The Incoherence of the Trump Tariff Announcements

Sometimes you see a figure that makes you uncertain whether to laugh or cry, so you do a little of both.

有时你看到一个让你不知道该笑还是该哭的人物，所以你会两者都做一点。

The Global Linkages Lab at Brown University–specifically, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Can Soylu, and Muhammed A.

布朗大学全球联系实验室，特别是 Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan、Can Soylu 和 Muhammed A.

Yildirim–have sought to track down “every occasion on which the President attached a number to a US tariff, whatever the channel: speeches, interviews and press gaggles, Truth Social posts, executive orders and proclamations, and White House fact sheets and statements.” Some announcements were made more than once in different formats, so their list from January 21, 2025 up to the present includes 749 total such statements, covering 341 separate tariff changes.

耶尔德勒姆——试图追查“总统对美国关税附加数字的每一个场合，无论通过什么渠道：演讲、采访和媒体报道、真相社会帖子、行政命令和公告，以及白宫情况说明书和声明。”有些公告以不同的形式多次发布，因此从 2025 年 1 月 21 日至今，他们的清单总共包括 749 条此类声明，涵盖 341 项单独的关税变化。

They call it TiRADE, for “Tariff Rates in Announcements, Declarations, and Events.” Blue dots show threatened or announced tariffs, green dots show implemented tariffs.

他们称之为 TiRADE，意为“公告、声明和事件中的关税率”。蓝点表示威胁或宣布的关税，绿点表示已实施的关税。

Details behind the figure and sources for the statements are all available at the TiRADE website.

图表背后的详细信息和声明来源均可在 TiRADE 网站上找到。

Here, I just want to emphasize the uncertainty and instability of it all.

在这里，我只想强调一下这一切的不确定性和不稳定性。

I would probably disagree with an overall plan to raise tariffs in broad ways, and I would have to think through the implication of raising tariffs in narrow and targeted ways on a case-by-case basis.

我可能不同意广泛提高关税的总体计划，并且我必须根据具体情况仔细考虑以狭隘和有针对性的方式提高关税的影响。

But this figure makes it transparent that the Trump-dictated US tariff policy since early 2025 has not been a coherent plan, but rather a sputtering and erratic seat-of-the-pants shambles.

但这个数字清楚地表明，特朗普自 2025 年初以来制定的美国关税政策并不是一个连贯的计划，而是一种凭感觉的、不稳定的混乱。

The post The Incoherence of the Trump Tariff Announcements first appeared on Conversable Economist .

特朗普关税公告的不连贯性首先出现在《Conversable Economist》杂志上。