How to Keep Global Agricultural Output Rising
Global population is expected to keep rising for the next 50-60 years, because it will take awhile for the demographic force of declining birthrates to overcome the life expectancies.
预计未来50-60年全球人口将持续增长，因为出生率下降的人口力量需要一段时间才能克服预期寿命。
In addition, the world still has lots of very poor people: for example, about 800 million people around the world live below the World Bank extreme poverty line of $3/day, and of course hundreds of millions more are not far above that line.
此外，世界上仍然有很多非常贫困的人口：例如，全世界大约有8亿人生活在世界银行每天3美元的极端贫困线以下，当然还有数亿人生活在该线之上不远。
With a rising world population, and one where we hope the standard of living for the poorest will be rising, more food production will be needed.
随着世界人口的不断增长，以及我们希望最贫困人口的生活水平不断提高，将需要更多的粮食生产。
So how is the world doing in this area?
那么世界在这一领域的表现如何呢？
The Global Agricultural Productivity initiative at Virgina Tech University,tackles the big questions of global agricultural productivity in the 2026 GAP Report, Restarting Growth: The Role of Regenerative Agriculture in Productivity Growth and Profitability , with a team effort led by Chellie Maples.
弗吉尼亚理工大学的全球农业生产力计划在 Chellie Maples 领导的团队努力下，在 2026 年 GAP 报告《重启增长：再生农业在生产力增长和盈利能力中的作用》中解决了全球农业生产力的重大问题。
Here’s a picture to set the stage:
这是一张设置舞台的图片：
Growth in total agricultural output can come from several sources: more land, more irrigation, more intensive use of inputs (labor, materials, and capital), and increased productivity given the same amounts of land, irrigation, and inputs (say, from improved farming practices, better weather information, improved seeds, and so on).
农业总产出的增长可以来自多个来源：更多的土地、更多的灌溉、更密集地使用投入（劳动力、材料和资本），以及在相同数量的土地、灌溉和投入的情况下提高生产力（例如，通过改进的耕作方式、更好的天气信息、改良的种子等）。
To do these calculations, gains in agricultural output that cannot be attributed to measurable factors like land, irrigation, and inputs are then ascribed to productivity gains.
为了进行这些计算，农业产出的增长不能归因于土地、灌溉和投入等可衡量因素，然后将其归因于生产率的增长。
In the 1960s, most growth of agriculture came from more intensive use of inputs.
20 世纪 60 年代，农业的大部分增长来自于投入品的更集约化使用。
By the 1990s and early 2000s, most of the growth of agricultural output was coming from producitvity gains, with very little coming from land expansion or additional inputs.
到 20 世纪 90 年代和 2000 年代初，农业产出的增长大部分来自生产率的提高，很少来自土地扩张或额外投入。
But since about 2011, growth of agricultural output has slumped.
但自2011年左右以来，农业产量增速下滑。
Productivity gains are way down, although expansion of land and inputs have made up some of the difference.
尽管土地和投入的扩张弥补了部分差异，但生产率的增长却大幅下降。
In a nutshell, this is global challenge of finding ecologically-sound ways of increasing agricultural output.
简而言之，这是寻找生态友好的方式来增加农业产量的全球挑战。
Of course, these factors vary by region.
当然，这些因素因地区而异。
But even in the areas with relatively rapid growth in agricultural output, that growth is being driven by additional inputs (like South Asia) or by additional land (sub-Saharan Africa).
但即使在农业产出增长相对较快的地区，这种增长也是由额外投入（如南亚）或额外土地（撒哈拉以南非洲）推动的。
Part of the answer here is to improve productivity growth in agriculture, especially in the regions where economic and population growth are creating stresses on the food supply.
部分答案是提高农业生产率的增长，特别是在经济和人口增长对粮食供应造成压力的地区。
I’ve argued in the past for a rise in global R&D spending in agriculture , especially focused on lower-income areas of the world.
我过去曾主张增加全球农业研发支出，特别是关注世界低收入地区。
(Also, here’s a look at the long-term prospects for agricultural productivity growth from about 25 years back by Vernon Ruttan, a preeminent agricultural economist.
（此外，这里还介绍了杰出农业经济学家弗农·鲁坦（Vernon Ruttan）对大约 25 年前农业生产率增长的长期前景的展望。
)
）
The particular focus of this year’s GAP report is on “regenerative agriculture,” defined as “a set of contextually appropriate farming and management practices and tools oriented toward improving soil and ecosystem health as a primary goal, with enhanced biodiversity, watershed function, and resilience as downstream benefits.
今年 GAP 报告的特别重点是“再生农业”，其定义为“一套适合具体情况的农业和管理实践和工具，以改善土壤和生态系统健康为主要目标，以增强生物多样性、流域功能和复原力作为下游效益。
Which practices qualify depends on local soil, climate, and production system conditions.
哪些做法符合条件取决于当地土壤、气候和生产系统条件。
This definition aligns practices, principles, and outcomes, centering ecosystem health as the mechanism through which broader gains are achieved.” In my own mind, this focus starts from the hard fact that additional inputs and land are driving growth of total agricultural output, recognizes that expanding agriculture to marginal and heavily fertilized land will have environmental tradeoffs, and then uses this lens to think about productivity gains that could minimize these environmental consequences.
这一定义将实践、原则和结果结合起来，将生态系统健康作为实现更广泛收益的机制。”在我看来，这种关注是从这样一个严峻的事实开始的：额外的投入和土地正在推动农业总产出的增长，认识到将农业扩展到边际和大量施肥的土地将产生环境权衡，然后用这个视角来思考可以最大限度地减少这些环境后果的生产力提高。
The possibilities in this area seem real, but the report is forthright in noting:
这一领域的可能性似乎是真实存在的，但报告直截了当地指出：
Regenerative agriculture (RA) has drawn growing attention, in part because its practices target the input use and natural capital depletion that the current output growth model largely depends on.
再生农业（RA）引起了越来越多的关注，部分原因是其实践针对当前产出增长模型很大程度上依赖的投入使用和自然资本消耗。
Yet the potential contribution of RA practices to TFP [total factor productivity] growth has, thus far, only been a conceptual claim rather than an empirical finding.
然而，迄今为止，RA 实践对 TFP（全要素生产率）增长的潜在贡献只是一种概念性主张，而非实证发现。
No study in the current literature directly measures changes in TFP growth attributable to RA.
目前的文献中没有研究直接测量 RA 导致的 TFP 增长的变化。
The post How to Keep Global Agricultural Output Rising first appeared on Conversable Economist .
《如何保持全球农业产量增长》一文首次出现在《Conversable Economist》杂志上。