Financial Stability: Resilience, Challenges, and Global Connections

Thank you for the invitation to speak at the Central Bank of Ireland.

感谢您邀请在爱尔兰中央银行发表演讲。

I am happy to be with you today to discuss financial stability.

我很高兴今天与大家一起讨论金融稳定。

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My own work as an academic has frequently reinforced the importance of financial stability in the United States and abroad.

我自己作为一名学者的工作经常强调美国和国外金融稳定的重要性。

Early in my career, I examined the impact of underdevelopment in the Russian banking system on growth in post-Soviet Russia and the instability that can occur in a poorly regulated financial system.

在我职业生涯的早期，我研究了俄罗斯银行体系不发达对后苏联时期俄罗斯经济增长的影响，以及监管不力的金融体系可能出现的不稳定。

Years later, as an economist on the Council of Economic Advisers, I saw how weaknesses in the financial system contributed to instability in the euro area.

多年后，作为经济顾问委员会的经济学家，我看到了金融体系的弱点如何导致欧元区的不稳定。

These formative experiences shaped my view that the Federal Reserve's work on financial stability is critical to the well-being of households, businesses, and the broader economy.

这些形成性的经历塑造了我的观点：美联储在金融稳定方面的工作对于家庭、企业和更广泛的经济的福祉至关重要。

This is one reason I particularly value the opportunity to serve on the Board's Committee on Financial Stability.

这是我特别重视在董事会金融稳定委员会任职的机会的原因之一。

I will focus my remarks on my assessment of financial stability risks, based on the Federal Reserve's framework for monitoring vulnerabilities in the financial system.

我将根据美联储监测金融体系脆弱性的框架，重点讨论我对金融稳定风险的评估。

In my view, our financial system is substantially more resilient than it was in the mid-2000s, reflecting progress by regulators and the private sector in boosting resilience.

在我看来，我们的金融体系比 2000 年代中期更具弹性，这反映出监管机构和私营部门在增强弹性方面取得的进展。

That said, we cannot be complacent, and I see some important risks.

尽管如此，我们不能自满，我看到了一些重要的风险。

Achieving the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices depends on a stable financial system.

实现美联储充分就业和稳定物价的双重使命取决于稳定的金融体系。

2 We all saw how the Global Financial Crisis triggered the Great Recession and brought misery to countless millions who lost their jobs, homes, or investments.

2 我们都看到全球金融危机如何引发大衰退，并给无数失去工作、住房或投资的人带来痛苦。

A stable financial system provides households, communities, and businesses with the financing they need to invest, grow, and participate in a well-functioning economy—even when hit by adverse events or "shocks." Consistent with this view of financial stability, our framework for how we think about this goal—as laid out in our Financial Stability Report (FSR), which was just released in October—distinguishes between shocks to, and vulnerabilities of, the financial system.

稳定的金融体系为家庭、社区和企业提供投资、发展和参与运转良好的经济所需的融资——即使受到不利事件或“冲击”的打击。与这种金融稳定观点相一致，我们如何看待这一目标的框架（如 10 月份刚刚发布的金融稳定报告 (FSR) 中所述）区分了金融体系的冲击和脆弱性。

3 Importantly, and as we economists know, we cannot predict exogenous shocks, which are, by definition, the surprise events that will hit the financial system and economy.

3 重要的是，正如我们经济学家所知，我们无法预测外生冲击，根据定义，外生冲击是指将冲击金融体系和经济的意外事件。

By contrast, vulnerabilities—the aspects of the financial system that would exacerbate stress—tend to build up over time and can be identified, assessed, and monitored.

相比之下，脆弱性——金融体系中会加剧压力的方面——往往会随着时间的推移而积累，并且可以被识别、评估和监控。

In the example of the Global Financial Crisis, although it was widely recognized that housing valuations were high, the magnitude of the ensuing price drop was unexpected, or a shock.

以全球金融危机为例，尽管人们普遍认为住房估值很高，但随之而来的价格下跌幅度却出乎意料，或者说令人震惊。

That shock was amplified by vulnerabilities that had built up within the financial system over time, including weak bank capital, excessive household debt, lax lending standards, and fragile short-term wholesale funding.

随着时间的推移，金融体系内部积累的脆弱性加剧了这种冲击，这些脆弱性包括银行资本薄弱、家庭债务过高、贷款标准宽松以及脆弱的短期批发融资。

One hard-learned lesson of the crisis is that the Fed and other regulators must watch closely for vulnerabilities that may build up within the financial system.

这场危机的一个惨痛教训是，美联储和其他监管机构必须密切关注金融体系内可能积累的脆弱性。

Based on this experience, other historical episodes, and academic research, we focus, in the Board's FSR and other work, on assessing vulnerabilities across four broad categories related to asset valuations, borrowing by businesses and households, financial-sector leverage, and funding risks.

根据这一经验、其他历史事件和学术研究，我们在董事会的 FSR 和其他工作中重点评估与资产估值、企业和家庭借贷、金融部门杠杆和融资风险相关的四大类的脆弱性。

We also consider, through contacts with market participants and experts, near-term risks that, if they were to come to pass, could interact with these vulnerabilities.

通过与市场参与者和专家的接触，我们还考虑了近期风险，如果这些风险发生，可能会与这些漏洞相互作用。

Asset Valuations One key set of vulnerabilities stems from valuation pressures.

资产估值 一组关键的脆弱性源于估值压力。

The willingness of investors to take on risks is closely related to the economic and financial cycle.

投资者承担风险的意愿与经济金融周期密切相关。

When their risk appetite drives prices higher relative to economic fundamentals, there may be a greater risk of outsized drops in prices that can be destabilizing.

当他们的风险偏好推动价格相对于经济基本面走高时，价格大幅下跌的风险可能会更大，从而破坏稳定。

4 The Fed looks at a broad range of asset markets, including equities, Treasury securities, corporate bonds, loans, and real estate.

4 美联储关注广泛的资产市场，包括股票、国债、公司债券、贷款和房地产。

This table from our FSR shows the sizes of the asset markets discussed in this section as of Q2, the most recent data available.

我们的 FSR 表格显示了本节中讨论的截至第二季度的资产市场规模，这是最新的可用数据。

The largest asset markets are those for residential real estate, equities, Treasury securities, and commercial real estate (CRE).

最大的资产市场是住宅房地产、股票、国债和商业房地产（CRE）。

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This year, asset valuations have generally risen notably above their historical levels.

今年，资产估值普遍显着高于历史水平。

In particular, prices of residential and commercial properties remain above levels historically associated with fundamentals.

特别是，住宅和商业地产的价格仍然高于与基本面相关的历史水平。

House prices, relative to rents, are near all-time highs.

相对于租金而言，房价接近历史高点。

Further, prices have started increasing again in recent months after falling for more than a year.

此外，在下跌一年多后，近几个月价格再次开始上涨。

Commercial property prices also remain high relative to rental income.

相对于租金收入，商业地产价格也仍然很高。

I am watching closely the extent to which post-pandemic supply and demand patterns normalize.

我正在密切关注大流行后供需模式正常化的程度。

Demand in the office sector has remained weak, particularly in central business districts and coastal cities, with vacancy rates increasing further and rent growth declining.

写字楼需求依然疲软，特别是在中央商务区和沿海城市，空置率进一步上升，租金增幅下降。

Finally, average delinquency rates for commercial mortgage-backed securities have moved up recently, as office and retail loan performance has deteriorated.

最后，随着办公楼和零售贷款表现恶化，商业抵押贷款支持证券的平均拖欠率最近有所上升。

If delinquency rates generate selling pressure or increase notably further and result in forced sales of properties, then CRE prices could decline sharply.

如果拖欠率产生销售压力或进一步显着上升并导致房产被迫出售，那么商业房地产价格可能会大幅下跌。

Another notable market development has been the significant increase in longer-term bond yields since June.

另一个值得注意的市场发展是自六月以来长期债券收益率大幅上升。

Decompositions between changes in expected rates and term premiums depend on the specific models and assumptions used, but I would say that an expectation of higher near-term policy rates does not appear to be causing the increase in longer-term rates.

预期利率和期限溢价变化之间的分解取决于所使用的具体模型和假设，但我想说，对近期政策利率上升的预期似乎不会导致长期利率上升。

Business and Household Borrowings Valuation pressures are especially concerning if they are associated with excessive borrowing.

企业和家庭借贷如果估值压力与过度借贷有关，则尤其令人担忧。

If households or businesses borrow too much, they may be unable to service debt or could find themselves underwater if assets decline in value.

如果家庭或企业借贷过多，他们可能无法偿还债务，或者如果资产贬值，他们可能会发现自己陷入困境。

Such stresses can propagate through the financial system, causing funding shortages that curtail credit and hamper economic activity.

这种压力可能会通过金融体系传播，导致资金短缺，从而限制信贷并阻碍经济活动。

Of course, it's very difficult to tell in real time whether households and businesses are, in fact, borrowing "too much," so we rely on a range of benchmarks.

当然，实时判断家庭和企业是否借贷“过多”是非常困难的，因此我们依赖一系列基准。

Currently, business debt is at historically high levels relative to such benchmarks as gross domestic product (GDP) or business assets, although those ratios are significantly lower than the record highs reached at the onset of the pandemic.

目前，相对于国内生产总值（GDP）或企业资产等基准，企业债务处于历史高位，尽管这些比率远低于大流行爆发时创下的历史新高。

However, measures of the ability of firms to service their debt remain strong overall, supported by resilient corporate profits and limited effects to date from higher interest rates.

然而，在企业利润弹性和迄今为止利率上升的影响有限的支撑下，衡量企业偿债能力的指标总体仍然强劲。

The pass-through of higher interest rates into debt-servicing costs appears to be muted by the large share of long-term, fixed-rate liabilities.

较大比例的长期固定利率负债似乎削弱了利率上升对偿债成本的影响。

However, I note that for risky borrowers or those with high-yield or unrated debt, the ability to service their debt burdens has started to show signs of weakness, as would be expected in a rising interest rate environment, and could become further strained if corporate earnings fall due to a sharper-than-expected slowdown in economic activity.

然而，我注意到，对于高风险借款人或拥有高收益或未评级债务的借款人来说，偿还债务负担的能力已开始显示出疲软的迹象，正如在利率上升的环境下所预期的那样，如果企业盈利因经济活动放缓幅度超出预期而下降，则可能会变得更加紧张。

The household sector, taken as a whole, looks quite resilient.

整体来看，家庭部门看起来相当有弹性。

Household debt, including home mortgages, auto and student loans, and credit cards, remains at modest levels relative to GDP, and most of that debt is owed by households with strong credit histories or considerable home equity.

家庭债务，包括住房抵押贷款、汽车贷款、学生贷款以及信用卡，相对于 GDP 仍处于适度水平，而且大部分债务是由信用记录良好或房屋净值相当高的家庭所欠。

Of course, we are seeing emerging signs of stress for households with lower credit scores, and individual borrowers may struggle with debt burdens in the face of economic hardships.

当然，我们看到信用评分较低的家庭面临压力的迹象正在显现，而个人借款人在面临经济困难时可能会面临债务负担。

Financial-Sector Leverage Now to financial-sector leverage.

金融部门杠杆 现在讨论金融部门杠杆。

As I mentioned earlier, we pay careful attention to our financial system's ability to support the activities of businesses and households.

正如我之前提到的，我们非常关注金融体系支持企业和家庭活动的能力。

When financial institutions are overly indebted, adverse shocks can cause them to retrench more than they otherwise would, resulting in greater declines in economic activity.

当金融机构过度负债时，不利的冲击可能会导致它们比原本更紧缩，从而导致经济活动进一步下滑。

In extreme circumstances, such effects can lead to credit crunches and widespread economic dislocations.

在极端情况下，这种影响可能导致信贷紧缩和广泛的经济混乱。

Similarly, some institutions may be forced to rapidly deleverage, stressing markets and forcing other institutions to also pull back.

同样，一些机构可能被迫迅速去杠杆化，给市场带来压力，并迫使其他机构也退出。

The United States has a large and vibrant financial system, so it is important to assess leverage across the broad array of nonbanks and banks of all sizes that provide credit to our economy.

美国拥有庞大且充满活力的金融体系，因此评估为我们的经济提供信贷的各种规模的非银行机构和银行的杠杆率非常重要。

Starting with banks: The banking sector remains sound and resilient overall.

从银行开始：银行业总体保持稳健和弹性。

Most banks continue to report solid capital levels well above regulatory requirements.

大多数银行的资本水平继续远高于监管要求。

The rise in interest rates over the past two years has contributed to robust bank profitability, as banks earned higher interest income on floating-rate loans while interest expense on many deposits remained well below market rates.

过去两年的利率上升促进了银行强劲的盈利能力，因为银行通过浮动利率贷款获得了更高的利息收入，而许多存款的利息支出仍然远低于市场利率。

At the same time, higher long-term interest rates also substantially affected the fair value of banks' holdings of fixed-rate assets.

与此同时，长期利率上升也严重影响了银行持有的固定利率资产的公允价值。

As we saw earlier this year, fair value losses on bank balance sheets, when combined with poor liquidity and interest rate risk management, can leave banks exposed to additional risk.

正如我们今年早些时候所看到的，银行资产负债表上的公允价值损失，再加上流动性和利率风险管理不佳，可能会使银行面临额外的风险。

While acute stresses have abated, I continue to monitor this situation closely.

虽然急性压力已经减轻，但我仍会继续密切关注这一情况。

Some nonbanks can be quite leveraged.

一些非银行机构的杠杆率可能很高。

For example, available data suggest that hedge fund leverage remains elevated, especially for the largest hedge funds.

例如，现有数据表明对冲基金杠杆率仍然很高，尤其是对于最大的对冲基金而言。

It is important to better understand how their leveraged activities could impact the functioning of underlying markets.

更好地了解他们的杠杆活动如何影响基础市场的运作非常重要。

Funding Risks Looking at funding, many financial institutions raise funds from the public with a commitment to return their money on short notice.

资金风险 在资金方面，许多金融机构向公众筹集资金，并承诺在短时间内归还资金。

But those institutions then invest much of those funds in assets that are hard to sell quickly or have a long maturity.

但这些机构随后将大部分资金投资于难以快速出售或期限较长的资产。

This liquidity and maturity transformation can create strains across markets or institutions, particularly in the absence of a lender of last resort such as the Fed's discount window for commercial banks.

这种流动性和期限的转变可能会给整个市场或机构带来压力，特别是在缺乏美联储对商业银行贴现窗口等最后贷款人的情况下。

In the banking industry, the deposit volatility that we saw earlier this year has abated.

在银行业，我们今年早些时候看到的存款波动已经减弱。

That said, some banks have had to turn to higher-cost funding sources to make up for lost deposits and face reduced market values for investment securities.

尽管如此，一些银行不得不转向成本较高的融资来源来弥补存款损失，并面临投资证券市场价值下降的局面。

Outside of banking, we also monitor a wide range of nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) such as money market funds, open-end funds, insurers, central counterparties, and digital assets.

除银行业外，我们还监控各种非银行金融机构 (NBFI)，例如货币市场基金、开放式基金、保险公司、中央对手方和数字资产。

Many of their activities give rise to a liquidity mismatch that could amplify market stress.

他们的许多活动会导致流动性错配，从而可能加剧市场压力。

They have daily or frequent redemption possibilities on the liability side, while holding less-liquid assets.

他们在负债方面有每日或频繁赎回的可能性，同时持有流动性较低的资产。

I think the Securities and Exchange Commission's recent reform on money market funds and proposal for open-end funds are encouraging steps toward mitigating funding risks arising from nonbanks.

我认为，美国证券交易委员会最近对货币市场基金的改革和开放式基金的提议是缓解非银行融资风险的令人鼓舞的举措。

Salient Near-Term Risks Let me illustrate how these vulnerabilities factor into my views on the resilience of the financial system.

显着的近期风险 让我说明一下这些脆弱性如何影响我对金融体系弹性的看法。

I will walk through how potential near-term risks could interact with current conditions in the United States.

我将介绍潜在的近期风险如何与美国当前的状况相互作用。

I will cover both domestic and international risks in a way that is closely aligned with the discussion in the FSR.

我将以与 FSR 中的讨论紧密结合的方式讨论国内和国际风险。

6 In recent outreach, as summarized in this figure from the FSR, contacts were particularly focused on the persistent inflationary pressures leading to further monetary tightening, the potential for significant losses on CRE and residential real estate, the reemergence of banking-sector stress, and market liquidity strains and volatility.

6 正如 FSR 中的该图所总结的，在最近的外展活动中，接触特别关注导致进一步货币紧缩的持续通胀压力、商业地产和住宅房地产可能遭受重大损失、银行业压力重新出现以及市场流动性紧张和波动。

As I said earlier, the banking sector has stabilized since the period of acute stress earlier this year, and the system as a whole has ample capital and liquidity to withstand shocks.

正如我刚才所说，银行业自今年早些时候的严重压力期以来已趋于稳定，整个系统拥有充足的资本和流动性来抵御冲击。

I continue to monitor the system for signs of renewed stresses.

我继续监控系统是否有新的压力迹象。

I also support seeking public comment on federal banking agencies' Basel III endgame proposal on bank capital requirements.

我还支持就联邦银行机构巴塞尔协议 III 关于银行资本要求的最终提案征求公众意见。

In addition, NBFIs have become an integral part of the financial system and are increasingly interconnected with the banking sector.

此外，非银行金融机构已成为金融体系不可或缺的一部分，并与银行业的联系日益紧密。

It is crucial for relevant authorities to implement stronger oversight and appropriate prudential requirements for nonbanks.

有关当局对非银行机构实施更强有力的监管和适当的审慎要求至关重要。

This is especially important amid concerns that proposed higher capital requirements for large banks could cause some bank activities to migrate to the more lightly regulated NBFIs.

鉴于人们担心对大型银行提出的更高资本要求可能会导致一些银行活动转向监管较宽松的非银行金融机构，这一点尤其重要。

It would be the most effective and balanced way to enhance the stability of the entire financial system.

这将是增强整个金融体系稳定性的最有效、最平衡的方式。

Internationally, inflationary pressures persist in advanced foreign economies and could pose risks to the global financial system.

国际上，发达外国经济体持续存在通胀压力，可能对全球金融体系构成风险。

Energy prices have increased notably in recent months, potentially forcing businesses to pass on renewed cost pressures to customers.

近几个月来，能源价格显着上涨，可能迫使企业将新的成本压力转嫁给客户。

An unexpected increase in policy rates abroad could lead to heightened volatility in financial markets, strains in market liquidity, and an adjustment in asset prices.

国外政策利率的意外上升可能导致金融市场波动加剧、市场流动性紧张以及资产价格调整。

Higher interest rates, particularly if they persisted, could be a binding constraint on the debt-servicing capacity of foreign households, businesses, and governments.

利率上升，特别是如果利率持续上升，可能会对外国家庭、企业和政府的偿债能力产生约束力。

Collectively, these factors could lead to pronounced losses among global financial intermediaries and a consequent reduction in the credit supply.

总的来说，这些因素可能会导致全球金融中介机构遭受严重损失，从而导致信贷供应减少。

In China, a further slowdown in economic growth could worsen financial stresses.

在中国，经济增长进一步放缓可能会加剧金融压力。

Many Chinese firms, especially in the property sector, are struggling to service very high debt burdens.

许多中国企业，尤其是房地产行业的企业，正在努力偿还高昂的债务负担。

Local governments are also facing increasing fiscal strains.

地方政府也面临着日益增加的财政压力。

Stresses originating in China could spill over to other emerging market economies (EMEs), particularly those highly dependent on trade with China or on credit provided by Chinese entities.

来自中国的压力可能会蔓延到其他新兴市场经济体（EME），特别是那些高度依赖对华贸易或中国实体提供信贷的经济体。

The spillovers could trigger significant capital outflows from EMEs, which may already be more susceptible to external shocks given generally heightened debt levels.

溢出效应可能引发新兴市场经济体的大量资本外流，鉴于债务水平普遍升高，新兴市场经济体可能已经更容易受到外部冲击的影响。

Given the size of its economy and financial system, financial stress in China could be propagated to global markets more broadly through disruptions to economic activity, deterioration of risk sentiment, and a sharp appreciation of the dollar.

鉴于其经济和金融体系的规模，中国的金融压力可能会通过经济活动中断、风险情绪恶化和美元大幅升值而更广泛地传播到全球市场。

Last but not least, a worsening of global geopolitical tensions, including those involving Russia, the Middle East, and China, could lead to broad negative spillovers to global markets.

最后但并非最不重要的一点是，全球地缘政治紧张局势的恶化，包括涉及俄罗斯、中东和中国的紧张局势，可能会给全球市场带来广泛的负面溢出效应。

Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine continues to weigh on many economies in a variety of ways, including sustained disruptions to regional trade in food, energy, and other commodities.

俄罗斯对乌克兰持续的战争继续以各种方式给许多经济体带来压力，包括对食品、能源和其他商品的区域贸易的持续干扰。

The conflict in the Middle East could generate further risks to energy and financial markets, as well as a worsening of global humanitarian and migration challenges.

中东冲突可能会给能源和金融市场带来进一步的风险，并加剧全球人道主义和移民挑战。

More broadly, escalation of geopolitical tensions could lead to lower economic activity and increased fragmentation of global trade flows and financial intermediation, raising financing and production costs and contributing to more sustained supply chain challenges and inflationary pressures.

更广泛地说，地缘政治紧张局势升级可能导致经济活动减少、全球贸易流动和金融中介更加分散，从而提高融资和生产成本，并导致供应链挑战和通胀压力更加持续。

The global financial system could be affected by a pullback from risk-taking, declines in asset prices, and losses for exposed businesses and investors.

全球金融体系可能会受到风险承担能力下降、资产价格下跌以及面临风险的企业和投资者损失的影响。

I will conclude by saying that we must remain vigilant to potential shocks that could exacerbate vulnerabilities in the global financial system.

最后我想说，我们必须对可能加剧全球金融体系脆弱性的潜在冲击保持警惕。

Thank you for inviting me to speak here.

感谢您邀请我在这里发言。

I look forward to participating on the panel.

我期待着参加该小组。

1.

1.

The views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.

这里表达的观点是我自己的观点，不一定是联邦公开市场委员会同事的观点。

These remarks are largely drawn from my recent speech at Duke University.

这些言论大部分取自我最近在杜克大学的演讲。

See Lisa D.

参见丽莎 D.

Cook (2023), " Financial Stability: Resilience and Challenges ," speech delivered at Duke University, Durham, N.C., November 6.

Cook (2023)，“金融稳定：弹性和挑战”，11 月 6 日在北卡罗来纳州达勒姆杜克大学发表的演讲。

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2.

2.

See the Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, which is available on the Board's website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomc_longerrungoals.pdf .

请参阅《关于长期目标和货币政策战略的声明》，该声明可在理事会网站 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomc_longerrungoals.pdf 上获取。

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3.

3.

See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2023), Financial Stability Report (PDF) (Washington: Board of Governors, October).

请参阅美联储理事会 (2023)，金融稳定报告 (PDF)（华盛顿：理事会，10 月）。

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4.

4.

See the box "Vulnerabilities from Asset Valuations, Risk Appetite, and Low Interest Rates" in Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2021), Financial Stability Report (PDF) (Washington: Board of Governors, May), pp.

请参阅《美国联邦储备系统理事会（2021 年）》《金融稳定报告》(PDF)（华盛顿：理事会，5 月）中的“资产估值、风险偏好和低利率带来的脆弱性”框，第 14 页。

15–18.

15-18。

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5.

5.

See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2023), Financial Stability Report (PDF) (Washington: Board of Governors, October), pp.

请参阅美国联邦储备系统理事会 (2023)，金融稳定报告 (PDF)（华盛顿：理事会，10 月），第 173 页。

5–6.

5-6。

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6.

6.

Based in part on the outreach survey the Federal Reserve Bank of New York conducts that informs the discussion in the FSR.

部分基于纽约联邦储备银行进行的外展调查，该调查为 FSR 的讨论提供了信息。

See section 5 and the box "Survey of Salient Risks to Financial Stability" in Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2023), Financial Stability Report (PDF) (Washington: Board of Governors, October), pp.

请参阅《美国联邦储备系统理事会 (2023)》《金融稳定报告》(PDF)（华盛顿：理事会，10 月）第 5 节和“金融稳定显着风险调查”框，第 127 页。

47–48.

47-48。

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