New post office policy could lead to the rejection of tens of thousands of mail-in ballots in November

A new Post Office policy that might sound like a technicality—one truck per day to rural post offices instead of two—could result in the rejection of tens of thousands of mail-in ballots in November.

邮局的一项新政策听起来像是技术性的——每天一卡车而不是两辆卡车运往农村邮局——可能会导致 11 月份数以万计的邮寄选票被拒绝。

In a new report , I examined the implications of the new rule, finding that the policy could lead to many thousands of ballots arriving late, and as a result being rejected.

在一份新报告中，我研究了新规则的影响，发现该政策可能会导致数千张选票迟到，并因此被拒绝。

My analysis estimates that the change could lead to between 43,000 and 55,000 additional rejections nationwide.

我的分析估计，这一变化可能会导致全国范围内额外拒绝 43,000 至 55,000 起案件。

While this number is small in comparison to the overall number of voters, which is around 158 million, many races around the country are extremely close, and a few votes either way might make all the difference.

虽然这个数字与大约 1.58 亿的选民总数相比很小，但全国各地的许多竞选结果都非常接近，无论哪种方式的几张选票都可能产生重大影响。

According to my analysis, the effects of the policy change will likely be most pronounced in rural areas in the western U.S.—areas where Post Office service is most likely to be less frequent due to the rule change and where many states automatically send mail ballots to registered voters.

根据我的分析，政策变化的影响可能在美国西部的农村地区最为明显，这些地区的邮局服务很可能因规则变化而减少，并且许多州会自动向登记选民发送邮寄​​选票。

Last year, the United States Postal Service (USPS) began rolling out a new policy, Regional Transportation Optimization (RTO), an effort to run its transportation network more efficiently.

去年，美国邮政服务 (USPS) 开始推出一项新政策：区域运输优化 (RTO)，旨在更有效地运营其运输网络。

RTO, which covers post offices that are more than 50 miles from the plant that processes their mail, is a response to steadily declining letter volumes: the amount of single-piece first-class mail has fallen precipitously in recent decades, from 57 billion in 1997 to 12 billion in 2023.

RTO 覆盖距离处理邮件的工厂超过 50 英里的邮局，这是对信件量稳步下降的回应：近几十年来，单件一级邮件的数量急剧下降，从 1997 年的 570 亿封减少到 2023 年的 120 亿封。

In the past, each Post Office had two pickups a day, one to drop off mail in the morning and a second later in the day to pick up additional mail.

过去，每个邮局每天有两次取件，一次在早上投递邮件，另一次在当天晚些时候收取其他邮件。

Under the new RTO policy, post offices more than 50 miles from their regional plant now have only one pickup/dropoff per day.

根据新的 RTO 政策，距离地区工厂 50 英里以上的邮局现在每天只有一次接送服务。

Carriers still collect mail according to the same schedule, but in many rural post offices, this mail is taken to the regional sorting center only once a day, rather than twice.

承运商仍然按照相同的时间表收集邮件，但在许多农村邮局，这些邮件每天只被送到地区分拣中心一次，而不是两次。

For mail posted or picked up by mail carriers later in the day, RTO will add an extra day to the delivery time.

对于当天晚些时候由邮递员投递或领取的邮件，RTO 会额外增加一天的投递时间。

It is important to note that this policy change is separate from recent and ongoing Trump administration efforts to restrict voting and mail-in voting, which have been subject to lengthy legal battles.

值得注意的是，这一政策变化与特朗普政府最近和正在进行的限制投票和邮寄投票的努力是分开的，这些努力一直受到漫长的法律斗争。

Although the Supreme Court recently declined to intervene in a federal injunction barring the Postal Service from carrying out the administration’s mail-voting provisions, the administration has signaled that it will continue to pursue this effort.

尽管最高法院最近拒绝干预禁止邮政局执行政府邮件投票规定的联邦禁令，但政府已表示将继续努力。

Roughly 121 million of the country’s 257 million voting-age adults in the 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C., live nearest to a post office that will now have once-a-day pickup.

美国 48 个邻近州和华盛顿特区的 2.57 亿投票年龄成年人中，约有 1.21 亿居住在距离邮局最近的地方，该邮局现在每天提供一次取件服务。

These post offices serve nearly half of all voting-age adults.

这些邮局为近一半的投票年龄成年人提供服务。

To estimate the effects of the rule change, I focused on three states, California, North Carolina, and Washington.

为了估计规则变更的影响，我重点关注了三个州：加利福尼亚州、北卡罗来纳州和华盛顿州。

These states each held primary elections earlier this year, and also report how many mail ballots voters in each county returned, how many were rejected, and why, with late arrival recorded as a separate category.

这些州今年早些时候分别举行了初选，并报告了每个县有多少邮寄选票选民返回、有多少邮寄选票被拒绝以及原因，并将迟到记录为单独的类别。

All three also report with the same level of detail for the 2022 and 2024 primaries, both of which were held before RTO was implemented.

这三者还对 2022 年和 2024 年初选进行了相同程度的详细报告，这两次初选都是在 RTO 实施之前举行的。

This allowed me to compare 2026 rejection rates with previous years.

这让我能够将 2026 年的拒绝率与往年进行比较。

In addition, because RTO does not affect all counties evenly, I can compare counties that are more and less exposed to the change.

此外，由于 RTO 不会均匀地影响所有县，因此我可以比较更多和更少受到变化影响的县。

My analysis found that in these three states, RTO doubled the rate of rejection for mail-in ballots.

我的分析发现，在这三个州，RTO 使邮寄选票的拒绝率增加了一倍。

The overall rate of mail-in ballots that were rejected for arriving late in California and Washington was around 1%; in North Carolina, this rate was several times higher.

邮寄选票因迟到加利福尼亚州和华盛顿州而被拒绝的总体比例约为 1%；在北卡罗来纳州，这一比例要高出几倍。

While it is difficult to measure how many voters might be affected by the RTO rule change nationwide, mail-in voting is widespread: Nearly one in three Americans voted by mail in the 2024 general election, a total of around 48 million votes.

虽然很难衡量全国范围内有多少选民会受到 RTO 规则变更的影响，但邮寄投票很普遍：在 2024 年大选中，近三分之一的美国人通过邮寄投票，总共约 4800 万张选票。

Around 40% of mail-in ballots in recent elections came from places covered by RTO.

在最近的选举中，大约 40% 的邮寄选票来自 RTO 覆盖的地区。

I make several recommendations for how to reduce the risk that the RTO policy will lead to increased ballot rejections.

我就如何降低 RTO 政策导致选票被拒绝增加的风险提出了几项建议。