Cut or Skip?

At "Building a Better Fed Framework," American Institute for Economic Research Monetary Conference, Washington, D.C.

在“建立更好的美联储框架”上，美国经济研究所货币会议，华盛顿特区

Thank you, Lydia, and thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today.

谢谢你，莉迪亚，也感谢你今天有机会与你交谈。

I thought I might use my time with you to address the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) ongoing effort to return inflation to our 2 percent target while keeping the labor market and the economy strong.

我想我可以利用与你们在一起的时间来谈谈联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 正在努力将通货膨胀率恢复到 2% 的目标，同时保持劳动力市场和经济的强劲。

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After significant progress in reducing inflation and evident moderation in the labor market, in September the Committee judged that the time had come to begin easing monetary policy toward a more neutral setting to limit the risk of unduly weakening the labor market as progress continues toward 2 percent inflation.

在降低通胀方面取得重大进展以及劳动力市场明显温和之后，委员会于9月判断，现在是时候开始放松货币政策，走向更加中性的环境，以限制劳动力市场过度疲软的风险，因为通胀率继续向2%迈进。

After reducing the policy rate 75 basis points since our September meeting, I believe that monetary policy is still restrictive and putting downward pressure on inflation without creating undesirable weakness in the labor market.

自9月会议以来将政策利率降低75个基点后，我认为货币政策仍然是限制性的，并对通胀施加下行压力，而不会造成劳动力市场出现不良疲软。

I expect rate cuts to continue over the next year until we approach a more neutral setting of the policy rate.

我预计明年将继续降息，直到我们实现更加中性的政策利率设定。

But recent data have raised the possibility that progress on inflation may be stalling at a level meaningfully above 2 percent.

但最近的数据表明，通胀进展可能会停滞在 2% 以上的水平。

This risk has raised concerns that the FOMC should consider holding the policy rate constant at our upcoming meeting to collect more information about the future path of inflation and the economy.

这种风险引发了人们的担忧，即联邦公开市场委员会应考虑在即将举行的会议上保持政策利率不变，以收集有关未来通胀和经济路径的更多信息。

Based on the economic data in hand today and forecasts that show that inflation will continue on its downward path to 2 percent over the medium term, at present I lean toward supporting a cut to the policy rate at our December meeting.

根据今天掌握的经济数据以及显示通胀将在中期内继续下行至 2% 的预测，目前我倾向于支持在 12 月会议上下调政策利率。

But that decision will depend on whether data that we will receive before then surprises to the upside and alters my forecast for the path of inflation.

但这一决定将取决于我们在此之前收到的数据是否会出现意外的上涨并改变我对通胀路径的预测。

Let me turn to the economic outlook.

让我谈谈经济前景。

Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a strong annual pace of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024, and indications are that growth in the fourth quarter will be a bit slower.

2024 年第三季度实际国内生产总值 (GDP) 将以 2.8% 的强劲年增长率增长，有迹象表明第四季度的增长将有所放缓。

An average of private sectors forecasts predicts 2.2 percent, while based on fairly limited data so far, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently predicts 3.2 percent.

私营部门的平均预测为 2.2%，而基于迄今为止相当有限的数据，亚特兰大联储的 GDPNow 模型目前预测为 3.2%。

On the consumer side of the economy, real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.1 percent in October after a 0.5 percent rise in September.

在经济的消费者方面，实际个人消费支出（PCE）继9月份增长0.5%之后，10月份增长0.1%。

Given the recent volatility in these numbers, I won't read too much into the monthly swing.

考虑到这些数字最近的波动，我不会过多地解读每月的波动。

The modest increase in October might partially reflect some payback to the stronger growth in September.

10 月份的小幅增长可能部分反映了对 9 月份强劲增长的一些回报。

Overall, household balance sheets continue to be in generally good shape, and this position should help maintain spending going forward.

总体而言，家庭资产负债表总体仍处于良好状态，这一状况应有助于维持未来的支出。

On the business side of the economy, the S&P Global U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) rose slightly in November but still stands at a level indicating a slight deterioration in overall business conditions among manufacturers for the fifth straight month.

在经济商业方面，标普全球美国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）11月小幅上升，但仍处于表明制造商整体商业状况连续第五个月略有恶化的水平。

Today's Institute for Supply Management manufacturing survey had a similar leaning.

今天的供应管理协会制造业调查也有类似的倾向。

These readings are consistent with industrial production data for manufacturing remaining flat, as it has been for the past several months.

这些读数与制造业的工业生产数据一致，与过去几个月一样，制造业保持平稳。

But these aggregate data mask quite different performances for interest-sensitive sectors and other businesses not so affected by rates.

但这些汇总数据掩盖了利率敏感行业和其他不受利率影响较大的企业的截然不同的表现。

In the spring of 2022, when the FOMC began raising interest rates, production by more interest rate–sensitive manufacturers, such as business equipment, grew at about the same rate as production by less rate-sensitive manufacturers.

2022 年春季，当 FOMC 开始加息时，对利率敏感度较高的制造商（例如商业设备）的生产增长率与对利率敏感度较低的制造商的生产增长率大致相同。

But starting around the middle of 2023, when the policy rate hit its peak, those stories diverged, and production by interest-sensitive manufacturing declined, while other manufacturing rose, driving a sizable gap between the two types of industries.

但从 2023 年中左右开始，当政策利率达到峰值时，这些故事出现了分歧，对利率敏感的制造业的生产下降，而其他制造业则上升，导致两类行业之间出现了相当大的差距。

This divergence is an indication to me that, even after the Committee cut rates 75 basis points, restrictive policy is working the way it is intended to, affecting production in sectors where rates matter.

对我来说，这种分歧表明，即使在委员会降息 75 个基点之后，限制性政策仍在按其预期发挥作用，影响了利率至关重要的行业的生产。

It is also a reminder that there is still some distance to go in reducing the policy rate to neutral.

这也提醒人们，将政策利率降至中性还有一段距离。

As that occurs, I expect the gap between the two types of industries will narrow.

当这种情况发生时，我预计这两类行业之间的差距将会缩小。

As for the service sector, which is the larger share of business activity, the November S&P Global U.S. PMI continued to increase, extending the strong momentum for services over the past year or two.

至于在商业活动中占比较大的服务业，11月标准普尔全球美国PMI继续上升，延续了过去一两年服务业的强劲势头。

While the picture for economic activity is pretty clear right now across the major data that we look at, things aren't as clear in recent data on the labor market.

虽然目前我们查看的主要数据中经济活动的情况相当清晰，但最近的劳动力市场数据却并不那么清晰。

As expected, the October employment report showed very little increase in the number of jobs, but likely because of the temporary effects of the recent hurricanes and the strike at Boeing, which also affected businesses serving Boeing and its workers.

正如预期的那样，10 月份就业报告显示就业岗位数量几乎没有增长，但这可能是由于近期飓风和波音公司罢工的暂时影响，这也影响了为波音公司及其员工提供服务的企业。

The strike is over, and it is likely that most of the job losses from the hurricane have reversed.

罢工已经结束，飓风造成的大部分失业情况很可能已经扭转。

So I do expect a rebound in payroll data in the November employment report that is due out later this week, but it may take more time for the full swings in the payroll data to fully wash out.

因此，我确实预计将于本周晚些时候发布的 11 月就业报告中的非农就业数据将出现反弹，但非农就业数据的全面波动可能需要更多时间才能完全消除。

For that reason, I am leaning on other metrics to reveal what is really going on in the labor market.

出于这个原因，我依靠其他指标来揭示劳动力市场的真实情况。

And when I look at a broader range of data, it tells a fairly consistent story over the past year about moderating demand relative to supply, consistent with continued progress toward 2 percent inflation and without an undesirable weakening in the labor market.

当我查看更广泛的数据时，它讲述了过去一年中相对于供给而言需求放缓的相当一致的故事，与持续向 2% 的通胀迈进相一致，并且劳动力市场没有出现不良的疲软。

The unemployment rate started 2024 at 3.7 percent and climbed gradually, briefly hitting 4.3 percent before falling back down to 4.1 percent in September and October.

2024 年年初失业率为 3.7%，随后逐渐攀升，短暂达到 4.3%，然后在 9 月和 10 月回落至 4.1%。

While that is still quite low in historical terms, it indicates a labor market significantly looser than we saw from the middle of 2022 to the middle of 2023, when unemployment was close to 3.5 percent and fast wage growth contributed to high inflation.

虽然从历史角度来看，这一数字仍然相当低，但这表明劳动力市场比 2022 年中期至 2023 年中期明显宽松，当时失业率接近 3.5%，工资快速增长导致高通胀。

Other data sharpen this image of a looser but still-strong labor market.

其他数据进一步强化了劳动力市场较为宽松但依然强劲的形象。

The share of workers voluntarily quitting their jobs, an indication of tightness in the labor market, has trended down to levels lower than before the pandemic.

自愿辞职的工人比例已下降至低于大流行前的水平，这表明劳动力市场紧张。

The number of job openings continues to gradually fall, another sign of moderating demand relative to supply, but the number of layoffs is still low, consistent with a healthy labor market.

职位空缺数量继续逐渐下降，这是需求相对于供给放缓的另一个迹象，但裁员人数仍然较低，这与健康的劳动力市场一致。

Growth in wages and other forms of compensation has moderated at the same time that labor productivity has grown strongly.

在劳动生产率强劲增长的同时，工资和其他形式的薪酬增长有所放缓。

This story is very different than a couple of years ago when, for example, average hourly wages grew at an annual rate above 5 percent in 2022, at the same time that the productivity of workers was declining.

这个故事与几年前有很大不同，例如，到 2022 年，平均时薪的年增长率将超过 5%，而与此同时，工人的生产率却在下降。

This double whammy put significant upward pressure on inflation.

这种双重打击给通胀带来了巨大的上行压力。

But over the second and third quarters of 2024, average hourly wages have grown at less than a 4 percent annual rate, while productivity has grown around 2 percent.

但在 2024 年第二和第三季度，平均每小时工资的年增长率不到 4%，而生产率则增长了 2% 左右。

The math is pretty simple—4 percent wage growth minus the 2 percent gain from higher productivity tells you that wage growth is consistent with bringing inflation down to 2 percent.

数学很简单——4% 的工资增长减去生产率提高带来的 2% 的收益，告诉你工资增长与将通货膨胀率降至 2% 是一致的。

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While I am pleased at how well the labor market has held up under restrictive monetary policy, I am less pleased about what the data have been telling us the past couple of months about inflation.

虽然我对劳动力市场在限制性货币政策下的表现感到满意，但我对过去几个月数据告诉我们的通胀情况不太满意。

After making a lot of progress over the past year and a half, the recent data indicate that progress may be stalling.

在过去一年半取得了很大进展之后，最近的数据表明进展可能会陷入停滞。

Inflation based on the Commerce Department's measure of prices for PCE rose more than expected in September and October and so did "core" PCE inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices and is a better guide to future inflation.

基于商务部 PCE 价格衡量标准的通胀在 9 月和 10 月的涨幅超过预期，“核心”PCE 通胀也是如此，其中排除了波动较大的食品和能源价格，是未来通胀的更好指南。

Three-month annualized core PCE inflation has risen over the past two months, while six-month annualized inflation has made only a small improvement.

过去两个月，三个月年化核心个人消费支出通胀有所上升，而六个月年化通胀仅小幅改善。

These rates now stand at 2.8 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively.

目前这些利率分别为 2.8% 和 2.3%。

These recent readings have contributed to 12-month core PCE inflation of 2.8 percent in October.

这些最新数据导致 10 月份 12 个月核心 PCE 通胀率为 2.8%。

If we compare components of core inflation this October with last October, we see 12-month housing services inflation has softened and goods inflation has moved to slight deflation, but there has been an increase in nonmarket core services excluding housing.

如果我们将今年10月的核心通胀组成部分与去年10月进行比较，我们会发现12个月的住房服务通胀已经放缓，商品通胀已转向小幅通货紧缩，但除住房之外的非市场核心服务有所增加。

Overall, I feel like an MMA fighter who keeps getting inflation in a choke hold, waiting for it to tap out yet it keeps slipping out of my grasp at the last minute.

总的来说，我感觉自己就像一名综合格斗选手，不断地让充气窒息，等待它消失，但它却在最后一刻从我的掌握中溜走。

But let me assure you that submission is inevitable—inflation isn't getting out of the octagon.

但让我向你保证，屈服是不可避免的——通货膨胀不会脱离八角形。

While the recent increase and the level of inflation raise concerns that it may be getting stuck above the FOMC's 2 percent goal, let me emphasize that this is a risk but not a certainty.

虽然近期的通胀上升和通胀水平引发了人们的担忧，即通胀可能会陷入联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 2% 的目标之上，但我要强调的是，这是一种风险，但并非确定性。

I take the recent inflation data seriously, but we saw a similar uptick in inflation a year ago that was followed by a continued decline, so I also don't want to overreact.

我认真对待最近的通胀数据，但我们一年前看到了类似的通胀上升，随后持续下降，所以我也不想反应过度。

And I expect housing services inflation to continue to moderate and I do not take much signal from the elevated inflation for other non-market services.

我预计住房服务通胀将继续放缓，并且我没有从其他非市场服务通胀上升中得到太多信号。

Now let me turn to the implications for monetary policy based on my assessment of the underlying economic outlook.

现在让我根据对基本经济前景的评估来谈谈对货币政策的影响。

While some near-term aspects of the outlook may be a little unclear, something that is clear is the direction for monetary policy and our policy rate over the medium term, which is down.

虽然前景的一些近期方面可能有点不清楚，但明确的是货币政策的方向以及我们中期政策利率的下降。

This downward trajectory reflects the fact that the level of aggregate demand in the economy, relative to supply, has moderated significantly over the past year—it is plainly visible in the data on spending and the labor market.

这种下降轨迹反映了这样一个事实，即经济中的总需求水平相对于供给而言，在过去一年中显着放缓——这在支出和劳动力市场数据中显而易见。

Inflation over that time is also significantly lower, so it makes sense to be moving policy rates toward a more neutral setting.

这段时间内的通胀也显着降低，因此将政策利率转向更加中性的环境是有意义的。

And there is a ways to go.

还有很长的路要走。

In September, the median of the projections of FOMC participants was that the federal funds rate would be 3.4 percent at the end of next year, which is about 100 basis points lower than it is today.

9月份，FOMC参与者的预测中值为明年年底联邦基金利率为3.4%，比目前低约100个基点。

That number can and probably will change over time, but whatever the destination, there will be a variety of ways to get there, with the speed and timing of cuts determined by economic conditions we encounter on the way.

这个数字可能而且可能会随着时间的推移而改变，但无论目的地是什么，都会有多种方式到达那里，削减的速度和时间取决于我们在途中遇到的经济状况。

The motivation for continuing to cut the policy rate at the FOMC's next meeting begins with how restrictive the current setting is.

联邦公开市场委员会下次会议继续降息的动机源于当前环境的限制性。

After we cut by 75 basis points, I believe the evidence is strong that policy continues to be significantly restrictive and that cutting again will only mean that we aren't pressing on the brake pedal quite as hard.

在我们降息 75 个基点之后，我相信有强有力的证据表明政策继续受到大幅限制，而再次降息只会意味着我们不再那么用力踩刹车踏板。

Although monthly core inflation has flattened out in recent months, there is no indication that the pace of price increases for key service categories such as housing and nonmarket services should remain at their current levels or increase.

尽管近几个月来月度核心通胀已趋于平稳，但没有迹象表明住房和非市场服务等关键服务类别的价格上涨步伐应保持在当前水平或增加。

Another factor that supports a further rate cut is that the labor market appears to finally be in balance, and we should aim to keep it that way.

支持进一步降息的另一个因素是劳动力市场似乎最终达到平衡，我们应该致力于保持这种状态。

Conversely, based on what we know today, one could argue that there is a case for skipping a rate cut at the next meeting.

相反，根据我们今天所了解的情况，人们可能会认为有理由在下次会议上跳过降息。

Monthly readings on inflation have moved up noticeably recently, and we don't know whether this uptick in inflation will persist, or reverse, as we saw a year ago.

通货膨胀的月度数据最近明显上升，我们不知道通货膨胀的上升是否会持续下去，还是会像一年前那样逆转。

Due to strikes and hurricanes, recent labor market data are giving us a cloudy view of the true state of the labor market that won't be clearer for a couple of months.

由于罢工和飓风，最近的劳动力市场数据让我们对劳动力市场的真实状况有了一个模糊的认识，而且几个月内都不会变得更加清晰。

As a result, one could advocate for not changing the policy rate at our upcoming meeting and adjusting our policy stance in a measured way going forward.

因此，人们可以主张在即将举行的会议上不要改变政策利率，并在未来谨慎地调整我们的政策立场。

In fact, if policymakers' estimates of the target range at the end of next year are close to correct, then the Committee will most likely be skipping rate cuts multiple times on the way to that destination.

事实上，如果政策制定者对明年年底目标范围的估计接近正确，那么委员会很可能在实现这一目标的过程中多次跳过降息。

In deciding which of these two approaches to take at the FOMC's next meeting, I will be watching additional data very closely.

在决定在 FOMC 下次会议上采取这两种方法中的哪一种时，我将非常密切地关注其他数据。

Tomorrow, we get the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

明天，我们将收到劳工部的职位空缺和劳动力流动率调查。

On Friday, we get the employment report, which, as I noted, may have misleading payroll data.

周五，我们将收到就业报告，正如我所指出的，该报告可能包含误导性的工资数据。

Then next week, we get consumer and producer price indexes for November, which will allow a good estimate of PCE inflation for the month.

然后下周，我们将获得 11 月份的消费者和生产者价格指数，这将有助于很好地估计该月的 PCE 通胀。

Finally, on the first day of the FOMC meeting, we receive retail sales data for November that will give us an idea of how consumer spending is holding up.

最后，在 FOMC 会议的第一天，我们收到 11 月份的零售销售数据，这将使我们了解消费者支出的情况如何。

All of that information will help me decide whether to cut or skip.

所有这些信息将帮助我决定是剪切还是跳过。

As of today, I am leaning toward continuing the work we have started in returning monetary policy to a more neutral setting.

截至今天，我倾向于继续我们已经开始的工作，使货币政策恢复到更加中性的环境。

Policy is still restrictive enough that an additional cut at our next meeting will not dramatically change the stance of monetary policy and allow ample scope to later slow the pace of rate cuts, if needed, to maintain progress toward our inflation target.

政策仍然具有足够的限制性，因此我们下次会议上的进一步降息不会大幅改变货币政策立场，并为以后在必要时放慢降息步伐留出足够的空间，以保持实现通胀目标的进展。

That said, if the data we receive between today and the next meeting surprise in a way that suggests our forecasts of slowing inflation and a moderating but still-solid economy are wrong, then I will be supportive of holding the policy rate constant.

也就是说，如果我们从今天到下次会议之间收到的数据出人意​​料，表明我们对通胀放缓和经济放缓但仍然稳健的预测是错误的，那么我将支持维持政策利率不变。

I will be watching the incoming data closely over the next couple weeks to help me make my decision as to what path to take.

我将在接下来的几周内密切关注传入的数据，以帮助我决定采取什么路径。

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The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee.

这里表达的观点是我自己的观点，不一定是我在联邦公开市场委员会的同事的观点。

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A similar story holds true if one looks at growth in labor productivity and hourly compensation from the Productivity and Cost release.

如果从生产力和成本发布的数据来看劳动生产率和小时薪酬的增长，类似的情况也成立。

Here the wedge between the two series has narrowed over this time period.

在此期间，两个系列之间的差距已经缩小。

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