Centralized and Decentralized Finance: Substitutes or Complements?

At the Vienna Macroeconomics Workshop, Institute of Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria

奥地利维也纳高级研究所维也纳宏观经济学研讨会

Thank you for inviting me to speak today.

感谢您今天邀请我发言。

1 I have participated in this conference for nearly 20 years and have often presented my research on monetary theory, banking, and payments.

1 我参加这个会议已经近 20 年了，经常介绍我在货币理论、银行业和支付方面的研究。

So, I believe this is the right audience to speak to regarding the role of centralized finance and the emergence of decentralized finance, or defi for short.

因此，我相信这是谈论中心化金融的作用和去中心化金融（简称 defi）的出现的正确听众。

Over the past few years, there has been a lot of attention and work on defi, which will be a major focus of my remarks.

过去几年，defi 得到了很多关注和工作，这将是我演讲的一个重点。

Many argue that defi will replace traditional centralized finance while others argue that it merely extends traditional finance methods and trading activities onto new platforms.

许多人认为，defi 将取代传统的中心化金融，而另一些人则认为，它只是将传统金融方法和交易活动延伸到新平台上。

It is in this sense that I want to address the question of whether centralized finance and defi are substitutes or complements to each other.

正是从这个意义上，我想解决中心化金融和defi到底是替代还是互补的问题。

Advances associated with defi have the potential to profoundly affect financial market trading.

与 defi 相关的进步有可能深刻影响金融市场交易。

While I believe these advances could lead to efficiency gains, I recognize the significant value that has been delivered for centuries by financial intermediaries and through centralized financial markets.

虽然我相信这些进步可以带来效率提升，但我也认识到几个世纪以来金融中介机构和中心化金融市场所带来的巨大价值。

Before I share my views on the promise of these new technologies, let me tell you where I'm coming from on these issues.

在我分享我对这些新技术前景的看法之前，让我先告诉你我对这些问题的看法。

I am an economist, and so my first inclination is to think about the underlying economics driving an issue.

我是一名经济学家，所以我的第一反应是思考驱动问题的根本经济学原理。

But to understand the value proposition of defi, it is useful to first recall why centralized financial market trading arose in the first place.

但要理解 defi 的价值主张，首先回顾一下中心化金融市场交易最初出现的原因是有用的。

Centralized finance clearly provides benefits to people, but obviously also comes with some costs.

中心化金融显然给人们带来了好处，但显然也带来了一些成本。

I am going to take a few minutes to discuss those benefits and costs before turning to the question at hand.

在讨论手头的问题之前，我将花几分钟时间讨论这些好处和成本。

Let's start with the economics of trading.

让我们从交易经济学开始。

Most financial trades are "pairwise" in that the seller of an object needs to find a buyer of that exact object.

大多数金融交易都是“成对”的，​​因为物品的卖方需要找到该物品的买家。

The problem is that it is often complicated, costly, and time-consuming to search for a buyer.

问题是寻找买家往往很复杂、成本高昂且耗时。

This gives rise to the need for someone to step in and help buyers and sellers match in a faster and less costly manner.

这就需要有人介入并帮助买家和卖家以更快、更低成本的方式进行匹配。

In short, there is a profit opportunity for someone to intermediate the trade.

简而言之，有人可以通过中介交易获利。

Another name for intermediaries is middlemen.

中介机构的另一个名称是中间人。

Why would we pay a middleman?

为什么我们要付钱给中间人？

In their paper from nearly 40 years ago, Ariel Rubenstein and Asher Wolinsky described it eloquently: "What makes the middlemen's activity possible is the time-consuming nature of the trade, which enables middlemen to extract surplus in return for shortening the time period that sellers and buyers have to wait for a transaction." 2

Ariel Rubenstein 和 Asher Wolinsky 在他们近 40 年前的论文中雄辩地描述了这一点：“中间商的活动之所以成为可能，是因为交易的耗时性，这使得中间商能够榨取盈余，以换取缩短买卖双方等待交易的时间。” 2

Let me contextualize the value of middlemen with an example I used for years when teaching money and banking.

让我用我多年来在教授货币和银行业务时使用的一个例子来说明中间商的价值。

Suppose you had some extra income from saving and wanted to lend it out to earn interest.

假设您通过储蓄获得了一些额外收入，并且想将其贷出以赚取利息。

How would you do that?

你会怎么做？

First, you would have to advertise that you had funds to lend.

首先，您必须宣传您有资金可以借出。

Then, you would have to wait for the right person who needed that exact amount of funds, which could be a long time.

然后，您将不得不等待需要确切金额资金的合适人选，这可能需要很长时间。

Once you met the right person, you would have to negotiate when repayment would occur.

一旦你遇到了合适的人，你就必须协商何时还款。

Next, you would need to know a lot of information about the person receiving your funds and the likelihood you would get repaid.

接下来，您需要了解有关接收您资金的人以及您获得偿还的可能性的大量信息。

This is needed to assess the risk of the transaction and the compensation you would need to give up your funds.

这是评估交易风险以及放弃资金所需的补偿所必需的。

You would also need a lot of legal advice to draw up a contract and stipulate how the contract would be enforced under a range of conditions.

您还需要大量的法律建议来起草合同并规定如何在一系列条件下执行合同。

Finally, since you are the sole source of funding, you will bear the entire cost of a default.

最后，由于您是唯一的资金来源，因此您将承担违约的全部费用。

It should be clear that this would be a daunting exercise for most people and explains why they would turn to a middleman who specializes in this type of activity to do all this on their behalf.

应该清楚的是，对于大多数人来说，这将是一项艰巨的任务，并解释了为什么他们会求助于专门从事此类活动的中间人来代表他们完成所有这些工作。

It is for these reasons that banks arose as early as in ancient Mesopotamia to carry out some of these functions.

正是由于这些原因，银行早在古代美索不达米亚就出现了，以履行其中一些职能。

3 Similar issues arise when it comes to other ways of transferring resources from one person to another, as occurs from non-bank debt, equities and insurance contracts.

3 当涉及将资源从一个人转移到另一个人的其他方式时，例如非银行债务、股票和保险合同，也会出现类似的问题。

Many point to trades of shares in the Dutch East India Trading Company in Amsterdam in the 1660s as the origins of the first modern stock exchange.

许多人认为 1660 年代阿姆斯特丹荷兰东印度贸易公司的股票交易是第一个现代证券交易所的起源。

Lloyds of London was founded as a means of pooling funds to share risk and return in the shipping industry, thus becoming the first insurance firm.

伦敦劳合社的成立是为了汇集资金，分担航运业的风险和回报，从而成为第一家保险公司。

The fact that similar arrangements still exist centuries later is a testament to the value of intermediation and centralized financial trading.

几个世纪后，类似的安排仍然存在，这一事实证明了中介和中心化金融交易的价值。

However, these arrangements are not without drawbacks.

然而，这些安排并非没有缺点。

An obvious drawback of intermediation from the perspective of those wishing to trade is that those middlemen must get paid.

从那些希望进行交易的人的角度来看，中介的一个明显缺点是这些中间商必须获得报酬。

That is, there are transaction costs.

也就是说，有交易成本。

Another drawback of intermediation is that you typically must turn over control of your assets, such as savings or stocks, to the intermediary for them to be traded.

中介的另一个缺点是，您通常必须将资产（例如储蓄或股票）的控制权移交给中介才能进行交易。

This creates a classic "principal-agent" problem whereby incentives between the principal—you—and the agent—the intermediary—may not be aligned.

这就产生了一个典型的“委托人-代理人”问题，即委托人（您）和代理人（中介人）之间的激励可能不一致。

That can raise concerns about custody arrangements and recourse to regain control of one's assets.

这可能会引起人们对托管安排和重新获得资产控制权的担忧。

Intermediation also requires recordkeeping arrangements that customers can trust accurately reflect their true holdings.

中介还需要客户可以信赖的记录保存安排，准确反映其真实持有量。

In other words, centralized finance requires a substantial amount of trust.

换句话说，中心化金融需要大量的信任。

With all that in mind, let me turn to how and why technological innovations have given rise to defi.

考虑到所有这些，让我谈谈技术创新如何以及为何催生了 defi。

In a capitalist system, the existence of profits provides incentives for others to enter the market, offer a better product, and compete away any excess profits.

在资本主义制度中，利润的存在激励其他人进入市场，提供更好的产品，并竞争掉任何超额利润。

This can be done by the creation of new financial firms that can provide the same or better service at a lower cost.

这可以通过创建新的金融公司来实现，这些公司可以以更低的成本提供相同或更好的服务。

Often that occurs through innovations and exploiting new technologies.

这通常是通过创新和利用新技术来实现的。

Think about how the invention of the telegraph and the telephone revolutionized trading.

想想电报和电话的发明如何彻底改变了交易。

More recently, the advent of the internet further advanced the ease and speed of financial trading.

最近，互联网的出现进一步提高了金融交易的便利性和速度。

These are examples of how financial trading has evolved over time.

这些是金融交易如何随时间演变的例子。

And the next wave of innovations in financial market trading could be driven by technological advances that alleviate some potential drawbacks of the centralized approach.

金融市场交易的下一波创新可能会受到技术进步的推动，这些技术进步可以减轻中心化方法的一些潜在缺点。

Often broad technological advances emanate from narrower efforts to design products or processes that solve specific problems.

通常，广泛的技术进步源于设计解决特定问题的产品或流程的较小努力。

For example, one technology used to support portable home appliances like vacuum cleaners was originally developed to support the space program.

例如，一项用于支持吸尘器等便携式家用电器的技术最初是为了支持太空计划而开发的。

4 Similarly, the development of crypto-assets led to the development of technologies that are fueling possibilities in defi.

4 同样，加密资产的发展带动了技术的发展，从而推动了 defi 的发展。

We don't have enough time for me to cover the full history of crypto-assets, but I will focus on several key elements that have affected the evolution toward defi.

我们没有足够的时间来涵盖加密资产的完整历史，但我将重点关注影响 defi 演变的几个关键要素。

An early crypto-asset—Bitcoin—was developed to function in a world in which trust among individuals did not exist.

早期的加密资产——比特币——是为了在个人之间不存在信任的世界中发挥作用而开发的。

Rather than relying on intermediaries which require trust, Bitcoin relied on technology to facilitate trade.

比特币不依赖需要信任的中介机构，而是依靠技术来促进贸易。

Bitcoin was also designed for privacy.

比特币也是为了隐私而设计的。

No one would know who was buying or selling Bitcoin.

没有人知道谁在买卖比特币。

This was achieved through cryptographic technology and private keys.

这是通过加密技术和私钥实现的。

In addition, it allowed individuals to maintain control of their crypto-assets throughout the entire trading process.

此外，它还允许个人在整个交易过程中保持对其加密资产的控制。

That is, they no longer had to delegate control to others.

也就是说，他们不再需要将控制权委托给其他人。

Finally, all records were kept on a form of distributed ledger called a blockchain, which has design features that promote transparency and are censorship-proof.

最后，所有记录都保存在一种称为区块链的分布式账本中，该账本具有提高透明度且不受审查的设计特点。

No individual or government could destroy the records of trades or take ownership of the objects traded.

任何个人或政府都不得销毁交易记录或取得交易物品的所​​有权。

With that history in mind and before we delve into the question of whether defi and centralized finance are substitutes or complements, I think it is useful to carefully define some terms.

考虑到这段历史，在我们深入研究 defi 和中心化金融是替代品还是补充的问题之前，我认为仔细定义一些术语是有用的。

This will make sure we're all talking about the same things.

这将确保我们都在谈论相同的事情。

As I described in a speech last year, I think of the crypto ecosystem as consisting of three parts:

正如我在去年的一次演讲中所描述的，我认为加密生态系统由三个部分组成：

It is easy to see how the emergence of these technologies could lead one to think of defi as a substitute for centralized finance.

很容易看出这些技术的出现如何导致人们将去中心化金融视为中心化金融的替代品。

For example, the technologies are allowing for individuals to trade assets without giving up control of those assets to an intermediary—a critical distinction with centralized finance.

例如，这些技术允许个人交易资产，而无需将这些资产的控制权交给中介——这是与中心化金融的一个重要区别。

However, there are other uses emerging from these technologies that look more like complements to centralized finance.

然而，这些技术还出现了其他用途，看起来更像是中心化金融的补充。

For example, distributed ledger technology, or DLT, may be an efficient and faster way to do recordkeeping in a 24/7 trading world.

例如，分布式账本技术（DLT）可能是在 24/7 交易世界中进行记录保存的一种高效且快捷的方式。

We already see several financial institutions experimenting with DLT for traditional repo trading that occurs 24/7.

我们已经看到多家金融机构正在尝试使用 DLT 进行 24/7 的传统回购交易。

But before these ledgers can be used to facilitate transactions in traditional assets—like debt, equity, and real estate—these assets must be tokenized.

但在这些分类账可以用来促进债务、股权和房地产等传统资产的交易之前，这些资产必须被代币化。

Undertaking the process to tokenize assets and use distributed ledgers like blockchain can speed up transfers of assets and take advantage of another innovation: smart contracts.

进行资产代币化并使用区块链等分布式账本可以加快资产转移并利用另一项创新：智能合约。

Rather than relying on each party to separately carry out the transaction, smart contracts can effectively combine multiple legs of a transaction into a single unified act executed by a smart contract.

智能合约不依赖各方单独执行交易，而是可以有效地将交易的多个分支组合成由智能合约执行的单个统一行为。

This can provide value as it can mitigate risks associated with settlement and counterparty risks by ensuring the buyer will not pay if the seller does not deliver.

这可以提供价值，因为它可以通过确保卖方不交货时买方不会付款来减轻与结算和交易对手风险相关的风险。

While these efforts are still in early stages, the functionality could expand to a broad set of financial activities.

虽然这些努力仍处于早期阶段，但其功能可以扩展到更广泛的金融活动。

The bottom line is that things like DLT, tokenization, and smart contracts are just technologies for trading that can be used in defi or also to improve efficiency in centralized finance.

最重要的是，DLT、代币化和智能合约等技术只是可用于 defi 的交易技术，也可用于提高中心化金融的效率。

That is why I see them as complements.

这就是为什么我将它们视为补充。

Stablecoins are another important innovation in defi.

稳定币是 defi 的另一项重要创新。

Stablecoins were created in the crypto universe in hopes of providing a "safe" asset with a stable value for trading.

稳定币是在加密世界中创建的，希望为交易提供具有稳定价值的“安全”资产。

Nearly all stablecoins are pegged to the U.S. dollar one-for-one.

几乎所有稳定币都与美元一一挂钩。

They provide an opportunity for buyers and sellers to transact in a decentralized fashion with the stablecoin used as the settlement instrument.

它们为买家和卖家提供了使用稳定币作为结算工具以去中心化方式进行交易的机会。

Because they are effectively digital currency, stablecoins can reduce the need for payment intermediaries and thereby reduce costs of payments globally.

由于稳定币实际上是数字货币，因此可以减少对支付中介的需求，从而降低全球支付成本。

But their safety is not assured.

但他们的安全并没有保障。

History is replete with cases in which synthetic dollars became subject to runs.

历史上充斥着合成美元遭受挤兑的案例。

Stablecoins thus face all of the same issues any substitute for genuine U.S. dollars faces.

因此，稳定币面临着与真正的美元替代品所面临的所有相同问题。

If appropriate guardrails can be erected to minimize run risk and mitigate other risks, such as their potential use in illicit finance, then stablecoins may have benefits in payments and by serving as a safe asset on a variety of new trading platforms.

如果能够建立适当的护栏以最大程度地降低运行风险并减轻其他风险（例如其在非法金融中的潜在用途），那么稳定币可能会在支付方面以及在各种新交易平台上作为安全资产发挥作用。

These technologies will almost certainly lead to efficiency gains over time, but as they develop, we should think carefully about their role in the broader financial landscape.

随着时间的推移，这些技术几乎肯定会带来效率的提高，但随着它们的发展，我们应该仔细考虑它们在更广泛的金融领域中的作用。

Is it really possible to completely decentralize finance using these technologies?

使用这些技术真的有可能完全去中心化金融吗？

The answer is obviously "no." Intermediation is still valuable for the average person, and we see this by the existence of trading exchanges in the crypto world.

答案显然是“不”。中介对于普通人来说仍然有价值，我们通过加密世界中交易交易所的存在看到了这一点。

All these platforms involve giving custody of one's crypto-assets to an intermediary, who conducts trades on behalf of the client.

所有这些平台都涉及将加密资产托管给中介机构，由中介机构代表客户进行交易。

This reintroduces the need for trust in these platforms just as trust is needed in modern banking systems.

这重新引入了对这些平台的信任需求，就像现代银行系统需要信任一样。

Returning to the technologies behind defi, one must ask whether there are unique risks associated with the use of these technologies.

回到 defi 背后的技术，我们必须问一下使用这些技术是否存在独特的风险。

If so, what is the nature of these risks?

如果是，这些风险的性质是什么？

Are they contained to just those people directly engaging with the technologies, or could there be broader spillovers to society?

它们是否仅限于那些直接参与技术的人，或者是否会对社会产生更广泛的溢出效应？

For example, can these technologies increase the risk of inadvertently providing funds to bad actors?

例如，这些技术是否会增加无意中向不良行为者提供资金的风险？

In centralized finance there are regulations that require banks to know who their clients are.

在集中式金融中，有规定要求银行知道他们的客户是谁。

Are similar rules and regulations needed around some of these new technologies?

这些新技术是否需要类似的规则和规定？

When it comes to our financial plumbing, which affects every person or business in one way or another, I think a balanced view of expeditious disruption and long-term sustainability is merited.

当谈到我们的金融管道时，它以这样或那样的方式影响着每个人或每个企业，我认为对快速颠覆和长期可持续性采取平衡的看法是值得的。

So where does that leave us?

那么我们会怎样呢？

Ultimately, I believe that advances in technology have the potential to drive efficiency gains in finance, just as technological innovation has done for centuries.

最终，我相信技术进步有潜力推动金融效率的提高，就像几个世纪以来技术创新所做的那样。

While there are certain services emerging through defi that cannot be provided by centralized finance, the technological innovations stemming from defi are largely complementary to centralized finance.

虽然通过defi出现的某些服务是中心化金融无法提供的，但defi带来的技术创新在很大程度上与中心化金融是互补的。

They have the potential to improve centralized finance, thereby increasing the significant value that financial intermediaries and centralized financial markets deliver.

它们有潜力改善集中式金融，从而增加金融中介机构和集中式金融市场提供的重要价值。

I look forward to seeing the continued evolution of financial technology and the benefits that evolution will bring to the households and businesses served by the financial system.

我期待看到金融技术的持续发展，以及这种发展将为金融体系所服务的家庭和企业带来的好处。

1.

1.

I would like to dedicate these remarks to an old friend and longtime participant of this conference, Paul Klein, who passed away unexpectedly two months ago.

谨以此文献给本次会议的老朋友、长期参与者保罗·克莱因（Paul Klein），他两个月前意外去世。

The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee.

这里表达的观点是我自己的观点，不一定是我在美联储委员会或联邦公开市场委员会的同事的观点。

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2.

2.

See Ariel Rubinstein and Asher Wolinsky, "Middlemen," The Quarterly Journal of Economics 102 (August 1987): 581–93, https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/102/3/581/1887969. Return to text

参见 Ariel Rubinstein 和 Asher Wolinsky，“中间人”，经济学季刊 102（1987 年 8 月）：581-93，https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/102/3/581/1887969。返回正文

3.

3.

See Benjamin Bromberg, " The origin of banking: religious finance in Babylonia (PDF) ," The Journal of Economic History 2 (May 1942): 77–88.

参见 Benjamin Bromberg，“银行业的起源：巴比伦的宗教金融 (PDF)”，《经济史杂志》2（1942 年 5 月）：77-88。

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4.

4.

See National Aeronautics and Space Administration, " Spinoff from a Moon Tool (PDF) ," January 1, 1981.

请参阅美国国家航空航天局，“Spinoff from a Moon Tool (PDF)”，1981 年 1 月 1 日。

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5.

5.

See Christopher J.

参见克里斯托弗·J.

Waller, " Thoughts on the Crypto Ecosystem " (speech at Global Interdependence Center Conference: Digital Money, Decentralized Finance, and the Puzzle of Crypto, La Jolla, CA, February 10, 2023).

Waller，“对加密生态系统的思考”（在全球相互依赖中心会议上的演讲：数字货币、去中心化金融和加密之谜，加利福尼亚州拉霍亚，2023 年 2 月 10 日）。

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