Research and Statistics Centennial Anniversary: Past, Present and Future

At "A Look at the Past, Present, and Future," a conference celebrating the Centennial of the Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C.

在“回顾过去、现在和未来”会议上，庆祝美国联邦储备系统理事会研究与统计司成立一百周年，华盛顿特区

Thank you, Stacey, and thank you to the organizers for a thought-provoking conference.

谢谢史黛西，也感谢组织者举办了一次发人深省的会议。

1 Provoking thought and discussion are very fitting ways to mark the centenary of the Division of Research and Statistics (R&S).

1 激发思考和讨论是纪念研究与统计司 (R&S) 一百周年的非常恰当的方式。

In keeping with the conference theme, I have organized my remarks around the past, present, and future of R&S.

为了配合会议主题，我的发言围绕 R&S 的过去、现在和未来进行。

My reflection on the past, while idiosyncratic, is also, I believe, indicative of a through line that characterizes the division historically.

我相信，我对过去的反思虽然与众不同，但也表明了一条贯穿历史的分界线。

For me, that past begins in 1983, when I came to the Board as a newly minted college graduate to be a research assistant (RA) in the Government Finance Section, now known as Fiscal Analysis.

对我来说，这段历史始于 1983 年，当时我作为一名刚毕业的大学毕业生加入董事会，担任政府财务部门（现称为财政分析部门）的研究助理 (RA)。

One of our primary tasks was to keep track of the volatile, and somewhat unpredictable, fluctuations in tax receipts.

我们的主要任务之一是跟踪税收收入的不稳定且难以预测的波动。

The daily numbers were transmitted not by computer, but by telephone.

每日的数字不是通过计算机而是通过电话传送的。

Other data retrieval required RAs to go to the Treasury directly in the luxurious conveyance of a D.C. taxicab, reimbursed by the Board—a little perk that, as it happened, never came my way.

其他数据检索要求 RA 直接乘坐华盛顿出租车的豪华交通工具前往财政部，由委员会报销——碰巧的是，我从来没有享受过这样的小福利。

In our section, though, it was a lot of time on the phone, and the two economists I worked with, Al Teplin and Wolf Ramm, would take down the numbers and pass them to me.

不过，在我们的部门，打电话的时间很长，与我一起工作的两位经济学家阿尔·特普林（Al Teplin）和沃尔夫·拉姆（Wolf Ramm）会记下这些数字并将其传递给我。

Obviously, many things have changed in R&S over the past 40 years.

显然，过去 40 年来 R&S 发生了很多变化。

But one thing that hasn't changed much is the role of RAs in analyzing data and participating in other important functions performed by the division.

但没有太大改变的一件事是 RA 在分析数据和参与该部门执行的其他重要职能方面的作用。

Back then, armed with those tax receipt numbers, I would be expected to put together a projection.

那时，有了这些纳税收据号码，我就会做出一个预测。

My bosses had their own projections, of course, and they subjected my work to very careful review.

当然，我的老板有他们自己的预测，他们对我的工作进行了非常仔细的审查。

But I was given that assignment because there was a widespread view then that RAs were here to learn and to contribute meaningfully to research and policy work, and I felt a considerable responsibility to do the very best I could with the important work I had been given.

但我被分配了这项任务，因为当时人们普遍认为 RA 来这里是为了学习并为研究和政策工作做出有意义的贡献，我感到自己有很大的责任，要在分配给我的重要工作中尽我所能。

Much has changed at R&S, but those values remain.

R&S 发生了很大变化，但这些价值观依然存在。

As a young college graduate, I was impressed with how seriously people in R&S took their responsibilities, whatever their role.

作为一名年轻的大学毕业生，R&S 员工无论担任何种角色，都认真对待自己的责任，给我留下了深刻的印象。

I am not the only person whose experience as a young person in R&S was formative.

我并不是唯一一个在 R&S 工作过的年轻人的经历对我产生了影响的人。

In my case, it might seem remarkable that a former R&S RA has returned as Vice Chair, but for decades, former RAs have been returning and serving in leadership roles at the Board and throughout the System.

就我而言，前 R&S RA 重新担任副主席似乎很了不起，但几十年来，前 RA 一直在董事会和整个系统中回归并担任领导职务。

Moving from the past to the present, it has been a while since the things we thought we understood well about the economy were subject to as much debate as they are today.

从过去到现在，我们自认为对经济很了解的事情已经有一段时间没有像今天这样受到如此多的争论了。

At the same time, an explosion of available data, much of it of high frequency and from unconventional or alternative sources, has given R&S many more potential avenues for analyzing the economy and, hence, much more to do.

与此同时，可用数据的爆炸式增长（其中大部分来自非常规或替代来源的高频数据）为 R&S 分析经济提供了更多潜在途径，因此也有更多工作要做。

The list of alternative data sources available to forecast economic outcomes seems almost endless, including social media posts and web traffic, credit card purchases, geolocation, and satellite imagery.

可用于预测经济结果的替代数据源列表似乎几乎无穷无尽，包括社交媒体帖子和网络流量、信用卡购买、地理位置和卫星图像。

These alternative data have transformed the way economists forecast future outcomes and measure the effectiveness of monetary policy.

这些替代数据改变了经济学家预测未来结果和衡量货币政策有效性的方式。

For example, economists can use postings to social media sites to analyze investors', journalists', and households' real-time interpretation of central bank communications.

例如，经济学家可以利用社交媒体网站上的帖子来分析投资者、记者和家庭对央行通讯的实时解读。

2 However, a wealth of data does not necessarily translate into better forecasts and better insights.

2 然而，丰富的数据并不一定能转化为更好的预测和更好的见解。

Recent academic research suggests that alternative data mainly help forecast short-term outcomes and not so much long-term outcomes.

最近的学术研究表明，另类数据主要有助于预测短期结果，而不是长期结果。

3 This is why it is important that R&S continues to be at the forefront of research, making sure we are making the right inferences with new tools and new data sources.

3 这就是为什么 R&S 继续处于研究前沿非常重要，以确保我们利用新工具和新数据源做出正确的推论。

With respect to the future, my expectation is that today's challenges will persist.

对于未来，我的期望是今天的挑战将持续存在。

I have already mentioned one challenge, which is to make sure we are acquiring the right "alternative" data, making the right inferences, and appropriately using tools such as artificial intelligence, including machine learning, to analyze this wealth of data.

我已经提到了一个挑战，那就是确保我们获取正确的“替代”数据，做出正确的推论，并适当地使用人工智能（包括机器学习）等工具来分析这些丰富的数据。

These tools may be very good at estimating correlations, but we know that correlation does not imply causation; thus, their usefulness may be limited.

这些工具可能非常擅长估计相关性，但我们知道相关性并不意味着因果关系；因此，它们的用处可能有限。

Identifying a correlation in the data without identifying causation may lead policymakers to incorrect conclusions and therefore lead us to implement inappropriate policies.

识别数据中的相关性而不识别因果关系可能会导致政策制定者得出错误的结论，从而导致我们实施不适当的政策。

In addition, these tools are very good at data mining, which can be dangerous if it gives us the false sense that a good in-sample fit leads to a good out-of-sample forecasting model.

此外，这些工具非常擅长数据挖掘，如果它给我们一种错误的感觉，即良好的样本内拟合会带来良好的样本外预测模型，那么这可能是危险的。

Economists in R&S and other divisions, as well as academics, have made progress on this front, but there is room for further improvement.

R&S和其他部门的经济学家以及学者在这方面已经取得了进展，但仍有进一步改进的空间。

In addition to the challenge of how to best use these tools and data at the Fed, R&S faces the challenge of understanding what these new technologies mean for labor productivity and the economy.

除了美联储如何最好地使用这些工具和数据的挑战之外，R&S 还面临着理解这些新技术对劳动生产率和经济意味着什么的挑战。

The other challenge I want to highlight is that of making decisions under uncertainty.

我想强调的另一个挑战是在不确定的情况下做出决策。

This is not a new challenge, of course.

当然，这并不是一个新的挑战。

John Maynard Keynes and Frank Knight provided book-length treatments of the subject a century ago (Keynes, 1921; Knight, 1921).

约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯 (John Maynard Keynes) 和弗兰克·奈特 (Frank Knight) 在一个世纪前就该主题提供了长达一本书的论述（Keynes，1921；Knight，1921）。

In addition, in 2003, Alan Greenspan observed, "Uncertainty is not just an important feature of the monetary policy landscape; it is the defining characteristic of that landscape" (Greenspan, 2003).

此外，艾伦·格林斯潘 (Alan Greenspan) 在 2003 年指出，“不确定性不仅是货币政策格局的一个重要特征，而且是货币政策格局的决定性特征”（Greenspan，2003）。

The fact that uncertainty has been a challenge for so long makes me think that it will continue be a challenge going forward, and in the wake of the pandemic, it is highly salient.

长期以来，不确定性一直是一个挑战，这一事实让我认为，未来它仍将是一个挑战，而且在大流行之后，它变得非常突出。

In 1967, William Brainard argued that uncertainty about the power of monetary policy implied that policy should respond more cautiously to shocks than would be the case if this uncertainty did not exist (Brainard, 1967).

1967 年，威廉·布雷纳德 (William Brainard) 认为，货币政策力量的不确定性意味着政策应对冲击的反应应该比这种不确定性不存在的情况更加谨慎 (Brainard, 1967)。

Brainard's attenuation principle is a classic example of what has come to be known as the Bayesian approach to uncertainty and is often cited as the foundation for the gradualism in the adjustment of monetary policy.

布雷纳德的衰减原理是后来被称为贝叶斯不确定性方法的典型例子，并且经常被认为是货币政策调整渐进主义的基础。

That said, methods based on theories of ambiguity aversion led to anti-attenuation .

也就是说，基于歧义厌恶理论的方法导致了反衰减。

In other words, to protect against uncertainty, the appropriate response may be a quick and strong monetary policy response.

换句话说，为了防范不确定性，适当的反应可能是快速而强有力的货币政策反应。

Of course, the right response to uncertainty is probably context specific and thus varies over time.

当然，对不确定性的正确反应可能因具体情况而异，因此会随着时间的推移而变化。

As Chair Powell mentioned in a speech in 2018, there are two particularly important cases in which doing too little when there is high uncertainty comes with higher costs than doing too much (Powell, 2018).

正如鲍威尔主席在 2018 年的一次演讲中提到的，有两种特别重要的情况，在不确定性较高的情况下，做得太少会比做得太多带来更高的成本（Powell，2018）。

The first case is when attempting to avoid severely adverse events such as a financial crisis.

第一种情况是试图避免金融危机等严重不利事件时。

In this situation, words like "we will do whatever it takes" will likely be more effective than "we will take cautious steps." The second case is when inflation expectations threaten to become unanchored.

在这种情况下，“我们将不惜一切代价”之类的话语可能比“我们将采取谨慎的步骤”更有效。第二种情况是通胀预期有可能变得不稳定。

If expectations were to begin to drift, the reality or expectation of a weak monetary policy response would exacerbate the problem.

如果预期开始出现偏差，货币政策反应疲弱的现实或预期将会加剧问题。

4

4

How to respond to uncertainty is a matter that the Federal Open Market Committee, with the help of R&S, has been wrestling with for a long time.

如何应对不确定性，是联邦公开市场委员会在R&S的帮助下长期苦思的问题。

While I could be wrong, as of today, I do not foresee that some all-powerful artificial intelligence will be able to perfectly balance the risks of doing too little or too much.

虽然我可能是错的，但截至今天，我并不预见到某些全能的人工智能将能够完美平衡做得太少或太多的风险。

Therefore, I expect that long into the future, we'll be relying on the knowledge and good judgment of the people of R&S to weigh the risks and to help in providing options to monetary policymakers so that they can make informed decisions.

因此，我预计，在未来很长一段时间内，我们将依靠 R&S 员工的知识和良好判断来权衡风险，并帮助为货币政策制定者提供选择，以便他们能够做出明智的决策。

In closing, congratulations on a century of service to the Fed and the American people.

最后，祝贺您为美联储和美国人民服务了一个世纪。

I have every expectation that the next 100 years of the Division of Research and Statistics will be just as integral to the prosperity and well-being of the American people as it has been to date.

我满怀希望，研究与统计司在未来 100 年将像迄今为止一样成为美国人民繁荣和福祉不可或缺的一部分。

References Brainard, William C.

参考文献 布雷纳德 (Brainard)，William C.

(1967).

（1967）。

"Uncertainty and the Effectiveness of Policy," American Economic Review , vol. 57 (May), pp.

“政策的不确定性和有效性”，《美国经济评论》，第一卷。 57（5 月），第 17 页。

411–25.

411-25。

Dessaint, Olivier, Thierry Foucault, and Laurent Fresard (2023).

奥利维尔·德桑、蒂埃里·福柯和洛朗·弗雷萨德 (2023)。

"Does Alternative Data Improve Financial Forecasting?

“另类数据能否改善财务预测？

The Horizon Effect," Journal of Finance , forthcoming.

《地平线效应》，《金融杂志》，即将出版。

Greenspan, Alan (2003).

艾伦·格林斯潘（2003）。

" Monetary Policy under Uncertainty ," speech delivered at a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming (August 29).

“不确定性下的货币政策”，在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主办的研讨会上发表的演讲（8 月 29 日）。

Keynes, John Maynard (1921).

约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯 (1921)。

A Treatise on Probability.

概率论。

London: Macmillan.

伦敦：麦克米伦。

Knight, Frank H.

奈特，弗兰克·H.

(1921).

（1921）。

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit .

风险、不确定性和利润。

Boston: Houghton Mifflin.

波士顿：霍顿·米夫林。

Powell, Jerome H.

鲍威尔，杰罗姆 H.

(2018).

（2018）。

" Monetary Policy in a Changing Economy ," speech delivered at "Changing Market Structure and Implications for Monetary Policy," a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyoming (August 24).

“不断变化的经济中的货币政策”，在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主办的“不断变化的市场结构及其对货币政策的影响”研讨会上发表的演讲（8 月 24 日）。

Schmanski, Bennett, Chiara Scotti, Clara Vega, and Hedi Benamar (2023).

施曼斯基、贝内特、基亚拉·斯科蒂、克拉拉·维加和赫迪·贝纳马尔 (2023)。

" Fed Communication, News, Twitter, and Echo Chambers ," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-036.

“美联储通讯、新闻、推特和回声室”，财经讨论系列 2023-036。

Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, May.

华盛顿：联邦储备系统理事会，五月。

Söderstrom, Ulf (2002).

乌尔夫·索德斯特罗姆 (2002)。

"Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters," Scandinavian Journal of Economics , vol. 104 (March), pp.

“参数不确定的货币政策”，《斯堪的纳维亚经济学杂志》，第一卷。 104（三月），第 104 页。

125–45.

125–45。

1.

1.

The views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Board of Governors or the Federal Open Market Committee.

这里表达的观点是我自己的观点，不一定是我在理事会或联邦公开市场委员会的同事的观点。

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2.

2.

For an example of recent research that looks at Twitter posts during FOMC days, see Schmanski and others (2023).

有关 FOMC 期间 Twitter 帖子的最新研究示例，请参阅 Schmanski 等人 (2023)。

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3.

3.

Dessaint, Foucault, and Fresard (2023) find that alternative data mainly helps forecast short-term outcomes.

Dessaint、Foucault 和 Fresard（2023）发现替代数据主要有助于预测短期结果。

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4.

4.

For example, Soderstrom (2002) shows that when there is uncertainty about the persistence of inflation, it is better to implement monetary policy that is aggressive than gradual.

例如，Soderstrom（2002）表明，当通货膨胀的持续性存在不确定性时，最好实施激进的货币政策，而不是渐进的货币政策。

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