsening outcomes for vulnerable and low-to-middle-income (LMI) households.

重要的是要认识到弱势和中低收入 (LMI) 家庭的结果似乎正在恶化。

In the labor market, youth and Black unemployment rates, both of which tend to be more cyclical than total unemployment, have steadily risen since this spring through the latest readings in August.

在劳动力市场，根据八月份的最新数据，青年失业率和黑人失业率往往比总失业率更具周期性，自今年春季以来一直在稳步上升。

The deteriorating labor market experienced by these two vulnerable groups mirrors other emerging strains in some households' financial health and balance sheets.

这两个弱势群体所经历的劳动力市场不断恶化，反映出一些家庭的财务健康和资产负债表中正在出现的其他压力。

Among LMI households, we have observed large increases in delinquencies, especially last year, and there is some evidence that their spending has stagnated, in particular compared to the robust spending growth of their higher-income counterparts.

在中低收入家庭中，我们观察到拖欠率大幅增加，尤其是去年，而且有一些证据表明，他们的支出已经停滞，特别是与高收入家庭强劲的支出增长相比。

This is sometimes called a "two-speed" economy, when the well-off are doing well, while LMI and vulnerable households are not.

这有时被称为“双速”经济，即富裕人群表现良好，而中低收入群体和弱势家庭则表现不佳。

Monetary policy works by affecting conditions for the entire economy and is not well suited to produce specific outcomes for specific groups of people.

货币政策通过影响整个经济的状况来发挥作用，不太适合为特定人群产生特定结果。

Ultimately, I believe delivering on our dual-mandate goals will produce the best outcomes for all Americans.

最终，我相信实现我们的双重使命目标将为所有美国人带来最好的结果。

Nonetheless, it is important for policymakers to monitor the two-speed economy.

尽管如此，政策制定者监控双速经济仍然很重要。

Understanding the challenges faced by so many Americans underscores the reasons why we need to get monetary policy right.

了解如此多美国人面临的挑战凸显了我们需要制定正确货币政策的原因。

Vulnerable and LMI households are the ones who will be the first and most hurt, if the labor market were to suddenly deteriorate or if inflation were to remain too high.

如果劳动力市场突然恶化或通胀持续过高，弱势家庭和中低收入家庭将首当其冲，受到最严重的伤害。

Economic activity To turn to economic activity, recent readings are consistent with solid overall growth.

经济活动 转向经济活动，近期数据与整体稳健增长相符。

Output has been supported by household consumption that has held up better than expected earlier this year.

产出受到家庭消费的支撑，家庭消费今年早些时候的表现好于预期。

Yet, what has been more striking is the strength of business investment.

然而，更引人注目的是商业投资的实力。

Business investment has been driven by investment in high-tech equipment and software, seemingly mostly related to AI.

商业投资是由对高科技设备和软件的投资推动的，这些设备和软件似乎主要与人工智能有关。

As I have mentioned in previous speeches, that suggests to me there is a reason to be sanguine about future productivity growth.

正如我在之前的演讲中提到的，这表明我有理由对未来的生产率增长持乐观态度。

3 I see AI as a general-purpose technology, on par with the steam engine and the personal computer, that has the potential to transform the economy and boost productivity.

3 我认为人工智能是一种通用技术，与蒸汽机和个人电脑一样，有潜力改变经济并提高生产力。

I expect this sector to continue to provide support to output growth over the next few years, at least.

我预计该行业至少在未来几年将继续为产出增长提供支持。

In the very near term, I see the federal government shutdown as weighing on activity this quarter.

在短期内，我认为联邦政府关闭将对本季度的活动造成压力。

Furloughing federal workers and forgoing government purchases of goods and services, including those provided by contractors, directly lowers output in the public sector.

让联邦工作人员休假并放弃政府购买商品和服务（包括承包商提供的商品和服务）会直接降低公共部门的产出。

And spillover effects to the private sector are worth considering.

对私营部门的溢出效应值得考虑。

Potential delays in government payments, permits, inspections, insurance provision and other functions could slow certain spending and investment activities, and some small business contractors with very little cushion may never be paid and may ultimately close their businesses.

政府付款、许可、检查、保险提供和其他职能的潜在延迟可能会减缓某些支出和投资活动，一些缓冲很少的小企业承包商可能永远不会得到付款，并可能最终关闭其企业。

I see both sets of effects as being largely temporary.

我认为这两种影响很大程度上都是暂时的。

It is anticipated that they would unwind in the following quarter after the shutdown ends.

预计他们将在关闭结束后的下一个季度放松。

In summary, after a temporary slowdown due to the government shutdown, I expect the economy to grow moderately over the medium term, supported by an AI productivity boom.

总而言之，在因政府关门而暂时放缓之后，我预计经济将在中期温和增长，并受到人工智能生产力繁荣的支持。

I see the labor market as still solid, but I am highly attentive to downside risks.

我认为劳动力市场仍然稳健，但我高度关注下行风险。

I see inflation as remaining somewhat elevated due to tariff effects and subject to upside risks.

我认为由于关税影响，通胀仍处于一定水平，并面临上行风险。

Monetary Policy Having articulated my outlook, I will turn to my current view of monetary policy.

货币政策 在阐述了我的观点之后，我将谈谈我目前对货币政策的看法。

At the FOMC meeting last week, I supported the Committee's decision to lower the target range for the fed funds rate by a quarter-point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent.

在上周的 FOMC 会议上，我支持委员会将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 3-3/4 至 4% 的决定。

I viewed that decision as appropriate, because I believe that the downside risks to employment are greater than the upside risks to inflation.

我认为这一决定是适当的，因为我认为就业的下行风险大于通胀的上行风险。

I view the latest reduction in the fed funds rate as another gradual step toward normalization.

我认为联邦基金利率的最新下调是迈向正常化的又一个渐进步骤。

I see the current policy rate as remaining modestly restrictive, which is appropriate given that inflation remains somewhat above our 2 percent target.

我认为当前的政策利率仍保持适度的限制性，鉴于通胀仍略高于我们 2% 的目标，这是适当的。

At last week's meeting, I also supported the decision to conclude the reduction of the aggregate securities holdings on the balance sheet on December 1.

在上周的会议上，我也支持12月1日完成资产负债表证券持仓总量削减的决定。

The long-stated plan had been to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves were somewhat above the level the Committee deemed consistent with ample reserve conditions.

长期制定的计划是，当准备金略高于委员会认为符合充足准备金条件的水平时，停止资产负债表流失。

In the several weeks ahead of our latest meeting, signs, such as an increase in repo rates relative to administered rates, did emerge suggesting this standard had been reached.

在我们最近一次会议之前的几周内，确实出现了迹象，例如回购利率相对于管理利率的上升，表明这一标准已经达到。

These developments were anticipated as the size of the balance sheet declined and supported the decision to cease runoff.

随着资产负债表规模的下降，这些发展是预料之中的，并支持停止径流的决定。

Looking ahead, policy is not on a predetermined path.

展望未来，政策并未走上预定的道路。

We are at a moment when risks to both sides of the dual mandate are elevated.

我们正处于双重使命双方面临的风险都在上升的时刻。

Keeping rates too high increases the likelihood that the labor market will deteriorate sharply.

保持利率过高会增加劳动力市场急剧恶化的可能性。

Lowering rates too much would increase the likelihood that inflation expectations will become unanchored.

降息过多会增加通胀预期失控的可能性。

As always, I determine my monetary policy stance each meeting based on the incoming data from a wide variety of sources, the evolution of my outlook, and the balance of risks.

一如既往，我在每次会议上都会根据各种来源的数据、我的前景的演变以及风险的平衡来确定我的货币政策立场。

Every meeting, including December's, is a live meeting.

每次会议，包括 12 月的会议，都是现场会议。

Thank you again for the opportunity to return to Brookings.

再次感谢您有机会回到布鲁金斯学会。

I look forward to our conversation.

我期待着我们的谈话。

1.

1.

The views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.

这里表达的观点是我自己的观点，不一定是联邦公开市场委员会同事的观点。

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2.

2.

Lisa D.

丽莎 D.

Cook (2022), " Economic Outlook ," speech delivered at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., October 6.

库克（2022），“经济展望”，10 月 6 日在华盛顿特区彼得森国际经济研究所发表的演讲。

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3.

3.

See Lisa D.

参见丽莎 D.

Cook (2024), " What Will Artificial Intelligence Mean for America's Workers?

库克 (2024)，“人工智能对美国工人意味着什么？

" speech delivered at the Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, September 26.

” 9 月 26 日在俄亥俄州哥伦布市俄亥俄州立大学发表的演讲。

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