Approaching Policymaking Pragmatically
At the Forum Club of the Palm Beaches, West Palm Beach, Florida
佛罗里达州西棕榈滩棕榈滩论坛俱乐部
Good afternoon.
下午好。
1 It is a pleasure to join you for today's meeting of the Forum Club of the Palm Beaches.
1 很高兴参加今天棕榈滩论坛俱乐部的会议。
It is truly humbling for me to be invited to speak to your membership, in the company of the many influential leaders, authors, and other public figures this organization has hosted since its founding in 1976.
能够受邀在本组织自 1976 年成立以来接待过的许多有影响力的领导人、作家和其他公众人物的陪伴下向您的会员发表讲话，我感到非常荣幸。
Before turning to the main topic of my remarks today, I want to briefly share with you a bit about my background.
在进入我今天演讲的主题之前，我想向大家简单介绍一下我的背景。
I am one of the longest serving members currently on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Board), having served as a Board member since November 26, 2018.
我是目前在美联储理事会（董事会）任职时间最长的成员之一，自 2018 年 11 月 26 日起担任董事会成员。
As a member of the Board, I am a permanent voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and serve in other capacities—I lead the Board committees on smaller and community banks and on consumer and community affairs and serve as a member on other committees that broadly address supervision and regulation and payments.
作为董事会成员，我是联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 的永久投票成员，并担任其他职务 - 我领导小型和社区银行以及消费者和社区事务的董事会委员会，并担任广泛处理监督、监管和支付问题的其他委员会的成员。
I also provide input into the full range of matters that come before the Board.
我还对董事会审议的所有事项提供意见。
I am the first Governor appointed to fill the role created by Congress for someone with demonstrated primary experience working in or supervising community banks, banks with less than $10 billion in assets.
我是第一位被任命担任国会指定职位的行长，该职位由具有在社区银行（资产低于 100 亿美元的银行）工作或监管的主要经验的人担任。
2 I have been both a banker, working in the community bank owned and operated by my family since 1882, and a bank supervisor—as the Kansas State Bank Commissioner.
2 我既是一名银行家，自 1882 年以来就在我家族拥有和经营的社区银行工作，也是一名银行主管——担任堪萨斯州银行专员。
Early in my career, I spent almost a decade working in public service in several federal government roles, including setting up the Department of Homeland Security after 9/11 and as a Deputy Assistant Secretary and policy advisor to the first Homeland Security Secretary, Tom Ridge.
在我职业生涯的早期，我在公共服务领域工作了近十年，担任过多个联邦政府职务，包括在 9/11 事件后成立国土安全部，以及担任首任国土安全部部长汤姆·里奇 (Tom Ridge) 的副助理国务卿和政策顾问。
I also served as a counsel on several U.S. House Committees, and as a staff member for the former U.S. Senator from Kansas, Bob Dole.
我还担任过几个美国众议院委员会的顾问，以及来自堪萨斯州的前美国参议员鲍勃·多尔的工作人员。
These experiences have provided me with a uniquely broad perspective about the role of government and the functioning of the U.S. economy—from the view of a regulated business, an executive branch agency, the legislative branch, and state and federal regulatory agencies.
这些经历使我从受监管企业、行政部门、立法部门以及州和联邦监管机构的角度，对政府的作用和美国经济的运作有了独特而广阔的视角。
Throughout my career, but particularly in my current role as a member of the Board of Governors, I have approached my responsibilities in an independent way, relying on facts, analysis, my own experience and judgment, and the pursuit of the congressionally mandated goals that guide the work of the Board.
在我的整个职业生涯中，特别是在我目前担任理事会成员期间，我以独立的方式履行自己的职责，依靠事实、分析、我自己的经验和判断，并追求国会规定的指导理事会工作的目标。
In some cases, this approach has led me to depart from the views of my colleagues.
在某些情况下，这种做法导致我偏离了同事的观点。
At its September meeting, the FOMC voted to lower the target range for the federal funds rate, for the first time since we began tightening to combat inflation, by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent.
在 9 月份的会议上，联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 投票决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间下调 1/2 个百分点，至 4-3/4 至 5%，这是我们开始紧缩以对抗通胀以来的首次。
I dissented from that decision, preferring instead to lower the target range by 1/4 percentage point.
我不同意这个决定，而是宁愿将目标范围降低 1/4 个百分点。
In my statement published after the meeting, I agreed with the Committee's assessment that, given the progress we have seen since the middle of 2023 on both lowering inflation and cooling the labor market, it was appropriate to reflect this progress by beginning the process of recalibrating the policy stance toward a more neutral setting.
在会后发表的声明中，我同意委员会的评估，即鉴于我们自 2023 年中期以来在降低通胀和冷却劳动力市场方面取得的进展，通过开始重新调整政策立场以实现更加中性的环境来反映这一进展是适当的。
As my statement noted, I preferred a smaller initial cut in the policy rate.
正如我的声明所指出的，我更倾向于政策利率的初步降幅较小。
With inflation continuing to hover well above our 2 percent goal, I saw the risk that the Committee's large policy action might be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on our price-stability mandate.
由于通胀继续徘徊在远高于我们 2% 目标的情况下，我看到了委员会的大规模政策行动可能被解读为过早宣布我们价格稳定任务胜利的风险。
In addition, with the U.S. economy remaining strong, moving the policy rate down too quickly, in my view, would carry the risk of stoking demand unnecessarily and potentially reigniting inflationary pressures.
此外，在我看来，在美国经济依然强劲的情况下，过快地下调政策利率将带来不必要地刺激需求并可能重新引发通胀压力的风险。
My dissent was notable in that the last dissenting vote from a Fed Board member on an FOMC vote occurred nearly 20 years ago.
我的反对意见值得注意，因为上次美联储理事会成员对 FOMC 投票投反对票是在近 20 年前。
My dissent was guided by my view and interpretation of the available data and my understanding of the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices, which I will discuss more in a moment.
我的反对意见是基于我对现有数据的看法和解释，以及我对美联储充分就业和稳定物价双重使命的理解，我稍后将对此进行更多讨论。
Everyone in this room knows that experience is important.
在座的每个人都知道经验很重要。
My experiences have shaped and reinforced my views on how policymakers can best serve the public—narrowly, including in monetary policy decisionmaking and the regulation of the banking industry, but also more broadly in thinking about policymaking in support of an agency's mission balanced with its extensive impact on the affected industry and the U.S. economy.
我的经历塑造并强化了我对政策制定者如何最好地为公众服务的观点——狭义上包括货币政策决策和银行业监管，但更广泛地思考政策制定，以支持机构的使命，平衡其对受影响行业和美国经济的广泛影响。
A Pragmatic Approach to Policymaking A Goal-Oriented Approach In the past, I have discussed the role of policymaking from the perspective of a Federal Reserve Board member.
务实的政策制定方法 目标导向的方法 过去，我从联邦储备委员会成员的角度讨论了政策制定的作用。
But taking a step back, there are some broader themes relevant to agency policymaking more generally, themes that are useful beyond the context of the Federal Reserve.
但退一步来说，有一些更广泛的主题与更广泛的机构决策相关，这些主题在美联储的背景下也有用。
At a basic level, I think of this as a pragmatic approach.
从根本上讲，我认为这是一种务实的方法。
It requires tradeoffs to balance regulation while also not inhibiting economic growth.
它需要权衡以平衡监管，同时又不抑制经济增长。
The first question I like to ask when confronted with a policy issue is, "Why are we here?" You may recognize this question from Philosophy 101, but this question also applies to the exercise of executive authority by regulatory agencies.
当遇到政策问题时，我想问的第一个问题是“我们为什么在这里？”你可能从哲学101中认识到这个问题，但这个问题也适用于监管机构行使行政权力。
The Federal Reserve has extensive responsibilities, and equally extensive powers, but it must exercise these powers only in furtherance of specific goals established by statute.
美联储拥有广泛的责任和同样广泛的权力，但它只能在促进法规规定的具体目标时行使这些权力。
The sheer scope of the Fed's powers can present a temptation to go beyond the statutory authority.
美联储权力的庞大范围可能会带来超越法定权力的诱惑。
For example, to play a more active role in the allocation of credit, or to displace other sources of bank funding even when market sources of liquidity are functioning well.
例如，在信贷配置中发挥更积极的作用，或者在市场流动性来源运转良好的情况下取代其他银行资金来源。
It could also include the temptation to venture into policy matters unrelated to the Fed's responsibilities that are better addressed by Congress or other policymakers (here, a push for banking sector climate change related regulation comes to mind).
它还可能包括冒险涉足与美联储职责无关的政策问题，这些问题最好由国会或其他政策制定者解决（在这里，我想到了推动银行业气候变化相关监管）。
The goals Congress has laid out for the Fed are complicated and important.
国会为美联储制定的目标既复杂又重要。
Congress should not expect the Federal Reserve, or any other agency for that matter, to solve problems beyond that agency's limited purpose.
国会不应期望美联储或任何其他机构解决超出该机构有限目的的问题。
Doing so would contravene the intent and authority of Congress.
这样做将违背国会的意图和权威。
To begin, I will provide a few concrete examples of how the starting point for policy is the agency's mission, including in: (1) the execution of monetary policy, and (2) the conduct of banking regulation and supervision.
首先，我将提供一些具体例子来说明政策的出发点是该机构的使命，包括：（1）货币政策的执行，以及（2）银行监管的实施。
In conducting monetary policy, Congress has given us the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
在实施货币政策时，国会赋予我们最大限度就业和价格稳定的双重使命。
Achieving these goals has often proven challenging, particularly over the last several years, as these policy objectives can sometimes be in tension.
事实证明，实现这些目标往往具有挑战性，特别是在过去几年中，因为这些政策目标有时可能会处于紧张状态。
Policy actions to tame inflation, like raising the target range for the federal funds rate, can have an adverse effect on employment.
抑制通货膨胀的政策行动，例如提高联邦基金利率的目标范围，可能会对就业产生不利影响。
A critical input to the FOMC decisionmaking process is an analysis of economic conditions and outlook.
联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 决策过程的一个关键投入是对经济状况和前景的分析。
The real economy continues to be strong, with solid momentum in economic activity, robust household spending and business investment, and a healthy labor market that remains near full employment.
实体经济继续强劲，经济活动势头强劲，家庭支出和商业投资强劲，劳动力市场健康且接近充分就业。
Although economic conditions have been supportive of our employment mandate, they have been unsatisfying for our price stability mandate as inflation continues to be elevated.
尽管经济状况一直支持我们的就业任务，但随着通胀持续走高，经济状况并不能满足我们的物价稳定任务。
We have seen considerable progress in lowering inflation since early 2023, but progress seems to have stalled in recent months.
自 2023 年初以来，我们在降低通胀方面取得了显着进展，但近几个月进展似乎陷入停滞。
The 12-month measure of core personal consumption expenditures inflation—which excludes food and energy prices—has moved sideways at around 2.7 percent since May, and the latest consumer and producer price index reports point to a similarly elevated or even higher reading for October.
自 5 月份以来，衡量核心个人消费支出通胀的 12 个月指标（不包括食品和能源价格）一直在 2.7% 左右横盘，最新的消费者和生产者价格指数报告显示 10 月份的读数同样升高甚至更高。
The persistently high core inflation largely reflects pressures on housing services prices, perhaps due to an increase in demand for affordable housing and an inelastic supply.
持续居高不下的核心通胀在很大程度上反映了住房服务价格的压力，这可能是由于经济适用房需求增加和供应缺乏弹性造成的。
Gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a solid pace in the third quarter, maintaining the momentum from the previous four quarters.
第三季度国内生产总值（GDP）稳步增长，延续了前四个季度的势头。
Growth continued to be driven by private domestic final purchases, as personal consumption, and retail sales in particular, strongly increased last quarter, more than offsetting further weakness in housing activity due to high mortgage rates.
增长继续受到私人国内最终购买的推动，个人消费，尤其是零售额上季度强劲增长，足以抵消高抵押贷款利率导致的住房活动进一步疲软。
Retail sales continued to rise in October, even though Hurricanes Helene and Milton may have exerted a small drag on sales last month.
尽管飓风海伦和米尔顿可能对上个月的销售造成了小幅拖累，但 10 月份零售额继续增长。
The annual revision of the national income and product accounts confirmed that GDP has been providing the right signal about the ongoing strength in economic activity, as gross domestic income and personal income were revised up considerably for 2023 and the first half of this year.
国民收入和产品账户的年度修订证实，GDP 一直在提供有关经济活动持续强劲的正确信号，因为 2023 年和今年上半年的国内总收入和个人收入大幅上调。
The October employment report seems to have been affected by the recent hurricanes and the Boeing strike.
10月份的就业报告似乎受到了最近的飓风和波音公司罢工的影响。
It also featured the lowest response rate to the payroll survey in decades.
它还对薪资调查做出了几十年来最低的回应率。
After accounting for these special factors, it seems that payroll employment continued to increase in October at a pace close to the average monthly gain seen in the second and third quarters.
考虑到这些特殊因素后，十月份就业人数似乎继续增长，其速度接近第二和第三季度的月平均增幅。
The unemployment rate remained low at 4.1 percent in October, down from 4.3 percent in July.
10 月份失业率保持在 4.1% 的低位，低于 7 月份的 4.3%。
The labor force participation rate remains well below pre-pandemic levels and edged down further in October due to lower prime-age participation.
劳动力参与率仍远低于大流行前的水平，并且由于黄金年龄参与率较低，10 月份进一步小幅下降。
While unemployment is notably higher than a year ago, it is still at a historically low level and below my and the Congressional Budget Office's estimates of full employment.
尽管失业率明显高于一年前，但仍处于历史低位，低于我和国会预算办公室对充分就业的估计。
The labor market has loosened from the extremely tight conditions of the past few years.
劳动力市场已经从过去几年的极度紧张状况中放松下来。
The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers has been close to the historically elevated pre-pandemic level in recent months.
近几个月来，职位空缺与失业人员的比率已接近大流行前的历史最高水平。
But there are still more available jobs than available workers, a condition that before 2018 has only occurred twice for a prolonged period since World War II, further signaling ongoing labor market strength.
但可用工作岗位仍然多于可用工人数量，这种情况在 2018 年之前自二战以来的很长一段时间内只发生过两次，进一步表明劳动力市场持续走强。
Wage growth has slowed further in recent months, but it continues to indicate a tight labor market.
近几个月工资增长进一步放缓，但仍表明劳动力市场紧张。
The rise in the unemployment rate this year largely reflects weaker hiring, as job seekers entering or re-entering the labor force are taking longer to find work, while layoffs remain low.
今年失业率的上升很大程度上反映了招聘疲软，因为进入或重新进入劳动力市场的求职者需要更长的时间才能找到工作，而裁员率仍然很低。
In addition to some cooling in labor demand, a mismatch between the skills of the new workers and available jobs could further raise unemployment, suggesting that higher unemployment has been partly driven by the stronger supply of workers.
除了劳动力需求有所降温之外，新工人的技能与现有工作岗位之间的不匹配可能会进一步提高失业率，这表明失业率上升在一定程度上是由于工人供应增加造成的。
Monetary Policy In the monetary policy function, we rely on the best data available, but without question the data are imperfect.
货币政策 在货币政策职能中，我们依赖现有的最佳数据，但毫无疑问，这些数据是不完善的。
We also consider a range of possible future economic conditions to help inform our monetary policy decisionmaking, which requires that we make assumptions and predictions about the future.
我们还考虑一系列未来可能的经济状况，以帮助为我们的货币政策决策提供信息，这要求我们对未来做出假设和预测。
Looking back over time, our crystal ball has never been perfect at predicting the risks that may emerge, how those risks may influence economic conditions, and how that should be considered in analyzing our monetary policy goals.
回顾过去，我们的水晶球在预测可能出现的风险、这些风险如何影响经济状况以及在分析我们的货币政策目标时应如何考虑这一点方面从来都不是完美的。
To illustrate this point in terms of recent events, we have not yet met our inflation goal and, as I noted earlier, progress in lowering inflation appears to have stalled.
为了用最近发生的事件来说明这一点，我们尚未实现通胀目标，而且正如我之前指出的，降低通胀的进展似乎已经停滞。
I see greater risks to the price stability side of our mandate, especially while the labor market remains near full employment, but it is also possible that we could see a deterioration in labor market conditions.
我认为我们任务中的价格稳定方面面临更大的风险，特别是在劳动力市场仍接近充分就业的情况下，但我们也有可能看到劳动力市场状况恶化。
These predictions always come with a dose of humility, however, particularly because they rely on imperfect data.
然而，这些预测总是带有一定的谦逊，特别是因为它们依赖于不完美的数据。
The labor market data have become increasingly difficult to interpret, as surveys and other measurements struggle to incorporate large numbers of new workers and to account for other influences that we do not yet fully understand and have not yet been able to accurately measure.
劳动力市场数据变得越来越难以解释，因为调查和其他衡量标准难以纳入大量新工人，并难以解释我们尚未完全理解且无法准确衡量的其他影响。
As the dynamics of immigration and business creation and closures continue to change, it has become increasingly difficult to understand the payroll employment data.
随着移民和企业创建和关闭的动态不断变化，了解工资就业数据变得越来越困难。
In light of the dissonance created by conflicting economic signals, measurement challenges, and data revisions, I remain cautious about taking signal from only a limited set of real-time data releases.
鉴于相互矛盾的经济信号、衡量挑战和数据修订造成的不和谐，我对仅从有限的实时数据发布中获取信号仍然持谨慎态度。
While the mandate for monetary policy is straightforward, its execution is complex.
虽然货币政策的任务很简单，但其执行却很复杂。
Our decisions are guided by our dual mandate, but arriving at them entails careful analysis of sometimes flawed data, and informed judgments about unknowable future conditions.
我们的决策以我们的双重使命为指导，但做出这些决策需要仔细分析有时有缺陷的数据，并对不可知的未来状况做出明智的判断。
Bank Regulation and Supervision In conducting bank regulation and supervision, the Federal Reserve promotes the safe and sound operation of individual banks, and the stability of the broader financial system.
银行监管 在进行银行监管时，美联储促进单个银行的安全稳健运营以及更广泛的金融体系的稳定。
These bank regulatory goals have obvious synergies—individual banks operating in a safe and sound manner tends to create conditions that promote financial stability in the banking sector.
这些银行监管目标具有明显的协同效应，个体银行的安全稳健经营往往会为促进银行业金融稳定创造条件。
The Fed's bank regulatory objectives include implicit tradeoffs: we aim to foster a banking system that is safe, sound, and efficient, while serving the U.S. economy, and facilitating economic growth.
美联储的银行监管目标包括隐含的权衡：我们的目标是培育一个安全、健全和高效的银行体系，同时服务于美国经济并促进经济增长。
The objectives must also support the full breadth of the banking system from the very largest to the very smallest.
这些目标还必须支持从最大到最小的整个银行体系。
Striking a balance among these competing goals can certainly be a challenge, and policy views on where that balance should be struck may vary.
在这些相互竞争的目标之间取得平衡无疑是一项挑战，而且对于如何实现这种平衡的政策观点可能会有所不同。
We should approach the task of bank regulation with an understanding and appreciation of these tradeoffs, coupled with an affirmative acknowledgment that the banking system is an important driver of business formation, economic expansion, and opportunity.
我们应该在理解和重视这些权衡的情况下完成银行监管任务，并积极承认银行体系是企业形成、经济扩张和机遇的重要驱动力。
A banking system that is safe and sound yet irrelevant would not fulfill our regulatory objectives, but would be the inevitable outcome of following a path that strives for elimination of risks rather than promotion of effective risk management.
一个安全稳健但无关紧要的银行体系并不能实现我们的监管目标，而是走一条力求消除风险而不是促进有效风险管理之路的必然结果。
Banks are unique individual businesses, not public utilities.
银行是独特的个体企业，而不是公用事业。
The pursuit of these bank regulatory goals requires an approach that considers a range of regulatory and supervisory tools, from the quantitative—like the setting of bank capital and liquidity requirements—to the more subjective—like evaluating bank management during the examination process.
实现这些银行监管目标需要一种考虑一系列监管和监督工具的方法，从定量（如银行资本和流动性要求的设定）到更主观的（如在审查过程中评估银行管理）。
And while the goals themselves seem straightforward, the tools available and the complexity and evolution of the financial system over time present real challenges from a policymaking perspective.
虽然目标本身看起来很简单，但从政策制定的角度来看，可用的工具以及金融体系随着时间的复杂性和演变提出了真正的挑战。
When we consider drafting a new regulation, we should always ask "What problem would this new regulation solve?" Policymakers should exercise restraint in the promulgation of a new regulation, by articulating the problem it purports to solve and presenting an efficient way to address it.
当我们考虑起草新的法规时，我们总是应该问“这个新法规要解决什么问题？”政策制定者在颁布新法规时应保持克制，阐明其旨在解决的问题并提出解决问题的有效方法。
Identifying the problem that requires addressing often poses one of the most significant challenges.
确定需要解决的问题通常是最重大的挑战之一。
Ideally, the process would begin by identifying the problem, then move to an analysis of whether proposed solutions are within the agency's statutory authorities, and finally whether targeted changes to the regulatory framework could result in improvements, remediation of gaps, or elimination of redundant and unnecessary requirements.
理想情况下，该过程首先要确定问题，然后分析拟议的解决方案是否在该机构的法定权限范围内，最后对监管框架进行有针对性的改变是否可以带来改进、弥补差距或消除多余和不必要的要求。
But for a number of reasons, the problem identification process can result in misidentification of issues, and a resulting failure to prioritize the most important ones.
但由于多种原因，问题识别过程可能会导致问题识别错误，从而无法确定最重要问题的优先级。
Take for example the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and the regulatory response.
以硅谷银行（SVB）的失败和监管反应为例。
At its root, this bank's failure exposed significant flaws in the bank's management and the regulators' oversight and supervision.
从根本上说，这家银行的倒闭暴露了银行管理和监管部门监督管理的重大缺陷。
The interest rate and funding risks, rapid growth, and the idiosyncratic business model and concentrated customer base of the bank, were apparent and obvious.
银行的利率和融资风险、快速增长、独特的业务模式和集中的客户群是显而易见的。
These risks were mismanaged by SVB and not acted on early enough by bank supervisors.
SVB 对这些风险管理不善，银行监管机构也没有及早采取行动。
These were not the only factors contributing to the firm's failure, but these critical elements should have been the key priorities for the supervisory function to address after the bank's failure.
这些并不是导致公司倒闭的唯一因素，但这些关键因素应该是银行倒闭后监管职能需要解决的关键优先事项。
And yet in the aftermath of SVB's demise, we have focused on regulatory proposals ranging from substantial increases in bank capital requirements, to pushing down global systemically important bank (G-SIB) and large bank requirements to much smaller firms, finding supervisory deficiencies in the management of well-capitalized and financially sound firms, and considering widespread changes to the funding and liquidity requirements and expectations that apply to all banks.
然而，在SVB倒闭后，我们重点关注的监管建议包括大幅提高银行资本要求，将全球系统重要性银行（G-SIB）和大型银行的要求压低至规模小得多的公司，发现资本充足和财务稳健的公司管理中的监管缺陷，并考虑对适用于所有银行的融资和流动性要求和预期进行广泛的改变。
A crisis is not a regulatory blank check.
危机不是监管空白支票。
In some ways, it presents heightened risks that should prompt us to show our work even more carefully.
在某些方面，它带来了更高的风险，这应该促使我们更加仔细地展示我们的作品。
A deliberate, transparent, and fact-based approach to pursuing statutory objectives also serves the goal of avoiding the impression of pursuing unrelated policy goals, particularly those that venture into political concerns outside of an agency's purposes or functions.
采用深思熟虑、透明和基于事实的方法来追求法定目标，也有助于避免给人留下追求不相关政策目标的印象，特别是那些冒险涉及机构宗旨或职能之外的政治问题的目标。
Promoting safety, soundness, and financial stability should not devolve into an exercise of regulatory allocation of credit—picking winners and losers—or promoting an ideological position through more open-ended processes like bank supervision and examination.
促进安全、稳健和金融稳定不应演变成对信贷的监管分配——挑选赢家和输家——或通过银行监管和审查等更开放的过程来提升意识形态立场。
Effective and Efficient Solutions Once we have a clear and thorough understanding of our statutory objectives and have a framework to identify issues, gaps, or redundancies, the next task is to focus on finding efficient solutions to those issues.
有效和高效的解决方案 一旦我们对法定目标有了清晰透彻的了解，并建立了识别问题、差距或冗余的框架，下一个任务就是集中精力寻找这些问题的有效解决方案。
In doing so, we should consider policy alternatives and perspectives that may differ from our past approach.
在此过程中，我们应该考虑可能与我们过去的做法不同的政策选择和观点。
We should also acknowledge that we may not have all the facts or information necessary to immediately identify an effective solution.
我们还应该承认，我们可能没有立即确定有效解决方案所需的所有事实或信息。
Successful policymaking requires openness and humility, caution, and a deliberate approach.
成功的政策制定需要开放、谦逊、谨慎和深思熟虑的方法。
With respect to monetary policy, uncertainty surrounding available data and the many variables that can affect future economic conditions suggest that we should pursue a cautious approach.
就货币政策而言，现有数据的不确定性以及可能影响未来经济状况的许多变量表明我们应该采取谨慎的态度。
At the most recent meeting in November, the Committee decided to take an additional step along the path of moving toward a more neutral policy setting.
在 11 月份的最近一次会议上，委员会决定在走向更加中立的政策制定的道路上再迈出一步。
I agreed to support this action, since it aligns with my preference to lower the policy rate gradually, especially in light of elevated inflation and the uncertainty about the level of the neutral rate.
我同意支持这一行动，因为它符合我逐步降低政策利率的偏好，特别是考虑到通胀上升和中性利率水平的不确定性。
My estimate of the neutral policy rate is much higher than it was before the pandemic, and therefore we may be closer to a neutral policy stance than we currently think.
我对中性政策利率的估计远高于大流行之前的水平，因此我们可能比我们目前认为的更接近中性政策立场。
I would prefer to proceed cautiously in bringing the policy rate down to better assess how far we are from the end point, while recognizing that we have not yet achieved our inflation goal and closely watching the evolution of the labor market.
我宁愿谨慎地降低政策利率，以更好地评估我们距离终点还有多远，同时认识到我们尚未实现通胀目标，并密切关注劳动力市场的演变。
We should also not rule out the risk that the policy rate may attain or even fall below its neutral level before we achieve our price stability goal.
我们也不应该排除在实现价格稳定目标之前政策利率可能达到甚至低于中性水平的风险。
It is important to note that monetary policy is not on a preset course.
值得注意的是，货币政策并不是按照预设的路线进行的。
At each FOMC meeting, my colleagues and I will make our decisions based on the incoming data and the implications for and risks to the outlook and guided by the Fed's dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices.
在每次联邦公开市场委员会会议上，我和我的同事将根据收到的数据以及对前景的影响和风险，并以美联储最大化就业和稳定物价的双重使命目标为指导做出决定。
During each intermeeting period, we typically receive a range of economic data and information.
在每次会议期间，我们通常会收到一系列经济数据和信息。
In addition to closely watching the incoming data, I meet with a broad range of contacts to discuss economic conditions as I assess the appropriateness of our monetary policy stance.
除了密切关注即将发布的数据外，我还会与广泛的联系人会面，讨论经济状况，同时评估我们的货币政策立场的适当性。
Especially in light of the data measurement challenges that I mentioned earlier, engaging with contacts helps me interpret the signals provided by the data and gain a better understanding of how the economy is evolving.
特别是考虑到我之前提到的数据衡量挑战，与联系人接触有助于我解读数据提供的信号，并更好地了解经济的发展方式。
Consistent with this pragmatic approach, I am pleased that the November post meeting statement included a flexible, data-dependent approach, providing the Committee with optionality in deciding future policy adjustments.
与这种务实的做法相一致，我很高兴 11 月份的会后声明包含了一种灵活的、依赖数据的方法，为委员会在决定未来政策调整时提供了选择余地。
As I noted earlier, my view is that inflation remains a concern, and I continue to see price stability as essential for fostering a strong labor market and an economy that works for everyone in the longer term.
正如我之前指出的，我的观点是通货膨胀仍然是一个问题，而且我仍然认为价格稳定对于培育强大的劳动力市场和长期造福所有人的经济至关重要。
In banking regulation, this pragmatic approach requires us to consider the costs and benefits of any proposed change, as well as incentive effects, impacts on markets, and potential unintended consequences.
在银行监管中，这种务实的方法要求我们考虑任何拟议变革的成本和收益，以及激励效应、对市场的影响以及潜在的意外后果。
But it also means that we must consider the limits of regulatory responsibility—grounded by our statutory objectives—when taking regulatory action.
但这也意味着我们在采取监管行动时必须考虑监管责任的限制（以我们的法定目标为基础）。
In my view, these considerations apply beyond Federal Reserve policymaking to regulatory actions taken by any agency.
在我看来，这些考虑因素不仅适用于美联储的决策，也适用于任何机构采取的监管行动。
As I noted previously, statutory mandates guiding the Fed's bank regulatory responsibilities provide an important grounding for agency action.
正如我之前指出的，指导美联储银行监管责任的法定授权为机构行动提供了重要基础。
But they must be viewed in the broader context of promoting an effective and efficient banking system that supports market functioning and encourages economic growth, business creation and expansion, and opportunity.
但必须在更广泛的背景下看待它们，即促进有效和高效的银行体系，支持市场运作并鼓励经济增长、企业创造和扩张以及机会。
Our responsibility is not to look only at whether a proposal will promote greater safety and soundness, but to consider the broader context, including whether regulatory incentives will skew the allocation of credit, adversely affect capital markets, or push traditional banking activities outside of the banking system into less regulated non-banks.
我们的责任不是仅仅考虑一项提案是否会促进更大的安全性和稳健性，而是要考虑更广泛的背景，包括监管激励措施是否会扭曲信贷分配、对资本市场产生不利影响，或者将银行体系之外的传统银行活动推向监管较少的非银行机构。
Is the bank regulatory framework efficient?
银行监管框架是否有效？
Does it allow banks sufficient freedom and flexibility to operate and meet customer needs?
它是否让银行有足够的自由度和灵活性来运营和满足客户需求？
And importantly, are there areas within the approach to regulation and supervision that simply cannot be justified based on a cost-benefit analysis?
重要的是，监管方法中是否有一些领域根本无法根据成本效益分析来证明其合理性？
The answer to the latter is "Yes." There are a number of areas where right-sizing regulation and our supervisory approach would be appropriate and can be done in a way that does not sacrifice safety and soundness or threaten financial stability.
后者的答案是“是”。在许多领域，适当规模的监管和我们的监管方法是适当的，并且可以以不牺牲安全性和稳健性或威胁金融稳定的方式进行。
Regulation is most effective when it strikes an appropriate balance between competing goals and objectives.
当监管在相互竞争的目标和目标之间取得适当的平衡时，它是最有效的。
In the banking system, this means operating in a safe, sound, and financially stable way, while also supporting economic growth and efficiency.
在银行体系中，这意味着以安全、稳健和财务稳定的方式运营，同时支持经济增长和效率。
When we fail to consider this broader context, we risk disincentivizing growth, imposing overly burdensome and unnecessary regulations, setting opaque and unreasonable expectations through the supervisory process, and forcing the inefficient allocation of capital.
当我们未能考虑这一更广泛的背景时，我们就有可能抑制经济增长，实施过于繁重和不必要的监管，通过监管程序设定不透明和不合理的期望，并迫使资本配置低效。
Sometimes this debate escapes from the dusty offices of the banking regulators into plain view, as during the past year on the Basel III Endgame package of bank capital reforms.
有时，这种争论会从银行监管机构尘土飞扬的办公室中转移到人们的视线中，例如去年关于巴塞尔协议 III 银行资本改革最终方案的争论。
While this proposal prompted extensive comment from a wide range of commenters, it also inspired a negative television and radio advertising campaign, which is unprecedented for a relatively technical bank regulatory issue.
虽然这一提议引起了广泛评论者的广泛评论，但它也引发了负面的电视和广播广告活动，这对于相对技术性的银行监管问题来说是前所未有的。
But these ads highlighted an uncomfortable truth: the regulatory approach we took failed to consider or deliver a reasonable proposal, one aligned with the original Basel agreement yet suited to the particulars of the U.S. banking system.
但这些广告凸显了一个令人不安的事实：我们采取的监管方法未能考虑或提出合理的建议，该建议既符合原始巴塞尔协议，又适合美国银行体系的具体情况。
Instead, the proposal released last year opted for significant capital increases for some banks, in excess of 20 percent, departing significantly from the approach adopted by our international counterparts.
相反，去年发布的提案选择对一些银行大幅增加资本，增幅超过20%，这与国际同行采取的做法大相径庭。
This public engagement has been useful, and it seems to have softened some of the over-calibrated positions underpinning the original capital reform proposal.
这种公众参与是有用的，它似乎软化了支撑最初资本改革提案的一些过度校准的立场。
But this level of public engagement and debate was also a byproduct of the rulemaking process.
但这种程度的公众参与和辩论也是规则制定过程的副产品。
While regulatory overreach can threaten the credibility of agency action in the eyes of the public, a transparent process allows public commenters to pressure test and pushback on agency action.
虽然监管过度可能会威胁到公众眼中机构行动的可信度，但透明的流程允许公众评论者对机构行动进行压力测试和抵制。
However, when agencies overwhelm the process by publishing thousands of pages of rulemakings in a short period of time, the public's ability to provide meaningful feedback on our rules is compromised.
然而，当各机构在短时间内发布数千页的规则制定过程，公众对我们的规则提供有意义的反馈的能力就会受到损害。
Last year the federal financial agencies published over 5,000 pages of rules and proposals.
去年，联邦金融机构发布了 5,000 多页的规则和提案。
And yet, even when the public is able to comment on these voluminous proposals, regulators often ignore this constructive feedback and move forward to publish final rules with minimal or no changes relative to their proposals, as with the Community Reinvestment Act rule.
然而，即使公众能够对这些大量提案发表评论，监管机构也常常忽视这种建设性反馈，并继续发布最终规则，而对其提案进行很少或根本没有修改，就像《社区再投资法》规则一样。
Maintenance of an existing regulatory framework is not glamorous but is perhaps one of the more important agency functions to ensure that the framework is striking the right balance between promoting a strong banking system and supporting economic growth.
维持现有的监管框架并不光彩，但可能是更重要的机构职能之一，以确保该框架在促进强大的银行体系和支持经济增长之间取得适当的平衡。
This requires reviewing and updating regulations to ensure that prior agency actions continue to address problems efficiently as industries and conditions change.
这需要审查和更新法规，以确保先前的机构行动能够随着行业和条件的变化而继续有效地解决问题。
3 When agencies prioritize the creation of new regulation in the absence of a statutory mandate, harmful and unintended consequences can result.
3 当各机构在缺乏法定授权的情况下优先制定新法规时，可能会导致有害和意想不到的后果。
One such example is the adverse effects of regulatory constraints on Treasury market functioning.
其中一个例子是监管限制对国债市场运作的不利影响。
Rules like the Supplementary Leverage Ratio, the G-SIB Surcharge, and the Liquidity Coverage Ratio pose known and identified constraints on the Treasury market that may contribute to future stress and market disruption if left unaddressed.
补充杠杆率、G-SIB附加费和流动性覆盖率等规则对国债市场构成了已知和已确定的限制，如果不加以解决，可能会导致未来的压力和市场混乱。
Finally, while transparency—like that intended by the rulemaking process—can lead to better public engagement and outcomes, it is important that agency actions are transparent even when not legally mandated.
最后，虽然透明度（如规则制定过程所希望的那样）可以带来更好的公众参与和结果，但重要的是，即使没有法律强制，机构行动也必须透明。
The most obvious opportunity for additional transparency in the banking framework is in supervision.
提高银行框架透明度的最明显机会是监管。
Supervision by its nature involves confidential and detailed inquiries into bank operations, with examiners evaluating quantitative measures like capital and liquidity, while making judgmental assessments of the activities and risks of the institution, and its risk-management approach.
监管的本质包括对银行运营进行保密和详细的调查，审查员评估资本和流动性等定量指标，同时对机构的活动和风险及其风险管理方法做出判断性评估。
Supervisory expectations should not surprise regulated firms, and yet transparency of these expectations is often challenging to achieve.
监管期望不应让受监管的公司感到惊讶，但这些期望的透明度往往难以实现。
In fact, since the failure of SVB supervisory surprises have become more common in bank examinations.
事实上，自从SVB失败以来，监管意外在银行检查中变得更加常见。
In light of the recent Supreme Court cases regarding agency actions, agencies should respond in a way that furthers the goals of transparency and accountability, and act as a check on regulatory overreach.
鉴于最近最高法院有关机构行动的案件，各机构应以进一步实现透明度和问责制目标的方式做出反应，并作为对监管过度行为的制衡。
The elimination of Chevron deference has the potential to transform agency rulemakings positively—in a way that promotes the pragmatic approach I outlined in this discussion.
消除雪佛龙的尊重有可能积极改变机构的规则制定——以促进我在本次讨论中概述的务实方法的方式。
The same considerations we follow in the pursuit of our statutory objectives could help support rulemakings that are built upon a stronger factual and analytical basis, with a thorough and more comprehensive explanation of an agency's policy approach.
我们在追求法定目标时遵循的相同考虑因素可以帮助支持建立在更强有力的事实和分析基础上的规则制定，并对机构的政策方法进行彻底和更全面的解释。
Closing Thoughts While my remarks today have largely focused on Federal Reserve responsibilities, a pragmatic approach has broader applicability.
结束语 虽然我今天的讲话主要集中在美联储的责任上，但务实的方法具有更广泛的适用性。
Agencies can build public support for their activities by following these simple principles—a rigorous focus on statutory objectives, a foundation based on facts and careful analysis in forming policy, crafting efficient solutions, and public transparency and accountability.
各机构可以通过遵循这些简单的原则来赢得公众对其活动的支持——严格关注法定目标，以事实为基础，在制定政策时进行仔细分析，制定有效的解决方案，以及公共透明度和问责制。
Agencies and their regulated businesses will benefit from a rigorous process that considers different perspectives, the intended and unintended consequences of decisions, and the costs and benefits of actions.
各机构及其受监管的企业将受益于严格的流程，该流程考虑不同的观点、决策的预期和非预期后果以及行动的成本和收益。
The ability of the banking system to finance the future growth of the U.S. economy hinges upon our ability and willingness to shift our approach to regulation and supervisory oversight.
银行体系为美国经济未来增长提供融资的能力取决于我们改变监管和监督方式的能力和意愿。
A pragmatic approach to policymaking will better enable the U.S. economy to continue to grow now and into the future.
务实的政策制定方式将更好地促进美国经济现在和未来的持续增长。
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The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee.
这里表达的观点是我自己的观点，不一定是我在美联储委员会或联邦公开市场委员会的同事的观点。
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In February, the Board announced the initiation of its review of its regulations to identify those regulations that are outdated, unnecessary, or overly burdensome in accordance with the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act.
今年二月，委员会宣布开始对其法规进行审查，以根据《经济增长和监管文书减少法案》确定那些过时、不必要或过于繁重的法规。
See Michelle W.
参见米歇尔·W.
Bowman (2024), "Statement by Governor Michelle W.
鲍曼 (2024)，“米歇尔·W. 州长声明”
Bowman on the Review of the Board's Regulations under the Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act of 1996 (EGRPRA)" press release, February 6.
鲍曼关于根据 1996 年经济增长和监管文书减少法案 (EGRPRA) 审查董事会法规”新闻稿，2 月 6 日。
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