Global Linkages: Supply, Spillovers, and Common Challenges

At “Global Linkages in a Post-Pandemic World” 2023 Asia Economic Policy Conference, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Center for Pacific Basin Studies, San Francisco, California

在“大流行后世界的全球联系”2023 年亚洲经济政策会议上，由旧金山联邦储备银行太平洋盆地研究中心主办，加利福尼亚州旧金山

Thank you, Sylvain, and thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today.

谢谢你，西尔万，也感谢你今天有机会与你交谈。

1 It is fitting and timely that today we are gathered here to talk about global linkages.

1 今天我们聚集在这里讨论全球联系是恰当且及时的。

It is fitting not only because we are beside the Golden Gate—where, just a few blocks away, one can marvel at the massive cargo ships making their way to port—but also because this conference has once again brought together scholars and friends from as far away as Shanghai, Atlanta, and Fontainebleau.

它之所以合适，不仅因为我们位于金门旁边——仅几个街区之外，人们就能惊叹于驶向港口的巨型货船——而且因为这次会议再次聚集了远道而来的上海、亚特兰大和枫丹白露的学者和朋友。

And it is timely because the discussion of the ties that bind us is as important as ever.

它是及时的，因为对我们之间的联系的讨论一如既往地重要。

To start off this conference on global linkages, I am going to discuss supply shocks, policy spillovers, and common challenges faced by monetary policymakers in recent years and going forward.

在这次全球联系会议开始前，我将讨论供应冲击、政策溢出以及货币政策制定者近年来和未来面临的共同挑战。

When the global pandemic hit in the spring of 2020, economies around the world shut down or sharply limited activity, especially for in-person services.

2020 年春季全球大流行爆发时，世界各地的经济体都关闭或大幅限制了活动，尤其是面对面的服务。

Also, it quickly became apparent that shutdowns in any one economy were exacerbated by reduced availability of supplies from other economies.

此外，人们很快就发现，任何一个经济体的停工都会因其他经济体供应量的减少而加剧。

Policymakers around the world faced the common challenge of supporting incomes and limiting the scarring from temporary shutdowns in activity.

世界各地的政策制定者面临着支持收入和限制活动暂时关闭所造成的共同挑战。

The response was similar across countries: fiscal support, particularly to help those most in need, although the magnitude differed, in part because of differences in fiscal space.

各国的反应都是相似的：财政支持，特别是帮助那些最需要帮助的人，尽管规模不同，部分原因是财政空间的差异。

Initially aimed at preventing sharp financial and economic deterioration, monetary policy easing was later extended to support the nascent economic recovery.

货币政策最初旨在防止金融和经济急剧恶化，后来扩大到支持刚刚开始的经济复苏。

Policy rates were cut to or held near zero in both advanced and emerging market economies.

发达和新兴市场经济体的政策利率均降至或接近于零。

A wide range of central banks also bought assets to support market functioning and provide stimulus once overnight policy rates hit their effective lower bounds.

许多央行还购买资产以支持市场运作，并在隔夜政策利率触及有效下限时提供刺激措施。

As economies gradually reopened, demand surged, especially for goods.

随着经济逐渐重新开放，需求激增，尤其是商品需求。

But supply chains were slower to recover, leading to a global surge in inflation.

但供应链恢复速度较慢，导致全球通胀飙升。

That surge was followed by a further upswing in inflation after February 2022, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused a shock to global supplies of commodities, including oil and natural gas, food and fertilizers, and numerous manufacturing inputs.

2022 年 2 月之后，通货膨胀率进一步上升，当时俄罗斯入侵乌克兰，对全球大宗商品供应造成冲击，包括石油和天然气、食品和化肥以及众多制造业投入品。

With inflation unacceptably high, monetary policy turned toward tightening.

由于通胀高得令人难以接受，货币政策转向紧缩。

Central banks in several emerging market economies began to tighten first, seeking to prevent a de-anchoring of inflation expectations that could cause elevated inflation to become entrenched.

几个新兴市场经济体的央行首先开始收紧货币政策，试图防止通胀预期脱钩，从而导致通胀加剧。

Starting in March 2022, the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate 5‑1/4 percentage points, and it has been shrinking the size of its balance sheet since June of that year.

从2022年3月开始，美联储将政策利率提高了5-1/4个百分点，并自当年6月以来一直在缩减资产负债表规模。

Those actions have tightened U.S. financial conditions, acting to dampen U.S. aggregate demand.

这些行动收紧了美国的金融状况，抑制了美国的总需求。

Activity in the housing sector has slowed significantly, with 30-year mortgage rates rising to more than 7 percent, and business spending has been constrained by high interest rates and reduced credit availability.

住房部门的活动显着放缓，30年期抵押贷款利率上升至7%以上，商业支出受到高利率和信贷减少的限制。

Over the past year, amid tightening financial conditions globally, inflation has come down from its peak in most economies.

过去一年，在全球金融状况趋紧的情况下，大多数经济体的通胀已从峰值回落。

In the U.S., inflation (as measured by the 12-month change in the personal consumption expenditures price index) has fallen from 7.1 percent in June 2022 to 3.4 percent in September of this year.

在美国，通货膨胀率（以个人消费支出价格指数的 12 个月变化衡量）已从 2022 年 6 月的 7.1% 降至今年 9 月的 3.4%。

Core inflation has declined from a peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022 to 3.7 percent in September.

核心通胀率已从 2022 年 2 月 5.6% 的峰值下降至 9 月的 3.7%。

I believe the Federal Reserve's actions contributed to this fall in inflation both by restraining aggregate demand and by keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored.

我认为，美联储的行动通过抑制总需求和保持长期通胀预期的良好锚定，促成了通胀的下降。

The fall in headline inflation was helped by declines in global commodity prices from their 2022 peaks.

全球大宗商品价格较 2022 年峰值下跌有助于整体通胀下降。

The spot price of Brent crude oil dropped from about $115 per barrel in April 2022 to just over $80 most recently.

布伦特原油现货价格从 2022 年 4 月的每桶约 115 美元跌至最近的略高于 80 美元。

Global agricultural prices also have retreated from their peaks, though they remain elevated.

全球农产品价格也已从峰值回落，但仍处于高位。

These price declines occurred partly because the supply of energy and other commodities has been less disrupted than feared in mid-2022.

价格下跌的部分原因是 2022 年中期能源和其他大宗商品供应受到的干扰程度没有人们担心的那么严重。

In addition, the U.S. has become an increasingly important supplier of energy on the global market, with U.S. production of crude oil and natural gas reaching all-time high levels.

此外，美国已成为全球市场上日益重要的能源供应国，美国原油和天然气产量达到历史最高水平。

Importantly, global supply chains have largely recovered from their disruptions, with a return to pre-pandemic levels of indicators such as the share of manufacturing inputs in short supply.

重要的是，全球供应链已基本从中断中恢复过来，制造业投入品短缺比例等指标已恢复到大流行前的水平。

This recovery has occurred both because of supply responses motivated by high prices for transportation and key inputs and because of a shift of demand from goods back toward services.

这种复苏的发生，既是因为运输和关键投入的高价格推动了供给反应，也是因为需求从商品转向服务。

One big open question we will discuss at this conference is how global supply chains have changed since the pandemic.

我们将在本次会议上讨论的一个重大悬而未决的问题是，自疫情大流行以来，全球供应链发生了怎样的变化。

Supply is also a significant part of the deceleration in U.S. shelter prices.

供应也是美国住房价格下降的重要原因。

A surge in completions of multifamily housing has contributed to the sharp slowing of rent increases on new leases this year.

多户住宅竣工量激增导致今年新租约租金涨幅大幅放缓。

That slowing will feed over time into a continued decline of inflation in rents and owners' equivalent rents (the rents that homeowners forgo by living in their own homes rather than renting them out), thus contributing importantly to the expected further reduction in overall U.S. inflation.

随着时间的推移，这种放缓将导致租金和业主等效租金（房主因居住在自己的房屋而不是出租房屋而放弃的租金）通胀持续下降，从而对美国整体通胀预期的进一步下降做出重要贡献。

In the U.S., labor supply, which fell because of the effects of the pandemic, has recovered significantly over the past two years, boosted by rebounds in labor force participation and immigration.

在美国，受疫情影响而下降的劳动力供应在过去两年中在劳动力参与率和移民反弹的推动下已显着恢复。

The labor force participation rate, at 62.7 percent in October, has increased by 0.5 percentage point over the past 12 months, while participation of prime-age workers (those 25 to 54 years of age) has increased nearly twice as much.

10月份劳动力参与率为62.7%，比过去12个月上升了0.5个百分点，而黄金年龄工人（25岁至54岁）的劳动力参与率增长了近两倍。

As a result, the prime-age participation rate is now above its pre-pandemic level and is near its highest point since 2002.

因此，黄金年龄段的参与率目前高于大流行前的水平，并接近 2002 年以来的最高点。

The rise has been especially strong for prime-age women, whose participation recently reached a record-high level.

壮年女性的增长尤其强劲，她们的参与度最近达到了历史最高水平。

Over this year, payroll growth has slowed but remained strong.

今年以来，工资增长放缓，但仍保持强劲。

And a broad set of indicators show labor demand and labor supply coming into better balance.

一系列广泛的指标显示劳动力需求和劳动力供给正在更好地平衡。

Currently, there are 1.5 job openings per unemployed worker.

目前，每个失业工人有 1.5 个职位空缺。

While still a high level historically, it is down from its peak of 2.0 early last year and is much closer to the pre-pandemic ratio of 1.2.

虽然仍处于历史高位，但已较去年年初 2.0 的峰值有所下降，并且更接近大流行前的 1.2。

Quits, which soared during the pandemic, have fallen since early 2022 and were close to their 2019 average in July, an indication that workers are less certain of finding another job in a cooling labor market.

疫情期间辞职人数激增，但自 2022 年初以来已有所下降，7 月份已接近 2019 年的平均水平，这表明工人不太确定在降温的劳动力市场中找到另一份工作。

The workweek, which rose to very high levels during the pandemic when firms could not find enough workers, has returned to pre-pandemic levels.

在大流行期间，当公司找不到足够的工人时，每周的工作时间升至非常高的水平，现已恢复到大流行前的水平。

And surveys of employers suggest that hiring and retention are not as difficult as they were last year.

对雇主的调查表明，招聘和留住人才并不像去年那么困难。

To be sure, it is a good thing that the easing in supply–demand imbalances in the labor market and the disinflation we are seeing thus far have taken place with only a modest increase in the unemployment rate, which was 3.9 percent in October.

诚然，劳动力市场供需失衡和通货紧缩有所缓解，而失业率仅小幅上升（10 月份为 3.9%），这是一件好事。

As I have discussed, that favorable combination likely reflected an easing of supply constraints, including in the labor market.

正如我所讨论的，这种有利的组合可能反映出供应限制的缓解，包括劳动力市场的限制。

I am also encouraged by the strong growth in labor productivity over the past two quarters, which, if sustained, could contribute to further progress toward price stability.

我还对过去两个季度劳动生产率的强劲增长感到鼓舞，如果这种增长持续下去，可能有助于进一步实现价格稳定。

I believe that a soft landing is possible, with continued disinflation and a strong labor market, but it is not assured.

我相信，随着持续的通货紧缩和强劲的劳动力市场，软着陆是可能的，但这并不确定。

In setting monetary policy, we need to seek a policy stance that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to 2 percent over time.

在制定货币政策时，我们需要寻求足够严格的政策立场，以便随着时间的推移将通货膨胀率恢复到2%。

I see risks as two sided, requiring us to balance the risk of not tightening enough against the risk of tightening too much.

我认为风险是两方面的，要求我们平衡紧缩不够的风险和紧缩过度的风险。

We have seen continued momentum in economic growth and consumer spending, even in the face of monetary policy tightening over the past year and a half.

即使在过去一年半的货币政策收紧的情况下，我们仍然看到经济增长和消费者支出的持续势头。

There is a risk that such continued momentum in demand could keep the economy and labor market tight and slow the pace of disinflation.

这种持续的需求增长势头可能会导致经济和劳动力市场持续紧张，并减缓通货紧缩的步伐。

But I am also attuned to the risk of an unnecessarily sharp decline in economic activity and employment.

但我也意识到经济活动和就业出现不必要的急剧下降的风险。

Some parts of the economy are showing strain from tighter financial conditions.

经济的某些领域正因金融状况收紧而面临压力。

Households at the lower end of the income and wealth distributions have largely exhausted their excess savings, while delinquencies on auto loans and credit cards have risen to pre-pandemic levels or higher.

收入和财富分配较低端的家庭基本上耗尽了多余的储蓄，而汽车贷款和信用卡的拖欠率已上升至大流行前的水平或更高。

Small businesses generally borrow for shorter terms than larger businesses, and they are facing tighter credit conditions and higher rates as they roll over those short-term loans.

小型企业的借款期限通常比大型企业短，而且它们在展期短期贷款时面临着更严格的信贷条件和更高的利率。

Homebuilders have done surprisingly well over the past year and a half, but they see the current level of mortgage rates as substantially slowing demand.

过去一年半里，房屋建筑商的表现出人意料地好，但他们认为当前的抵押贷款利率水平大大减缓了需求。

As we try to identify the full, lagged effects of monetary policy tightening, I am considering whether small businesses, the housing sector, and low- and moderate-income households could be warning of broader stress ahead.

当我们试图确定货币政策紧缩的全面滞后影响时，我正在考虑小企业、住房部门以及中低收入家庭是否可以对未来更广泛的压力发出警告。

The linkages we are talking about today connect us in ways that are economically beneficial but also have the potential to transmit stress.

我们今天讨论的联系以经济上有利的方式将我们联系起来，但也有可能传递压力。

For that reason, I am also attentive to the risk of renewed global economic shocks.

因此，我也关注全球经济再次冲击的风险。

In recent weeks, oil prices have been volatile but are down from their September peaks.

最近几周，油价一直波动，但较 9 月份的峰值有所回落。

Amid highly elevated geopolitical tensions, however, the risk of a sharp rise in global energy prices remains salient.

然而，在地缘政治紧张局势高度加剧的情况下，全球能源价格大幅上涨的风险仍然突出。

I also see signs of subdued economic growth in our major trading partners, whose health affects U.S. economic conditions related to our dual mandate.

我还看到我们主要贸易伙伴经济增长疲软的迹象，它们的健康状况影响着与我们的双重使命相关的美国经济状况。

China's economic growth has remained below pre-pandemic rates, and activity in its property sector has been extremely weak.

中国的经济增长仍低于大流行前的水平，房地产行业的活动极其疲弱。

In Europe, recent data point to muted growth as the region deals with tightened financial conditions and the effects of past energy price shocks.

在欧洲，最近的数据表明，由于该地区面临金融状况收紧和过去能源价格冲击的影响，该地区经济增长乏力。

The Federal Open Market Committee is, of course, focused on our dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices in the U.S. But I recognize that we act in a world of global markets and strong economic linkages.

当然，联邦公开市场委员会的重点是美国就业最大化和物价稳定的双重使命。但我认识到，我们是在一个拥有全球市场和强大经济联系的世界中行事的。

I pay close attention to the spillovers of our policies abroad and spillovers to our economy from monetary policy in other countries.

我密切关注我们的对外政策溢出效应以及其他国家货币政策对我国经济的溢出效应。

And Federal Reserve staff have done considerable work over the years to understand and quantify these two-way spillovers.

多年来，美联储工作人员做了大量工作来理解和量化这些双向溢出效应。

I will draw on some of that work in the discussion that follows.

我将在接下来的讨论中借鉴其中的一些工作。

We would expect the monetary policy of one country to have spillovers to other economies through three main channels.

我们预计一国的货币政策将通过三个主要渠道对其他经济体产生溢出效应。

2

2

The first channel works through domestic demand.

第一个渠道是通过内需发挥作用。

Taking the U.S. as an example, when U.S. monetary policy tightens, U.S. aggregate demand slows, lowering U.S. imports of foreign products and dampening foreign gross domestic product (GDP) and foreign inflation.

以美国为例，当美国货币政策收紧时，美国总需求放缓，导致美国进口外国产品减少，抑制外国国内生产总值（GDP）和外国通胀。

The second channel, the financial channel, captures the effects of the rise in U.S. longer-term yields that typically accompanies a tightening of U.S. monetary policy.

第二个渠道是金融渠道，它反映了美国长期收益率上升的影响，这种上升通常伴随着美国货币政策的收紧。

Higher U.S. longer-term yields lead international investors to rebalance their portfolios from foreign to U.S. assets, tightening foreign financial conditions and reducing GDP and inflation in foreign economies.

美国长期收益率上升导致国际投资者重新平衡其投资组合，从外国资产转向美国资产，从而收紧外国金融状况并降低外国经济体的GDP和通胀。

3 The fact that the bulk of international transactions are denominated in dollars gives U.S. monetary policy an especially salient role through the financial channel.

3 大部分国际交易以美元计价，这一事实使得美国货币政策通过金融渠道发挥着尤为突出的作用。

The third channel is the exchange rate channel.

第三个渠道是汇率渠道。

A surprise increase in U.S. interest rates relative to foreign rates usually leads to dollar appreciation.

美国利率相对于外国利率的意外上升通常会导致美元升值。

This currency movement lowers the prices of foreign goods and services relative to those of the U.S., thereby restraining U.S. GDP and strengthening foreign GDP.

这种货币变动降低了外国商品和服务相对于美国的价格，从而抑制了美国的国内生产总值并加强了国外的国内生产总值。

The weaker currency and the resulting higher activity abroad tend to push up foreign inflation.

货币疲软和由此导致的海外活动增加往往会推高外国通胀。

But for economies that rely heavily on dollar-denominated debt and have less well-anchored inflation expectations, exchange rate depreciation can increase balance sheet mismatches and increase risk premia, with adverse consequences for GDP.

但对于严重依赖美元计价债务且通胀预期不太明确的经济体来说，汇率贬值可能会加剧资产负债表错配并增加风险溢价，从而对GDP产生不利影响。

So in the end, while currency depreciation unambiguously raises inflation, its effect on GDP can be ambiguous for some countries.

因此，最终，虽然货币贬值无疑会加剧通货膨胀，但对于一些国家来说，其对 GDP 的影响可能并不明确。

All told, the relative strength of the three channels determines the overall sign and magnitude of the foreign effects of domestic monetary policy tightening.

总而言之，三个渠道的相对强弱决定了国内货币政策紧缩的对外影响的总体迹象和幅度。

However, quantifying spillovers is challenging, as the magnitudes (and even the signs) through the different channels depend on a multitude of structural features of the global economy.

然而，量化溢出效应具有挑战性，因为不同渠道的溢出效应程度（甚至迹象）取决于全球经济的多种结构特征。

Moreover, the size of spillover effects also depends on the drivers of the monetary policy tightening.

此外，溢出效应的大小还取决于货币政策紧缩的驱动因素。

For instance, when the tightening occurs in the context of high growth, the positive spillovers of that growth can partially offset the adverse spillovers from the tightening of financial conditions.

例如，当紧缩政策发生在高增长背景下时，增长的积极溢出效应可以部分抵消金融状况紧缩带来的不利溢出效应。

The importance of the context in which monetary policy is changing is increasingly being emphasized in the literature, such as the paper to be presented in session 4 of this conference.

文献中越来越多地强调货币政策变化背景的重要性，例如本次会议第四场会议上提出的论文。

The staff at the Federal Reserve also have looked at these differences using both event-study and model-based approaches.

美联储的工作人员还使用事件研究和基于模型的方法来研究这些差异。

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4

An additional concern, very relevant to the current situation, is what happens when monetary policy is being tightened simultaneously across a wide set of economies.

另一个与当前形势密切相关的担忧是，当多个经济体同时收紧货币政策时会发生什么。

When this concurrent tightening happens, cross-border financial spillovers could amplify the effects of our respective tightening.

当同时发生这种紧缩政策时，跨境金融溢出效应可能会放大我们各自紧缩政策的影响。

5 Of course, when others are also tightening, each respective central bank may need to do a bit less to achieve the same outcomes because of these spillover effects.

5 当然，当其他国家也实行紧缩政策时，由于这些溢出效应，各个央行可能需要采取更少的措施才能达到相同的结果。

But in a world of uncertainty, it is hard to judge the exact size of these spillovers.

但在一个充满不确定性的世界中，很难判断这些溢出效应的确切规模。

Given the extent of monetary tightening globally over the past two years, it is striking that emerging market economies have fared relatively well compared with what might have been expected.

考虑到过去两年全球货币紧缩的程度，新兴市场经济体的表现与预期相比相对较好，这一点令人震惊。

A number of factors may be at play.

可能有许多因素在起作用。

Several emerging market central banks undertook preemptive rate hikes that helped limit capital outflows, perhaps avoiding worse outcomes.

一些新兴市场央行采取了先发制人的加息措施，有助于限制资本外流，或许可以避免更糟糕的结果。

Effective communication by advanced-economy central banks may also have prevented greater financial market volatility.

发达经济体央行的有效沟通也可能阻止了金融市场更大的波动。

In addition, in these recent stress episodes, commodity prices were rising rather than falling, which benefited some vulnerable emerging market economies that are commodity exporters.

此外，在最近的压力事件中，大宗商品价格不降反升，这使一些脆弱的新兴市场经济体（即大宗商品出口国）受益。

Of course, many other (commodity-importing) economies did not have such an advantage.

当然，许多其他（大宗商品进口）经济体并不具备这样的优势。

And some emerging market and developing economies, especially those with high dollar-denominated debt, have struggled amid high commodity prices and food security issues as well as the resulting global rise in interest rates following the inflationary shocks from Russia's war against Ukraine.

一些新兴市场和发展中经济体，特别是那些以美元计价债务较高的经济体，在大宗商品价格高企、粮食安全问题以及俄罗斯对乌克兰战争引发的通胀冲击导致全球利率上升的情况下陷入困境。

In sum, U.S. monetary policy actions can produce spillovers abroad and create tradeoffs for foreign monetary policy.

总而言之，美国的货币政策行动可以产生海外溢出效应，并为外国货币政策带来权衡。

Spillovers from foreign economies can be sizable for the U.S. as well, especially in the current environment, in which many central banks have tightened policy rapidly to fight inflation.

来自外国经济体的溢出效应对美国来说也可能相当大，特别是在当前许多央行迅速收紧政策以对抗通胀的环境下。

In a world of spillovers and global linkages, all of us have our unique responsibilities.

在一个充满溢出效应和全球联系的世界中，我们所有人都有自己独特的责任。

At the Federal Reserve, we are responsible for getting U.S. inflation down to our target.

在美联储，我们有责任将美国通胀降至我们的目标。

And in doing so, we are aware that we are affected by and have effects on the world around us.

在这样做的过程中，我们意识到我们受到周围世界的影响并对其产生影响。

Conferences like this one help to explore and understand our common interests and common connections and to spark ideas for addressing the challenges that confront all of us.

像这样的会议有助于探索和理解我们的共同利益和共同联系，并激发解决我们所有人面临的挑战的想法。

References Ahmed, Shaghil, Ozge Akinci, and Albert Queralto (2021).

参考文献 Ahmed、Shaghil、Ozge Akinci 和 Albert Queralto (2021)。

" U.S. Monetary Policy Spillovers to Emerging Markets: Both Shocks and Vulnerabilities Matter ," International Finance Discussion Papers 1321.

“美国货币政策对新兴市场的溢出效应：冲击和脆弱性都很重要”，国际金融讨论论文 1321。

Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, July.

华盛顿：联邦储备系统理事会，七月。

Ammer, John, Michiel De Pooter, Christopher Erceg, and Steven Kamin (2016).

约翰·阿默、米契尔·德·普特、克里斯托弗·埃尔塞格和史蒂文·卡明 (2016)。

" International Spillovers of Monetary Policy ," IFDP Notes.

“货币政策的国际溢出效应”，IFDP 指出。

Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 8.

华盛顿：美联储理事会，2 月 8 日。

Caldara, Dario, Francesco Ferrante, Matteo Iacoviello, Andrea Prestipino, and Albert Queralto (2023).

卡尔达拉、达里奥、弗朗西斯科·费兰特、马泰奥·雅科维耶洛、安德里亚·普雷斯蒂皮诺和阿尔伯特·奎拉尔托 (2023)。

"The International Spillovers of Synchronous Monetary Tightening," paper presented at the 100th Carnegie-Rochester-NYU Conference on Public Policy, held at the University of Rochester, Rochester, N.Y., April 29.

“同步货币紧缩的国际溢出效应”，4 月 29 日在纽约州罗切斯特市罗切斯特大学举行的第 100 届卡内基-罗切斯特-纽约大学公共政策会议上发表的论文。

Curcuru, Stephanie E., Michiel De Pooter, and George Eckerd (2018).

Curcuru、Stephanie E.、Michiel De Pooter 和 George Eckerd (2018)。

" Measuring Monetary Policy Spillovers between U.S. and German Bond Yields ," International Finance Discussion Papers 1226.

“衡量美国和德国债券收益率之间的货币政策溢出”，国际金融讨论论文 1226。

Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, April.

华盛顿：联邦储备系统理事会，四月。

Hoek, Jasper, Steve Kamin, and Emre Yoldas (2022).

贾斯珀·霍克、史蒂夫·卡明和埃姆雷·约达斯 (2022)。

"Are Higher U.S. Interest Rates Always Bad News for Emerging Markets?" Journal of International Economics, vol. 137 (July), 103585.

“美国加息对于新兴市场来说总是坏消息吗？”国际经济学杂志，卷。 137（七月），103585。

Iacoviello, Matteo, and Gaston Navarro (2019).

雅科维耶洛、马泰奥和加斯顿·纳瓦罗 (2019)。

"Foreign Effects of Higher U.S. Interest Rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 95 (July), pp.

“美国利率上升的外国影响”，《国际货币与金融杂志》，卷。 95（七月），第 95 页。

232–50.

232–50。

Rey, Hélène (2013).

雷伊·海伦 (2013)。

" Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence (PDF) ," paper presented at "Global Dimensions of Unconventional Monetary Policy," a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, held in Jackson Hole, Wyo., August 23.

“困境而非三难困境：全球金融周期和货币政策独立性 (PDF)”，论文发表在“非常规货币政策的全球维度”研讨会上，该研讨会由堪萨斯城联邦储备银行主办，于 8 月 23 日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行。

1.

1.

The views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.

这里表达的观点是我自己的观点，不一定是联邦公开市场委员会同事的观点。

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2.

2.

See Ammer and others (2016) for an extended discussion and quantification of these channels.

有关这些通道的扩展讨论和量化，请参阅 Ammer 等人 (2016)。

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3.

3.

The financial channel has been documented in recent academic literature, including Rey (2013) and Iacoviello and Navarro (2019).

最近的学术文献中已经记录了金融渠道，包括 Rey (2013) 以及 Iacoviello 和 Navarro (2019)。

Estimates of financial spillovers can be found in Curcuru, De Pooter, and Eckerd (2018).

对金融溢出效应的估计可参见 Curcuru、De Pooter 和 Eckerd（2018 年）。

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4.

4.

See, for example, Hoek, Kamin, and Yoldas (2022) and Ahmed, Akinci, and Queralto (2021).

例如，参见 Hoek、Kamin 和 Yoldas (2022) 以及 Ahmed、Akinci 和 Queralto (2021)。

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