Reflections on the Economy and Monetary Policy
At the Utah Bankers Association and Salt Lake City Chamber Banker and Business Leader Breakfast, Salt Lake City, Utah
在犹他州银行家协会和盐湖城商会银行家和商业领袖早餐会上，犹他州盐湖城
It is a pleasure to join you this morning in Salt Lake City for the Utah Banker and Business Leader Breakfast.
很高兴今天早上在盐湖城与您一起参加犹他州银行家和商业领袖早餐会。
1 I find great value in engaging with and learning from the experiences and perspectives of those who are directly engaged in the economy—businesses and consumers, and those who support economic activity by providing access to financial services through the broader financial system.
1 我发现，与直接参与经济活动的人（企业和消费者）以及通过更广泛的金融体系提供金融服务来支持经济活动的人接触并学习他们的经验和观点非常有价值。
These experiences help provide context for the economic and financial data that we rely upon for our economic analyses.
这些经验有助于为我们进行经济分析所依赖的经济和金融数据提供背景。
I look forward to learning about how your businesses—and the clients and communities you serve—are navigating the current economic and financial conditions.
我期待了解您的企业以及您所服务的客户和社区如何应对当前的经济和金融状况。
Since joining the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System five years ago this week, the U.S. economy has experienced a number of unique economic challenges.
自五年前本周加入美联储理事会以来，美国经济经历了许多独特的经济挑战。
In my remarks today, I will include some of my observations on a number of economic developments that our economy has experienced during that time.
在今天的发言中，我将包括我对当时我国经济经历的一些经济发展的一些观察。
I will also consider the monetary policy actions taken by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in response to these developments and conclude by highlighting several uncertainties surrounding the economic outlook and how they affect my views about appropriate monetary policy going forward.
我还将考虑联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 为应对这些事态发展而采取的货币政策行动，并在最后强调围绕经济前景的几个不确定性以及它们如何影响我对未来适当货币政策的看法。
Prominent among these uncertainties are whether supply-side improvements will continue to reduce inflationary pressures; the extent to which the demand for goods, services, and labor will come into better balance with supply given the current setting of monetary policy; and the level at which the federal funds rate will be consistent with the FOMC's inflation and maximum-employment goals in the longer run.
这些不确定性中最突出的是供给侧改善是否会继续减轻通胀压力；鉴于当前的货币政策环境，商品、服务和劳动力的需求与供给将在多大程度上达到更好的平衡；从长远来看，联邦基金利率将与联邦公开市场委员会的通胀和最大就业目标保持一致。
The Post–Financial Crisis Economy and Monetary Policy Five years ago, monetary policymakers faced a much different set of challenges than those we face today.
金融危机后的经济和货币政策 五年前，货币政策制定者面临着与我们今天面临的一系列挑战截然不同的挑战。
At that time, one of the primary concerns of the FOMC was that inflation had consistently been running slightly below the Committee's 2 percent inflation target, despite years of accommodative monetary policy following the 2007–08 financial crisis and subsequent recession.
当时，联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 的主要担忧之一是，尽管在 2007-08 年金融危机和随后的经济衰退之后多年来一直实行宽松的货币政策，但通胀始终略低于委员会 2% 的通胀目标。
More broadly, many central banks around the world were grappling with the prospect of structurally lower interest rates due to a variety of factors including demographic changes and higher savings rates, lower potential output and productivity growth, and greater investor demand for safe assets like Treasury securities.
更广泛地说，由于人口变化和储蓄率上升、潜在产出和生产率增长下降以及投资者对国债等安全资产的需求增加等多种因素，世界各地许多央行都在努力应对结构性利率下降的前景。
One central topic of discussion during FOMC meetings in 2018 and 2019, my first year as a Governor and permanent voting member of the FOMC, was how monetary policy strategies and tools could best achieve the Committee's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment in a world of structurally low interest rates and disinflationary forces that kept inflation persistently under the Committee's 2 percent target.
2018 年和 2019 年，即我担任联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 行长和永久投票委员的第一年，在 FOMC 会议上讨论的一个中心议题是，在结构性低利率和通货紧缩力量将通胀持续保持在委员会 2% 目标之下的世界中，货币政策策略和工具如何才能最好地实现委员会的价格稳定和充分就业的双重使命。
Relatedly, there was an ongoing concern that the federal funds rate, the FOMC's key policy rate, was too close to the "zero lower bound," which would limit the Committee's ability to respond effectively to an adverse shock by lowering interest rates.
与此相关的是，人们持续担心联邦公开市场委员会的关键政策利率联邦基金利率过于接近“零下限”，这将限制委员会通过降低利率来有效应对不利冲击的能力。
So much so that even during the economic expansion there was concern that the Fed would likely be severely limited in its ability to stimulate the economy.
以至于即使在经济扩张期间，人们也担心美联储刺激经济的能力可能会受到严重限制。
In 2018, the FOMC was nearing the end of a gradual monetary policy tightening cycle that had begun in late 2015.
2018 年，联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 即将结束 2015 年底开始的渐进货币政策紧缩周期。
At the time the FOMC had been slowly tightening monetary policy, it had the benefit of a strong labor market, a steadily expanding economy, and inflation near 2 percent.
当时FOMC一直在缓慢收紧货币政策，它受益于强劲的劳动力市场、稳定扩张的经济以及接近2%的通胀率。
The U.S. was also experiencing one of the longest economic expansions in its history, with consistent labor market gains for all segments of the workforce.
美国还经历了历史上最长的经济扩张之一，劳动力市场的各个阶层都持续增长。
During my first FOMC meeting in December 2018, the FOMC completed this hiking cycle by raising the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.
在我于 2018 年 12 月召开的第一次 FOMC 会议期间，FOMC 将联邦基金利率目标范围提高 25 个基点至 2-1/4% 至 2-1/2%，从而完成了本次加息周期。
The FOMC maintained this range until the second half of 2019, when the Committee reduced the federal funds rate by a total of 75 basis points in response to moderating economic growth and inflation and global economic uncertainties related to expectations of lower U.S. growth.
FOMC 维持这一区间直至 2019 年下半年，当时委员会将联邦基金利率总共降低了 75 个基点，以应对经济增长和通胀放缓以及与美国经济增长放缓预期相关的全球经济不确定性。
2 Although the underlying issues were quite different, there were similarities to the issues we face today.
2 尽管根本问题有很大不同，但与我们今天面临的问题有相似之处。
At that time, the Federal Reserve was also in the process of normalizing the size of its balance sheet, which stood at just under $4 trillion in December 2018.
当时，美联储也正在使其资产负债表规模正常化，2018 年 12 月资产负债表规模略低于 4 万亿美元。
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Then, in March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic created an unprecedented shock to the global economy and financial system.
随后，2020 年 3 月，COVID-19 大流行对全球经济和金融体系造成了前所未有的冲击。
This shock—combined with the policy responses of governments and central banks around the world—disrupted many of the economic dynamics that had influenced the economy over the past several decades.
这种冲击加上世界各国政府和央行的政策反应，扰乱了过去几十年影响经济的许多经济动态。
These impacts will affect how we think about monetary policy going forward, but let's put the event and response into better context.
这些影响将影响我们对未来货币政策的看法，但让我们把这一事件和反应放在更好的背景下。
The Pandemic Policy Response and Economic Recovery Widespread economic lockdowns and social isolation, combined with other pandemic effects, caused the swiftest and deepest contraction in employment and economic activity since the Great Depression.
疫情政策应对和经济复苏 广泛的经济封锁和社会隔离，加上其他疫情影响，导致就业和经济活动出现大萧条以来最迅速、最严重的萎缩。
Many critical parts of the U.S. financial system experienced significant disruption or completely ceased to function.
美国金融体系的许多关键部分经历了严重破坏或完全停止运作。
The Federal Reserve responded forcefully to mitigate the financial market turmoil and the economic effects of the rapid shutdown of the U.S. economy.
美联储采取了强有力的应对措施，以缓解金融市场动荡和美国经济迅速关闭的经济影响。
As a part of its response, the FOMC quickly lowered the target range for the federal funds rate back to 0 to 1/4 percent and began purchasing large amounts of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities.
作为应对措施的一部分，联邦公开市场委员会迅速将联邦基金利率目标区间降至 0% 至 1/4%，并开始购买大量国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券。
These purchases were initially designed to support the smooth functioning of security markets to support the flow of credit to businesses and households and, later, to provide additional monetary policy accommodation to support economic activity and labor markets.
这些购买最初旨在支持证券市场的平稳运行，以支持信贷流向企业和家庭，随后提供额外的货币政策宽松以支持经济活动和劳动力市场。
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Central banks in other countries and jurisdictions also implemented accommodative monetary policy to support their economies during the early phases of the pandemic.
其他国家和地区的央行也在疫情初期实施了宽松的货币政策以支持本国经济。
In addition, fiscal authorities around the world implemented programs to support labor markets and enable household and business spending.
此外，世界各地的财政当局实施了支持劳动力市场并促进家庭和企业支出的计划。
In the U.S., these programs and policies included the Paycheck Protection Program and other CARES Act programs designed to support businesses, households, and state and local governments.
在美国，这些计划和政策包括薪资保护计划和其他旨在支持企业、家庭以及州和地方政府的《关怀法案》计划。
These policies, combined with extremely accommodative monetary policies, bolstered private-sector and local government balance sheets.
这些政策与极其宽松的货币政策相结合，支撑了私营部门和地方政府的资产负债表。
They also resulted in what has come to be referred to as "excess savings"—money that consumers would have spent otherwise but couldn't, given a number of physical- and supply-related constraints.
它们还导致了所谓的“超额储蓄”——消费者本来可以花掉的钱，但由于许多与实物和供应相关的限制而无法花掉。
The innovative approaches adopted by many American businesses—including shifting to online sales and complying with social-distancing requirements to meet government operating requirements—the excess savings, and the newly introduced medical treatments supported a sharp economic rebound in 2021, with more than 5 percent real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first two quarters.
许多美国企业采取的创新做法——包括转向网上销售、遵守社交距离要求以满足政府运营要求——超额储蓄和新推出的医疗措施支撑了2021年经济大幅反弹，前两个季度实际国内生产总值(GDP)增长超过5%。
Strong demand, early retirements, generous fiscal support, very low legal immigration, and a mismatch between available jobs and workers all contributed to a very tight labor market.
强劲的需求、提前退休、慷慨的财政支持、极低的合法移民以及现有工作和工人之间的不匹配，都导致了劳动力市场非常紧张。
The unusually rapid rebound in economic activity, the pandemic-driven shift in consumer spending toward goods, reduced manufacturing capacity in some sectors, and supply-chain vulnerabilities led to crippling supply-chain bottlenecks in a number of areas.
经济活动异常迅速反弹、疫情导致消费支出转向商品、部分行业制造能力下降以及供应链脆弱性导致多个领域供应链瓶颈严重。
Eventually, given these supply–demand imbalances amid accommodative fiscal and monetary policies, inflation moved up to very high levels.
最终，由于宽松的财政和货币政策导致供需失衡，通胀升至非常高的水平。
By the second half of 2021, inflationary pressures intensified and became more broad based.
到2021年下半年，通胀压力加剧、范围更加广泛。
Labor markets were extremely tight, though data available at the time did not reflect the true extent of this tightness.
劳动力市场极其紧张，尽管当时可用的数据并未反映这种紧张的真实程度。
Of the many difficult issues the Committee faced at the time, one of the most important was whether the inflationary pressures would be persistent or resolve as supply-side pressures eventually eased.
在委员会当时面临的许多难题中，最重要的问题之一是通胀压力是否会持续存在，还是随着供给侧压力最终缓解而得到缓解。
The June 2021 Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed the median FOMC participant expected annual personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation to be 3.4 percent at the end of 2021 and to settle at 2.1 percent by the end of 2022.
2021 年 6 月的经济预测摘要 (SEP) 显示，FOMC 参与者预计年度个人消费支出 (PCE) 通胀率到 2021 年底将为 3.4%，到 2022 年底将稳定在 2.1%。
5 Private-sector forecasters expected slightly lower inflation of 2.9 percent at year-end 2021 and projected it to be 2.3 percent by the end of 2022.
5 私营部门预测者预计 2021 年底通胀率将小幅下降至 2.9%，并预计到 2022 年底将达到 2.3%。
6 With the benefit of hindsight, we know now that most forecasters, ourselves included, vastly misjudged the persistence of inflation at that time, with PCE inflation of 5.9 percent for both 2021 and 2022.
6 事后看来，我们现在知道，包括我们自己在内的大多数预测者都严重错误地判断了当时通胀的持续性，2021 年和 2022 年的 PCE 通胀率为 5.9%。
This underscores the challenge we faced in discerning which factors were driving inflation and how long those forces would persist.
这凸显了我们在辨别哪些因素正在推动通胀以及这些因素会持续多久方面面临的挑战。
High Inflation and the Response of Monetary Policy In the second half of 2021, it became clear that the FOMC's monetary policy stance was too accommodative in the presence of growing inflationary pressures and that the Committee needed to move toward a tighter policy stance.
高通胀与货币政策反应 2021年下半年，在通胀压力不断加大的情况下，联邦公开市场委员会的货币政策立场明显过于宽松，委员会需要转向更紧缩的政策立场。
7 It seems likely to me that the experience of the years leading up to the pandemic, when inflation was persistently low, made it hard for forecasters to foresee how quickly that could change.
7 在我看来，大流行前几年通货膨胀持续处于低位的经历可能使预测者很难预见这种情况会以多快的速度发生变化。
Of course, the inflation and labor data did not accurately reflect the economic conditions prevailing at the time and were subsequently substantially revised.
当然，通胀和劳动力数据并没有准确反映当时的经济状况，随后也进行了大幅修正。
Together, these factors likely also led to a delay in the removal of monetary policy accommodation in 2021.
这些因素加起来也可能导致 2021 年货币政策宽松取消的推迟。
8 The monetary policy experience during the pandemic highlights how structural changes in the economy can be difficult to identify in real time.
8 疫情期间的货币政策经验凸显了经济结构性变化如何难以实时识别。
By November 2021, the target range for the federal funds rate was still at 0 to 1/4 percent.
到 2021 年 11 月，联邦基金利率的目标范围仍为 0% 至 1/4%。
And we continued to purchase assets at the same pace as earlier in the year, although at our November 2021 meeting we announced that we would begin to slow the pace of purchases later that month and in December.
我们继续以与今年早些时候相同的速度购买资产，尽管在 2021 年 11 月的会议上，我们宣布将在当月晚些时候和 12 月开始放慢购买速度。
9 At the December 2021 meeting, we doubled the pace of tapering, which accelerated the end of purchases to the following March.
9 在 2021 年 12 月的会议上，我们将缩减步伐加倍，从而将采购结束时间加快至次年 3 月。
The FOMC finally raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points and ended the purchase of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities at the March 2022 meeting.
FOMC 最终在 2022 年 3 月的会议上将联邦基金利率目标区间上调 25 个基点，并结束了购买国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券。
And in May, the FOMC announced its plan to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's securities holdings—which then stood at around $8.5 trillion—starting in June and at a pace much faster than in the previous episode of balance sheet reduction.
5 月份，联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 宣布计划从 6 月份开始减少美联储所持有的证券规模（当时的规模约为 8.5 万亿美元），其速度比上一次削减资产负债表的速度要快得多。
10 The FOMC also continued to increase the target range for the federal funds rate over the course of 2022 at a pace much faster than in previous tightening cycles, as it became clear that inflation was higher and more persistent than many forecasters had expected.
10 联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 还继续上调 2022 年联邦基金利率的目标范围，其速度比之前的紧缩周期要快得多，因为很明显，通货膨胀比许多预测者的预期更高、更持久。
Twelve-month total PCE inflation peaked at 6.6 percent just before the June 2022 meeting, reflecting both high core inflation and higher energy and food prices, which were influenced by geopolitical conflicts.
就在 2022 年 6 月会议之前，12 个月个人消费支出 (PCE) 通胀总额达到 6.6% 的峰值，反映出核心通胀高企以及受地缘政治冲突影响的能源和食品价格上涨。
To date, the FOMC has increased the target range for the federal funds rate to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent and has been reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's securities holdings, which now stand at just above $7 trillion.
迄今为止，FOMC 已将联邦基金利率的目标范围提高至 5-1/4% 至 5-1/2%，并一直在减少美联储持有的证券规模，目前该规模略高于 7 万亿美元。
We have also seen significant progress on bringing inflation down, so far without impairing the strength of the labor market and economic activity.
到目前为止，我们还看到在降低通胀方面取得了重大进展，而且没有损害劳动力市场和经济活动的实力。
Looking Ahead At our most recent meeting, the FOMC voted to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at the current level and continue to run off the Fed's securities holdings.
展望未来 在我们最近的会议上，联邦公开市场委员会投票决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在当前水平，并继续减持美联储的证券持有量。
11 Inflation readings have come in lower, with some of the improvement related to a continued easing of supply-side pressures.
11 通胀数据有所下降，部分改善与供给侧压力的持续缓解有关。
But the level of inflation remains high, with the most recent readings of 12-month total and core PCE inflation at 3.4 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively.
但通胀水平仍然很高，最新的 12 个月总体 PCE 通胀率和核心 PCE 通胀率分别为 3.4% 和 3.7%。
And recent progress has been uneven.
而且最近的进展并不平衡。
The economy has remained strong as the FOMC has raised the federal funds rate, and recent data indicate that economic activity accelerated in the third quarter, with real GDP growing at a 4.9 percent annual rate.
随着联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)提高联邦基金利率，经济保持强劲，近期数据显示第三季度经济活动加速，实际GDP年增长率为4.9%。
The most recent employment report showed a continuation of healthy job gains.
最近的就业报告显示就业继续健康增长。
Labor force participation has improved over the past year, with a somewhat slower, but still strong, pace of job gains, a sign that labor market supply and demand may be coming into better balance.
过去一年，劳动力参与率有所改善，就业增长速度有所放缓，但仍然强劲，这表明劳动力市场供需可能正在趋于平衡。
At our last meeting, I supported the FOMC's decision to hold the target range for the federal funds rate at the current level as we continue to assess incoming information and its implications for the outlook.
在我们上次会议上，我支持联邦公开市场委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在当前水平，同时我们将继续评估收到的信息及其对前景的影响。
But my baseline economic outlook continues to expect that we will need to increase the federal funds rate further to keep policy sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to our 2 percent target in a timely way.
但我的基本经济前景仍然预计，我们将需要进一步提高联邦基金利率，以保持政策足够的限制性，从而及时将通胀率降至 2% 的目标。
However, monetary policy is not on a preset course, and I will continue to closely watch the incoming data as I assess the implications for the economic outlook and the appropriate path of monetary policy.
然而，货币政策并没有走上预设的轨道，我将继续密切关注即将发布的数据，评估其对经济前景的影响和适当的货币政策路径。
There are several uncertainties surrounding my baseline outlook that will influence my view of appropriate monetary policy going forward.
我的基准前景存在一些不确定性，这些不确定性将影响我对未来适当货币政策的看法。
First, much of the improvement in inflation over the past year has been due to supply-side improvements, such as improving supply chains, increases in labor force participation, and lower energy prices.
首先，过去一年通胀的改善很大程度上归功于供给侧的改善，例如供应链的改善、劳动力参与度的提高以及能源价格的下降。
It is unclear whether further supply-side improvements will continue to lower inflation.
目前尚不清楚供给侧的进一步改善是否会继续降低通胀。
Some firms are now shifting their supply chains closer to home in place of more global supply chains.
一些公司现在正在将其供应链转移到离本土更近的地方，以取代更多的全球供应链。
Government policies such as the CHIPS and IRA Acts are supporting these shifts by encouraging greater investment in developing domestic manufacturing capacity, including for semiconductors and electric vehicle batteries.
《CHIPS》和《IRA 法案》等政府政策通过鼓励加大投资发展国内制造能力（包括半导体和电动汽车电池）来支持这些转变。
How these investments work out over time may affect the productive capacity of the U.S. economy.
随着时间的推移，这些投资的效果可能会影响美国经济的生产能力。
And while these investments have the potential to increase productive capacity, over the next few years they may also create strong demand for labor and equipment in areas without the necessary physical resources to support the development, which may increase inflationary pressures.
虽然这些投资有潜力提高生产能力，但在未来几年内，它们也可能在没有必要的物质资源来支持发展的地区创造对劳动力和设备的强劲需求，这可能会增加通胀压力。
In my view, there is also a risk that over the coming months higher energy prices could reverse some of the recent progress made by supply-side improvements to bring overall inflation down.
我认为，还存在这样的风险：未来几个月能源价格上涨可能会逆转最近为降低整体通胀而改善供给侧取得的一些进展。
Second, over the past year, the number of workers in the labor force has increased from improved labor force participation and other factors, including recent growth in work visa issuance for some immigrants.
其次，在过去的一年里，由于劳动力参与率的提高和其他因素，包括最近向一些移民签发的工作签证数量的增加，劳动力中的工人数量有所增加。
At the same time, the average pace of job gains has slowed somewhat and vacancies have declined, a sign that labor supply and demand may be coming into better balance.
与此同时，就业增长的平均速度有所放缓，职位空缺有所下降，这表明劳动力供需可能正在趋于平衡。
However, future gains in labor force participation may be limited, since prime-age labor force participation is currently higher than pre-pandemic levels.
然而，未来劳动力参与率的增长可能有限，因为目前壮年劳动力参与率高于大流行前的水平。
It is also unclear whether all of the workers who retired or left the labor force during the pandemic will eventually return.
目前还不清楚在大流行期间退休或离开劳动力市场的所有工人是否最终都会返回。
We also know that pandemic-era education disruptions from school closures and remote learning resulted in extensive learning losses.
我们还知道，大流行时期学校关闭和远程学习造成的教育中断导致了广泛的学习损失。
There is a real risk that these learning losses will limit the productivity of the American workforce in coming years.
这些学习损失确实存在限制未来几年美国劳动力生产力的风险。
Over time, American workers who experienced these education disruptions may overcome the pandemic-era learning losses, but today, as young people leave education and transition into the work force, there is a risk that either the economy will experience lower long-term trend growth, or that the divide between those who suffered learning losses and those who did not results in vastly different economic and overall outcomes for this generation of American workers.
随着时间的推移，经历过这些教育中断的美国工人可能会克服大流行时期的学习损失，但今天，随着年轻人离开教育并过渡到劳动力市场，存在这样的风险：要么经济将经历较低的长期趋势增长，要么遭受学习损失的人和没有遭受学习损失的人之间的鸿沟导致这一代美国工人的经济和整体结果截然不同。
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The third of these uncertainties is the extent to which strong aggregate demand and the composition of spending will continue and contribute to inflationary pressures going forward.
第三个不确定因素是强劲的总需求和支出结构将在多大程度上持续下去并加剧未来的通胀压力。
It is possible that consumption pattern changes that occurred during the pandemic will prove durable.
疫情期间发生的消费模式变化可能会持续下去。
Prior to the pandemic, goods consumption comprised just under one-third of overall consumption.
在大流行之前，商品消费仅占总体消费的不到三分之一。
During the pandemic, consumption shifted to a greater proportion of goods, like home office and gym equipment, in part because pandemic-related restrictions limited the opportunities available to consume services.
在大流行期间，消费转向了更大比例的商品，例如家庭办公和健身器材，部分原因是与大流行相关的限制限制了消费服务的机会。
As we emerged from the pandemic, the initial expectation was a return to stronger services consumption, but goods consumption remains near 35 percent of overall consumption.
疫情过后，最初的预期是服务消费回归强劲，但商品消费仍占总体消费的 35% 左右。
If goods consumption continues to be a greater proportion of overall consumption, the expected deflationary effect from goods prices could be delayed.
如果商品消费继续在总体消费中占较大比例，商品价格带来的预期通货紧缩效应可能会延迟。
There is also a risk to inflation from higher services consumption.
服务消费增加还存在通胀风险。
With too few workers to fill the number of existing job openings, a continued increase in the demand for services may contribute to persistently high core services inflation.
由于工人太少，无法填补现有职位空缺，服务需求的持续增长可能会导致核心服务通胀持续居高不下。
Additionally, a lack of fiscal restraint could further contribute to inflationary pressures.
此外，缺乏财政约束可能进一步加剧通胀压力。
Another uncertainty is the reaction of economic activity and inflation to the continuation of higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions.
另一个不确定性是经济活动和通货膨胀对利率持续上升和金融状况收紧的反应。
We don't yet know the full extent of the effects of tighter monetary policy and financial conditions on economic activity and inflation.
我们尚不清楚紧缩的货币政策和金融状况对经济活动和通胀的全面影响。
13 There are some signs of interest rate sensitivity for small business loans and corporate debt, and slightly higher delinquencies for existing credit card accounts and auto loans, in comparison to before the pandemic.
13 有一些迹象表明，小企业贷款和企业债务对利率敏感，现有信用卡账户和汽车贷款的拖欠率与疫情爆发前相比略有上升。
However, the presence of cash buyers in the housing market has lowered some of the interest rate sensitivity in the housing sector.
然而，房地产市场中现金买家的存在降低了房地产行业的利率敏感性。
Further, many households continue to hold significant excess savings and are realizing ongoing savings from mortgages originated or refinanced when interest rates were low.
此外，许多家庭继续持有大量超额储蓄，并通过低利率时发放或再融资的抵押贷款实现持续储蓄。
In considering business investment and interest rate sensitivity, the evidence has been mixed.
在考虑商业投资和利率敏感性时，证据好坏参半。
14 The most recent Richmond and Atlanta Federal Reserve CFO Survey suggests that roughly 40 percent of respondents have already pulled back on investment requiring financing at current interest rates.
14 最近的里士满和亚特兰大联邦储备银行首席财务官调查显示，大约 40% 的受访者已经撤回了需要按当前利率融资的投资。
15 However, another 40 percent say that they are not interest rate sensitive, their financing or borrowing is not influenced by rates, or they do not know the level at which the rate would become an impediment.
15 然而，另外 40% 的人表示，他们对利率不敏感，他们的融资或借款不受利率影响，或者他们不知道利率达到什么水平会成为障碍。
Finally, given all of the considerations I have just discussed, it is not yet clear whether the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will need to remain at a higher level than before the pandemic in order to effectively foster low and stable inflation and support full employment.
最后，考虑到我刚才讨论的所有考虑因素，目前尚不清楚联邦基金利率的适当水平是否需要保持在比疫情前更高的水平，才能有效促进低而稳定的通胀并支持充分就业。
In my view, given potential structural changes in the economy, such as higher demand for investment relative to saving, it is quite possible that the level of the federal funds rate consistent with low and stable inflation will be higher than before the pandemic.
在我看来，考虑到经济潜在的结构性变化，例如相对于储蓄的投资需求增加，与低而稳定的通胀相一致的联邦基金利率水平很可能会高于大流行之前。
In some respects, a higher longer-run level of the federal funds rate would be a welcome development, as this would allow the FOMC to more effectively respond to future negative economic shocks by lowering the policy rate.
在某些方面，联邦基金利率长期水平的提高将是一个值得欢迎的发展，因为这将使联邦公开市场委员会能够通过降低政策利率来更有效地应对未来的负面经济冲击。
Structurally higher interest rates might also lead to less concern about the possible financial stability effects of reach-for-yield behavior, as higher interest rates ease pressure on institutions like life insurance companies and pension funds that manage extended-duration liabilities.
结构性较高的利率也可能会减少人们对追求收益行为可能对金融稳定产生影响的担忧，因为较高的利率缓解了管理长期负债的人寿保险公司和养老基金等机构的压力。
Conclusion In conclusion, I continue to see an unusually high level of uncertainty as I consider current economic conditions and my own views on the outlook for the economy and monetary policy.
结论 总之，考虑到当前的经济状况以及我自己对经济和货币政策前景的看法，我仍然认为存在异常高的不确定性。
My colleagues and I will continue to make our monetary policy decisions at each meeting based on the incoming data and the implications for the economic outlook.
我和我的同事将继续在每次会议上根据收到的数据和对经济前景的影响做出货币政策决定。
I remain willing to support raising the federal funds rate at a future meeting should the incoming data indicate that progress on inflation has stalled or is insufficient to bring inflation down to 2 percent in a timely way.
如果收到的数据表明通胀进展已停滞或不足以及时将通胀率降至 2%，我仍然愿意支持在未来的会议上提高联邦基金利率。
We should keep in mind the historical lessons and risks associated with prematurely declaring victory in the fight against inflation, including the risk that inflation may settle at a level above our 2 percent target without further policy tightening.
我们应该牢记历史教训和过早宣布抗通胀胜利所带来的风险，包括在政策不进一步收紧的情况下通胀可能稳定在2%目标水平以上的风险。
Returning inflation to the FOMC's 2 percent goal is necessary to achieve a sustainably strong labor market and an economy that works for everyone.
为了实现持续强劲的劳动力市场和惠及所有人的经济，必须将通胀率恢复到 FOMC 2% 的目标。
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The views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee or the Board of Governors.
这里表达的观点是我自己的观点，不一定是联邦公开市场委员会或理事会同事的观点。
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See, for example, the discussion of risks and uncertainties at the July 2019 FOMC meeting, the first meeting at which the target range for the federal funds rate was lowered.
例如，参见 2019 年 7 月 FOMC 会议上对风险和不确定性的讨论，这是首次下调联邦基金利率目标范围的会议。
The minutes of the July 30–31, 2019, Federal Open Market Committee meeting are available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm .
2019 年 7 月 30 日至 31 日联邦公开市场委员会会议纪要可在委员会网站 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm 上查阅。
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Securities runoff had begun in October 2017 when the Fed's securities holdings stood at nearly $4.25 trillion.
证券决售始于 2017 年 10 月，当时美联储持有的证券接近 4.25 万亿美元。
In October 2019, in response to a brief period of stress in short-term funding markets, the FOMC began to expand the size of the Fed's securities holdings from a level of just over $3.5 trillion to attain a level of ample reserves to the banking system in line with growth in the economy and banking sector.
2019年10月，为应对短期融资市场短暂的压力，FOMC开始扩大美联储证券持有规模，从略高于3.5万亿美元的水平扩大到银行体系与经济和银行业增长相适应的充足准备金水平。
See the October 2019 Federal Open Market Committee Statement, which is available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm .
请参阅 2019 年 10 月联邦公开市场委员会声明，该声明可在委员会网站 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm 上获取。
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The Federal Reserve implemented 13 emergency lending and liquidity facilities under its emergency lending authorities and undertook supervisory and regulatory actions to support the flow of credit to households, businesses, and local governments.
美联储在其紧急贷款机构下实施了 13 项紧急贷款和流动性便利，并采取监督和监管行动，支持信贷流向家庭、企业和地方政府。
See "Funding, Credit, Liquidity, and Loan Facilities" and "Supervisory and Regulatory Actions in Response to COVID-19" on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/funding-credit-liquidity-and-loan-facilities.htm and https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisory-regulatory-action-response-covid-19.htm , respectively.
请分别参阅委员会网站上的“资金、信贷、流动性和贷款便利”和“针对 COVID-19 的监督和监管行动”：https://www.federalreserve.gov/funding-credit-liquidity-and-loan-facilities.htm 和 https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisory-regulatory-action-response-covid-19.htm 。
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See the Summary of Economic Projections released following the June 2021 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, which is available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm .
请参阅联邦公开市场委员会 2021 年 6 月会议后发布的经济预测摘要，该摘要可在委员会网站 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm 上获取。
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Private-sector forecasts reflect the consensus estimate in the Blue Chip survey of business forecasters in June 2021.
私营部门的预测反映了 2021 年 6 月蓝筹股商业预测调查中的共识估计。
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The median FOMC participant revised up 12-month PCE inflation to 4.2 percent and 2.2 percent for the years 2021 and 2022, respectively, in the September 2021 SEP.
在 2021 年 9 月的 SEP 中，FOMC 参与者将 2021 年和 2022 年 12 个月 PCE 通胀率中值分别上调至 4.2% 和 2.2%。
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For example, both August and September 2021 employment reports suggested job growth at much lower levels than consensus forecasts and were subsequently sizably increased.
例如，2021 年 8 月和 9 月的就业报告均显示，就业增长水平远低于共识预测，但随后大幅增长。
Similarly, based on current data, PCE inflation for 2021:Q3 to 2022:Q2 are also revised higher.
同样，根据当前数据，2021 年第三季度至 2022 年第二季度的个人消费支出通胀率也上调。
See the real-time data for macroeconomists on the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's website at https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/pcon .
请在费城联邦储备银行网站上查看宏观经济学家的实时数据：https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/pcon。
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See the November 2021 Federal Open Market Committee Statement, which is available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm .
请参阅 2021 年 11 月联邦公开市场委员会声明，该声明可在委员会网站 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm 上获取。
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See the May 2023 Federal Open Market Committee Statement, which is available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm .
请参阅 2023 年 5 月联邦公开市场委员会声明，该声明可在委员会网站 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm 上获取。
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See the October 2023 Federal Open Market Committee Statement, which is available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm .
请参阅 2023 年 10 月联邦公开市场委员会声明，该声明可在委员会网站 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm 上获取。
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12.
National Centre for Educational Statistics data show fall of 2022–23 school year cohort of 13-year-old's score for reading and mathematics has declined to levels lower than 1992 levels, reversing steady gains achieved since then; see "Scores Decline Again for 13-Year-Old Students in Reading and Mathematics" on the Nation's Report Card's website at https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/highlights/ltt/2023 .
国家教育统计中心的数据显示，2022-23学年13岁学生的阅读和数学成绩下降至低于1992年的水平，扭转了自那时以来取得的稳步增长；请参阅国家成绩单网站上的“13 岁学生阅读和数学成绩再次下降”：https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/highlights/ltt/2023。
The decline is more pronounced among students with lower scores.
分数较低的学生的下降更为明显。
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The literature points to a wide range of estimates regarding the effects of higher interest rates on the economy.
文献指出了有关高利率对经济影响的广泛估计。
See, for example, Ander Perez-Orive and Yannick Timmer (2023), " Distressed Firms and the Large Effects of Monetary Policy Tightenings ," FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, June 23); Nitish Sinha and Michael Smolyansky (2022), " How Sensitive Is the Economy to Large Interest Rate Increases?
例如，参见 Ander Perez-Orive 和 Yannick Timmer (2023)，“陷入困境的企业和货币政策紧缩的巨大影响”，FEDS Notes（华盛顿：美联储系统理事会，6 月 23 日）； Nitish Sinha 和 Michael Smolyansky (2022)，“经济对大幅加息有多敏感？
Evidence from the Taper Tantrum ," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-085 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, December).
来自“缩减恐慌”的证据，《金融与经济讨论系列 2022-085》（华盛顿：美联储系统理事会，12 月）。
For a case study and an overview, see V.
有关案例研究和概述，请参阅 V.
A.
A.
Ramey (2016), "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," in John B.
Ramey (2016)，“宏观经济冲击及其传播”，约翰·B·
Taylor and Harald Uhlig, eds., Handbook of Macroeconomics, vol. 2A (Amsterdam: Elsevier), pp.
泰勒和哈拉尔德·乌利格编辑，《宏观经济学手册》，第一卷。 2A（阿姆斯特丹：Elsevier），第 14 页。
71–162.
71–162。
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14.
14.
See Steve A.
参见史蒂夫 A.
Sharpe and Gustavo A.
夏普和古斯塔沃 A.
Suarez (2014), " Why Isn't Investment More Sensitive to Interest Rates: Evidence from Surveys ," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-02 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, January, revised September 2015).
Suarez (2014)，“为什么投资对利率不更敏感：调查证据”，金融和经济讨论系列 2014-02（华盛顿：美联储系统理事会，1 月，2015 年 9 月修订）。
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15.
See Zach Edwards and Daniel Weitz (2023), " How Are Interest Rates Impacting Spending?
请参阅 Zach Edwards 和 Daniel Weitz (2023)，“利率如何影响支出？
Evidence from the CFO Survey ," Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Research & Commentary, September 27.
来自首席财务官调查的证据，”里士满联邦储备银行，研究与评论，9 月 27 日。
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