Three state elections throw German politics into disarray

German state elections are normally placid affairs, with low turnout, limited media interest, and international press nowhere to be seen.

德国州选举通常很平静，投票率低，媒体兴趣有限，国际媒体也不见踪影。

But three recent votes, held on September 6 and 20 in the city-state of Berlin (population 3.9 million) and the two eastern states of Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (population 2.1 million and 1.6 million, respectively), have attracted attention around the world.

但最近于 9 月 6 日和 20 日在城邦柏林（人口 390 万）和东部两个州萨克森-安哈尔特州和梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州（人口分别为 210 万和 160 万）举行的三场投票引起了全世界的关注。

And for good reason.

这是有充分理由的。

Voters in three very different places turned out in historically high numbers to act on their deep frustration with national politics, with radical and potentially unworkable outcomes.

三个截然不同的地方的选民数量创下历史新高，他们对国家政治深感沮丧，结果采取了激进且可能行不通的结果。

Taken together, they may have lowered the curtain on postwar Germany’s stability-focused and centrist political culture, ushering in a new era of polarization, volatility, and fragmentation.

总而言之，它们可能拉开了德国战后注重稳定的中间派政治文化的帷幕，迎来了一个两极分化、动荡和分裂的新时代。

Whether they will also end Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s political career is a question that still hangs in the balance.

他们是否也会结束总理弗里德里希·梅尔茨的政治生涯仍然是一个悬而未决的问题。

In rural Saxony-Anhalt , the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and its leader, Ulrich Siegmund, won a state election for the first time since the party’s foundation in 2013.

在萨克森-安哈特州农村地区，德国另类选择党 (AfD) 及其领导人乌尔里希·西格蒙德 (Ulrich Siegmund) 自 2013 年该党成立以来首次赢得州选举。

The victory came despite the fact that the party’s state chapter has been classified as “ certified right-wing extremist ” by the state’s domestic intelligence service, and its 258-page party program contains what can only be described as startlingly malevolent proposals.

尽管该党的州分会已被该州国内情报部门归类为“经过认证的右翼极端分子”，而且其长达258页的党纲包含的内容只能被描述为令人震惊的恶意提案，但胜利还是到来了。

The AfD secured a stunning 43.8% vote share, but it is three seats short of a majority, and no other democratic party has agreed to govern with it.

德国选择党获得了惊人的 43.8% 选票，但距离多数席位还差三个席位，而且没有其他民主党同意与其一起执政。

So, its only path to government is a coalition with the tiny far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a cultist offshoot formed by former members of Die Linke.

因此，它走向政府的唯一途径是与极左的小型撒哈拉·瓦根克内西特联盟（BSW）结成联盟，该联盟是由德国左翼党前成员组成的邪教分支。

(Die Linke itself is the successor to the former ruling party of communist East Germany, the Socialist Unity Party.) BSW struggled across the parliamentary threshold, winning 5.3% of the vote; it says it is willing to cooperate with the AfD but not to form a coalition with it.

（左翼党本身是共产主义东德的前执政党社会统一党的继承者。）BSW 艰难地跨过议会门槛，赢得了 5.3% 的选票；它表示愿意与选择党合作，但不与其结盟。

In a surprise move, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) is now calling for a four-party counter-coalition.

令人惊讶的是，中左翼社会民主党（SPD）现在呼吁建立四党反联盟。

That arrangement, however, would require the BSW’s participation—and BSW, in turn, insists that it will only negotiate if the AfD is included.

然而，这种安排需要 BSW 的参与，而 BSW 则坚持认为，只有在 AfD 加入的情况下，它才会进行谈判。

Gridlock appears guaranteed and might even force a new election.

僵局似乎已成定局，甚至可能迫使举行新的选举。

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on the Baltic coast, the AfD also came in first with 38.2% of the vote, but the popular incumbent Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, a Social Democrat, largely defended her ground by defining herself as the anti-AfD candidate.

在波罗的海沿岸的梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚，选择党也以 38.2% 的得票率位居第一，但受欢迎的现任部长兼总统、社会民主党人曼努埃拉·施韦西格 (Manuela Schwesig) 在很大程度上捍卫了自己的立场，将自己定义为反选择党候选人。

She is likely to form a government with the Greens and Die Linke.

她很可能与绿党和左翼党组建政府。

In Berlin , voters handed the win to Elif Eralp of Die Linke, which received 25.7% of the vote to 18.8% for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

在柏林，选民将胜利交给了左翼党的埃利夫·埃拉尔普，该党获得了 25.7% 的选票，而基督教民主联盟 (CDU) 则获得了 18.8% 的选票。

Berlin is currently governed by a CDU mayor in coalition with the SPD and is home to many old and new immigrant communities.

柏林目前由基民盟市长与社会民主党联合执政，是许多新老移民社区的所在地。

Eralp, too, cast herself as the anti-AfD candidate, and her campaign focused on affordability and the promise of widespread rental property expropriations, which appealed strongly to her party’s very young, urban, and diverse voter base.

埃拉尔普也将自己定位为反选择党候选人，她的竞选活动重点关注负担能力和广泛征用出租房产的承诺，这对她所在政党非常年轻、城市和多元化的选民群体有着强烈的吸引力。

Eralp’s obvious coalition partners would be the SPD and the Greens.

埃拉尔普明显的联盟伙伴是社会民主党和绿党。

But in addition to some real policy disagreements, Die Linke may become toxic for the other parties because of the persistent allegations of antisemitism within its ranks—and Eralp’s repeated evasiveness when questioned about this problem.

但除了一些真正的政策分歧之外，左翼党可能会对其他政党产生毒害，因为其内部不断有人指控反犹太主义，而埃拉尔普在被问及这个问题时一再回避。

The appearance of Berlin’s most notorious mafia clan head at one of Die Linke’s election parties—and his reported remark that he felt supported by Die Linke—does not help.

柏林最臭名昭著的黑手党头目出现在德国左翼党的一个选举政党中——据报道，他声称自己受到了德国左翼党的支持——这无济于事。

The outlook for a stable coalition is unclear.

稳定联盟的前景尚不明朗。

The other side of the meteoric rise of the right- and left-wing fringes of German politics is the crumbling of the centrist mainstream once represented by the country’s former “popular parties” (Volksparteien), the CDU and SPD.

德国政坛右翼和左翼边缘迅速崛起的另一面是，曾经以德国前“人民党”（Volksparteien）、基民盟和社民党为代表的中间派主流的崩溃。

For decades, the two parties routinely commanded joint majorities of more than 80% of the electorate.

几十年来，两党通常都控制着80%以上选民的共同多数。

None of the three states voting in September has ever been governed by a mayor or minister-president from a party other than the CDU or SPD.

九月投票的三个州都没有由基民盟或社民党以外的政党的市长或部长兼总统统治过。

For the Social Democrats, who have grown glumly accustomed to vote shares below 15%, the 35.5% brought in by Schwesig in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania offered a reminder of former glories.

对于已经习惯了投票率低于 15% 的社会民主党来说，施韦西格在梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州带来的 35.5% 的投票让他们想起了昔日的辉煌。

But the historic “ disaster ” of this election period, as Merz himself called it, belongs to the CDU.

但正如默茨本人所说，这次选举时期的历史性“灾难”属于基民盟。

The party lost a third of its support in Berlin, saw its vote share roughly halved in Saxony-Anhalt, and failed to clear the 5% parliamentary threshold in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania—the first time it has failed to win seats in any election since 1949.

该党在柏林失去了三分之一的支持率，在萨克森-安哈尔特州的选票份额大约减半，在梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州未能突破 5% 的议会门槛——这是自 1949 年以来该党首次在任何选举中未能赢得席位。

A triumphant Alice Weidel, the AfD’s national cochair, declared after the second and third elections that the AfD was now the CDU’s political heir.

德国选择党全国联合主席爱丽丝·韦德尔 (Alice Weidel) 得意洋洋，在第二次和第三次选举后宣布，选择党现在是基民盟的政治继承人。

(Not entirely unrelatedly, she also repeated her contention that Adolf Hitler was a “left-wing extremist.”)

（并非完全无关，她还重申了阿道夫·希特勒是“左翼极端分子”的论点。）

Nonetheless, the months of speculation—from the AfD, other parties, the media, and within the CDU itself—that Merz might have to step down as party leader or even as chancellor appear to have paused.

尽管如此，几个月以来，来自德国选择党、其他政党、媒体以及基民盟内部的关于梅尔茨可能不得不辞去党魁甚至总理职务的猜测似乎已经暂停。

Under Germany’s parliamentary system, it is possible for the head of government to lose a no-confidence vote and be replaced by the legislature without requiring new national elections.

在德国的议会制度下，政府首脑有可能在不信任投票中落败，并被立法机构取代，而无需重新举行全国选举。

Merz has historically low approval ratings and has alienated even some of his own party’s traditionally loyal base to the point of open revolt.

默茨的支持率处于历史低位，甚至疏远了本党一些传统上忠诚的基础，甚至到了公开反抗的地步。

But a letter of support from eight conservative minister-presidents and a forceful television appearance on election day, in which he acknowledged his government’s failings but doubled down on his reform program and his pledge to support Ukraine, has for now stemmed the tide.

但八位保守派部长兼总统的一封支持信以及选举日在电视上的强硬露面，他承认了政府的失败，但加倍强调了他的改革计划和支持乌克兰的承诺，目前已经阻止了这一浪潮。

Another no less potent reason may be the fact that none of his potential successors feel quite ready to mount an open challenge.

另一个同样有力的原因可能是，他的潜在继任者中没有一个人愿意公开挑战。

Merz and his CDU-SPD coalition must now deliver on their repeatedly stated contention that successful reforms and good government can sideline the extremists at both ends of the political spectrum.

默茨和他的基民盟-社会民主党联盟现在必须兑现他们反复声明的论点，即成功的改革和良好的政府可以使政治光谱两端的极端分子边缘化。

In particular, the chancellor has staked his authority on the implementation of a pension reform package that would raise the retirement age and add a capital-markets component to the traditional pay-as-you-go system.

特别是，德国总理将自己的权力押在实施养老金改革方案上，该方案将提高退休年龄，并在传统的现收现付制度中增加资本市场的组成部分。

In his defiant election-day speech, he called these and other reforms an “antidote to the authoritarian poison.” News of an unexpected improvement in German economic data provides the government a welcome boost.

在选举日的挑衅演讲中，他称这些改革和其他改革是“独裁毒药的解药”。德国经济数据意外改善的消息给政府带来了可喜的提振。

However, the surge of the extremist political fringes has exacerbated tensions within the centrist camp that Merz and his government will find difficult to contain.

然而，极端政治边缘势力的激增加剧了中间派阵营内部的紧张局势，默茨和他的政府将难以遏制。

Some in the CDU want to abolish the firewall ( Brandmauer ) against cooperation with the AfD, but that could very likely split the party.

基民盟中的一些人希望废除反对与选择党合作的防火墙（布兰德莫尔），但这很可能会分裂该党。

The SPD’s left wing wants to reopen the pensions reform package, while Schwesig and the state of Saxony’s conservative minister-president, Michael Kretschmer, are questioning German support for Ukraine .

社会民主党左翼希望重新启动养老金改革方案，而施韦西格和萨克森州保守党部长兼总统迈克尔·克雷奇默则质疑德国对乌克兰的支持。

The next hard test of Merz’s leadership will come with the legislature’s vote on the 2027 federal budget in October.

立法机构 10 月份对 2027 年联邦预算进行投票将是对默茨领导力的下一次严峻考验。

The AfD, meanwhile, polls at approximately 28% nationwide.

与此同时，德国另类选择党 (AfD) 的全国民意调查支持率约为 28%。

And if Siegmund, its candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, fails to form a governing coalition, the AfD will be spared from having to demonstrate that it is actually capable of governing—and it will continue betting on the centrist parties’ capability to self-destruct without outside help.

如果萨克森-安哈尔特州的候选人齐格蒙德未能组建执政联盟，选择党将不必证明自己确实有执政能力，并且将继续押注中间派政党在没有外部帮助的情况下自我毁灭的能力。