meritocracy exams and the knowledge that matters with daisy christodoulou
What does a failed 19th-century Chinese civil exam and one of the deadliest wars in history have to do with how we hire, educate, and test people today?
19世纪中国科举的失败和历史上最致命的战争之一与我们今天雇用、教育和测试人员的方式有什么关系？
In this EconTalk conversation, Russ Roberts and education expert Daisy Christodoulou trace a surprising thread from the Taiping Rebellion through Britain's Northcote-Trevelyan reforms, Samuel Pepys's naval exams, and Macaulay's belief that a hard exam on anything--even alchemy or the Cherokee language--reveals the best minds.
在这次 EconTalk 对话中，拉斯·罗伯茨 (Russ Roberts) 和教育专家黛西·赫里斯托杜卢 (Daisy Christodoulou) 追溯了一条令人惊讶的线索，从太平天国起义到英国的诺斯科特-特里维廉改革、塞缪尔·佩皮斯的海军考试，以及麦考利的信念，即对任何事物（即使是炼金术或切罗基语）的严格考试都能揭示出最优秀的头脑。
Christodoulou dismantles that idea with evidence that skills are stubbornly domain-specific: chess masters, surgeons, even Steven Spielberg couldn't simply transfer their brilliance elsewhere.
克里斯托杜卢驳斥了这一观点，他用证据证明技能顽固地具有特定领域性：国际象棋大师、外科医生，甚至史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格都无法简单地将他们的才华转移到其他地方。
Along the way they wrestle with meritocracy, why bureaucracies fail without feedback, and whether great teachers must resist irony.
一路上，他们都在与精英主义、为什么官僚机构在没有反馈的情况下失败以及伟大的教师是否必须抵制讽刺等问题进行斗争。
A rich, wide-ranging discussion that will change how you think about testing and expertise.
内容丰富、范围广泛的讨论将改变您对测试和专业知识的看法。
I believe there is a stronger steel man case that could be made in support of a particular application for “Macaulay’s belief that a hard exam on anything–even alchemy or the Cherokee language–reveals the best minds”.
我相信有一个更强有力的钢铁侠案例可以用来支持“麦考利的信念，即对任何事物——甚至是炼金术或切罗基语言——的严格考试都能揭示出最优秀的头脑”的特定应用。
Most of the empirical evidence mentioned in the episode showed that the skills and knowledge that one learned by studying some-other-hard-subject X did not tend to transfer to other tasks.
这一集中提到的大多数经验证据表明，通过学习其他困难科目 X 学到的技能和知识往往不会转移到其他任务中。
That’s fine.
没关系。
Let’s take as a given the even stronger assumption that there will be zero transfer of acquired skills or knowledge from hard-subject X to the field of actual interest.
让我们假设一个更强有力的假设，即从困难学科 X 到实际感兴趣的领域所获得的技能或知识将零转移。
Take as a given that the skills and knowledge from studying Greek or Latin or alchemy or whatever does not mean you are now well equipped to be a doctor or a leader in the royal navy.
假设学习希腊语、拉丁语、炼金术或其他什么的技能和知识并不意味着你现在有能力成为一名医生或皇家海军的领导人。
Consider instead a different question.
考虑一个不同的问题。
Suppose that instead of choosing who will now be a doctor or who will now command a ship in the navy, you are trying to decide which candidates will be chosen for the limited number of openings to enter medical school or enter the naval academy.
假设您不是选择现在谁将成为一名医生或谁将指挥海军舰艇，而是试图决定为进入医学院或进入海军学院的有限名额选择哪些候选人。
It is pointless to test for proficiency in the subjects they will be taught.
测试他们将要教授的科目的熟练程度是毫无意义的。
Assume the candidates do not yet have those skills or that knowledge.
假设候选人尚不具备这些技能或知识。
That will be the point of the instruction they would receive, if admitted.
如果被录取，这将是他们将收到的指示的重点。
If you are offering training in some highly complex and difficult domain, what you may want to know is which of these candidates already shows demonstrated aptitude for mastering some other highly complex and difficult domain — of any kind .
如果您正在某个高度复杂和困难的领域提供培训，您可能想知道这些候选人中哪些人已经表现出掌握其他高度复杂和困难的领域（任何类型）的能力。
You don’t care whether their acquired skills and knowledge from that other domain transfer or not.
你并不关心他们是否从其他领域转移中获得了技能和知识。
Assume the skills and knowledge don’t transfer at all.
假设技能和知识根本不会转移。
What you are assessing is the best available indication of whether they will be able to master the new domain of this training program, based on previously mastering some other difficult domain.
您正在评估的是他们是否能够在之前掌握其他一些困难领域的基础上掌握此培训计划的新领域的最佳可用指示。
Which potential students are most likely to swim rather than drown, if they take this on?
如果他们接受这个任务，哪些潜在的学生最有可能游泳而不是淹死？
There is a difference between looking for the knowledge and skills provided by mastering some-hard-subject X (which probably do not transfer), and instead looking for the ability to learn and master a difficult domain of expertise when given the challenging training for that new domain.
寻找通过掌握某些困难科目 X（可能不会迁移）所提供的知识和技能，与在接受新领域的挑战性培训时寻找学习和掌握困难专业领域的能力之间是有区别的。
It is not “What have you learned?”, but rather “Who are the strongest proven learners?”
这不是“你学到了什么？”，而是“谁是经过验证的最强大的学习者？”
The proper use for this kind of examination would be for admission to the training program for the desired difficult domain.
此类考试的正确用途是参加所需困难领域的培训计划。
To add to this point, in addition to selecting for very smart, very hard working people it sounds like the exams tested some abilities that were genuinely relevant to service in the British colonies: (A) facility with languages, and (B) the ability to understand people and cultures very different from one’s own.
补充一点，除了选择非常聪明、工作非常努力的人之外，听起来考试还测试了一些与在英国殖民地服务真正相关的能力：（A）语言能力，以及（B）理解与自己截然不同的人民和文化的能力。
Additionally, thinking about Ancient Greece and Rome a lot also seems to encourage reflection on the impermanence of empires and the ways ideas and cultures persist over very long periods of time.
此外，大量思考古希腊和罗马似乎也鼓励人们反思帝国的无常以及思想和文化在很长一段时间内持续存在的方式。
I’m sure the system was far from perfect, but I’m not convinced you could have done a lot better.
我确信这个系统远非完美，但我不相信你可以做得更好。
Eric, this is simply the signaling model which Russ mentions in passing.
Eric，这只是 Russ 顺便提到的信号模型。
I would liked to have seen this explored more fully in the episode.
我希望看到这一点在这一集中得到更充分的探索。
If you think transfer is near-zero, then education becomes all signaling (Bryan Caplan’s position).
如果你认为转移率接近于零，那么教育就变成了所有信号（布莱恩·卡普兰的立场）。
Wholeheartedly agree with Eric, especially in fields where information and skills are always changing— military and medicine are good examples, but there are plenty more.
完全同意埃里克的观点，尤其是在信息和技能不断变化的领域——军事和医学就是很好的例子，但还有更多。
Every physician can look back on the extensive runup to medical school and question the requirements.
每个医生都可以回顾医学院的广泛准备并质疑这些要求。
Have I ever, in 50+ years of practice, given a single thought to calculus or organic chemistry?
在 50 多年的实践中，我曾经想过微积分或有机化学吗？
I knew I was training to be a doctor, not a chemist or engineer; so the requirements could certainly be trimmed— although, as Eric points out, running a gauntlet of prerequisites does require a modicum of intelligence and a whole lot of persistence.
我知道我正在接受训练成为一名医生，而不是化学家或工程师；因此，这些要求当然可以减少——尽管，正如埃里克指出的那样，满足一系列先决条件确实需要一点点的智慧和大量的毅力。
What medical educators have always wanted, however, was a way to track emotional intelligence.
然而，医学教育者一直想要的是一种追踪情商的方法。
Still looking for that program.
仍在寻找该程序。
On a related subject, Mortimer Adler once gave an insightful lecture titled “Everybody’s Business.” As the founder of a classical K-12 school, I was persuaded that there was a way to orient the teaching of many subjects toward generalists, rather than specialists.
在一个相关的主题上，莫蒂默·阿德勒（Mortimer Adler）曾经发表过一篇题为“每个人的事”的富有洞察力的演讲。作为一所经典 K-12 学校的创始人，我相信有一种方法可以将许多科目的教学面向通才，而不是专家。
It is, I think, useful for students to read Shakespeare, but not to debate who wrote Shakespeare.
我认为，学生读莎士比亚很有用，但争论莎士比亚是谁写的却没有用。
It wouldn’t hurt every high school senior to understand the Krebs Cycle without diving deeply into biochemical formulas.
如果不深入研究生化公式，了解克雷布斯循环对每个高中生来说并没有什么坏处。
Comprehending the wonders of a geometrical proof wouldn’t hurt, either.
理解几何证明的奇迹也没有什么坏处。
E.D.
教育部
Hirsch, in his book Cultural Literacy , also made a good case for the accumulation of background knowledge in the education of a generalist.
赫希在他的《文化素养》一书中，也为通才教育中背景知识的积累提供了很好的案例。
I have absolutely no such knowledge about hip-hop, its origins, or its practitioners— and no desire or need to gain that knowledge.
我对嘻哈音乐、它的起源或它的从业者完全没有这样的了解——也没有欲望或需要获得这些知识。
But we are presently experiencing the problems which arise when college graduates have insufficient background in history or economics.
但目前我们正面临着大学毕业生历史或经济背景不足所带来的问题。
There is no doubt that educational pedagogy has run off the rails over the past century.
毫无疑问，在过去的一个世纪里，教育学已经脱离了轨道。
Whether the democratic experiment survives may depend upon adopting various forms of classical education from the bottom up through college.
民主实验能否成功可能取决于自下而上到大学采用各种形式的古典教育。
This episode, especially the last 15 minutes, made me think of the Turgenev novel “Fathers and Sons”.
这一集，尤其是最后15分钟，让我想起了屠格涅夫的小说《父子》。
It’s a quick read.
这是一本快速阅读的书。
If you haven’t read it you might enjoy it.
如果您还没有读过，您可能会喜欢它。
I like the Constance Garnett translation.
我喜欢康斯坦斯·加内特的翻译。
As always, thank you for such an interesting podcast.
一如既往，感谢您提供如此有趣的播客。
I’ve been listening to EconTalk ever since my phone had a podcast player.
自从我的手机有播客播放器以来，我就一直在听 EconTalk。
~15?
〜15？
years?
年？
Among the happy outcomes for me, you introduced me to Smith’s Theory of Moral Sentiments.
对我来说，快乐的结果之一是你向我介绍了史密斯的道德情感理论。
I spoke about it at home so much my 18 yo daughter requested we read it together this summer.
我在家里经常谈论这本书，我 18 岁的女儿要求我们今年夏天一起读这本书。
As a dad, it was a joy to be asked:) In her case, she prefers to get to the primary source when possible, so ideas and concepts I shared from Smith she needed to read firsthand rather than accept my (biased) interpretation.
作为一名父亲，被问到是一件很高兴的事:)就她而言，她更喜欢尽可能找到主要来源，所以我从史密斯那里分享的想法和概念，她需要亲自阅读，而不是接受我的（有偏见的）解释。
(Succinctly, she wanted to fact check me.) She’s now off to one of those old New England colleges which, of late, has a poor reputation for open conversations and free expression.
（简而言之，她想核实我的事实。）她现在要去一所新英格兰的老牌大学，最近，这所大学在公开对话和自由表达方面名声不佳。
I hope her penchant to ask uncomfortable questions doesn’t cause her too much discomfort, although I’d rather that than have that curiosity squelched.
我希望她提出不舒服的问题的习惯不会给她带来太大的不适，尽管我宁愿这样也不愿让她的好奇心被压制。
Relating to this episode, I wonder why students don’t push back on the college faculty, administration and fellow students who advocate for censorship; self-censorship; shouting down of “unpopular” speakers; and even accept violence.
关于这一事件，我想知道为什么学生们不抵制主张审查制度的大学教师、行政人员和同学；自我审查；大声斥责“不受欢迎”的演讲者；甚至接受暴力。
(See the recent FIRE.org releases about free speech on campus.) Aren’t students supposed to rebel against the status quo?
（请参阅 FIRE.org 最近发布的有关校园言论自由的信息。）学生难道不应该反抗现状吗？
Are many students in fancy-pants schools graduating with neither critical thinking habits nor marketable skills?
是不是很多花哨学校的学生毕业时既没有批判性思维习惯，也没有适销对路的技能？
In any case, thank you again for so many great conversations.
无论如何，再次感谢您进行了如此多的精彩对话。
I have learned so much.
我学到了很多。
And I have enjoyed so much.
我很享受。
You have enriched my life and also enriched my family.
你丰富了我的生活，也丰富了我的家庭。
I am very much interested in the Taiping rebellion and, for podcast listeners, I would strongly recommend the current series on it in Chris Stewart’s History of China podcast.
我对太平天国运动非常感兴趣，对于播客听众，我强烈推荐克里斯·斯图尔特的中国历史播客中当前的系列节目。
Have to say I found the reference to it in this interview a red herring.
不得不说，我发现这次采访中提到它是为了转移注意力。
Hong Xiuquan did not fail the exams and have a breakdown because they were testing the wrong subjects.
洪秀全并没有因为考错科目而考试不及格、精神崩溃。
The reality is that there were few jobs and Hong was just not good enough in comparison with other candidates to get one.
现实情况是，工作机会很少，而与其他候选人相比，洪的表现不够好，无法找到一份工作。
More generally I agree with Eric’s comments above.
更广泛地说，我同意埃里克上面的评论。
What was being sought in both the Chinese and British systems was administrators able to turn their hand to a large variety of tasks and duties for which it was hard to prepare in advance and technical knowledge had only limited benefit.
中国和英国的系统所追求的目标是，管理者能够将自己的手交给各种各样的任务和职责，而这些任务和职责很难提前做好准备，而且技术知识的作用也很有限。
They were not selecting amongst medical students.
他们没有在医学生中进行选择。
Now, as an MBA myself, I have to believe it was possible to improve on learning the classics as the basis for selection.
现在，作为一名MBA本人，我不得不相信，学习经典作为选拔的基础是可以提高的。
That said, I spent a number of years working for a prestigious British organisation whose management echelons were populated by people who had been through the Oxbridge university system in a variety of subjects, and with technical knowledge I considered inferior to mine in the subjects on which I was interacting with them.
也就是说，我在一家享有盛誉的英国组织工作了多年，该组织的管理梯队成员都是在牛津剑桥大学系统的各个学科上都受过教育的人，而在我与他们互动的学科中，我认为他们的技术知识不如我。
But I was nearly always impressed by the ease at which they were able to grasp the key issues in these technical areas.
但我几乎总是对他们能够轻松掌握这些技术领域的关键问题印象深刻。
I was in no doubt that, even if they were not perfect, they were better men than me.
我毫不怀疑，即使他们并不完美，他们也是比我更好的人。
(Well the majority were men, but my conclusion also applied to women in these positions).
（大多数是男性，但我的结论也适用于担任这些职位的女性）。
Have to say I did not find this interview very convincing.
不得不说我觉得这次采访没有什么说服力。
A bit of confirmation bias, I feared.
我担心有点确认偏差。
But I would admit to being a cynic.
但我承认我是一个愤世嫉俗者。
I was an officer in the US Navy.
我是美国海军的一名军官。
My degree is in History.
我的学位是历史学。
You had to obtain a passing score on the Officer Aptitude Test (really an IQ test) to determine if you were trainable.
您必须在军官能力测试（实际上是智商测试）中获得及格分数，以确定您是否可以接受培训。
I learned naval engineering, navigation, weapons systems, military law, communications, and more – before I was assigned to my first ship (a guided missile frigate).
在被分配到我的第一艘舰艇（导弹护卫舰）之前，我学习了海军工程、导航、武器系统、军事法、通信等。
I received excellent initial training for my assignment, but obviously had a lot more to learn when.
我接受了出色的任务初始培训，但显然还有很多东西需要学习。
When we qualified for a watch-standing position on the ship – we had to pass an oral board.
当我们有资格获得船上值班职位时，我们必须通过口头委员会。
They’re called “murder boards” for a reason.
他们被称为“谋杀委员会”是有原因的。
You had to know a tremendous amount about the position you were trying to qualify for – and there was no way to BS through it.
你必须对你想要获得的职位有大量的了解——而且没有办法通过它来胡说八道。
Just had to pop up to see if anyone had picked Russ (and Claude) up on misidentifing “Wrangler”, which I believe was a reference to this:
只是不得不弹出来看看是否有人发现拉斯（和克劳德）误认了“牧马人”，我相信这是指的是这个：
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wrangler_(University_of_Cambridge)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wrangler_(剑桥大学)
A classic example of some domain-specific knowledge.
一些特定领域知识的经典示例。
I’m sure Daisy knew this but was just too polite…
我确信黛西知道这一点，但她太有礼貌了……
Additional ideas and people mentioned in this podcast episode:
本播客节目中提到的其他想法和人物：
A few more readings and background resources:
更多阅读材料和背景资源：
More related EconTalk podcast episodes, by Category:
更多相关的 EconTalk 播客剧集，按类别：
* As an Amazon Associate, Econlib earns from qualifying purchases.
* 作为亚马逊合作伙伴，Econlib 通过符合条件的购买赚取收入。
Intro.
简介。
[Recording date: July 21st, 2026.]
[记录日期：2026年7月21日。]
Russ Roberts: Today is July 21st, 2026, and my guest is Daisy Christodoulou.
Russ Roberts：今天是 2026 年 7 月 21 日，我的嘉宾是 Daisy Christodoulou。
Daisy is the Director of Education at No More Marking, a provider of evaluation software for schools.
Daisy 是 No More Marking 的教育总监，该公司是一家学校评估软件提供商。
She was last here in March of 2025, talking about education and feedback.
她上次来是在 2025 年 3 月，谈论教育和反馈。
Daisy, welcome back to EconTalk.
黛西，欢迎回到 EconTalk。
Daisy Christodoulou: Great to be here, Russ.
Daisy Christodoulou：很高兴来到这里，拉斯。
Russ Roberts: Now, our topic for today is the intersection between meritocracy, education, governance, but we're going to go back in time and look at some crazy historical moments in civil service history, and we're going to start with a failed Chinese civil servant exam taker, Hong Xiuquan.
拉斯·罗伯茨：现在，我们今天的主题是精英政治、教育、治理之间的交叉点，但我们要回到过去，看看公务员史上一些疯狂的历史时刻，我们将从一位失败的中国公务员考试考生洪秀全开始。
Why is he interesting?
他为什么有趣？
Daisy Christodoulou: So, Hong Xiuquan is really interesting because he's probably the instigator of the worst civil war--maybe the worst war--in history.
黛西·赫里斯托杜卢：所以，洪秀全真的很有趣，因为他可能是历史上最严重的内战——也许是最严重的战争——的煽动者。
It's not very well known in the West.
它在西方并不是很出名。
And in fact, one of the leading American historians of this war, this civil war, has said that he didn't even read about it till he was an undergraduate.
事实上，研究这场战争、这场内战的美国一位顶尖历史学家曾表示，他直到大学时期才读到过这方面的内容。
So, it's remarkably kind of not very well known in the world, given how significant it is and how major a factor it is in Chinese history.
因此，考虑到它在中国历史上的重要性和影响力，它在世界上的知名度显然不是很高。
And, Hong Xiuquan, he's basically a failed civil service candidate.
还有洪秀全，他基本上是一个失败的公务员候选人。
And, this all takes place in the mid-19th century in China.
而这一切都发生在19世纪中叶的中国。
And at that time, China has these very rigorous exams to become a civil servant.
当时中国要成为公务员有非常严格的考试。
So, if you want to become a civil servant in 19th century China, you sit for these very, very tough exams.
所以，如果你想在 19 世纪的中国成为一名公务员，你就必须参加这些非常非常艰难的考试。
They have multiple stages.
他们有多个阶段。
So, you will sit some that are just close to your village; you will sit some, you'll go to the provincial level.
所以，你会坐在一些离你的村庄很近的地方；你会坐一些，你会去省级。
And, by the mid-19th century, these exams have been around for centuries.
到 19 世纪中叶，这些考试已经存在了几个世纪。
And, China's population has been increasing over that time, but the number of openings--number of job openings available for the exam takers--hasn't gone up.
而且，中国的人口在这段时间内一直在增加，但职位空缺的数量——为考生提供的职位空缺的数量——却没有增加。
So, it's very intense competition, and you have all of these incredibly bright young Chinese men studying really hard to try and pass these exams.
所以，这是非常激烈的竞争，所有这些非常聪明的中国年轻人都非常努力地学习，试图通过这些考试。
And, they're tough exams, and you have to go away for the provincial ones, and they're three days, and you're sitting in cells working away at these exams.
而且，考试很艰难，你必须去参加省级考试，考试为期三天，你要坐在牢房里努力参加这些考试。
And, if you fail them, you can take them again.
而且，如果你失败了，你可以再次参加。
And, they don't happen every year; they happen every couple of years.
而且，它们并不是每年都会发生；而是每年都会发生。它们每隔几年就会发生一次。
And, what you have is--you might see some parallels with today--you have students who are maybe the brightest student in their village, maybe even the brightest student in their province, but they get to the stage where they're competing against all the brightest students from all over China, not very many jobs to have.
而且，你所拥有的是——你可能会看到与今天的一些相似之处——你的学生可能是他们村里最聪明的学生，甚至可能是他们省里最聪明的学生，但他们到了与来自中国各地所有最聪明的学生竞争的阶段，没有太多的工作机会。
So, you can be very bright and have spent years studying and still fail, and not get the job.
因此，你可能非常聪明，花了数年时间学习，但仍然失败，而没有得到这份工作。
And, you have people who take them, carry on taking them into their 40s, 50s, 60s--keep going back and taking them.
而且，有些人在 40 多岁、50 多岁、60 多岁的时候继续带他们——继续回去并带他们。
And, Hong Xiuquan takes them quite a few times, these exams, and he fails them.
而且，洪秀全参加过好几次这些考试，但他都没有通过。
The fourth time he fails them, he's absolutely devastated.
第四次他失败了，他彻底崩溃了。
And, he has what we call now a kind of mental breakdown, and he goes back home to his village, and he's seeing visions.
而且，他患有我们现在所说的一种精神崩溃，当他回到自己的村庄时，他看到了幻象。
And, in the previous times when he's taken these exams, he's also come into contact with some Christian missionaries, and he's picked up a few of their tracts.
而且，他之前参加这些考试的时候，也接触过一些基督教传教士，也拿到过一些他们的小册子。
And so, after this final failure, he's got these tracts on his mind, and he sees these visions that tell him he's the younger brother of Christ.
因此，在这最后的失败之后，他脑海中浮现出这些小册子，他看到这些异象，告诉他他是基督的弟弟。
And he's inspired to start some kind of Millenarian kind of revolution.
他受到启发，开始了某种千禧年式的革命。
And, his first few followers are people like him--his cousin and some friends--people who have also taken these exams and not succeeded.
而且，他最初的几个追随者是像他一样的人——他的表弟和一些朋友——他们也参加了这些考试但没有成功。
And, he basically moves across the countryside kind of picking up an army, and the army grows and grows.
而且，他基本上是在乡村中移动，组建了一支军队，而这支军队不断壮大。
And, as I say, he becomes the leader of what is known now as the Taiping Rebellion, which, as I say, is one of the worst civil wars in history.
正如我所说，他成为了现在所谓的太平天国起义的领导人，正如我所说，这是历史上最严重的内战之一。
Maybe around 30 million people die.
也许大约有 3000 万人死亡。
Eventually, it's put down and he's killed, but not before enormous kind of death, destruction, suffering.
最终，它被镇压了，他被杀了，但在此之前是巨大的死亡、破坏和痛苦。
And, I think a proximate cause of this terrible war is the frustrations, the pent-up frustrations of these young men who are trying to take these exams and failing, and not getting the jobs that they hope.
而且，我认为这场可怕的战争的直接原因是挫败感，这些年轻人被压抑的挫败感，他们试图参加这些考试但失败了，而且没有得到他们希望的工作。
But, I also think you can look, in a way, at what's the ultimate cause of this revolution?
但是，我也认为你可以在某种程度上看看这场革命的最终原因是什么？
Because the exams that Hong Xiuquan is taking, the exams he's taking, they are full of the ancient Chinese classics.
因为洪秀全参加的考试，他参加的考试，都是中国古代的经典。
And, by the time he comes to take them, they're quite stereotyped, and they're quite rigid.
而且，当他来拿它们的时候，它们已经非常刻板，而且非常僵化。
And, there's a particular format called the eight-legged essay, where you have to write an essay that is set out in a really precise and specific way.
而且，有一种特殊的格式，称为八足论文，你必须写一篇以非常精确和具体的方式阐述的论文。
There's nothing on them about the kind of modern Western knowledge of scientific and maths that's transforming the rest of the world.
它们上面没有任何关于正在改变世界其他地方的现代西方科学和数学知识的内容。
So, you can make another argument that certainly the students who failed these exams, it's not great for them, but for the students who passed them and become the bureaucrats who are running China, they're really lacking in the kind of knowledge that is transforming the rest of the world.
所以，你可以提出另一个论点，当然，那些没有通过这些考试的学生，这对他们来说并不是什么好事，但对于那些通过考试并成为管理中国的官僚的学生来说，他们确实缺乏正在改变世界其他地方的知识。
So, you can make a case that these exams play a very important proximate and ultimate role in one of the worst civil wars in history.
因此，您可以证明这些考试在历史上最严重的内战之一中发挥了非常重要的直接和最终作用。
Russ Roberts: So, we could spend an hour on the 19th century Chinese civil service and how the entry to it was controlled, but we are not going to.
拉斯·罗伯茨：所以，我们可以花一个小时来讨论 19 世纪的中国公务员制度以及如何控制进入公务员制度，但我们不会这样做。
We're going to divide it between the Chinese civil service in the 19th century and the British civil service in the--no, actually, we are going to touch on the latter, but we'll move on to other things.
我们将把它分为 19 世纪的中国公务员制度和 19 世纪的英国公务员制度——不，实际上，我们将触及后者，但我们将继续讨论其他事情。
But, it's a fascinating story.
但是，这是一个引人入胜的故事。
It raises a question which I don't think you talked about in a preliminary essay you shared with me, which is: Why were people so eager to be a civil servant in China in 1850, say?
它提出了一个我认为你在与我分享的初步文章中没有提到的问题，即：为什么 1850 年的中国人们如此渴望成为公务员？
And, it raises a general question, which we're going to spend some time on, which is: The prestige and pay and honor that's associated with the civil service differs wildly by culture and country, and the significance of the civil service, the bureaucracy, I think, varies quite a bit.
而且，它提出了一个我们将花一些时间讨论的普遍问题，即：与公务员制度相关的声望、薪酬和荣誉因文化和国家的不同而有很大差异，而且我认为公务员制度和官僚机构的重要性也有很大差异。
So, let's start with China: Why were people so eager to have these jobs?
那么，让我们从中国开始：为什么人们如此渴望获得这些工作？
Daisy Christodoulou: So look, I don't want to over-claim and pretend to be an expert in China.
Daisy Christodoulou：所以你看，我不想过分宣称自己是中国专家。
My entry into this has been through exams, and my specialism is assessment and exams.
我是通过考试进入这个行业的，我的专长是评估和考试。
But, I think, obviously, when you just see the sheer numbers of young boys--and it is boys who are studying for these exams--you can read some of the literature that the failed candidates leave behind.
但是，我认为，显然，当你看到年轻男孩的绝对数量时——而且是男孩正在为这些考试而学习——你可以阅读一些失败的考生留下的文献。
For whatever reason, it is hugely prestigious.
无论出于何种原因，它都享有盛誉。
I think it's partly there aren't many other jobs, or outlets, for if you have academic tendencies and you enjoy reading and you enjoy studying, so there's not much else that, necessarily, you can do that will give you a living.
我认为部分原因是没有太多其他工作或出路，因为如果你有学术倾向并且你喜欢阅读和学习，那么你就没有什么其他可以让你谋生的事情了。
And, in fact, when these candidates fail, a lot of the time the only option for them is to go back to their village and become a teacher and to try and teach the next students who are coming through, and see if that can get them to succeed.
事实上，当这些候选人失败时，很多时候他们唯一的选择就是回到自己的村庄，成为一名教师，并尝试教导下一个即将通过的学生，看看这是否能让他们成功。
So, there aren't necessarily many other things you can do.
因此，您不一定可以做很多其他事情。
And, I think, yeah, the prestige and the power--the civil service in any society is powerful.
而且，我认为，是的，任何社会的公务员队伍的威望和权力都是强大的。
That they do have powers.
他们确实有权力。
And, for young men from lower social backgrounds, again, in any society, you would say it's one of the few ways of advancement and the few ways to develop yourself.
而且，对于来自较低社会背景的年轻人来说，在任何社会中，你都会说这是为数不多的进步方式之一，也是为数不多的自我发展方式之一。
Russ Roberts: You said something kind of shocking to me a minute ago.
拉斯·罗伯茨：你一分钟前说了一些让我震惊的话。
You said something about how the bureaucracy runs the country.
你谈到了官僚机构如何管理国家。
Now, the bureaucracy often thinks they run the country, and people are often under the illusion that even a dictator runs the country, when a dictator can't run the country either.
现在，官僚常常认为他们在治理国家，人们常常抱有这样的幻想：即使是独裁者也能治理国家，而独裁者也不能治理国家。
But certainly, in modern democratic states, the bureaucracy doesn't run the country, although they may run parts of it in a more serious way than the legislature runs the country, or the so-called president, or whoever is the leader, the prime minister.
但可以肯定的是，在现代民主国家中，官僚机构并不管理国家，尽管他们管理部分国家的方式可能比立法机关管理国家、或所谓的总统、或任何领导人、总理更严肃。
But, I want to go back a sec and just talk about your specialty, which is exams.
但是，我想回过头来谈谈你的专业，那就是考试。
Because, on the surface, if you think it's important that the bureaucrats who are, quote, "running the country" are skilled and capable, an exam has an appeal--because otherwise, it's who you know, and so on.
因为，从表面上看，如果你认为“治国”官僚的技术和能力很重要，那么考试就有吸引力——因为否则，考试就是你认识的人，等等。
And, what's remarkable about the Chinese exam--and will prove remarkable about the British case when we turn to it--is that the content of these exams is not what you or I would design to make sure that the best ended up on top.
而且，中国考试的非凡之处——当我们转向英国的情况时，也会证明它的非凡之处——是这些考试的内容不是你我所设计的，以确保最好的人最终名列前茅。
So, talk about what happened in England around this time and the reforms that were made, and how peculiar they were, and strange.
那么，谈谈英国这段时间发生的事情以及进行的改革，以及它们是多么奇特和奇怪。
Daisy Christodoulou: Absolutely.
黛西·克里斯托杜卢：当然。
So, by really a kind of historical coincidence, a historical irony, as this terrible civil war is breaking out in China, and almost literally hours of news of it is making its way back to Britain, Britain is engaged in a big national debate about how it should recruit and select its own civil servants.
因此，当这场可怕的内战在中国爆发，几乎几个小时的新闻传回英国时，英国正在进行一场关于如何招募和选择自己的公务员的全国性大辩论，这确实是一种历史巧合，一种历史讽刺。
And obviously, Britain, at this time, has an empire; so, in particular, it has India.
显然，此时的英国已经拥有了一个帝国。因此，特别是印度。
Now, India, at this point, is in flux as well, but essentially, Britain is either directly or indirectly ruling vast swaths of the Indian subcontinent.
现在，印度也在不断变化，但本质上，英国直接或间接统治着印度次大陆的大片地区。
And, also, you have a lot of changes going on at home, and you have a lot of growth in the home civil service, as you might call it.
而且，国内正在发生很多变化，国内公务员队伍也有很大的发展，正如你所说的那样。
So, there's an increasing debate about what's the best way to pick all of these administrators and to recruit them.
因此，关于挑选和招募所有这些管理员的最佳方式的争论越来越多。
And as you say, one problem you get when it comes to recruiting bureaucrats and recruiting administrators who are going to run the show, whether you think they're really running the show or not, I think that it's fair to say they have at least some opportunities for power and influence, even if they're not necessarily always running things in the way they might think.
正如你所说，当涉及到招募官僚和招聘管理人员来主持大局时，你会遇到一个问题，无论你是否认为他们真的在主持大局，我认为可以公平地说，他们至少有一些获得权力和影响力的机会，即使他们不一定总是按照他们想象的方式运作事情。
The risk is that you get people just appointing on for patronage, basis of nepotism, people giving jobs to their mates' nephew.
风险在于，人们只是为了庇护而任命，这是裙带关系的基础，人们把工作让给他们配偶的侄子。
So that's a risk.
所以这是一个风险。
And, if you want people who are competent to do the job, as you say, one thing you can do is say, 'We'll have an exam.' But, it really matters what is on the exam.
而且，如果你想要有能力胜任这项工作的人，正如你所说，你可以做的一件事就是说，“我们将进行考试。”但是，考试内容确实很重要。
And, on the Chinese civil service exam at that time, as I say, is really a lot of ancient classical Chinese knowledge and languages, and this eight-legged essay.
而且，当时的中国公务员考试，就像我说的，真的是很多古代文言知识和语言，还有这篇八条腿的文章。
And Britain are kicking around ideas and saying, 'Well, what goes on?
英国正在讨论各种想法并说，‘好吧，发生了什么？
If we're going to have an exam, what should go on the exam?'
如果我们要考试，应该考什么？
And, there have been a few kind of experiments prior to this time, and there are a few places where exams are starting to be used.
而且，在此之前已经进行了一些实验，并且有一些地方开始使用考试。
But there is this major point in 1854 where a major Report is written that proposes there should be one central exam for applicants to the civil service--the British Civil Service--and that this exam basically should consist of a lot of knowledge of the classical languages of Greek and Latin.
但在 1854 年有一个重要的点，其中写了一份重要报告，建议应该为公务员系统（英国公务员系统）的申请者举办一次中央考试，并且该考试基本上应该包括希腊语和拉丁语古典语言的大量知识。
And, these are very prestigious at the time in Britain.
而且，这些在当时的英国非常有声望。
They're taught in a lot of the public schools, the great public schools.
许多公立学校、优秀的公立学校都教授这些课程。
They're taught at the famous ancient universities, Oxford and Cambridge.
他们在著名的古代大学牛津和剑桥任教。
And, you have two administrators of the time--a guy called Stafford Northcote, another man called Charles Trevelyan--who write a Report that essentially proposes that these curriculums, with a heavy emphasis on ancient Greek and Latin, should become the basis for the exam that selects for civil servants.
而且，当时有两位行政人员——一个叫斯塔福德·诺斯科特，另一个叫查尔斯·特里维廉——他们写了一份报告，基本上建议这些课程，重点强调古希腊语和拉丁语，应该成为选拔公务员考试的基础。
Russ Roberts: And, the Report basically gets implemented, and this is the--
拉斯·罗伯茨：而且，报告基本上得到了实施，这是——
Daisy Christodoulou: Yeah, pretty much.
黛西·克里斯托杜卢：是的，差不多。
Yeah.
是的。
So, the Report is commissioned by William Gladstone, who is obviously a quite famous Prime Minister eventually.
所以，这份报告是由威廉·格莱斯顿委托撰写的，他显然是一位相当著名的首相。
So, it's commissioned by Gladstone.
所以，它是受格莱斯顿委托的。
It's written in 1854.
它写于 1854 年。
It is just a Report, so it isn't immediately an Act of Parliament.
这只是一份报告，因此并不是立即成为议会法案。
But gradually, over the next decade or so, most of its recommendations do become law and are implemented.
但在接下来的十年左右的时间里，其中的大部分建议逐渐成为法律并得到实施。
And, to the extent today that it is now regarded, even in Britain today, as the founding document of the British Civil Service.
而且，在今天的程度上，即使在今天的英国，它也被视为英国公务员制度的创始文件。
So, a very senior official currently in the British Civil Service--actually, I think he lost his job a couple of months ago--but a very senior figure, Ollie Robbins, has said very recently: 'Northcote-Trevelyan,' the Northcote-Trevelyan Report, as it's known, 'is the founding document of the Modern Civil Service.'
因此，目前英国公务员制度中的一位非常高级的官员——实际上，我认为他几个月前就失业了——但是一位非常资深的人物奥利·罗宾斯最近表示：“诺斯科特-特里维廉”，众所周知的诺斯科特-特里维廉报告，“是现代公务员制度的创始文件。”
So, it's been hugely influential, and it does come in for its fair share of discussion.
因此，它具有巨大的影响力，并且确实引起了相当多的讨论。
And, it's become something that's been discussed a little bit more lately, as I think people wonder about modern Britain, and modern Britain civil service, and whether modern Britain civil service is as effective as it should be.
而且，最近它已经成为人们讨论的话题，因为我认为人们想知道现代英国和现代英国公务员制度，以及现代英国公务员制度是否像应有的那样有效。
And, if some of the problems of that do go back all the way to this Northcote-Trevelyan Report.
而且，如果其中的一些问题确实可以追溯到这份诺斯科特-特里维廉报告。
Russ Roberts: So, I want to set this next part up a little bit with some background and some things to think about for listeners, and for you and me, Daisy.
拉斯·罗伯茨：所以，我想为下一部分做一些背景介绍，并为听众以及你和我，黛西，一些需要思考的事情。
Because, you could take this conversation so far to be about some obscure exam in 19th-century England, and who cares about Northcote-Trevelyan?
因为，到目前为止，你可以把这次谈话视为 19 世纪英国的一些不起眼的考试，谁关心诺斯科特-特里维廉呢？
But, here's what's important, and I want to bring in a couple other things.
但是，这才是重要的，我想介绍一些其他的事情。
America is pretty disdainful of its bureaucratic system.
美国对其官僚体系相当蔑视。
Americans do not look at, quote, "bureaucrats"--the polite term is 'administrators'; the more negative term is 'bureaucrats'--and, say, Health and Human Services [HHS] or various--Department of Education--they don't have a lot of prestige.
美国人并不看待、引用“官僚”——礼貌用语是“行政人员”；更负面的术语是“官僚”——比如卫生与公众服务部 [HHS] 或各种——教育部——他们没有太多威望。
And a lot of people would say they don't do a very good job.
很多人会说他们做得不太好。
At the other end, for both the United Kingdom and the United States, you have the military, and the standards and excellence is totally different.
另一方面，对于英国和美国来说，都有军队，而且标准和卓越程度完全不同。
One might suppose that's because one is a matter of life and death and one isn't.
人们可能会认为这是因为一个人事关生死，而另一个人则不然。
So, indulging in hiring students who are good at Latin and Greek, you could say, 'Well, who cares if the Treasury Department has a lot of those?
因此，在雇用擅长拉丁语和希腊语的学生时，你可能会说，‘好吧，谁在乎财政部是否有很多这样的学生呢？
It's not so important.' But, when it comes to military failures, you want them to be able to know what they're doing, so you'd want a different test for the Royal Navy or the U.S. Air Force, or the Marines, or the U.S. Army.
这并不那么重要。但是，当谈到军事失败时，您希望他们能够知道自己在做什么，因此您希望对皇家海军、美国空军、海军陆战队或美国陆军进行不同的测试。
Now, before we get to--I just want to put that on the table in terms of the importance of this, but I want to also talk about this reform.
现在，在我们开始讨论之前，我只想谈谈这一点的重要性，但我也想谈谈这项改革。
Because, as you point out--and this is extremely interesting to me--basically, they took this prestigious gate of getting into the civil service, and the gatekeeper became, 'Are you really good at what we teach at the two most prestigious universities in the land?' And, it's hard not to view this as a public choice story--meaning the field in economics that assumes policy decisions are made often driven by self-interest and not the national good, or the public good.
因为，正如你所指出的——这对我来说非常有趣——基本上，他们占据了进入公务员队伍的这道享有声望的大门，而把关人变成了，“你真的擅长我们在这片土地上两所最负盛名的大学教授的内容吗？”而且，很难不将此视为公共选择的故事——这意味着经济学领域假设政策决策通常是由自身利益驱动的，而不是国家利益或公共利益。
So, basically, they basically circled the wagons--Northcote and Trevelyan.
所以，基本上，他们基本上围着马车转——诺斯科特和特里维廉。
Forget what they said about it: what they actually did in that report was encourage the British Civil Service to keep hiring people like themselves, people who've gone to Oxford and Cambridge, who were really good at Latin and Greek.
忘记他们所说的吧：他们在那份报告中实际上做的是鼓励英国公务员继续雇用像他们这样的人，那些毕业于牛津和剑桥大学、非常擅长拉丁语和希腊语的人。
And, as you point out in your essay--which is hilarious--people at the time said, 'You know, it really doesn't matter what they study, or what the criteria are, or what the subject matter of the test is.
而且，正如你在你的文章中指出的那样——这很搞笑——当时的人们说，‘你知道，他们学什么，标准是什么，或者测试的主题是什么并不重要。
It just has to be hard.' And that will get the people who are good at hard things, and they'll be skilled.
这一定很困难。这将培养那些擅长困难事情的人，他们会变得很熟练。
They'll be the most skilled people because they could do the hardest things.
他们将成为最有技能的人，因为他们可以做最困难的事情。
Even if it's nonsense.
哪怕是废话。
Thomas Macaulay, the great historian, says, 'Yeah, if they studied astrology, or alchemy, or the Ptolemaic system of astronomy, of the solar system instead of Newton, they're hard to master, and that's what counts.'
伟大的历史学家托马斯·麦考利说：“是的，如果他们研究占星学、炼金术、托勒密天文学体系、太阳系而不是牛顿，他们就很难掌握，但这才是最重要的。”
So, I've thrown a lot on the table here.
所以，我在这里扔了很多东西。
Take a crack at reacting to that.
尝试对此做出反应。
Daisy Christodoulou: Yeah, for sure.
黛西·克里斯托杜卢：是的，当然。
So, I basically agree with what you've said, your view of Northcote-Trevelyan.
所以，我基本上同意你所说的，你对诺斯科特-特里维廉的看法。
But what I will point out to you--so, what you've said, this is a public choice theory.
但我要向你指出的是，正如你所说，这是一个公共选择理论。
This is basically a way of getting people--almost like a self-perpetuating oligarchy--of getting people who look like you, and sound like you, and are like you, into positions of power and influence, and keeping that ticking over.
这基本上是一种让人们——几乎就像一个自我延续的寡头政治——让那些看起来像你、听起来像你、像你一样的人进入权力和影响力的位置，并保持这种状态的方式。
So, I would agree with you on that.
所以，我同意你的观点。
And, as you say, I've got this essay where I kind of make that argument.
而且，正如你所说，我在这篇文章中提出了这样的论点。
However, what I will say is that is not the dominant historical opinion of Northcote-Trevelyan.
然而，我要说的是，这并不是诺斯科特-特里维廉的主导历史观点。
So, as I say, it does have a little bit of fame here in the United Kingdom.
所以，正如我所说，它在英国确实有一点名气。
It's something people kind of think about and talk about.
这是人们思考和谈论的事情。
The dominant, I would say, take on Northcote-Trevelyan is that it's meritocratic and it's a good thing.
我想说，对诺斯科特-特里维廉的主流看法是，它是精英制度，而且是一件好事。
Daisy Christodoulou: And, I would say it's only in the last decade or so that there's been a little bit more revisionist scholarship on that.
黛西·克里斯托杜卢：而且，我想说，只是在过去十年左右的时间里，这方面的修正主义学术才出现了一些。
And, the book that I draw on, that I think makes the revisionist argument really well, is a book by a guy called Michael Coolican, called No Tradesmen and No Women .
而且，我所借鉴的那本书，我认为它很好地阐述了修正主义的论点，是一本名叫迈克尔·库利肯（Michael Coolican）的人写的书，名为《没有商人和没有女人》。
And it's a history of the British Civil Service.
这是英国公务员制度的历史。
And, he takes this quite revisionist stance, where he says, 'Everyone thinks Northcote-Trevelyan is about meritocracy because it introduces exams.' He said, 'But, it isn't about meritocracy.' He has a line where he says, 'Okay, it probably did reduce the opportunities for patronage of the really explicit corrupt type, where you pay someone to give your underperforming nephew a job.' So, it probably does reduce that; but he says it eliminated patronage, but it also eliminated professionalism.
而且，他采取了相当修正主义的立场，他说，“每个人都认为诺斯科特-特里维廉是关于精英管理的，因为它引入了考试。”他说：“但是，这与精英管理无关。”他有一句话说，“好吧，这可能确实减少了赞助真正明显的腐败类型的机会，在这种情况下，你付钱给某人，让你表现不佳的侄子找到一份工作。”所以，它可能确实会减少这种情况；但他表示，这消除了赞助，但也消除了专业精神。
Because, actually, prior to Northcote-Trevelyan, the system is starting to evolve in a lot of important ways to be using exams already, but to be using exams that are relevant to the job you'll be doing.
因为实际上，在 Northcote-Trevelyan 之前，该系统已经开始以许多重要的方式发展，已经使用考试，但要使用与您将要做的工作相关的考试。
So, I would say when I was growing up, the dominant take on Northcote-Trevelyan was, 'Oh, before Northcote-Trevelyan, everything was super-corrupt.
所以，我想说，在我成长的过程中，对诺斯科特-特里维廉的主流看法是，‘哦，在诺斯科特-特里维廉之前，一切都是超级腐败的。
People paid for jobs.
人们为工作付费。
Northcote-Trevelyan came in and professionalized everything.' What I think this guy Michael Coolican is arguing, and what I would agree with, and what I think you were saying too, is actually what was happening is before Northcote-Trevelyan, there definitely was some corruption, but there were also a lot of moves to modernization and professionalism.
诺斯科特-特里维廉 (Northcote-Trevelyan) 进来并把一切都专业化了。我认为迈克尔·库利坎（Michael Coolican）这个人所争论的，我同意的，以及我认为你也在说的，实际上是在诺斯科特-特里维廉之前发生的事情，肯定存在一些腐败，但也有很多现代化和专业化的举措。
There were civil service departments that were using exams that were useful for the specific job that the candidate would be doing.
有些公务员部门正在使用对候选人将从事的特定工作有用的考试。
And actually, Northcote-Trevelyan came in and said, 'We're going to replace all that with one central exam that's going to be based on topics that really have no relevance to the job in hand.'
事实上，诺斯科特-特里维廉进来说，“我们将用一项中心考试取代所有这些，该考试的主题与手头的工作确实无关。”
So, it is a revisionist take.
所以，这是一种修正主义的做法。
It is a controversial one.
这是一个有争议的问题。
And there are people, I think, who have grown up with that standard take on Northcote-Trevelyan who don't like that revisionism, so it is controversial.
我认为，有些人是在诺斯科特-特里维廉的标准观念中长大的，他们不喜欢这种修正主义，所以这是有争议的。
But, I think this book by Michael Coolican does a fantastic job of drawing out a lot of the debates.
但是，我认为迈克尔·库利坎（Michael Coolican）的这本书出色地解决了很多争论。
And in particular, he draws out a lot of the importance of a guy who is the Master of Balliol College at this time, a very important figure behind the scenes.
特别是，他强调了此时贝利奥尔学院院长的重要性，他是幕后非常重要的人物。
He's called Benjamin Jowett, and he is incredibly keen to be getting his classics graduates from Balliol College and Oxford into positions of influence all over the British establishment.
他叫本杰明·乔伊特（Benjamin Jowett），他非常热衷于让他从贝利奥尔学院和牛津大学毕业的古典文学毕业生在整个英国机构中担任有影响力的职位。
And, he's very successful, and he is kind of a major figure in the background of Northcote-Trevelyan and subsequent developments.
而且，他非常成功，是诺斯科特-特里维廉及其后续发展背景中的重要人物。
So, I would agree with you, with how you put it there, but as I say, I would say this is a relatively controversial take, even for him.
所以，我同意你的看法，同意你的说法，但正如我所说，我想说这是一个相对有争议的观点，即使对他来说也是如此。
Russ Roberts: So, talk about the military.
拉斯·罗伯茨：那么，谈谈军队吧。
And, again, I think we can think about bureaucrats who run, say, a welfare program, or a transfer program that distributes money in certain ways, and it could be run better or worse, obviously.
而且，我认为我们可以考虑一下运行福利计划或以某种方式分配资金的转移计划的官僚，显然，这些计划可能会运行得更好或更差。
But, a lot of times what's at stake in these conversations--and you and I recently had a chance to talk about this a little bit in England--is basic, fundamental infrastructure.
但是，很多时候，这些对话中的利害关系——你和我最近有机会在英国谈论这个问题——是基础设施。
And, so, for example, when I was in England recently, a couple trains I was scheduled to take were just canceled out of the blue, with no real--a half an hour before I get on, just canceled, signal issues, I don't know.
举个例子，当我最近在英国时，我原定乘坐的几趟火车突然被取消了，没有真正的——在我上车前半小时，就被取消了，信号问题，我不知道。
I don't know if that's a fair criticism that means the system is not run so well.
我不知道这是否是一个公平的批评，这意味着系统运行得不太好。
You evoked pride for the Elizabeth Line, which I took without any problems while I was in London, and I do like it a lot.
你唤起了我对伊丽莎白线的自豪感，我在伦敦时毫无问题地乘坐了它，而且我非常喜欢它。
And again, we might think about the military, where, 'Oh, well, that plane didn't work,' or 'This aircraft carrier sunk.' It would be unacceptable.
再一次，我们可能会想到军队，“哦，好吧，那架飞机坏了”，或者“这艘航空母舰沉没了。”这是不可接受的。
No one would take it for a minute, and the people who failed there would be fired.
没有人会接受这一分钟，失败的人将被解雇。
That seems to never happen with transportation--infrastructure of that kind.
对于交通这种基础设施来说，这种情况似乎永远不会发生。
There seem to be very little consequences.
似乎后果很小。
Which makes you wonder whether the people who are in the jobs have the skills necessary to do it.
这让你想知道从事这项工作的人是否具备完成这项工作所需的技能。
So, talk a little bit about your take on the military and transportation.
那么，谈谈您对军事和交通的看法。
And, then you can bring in Samuel Pepys, because if we're going to delve into strange moments in British history, we can mention him, although we will not discuss his X-rated diary, but those who are interested can pick it up on their Kindle.
然后你可以把塞缪尔·佩皮斯(Samuel Pepys)请进来，因为如果我们要深入研究英国历史上的奇怪时刻，我们可以提到他，虽然我们不会讨论他的X级日记，但有兴趣的人可以在Kindle上拿起它。
Daisy Christodoulou: So, Russ, I think at the heart of this is a classic EconTalk theme, which we chatted about when I was on an episode before, of feedback loops and price mechanisms.
Daisy Christodoulou：所以，Russ，我认为这个主题的核心是一个经典的 EconTalk 主题，我们在之前的一集节目中讨论过反馈循环和价格机制。
So, the major problem I think you have with bureaucracies is often there isn't a price mechanism; you don't have those feedback loops.
因此，我认为官僚机构面临的主要问题通常是没有价格机制；而是没有价格机制。你没有这些反馈循环。
And actually, when it comes to the military, I know what you're saying--that obviously, the military, in lots of ways, there's more competence there.
事实上，当谈到军队时，我知道你在说什么——显然，军队在很多方面都有更多的能力。
But I think you've also got to be aware throughout history, and in every single country you can think of, there's a history of military mess-ups, too.
但我认为你也必须意识到整个历史，在你能想到的每一个国家中，也都有过军事混乱的历史。
Daisy Christodoulou: Like, military bureaucrats don't always kind of get it right.
Daisy Christodoulou：就像，军事官僚并不总是能做对事情。
And I think what you have in bureaucracies is you don't have a price mechanism.
我认为官僚机构没有价格机制。
Often, there's a reason for that.
通常，这是有原因的。
So, again, I don't want to get too off-topic going into this, but obviously, with the military, you understand why the state has to have control of that, and you don't necessarily want to be outsourcing everything to countries that are your enemy, whatever.
所以，再说一遍，我不想在这个问题上太过离题，但显然，对于军队，你明白为什么国家必须控制它，而且你不一定想将一切外包给你的敌人国家，无论如何。
So, in a lot of proxies[?processes?], you don't have that price signal, you don't have the feedback loops, and things can go awry.
因此，在很多代理[？流程？]中，你没有价格信号，没有反馈循环，事情可能会出错。
And I would say--actually, it's a theme of British military history--that often, after a long period of peace, the first year of wars go really badly and a lot of things go wrong.
我想说——实际上，这是英国军事史的一个主题——在长期的和平之后，战争的第一年往往会非常糟糕，很多事情都会出错。
And then you have a different feedback loop which asserts itself, which is lots of people dying on the battlefield.
然后你就会有一个不同的反馈循环，它会自我主张，即很多人死在战场上。
And, that is almost a replacement for the price mechanism.
而且，这几乎可以替代价格机制。
Daisy Christodoulou: And, in a lot of ways, it is a more brutal master than the price mechanism--
Daisy Christodoulou：而且，从很多方面来说，它是一个比价格机制更残酷的主人——
Daisy Christodoulou: So, the first year of World War I, not just Britain, but every participant country, just have all kinds of crises, where the peacetime military bureaucracy and the civilian bureaucracy was not up to the task of total war.
黛西·赫里斯托杜卢：所以，第一次世界大战的第一年，不仅是英国，每个参战国都面临着各种各样的危机，和平时期的军事官僚机构和文职官僚机构都无法胜任全面战争的任务。
And so, in Britain, we have a famous thing: we have a munitions crisis.
因此，在英国，我们有一件著名的事情：我们面临军火危机。
There just aren't enough shells.
只是贝壳不够。
And, this is something that you have to get a mix, let's say, of civilian bureaucrats, military bureaucrats.
而且，这必须是文职官僚和军事官僚的混合体。
You have a change in the top of government to handle this issue.
你需要更换政府高层来处理这个问题。
So, I think you have issues across the board, all kinds of bureaucracies, that when there isn't a feedback mechanism, things can go wrong, and then you have feedback mechanisms assert themselves, and people have to scramble to keep up and fix things.
因此，我认为存在全面的问题，各种官僚机构，当没有反馈机制时，事情可能会出错，然后反馈机制就会发挥作用，人们必须争先恐后地跟上并修复问题。
And so, if we bring this back to the kind of issue of then how do you select, recruit, and not just actually even select and recruit, but what do you do once you've recruited your bureaucrats?
因此，如果我们把这个问题带回这样的问题，那么你如何选择、招募，甚至不仅仅是选择和招募，而是一旦你招募了你的官僚，你会做什么？
How do you check they're doing the right thing and are keeping the military ready for the eventual war, or keeping whatever system they have got running?
你如何检查他们正在做正确的事情，并让军队为最终的战争做好准备，或者保持他们现有的任何系统运行？
Obviously, you have to be thinking about--actually, exams do form a major part of this.
显然，你必须考虑——实际上，考试确实是其中的一个主要部分。
And, again, it might seem like exams are a really modern technology, but they're not.
再说一遍，考试似乎是一项真正的现代技术，但事实并非如此。
So, as I say, in China, they go back centuries.
所以，正如我所说，在中国，它们可以追溯到几个世纪前。
And, the reason why exams matter is because if you do want a way of selecting for competent people who are going to be able to run these organizations well, an exam is not a bad option.
而且，考试之所以重要，是因为如果您确实想要一种选择能够很好地管理这些组织的有能力的人员的方法，那么考试是一个不错的选择。
And again, we tend to think of exams--in the United Kingdom, people talk about Northcote-Trevelyan in 1854 as being a landmark, and people also talk about how exams for the army don't come in until the late-19th century.
再说一遍，我们倾向于想到考试——在英国，人们谈论 1854 年的诺斯科特-特里维廉考试是一个里程碑，人们还谈论军队考试直到 19 世纪末才开始。
So, there's a set of reforms in the late-19th century, after Northcote-Trevelyan, called the Wolseley reforms, which bring in more meritocratic examinations.
因此，在诺斯科特-特里维廉之后，19 世纪末出现了一系列改革，称为沃尔斯利改革，引入了更多的精英考试。
And I don't know, I feel like for those of you who are keen on Gilbert and Sullivan--I think Gilbert and Sullivan are quite popular in the United States.
我不知道，我觉得对于那些热衷于吉尔伯特和沙利文的人来说——我认为吉尔伯特和沙利文在美国很受欢迎。
Daisy Christodoulou: There's that song, 'He is the very model of a modern major general'--
黛西·克里斯托杜卢：有那首歌，“他是现代少将的典范”——
Daisy Christodoulou: that lists all the things that a modern major general has to know.
Daisy Christodoulou：这列出了现代少将必须知道的所有事情。
And, that's a satire--so it's late-19th century Gilbert and Sullivan--that's a satire on the Wolseley reforms.
而且，这是一部讽刺作品——所以这是 19 世纪末的吉尔伯特和沙利文——这是对沃尔斯利改革的讽刺。
So everyone--they're, again, quite famous, and people will look at those and go, 'Oh, so the army bring in kind of exams in the late-19th century.' And, the Napoleonic Era--so the era before that--officers would buy commissions.
所以每个人——他们再次非常出名，人们会看到这些然后说，“哦，所以军队在 19 世纪末引入了某种考试。”而且，拿破仑时代——也就是之前的时代——军官们会购买佣金。
So, if you wanted to rise in the army, you actually had to be quite wealthy, and you purchased commissions.
所以，如果你想在军队中崛起，你实际上必须非常富有，并且你需要购买佣金。
And that persisted in the army until the late-19th century.
这种情况在军队中一直持续到 19 世纪末。
So, people often say, 'Oh, look, the military has this very kind of un-meritocratic and patronage-based system right up to the 19th century.' But, that is not the whole story.
因此，人们经常说，“哦，看，直到 19 世纪，军队都一直采用这种不任人唯贤、以恩赐为基础的制度。”但是，这还不是故事的全部。
The army, for sure, has quite a patronage-based system up to the late 19th century.
当然，直到 19 世纪末，军队仍然有一个相当基于恩赐的制度。
But, the major service in Britain is not the army.
但是，英国的主要服务不是军队。
The major branch of the military in Britain at this time is the Navy.
此时英国军队的主要分支是海军。
It's the Royal Navy.
这是皇家海军。
France is the great land power.
法国是陆地大国。
Britain, England, is the great sea power.
英国，英格兰，是海上强国。
And actually, for that really important service, which lays the foundation of so much of British power, they had exams for much, much longer.
事实上，对于这项真正重要的服务，它为英国的强大实力奠定了基础，他们的考试时间要长得多。
And, the guy who introduced exams into the Navy way back in 1677--so almost, I think, over 200 years before they introduced the army--and the man who introduces them is a bureaucrat, and he's the famous--he's more famous now for his X-rated diaries--Samuel Pepys.
而且，那个早在 1677 年就在海军中引入考试的人——我认为，几乎比他们引入陆军早了 200 多年——引入考试的人是一名官僚，他是著名的——他现在因他的 X 级日记而更加出名——塞缪尔·佩皮斯。
So, Samuel Pepys, very famous now, not just for slightly naughty diaries, but also diaries that he wrote at the time of some great upheaval in London, so he gives us these really vivid firsthand accounts of the Great Fire of London.
所以，塞缪尔·佩皮斯现在非常出名，不仅因为有些顽皮的日记，而且还因为他在伦敦发生一些大动乱时写的日记，所以他给了我们这些关于伦敦大火的非常生动的第一手资料。
And, I grew up a 10-minute walk from where Pepys lived and worked, and I actually have an office next door to where his offices were, so I'm very interested in Pepys.
而且，我长大的地方距离佩皮斯生活和工作的地方只有 10 分钟步行路程，而且我的办公室就在他办公室的隔壁，所以我对佩皮斯非常感兴趣。
He's a completely fascinating figure.
他是一个非常迷人的人物。
And, as I say, he is better known now for these really compelling and vivid firsthand accounts of the Great Fire of London, and for, as I say, some quite X-rated bits in his diaries.
而且，正如我所说，他现在更出名的是对伦敦大火的这些真正引人注目和生动的第一手记录，以及正如我所说的，他日记中的一些相当X级的内容。
But, as a figure at that time, he is incredibly important.
但是，作为当时的一个人物，他是非常重要的。
And in 1677, after a series of quite bad naval defeats to the Dutch, Pepys introduces oral exams for Royal Navy lieutenants because he is concerned about the fact that lieutenants are often well-bred gentlemen with good connections, but they don't really know much about running a ship.
1677 年，在海军对荷兰人进行一系列惨败之后，佩皮斯对皇家海军中尉实行了口试，因为他担心中尉往往是有良好教养、有良好人脉关系的绅士，但他们对管理一艘船并不太了解。
And actually running a ship is really quite hard.
而实际上经营一艘船确实非常困难。
And, at that point, there's a lot of naval innovation going on, and it's not something you can really just bluff your way through.
而且，在这一点上，有很多海军创新正在进行，这不是你可以真正通过虚张声势来实现的。
So, he introduces their oral examinations, and it's a panel of three senior officers who will question the candidate very closely on the practicalities of running a ship.
因此，他介绍了他们的口试，这是一个由三名高级官员组成的小组，他们将就船舶管理的实用性对候选人进行非常仔细的询问。
And then, what you also get come in later, over the next few decades, century, whatever, is you also get quite a lot of written examinations come in.
然后，在接下来的几十年、一个世纪，无论如何，你也会收到相当多的笔试。
So, if you look at some of the most famous characters, not actually just in British naval history, but arguably in all British history, people like Horatio Nelson, James Cook, people like Flinders, Vancouver, Bligh, people who go around the world and chart maps of so many parts of the world, a lot of them have taken exams that were either the ones that, really, Pepys kind of designed or the ones that built on that foundation.
所以，如果你看看一些最著名的人物，不仅在英国海军历史上，而且可以说在整个英国历史上，像霍雷肖·纳尔逊、詹姆斯·库克这样的人，像弗林德斯、温哥华、布莱这样的人，那些走遍世界并绘制世界许多地方地图的人，他们中的很多人都参加了佩皮斯设计的考试或建立在这个基础上的考试。
So, that kind of exam--that really practical examination in cartography, in trigonometry, which you do need to be able to navigate in charting and map making--those really practical examinations are there from really quite an early stage in Britain, and play a really central part in the development of one of its most powerful and competent institutions, the Royal Navy.
因此，这种考试——制图学、三角学方面的真正实用考试，你确实需要能够在制图和地图制作中进行导航——这些真正实用的考试在英国很早就存在，并且在其最强大和最有能力的机构之一——皇家海军的发展中发挥了真正的核心作用。
Russ Roberts: Let's go back to the general idea of an exam, and in the case of the Royal Navy, navigation, certain basic math skills.
拉斯·罗伯茨：让我们回到考试的总体思路，以皇家海军为例，包括导航、某些基本数学技能。
Of course, a lot of it's going to be how to deal with people, which is very hard to have a test for.
当然，很多都是关于如何与人打交道，这是很难测试的。
You can get recommendations from people who have seen you in action doing similar processes.
您可以从见过您执行类似流程的人那里获得建议。
But, one of the big questions, I think, in education today is entry exams into college.
但是，我认为当今教育领域的一大问题是大学入学考试。
A lot of American colleges dropped the SAT [Scholastic Aptitude Test] exam as a gatekeeper, feeling it was either unfair, racist, or ineffective.
许多美国大学作为看门人放弃了 SAT（学术能力倾向测试）考试，认为它要么不公平、有种族主义，要么无效。
A lot of people disagreed with that.
很多人不同意这一点。
A lot of schools have brought that back.
很多学校都恢复了这一点。
But, I want you to talk about this general question of transferable skills.
但是，我想让你谈谈可转移技能这个普遍问题。
And, I made fun of Macaulay earlier, but I want to defend him for a minute and get your reaction.
而且，我早些时候取笑了麦考利，但我想为他辩护一分钟，看看你的反应。
So, Macaulay argues that it doesn't matter what you put on the civil service exam: it just has to be hard.
因此，麦考利认为，公务员考试的成绩并不重要：只要努力就可以了。
And, of course, now we would call this a signaling technique.
当然，现在我们将其称为信号技术。
'We're going to force people to jump through a bunch of hoops, and it almost doesn't matter,' says Macaulay, 'what the hoops are because what we really want are people are good at jumping.' And, since it's prestigious, it's going to attract the smart people, and the smartest ones will figure it out.
麦考利说：“我们将迫使人们跳过一堆铁环，而铁环是什么几乎并不重要，因为我们真正想要的是人们善于跳跃。”而且，由于它享有盛誉，它会吸引聪明的人，而最聪明的人会明白这一点。
The content is not so important.
内容并不是那么重要。
What's important is making sure the cream rises to the top.
重要的是确保奶油升到顶部。
The best people do the jumping, and that's the case.
最优秀的人会跳跃，事实就是如此。
And, you make the point undeniable that, well, wouldn't you want them to learn something that was true ?
而且，你无可否认地指出，你难道不想让他们学到一些真实的东西吗？
And, you can elaborate on that, but I want to defend Macaulay for a minute, suggesting that--I'm not totally comfortable with it, but I'll try--that if you give a really hard exam about something that's really obscure--Sanskrit grammar or Thucydides, which Northcote himself said was part of the reason he was successful--he had read Thucydides in Greek, and that helped him build up his brain, and he got smarter.
而且，你可以详细说明这一点，但我想为麦考利辩护一分钟，建议——我对此不太舒服，但我会尝试——如果你对一些非常晦涩的东西进行一次非常艰难的考试——梵文语法或修昔底德，诺斯科特自己说这是他成功的部分原因——他读过希腊语的修昔底德，这帮助他增强了大脑，他变得更聪明。
It turns out Thucydides, by the way, a lot of what Thucydides wrote probably didn't happen.
顺便说一下，事实证明修昔底德所写的很多内容可能并没有发生。
He exaggerated; he wasn't exactly accurate, 100%.
他夸大了；他并不完全准确，100%。
So, that makes the argument: Through this difficult parsing of this hard text in a difficult language, you find out who the smartest people are, and that's all you really need.
因此，这就构成了这样的论点：通过用一种困难的语言对这个硬文本进行困难的解析，你会发现谁是最聪明的人，而这就是你真正需要的。
What's wrong with that argument?
这个论点有什么问题吗？
Daisy Christodoulou: So, we can view this as a debate for British history between Pepys and Macaulay: that Pepys said, 'We need an exam, and the exam needs to be in stuff that's useful.' And Macaulay said, 'We need an exam, but it doesn't matter what the exam's on; we just want to find the super smart people, and then they can turn their hand to anything.' And, I actually just really want to actually read out what Macaulay says, because people might think we're creating a straw man here--
黛西·克里斯托杜卢：所以，我们可以将此视为佩皮斯和麦考利之间关于英国历史的辩论：佩皮斯说，“我们需要考试，而考试需要是有用的东西。”麦考利说，“我们需要考试，但考试内容并不重要；我们需要考试。”我们只是想找到超级聪明的人，然后他们就可以把手伸向任何事情。”而且，我实际上真的很想读一下麦考利说的话，因为人们可能认为我们正在创造一个稻草人——
Daisy Christodoulou: when we're saying this.
Daisy Christodoulou：当我们这么说的时候。
And, actually, I just want to point out that Macaulay made--he, himself, made--something that sounds like a really extreme straw man argument.
事实上，我只是想指出麦考利提出的——他本人提出的——听起来像是一个非常极端的稻草人论点。
He made that argument, and every time I read it, I am just astonished.
他提出了这个论点，每次我读到它时，我都会感到惊讶。
I cannot believe it.
我简直不敢相信。
Macaulay is a big deal, and he's a big guy, and he's very famous.
麦考利是个大人物，他是个大人物，而且非常出名。
Daisy Christodoulou: Yeah.
黛西·克里斯托杜卢：是的。
And, he's an MP [Member of Parliament].
而且，他是一名国会议员。
He's giving this speech that I'm about to quote from in Parliament.
我将在议会中引用他正在发表的演讲。
After he gives this speech, another MP jumps up and says, 'This speech has never been exceeded within these walls for the development of statesman-like policy and practical good sense.' And, actually, the nice thing about this is, people are a bit down on our politicians now.
在他发表演讲后，另一位议员跳起来说：“在制定政治家般的政策和务实的判断力方面，这篇演讲从未超出过这些范围。”事实上，这样做的好处是，人们现在对我们的政客有些失望了。
I read this speech and the responses it gets, and I think, 'Oh, people must have been crazy,' because this speech has no good sense to my mind.
我读了这篇演讲以及它得到的回应，我想，‘哦，人们一定是疯了，’因为这篇演讲在我看来毫无意义。
This speech is mad.
这言论很疯狂。
Russ Roberts: Before you read it, I want to let listeners know--I think I know what you're going to read, which is: there's a term in here called a 'wrangler.' And, a wrangler is a person who is good at wrangling, meaning not animals, which is the American use of the term, but debating back and forth some topic.
拉斯·罗伯茨：在你读它之前，我想让听众知道——我想我知道你要读什么，那就是：这里有一个术语叫做“争论者”。而且，wrangler是擅长争论的人，意思不是动物，这是美国人对这个词的用法，而是来回辩论某个话题。
And, there's also a term in here, the 'wooden spoon.' And, the wooden spoon, according to Claude--I looked it up and you can verify it--is an award given to the worst person who passes.
而且，这里还有一个术语，“木勺”。而且，根据克劳德的说法——我查了一下，你可以证实这一点——木勺是给通过考试的最差的人的奖励。
So, you know, the joke is: What do you call the person who finishes last in their medical school class?
所以，你知道，这个笑话是：你怎么称呼医学院班级最后一名的人？
And the answer is: Doctor.
答案是：医生。
But, it turned out in England, you got the wooden spoon.
但是，事实证明在英国，你得到的是木勺。
It means you just got across the line.
这意味着你刚刚越线了。
Daisy Christodoulou: And, we still use wooden spoon in sports now, people finishing bottom of something.
Daisy Christodoulou：而且，我们现在在体育运动中仍然使用木勺，人们完成一些东西的底部。
So, it's your term in English, idiom.
所以，这是你的英语术语，习语。
Okay, so here we go.
好的，我们开始吧。
This is Macaulay.
这是麦考利。
This is Macaulay's take on exams.
这是麦考利对考试的看法。
This is 1833:
这是 1833 年：
Okay, that's Macaulay done.
好的，麦考利就这样完成了。
Now we're back to me.
现在我们又回到了我身边。
This is just Macaulay getting carried away with his own eloquence.
这只是麦考利的口才得意忘形而已。
He is literally saying, 'I would rather people study things that are completely wrong, that we know to be completely wrong, like the philosopher's stone,' and that's fine, because if they study those and they do well at it, and they cast nativities the best, then they'll be the smartest guys.
他的字面意思是，“我宁愿人们研究完全错误的东西，我们知道是完全错误的，比如点金石”，那很好，因为如果他们研究这些并且做得很好，并且他们给出最好的出生，那么他们将是最聪明的人。
They'll be the hardest working, most industrious, so that's fine.
他们将是最勤奋、最勤奋的，所以这很好。
Those are the people we want.
这些就是我们想要的人。
What he seems to be completely missing here is that the stuff you study really matters .
他在这里似乎完全忽略了你所学的东西确实很重要。
And, that's why I think--go back to where we opened when we're talking about China in the 19th century.
这就是为什么我想——回到我们一开始谈论 19 世纪的中国。
If you take the most industrious and hardest working, and most ambitious youths of your country, and in the most productive years of their life, teach them things that are wrong, or just not that useful, what is going to happen is there will be other countries who take the same tranche of their students and teach them things that are true and useful.
如果你让你的国家最勤奋、最努力、最雄心勃勃的年轻人，在他们一生中最富有成效的岁月里，教给他们一些错误的东西，或者只是没那么有用的东西，将会发生的事情是，将会有其他国家收留同样一批学生，教给他们真实和有用的东西。
And then where are you going to be?
然后你要去哪里？
Which country do you think is going to come out best?
您认为哪个国家的表现最好？
So, I really just find it astonishing for Macaulay.
所以，我真的觉得麦考利很惊讶。
I think it's just unbelievably misguided.
我认为这是令人难以置信的误导。
Russ Roberts: And, I can't resist the urge--well, I am going to resist that urge.
拉斯·罗伯茨：而且，我无法抗拒这种冲动——好吧，我要抵制这种冲动。
I'll tell you later off air.
稍后我会在广播中告诉你。
But, I'm going to defend Macaulay.
但是，我要为麦考利辩护。
Russ Roberts: Because behind Macaulay's view--so, you're making one point, which is that if you want to incentivize people to master something, you should incentivize them to master something valuable, especially if it might take years, because they could then take that true knowledge, rather than just having jumped through the hoops, and signal that they're the smartest: they actually would have added--besides their raw intelligence--they would have added content that would make them more effective in their job.
拉斯·罗伯茨：因为在麦考利的观点背后，你提出了一个观点，那就是，如果你想激励人们掌握某些东西，你应该激励他们掌握一些有价值的东西，特别是如果这可能需要数年时间，因为他们可以掌握真正的知识，而不仅仅是跳过障碍，并表明他们是最聪明的：除了他们的原始智力之外，他们实际上会添加一些内容，使他们在他们的工作中更加有效。工作。
So, I agree with you 100%.
所以，我100%同意你的观点。
The real question for me--and this is a modern education question, which I know you have views on: Isn't the real question, as you describe it, I think, in your essay, turning the brain into this razor-sharp tool?
对我来说，真正的问题是——这是一个现代教育问题，我知道你对此有自己的看法：我认为，正如你在文章中所描述的那样，真正的问题难道不是把大脑变成这种锋利的工具吗？
And, it doesn't matter whether you study, to take a famous example in Jewish life, the Talmud, which is notoriously difficult.
而且，你是否学习并不重要，以犹太人生活中著名的例子《塔木德》为例，这是出了名的困难。
So, you study the Talmud, and your brain gets more skilled.
所以，你学习《塔木德》，你的大脑就会变得更加熟练。
Okay, you may not agree with what's in the Talmud; you may think it's nonsense.
好吧，你可能不同意《塔木德》中的内容；你可能认为这是无稽之谈。
It's just a myth or superstition.
这只是一个神话或迷信。
But the act of mastering it makes you--many people would say in Jewish life--it'll make you a better lawyer.
但掌握它的行为会让你——很多人在犹太人的生活中会说——会让你成为一名更好的律师。
Because you've studied all these debates back and forth and these cases.
因为你已经反复研究了所有这些辩论和这些案例。
And although the cases may not be relevant, because they're talking about something that doesn't exist anymore in Jewish life, all that really matters is that you've honed your reasoning ability.
尽管这些案例可能不相关，因为它们谈论的是犹太人生活中不再存在的东西，但真正重要的是你已经磨练了你的推理能力。
And that's what education is about.
这就是教育的意义所在。
It's about turning your brain into a powerful tool that you could then--or a search light, you could go across the landscape and turn it on to any topic and illuminate it--because you've got this great brain.
这是关于将你的大脑变成一个强大的工具，然后你就可以——或者是一盏探照灯，你可以穿越风景并将其转向任何主题并照亮它——因为你有这个伟大的大脑。
What's wrong with that argument?
这个论点有什么问题吗？
Daisy Christodoulou: Yeah.
黛西·克里斯托杜卢：是的。
So, what we are kicking around now, this argument we're having, people obviously were having the argument in the 19th century.
所以，我们现在所讨论的，我们所进行的争论，人们显然在 19 世纪就已经进行了争论。
So, Macaulay did not have it all his own way in the 19th century.
所以，麦考利在 19 世纪并没有一意孤行。
People were saying things like I'm saying, at the time.
当时人们说的话就像我说的那样。
And, by the time you get to the late-19th, early-20th century, the people arguing back against the kind of 'just study hard stuff and it will make your brain sharp,' there are people who are arguing back against this.
而且，到了 19 世纪末、20 世纪初，人们反对那种“只要努力学习，它会让你的大脑变得敏锐”的人，也有人反对这一点。
And one of the things that--and so, then they developed, basically, some empirical evidence on this question, which we can take a look at now.
其中一件事——然后他们基本上就这个问题提出了一些经验证据，我们现在可以看一下。
And, actually, one of the most important aspects of this debate is that in the late-19th, early-20th century, medicine is really developing as a science.
事实上，这场争论最重要的一个方面是，在 19 世纪末、20 世纪初，医学确实作为一门科学正在发展。
And, a lot of people are starting--medicine is becoming more of a career and more of a career pathway.
而且，很多人正在开始——医学越来越成为一种职业，越来越成为一种职业道路。
And yet, a lot of top medical schools in the United States and the United Kingdom, and this is very much--at this point, a big U.S. debate, too--a lot of people who want to become doctors are saying, 'Well, actually, why do I have to qualify in Greek to get into medical school?' Or, 'Why do I have to qualify in Greek to become a doctor?' And actually, 'Is this not a bit of a waste of my time, given that medical knowledge is expanding at such a rate that maybe my time would be better off spent doing that instead?'
然而，美国和英国的许多顶尖医学院，这在美国也是一场大辩论，很多想成为医生的人都在说，“好吧，实际上，为什么我必须获得希腊语资格才能进入医学院？”或者，“为什么我必须获得希腊语资格才能成为一名医生？”事实上，“考虑到医学知识正在以如此快的速度扩展，也许我的时间花在这上面会更好，这不是浪费我的时间吗？”
And, so, I think one of the best statements of the anti-Macaulay argument comes from an American medical educator, who was extraordinarily influential in early-20th century America.
因此，我认为反麦考利论点的最佳表述之一来自一位美国医学教育家，他在 20 世纪初的美国具有非凡的影响力。
His name's Abraham Flexner.
他的名字叫亚伯拉罕·弗莱克斯纳。
And, he writes a fantastic article in The Atlantic magazine in 1917, and he takes on a lot of these arguments from the point of view of medical training.
1917 年，他在《大西洋月刊》上发表了一篇精彩的文章，从医学培训的角度阐述了其中的许多论点。
And, one of the things he says, which I think really counters that Macaulay argument, is he has this great line where he says, 'I can compare the champions of mental discipline'--so that's the Macaulay type people who think that it doesn't matter what you study, it just matters that you build discipline.
而且，他所说的一件事，我认为真正反驳了麦考利的论点，是他有一句伟大的台词，他说，“我可以比较心理纪律的冠军”——所以这是麦考利类型的人，他们认为你学什么并不重要，重要的是你建立纪律。
He says, 'I compare the champions of mental discipline to Egyptian priests who planted rows of dead sticks, which for disciplinary purposes, they watered regularly.
他说：“我将精神纪律的拥护者比作埃及祭司，他们种植了一排排枯枝，出于纪律目的，他们定期浇水。
Had they planted corn, they would have got the same discipline and something more, the corn, for example.'
如果他们种植玉米，他们就会受到同样的纪律和更多的东西，例如玉米。
So, what he's saying is you've got all these aspiring medics in early-20th century America, and you're saying to lots of them, 'You need to be studying Greek and Latin before you can look at a medical textbook.' And, he's saying medicine is hard enough.
所以，他的意思是，20世纪初的美国有很多有抱负的医生，你对他们中的很多人说，“在看医学教科书之前，你需要先学习希腊语和拉丁语。”而且，他说医学已经够难的了。
Medicine is tough enough in itself.
医学本身就足够艰难了。
Instead of getting our kids to study Greek and Latin because that is hard stuff that trains their mind, we could just get them to study the hard stuff of medicine that is useful.
我们不应该让我们的孩子学习希腊语和拉丁语，因为这对训练他们的思维来说是困难的东西，我们可以让他们学习有用的医学方面的困难东西。
So, he is a really important figure.
所以，他是一个非常重要的人物。
And, actually, I would say in practical terms, kind of carries the day in terms of being very influential in the establishment of medical schools in America.
实际上，我想说的是，从实际角度来说，在美国医学院的建立方面具有非常大的影响力。
And the other crucial figure who lays down a lot of empirical evidence on this point is another American, E.L.
另一个在这一点上提供了大量经验证据的关键人物是另一位美国人，E.L.
Thorndike, who is a pioneer of experimental psychology.
桑代克是实验心理学的先驱。
And, again, Thorndike is listening to these arguments and sort of thinking, 'Well, can we bring any data to bear?
桑代克再次聆听这些论点并思考，‘好吧，我们可以提供任何数据吗？
Can we do some research?' And, he lays the foundation for a lot of later experimental psychology, and he does these very pioneering studies on whether skills do transfer across domains.
我们可以做一些研究吗？而且，他为后来的许多实验心理学奠定了基础，他对技能是否可以跨领域转移进行了这些非常开创性的研究。
So essentially, the Macaulay argument, if you like: it doesn't matter what you study; you just need to hone your brain to a razor-point sharpness.
因此，从本质上讲，麦考利的论点，如果你愿意的话：你学什么并不重要；重要的是你学习什么。你只需要把你的大脑磨练到锋利的程度。
And, in Macaulay's idea, the hardest thing you can study is ancient Greek.
而且，在麦考利的观点中，你能学习的最难的东西就是古希腊语。
So, if you can translate the Melian Dialogue, you can basically do anything.
所以，如果你能翻译Melian Dialogue，你基本上就可以做任何事情。
It's not just ancient Greek.
这不仅仅是古希腊语。
The hardest bit of ancient Greek is Thucydides.
古希腊语中最难的部分是修昔底德。
So people are like, 'Once you can translate Thucydides, you can do anything.'
所以人们会说，“一旦你能翻译修昔底德，你就可以做任何事。”
And, what Thorndike is saying is: 'Well, let's test this.' He comes up with a couple of ways of testing it.
桑代克所说的是：“好吧，让我们测试一下。”他想出了几种测试方法。
So, one of the things is he looks at the kind of students who are doing the classical languages at school, and he says, 'Well, do they do better on all their other subjects?' So, that's just a kind of more of a statistical survey.
所以，其中一件事是，他观察了在学校学习古典语言的学生，然后他说，“嗯，他们在所有其他科目上都做得更好吗？”所以，这只是一种统计调查。
And, he basically finds, once you control for prior attainment, they don't.
而且，他基本上发现，一旦你控制了先前的成就，他们就不会了。
The second type of experiments we[?] do, which again have been very influential, is he trains people up in doing one skill really well, and then he gives them another task to do that's similar but different.
我们所做的第二种实验也非常有影响力，那就是他训练人们很好地掌握一项技能，然后他给他们布置另一项类似但不同的任务。
And he sees, 'Well, does it transfer across?' So, again, a simple example, but he gives the experimental subjects practice in estimating the shapes of rectangles, and they get a lot of practice at that, and they get better at that.
他看到，“嗯，它会转移过来吗？”再次，这是一个简单的例子，但他让实验对象练习估计矩形的形状，他们在这方面得到了很多练习，并且他们在这方面做得更好。
And then, he says, 'Does that make you better at estimating the shapes of triangles?'
然后，他说，“这是否能让你更好地估计三角形的形状？”
Daisy Christodoulou: YeH, I think the area, estimating the area.
Daisy Christodoulou：是的，我认为面积，估计面积。
So, he gives experimental subjects practice estimating the area of rectangles.
因此，他让实验对象练习估计矩形的面积。
And they get better at that, and they have the practice, and they improve.
他们在这方面做得更好，他们有练习，他们进步了。
And then, he says, 'Will that transfer over to improvements in estimating the area of triangles?' And, he finds, no, it doesn't.
然后，他说，“这会转化为三角形面积估算的改进吗？”而且，他发现，不，事实并非如此。
And, even on that very simple, quite close allied skill, it doesn't.
而且，即使是那种非常简单、非常接近的联合技能，也不是这样。
And again, I think if we go back to Flexner, are we really saying that if you can translate the Melian Dialogue, that is going to make you a really fantastic surgeon?
再说一遍，我想如果我们回到弗莱克斯纳，我们真的是说如果你能翻译《美丽安对话》，那会让你成为一名真正出色的外科医生吗？
Like, really?
真的吗？
So, where your Talmud point--where you say, 'Oh, doing the Talmud makes you a better lawyer'--this is where you get some interesting things about transfer, which in the modern literature will be called far transfer and near transfer .
所以，在你的塔木德点上——你说，“哦，读塔木德会让你成为一名更好的律师”——这就是你得到一些关于转移的有趣的事情的地方，在现代文献中，这被称为远转移和近转移。
So, near transfer would be when you're transferring--and Thorndike comes up with a term--he talks about where there are identical elements.
因此，接近转移是指当你正在转移时——桑代克提出了一个术语——他谈到了存在相同元素的地方。
So, where there are identical elements in the skill you've studied and the thing you are transferring to, then you can have some transfer take place.
因此，如果您所学习的技能和您要转移到的事物中有相同的要素，那么您就可以进行一些转移。
But, when there is not really that much in common--and that's in the modern literature you would say far transfer --it just kind of breaks down.
但是，当真正没有那么多共同点时——在现代文学中，你会说远移——它就会崩溃。
So, I can see that, obviously, the Talmud, and indeed ancient Greek, there are obviously some near-transfer things that you're going to take from that that would be useful in everyday life.
所以，我可以看到，显然，塔木德，甚至古希腊语，显然有一些近乎转移的东西，你可以从中获取对日常生活有用的东西。
But are you going to be able to far-transfer to lots of other things?
但是你能够远距离迁移到许多其他事情吗？
I don't think so.
我不这么认为。
So, if it's really important to you to have trained doctors and trained medics, and people who understand medical science, and you want to train and design a training program for them, or in Pepys's example, if it's really important for you to have trained navigators on board a ship, then you should be coming up with a training program that is quite closely allied to the final skill that it is you want to see, and you should be trying to make sure there are ways that there is that identical elements, and that where there is transfer needed, it's a near transfer, and you can test that, and you can see that it's happening.
因此，如果拥有经过培训的医生和医务人员以及了解医学的人对您来说非常重要，并且您想为他们培训和设计培训计划，或者在佩皮斯的例子中，如果您在船上拥有经过培训的领航员确实很重要，那么您应该提出一个与您想要看到的最终技能密切相关的培训计划，并且您应该尝试确保存在相同的元素，并且在哪里需要进行转移，这是一次接近转移，您可以对其进行测试，并且可以看到它正在发生。
Russ Roberts: So, deep down, I agree with a lot of that, but I want to push back on it a little bit.
拉斯·罗伯茨：所以，在内心深处，我同意很多观点，但我想稍微反驳一下。
Which is: I've been fortunate to meet some very high-IQ people in my life, and some of them are only good at one thing, but a lot of them are good at a lot of things.
这就是：我一生中有幸遇到了一些智商非常高的人，他们中的一些人只擅长一件事，但他们中的很多人擅长很多事情。
Now, I think the relevant point would be: Well, they're not just good at those things; they know a lot about them; and those are two very different things.
现在，我认为相关的一点是：嗯，他们不仅擅长这些事情；他们还擅长这些事情。他们对他们了解很多；这是两件截然不同的事情。
They have a base knowledge of context and raw fact and information that's crucial for allowing that well-honed, razor-sharp brain to do something.
他们对背景、原始事实和信息有基本的了解，这对于让训练有素、锋利的大脑做某事至关重要。
And, I think when we think about--now, let's move away from civil service and Royal Navy.
而且，我认为当我们现在考虑时，让我们远离公务员和皇家海军。
When we think about what is the purpose of education--let's start with K-through-12 or college--I like to believe that what I do here at Shalem College is, quote, "Help my students learn how to think."
当我们思考教育的目的是什么时——让我们从幼儿园到十二年级或大学开始——我愿意相信我在沙勒姆学院所做的就是“帮助我的学生学习如何思考”。
Now, you could make fun of that and say, 'Well, but that's an amorphous skill that doesn't transfer to lots of things.' And yet, I think when our students deal with, say, the Iliad or the Odyssey , or Plato or Aristotle, they don't read them in the original languages.
现在，你可以取笑这一点并说：“好吧，但这是一种无定形的技能，不会转移到很多事情上。”然而，我认为当我们的学生阅读《伊利亚特》或《奥德赛》，或者柏拉图或亚里士多德时，他们并不是用原文阅读的。
They usually read them in translation, but they've learned some, actually, some of the Greek.
他们通常阅读翻译版，但实际上他们已经学会了一些希腊语。
I think they get good at understanding things, and they get good at reading, and they get good at raising questions, interpreting text.
我认为他们善于理解事物，善于阅读，善于提出问题，解释文本。
And those are useful skills, and they do transfer to other things.
这些都是有用的技能，它们确实可以转移到其他事情上。
Maybe they're limited.
也许他们的能力有限。
But, I'm curious, given your Thorndike-ian pessimism about transferability, if that's the case, should there be anything other than trade schools that teach people expertise in narrow areas where expertise is crucial?
但是，我很好奇，考虑到你对可转移性的桑代克式悲观态度，如果是这样的话，除了商学院之外，是否应该有其他东西来教授人们在专业知识至关重要的狭窄领域的专业知识？
Daisy Christodoulou: No. So, look, I definitely don't want to say that.
Daisy Christodoulou：不。所以，听着，我绝对不想这么说。
I'm definitely not making the argument [inaudible 00:48:40].
我绝对不会争论 [听不清 00:48:40]。
Russ Roberts: I know you don't.
拉斯·罗伯茨：我知道你不知道。
I'm just pushing you into a corner there.
我只是把你逼到角落里。
Daisy Christodoulou: You're right, you're right.
黛西·克里斯托杜卢：你是对的，你是对的。
And, I would agree, I think, with a lot of what you're doing at Shalem College.
而且，我想，我会同意你在沙勒姆学院所做的很多事情。
I think the point I would make is that if you are setting out with a goal to get students to think well, I think that's a legitimate goal, but you have to acknowledge that being able to think well depends on domain knowledge.
我想我想说的是，如果你的目标是让学生好好思考，我认为这是一个合理的目标，但你必须承认，能否好好思考取决于领域知识。
It depends on specific knowledge of a particular domain.
这取决于特定领域的具体知识。
So, for example, literature, I do think literature is a completely legitimate topic of study.
所以，比如说文学，我确实认为文学是一个完全合法的研究主题。
And, what I would say is if you are studying ancient literature, either in translation or in the original language, if you read a lot of literary texts, you will come to one that you have never read before, that's unseen, and you can have a really good go at understanding it even if you haven't seen it before, because you've got the kind of near transfer from all of the other knowledge of literary texts.
而且，我想说的是，如果你正在研究古代文学，无论是翻译的还是原文的，如果你读了很多文学文本，你会发现你以前从未读过的、看不见的，即使你以前没有见过，你也可以很好地理解它，因为你已经从文学文本的所有其他知识中获得了近乎迁移的能力。
And I think that kind of thing is important.
我认为这种事情很重要。
So, what I would say is, is that whatever it is we are trying to teach--whether it is literature, whether it is navigation, whether it is good administration, whether it is how to build munition shells, whatever the thing is we want people to have skills in--what we have to understand is those skills are domain-specific.
所以，我想说的是，无论我们试图教授什么——无论是文学，无论是导航，无论是良好的管理，无论是如何建造弹药炮弹，无论我们希望人们掌握什么技能——我们必须了解的是，这些技能是针对特定领域的。
And I think what has been neglected in a lot of modern education is the domain specificity of skills.
我认为很多现代教育都忽视了技能的领域特殊性。
And in modern education--so if we complete the kind of historical tour of where this is going, in the late-19th, early-20th century, the argument for knowledge doesn't matter, and it's just to kind of create a razor-sharp brain.
在现代教育中，如果我们完成了 19 世纪末、20 世纪初的历史之旅，那么对知识的争论并不重要，而只是为了创造一个锋利的大脑。
That school of thought is known as the faculty psychology, or mental discipline.
该思想流派被称为“学院心理学”或“心理学科”。
And, it's known as that in both the United States and the United Kingdom, and it's influential.
而且，它在美国和英国都是有名的，而且有影响力。
And then you have people, as I say, like Thorndike and Flexner come along and say, 'Hang on a minute.' And, I think what you've had since then, in the sort of postwar era and coming up to today, is a lot more research on what experts, what kind of training they do and what kind of skills they have.
然后，正如我所说，像桑代克和弗莱克斯纳这样的人会过来说，“等一下。”而且，我认为从那时起，从战后时代到今天，人们对哪些专家、他们接受过什么样的培训以及他们拥有什么样的技能进行了更多的研究。
And, again, you've had a lot more research on how even moving slightly outside your domain can really challenge you, and your skills can break down.
再说一次，您已经进行了大量研究，了解即使稍微超出您的领域也会对您产生真正的挑战，并且您的技能可能会崩溃。
And some of the most famous research was done with chess players, by Herbert Simon, who is, again, another American, Nobel laureate in economics.
一些最著名的研究是赫伯特·西蒙（Herbert Simon）针对国际象棋棋手所做的，他又是另一位美国诺贝尔经济学奖获得者。
He did some really famous research on chess players, where he showed that if you show them a chess board with a bunch of pieces for five seconds, take it away, if those pieces are drawn from an actual game--like a genuine game scenario--their memory is insanely good.
他对国际象棋棋手做了一些非常著名的研究，他表明，如果你向他们展示一个有一堆棋子的棋盘五秒钟，然后把它拿走，如果这些棋子是从实际的游戏中抽取的——就像一个真实的游戏场景——他们的记忆力会非常好。
They look at it a couple of seconds--bang--they've got it.
他们看了几秒钟——砰——他们明白了。
They can reproduce it almost perfectly--
他们几乎可以完美地重现它——
Russ Roberts: Chess players.
拉斯·罗伯茨：国际象棋棋手。
Serious chess players--
认真的棋手——
Daisy Christodoulou: Yeah, really good chess players.
黛西·克里斯托杜卢：是的，非常好的棋手。
Chess Grandmasters.
国际象棋大师。
If you give them a chess board with 25 pieces, you give them a couple of seconds to look at it, ask them to reproduce it, they're insanely good.
如果你给他们一个有 25 个棋子的棋盘，你给他们几秒钟的时间看一下，然后要求他们重现它，他们就非常优秀了。
But, if you give them the exact same task with one small difference--so the pieces are not taken from a chess game, they just put at random on the board--they cannot do it.
但是，如果你给他们完全相同的任务，只有一点点的差别——所以棋子不是从国际象棋游戏中取出的，而是随机放在棋盘上的——他们就做不到。
So, again, this is disproving that general mental tool idea of mental skill.
因此，这又反驳了心理技能这一一般心理工具的观点。
Because, why is it they can be so good at 25 pieces from an actual chess game but terrible at 25 pieces placed at random?
因为，为什么他们在实际国际象棋游戏中的 25 个棋子上表现得如此出色，但在随机放置的 25 个棋子上却很糟糕？
They don't have a generally good memory skill.
他们一般不具备良好的记忆能力。
What they have stored in long-term memory is a schema of thousands of chess games that they've seen, where they know the kind of typical patterns that you would get.
他们在长期记忆中存储的是他们见过的数千种国际象棋比赛的模式，他们知道你会得到什么样的典型模式。
And, that's what makes it so easy for them to remember and to perform these apparently superhuman feats of memory.
这就是为什么他们能够如此轻松地记住并执行这些看似超人的记忆壮举。
And again, that's a really seminal study.
再说一遍，这确实是一项开创性的研究。
Simon and Chase's "Skill in Chess" has been replicated with all kinds of other experts.
西蒙和蔡斯的“国际象棋技巧”已被其他各种专家复制。
And, the thing I always say is: people talk about critical thinking as being this all-purpose transferable skill.
而且，我总是说：人们谈论批判性思维是一种万能的可转移技能。
I mean, the thing I always like to joke about is you can think of a physics professor who is really good at critical thinking within the context of solving a physics problem and really poor at critical thinking in the context of solving a problem in his marriage.
我的意思是，我总是喜欢开玩笑的是，你可以想象一位物理学教授在解决物理问题时非常擅长批判性思维，但在解决婚姻问题时却非常不擅长批判性思维。
We all know that person, right?
我们都认识那个人，对吧？
So, the idea that these skills--you can have this very generic skill, like problem solving or critical thinking--it's just not there.
所以，这些技能——你可以拥有这种非常通用的技能，比如解决问题或批判性思维——的想法并不存在。
One other paper I'll put in, that a lot of Americans have been putting in here, there's a lot of really good American researchers here.
我要放的另一篇论文，很多美国人都放在这里，这里有很多非常优秀的美国研究人员。
One of my favorite ones on creativity has a little American sporting reference for you in the title.
我最喜欢的关于创造力的文章之一在标题中为您提供了一些美国体育参考。
It's by a leading researcher in creativity, James Kaufman, and it's called "Could Steven Spielberg Have Managed the Yankees?"
这本书的作者是创造力领域的顶尖研究员詹姆斯·考夫曼，书名为《史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格能管理洋基队吗？》
Daisy Christodoulou: It's a very good question, and he concludes no, because he concludes that, again, Steven Spielberg's creativity is built up within a specific domain of filmmaking.
黛西·克里斯托杜卢：这是一个非常好的问题，他的结论是“不”，因为他的结论是，史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格的创造力是在电影制作的特定领域内建立起来的。
And when you jump to a very different domain that would require far transfer.
当您跳转到一个非常不同的域时，需要远距离传输。
Like, to managing the Yankees, sure, you need creativity to manage the Yankees, but it's just really different knowledge.
就像管理洋基队一样，当然，你需要创造力来管理洋基队，但这只是完全不同的知识。
The creativity is within a completely different domain.
创造力属于完全不同的领域。
And the other one, last name check, is the guy who I think has done so much work on this, is completely brilliant, is Professor Daniel Willingham at University of Virginia.
另一位是姓氏检查，我认为在这方面做了很多工作的人非常出色，他是弗吉尼亚大学的 Daniel Willingham 教授。
Russ Roberts: He's been on the program talking about some of these issues.
拉斯·罗伯茨：他一直在节目中谈论其中一些问题。
We'll link to that episode.
我们将链接到该集。
Daisy Christodoulou: Absolutely brilliant.
黛西·克里斯托杜卢：绝对出色。
Enormously influential for a lot of people here in the United Kingdom.
对英国的许多人来说具有巨大的影响力。
And, he just has brilliant, brilliant, very teacher-friendly articles about how all of this research should manifest itself in terms of how you design a curriculum and assessment.
而且，他的文章非常精彩，非常适合教师，关于所有这些研究应该如何在设计课程和评估方面体现出来。
So, I would say the empirical argument, we're arguing back with Macaulay, arguing with him in the grave, the empirical argument since Macaulay is just completely, I would say, a slam dunk against his argument: Skills are domain-specific.
所以，我想说的是经验论点，我们正在与麦考利争论，在坟墓里与他争论，因为麦考利的经验论点完全是对他的论点的有力反对：技能是针对特定领域的。
It matters what you teach.
你教什么很重要。
Russ Roberts: I'm glad you got 'slam dunk' in there for the Americans.
拉斯·罗伯茨：我很高兴你为美国人带来了“扣篮”。
Russ Roberts: I think a simpler test--I haven't read the Kaufman article, but it's famously the case that successful coaches in college basketball do not become successful pro coaches, and vice versa.
拉斯·罗伯茨：我认为一个更简单的测试 - 我还没有读过考夫曼的文章，但众所周知，大学篮球中成功的教练不会成为成功的职业教练，反之亦然。
Successful pro coaches often struggle in college--although there are obviously exceptions; and they're in other sports as well besides basketball.
成功的职业教练在大学里常常会遇到困难——尽管也有明显的例外。除了篮球之外，他们还从事其他运动。
Like: How far is that?
比如：那有多远？
That seems pretty close, and yet there are some specific skills in there they just don't have or have never honed, and the general skill actually is not so helpful.
这看起来非常接近，但其中有一些特定的技能他们只是没有或从未磨练过，而一般技能实际上并没有那么有帮助。
Russ Roberts: I want to close with a different--what some might think of as different, but I actually think of as quite related--and I heard you talk about a little bit recently.
拉斯·罗伯茨：我想以一个不同的观点来结束——有些人可能认为不同，但我实际上认为它们非常相关——我最近听到你谈到了一些。
We were in England at this conference together, and it fascinates me.
我们一起在英国参加这次会议，这让我着迷。
Let me set it up this way.
让我这样设置一下。
One could argue--I don't believe this, but many people think this is the case--that the goal of education is to encourage skepticism.
有人可能会争辩说——我不相信这一点，但很多人认为情况确实如此——教育的目标是鼓励怀疑主义。
And, you could argue that a lot of EconTalk is about skepticism.
而且，你可能会说，EconTalk 的很多内容都是关于怀疑论的。
Someone says: studies show about chess players, but hey, there's publication bias and replicability problems, and maybe that Herbert Simon thing isn't true, and so I'm going to be skeptical about it until I get to look closely and see if it was well done.
有人说：研究显示了关于国际象棋棋手的信息，但是，嘿，存在出版偏见和可复制性问题，也许赫伯特·西蒙的事情不是真的，所以我会对它持怀疑态度，直到我仔细观察并看看它是否做得很好。
And, so, that honing of the brain to be skeptical, one might argue, is a very important part of education.
因此，有人可能会说，磨练大脑的怀疑态度是教育的一个非常重要的部分。
Don't just believe everything you hear.
不要只相信你听到的一切。
And, you could argue that there's not many things more important in education than being skeptical of what you're told, and to make sure that the things that you're told or that you come to believe have real foundations and evidence behind them, and so on.
而且，你可能会说，在教育中，没有什么比对你被告知的事情持怀疑态度更重要的了，并确保你被告知的事情或你开始相信的事情背后有真正的基础和证据，等等。
And I struggle with the fact--so I have a part of me that's very much in that direction, in that domain.
我与这个事实作斗争——所以我的一部分非常偏向那个方向、那个领域。
And yet at the same time, pushed too far, that kind of skepticism can lead to what you would call cynicism: Nothing is true.
但与此同时，如果过度怀疑，这种怀疑可能会导致所谓的犬儒主义：没有什么是真实的。
Everything is relative.
一切都是相对的。
There are no ultimate values.
没有最终的价值。
There's no ultimate truth.
没有最终的真理。
You can never know.
你永远不会知道。
And therefore you should just be cynical about everything, not just skeptical.
因此，你应该对一切都持愤世嫉俗的态度，而不仅仅是怀疑。
And, in my experience, that leads to nihilism, which is not a healthy thing in my view.
而且，根据我的经验，这会导致虚无主义，在我看来这不是一件健康的事情。
But, I heard you say at this conference we were at that very few great teachers--and this is just a casual, empirical observation on your part--are cynics.
但是，我听到你在这次会议上说，我们参加的伟大教师中很少有愤世嫉俗者——这只是你的一个随意的、经验性的观察。
Did I understand you correctly?
我对你的理解正确吗？
And then, react to what I said.
然后，对我说的话做出反应。
Daisy Christodoulou: Yeah.
黛西·克里斯托杜卢：是的。
So, what I said was that every great head teacher I've met--and I work in education, I've met quite a lot of head teachers--I would say, again, completely anecdotal--
所以，我所说的是，我遇到的每一位伟大的班主任——我从事教育工作，我见过很多班主任——我想说，完全是轶事——
Russ Roberts: When you say head teachers, do you mean 'principals' in American parlance?
拉斯·罗伯茨：当您说校长时，您指的是美国用语中的“校长”吗？
Daisy Christodoulou: Yes, principals.
Daisy Christodoulou：是的，校长们。
Yeah.
是的。
Sorry, principals.
对不起，校长们。
So, I would say every great principal I've met--and again, this is totally anecdotal, no data behind this.
所以，我会说我遇到的每一位伟大的校长——再说一遍，这完全是轶事，没有任何数据支持。
Maybe I'm doing a Macaulay and going ahead of myself and getting convinced by my own eloquence.
也许我正在模仿麦考利，走在前面，被自己的口才说服了。
But, I would say every great head teacher I've met doesn't really have a sense of irony.
但是，我想说，我遇到的每一位伟大的班主任都没有真正的讽刺感。
They can have a sense of humor.
他们可以有幽默感。
They can be funny and be witty, but they don't have that sense of irony.
他们可以很风趣、很机智，但他们没有那种讽刺感。
And, what I mean by irony is that sense of undercutting, of that sense of seeing something: yeah, maybe it is related to skepticism, but kind of seeing--
而且，我所说的讽刺是指那种削弱的感觉，那种看到某些东西的感觉：是的，也许这与怀疑主义有关，但有点看到——
Daisy Christodoulou: It's related to skepticism and cynicism.
Daisy Christodoulou：这与怀疑主义和愤世嫉俗有关。
So I think irony goes too far, and it becomes cynicism.
所以我认为讽刺太过分了，就会变成愤世嫉俗。
And, I think the reason for this is a head teacher is setting rules, and they can't be undercutting the rules.
而且，我认为原因是班主任正在制定规则，他们不能削弱规则。
They have to believe in the rules.
他们必须相信规则。
And, I think I said to you, too: when I started out as a teacher, I did an English literature degree, so I need to put my cards on the table.
而且，我想我也对你说过：当我开始当老师时，我获得了英国文学学位，所以我需要把我的牌摆在桌面上。
I've spent this whole podcast talking to you about how the study of ancient literature is a terrible idea, and it's basically been my entire academic field of study.
我在整个播客中都在和你们谈论古代文学研究是一个糟糕的想法，而它基本上是我的整个学术研究领域。
So, yeah: make of that what you will.
所以，是的：随你所欲。
But, a big part of the study of English literature is, irony is a huge part of it.
但是，英国文学研究的一个重要部分是，讽刺是其中的重要组成部分。
And a lot of the English authors, I would say, we most admire are ones who are masters of irony.
我想说，我们最钦佩的许多英国作家都是讽刺大师。
I mean, Jane Austen leaps to mind, but there are plenty of others.
我的意思是，简·奥斯汀跃入我的脑海，但还有很多其他人。
And, I remember--I came out of education, I came straight out of my degree and graduated in the summer, and by the autumn I was teaching.
而且，我记得——我从教育中毕业，直接获得学位并在夏天毕业，到秋天我开始教书。
And, it's really hard to sustain a sense of irony in a classroom with teenagers, because you have to kind of enforce these rules and believe in them.
而且，在青少年课堂上保持讽刺感真的很困难，因为你必须强制执行这些规则并相信它们。
And, if you don't, and if you're the one who is constantly undercutting, it just gets really difficult.
而且，如果你不这样做，并且你是那个不断削弱的人，那么事情就会变得非常困难。
And so, I think you can probably, as a teacher, just about sustain it, but I think it gets harder if, as I say, you're a principal and you're at the top of the tree, and you are responsible for upholding these rules.
因此，我认为作为一名教师，你可能可以维持它，但我认为，正如我所说，如果你是一名校长，你处于树的顶端，并且你有责任维护这些规则，那么事情就会变得更难。
And so, I think there is a kind of an issue that a lot of the qualities, and in lots of ways, I do admire these great masters of irony, like Jane Austen, but there are a lot of ways in which it's kind of hard to really construct a coherent worldview on that.
因此，我认为存在一个问题，即在很多方面，我确实钦佩这些伟大的讽刺大师，比如简·奥斯汀，但在很多方面，很难真正构建一个连贯的世界观。
Because, as you say, one of the great issues with skepticism is it undercuts itself.
因为，正如你所说，怀疑主义的最大问题之一是它削弱了自身。
And, I think the great tension here is that skepticism and rationality have historically given us enormous benefits.
而且，我认为这里最大的张力是怀疑主义和理性在历史上给我们带来了巨大的好处。
So, modern science is incredible when it's, to a large part, built on not trusting and verifying.
因此，现代科学在很大程度上是建立在不信任和验证的基础上的，这是令人难以置信的。
Daisy Christodoulou: But, on the other hand, if you just literally believe in nothing and you are trying to prove everything, you will just end up in a reductio ad absurdum , and you will end up really in something--and this, again, we're talking about Pepys, but you can go right back to the 17th century here--you will end up in a kind of antinomian state of mind, where you just trust nobody and nothing.
黛西·克里斯托杜卢：但是，另一方面，如果你只是字面上不相信任何东西，而你试图证明一切，那么你最终只会陷入反证法，你最终会真正陷入某种困境——这，再一次，我们谈论的是佩皮斯，但你可以回到 17 世纪——你最终会陷入一种反律主义的心态，你只相信任何人，也不相信任何东西。
And, I think this goes to the Royal Society, the Royal Society's motto, and Pepys was involved, I think, in setting up the Royal Society.
而且，我认为这符合皇家学会的座右铭，我认为佩皮斯参与了皇家学会的建立。
The Royal Society's motto is 'Nullius in verba': Take no one's word for it.
英国皇家学会的座右铭是“Nullius in verba”：不相信任何人的话。
Daisy Christodoulou: And, on the one hand, yeah, fantastic.
Daisy Christodoulou：一方面，是的，太棒了。
That's amazing.
太棒了。
And, the way the Royal Society did that, did result in some of the most amazing advances that the entire world have benefited from.
而且，英国皇家学会的做法确实带来了一些最惊人的进步，全世界都从中受益。
On the other hand, actually, it just doesn't work.
另一方面，实际上，它根本不起作用。
To absolutely, definitively prove even one of the most basic facts that you take for granted in your life could take a lifetime.
要绝对地、明确地证明哪怕是你生命中理所当然的最基本的事实之一，都可能需要一生的时间。
So, ultimately, we are all taking something on someone else's word.
所以，最终，我们都会相信别人的话。
You can't not.
你不能不。
But, this is the tension.
但是，这就是紧张。
You go too far one way, and you're credulous, and you just become gullible, and you fall for scams and conservatives.
你在某一方面走得太远，你就会轻信，你就会变得容易受骗，你就会落入骗局和保守派的陷阱。
But you go too far the other way, and you just undercut yourself and, as I say, become antinomian, and the ground beneath you falls away.
但你在另一条路上走得太远了，你只会削弱自己，正如我所说，成为反律法主义者，你脚下的基础就会消失。
So, there has to be some kind of place that you can find where you do find some secure ground to put your foot on.
因此，必须有某种地方可以让你找到安全的立足点。
But, when you find that, I think you do really kind of have to defend it a bit.
但是，当你发现这一点时，我认为你确实需要为它辩护一下。
It's a tricky one.
这是一个棘手的问题。
Russ Roberts: Yeah.
拉斯·罗伯茨：是的。
I think I first read it in David Epstein's book, where he talks about NASA [National Aeronautics and Space Administration], which, by the way, is another government agency that very much prioritized skill, particular skills of astrophysics and mathematics, wisely, to keep people alive; but fails from time to time, as we know.
我想我第一次读到它是在大卫·爱泼斯坦的书中，他在书中谈到了美国国家航空航天局（NASA），顺便说一句，这是另一个政府机构，它非常重视技能，特别是天体物理学和数学的特殊技能，明智地让人们活下去；但正如我们所知，有时会失败。
And David writes--I think it's where I saw it--on the wall it says, 'In God we trust.
大卫在墙上写道——我想就是我看到的——“我们相信上帝”。
Everyone else, bring data.' And, it's a beautiful idea.
其他人，带上数据。”而且，这是一个美好的主意。
And, in a certain sense, you want to live your life that way, requiring take no one's word, prove it.
而且，从某种意义上说，你想以这种方式生活，不需要相信任何人的话，证明它。
Where's the data?
数据在哪里？
Where's the evidence?
证据在哪里？
And yet, there's a dance, as a human being, where, not just the practicality part, that you can't prove everything and you have to accept some things on faith.
然而，作为一个人，有一种舞蹈，不仅仅是实用性部分，你无法证明一切，你必须凭信心接受一些事情。
But I think there's something more important, which is some things aren't amenable to proof.
但我认为还有更重要的事情，那就是有些事情是无法证明的。
Some of those are in marriage, that you were talking about earlier--how you deal with people, whether it's your spouse or friend, or a colleague at work.
其中一些是在婚姻中，你之前谈到过——你如何与人打交道，无论是你的配偶、朋友，还是工作中的同事。
And, this is related for me.
而且，这与我有关。
I don't know if it makes sense, but I think about my youth.
我不知道这是否有意义，但我想到了我的青春。
I was brought up on certain types of humor, and they were all ironic.
我是在某些类型的幽默中长大的，而且它们都是讽刺性的。
I was, I think, 12 years old in the heyday of Marvel Comics, when Spider-Man and the Fantastic Four, and others, were coming out of the pen and mind of Stan Lee and Jack Kirby, and others.
我想，我当时 12 岁，正值漫威漫画的鼎盛时期，当时蜘蛛侠、神奇四侠等漫画正从斯坦·李、杰克·科比等人的笔下和头脑中诞生。
And they were always ironic.
而且他们总是很讽刺。
Their sense of humor was always about--they were always wise-cracking.
他们总是充满幽默感——他们总是俏皮话。
They were always putting things down and being hip.
他们总是放下一切，保持时髦。
And, I think that's a huge part of American culture.
而且，我认为这是美国文化的重要组成部分。
I was part of that as a kid.
我小时候也是其中的一部分。
The humor--I was a big fan of the Firesign Theatre, which was this set of crazy recordings when I was in high school, of super-ironic stuff.
幽默——我是 Firesign Theatre 的忠实粉丝，这是我高中时录制的一套疯狂的、超级讽刺的东西。
And, I think, I don't know if it's healthy.
而且，我想，我不知道它是否健康。
I mean, I love my sense of humor.
我的意思是，我喜欢我的幽默感。
I'm totally happy with it, and I passed, I hope, some of it onto my children through--but part of what they watched was The Andy Griffith Show , which I'll just mention as incredibly funny, but also incredibly charming, and there's zero irony in it.
我对此非常满意，我希望将其中的一些内容传递给我的孩子们——但他们观看的部分内容是《安迪·格里菲斯秀》，我只是提到它非常有趣，但也非常迷人，而且其中零讽刺。
It's good-hearted in its nature.
它的本质是善良的。
It's virtuous in its nature.
它的本质是善良的。
There's no attempt to show that you're cooler than the people who keep the rules.
没有试图表明你比遵守规则的人更酷。
But, all that other stuff is about breaking the rules.
但是，所有其他的事情都是关于违反规则的。
And it's a fascinating issue.
这是一个令人着迷的问题。
I think you said it well about you need a place to stand, and if you were only going to stand on places where you know it's safe, you're in trouble.
我认为你说得很好，你需要一个站立的地方，如果你只站在你知道安全的地方，你就有麻烦了。
So, I don't know what else to say about it.
所以，我不知道对此还能说些什么。
You can take us home if you want to add anything.
如果您想添加任何内容，可以带我们回家。
Daisy Christodoulou: Yeah, I think I agree with that.
Daisy Christodoulou：是的，我想我同意这一点。
And, I think the other thing we were chatting about, when we spoke in person, was to what extent may be--I get your point, there's an ironic strain in American culture.
而且，我认为当我们亲自交谈时，我们谈论的另一件事是，在多大程度上可能是——我明白你的观点，美国文化中有一种讽刺的张力。
America is large, it contains multitudes.
美国幅员辽阔，人口众多。
But, it does feel like maybe there's a strain of earnestness in American culture that often maybe British people maybe sometimes like to mock.
但是，确实感觉美国文化中可能存在着一种认真的气氛，而英国人有时可能喜欢嘲笑这种气氛。
And, I've probably been guilty of that.
而且，我可能对此感到内疚。
But then, you look at it, and you think: that earnestness does have its strengths.
但当你看到它时，你会想：这种真诚确实有它的优点。
And, as you say, there is a point at which the irony can shade into cynicism, and the cynicism can be something that can really stop you getting things done if you just are always seeing the bad side of things.
而且，正如你所说，在某个时刻，讽刺可能会演变成愤世嫉俗，而如果你总是看到事情不好的一面，那么愤世嫉俗可能会真正阻止你把事情做好。
So, there has to become some kind of value to earnestness as a way of--if you want to achieve things and you want to build things, you can't always be knocking things down.
因此，认真必须具有某种价值，作为一种方式——如果你想实现目标、想要建设目标，你就不能总是把目标推倒。
You have to want to try to build.
你必须想要尝试构建。
And, I wonder if some element of earnestness is necessary for being a builder and not a destroyer.
而且，我想知道作为建设者而不是破坏者是否需要某种真诚的元素。
Russ Roberts: My guest today has been Daisy Christodoulou.
拉斯·罗伯茨：今天我的客人是黛西·克里斯托杜卢。
Daisy, thanks for being part of EconTalk.
黛西，感谢您参与 EconTalk。
Daisy Christodoulou: Fantastic.
黛西·克里斯托杜卢：太棒了。
Thank you, Russ.
谢谢你，拉斯。