October 2026 update to TIGER: A modest recovery built on shaky foundations
In collaboration with the Financial Times, Eswar Prasad and Thomas Riveros have constructed a set of composite indexes that track the global economic recovery.
Eswar Prasad 和 Thomas Riveros 与英国《金融时报》合作，构建了一套跟踪全球经济复苏的综合指数。
The Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery (TIGER) is also featured in the Financial Times .
全球经济复苏追踪指数 (TIGER) 也出现在《金融时报》上。
A version of this article also appears in Project Syndicate .
本文的一个版本也出现在 Project Syndicate 中。
Global growth has stabilized despite heightened policy and geopolitical volatility, with both advanced and emerging market economies exhibiting positive momentum.
尽管政策和地缘政治波动加剧，全球经济增长仍趋于稳定，发达市场和新兴市场经济体均呈现积极势头。
The latest update of the Brookings-Financial Times TIGER (Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery) shows that the world economy has shaken off a series of setbacks and appears set for a year of solid growth.
布鲁金斯-金融时报TIGER（全球经济复苏追踪指数）的最新更新显示，世界经济已经摆脱了一系列挫折，似乎将迎来新的一年稳健增长。
There are, however, worrying omens lurking in the background, including trade and geopolitical tensions that show scant signs of easing, persistent inflationary pressures, and rising public debt levels in the advanced economies.
然而，背后潜藏着令人担忧的预兆，包括贸易和地缘政治紧张局势几乎没有缓解的迹象、持续的通胀压力以及发达经济体公共债务水平不断上升。
Equity markets tell a more mixed story, weakening in some key emerging markets while performing surprisingly well in many advanced economies.
股市的情况则更为复杂，一些主要新兴市场走软，而许多发达经济体却表现出奇的好。
A great deal of hope seems to rest on an AI-led investment surge in turn fueling a productivity boom, which would bolster growth, ease concerns about debt sustainability, and justify equity market valuations.
很大的希望似乎寄托在人工智能主导的投资激增，进而推动生产力繁荣，这将提振经济增长，缓解对债务可持续性的担忧，并证明股市估值合理。
While an upsurge in productivity would boost corporate earnings, the net employment and labor income effects remain ambiguous, which might explain a recent divergence between business optimism and weaker household confidence in some advanced economies.
虽然生产率的提高将提振企业盈利，但对净就业和劳动力收入的影响仍然不明确，这可能解释了最近一些发达经济体企业乐观情绪与家庭信心疲弱之间的分歧。
Select a country below the Composite Index to view charts for the main TIGER indexes by country and charts for the indicators that make up the indexes, which are broken down by real activity , financial , and confidence indicators for advanced economies and emerging markets.
选择综合指数下方的国家，查看按国家/地区划分的主要 TIGER 指数图表以及构成指数的指标图表，这些指标按发达经济体和新兴市场的实际活动、金融和信心指标进行细分。
The U.S. economy continues to drive global growth, undeterred by high energy prices and rising government bond yields that have made credit broadly more expensive.
美国经济继续推动全球增长，并没有受到高能源价格和不断上升的政府债券收益率的影响，这些因素导致信贷普遍更加昂贵。
Inflation has stayed stubbornly above the Fed’s target, but long-term inflation expectations are still well anchored despite mounting unease about the U.S. fiscal trajectory as federal budget deficits and debt keep rising.
通胀一直顽固地保持在美联储目标之上，但尽管随着联邦预算赤字和债务不断上升，人们对美国财政轨迹的不安日益加剧，但长期通胀预期仍然得到很好的锚定。
Business investment, driven by AI-related capital expenditures, has continued to expand, and so has household consumption, despite signs of a softening labor market.
尽管劳动力市场有疲软的迹象，但在人工智能相关资本支出的推动下，商业投资持续扩大，家庭消费也是如此。
With inflation edging down and cooler job growth easing wage pressures, the Fed is less constrained by its price stability mandate, barring further energy shocks.
随着通胀逐渐下降，就业增长放缓缓解了工资压力，除非出现进一步的能源冲击，否则美联储受到其价格稳定任务的约束较少。
The eurozone remains beset by economic and political malaise.
欧元区仍然受到经济和政治低迷的困扰。
High energy costs and the onslaught of Chinese exports have restrained manufacturing growth in the core eurozone economies, even as some of the smaller and periphery economies in the zone are performing better.
高能源成本和中国出口的冲击限制了欧元区核心经济体的制造业增长，尽管欧元区一些较小和外围经济体表现较好。
Rising budget deficits and public debt levels, lagging competitiveness of high-tech industries, and vulnerability to energy and other supply disruptions have put a pall on the region’s growth prospects, with populist political pressures adding to the turmoil.
不断上升的预算赤字和公共债务水平、落后的高科技产业竞争力以及易受能源和其他供应中断影响的脆弱性给该地区的增长前景蒙上阴影，民粹主义政治压力加剧了动荡。
Political instability and a fiscal squeeze have contributed to the UK economy remaining mired in low growth, with industrial production declining and the unemployment rate ticking up to near 2021 levels.
政治不稳定和财政紧缩导致英国经济仍陷入低增长，工业生产下降，失业率升至接近2021年的水平。
Japan has turned the corner from a long period of stagnation and deflation, with inflation hovering near 2% and GDP growth positive but weak.
日本已经摆脱了长期的停滞和通货紧缩，通胀徘徊在2%附近，GDP正增长但疲软。
High public debt levels, a shrinking labor force, and weak productivity growth have battered the yen’s value amid concerns about longer-term fiscal sustainability and elusive drivers of growth.
由于人们对长期财政可持续性和难以捉摸的增长动力的担忧，高额公共债务水平、劳动力萎缩和生产率增长疲弱已经打击了日元的币值。
Canada is likely to be hit hard by the trade war with the United States.
加拿大可能会因与美国的贸易战而受到沉重打击。
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s attempts to fortify trade relationships with other countries are emblematic of how even longstanding U.S. allies are seeking to mitigate vulnerabilities resulting from close economic, trade, and military relationships with the U.S.
马克·卡尼总理试图加强与其他国家的贸易关系，这象征着即使是美国的长期盟友也在寻求减轻与美国密切的经济、贸易和军事关系所带来的脆弱性。
China’s economy continues to grow in an unbalanced manner, with output expanding at a slower rate than in 2025 but still outstripping domestic demand, as nominal retail sales lag and consumer confidence remains depressed.
中国经济持续不平衡增长，产出增速低于2025年，但仍超过内需，名义零售销售滞后，消费者信心依然低迷。
With a partial easing of China-U.S. trade tensions and limited pushback from other trading partners, Beijing will likely continue to rely on exports to power growth.
随着中美关系的部分缓和由于贸易紧张局势和其他贸易伙伴的有限阻力，北京可能会继续依靠出口来推动增长。
The newly announced infrastructure plan will lift public sector investment and may hasten technological upgrading of the manufacturing sector, but the government has shown little urgency to boost household consumption or undertake reforms that would help rebalance growth.
新公布的基础设施计划将增加公共部门投资，并可能加速制造业的技术升级，但政府并没有表现出刺激家庭消费或实施有助于重新平衡增长的改革的紧迫性。
India stands out as a bright spot, with its economy firing on all cylinders.
印度成为一个亮点，其经济全速运转。
High oil prices, a weakening currency, and falling stock prices could take some of the shine off in the period ahead, but structural and fiscal reforms seem to be paying off in the economy’s greater resilience to an unfavorable external environment.
高油价、疲软的货币和下跌的股价可能会在未来一段时间内削弱一些光芒，但结构性和财政改革似乎正在取得成效，使经济对不利的外部环境具有更强的抵御能力。
Strong growth in industrial production, household consumption, and exports contributed to real GDP growth of nearly 8% in the first half of this calendar year.
工业生产、居民消费和出口的强劲增长推动今年上半年实际GDP增长近8%。
Indonesia and, to a lesser extent, Brazil are experiencing robust GDP growth, although political instability remains a wild card in both countries.
印度尼西亚和巴西（在较小程度上）正在经历强劲的国内生产总值增长，尽管政治不稳定仍然是这两个国家的一个不确定因素。
Argentina has become a noteworthy example of a country where the fiscal contraction needed to shift from an overall budget deficit to a small surplus, in tandem with a set of market-oriented reforms, has helped bring down inflation and boost growth.
阿根廷已成为一个值得注意的例子，该国需要通过财政紧缩从总体预算赤字转向小额盈余，并结合一系列市场导向的改革，帮助降低了通货膨胀并促进了增长。
Despite high oil prices, Western financial sanctions and the costs of the war with Ukraine have kept the Russian economy on its knees.
尽管油价高企，但西方的金融制裁和与乌克兰的战争成本仍使俄罗斯经济陷入困境。
The key challenge that policymakers around the world face is their shrinking room to maneuver as persistently high inflation and fiscal profligacy result in elevated yields on government debt securities, with both factors dampening private demand.
世界各地政策制定者面临的主要挑战是，由于持续高通胀和财政挥霍导致政府债务证券收益率上升，这两个因素抑制了私人需求，因此他们的回旋余地不断缩小。
Constraints on monetary and fiscal policies leave governments with little choice but to push forward with structural reforms to labor, product, and financial markets that could help unleash productivity growth, which is the only viable path to fiscal sustainability and long-run prosperity.
货币和财政政策的限制使政府别无选择，只能推进劳动力、产品和金融市场的结构性改革，这有助于释放生产率增长，这是实现财政可持续性和长期繁荣的唯一可行途径。