Deficit Financing, the Debt, and Modern Monetary Theory

赤字融资、债务和现代货币理论

2011-2019 · Congressional Research Service (public domain) · 原文

Explaining persistently low interest rates despite large deficits and rising debt has been one of the central challenges of macroeconomists since the end of the Great Recession.

自大衰退结束以来，如何解释尽管赤字巨额和债务不断上升，但利率持续偏低一直是宏观经济学家面临的主要挑战之一。

This dynamic has led to increasing attention to Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), presented as an alternative to the mainstream macroeconomic way of thinking, in some fiscal policy discussions.

这种动态导致人们越来越关注现代货币理论（MMT），在一些财政政策讨论中，现代货币理论被视为主流宏观经济思维方式的替代方案。

Such discussions are at times restricted by a difficulty, expressed by policymakers and economists alike, in understanding MMT’s core principles and how they inform MMT’s views on fiscal policy.

政策制定者和经济学家都表示，此类讨论有时会受到理解 MMT 核心原则以及这些原则如何影响 MMT 对财政政策观点的困难的限制。

MMT suggests that deficit financing can be used without harmful economic effects in circumstances of low inflation rates and low interest rates, conditions that currently exist despite indications that the country is at full employment.

现代货币理论认为，在低通胀率和低利率的情况下，使用赤字融资不会产生有害的经济影响，尽管有迹象表明该国已实现充分就业，但目前这种情况仍然存在。

This report surveys the available MMT literature in order to provide a basic understanding of the differences (or lack thereof) between the defining relationships established in MMT and mainstream economics.

本报告调查了现有的现代货币理论文献，以便对现代货币理论与主流经济学所建立的定义关系之间的差异（或缺乏）提供基本的了解。

It then explores how such distinctions may inform policy prescriptions for addressing short- and long-run economic issues, including approaches to federal deficit outcomes and debt management.

然后探讨这些区别如何为解决短期和长期经济问题的政策处方提供信息，包括联邦赤字结果和债务管理的方法。

Included in this analysis are observations of how policy recommendations from MMT and mainstream economics align with current U.S. economic and governance systems.

该分析包括对现代货币理论和主流经济学的政策建议如何与当前美国经济和治理体系保持一致的观察。

In mainstream macroeconomic models, the asset market is characterized by the sensitivity of investment to interest rates, a determinant of investment returns.

在主流宏观经济模型中，资产市场的特点是投资对利率的敏感性，利率是投资回报的决定因素。

Money is typically defined as cash and close substitutes, and used for transactions and held as an asset.

货币通常被定义为现金和相近替代品，用于交易并作为资产持有。

In the short run, the capital stock (equipment and other factors of production outside of labor) is assumed to be fixed, and output is dictated by the employment level.

在短期内，假设资本存量（设备和劳动力之外的其他生产要素）是固定的，产出由就业水平决定。

Fiscal and monetary policy decisions can be used to expand or contract the short-run economy (with distinct effects for each), and those decisions help to inform growth, the stock of capital and labor, and other decisions in the long run.

财政和货币政策决策可用于扩张或收缩短期经济（每种决策都有不同的影响），这些决策有助于为增长、资本和劳动力存量以及其他长期决策提供信息。

In general, expansionary fiscal policies, including stimulus policies and other programs that increase net deficits and debt, are thought to be helpful when addressing negative shocks in demand, but they may crowd out private investment and reduce long-term growth if used when the economy is otherwise in balance.

总体而言，扩张性财政政策，包括刺激政策和其他增加净赤字和债务的计划，被认为有助于应对需求的负面冲击，但如果在经济处于平衡状态时使用，可能会挤出私人投资并降低长期增长。

Persistent increases in real debt (which occurs when the stock of debt grows more quickly than the economy) are viewed as unsustainable, as they would eventually lead to a lack of real resources to borrow against.

实际债务的持续增加（当债务存量增长快于经济增长时就会发生）被认为是不可持续的，因为它们最终会导致缺乏实际资源来借款。

Though some MMT adherents have disputed the notion that the model can be viewed through the basic macroeconomic framework, efforts to do so reveal a few key distinctions.

尽管一些现代货币理论的追随者对可以通过基本宏观经济框架来看待该模型的观点提出了异议，但这样做的努力揭示了一些关键区别。

In the MMT model of short-run behavior, investment decisions are insensitive to interest rates, and are instead a function of current consumption levels.

在短期行为的 MMT 模型中，投资决策对利率不敏感，而是当前消费水平的函数。

MMT holds a much broader view of money, asserting that monetary value can be created by financial institutions in a way that renders monetary policy ineffective in dealing with short-run economic fluctuations.

现代货币理论对货币持有更广泛的看法，认为金融机构可以通过某种方式创造货币价值，从而使货币政策在应对短期经济波动时无效。

MMT supporters therefore prefer a larger fiscal policy role in managing business cycles than mainstream economists, generally claiming that fiscal borrowing constraints are less imposing than mainstream economists believe in countries with a sovereign currency, and call for direct money financing of fiscal policy actions by the central bank.

因此，现代货币理论的支持者比主流经济学家更倾向于财政政策在管理商业周期中发挥更大的作用，他们普遍声称，在拥有主权货币的国家中，财政借贷限制没有主流经济学家所认为的那么严格，并呼吁央行为财政政策行动提供直接货币融资。

The translation of the MMT approach to long-run output is unclear, though a jobs guarantee supported by MMT adherents would likely change the nature of the relationship between employment and output levels.

尽管现代货币理论追随者支持的就业保障可能会改变就业与产出水平之间关系的性质，但现代货币理论方法对长期产出的转化尚不清楚。

Full alignment with the economic and political system supported by MMT would likely involve a dramatic shift in the roles and powers of U.S. fiscal institutions.

与现代货币理论支持的经济和政治体系的全面协调可能会涉及美国财政机构的角色和权力的巨大转变。

Adopting an MMT framework would involve much more fiscal policy to account for a reduced monetary policy role.

采用现代货币理论框架将涉及更多的财政政策，以应对货币政策作用的减弱。

Policymakers would also likely need to execute fiscal policy decisions more quickly than has been done in the past in assuming an increased role in economic management.

政策制定者可能还需要比过去更快地执行财政政策决策，以在经济管理中发挥更大的作用。

Projections of future debt growth due to spending pressures from social programs have led to a current concern about deficit financing, recognizing the institutional challenges in conducting tax and spending fiscal policy.

由于社会计划的支出压力而对未来债务增长的预测导致了当前对赤字融资的担忧，认识到执行税收和支出财政政策的制度挑战。

MMT is largely focused on short-run management of the economy, with tax and spending policies aimed at maintaining a fully employed economy without inflation.

现代货币理论主要侧重于经济的短期管理，其税收和支出政策旨在维持充分就业的经济而不出现通货膨胀。

The MMT approach appears to implicitly assume that a high level of debt will not be problematic because it can be financed cheaply by maintaining low interest rates.

现代货币理论方法似乎隐含地假设高水平的债务不会出现问题，因为可以通过维持低利率来廉价地融资。

Underlying this policy is the assumption that Congress can act quickly to counteract deficit-driven inflation with tax increases or spending cuts that would allow the economy to maintain low interest rates on public debt.

这一政策的基础是这样的假设：国会可以迅速采取行动，通过增税或削减支出来抵消赤字驱动的通货膨胀，从而使经济保持公共债务的低利率。

Explaining persistently low interest rates despite large deficits and rising debt has been one of the central challenges of macroeconomists since the end of the Great Recession.

自大衰退结束以来，如何解释尽管赤字巨额和债务不断上升，但利率持续偏低一直是宏观经济学家面临的主要挑战之一。

This dynamic has led to increasing attention to Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), presented as an alternative to the mainstream macroeconomic way of thinking, in some fiscal policy discussions.

这种动态导致人们越来越关注现代货币理论（MMT），在一些财政政策讨论中，现代货币理论被视为主流宏观经济思维方式的替代方案。

Such discussions are at times restricted by a difficulty, expressed by policymakers and economists alike, in understanding MMT's core principles and how they inform MMT's views on fiscal policy.

政策制定者和经济学家都表示，此类讨论有时会受到理解现代货币理论核心原则以及这些原则如何影响现代货币理论财政政策观点的困难的限制。

本报告调查了现有的现代货币理论文献，以便对现代货币理论与主流经济学所建立的定义关系之间的差异（或缺乏）提供基本的了解。

It then explores how such distinctions may inform policy prescriptions for addressing short- and long-run economic issues, including approaches to federal deficit outcomes and debt management.

然后探讨这些区别如何为解决短期和长期经济问题的政策处方提供信息，包括联邦赤字结果和债务管理的方法。

Included in this analysis are observations of how policy recommendations from MMT and mainstream economics align with current U.S. economic and governance systems.

该分析包括对现代货币理论和主流经济学的政策建议如何与当前美国经济和治理体系保持一致的观察。

In mainstream macroeconomic models, the asset market is characterized by the sensitivity of investment to interest rates, a determinant of investment returns.

在主流宏观经济模型中，资产市场的特点是投资对利率的敏感性，利率是投资回报的决定因素。

Money is typically defined as cash and close substitutes, and used for transactions and held as an asset.

货币通常被定义为现金和相近替代品，用于交易并作为资产持有。

In the short run, the capital stock (equipment and other factors of production outside of labor) is assumed to be fixed, and output is dictated by the employment level.

在短期内，假设资本存量（设备和劳动力之外的其他生产要素）是固定的，产出由就业水平决定。

实际债务的持续增加（当债务存量增长快于经济增长时就会发生）被认为是不可持续的，因为它们最终会导致缺乏实际资源来借款。

Though some MMT adherents have disputed the notion that the model can be viewed through the basic macroeconomic framework, efforts to do so reveal a few key distinctions.

尽管一些现代货币理论的追随者对可以通过基本宏观经济框架来看待该模型的观点提出了异议，但这样做的努力揭示了一些关键区别。

In the MMT model of short-run behavior, investment decisions are insensitive to interest rates, and are instead a function of current consumption levels.

在短期行为的 MMT 模型中，投资决策对利率不敏感，而是当前消费水平的函数。

现代货币理论对货币持有更广泛的看法，认为金融机构可以通过某种方式创造货币价值，从而使货币政策在应对短期经济波动时无效。

尽管现代货币理论追随者支持的就业保障可能会改变就业与产出水平之间关系的性质，但现代货币理论方法对长期产出的转化尚不清楚。

Full alignment with the economic and political system supported by MMT would likely involve a dramatic shift in the roles and powers of U.S. fiscal institutions.

与现代货币理论支持的经济和政治体系的全面协调可能会涉及美国财政机构的角色和权力的巨大转变。

Adopting an MMT framework would involve much more fiscal policy to account for a reduced monetary policy role.

采用现代货币理论框架将涉及更多的财政政策，以应对货币政策作用的减弱。

Policymakers would also likely need to execute fiscal policy decisions more quickly than has been done in the past in assuming an increased role in economic management.

政策制定者可能还需要比过去更快地执行财政政策决策，以在经济管理中发挥更大的作用。

由于社会计划的支出压力而对未来债务增长的预测导致了当前对赤字融资的担忧，认识到执行税收和支出财政政策的制度挑战。

MMT is largely focused on short-run management of the economy, with tax and spending policies aimed at maintaining a fully employed economy without inflation.

现代货币理论主要侧重于经济的短期管理，其税收和支出政策旨在维持充分就业的经济而不出现通货膨胀。

The MMT approach appears to implicitly assume that a high level of debt will not be problematic because it can be financed cheaply by maintaining low interest rates.

现代货币理论方法似乎隐含地假设高水平的债务不会出现问题，因为可以通过维持低利率来廉价地融资。

这一政策的基础是这样的假设：国会可以迅速采取行动，通过增税或削减支出来抵消赤字驱动的通货膨胀，从而使经济保持公共债务的低利率。

Traditional macroeconomic theory addresses two main questions.

传统宏观经济理论解决两个主要问题。

First, macroeconomic theory and policy seek to mitigate short-term economic fluctuations (or stabilize the economy) that leave productive resources idle for a time.

首先，宏观经济理论和政策寻求减轻导致生产资源暂时闲置的短期经济波动（或稳定经济）。

Second, macroeconomists seek to recommend public policies that maximize living standards (economic growth) over the long term, while keeping debt at sustainable levels.

其次，宏观经济学家寻求建议公共政策，以最大限度地提高长期生活水平（经济增长），同时将债务保持在可持续水平。

The role of monetary policy and the maintenance of a stable price level are embedded in both issues.

货币政策的作用和维持稳定的价格水平都包含在这两个问题中。

In the past few years, the U.S. economy has experienced persistently low interest rates despite near-full employment and federal deficits and debt significantly above their historical averages.

过去几年，尽管美国经济接近充分就业，而且联邦赤字和债务远高于历史平均水平，但利率却持续处于低位。

These characteristics have led to debate over the optimal trajectory of long-term federal debt in an economic environment with relatively low borrowing costs.

这些特征引发了关于在借贷成本相对较低的经济环境下长期联邦债务最佳轨迹的争论。

Recently, an economic theory outside of mainstream economic views, called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) by its proponents, has been receiving attention in the public debate.

最近，一种主流经济观点之外的经济理论，被其支持者称为现代货币理论（MMT），在公众争论中受到关注。

1 Interest in this theory may in part reflect concerns about the deficit financing needed for new spending programs in health, education, infrastructure, and other areas.

1 对这一理论的兴趣可能部分反映了对卫生、教育、基础设施和其他领域新支出计划所需的赤字融资的担忧。

This report first explains mainstream macroeconomic theory.

本报告首先对主流宏观经济理论进行了阐释。

It then surveys the available MMT literature to provide a basic understanding of the differences (or lack thereof) between the defining relationships established in MMT and mainstream economics.

然后，它调查了现有的现代货币理论文献，以提供对现代货币理论和主流经济学所建立的定义关系之间差异（或缺乏）的基本理解。

It next discusses whether MMT can be used to justify deficit financing.

接下来讨论现代货币理论是否可以用来证明赤字融资的合理性。

Finally, it discusses how existing government institutions may present barriers in adopting the prescriptions of MMT for managing the economy.

最后，它讨论了现有的政府机构在采用 MMT 的处方来管理经济时可能会遇到哪些障碍。

Unlike mainstream macroeconomic theory, where consensus has been reached on how core relationships translate into mathematical equations, there is no comparative mathematical statement of MMT.

主流宏观经济理论对于核心关系如何转化为数学方程已达成共识，而现代货币理论却没有比较性的数学表述。

Some academic economists have translated MMT into a mathematical framework, and the explanation of the differences between mainstream and MMT theory are based on those discussions.

一些学院派经济学家将MMT转化为数学框架，并基于这些讨论来解释主流理论与MMT理论之间的差异。

3 Proponents of MMT do not necessarily accept that framework, however.

3 然而，现代货币理论的支持者不一定接受该框架。

Although basic macroeconomic models vary in many ways, any macroeconomic model that allows for fiscal and monetary policy to influence the economy has three relationships in the economy that must be in balance: (1) the asset market where investment equals saving (called the IS curve ), (2) the money relationship where the supply and demand for money must equate (commonly called the LM curve ), and (3) the economy-wide relationship where aggregate demand equals aggregate supply.

尽管基本的宏观经济模型在很多方面有所不同，但任何允许财政和货币政策影响经济的宏观经济模型都必须在经济中保持三种关系的平衡：（1）投资等于储蓄的资产市场（称为IS曲线），（2）货币供给和需求必须相等的货币关系（通常称为LM曲线），以及（3）总需求等于总供给的经济范围关系。

The first two of these equations compose what is referred to as the IS-LM model .

这些方程的前两个组成了所谓的 IS-LM 模型。

These three relationships, in turn, determine output, prices, and the interest rate in the economy.

这三种关系依次决定经济中的产出、价格和利率。

4 Macroeconomic models formalize the relationship between economic variables, allowing researchers to quantify the effect of a change in one variable on the rest of the system (also called comparative statics ) and to observe how economic patterns align with model predictions.

4 宏观经济模型形式化了经济变量之间的关系，使研究人员能够量化一个变量的变化对系统其他部分的影响（也称为比较静态），并观察经济模式如何与模型预测保持一致。

The IS-LM model is characterized by a limited role of expectations of future economic conditions and sticky prices .

IS-LM模型的特点是对未来经济状况和粘性价格的预期作用有限。

5 While there are a number of different macroeconomic models, especially those that add expectations, this section uses the simplified model, which forms the core of forecasting models as well as models used by government agencies in projecting the economy.

5 虽然有许多不同的宏观经济模型，特别是那些增加了预期的模型，但本节使用简化模型，它构成了预测模型以及政府机构在预测经济时使用的模型的核心。

More sophisticated forecasting models of the economy have many equations that capture variation in types of goods, investments, and assets, but this simplified model can be used to explain the standard model and provide a foundation for interpreting MMT.

更复杂的经济预测模型有许多方程可以捕捉商品、投资和资产类型的变化，但这个简化的模型可以用来解释标准模型，并为解释现代货币理论提供基础。

Most academic research is directed toward more complex models (sometimes referred to as modern macroeconomic s ), which are discussed briefly below.

大多数学术研究都针对更复杂的模型（有时称为现代宏观经济学），下面将对此进行简要讨论。

The basic IS-LM model is useful for illustrating the differences in MMT and mainstream models.

基本 IS-LM 模型有助于说明 MMT 和主流模型的差异。

In mainstream macroeconomic models, the short run is characterized by fixed capital investment, or that the equipment and nonlabor resources available to firms are fixed.

在主流宏观经济模型中，短期的特点是固定资本投资，或者说企业可用的设备和非劳动力资源是固定的。

Output decisions are therefore a function of productivity, employment, and IS-LM outcomes.

因此，产出决策是生产力、就业和 IS-LM 结果的函数。

The IS curve begins with the recognition that output (or income) is the sum of its components: private consumption, investment, and government spending.

IS曲线首先认识到产出（或收入）是其组成部分的总和：私人消费、投资和政府支出。

For simplicity, this models a closed economy; in an open economy there would be a fourth component, net exports.

为了简单起见，这个模型是一个封闭的经济体；在开放经济中，还有第四个组成部分，即净出口。

If consumption and government spending are subtracted from output, the result is saving; thus, this relationship could be restated as savings equals investment.

如果从产出中减去消费和政府支出，结果就是储蓄；因此，这种关系可以重新表述为储蓄等于投资。

Consumption is a fraction of disposable income, which is income minus taxes.

消费是可支配收入的一部分，可支配收入是收入减去税收。

Therefore, consumption rises when disposable income rises (which occurs when income rises and/or taxes fall).

因此，当可支配收入增加时（当收入增加和/或税收下降时发生），消费就会增加。

While consumption depends on income and taxes, investment depends on the interest rate, rising when interest rates fall and declining when they rise.

消费取决于收入和税收，而投资则取决于利率，利率下降时投资增加，利率上升时投资减少。

As a result, there are a series of pairs of income levels and interest rates where this relationship is in balance, and income is higher when interest rates are lower.

因此，存在一系列收入水平和利率之间的平衡关系，当利率较低时，收入较高。

It is through this relationship that fiscal policy can be used to expand or contract the economy.

正是通过这种关系，财政政策可以用来扩张或收缩经济。

If government spending is increased, or if taxes are decreased (which increases disposable income and therefore increases consumption), demand increases.

如果政府支出增加，或者税收减少（这增加了可支配收入，从而增加了消费），需求就会增加。

The recipients of these increased amounts of income then spend a portion of that income, which leads to successive rounds of spending that are called multipliers .

这些增加的收入的接受者随后会花费该收入的一部分，这会导致连续几轮的支出，称为乘数。

Another critical relationship is that between money supply and money demand, which must be equal for markets to clear.

另一个关键关系是货币供给和货币需求之间的关系，货币供给和需求之间的关系必须相等，市场才能出清。

Money is composed of cash, including checking accounts, and its close substitutes.

货币由现金组成，包括支票账户及其近似替代品。

Holding prices constant for the moment, and with a fixed money supply, there are two uses of money.

暂时保持价格不变，并在货币供应量固定的情况下，货币有两种用途。

First, some money is needed to carry out transactions in the economy, and thus more money is demanded as income (output) increases.

首先，经济中进行交易需要一些货币，因此随着收入（产出）的增加，需要更多的货币。

Second, money is needed as a liquid form of asset holdings, and the higher the interest rate, the less money is held because it earns no interest and is exchanged for other forms of assets that earn interest.

其次，货币需要作为资产持有的流动形式，利率越高，持有的货币就越少，因为它不赚取利息，而是交换为其他形式的赚取利息的资产。

Similar to the IS curve, this relationship also creates pairs of interest rates and output levels where money supply and demand balance traces out a curve (the LM curve), this time with income higher as interest rates increase.

与 IS 曲线类似，这种关系也创建了利率和产出水平对，其中货币供求平衡描绘出一条曲线（LM 曲线），这次收入随着利率的增加而增加。

In this case, however, a fixed amount of money demand occurs when both output and interest rates are high or when both are low.

然而，在这种情况下，当产出和利率都高或都低时，就会出现固定数量的货币需求。

When interest rates are high, less money is desired as an asset and more is freed up to support a higher level of transactions (and therefore income).

当利率较高时，作为资产的资金需求会减少，而会释放出更多资金来支持更高水平的交易（以及收入）。

Where the IS and LM relationships intersect is where income and interest rates will be determined in the economy, holding prices constant.

IS 和 LM 关系的交叉点是经济中收入和利率将被确定的地方，保持价格不变。

With significant unemployment, any fiscal or monetary stimulus would be transmitted into output effects, moving the economy closer to the output achieved under full employment.

在失业率很高的情况下，任何财政或货币刺激都会转化为产出效应，使经济更接近充分就业下实现的产出。

The effects of expansionary fiscal policy in the IS-LM model are shown in Figure 1 .

IS-LM模型中扩张性财政政策的影响如图1所示。

When expansionary fiscal policy—through increased spending, decreased taxes, or some combination of the two—occurs (IS 1 to IS 2 ) and the money supply remains fixed (LM), interest rates (r) will rise (point A to point B).

当扩张性财政政策——通过增加支出、减少税收或两者的某种组合——出现时（IS 1 到 IS 2 ）并且货币供应量保持固定（LM），利率（r）将会上升（A点到B点）。

This rise occurs because when more money is needed for transactions, money held as an asset must be reduced and interest rates must be higher.

出现这种上升的原因是，当交易需要更多资金时，作为资产持有的资金必须减少，利率必须更高。

This rise in interest rates offsets some of the effects of increased income by reducing investment.

利率上升抵消了投资减少带来的部分收入增加的影响。

Thus, holding money supply fixed, increases in income (Y) that would have occurred if interest rates were fixed is now reduced as investment decreases.

因此，在保持货币供应量固定的情况下，如果利率固定的话，收入（Y）的增加现在会随着投资的减少而减少。

Notes: Interest rates (r) are measured on the y-axis, and output (Y) is measured on the x-axis.

注：利率 (r) 在 y 轴上测量，产出 (Y) 在 x 轴上测量。

The IS curve depicts the combination of interest rates and output levels consistent with the investment-savings relationship, while the LM curve shows the combination of interest rates and output levels consistent with the money supply and money demand relationship.

IS曲线描绘了符合投资-储蓄关系的利率和产出水平的组合，而LM曲线则描绘了符合货币供给和货币需求关系的利率和产出水平的组合。

The monetary policy implications in an IS-LM model are illustrated in Figure 2 .

IS-LM 模型中的货币政策含义如图 2 所示。

With expansionary monetary policy (LM 1 to LM 2 ), more money is available to support income and transactions at every interest rate (point A to point B).

通过扩张性货币政策（LM 1 至 LM 2 ），每个利率（A点至B点）都有更多资金可用于支持收入和交易。

However, that level of income is inconsistent with the level of income that balances the investment–savings (IS) relationship, and interest rates fall, leading to more investment, with some of the increased money supply used to hold more money as a liquid asset.

然而，这一收入水平与平衡投资-储蓄（IS）关系的收入水平不一致，利率下降，导致投资增加，而增加的货币供应量中的一部分用于持有更多货币作为流动资产。

That is, by interacting with the investment–savings (IS) relationship, output and interest rates fall below the amount implied by the money expansion alone.

也就是说，通过与投资-储蓄（IS）关系的相互作用，产出和利率下降到低于货币扩张本身所隐含的数额。

Output (Y) is higher than it was previously, and interest rates are lower.

产出（Y）比以前更高，利率也更低。

Thus, a monetary expansion increases output and lowers interest rates.

因此，货币扩张会增加产出并降低利率。

Notes: Interest rates (r) are measured on the y-axis, and output (Y) is measured on the x-axis.

注：利率 (r) 在 y 轴上测量，产出 (Y) 在 x 轴上测量。

IS曲线描绘了符合投资-储蓄关系的利率和产出水平的组合，而LM曲线则描绘了符合货币供给和货币需求关系的利率和产出水平的组合。

Note that while the basic model uses monetary supply as the primary monetary policy tool, due to difficulties in measuring the money supply, monetary authorities generally target interest rates when making policy choices.

需要注意的是，虽然基本模型以货币供应量作为主要货币政策工具，但由于货币供应量难以计量，货币当局在制定政策选择时一般都会以利率为目标。

Figure 3 , Figure 4 , and Figure 5 show the basic ways monetary policy can respond to a fiscal policy shift (in these examples through a contractionary fiscal policy shift) in an IS-LM model.

图 3、图 4 和图 5 显示了 IS-LM 模型中货币政策响应财政政策转变（在这些示例中通过紧缩性财政政策转变）的基本方式。

Notes: The contractionary fiscal policy (a tax increase, spending decrease, or some combination of the two) is represented with the move from IS 1 to IS 2 .

注：紧缩性财政政策（税收增加、支出减少或两者的某种组合）表现为从 IS 1 到 IS 2 的转变。

Interest rates (r) are measured on the y-axis, and output (Y) is measured on the x-axis.

利率 (r) 在 y 轴上测量，产出 (Y) 在 x 轴上测量。

IS曲线描绘了符合投资-储蓄关系的利率和产出水平的组合，而LM曲线则描绘了符合货币供给和货币需求关系的利率和产出水平的组合。

Notes: The contractionary fiscal policy (a tax increase, spending decrease, or some combination of the two) is represented with the move from IS 1 to IS 2 , and the contractionary monetary policy is represented with a move from LM 1 to LM 2 .

注：紧缩性财政政策（税收增加、支出减少或两者的某种组合）用从 IS 1 到 IS 2 的移动来表示，紧缩性货币政策用从 LM 1 到 LM 2 的移动来表示。

Interest rates (r) are measured on the y-axis, and output (Y) is measured on the x-axis.

利率 (r) 在 y 轴上测量，产出 (Y) 在 x 轴上测量。

IS曲线描绘了符合投资-储蓄关系的利率和产出水平的组合，而LM曲线则描绘了符合货币供给和货币需求关系的利率和产出水平的组合。

Notes: The contractionary fiscal policy (a tax increase, spending decrease, or some combination of the two) is represented with the move from IS 1 to IS 2 , and the expansionary monetary policy is represented with a move from LM 1 to LM 2 .

注：紧缩性财政政策（税收增加、支出减少或两者的某种组合）用从 IS 1 到 IS 2 的移动来表示，扩张性货币政策用从 LM 1 到 LM 2 的移动来表示。

Interest rates (r) are measured on the y-axis, and output (Y) is measured on the x-axis.

利率 (r) 在 y 轴上测量，产出 (Y) 在 x 轴上测量。

IS曲线描绘了符合投资-储蓄关系的利率和产出水平的组合，而LM曲线则描绘了符合货币供给和货币需求关系的利率和产出水平的组合。

The LM curve actually has a third variable, the price level.

LM曲线实际上有第三个变量，即价格水平。

The real money supply depends on the price level; if prices rise and nominal money supply is fixed, the real money supply falls.

实际货币供应量取决于物价水平；如果价格上涨而名义货币供应量固定，则实际货币供应量下降。

Thus, there is a third relationship in the system.

因此，系统中存在第三种关系。

This relationship requires an equilibrium between aggregate demand and aggregate supply (AD-AS).

这种关系需要总需求和总供给（AD-AS）之间的平衡。

In the short run, the capital stock is fixed, and the output in the economy depends on hiring unemployed labor.

在短期内，资本存量是固定的，经济产出取决于雇佣失业劳动力。

(There is also an underlying labor supply and labor demand relationship.) The effects are captured in the aggregate supply equation.

（还有潜在的劳动力供给和劳动力需求关系。）其影响体现在总供给方程中。

As prices rise, the supply of output increases and the demand decreases.

随着价格上涨，产出供应增加而需求减少。

Thus, this relationship shows an equilibrium aggregate price level and output in the economy.

因此，这种关系显示了经济中的均衡总价格水平和产出。

As shown in Figure 6 and Figure 7 , the effect of fiscal and monetary policies on output (Y) and the price level (P) is a function of aggregate supply and demand.

如图6和图7所示，财政和货币政策对产出（Y）和价格水平（P）的影响是总供给和总需求的函数。

Either a fiscal or monetary expansion will shift the aggregate demand curve toward more output at every price level.

无论是财政扩张还是货币扩张都会使总需求曲线在每个价格水平上朝更多产出方向移动。

The supply curve is relatively flat when there is significant underemployment in the economy, meaning that output can increase without affecting prices.

当经济中存在严重就业不足时，供给曲线相对平坦，这意味着产出可以在不影响价格的情况下增加。

When the economy is at full employment the supply curve is almost vertical, and a shift in the demand curve will increase prices and not output.

当经济处于充分就业状态时，供给曲线几乎是垂直的，需求曲线的变化将增加价格而不是产出。

Notes: The price level (P) is measured on the y-axis, and output (Y) is measured on the x-axis.

注：y 轴衡量价格水平 (P)，x 轴衡量产出 (Y)。

The AD curve represents the combinations of prices and output consistent with aggregate demand, while the AS curve represents the combination of prices, and output consistent with aggregate supply.

AD曲线代表与总需求一致的价格和产出的组合，而AS曲线代表与总供给一致的价格和产出的组合。

Notes: The price level (P) is measured on the y-axis, and output (Y) is measured on the x-axis.

注：y 轴衡量价格水平 (P)，x 轴衡量产出 (Y)。

The AD curve represents the combinations of prices and output consistent with aggregate demand, while the AS curve represents the combination of prices and output consistent with aggregate supply.

AD曲线代表与总需求一致的价格和产出的组合，而AS曲线代表与总供给一致的价格和产出的组合。

An increase in the price level will decrease the real money supply.

物价水平的上升将减少实际货币供应量。

If the initial stimulus were a fiscal stimulus, the real money supply would contract, at full employment, to restore the old output level, but with higher interest rates.

如果最初的刺激是财政刺激，那么在充分就业的情况下，实际货币供应量将会收缩，以恢复原来的产出水平，但利率会上升。

In effect, the fiscal stimulus would have substituted consumption or government spending for investment (referred to as crowding out ).

实际上，财政刺激将用消费或政府支出取代投资（称为挤出）。

If the stimulus were originally a monetary stimulus, the real money supply would shift back to its old position and neither the output nor its composition would change.

如果刺激最初是货币刺激，那么实际货币供应量将回到原来的位置，产出及其构成都不会改变。

Continual attempts to provide stimulus at full employment would result in a continually increasing price level and, in the case of a fiscal stimulus, continued crowding out of investment.

持续试图在充分就业的情况下提供刺激措施将导致物价水平不断上升，而在财政刺激的情况下，则会继续挤出投资。

This basic model can be expanded in many ways with increased complication and detail.

这个基本模型可以通过多种方式进行扩展，增加复杂性和细节。

As suggested above, multiple sectors, multiple types of investments, and other details can be introduced.

如上所述，可以引入多个部门、多种类型的投资以及其他细节。

One important element is to allow for an open economy, with exports and imports, foreign investment in the United States, and U.S. investment in foreign countries.

一个重要因素是允许开放的经济，包括出口和进口、外国对美国的投资以及美国对外国的投资。

Expanding the model in this way, in its simplest form, requires a new relationship, the balance of payments, which requires equal supply and demand for U.S. dollars.

以这种最简单的形式扩展该模型需要一种新的关系，即国际收支平衡，这需要美元的供需相等。

This additional relationship requires a new variable, the exchange rate.

这种附加关系需要一个新变量，即汇率。

It also requires net exports in addition to consumption, investment, and government spending, to be added to the IS equation.

它还要求除了消费、投资和政府支出之外，还需要将净出口添加到IS方程中。

An open economy tends to diminish the effect of fiscal stimulus.

开放的经济往往会削弱财政刺激的效果。

As interest rates rise in the United States, foreign capital is attracted into the United States.

随着美国利率上升，吸引外资进入美国。

To make those investments, foreigners demand dollars and supply foreign currency.

为了进行这些投资，外国人需要美元并供应外币。

The increased dollar demand increases the price of the dollar in foreign currency, and this higher price makes exports more costly and imports less costly.

美元需求的增加提高了美元的外币价格，这种更高的价格使得出口成本更高，进口成本更低。

This results in a decrease in net exports, reducing the increase in output.

这导致净出口减少，从而减少产出的增长。

In the extreme, if international capital were perfectly mobile and the United States were a small country, any effect of a fiscal stimulus would theoretically be completely offset, leading to a substitution of consumption and government spending for net exports.

在极端情况下，如果国际资本完全流动，而美国是一个小国，理论上财政刺激的任何效果都会被完全抵消，导致消费和政府支出取代净出口。

Because capital is not perfectly mobile and the United States is a large country, fiscal policy should still be effective in stimulating or restraining the economy.

由于资本不是完全流动的，而且美国是一个大国，财政政策对于刺激或抑制经济应该仍然有效。

Monetary policy theoretically becomes more powerful in an open economy: as an increase in the money supply causes the interest rate to fall, capital flows out of the country, causing net exports to rise.

理论上，货币政策在开放经济中会变得更加强大：随着货币供应量的增加导致利率下降，资本流出该国，导致净出口上升。

Another modification to the model is to recognize that investment can respond to expected demand.

该模型的另一个修改是认识到投资可以对预期需求做出反应。

With this extension, as the economy expands and that expansion is expected to be sustained, firms will increase investment in capital goods (known as the accelerator effect ), thereby increasing their capacity.

通过这种扩展，随着经济扩张并且预计扩张将持续，企业将增加对资本货物的投资（称为加速器效应），从而提高其产能。

The rate at which capital accumulates in an expanding economy will therefore reflect the rate at which capital investment increases in response to output and the rate of capital depreciation (or how much capital value is lost in any one period) over time.

因此，扩张经济中的资本积累速度将反映资本投资随着产出而增加的速度以及资本折旧率（或在任何一个时期内损失了多少资本价值）。

Economists had long been concerned that the IS-LM model does not fully account for expectations of future behavior, and lacked the microeconomic foundations where individuals allocate consumption and leisure over time.

经济学家长期以来一直担心 IS-LM 模型没有完全考虑对未来行为的预期，并且缺乏个人随时间分配消费和休闲的微观经济基础。

One way to incorporate such an idea is to make consumption determined by the interest rate as well as disposable income, reflecting the idea that as the interest rate rises individuals want to save more (and consume less).

体现这一想法的一种方法是让消费由利率和可支配收入决定，这反映了这样的想法：随着利率上升，个人希望储蓄更多（并减少消费）。

This effect has also been extended to the allocation of leisure and labor, and is most formally contained in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models.

这种效应也已扩展到休闲和劳动力的分配，并且最正式地包含在动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型中。

9 DSGE models include a demand block, a supply block, and a monetary policy relationship.

9 DSGE 模型包括需求块、供给块和货币政策关系。

In general, while modifications could easily allow consumption to depend on interest rates, use of a full-blown DSGE model is more common among academics than among private forecasters or government forecasters.

一般来说，虽然修改很容易让消费依赖于利率，但成熟的 DSGE 模型在学术界的使用比私人预测者或政府预测者更常见。

10 The model has been criticized by a number of mainstream academics.

10 该模型受到了一些主流学者的批评。

Over the long run, economic business cycle models converge into economic growth models.

从长远来看，经济景气周期模型趋于经济增长模型。

Economic growth in the longer term is assumed to be at full employment, and the economy grows with the labor force, capital accumulation, and technological advances.

长期经济增长假定是在充分就业的情况下实现的，经济随着劳动力、资本积累和技术进步而增长。

The long run, unlike the short run (where the economy can gain from reducing unemployment), is characterized by fixed resources and tradeoffs.

与短期（经济可以从减少失业中获益）不同，长期的特点是资源固定和权衡。

What is most relevant to fiscal and monetary stimulus is that mainstream economic theory suggests that using fiscal stimulus may be good for growth in the short run, but can be harmful in the long run.

与财政和货币刺激最相关的是，主流经济理论表明，使用财政刺激可能在短期内有利于增长，但从长期来看可能有害。

If fiscal deficits allow consumption to increase at the expense of investment, as would be the case with running the deficit that causes the debt to grow faster than GDP, the economy will continually experience slower growth as the capital stock fails to grow at a quick enough pace.

如果财政赤字导致消费以牺牲投资为代价而增加，就像赤字导致债务增长快于GDP的情况一样，那么由于资本存量无法以足够快的速度增长，经济将持续放缓增长。

Excessive monetary stimulus, meanwhile, would lead to price level increases that, if followed persistently would lead to an inflationary spiral.

与此同时，过度的货币刺激将导致物价上涨，如果持续下去，将导致通货膨胀螺旋式上升。

The most common growth model is one that reflects a more or less steady-state growth (although that growth pattern may reflect growth in the labor supply).

最常见的增长模式或多或少反映了稳态增长（尽管这种增长模式可能反映了劳动力供给的增长）。

This section explores MMT's basic macroeconomic principles and distinctive characteristics and discusses how to interpret the model into the more conventional IS-LM framework.

本节探讨 MMT 的基本宏观经济原理和显着特征，并讨论如何将该模型解释为更传统的 IS-LM 框架。

Because MMT is an emerging ideology, definitively identifying the research that encapsulates it can be difficult.

由于现代货币理论是一种新兴的意识形态，因此确定概括它的研究可能很困难。

Publications and other works from both proponents of MMT and mainstream economists used in this report are listed in the references section.

本报告中使用的 MMT 支持者和主流经济学家的出版物和其他作品列于参考文献部分。

Though some MMT proponents have expressed caution in viewing MMT through a traditional macroeconomic framework, this approach is consistent with work found both elsewhere in the MMT literature and in mainstream economic analysis, including research with theoretical elements aligning with some of MMT's central assertions.

尽管一些现代货币理论的支持者对通过传统宏观经济框架来看待现代货币理论表示谨慎，但这种方法与现代货币理论文献和主流经济分析中的其他工作是一致的，包括与现代货币理论的一些核心主张相一致的理论元素的研究。

MMT's theory does not take into account self-imposed constraints (i.e., those other than resource constraints), such as lack of a sovereign currency, or of other institutions, such as independence of the monetary authority (the Federal Reserve in the United States) and the Treasury that allows the creation of money to finance government spending.

MMT 的理论没有考虑自我施加的约束（即资源约束以外的约束），例如缺乏主权货币，或其他机构，例如货币当局（美国的美联储）和财政部允许创造货币来资助政府支出的独立性。

As will be discussed subsequently, U.S. institutions may limit the application of MMT to the management of the economy.

正如随后将讨论的，美国机构可能会限制现代货币理论在经济管理中的应用。

As with all macroeconomics, some of the theory is about description and some about prescription, but MMT varies by including prescriptive points that restrain monetary policy to keep a fixed interest rate (this policy will leave fiscal policy as the only tool to address the business cycle).

与所有宏观经济学一样，有些理论是关于描述的，有些是关于规定的，但现代货币理论的不同之处在于包括限制货币政策以保持固定利率的规定要点（这一政策将使财政政策成为解决商业周期的唯一工具）。

According to the model, when fiscal stimulus produces no inflation, there are still unused resources in the economy, and when fiscal stimulus leads to inflation, the stimulus will be reduced or reversed, thereby reducing the deficit or converting it to a surplus.

根据该模型，当财政刺激不产生通货膨胀时，经济中仍然存在未使用的资源，而当财政刺激导致通货膨胀时，刺激将减少或逆转，从而减少赤字或将其转化为盈余。

Just as with the basic macroeconomic model, analysis of MMT's macroeconomic principles may begin by accounting for all the choices available with output in a closed economy, which are private consumption, investment, and government spending.

正如基本宏观经济模型一样，对现代货币理论宏观经济原理的分析可以从考虑封闭经济中产出的所有可用选择开始，即私人消费、投资和政府支出。

14 In equilibrium (when aggregate expenditures are equal to output), this accounting identity can be reframed to show that the difference between national saving and investment is equal to the difference between government spending and government taxes (or the federal budget deficit), which can also be found in the basic approach.

14 在均衡状态下（当总支出等于产出时），可以重新构建这一会计恒等式，以表明国民储蓄和投资之间的差额等于政府支出和政府税收（或联邦预算赤字）之间的差额，这也可以在基本方法中找到。

One notable distinction between MMT and the basic macroeconomic structure is that MMT assumes private investment levels are insensitive to changes in the interest rate (or the rate of return that investment would offer), at least when the economy is below capacity.

现代货币理论与基本宏观经济结构之间的一个显着区别是，现代货币理论假设私人投资水平对利率（或投资提供的回报率）的变化不敏感，至少在经济低于产能的情况下是如此。

15 The insensitivity of investment to interest rates means that unlike the basic model, where there are a series of output and interest rate combinations where the investment and savings levels are in balance, with MMT desired investment and savings are equivalent at a single level of output, regardless of the interest rate.

15 投资对利率不敏感意味着，与基本模型不同，基本模型存在一系列产出和利率组合，其中投资和储蓄水平保持平衡，而现代货币理论期望的投资和储蓄在单一产出水平上是等价的，无论利率如何。

This relationship alone (which may be described as having a vertical IS curve) is possible in certain permutations of the basic macroeconomic model.

仅这种关系（可以描述为具有垂直 IS 曲线）在基本宏观经济模型的某些排列中是可能的。

As with the basic approach, consumption may be a positive function of income with the MMT investment and interest rate assumption.

与基本方法一样，在 MMT 投资和利率假设下，消费可能是收入的正函数。

Fiscal policy may still be used to influence economic outcomes in the short run with an investment–savings relationship consistent with MMT.

财政政策仍可用于在短期内影响经济结果，投资与储蓄的关系符合现代货币理论。

In the basic model, the effect of expansionary fiscal policy (or an increase in the deficit, or spending more than received in taxes) would, all else equal, increase interest rates, which would thereby reduce private investment and influence present and future saving and consumption patterns.

在基本模型中，在其他条件相同的情况下，扩张性财政政策（或赤字增加，或支出超过税收）的影响将增加利率，从而减少私人投资并影响当前和未来的储蓄和消费模式。

Under the MMT condition, investment levels would be unaffected by the change in interest rates caused by the shift in government activity.

在现代货币理论条件下，投资水平不会受到政府活动转变引起的利率变化的影响。

Expansionary fiscal policy (as seen in Figure 1 ) would therefore still increase income and output in a given period, with a decrease in government deficits having the opposite effect.

因此，扩张性财政政策（如图 1 所示）仍会增加特定时期内的收入和产出，而政府赤字的减少则会产生相反的效果。

Even if the IS curve is sensitive to interest rates, the same outcome could be achieved by an accommodating money supply response that keeps the interest rate fixed (which is also a part of the MMT approach, as discussed below), although this outcome would be the result of a policy choice rather than of fundamental economic factors.

即使 IS 曲线对利率敏感，通过保持利率固定的宽松货币供应量反应（这也是 MMT 方法的一部分，如下所述）也可以实现相同的结果，尽管这一结果将是政策选择的结果，而不是基本经济因素的结果。

As with mainstream macroeconomic theory, equilibrium in MMT requires equivalence between money supplied and money demanded.

与主流宏观经济理论一样，现代货币理论的均衡要求货币供给与货币需求相等。

The concept of money, however, is applied differently in MMT than in mainstream macroeconomics, which has ramifications for money's relationship with other economic variables and how it may be managed by monetary and fiscal policy.

然而，货币概念在现代货币理论中的应用与在主流宏观经济学中的应用不同，这对货币与其他经济变量的关系以及如何通过货币和财政政策进行管理产生影响。

Rather than taking money as the cash and close substitutes created by a central bank, MMT proponents believe that money in a financial system is legitimized as the government accepts it as payment for taxes.

现代货币理论的支持者认为，金融体系中的货币是合法的，因为政府接受它作为税收的支付方式，而不是把货币视为中央银行创造的现金和密切替代品。

In this view, government spending may be thought of as "creating" the money that circulates in an economy.

按照这种观点，政府支出可能被认为是“创造”经济中流通的货币。

At the simplest level, assuming the Federal Reserve and the Treasury are the same entity (ignoring self-imposed constraints), the monetary authority provides the money to finance government spending (i.e., by depositing money in the Treasury checking account) which injects money into the economy which is, in turn, used to pay taxes.

在最简单的层面上，假设美联储和财政部是同一实体（忽略自我施加的约束），货币当局提供资金来资助政府支出（即通过将资金存入财政部支票账户），从而将资金注入经济，而经济又用于纳税。

In a more complex model where the Federal Reserve supports the aims of the Treasury, the money would be lent to the Treasury, directly or indirectly, and thus some discussions also speak of the government lending money into existence.

在美联储支持财政部目标的更复杂的模型中，资金将直接或间接借给财政部，因此一些讨论也谈到政府借钱的存在。

This distinction in the concept of money alone does not generate differences in the beliefs about the viability of long-term deficit financing (which is discussed further below).

货币概念上的这种区别本身并不会产生对长期赤字融资可行性的信念差异（这将在下面进一步讨论）。

MMT proponents assert that the interaction of market operations undertaken by banking institutions and Federal Reserve actions that are designed to meet interest rate targets effectively allow banking institutions to make their own lending choices independent of reserve requirements and other restrictions.

现代货币理论的支持者声称，银行机构进行的市场操作与美联储旨在有效实现利率目标的行动之间的相互作用，使银行机构能够独立于准备金要求和其他限制而做出自己的贷款选择。

In their view, this greatly restricts the ability of the Federal Reserve (or any central bank) to control the supply of money, even if they can influence market interest rates.

在他们看来，这极大地限制了美联储（或任何中央银行）控制货币供应的能力，即使它们可以影响市场利率。

Assuming the central bank affects interest rates without direct control over the money supply is not necessarily inconsistent with the mainstream macroeconomic approach.

假设央行在不直接控制货币供应的情况下影响利率，并不一定与主流宏观经济方法不一致。

The LM curve is horizontal because the target is the interest rate, although even if the interest rate changed, it would not affect output ( Figure 8 may be used as a reference).

LM曲线是水平的，因为目标是利率，尽管即使利率发生变化，也不会影响产出（可参考图8）。

The central bank can set any rate, but could set a low rate, perhaps near or at zero, which would lower the cost of government borrowing (in situations where the central bank cannot directly add funds to the government's checking account).

央行可以设定任何利率，但可以设定较低的利率，可能接近或为零，这将降低政府借贷成本（在央行无法直接向政府支票账户添加资金的情况下）。

16 Again, the LM curve is not necessarily horizontal because it is naturally that way (MMT discussions do not present a formalized LM curve), but it is horizontal if a fixed interest rate is targeted.

16 同样，LM 曲线不一定是水平的，因为它自然就是这样的（MMT 讨论没有提出正式的 LM 曲线），但如果目标利率是固定的，那么它就是水平的。

The level of that fixed interest could be chosen at any rate, although many adherents support a zero nominal interest rate.

尽管许多追随者支持零名义利率，但固定利率的水平可以任意选择。

Such an interest rate could be made consistent with a low and stable rate of inflation by changing fiscal policy (e.g., if inflation is increasing, taxes should be increased and spending cut).

通过改变财政政策，可以使这种利率与低而稳定的通货膨胀率保持一致（例如，如果通货膨胀加剧，则应增加税收并削减支出）。

Setting a determinable price level requires a contractionary fiscal policy when demand exceeds potential output to prevent continuing inflation.

当需求超过潜在产出时，设定可确定的价格水平需要采取紧缩的财政政策，以防止持续的通货膨胀。

MMT's notion that monetary policy can maintain any chosen interest rate over an extended time period is a significant deviation from mainstream monetary theory.

现代货币理论认为货币政策可以在较长时期内维持任何选定的利率，这是与主流货币理论的重大偏差。

That assertion requires the absence of any other significant economic force influencing interest rates, including the effects of expected inflation.

这一主张要求不存在任何其他影响利率的重要经济力量，包括预期通胀的影响。

The existence and impact of inflation expectations is well documented and supported in the economic literature.

通货膨胀预期的存在和影响在经济文献中有详细记录和支持。

17 If there are such nonmoney influences, the adoption of a chosen interest rate may only be maintained with constant injections of money that cause consequent inflationary pressures.

17 如果存在此类非货币影响，则只能通过不断注入货币来维持所选利率的采用，从而导致随之而来的通货膨胀压力。

Contractionary fiscal policy may not by itself be able to constrain these pressures.

紧缩性财政政策本身可能无法抑制这些压力。

The notion that a sovereign government can generate as much money as it chooses without inducing inflation is another notable deviation of MMT from conventional economic analysis.

主权政府可以在不引发通货膨胀的情况下创造尽可能多的货币，这是现代货币理论与传统经济分析的另一个显着偏差。

In examining writings by MMT proponents, it is not always clear whether the reliance on fiscal policy (rather than monetary policy) to address an underemployed economy is descriptive (only fiscal policy works) or prescriptive (only fiscal policy should be used because it is too difficult to undertake monetary policy).

在审查现代货币理论支持者的著作时，并不总是清楚依靠财政政策（而不是货币政策）来解决就业不足的经济问题是描述性的（只有财政政策有效）还是规定性的（只应该使用财政政策，因为实施货币政策太困难了）。

Proponents appear to believe that the monetary authorities can influence interest rates, including through the buying and selling of bonds as well as directly setting certain interest rates.

支持者似乎认为货币当局可以影响利率，包括通过买卖债券以及直接设定一定的利率。

It is also not clear whether the vertical IS curve is relevant only in an underemployed economy.

还不清楚垂直 IS 曲线是否仅与就业不足的经济体相关。

If the rule for monetary policy is not prescriptive and investment is always insensitive to interest rates, it is difficult to square the theory with the use of monetary policy in the early 1980s to contract the economy and squeeze out inflation, an event widely accepted by economists and consistent with mainstream theory.

如果货币政策规则不明确，投资总是对利率不敏感，那么这一理论就很难与20世纪80年代初利用货币政策收缩经济、挤出通货膨胀这一被经济学家广泛接受、与主流理论一致的事件相吻合。

The MMT assumption of investment being insensitive to interest rates means that only fiscal policy can be used to shift an underperforming economy to full output in the short run.

现代货币理论假设投资对利率不敏感，这意味着只有财政政策才能在短期内将表现不佳的经济转变为充分产出。

Under those assumptions, deficit financing in a recession would be an effective way of closing the corresponding gap in output and income, and the Federal Reserve would be tasked with restraining any subsequent increase in interest rates.

根据这些假设，经济衰退时的赤字融资将是缩小相应产出和收入缺口的有效方式，而美联储将负责限制随后的利率上升。

This combination has been described as an "extreme Keynesian" approach in the mainstream literature.

这种组合在主流文献中被描述为“极端凯恩斯主义”方法。

18 The IS-LM curves generated by MMT assumptions are shown in Figure 8 .

18 MMT 假设生成的 IS-LM 曲线如图 8 所示。

Source: Nick Rowe, "Reverse-Engineering the MMT Model," A Worthwhile Canadian Initiative (blog), 2011, at https://worthwhile.typepad.com/ worthwhile_canadian_initi/ 2011/ 04/ reverse-engineering-the-mmt-model.html .

资料来源：Nick Rowe，“对 MMT 模型进行逆向工程”，一项有价值的加拿大倡议（博客），2011 年，网址为 https://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2011/04/reverse-engineering-the-mmt-model.html。

Notes: Interest rates (r) are measured on the y-axis, and output (Y) is measured on the x-axis.

注：利率 (r) 在 y 轴上测量，产出 (Y) 在 x 轴上测量。

The figure depicts an IS-LM relationship in a recession, where actual output (Y0) is lower than output would be at full employment (Yn).

该图描绘了经济衰退中的 IS-LM 关系，其中实际产出 (Y0) 低于充分就业时的产出 (Yn)。

Interest rates are assumed to be a policy variable, thus there is no difference between actual interest rates (r0) and those at full employment (rn).

假设利率是政策变量，因此实际利率（r0）与充分就业利率（rn）之间没有差异。

Because under the MMT model the selection of an interest rate plays no role in investment or consumption decisions, proponents call for an interest rate that is more or less fixed at a lower level than current targets.

由于在现代货币理论模型下，利率的选择在投资或消费决策中不起任何作用，因此支持者呼吁将利率或多或少固定在低于当前目标的水平。

Providing for a low level of interest would reduce federal borrowing costs, although fixing rates too close to zero raises questions about how the government and other borrowers would convince creditors to lend money when the relative costs of holding more liquid assets are lowered.

提供低利率将降低联邦借贷成本，尽管将利率固定在太接近于零的水平会引发人们的疑问，即当持有更多流动资产的相对成本降低时，政府和其他借款人如何说服债权人放贷。

With interest rates assumed to be fixed and monetary policy largely taken out of business cycle management, the MMT equilibrium output where aggregate demand meets aggregate supply is a function of total factor productivity (as before, the capital stock is assumed to be fixed), fiscal policy choices, and employment.

由于假设利率是固定的，货币政策在很大程度上脱离了经济周期管理，总需求满足总供给的现代货币理论均衡产出是全要素生产率（和以前一样，假设资本存量是固定的）、财政政策选择和就业的函数。

If fiscal stimulus occurs in an underemployed economy, output will increase.

如果在就业不足的经济中实施财政刺激，产出就会增加。

If the economy is at full employment, fiscal stimulus will not increase real output, but rather induce inflation, which is a signal to undertake contractionary fiscal policy.

如果经济处于充分就业状态，财政刺激不会增加实际产出，反而会引发通货膨胀，这是采取紧缩财政政策的信号。

With no investment sensitivity to interest rates, or if the interest rate is fixed by the monetary authorities, a fiscal stimulus at full employment will under the MMT model theoretically lead to an inflationary spiral.

由于投资对利率不敏感，或者如果利率由货币当局固定，MMT模型下充分就业的财政刺激理论上会导致通货膨胀螺旋式上升。

This effect means that it would be crucial to be able to exert fiscal discipline if inflation appears.

这种效应意味着，如果出现通货膨胀，能够实施财政纪律至关重要。

Again, these effects are a function of MMT's IS and LM assumptions and mirror the fiscal policy findings in the "extreme Keynesian" mainstream view.

同样，这些影响是现代货币理论的 IS 和 LM 假设的函数，反映了“极端凯恩斯主义”主流观点中的财政政策研究结果。

Unlike the mainstream model, where an increase in demand at full employment leads to a contraction of the real money supply which chokes off demand (leaving the level of demand fixed but its mix changed), there is no link between the IS-LM curve and AD-AS curve that produces an equilibrium in prices and output.

与主流模型不同，在主流模型中，充分就业时需求的增加会导致实际货币供应量的收缩，从而抑制需求（需求水平保持不变，但其结构发生变化），IS-LM曲线和产生价格和产出均衡的AD-AS曲线之间没有联系。

Instead, excess demand produces an increase in the price level that must be met with a contractionary fiscal policy in MMT.

相反，超额需求会导致物价水平上升，而现代货币理论中必须通过紧缩性财政政策来满足这一上涨。

(In effect, explicit action must also be taken in the mainstream model where the Federal Reserve is managing business cycles, but the Federal Reserve targets interest rates rather than money aggregates.

（实际上，在美联储管理商业周期的主流模式中也必须采取明确的行动，但美联储的目标是利率而不是货币总量。

The Fed must recognize the inflationary pressure and take explicit action to offset it with higher interest rates.)

美联储必须认识到通胀压力，并采取明确行动以提高利率来抵消通胀压力。）

Proponents of MMT also advance a federal job guarantee.

现代货币理论的支持者还提出了联邦就业保障。

A job guarantee is not integral to the MMT theory described above, because such a theory would presumably hold, according to MMT advocates, regardless of the presence of the job guarantee.

工作保障并不是上述 MMT 理论不可或缺的一部分，因为根据 MMT 的倡导者的说法，无论工作保障是否存在，这种理论都可能成立。

Nevertheless, it is widely advocated by MMT proponents.

尽管如此，它仍受到现代货币理论支持者的广泛提倡。

Although how the jobs guarantee is structured is largely undefined, such a policy would likely reduce the fluctuation in employment levels across business cycles and increase government deficit financing.

尽管就业保障的结构在很大程度上尚未确定，但此类政策可能会减少经济周期内就业水平的波动，并增加政府赤字融资。

It would presumably be designed to largely eliminate certain types of unemployment (circumstances where individuals willing to work cannot find a job at a reasonable wage either because of the business cycle or a mismatch of skills and labor demand), although frictional unemployment (where individuals are engaged in job searches) would remain.

它的目的可能是在很大程度上消除某些类型的失业（由于商业周期或技能与劳动力需求不匹配，愿意工作的个人无法以合理工资找到工作的情况），尽管摩擦性失业（个人从事求职）仍然存在。

The specific characteristics and implementation process of any job guarantee would likely play a significant role in determining its ultimate effect on output, employment, and price levels.

任何就业保障的具体特征和实施过程都可能在决定其对产出、就业和价格水平的最终影响方面发挥重要作用。

Because there is cyclical fluctuation in unemployment, the size of the guaranteed job workforce would fluctuate, making a match between workers and needed tasks difficult.

由于失业存在周期性波动，保障就业劳动力的规模也会波动，导致工人与所需任务之间的匹配变得困难。

Unlike the market economy that determines jobs and products based on consumer demand, the assignment of work and output would have to be determined largely by fiat.

与根据消费者需求决定工作和产品的市场经济不同，工作和产出的分配必须在很大程度上由法令决定。

When goods provided by the government are not explicitly based on the needs for collective goods or goods with public spillovers (such as a military force or highways), misallocation of resources may be more likely to occur.

当政府提供的商品不是明确基于集体商品或具有公共溢出效应的商品（例如军队或高速公路）的需求时，更容易发生资源错配。

Some resources would, theoretically, be diverted from the private sector with a higher effective minimum wage through the government job alternative.

从理论上讲，一些资源将通过政府工作替代方案从有效最低工资更高的私营部门转移。

The job market in the United States is not uniform, presenting additional challenges for a proposed job guarantee.

美国的就业市场并不统一，这给拟议的就业保障带来了额外的挑战。

For example, there could be considerable difficulties satisfying the guarantee in sparsely populated rural areas, filling jobs requiring background checks, or because some applicants may not be suitable for certain jobs (such as home health care or child care).

例如，在人口稀少的农村地区，满足保障要求、填补需要背景调查的职位，或者因为某些申请人可能不适合某些职位（例如家庭医疗保健或儿童保育），可能会遇到相当大的困难。

There are also issues about how to treat workers who violated the terms of employment (such as persistent tardiness).

还有如何对待违反雇佣条款（例如持续迟到）的工人的问题。

Finally, jobs may need capital inputs (e.g., construction equipment) and supplies, and workers in rural areas may have problems finding transportation.

最后，工作可能需要资本投入（例如建筑设备）和物资，而农村地区的工人可能难以找到交通工具。

With an open economy the IS curve contains an additional element, net exports, which is sensitive to interest rates.

在开放经济中，IS 曲线包含一个附加因素，即净出口，它对利率敏感。

Mainstream economic theory postulates that if interest rates rise, capital investment in the United States rises, increasing the demand for dollars, raising the price of the dollar, and decreasing net exports (by both a decrease in exports, which are more costly to foreigners, and an increase in imports).

主流经济理论假设，如果利率上升，美国的资本投资就会增加，从而增加对美元的需求，提高美元的价格，并减少净出口（通过出口减少（对外国人来说成本更高）和进口增加）。

Applied to the MMT model, this would mean that the IS curve would no longer be vertical because investment activity would respond to interest changes.

应用于 MMT 模型，这意味着 IS 曲线将不再是垂直的，因为投资活动会对利率变化做出反应。

In that case, monetary policy that allowed the interest rate to rise would offset a fiscal stimulus.

在这种情况下，允许利率上升的货币政策将抵消财政刺激。

However, the same output effects of fiscal policy as in the closed economy would occur if the monetary authorities kept the interest rate fixed.

然而，如果货币当局保持利率固定，就会出现与封闭经济中相同的财政政策产出效应。

An open economy means that some U.S. debt is held by foreigners and adds to concerns that the relatively low interest rates may make the financing of the debt more difficult, since the central bank and the Treasury are independent.

开放经济意味着一些美国债务由外国人持有，这加剧了人们的担忧，即相对较低的利率可能会使债务融资更加困难，因为央行和财政部是独立的。

The low interest rates would make Treasury debt less attractive to investors.

低利率将降低国债对投资者的吸引力。

This is important because Treasury must raise funds by selling bonds if tax revenues are insufficient for expenditures, and the Federal Reserve cannot lend directly to the Treasury under current law .

这一点很重要，因为如果税收收入不足以支付支出，财政部必须通过出售债券筹集资金，而根据现行法律，美联储不能直接向财政部提供贷款。

Much of the analysis in MMT literature and related research focuses on its application in the short-term, or in managing business cycles.

MMT 文献和相关研究中的大部分分析都集中于其在短期或管理商业周期中的应用。

Less discussed is how the MMT model applies to long run economic variables, including growth and debt sustainability.

较少讨论的是现代货币理论模型如何应用于长期经济变量，包括增长和债务可持续性。

This section discusses MMT's generally short-term view of deficit financing and contrasts it with mainstream economics, which is usually focused on the longer term.

本节讨论现代货币理论对赤字融资的总体短期观点，并将其与通常关注长期的主流经济学进行对比。

Mainstream economics does not call for balanced federal budgets, and is broadly supportive of deficit financing in managing sufficiently large economic shocks.

主流经济学并不要求平衡联邦预算，并且广泛支持赤字融资来应对足够大的经济冲击。

It does, however, recognize limits on the amounts that the federal government (or any economic actor) may borrow: constraints determined by the availability and willingness of investors to finance its borrowing needs at normal interest rates.

然而，它确实承认联邦政府（或任何经济参与者）可以借入的金额受到限制：这些限制是由投资者以正常利率为其借贷需求融资的可用性和意愿决定的。

In the mainstream view, this borrowing is constrained by the total amounts available for investment (savings in dollars) at a given point in time and the attractiveness of other borrowing options available on the market.

主流观点认为，这种借贷受到特定时间点可用于投资的总额（美元储蓄）以及市场上其他借贷选择的吸引力的限制。

In the long term, this constraint means that the amount of federal debt relative to output cannot rise indefinitely.

从长远来看，这种限制意味着联邦债务相对于产出的数额不能无限期地上升。

In a basic macroeconomic model this constraint is violated when the long-term interest rate exceeds the long-term economic growth rate, as the general return on investments generated from expansionary policy will be smaller than the interest payments required to finance that activity.

在基本宏观经济模型中，当长期利率超过长期经济增长率时，就会违反这一约束，因为扩张性政策产生的总体投资回报将小于为该活动融资所需的利息支付。

MMT proponents have generally called for a more active fiscal policy role in managing negative economic shocks.

现代货币理论的支持者普遍呼吁在应对负面经济冲击方面发挥更积极的财政政策作用。

Moreover, the MMT claim that sovereign governments that issue debt in their own currency (like the United States) cannot be forced to default leads to the general perception that an MMT-driven economic structure would involve larger deficits and higher debt levels than those experienced in an economic structure shaped by mainstream economic thinking.

此外，现代货币理论声称，以本国货币发行债务的主权政府（如美国）不能被迫违约，这导致人们普遍认为，现代货币理论驱动的经济结构将比主流经济思维塑造的经济结构带来更大的赤字和更高的债务水平。

This belief is supported by the call for a central bank that consistently sets interest rates near or at zero, which, all else equal, would support deficit financing at lower economic growth rates rather than with higher interest rates if mainstream economic thinking was applied.

这种信念得到了对央行持续将利率设定在接近或为零的呼吁的支持，在其他条件相同的情况下，如果应用主流经济思维，这将支持以较低的经济增长率而不是较高的利率进行赤字融资。

The notion that a sovereign government cannot be forced to default appears to be a central tenet of MMT because of the view that money creation can substitute for taxes or borrowing to finance government.

主权政府不能被迫违约的观念似乎是现代货币理论的核心原则，因为货币创造可以替代税收或借贷来为政府融资。

There have been, however, many instances of sovereign governments defaulting explicitly, or implicitly either by inflating the currency, renegotiating terms, or using other measures to address a difficulty in financing debt.

然而，主权政府通过通货膨胀、重新谈判条款或使用其他措施解决债务融资困难等方式明示或隐含违约的情况屡见不鲜。

21 These other options might be considered default by another name.

21 这些其他选项可能会被视为默认的另一个名称。

While the United States does not appear to face any current concerns about the ability to sell its debt, were a collapse in the market to occur, it might be impossible or at least extremely costly to undertake the needed measures (higher taxes to stem the inflation appearing with money creation).

虽然美国目前似乎没有面临任何有关出售债务能力的担忧，但如果市场崩溃，采取必要措施（通过提高税收来抑制货币创造带来的通货膨胀）可能是不可能的，或者至少成本极高。

In meeting its statutory mandate of minimizing long-run federal borrowing costs, Treasury may redeem and reissue debt at levels that far exceed the amounts required strictly from new deficit-financing activity.

为了履行最小化长期联邦借贷成本的法定职责，财政部可以赎回和重新发行债务，其数额远远超过新赤字融资活动严格要求的数额。

For example, Treasury issued $11.7 trillion in marketable debt in FY2019, which represented more than 70% of the federal marketable debt portfolio.

例如，财政部在 2019 财年发行了 11.7 万亿美元的可流通债务，占联邦可流通债务组合的 70% 以上。

23 Any dramatic increase in interest rates accompanying a debt crisis would thus likely generate higher interest rates not only for debt generated by new federal deficits, but also for a significant portion of the existing debt stock that is redeemed and reissued.

23 因此，伴随债务危机而出现的任何利率大幅上升都可能会导致新的联邦赤字产生的债务利率上升，而且赎回和重新发行的现有债务存量的很大一部分也会上升。

For example, net interest payments during the Greek debt crisis (described below) increased by amounts equivalent to roughly $200 billion in FY2019 dollars, which would require significant tax rate increases, base broadening, or both if needed to meet a sudden change in interest obligations.

例如，希腊债务危机期间（如下所述）的净利息支付增加了约 2000 亿美元（以 2019 财年美元计算），这将需要大幅提高税率、扩大基数，或者如果需要满足利息义务的突然变化，则需要大幅提高税率、扩大基数或两者兼而有之。

If the federal debt position were viewed by the market to be unsustainable, it could lead to a collapse in the demand for Treasury securities that would cause a "debt cycle." In this case, an observation by some investors to sell or avoid federal debt issuances before they defaulted would raise federal interest rates, which would require more federal borrowing and could lead to further investor avoidance and interest increases.

如果市场认为联邦债务状况不可持续，可能会导致国债需求崩溃，从而引发“债务周期”。在这种情况下，一些投资者认为在违约之前出售或避免联邦债券发行将提高联邦利率，这将需要更多的联邦借款，并可能导致投资者进一步回避和利息增加。

Beyond the significant effects on the federal borrowing position, such a process could also have ramifications elsewhere in the financial markets, as federal securities are often used as a currency substitute for overnight interbank lending and other activities central to general financial operations.

除了对联邦借款头寸产生重大影响外，这一过程还可能对金融市场的其他地方产生影响，因为联邦证券经常被用作隔夜银行间借贷和一般金融业务核心活动的货币替代品。

MMT proponents also claim that government deficits must be small enough to limit inflation.

现代货币理论的支持者还声称，政府赤字必须足够小以限制通货膨胀。

It is unclear how this claim distinguishes MMT in a practical sense from the mainstream view, as mainstream macroeconomics would also support fiscal or monetary intervention to avoid significant increases in interest rates in response to rising debt.

目前尚不清楚这一主张如何在实际意义上将现代货币理论与主流观点区分开来，因为主流宏观经济学也会支持财政或货币干预，以避免因债务增加而大幅提高利率。

In the mainstream and MMT case, there is concern that by the time actors identify an urgent debt sustainability problem, it may be difficult to address.

在主流和现代货币理论的情况下，人们担心，当行动者发现紧急的债务可持续性问题时，可能很难解决。

Such a situation would likely be accompanied by a negative economic shock that would make immediately raising taxes (net of spending) difficult, while increasing the money supply risks entering a debt spiral.

这种情况可能会伴随着负面的经济冲击，这将使立即提高税收（扣除支出）变得困难，同时增加货币供应进入债务螺旋的风险。

In the MMT case, such a concern does not arise because of the assumption that the Federal Reserve could finance spending (an assumption at odds with institutional constraints discussed in the next section).

在现代货币理论的情况下，由于假设美联储可以为支出提供资金（这一假设与下一节讨论的制度约束不一致），因此不会出现这种担忧。

Further questions arise when examining the applicability of MMT policies to the United States and other nations that already have relatively high real debt levels.

在审查现代货币理论政策对美国和其他实际债务水平已经相对较高的国家的适用性时，还会出现进一步的问题。

In its most recent long-term budget outlook, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that federal debt held by the public would rise from 78% of GDP in FY2019 to 92% of GDP in FY2029 and 144% of GDP in FY2049, well beyond the historical peak.

美国国会预算办公室（CBO）在最新的长期预算展望中估计，公众持有的联邦债务占GDP的比例将从2019财年的78%升至2029财年的92%和2049财年的144%，远远超过历史峰值。

25 It is possible that a high existing debt stock could practically restrict the availability or effectiveness of MMT-supported fiscal policies in managing business cycles, given the institutional constraints discussed in the next section.

25 考虑到下一节讨论的制度限制，现有债务存量较高可能实际上会限制现代货币理论支持的财政政策在管理商业周期方面的可用性或有效性。

However, currently there are no signs that the federal borrowing capacity is near exhaustion in the short term or medium term, as interest rates remain below Fed-targeted levels.

然而，目前没有迹象表明联邦借贷能力在短期或中期接近耗尽，因为利率仍低于美联储目标水平。

Recent international experiences speak to the complexity of borrowing capacity.

最近的国际经验说明了借贷能力的复杂性。

Both Greece and Japan experienced rapid growth in government debt in the past decade.

过去十年，希腊和日本的政府债务都经历了快速增长。

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data on general government debt (including municipal government debt) indicate that Greek debt rose from 115% of GDP in 2006 to 189% of GDP in 2017, while Japanese debt rose from 180% of GDP to 234% of GDP over the same time period.

经济合作与发展组织（OECD）关于一般政府债务（包括市政府债务）的数据显示，希腊债务占GDP的比重从2006年的115%上升到2017年的189%，而同期日本债务占GDP的比重从180%上升到234%。

A loss in market confidence in Greek debt led to a severe recession there, with GDP contracting by 9 percentage points in 2011, and long-term interest rates reaching 22% in 2012.

市场对希腊债务信心的丧失导致希腊经济严重衰退，2011年GDP萎缩9个百分点，2012年长期利率达到22%。

Japanese borrowing was viewed to be more sustainable despite being higher, with relatively flat GDP levels and long-term interest rates close to zero in recent years.

日本的借贷尽管较高，但被认为更具可持续性，近年来国内生产总值水平相对平稳，长期利率接近于零。

When weighing the merits of structural changes, it may be useful to consider the characteristics of the institutions with power to address business cycles in the current system.

在权衡结构性变革的优点时，考虑当前体系中有权应对商业周期的机构的特征可能会有所帮助。

Members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors have typically been chosen without regard to political affiliation.

美联储理事会成员的选举通常不考虑政治派别。

The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee meets at least every six weeks to adjust open market operations as needed, allowing for a relatively quick and efficient way of implementing monetary policy modifications.

美联储的联邦公开市场委员会至少每六周举行一次会议，根据需要调整公开市场操作，从而以相对快速有效的方式实施货币政策调整。

26 Fiscal policy decisions managing business cycles are largely made through enactment of new legislation, and thus may be affected by the legislative calendar and other political considerations.

26 管理商业周期的财政政策决策主要是通过颁布新立法制定的，因此可能会受到立法日程和其他政治考虑的影响。

27 In practice, these factors may make the evidential threshold for a fiscal policy response higher than that for action by the Federal Reserve.

27 实际上，这些因素可能会使财政政策反应的证据门槛高于美联储采取行动的证据门槛。

The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 ( P.L.

2008 年紧急经济稳定法案 (P.L.

110-343 ), for instance, was enacted in part to alleviate effects of the Great Recession in October 2008, 10 months after the start of the recession as identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

例如，第 110-343 号法案）的颁布部分是为了减轻 2008 年 10 月大衰退的影响，即国家经济研究局确定的经济衰退开始 10 个月后。

28 In contrast, the Federal Reserve also undertook significant action in fall 2008, but was also able to begin taking countercyclical actions as early as September 2007.

28 相比之下，美联储也在 2008 年秋季采取了重大行动，但早在 2007 年 9 月就开始采取反周期行动。

One may also wish to be mindful of the current independence of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve.

人们还可能希望注意财政部和美联储目前的独立性。

In MMT, these groups are treated as a single entity, which is equivalent to assuming that the Federal Reserve can make funds available to the Treasury to spend as it needs.

在现代货币理论中，这些群体被视为一个单一实体，这相当于假设美联储可以向财政部提供资金以供其按需支出。

Present laws prohibit the Federal Reserve from lending or allowing overdrafts to the Treasury, so the Treasury must sell bonds at whatever interest rate prevails when revenues are inadequate to finance spending.

现行法律禁止美联储向财政部放贷或允许透支，因此，当收入不足以资助支出时，财政部必须以任何现行利率出售债券。

The Federal Reserve faces no statutory limits on how much federal debt it may purchase in the secondary market, however, so that it can lend indirectly.

然而，美联储在二级市场上购买联邦债务的数量并没有受到法定限制，因此可以间接放贷。

The degree of independence between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury has varied over time, however, with periods of relatively high cooperation.

然而，美联储和财政部之间的独立程度随着时间的推移而变化，但合作程度相对较高。

Even if the Federal Reserve can lend indirectly to the Treasury, it has different objectives than cheap financing of the debt.

即使美联储可以间接向财政部提供贷款，其目标也与廉价债务融资不同。

The Federal Reserve acts under a statutory mandate of "maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates." 31 If the Federal Reserve determines, for instance, that such a mandate warrants contractionary policy, it has the authority to enact contractionary policy, even if such actions would negate expansionary fiscal policy efforts.

美联储根据“最大就业、稳定价格和适度长期利率”的法定授权行事。 31 例如，如果美联储确定这种授权需要采取紧缩政策，那么它就有权实施紧缩政策，即使这种行动会抵消扩张性财政政策的努力。

It is possible, therefore, that MMT-supported policies may need the support of both federal policymakers and Federal Reserve actors to take full effect.

因此，现代货币理论支持的政策可能需要联邦政策制定者和美联储行为者的支持才能充分发挥作用。

Economists have justified delegating this authority to the Federal Reserve on the ground that an insulated institution is more likely to choose policies consistent with low inflation.

经济学家认为将这一权力委托给美联储是合理的，因为一个孤立的机构更有可能选择与低通胀相一致的政策。

If correct, subordinating the Federal Reserve could result in a choice of policies under the MMT framework that removes this check against high inflation.

如果正确的话，美联储的从属地位可能会导致现代货币理论框架下的政策选择，从而取消对高通胀的抑制。

Barro, Robert J.

巴罗，罗伯特·J.

"On the Determination of the Public Debt." Journal of Political Economy 87, no. 5 (October 1979): 940.

“论公共债务的确定”。政治经济学杂志 87，第 1 期。 5（1979 年 10 月）：940。

Bell, Stephanie.

贝尔，斯蒂芬妮。

The Hierarchy of Money.

金钱的等级制度。

The Jerome Levy Economics Institute, Working Paper Series 231, April 1998.

杰罗姆·利维经济研究所，工作论文系列 231，1998 年 4 月。

——.

——。

"Do Taxes and Bonds Finance Government Spending?," Journal of Economic Issues 34, no. 3 (September 2000): 603.

“税收和债券为政府支出提供资金吗？”，《经济问题杂志》，第 34 期，第 1 期。 3（2000 年 9 月）：603。

Blanchard, Oliver J.

布兰查德，奥利弗·J.

Public Debt and Low Interest Rates .

公共债务和低利率。

National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. 25621, February 2019.

国家经济研究局，NBER 工作文件第 25621 号，2019 年 2 月。

Chick, Victoria.

小鸡，维多利亚。

The Theory of Monetary Policy , vol. 5 .

货币政策理论，第一卷。 5.

London: Gray-Mills Publishing Limited, 1973.

伦敦：格雷米尔斯出版有限公司，1973 年。

Chinn, Menzie D.

钦，孟齐·D.

Notes on Modern Monetary Theory for Paleo-Keynesians , Spring 2019, at https://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~mchinn/mmt_add2.pdf .

《古凯恩斯主义现代货币理论笔记》，2019 年春季，网址：https://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~mchinn/mmt_add2.pdf。

Fullwiler, Scott.

福尔维勒，斯科特。

"Functional Finance and the Debt Ratio-Part I." New Economic Perspectives (blog), December 2012, at http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/12/functional-finance-and-the-debt-ratio-part-i.html .

“功能性金融和债务比率——第一部分。”新经济视角（博客），2012 年 12 月，网址：http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2012/12/function-finance-and-the-debt-ratio-part-i.html。

Lerner, Abba P.

勒纳，阿巴·P.

"Functional Finance and the Federal Debt." Social Research , no. 1 (February 1943): 38.

“功能性金融和联邦债务。”社会研究，没有。 1（1943 年 2 月）：38。

Palley, Thomas K.

帕利，托马斯·K.

Money, F iscal P olicy and I nterest R ates: A C ritique of Modern Monetary Theory .

货币、财政政策和利率：现代货币理论批判。

The Hans Boeckler Foundation, IMK Working Paper No. 109, January 2013.

Hans Boeckler 基金会，IMK 工作文件第 109 号，2013 年 1 月。

Rachel, Lukasz, and Lawrence H.

雷切尔、卢卡斯和劳伦斯 H.

Summers.

萨默斯。

On Falling Neutral Real Rates, Fiscal Policy, and Secular Stagnation .

关于中性实际利率下降、财政政策和长期停滞。

Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, March 2019, at https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/on-falling-neutral-real-rates-fiscal-policy-and-the-risk-of-secular-stagnation/ .

布鲁金斯学会经济活动论文，2019 年 3 月，网址：https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/on-falling-neutral-real-rates-fiscal-policy-and-the-risk-of-seular-stagnation/。

Rogoff, Kenneth.

罗格夫、肯尼思.

"Modern Monetary Nonsense." Project Syndicate, March 2019, at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/federal-reserve-modern-monetary-theory-dangers-by-kenneth-rogoff-2019-03?barrier=accesspaylog .

“现代货币的胡言乱语。”项目辛迪加，2019 年 3 月，https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/federal-reserve-modern-monetary-theory-dangers-by-kenneth-rogoff-2019-03?barrier=accesspaylog 。

Rowe, Nick.

罗、尼克.

"Reverse-Engineering the MMT Model." A Worthwhile Canadian Initiative (blog), 2011, at https://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2011/04/reverse-engineering-the-mmt-model.html .

“对 MMT 模型进行逆向工程。”一项有价值的加拿大倡议（博客），2011 年，网址为 https://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2011/04/reverse-engineering-the-mmt-model.html。

Sharpe, Timothy P.

夏普，蒂莫西·P.

"A Modern Money Perspective on Financial Crowding-Out." Review of Political Economy 25 (November 2013): 586.

“关于金融挤出的现代货币视角。”政治经济学评论 25（2013 年 11 月）：586。

Shiller, Robert.

席勒、罗伯特.

"Modern Monetary Theory Makes Sense, Up to a Point." The New York Times , March 29, 2019, at https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/business/modern-monetary-theory-shiller.html .

“现代货币理论在某种程度上是有道理的。” 《纽约时报》，2019 年 3 月 29 日，网址：https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/business/modern-monetary-theory-shiller.html。

Tcherneva, Pavlina R.

切尔内瓦，帕夫丽娜·R.

"The Role of Fiscal Policy." International Journal of Political Economy 41, no. 2 (Summer 2012): 5.

“财政政策的作用。”国际政治经济学杂志 41，第 1 期。 2（2012 年夏季）：5。

Wray, L.

雷，L.

Randall.

兰德尔.

Modern Monetary Theory: A Primer on Macroeconomics for Sovereign Monetary Systems.

现代货币理论：主权货币体系宏观经济学入门。

2 nd ed.

第二版。

New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015.

纽约：帕尔格雷夫·麦克米伦，2015。

The editors of a recent journal issue devoted to MMT identify the following individuals as major proponents of MMT: Stephanie Kelton, L.

最近一期专门讨论 MMT 的期刊编辑将以下人士确定为 MMT 的主要支持者：Stephanie Kelton, L.

Randall Wray, William F.

兰德尔·雷，威廉·F.

Mitchell, Eric Tymoigne, Dirk Ehnts, Scott T.

米切尔、埃里克·蒂莫瓦尼、德克·埃恩茨、斯科特·T.

Fullwiler, Fadel Kaboub, Pavlina R.

富尔维勒、法德尔·卡布布、帕夫丽娜·R.

Tcherneva, and Warren Mosler.

切尔内瓦和沃伦·莫斯勒。

See "Introduction: Whither MMT?" Real-World Economics Review , Issue No. 89, 2019, at http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue89/FullbrookMorgan89.pdf .

请参阅“简介：MMT 何去何从？” 《现实世界经济评论》，2019 年第 89 期，网址：http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue89/FullbrookMorgan89.pdf。

Stephanie Kelton's earlier papers were published under her former name, Stephanie Bell.

斯蒂芬妮·凯尔顿 (Stephanie Kelton) 早期的论文以她的旧名斯蒂芬妮·贝尔 (Stephanie Bell) 发表。

For a discussion of reasons for low interest rates, see CRS Insight IN11074, Low Interest Rates, Part 3: Potential Causes , by Marc Labonte.

有关低利率原因的讨论，请参阅 CRS Insight IN11074，低利率，第 3 部分：潜在原因，作者：Marc Labonte。

For a discussion of reasons for low inflation rates, see Juan M.

有关低通胀率原因的讨论，请参阅 Juan M.

Sanchez and Hee Sung Kim, "Why is Inflation So Low?" Regional Economist , First Quarter 2018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, at https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/first-quarter-2018/why-inflation-so-low ; and Tyler Durden, "Why Does Inflation Remain So Low: Goldman Answers," Zero Hedge (blog), February 10, 2019, at https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-10/why-does-inflation-remain-so-low-goldman-asnwers .

桑切斯和金熙成，“为什么通货膨胀这么低？”区域经济学家，2018 年第一季度，圣路易斯联邦储备银行，网址：https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/first-quarter-2018/why-inflation-so-low；和 Tyler Durden，“为什么通货膨胀仍然如此低：高盛的答案”，零对冲（博客），2019 年 2 月 10 日，https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-10/why-does-inflation-remain-so-low-goldman-asnwers。

The Goldman analysis suggests one reason may be lower price increases for health care.

高盛分析表明，原因之一可能是医疗保健价格涨幅较低。

CRS Insight IN11074, Low Interest Rates, Part 3: Potential Causes , by Marc Labonte.

CRS Insight IN11074，低利率，第 3 部分：潜在原因，作者：Marc Labonte。

See Menzie D.

参见孟齐·D.

Chinn, Notes on Modern Monetary Theory for Paleo-Keynesians , Spring 2019, at https://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~mchinn/mmt_add2.pdf ; and Nick Rowe , "Reverse-Engineering the MMT Model , " A Worthwhile Canadian Initiative (blog), 2011, at https://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2011/04/reverse-engineering-the-mmt-model.html .

Chinn，《古凯恩斯主义现代货币理论笔记》，2019 年春季，网址：https://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~mchinn/mmt_add2.pdf；和 Nick Rowe，“对 MMT 模型进行逆向工程”，一项有价值的加拿大倡议（博客），2011 年，网址为 https://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2011/04/reverse-engineering-the-mmt-model.html。

There are numerous presentations of IS-LM and aggregate demand and supply graphs available on the internet.

互联网上有许多 IS-LM 的介绍以及总需求和供应图。

See, for example, Diptimai Kari, "Derivation of Aggregate Demand Curve (With Diagram), IS-LM Model," at http://www.economicsdiscussion.net/demand/aggregate-demand-curve/derivation-of-aggregate-demand-curve-with-diagram-is-lm-model/15826 .

例如，参见 Diptimai Kari，“总需求曲线的推导（带图），IS-LM 模型”，网址为 http://www.economicsdiscussion.net/demand/aggregate-demand-curve/derivation-of-aggregate-demand-curve-with-diagram-is-lm-model/15826。

Sticky prices refer to prices charged for certain goods and services that are relatively resistant to change in response to changes in input costs or demand patterns.

粘性价格是指某些商品和服务的价格相对难以随着投入成本或需求模式的变化而变化。

This pair of interest rate and output levels results, when graphed, is a downward sloping curve.

当绘制成图表时，这对利率和产出水平的结果是一条向下倾斜的曲线。

This curve is normally drawn with interest rates on the y (or vertical) axis and income or output on the x (or horizontal) axis.

该曲线通常以 y（或垂直）轴为利率、x（或水平）轴为收入或产出来绘制。

Drawn on a graph, with price on the y (vertical axis) and output on the x (horizontal) axis, the aggregate demand curve is downward sloping and the aggregate supply curve is upward sloping.

绘制在图表上，y（纵轴）为价格，x（横轴）为产出，总需求曲线向下倾斜，总供给曲线向上倾斜。

For more on this model extension, see Dale W.

有关此模型扩展的更多信息，请参阅 Dale W.

Jorgenson, "Capital Theory and Investment Behavior," American Economic Review , vol. 53, no. 2 (May 1963), p.

乔根森，“资本理论与投资行为”，美国经济评论，卷。 53，没有。 2（1963 年 5 月），第 14 页。

247.

The DSGE model is related to another class of models called real business cycle models (RBC).

DSGE 模型与另一类称为真实经济周期模型 (RBC) 的模型相关。

RBC models have infinitely lived individuals, which limits the power of monetary and fiscal policy.

RBC 模型中个体的寿命是无限的，这限制了货币和财政政策的力量。

For example, a cut in taxes will have to be paid in higher taxes in the future, and infinitely lived individuals will therefore save those taxes.

例如，减税将来必须以更高的税收来支付，因此无限寿命的个人将节省这些税收。

Money does not exist in such a model, and business cycles are caused by individuals voluntarily shifting their labor supply over time.

在这样的模型中不存在金钱，商业周期是由个人随时间自愿转移劳动力供应引起的。

The DSGE model is augmented to allow policy effects.

DSGE 模型得到增强以允许政策效应。

See Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, "Life Cycle Economies and Aggregate Fluctuations," The Review of Economic Studies , vol. 63, no. 3 (July 1996), pp.

参见 Jose-Victor Rios-Rull，“生命周期经济和总体波动”，经济研究评论，卷。 63，没有。 3（1996 年 7 月），第 17 页。

465-489.

465-489。

For a discussion, see N.

有关讨论，请参阅 N.

Gregory Mankiw, "The Macroeconomist as Scientist and Engineer," Journal of Economic Perspectives , vol. 20, no. 4 (Fall 2006), pp.

格雷戈里·曼昆，“作为科学家和工程师的宏观经济学家”，《经济展望杂志》，卷。 20、没有。 4（2006 年秋季），第 17 页。

29-46.

29-46。

This paper also a history of the development of macroeconomic modeling.

本文还讲述了宏观经济模型的发展史。

See Paul W.

参见保罗·W.

Romer, "The Trouble with Macroeconomics," September 2016, at https://paulromer.net/the-trouble-with-macro/WP-Trouble.pdf ; and Joseph E.

Romer，“宏观经济学的麻烦”，2016 年 9 月，https://paulromer.net/the-trouble-with-macro/WP-Trouble.pdf；和约瑟夫·E.

Stiglitz, "Where Modern Macroeconomic Went Wrong ," Oxford Review of Economic Policy , vol. 34, iss.1-2 (Spring-Summer 2018), pp.

斯蒂格利茨，“现代宏观经济出了问题的地方”，《牛津经济政策评论》，卷。 34，iss.1-2（2018 年春夏），第 34 页

70-106, at https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article/34/1-2/70/4781816 .

70-106，网址：https://academic.oup.com/oxrep/article/34/1-2/70/4781816。

These criticisms reflect, in part, concerns that the stringent assumptions of the model are not consistent with observed behavior.

这些批评在一定程度上反映了人们对模型严格假设与观察到的行为不一致的担忧。

This model is commonly referred to as a Solow growth model, although it can be modified to allow supply side responses such as labor supply that is responsive to the wage rate or consumption that is responsive to the interest rate.

该模型通常被称为索洛增长模型，尽管可以对其进行修改以允许供应方做出反应，例如对工资率做出反应的劳动力供应或对利率做出反应的消费。

The growth version of the model connected with a DSGE model is a Ramsey model, again where the economy is composed of a single, infinitely lived, perfectly informed, and optimizing agent.

与 DSGE 模型相关的模型的增长版本是 Ramsey 模型，其中经济体同样由单个、无限生命、完全知情且优化的代理组成。

Related to the Ramsey model is the life cycle model, where individuals live finite lifetimes and generations die and are born, but are still agents characterized by perfect foresight.

与拉姆齐模型相关的是生命周期模型，其中个体的寿命有限，几代人死亡和出生，但仍然是具有完美远见的代理人。

See Menzie D.

参见孟齐·D.

Chinn, "Notes on Modern Monetary Theory for Paleo-Keynesians," Spring 2019, at https://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~mchinn/mmt_add2.pdf ; Nick Rowe, "Reverse-Engineering the MMT Model," A Worthwhile Canadian Initiative (blog), 2011, at https://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2011/04/reverse-engineering-the-mmt-model.html ; and Victoria Chick, The Theory of Monetary Policy , vol. 5 (London: Gray-Mills Publishing Limited, 1973).

Chinn，“古凯恩斯主义现代货币理论笔记”，2019 年春季，https://www.ssc.wisc.edu/~mchinn/mmt_add2.pdf ； Nick Rowe，“对 MMT 模型进行逆向工程”，一项有价值的加拿大倡议（博客），2011 年，网址为 https://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2011/04/reverse-engineering-the-mmt-model.html；和维多利亚·奇克，《货币政策理论》，卷。 5（伦敦：格雷米尔斯出版有限公司，1973 年）。

The first two of these resources are available online and provide graphical presentations.

这些资源中的前两个可在线获取并提供图形演示。

MMT adherents have expressed caution in analyzing the theory through this macroeconomic framework, due to concerns that it does not accurately capture economic activity with unique financial flows (present in markets like housing).

现代货币理论的追随者在通过这一宏观经济框架分析该理论时表示谨慎，因为担心它无法准确捕捉具有独特金融流动（存在于房地产等市场）的经济活动。

There are also concerns about the treatment of income that doesn't fit cleanly into such a "stock and flow" model, like unrealized capital gains—although that activity would be recorded as income when realized, it is possible that it influences household behavior when held.

人们还担心收入的处理方式并不完全适合这种“存量和流量”模型，例如未实现的资本收益——尽管该活动在实现时将被记录为收入，但它可能会影响家庭行为。

Mainstream economists have made similar criticisms of the limitations of this basic macroeconomic structure.

主流经济学家也对这一基本宏观经济结构的局限性提出了类似的批评。

It is unclear how accounting for that activity would affect the core findings of the model presented here.

目前尚不清楚对该活动的解释将如何影响此处提出的模型的核心发现。

This view appears to be based on the idea that when the economy is below capacity, firms are unwilling to make investments because of lower interest rates (although whether that argument should apply to investments in owner-occupied housing is not clear).

这种观点似乎基于以下观点：当经济低于产能时，企业由于利率较低而不愿进行投资（尽管这一论点是否适用于自住住房的投资尚不清楚）。

See Bill Mitchell, "Why Investment Expenditure is Insensitive to Monetary Policy," at http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=31206 .

请参阅 Bill Mitchell，“为什么投资支出对货币政策不敏感”，网址为：http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=31206。

See, for example, M.

例如，参见 M.

Forstater and W.

福斯特和 W.

Mosler, "The Natural Rate of Interest is Zero," Journal of Economic Issues, vol. 39, no. 535 (2005), at http://www.moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/07/natural-rate-is-zero.PDF ; and Bill Mitchell, "The Natural Rate of Interest is Zero," August 29, 2009, at http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=4656 .

莫斯勒，“自然利率为零”，经济问题杂志，卷。 39，没有。 535 (2005)，http://www.moslereconomics.com/wp-content/graphs/2009/07/natural-rate-is-zero.PDF；和 Bill Mitchell，“自然利率为零”，2009 年 8 月 29 日，网址：http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=4656。

Examples of such literature include John Y.

此类文献的例子包括 John Y.

Campbell and Robert J.

坎贝尔和罗伯特 J.

Shiller, "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Review of Financial Studies , vol. 1 (1988), 195; and John Faust et.

希勒，“股息价格比以及未来股息和贴现因素的预期”，《金融研究评论》，卷。 1（1988），195；和约翰·福斯特等。

al., "The High-Frequency Response of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to Macroeconomic Announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics , vol. 54 (2006), 1051.

等人，“汇率和利率对宏观经济公告的高频响应”，货币经济学杂志，卷。 54（2006），1051。

Victoria Chick, The Theory of Monetary Policy , vol. 5, (London: Gray-Mills Publishing Limited, 1973).

维多利亚·奇克，货币政策理论，卷。 5，（伦敦：格雷米尔斯出版有限公司，1973 年）。

Under an MMT model with no institutional constraints, the federal government may not need to sell bonds in all cases.

在没有制度约束的现代货币理论模型下，联邦政府可能不需要在所有情况下都出售债券。

However, the statutory independence of the Federal Reserve and Treasury (discussed further below) would require federal bond issuances under current law.

然而，美联储和财政部的法定独立性（下文进一步讨论）将需要根据现行法律发行联邦债券。

Though the Federal Reserve can and does purchase Treasury Securities, the Federal Reserve Act (12 U.S.C.

尽管美联储可以并且确实购买国债，但《联邦储备法》(12 U.S.C.

§226) stipulates that it may only do so in the open market.

§226）规定只能在公开市场上这样做。

For more information on this process, see Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, "Why Doesn't the Federal Reserve Just Buy Treasury Securities Directly from the U.S. Treasury?," August 2, 2013, at https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money_12851.htm .

有关此过程的更多信息，请参阅美联储系统理事会，“为什么美联储不直接从美国财政部购买国债？”，2013 年 8 月 2 日，网址：https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money_12851.htm。

See David Beers and Jamshid Mavalwalla, The BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database Revisited: What's New in 2018?

请参阅 David Beers 和 Jamshid Mavalwalla，《The BoC-BoE Sovereign Default Database Revisited: What's New in 2018?》

, Bank of Canada, Staff Working Paper 2018-30, at https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/swp2018-30.pdf .

，加拿大银行，2018-30 年员工工作文件，网址：https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/swp2018-30.pdf。

For more information, see CRS Report R44704, Has the U.S. Government Ever "Defaulted"?

欲了解更多信息，请参阅 CRS 报告 R44704，美国政府是否曾“违约”？

, by D.

，由 D.

Andrew Austin.

安德鲁·奥斯汀.

U.S. Treasury, "Debt Position and Activity Report, September 2019," September 30, 2019, at https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debtposactrpt.htm .

美国财政部，“2019 年 9 月债务状况和活动报告”，2019 年 9 月 30 日，网址：https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debtposactrpt.htm。

World Bank, "Interest Payments (Current LCU)—Greece), accessed October 11, 2019, at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.XPN.INTP.CN?locations=GR&view=chart .

世界银行，“利息支付（现价本币单位）——希腊），2019 年 10 月 11 日访问，网址：https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.XPN.INTP.CN?locations=GR&view=chart。

Congressional Budget Office, The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook , June 25, 2019, at https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55331 .

国会预算办公室，《2019 年长期预算展望》，2019 年 6 月 25 日，网址：https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55331。

For more information on the Federal Reserve, see CRS In Focus IF10054, Introduction to Financial Services: The Federal Reserve , by Marc Labonte.

有关美联储的更多信息，请参阅 CRS In Focus IF10054，金融服务简介：美联储，作者：Marc Labonte。

Examples of political influences on fiscal policy responses can be found in Andrea Louise Campbell and Michael W.

政治影响财政政策反应的例子可以在 Andrea Louise Campbell 和 Michael W.

Sances, "State Fiscal Policy During the Great Recession: Budgetary Impacts and Policy Responses," The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science , vol. 650 (November 2013), p.

桑塞斯，“大衰退期间的国家财政政策：预算影响和政策反应”，《美国政治与社会科学院年鉴》，卷。 650（2013 年 11 月），第 65 页。

252.

National Bureau of Economic Research, "US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions," September 2010, at https://www.nber.org/cycles.html .

国家经济研究局，“美国商业周期扩张和收缩”，2010 年 9 月，网址：https://www.nber.org/cycles.html。

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

联邦储备系统理事会。

"The Great Recession: December 2007-June2009," November 2013, at https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great_recession_of_200709 .

“大衰退：2007 年 12 月至 2009 年 6 月”，2013 年 11 月，https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great_recession_of_200709。

For further discussion of this relationship, see Stephen Slivinski, "The Evolution of Fed Independence," Region Focus (Fall 2009), Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, p.

有关这种关系的进一步讨论，请参阅 Stephen Slivinski，“美联储独立性的演变”，区域焦点（2009 年秋季），里士满联邦储备银行，第 17 页。

For more information on this topic, see CRS Report RL30354, Monetary Policy and the Federal Reserve: Current Policy and Conditions , by Marc Labonte.

有关此主题的更多信息，请参阅 CRS 报告 RL30354，货币政策和美联储：当前政策和条件，作者：Marc Labonte。

中文为机器翻译，仅供参考。