Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Kansas City, Missouri

密苏里州堪萨斯城堪萨斯城联邦储备银行

Thank you, President Schmid, for the kind introduction and for the invitation to speak here today.

感谢施密德主席的热情介绍和邀请今天在这里发言。

1 It is an honor to be in Kansas City and in the beautiful 10th District.

1 我很荣幸来到堪萨斯城和美丽的第十区。

I welcome the opportunity to attend events like this one because I believe it is essential for Federal Reserve policymakers to share their views with the public and, just as important, to hear directly from business leaders, workers, and families about how they are experiencing the economy.

我很高兴有机会参加这样的活动，因为我认为美联储政策制定者有必要与公众分享他们的观点，同样重要的是，直接听取商界领袖、工人和家庭对经济的感受。

In many ways, the Kansas City region is a perfect place to make those connections.

从很多方面来说，堪萨斯城地区都是建立这些联系的完美场所。

Sitting at the confluence of the Kansas and Missouri rivers, this area has been a place where people met and shared ideas long before the United States existed.

该地区位于堪萨斯河和密苏里河的交汇处，早在美国存在之前就已经是人们聚会和分享想法的地方。

And that tradition of making connections has continued to present day.

这种建立联系的传统一直延续到今天。

The Pony Express was founded just north of here in St. Joseph, this is the greeting card capital, and, next year, this area will bring people together from around the globe for soccer's World Cup.

Pony Express 成立于圣约瑟夫以北，这里是贺卡之都，明年，该地区将让来自世界各地的人们聚集在一起观看足球世界杯。

I am happy to have the opportunity to continue the tradition of making connections in Kansas City with all of you.

我很高兴有机会继续在堪萨斯城与大家建立联系的传统。

Today I would like to share my economic outlook.

今天我想分享一下我的经济展望。

I will discuss how I see recent economic activity and talk about developments pertaining to both sides of our dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.

我将讨论我如何看待最近的经济活动，并讨论与我们最大限度就业和价格稳定双重使命有关的发展。

I will then offer my current view of monetary policy including the Fed's balance sheet before turning to our discussion.

然后，在开始我们的讨论之前，我将提出我目前对货币政策（包括美联储资产负债表）的看法。

Economic Outlook In shaping my economic outlook, I consider a wide variety of government, administrative, and private-sector data, including data collected by the Kansas City Fed and fellow Reserve Banks across the country.

经济展望 在塑造我的经济展望时，我考虑了各种政府、行政和私营部门的数据，包括堪萨斯城联储和全国各地储备银行收集的数据。

Casting a wide net for information on the economy is especially important at this moment because the recent federal government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic indicators that I typically refer to in speeches like this one, including the monthly jobs report and the personal consumption expenditures price index.

此时此刻，广撒网获取经济信息尤为重要，因为最近联邦政府关门，推迟了我通常在类似这样的演讲中提到的关键经济指标的发布，包括月度就业报告和个人消费支出价格指数。

While I consider federal data to be the gold standard, other sources of information are also available for policymakers to do our jobs.

虽然我认为联邦数据是黄金标准，但政策制定者也可以使用其他信息来源来完成我们的工作。

And part of that information comes from meetings like this one and hearing from contacts around the country.

这些信息的一部分来自像这样的会议以及来自全国各地联系人的听证会。

For example, ahead of our next policy meeting, I look forward to reviewing the Beige Book, a report on economic conditions in each of the twelve Reserve Bank districts, which will be released next week.

例如，在我们的下一次政策会议之前，我期待着审查褐皮书，这是一份关于十二个储备银行地区各自经济状况的报告，该报告将于下周发布。

Economic Activity Before the government shutdown, available data indicated that the U.S. economy was on a trajectory of moderate growth this year.

经济活动 在政府关门之前，现有数据表明美国经济今年处于温和增长轨道。

The shutdown has likely curtailed economic activity this quarter, reflecting furloughed federal workers and the suspension of government purchases of goods and services, including payments to contractors.

政府关门可能会限制本季度的经济活动，反映出联邦工作人员休假以及政府暂停购买商品和服务，包括向承包商付款。

There may also have been spillover effects to the private sector stemming from delays in federal payments, approvals, and other government activity.

联邦付款、审批和其他政府活动的延误也可能对私营部门产生溢出效应。

I see those effects as largely temporary and likely to reverse in the coming months.

我认为这些影响很大程度上是暂时的，并且可能在未来几个月内逆转。

Thinking more broadly, I see the balance of risks in the economy as having shifted in recent months with increased downside risks to employment compared to the upside risks to inflation, which have likely declined somewhat recently.

从更广泛的角度思考，我认为近几个月来经济风险平衡发生了变化，就业下行风险增加，而通胀上行风险最近可能有所下降。

Labor market In the labor market, information available in recent weeks appears to be consistent with a gradual cooling in both labor demand and labor supply.

劳动力市场 在劳动力市场上，最近几周获得的信息似乎与劳动力需求和劳动力供应逐渐降温的情况一致。

For instance, unemployment insurance claims received from states have largely moved sideways in recent weeks.

例如，最近几周，各州收到的失业保险申请基本呈横盘走势。

Anecdotal reports about the state of the labor market have been mixed, with some firms announcing a slower pace of hiring or cutbacks and others indicating they are ready to move forward with previously delayed hiring and investment.

关于劳动力市场状况的传闻好坏参半，一些公司宣布放缓招聘或裁员步伐，而另一些公司则表示他们已准备好推进此前推迟的招聘和投资。

I expect that the unemployment rate is likely to inch up slightly by the end of the year from the relatively low 4.3 percent rate recorded in August.

我预计，到今年年底，失业率可能会比 8 月份相对较低的 4.3% 略有上升。

While still solid, I continue to view the risk to my employment forecast as skewed to the downside.

尽管仍然稳健，但我仍然认为我的就业预测面临下行风险。

Inflation The latest available readings show that inflation is running at a rate similar to that of a year ago, a bit below 3 percent, indicating that progress toward our 2 percent target has stalled.

通货膨胀 最新数据显示，通货膨胀率与一年前相似，略低于 3%，这表明实现 2% 目标的进展已陷入停滞。

This lack of progress appears to be due to tariff effects, with signs that inflation excluding the effects of tariffs may be continuing to make progress toward 2 percent.

这种缺乏进展的原因似乎是关税影响，有迹象表明，排除关税影响后的通胀率可能会继续向 2% 迈进。

Some firms have indicated that they expect pass-through of pricing pressure from tariffs to pick up in the fourth quarter as the inventory of non-tariffed merchandise is depleted.

一些公司表示，随着非关税商品库存耗尽，他们预计关税带来的定价压力将在第四季度加剧。

A reasonable base case is that tariffs result in a one-time shift in the price level, not an ongoing inflation problem.

一个合理的基本情况是，关税会导致价格水平的一次性变化，而不是持续的通货膨胀问题。

That view is reinforced by inflation expectations readings.

通胀预期数据强化了这一观点。

Most measures of near-term inflation expectations have retraced their spring rise, and market-based long-term inflation expectations continue to be well anchored.

大多数近期通胀预期指标已回吐春季涨幅，基于市场的长期通胀预期继续得到良好锚定。

Several factors will influence the size and persistence of the rise in inflation.

有几个因素将影响通胀上升的规模和持续时间。

Those include the final tariff rates that are implemented, the extent and timing of pass-through to consumer prices, the reaction of supply chains and domestic manufacturing, and overall economic conditions.

其中包括实施的最终关税税率、传导至消费者价格的程度和时间、供应链和国内制造业的反应以及整体经济状况。

I will continue to monitor these factors closely.

我将继续密切关注这些因素。

I remain firmly committed to returning inflation to the Fed's 2 percent target.

我仍然坚定地致力于将通胀率恢复到美联储 2% 的目标。

Monetary Policy Given that outlook, I supported last month's decision to reduce our policy rate by 1/4 percentage point.

货币政策 鉴于这一前景，我支持上个月将政策利率降低 1/4 个百分点的决定。

That step was appropriate because I see the balance of risks as having shifted in recent months as downside risks to employment have increased.

这一步骤是适当的，因为我认为近几个月来，随着就业下行风险的增加，风险平衡发生了变化。

The current policy stance is still somewhat restrictive, but we have moved it closer to its neutral level that neither restricts nor stimulates the economy.

目前的政策立场还是有一定的限制性，但已经接近不限制也不刺激经济的中性水平。

The evolving balance of risks underscores the need to proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate.

不断变化的风险平衡强调，在我们接近中性利率的过程中需要缓慢推进。

At our past Federal Open Market Committee meeting, I also supported the decision to conclude the reduction of our aggregate securities holdings as of December 1.

在我们上次的联邦公开市场委员会会议上，我也支持从 12 月 1 日起完成减少证券总持有量的决定。

Over the course of balance sheet runoff that started in June 2022, we shrank our securities holdings by about $2.2 trillion.

在 2022 年 6 月开始的资产负债表缩减过程中，我们减少了约 2.2 万亿美元的证券持有量。

The Committee's long-stated plan had been to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves were somewhat above the level judged as consistent with ample reserve conditions.

委员会的长期计划是，当准备金略高于判断为符合充足准备金条件的水平时，停止资产负债表流失。

Signs emerged ahead of the October meeting indicating that such a standard had been reached.

在十月会议之前出现的迹象表明，这一标准已经达到。

In money markets, repurchase agreement (repo) rates moved up persistently relative to the interest on reserve balances (IORB) rate.

在货币市场上，回购协议（repo）利率相对于准备金余额利率（IORB）持续上升。

In addition, more notable pressures on repo rates started to emerge on tax payment dates and on Treasury issuance days along with more frequent use of our standing repo facility.

此外，随着我​​们常备回购工具的使用更加频繁，回购利率在纳税日和国债发行日开始出现更显着的压力。

With repo rates trending up, the effective federal funds rate also began to move up steadily relative to the IORB rate.

随着回购利率呈上升趋势，有效联邦基金利率相对于 IORB 利率也开始稳步上升。

Those developments were what was expected to be seen as the size of the balance sheet declined and led me to support the decision to end runoff.

随着资产负债表规模下降，这些进展是预期的，并促使我支持结束径流的决定。

Starting in December, we intend to hold the size of our balance sheet steady for a time as reserve balances continue to decline passively even as other non-reserve liabilities, such as currency, rise.

从12月开始，我们打算在一段时间内保持资产负债表规模稳定，因为即使货币等其他非准备金负债增加，准备金余额仍继续被动下降。

We will continue to allow agency securities to run off our balance sheet and will reinvest these proceeds in Treasury bills, furthering progress toward a portfolio consisting primarily of Treasury securities.

我们将继续允许机构证券从我们的资产负债表中流失，并将这些收益再投资于国库券，进一步推动主要由国库券组成的投资组合。

Over the coming years, this reinvestment strategy will help move the weighted average maturity of our portfolio closer to that of the outstanding stock of Treasury securities.

未来几年，这种再投资策略将有助于使我们投资组合的加权平均期限更接近已发行国债的期限。

I will also note that, heading into our next meeting, it remains unclear how much official data we will see before then.

我还要指出的是，在我们的下一次会议之前，目前尚不清楚我们在此之前会看到多少官方数据。

With respect to the path of the policy rate going forward, I will continue to determine policy based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

关于未来政策利率的路径，我将继续根据传入数据、不断变化的前景和风险平衡来确定政策。

I always take a meeting-by-meeting approach.

我总是采取逐次会议的方式。

This is an especially prudent approach at this time.

在这个时候，这是一个特别谨慎的做法。

Thank you again to the Kansas City Fed for hosting me today.

再次感谢堪萨斯城联储今天接待我。

I look forward to our discussion.

我期待我们的讨论。

1.

1.

The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee.

这里表达的观点是我自己的观点，不一定是我在美联储委员会或联邦公开市场委员会的同事的观点。

Return to text

返回正文