Parenting in a fertility crisis
A growing number of American adults don’t expect to ever have children.
越来越多的美国成年人不希望生孩子。
What is driving this change?
是什么推动了这一变化？
And what does it mean for society (and for those who are parenting) when there are fewer parents and children around?
当周围的父母和孩子越来越少时，这对社会（以及那些为人父母的人）意味着什么？
In this episode of No More Sidewalks , host Abby McCloskey speaks with Christine Emba, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, about the massive shifts in sex and fertility over the last generation, plus cultural shifts, new fertility technologies, and what policymakers are promising—from cost-free birth to baby bonuses.
在《不再人行道》的这一集中，主持人艾比·麦克洛斯基与美国企业研究所高级研究员克里斯汀·恩巴谈论了上一代人性别和生育率的巨大变化，以及文化转变、新的生育技术，以及政策制定者的承诺——从免费生育到婴儿奖金。
Abby M.
艾比·M。
McCloskey is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion and the Dallas Morning News .
麦克洛斯基是《彭博社观点》和《达拉斯晨报》的专栏作家。
She is a nonresident fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution.
她是布鲁金斯学会经济研究的非常驻研究员。
She is founder and principal of McCloskey Policy LLC, a research and consulting firm serving business and political leaders across the country.
她是 McCloskey Policy LLC 的创始人兼负责人，该公司是一家为全国各地的商业和政治领导人提供服务的研究和咨询公司。
Christine Emba is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where her work focuses on gender and sexuality, feminism, masculinity, youth culture, and social norms.
Christine Emba 是美国企业研究所 (AEI) 的高级研究员，她的工作重点是性别和性、女权主义、男性气质、青年文化和社会规范。
She is concurrently a contributing writer at The New York Times and a senior fellow at the Georgetown University Initiative on Catholic Social Thought and Public Life.
她同时是《纽约时报》的特约撰稿人和乔治城大学天主教社会思想和公共生活倡议的高级研究员。
Ms. Emba is a contributing editor at Comment magazine, a board member at the American Institute for Boys and Men, and an editor-at-large at Wisdom of Crowds .
Emba 女士是《Comment》杂志的特约编辑、美国男孩和男人研究所的董事会成员以及《Wisdom of Crowds》的特约编辑。
She is the author of Rethinking Sex: A Provocation (2022).
她是《重新思考性：挑衅》（2022）的作者。
People are worried both about whether they can have children, whether they can afford children, and whether the lives that said children might lead will actually be good.
人们担心自己是否能生孩子，是否能养得起孩子，以及孩子可能过的生活是否真的美好。
Welcome to No More Sidewalks , where we talk about parenting today.
欢迎来到“不再人行道”，今天我们在这里谈论育儿。
I’m Abby McCloskey.
我是艾比·麦克洛斯基。
Making babies has never been more complicated or rare.
生孩子从未如此复杂或罕见。
The major fertility story is that fewer people are opting into having children at all.
主要的生育问题是选择生孩子的人越来越少。
Never before has human civilization decided to shrink itself like this voluntarily.
人类文明从来没有像现在这样自愿缩小自己的规模。
But what’s driving it?
但是什么在推动它呢？
We know that fewer people are dating and having sex.
我们知道约会和做爱的人越来越少。
Marriage rates, which are highly correlated to child-rearing, are down, and there are seemingly new challenges to fertility with sperm counts dropping and older parents and rising miscarriage rates.
与抚养孩子高度相关的结婚率下降了，随着精子数量下降、父母年老以及流产率上升，生育能力似乎面临新的挑战。
And then there’s the ability to de-link sex from procreation with increasingly widespread use of IVF, continued high rates of abortion, and pornography on demand.
随着体外受精的日益广泛使用、堕胎率持续居高不下以及色情内容的需求，性与生育脱钩的能力也随之而来。
Those who do decide to go on and have children may increasingly be designing them with embryos tested and perfected.
那些决定继续生孩子的人可能会越来越多地用经过测试和完善的胚胎来设计他们的孩子。
So what does all this mean for society, and what does it mean for those of us parenting in the middle of a fertility crisis?
那么，这一切对社会意味着什么，对我们这些在生育危机中养育子女的人来说又意味着什么呢？
Christine Emba is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
克里斯汀·恩巴 (Christine Emba) 是美国企业研究所的高级研究员。
She’s a writer at The New York Times and a senior fellow at the Georgetown University Initiative of Catholic Social Thought and Public Life.
她是《纽约时报》的撰稿人，也是乔治城大学天主教社会思想和公共生活倡议的高级研究员。
She’s also the author of a great book called Rethinking Sex .
她也是一本名为《重新思考性》的好书的作者。
If you were going to summarize what’s going on in our fertility culture in America in a few sentences, what would you say?
如果您要用几句话来总结美国生育文化的现状，您会说什么？
A few sentences probably doesn’t do it justice, but in a word, I would say it’s concerning.
几句话可能不足以充分表达这一点，但总而言之，我想说这是令人担忧的。
As you pointed out, fertility rates are down.
正如您所指出的，生育率正在下降。
This is downstream of marriage and coupling rates being down.
这是婚姻和耦合率下降的下游。
But also, I think the mood around fertility is dampened.
而且，我认为围绕生育的情绪也受到了抑制。
People are worried both about whether they can have children, whether they can afford children, and whether the lives that said children might lead will actually be good.
人们担心自己是否能生孩子，是否能养得起孩子，以及孩子可能过的生活是否真的美好。
So it’s both psychological and material.
所以它既是心理上的，也是物质上的。
There are a lot of new things holding potential parents back.
有很多新事物阻碍了潜在的父母。
And yeah, this feels like a big step change, at least to me now as an adult and a parent, from what the fertility culture would’ve been like even 10 years ago, let alone like in the ‘90s and ‘80s in America.
是的，与 10 年前的生育文化相比，这感觉是一个巨大的变化，至少对现在作为成年人和父母的我来说是这样，更不用说像 90 年代和 80 年代的美国了。
Have you seen a big change?
你看到了很大的变化吗？
Yeah.
是的。
No, I think that’s definitely the case.
不，我认为情况肯定是这样。
One of the main things about how our sexual culture, our marriage culture, and of course our fertility culture has changed in this moment is that it is optional.
我们的性文化、婚姻文化，当然还有生育文化在此时此刻发生的变化，其中一个主要的事情就是它是可选的。
You know, even 10 to 20 years ago, it was kind of expected that the next phase of life, adulthood, looked like finding a partner, getting married, and starting a family.
你知道，即使在 10 到 20 年前，人们也期望人生的下一个阶段，即成年期，看起来像是寻找伴侣、结婚和组建家庭。
Having a family used to be the norm, what was expected of you as an adult.
拥有一个家庭曾经是常态，也是对成年人的期望。
And now, frankly, there are a lot of options.
现在，坦率地说，有很多选择。
And in some ways, you know, some reasons for this are actually good ones.
从某些方面来说，你知道，造成这种情况的一些原因实际上是好的。
Women have fully entered the workforce.
妇女已全面进入劳动力队伍。
They feel freedom to make decisions about their own lives.
他们可以自由地对自己的生活做出决定。
They feel economically strong in and of themselves, such that they don’t necessarily feel like they need to depend on a partner or have a family unit to stay solvent.
他们感觉自己的经济实力雄厚，因此他们不一定觉得自己需要依赖伴侣或家庭单位来保持偿付能力。
And I think that that is a good for women.
我认为这对女性来说是一件好事。
However, there are also these pressures pushing in on the other side.
然而，另一方面也有这些压力。
You know, the flip side of this sort of newfound freedom is this idea, a new understanding, I think, that children might be a threat to that in some way.
你知道，这种新发现的自由的另一面是这种想法，一种新的理解，我认为，孩子可能在某种程度上对这种自由构成威胁。
Instead of assuming childbirth as a norm, people are weighing having children against the opportunity costs of what they imagine their sort of free and economically strong life might look like.
人们不再将生育视为一种常态，而是权衡生孩子与他们想象中的自由且经济实力雄厚的生活的机会成本。
And then I think there are the circumstantial issues around childbirth that as we have shared more information, and frankly more complaints about family life online and in media, younger people feel more scared, I think, than they used to.
然后，我认为围绕分娩存在一些间接问题，随着我们在网上和媒体上分享更多信息，坦率地说，对家庭生活的抱怨也越来越多，我认为年轻人比以前感到更加害怕。
Well, and I want to talk about all of those fertility concerns.
好吧，我想谈谈所有这些生育问题。
But your book, Rethinking Sex , when it came out a couple years ago and I was listening to the book talk, I thought about how many of the conversations about the birth rate and fertility rate almost start too late in the conversation, and there’s something to be said about going back to what sex and relationships and marriage look like in American life right now.
但是你的书《重新思考性》几年前出版时，我在听这本书的演讲时，我想到了有多少关于出生率和生育率的对话几乎开始得太晚了，而且有一些关于回到现在美国生活中的性、人际关系和婚姻的样子的话题。
And so I was wondering for those in our audience who haven’t read your amazing book and who should, your main points of it and and why it’s kind of the gateway into this broader fertility discussion.
因此，我想知道我们的观众中那些还没有读过您的精彩著作的人以及谁应该读过您的主要观点，以及为什么它是进入更广泛的生育讨论的门户。
Yeah, thank you for bringing that up.
是的，谢谢你提出这个问题。
And yes, listeners, you should buy Rethinking Sex: A Provocation .
是的，听众们，你们应该购买《重新思考性：挑衅》。
So I wrote Rethinking Sex coming out of reporting on the Me Too movement, and the Me Too moment.
因此，我在报道“Me Too”运动和“Me Too”时刻后写下了《重新思考性》。
And I found myself, you know, compelled by the big, scary cases, the Harvey Weinsteins, et cetera.
你知道，我发现自己被哈维·韦恩斯坦案等重大而可怕的案件所吸引。
But more interested in the Me Toos that were coming from just young women, and their Me Toos were more in the vein of, “Uh, I had sex that I didn’t really want to, but I guess I thought I should.
但更感兴趣的是那些来自年轻女性的“我也是”，她们的“我也是”更多的是这样的：“呃，我发生了我并不真正想要的性行为，但我想我认为我应该这样做。
And, you know, I guess that’s normal.
而且，你知道，我想这很正常。
Me too.
我也是。
Isn’t that normal for all of us?”
这对我们所有人来说不是很正常吗？”
And my question was, is it normal for all of us?
我的问题是，这对我们所有人来说都是正常的吗？
If it is, that seems pretty bad actually.
如果是的话，那实际上看起来很糟糕。
We need to maybe revisit what our sexual landscape looks like such that this has become, you know, the average thing.
我们也许需要重新审视我们的性景观，这样这已经成为，你知道的，普通的事情。
So Rethinking Sex was, you know, an exploration of sexual culture at the time, how we’d gotten to this place where so many women said, “Me too” to these, like, bad negative experiences of sex that they didn’t want.
所以，你知道，《重新思考性》是对当时性文化的探索，我们是如何发展到如此多的女性对这些她们不想要的糟糕的负面性体验说“我也是”的。
I made kind of two main arguments in the piece.
我在这篇文章中提出了两个主要论点。
One that we had started talking about consent as though it was an ethic, as though any sex that you consented to was okay by virtue of having said “yes.”
我们开始谈论同意，就好像这是一种道德，就好像你同意的任何性行为都可以通过说“是”来实现。
And I said that actually consent is not an ethic.
我说实际上同意并不是一种道德。
You know, it’s it’s the floor.
你知道，这是地板。
It’s a legal argument, but it does not actually make sex moral or good.
这是一个法律论证，但它实际上并不能使性变得道德或美好。
And so we need to actually think about what a real ethic for good sex and good relationships would look like.
因此，我们需要真正思考良好的性和良好的关系的真正道德是什么样的。
And then also that we needed to think about and address some of the things that had changed about our sexual landscape, especially for women, that might not have been as ideal or as perfect as we thought they would be.
然后，我们还需要思考并解决我们的性环境发生的一些变化，特别是对于女性来说，这些变化可能并不像我们想象的那么理想或完美。
So for instance, the idea that having a totally private and online sex life and dating life was a good thing.
举例来说，拥有完全私密的在线性生活和约会生活是一件好事。
I argued that actually having some community involvement, you know, might’ve, might’ve been good, in fact.
我认为，事实上，实际上进行一些社区参与可能会很好。
The idea that men and women, you know, approach sex in the same ways and should be equally casual about it.
你知道，男人和女人对待性的方式是相同的，并且应该同样随意。
I argued that actually, you know, maybe maybe there’s some differences there that we need to pay attention to.
我认为实际上，你知道，也许其中存在一些我们需要注意的差异。
Well, it was interesting to me about your book, just seeing how fast things are changing because, you know, I’m a millennial.
嗯，我对你的书很感兴趣，只是看到事情变化得有多快，因为，你知道，我是千禧一代。
I think a lot of what I read of the spirit of your book was kind of encouraging women to say to be a free, fully developed member of society doesn’t mean you have to go out and have sex like a man.
我认为我读到的关于你书中精神的很多内容都是鼓励女性说，成为一个自由、充分发展的社会成员并不意味着你必须像男人一样出去做爱。
Almost encouraging a bit of a thoughtfulness and connection and return of intimacy and and all these things.
几乎鼓励了一点体贴、联系和亲密的回归以及所有这些事情。
But now it, it actually seems like there’s just been a pullback altogether from sex.
但现在看来，性生活似乎已经完全退缩了。
It’s it’s called a sex recession.
这就是所谓的性衰退。
A quarter of young people aren’t having sex at all.
四分之一的年轻人根本没有发生性行为。
And this, of course, is at one of the foundational pieces that then we get into a broader discussion about birth rates and fertility and relationships.
当然，这是我们对出生率、生育率和关系进行更广泛讨论的基础部分之一。
But when you look at the general pullback from sex, why do you think that that’s happening now?
但当你看到人们对性的普遍退缩时，你认为为什么现在会发生这种情况？
Like, in some ways, maybe people listen to you and they’re like, “We’re not going to do all the casual sex stuff anymore.
就像，在某些方面，也许人们听了你的话，他们会说，“我们不会再做所有随意的性行为了。
We’re just going to stop, and maybe that’s a good thing.”
我们会停下来，也许这是一件好事。”
Yeah.
是的。
No, that’s a great question.
不，这是一个很好的问题。
So in Rethinking Sex , actually one of the big themes running through the book is just an understanding, not even a new understanding, but actually returning to sort of the the basic understandings of feminism that came about in the second wave.
因此，在《重新思考性》中，实际上贯穿全书的一个大主题只是一种理解，甚至不是一种新的理解，而是实际上回归到第二次浪潮中出现的对女权主义的基本理解。
You know, in the ‘90s, 2000s, ‘10s, feminism became linked to this idea of sex positivity writ large.
你知道，在 20 世纪 90 年代、2000 年代、10 年代，女权主义与这种性积极性的观念联系在一起。
The idea that to be a good feminist, to be a good modern person, you had to be out there having sex with strangers, collecting all of these experiences, good or not.
这个想法是，要成为一名优秀的女权主义者，成为一名优秀的现代人，你必须与陌生人发生性关系，收集所有这些经历，无论好坏。
That, you know, to be like a real adult, you should be having casual sex even if it didn’t actually feel that great to you.
你知道，要像一个真正的成年人一样，你应该进行随意的性行为，即使它实际上对你来说感觉不太好。
And I pointed out that, you know, the original second wave feminists described sex positivity not as, you know, having sex with strangers, but exactly as you said, Abby, just women being able to be fully human in the world, including, you know, being allowed to understand their own sexual desires and needs.
我指出，你知道，最初的第二波女权主义者将性积极性描述为，你知道，不是与陌生人发生性关系，而是正如你所说，艾比，只是女性能够在世界上成为完全的人，包括，你知道，被允许了解自己的性欲和需求。
But that didn’t necessarily mean treating it casually.
但这并不一定意味着可以随意对待。
And so I argue for that older understanding of the feminist moment and sex positivity that hasn’t kind of been taken over by media and other forces.
因此，我主张对女权主义时刻和性积极性的较早理解尚未被媒体和其他力量所取代。
And I think that that did resonate with readers, that, you know, sex positivity, meaning that you had to force yourself to do things that you didn’t want to do, was not actually freeing.
我认为这确实引起了读者的共鸣，你知道，性积极性，意味着你必须强迫自己做你不想做的事情，实际上并不是自由。
[9:58] And there were enough examples, I think, in the book of people, of women and men, frankly, who had adopted various practices because they almost felt like they should.
[9:58] 我认为，坦率地说，在人们的书中，有足够多的例子，男人和女人都采取了各种做法，因为他们几乎觉得自己应该这样做。
And, in hindsight, didn’t really enjoy what they were doing.
而且，事后看来，他们并不真正喜欢他们所做的事情。
That resonated with a lot of readers.
这引起了很多读者的共鸣。
I think that maps onto kind of a broader, a broader description of our sexual landscape today.
我认为这映射了对我们今天的性景观更广泛、更广泛的描述。
I think Gen Z especially, but also millennials who are getting older, are sort of rethinking, as it were, the ideas of sex and relationships that they’d been given, and finding some of them kind of distasteful.
我认为，尤其是 Z 世代，以及逐渐变老的千禧一代，都在某种程度上重新思考他们所接受的性和关系观念，并发现其中一些观念令人反感。
I think especially in the current moment, there’s been a broader realization of the role that pornography has played in sort of the formation of how people are having sex.
我认为，尤其是在当前，人们更广泛地认识到色情作品在人们性行为方式的形成中所扮演的角色。
And for women, it’s not attractive.
而对于女性来说，这没有吸引力。
They don’t necessarily want to go into an encounter and be surprise choked or be treated as a situationship.
他们不一定想在遭遇时感到意外窒息或被视为一种情况。
For men, I think, there is both a kind of fear of approach sometimes in a post-Me Too environment, and understanding that I don’t think is totally correct, that women don’t want to be bothered by you, so don’t even bother trying.
我认为，对于男人来说，在后“我也是”的环境中，有时会害怕接近，并且理解我认为这并不完全正确，女人不想被你打扰，所以根本不用费心去尝试。
Or as a pushback from I guess a backlash to the Me Too moment, a rise in kind of manosphere discussion of sex and women that really treats women as objects who are either to be treated poorly or seen as unapproachable and unavailable to normal men.
或者作为对“我也是”时刻的抵制，一种关于性和女性的马诺圈讨论的兴起，这种讨论实际上将女性视为对象，她们要么受到恶劣对待，要么被视为对正常男性来说难以接近和无法获得。
And so men have kind of backed into their own corner too.
所以男人们也有点退缩到自己的角落了。
And so the genders are sort of separating.
因此，性别在某种程度上是分离的。
They’re both, I think, more scared of each other than they used to be, and more living in their own separate spaces.
我认为，他们都比以前更加害怕对方，并且更加生活在自己独立的空间里。
Which then, of course, means that they’re not living with each other, not forming relationships, and that leads to lower fertility.
当然，这意味着他们没有共同生活，没有建立关系，这会导致生育率降低。
Right.
正确的。
And then goes into, of course, marriage rates, which I think it’s something like less than half of American households are now led by a married couple, and this is the strongest predictor of any of going on to have kids.
当然，还有结婚率，我认为现在只有不到一半的美国家庭是由已婚夫妇领导的，这是未来生育的最有力的预测因素。
And so when you look at that drop in marriage, how much of that to you is this broader, the culture of kind of almost like a frozen out sexuality, kind of not super in as many human relationships as we are with kind of the AI chatbots or OnlyFans or kind of doing that stuff online as opposed to in a committed relationship with somebody else.
因此，当你看到婚姻的下降时，你会发现，这对你来说有多少是更广泛的，这种文化几乎就像是一种被冻结的性行为，在许多人际关系中并不像我们与人工智能聊天机器人或OnlyFans或在网上做这些事情而不是与其他人建立忠诚的关系一样。
Like, how much of that do you think is contributing then to this kind of next point on the spectrum towards having kids, which is marriage rates?
比如，你认为这对生育孩子的下一个目标（即结婚率）有多大贡献？
You’re exactly right to point that out.
你指出这一点是完全正确的。
I mean, people talk about fertility, but fertility is downstream of all these other things.
我的意思是，人们谈论生育能力，但生育能力是所有其他事物的下游。
Right?
正确的？
Having a baby, like, generally first you, you know, have to have friends such that you find someone to date.
有了孩子，通常首先你必须有朋友，这样你才能找到约会对象。
Then if you date, you form a couple and presumably get married.
然后，如果你们约会，你们就会结为夫妻，并可能结婚。
And only then are you likely to have children.
只有这样你才有可能生孩子。
And at the very beginning of the funnel, even just the sort of having friends, dating people, that group has become a lot smaller and less likely.
在漏斗的一开始，即使只是交朋友、约会的人，这个群体也变得越来越小，可能性也越来越小。
I think that some of it is due to sort of cultural shifts.
我认为部分原因是文化转变。
But I think there are just a number of factors interplaying.
但我认为有很多因素相互作用。
There’s, you know, the social angle, kind of what we were talking about, men and women, you know, the genders increasingly diverging and becoming less trusting of each other.
你知道，从社会角度来看，我们正在谈论的，男人和女人，你知道，性别越来越分歧，彼此之间的信任度越来越低。
But there’s also, I think a real material shift.
但我认为还有一个真正的实质性转变。
Again, like, when we think about Millennials and even Gen Z.
同样，当我们想到千禧一代甚至 Z 世代时。
Millennials, you know, came up having seen the 2008 recession.
你知道，千禧一代是经历过 2008 年经济衰退后崛起的。
Gen Z had many of their formative years during the COVID pandemic.
Z 世代的许多成长时期都是在新冠疫情期间度过的。
There’s a real sense of uncertainty in both generations and insecurity about their financial standing, whether they’ll be able to have the life that they thought they would have.
两代人都对自己的经济状况、是否能够过上自己想象的生活都存在真正的不确定性和不安全感。
Sort of this question about the American dream, like, “Will I have a better life financially or otherwise than my parents?”
有点像关于美国梦的问题，比如“我在经济上或其他方面会比我的父母过上更好的生活吗？”
And I think this level of insecurity has caused people to push back a lot of life moments.
我认为这种程度的不安全感导致人们推迟了很多生活时刻。
People are marrying at older and older ages.
人们结婚的年龄越来越大。
Often when you talk to young people today, they talk about like, “Well, I have to, I have to make enough money.
通常，当你今天与年轻人交谈时，他们会说：“好吧，我必须，我必须赚足够的钱。
I have to be able to afford a house.
我必须有能力买得起房子。
I have to do X, Y, and Z before I can even, you know, become stable on my own, before I can even think of getting married.” So that, yeah, that of course pushes children back.
我必须先做X、Y、Z，然后才能，你知道，在我自己变得稳定之前，在我能想到结婚之前。”所以，是的，这当然会让孩子们退缩。
And that even, I think the political and, honestly, the political climate and many young people cite the climate climate as a sort of, “I don’t really know where this world is going.
甚至，我认为政治，老实说，政治气候和许多年轻人都将气候气候视为一种“我真的不知道这个世界将走向何方。
AI has now become a factor.
人工智能现在已经成为一个因素。
I’m not sure if I want to bring children into it.” So they wait.
我不确定是否要带孩子们一起参与。”所以他们等待。
Yeah.
是的。
And I think that that can be really easily dismissed by people who say, “Look, the world’s always been unstable.” Like, can you, you know, Stone Age, like that seems really unstable and you’re bringing kids into it, so kind of everyone’s gotten too soft and just kind of just keep going on.
我认为，那些说“看，世界一直不稳定”的人很容易忽视这一点。就像，你知道吗，石器时代，这看起来真的很不稳定，你要把孩子带进去，所以每个人都变得太软弱了，只是继续前进。
But I think, and I would bring it back even before the financial crisis to 9/11, there has been a tremendous season of instability and anxiety, and I think to dismiss it is to dismiss a a core part of what’s happening in our culture with relationships.
但我认为，甚至在 9/11 金融危机之前，我们就已经经历了一个充满不稳定和焦虑的时期，我认为忽视它就是忽视我们文化中人际关系中正在发生的事情的核心部分。
No, I think that’s a really key observation.
不，我认为这是一个非常关键的观察结果。
I think sometimes pundits and perhaps even frustrated potential grandparents think that it’s, you know, it’s selfishness or something.
我认为有时专家们，甚至可能是沮丧的潜在祖父母认为这是，你知道，这是自私或其他什么。
Their kids just won’t get it together.
他们的孩子就是无法团结起来。
But I, I actually think you’re hitting on something really true.
但我实际上认为你说的是真的。
I think people do modify their expectations for themselves or try to tamp down desires if they don’t think that they’ll be able to fulfill them.
我认为，如果人们认为自己无法实现愿望，他们确实会改变对自己的期望，或者尝试抑制欲望。
Obviously this is, you know, my surmising, but I think that for many young people, it’s not that they are anti-child or, you know, don’t like the idea of a family, but exactly as you describe, it feels so impossible on different levels, whether it’s the financial level, whether it’s, you know, I’d love to have children, but I just don’t see myself finding someone who I can marry in time.
显然，这是我的猜测，但我认为，对于许多年轻人来说，并不是他们反对孩子，或者，你知道，不喜欢家庭的想法，而是正如你所描述的，在不同层面上感觉这是不可能的，无论是经济层面，无论是，你知道，我很想生孩子，但我只是不认为自己能及时找到可以结婚的人。
That, you know, they sort of state like, “Well, I don’t see it happening for me.” Not necessarily as an expression of triumph, but just as a sort of this is what it looks like.
你知道，他们会说，“好吧，我不认为这会发生在我身上。”不一定是一种胜利的表达，但就像它看起来的样子一样。
I’m not going to get my hopes up.”
我不会抱太大希望。”
Often if you ask young people, you know, “What would it take for you to have kids?” They actually can tell you, “Well, like, if I could feel certain that I could pay for healthcare, if I could feel certain that I could pay for housing and have enough space to have a family, if I had a good partner to have a family with, then I would have kids.” And they’re excited about it, but they don’t see those things in place.
通常，如果你问年轻人，你就会知道：“你想要孩子需要什么？”他们实际上可以告诉你，“好吧，如果我能确定我能支付医疗费用，如果我能确定我能支付住房费用并有足够的空间来组建家庭，如果我有一个好的伴侣来组建家庭，那么我就会有孩子。”他们对此感到兴奋，但他们并没有看到这些东西到位。
Actually, one of the more interesting data points that I’ve seen recently, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the representative, has been really public about her egg freezing journey, at 36.
事实上，我最近看到的更有趣的数据点之一是代表亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯 (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)，她在 36 岁时公开了自己的卵子冷冻之旅。
And there’s been a lot of criticism of her as sort of being a a girl boss or putting off a family because of her career.
人们对她有很多批评，认为她是一名女老板，或者因为她的事业而推迟了家庭。
But the researcher Marcia Inhorn interviewed hundreds of women who have frozen their eggs about why they did so, and basically none of them say, “Oh, I just really wanted to work longer,” you know, “I’m putting off a family because of my career.” Almost all of them say that they haven’t yet been able to find a partner with whom to have kids with.
但研究人员玛西娅·英霍恩 (Marcia Inhorn) 采访了数百名冷冻卵子的女性，询问她们这样做的原因，基本上没有人会说，“哦，我只是真的想工作更长时间，”你知道，“我因为事业而推迟了家庭。”几乎所有人都表示，他们还没有找到可以一起生孩子的伴侣。
And if they had a partner, they would do it.
如果他们有合作伙伴，他们就会这么做。
And in some sense, like, that’s why they’re freezing their eggs, because they still hope to have a family, but it just doesn’t seem possible in the moment.
从某种意义上说，这就是他们冷冻卵子的原因，因为他们仍然希望有一个家庭，但目前看来这是不可能的。
And I think that’s reflective of a broader mood.
我认为这反映了更广泛的情绪。
What’s interesting to me too is that these surveys, and I’ve seen them too— New York Times has a a great one that talks about the cost of living and, like you said, healthcare, and actually, like, a time shortage and financial shortage, and if these things were fixed, you know, we would be more likely to have kids, the folks surveyed say.
我也感兴趣的是这些调查，我也看过它们——《纽约时报》有一个很棒的调查，它讨论了生活成本，就像你说的那样，医疗保健，实际上，比如时间短缺和资金短缺，如果这些问题得到解决，你知道，我们更有可能生孩子，接受调查的人说。
But then when you look across the developed world, this is happening everywhere, in countries that have really generous social safety nets and healthcare and paid leave and, much lower levels of single-parent-led households.
但当你放眼整个发达国家时，就会发现这种情况到处都在发生，在那些拥有非常慷慨的社会安全网、医疗保健和带薪休假以及单亲家庭水平低得多的国家。
Like, the dynamics can be really different across countries, and yet this broader decline, I think we’re seeing it, it’s basically everywhere other than a couple places in Africa.
就像，不同国家的动态可能确实不同，但我认为我们正在看到这种更广泛的下降，除了非洲的几个地方之外，它基本上无处不在。
And so this is why you have folks like Elon Musk, among many others, who are saying we’re in the middle of a demographic collapse and whether it’s people looking at their option set and saying, “We don’t wanna have kids,” or I, I think there probably is still a part of it that might be just…
因此，这就是为什么像埃隆·马斯克这样的人，以及其他许多人，他们说我们正处于人口崩溃之中，无论是人们看着他们的选择集并说，“我们不想生孩子”，还是我，我认为其中可能仍然有一部分......
you, you bring it up in Rethinking Sex , where I think there might be a part of it that’s still selfish.
你在《重新思考性》一书中提到了这个问题，我认为其中可能仍然有一部分是自私的。
Like, there there actually is a part that seems like to be free is to be unattached, to be unconnected.
就像，实际上有一个部分似乎是自由的，就是不依附、不连接。
You know, when I think of some of the influencers I see who don’t have kids or spouses, it, it feels very indulgent in some ways.
你知道，当我想到我看到的一些没有孩子或配偶的影响者时，在某些方面感觉非常纵容。
So I think both of those strands are there.
所以我认为这两条线索都存在。
But regardless of which one is more significant, the result is we’re at a level in the U.S. and pretty much everywhere around the world where we’re having less kids than we need to kind of keep our species alive.
但无论哪一个更重要，结果是我们在美国和世界各地几乎都处于这样的水平：我们的孩子数量少于我们维持物种生存所需的数量。
So when people say it’s demographic collapse and, you know, kind of this whole human experiment is on the brink, is that an overreaction to you?
因此，当人们说这是人口崩溃，而且你知道，整个人体实验正处于边缘时，这对你来说是反应过度吗？
Is that, is that a prescient view of where we’re going?
这是对我们前进方向的先见之明吗？
Kind of how do you think about that, of going through these very individual decisions and should I date, should I marry, should I have kids, to, you know, as a, as a human population, we’re starting to flirt with extinction?
你如何看待这些非常个人的决定，我应该约会，我应该结婚，我应该生孩子，你知道，作为一个人类，我们开始濒临灭绝吗？
Yeah.
是的。
You know, when you phrase it like that, are we moving towards extinction?
你知道，当你这样说时，我们正在走向灭绝吗？
I tend to, you know, want to say, “Okay, you know, it’s, it’s not that bad yet.”
我倾向于，你知道，想说，“好吧，你知道，事情还没有那么糟糕。”
But there is, I mean, a a big demographic slowdown, you’re right, across the sort of wealthy world especially.
但我的意思是，人口结构正在大幅放缓，你是对的，尤其是在富裕国家。
But even in less wealthy countries, once they gain more wealth, people start having fewer children.
但即使在不太富裕的国家，一旦人们获得更多财富，他们的孩子数量就会开始减少。
I think there are a couple of different threads in that question that are kind of interesting to pull on.
我认为这个问题中有几个不同的线索很有趣。
So one, you note that even in countries, you know, in Scandinavia, in France, like in Korea, countries that have better and more supportive policies for families, you’re still seeing people having fewer children.
所以，你注意到，即使在斯堪的纳维亚半岛、法国、韩国等国家，这些国家对家庭有更好、更有支持的政策，你仍然看到人们的孩子数量较少。
And that kind of ties back to what, you know, you were saying about people saying, “Well, you know, we used to have kids during plagues and famines, et cetera.
这与你所说的人们所说的有某种联系，“嗯，你知道，我们过去在瘟疫和饥荒等时期都有孩子。
Like, why can’t we do it now, even if things are scary?”
就像，为什么我们现在不能这样做，即使事情很可怕？”
I think one of the things that we tend to, I guess, not underestimate is the word, but not think about enough, is how pervasive our anxieties have become in some ways.
我认为我们往往不会低估这个词，但没有充分考虑的一件事是，我们的焦虑在某些方面变得多么普遍。
Like, yes, there used to be crises in the past, but you didn’t know about all of them.
就像，是的，过去曾经有过危机，但你并不知道所有的危机。
You know, even in a country like Denmark, where sure, there’s better maternity leave, better daycare, et cetera, you’re still constantly getting the online feed of there’s a war here, the climate’s dying there, politics are bad across the world.
你知道，即使在像丹麦这样的国家，当然，那里有更好的产假，更好的日托等等，你仍然不断地在网上看到这里有战争，那里的气候正在恶化，世界各地的政治都很糟糕。
So you’re still making decisions in this broader cloud of, you know, felt anxiety and uncertainty, even if it isn’t reflected in your country’s policies yet.
因此，你仍然在更广泛的、感到焦虑和不确定性的云中做出决定，即使它还没有反映在你所在国家的政策中。
We’re so much more connected and so much more aware of potential bad things, I think, that it weighs on people in a different way.
我认为，我们的联系更加紧密，对潜在的坏事也更加了解，这给人们带来了不同的压力。
You know, I, I can imagine the influencers that you’re talking about.
你知道，我，我可以想象你所说的有影响力的人。
Right?
正确的？
The sort of like DINK, dual income, no kids, “I’m going on vacation.
有点像丁克，有双重收入，没有孩子，“我要去度假。
Yeah, it’s so great to not have to wake up early and, like, change a diaper.
是的，不用早起换尿布，真是太好了。
I can be drinking mimosas at brunch,” or whatever.
我可以在早午餐时喝含羞草，”或者其他什么。
I think some of that may go back to what we were talking about previously, about the sort of, you know, doth protest too much question, where you don’t feel like it’s possible for you, so maybe you’re kind of making the best of it with what you have.
我认为其中一些可能会回到我们之前讨论的内容，关于那种，你知道，抗议太多的问题，你觉得这对你来说是不可能的，所以也许你正在利用你所拥有的一切来充分利用它。
But also, yes, this idea that there are many more options and other things that you could do.
但是，是的，还有更多的选择和其他你可以做的事情。
I think because demographic slowdown has been happening over time, and especially in larger urban centers, one of the things I’ve noticed is that there are many more young people who don’t have any experience with kids or babies.
我认为，随着时间的推移，人口结构正在放缓，尤其是在较大的城市中心，我注意到的一件事是，有更多的年轻人没有任何与孩子或婴儿相处的经验。
They didn’t grow up with a lot of siblings.
他们并没有和很多兄弟姐妹一起长大。
They spent their childhood with their parents pushing them, you know, into travel soccer and to, like, study, to excel.
他们的童年是在父母的陪伴下度过的，你知道，他们督促他们去踢足球、学习、追求卓越。
They weren’t babysitting or, like, hanging out.
他们没有照顾孩子，也没有闲逛。
And so kids seem really foreign.
所以孩子们看起来真的很陌生。
Like, the idea of having kids, it’s like, “What?
就像，生孩子的想法，就像，“什么？
I don’t, I don’t even understand how this works.
我不知道，我什至不明白这是如何运作的。
It seems like a lot of work.
看起来工作量很大。
It’s very overwhelming and frightening.”
这是非常压倒性和可怕的。”
[23:30] And then often a lot of parenting content, especially in the sort of, like, gentle parenting vein, seems to be of parents who are just like constantly monitoring their children and/or being trampled by their children’s whims.
[23:30] 然后，很多育儿内容，尤其是那种温和的育儿风格，似乎都是父母不断地监视他们的孩子和/或被孩子的一时兴起所践踏的。
It’s like to be a parent is almost depicted as sort of, yeah, be a sad servant of a little tyrant who takes over your life and who you have to cater to all day long, and, like, speak to in soft tones and do everything for for 18 years.
就像父母几乎被描述成，是的，成为一个小暴君的悲伤仆人，他接管了你的生活，你必须整天迎合他，就像，用柔和的语气说话，做所有的事情长达 18 年。
That’s not that attractive.
那没那么有吸引力。
And again, if you’re unfamiliar with or don’t have as much family experience yourself, the upside is kind of unclear.
再说一次，如果你自己不熟悉或没有那么多的家庭经验，那么好处就不清楚了。
And I think that has actually been more of a turnoff than we register for people thinking about having kids.
我认为这实际上比我们登记的那些考虑生孩子的人更令人反感。
Yeah.
是的。
And I’m really intrigued by, you know, I’m always intrigued by the future.
我真的很感兴趣，你知道，我总是对未来感兴趣。
Who’s not?
谁不是？
But the slowdown has been happening for for some time, as you brought up, and yet we’ve never been kind of at the level we are now.
但正如你所提到的，经济放缓已经发生了一段时间，但我们从未达到现在的水平。
And I’m really kind of intrigued, you know, the extinction, demographic collapse aside, like what it actually feels like 10 years from now, 20 years from now here in America where people have less families, smaller families.
我真的很感兴趣，你知道，撇开灭绝、人口崩溃不谈，就像 10 年后、20 年后在美国的实际感觉一样，那里的人们的家庭越来越少，家庭越来越小。
Yeah.
是的。
You know, one of the sort of fascinating examples of this that I’ve actually seen play out over and over again and have, like, talked to friends and peers about is the continuing argument about crying babies on airplanes.
你知道，我已经一次又一次地看到这种令人着迷的例子之一，并且与朋友和同事谈论过关于飞机上哭泣的婴儿的持续争论。
Are you …
你是……
Have you come across any of these?
你遇到过这些吗？
Argument or, like, you don’t really love to have a crying baby on an airplane, and thus babies shouldn’t be on an airplane?
争论或者，比如，你真的不喜欢在飞机上哭闹的婴儿，因此婴儿不应该上飞机？
Is that what you’re getting to?
这就是你想要的吗？
Yeah.
是的。
Well, that’s the argument, right?
嗯，这就是论点，对吧？
There are people who are like, “Well, you know, you bring your baby on a plane and, like, it’s crying and you should control your child.” ” Why is this baby in my space?” Or like, kids in restaurants, like, “Why are they even there?”
有些人会说，“好吧，你知道，你带着你的孩子坐飞机，就像，它在哭，你应该控制你的孩子。” “这个宝贝怎么会在我的空间里？”或者就像，餐馆里的孩子们会问，“他们为什么在那里？”
And I mean, to me personally, I’m, like, Well, also children need to go places.
我的意思是，就我个人而言，我就像，嗯，孩子们也需要去一些地方。
Like, you were a baby too, and presumably cried.
就像，你也是个婴儿，大概也哭过。
Like, we can, we can make space for babies.
就像，我们可以，我们可以为婴儿腾出空间。
They’re the next generation.
他们是下一代。
But I think that is sort of a hint at what a a less demographically solid culture looks like in a sort of felt sense.
但我认为这在某种程度上暗示了人口统计上不太稳固的文化在某种感觉上是什么样子。
As people become less used to children and see them as much more of an option.
随着人们越来越不习惯孩子，并将他们视为更多的选择。
And this is actually something the Georgetown legal scholar Robin West has described in her work.
这实际上是乔治敦大学法律学者罗宾·韦斯特在她的著作中所描述的。
Having made children an option through the availability of birth control, abortion, et cetera, et cetera, we have developed a sort of social sense that, “Well, you made the choice to have a kid.
通过节育、堕胎等手段让孩子成为一种选择，我们已经形成了一种社会意识：“好吧，你做出了生孩子的选择。
It’s your responsibility.
这是你的责任。
I don’t want to be bothered by it.
我不想被它打扰。
I don’t have to help you with it.”
我不需要帮你。”
And I think that becomes more of a norm instead of like, “Oh, children are people too.
我认为这更像是一种常态，而不是“哦，孩子也是人。
They’re part of the fabric of society.” It’s like, “Why are there children in this space?
他们是社会结构的一部分。”就像，“为什么这个空间里有孩子？
It’s for adults.
这是给成年人的。
What is your baby doing bothering me here?”
你的孩子在这儿打扰我做什么？”
It becomes more hostile to families in ways both interpersonal like that, but also structurally in that instead of building playgrounds or parks, we use that space for other things.
它对家庭变得更加敌视，不仅在人际方面，而且在结构上，我们不再建造游乐场或公园，而是将这些空间用于其他用途。
Instead of spending a lot of time thinking about how we fund education in schools, we are diverting that to other causes.
我们没有花大量时间思考如何资助学校教育，而是将其转移到其他事业上。
I mean, just thinking about the effect of having fewer children and a smaller next generation policy-wise, you know, we are going to have more old people than young people working.
我的意思是，只要考虑一下减少孩子数量和减少下一代的政策影响，你就会知道，我们的老年人将多于工作的年轻人。
And so what does that mean for healthcare costs and the people who take care of them?
那么这对于医疗费用和照顾他们的人意味着什么呢？
I think that’s what a lot of policymakers actually fear when they talk about demographic collapse, this sort of upside down pyramid where there are fewer young people supporting a lot of older people and economic shrinkage.
我认为这就是许多政策制定者在谈论人口崩溃时真正担心的，这种倒金字塔结构中年轻人越来越少，老年人越来越多，经济萎缩。
And those are, you know, real, but telling people to have kids to juice the economy is is not really a selling point.
你知道，这些都是真实的，但告诉人们生孩子来刺激经济并不是真正的卖点。
Everyone’s trying to figure out how to turn this around, but there’s a particularly, like, energized contingent, it feels like, within America’s Republican Party.
每个人都在想办法扭转局面，但美国共和党内部似乎有一支特别充满活力的队伍。
And so I want to talk about kind of, we’ve talked about fertility as the, in some ways, the end of this long spectrum before it about our culture around sex and relationships and dating and marriage, and now you’re talking about having babies, and most of the kind of toggles we think about in public policy in Washington around fertility are about that very end point, because how do you impact everything leading up to that it’s not exactly quite clear.
所以我想谈谈，在某种程度上，我们已经讨论了生育率，这是我们围绕性、关系、约会和婚姻的文化之前的这个漫长范围的终点，现在你谈论的是生孩子，我们在华盛顿公共政策中围绕生育率考虑的大多数切换都是关于这个终点的，因为你如何影响导致这一点的一切还不太清楚。
And then there’s questions if we should even be toggling with the fertility level at all, because is that government’s role?
然后还有一个问题，我们是否应该调整生育水平，因为这是政府的角色吗？
But suffice it to say, there’s a lot of ideas for how to do it, and so I just kinda want to go through a rapid fire round for you, given the conversations you’ve had, the reporting you’ve done, of what would actually be helpful.
但我只想说，关于如何做到这一点有很多想法，所以我只是想快速地为你进行一轮快速的讨论，考虑到你所进行的对话、你所做的报告，以及哪些实际上是有帮助的。
So arguably the biggest one, and this is a bipartisan one, this is not just a a MAGA one, is increasing the size of a child tax credit, which is basically to say if you have a baby, when you file taxes, until that child ideally is 17, leaves the home, you’re going to get an annual check for a thousand bucks, two thousand bucks.
所以可以说，最大的一个，这是一个两党合作的项目，这不仅仅是一个让美国再次伟大的项目，是增加儿童税收抵免的规模，这基本上是说，如果你有一个孩子，当你报税时，直到那个孩子理想地17岁，离开家，你将获得一张一千美元、两千美元的年度支票。
What if it was $5,000?
如果是 5,000 美元怎么办？
What if it was $6,000?
如果是 6,000 美元怎么办？
Do you think that would help the fertility crisis?
您认为这有助于解决生育危机吗？
That option always kind of makes me laugh a little bit.
这个选择总是让我有点笑。
It has been tried.
已经尝试过了。
South Korea, um, which is experiencing one of the biggest demographic dives has has tried this.
韩国，嗯，正在经历人口急剧下降之一，它已经尝试过这一点。
It was tried in Hungary, and elsewhere, and it doesn’t really seem to have an effect.
它在匈牙利和其他地方进行了尝试，但似乎并没有真正产生效果。
Honestly, if you think about it just for, like, a few moments, that makes sense.
老实说，如果你想一下，比如几分钟，这是有道理的。
Having children is a sort of all-consuming and life-changing choice for the next 18 years.
在接下来的 18 年里，生孩子是一种需要全身心投入、改变生活的选择。
Even conservative estimates from think tanks tend to say that, you know, one child will probably cost, you know, $200,000 to $300,000 over a a lifetime.
即使是智库的保守估计也倾向于说，你知道，一个孩子一生中可能要花费 20 万到 30 万美元。
Giving somebody $1,000 to have a kid is not going to cover that.
给某人 1,000 美元生孩子并不足以弥补这一点。
That is not going to change someone’s mind.
这不会改变某人的想法。
Nobody is like, “Ah, well, I was thinking about having a child or not having a child, but this person’s offered me $5,000, so I guess I’ll, I’ll change my life.” That’s not how people think.
没有人会说，“啊，好吧，我在考虑要不要孩子，但是这个人给了我 5,000 美元，所以我想我会，我会改变我的生活。”人们不是这么想的。
I mean, I think that there should be better child credits, and far more direct support for parents, but I don’t think that that will change people’s minds unless the number is actually huge.
我的意思是，我认为应该有更好的儿童信贷，以及对父母更直接的支持，但我不认为这会改变人们的想法，除非数字确实很大。
I think it might help people who are perhaps on the bubble, but it will probably just go to people who are going to have kids anyway.
我认为这可能会对那些可能处于泡沫中的人有所帮助，但它可能只会惠及那些无论如何都要生孩子的人。
But providing maybe relief for those folks, even though it’s not changing decisions.
但也许可以为这些人提供救济，尽管这并没有改变决定。
What about more structural things like, you know, something I’ve written a lot about is paid parental leave, like you have time protected away from work.
更结构性的事情呢，比如我写过很多关于带薪育儿假的内容，就像你有时间远离工作一样。
This is kind of a societal statement that this is special, sacred time that’s worth setting apart, or different childcare options, which tends to top lists of what people can’t afford when they think about having kids that make them worried.
这是一种社会声明，表明这是一个特殊的、神圣的时刻，值得分开，或者不同的儿童保育选择，当人们考虑养孩子时，这往往是人们负担不起的事情的首要清单，这让他们感到担心。
Or I don’t know, honestly, to some extent maybe finally fixing public schools in K through 12, which makes people think, I don’t know, you know, then do you have to start saving for private school too, in addition to college, in addition to childcare, and all of a sudden this is becoming a bit much.
或者我不知道，老实说，在某种程度上，也许最终会在K到12年级中固定公立学校，这让人们想，我不知道，你知道，那么除了大学，除了儿童保育之外，你是否也必须开始为私立学校存钱，突然之间，这变得有点多了。
Kind of what about some of those structural changes?
其中一些结构性变化怎么样？
So I do think that structural changes around paid parental leave, better childcare or even subsidies for childcare if people don’t want to put their kids in, I don’t know, a state-run daycare or something, that is something that I I think might move the needle.
因此，我确实认为，围绕带薪育婴假、更好的儿童保育，甚至如果人们不想将孩子送入国营日托机构或其他机构的话，甚至为儿童保育提供补贴，我认为这可能会起到推动作用。
I’m not sure how far.
我不确定有多远。
But yes, exactly as you were saying, when people talk about, you know, their fears around having children, one major one is losing their job, or falling back in their job such that they are not able to support their families in the future.
但是，是的，正如你所说，当人们谈论他们对生孩子的恐惧时，其中一个主要的恐惧就是失业，或者重新回到工作岗位，以致他们将来无法养家糊口。
And yes, our our lack of paid parental leave is a signal that, you know, we don’t really care about this aspect of people’s lives, and we’re not making room for it.
是的，我们缺乏带薪育儿假是一个信号，你知道，我们并不真正关心人们生活的这一方面，我们也没有为此腾出空间。
So I think that would actually, you know, make a difference in people’s comfort in stepping away to to do this family thing.
所以我认为这实际上会改变人们离开去做家庭事务的舒适度。
I think daycare costs and childcare costs are huge.
我认为日托费用和儿童保育费用是巨大的。
Just reading different family estimates, people spend often what would be, like, a month’s rent or mortgage payment every month on daycare.
只要阅读不同的家庭估计，人们经常在日托上花费每月的租金或抵押贷款。
And I think knowing that they wouldn’t necessarily have to do that might make the idea of having a child less daunting, assuming that, you know, the subsidies offered, the facilities in place were actually up to standard and high quality.
我认为知道他们不一定必须这样做可能会让生孩子的想法不那么令人畏惧，假设提供的补贴和到位的设施实际上符合标准和高质量。
Yeah, I think those structural fears could be alleviated somewhat.
是的，我认为这些结构性担忧可能会有所缓解。
Okay.
好的。
Three more with kind of thumbs up, thumbs down, or kind of a in between thumb thing.
还有三个拇指向上，拇指向下，或者拇指之间的东西。
Free birth, but which, but not freedom like you can birth any way you want, but the …
自由出生，但不是像你这样可以随心所欲地出生的自由，而是……
you know, giving—
你知道，给予——
Very fun.
非常有趣。
No cost births, like, you don’t have a payment when you go to the hospital or at home, whatever, after giving birth.
免费分娩，例如，分娩后去医院或在家等任何地方都无需付费。
Is that a thumbs up, thumbs down, thumbs …
是竖起大拇指、竖起大拇指、还是竖起大拇指……
?
？
Thumbs up.
竖起大拇指。
I’m not sure that everybody knows how much birth costs actually, so it may not be top of mind, but I’m sure it would help.
我不确定每个人都知道实际的生育费用是多少，所以这可能不是首要考虑的，但我相信这会有所帮助。
What about a bonus if you get married?
如果结婚的话奖金怎么样？
You get a larger tax credit, you get a actual, like, check for getting married, you get your wedding costs covered with that kind of stuff.
你会得到更大的税收抵免，你会得到一张实际的，比如结婚支票，你的婚礼费用都会用这种东西来支付。
What about that?
那又怎样呢？
I’m gonna thumbs down that, because I honestly think it would weird people out.
我会对此表示反对，因为老实说，我认为这会让人们感到奇怪。
And it seems like it could be manipulated in a lot of different directions.
看起来它可以在很多不同的方向上被操纵。
I don’t think people would find it attractive.
我认为人们不会觉得它有吸引力。
I do think that that would help.
我确实认为这会有帮助。
I think that people are having children later in part because of cost, and the felt need to save up, et cetera, et cetera.
我认为人们推迟生孩子的部分原因是成本，以及感觉需要存钱等等。
And when you start having children later, you have fewer kids, unless you are able to afford fertility help often because fertility declines.
当你开始生孩子的时间较晚时，你的孩子就会减少，除非你经常因为生育能力下降而能够负担得起生育帮助。
So that might help people to have more kids later on.
所以这可能会帮助人们以后生更多的孩子。
So to close, I have two questions.
最后，我有两个问题。
One is kind of the the personal level and all the conversations you’ve had, many of the stories that are in your book about, you know, what advice would you give, and you can choose which person you you want to speak to here, to either someone who doesn’t plan to become a parent and kind of doesn’t see the value in any of this stuff and kind of feels like maybe it’s not even an option anyway, and is that even a path worth persisting or, or what have you.
一个是个人层面，以及你所进行的所有对话，你书中的许多故事，你知道，你会给出什么建议，你可以选择你想在这里与谁交谈，或者是那些不打算成为父母的人，并且看不到这些东西的价值，感觉也许这根本不是一个选择，甚至是一条值得坚持的道路，或者，或者你有什么。
And the other is to someone who actually is a parent in the middle of this fertility crisis and feels like very alone.
另一个是对于那些真正处于生育危机之中、感到非常孤独的人来说。
And how would you speak to, I don’t know, the the narratives they tell themselves or the advice that you would give them?
我不知道你会如何与他们讲述自己的故事或你会给他们的建议交谈？
And then I want to end with a more macro question.
然后我想以一个更宏观的问题来结束。
But what would you say to just an individual person in the middle of this fertility swirl?
但你会对处于生育漩涡中的个人说什么？
So I think to the person who doesn’t have kids and is not sure if they want them in the midst of insecurity, et cetera, first I would point out that our media and our visible consumption makes having kids seem very hard and expensive, and you actually don’t have to have a perfect life to have kids.
所以我认为，对于那些没有孩子、不确定自己是否想要孩子、处于不安全感等情况下的人来说，首先我要指出的是，我们的媒体和我们的可见消费让生孩子看起来非常困难和昂贵，而且你实际上不必拥有完美的生活才能生孩子。
Like, it’s okay to share a bedroom.
比如，共用一间卧室是可以的。
I did.
我做到了。
Like, you don’t have to be the gentle parenting queen.
就像，你不必成为温柔的育儿女王。
Kids don’t have to cost, you know, twenties of thousands of dollars every year for toys and accessories and the newest stroller.
你知道，孩子们不必每年花费二十万美元购买玩具、配件和最新的婴儿车。
I think you need to be a good enough parent, but that can look like a lot of different things, and can bring a lot of love into your life, and expand your life in ways that you might not have expected and cannot even imagine in this moment.
我认为你需要成为一个足够好的父母，但这可能看起来像很多不同的事情，并且可以给你的生活带来很多爱，并以你此刻可能没有预料到、甚至无法想象的方式扩展你的生活。
And societally, we’ve talked about this as a whole kind of journey, our sex culture, relationship culture, marriage, fertility culture.
在社会上，我们将其视为一种完整的旅程，我们的性文化、关系文化、婚姻、生育文化。
If you could kind of lay a piece of, we call it sidewalk on this podcast, but basically a structural support of some sort, for those who decide to go on to become parents, what would it be?
如果你可以在这个播客上放置一块，我们称之为人行道，但基本上是某种结构性的支撑，对于那些决定继续成为父母的人来说，它会是什么？
Yeah.
是的。
I mean, thinking of structural changes actually at the very beginning of the funnel, I would get rid of dating apps, frankly, because I think that they’ve made relationship formation just worse and harder and less likely, and without those, you’re not going to get to babies.
我的意思是，考虑到漏斗一开始的结构性变化，坦率地说，我会摆脱约会应用程序，因为我认为它们使关系的形成变得更糟、更困难、更不可能，没有这些，你就不会生孩子。
For people who are already sort of in couples and want to have children, I think the track I would lay is, yeah, some of the structural change you were talking about.
对于那些已经结婚并想要孩子的人来说，我认为我要铺设的轨道是，是的，你正在谈论的一些结构性变化。
Off the top of my head, I would say better maternal and paternal leave, that is longer and paid so that families feel like they will have time to bond with their children, but also not feel like they’re falling behind in the world for having a family.
我突然想到，更好的产假和陪产假，更长的时间和带薪休假，这样家庭就会觉得他们有时间与孩子建立联系，但也不会觉得他们因为拥有家庭而在世界上落后。
Yeah.
是的。
Well, Christine, you are a fount of knowledge and wisdom, and thank you so much for having this conversation with me.
好吧，克里斯汀，你是知识和智慧的源泉，非常感谢你与我进行这次谈话。
I’m Abby McCloskey from the Brookings Institution, and this is No More Sidewalks: Parenting Today .
我是来自布鲁金斯学会的艾比·麦克洛斯基，这是《不再人行道：今日育儿》。
This podcast is produced by the Brookings Podcast Network and the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity at Brookings.
该播客由布鲁金斯播客网络和布鲁金斯经济安全与机会中心制作。
Thanks to the production team, including Ike Blake, supervising producer, Fred Dews, producer, and Daniel Morales and Teddy Wansink, video editors, and Chris Chang, audio editor.
感谢制作团队，包括监制 Ike Blake、制片人 Fred Dews、视频编辑 Daniel Morales 和 Teddy Wansink 以及音频编辑 Chris Chang。
Plus, thanks to Tara Watson, director of the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity, Stephanie Holzbauer and Tyler Hernandez for their support.
另外，还要感谢经济安全与机会中心主任塔拉·沃森 (Tara Watson)、斯蒂芬妮·霍尔兹鲍尔 (Stephanie Holzbauer) 和泰勒·埃尔南德斯 (Tyler Hernandez) 的支持。
Daniel Morales also designed the show artwork.
丹尼尔·莫拉莱斯 (Daniel Morales) 还设计了展览艺术作品。
You can find all episodes of No More Sidewalks wherever you get your podcasts and on the Brookings website.
您可以在任何播客和布鲁金斯网站上找到《不再人行道》的所有剧集。
And finally, find research on family policy and economic security at Brookings dot edu slash CESO.
最后，可以在布鲁金斯学会 dot edulashCESO 找到有关家庭政策和经济安全的研究。
The Brookings Institution is committed to quality, independence, and impact.
布鲁金斯学会致力于质量、独立性和影响力。
We are supported by a diverse array of funders .
我们得到了众多资助者的支持。
In line with our values and policies , each Brookings publication represents the sole views of its author(s).
根据我们的价值观和政策，布鲁金斯学会的每份出版物均代表其作者的唯一观点。