Opening Remarks

Thank you, President Gayle, and thank you for the invitation to visit today.

谢谢盖尔总统，也感谢您今天的访问邀请。

I am fortunate to have been accompanied from Washington by a very distinguished graduate of Spelman College, Class of 1986 and member of Delta Sigma Theta, my Federal Reserve colleague Governor Lisa Cook.

我很幸运，有一位非常杰出的斯佩尔曼学院 1986 届毕业生、Delta Sigma Theta 成员、我的美联储同事、美联储理事丽莎·库克 (Lisa Cook) 从华盛顿陪同。

There is no greater testament to Spelman's historic legacy than the achievements of outstanding women like Governor Cook.

库克州长等杰出女性的成就最能证明斯佩尔曼的历史遗产。

One part of that legacy is Spelman's tradition of promoting education in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics).

这一遗产的一部分是斯佩尔曼促进 STEM（科学、技术、工程和数学）教育的传统。

Governor Cook's research highlights the key role of such education in preparing individuals to be inventors and innovators who can generate ideas that will add to our body of knowledge, increase productivity, and generate higher living standards.

库克州长的研究强调了这种教育在培养个人成为发明家和创新者方面的关键作用，他们能够产生能够丰富我们知识体系、提高生产力和提高生活水平的想法。

1 Her work is just one example of how Spelman women continue to make historic contributions in science, the arts, technology, medicine, and other fields.

1 她的工作只是斯佩尔曼女性如何继续在科学、艺术、技术、医学和其他领域做出历史性贡献的例子之一。

I look forward to our conversation, and I thought I might frame it by talking about the Federal Reserve's actions to promote a healthy economy, and how those actions relate to questions students in this audience may be asking about the future.

我期待着我们的对话，我想我可以通过谈论美联储促进健康经济的行动，以及这些行动与听众中的学生可能提出的有关未来的问题如何联系起来。

For example, I am sure that students are wondering what kind of a job market and economy you will be entering when you complete your education.

例如，我确信学生们想知道当你完成学业后，你将进入什么样的就业市场和经济。

Congress assigned the Fed the dual mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability.

国会赋予美联储双重使命目标：就业最大化和物价稳定。

Both goals are essential aspects of a healthy economy.

这两个目标都是健康经济的重要方面。

Congress also gave the Fed a precious grant of independence from direct political control to allow us to pursue those goals without consideration of political matters.

国会还赋予美联储独立于直接政治控制的宝贵权利，使我们能够在不考虑政治问题的情况下实现这些目标。

Other major central banks in democratic societies have similar grants of independence, and this institutional arrangement has a strong track record of producing better policy outcomes for the benefit of the public.

民主社会的其他主要中央银行也拥有类似的独立性，这种制度安排在为公众利益产生更好的政策成果方面有着良好的记录。

To begin with our maximum employment goal, I am glad to say that, by many measures, conditions in the labor market are very strong.

首先从我们的最大就业目标开始，我很高兴地说，从许多方面来看，劳动力市场的条件非常强劲。

A couple of years ago, as the pandemic receded and the economy reopened, the number of job openings grew to greatly exceed the supply of people available to work, leaving a widespread shortage of workers.

几年前，随着疫情消退和经济重新开放，职位空缺数量大大超过了可用工作人员的供应量，导致工人普遍短缺。

Today, labor market conditions remain very strong, and the economy is returning to a better balance between the demand for and supply of workers.

如今，劳动力市场状况仍然非常强劲，经济在劳动力供需之间正在恢复更好的平衡。

The pace at which the economy is creating new jobs remains strong, and has been slowing toward a more sustainable level.

经济创造新就业机会的步伐仍然强劲，并且一直在放缓，以达到更可持续的水平。

That gradual slowing has come in part due to the efforts of the Fed to slow the growth of the economy to help reduce inflation.

这种逐渐放缓的部分原因是美联储努力减缓经济增长以帮助降低通胀。

After declining sharply during the pandemic, the supply of workers has bounced back, as people have come back into the labor force and as immigration has returned to pre-pandemic levels.

在大流行期间急剧下降之后，随着人们重新加入劳动力队伍以及移民恢复到大流行前的水平，工人的供应已经反弹。

Partly because of that labor force growth, the unemployment rate has edged up over the second half of the year, though it remains historically low at 3.9 percent.

部分由于劳动力增长，失业率在今年下半年小幅上升，但仍处于 3.9% 的历史低位。

The increase in participation has been particularly strong among women in the prime working ages of 25 to 54, which surged to an all-time high earlier this year, and which remains well above pre-pandemic levels.

25至54岁黄金工作年龄女性的参与度增长尤其强劲，今年早些时候飙升至历史最高水平，且仍远高于大流行前的水平。

Wage growth remains high but has been gradually moving toward levels that would be more consistent with 2 percent price inflation over time, and real wages are growing again as inflation declines.

工资增长仍然很高，但随着时间的推移，已经逐渐向与 2% 的物价通胀更加一致的水平迈进，并且随着通胀下降，实际工资再次增长。

As for price stability, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has a longer-run goal of 2 percent inflation.

至于价格稳定，联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 的长期目标是 2% 的通胀率。

2 After running below 2 percent for over a decade, inflation increased sharply in 2021, in the United States and in many other countries around the world.

2 美国和世界许多其他国家的通胀率在十多年来一直低于 2% 后，于 2021 年急剧上升。

High inflation imposes a significant hardship on all households and is especially painful for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation.

高通胀给所有家庭带来了巨大困难，对于那些最无力满足食品、住房和交通等必需品成本上涨的家庭来说尤其痛苦。

Beginning in early 2022, we reacted forcefully, raising our policy interest rate and decreasing the size of our balance sheet to help slow the economy and bring down inflation.

从2022年初开始，我们做出了强有力的反应，提高了政策利率并缩小了资产负债表规模，以帮助减缓经济增长并降低通胀。

Inflation has declined to 3 percent over the 12 months ending in October, but after factoring out energy and food prices, which tend to be volatile, what we call "core" inflation is still 3.5 percent, well above our 2 percent objective.

截至 10 月份的 12 个月中，通胀率已降至 3%，但在剔除往往波动较大的能源和食品价格后，我们所说的“核心”通胀率仍为 3.5%，远高于我们 2% 的目标。

Over the six months ending in October, core inflation ran at an annual rate of 2.5 percent, and while the lower inflation readings of the past few months are welcome, that progress must continue if we are to reach our 2 percent objective.

在截至 10 月份的六个月中，核心通胀率年增长率为 2.5%，虽然过去几个月较低的通胀数据值得欢迎，但如果我们要实现 2% 的目标，就必须继续取得进展。

High inflation initially emerged from a collision between very strong demand and pandemic-constrained supply.

高通胀最初是由于强劲的需求与疫情限制的供应之间的冲突而产生的。

The normalization of supply and demand conditions has played a critical role in the disinflation so far, as has the substantial tightening of monetary policy and overall financial conditions over the past two years.

迄今为止，供需状况的正常化在通货紧缩中发挥了关键作用，过去两年货币政策和整体金融状况的大幅收紧也是如此。

3 The strong actions we have taken have moved our policy rate well into restrictive territory, meaning that tight monetary policy is putting downward pressure on economic activity and inflation.

3 我们采取的强有力行动已使我们的政策利率大幅进入限制性区间，这意味着紧缩的货币政策正在给经济活动和通胀带来下行压力。

Monetary policy is thought to affect economic conditions with a lag, and the full effects of our tightening have likely not yet been felt.

人们认为货币政策对经济状况的影响具有滞后性，而且我们的紧缩政策的全面影响可能尚未显现。

The forcefulness of our response to inflation also helped maintain the Fed's hard-won credibility, ensuring that the public's expectations of future inflation remain well-anchored.

我们对通胀的有力反应也有助于维持美联储来之不易的信誉，确保公众对未来通胀的预期保持稳固。

Having come so far so quickly, the FOMC is moving forward carefully, as the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced.

由于紧缩不足和过度紧缩的风险正变得更加平衡，联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 的进展如此之快，正在谨慎推进。

4

4

As the demand- and supply-related effects of the pandemic continue to unwind, uncertainty about the outlook for the economy is unusually elevated.

随着疫情对供需的影响持续缓解，经济前景的不确定性异常升高。

Like most forecasters, my colleagues and I anticipate that growth in spending and output will slow over the next year, as the effects of the pandemic and the reopening fade and as restrictive monetary policy weighs on aggregate demand.

与大多数预测者一样，我和我的同事预计，随着疫情和经济重新开放的影响消退，以及限制性货币政策对总需求造成压力，明年支出和产出的增长将放缓。

5 The FOMC is strongly committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent over time, and to keeping policy restrictive until we are confident that inflation is on a path to that objective.

5 FOMC 坚定致力于随着时间的推移将通胀率降至 2%，并保持政策限制，直到我们确信通胀正在实现这一目标。

It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease.

现在满怀信心地断定我们已经采取了足够的限制立场，或者推测政策何时可能放松还为时过早。

We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so.

如果合适的话，我们准备进一步收紧政策。

We are making decisions meeting by meeting, based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation, as well as the balance of risks.

我们正在根据收到的全部数据及其对经济活动和通胀前景以及风险平衡的影响，逐次会议做出决策。

That is an overview of what my colleagues and I at the Fed are trying to accomplish.

这是我和我在美联储的同事们正在努力实现的目标的概述。

The bottom line, if you are a student, is that we have made considerable progress in reducing high inflation while maintaining a strong labor market, with a lot of opportunity for new graduates.

如果您是学生，最重要的是，我们在降低高通胀方面取得了相当大的进展，同时保持了强劲的劳动力市场，为应届毕业生提供了很多机会。

The unemployment rate has risen a bit, but it is still very low by historical standards, and by many measures it is a great time to start your career.

失业率有所上升，但按照历史标准来看仍然很低，从很多方面来看，现在都是开始职业生涯的好时机。

You will face challenging decisions soon about what professions to enter, and what companies and institutions to work for.

您很快将面临有关进入哪些职业以及为哪些公司和机构工作的挑战性决定。

Some of you will become entrepreneurs.

你们中的一些人将成为企业家。

You have already made one really good decision, and that is coming to Spelman.

你已经做出了一个非常好的决定，那就是斯佩尔曼的决定。

Whatever opportunities and challenges emerge, education will continue to be a key to success.

无论出现什么机遇和挑战，教育仍然是成功的关键。

Higher education is an investment, and not just of money.

高等教育是一种投资，而不仅仅是金钱。

You are investing your time and great effort to gain knowledge and skills that are preparing you for successful careers.

您正在投入时间和精力来获取知识和技能，为您的成功职业生涯做好准备。

Your success will make for a stronger economy.

您的成功将促进经济更加强劲。

For our part, at the Fed we are doing our best to foster an economy that gives you the best opportunity to succeed.

就我们而言，在美联储，我们正在尽最大努力培育一个为您提供最佳成功机会的经济。

With that, I will hand it back to you, President Gayle.

这样，我将把它交还给你，盖尔总统。

1.

1.

See, for example Lisa D.

例如，参见 Lisa D.

Cook, Janet Gerson, and Jennifer Kuan (2021), " Closing the Innovation Gap in Pink and Black ," NBER Working Paper Series 29354 (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, October); and Lisa D.

Cook、Janet Gerson 和 Jennifer Kuan (2021)，“Closing the Innovation Gap in Pink and Black”，NBER 工作论文系列 29354（马萨诸塞州剑桥：国家经济研究局，10 月）；和丽莎 D.

Cook (2020), " Policies to Broaden Participation in the Innovation Process (PDF) ," Policy Proposal 2020-11 (Washington: Brookings Institution, The Hamilton Project, August).

Cook (2020)，“扩大创新过程参与的政策 (PDF)”，政策提案 2020-11（华盛顿：布鲁金斯学会，汉密尔顿项目，8 月）。

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2.

2.

The FOMC judges that inflation at the rate of 2 percent, as measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent over the longer run with the Federal Reserve's statutory mandate.

FOMC 认为，从长远来看，以个人消费支出价格指数的年度变化衡量的 2% 的通胀率最符合美联储的法定指令。

For additional information, see the Committee's Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC_LongerRunGoals.pdf .

如需了解更多信息，请参阅委员会关于长期目标和货币政策战略的声明，可在董事会网站 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC_LongerRunGoals.pdf 上获取。

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3.

3.

While the target range for the policy rate was not increased until March, the anticipated tapering and cessation of asset purchases, along with the signals sent in Committee communications, began tightening financial conditions during the fourth quarter of 2021.

虽然政策利率的目标范围直到 3 月份才上调，但预期的资产购买缩减和停止，以及委员会通讯中发出的信号，在 2021 年第四季度开始收紧金融状况。

According to the Federal Reserve Board staff's index measuring U.S. financial conditions through their effect on the outlook for growth, financial conditions went from providing a 1.7 percentage point boost to future real gross domestic product growth in October 2021 to creating a 0.9 percentage point drag in October 2023; updated data and a description of the index is provided in Andrea Ajello, Michele Cavallo, Giovanni Favara, William B.

根据美联储工作人员通过对经济增长前景的影响衡量美国金融状况的指数，金融状况从2021年10月对未来实际国内生产总值增长1.7个百分点的推动变为2023年10月对未来实际国内生产总值增长的0.9个百分点的拖累； Andrea Ajello、Michele Cavallo、Giovanni Favara、William B. 提供了更新数据和索引描述。

Peterman, John W.

彼得曼，约翰·W.

Schindler IV, and Nitish R.

辛德勒四世，尼蒂什·R.

Sinha (2023), " A New Index to Measure U.S. Financial Conditions ," FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, June 30).

Sinha (2023)，“衡量美国金融状况的新指数”，FEDS 注释（华盛顿：美联储系统理事会，6 月 30 日）。

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4.

4.

Beyond the uncertainty in the economic outlook, we face uncertainty about the precise level of monetary policy restraint and the duration of the lags with which monetary tightening affects economic activity and especially inflation; for further discussion see Jerome H.

除了经济前景的不确定性之外，我们还面临货币政策限制的确切程度以及货币紧缩影响经济活动尤其是通胀的滞后时间的不确定性；进一步讨论参见 Jerome H.

Powell (2023), " Inflation: Progress and the Path Ahead ," speech delivered at "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy," an economic policy symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole, Wyo., August 25.

鲍威尔 (2023)，“通货膨胀：进展与未来之路”，在“全球经济的结构性转变”上发表的演讲，这是由怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主办的经济政策研讨会，8 月 25 日。

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5.

5.

For example, the November 2023 Blue Chip consensus forecast is for Q4-over-Q4 real GDP growth to drop from 2.5 percent in 2023 to 0.8 percent in 2024.

例如，2023 年 11 月蓝筹股一致预测第四季度实际 GDP 增长率将从 2023 年的 2.5% 降至 2024 年的 0.8%。

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