Entrepreneurs, Innovation, and Participation
At the 2024 Women for Women Summit, Charleston, South Carolina
在南卡罗来纳州查尔斯顿举行的 2024 年女性女性峰会上
Thank you for the kind introduction, Jennet.
谢谢你的热情介绍，珍妮特。
1 Let me start by saying my thoughts are with all the people in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia who have felt the force of Helene's and Milton's impact.
1 首先我要说的是，我的心与佛罗里达州、佐治亚州、北卡罗来纳州、南卡罗来纳州、田纳西州和弗吉尼亚州所有感受到海伦和米尔顿影响力的人们同在。
I am saddened by the tragic loss of life and widespread disruption in this region.
我对该地区悲惨的生命损失和广泛的破坏感到悲痛。
The Federal Reserve Board and other federal and state financial regulatory agencies are working with banks and credit unions in the affected area.
美联储以及其他联邦和州金融监管机构正在与受影响地区的银行和信用合作社合作。
As we normally do in these unfortunate situations, we are encouraging institutions operating in the affected areas to meet the needs of their communities.
正如我们在这些不幸情况下通常所做的那样，我们鼓励在受影响地区开展业务的机构满足其社区的需求。
2
2
It is an honor to stand before you and speak to this group of audacious, innovative women.
很荣幸能够站在你们面前与这群大胆、创新的女性交谈。
I am also very happy to be back in Charleston.
我也很高兴回到查尔斯顿。
I grew up in Milledgeville, Georgia, just about 250 miles down the road.
我在佐治亚州米利奇维尔长大，距此仅 250 英里。
Some of my fondest childhood memories of traveling in the South, especially as a Girl Scout, include South Carolina.
我在南方旅行时最美好的一些童年记忆，尤其是作为女童子军，包括南卡罗来纳州。
Today I would like to talk with you about the important role startups, new businesses, and entrepreneurship play in our economy from the perspective of a Federal Reserve policymaker.
今天，我想从美联储政策制定者的角度与大家讨论初创企业、新企业和创业精神在我们经济中发挥的重要作用。
I also want to share a bit of my story.
我也想分享一些我的故事。
Just like many of you—including those who have started a business or those who dream of doing that someday—I have faced and overcome hurdles along a winding path.
就像你们中的许多人一样——包括那些已经创业的人或那些梦想有一天这样做的人——我在一条曲折的道路上面临并克服了障碍。
My Story I was born and raised in Milledgeville, where my mother, Professor Mary Murray Cook, was a faculty member in the Nursing Department of Georgia College and State University.
我的故事 我在米利奇维尔出生和长大，我的母亲玛丽·默里·库克教授是那里的佐治亚学院和州立大学护理系的一名教员。
She was the first tenured African American faculty member at that university.
她是该大学第一位终身任职的非裔美国教员。
My father, Rev.
我的父亲，牧师。
Payton B.
佩顿 B.
Cook, was a chaplain and then in senior leadership at the hospital there.
库克曾是一名牧师，后来担任该医院的高级领导职务。
My family lived through the events that brought Milledgeville out of a deeply segregated South.
我的家人经历了将米利奇维尔从严重种族隔离的南方带出来的事件。
My sisters and I were among the first African American students to desegregate the schools we attended.
我和我的姐妹是第一批废除学校种族隔离的非裔美国学生。
I drew strength from the example set by my family, others in the Civil Rights Movement, and the village that raised me and from their conviction in the hope and promise of a world that could and would continually improve.
我从我的家人、民权运动中的其他人以及养育我的村庄树立的榜样中汲取力量，并从他们对一个能够而且将会不断改善的世界的希望和承诺的信念中汲取力量。
While I had an interest in economics even before I entered high school, that was not the initial field of study I pursued.
虽然我在进入高中之前就对经济学感兴趣，但这并不是我最初追求的学习领域。
I entered Spelman College in Atlanta as a physics and philosophy major.
我进入亚特兰大斯佩尔曼学院，主修物理和哲学。
After graduation, I had the honor of studying at the University of Oxford as a Marshall Scholar.
毕业后，我有幸以马歇尔学者的身份在牛津大学学习。
After Oxford, I continued my education at the University of Dakar in Senegal in West Africa.
从牛津大学毕业后，我在西非塞内加尔的达喀尔大学继续学业。
However, at the end of my year in Africa, it was the chance to climb Mount Kilimanjaro in Tanzania in East Africa where I discovered my love of economics.
然而，在非洲的那一年结束时，我有机会攀登东非坦桑尼亚的乞力马扎罗山，在那里我发现了自己对经济学的热爱。
I hiked alongside a British economist, and, by the end of the trek, he convinced me that studying economics would provide me with the tools to address some big and important questions I had pondered for a long time.
我和一位英国经济学家一起徒步旅行，在长途跋涉结束时，他说服我，学习经济学将为我提供解决一些我长期以来思考的重大问题的工具。
I went on to earn my Ph.D. in economics from the University of California, Berkeley .
我继续获得博士学位。加州大学伯克利分校经济学博士。
Entering the economics profession came with its usual challenges, and, for women, a few more challenges existed.
进入经济学行业会带来常见的挑战，对于女性来说，还存在更多挑战。
To this day, women are still underrepresented in economics.
直到今天，女性在经济学领域的代表性仍然不足。
Women earned just 34 percent of bachelor's degrees in economics and 36 percent of Ph.D.'s in economics in 2022, the most recent available data from the U.S. Department of Education.
美国教育部的最新数据显示，到 2022 年，只有 34% 的经济学学士学位和 36% 的经济学博士学位由女性获得。
The share of women earning those degrees rose only modestly from 1999, when women earned about 32 percent of economics bachelor's degrees and 27 percent of Ph.D.'s.
与 1999 年相比，获得这些学位的女性比例仅略有上升，当时女性获得了大约 32% 的经济学学士学位和 27% 的博士学位。
The data stand in sharp contrast to all science and engineering degrees, including in social science fields, where women earned roughly half of degrees granted in 2022.
这些数据与所有科学和工程学位（包括社会科学领域）形成鲜明对比，2022 年，女性获得的学位大约有一半是女性。
3
3
Education was paramount in my family and was construed as a means of realizing the promise of the Civil Rights Movement and continual improvement of our society and economy.
教育在我的家庭中至关重要，被视为实现民权运动承诺和持续改善我们社会和经济的一种手段。
Of course, economics, like physics, is a field where math skills are vitally important.
当然，经济学和物理学一样，数学技能至关重要。
Between my mother, my aunts, and my extended family, I had essentially understood STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics)-related jobs to be women's work.
在我的母亲、阿姨和我的大家庭中，我基本上认为与 STEM（科学、技术、工程和数学）相关的工作是女性的工作。
I was grateful to have these role models in my orbit to give me the confidence to undertake study in a STEM field.
我很感激这些榜样在我的轨道上，让我有信心在 STEM 领域进行学习。
Access and encouragement for girls to pursue study in math and science are a significant concern.
女孩学习数学和科学的机会和鼓励是一个值得关注的问题。
Economist Dania V.
经济学家丹尼亚·V.
Francis's research shows that Black girls are disproportionately under-recommended for Advanced Placement calculus.
弗朗西斯的研究表明，黑人女孩不成比例地不被推荐参加大学先修微积分课程。
4 The course is often a gateway for economics, for STEM classes, and for college preparation, in general.
4 一般来说，该课程通常是经济学、STEM 课程和大学准备的入门课程。
5
5
My mentors and role models encouraged careful study, teaching, and scholarship and helped me block out the voices saying I did not belong at each juncture.
我的导师和榜样鼓励我认真学习、教学和学术，并在每个时刻帮助我屏蔽那些说我不属于这里的声音。
They encouraged my work and have been champions for me.
他们鼓励我的工作并一直是我的支持者。
As a result, I have been committed to serving as a mentor, as well.
因此，我也一直致力于担任导师。
For several years, I was the director of and taught in the American Economic Association's Summer Program, an important training ground for disadvantaged students considering economics careers.
多年来，我一直担任美国经济学会暑期项目的主任并任教，该项目是考虑从事经济学职业的弱势学生的重要培训基地。
Each year, the share of students who are women oscillated between 41 percent and 67 percent, much higher than the enrollment in undergraduate economics courses nationally.
每年，女性学生的比例在 41% 到 67% 之间波动，远高于全国本科经济学课程的入学人数。
6 I told those students—and continue to tell them as they make their way through graduate programs in economics and through the economics profession—"You belong here.
6 我告诉这些学生——并且在他们攻读经济学研究生课程和进入经济学专业时继续告诉他们——“你属于这里。
Your insights are unique, and the profession will benefit from them."
你的见解是独特的，整个行业都会从中受益。”
In my career as an economist, I studied, researched, and taught in roles at universities and worked in the private sector and in government before I was nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate to become a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in 2022.
在我作为一名经济学家的职业生涯中，我在大学学习、研究和教学，并在私营部门和政府工作，之后我被总统提名并经参议院批准，于 2022 年成为美联储系统理事会成员。
I am honored and humbled to serve in this role and proud to be the first African American woman and first woman of color to serve on the Board of Governors.
我很荣幸和谦卑地担任这一职务，并自豪地成为第一位在理事会任职的非裔美国女性和第一位有色人种女性。
As Fed policymakers, we make decisions affecting the entire economy and the well-being of every American by focusing on the dual mandate given to us by Congress: maximum employment and stable prices.
作为美联储的政策制定者，我们通过关注国会赋予我们的双重使命来做出影响整个经济和每个美国人福祉的决策：最大限度的就业和稳定的价格。
Entrepreneurs' Vital Role in the Economy In my years of conducting research and while at the Board, I have met many inventors, innovators, and entrepreneurs who made important contributions to the economy.
企业家在经济中的重要作用 在我多年的研究和在董事会任职期间，我遇到了许多对经济做出了重要贡献的发明家、创新者和企业家。
Many of them happened to be women who were very knowledgeable, creative, and inspiring.
他们中的许多人恰好是知识渊博、富有创造力和鼓舞人心的女性。
So I want to discuss the vital role entrepreneurship and new business creation play in our economy.
因此，我想讨论创业和新企业创造在我们经济中发挥的重要作用。
You might ask what interest I have in this subject, as a monetary policymaker focused closely on the dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices.
你可能会问我对这个主题有什么兴趣，作为货币政策制定者，密切关注最大就业和稳定价格的双重使命。
Well, this topic has interested me for a long time, and I conducted a fair amount of research on entrepreneurship and innovation before joining the Board.
这个话题我一直很感兴趣，在加入董事会之前我对创业和创新进行了大量的研究。
But the topic is also important precisely because of our dual mandate.
但正是由于我们的双重使命，这个主题也很重要。
To convince you of this, I will explain a few of the ways in which economists think about entrepreneurship, and how they relate to the dual mandate.
为了让您相信这一点，我将解释经济学家思考创业的一些方式，以及它们与双重使命的关系。
The first is the most basic: For many people—many millions, in fact—entrepreneurship or self-employment is a career choice.
第一个是最基本的：对于许多人（事实上是数百万人）来说，创业或自营职业是一种职业选择。
7 It is their preferred way of participating in the labor market and obtaining income for themselves and their families.
7 这是他们参与劳动力市场并为自己和家人获取收入的首选方式。
They prefer to be their own bosses, with all the benefits and risks that entails.
他们更喜欢自己当老板，享受由此带来的所有好处和风险。
8 But whether they end up hiring others or not, self-employed individuals support the labor market by providing a job for themselves.
8 但无论个体经营者最终是否雇用他人，他们都会通过为自己提供工作来支持劳动力市场。
A second way economists think about entrepreneurship is a little broader: New business creation is a large contributor to overall job growth.
经济学家看待创业的第二种方式更为广泛：新企业的创造是整体就业增长的重要贡献者。
In fact, new businesses punch above their weight.
事实上，新业务的表现超出了其自身能力。
For example, during the handful of years before the pandemic, in a typical year only about 8 percent of all employer firms were new entrants, but these new entrants accounted for about 15 percent of annual gross job creation.
例如，在大流行之前的几年里，一般情况下，所有雇主公司中只有约 8% 是新进入者，但这些新进入者约占年度总就业岗位创造量的 15%。
9 And research has found that this job creation effect is long lasting.
9 研究发现，这种创造就业的效应是持久的。
Even though many new firms do not survive, those that do survive tend to grow rapidly over 5 to 10 years, largely offsetting the job losses from those firms that shut down.
尽管许多新公司未能生存下来，但那些幸存下来的公司往往会在 5 至 10 年内迅速增长，很大程度上抵消了那些倒闭公司造成的就业损失。
10
10
A third way economists think about entrepreneurship, which I have explored in my own research, is that a small but critical subset of new firms are innovators—they introduce new products or business processes that change how we consume or produce.
经济学家对创业精神的第三种看法是，我在自己的研究中探讨了这一点，即一小部分新公司是创新者，但很关键——它们推出了新产品或业务流程，改变了我们消费或生产的方式。
11 As such, they make large contributions to overall productivity growth over time.
11 因此，随着时间的推移，它们对整体生产率的增长做出了巨大贡献。
That is, innovative entrepreneurs help enable us to do more with less—and even more so if access to innovation participation is equitable.
也就是说，创新企业家帮助我们以更少的资源做更多的事情——如果创新参与机会公平的话，效果甚至会更好。
12 It is important that everyone, including women, historically underrepresented groups, people from certain geographic regions, and other diverse representative groups, can participate in the entrepreneurship and innovation economy.
12 重要的是，每个人，包括妇女、历史上代表性不足的群体、来自某些地理区域的人们以及其他不同的代表性群体，都可以参与创业和创新经济。
In my research, I have found that investors underrate the prospects of Black-founded, or simply outsider-founded, startups in early funding stages.
在我的研究中，我发现投资者在早期融资阶段低估了黑人创立的或简单的局外人创立的初创公司的前景。
Better assessment of the early stages of invention and innovation could broaden the range of new entrants and the ideas they contribute to their local communities and the broader economy.
对发明和创新的早期阶段进行更好的评估可以扩大新进入者的范围以及他们为当地社区和更广泛的经济贡献的想法。
Consider the Dual Mandate So let's return to the dual mandate.
考虑双重使命 让我们回到双重使命。
You can now understand that self-employment and entrepreneurial job creation are relevant for our employment mandate.
您现在可以了解，自营职业和创业创造就业机会与我们的就业任务相关。
Indeed, one could argue that entrepreneurs are critical to Fed policymakers' efforts to promote maximum employment.
事实上，有人可能会说，企业家对于美联储政策制定者促进就业最大化的努力至关重要。
And the productivity gains we reap from entrepreneurship are like productivity growth from any other source.
我们从创业中获得的生产力提升与任何其他来源的生产力增长一样。
When the pace of productivity growth increases, it allows for economic activity and wage growth to be robust while also being consistent with price stability.
当生产率增长速度加快时，经济活动和工资增长就会强劲，同时也与价格稳定保持一致。
The importance of business startups to our dual mandate objectives is why I have watched closely as various measures of new business formation have surged since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
自 COVID-19 大流行爆发以来，创业公司对我们的双重任务目标非常重要，这也是我密切关注各种新企业组建措施激增的原因。
Applications for new businesses jumped to a record pace shortly after the pandemic struck the U.S. 13 The pace of applications has remained elevated above pre-pandemic norms all the way from the summer of 2020 to the most recent data, even though the pace appears to be cooling some this year.
在大流行袭击美国后不久，新企业的申请速度就跃升至创纪录的水平。 13 从 2020 年夏季到最新数据，申请速度一直高于大流行前的正常水平，尽管今年的速度似乎有所放缓。
14 At first, it might have seemed like these business applications were mainly being submitted by people who lost their jobs, or perhaps by an increase in "gig economy" work.
14 乍一看，这些商业申请似乎主要是由失业者提交的，或者可能是由“零工经济”工作的增加而提交的。
There was doubtless some of that going on, but research and data since then have painted a more optimistic picture.
毫无疑问，有些事情正在发生，但自那时以来的研究和数据描绘了一幅更加乐观的图景。
When researchers look across areas of the country, the pandemic business applications had only a weak connection with layoffs.
当研究人员审视全国各地时，发现大流行的商业应用程序与裁员只有微弱的联系。
The surge in applications persisted long after overall layoffs fell to the subdued pace we have seen since early 2021.
在总体裁员速度降至 2021 年初以来的低迷水平之后，申请数量的激增持续了很长一段时间。
The applications did have a strong relationship with workers voluntarily leaving their jobs.
这些申请确实与工人自愿离职有密切关系。
Some quitting workers may have chosen to join these new businesses as founders or early employees.
一些离职员工可能选择以创始人或早期员工的身份加入这些新企业。
And surging business applications were soon followed by new businesses hiring workers and expanding.
随着商业申请的激增，很快就有新企业雇佣员工并扩张。
Over the last two years of available data, new firms created 1.9 million jobs per year, a pace not seen since the eve of the Global Financial Crisis.
根据过去两年的现有数据，新公司每年创造 190 万个就业岗位，这是自全球金融危机前夕以来从未见过的速度。
15
15
The industry patterns of this surge reflect shifts in consumer and business needs resulting from the pandemic and its aftermath.
这种激增的行业模式反映了大流行及其后果导致的消费者和企业需求的变化。
For example, in large metro areas, new business creation shifted from city centers to the suburbs, perhaps because of the increase in remote work.
例如，在大都市区，新业务的创造从市中心转移到郊区，这可能是因为远程工作的增加。
Suddenly, people wanted to eat lunch or go to the gym closer to their home, rather than close to their downtown office.
突然间，人们想在离家更近的地方吃午餐或去健身房，而不是靠近市中心的办公室。
Likewise, consumer and business tastes for more online purchases, with the shipping requirements that entails, are evident in the surge of business entry in the online retail and transportation sectors.
同样，消费者和企业对更多在线购买的偏好以及随之而来的运输要求，在在线零售和运输行业的企业进入激增中显而易见。
But this is not only about moving restaurants closer to workers or changing patterns of goods consumption.
但这不仅仅是让餐馆更靠近工人或改变商品消费模式。
There was also a particularly strong entry into high-tech industries, such as data processing and hosting, as well as research and development services.
数据处理和托管以及研发服务等高科技行业的进入也特别强劲。
16 That may have more to do with developments like artificial intelligence than with the pandemic specifically, as I discussed in a speech in Atlanta last week.
16 正如我上周在亚特兰大的一次演讲中所讨论的那样，这可能更多地与人工智能等发展有关，而不是具体与大流行有关。
17
17 号
Economists will spend years debating the various causes of the surge in business creation during and soon after the pandemic.
经济学家将花费数年时间讨论大流行期间和之后不久企业创造激增的各种原因。
Perhaps strong monetary and fiscal policy backstopping aggregate demand played some role, or pandemic social safety net policies, or simply the accommodative financial conditions of 2020 and 2021.
也许支撑总需求的强劲货币和财政政策发挥了一定作用，或者大流行的社会安全网政策，或者仅仅是2020年和2021年的宽松金融状况。
18 Indeed, more research is needed and will be the subject of many dissertations in the near future.
18 事实上，需要进行更多的研究，并且将成为不久的将来许多论文的主题。
I do think a large part of the story is ultimately a case of resourceful and determined American entrepreneurs, perhaps including some of you, responding to the tumultuous shocks of the pandemic.
我确实认为，这个故事的很大一部分最终是关于足智多谋、意志坚定的美国企业家（也许包括你们中的一些人）应对这一流行病的动荡冲击的案例。
They, like some of you, stepped in to meet the rapidly changing needs of households and businesses.
他们和你们中的一些人一样，介入以满足家庭和企业快速变化的需求。
This points to a fourth way economists like to think about entrepreneurship, which is that entrepreneurship plays a big role in helping the economy adapt to change.
这指出了经济学家喜欢思考创业精神的第四种方式，即创业精神在帮助经济适应变化方面发挥着重要作用。
Research suggests that entrepreneurs and the businesses they create are highly responsive to big economic shocks, and the COVID-19 pandemic was certainly a seismic shock.
研究表明，企业家及其创建的企业对重大经济冲击反应灵敏，而 COVID-19 大流行无疑是一次地震冲击。
19 To be sure, the future is uncertain.
19 诚然，未来是不确定的。
It is unclear what the productivity effects of the pandemic surge of new businesses, particularly in high tech, will be.
目前尚不清楚新业务（尤其是高科技业务）的大流行激增将对生产力产生什么影响。
20 And whether that surge will continue is an open question; after all, the pre-pandemic period was a period of declining rates of new business creation, and the pandemic surge itself does appear to be cooling off recently.
20 这种激增是否会持续下去还是一个悬而未决的问题。毕竟，大流行前时期是新业务创造率下降的时期，而且大流行本身的激增最近似乎正在降温。
21
21
Conclusion For now, let me say that I am grateful that entrepreneurs continue to give us a hand in meeting our employment mandate, and whatever productivity gains we may reap in coming years as a result may help ease tradeoffs with inflation as well.
结论 现在，我要说的是，我很感激企业家继续帮助我们实现就业任务，无论我们在未来几年可能获得什么生产率的提高，也可能有助于缓解与通货膨胀的权衡。
Finally, I will share one last story about why South Carolina will always hold a special place in my and my sisters' hearts.
最后，我将分享最后一个故事，说明为什么南卡罗来纳州将永远在我和我的姐妹们心中占有特殊的地位。
Every summer and at Thanksgiving, we would travel through the Palmetto State to our grandparents' house in Winston-Salem.
每年夏天和感恩节，我们都会穿过帕尔梅托州前往温斯顿塞勒姆的祖父母家。
Sitting in the back seat of the station wagon, we were entranced by the many colorful signs along Interstate 95 advertising what I, as a child, viewed as South Carolina's number one attraction: the South of the Border roadside amusement park.
坐在旅行车的后座上，我们被 95 号州际公路上许多色彩缤纷的标志迷住了，这些标志上的广告是我小时候认为的南卡罗来纳州第一大景点：边境南部路边游乐园。
We begged our parents to stop every time.
我们每次都恳求父母停止。
It was an epic struggle that went on for more than a decade.
这是一场持续了十多年的史诗般的斗争。
Once or twice they did relent, a sweet childhood victory!
有一两次他们确实软化了，这是童年甜蜜的胜利！
And here is the funny thing about travels—paths can cross.
旅行的有趣之处在于——路径可以交叉。
The timing is such that my sisters and I may have even been helped by a waiter named Ben, a young man from Dillon, South Carolina, who would go on to be Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke!
时机如此，我和我的姐妹们甚至可能得到了一位名叫本的服务员的帮助，他是一位来自南卡罗来纳州狄龙的年轻人，后来成为美联储主席本·伯南克！
22 Perhaps it was the world's way of foreshadowing.
22 也许这是世界上预示的方式。
Thank you for having me here in Charleston.
感谢您邀请我来到查尔斯顿。
It is inspiring to meet this group of bold, entrepreneurial women in South Carolina, and I look forward to continuing our conversation.
在南卡罗来纳州见到这群大胆、富有创业精神的女性真是令人鼓舞，我期待着继续我们的对话。
1.
1.
The views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.
这里表达的观点是我自己的观点，不一定是联邦公开市场委员会同事的观点。
Return to text
返回正文
2.
2.
See Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Reserve Board, National Credit Union Administration, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and State Financial Regulators (2024), " Federal and State Financial Regulatory Agencies Issue Interagency Statement on Supervisory Practices regarding Financial Institutions Affected by Hurricane Helene ," joint press release, October 2.
请参阅联邦存款保险公司、联邦储备委员会、国家信用合作社管理局、货币监理署和州金融监管机构 (2024)，“联邦和州金融监管机构就受飓风海伦影响的金融机构的监管实践发布机构间声明”，联合新闻稿，10 月 2 日。
Return to text
返回正文
3.
3.
See U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, Completions Survey, available on the NCES website at https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/survey-components/7 .
请参阅美国教育部国家教育统计中心 (NCES)、综合高等教育数据系统、完成情况调查，可在 NCES 网站上获取：https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/survey-components/7。
Return to text
返回正文
4.
4.
See Dania V.
参见丹尼娅 V.
Francis, Angela C.M.
弗朗西斯，安吉拉 C.M.
de Oliveira, and Carey Dimmitt (2019), "Do School Counselors Exhibit Bias in Recommending Students for Advanced Coursework?" B.E.
de Oliveira 和 Carey Dimmitt (2019)，“学校辅导员在推荐学生参加高级课程时是否存在偏见？”是。
Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, vol. 19 (July), pp.
经济分析与政策杂志，卷。 19（7 月），第 19 页。
1–17.
1-17。
Return to text
返回正文
5.
5.
See Lisa D.
参见丽莎 D.
Cook and Anna Gifty Opoku-Agyeman (2019), "'It Was a Mistake for Me to Choose This Field,'" New York Times, September 30.
Cook 和 Anna Gifty Opoku-Agyeman (2019)，“‘我选择这个领域是一个错误’”，《纽约时报》，9 月 30 日。
Return to text
返回正文
6.
6.
See Lisa D.
参见丽莎 D.
Cook and Christine Moser (2024), "Lessons for Expanding the Share of Disadvantaged Students in Economics from the AEA Summer Program at Michigan State University," Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 38 (Summer), pp.
Cook 和 Christine Moser (2024)，“密歇根州立大学 AEA 暑期项目中扩大弱势学生经济学份额的经验教训”，《经济展望杂志》，卷。 38（夏季），第 38 页。
191–208.
191-208。
Return to text
返回正文
7.
7.
There is no single way to measure the number of self-employed individuals and related businesses, but it certainly numbers in the millions.
没有单一的方法可以衡量个体经营者和相关企业的数量，但其数量肯定有数百万。
The latest Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey indicates there are roughly 10 million unincorporated and 7 million incorporated self-employed individuals.
美国劳工统计局最新的当前人口调查显示，大约有 1000 万非法人个体经营者和 700 万个体经营者。
Separate data on businesses from the U.S. Census Bureau indicate that, as of 2021, there were about 25 million nonemployer and 800,000 employer sole proprietorships ( Nonemployer Statistics ; Statistics of U.S. Businesses ).
美国人口普查局的单独企业数据显示，截至 2021 年，大约有 2500 万个非雇主独资企业和 80 万个雇主独资企业（非雇主统计数据；美国企业统计数据）。
For analysis of inconsistencies between self-employment data sources, see Katharine G.
有关自营职业数据源之间不一致的分析，请参阅 Katharine G.
Abraham, John C.
亚伯拉罕，约翰 C.
Haltiwanger, Claire Hou, Kristin Sandusky, and James R.
Haltiwanger、Claire Hou、Kristin Sandusky 和 James R.
Spletzer (2021), "Reconciling Survey and Administrative Measures of Self-Employment," Journal of Labor Economics, vol. 39 (October), pp.
Spletzer (2021)，“协调自营职业的调查和管理措施”，《劳动经济学杂志》，卷。 39（十月），第 39 页。
825–60.
825–60。
Return to text
返回正文
8.
8.
See Erik Hurst and Benjamin Wild Pugsley (2011), " What Do Small Businesses Do?
参见 Erik Hurst 和 Benjamin Wild Pugsley (2011)，“小型企业做什么？
(PDF) " Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall, pp.
(PDF) “《布鲁金斯学会经济活动论文》，秋季，第 14 页。
73–142; and Erik G.
73–142；和埃里克·G.
Hurst and Benjamin W.
赫斯特和本杰明 W.
Pugsley (2017), "Wealth, Tastes, and Entrepreneurial Choice," in John Haltiwanger, Erik Hurst, Javier Miranda, and Antoinette Schoar, eds., Measuring Entrepreneurial Businesses: Current Knowledge and Challenges (Chicago: University of Chicago Press).
Pugsley (2017)，“财富、品味和创业选择”，载于 John Haltiwanger、Erik Hurst、Javier Miranda 和 Antoinette Schoar 编辑，衡量创业企业：当前知识和挑战（芝加哥：芝加哥大学出版社）。
Return to text
返回正文
9.
9.
Gross job creation refers to all jobs created by entering and expanding establishments.
创造就业机会总额是指通过进入和扩大机构而创造的所有就业机会。
Data are from the Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics, averaged for 2015–19.
数据来自人口普查局商业动态统计，2015-19 年的平均值。
New firms' share of net job creation is much higher, but this is partly an artifact of measurement practices: Firms with an age less than one measured in annual data cannot contribute negatively to net job creation.
新企业在净就业创造中所占的份额要高得多，但这在一定程度上是衡量实践的产物：以年度数据衡量的年龄小于一岁的企业不能对净就业创造产生负面贡献。
Return to text
返回正文
10.
10.
See John Haltiwanger, Ron S.
参见约翰·哈尔蒂万格 (John Haltiwanger)、罗恩·S.
Jarmin, and Javier Miranda (2013), "Who Creates Jobs?
Jarmin 和 Javier Miranda (2013)，“谁创造了就业机会？
Small versus Large versus Young," Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 95 (May), pp.
小与大与年轻，”经济与统计评论，卷。 95（5 月），第 95 页。
347–61; and Ryan Decker, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, and Javier Miranda (2014), "The Role of Entrepreneurship in US Job Creation and Economic Dynamism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 28 (Summer), pp.
347–61；以及 Ryan Decker、John Haltiwanger、Ron Jarmin 和 Javier Miranda (2014)，“创业精神在美国就业创造和经济活力中的作用”，《经济展望杂志》，卷。 28（夏季），第 28 页。
3–24.
3-24。
Return to text
返回正文
11.
11.
For evidence on the importance of innovating young and small firms, see Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit, Harun Alp, Nicholas Bloom, and William Kerr (2018), "Innovation, Reallocation, and Growth," American Economic Review, vol. 108 (November), pp.
有关年轻企业和小型企业创新重要性的证据，请参阅 Daron Acemoglu、Ufuk Akcigit、Harun Alp、Nicholas Bloom 和 William Kerr (2018)，“创新、重新分配和增长”，《美国经济评论》，第 1 卷。 108（十一月），第 108 页。
3450–91.
3450–91。
For recent trends in technology diffusion of relevance to business entry, see Ufuk Akcigit and Sina T.
有关与商业进入相关的技术传播的最新趋势，请参阅 Ufuk Akcigit 和 Sina T。
Ates (2023), "What Happened to US Business Dynamism?" Journal of Political Economy, vol. 131 (August), pp.
Ates (2023)，“美国商业活力发生了什么？”政治经济学杂志，第一卷。 131（八月），第 131 页。
2059–2124.
2059–2124。
Return to text
返回正文
12.
12.
See Lisa D.
参见丽莎 D.
Cook (2011), "Inventing Social Capital: Evidence from African American Inventors, 1843–1930," Explorations in Economic History, vol. 48 (December), pp.
库克（2011），“发明社会资本：非裔美国发明家的证据，1843-1930”，经济史探索，卷。 48（12 月），第 48 页。
507–18; Lisa D.
507–18；丽莎 D.
Cook (2014), "Violence and Economic Activity: Evidence from African American Patents, 1870–1940," Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 19 (June), pp.
Cook (2014)，“暴力与经济活动：非裔美国人专利的证据，1870-1940 年”，《经济增长杂志》，卷。 19（六月），第 19 页。
221–57; and Lisa D.
221–57；和丽莎 D.
Cook (2020), " Policies to Broaden Participation in the Innovation Process (PDF) ," Hamilton Project Policy Proposal 2020-11 (Washington: Brookings Institution, August).
Cook (2020)，“扩大创新过程参与的政策 (PDF)”，汉密尔顿项目政策提案 2020-11（华盛顿：布鲁金斯学会，8 月）。
Return to text
返回正文
13.
13.
"Business applications" refers to applications for new Employer Identification Numbers submitted to the Internal Revenue Service.
“商业申请”是指向国税局提交的新雇主识别号申请。
These are reported by the U.S. Census Bureau in the Business Formation Statistics.
这些数据由美国人口普查局在企业组建统计中报告。
An application does not necessarily mean an actual firm with employees, revenue, or both will result.
申请并不一定意味着会产生一家拥有员工、收入或两者兼而有之的实际公司。
Return to text
返回正文
14.
14.
Unless otherwise noted, the facts described in this section are documented in Ryan A.
除非另有说明，本节中描述的事实记录在 Ryan A.
Decker and John Haltiwanger (2024), "Surging Business Formation in the Pandemic: A Brief Update," working paper, September; and Ryan A.
Decker 和 John Haltiwanger (2024)，“大流行中业务激增：简要更新”，工作文件，9 月；和瑞安 A.
Decker and John Haltiwanger (2023), " Surging Business Formation in the Pandemic: Causes and Consequences?
Decker 和 John Haltiwanger (2023)，“疫情期间企业组建激增：原因和后果？
(PDF) " Brookings Papers on Economic Activity , Fall, pp.
(PDF) “《布鲁金斯学会经济活动论文》，秋季，第 14 页。
249–302.
249–302。
Return to text
返回正文
15.
15.
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics (BED) report new firm job creation of 1.9 million, on average, in 2022 and 2023, the highest pace since 2007.
美国劳工统计局商业就业动态 (BED) 的数据显示，2022 年和 2023 年平均新增企业就业岗位 190 万个，这是自 2007 年以来的最高增速。
Alternative data on firm births from the Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics, which lag the BED by one year, report 2.5 million jobs created by new firms in 2022, also the highest pace since 2007.
来自人口普查局商业动态统计的公司诞生的替代数据比 BED 滞后一年，报告称 2022 年新公司将创造 250 万个就业岗位，这也是自 2007 年以来的最高增速。
Return to text
返回正文
16.
16.
See Ryan Decker and John Haltiwanger (2024), " High Tech Business Entry in the Pandemic Era ," FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, April 19).
请参阅 Ryan Decker 和 John Haltiwanger (2024)，“大流行时代的高科技商业进入”，FEDS 注释（华盛顿：美联储系统理事会，4 月 19 日）。
Return to text
返回正文
17.
17.
See Lisa D.
参见丽莎 D.
Cook (2024), " Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, and the Path Ahead for Productivity ," speech delivered at "Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work," a conference organized by the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, and Richmond, Atlanta, October 1.
库克 (2024)，“人工智能、大数据和生产力的未来之路”，在 10 月 1 日由亚特兰大、波士顿和里士满联邦储备银行组织的“技术引发的颠覆：人工智能、大数据和远程工作的影响”会议上发表的演讲。
Return to text
返回正文
18.
18.
For a potential role of fiscal policy, see Catherine E.
有关财政政策的潜在作用，请参阅 Catherine E.
Fazio, Jorge Guzman, Yupeng Liu, and Scott Stern (2021), " How Is COVID Changing the Geography of Entrepreneurship?
Fazio、Jorge Guzman、Yupeng Liu 和 Scott Stern (2021)，“新冠疫情如何改变创业的地理？
Evidence from the Startup Cartography Project ," NBER Working Paper Series 28787 (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, May).
来自初创制图项目的证据，NBER 工作论文系列 28787（马萨诸塞州剑桥：国家经济研究局，5 月）。
For safety net programs (specifically expanded unemployment insurance), see Joonkyu Choi, Samuel Messer, Michael Navarrete, and Veronika Penciakova (2024), "Unemployment Benefits Expansion and Business Formation," working paper, April.
有关安全网计划（特别是扩大失业保险），请参阅 Joonkyu Choi、Samuel Messer、Michael Navarrete 和 Veronika Penciakova (2024)，“失业救济金扩展和企业组建”，工作文件，4 月。
For the importance of financial conditions for entrepreneurship in past business cycles, see Michael Siemer (2019), "Employment Effects of Financial Constraints during the Great Recession," Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 101 (March), pp.
有关过去商业周期中财务状况对创业的重要性，请参阅 Michael Siemer (2019)，“大衰退期间财务约束的就业影响”，《经济与统计评论》，第 1 卷。 101（三月），页。
16–29; and Teresa C.
16-29；和特蕾莎·C.
Fort, John Haltiwanger, Ron S.
福特，约翰·哈尔蒂万格，罗恩·S.
Jarmin, and Javier Miranda (2013), "How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size," IMF Economic Review, vol. 61 (3), pp.
Jarmin 和 Javier Miranda (2013)，“企业如何应对商业周期：企业年龄和企业规模的作用”，国际货币基金组织经济评论，卷。 61 (3)，第 61 页。
520–59.
520–59。
Return to text
返回正文
19.
19.
Examples of research finding a large role for business entry in responding to aggregate shocks include Manuel Adelino, Song Ma, and David Robinson (2017), "Firm Age, Investment Opportunities, and Job Creation," Journal of Finance, vol. 72 (June), pp.
发现企业进入在应对总体冲击方面发挥重要作用的研究例子包括 Manuel Adelino、Song Ma 和 David Robinson (2017)，“企业年龄、投资机会和就业机会创造”，《金融杂志》，第 1 卷。 72（六月），第 72 页。
999–1038; Ryan A.
999–1038；瑞恩·A.
Decker, Meagan McCollum, and Gregory B.
德克尔、梅根·麦科勒姆和格雷戈里·B.
Upton, Jr. (2024), "Boom Town Business Dynamics," Journal of Human Resources, vol. 59 (March), pp.
Upton, Jr. (2024)，“新兴城市商业动态”，《人力资源杂志》，卷。 59（三月），第 59 页。
627–51; and Fatih Karahan, Benjamin Pugsley, and Ayşegűl Şahin (2024), "Demographic Origins of the Startup Deficit," American Economic Review, vol. 114 (July), pp.
627–51；以及 Fatih Karahan、Benjamin Pugsley 和 Ayşegűl Şahin (2024)，“初创企业赤字的人口起源”，美国经济评论，卷。 114（七月），第 114 页。
1986–2023.
1986 年至 2023 年。
Return to text
返回正文
20.
20.
The last period of robust productivity growth in the U.S., the late 1990s and early 2000s, was preceded by several years by strong business creation in high-tech industries; see Lucia Foster, Cheryl Grim, John C.
美国上一次生产率强劲增长时期是 20 世纪 90 年代末和 2000 年代初，在此之前的几年里，高科技行业的业务创造强劲；参见 Lucia Foster、Cheryl Grim、John C.
Haltiwanger, and Zoltan Wolf (2021), "Innovation, Productivity Dispersion, and Productivity Growth," in Carol Corrado, Jonathan Haskel, Javier Miranda, and Daniel Sichel, eds., Measuring and Accounting for Innovation in the Twenty-First Century (Chicago: University of Chicago Press).
Haltiwanger 和 Zoltan Wolf (2021)，“创新、生产力分散和生产力增长”，载于 Carol Corrado、Jonathan Haskel、Javier Miranda 和 Daniel Sichel 编辑的《二十一世纪创新的衡量和核算》（芝加哥：芝加哥大学出版社）。
Return to text
返回正文
21.
21.
The number of annual new firms as a share of all firms declined from around 12 percent in the 1980s, on average, to around 9 percent in the period of 2010–19.
每年新成立的公司数量占所有公司的比例从 20 世纪 80 年代的平均 12% 左右下降到 2010-19 年期间的 9% 左右。
New firms' share of gross job creation declined from nearly 20 percent to less than 15 percent over the same period.
同期，新公司在创造就业机会总额中所占的份额从近 20% 下降到不足 15%。
Data are from Census Bureau Business Dynamics Statistics.
数据来自人口普查局商业动态统计。
The pre-pandemic trend decline in entry rates was documented by Ryan Decker, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, and Javier Miranda (2014), "The Role of Entrepreneurship in US Job Creation and Economic Dynamism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 28 (Summer), pp.
Ryan Decker、John Haltiwanger、Ron Jarmin 和 Javier Miranda (2014) 记录了大流行前入学率下降的趋势，“创业精神在美国就业创造和经济活力中的作用”，《经济展望杂志》，第 1 卷。 28（夏季），第 28 页。
3–24.
3-24。
Return to text
返回正文
22.
22.
See Ben S.
参见本·S.
Bernanke (2009), " Brief Remarks ," speech delivered at the Interstate Interchange Dedication Ceremony, Dillon, S.C., March 7.
Bernanke (2009)，“简要评论”，3 月 7 日在南卡罗来纳州狄龙州际交汇处落成仪式上发表的演讲。
Return to text
返回正文