A Tax-Side Agenda for Addressing US Budget Deficits
Om 2026, the federal government is on track to spend $7.4 trillion, and $1.9 trillion–about one-quarter of the total–will be newly borrowed money.
到 2026 年，联邦政府预计将支出 7.4 万亿美元，其中 1.9 万亿美元（约占总额的四分之一）将是新借的资金。
It’s one thing to have deficit spending during a pandemic or a recession, but neither situation applies here.
在大流行或经济衰退期间出现赤字支出是一回事，但这两种情况都不适用。
The accumulated federal debt owed to the public is now equal to 100% of US GDP, approximately matching the previous high set during spending and borrowing to finance World War II, and headed higher.
目前，累积的对公众的联邦债务相当于美国 GDP 的 100%，大约相当于二战期间支出和借贷期间创下的最高水平，并且还在继续上升。
Serious politicians would put some proposals on the table for debate for spending cuts and tax increases to reduce the gap.
严肃的政治家会提出一些关于削减开支和增加税收以缩小差距的建议进行辩论。
Kimberly Clausing and Natasha Sarin seek to launch a discussion for the tax proposal side of the debate in “ $15 Trillion on the Table in 2029: Ordinary Taxes to Meet an Extraordinary Fiscal Moment .” The essay will appear in a book forthcoming later this year, In The American Economy in a New Era , edited by Melissa S.
金伯利·克劳辛 (Kimberly Clausing) 和娜塔莎·萨林 (Natasha Sarin) 寻求在“2029 年桌面上的 15 万亿美元：普通税收来应对特殊财政时刻”的辩论中就税收提案方面展开讨论。这篇文章将出现在今年晚些时候出版的一本书《新时代的美国经济》中，由 Melissa S.
Kearney and Luke Pardue, and published by the Aspen Institute.
科尔尼和卢克·帕杜，由阿斯彭研究所出版。
Rather than grapping with the challenges and mechanics of attempting to create a new tax, like a wealth tax, Clausing and Sarin instead on adjustments to existing taxes.
克劳辛和沙林没有应对尝试创建财富税等新税种的挑战和机制，而是对现有税种进行调整。
However, the taxes they propose will have more effect on those with higher incomes and wealth.
然而，他们提出的税收将对收入和财富较高的人产生更大的影响。
They offer five “buckets” of tax revenue.
他们提供五个“桶”的税收收入。
Bucket 1: Reforming corporate tax to meet the challenges of a modern global economy
第一个目标：改革公司税以应对现代全球经济的挑战
The corporate rate could be raised for the largest-profit taxpayers to 27 percent for fewer than 2 percent of firms, with a small surtax of 2.7 percentage points for fewer than 0.5 percent of firms.
对于利润最大的纳税人，不到 2% 的企业，企业税率可以提高到 27%；对不到 0.5% 的企业，征收 2.7 个百分点的小额附加税。
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The corporate tax base can be broadened to better tax pure profits …
可以扩大公司税基，以更好地对纯利润征税……
Full expensing—which allows investors to completely write off investments as they occur rather than taking deductions as the investment depreciates—achieves the goal of moving the corporate tax to a tax on pure profits, since it does not distort investment decisions in the expensed assets.
全额费用化——允许投资者在投资发生时完全冲销，而不是在投资贬值时进行扣除——实现了将公司税转变为对纯利润征税的目标，因为它不会扭曲费用化资产的投资决策。
However, if expensing is allowed, it should be coupled with a complete disallowance of interest deductions.
然而，如果允许费用化，则应完全禁止利息扣除。
Otherwise, debt-financed investments receive a net subsidy due to the tax system; some investments are undertaken post-tax that would not be profitable absent tax considerations.
否则，债务融资投资将因税收制度而获得净补贴；有些投资是在税后进行的，如果没有税收考虑，这些投资将无法盈利。
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The US international minimum tax regime could be strengthened by including a much stronger country-by-country tax on foreign income.
美国的国际最低税制可以通过对外国收入征收更严格的国别税来得到加强。
Indeed, higher headline corporate rates would need to be coupled with serious international tax reforms to prevent increased international profit shifting from eroding the corporate tax base.
事实上，更高的总体企业税率需要与认真的国际税收改革相结合，以防止国际利润转移的增加侵蚀企业税基。
[A]udit rates for high-income taxpayers collapsed from 16.5 percent to 2 percent between 2010 and 2021.
[A]2010 年至 2021 年间，高收入纳税人的审计率从 16.5% 降至 2%。
The tax gap has grown to an estimated $870 billion per year, or 2.7 percent of GDP, and the true number is almost certainly larger, given the difficulty of measuring noncompliance at the top of the income distribution.
税收缺口估计已增至每年 8,700 亿美元，占 GDP 的 2.7%，考虑到衡量收入分配顶层的违规行为的难度，实际数字几乎肯定更大。
Sin taxes have historically referred to taxes on goods like alcohol and cigarettes, where the policy goal was both to collect some revenue and also to discourage the behavior.
罪恶税历史上指的是对酒精和香烟等商品征税，其政策目标既是收取一些收入，也是阻止这种行为。
Clausing and Sarin suggest new sin taxes on gambling and on carbon emissions.
克劳辛和沙林建议对赌博和碳排放征收新的罪恶税。
To help curb these kinds of negative effects, we include a gambling tax of 5 percent on the value of sports wagers; we pair this tax with one on prediction market winnings.
为了帮助遏制此类负面影响，我们对体育博彩价值征收 5% 的赌博税；我们将这项税与预测市场奖金的税结合起来。
This gambling levywould generate more than $130 billion over the 2030–2039 budget window.
这项赌博税将在 2030 年至 2039 年的预算窗口内产生超过 1300 亿美元的收入。
One could also extend sin taxes to other forms of gambling.
人们还可以将罪恶税扩大到其他形式的赌博。
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The excise tax that raises the most revenue in our suite of options is a tax on carbon emissions.
在我们的一系列选择中，增加收入最多的消费税是碳排放税。
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One approach would be a carbon fee that begins at $40 per metric ton, rises by 5 percent in real terms over the budget window, and then increases with inflation thereafter.
一种方法是碳排放费从每吨 40 美元开始，在预算窗口内按实际价格上涨 5%，然后随着通货膨胀而增加。
This carbon fee is more modest than many legislative proposals that have been floated in US congressional bills …
这笔碳费比美国国会法案中提出的许多立法提案更为温和……
The fee is also lower than that used in many developed economies, including the European Union and Canada …
该费用也低于许多发达经济体使用的费用，包括欧盟和加拿大……
Clausing and Sarin propose that US income tax brackets be returned to 1997 levels–that is, a period of rapid economic growth just before the US federal budget was actually in surplus for a couple of years.
克劳辛和萨林建议美国所得税级数恢复到 1997 年的水平，即美国联邦预算实际上出现几年盈余之前的经济快速增长时期。
Clausing and Sarin propose a package of changes listed here, together which how much revenue would be raised by each in 2030.
Clausing 和 Sarin 提出了此处列出的一揽子变更方案，其中包括到 2030 年各自将筹集多少收入。
An obvious question is why the authors focus on the tax side.
一个明显的问题是为什么作者关注税收方面。
What about some proposed spending cuts?
一些拟议的支出削减怎么样？
One answer is that the authors study tax policy, so they are writing about what they jknow.
一个答案是作者研究税收政策，因此他们写的是他们所知道的内容。
Another answer is that the US has relatively high debt and relatively low tax revenues.
另一个答案是，美国的债务相对较高，税收收入相对较低。
(The number below include not just national-level debt and taxes, but also lower levels of government.)
（以下数字不仅包括国家级债务和税收，还包括下级政府。）
A final answer is that the authors are certainly open to considering an equivalent set of proposals for spending cuts.
最终的答案是，作者当然愿意考虑一套等效的削减开支提案。
Their tax increases total about 3.3% of GDP, or about $1 trillion in the context of the current US GDP.
他们的增税总额约占 GDP 的 3.3%，按照美国目前的 GDP 计算，即约 1 万亿美元。
The big categories of federal spending are Medicare, Social Security, defense, and interest payments on past debt.
联邦支出的主要类别是医疗保险、社会保障、国防和过去债务的利息支付。
If defaulting on past debt by cutting interest payments is off the table, then it is a heavy lift to propose $1 trillion in spending cuts at a time when an aging population is pushing up Social Security and Medicare spending and an unruly world order seems to call for sustained defense spending.
如果通过削减利息支付来拖欠过去的债务是不可能的，那么在人口老龄化推高社会保障和医疗保险支出、难以驾驭的世界秩序似乎需要持续的国防支出之际，提出削减 1 万亿美元的支出将是一个沉重的负担。
Some subset of these tax increases would be a heavy lift as well.
这些增税的一部分也将是一个沉重的负担。
But when the federal government is borrowing one-quarter of what it spends, some real and dramatic changes are needed.
但当联邦政府借债占其支出的四分之一时，就需要进行一些真正的、戏剧性的改变。
The post A Tax-Side Agenda for Addressing US Budget Deficits first appeared on Conversable Economist .
解决美国预算赤字的税收方面议程一文首次出现在《Conversable Economist》上。