The Federal Debt: An Analysis of Movements from World War II to the Present
Financing the obligations of the United States has always been a central concern of Congress and the President.
为美国的债务融资一直是国会和总统关心的核心问题。
If policy decisions and economic conditions lead to levels of government spending which exceed revenue collection, the government will incur debt.
如果政策决定和经济状况导致政府支出水平超过收入水平，政府将产生债务。
Levels of federal debt are reported in terms of debt held by federal government accounts (intragovernmental), and gross (total) federal debt.
联邦债务水平以联邦政府账户（政府内）持有的债务和联邦债务总额来报告。
Debt held by the public is the total amount the federal government has borrowed from the public and remains outstanding.
公众持有的债务是联邦政府向公众借入且未偿还的债务总额。
Intragovernmental debt is the amount owed by the federal government to other federal agencies.
政府内债务是联邦政府欠其他联邦机构的金额。
Gross federal debt is composed of debt held by the public and intragovernmental debt.
联邦债务总额由公共债务和政府内部债务组成。
Movements in federal debt occur over time.
联邦债务的变动随着时间的推移而发生。
Historical trends can be useful in synthesizing how policy and the economy affect the debt outlook.
历史趋势有助于综合政策和经济如何影响债务前景。
In most years, debt held by the public has increased on a nominal basis.
在大多数年份，公众持有的债务名义上有所增加。
Nominal measures of debt, however, do not control for inflation.
然而，名义债务指标并不能控制通货膨胀。
As long as the economy grows faster than the debt, the debt will become less burdensome relative to the economy as a whole.
只要经济增速快于债务增速，债务相对于整体经济的负担就会减轻。
Measuring debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) controls for effects such as inflation and economic growth, allowing for comparisons over time.
将债务占国内生产总值 (GDP) 的百分比进行衡量可以控制通货膨胀和经济增长等影响，从而可以随时间进行比较。
Factors influencing movements in debt levels include spending levels, revenue collections, and economic growth.
影响债务水平变动的因素包括支出水平、收入和经济增长。
These factors can lead to changes in debt as a percentage of GDP which cannot always be anticipated.
这些因素可能会导致债务占 GDP 的百分比发生变化，而这种变化并不总是可以预测的。
For example, if increases in spending or decreases in tax revenue outweigh strong GDP growth, debt as a percentage of GDP can increase.
例如，如果支出的增加或税收的减少超过了 GDP 的强劲增长，债务占 GDP 的百分比就会增加。
At other times, increases in tax revenues and declines in spending, in combination with strong economic performance, can lead to declines in debt as a percentage of GDP.
在其他时候，税收收入的增加和支出的减少，加上强劲的经济表现，可能会导致债务占国内生产总值的百分比下降。
World War II resulted in unprecedented levels of debt as a percentage of GDP as a result of rapidly increasing outlays, which outpaced GDP growth.
由于支出迅速增加，超过了 GDP 的增长速度，第二次世界大战导致债务占 GDP 的比例达到前所未有的水平。
After the war ended, debt as a percentage of GDP fell in nearly every year over the next three decades as a result of strong economic growth.
战争结束后，由于经济强劲增长，债务占GDP的比例在接下来的三十年里几乎每年都在下降。
After that period of strong GDP growth, rapid increases in defense spending and tax cuts during the 1980s resulted in a decade-long trend of rising debt as a percentage of GDP.
在GDP强劲增长时期之后，20世纪80年代国防开支的快速增加和减税导致债务占GDP的比例呈现长达十年的上升趋势。
The early 1990s were characterized by tax increases, a recession, and rising debt as a percentage of GDP.
20 世纪 90 年代初的特点是税收增加、经济衰退以及债务占 GDP 的比例不断上升。
This was followed by several years of budget surpluses and a strong economy, which led to declines in debt as a percentage of GDP in the late 1990s.
随后几年出现预算盈余和强劲的经济，导致 20 世纪 90 年代末债务占 GDP 的百分比下降。
Currently, tax cuts, increases in spending, and a weak economy have resulted in rising debt levels as a percentage of GDP.
目前，减税、支出增加和经济疲软导致债务水平占GDP的百分比上升。
High levels of debt can have a significant impact on the federal budget and the economy over the long term.
从长远来看，高水平的债务可能会对联邦预算和经济产生重大影响。
Though debt levels today do not match historical highs, future levels of debt concern many.
尽管目前的债务水平未达到历史高位，但未来的债务水平令许多人担忧。
CBO projected that a permanent and immediate combination of spending cuts and revenue increases amounting to 6.9% of GDP will be necessary in order to maintain the present level of debt (as a percentage of GDP) 50 years from now.
CBO 预测，为了在 50 年后维持目前的债务水平（占 GDP 的百分比），需要立即永久性地削减支出并增加收入，使其占 GDP 的 6.9%。
If immediate actions are not taken, the magnitude of changes required in the future would be greater.
如果不立即采取行动，未来所需的变革幅度将会更大。
If large primary deficits (deficits in excess of the net interest payment) persist or if the interest rate on the debt exceeds economic growth indefinitely, it may become harder for the federal government to find investors willing to purchase new debt.
如果巨额基本赤字（赤字超过净利息支付）持续存在，或者债务利率无限期超过经济增长，联邦政府可能会更难找到愿意购买新债务的投资者。
This might lead to an inherently unstable situation with regard to the government’s ability to incur future debt.
这可能会导致政府未来债务能力出现本质上不稳定的情况。
This report will be updated as events warrant.
本报告将根据事件需要进行更新。
Financing the obligations of the United States has always been a central concern of Congress and the President.
为美国的债务融资一直是国会和总统关心的核心问题。
If policy decisions and economic conditions lead to levels of government spending which exceed revenue collection, the government will incur debt.
如果政策决定和经济状况导致政府支出水平超过收入水平，政府将产生债务。
Levels of federal debt are reported in terms of debt held by federal government accounts (intragovernmental), and gross (total) federal debt.
联邦债务水平以联邦政府账户（政府内）持有的债务和联邦债务总额来报告。
Debt held by the public is the total amount the federal government has borrowed from the public and remains outstanding.
公众持有的债务是联邦政府向公众借款且未偿还的债务总额。
Intragovernmental debt is the amount owed by the federal government to other federal agencies.
政府内债务是联邦政府欠其他联邦机构的金额。
Gross federal debt is composed of debt held by the public and intragovernmental debt.
联邦债务总额由公共债务和政府内部债务组成。
Movements in federal debt occur over time.
联邦债务的变动随着时间的推移而发生。
Historical trends can be useful in synthesizing how policy and the economy affect the debt outlook.
历史趋势有助于综合政策和经济如何影响债务前景。
In most years, debt held by the public has increased on a nominal basis.
在大多数年份，公众持有的债务名义上有所增加。
Nominal measures of debt, however, do not control for inflation.
然而，名义债务指标并不能控制通货膨胀。
As long as the economy grows faster than the debt, the debt will become less burdensome relative to the economy as a whole.
只要经济增速快于债务增速，债务相对于整体经济的负担就会减轻。
Measuring debt as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) controls for effects such as inflation and economic growth, allowing for comparisons over time.
将债务占国内生产总值 (GDP) 的百分比进行衡量可以控制通货膨胀和经济增长等影响，从而可以随时间进行比较。
Factors influencing movements in debt levels include spending levels, revenue collections, and economic growth.
影响债务水平变动的因素包括支出水平、收入和经济增长。
These factors can lead to changes in debt as a percentage of GDP which cannot always be anticipated.
这些因素可能会导致债务占 GDP 的百分比发生变化，而这种变化并不总是可以预测的。
For example, if increases in spending or decreases in tax revenue outweigh strong GDP growth, debt as a percentage of GDP can increase.
例如，如果支出的增加或税收的减少超过了 GDP 的强劲增长，债务占 GDP 的百分比就会增加。
At other times, increases in tax revenues and declines in spending, in combination with strong economic performance, can lead to declines in debt as a percentage of GDP.
在其他时候，税收收入的增加和支出的减少，加上强劲的经济表现，可能会导致债务占国内生产总值的百分比下降。
World War II resulted in unprecedented levels of debt as a percentage of GDP as a result of rapidly increasing outlays, which outpaced GDP growth.
由于支出迅速增加，超过了 GDP 的增长速度，第二次世界大战导致债务占 GDP 的比例达到前所未有的水平。
After the war ended, debt as a percentage of GDP fell in nearly every year over the next three decades as a result of strong economic growth.
战争结束后，由于经济强劲增长，债务占GDP的比例在接下来的三十年里几乎每年都在下降。
After that period of strong GDP growth, rapid increases in defense spending and tax cuts during the 1980s resulted in a decade-long trend of rising debt as a percentage of GDP.
在GDP强劲增长时期之后，20世纪80年代国防开支的快速增加和减税导致债务占GDP的比例呈现长达十年的上升趋势。
The early 1990s were characterized by tax increases, a recession, and rising debt as a percentage of GDP.
20 世纪 90 年代初的特点是税收增加、经济衰退以及债务占 GDP 的比例不断上升。
This was followed by several years of budget surpluses and a strong economy, which led to declines in debt as a percentage of GDP in the late 1990s.
随后几年出现预算盈余和强劲的经济，导致 20 世纪 90 年代末债务占 GDP 的百分比下降。
Currently, tax cuts, increases in spending, and a weak economy have resulted in rising debt levels as a percentage of GDP.
目前，减税、支出增加和经济疲软导致债务水平占GDP的百分比上升。
High levels of debt can have a significant impact on the federal budget and the economy over the long term.
从长远来看，高水平的债务可能会对联邦预算和经济产生重大影响。
Though debt levels today do not match historical highs, future levels of debt concern many.
尽管目前的债务水平未达到历史高位，但未来的债务水平令许多人担忧。
CBO projected that a permanent and immediate combination of spending cuts and revenue increases amounting to 6.9% of GDP will be necessary in order to maintain the present level of debt (as a percentage of GDP) 50 years from now.
CBO 预测，为了在 50 年后维持目前的债务水平（占 GDP 的百分比），需要立即永久性地削减支出并增加收入，使其占 GDP 的 6.9%。
If immediate actions are not taken, the magnitude of changes required in the future would be greater.
如果不立即采取行动，未来所需的变革幅度将会更大。
If large primary deficits (deficits in excess of the net interest payment) persist or if the interest rate on the debt exceeds economic growth indefinitely, it may become harder for the federal government to find investors willing to purchase new debt.
如果巨额基本赤字（赤字超过净利息支付）持续存在，或者债务利率无限期超过经济增长，联邦政府可能会更难找到愿意购买新债务的投资者。
This might lead to an inherently unstable situation with regard to the government's ability to incur future debt.
这可能会导致政府未来债务能力出现本质上不稳定的情况。
This report will be updated as events warrant.
本报告将根据事件需要进行更新。
Congress debates the appropriate level of spending and revenues in every fiscal year through the budget and appropriations process.
国会通过预算和拨款程序讨论每个财政年度支出和收入的适当水平。
If resulting policy decisions, along with prevailing economic conditions, lead to levels of government spending which exceed revenue collection, the government will incur a budget deficit.
如果由此产生的政策决定以及当前的经济状况导致政府支出水平超过收入，政府将出现预算赤字。
1 When a deficit occurs, how to finance the resulting debt and the long term implications of rising debt levels becomes a concern for Congress and the President.
1 当出现赤字时，如何为由此产生的债务融资以及债务水平上升的长期影响成为国会和总统关心的问题。
The President is required by statute to report essential information about government debt in the annual budget submission to Congress.
法律要求总统在向国会提交的年度预算中报告有关政府债务的重要信息。
2 Data on the levels of federal debt are often reported in three categories: debt held by the public, debt held by federal government accounts (intragovernmental), and gross (total) federal debt.
2 联邦债务水平的数据通常分为三类：公众持有的债务、联邦政府账户持有的债务（政府内）和联邦债务总额。
3 Debt held by the public is the total amount the federal government has borrowed from the public and remains outstanding.
3 公众持有的债务是联邦政府向公众借入且未偿还的债务总额。
This measure is generally considered to be the most relevant in macro-economic terms, because it is the amount of debt sold in credit markets.
该指标通常被认为与宏观经济最为相关，因为它是信贷市场上出售的债务数量。
Typically, changes in debt held by the public closely correspond to each fiscal year's unified budget surplus or deficit.
通常，公众持有的债务变化与每个财政年度的统一预算盈余或赤字密切相关。
4 Intragovernmental debt is the amount owed by the federal government to other federal agencies, and to be paid by the Department of the Treasury.
4 政府内债务是联邦政府欠其他联邦机构的金额，由财政部支付。
This amount largely consists of money contained in trust funds, such as Social Security, that has been invested in federal securities as required by law.
这笔金额主要包括社会保障等信托基金中的资金，这些资金已按照法律要求投资于联邦证券。
5 Gross federal debt is composed of debt held by the public and intragovernmental debt.
5 联邦债务总额由公共债务和政府内部债务组成。
Factors influencing movements in debt include spending levels, revenue collections, and economic growth.
影响债务变动的因素包括支出水平、收入和经济增长。
In most years, debt held by the public has increased on a nominal basis.
在大多数年份，公众持有的债务名义上有所增加。
Nominal measures of debt, however, do not control for inflation.
然而，名义债务指标并不能控制通货膨胀。
As long as the economy grows faster than the debt, the debt will become less burdensome relative to the economy as a whole.
只要经济增速快于债务增速，债务相对于整体经济的负担就会减轻。
Observing historical trends in federal debt levels can illustrate how budget policy and the economy affect the debt outlook and illustrate the reasons why large changes in debt levels occurred.
观察联邦债务水平的历史趋势可以说明预算政策和经济如何影响债务前景，并说明债务水平发生大幅变化的原因。
The recent economic slowdown has led to growing concern over increasing debt levels and resulted in questions about the future fiscal health of the country.
最近的经济放缓导致人们越来越担心债务水平上升，并引发对该国未来财政健康状况的质疑。
Ultimately, there are many implications to consider when setting policy initiatives and agendas with regard to federal debt.
最终，在制定有关联邦债务的政策举措和议程时，需要考虑许多影响。
This report will define the measures of debt, discuss the reasons why debt levels change, and use historical examples to illustrate the factors causing debt movements over the last seven decades.
本报告将定义债务的衡量标准，讨论债务水平变化的原因，并利用历史例子来说明导致过去七十年债务变动的因素。
Recent policies that have affected the budgetary outlook and the debt will also be discussed.
还将讨论影响预算前景和债务的近期政策。
Finally, this report will examine the long-term U.S. debt outlook and implications of rising federal debt levels.
最后，本报告将研究美国的长期债务前景以及联邦债务水平上升的影响。
In nearly every year since the establishment of the country, the government has accumulated debt.
自建国以来，政府几乎每年都在积累债务。
6 World War II (WWII) represented a new era in debt levels and the role of the United States in the global economy.
6 第二次世界大战 (WWII) 代表了债务水平和美国在全球经济中的作用的新时代。
This peak in debt levels is used as the starting point to show how federal debt levels have changed over the last seven decades.
债务水平的峰值被用作显示联邦债务水平在过去七十年中如何变化的起点。
Spending levels (outlays), revenue collections (receipts), and economic growth affect the federal debt.
支出水平（支出）、收入（收据）和经济增长都会影响联邦债务。
Debt levels increase or decrease due to changes in outlays and receipts, which are influenced by economic conditions, demographic trends, and legislative action.
债务水平因支出和收入的变化而增加或减少，而支出和收入又受到经济状况、人口趋势和立法行动的影响。
Though movements in debt can be defined in a number of ways, these factors will be used in this report to identify changes in debt levels.
尽管债务变动可以通过多种方式定义，但本报告将使用这些因素来确定债务水平的变化。
In order to make an appropriate comparison over time, outlays, receipts, and debt will be measured as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP).
为了进行适当的比较，支出、收入和债务将按国内生产总值 (GDP) 的百分比来衡量。
Gross debt as a percentage of GDP reached unprecedented levels in the 1940s due to WWII, when the size of the debt exceeded the size of the economy.
由于二战，20世纪40年代债务总额占GDP的比例达到了前所未有的水平，当时债务规模超过了经济规模。
These levels have not been seen before or since in the United States.
这些水平在美国之前或之后都没有出现过。
After the war ended, federal debt fell in nearly every year, as a percentage of GDP, for the next three decades as a result of strong economic growth during most of the period.
战争结束后，在接下来的三十年里，由于大部分时期经济强劲增长，联邦债务占国内生产总值的百分比几乎每年都在下降。
After years of declining debt, the trend reversed in the 1980s and debt as a percentage of GDP began rising.
经过多年的债务下降，这一趋势在 20 世纪 80 年代发生逆转，债务占 GDP 的比例开始上升。
This upward trend continued for almost two decades as debt as a percentage of GDP grew to match the levels of the 1950s.
随着债务占 GDP 的比例增长至 20 世纪 50 年代的水平，这种上升趋势持续了近二十年。
Between 1998 and 2001, federal debt as a percentage of GDP began declining once again, as a result of budget surpluses.
1998年至2001年间，由于预算盈余，联邦债务占GDP的百分比再次开始下降。
The federal budget returned to deficit in 2002 and debt as a percentage of GDP also rose.
2002年联邦预算恢复赤字，债务占GDP的比例也上升。
Current projections forecast debt to continue to rise for the foreseeable future.
目前的预测预计，在可预见的未来，债务将继续增加。
Figure 1 depicts gross debt and debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP between 1940 and 2009.
图 1 描绘了 1940 年至 2009 年间总债务和公众持有的债务占 GDP 的百分比。
7 The gap between the line depicting gross federal debt and debt held by the public represents intragovernmental debt.
7 联邦总债务与公众持有债务的线之间的差距代表政府内部债务。
Figure 1 also includes recessionary periods marked by shaded bars, in order to provide an illustration of how the economy affected debt movements.
图 1 还包括以阴影条标记的衰退期，以说明经济如何影响债务变动。
This will be discussed in greater detail throughout the report.
本报告将对此进行更详细的讨论。
Source : Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2011 , Historical Tables volume, Table 7.1 and The National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions .
资料来源：管理和预算办公室，美国政府预算，2011 财年，历史表格卷，表 7.1 和国家经济研究局，美国经济周期扩张和收缩。
Note : Appendix B of this report includes individual fiscal year data corresponding to Figure 1 .
注：本报告附录B包含与图1相对应的各个会计年度数据。
As a percentage of GDP, gross debt reached its peak in 1946 (121.7%).
债务总额占 GDP 的百分比在 1946 年达到顶峰（121.7%）。
The minimum level was reached in 1981 (32.5%).
1981 年达到最低水平（32.5%）。
In 2009, gross debt as a percentage of GDP reached 83.4% and debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP reached 53.0%.
2009年，总债务占GDP的比重达到83.4%，公共债务占GDP的比重达到53.0%。
These levels of debt as percentages of GDP had not been seen since 1950 and 1955, respectively.
如此高的债务占 GDP 的百分比是 1950 年和 1955 年以来所未见的。
8 Intragovernmental debt holdings as a percentage of GDP have increased steadily since 1984 as evidenced by the widening gap between the lines depicting gross debt and debt held by the public.
8 自 1984 年以来，政府内债务持有量占国内生产总值的百分比稳步上升，总债务与公众持有债务之间的差距不断扩大就证明了这一点。
This indicates that the amount of money held in the trust funds and other government accounts is increasing.
这表明信托基金和其他政府账户中持有的资金数量正在增加。
The future implications of this will be discussed towards the end of this report.
其未来影响将在本报告末尾讨论。
Policy decisions and economic conditions affect federal debt.
政策决定和经济状况影响联邦债务。
Policy decisions translate into annual spending and revenue levels.
政策决策转化为年度支出和收入水平。
Spending and revenue levels are further affected by economic performance.
支出和收入水平进一步受到经济表现的影响。
The individual effects of these elements, as well as their interaction effects, will be used to analyze debt movements over the last seven decades.
这些因素的单独影响以及它们的相互作用影响将被用来分析过去七十年的债务变动。
Federal spending is generally divided into the categories of mandatory, discretionary, and net interest.
联邦支出通常分为强制性支出、可自由支配支出和净利息支出。
Spending levels are influenced by policy choices and economic conditions.
支出水平受到政策选择和经济状况的影响。
Discretionary spending is provided through annual appropriations acts and is often further divided into defense and non-defense categories.
可自由支配支出通过年度拨款法案提供，通常进一步分为国防和非国防类别。
Mandatory spending (e.g., Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid) is controlled by laws other than annual appropriations acts.
强制性支出（例如社会保障、医疗保险、医疗补助）受年度拨款法案以外的法律控制。
When first enacted, the portion of the federal budget necessary to pay for mandatory programs was much lower than it is today.
刚颁布时，用于支付强制性计划所需的联邦预算部分比现在低得多。
9 As mandatory spending increases, the share of discretionary spending as a percentage of total federal spending has declined.
9 随着强制性支出的增加，可自由支配支出占联邦总支出的比例有所下降。
10 Mandatory spending is projected to continue growing at a rapid rate.
10 强制性支出预计将继续快速增长。
Outlays for net interest depend on the level of borrowing and the interest rate.
净利息支出取决于借款水平和利率。
Mandatory and discretionary spending can be influenced by economic conditions.
强制性和可自由支配的支出可能会受到经济状况的影响。
During economic downturns, expenditures can rise as more people become eligible for mandatory programs such as unemployment insurance and income support programs.
在经济衰退期间，随着越来越多的人有资格参加失业保险和收入支持计划等强制性计划，支出可能会增加。
These effects, known as "automatic stabilizers," provide a countercyclical fiscal stimulus in the short run without the need for new legislative action.
这些被称为“自动稳定器”的效应可以在短期内提供反周期的财政刺激，而无需采取新的立法行动。
Discretionary spending can also increase if economic downturns lead to federal responses to increase outlays.
如果经济衰退导致联邦政府增加支出，可自由支配支出也可能增加。
In the case of both mandatory and discretionary spending, strong economic performance may or may not result in lower outlays in each category, depending on changes in federal policy.
在强制性支出和可自由支配支出的情况下，强劲的经济表现可能会也可能不会导致每个类别的支出下降，具体取决于联邦政策的变化。
In the absence of other economic or policy changes, increases in spending levels result in larger deficits or smaller surpluses.
在没有其他经济或政策变化的情况下，支出水平的增加会导致更大的赤字或更少的盈余。
Deficits will increase debt held by the public and will generally lead to increases in gross debt as a percentage of GDP.
赤字将增加公众持有的债务，通常会导致债务总额占国内生产总值的百分比增加。
Decreases in spending, all else equal, will lead to larger surpluses or smaller deficits, generally resulting in decreases in both gross debt and debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP.
在其他条件相同的情况下，支出的减少将导致盈余增加或赤字减少，通常会导致债务总额和公众持有的债务占国内生产总值的百分比下降。
Receipt levels, comprised of the broad categories of income, corporate, social insurance, excise, estate and gift, customs, and miscellaneous taxes, also have an impact on the debt.
收入水平，包括收入、公司、社会保险、消费税、遗产和赠与、关税和杂项税等大类，也对债务有影响。
In the absence of other changes, increases in receipts will result in larger surpluses or smaller deficits.
在没有其他变化的情况下，收入的增加将导致盈余增加或赤字减少。
Generally, this will lead to declines in debt held by the public and gross debt as a percentage of GDP.
一般来说，这将导致公共债务和总债务占国内生产总值的百分比下降。
The opposite will occur if receipt levels decline.
如果收入水平下降，则会出现相反的情况。
Economic performance heavily influences receipt levels.
经济表现严重影响收入水平。
During periods of sustained growth, revenue collections through income, corporate, and capital gains taxes will generally be stronger and result in larger collections by the Department of the Treasury in the absence of changes in law.
在持续增长时期，在法律没有变化的情况下，通过所得税、公司税和资本利得税征收的收入通常会更强，并导致财政部征收更多的税款。
Conversely, economic weakness generally decreases receipts.
相反，经济疲软通常会减少收入。
Individuals may see a decline in their incomes and corporations might experience a decline in profits.
个人收入可能会下降，公司利润可能会下降。
In the aggregate, this can cause a decrease in receipts collected.
总的来说，这可能会导致收集的收据减少。
Policy changes can also influence receipt levels.
政策变化也会影响收入水平。
Tax legislation has led to dramatic changes in receipt levels over time.
随着时间的推移，税收立法导致收入水平发生巨大变化。
With all else equal, higher marginal tax rates will lead to increases in receipts, leading to larger surpluses or smaller deficits and decreases in both gross debt and debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP.
在其他条件相同的情况下，较高的边际税率将导致收入增加，从而导致盈余增加或赤字减少，并减少总债务和公众持有的债务占国内生产总值的百分比。
The opposite is true if marginal tax rates decline.
如果边际税率下降，则情况相反。
Strength or weakness in the economy can also affect debt levels.
经济的强弱也会影响债务水平。
In the absence of changes in spending and receipts, GDP growth allows an economy to absorb higher levels of debt and will generally result in a decrease in the ratios of both the gross debt and debt held by the public, as a percentage of GDP.
在支出和收入没有变化的情况下，GDP 增长使经济体能够吸收更高水平的债务，通常会导致总债务和公众持有的债务占 GDP 的比例下降。
For example, even though interest payments increase as debt levels rise, strong GDP growth can offset these increases by creating a higher potential tax base, thereby reducing the portion of the budget devoted to paying interest expenses.
例如，尽管利息支出随着债务水平的上升而增加，但强劲的GDP增长可以通过创造更高的潜在税基来抵消这些增加，从而减少用于支付利息支出的预算部分。
The opposite would occur if economic growth is weak.
如果经济增长疲弱，则会出现相反的情况。
Federal budget data, including debt, are often evaluated using GDP as a base, because it facilitates comparisons over time.
包括债务在内的联邦预算数据通常以国内生产总值为基础进行评估，因为它有助于随时间的推移进行比较。
During the FY1940 to FY2009 (the period analyzed in this report), GDP growth alone did not necessarily result in the expected movements in debt as a percentage of GDP, showing that other factors influenced changes in debt levels.
1940财年至2009财年（本报告分析的时期）期间，GDP增长本身并不一定会导致债务占GDP百分比的预期变动，这表明其他因素影响了债务水平的变化。
Movements in spending, receipts, or GDP can effect the federal debt.
支出、收入或 GDP 的变动可能会影响联邦债务。
Often these changes can occur simultaneously.
通常这些变化可以同时发生。
Economic fluctuations tend to automatically cause short-run changes in the annual deficits.
经济波动往往会自动导致年度赤字的短期变化。
Spending and revenue levels are affected by economic growth, which stimulates employment and individual income, and economic contraction, which reduces consumption and increases reliance on government programs.
支出和收入水平受到经济增长和经济收缩的影响，经济增长会刺激就业和个人收入，而经济收缩会减少消费并增加对政府计划的依赖。
For example, in a strong economy, new jobs are often created.
例如，在强劲的经济中，经常会创造新的就业机会。
In response, if the unemployed become employed and earn higher incomes, additional tax revenue will be generated.
因此，如果失业者就业并获得更高的收入，就会产生额外的税收收入。
In contrast, in a weak economy, people may lose their jobs, which could lower tax revenue and increase government expenditures on programs such as unemployment insurance and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP; formerly known as "food stamps").
相反，在经济疲软的情况下，人们可能会失业，这可能会减少税收收入并增加政府在失业保险和补充营养援助计划（SNAP；以前称为“食品券”）等计划上的支出。
Figure 2 summarizes movements in outlays, receipts, and debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP since 1940.
图 2 总结了自 1940 年以来支出、收入和公众持有的债务占 GDP 的百分比的变化。
Outlays greatly exceeded receipts during WWII.
二战期间的支出大大超过了收入。
As the war ended and spending fell, outlays only slightly exceeded receipts for the next several decades, resulting in small budget deficits.
随着战争结束和支出下降，接下来几十年的支出仅略高于收入，导致预算赤字很小。
Despite these deficits, growth in GDP exceeded the growth in debt levels causing the debt as a percentage of GDP to fall.
尽管存在这些赤字，国内生产总值的增长超过了债务水平的增长，导致债务占国内生产总值的百分比下降。
Starting in the 1980s and continuing to today, outlays have significantly exceeded receipts in most years, resulting in budget deficits and increases in debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP.
从 20 世纪 80 年代开始一直持续到今天，大多数年份的支出都大大超过收入，导致预算赤字和公众持有的债务占 GDP 的比例增加。
Between 1998 and 2001, revenues exceeded outlays as a result of spending cuts and strong economic growth, creating a short period of declining debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP.
1998年至2001年间，由于支出削减和强劲的经济增长，收入超过了支出，导致公众持有的债务占GDP的比例在短期内下降。
As the economic downturn took hold at the end of 2007, GDP growth and revenues declined, while outlays grew significantly.
2007年底，随着经济衰退，GDP增长和收入下降，而支出却大幅增长。
This led to large increases in debt held by the public.
这导致公众持有的债务大幅增加。
Projections of future growth in debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP, if current policies continue, show continuous increases though 2020 and beyond.
如果现行政策继续下去，未来公众持有的债务占 GDP 的百分比预计将在 2020 年及以后持续增长。
11
11
Source : Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2011, Historical Tables volume, Tables 1.2 and 7.1.
资料来源：管理和预算办公室，美国政府预算，2011 财年，历史表格卷，表 1.2 和 7.1。
Note : Appendix B includes individual fiscal year data corresponding to Figure 2 .
注：附录 B 包括与图 2 相对应的各个财政年度数据。
Changes in debt as a percentage of GDP are not always predictable.
债务占 GDP 百分比的变化并不总是可预测的。
In some instances, increases in spending or decreases in tax revenue outweighed strong GDP growth, causing debt as a percentage of GDP to increase rather than decrease.
在某些情况下，支出的增加或税收的减少超过了国内生产总值的强劲增长，导致债务占国内生产总值的百分比增加而不是减少。
At other times, a combination of tax revenue increases, spending reductions, and strong economic performance led to declines in debt as a percentage of GDP.
在其他时候，税收增加、支出减少和强劲的经济表现共同导致债务占国内生产总值的百分比下降。
Another way to assess how policy choices and economic conditions affect the debt is to use standardized budget data calculated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
评估政策选择和经济状况如何影响债务的另一种方法是使用国会预算办公室（CBO）计算的标准化预算数据。
This data series estimates the level of receipts and outlays if the economy fully employed its resources, and is useful in determining the impact of the business cycle and other short-lived cyclical fluctuations on the level of revenues and outlays.
该数据系列估计经济体充分利用其资源时的收入和支出水平，有助于确定商业周期和其他短期周期性波动对收入和支出水平的影响。
12 The change in standardized data over a specific period provides a rough estimate of the effects of policy changes on receipts, outlays, and the deficit because economic and temporary factors have been stripped out.
12 由于经济和临时因素已被剔除，特定时期内标准化数据的变化可以粗略估计政策变化对收入、支出和赤字的影响。
These CBO data will be used throughout this report during discussions of certain historical periods in which the economy and policy decisions appeared to have significantly changed debt trends.
这些国会预算办公室的数据将在本报告中讨论经济和政策决策似乎显着改变了债务趋势的某些历史时期时使用。
The Department of the Treasury, among other roles, manages the country's debt.
财政部的职责之一是管理国家的债务。
Treasury's strategy is to finance the government's borrowing needs at the lowest cost over time.
财政部的策略是随着时间的推移以最低的成本满足政府的借贷需求。
Treasury securities, used to finance the federal debt, are sold on a regular and predictable schedule through an auction process with different terms of maturity.
用于为联邦债务融资的国库券通过具有不同期限的拍卖过程定期且可预测的时间表出售。
These securities are purchased and held by large financial institutions (or primary dealers), the Federal Reserve, individual investors, other dealers and brokers, private pension and retirement funds, insurance companies, investment funds, and foreign investors (private citizens and government entities).
这些证券由大型金融机构（或一级交易商）、美联储、个人投资者、其他交易商和经纪人、私人养老和退休基金、保险公司、投资基金和外国投资者（私人公民和政府实体）购买和持有。
In order to decide whether to purchase securities, investors examine price, expected return, and level of risk.
为了决定是否购买证券，投资者会检查价格、预期回报和风险水平。
13
13
In order for Treasury to sell debt, buyers must have confidence in the value of U.S. currency and the ability of the government to pay back its obligations.
为了让财政部出售债务，买家必须对美元的价值以及政府偿还债务的能力有信心。
If the growth in debt levels exceeds growth in the economy over the long term, an inherently unstable situation will result if investors lose confidence in U.S. debt.
如果债务水平的增长长期超过经济增长，投资者对美国债务失去信心，就会导致本质上不稳定的局面。
14 If large primary deficits (deficits in excess of the net interest payment) are expected to persist, or if the interest rate on the debt is expected to exceed economic growth indefinitely, then it may become more and more difficult for the federal government to sell new securities.
14 如果预计巨额基本赤字（超过净利息支付的赤字）将持续存在，或者债务利率预计将无限期超过经济增长，那么联邦政府出售新证券可能会变得越来越困难。
In other words, it may become harder for the federal government to find investors willing to finance its deficits.
换句话说，联邦政府可能会更难找到愿意为其赤字融资的投资者。
At worst, private investors might come to doubt the federal government's ability even to meet its interest payments, and would be reluctant, if not completely unwilling, to hold government bonds.
在最坏的情况下，私人投资者甚至可能会怀疑联邦政府支付利息的能力，并且不愿意（如果不是完全不愿意）持有政府债券。
There are two possible outcomes should the federal government be unable to sell its securities.
如果联邦政府无法出售其证券，可能会出现两种结果。
First, the federal government could simply find itself unable to meet its obligations.
首先，联邦政府可能会发现自己无法履行其义务。
If this occurs, either spending would have to be cut or taxes increased enough to eliminate the shortfall.
如果发生这种情况，要么必须削减支出，要么增加税收以消除缺口。
Second, the Federal Reserve (Fed) could buy sufficient Treasury securities in order to sustain their marketability.
其次，美联储可以购买足够的国债以维持其适销性。
15 When the Fed buys Treasury securities, it does so with the equivalent of newly issued currency (Federal Reserve notes).
15 当美联储购买国债时，它使用的是新发行的货币（美联储票据）的等值物。
This increases the stock of reserves to commercial banks, thus increasing the banks' capacity to lend money and the stock of money in circulation.
这增加了商业银行的准备金存量，从而增加了银行的放贷能力和流通货币存量。
(The reverse is true if the Fed decides to sell securities from its portfolio.) 16 Having the Fed buy Treasury securities is not without certain economic risks, including the possibility of rapidly accelerating inflation.
（如果美联储决定出售其投资组合中的证券，则情况相反。）16 让美联储购买国债并非没有一定的经济风险，包括通货膨胀迅速加速的可能性。
If a country has a large government debt, there may be temptation to reduce the real value of that debt through inflation.
如果一个国家拥有大量政府债务，那么可能会通过通货膨胀来降低债务的实际价值。
However, higher inflation may lead to higher nominal interest rates causing investors to demand a higher rate of return on Treasury securities in order to protect themselves from a decline in the value of their assets.
然而，通胀上升可能导致名义利率上升，从而导致投资者要求国债获得更高的回报率，以保护自己免受资产价值下降的影响。
The independence of the Federal Reserve in setting monetary policy is generally believed to reduce the possibility that inflation will be used to reduce the real value of the federal debt.
人们普遍认为，美联储在制定货币政策方面的独立性可以降低通货膨胀被用来降低联邦债务实际价值的可能性。
17
17 号
Some policy analysts assert that the fiscal situation in the United States is unsustainable and represents a threat to economic stability necessitating significant changes in fiscal policy.
一些政策分析师断言，美国的财政状况不可持续，对经济稳定构成威胁，需要对财政政策进行重大改变。
18 Current federal debt appears to be short of the level thought to be associated with this risk though there is no precise way to predict the threshold at which debt may become unsustainable.
18 尽管没有精确的方法来预测债务可能变得不可持续的阈值，但当前的联邦债务似乎低于被认为与这种风险相关的水平。
For the moment, federal debt remains below the level it reached following World War II.
目前，联邦债务仍低于二战后的水平。
Changes in debt cannot always be anticipated.
债务的变化并不总是可以预测的。
Some policy choices lead to immediate upward movements in debt.
一些政策选择导致债务立即上升。
Others, however, are expected to result in larger increases at some point in the future, relative to the time period of enactment.
然而，其他一些措施预计将在未来某个时间导致相对于颁布时间段的更大幅度的增长。
The economy, through its effects on revenues and outlays, has also played a significant role in debt movements.
经济通过其对收入和支出的影响，也在债务变动中发挥了重要作用。
However, the effects of strong or weak GDP growth have not always resulted in predictable movements in debt levels.
然而，GDP 增长强劲或疲软的影响并不总是会导致债务水平发生可预测的变动。
In some instances, strong GDP growth was outweighed by increases in spending or decreases in tax revenues, causing debt as a percentage of GDP to increase instead of decrease.
在某些情况下，GDP的强劲增长被支出的增加或税收收入的减少所抵消，导致债务占GDP的比例增加而不是减少。
At other times, a strong economic performance led to declines in debt as a percentage of GDP.
在其他时候，强劲的经济表现导致债务占国内生产总值的百分比下降。
Large debt increases in earlier decades were focused around wars or other defense related activities.
前几十年债务的大幅增加主要集中在战争或其他国防相关活动上。
This was followed by a long period of steady economic growth, which generally exceeded budget deficits and resulted in declining levels of federal debt as a percentage of GDP.
随后是长期稳定的经济增长，普遍超过预算赤字，导致联邦债务占国内生产总值的百分比下降。
Beginning in the early 1980s and for the better part of two decades, debt as a percentage of GDP rose steadily, largely due to policy choices that increased spending and several recessions.
从 20 世纪 80 年代初开始，在二十年的大部分时间里，债务占 GDP 的比例稳步上升，这主要是由于增加支出的政策选择和几次经济衰退。
Following a brief period of declining debt as a percentage of GDP in the late 1990s, it has risen again.
债务占 GDP 的比例在 20 世纪 90 年代末短暂下降后，又再次上升。
Most recently, federal financial interventions, used to combat the recession and alleviate financial market instability, heightened concerns about increasing debt levels.
最近，用于应对经济衰退和缓解金融市场不稳定的联邦金融干预措施加剧了人们对债务水平上升的担忧。
Current projections show increasing levels of debt in the future, largely due to high levels of entitlement spending.
目前的预测显示，未来债务水平将会上升，这主要是由于高水平的福利支出。
Historical examples will illustrate how some of the major changes in debt over the last seven decades have been affected by outlays, receipts, GDP growth, and economic interactions during specific periods.
历史例子将说明过去七十年中债务的一些重大变化是如何受到特定时期的支出、收入、GDP 增长和经济互动的影响的。
These periods were chosen for one of two reasons: 1) changes in debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP were relatively large or 2) anticipated large changes in debt levels did not materialize due to economic conditions or other factors.
选择这些时期的原因有两个：1）公众持有的债务占 GDP 的百分比变化相对较大，或者 2）由于经济状况或其他因素，预计债务水平的大幅变化并未实现。
In December 1941, the U.S. entered WWII.
1941 年 12 月，美国加入第二次世界大战。
Large war-time spending increases led to unprecedented levels of federal debt as a percentage of GDP.
战时支出的大幅增加导致联邦债务占国内生产总值的比例达到前所未有的水平。
Outlays, as a percentage of GDP, doubled between 1941 and 1942 and nearly doubled again between 1942 and 1943.
支出占 GDP 的百分比在 1941 年至 1942 年间翻了一番，1942 年至 1943 年又几乎翻了一番。
Between 1940 and 1943, outlays rose from 9.8% to 43.6% of GDP.
1940 年至 1943 年间，支出占 GDP 的比例从 9.8% 上升至 43.6%。
Total spending remained at the 1943 rate for the next two years and fell quickly in 1946 as the war ended.
在接下来的两年里，总支出保持在 1943 年的水平，并在 1946 年战争结束后迅速下降。
These increases were almost entirely a result of increases in defense-related spending, which rose from 1.7% of GDP in 1940 to 37.5% of GDP in 1945.
这些增长几乎完全是国防相关支出增加的结果，国防相关支出从 1940 年占 GDP 的 1.7% 上升到 1945 年占 GDP 的 37.5%。
19 By 1947, outlays had essentially returned to their 1941 levels, hovering around 15% of GDP for the next several years.
19 到 1947 年，支出基本恢复到 1941 年的水平，并在接下来的几年里徘徊在 GDP 的 15% 左右。
The spending increases and their lasting effects resulted in a doubling of debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP rising from 44.2% in 1940 to 108.7% in 1946.
支出增加及其持久影响导致公众持有的债务占 GDP 的比例翻了一番，从 1940 年的 44.2% 上升到 1946 年的 108.7%。
Gross debt nearly equaled or surpassed GDP between 1944 and 1950.
1944 年至 1950 年间，总债务几乎等于或超过 GDP。
20
20
The war-related spending during this period resulted in strong economic growth.
这一时期与战争相关的支出导致了经济的强劲增长。
Though GDP, in constant terms, rose nearly 50% between 1940 and 1950, the growth was not enough to compensate for the effects of the huge increases in spending.
尽管按不变价格计算，1940 年至 1950 年间 GDP 增长了近 50%，但增长不足以弥补支出大幅增长的影响。
The result was massive surges in debt as a percentage of GDP.
结果是债务占国内生产总值的比例大幅上升。
21
21
After WWII ended, debt as a percentage of GDP fell in nearly every year over the next three decades.
二战结束后，债务占GDP的比例在接下来的三十年里几乎每年都在下降。
Several events highlighted the 1960s, including the Vietnam War and the expansion of healthcare related entitlement programs.
20 世纪 60 年代发生了几件突出的事件，包括越南战争和医疗保健相关权利计划的扩展。
Receipts remained relatively constant.
收入保持相对稳定。
At the same time however, debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP was on a downward trend largely due to strong economic performance: GDP grew at an average annual rate of 4.6% during the decade.
但与此同时，公众持有的债务占GDP的比例呈下降趋势，这主要是由于强劲的经济表现：十年间GDP年均增长率为4.6%。
22 This indicates that despite an increase in spending over this period, economic growth outweighed the effect of this spending to produce lower levels of debt as a percentage of GDP.
22 这表明，尽管这一时期支出有所增加，但经济增长超过了支出的影响，导致债务占 GDP 的比例较低。
In other words, higher levels of spending do not always translate to higher debt as a percentage of GDP.
换句话说，较高的支出水平并不总是意味着较高的债务占 GDP 的比例。
Debt levels can be managed even with increases in spending, as long as other factors outweigh these effects.
只要其他因素超过这些影响，即使支出增加，债务水平也可以得到控制。
In 1965, President Johnson signed into law the Social Security Act Amendments of 1965 (P.L.
1965 年，约翰逊总统签署了《1965 年社会保障法修正案》(P.L.
89-97), which expanded and created new programs providing health benefits for elderly and poor Americans.
89-97），扩大并创建了新计划，为美国老年人和贫困人口提供健康福利。
23 These programs, modeled after New Deal era entitlement programs, granted specific monies to people who met certain conditions related to age, income status, or economic circumstance.
23 这些计划仿照新政时代的福利计划，向符合年龄、收入状况或经济状况等特定条件的人发放特定资金。
In addition, the eligibility criteria also include the payment of specific payroll taxes in order to qualify for certain benefits.
此外，资格标准还包括缴纳特定工资税以获得某些福利的资格。
At the time, these programs did not constitute a large portion of government spending or revenues.
当时，这些计划并不占政府支出或收入的很大一部分。
During the first fiscal year that Medicare and Medicaid were both in effect (FY1967) they consumed slightly over 9% of total federal mandatory spending, slightly more than 2% of total outlays, and 0.5% of GDP.
在医疗保险和医疗补助同时生效的第一个财政年度（1967 财年），它们消耗了联邦强制性支出总额的 9% 略多一点、总支出的 2% 略多一点以及 GDP 的 0.5%。
Medicare payroll taxes constituted 1.8% of total federal taxes collected, which nearly matched outlays for the entire program.
医疗保险工资税占联邦税收总额的 1.8%，几乎与整个计划的支出相匹配。
At that time, Social Security (i.e., old age and survivor's benefits and disability benefits under Title 2 of the Social Security Act) consumed 52% of spending on mandatory programs, almost 14% of total outlays, and 3% of GDP.
当时，社会保障（即《社会保障法》第二章规定的老年和遗属福利以及残疾福利）消耗了强制性计划支出的 52%，几乎占总支出的 14%，占 GDP 的 3%。
Total spending on mandatory programs in FY1967 was 26% of total outlays and 5% of GDP.
1967 财年强制性项目的总支出占总支出的 26%，占 GDP 的 5%。
24 Though not a large portion of total outlays at the onset, entitlements have come to alter the debate on the federal debt as more and more people begin drawing on the promised benefits, thereby consuming greater proportions of total outlays.
24 尽管一开始在总支出中所占比例并不大，但随着越来越多的人开始利用承诺的福利，从而消耗了总支出中更大的比例，福利已经开始改变关于联邦债务的争论。
25
25
In addition to these programs that created new government obligations, the country was also engaged in a war in Vietnam.
除了这些产生新政府义务的计划外，该国还参与了越南战争。
However, this conflict did not generate the same type of spending increases seen during WWII.
然而，这场冲突并没有产生二战期间那种类型的支出增长。
Defense spending in 1960 equaled 9.3% of GDP, fell to 7.4% of GDP in 1965, before rising again to 8.7% of GDP by 1969.
1960年国防开支占GDP的9.3%，1965年下降到GDP的7.4%，到1969年再次上升到GDP的8.7%。
26 This was largely because the Vietnam conflict was significantly smaller in scale compared to WWII and defense spending had already increased in response to the Cold War.
26 这主要是因为与二战相比，越南冲突的规模要小得多，而且为了应对冷战，国防开支已经增加。
27
27
During the 1960s, outlays averaged 18.6% of GDP with revenues at 17.9%.
20 世纪 60 年代，支出平均占 GDP 的 18.6%，收入占 GDP 的 17.9%。
The strength of the economy resulted in receipts as a percentage of GDP remaining relatively constant during this decade.
经济的强劲导致收入占 GDP 的百分比在这十年中保持相对稳定。
In 1960 and 1969, there were small budget surpluses.
1960年和1969年有小额预算盈余。
Unlike the previous experience with war, economic expansion translated into strong GDP growth and overwhelmed spending increases.
与以往的战争经历不同，经济扩张转化为强劲的 GDP 增长和不堪重负的支出增长。
This resulted in a decline in debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP, from 45.6% in 1960 and fell to 29.3% in 1969.
这导致公众持有的债务占GDP的比例下降，从1960年的45.6%下降到1969年的29.3%。
Debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP fell to its lowest point in the post war era in 1974 at 23.9%.
公众持有的债务占GDP的比例在1974年降至战后最低点23.9%。
Between 1974 and the end of the decade, it fluctuated slightly and ended the decade at 25.6% of GDP.
从 1974 年到该十年末，它略有波动，该十年结束时占 GDP 的 25.6%。
After thirty years of near constant decline, debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP rose continuously during the 1980s and into the 1990s.
经过三十年近乎持续下降后，公众持有的债务占 GDP 的比例在 20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代持续上升。
28 Rapid increases in defense spending combined with significant tax cuts enacted in response to recession led to unprecedented increases in the debt during peacetime.
28 国防开支的快速增加，加上为应对经济衰退而实施的大幅减税，导致和平时期债务空前增加。
During this period, policy choices led to higher levels of defense spending, while both policy choices and economic conditions resulted in lower revenue levels.
在此期间，政策选择导致国防支出水平上升，而政策选择和经济状况则导致收入水平下降。
Defense spending rose from 4.9% of GDP in 1977 to peak at 6.2% in 1986.
国防开支占GDP的比重从1977年的4.9%上升到1986年的峰值6.2%。
Between 1982 to 1989, annual defense spending remained around 6% of GDP.
1982年至1989年间，年度国防开支保持在GDP的6%左右。
29 Receipts fell from 19.0% of GDP in 1980 to 17.3% of GDP in 1984 before rising to 18.4% of GDP in 1989.
29 收入占 GDP 的比重从 1980 年的 19.0% 下降到 1984 年的 17.3%，然后在 1989 年上升到 GDP 的 18.4%。
30
30
In addition to the policy choices that resulted in higher levels of spending, economic factors also contributed to the rise in debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP.
除了导致支出水平上升的政策选择外，经济因素也导致公众持有的债务占国内生产总值的比例上升。
During the late 1970s and early 1980s, inflation played a major role in revenue collection as a result of a phenomenon known as bracket creep.
在 20 世纪 70 年代末和 80 年代初，通货膨胀在收入征收中发挥了重要作用，这是一种被称为“等级蠕变”的现象。
Because tax brackets were not indexed for inflation, households moved into higher tax brackets as inflation-adjusted incomes rose, even though their real dollar income had not increased.
由于税级没有根据通货膨胀指数化，随着通货膨胀调整后的收入增加，家庭进入了更高的税级，尽管他们的实际美元收入没有增加。
In other words, if incomes increased solely as a result of inflation, households may have found themselves paying higher marginal tax rates.
换句话说，如果收入增加仅仅是通货膨胀的结果，家庭可能会发现自己支付更高的边际税率。
In 1981, Congress passed the Economic Recovery Tax Act ( P.L.
1981 年，国会通过了《经济复苏税法》(P.L.
97-34 ), which systematically eliminated this long-term problem for parts of the tax system.
97-34），系统地消除了部分税收制度的这一长期问题。
31 During times of high inflation before the 1981 act, bracket creep played a significant role in deficit reduction by increasing receipts solely as a result of the structure of the tax code.
31 在 1981 年法案出台之前的高通胀时期，税级蠕变在减少赤字方面发挥了重要作用，仅由于税法结构而增加了收入。
As inflation began to fall in the early 1980s, the country also experienced two recessions, a relatively mild one in 1980 and a more severe one between 1981 and 1982, the deepest and longest in the post-WWII period to that point.
随着通货膨胀在 20 世纪 80 年代初开始下降，该国也经历了两次衰退，一次是 1980 年相对温和的一次，一次是 1981 年至 1982 年期间更为严重的一次，这是二战后时期迄今为止最严重、持续时间最长的一次。
32 High interest rates were largely seen as the cause of the economic downturn.
32 高利率在很大程度上被视为经济衰退的原因。
Increases in government spending were enacted during this period to stimulate the economy in an attempt to create growth and incite a recovery.
在此期间增加政府支出以刺激经济，试图创造增长并刺激复苏。
33 As the country continued to borrow to finance these budget deficits, higher interest costs resulted in higher outlays for net interest payments, which rose from 1.9% of GDP in 1980 to 3.1% of GDP in 1989.
33 由于该国继续借债来弥补预算赤字，较高的利息成本导致净利息支出增加，从 1980 年占 GDP 的 1.9% 上升到 1989 年占 GDP 的 3.1%。
As a result of spending increases, high interest rates, and recessions, the deficit in 1983 reached its highest level as a percentage of GDP since 1946.
由于支出增加、高利率和经济衰退，1983 年赤字占 GDP 的比例达到 1946 年以来的最高水平。
CBO standardized data can be used to assess the contribution of policy changes and economic conditions on the increases in the deficit.
CBO 标准化数据可用于评估政策变化和经济状况对赤字增加的贡献。
Table 1 shows the impact of these effects on receipts, outlays, and the budget deficit between FY1980 and 1983.
表 1 显示了这些影响对 1980 财年至 1983 财年的收入、支出和预算赤字的影响。
The majority of the effect on both outlays and the overall deficit can be attributed to policy changes, rather than economic conditions, despite the adverse effects of the recessions.
尽管经济衰退带来了不利影响，但支出和总体赤字的大部分影响可归因于政策变化，而不是经济状况。
Source : CRS calculations based on Congressional Budget Office data.
资料来源：CRS 根据国会预算办公室数据计算。
U.S. Congress, Congressional Budget Office, The Cyclically Adjusted and Standardized Budget Measures , October 2008, Table 3.
美国国会，国会预算办公室，周期性调整和标准化预算措施，2008 年 10 月，表 3。
Note : Numbers may not add due to rounding.
注：由于四舍五入，数字可能不会相加。
Economic indicators include the effects of the business cycle and inflation on the budget.
经济指标包括商业周期和通货膨胀对预算的影响。
CBO calculates these measures using potential GDP, the level of output that corresponds to high levels of labor and capital use, because it excludes effects of the business cycle.
CBO 使用潜在 GDP（对应于高水平劳动力和资本使用的产出水平）来计算这些指标，因为它排除了商业周期的影响。
As Table 1 shows, outlays due to policy changes increased more than twice as much during this period compared to actual outlays.
如表 1 所示，这一时期因政策变化而导致的支出比实际支出增加了一倍多。
As a percentage of potential GDP, actually outlays increased by 0.7%, while standardized outlays increased by 1.6%.
实际支出占潜在 GDP 的百分比增长了 0.7%，标准化支出增长了 1.6%。
The increase in actual outlays was lower than the increase in standardized outlays because of falling inflation.
由于通货膨胀下降，实际支出的增幅低于标准化支出的增幅。
Economic conditions contributed more to the fall in revenues during this period than policy changes, 1.3% of potential GDP versus 1.0%.
在此期间，经济状况对收入下降的影响大于政策变化，分别占潜在 GDP 的 1.3% 和 1.0%。
Overall, the actual deficit increased by 3.0% of potential GDP, with policy changes accounting for 2.6%.
总体而言，实际赤字占潜在GDP的3.0%，其中政策变化占2.6%。
In other words, nearly 90% of the increase in the deficit can be attributed to policy changes.
换句话说，赤字增加近90%可归因于政策变化。
As the budget deficit of 1983 reached the highest level since WWII, Congress and the President began consideration of and enacted several deficit reduction measures over the next few years.
由于1983年的预算赤字达到二战以来的最高水平，国会和总统开始考虑并在接下来的几年内颁布了多项削减赤字的措施。
One of the most well known was the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985 (also known as the Balanced Budget Act or Gramm-Rudman-Hollings, Title II of P.L.
其中最著名的法案之一是 1985 年的《平衡预算和紧急赤字控制法案》（也称为《平衡预算法案》或 Gramm-Rudman-Hollings，《P.L.》第二章）。
99 - 177 ).
99 - 177）。
The law attempted to eliminate the deficit by the early 1990s through a process of sequestration, or automatic spending cuts if Congress and the President failed to enact legislation achieving this result.
该法律试图在 20 世纪 90 年代初通过自动减支程序消除赤字，如果国会和总统未能颁布立法来实现这一结果，则自动削减开支。
Under sequestration, spending would be automatically cut or cancelled if the estimated deficit exceeded the amount allowed under the act.
在自动减支下，如果估计赤字超过该法案允许的金额，支出将自动削减或取消。
34 However, the primary goal of the Balanced Budget Act, to eliminate the deficit by 1990, was unsuccessful.
34 然而，《平衡预算法》的主要目标——到 1990 年消除赤字——并未成功。
Debt held by the public continued to rise for most of the next decade.
在接下来十年的大部分时间里，公众持有的债务持续增加。
The decade of the 1990s was marked by two distinct periods.
20 世纪 90 年代有两个不同的时期。
The first half included tax increases and a recession, while significant budget surpluses and a strong economy distinguished the later years.
上半年包括税收增加和经济衰退，而后几年则出现了巨额预算盈余和强劲的经济。
Additional deficit reduction measures were enacted in the early part of the 1990s, built upon the efforts of the 1980s.
在 20 世纪 80 年代努力的基础上，20 世纪 90 年代初颁布了额外的赤字削减措施。
35 A strong economy, low unemployment, and other factors also helped to reduce deficits.
35 强劲的经济、低失业率和其他因素也有助于减少赤字。
During the 1990s, spending cuts, revenue increases, and strong GDP growth, combined with a strong economy and budget process reforms, all contributed to the reductions in the debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP seen at the end of the decade.
20 世纪 90 年代，支出削减、收入增加和 GDP 强劲增长，再加上强劲的经济和预算流程改革，都有助于减少 90 年代末公众持有的债务占 GDP 的比例。
As a result, beginning in 1998 there were four consecutive years of surpluses, the first period of back-to-back surpluses in four decades.
结果，从1998年开始，连续四年实现顺差，这是四十年来首次出现连续顺差。
Debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP declined for four successive years for the first time in two decades due to decreases in spending, increases in receipts, strong GDP growth, and the resulting economic interactions throughout this period.
由于支出减少、收入增加、GDP强劲增长以及整个时期产生的经济互动，公众持有的债务占GDP的比例连续四年下降，这是二十年来的首次。
36
36
The Budget Enforcement Act of 1990 (BEA, P.L.
1990 年预算执行法 (BEA, P.L.
101-508 ) replaced the existing sequestration process under Gramm-Rudman-Hollings with a new process involving deficit targets, discretionary spending limits, and "pay-as-you-go" requirements.
101-508）用涉及赤字目标、可自由支配支出限额和“现收现付”要求的新流程取代了 Gramm-Rudman-Hollings 下的现有自动减支流程。
37 However, meeting deficit reduction targets would have required massive cuts to key mandatory and discretionary programs.
37 然而，要实现赤字削减目标，就需要大幅削减关键的强制性和自由裁量计划。
38 As a result, the budget resolution for FY1991 ( H.Con.Res.
38 因此，1991 财年的预算决议（H.Con.Res.
310 ) agreed to by Congress set deficit reduction at 47% of the BEA target with one-third of the savings coming from revenue increases.
310）经国会同意，将赤字削减幅度定为 BEA 目标的 47%，其中三分之一的节省来自收入增加。
As Congress and the President renewed efforts aimed at deficit reduction, tax increases were enacted.
随着国会和总统重新努力削减赤字，增税措施开始实施。
Despite the effort to reduce the deficit though tax increases, receipts fell from 18.0% of GDP in 1990 to 17.6% in 1993 largely as a result of the economic slowdown.
尽管通过增税努力减少赤字，但收入占GDP的比例从1990年的18.0%下降到1993年的17.6%，这主要是由于经济放缓。
Though tax receipts declined in the early 1990s, spending in certain categories also fell.
尽管 20 世纪 90 年代初税收收入有所下降，但某些类别的支出也有所下降。
Following the disarmament agreement signed by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev in late 1987 and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, defense spending declined.
1987年底罗纳德·里根和米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫签署裁军协议以及1989年柏林墙倒塌后，国防开支下降。
In 1990, the United States spent 5.2% of GDP on defense.
1990年，美国国防开支占GDP的5.2%。
By 1999, that number fell to 3.0%.
到 1999 年，这个数字下降到 3.0%。
39 This decline in defense spending helped to contribute to the budget surpluses and lower debt as a percentage of GDP seen at the end of the decade.
39 国防支出的下降有助于增加预算盈余并降低债务占本世纪末 GDP 的百分比。
However each year between 1990 and 1993, debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP increased, rising from 42.1% to 49.3%.
然而，从1990年到1993年，公众持有的债务占GDP的比例逐年上升，从42.1%上升到49.3%。
Between 1994 and 1999, GDP growth ranged from 3% to 5% annually, in real terms.
1994年至1999年间，GDP实际增长率为每年3%至5%。
Due to this strong growth and in combination with the tax increases in the Omnibus Budget and Reconciliation Act of 1993 ( P.L.
由于这种强劲的增长，并结合 1993 年综合预算和调节法案 (P.L.
103 - 66 ), receipts increased from 17.5% of GDP in 1993 to 19.8% of GDP in 1999.
103 - 66），收入占GDP的比重从1993年的17.5%增加到1999年的19.8%。
40 Low rates of unemployment also helped boost the level of receipts as more people had jobs and income, which generated tax revenue.
40 低失业率也有助于提高收入水平，因为更多的人拥有工作和收入，从而产生税收。
Reliance on certain government programs fell, further decreasing spending.
对某些政府计划的依赖下降，进一步减少了支出。
As a result, between 1994 and 1999, debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP fell nearly 10 percentage points from 49.2% to 39.4%.
结果，1994年至1999年间，公众持有的债务占GDP的比例下降了近10个百分点，从49.2%下降到39.4%。
41
41
The budget surpluses that occurred during this decade surprised many budget analysts.
这十年间出现的预算盈余令许多预算分析师感到惊讶。
As late as September 1997, CBO projected budget deficits into FY1998 and beyond.
直到 1997 年 9 月，国会预算办公室才预测 1998 财年及以后的预算赤字。
The President's budget proposal for FY1998 also predicted a deficit.
总统的 1998 财年预算提案也预测出现赤字。
However, strong economic conditions led to a surprising and unexpected rise in revenues.
然而，强劲的经济状况导致收入出现令人惊讶和意外的增长。
Combined with a decrease in spending relative to GDP due to legislatively enforced spending cuts and strong economic growth, the annual budget deficits expected from FY1998 through FY2001 became surpluses.
再加上由于立法强制削减支出和强劲的经济增长导致支出相对于 GDP 的下降，预计从 1998 财年到 2001 财年的年度预算赤字变成了盈余。
The budget surpluses not only helped shrink the size of the national debt as revenues exceeded outlays but also reduced interest payments as a result of decreased levels of borrowing.
预算盈余不仅有助于缩小国债规模（因为收入超过支出），而且还因借贷水平下降而减少利息支付。
In 1999, interest spending fell to 2.5% of GDP, the lowest rate in eighteen years.
1999年，利息支出占GDP的比例降至2.5%，为十八年来的最低水平。
The years of budget surpluses and declining debt, between 1998 and 2001, were replaced by budget deficits and rising debt levels after 2001.
1998年至2001年期间的预算盈余和债务下降被2001年后的预算赤字和债务水平上升所取代。
Tax cuts and increases in defense and certain entitlement spending, including Medicare Part D, have been the largest contributors to this turn-around.
减税和增加国防开支以及某些福利支出（包括医疗保险 D 部分）是这一转变的最大贡献者。
In 2000, debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP was 34.7% of GDP and fell further in 2001 to 32.5% of GDP.
2000年，公众持有的债务占GDP的比例为34.7%，2001年进一步下降至32.5%。
Since that time, debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP has been rising.
自那时以来，公众持有的债务占国内生产总值的比例一直在上升。
Debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP rose to 37.5% in 2005 and declined slightly in 2006 (37.1%) and 2007 (36.8%).
2005年，公众持有的债务占GDP的比例上升至37.5%，并在2006年（37.1%）和2007年（36.8%）略有下降。
In 2001 and 2003, tax cuts were passed which caused receipts to fall as a percentage of GDP.
2001年和2003年，减税政策获得通过，导致收入占GDP的比例下降。
In 2000, before the tax cuts were enacted, receipts totaled 20.6% of GDP.
2000年，减税实施之前，财政收入占GDP的20.6%。
By 2004, receipts fell over 4 percentage points to 16.1% of GDP, their lowest level since 1951.
到 2004 年，收入占 GDP 的比重下降了 4 个百分点以上，降至 16.1%，为 1951 年以来的最低水平。
Receipts have been rising since that time to reach 18.5% of GDP in 2007.
自那时以来，收入一直在上升，2007 年达到 GDP 的 18.5%。
At the same time, federal spending rose from 18.2% of GDP in 2000 to 19.6% of GDP in 2007.
与此同时，联邦支出占GDP的比重从2000年的18.2%上升到2007年的19.6%。
43 The economy also showed signs of weakness.
43 经济也显示出疲软迹象。
Annual GDP growth averaged 2.6% between 2000 and 2007, down from 3.6% during the surplus years of 1998 to 2001.
2000年至2007年间，国内生产总值年均增长率为2.6%，低于1998年至2001年盈余年份的3.6%。
Declining revenue and increased federal spending led the country from its peak surplus as a percentage of GDP in FY2000 to deficit.
收入下降和联邦支出增加导致该国从 2000 财年盈余占 GDP 的比例达到峰值，转为赤字。
The FY2004 deficit was the largest of the FY2000 to FY2007 period.
2004 财年的赤字是2000 财年至2007 财年期间最大的。
Using CBO's standardized budget data to separate out the effects of the economy and policy changes on the surpluses/deficits, Table 2 shows that policy changes between FY2000 and FY2004 had a larger impact on the budget balance than did the economy.
使用CBO的标准化预算数据来区分经济和政策变化对盈余/赤字的影响，表2显示2000财年至2004财年的政策变化对预算平衡的影响比对经济的影响更大。
Note : Numbers may not add due to rounding.
注：由于四舍五入，数字可能不会相加。
Economic indicators include the effects of the business cycle and inflation on the budget.
经济指标包括商业周期和通货膨胀对预算的影响。
CBO calculates these measures using potential GDP, the level of output that corresponds to high levels of labor and capital use, because it excludes effects of the business cycle.
CBO 使用潜在 GDP（对应于高水平劳动力和资本使用的产出水平）来计算这些指标，因为它排除了商业周期的影响。
Policy changes accounted for the majority of the changes in both revenues, outlays, and the overall budget deficit between 2000 and 2004.
2000 年至 2004 年间，政策变化是收入、支出和总体预算赤字变化的主要原因。
As a percentage of potential GDP, revenues fell by 5.3 percentage points during the period, with policy changes accounting for 2.9 percentage points and economic conditions accounting for the remainder.
收入占潜在GDP的百分比在此期间下降了5.3个百分点，其中政策变化占2.9个百分点，经济状况占其余部分。
Outlays fell 0.8 percentage points, with policy changes totaling 0.5 percentage points.
支出下降 0.8 个百分点，其中政策变化总计 0.5 个百分点。
The actual budget balance declined by 6.1 percentage points, from a surplus of 2.5% of potential GDP in 2000 to a deficit of 3.6% of potential GDP in 2004.
实际预算余额下降了6.1个百分点，从2000年占潜在GDP的2.5%的顺差下降到2004年占潜在GDP的3.6%的赤字。
Policy changes were responsible for 3.4 percentage points of this change, or roughly 60% of the total change, as a percentage of potential GDP.
政策变化导致了这一变化的 3.4 个百分点，或者按占潜在 GDP 的百分比计算，约占总变化的 60%。
Discussion surrounding the increases in debt during this period focused on expenditures in Iraq, Afghanistan, and other anti-terrorism measures, and deteriorating economic conditions.
这一时期围绕债务增加的讨论主要集中在伊拉克、阿富汗和其他反恐措施的支出以及不断恶化的经济状况上。
Though defense spending has grown as a percentage of GDP since 2000, it remains lower than the average share of GDP devoted to this spending since 1962.
尽管自 2000 年以来国防支出占 GDP 的比例有所增长，但仍低于 1962 年以来国防支出占 GDP 的平均比例。
It is generally assumed that expenditures related to these programs will continue at some rate into the future leaving the level of related long-term defense spending and its impact on the federal debt somewhat uncertain.
人们普遍认为，与这些计划相关的支出将在未来以某种速度持续下去，从而使相关的长期国防支出水平及其对联邦债务的影响有些不确定。
In addition to these increases in defense spending, the largest mandatory spending programs have grown significantly during the last decade.
除了国防支出的增加之外，过去十年中最大的强制性支出计划也大幅增长。
In 2000, spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security equaled 7.3% of GDP.
2000年，医疗保险、医疗补助和社会保障支出占GDP的7.3%。
In 2007, this number rose to 8.2% of GDP representing nearly a one percentage point increase in just seven years.
2007年，这一数字上升至GDP的8.2%，仅七年时间就增加了近一个百分点。
44 The long-term consequences on future debt as a result of these mandatory programs may also be great cause for concern as the population ages.
44 随着人口老龄化，这些强制性计划对未来债务的长期影响也可能令人担忧。
Recent actions to stabilize the financial markets and respond to economic weakness led to significant increases in federal debt levels.
最近稳定金融市场和应对经济疲软的行动导致联邦债务水平大幅上升。
Major legislation enacted in 2008 and 2009 in response to these events included the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (HERA; P.L.
2008 年和 2009 年针对这些事件颁布的主要立法包括 2008 年住房和经济复苏法案 (HERA; P.L.
110-289 ) and the resulting federal conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the creation of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA; Division A of P.L.
110-289）以及由此产生的房利美和房地美联邦监管，以及 2008 年紧急经济稳定法案（EESA；P.L. A 部）中问题资产救助计划 (TARP) 的创建。
110-343 ), and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA; P.L.
110-343 ）和《美国复苏与再投资法案》（ARRA；P.L.
111-5 ), as well as numerous smaller actions.
111-5），以及许多较小的行动。
Government agencies, like the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, used existing statutory powers to provide additional stability.
美联储和联邦存款保险公司等政府机构利用现有的法定权力来提供额外的稳定性。
45 Spending in existing government programs, such as unemployment insurance and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, also increased as a result of the economic downturn.
45 由于经济衰退，失业保险和补充营养援助计划等现有政府计划的支出也有所增加。
The legislation enacted during this period either increased spending, reduced revenues, or both, leading to changes in debt held by the public.
在此期间颁布的立法要么增加支出，要么减少收入，或两者兼而有之，导致公众持有的债务发生变化。
The recession, which began in December 2007, also led to increases in spending and reductions in revenue levels.
2007 年 12 月开始的经济衰退也导致支出增加和收入水平下降。
Between 2007 and 2009, debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP rose from 36.2% of GDP to 53.0% of GDP.
2007年至2009年间，公众持有的债务占GDP的比例从36.2%上升至53.0%。
It is expected to rise further in 2010, to 61.6% of GDP.
预计2010年将进一步上升，达到GDP的61.6%。
46 These increases in debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP are projected to remain an issue barring future policy changes.
46 除非未来政策发生变化，预计公众持有的债务占 GDP 百分比的增加仍将是一个问题。
As a result of legislative actions, the debt held by the public increased significantly between 2008 and 2009.
由于立法行动，公众持有的债务在 2008 年至 2009 年间大幅增加。
Due to the uncertainty surrounding the effects of the government's financial market interventions on the economy, it is difficult to fully disaggregate the effects of factors other than the business cycle (i.e., short lived fluctuations in income and outlays) in order to calculate the impact of recent policy on the budget.
由于政府金融市场干预对经济影响的不确定性，很难完全分解商业周期以外的因素（即收入和支出的短暂波动）的影响，以计算近期政策对预算的影响。
The effects of the economic downturn on the budget are easier to determine and are shown in Table 3 .
经济衰退对预算的影响更容易确定，如表 3 所示。
47 Between 2007 and 2009, the effects of the business cycle resulted in an increase in the deficit of 1.8 percentage points relative to what the deficit would have been had the economy been performing at full capacity.
47 2007 年至 2009 年间，商业周期的影响导致赤字相对于经济满负荷运行时的赤字增加了 1.8 个百分点。
Notes: Numbers may not add due to rounding.
注：由于四舍五入，数字可能不会相加。
Economic indicators include the effects of the business cycle and inflation on the budget.
经济指标包括商业周期和通货膨胀对预算的影响。
CBO calculates these measures using potential GDP, the level of output that corresponds to high levels of labor and capital use, because it excludes effects of the business cycle.
CBO 使用潜在 GDP（对应于高水平劳动力和资本使用的产出水平）来计算这些指标，因为它排除了商业周期的影响。
The actual budget balance declined by 8.2 percentage points, from 1.2% of potential GDP in 2007 to 9.3% of potential GDP in 2009.
实际预算余额下降了8.2个百分点，从2007年占潜在GDP的1.2%下降到2009年占潜在GDP的9.3%。
The economy was responsible for 2.1 percentage points of this change.
经济因素对这一变化负有 2.1 个百分点的责任。
In general, economic changes in the budget deficit, which are caused by the business cycle, are likely to prove temporary rather than long lasting.
一般来说，由商业周期引起的预算赤字的经济变化可能是暂时的，而不是长期持续的。
The effect on the federal debt, however, may persist into the future as interest is paid on the borrowing to finance the deficit continues even after the downturn is over.
然而，对联邦债务的影响可能会持续到未来，因为即使在经济低迷结束后，为赤字融资而支付的借款利息也会持续存在。
Because of the unprecedented nature of the federal government's actions during the financial crisis, the ultimate effect on the federal debt is hard to determine.
由于联邦政府在金融危机期间采取的行动具有史无前例的性质，因此对联邦债务的最终影响很难确定。
Though debt held by the public usually tracks the increases in the budget deficit, the accounting methods used to record certain expenditures in the federal budget are different from the actual level of borrowing that the government incurred.
尽管公众持有的债务通常追踪预算赤字的增长，但用于记录联邦预算中某些支出的会计方法与政府实际借款水平不同。
For example, asset purchases made under TARP authority are expected to have some value in the future and are expected to be sold by the government.
例如，根据问题资产救助计划授权进行的资产购买预计在未来具有一定价值，并预计将由政府出售。
As stipulated by EESA, accounting for the budgetary impact of TARP must be conducted under procedures outlined in the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990, with an adjustment for market risk.
根据 EESA 的规定，TARP 的预算影响必须根据 1990 年联邦信贷改革法案中概述的程序进行核算，并根据市场风险进行调整。
In other words, for budgetary accounting purposes, CBO calculates the subsidy costs for the TARP program by subtracting the purchase cost from the estimated market value of the acquired assets, discounted at a rate reflecting market risk.
换句话说，出于预算会计目的，国会预算办公室通过从所购资产的估计市场价值中减去购买成本来计算 TARP 计划的补贴成本，并按反映市场风险的利率贴现。
This results in increases in debt held by the public in the amount of the asset purchase, while increases in the budget deficit equal the subsidy cost.
这导致公众持有的债务在资产购买金额中增加，而预算赤字的增加等于补贴成本。
Once the asset is sold, the public debt will fall by the sale price, but that year's budget deficit would not be affected.
一旦资产出售，公共债务将按出售价格下降，但当年的预算赤字不会受到影响。
Calculations made by CBO and OMB of the costs for both TARP and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac assistance differ.
国会预算办公室和管理预算办公室对问题资产救助计划以及房利美和房地美援助成本的计算有所不同。
While both CBO and OMB have recorded TARP purchases in the budget on a subsidy basis, their estimates of the cost differ.
虽然 CBO 和 OMB 都在预算中以补贴方式记录了问题资产救助计划的采购，但他们对成本的估计不同。
Over the 2009-2019 period, CBO estimates the net present value of TARP outlays at $109 billion, while OMB puts the estimate at $127 billion.
在 2009 年至 2019 年期间，CBO 估计 TARP 支出的净现值为 1090 亿美元，而 OMB 的估计为 1270 亿美元。
48 As of April 2010, actual outlays as a result of TARP, or increases in the debt held by the public, total $381.8 billion.
48 截至 2010 年 4 月，问题资产救助计划 (TARP) 造成的实际支出或公众持有债务的增加总计 3,818 亿美元。
Differences in the accounting for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are more significant.
房利美和房地美的会计处理差异更为显着。
CBO believes that the conservatorship of these entities means that they should be considered part of the government and therefore reflected in the federal budget.
国会预算办公室认为，对这些实体的监管意味着它们应被视为政府的一部分，因此应反映在联邦预算中。
CBO began recording these costs on a net cash flow basis.
国会预算办公室开始以净现金流量为基础记录这些成本。
OMB, however, records only the cash outlays made to these entities without accounting for market risk.
然而，OMB 仅记录向这些实体支付的现金支出，而不考虑市场风险。
CBO recorded a subsidy cost of $291 billion in 2009, which does not correspond to the change in the debt held by the public.
CBO 记录的 2009 年补贴成本为 2910 亿美元，这与公众持有债务的变化并不相符。
OMB recorded $95.6 billion in cash outlays and an analogous increase in debt held by the public of the same amount in 2009.
2009 年，OMB 记录了 956 亿美元的现金支出，公众持有的债务也有类似的增长。
OMB estimates an additional $65 billion in cash outlays over the 2010-2019 period.
OMB 预计 2010 年至 2019 年期间将额外增加 650 亿美元的现金支出。
49
49
Changes in the gross debt do not always track closely with budget surpluses or deficits because gross debt includes debt held by the public and intragovernmental debt.
总债务的变化并不总是与预算盈余或赤字密切相关，因为总债务包括公共债务和政府内部债务。
Intragovernmental debt is the amount owed by the federal government to other federal agencies, to be paid by the Department of the Treasury.
政府内债务是联邦政府欠其他联邦机构的金额，由财政部支付。
Intragovernmental debt, required by law to be held in the form of Treasury securities, consists, in large part, of money contained in trust funds.
法律要求以国债形式持有的政府内债务大部分由信托基金中的资金组成。
The largest of these trust funds include the Social Security, Medicare, and the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Trust Funds.
其中最大的信托基金包括社会保障、医疗保险以及公务员退休和残疾信托基金。
50
50
Why is it important to examine this measure of debt?
为什么检查这种债务衡量标准很重要？
When the trust funds run surpluses, they receive IOUs in the form of Treasury securities, as required by law.
当信托基金有盈余时，它们会根据法律要求以国债形式收到欠条。
These surplus funds are then used to finance other government spending.
这些盈余资金随后用于资助其他政府支出。
In 1983, major reforms to the Social Security program were recommended by the Greenspan Commission to stave off impending Trust Fund insolvency.
1983 年，格林斯潘委员会建议对社会保障计划进行重大改革，以避免信托基金即将破产。
These reforms led to increases in payroll tax collections, among other changes.
除其他变化外，这些改革导致工资税征收增加。
51 Since these changes were made, the level of surplus in the Social Security Trust Fund has been rising and the Treasury has been borrowing from it to finance other types of spending, thereby increasing intragovernmental debt.
51自这些变化发生以来，社会保障信托基金的盈余水平一直在上升，财政部一直从中借款来资助其他类型的支出，从而增加了政府内债务。
In 1982, intragovernmental debt as a percentage of GDP reached its lowest level, at 6.6% of GDP.
1982年，政府内债务占GDP的比例达到最低水平，为GDP的6.6%。
Since that time, intragovernmental debt has been rising and totaled 30.4% of GDP in 2009.
自那时以来，政府内债务一直在上升，2009 年总计占 GDP 的 30.4%。
Increases in gross debt as a percentage of GDP as a result of intragovernmental debt are a significant concern over the long run.
从长远来看，政府内部债务导致的总债务占国内生产总值的百分比增加是一个重大问题。
When the trust funds begin to owe more in benefits than what they collect in payroll taxes, they will eventually begin to redeem Treasury securities in order to pay the benefits owed.
当信托基金所欠的福利开始多于其收取的工资税时，它们最终将开始赎回国债以支付所欠的福利。
52 This will result in additional strains on the budget as money from general revenues will be needed to fund these benefits or Treasury will have to borrow additional debt from the public.
52 这将导致预算面临额外压力，因为需要来自一般收入的资金来为这些福利提供资金，否则财政部将不得不向公众借入额外债务。
In addition, the funds from the trust fund surpluses currently being used by the government to fund other programs will no longer be available, putting strain on the funding for these programs.
此外，政府目前用于资助其他项目的信托基金盈余资金将不再可用，从而给这些项目的资金带来压力。
Over the long-term, high levels of debt can have a significant impact on future federal spending and revenue decisions and the economy.
从长远来看，高水平的债务可能会对未来的联邦支出和收入决策以及经济产生重大影响。
In order to keep high debt levels from causing substantial harm to the economy, spending cuts, tax increases, or both, will be necessary.
为了防止高债务水平对经济造成重大损害，削减支出、增加税收或两者兼而有之。
High interest rates, lower rates of domestic investment, and a larger trade deficit could also affect the economy if debt levels remain elevated.
如果债务水平持续高企，高利率、较低的国内投资率和更大的贸易逆差也可能影响经济。
Long terms projections of debt held by the public show it rising from 53.0% of GDP in 2009 to 90% of GDP by 2020 under the President's FY2011 budget.
对公众持有债务的长期预测显示，根据总统 2011 财年预算，到 2020 年，公众持有债务占 GDP 的比例将从 2009 年的 53.0% 上升至 90%。
By 2035 this level could rise to 185% of GDP, under certain policy conditions – a level which would likely have severe effects on the economy.
在某些政策条件下，到 2035 年，这一水平可能升至 GDP 的 185% — — 这一水平可能会对经济产生严重影响。
53
53
CBO calculates a measure called the fiscal gap in order to quantify the reductions in spending and revenues necessary to maintain the same level of debt at the end of a given period as at the beginning.
国会预算办公室计算了一项称为财政缺口的指标，以量化在特定时期结束时维持与开始时相同的债务水平所需的支出和收入的减少。
Under current policy, significant increases in debt held by the public are projected, largely due to increased spending for certain mandatory programs.
根据现行政策，预计公众持有的债务将大幅增加，这主要是由于某些强制性计划的支出增加。
In June 2010, CBO projected that a permanent and immediate combination of spending cuts and revenue increases amounting to 6.9% of GDP will be necessary in order to maintain the present level of debt (as a percentage of GDP) 50 years from now.
2010 年 6 月，国会预算办公室预测，为了在 50 年后维持目前的债务水平（占 GDP 的百分比），需要立即永久性地削减支出并增加收入，使其占 GDP 的 6.9%。
54 This amount is significant because outlays and revenues have each historically amounted to about 20% of GDP.
54 这个数额很大，因为支出和收入历来均占 GDP 的 20% 左右。
Enacting this change amounts to roughly a one-third cut in spending or a one-third increase in revenue collection or some combination of spending cuts and tax increases in order to maintain the current debt to GDP ratio.
实施这一变化大约相当于削减三分之一的支出或增加三分之一的收入，或削减支出和增加税收的某种组合，以维持当前的债务与 GDP 的比率。
If prompt actions are not taken, the magnitude of changes required in the future would be greater.
如果不立即采取行动，未来所需的变革幅度将会更大。
In addition to the impact on federal spending and revenue collection, high levels of debt could also reduce domestic investment.
除了对联邦支出和税收的影响外，高债务水平还可能减少国内投资。
When the economy is weak, deficit spending (and analogous increases in federal debt levels) may be used to stimulate demand and raise output.
当经济疲软时，赤字支出（以及联邦债务水平的类似增加）可以用来刺激需求和提高产出。
Eventually, however, as the economy recovers and credit markets tighten, high levels of federal government borrowing can push up interest rates.
然而，最终，随着经济复苏和信贷市场收紧，联邦政府的高水平借贷可能会推高利率。
High interest rates on government borrowing will also affect interest rates on private investment since movements between the two are linked.
政府借款的高利率也会影响私人投资的利率，因为两者之间的变动是相互关联的。
Interest rates that are elevated increase the costs of financing new investment in plant and equipment and may cause businesses to shift away from investment and towards consumption.
利率上升会增加工厂和设备新投资的融资成本，并可能导致企业从投资转向消费。
Lower levels of investment may ultimately diminish economic output in the long run.
从长远来看，较低的投资水平最终可能会减少经济产出。
Over the longer run, as the amount of foreign holdings of U.S. assets increases, a greater share of U.S. income will flow abroad in the form of interest, dividend, and rent payments.
从长远来看，随着外国持有美国资产数量的增加，美国收入的更大一部分将以利息、股息和租金支付的形式流向国外。
While this outflow does not necessarily mean a decline in U.S. living standards, it may mean that future living standards will not be as high as they would have been if a greater share of domestic investment had been financed by borrowing at home instead of abroad.
虽然这种资金外流并不一定意味着美国生活水平的下降，但这可能意味着未来的生活水平将不会像如果更大比例的国内投资是通过国内借款而不是国外借款融资时那样高。
The higher interest rates may also have an effect on the trade balance.
较高的利率也可能对贸易平衡产生影响。
55 Because of the increased domestic borrowing associated with the rising federal debt, firms that sell a significant share of their production abroad and those that compete directly with foreign firms selling in the United States, experience a drop in the demand for their goods and services.
55由于联邦债务增加导致国内借款增加，将大部分产品出售到国外的公司以及与在美国销售产品的外国公司直接竞争的公司，其商品和服务的需求下降。
This is due to the effect of higher interest rates on dollar-denominated assets, which eventually lead to an increased demand for dollars and a higher price of the dollar relative to other currencies, other things being equal.
这是由于利率上升对美元计价资产的影响，最终导致美元需求增加，在其他条件相同的情况下，美元相对于其他货币的价格更高。
Higher interest rates make dollar-denominated assets more attractive to foreign investors due to the relatively high rates of return.
由于相对较高的回报率，较高的利率使美元计价的资产对外国投资者更具吸引力。
Foreign investors, in order to buy the higher yielding U.S. securities, must first buy dollars with which to pay for them, thereby pushing up the price of the dollar in terms of other currencies.
外国投资者为了购买收益率较高的美国证券，必须首先购买美元来支付，从而推高美元相对于其他货币的价格。
The resulting increase in the exchange value of the dollar has two mutually reinforcing effects on the trade deficit.
由此产生的美元汇率上升对贸易逆差有两个相互加强的影响。
First, the relative price of imports falls because it takes fewer dollars to bring the same quantity of goods and services into the U.S. from abroad.
首先，进口的相对价格下降，因为从国外将相同数量的商品和服务引入美国所需的美元更少。
Lower prices for imported goods means, other things being equal, that U.S. consumers buy more goods and services produced abroad.
在其他条件相同的情况下，进口商品价格下降意味着美国消费者会购买更多国外生产的商品和服务。
This results in an increase in imports.
这导致进口增加。
Second, the relative price of U.S.-produced goods and services rises for foreigners because the amount of foreign currency required to buy a given quantity of U.S. exports rises.
其次，对于外国人来说，美国生产的商品和服务的相对价格上涨，因为购买一定数量的美国出口产品所需的外汇数量增加。
Because U.S. exports are more expensive, they tend to decline.
由于美国的出口价格更高，因此往往会下降。
In other words, as imports increase and exports decline, the trade deficit becomes larger.
换句话说，随着进口增加而出口下降，贸易逆差就会变大。
Annual policy decisions on spending and revenue affect debt levels.
关于支出和收入的年度政策决定会影响债务水平。
Spending and revenues are also influenced by economic growth and GDP.
支出和收入也受到经济增长和国内生产总值的影响。
As it has over the past decades, the United States will continue to face fiscal challenges.
与过去几十年一样，美国将继续面临财政挑战。
Balancing the budget and controlling the growth of debt would require less spending, increases in revenue collections, faster than average economic growth, or a combination of these things.
平衡预算和控制债务增长需要减少支出、增加收入、快于平均经济增长，或者这些因素的结合。
Taking no action to reduce the projected growth in the debt may potentially lead to insolvency at some time in the future.
如果不采取行动减少预计的债务增长，可能会在未来某个时候导致破产。
The United States is not the only country whose central government has issued a significant amount of debt.
美国并不是唯一一个中央政府发行大量债务的国家。
As the figures in Table A -1 indicate, the United States is far from having the largest government debt.
正如表A -1 中的数字所示，美国远非政府债务规模最大的国家。
Of the countries shown, seven had a higher gross debt-to-GDP ratio in 2009 than the United States.
在所显示的国家中，有 7 个国家 2009 年的总债务与 GDP 之比高于美国。
However, high debt levels are already causing problems.
然而，高债务水平已经造成了问题。
Several of the countries shown in Table A -1 are facing significant debt crises which either led to significant increases in government debt or can be attributed, in part, to high levels of government debt.
表A -1 所示的一些国家正面临严重的债务危机，这些危机要么导致政府债务大幅增加，要么部分归因于政府债务水平较高。
Iceland's banking system collapsed as a result of the global financial crisis.
全球金融危机导致冰岛银行体系崩溃。
As a result, the country's Treasury was forced to intervene to stabilize the banking sector.
结果，该国财政部被迫进行干预以稳定银行业。
In Greece, large levels of external debt and attempts to obscure true deficit figures created concern over whether or not Greece would be able to borrow sufficient funds to cover maturing debt and interest payments in 2010.
在希腊，巨额外债和掩盖真实赤字数据的做法引发了人们对希腊是否能够借到足够资金来支付 2010 年到期债务和利息的担忧。
This led to negative shifts in investor confidence and concerns that the crisis may spread to other European countries and the U.S. given the highly integrated nature of the world's financial system.
鉴于世界金融体系的高度一体化性质，这导致投资者信心发生负面变化，并担心危机可能蔓延到其他欧洲国家和美国。
56
56
Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, OECD Economic Outlook , No. 86, November 2009, Annex Table 32.
资料来源：经济合作与发展组织，经合组织经济展望，第 86 期，2009 年 11 月，附件表 32。
Note: Gross debt data are not always comparable across countries due to different definitions or treatment of debt components.—indicates that data was not available.
注：由于债务组成部分的定义或处理方式不同，各国的总债务数据并不总是具有可比性。—表示无法获得数据。
See Source table for additional notes.
有关附加说明，请参阅源表。
Source: Office of Management and Budget, FY20 11 Historical Tables , Tables 1.2, 7.1, and 10.1.
资料来源：管理和预算办公室，2020 财年 11 历史表格，表 1.2、7.1 和 10.1。
Budget surpluses and deficits are measured in three ways: on-budget, off-budget, and unified.
预算盈余和赤字以三种方式衡量：预算内、预算外和统一。
The unified surplus or deficit is the sum of the on-budget and off-budget surpluses or deficits.
统一盈余或赤字是预算内和预算外盈余或赤字的总和。
On-budget surpluses and deficits compose the majority of gross federal debt.
预算内盈余和赤字构成联邦总债务的大部分。
The two Social Security Trust Funds (OASI and DI) and the Postal Service are off-budget and are part of intragovernmental debt.
两个社会保障信托基金（OASI 和 DI）和邮政服务不在预算内，属于政府内债务的一部分。
The Department of the Treasury also provides daily and monthly reports on debt levels, available at http://fms.treas.gov/ .
财政部还提供债务水平每日和月度报告，可在 http://fms.treas.gov/ 上获取。
For the purposes of this report, the fiscal year data reported by the Office of Management and Budget will be discussed unless otherwise noted.
就本报告而言，除非另有说明，否则将讨论管理和预算办公室报告的财政年度数据。
In FY2009, debt held by the public increased by $1,742 billion, while the budget deficit was $1,413 billion.
2009财年，公众持有的债务增加了17,420亿美元，而预算赤字为14,130亿美元。
The difference was due to the accounting methodology used to record certain new programs in the federal budget.
差异是由于联邦预算中记录某些新项目所使用的会计方法造成的。
See the section titled " Federal Financial Interventions and Economic Stimulus " later in this report for further explanation.
请参阅本报告后面标题为“联邦金融干预和经济刺激”的部分以获取进一步说明。
In the early years of the country, debt was accrued largely to finance the expenses of wars, smaller skirmishes, and the Louisiana Purchase.
在该国建国初期，债务主要是为了支付战争、小规模冲突和路易斯安那购买案的费用。
Despite nearly paying off gross debt in several fiscal years in the 1830s and 1840s, rapid increases in gross debt levels occurred for the first time in the early 1860s as a result of the Civil War.
尽管在 1830 年代和 1840 年代的几个财政年度几乎还清了总债务，但由于内战，总债务水平在 1860 年代初期首次出现快速上升。
In nominal terms, debt rose from $90.6 million in 1861 to nearly $2.7 billion by 1865 and marked a new era in government borrowing at that time as debt equaled more than one-half of national income.
按名义价值计算，债务从 1861 年的 9060 万美元增加到 1865 年的近 27 亿美元，标志着当时政府借贷的新时代，因为债务相当于国民收入的一半以上。
This debt was issued as needed, with interest rates and maturity periods set by legislation.
该债务是根据需要发行的，利率和到期期限由立法规定。
Paul Studenski and Herman E.
保罗·斯图登斯基和赫尔曼·E.
Krooss, Financial History of the United States: Fiscal, Monetary, Banking, Tariff, including Financial Administration and State and Local Finance , 2 nd ed.
克罗斯，《美国金融史：财政、货币、银行、关税，包括金融管理以及州和地方金融》，第二版。
(New York: McGraw-Hill, 1963), pp.
（纽约：McGraw-Hill，1963 年），第 14 页。
100, 116, 125, 152.
100、116、125、152。
U.S. Executive Office of the President, Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 20 11 , Historical Tables , February 2010, Table 7.1.
美国总统行政办公室，管理和预算办公室，美国政府预算，20 11 财年，历史表格，2010 年 2 月，表 7.1。
For a more detailed discussion, see CRS Report RL33074, Mandatory Spending Since 1962 , by [author name scrubbed] and [author name scrubbed].
有关更详细的讨论，请参阅 CRS 报告 RL33074，《自 1962 年以来的强制支出》，作者：[作者姓名已擦洗] 和 [作者姓名已擦洗]。
For a more detailed discussion, see CRS Report RL34424, Trends in Discretionary Spending , by [author name scrubbed] and [author name scrubbed].
有关更详细的讨论，请参阅 CRS 报告 RL34424，可自由支配支出的趋势，作者：[作者姓名已删除] 和 [作者姓名已删除]。
U.S. Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update , August 2010, Table 1-1 and The Long-Term Budget Outlook , June 2010, Figure 1-2.
美国国会预算办公室，《预算和经济展望：更新》，2010 年 8 月，表 1-1 和《长期预算展望》，2010 年 6 月，图 1-2。
The Congressional Budget Office eliminates the effects of both business cycle adjustments and short-lived economic fluctuations in the standardized budget figures.
国会预算办公室在标准化预算数字中消除了商业周期调整和短期经济波动的影响。
Short-lived fluctuations could include changes in capital gains realizations, the effects of changes in inflation on interest payments on the federal debt, and timing changes in federal payments and receipts.
短期波动可能包括资本收益实现的变化、通货膨胀变化对联邦债务利息支付的影响以及联邦收支的时间变化。
These budget estimates are measured as a percentage of potential GDP which quantifies the level of output corresponding to a high level of capital and labor use and therefore do not precisely match the historical budget figures.
这些预算估计数以潜在国内生产总值的百分比来衡量，它量化了与高水平资本和劳动力使用相对应的产出水平，因此与历史预算数字并不完全匹配。
For more information, see CRS Report R40767, How Treasury Issues Debt , by [author name scrubbed].
欲了解更多信息，请参阅 CRS 报告 R40767，财政部如何发行债务，作者：[作者姓名已删除]。
Along with economic growth, interest owed on prior borrowings also plays a role in the growth of the debt.
随着经济增长，先前借款所欠利息也在债务增长中发挥作用。
Even if the United States stopped accumulating debt today, the interest payments on the debt currently held will continue until the debt is repaid.
即使美国今天停止积累债务，目前持有的债务的利息支付也将继续，直到债务偿还为止。
Although subject to congressional oversight, the Federal Reserve is independent and under no legal obligation to ensure the sale of government securities.
尽管受到国会监督，但美联储是独立的，没有法律义务确保政府证券的销售。
By law (Section 14(b) of the Federal Reserve Act), the Federal Reserve can only buy Treasury securities in the open market.
根据法律（《联邦储备法》第 14(b) 条），美联储只能在公开市场购买国债。
It cannot buy them directly from the Treasury.
它不能直接从财政部购买它们。
Should it decide to do so, the threat is no longer one of government insolvency, but rather of inflation.
如果它决定这样做，威胁就不再是政府破产，而是通货膨胀。
For more information on the role of the Federal Reserve in the securities market and open market operations, see CRS Report RL30354, Monetary Policy and the Federal Reserve: Current Policy and Conditions , by [author name scrubbed].
有关美联储在证券市场和公开市场操作中的作用的更多信息，请参阅 CRS 报告 RL30354，货币政策和美联储：当前政策和条件，作者：[作者姓名已删除]。
For more information, see CRS Report RL31056, Economics of Federal Reserve Independence , by [author name scrubbed].
欲了解更多信息，请参阅 CRS 报告 RL31056，《美联储独立的经济学》，作者：[作者姓名已删除]。
For more information, see CRS Report RL32747, The Economic Implications of the Long-Term Federal Budget Outlook , by [author name scrubbed].
欲了解更多信息，请参阅 CRS 报告 RL32747，《长期联邦预算展望的经济影响》，作者：[作者姓名已删除]。
Debt held by the public nearly equaled or surpassed GDP between 1945 and 1947.
1945 年至 1947 年间，公众持有的债务几乎等于或超过 GDP。
Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the U.S. Government , Fiscal Year 2011 , Historical Tables volume, Tables 1.2, 6.1, and 7.1.
管理和预算办公室，美国政府预算，2011 财年，历史表格卷，表 1.2、6.1 和 7.1。
Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the U.S. Government , Fiscal Year 2011 , Historical Tables volume, Table 10.1.
管理和预算办公室，美国政府预算，2011 财年，历史表格卷，表 10.1。
Between 1941 and 2009, GDP grew at an average annual rate of 3.5%, so the growth rate experienced during the 1960s was noticeably higher than average.
1941年至2009年间，GDP年均增长率为3.5%，因此20世纪60年代的增长率明显高于平均水平。
CRS calculations based on Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the U.S. Government , Fiscal Year 2011 , Historical Tables volume, Table 10.1.
CRS 计算基于管理和预算办公室、美国政府预算、2011 财年、历史表格卷、表 10.1。
Since its implementation, Medicare has been expanded several times to include additional categories of people (e.g., disabled) and benefits (e.g., prescription drugs).
自实施以来，医疗保险已多次扩展，以涵盖其他类别的人员（例如残疾人）和福利（例如处方药）。
The same law which established Medicare also created Medicaid, which combined several existing welfare programs into one benefit for the poor.
建立医疗保险的同一法律还创建了医疗补助，它将几个现有的福利计划合并为一项针对穷人的福利。
For more information, see CRS Report R40425, Medicare Primer , coordinated by [author name scrubbed].
如需了解更多信息，请参阅 CRS 报告 R40425，Medicare Primer，由 [作者姓名已删除] 协调。
These entitlements have had a greater impact on spending levels and the debt in recent times.
近年来，这些权利对支出水平和债务产生了更大的影响。
In FY2009, Medicare and Medicaid consumed 36% of total mandatory spending and Social Security (OASDI) accounted for 32%.
2009财年，医疗保险和医疗补助占强制性支出总额的36%，社会保障（OASDI）占32%。
Overall, mandatory spending consumed 60% of total government outlays and 15% of GDP.
总体而言，强制性支出消耗了政府总支出的60%和GDP的15%。
This means that over the last 40 years, the portion of mandatory spending devoted to Medicare and Medicaid has increased by nearly 30 percentage points, while Social Security's portion has fallen by 20 percentage points.
这意味着在过去40年中，用于医疗保险和医疗补助的强制性支出比例增加了近30个百分点，而社会保障的比例则下降了20个百分点。
Total federal spending on mandatory outlays as a percentage of GDP nearly tripled over the same period.
同期，强制性支出的联邦总支出占 GDP 的百分比几乎增加了两倍。
U.S. Congress, Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update , August 2010, p.
美国国会，国会预算办公室，《预算和经济展望：更新》，2010 年 8 月，第 14 页。
20.
20.
Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the U.S. Government , Fiscal Year 2011 , Historical Tables volume, Table 6.1.
管理和预算办公室，美国政府预算，2011 财年，历史表格卷，表 6.1。
CRS Report RL31176, Financing Issues and Economic Effects of American Wars , by [author name scrubbed] and [author name scrubbed].
CRS 报告 RL31176，《美国战争的融资问题和经济影响》，作者：[作者姓名已删除] 和 [作者姓名已删除]。
Between 1950 to 1980, debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP rose in the following years: 1950, 1954, 1958, 1968, 1971, 1975, 1976, 1977, and 1980.
1950年至1980年间，公众持有的债务占GDP的比例在以下年份上升：1950年、1954年、1958年、1968年、1971年、1975年、1976年、1977年和1980年。
In only two of these years was the increase greater than 1 percentage point (1.4 percentage points between 1974 and 1975 and 2.2 percentage points between 1975 and 1976).
其中只有两年增幅超过1个百分点（1974年至1975年期间为1.4个百分点，1975年至1976年期间为2.2个百分点）。
Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the U.S. Government , Fiscal Year 2011 , Historical Tables volume, Table 7.1.
管理和预算办公室，美国政府预算，2011 财年，历史表格卷，表 7.1。
Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the U.S. Government , Fiscal Year 2011 , Historical Tables volume, Table 8.4.
管理和预算办公室，美国政府预算，2011 财年，历史表格卷，表 8.4。
Receipts hit their lowest level during this period in 1984 at 17.3% of GDP.
1984 年，收入达到这一时期的最低水平，占 GDP 的 17.3%。
Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the U.S. Government , Fiscal Year 2011 , Historical Tables volume, Table 1.2.
管理和预算办公室，美国政府预算，2011 财年，历史表格卷，表 1.2。
The provisions of the act with regard to bracket creep became effective beginning in 1985.
该法案有关支架蠕变的规定于 1985 年开始生效。
U.S. Department of the Treasury, Office of Tax Analysis, Revenue Effects of Major Tax Bills , OTA Working Paper 81, December 1981.
美国财政部税务分析办公室，主要税单的收入影响，OTA 工作文件 81，1981 年 12 月。
However, real bracket creep still exists due to long-term trends of rising real income.
然而，由于实际收入上升的长期趋势，实际阶层蠕变仍然存在。
National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions .
国家经济研究局，美国经济周期的扩张和收缩。
U.S. Congress, Congressional Budget Office, The Outlook for Economic Recovery: A Report to the Senate and House Committees on the Budget - Part I , February 1983, p.
美国国会，国会预算办公室，《经济复苏前景：向参议院和众议院委员会提交的预算报告 - 第一部分》，1983 年 2 月，第 14 页。
9.
9.
This law was renewed and significantly modified in 1990 and 1997.
该法于 1990 年和 1997 年进行了更新和重大修改。
For more information, see CRS Report 98-721, Introduction to the Federal Budget Process , by [author name scrubbed].
如需了解更多信息，请参阅 CRS 报告 98-721，《联邦预算流程简介》，作者：[作者姓名已删除]。
For more information, see CRS Report RS22098, Deficit Impact of Reconciliation Legislation Enacted in 1990, 1993, 1997, and 2006 , by [author name scrubbed].
如需了解更多信息，请参阅 CRS 报告 RS22098，《1990 年、1993 年、1997 年和 2006 年颁布的调节立法的赤字影响》，作者：[作者姓名已删除]。
In the 1990s, debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP declined during deficit years because GDP grew faster than the debt itself thereby decreasing the ratio.
在 20 世纪 90 年代，公众持有的债务占 GDP 的百分比在赤字年份下降，因为 GDP 增长快于债务本身，从而降低了该比率。
Because of this, declines in the debt-to-GDP ratio are more common historically than budget surpluses.
因此，从历史上看，债务与国内生产总值比率的下降比预算盈余更为常见。
For more information, see CRS Report RL34300, Pay-As-You-Go Procedures for Budget Enforcement , by [author name scrubbed].
如需了解更多信息，请参阅 CRS 报告 RL34300，《预算执行的现收现付程序》，作者：[作者姓名已删除]。
On August 20, 1990, CBO issued initial sequestration reports for FY1991 which estimated the FY1991 deficit at $165.2 billion, $101.2 billion over the deficit target issued in the BEA.
1990 年 8 月 20 日，国会预算办公室发布了 1991 财年的初步自动减支报告，估计 1991 财年赤字为 1,652 亿美元，比 BEA 发布的赤字目标高出 1,012 亿美元。
Outlays for defense programs would have had to be cut by $50.6 billion (entailing uniform reductions of 41.8%) and outlays for nondefense programs would also have had to be cut by $50.6 billion (entailing $2.1 billion in cuts for programs with automatic spending increases or programs covered by special rules, and $48.5 billion in uniform reductions of 38.0%).
国防项目支出必须削减 506 亿美元（统一削减 41.8%），非国防项目支出也必须削减 506 亿美元（自动支出增加项目或特殊规则涵盖的项目削减 21 亿美元，统一削减 38.0% 485 亿美元）。
The report from CBO was only advisory and the numbers differed slightly from those reported by OMB and ultimately transmitted to Congress.
国会预算办公室的报告只是建议性的，数字与 OMB 报告并最终转交给国会的数字略有不同。
Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the U.S. Government , Fiscal Year 2011 , Historical Tables volume, Table 8.4.
管理和预算办公室，美国政府预算，2011 财年，历史表格卷，表 8.4。
Receipts reached their peak during this period in 1998 at 19.9% of GDP.
1998 年这一时期的收入达到顶峰，占 GDP 的 19.9%。
Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the U.S. Government , Fiscal Year 2011 , Historical Tables volume, Table 1.2.
管理和预算办公室，美国政府预算，2011 财年，历史表格卷，表 1.2。
This section will discuss the debt situation between 2000 and 2007.
本节将讨论 2000 年至 2007 年间的债务状况。
The next section will discuss the recent recession and its implications on the federal debt.
下一节将讨论最近的经济衰退及其对联邦债务的影响。
Medicare Part D, created by P.L.
Medicare D 部分，由 P.L. 创建
108-173 on January 1, 2006, has contributed to some of this increase.
2006 年 1 月 1 日颁布的第 108-173 号法律对这一增长做出了部分贡献。
In calendar year (CY) 2007, Part D expenditures amounted to 0.37% of GDP.
2007 历年（CY），D 部分支出占 GDP 的 0.37%。
Total Medicare expenditures rose from 2.28% of GDP in CY2000 to 3.18% of GDP in CY2007.
医疗保险总支出从 2000 年占 GDP 的 2.28% 上升到 2007 年占 GDP 的 3.18%。
Therefore, between 2000 and 2007, total Medicare expenditures rose 0.90% of GDP, with the creation of Part D accounting for approximately one-third of this increase.
因此，2000 年至 2007 年间，医疗保险总支出占 GDP 增长了 0.90%，其中 D 部分的创建约占增量的三分之一。
Medicare contributed nearly all of the total increase in spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid between 2000 and 2007.
2000 年至 2007 年间，医疗保险几乎贡献了社会保障、医疗保险和医疗补助支出总增长的全部。
For data on Medicare expenditures, see U.S. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, 2008 Annual Report of the Boards of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Funds, available at http://www.cms.hhs.gov/reportstrustfunds/downloads/tr2008.pdf .
有关医疗保险支出的数据，请参阅美国医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心的《联邦医院保险和联邦补充医疗保险信托基金董事会 2008 年年度报告》，网址为：http://www.cms.hhs.gov/reportstrustfunds/downloads/tr2008.pdf。
For more information see CRS Report R41073, Government Interventions in Response to Financial Turmoil , by [author name scrubbed] and [author name scrubbed].
欲了解更多信息，请参阅 CRS 报告 R41073，《政府针对金融动荡的干预措施》，作者：[作者姓名已删除] 和 [作者姓名已删除]。
U.S. Congress, Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update , August 2010, Table 1-1.
美国国会，国会预算办公室，《预算和经济展望：更新》，2010 年 8 月，表 1-1。
For more information, see U.S. Congress, Congressional Budget Office, Measuring the Effects of Automatic Stabilizers on the Federal Budget , May 2010.
如需了解更多信息，请参阅美国国会，国会预算办公室，衡量自动稳定器对联邦预算的影响，2010 年 5 月。
U.S. Congress, Congressional Budget Office, Report on the Troubled Asset Relief Program—March 2010 , March 2010, Table 1.
美国国会，国会预算办公室，《问题资产救助计划报告》——2010 年 3 月，2010 年 3 月，表 1。
At the end of the fiscal year, CBO uses the figures recorded by OMB for budgetary purposes.
在财政年度结束时，国会预算办公室将 OMB 记录的数据用于预算目的。
For more information on these accounting methodologies, see U.S. Congress, Congressional Budget Office, CBO 's Budgetary Treatment of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , January 2010, available at http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/108xx/doc10878/01-13-FannieFreddie.pdf and U.S. Office of Management and Budget, The Budget for Fiscal Year 2011 , Analytical Perspectives , pp.
有关这些会计方法的更多信息，请参阅美国国会、国会预算办公室、CBO 的《房利美和房地美预算处理》，2010 年 1 月，网址为 http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/108xx/doc10878/01-13-FannieFreddie.pdf 以及美国管理和预算办公室，《2011 财年预算》，分析观点，页。
346-358, available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2011/assets/topics.pdf .
346-358，可访问 http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2011/assets/topics.pdf 。
Balances in the trust funds are equal to the amount of tax paid (e.g., payroll taxes) that exceed programmatic benefits paid.
信托基金的余额等于所缴纳的税款（例如工资税）超过所支付的计划福利的金额。
U.S. Social Security Administration, Report of the National Commission on Social Security Reform , available at http://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/gspan.html .
美国社会保障管理局，国家社会保障改革委员会的报告，可参见http://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/gspan.html。
Starting this fiscal year, however, Social Security will likely operate with a cash flow deficit (i.e., income excluding interest will be less than outlays).
然而，从本财年开始，社会保障可能会出现现金流赤字（即扣除利息的收入将低于支出）。
CBO projects that Social Security will operate with cash flow deficits in FY2010 through FY2013 and again in FY2016 through FY2020.
国会预算办公室预计，社会保障在 2010 财年至 2013 财年以及 2016 财年至 2020 财年将出现现金流赤字。
When Social Security operates with a cash flow deficit, the program cashes in more federal government securities than the amount of current Social Security tax revenues.
当社会保障在现金流赤字的情况下运作时，该计划兑现的联邦政府证券将多于当前社会保障税收收入。
When total trust fund income (income including interest) is taken into account, CBO projects that Social Security will have a surplus in each fiscal year from 2010 to 2020.
当考虑到信托基金总收入（包括利息的收入）时，国会预算办公室预计社会保障在 2010 年至 2020 年每个财政年度都将出现盈余。
For more information, see CRS Report R41188, Social Security: Recent Trust Fund Projections by the Board of Trustees and CBO , by [author name scrubbed].
如需了解更多信息，请参阅 CRS 报告 R41188，《社会保障：董事会和 CBO 近期信托基金预测》，作者：[作者姓名已删除]。
U.S. Congress, Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook , June 2010, Table 1-2 and An Analysis of the President's Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2011 , March 2010, Table 1-1.
美国国会，国会预算办公室，《长期预算展望》，2010 年 6 月，表 1-2 以及《总统 2011 财年预算提案分析》，2010 年 3 月，表 1-1。
U.S. Congress, Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook , June 2010, Table 1-3.
美国国会，国会预算办公室，长期预算展望，2010 年 6 月，表 1-3。
The trade deficit can increase with through a rise in imports, a drop in exports, or both.
贸易逆差可能会因进口增加、出口下降或两者兼而有之而增加。
For more information on these crises, see CRS Report RS22988, Iceland's Financial Crisis , by [author name scrubbed], CRS Report R41167, Greece's Debt Crisis: Overview, Policy Responses, and Implications , coordinated by [author name scrubbed], CRS Report R40415, The Financial Crisis: Impact on and Response by The European Union , by [author name scrubbed], and CRS Report R41239, Frequently Asked Questions about IMF Involvement in the Eurozone Debt Crisis , coordinated by [author name scrubbed].
有关这些危机的更多信息，请参阅 CRS 报告 RS22988，冰岛的金融危机，作者为[作者姓名已删除]，CRS 报告 R41167，希腊债务危机：概述、政策应对和影响，由[作者姓名已删除]协调，CRS 报告 R40415，金融危机：欧盟的影响和响应，作者为[作者姓名已删除]，以及 CRS 报告R41239，有关国际货币基金组织参与欧元区债务危机的常见问题，由[作者姓名已删除]协调。