Something Appears to Be Giving

Last month, I gave a speech entitled "Something's Got to Give." 1 That message was prompted by the fact that we were observing strong economic growth and employment data in the third quarter, while simultaneously seeing a clear moderation in core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation.

上个月，我发表了题为“必须付出一些东西”的演讲。 1 这一信息是由于我们观察到第三季度强劲的经济增长和就业数据，同时看到核心个人消费支出 (PCE) 通胀明显放缓。

While this was good news for employment growth, the pace of real economic activity seemed inconsistent with continued progress toward the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) goal of 2 percent inflation.

虽然这对就业增长来说是个好消息，但实际经济活动的步伐似乎与联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 2% 通胀目标的持续进展不一致。

It seemed clear to me then that something had to give— for inflation to continue falling to our 2 percent target, the economy needed to slow from its torrid third-quarter pace.

当时我似乎很清楚，必须做出一些让步——为了使通胀继续降至我们 2% 的目标，经济需要从第三季度的迅猛增长速度放缓。

If it did not cool off, then it was likely that progress on inflation would stop or even reverse.

如果它不降温，那么通胀的进展可能会停止甚至逆转。

So, what remained to be seen was whether the economy would cool or inflation would heat up.

因此，还有待观察的是经济会降温还是通胀会升温。

I am encouraged by what we have learned in the past few weeks—something appears to be giving, and it's the pace of the economy.

我对过去几周所了解到的情况感到鼓舞——似乎有一些东西正在发挥作用，那就是经济的步伐。

Data for October indicated an easing in economic activity, and forecasts for the fourth quarter show the kind of moderation that is more in keeping with progress on lowering inflation.

十月份的数据表明经济活动有所放缓，第四季度的预测显示经济活动的放缓更符合降低通胀的进展。

In addition, after watching core PCE inflation increase in September from its summer lows, the latest data showed inflation moving in the right direction in October, albeit gradually.

此外，在看到 9 月份核心 PCE 通胀从夏季低点上升后，最新数据显示 10 月份通胀正朝着正确的方向发展，尽管是渐进的。

While I am encouraged by the early signs of moderating economic activity in the fourth quarter based on the data in hand, inflation is still too high, and it is too early to say whether the slowing we are seeing will be sustained.

虽然根据现有数据，第四季度经济活动放缓的早期迹象令我感到鼓舞，但通胀仍然过高，现在判断我们所看到的放缓是否会持续还为时过早。

But I am increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2 percent.

但我越来越有信心，目前的政策能够很好地减缓经济增长并使通胀率回到 2%。

That said, there is still significant uncertainty about the pace of future activity, and so I cannot say for sure whether the FOMC has done enough to achieve price stability.

也就是说，未来活动的节奏仍然存在很大的不确定性，因此我无法肯定地说 FOMC 是否已经采取了足够的措施来实现价格稳定。

Hopefully, the data we receive over the next couple of months will help answer that question.

希望我们在未来几个月收到的数据将有助于回答这个问题。

Let's start by updating the picture on economic activity.

让我们首先更新经济活动的情况。

The initial estimate was that real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a vigorous 4.9 percent pace in the third quarter.

初步估计第三季度实际国内生产总值 (GDP) 强劲增长 4.9%。

We'll find out tomorrow if that estimate holds up, but growth in the quarter clearly picked up from the first half of 2023, when real GDP grew at a little more than a 2 percent pace.

我们明天就会知道这一估计是否成立，但本季度的增长明显较 2023 年上半年有所加快，当时实际 GDP 增长率略高于 2%。

Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for most of GDP, was strong in the third quarter.

占GDP大部分的消费者支出在第三季度增长强劲。

Data on economic activity in October indicate that consumer spending is cooling from its pace in the third quarter.

十月份经济活动数据表明，消费者支出较第三季度有所放缓。

Retail sales fell 0.1 percent, the first drop since March.

零售销售下降 0.1%，为 3 月份以来首次下降。

Spending was down on motor vehicles, an interest-sensitive sector, which may be evidence that that the FOMC's tightening of monetary policy is having some effect.

汽车这一利率敏感行业的支出有所下降，这可能证明联邦公开市场委员会的货币政策收紧正在产生一些效果。

Spending was also down at gasoline stations, mostly because of a sizable decline in gas prices, often a larger factor for this segment of retail than shifts in demand.

加油站的支出也有所下降，主要原因是汽油价格大幅下跌，这对于零售业来说往往是比需求变化更大的因素。

But even without motor vehicles and sales at gas stations, retail sales barely increased in October, which may reflect a broad-based moderation in demand.

但即使没有机动车和加油站的销售，十月份零售额也几乎没有增长，这可能反映了需求的广泛放缓。

Beyond consumer spending, there are indications that manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity by businesses slowed in October.

除了消费者支出之外，有迹象表明十月份企业的制造业和非制造业活动放缓。

If we factor out a big drop in motor vehicle and parts production due to the United Auto Workers strike which ended October 30, manufacturing output edged up only 0.1 percent last month.

如果我们考虑到 10 月 30 日结束的美国汽车工人联合会罢工导致汽车和零部件产量大幅下降的因素，那么上个月制造业产出仅小幅增长 0.1%。

2 Surveys of purchasing managers by the Institute for Supply Management indicated that both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity slowed in October.

2 供应管理协会对采购经理的调查显示，10 月份制造业和非制造业活动均放缓。

Nowcasting models that forecast GDP based on available data are predicting a significant moderation in economic activity in the fourth quarter.

根据现有数据预测 GDP 的临近预测模型预测第四季度经济活动将显着放缓。

After the retail sales report for October, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is forecasting a 2.1 percent pace of increase for these three months, nearly identical with the actual growth rate for the first half of the year.

在公布10月份零售销售报告后，亚特兰大联储的GDPNow模型预测这三个月的增长率为2.1%，与上半年的实际增长率几乎一致。

Something that significantly boosted GDP in the third quarter was a buildup in inventories, which are quite volatile from quarter to quarter.

显着提振第三季度GDP的因素是库存的增加，而库存在每个季度都波动很大。

This volatility reflects how businesses manage their inventories by building them up and drawing them down at other times to manage cash flow and anticipate swings in demand.

这种波动性反映了企业如何通过在其他时间增加和减少库存来管理库存，以管理现金流和预测需求波动。

Private inventory investment contributed 1.3 percentage points to GDP in the third quarter and that likely won't be sustained.

第三季度私人库存投资对 GDP 的贡献为 1.3 个百分点，而且这种情况可能不会持续下去。

Inventory swings could even subtract from GDP in future quarters.

库存波动甚至可能会影响未来几个季度的 GDP。

One thing to bear in mind is that the GDPNow estimate does not include the effects of the auto workers strike.

需要记住的一件事是，GDPNow 的估计不包括汽车工人罢工的影响。

A range of estimates suggest the strike will cut roughly half of a percentage point off the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter and then boost GDP in the next quarter around the same amount, so I will tend to look through the strike impact in considering the strength of economic activity.

一系列估计表明，罢工将使第四季度的 GDP 增长率下降约半个百分点，然后使下一季度的 GDP 增长约相同的幅度，因此，在考虑经济活动的强度时，我倾向于审视罢工的影响。

All in all, it seems like output growth is moderating as I had hoped it would, supporting continued progress on inflation.

总而言之，产出增长似乎正如我所希望的那样放缓，支持通胀的持续进展。

The labor market is also cooling off.

劳动力市场也在降温。

Job creation is down this year from the high rates of 2022, and the unemployment rate has risen from a more than 50-year low of 3.4 percent in April to 3.9 percent in October.

今年创造的就业机会较 2022 年的高位有所下降，失业率也从 4 月份 3.4% 的 50 多年来最低点上升至 10 月份的 3.9%。

The ratio of job vacancies to people seeking work has fallen, and so has the rate of people voluntarily quitting their jobs.

职位空缺与求职人数的比率下降，自愿辞职的比例也下降。

Average hourly earnings, which grew at an annual rate of more than 5 percent last year, have decelerated more or less steadily in 2023 to 4.1 percent in October.

平均时薪去年的年增长率超过 5%，但到 2023 年 10 月将或多或少地稳步下降至 4.1%。

These are all signs of a loosening labor market.

这些都是劳动力市场宽松的迹象。

But for all of the measures I have mentioned, they are still at levels that, historically, would be associated with a fairly tight labor market.

但对于我提到的所有措施来说，它们仍然处于历史上与相当紧张的劳动力市场相关的水平。

We have 10 months of data on job creation in 2023, and for the 5 months through May, the monthly average was 287,000.

我们有 2023 年 10 个月的就业创造数据，截至 5 月份的 5 个月，月平均值为 287,000 个。

Even with the strong month in September, the average for the past five months has been 190,000, which is close to the 10-year average from 2010 through 2019.

即使 9 月表现强劲，过去 5 个月的平均值也为 19 万，接近 2010 年至 2019 年的 10 年平均值。

3 That's a significant slowing, but job creation is still happening at a rate that is higher than what would be required to absorb new entrants to the labor force, factoring out changes in labor force participation.

3 这一增速明显放缓，但考虑到劳动力参与率的变化，就业创造的速度仍然高于吸纳劳动力新进入者所需的速度。

And while 3.9 percent unemployment is higher than the April low, it is still basically as low as unemployment got during the booming job market of the late 1990s.

虽然 3.9% 的失业率高于 4 月份的低点，但基本上仍与 20 世纪 90 年代末就业市场繁荣时期的失业率一样低。

Members of the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) report job vacancies are down significantly from 2022, but still at a level that is higher than the late 1990s or any time in the 36 years of the NFIB survey.

全国独立企业联合会 (NFIB) 成员报告称，职位空缺较 2022 年大幅下降，但仍高于 20 世纪 90 年代末或 NFIB 调查 36 年来的任何时期。

4 The bottom line here is that the labor market is still fairly tight and I will be watching closely to see whether it continues to moderate in ways that keeps inflation moving toward 2 percent.

4 最重要的是，劳动力市场仍然相当紧张，我将密切关注劳动力市场是否会继续放缓，从而使通胀率继续向 2% 迈进。

So, let's talk about that progress on inflation.

那么，让我们来谈谈通货膨胀方面的进展。

Consumer price index (CPI) inflation for October was what I want to see.

十月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）通胀是我希望看到的。

For the month, there was no inflation, prices were virtually flat, and unlike earlier moments where improvements were concentrated in some goods and services, the moderation in inflation was broadly distributed.

本月没有出现通货膨胀，价格几乎持平，与早些时候集中在某些商品和服务的改善不同，通货膨胀的放缓分布广泛。

Over the previous 12 months, CPI inflation was 3.2 percent, a dramatic improvement from 2022, when CPI inflation was above 8 percent for most of the year.

过去 12 个月，CPI 通胀率为 3.2%，比 2022 年有了显着改善，当时 CPI 通胀全年大部分时间都在 8% 以上。

For October alone, a drop in energy prices offset increases in other categories, but the increase that month in core inflation excluding food and energy was still a modest 0.2 percent.

仅就 10 月份而言，能源价格的下跌抵消了其他类别价格的上涨，但当月不包括食品和能源的核心通胀增幅仍仅为 0.2%。

Core CPI inflation was 4 percent over the past 12 months, but a better sense of the recent trend comes from the annualized rate of 3-month inflation, which for core was 3.4 percent in October.

过去 12 个月核心 CPI 通胀率为 4%，但对近期趋势的更好理解来自 3 个月通胀年化率，10 月份核心 CPI 通胀率为 3.4%。

As you may know, the FOMC uses another measure of inflation for its 2 percent target, based on personal consumption expenditures, and this consistently runs a bit below CPI inflation.

如您所知，FOMC 使用另一种基于个人消费支出的通胀指标来衡量其 2% 的目标，并且该指标始终略低于 CPI 通胀。

We'll get October PCE inflation on November 30, but a rough estimate based on differences with CPI and the producer price index indicates that headline PCE inflation was 3 percent over three months and 2.5 percent over six months.

我们将在 11 月 30 日获得 10 月份 PCE 通胀数据，但根据与 CPI 和生产者价格指数的差异进行的粗略估计表明，三个月内总体 PCE 通胀率为 3%，六个月内为 2.5%。

The question is whether inflation can continue to make progress toward 2 percent.

问题是通胀能否继续向2%迈进。

There are some factors favoring this outcome, so let me walk through them.

有一些因素有利于这一结果，所以让我来介绍一下它们。

First, housing services inflation, based heavily on rents, has slowed from its peak last year, and the lagged effect of moderation in rental prices in the past year should keep this sizable component of inflation at a moderate level.

首先，主要基于租金的住房服务通胀已从去年的峰值放缓，而过去一年租金价格放缓的滞后效应应该会使这一相当大的通胀组成部分保持在适度水平。

5 Goods prices have contributed a lot to the decline in inflation recently and have moderated so much that they probably won't be contributing much more.

5 商品价格最近对通胀下降做出了很大贡献，而且已经大幅放缓，因此可能不会贡献更多。

But services excluding housing, which accounts for about half of PCE inflation, has not moderated as much as other categories, and there will have to be some improvement there for overall inflation to reach 2 percent.

但不包括住房在内的服务业（占个人消费支出通胀的一半左右）并没有像其他类别那样放缓，而且整体通胀率必须有所改善才能达到 2%。

Labor costs are a significant share of these service price increases, and the moderation in wage growth I mentioned earlier should help lower this segment of inflation.

劳动力成本在这些服务价格上涨中占很大一部分，我之前提到的工资增长放缓应该有助于降低这部分的通货膨胀。

The increase in average hourly earnings has slowed to an annualized rate of 3.2 percent over the past three months, below the 4.1 percent 12- month rate, a sign of continuing improvement.

过去三个月平均时薪的年化增长率已放缓至 3.2%，低于 12 个月的 4.1%，这是持续改善的迹象。

That is also the indication from the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker, which uses household survey data to estimate annual wage increases.

亚特兰大联储的工资增长跟踪系统也表明了这一点，该跟踪系统使用家庭调查数据来估计年度工资增长。

It was as high as 6.4 percent in March and was down to 5.2 percent in October.

3月份高达6.4%，10月份下降至5.2%。

A broader measure of compensation, the quarterly employment cost index, has improved less dramatically this year.

更广泛的薪酬衡量标准——季度就业成本指数——今年的改善幅度较小。

A services-oriented measure of wage increases constructed by the St. Louis Fed also showed slowing.

圣路易斯联储制定的以服务业为导向的工资增长指标也显示放缓。

This research, based on data from the payroll company Homebase, shows wage pressure continuing to moderate in a way that is similar to broader measures of wage growth.

这项研究基于薪资公司 Homebase 的数据，显示工资压力继续缓解，其方式类似于更广泛的工资增长指标。

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This is encouraging, but it is not enough evidence to be sure it will continue.

这是令人鼓舞的，但还没有足够的证据来确保这种情况会持续下去。

Just a couple of months ago, inflation and economic activity bounced back up, and the future was looking less certain.

就在几个月前，通货膨胀和经济活动反弹，未来看起来不太确定。

And while it is encouraging to see inflation by the FOMC's preferred measure dipping below a 3 percent rate over the last three or six months, our target is 2 percent, and policy needs to be set a level that moves inflation to 2 percent in the medium term.

虽然看到 FOMC 首选指标的通胀率在过去三到六个月内降至 3% 以下令人鼓舞，但我们的目标是 2%，并且政策需要设定一个水平，使通胀率在中期内达到 2%。

I will be closely monitoring the pressure on various categories of goods and services prices in the coming weeks to help me decide if inflation is continuing on its downward path.

未来几周，我将密切关注各类商品和服务价格的压力，以帮助我判断通胀是否继续下行。

Let me turn now to the implications of all this for monetary policy.

现在让我谈谈这一切对货币政策的影响。

I would start with the point I made at the outset—monetary policy is restrictive, and it is clearly contributing to the rapid improvement in inflation in the last year.

我想从我一开始提出的观点开始——货币政策是限制性的，它显然有助于去年通胀的快速改善。

The FOMC raised the federal funds rate from near zero to more than 5 percent, the sharpest increase in more than 40 years, and, as some people have noted, we have seen the most rapid decline in inflation on record.

联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 将联邦基金利率从接近于零的水平提高到超过 5%，这是 40 多年来的最大增幅，而且正如一些人指出的那样，我们看到了有记录以来最快速的通胀下降。

Elevated inflation was partly the result of supply-side problems related to the pandemic, and some of the improvement in inflation that we have seen has been due to the easing of those problems.

通胀上升的部分原因是与疫情相关的供给侧问题，而我们所看到的通胀改善部分是由于这些问题的缓解。

But most data indicators and anecdotal evidence suggests that supply side problems are largely behind us so they will provide little support in the future in returning inflation to our 2 percent goal.

但大多数数据指标和轶事证据表明，供给侧问题已基本成为过去，因此它们在未来为通胀回到 2% 的目标提供不了多少支持。

Monetary policy will have to do the work from here on out to get inflation back down to 2 percent.

从现在开始，货币政策必须发挥作用，将通胀率回落至 2%。

There has been chatter that robust economic growth and falling inflation may be the result of higher labor productivity growth.

有人议论，经济强劲增长和通胀下降可能是劳动生产率增长加快的结果。

In fact, productivity growth over the last two quarters has averaged over 4 percent, more than double the long-term rate.

事实上，过去两个季度的生产率平均增长率超过 4%，是长期增长率的两倍多。

However, measures of labor productivity are very noisy, and for the 15 quarters since the advent of the pandemic, productivity has increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent, close to the 1.5 average over the past 15 years.

然而，衡量劳动生产率的指标非常嘈杂，自疫情爆发以来的15个季度，生产率年增长率为1.4%，接近过去15年1.5的平均水平。

So, relying on the productivity growth story to guide the current stance of monetary policy appears to be premature.

因此，依靠生产率增长的故事来指导当前的货币政策立场似乎还为时过早。

There has also been a lot of discussion about the overall easing of financial conditions this month, as reflected in market interest rates and the prices of other assets.

关于本月金融状况的整体宽松也有很多讨论，这反映在市场利率和其他资产的价格上。

To put this easing into perspective, from July to the end of October, the yield on the ten-year Treasury increased about 1 percentage point.

从此次宽松来看，从7月到10月底，十年期国债收益率上升了约1个百分点。

Since the FOMC's last meeting, which ended November 1, the ten-year rate has fallen six tenths of a percentage point.

自 FOMC 于 11 月 1 日结束的上次会议以来，十年期利率已下降了十分之六个百分点。

Long-term interest rates are still higher than they were before the middle of the year, and overall financial conditions are tighter, which should be putting downward pressure on household and business spending.

长期利率仍高于年中之前的水平，整体金融状况更加紧张，这应该会给家庭和企业支出带来下行压力。

But the recent loosening of financial conditions is a reminder that many factors can affect these conditions and that policymakers must be careful about relying on such tightening to do our job.

但最近金融状况的放松提醒我们，许多因素都会影响这些状况，政策制定者必须谨慎依赖这种紧缩政策来完成我们的工作。

The October data I have cited on economic activity and inflation are consistent with the kind of moderating demand and easing price pressure that will help move inflation back to 2 percent, and I will be looking to see that confirmed in upcoming data releases.

我引用的 10 月份有关经济活动和通胀的数据与需求放缓和价格压力缓解的情况一致，这将有助于将通胀率拉回 2%，我将期待在即将发布的数据中确认这一点。

Before the next FOMC meeting we will get data on PCE inflation and job openings, and a job report and supply manager's survey for November.

在下一次 FOMC 会议之前，我们将获得有关 PCE 通胀和职位空缺的数据，以及 11 月份的就业报告和供应经理调查。

CPI inflation will come out on December 12, the first day of the FOMC meeting.

CPI通胀数据将于12月12日即FOMC会议第一天公布。

All of that data will tell us whether inflation and aggregate demand are continuing to move in the right direction and inflation is on a path to our 2 percent goal.

所有这些数据将告诉我们通胀和总需求是否继续朝着正确的方向发展，通胀是否正在朝着我们 2% 的目标迈进。

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1.

See Christopher J.

参见克里斯托弗·J.

Waller (2023), " Something's Got to Give ," speech delivered at the Distinguished Speaker Seminar, European Economics and Financial Center, London, October 18.

Waller (2023)，“Something's Got to Give”，10 月 18 日在伦敦欧洲经济和金融中心杰出演讲者研讨会上发表的演讲。

The views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.

这里表达的观点是我自己的观点，不一定是联邦公开市场委员会同事的观点。

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2.

See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2023), Statistical Release G.17, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization" (November 16).

请参阅美联储理事会 (2023)，统计发布 G.17，“工业生产和产能利用率”（11 月 16 日）。

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3.

3.

After job creation in September was initially reported as 336,000, it was later revised down to 297,000.

9月份新增就业岗位最初报告为336,000个，后来下调至297,000个。

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4.

4.

The survey is available on the NFIB's website at https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/ Return to text

该调查可在 NFIB 网站上获取：https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/ 返回正文

5.

5.

The pace of increase in asking rents and rents on new lease contracts—which do reflect contemporaneous rental market conditions—slowed since early 2022.

自 2022 年初以来，租金要价和新租赁合同租金的增长速度有所放缓（这确实反映了同期的租赁市场状况）。

This moderation has put downward pressure on shelter inflation this year, which should continue going forward.

这种放缓给今年的住房通胀带来了下行压力，这种压力应该会持续下去。

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6.

6.

See Maximiliano A.

参见马克西米利亚诺 A.

Dvorkin and Maggie Isaacson (2022), " Recent Trends in Individual Wage Growth ," On the Economy Blog, December 22.

Dvorkin 和 Maggie Isaacson (2022)，“个人工资增长的最新趋势”，经济博客，12 月 22 日。

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