A Year in Review: A Tale of Two Supply Shocks
Thank you, Jason, and thank you for the opportunity to speak here in Detroit today.
谢谢杰森，也感谢你今天有机会在底特律发言。
1 This visit has allowed me to see the many encouraging signs in this region: growth here in downtown; the area's famously hard-working labor force; and the gritty Detroit Lions, with 11 wins this season and counting.
1 这次访问让我看到了该地区许多令人鼓舞的迹象：市中心的增长；该地区以勤劳着称的劳动力；还有坚韧不拔的底特律雄狮队，本赛季取得了 11 场胜利，并且还在不断增加。
The nation has taken notice.
全国已经注意到了。
But, truly, one of my favorite parts of serving as a Governor on the Federal Reserve Board is visiting communities across the country and hearing directly from the families, workers, and businesses we serve.
但说实话，作为美联储理事，我最喜欢的部分之一就是走访全国各地的社区，直接听取我们所服务的家庭、工人和企业的意见。
I am also glad to have the chance to speak with you near the end of the year.
我也很高兴有机会在年底与大家交谈。
I think it is an appropriate time to look back and assess how the U.S. economy has developed over the course of 2024.
我认为现在是回顾和评估2024年美国经济发展情况的适当时机。
I will also share with you my outlook and offer my views on U.S. monetary policy.
我也会跟大家分享一下我的展望以及对美国货币政策的看法。
I will start by saying that I view the economy as being in a good position after making significant progress in recent years toward our dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices.
首先我要说的是，近年来，在实现就业最大化和物价稳定的双重目标方面取得了重大进展后，我认为经济处于良好状态。
The labor market remains solid, and inflation appears to be on a sustainable path to our 2 percent goal, even if there have been some bumps along the way, as I will discuss later.
劳动力市场依然稳健，通胀似乎正在可持续地实现我们 2% 的目标，尽管一路上遇到了一些坎坷，正如我稍后将讨论的那样。
Reaching this point for the economy was far from assured, especially if you reflect on the pandemic disruptions of nearly five years ago.
经济达到这一点还远未确定，特别是如果你回顾一下近五年前的大流行破坏。
Even the more recent performance of the economy, at least on the surface, has been surprising to many forecasters.
即使是最近的经济表现，至少从表面上看，也令许多预测者感到惊讶。
Economic growth remained solid, while inflation moderated from its recent peak without the painful job losses that have often accompanied past efforts to counter high inflation.
经济增长依然稳健，通胀也从最近的峰值放缓，没有出现过去应对高通胀的努力中经常出现的痛苦的失业情况。
Heading into this year, that was not necessarily the forecast of many observers, who were expecting a notable deceleration of economic activity.
进入今年，这不一定是许多观察家的预测，他们预计经济活动将显着减速。
For example, the Blue Chip Economic Indicators in December 2023 expected 1.3 percent GDP growth for all of 2024.
例如，2023 年 12 月的蓝筹经济指标预计 2024 年全年 GDP 增长 1.3%。
More recent estimates show the economy is on track to grow at almost twice that rate this year.
最近的估计显示，今年经济的增长速度几乎是两倍。
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So how does one interpret these positive, if somewhat unexpected, results?
那么，人们如何解释这些积极的、尽管有些出乎意料的结果呢？
For me, I turned to looking at not just the realities around me and listening to people around the country, but also to my background as an academic researcher who uses an evidence-based approach to recognize two very important developments that have shaped the economy this year: growth in the labor force stemming from an increase in immigration, and a surge in productivity.
对我来说，我不仅关注周围的现实并倾听全国各地人们的声音，而且还关注我作为一名学术研究员的背景，他使用基于证据的方法来认识到塑造今年经济的两个非常重要的发展：移民增加导致的劳动力增长和生产率的飙升。
I have been closely monitoring these developments and discussing them for more than a year.
一年多以来，我一直在密切关注这些事态发展并进行讨论。
Assessing the Economy Entering 2024 Entering this year, I took notice of several peculiar puzzles that seemed to be playing out in the economy.
评估进入 2024 年的经济 进入今年，我注意到经济中似乎正在上演的几个特殊谜题。
In terms of overall growth, I noticed a significant divergence between two important measures of output: gross domestic product, or GDP, and gross domestic income, or GDI.
就总体增长而言，我注意到两个重要的产出指标之间存在显着差异：国内生产总值（GDP）和国内总收入（GDI）。
While, over time, these two gauges should move together, they appeared to be out of sync heading into this year.
虽然随着时间的推移，这两个指标应该会同步变化，但进入今年它们似乎不再同步。
The GDI data suggested rather anemic growth, averaging about 1 percent a quarter in 2023, contrary to very strong GDP readings of more than 2.5 percent.
GDI 数据显示增长相当乏力，2023 年平均每季度增长约 1%，与超过 2.5% 的强劲 GDP 读数相反。
The two measures of output had contrasting implications for productivity growth.
这两种产出指标对生产率增长具有截然不同的影响。
There was a second puzzle in the labor market.
劳动力市场还有第二个难题。
Many forecasters expected that the labor market would remain somewhat tight this year, as rebalancing in the labor market had already attracted a large fraction of the available working-age population: The labor force participation of prime-age workers had reached levels not seen since the late 1990s.
许多预测人士预计，今年劳动力市场将保持一定程度的紧张，因为劳动力市场的再平衡已经吸引了大部分适龄劳动人口：壮年工人的劳动力参与率已达到 90 年代末以来的最高水平。
However, upon closer examination, I saw a more mixed picture.
然而，经过仔细观察，我看到了更为复杂的情况。
On the one hand, payroll gains, while slowing, were still averaging a very robust pace of more than 200,000 jobs per month.
一方面，工资增长虽然放缓，但仍保持每月平均超过 20 万个就业岗位的强劲增长势头。
Data from that time suggest that workers were easily able to find jobs, and measures of layoffs were low by historical standards.
当时的数据表明，工人很容易找到工作，而且按照历史标准来看，裁员规模也很低。
In fact, in certain industries, such as health care as well as leisure and hospitality, employment had not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels.
事实上，在医疗保健、休闲和酒店等某些行业，就业尚未恢复到大流行前的水平。
That raised questions about whether the supply of workers for those fields could keep pace with demand.
这引发了人们对这些领域的工人供应能否跟上需求的疑问。
But, on the other hand, the unemployment rate was flat instead of declining.
但另一方面，失业率不但没有下降，反而持平。
This was puzzling considering a robust pace of payroll gains and the assumption that labor supply was constrained.
考虑到薪资增长的强劲步伐以及劳动力供应受到限制的假设，这一点令人费解。
And the two most important labor market surveys sent somewhat divergent signals.
两项最重要的劳动力市场调查发出了有些不同的信号。
The payroll survey of employers showed hiring was abnormally above the gain recorded by the survey of households.
雇主工资调查显示，招聘人数异常高于家庭调查记录的增幅。
Was the economy expanding at a robust pace, as indicated by the payroll survey?
正如薪资调查所示，经济是否正在以强劲的速度扩张？
Or was it slowing more, as suggested by the household survey?
还是如家庭调查所表明的那样，增速放缓得更多？
In considering these questions, I interpreted the strong pace of payrolls from the establishment survey and the cooling of various measures of resource utilization as a signal that perhaps the official population estimates were understated to the downside.
在考虑这些问题时，我将机构调查中就业人数的强劲增长和各种资源利用指标的降温解读为一个信号，表明官方人口估计可能低估了下行趋势。
Starting at the end of 2023, I asked, what if substantial increases in the labor force due to the arrival of workers from other countries had not yet been picked up in Census estimates?
我问，从 2023 年底开始，如果人口普查估计中尚未反映出来自其他国家的工人到来导致的劳动力大幅增加怎么办？
We had seen something similar before.
我们以前也见过类似的事情。
In the late 1990s, official measures of the population were substantially revised up due to mismeasured immigration.
20 世纪 90 年代末，由于移民统计错误，官方人口统计数据大幅上调。
During this period, establishment and household counts of workers also significantly diverged.
在此期间，工人的单位和家庭数量也存在显着差异。
And a third puzzle, with inflation, also warrants attention.
第三个难题，即通货膨胀，也值得关注。
Inflation had steadily progressed toward the FOMC's target during 2023, perhaps faster than some economists expected.
2023 年通胀率稳步向 FOMC 目标迈进，或许快于一些经济学家的预期。
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index eased from a peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022 to about 3 percent at the end of 2023, measured on a 12-month basis.
按 12 个月衡量，个人消费支出 (PCE) 价格指数从 2022 年 6 月的峰值 7.2% 降至 2023 年底的约 3%。
When excluding volatile food and energy prices, core inflation similarly eased from a peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022 to 3 percent at the end of last year.
排除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心通胀率同样从 2022 年 2 月 5.6% 的峰值降至去年底的 3%。
Wage growth measures were consistent with inflation declining.
工资增长指标与通胀下降一致。
Economic Developments This Year At the turn of the new year, new data and other economic developments appeared to cloud the picture further.
今年的经济发展 新年伊始，新数据和其他经济发展似乎让形势进一步蒙上阴影。
An uptick in consumer spending and overall economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2023 as well as a stretch of above-trend hiring gave a signal of unexpected strength to start the year.
2023 年第四季度消费者支出和整体经济活动的上升，以及一系列高于趋势的招聘，发出了新年伊始意想不到的强劲信号。
Adding to the puzzling figures, core inflation rose 0.5 percent in January, a notable acceleration from an average monthly increase of 0.15 percent in the previous quarter.
更令人费解的是，1 月份核心通胀率上升 0.5%，较上一季度 0.15% 的月平均增幅显着加快。
Stronger-than-expected economic activity, faster hiring, and a reacceleration of prices gave some economists pause: Was this a temporary acceleration, or a more sustained reheating of the economy?
强于预期的经济活动、更快的招聘以及价格的重新加速让一些经济学家犹豫不决：这是暂时的加速，还是经济更持续的重新升温？
I viewed it as likely temporary, as it turned out to be.
我认为这很可能是暂时的，事实证明也是如此。
My view has always been that progress in the fight against inflation has to be judged from trends, not from a data release or two.
我一直认为，应对通胀的进展必须根据趋势来判断，而不是根据一两个数据发布来判断。
I also anticipated that the process of bringing down inflation was likely to be sometimes bumpy.
我还预计，降低通胀的过程有时可能会很坎坷。
However, I viewed the elevated inflation readings as partly stemming from seasonal and one-off factors not fully accounted for in the data.
然而，我认为通胀数据上升部分源于数据中未充分考虑的季节性和一次性因素。
In addition, price changes in some categories are difficult to measure, as I have described in previous speeches.
此外，正如我在之前的演讲中所描述的，某些类别的价格变化很难衡量。
3 That is particularly true for certain services categories for which direct sources of prices are not available; for example, the cost of living in an owner-occupied home or costs associated with certain financial transactions.
3 对于某些无法获得直接价格来源的服务类别来说尤其如此；例如，自住房屋的生活费用或与某些金融交易相关的费用。
And, as I have also discussed, the slow adjustment in workers' wages and relative prices may have contributed to bumps on the road to disinflation.
而且，正如我也讨论过的，工人工资和相对价格的缓慢调整可能导致了通货紧缩之路上的坎坷。
Indeed, by the second quarter of the year, it became clear that the earlier firmer inflation figures were indeed temporary.
事实上，到今年第二季度，人们已经清楚地看到，早些时候较为坚挺的通胀数据确实是暂时的。
Inflation stepped back down to average monthly increases of less than 0.2 percent.
通货膨胀率回落至月均增幅低于 0.2%。
A factor in that was a cooling labor market, which I will discuss in a moment.
其中一个因素是劳动力市场降温，我稍后将讨论这一点。
With the labor market less tight, wage growth leveled off, and that in turn allowed prices for labor-intensive services to moderate.
随着劳动力市场的紧张程度缓解，工资增长趋于平稳，从而使劳动密集型服务的价格趋于缓和。
There was another important development early this year: Estimates of population growth were revised substantially higher, according to a Congressional Budget Office report.
今年年初还有另一个重要进展：根据国会预算办公室的报告，人口增长估计值大幅上调。
4 The report showed about 6 million additional immigrants than were included in official estimates.
4 报告显示，新增移民人数比官方估计数增加了约 600 万。
Those workers added to the supply of labor, which had rebounded early in the pandemic recovery at a time when the unemployment rate was trending near half-century lows.
这些工人增加了劳动力供应，劳动力供应在大流行复苏初期反弹，当时失业率接近半个世纪低点。
That information was consistent with my hypothesis that the strength in the economy was in part due to a larger-than-estimated labor force, or what economists call a positive supply shock.
这些信息与我的假设是一致的，即经济的强劲部分归因于劳动力数量超出预期，或者经济学家所说的正供给冲击。
You may be more familiar with negative shocks, like the pandemic causing constrained supply chains.
您可能更熟悉负面冲击，例如大流行导致供应链受限。
But the increase of workers was a positive shock and is notable because the underlying demographics of the U.S. heading into the pandemic were consistent with a slow-growing population and lower labor force participation, and that dynamic got worse as the pandemic generated excess retirements and a fall in immigration.
但工人数量的增加是一个积极的冲击，而且值得注意，因为美国进入大流行病的基本人口统计数据与人口增长缓慢和劳动力参与率较低相一致，而且随着大流行病导致退休人数过多和移民人数下降，这种动态变得更糟。
In terms of the labor market, I anticipated that after several months of strong job growth at the turn of the year, the labor market would cool significantly.
就劳动力市场而言，我预计，经过岁末几个月的强劲就业增长后，劳动力市场将大幅降温。
And, indeed, by the middle of this year, the process of the labor market normalizing was taking shape.
事实上，到今年年中，劳动力市场正常化的进程正在形成。
Payroll gains declined from an average pace of 260,000 in the first quarter to less than 200,000 in the second.
工资增长从第一季度的平均 26 万下降到第二季度的不足 20 万。
Reports on the labor market included unusually large downward revisions to previous gains, and the unemployment rate moved higher, from 3.7 percent in January to 4.1 percent in June.
关于劳动力市场的报告包括对之前涨幅的异常大幅下调，失业率上升，从 1 月份的 3.7% 上升到 6 月份的 4.1%。
At this point, other economists quickly shifted from worrying about a labor market that might be too hot early in the year to one that might be cooling too quickly.
此时，其他经济学家很快就从担心今年年初劳动力市场可能太热转向担心劳动力市场可能降温太快。
As a Fed policymaker, I had to consider if this movement was consistent with our mandate for maximum employment.
作为美联储政策制定者，我必须考虑这一举措是否符合我们最大限度就业的使命。
Even with the easing in the labor market, consumer spending and overall economic activity continued to show solid growth.
尽管劳动力市场宽松，但消费者支出和整体经济活动继续呈现稳健增长。
The combination of strong spending data and a cooling labor market was confounding.
强劲的支出数据和降温的劳动力市场相结合令人困惑。
In thinking about this, I examined the productivity data that I follow closely and did not see the type of productivity growth I would have expected based on several other observations of the economy.
在思考这个问题时，我检查了我密切关注的生产率数据，但没有看到我根据其他几项经济观察所预期的生产率增长类型。
For example, new business formation had surged in the post-pandemic period.
例如，疫情后时期新业务的形成激增。
It has been shown that newer firms foster innovation and boost productivity growth.
事实证明，新企业能够促进创新并促进生产率增长。
Business formation has remained elevated, from which I infer that the boost to productivity growth is not just a one-time phenomenon.
企业形成仍然保持较高水平，由此我推断，生产率增长的推动不仅仅是一次性现象。
Also, in the post-pandemic period, workers switched jobs at much higher rates than typical.
此外，在大流行后时期，工人跳槽的比率比平时要高得多。
This likely led to better matches where workers can find more productive uses of their skills.
这可能会带来更好的匹配，让员工可以更有效地利用自己的技能。
In some cases, immigrants filled job openings for which employers traditionally struggle to attract workers.
在某些情况下，移民填补了雇主传统上难以吸引工人的职位空缺。
Therefore, immigration can also contribute to improvements in job matches in specific but key sectors.
因此，移民还有助于改善特定但关键领域的就业匹配。
As the economy reopened from the pandemic, many firms also invested in technology to substitute for workers, who were in short supply, which should support productivity gains.
随着经济从大流行中重新开放，许多公司还投资技术来替代供应短缺的工人，这应该会支持生产率的提高。
Emerging technologies, most notably artificial intelligence, may also be starting to contribute to enhanced productivity.
新兴技术，尤其是人工智能，也可能开始有助于提高生产力。
Therefore, my speculation was that higher productivity was a possible explanation for the unusual combination of strong economic output, a cooling labor market, and declining inflation—even if it was not apparent in the quarterly data.
因此，我的猜测是，生产率的提高可能是强劲经济产出、劳动力市场降温和通胀下降的不寻常组合的一个可能解释——即使这一点在季度数据中并不明显。
That hunch was confirmed in September, when annual revisions to important economic data showed that economic activity and productivity growth had been stronger than previously estimated.
这一预感在 9 月份得到了证实，当时对重要经济数据的年度修正显示，经济活动和生产率增长强于之前的估计。
The new figures indicated an average annual rate of productivity growth of 1.9 percent since 2020, notably higher than the approximate 1.4 percent annual rate in the five years before the pandemic.
新数据显示，自2020年以来，生产率年均增长率为1.9%，明显高于疫情爆发前五年约1.4%的年增长率。
So that reveals our second positive shock: American workers have been more productive in recent years.
这揭示了我们的第二个积极冲击：近年来美国工人的生产力提高了。
This is a hugely important development because it increases the productive capacity of the economy and allows more rapid economic growth without overheating.
这是一项非常重要的发展，因为它提高了经济的生产能力，使经济增长更加快速而不会过热。
What's more, revisions resulted in much better aligned GDP and GDI measures, and the two measures now also had much more aligned implications for productivity.
更重要的是，修订导致 GDP 和 GDI 指标更加一致，而这两项指标现在对生产率的影响也更加一致。
In summary, the surprising and largely desirable outcomes for the economy in 2024 are easier to understand once we solve the puzzles I discussed.
总而言之，一旦我们解决了我讨论的难题，2024 年经济会出现令人惊讶且基本令人满意的结果就更容易理解。
My thorough assessment of a wide range of data sources revealed that an unusual combination of reports over the past year were gradually resolved once we understood the two positive supply shocks I discussed: growth in the labor force due to an increase in immigration, and higher productivity growth.
我对各种数据源的全面评估表明，一旦我们理解了我讨论的两个积极的供应冲击：移民增加导致的劳动力增长和生产率的提高，过去一年中不同寻常的报告组合就逐渐得到解决。
Economic Outlook The data we have received in recent weeks have been consistent with the economic forces I described earlier.
经济展望 我们最近几周收到的数据与我之前描述的经济力量一致。
Real GDP increased at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the third quarter.
第三季度实际GDP年率增长2.8%。
The latest readings of retail sales have been strong.
最新的零售销售数据强劲。
If household demand remains resilient, that would support growth in the fourth quarter and into next year.
如果家庭需求保持弹性，这将支持第四季度和明年的增长。
Monthly payroll gains have eased from earlier in the year, consistent with a gradual cooling of the labor market.
月度工资增幅较今年早些时候有所放缓，这与劳动力市场逐渐降温的情况一致。
It was difficult to draw a clear signal from the most recent jobs report, due to significant effects from hurricanes and labor strikes.
由于飓风和罢工的重大影响，很难从最新的就业报告中得出明确的信号。
I look forward to reviewing additional labor data on Friday.
我期待着周五查看更多的劳动力数据。
The unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent in October, is near the level I judge as roughly consistent with our maximum-employment mandate.
10 月份的失业率为 4.1%，接近我认为与我们的最大就业目标大致相符的水平。
After rising earlier this year, the rate has stabilized, though this was partly due to some withdrawals from the labor force.
在今年早些时候上升后，该比率已趋于稳定，尽管部分原因是劳动力退出。
That bears watching moving forward.
这值得我们继续关注。
The trend in immigration slowed in the second half of this year, and there is reason to expect immigration flows could further slow.
今年下半年移民趋势放缓，有理由预计移民流量可能进一步放缓。
I will closely monitor this data.
我会密切关注这些数据。
Inflation readings released last week show that overall PCE prices rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in October, and core PCE prices increased 2.8 percent.
上周发布的通胀数据显示，截至 10 月份的 12 个月中，PCE 整体价格上涨了 2.3%，核心 PCE 价格上涨了 2.8%。
I still view those readings, as of now, as consistent with inflation on a path to return to our 2 percent goal, and I am encouraged that inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored.
到目前为止，我仍然认为这些读数与通胀回归 2% 目标的道路一致，令我感到鼓舞的是，通胀预期似乎仍保持良好锚定。
But they also show the job is not yet done.
但他们也表明工作尚未完成。
Housing services inflation, in particular, remains elevated.
尤其是住房服务通胀仍然居高不下。
And while global inputs to inflation have been mostly modest in recent months, it is difficult to predict future pressures.
尽管近几个月来全球对通胀的影响大多不大，但很难预测未来的压力。
I have observed that the trade policy uncertainty index has risen in recent months, likely reflecting risks of changes in trade policy.
我观察到，近几个月贸易政策不确定性指数有所上升，可能反映出贸易政策变化的风险。
5 Of course, the incoming Administration and Congress have not enacted any policies yet, so it is too early to make judgements.
5 当然，即将上任的政府和国会尚未制定任何政策，因此现在做出判断还为时过早。
Studying the specifics, when they come out, will be important, as trade policy may affect productivity and prices.
具体细节出来后进行研究将很重要，因为贸易政策可能会影响生产率和价格。
I will make assessments about what the net effects of any policy changes will be on prices or employment and how the balance between the two legs of our mandate will be affected.
我将评估任何政策变化对价格或就业的净影响，以及我们任务的两条腿之间的平衡将如何受到影响。
Outlook for Monetary Policy Given how the economy has developed this year, most notably the continuation of disinflation and a modest cooling in the labor market, I see the Fed's dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability as being roughly in balance.
货币政策展望 考虑到今年经济的发展情况，最明显的是通货紧缩的持续和劳动力市场的温和降温，我认为美联储最大化就业和物价稳定的双重使命目标大致处于平衡状态。
In light of the progress toward our goals, my colleagues and I on the FOMC judged it appropriate to lower our policy rate in September and again last month.
鉴于实现我们目标的进展，我和我在 FOMC 的同事认为，在 9 月份和上个月再次降低政策利率是适当的。
These actions were steps toward removing restraint, as we are in the process of moving policy toward a more neutral setting.
这些行动是消除限制的步骤，因为我们正在将政策转向更加中立的环境。
Looking ahead, it is important to emphasize that policy is not on a preset course.
展望未来，需要强调的是，政策并非按预设路线进行。
I will make decisions meeting by meeting and carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
我将一次又一次地做出决策，并仔细评估收到的数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平衡。
While I have gained more confidence that the two positive supply shocks I described have helped create the solid economic conditions that are currently in place, I will vigilantly monitor for incoming risks or negative supply shocks that may undo the progress that we have achieved in reducing inflation.
虽然我更加相信我所描述的两次积极的供应冲击有助于创造目前坚实的经济条件，但我将警惕地监测即将到来的风险或消极的供应冲击，这些冲击可能会抵消我们在降低通胀方面取得的进展。
I view our current policy setting as well positioned to deal with any uncertainties we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate.
我认为我们当前的政策制定足以应对我们在履行双重使命时所面临的任何不确定性。
Thank you for your time, and I look forward to your questions.
感谢您抽出宝贵时间，期待您的提问。
1.
1.
The views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee.
这里表达的观点是我自己的观点，并不一定是我在联邦储备委员会或联邦公开市场委员会的同事的观点。
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2.
2.
See Wolters Kluwer (2023), Blue Chip Economic Indicators, vol. 48 (December 8).
请参阅 Wolters Kluwer (2023)，蓝筹经济指标，第一卷。 48（12 月 8 日）。
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3.
3.
See Adriana D.
参见阿德里安娜 D.
Kugler (2024), " The Challenges Facing Economic Measurement and Creative Solutions ," speech delivered at the 21st Annual Economic Measurement Seminar, National Association for Business Economics Foundation, Washington, July 16.
Kugler (2024)，“经济衡量和创造性解决方案面临的挑战”，在第 21 届年度经济衡量研讨会上发表的演讲，国家商业经济基金会协会，华盛顿，7 月 16 日。
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4.
4.
See Congressional Budget Office (2024), The Demographic Outlook: 2024 to 2025 (Washington: CBO, January).
请参阅国会预算办公室（2024 年），《人口展望：2024 年至 2025 年》（华盛顿：CBO，1 月）。
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5.
5.
See Dario Caldara, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo (2020), "The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 109 (January), pp.
参见 Dario Caldara、Matteo Iacoviello、Patrick Molligo、Andrea Prestipino 和 Andrea Raffo (2020)，“贸易政策不确定性的经济影响”，《货币经济学杂志》，第 1 卷。 109（一月），第 109 页。
38–59.
38-59。
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