How rural economic woes imperil GOP majorities
Campaigns & Elections Congress Political Parties Political Polarization Presidency Public Opinion
竞选与选举 国会 政党 政治两极分化 总统选举 公众舆论
Of all the unexpected developments in the 2026 midterm election, Republican weakness in the country’s heartland may be the most surprising.
在 2026 年中期选举的所有意外事态发展中，共和党在美国中心地带的疲软可能是最令人惊讶的。
In 2024, President Trump carried Ohio by 11 points, Iowa by 13, Kansas by 16, and Nebraska by 20.
2024 年，特朗普总统将俄亥俄州领先 11 个百分点，爱荷华州领先 13 个百分点，堪萨斯州领先 16 个百分点，内布拉斯加州领先 20 个百分点。
Now, incumbent Sen.
现在，现任参议员。
Jon Husted (R-Ohio) is trailing former Sen.
乔恩·赫斯特（俄亥俄州共和党人）落后于前参议员。
Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) by 3 points in Ohio while Republican Senate candidates are locked in dead heat races in Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska.
俄亥俄州民主党人谢罗德·布朗 (Sherrod Brown) 在俄亥俄州领先 3 个百分点，而共和党参议员候选人在爱荷华州、堪萨斯州和内布拉斯加州的竞争陷入胶着状态。
While the competitiveness of these races was hard to predict even six months ago, it is easy to explain now: President Trump’s policies have put pressure on the heartland’s agricultural sector, and producers understand the link between these policies and the difficulties they are experiencing.
虽然这些种族的竞争力在六个月前就很难预测，但现在很容易解释：特朗普总统的政策给中心地带的农业部门带来了压力，生产者了解这些政策与他们正在经历的困难之间的联系。
People there increasingly think Trump has not delivered on his 2024 campaign promises to improve the rural economy.
那里的人们越来越认为特朗普没有兑现其 2024 年改善农村经济的竞选承诺。
Their woes began in April 2025, when the president imposed large tariffs on imports from just about every country on earth.
他们的困境始于 2025 年 4 月，当时总统对来自地球上几乎每个国家的进口产品征收高额关税。
China retaliated by halting its purchases of U.S. soybeans, one of the top two crops in the Midwest .
作为报复，中国停止购买美国大豆，这是中西部最主要的两种作物之一。
The cutoff lasted until late October 2025, when an agreement between the two countries committed the Chinese to resume soybean imports, although in lower amounts than before the trade war.
停产一直持续到 2025 年 10 月下旬，当时两国达成协议，承诺中国恢复大豆进口，尽管进口量低于贸易战前。
But the damage was done : Compared to 2024, Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans fell by 73% in 2025, and preliminary results indicate only a partial recovery in 2026.
但损害已经造成：与2024年相比，2025年中国对美国大豆的采购量下降了73%，初步结果显示2026年仅部分恢复。
And the news is not getting any better.
消息并没有好转。
In the most recent round of U.S.-China trade talks, soybeans were excluded from the list of agricultural products scheduled for relief from Chinese tariffs.
在最近一轮的中美贸易谈判中，大豆被排除在中国计划减免关税的农产品清单之外。
The trade war has affected the entire range of crops.
贸易战影响了所有农作物。
Chinese imports of American wheat and corn nearly ended in 2025, and beef imports fell by 59%.
2025年中国对美国小麦和玉米的进口接近结束，牛肉进口下降59%。
Overall, the rupture of trade relations between the United States and China reduced agricultural exports by nearly $15 billion between March 2025 and February 2026—about $1.2 billion each in Iowa and Illinois, with losses in other Midwestern states such as Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Missouri, Indiana, and Ohio ranging from roughly $500 million to $900 million.
总体而言，2025年3月至2026年2月期间，美国和中国之间贸易关系的破裂使农产品出口减少了近150亿美元，其中爱荷华州和伊利诺伊州各减少了约12亿美元，堪萨斯州、内布拉斯加州、明尼苏达州、密苏里州、印第安纳州和俄亥俄州等其他中西部州的损失约为5亿美元至9亿美元。
Just as the October 2025 U.S.-China agreement began to ease the pressure on American farmers, the war with Iran inflicted another round of damage.
就在2025年10月的美中协议开始缓解美国农民的压力时，与伊朗的战争造成了另一轮损害。
As prices for crude oil soared, the agricultural sector suffered disproportionately.
随着原油价格飙升，农业部门遭受了不成比例的损失。
The average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline rose in 2026 from $2.91 to $4.36 between February and October, hitting rural residents, not all of whom are farmers but who drive longer distances than other Americans, especially hard.
2026 年 2 月至 10 月期间，每加仑普通汽油的平均成本从 2.91 美元上涨至 4.36 美元，这对农村居民造成了打击，他们并不都是农民，但他们比其他美国人开车的距离更长，尤其辛苦。
Worse, diesel fuel, which powers more than 75% of most agricultural equipment , soared during this period from $3.71 to $6.20.
更糟糕的是，为大多数农业设备提供动力的柴油燃料在此期间从 3.71 美元飙升至 6.20 美元。
The price of fertilizer also rose across the board, with urea (which the Middle East exports in large quantities ) the hardest hit .
化肥价格也全线上涨，其中尿素（中东大量出口）受到的打击最为严重。
This year, 70% of American farmers report that they can no longer afford as much fertilizer as they need.
今年，70% 的美国农民表示，他们再也买不起所需的肥料。
Finally, farmers need short-term loans to finance annual operations, and long-term loans to purchase land and equipment.
最后，农民需要短期贷款来资助年度经营，并需要长期贷款来购买土地和设备。
As agricultural debt continues its relentless rise , the surge in interest rates has hit farm balance sheets hard .
随着农业债务持续不断上升，利率飙升对农业资产负债表造成了沉重打击。
Compared to 2024, farm bankruptcies in 2025 rose by 46%, and analysts predict that the pace of bankruptcies will accelerate further in 2026 and 2027.
与2024年相比，2025年农场破产数量上升了46%，分析师预测2026年和2027年破产步伐将进一步加快。
Against this backdrop of declining agricultural exports, rising input costs for farm operations, and increasing borrowing costs, it is not surprising that the mood of farmers and rural communities is souring .
在农产品出口下降、农业经营投入成本上升、借贷成本上升的背景下，农民和农村社区的情绪恶化也就不足为奇了。
In the summer of 2025, 74% of farmers surveyed thought that the country was on the right track.
2025年夏天，74%的受访农民认为该国正走在正确的轨道上。
By the fall of 2026, the “right track” share had fallen to 48%, while the share of farmers who thought the country was on the wrong track had doubled from 26% to 52%.
到 2026 年秋季，“正确道路”的比例已降至 48%，而认为国家走在错误道路上的农民比例则翻了一番，从 26% 增至 52%。
Recent survey research suggests that 57% of rural voters disapprove of President Trump’s economic policies.
最近的调查研究表明，57% 的农村选民不赞成特朗普总统的经济政策。
Still, rural voters have reasons—including their disapproval of Democrats’ stances on social issues —not to switch their support to Democratic candidates.
尽管如此，农村选民仍有理由——包括他们不赞成民主党在社会问题上的立场——不转而支持民主党候选人。
Some will, of course.
当然，有些人会。
But it seems more likely that rural voters who are disappointed with the president’s performance will choose to stay home this November .
但对总统表现感到失望的农村选民今年11月更有可能选择留在家里。
If so, the competition for Senate seats in the farm belt will remain close right up to Election Day.
如果是这样，农场地带参议院席位的竞争将在选举日之前继续激烈进行。
A Democrat last won a Senate race in Iowa in 2008 ; Nebraska, in 2006 ; and Kansas, in 1932 .
民主党上次赢得参议员竞选是在 2008 年的爱荷华州。内布拉斯加州，2006 年；和堪萨斯州，1932 年。
If discontented rural Republicans stay home this November, these trends could be disrupted, with Democrats or, in Nebraska’s case, an independent making history.
如果不满的农村共和党人今年 11 月留在家里，这些趋势可能会被民主党或内布拉斯加州的独立人士创造历史而打乱。
If these Republicans go to the polls, however reluctantly, the party’s candidates will probably prevail, but their reduced margins of victory could persuade Democratic Party leaders to increase their rural investment in 2028.
如果这些共和党人去投票，无论多么不情愿，该党的候选人可能会获胜，但他们的胜利幅度缩小可能会说服民主党领导人在 2028 年增加农村投资。