Climate Resilience Starts With Care

Climate shocks can disrupt services that millions of vulnerable people rely on, yet care is largely absent from adaptation plans and national funding estimates.

气候冲击可能会破坏数百万弱势群体所依赖的服务，但适应计划和国家资金估算中基本上没有提供照顾。

Investing in climate-resilient care can prevent cascading health and economic crises while creating jobs and easing pressure on public budgets.

投资于气候适应性护理可以防止连锁健康和经济危机，同时创造就业机会并缓解公共预算压力。

WASHINGTON, DC—It is getting harder by the day to justify the slow pace of adaptation to climate change.

华盛顿——越来越难证明适应气候变化的缓慢步伐是合理的。

Last year was one of the hottest on record , with economies and communities around the world disrupted by extreme heat, heavy rainfall, and tropical cyclones.

去年是有记录以来最热的一年，世界各地的经济和社区都受到极端高温、强降雨和热带气旋的破坏。

As November’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) in Turkey approaches, governments must move beyond climate commitments and focus on implementation.

随着 11 月在土耳其举行的联合国气候变化大会 (COP31) 临近，各国政府必须超越气候承诺，重点关注实施。

While empirical inquiry has its place in economics, the pursuit of causality must not be allowed to displace the pursuit of explanation.

虽然实证探究在经济学中占有一席之地，但决不能允许对因果关系的追求取代对解释的追求。

Beyond identifying causal effects within existing arrangements, economists must investigate how those arrangements are produced, reproduced, and contested.

除了确定现有安排中的因果效应之外，经济学家还必须研究这些安排是如何产生、复制和争论的。

Financing for adaptation activities remains nowhere near what is needed.

适应活动的资金仍远不能满足需要。

The UN Environment Programme estimates that developing countries will need $310–365 billion per year through 2035, putting the current funding gap at $280 billion.

联合国环境规划署估计，到 2035 年，发展中国家每年将需要 310-3650 亿美元，目前的资金缺口为 2800 亿美元。

Getting the money to where it can do the most good may be an even bigger challenge , as institutions struggle to identify adaptation investments that are ready to implement and whose risks can be properly assessed and priced.

将资金用于最能发挥作用的地方可能是一个更大的挑战，因为各机构很难确定已准备好实施且其风险可以得到适当评估和定价的适应投资。

In a new working paper , we argue that estimates of funding needs and proposed investment pipelines overlook a critical piece of infrastructure: an ecosystem of climate-adapted care services that helps families prepare for, cope with, and recover from climate-induced hazards.

在一份新的工作文件中，我们认为对资金需求的估计和拟议的投资渠道忽视了基础设施的一个关键部分：适应气候的护理服务生态系统，帮助家庭做好准备、应对气候引起的灾害并从中恢复。

Properly designed, these services can bolster household and community resilience.

如果设计得当，这些服务可以增强家庭和社区的复原力。

The same principle underpins investments in early-warning systems and adaptive social protections designed to help countries respond to climate shocks.

同样的原则也支持对旨在帮助各国应对气候冲击的预警系统和适应性社会保护的投资。

Provisional estimates suggest that at least 35,000 excess deaths occurred across Europe during this summer’s severe back-to-back heat waves.

初步估计显示，今年夏天连续发生的严重热浪期间，欧洲各地至少有 35,000 人超额死亡。

Despite their well-developed welfare systems, the absence of climate-adapted physical infrastructure and coordinated services contributed to this excess mortality.

尽管它们的福利体系十分发达，但缺乏适应气候的物质基础设施和协调的服务导致了死亡率的过高。

Yet national climate-adaptation plans rarely account for what happens when care breaks down.

然而，国家气候适应计划很少考虑到护理中断时会发生什么。

Floods and wildfires displace families and separate caregivers from the people who depend on them.

洪水和野火导致许多家庭流离失所，并使护理人员与依赖他们的人失散。

When household-based care is no longer possible, formal care can become a lifeline for older people and people with disabilities who cannot evacuate or manage on their own.

当家庭护理不再可行时，正规护理可以成为无法疏散或自行管理的老年人和残疾人的生命线。

Without reliable care services, health issues can lead to otherwise preventable hospital admissions, putting even more pressure on already strained services.

如果没有可靠的护理服务，健康问题可能会导致本来可以避免的住院，给本已紧张的服务带来更大的压力。

As matters stand, family caregivers are left to shoulder the burden, facing injury and burnout during prolonged emergencies.

就目前情况而言，家庭护理人员不得不承担重担，在长期紧急情况下面临受伤和倦怠。

Some, most of them women, are forced to leave paid work just when their families can least afford to lose income.

有些人（其中大多数是女性）在家庭最无力承受收入损失的情况下被迫离开有薪工作。

When care systems fail, a climate shock can quickly become both a health and economic crisis.

当护理系统失效时，气候冲击可能很快演变成健康和经济危机。

Strong care systems can prevent these cascading failures, making care a crucial part of climate resilience.

强大的护理系统可以防止这些连锁故障，使护理成为气候适应力的重要组成部分。

AI-generated content already accounts for half the articles published online, and not even digital forensics experts can tell what’s real anymore.

人工智能生成的内容已经占在线发表文章的一半，甚至数字取证专家也无法辨别哪些内容是真实的。

Can those still offering a humanistic vision of online life make themselves heard over the din?

那些仍然对网络生活提出人文愿景的人能否在喧嚣中让自己的声音被听到？

Leaving care out of national adaptation plans thus means underestimating what climate resilience actually requires.

因此，将关怀排除在国家适应计划之外意味着低估了气候适应能力的实际需求。

Admittedly, anticipating those needs is difficult, as there is no standard definition of what qualifies as adaptation, and national estimates are often based on individual projects, most of them in conventional sectors.

诚然，预测这些需求是困难的，因为对于适应的条件没有标准定义，而且国家估计往往基于单个项目，其中大多数是在传统部门。

That sector-by-sector approach allows care to fall through the cracks.

这种逐个部门的方法使得护理工作被忽视。

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, water supply, and sanitation account for nearly 40% of global adaptation finance, while health receives an estimated 4–6% and education around 2%.

农业、林业、渔业、供水和卫生部门占全球适应资金的近 40%，而卫生部门估计占 4-6%，教育部门约占 2%。

Long-term care and early-childhood care and education are essentially absent , particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where most care is provided informally.

长期护理和幼儿护理和教育基本上不存在，特别是在低收入和中等收入国家，这些国家的大多数护理都是非正式提供的。

Despite being too low, the $310–365 billion figure is already baked into national plans and multilateral-development-bank targets.

尽管这个数字太低，但 310-3650 亿美元的数字已经纳入国家计划和多边开发银行的目标中。

But as climate shocks intensify, people will need more care, not less.

但随着气候冲击加剧，人们将需要更多而不是更少的照顾。

And when formal services fall short, unpaid caregivers—overwhelmingly women and girls—will end up filling the gap.

当正规服务不足时，无偿护理人员（绝大多数是妇女和女孩）最终将填补这一空白。

Our paper proposes a way to begin correcting that omission.

我们的论文提出了一种开始纠正这一遗漏的方法。

For example, we estimate that building climate-resilient care infrastructure in Bangladesh would require an investment equivalent to roughly 3–5% of GDP, similar to what is needed for health and education.

例如，我们估计，在孟加拉国建设气候适应型护理基础设施将需要相当于 GDP 约 3-5% 的投资，类似于健康和教育所需的投资。

This is a substantial investment, but only a fraction of the estimated value of unpaid care work.

这是一笔巨额投资，但仅占无酬护理工作估计价值的一小部分。

Building that care infrastructure would require millions of workers.

建设护理基础设施需要数百万工人。

We estimate that early-childhood care and education and long-term care could directly employ 3.6–7 million people in Bangladesh.

我们估计，幼儿保育和教育以及长期护理可以直接为孟加拉国提供36-700万人的就业机会。

More jobs would come from providing food and other supplies, as well as from building or retrofitting childcare facilities and homes for people receiving long-term care.

更多的就业机会将来自提供食品和其他用品，以及为接受长期护理的人建造或改造儿童保育设施和房屋。

Care services also give financiers a concrete way to put adaptation money to work.

护理服务还为金融家提供了将适应资金投入使用的具体方法。

For starters, such investments come with an established evidence base —data on unit costs, staffing models, utilization, and outcomes—facilitating risk assessment.

首先，此类投资具有既定的证据基础——有关单位成本、人员配置模型、利用率和结果的数据——有利于风险评估。

Some of these investments partially pay for themselves through tax revenue from higher employment and lower future spending on health and social protection .

其中一些投资通过较高的就业率和较低的未来卫生和社会保障支出带来的税收收入部分地收回了成本。

And demand is demographically guaranteed, since the need for care can only grow as populations age.

从人口角度来看，需求是有保障的，因为护理需求只会随着人口老龄化而增长。

As adaptation financing tightens, every dollar has to work harder.

随着适应融资的收紧，每一块钱都必须更加努力。

That makes it all the more important to invest in care systems that help communities withstand climate shocks while easing pressure on public budgets.

这使得投资于帮助社区抵御气候冲击、同时缓解公共预算压力的护理系统变得更加重要。

Caren Grown is Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at the Brookings Institution.

卡伦·格朗 (Caren Grown) 是布鲁金斯学会可持续发展中心的高级研究员兼主任。

Kendall Trelegan is a research analyst at the Center for Sustainable Development at the Brookings Institution.

肯德尔·特里根 (Kendall Trelegan) 是布鲁金斯学会可持续发展中心的研究分析师。

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