AGOA was extended for two years—now the real work begins
President Trump has extended the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for two years, included in the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act ( signed on September 2).
特朗普总统已将《非洲增长与机会法案》(AGOA) 延长两年，并纳入《持续拨款和延期法案》（9 月 2 日签署）。
Last month, the Senate voted to extend AGOA with a 90-6 majority, and on September 1 the House acted similarly with a vote of 370-48.
上个月，参议院以 90 比 6 的多数投票决定延长 AGOA，9 月 1 日，众议院以 370 比 48 的投票结果采取了类似行动。
This is an achievement worth celebrating.
这是一项值得庆祝的成就。
For more than 25 years, AGOA has anchored the commercial relationship between the United States and Africa.
25 年多来，AGOA 巩固了美国和非洲之间的商业关系。
Its extension preserves duty-free access to the U.S. market for eligible African countries and demonstrates that engagement with Africa continues to command overwhelming bipartisan support.
其延期保留了符合条件的非洲国家免关税进入美国市场的权利，并表明与非洲的接触继续获得两党压倒性的支持。
By extending the legislation for only two years, however, Congress avoided a critical question: how to modernize AGOA.
然而，通过仅将立法延长两年，国会回避了一个关键问题：如何实现 AGOA 的现代化。
The governments, businesses, workers, trade associations, and civil-society organizations that helped secure the extension must now remain engaged in shaping what follows in 2028.
帮助确保延期的政府、企业、工人、行业协会和民间社会组织现在必须继续参与制定 2028 年的后续计划。
The modernization of AGOA should build on Africa’s preferential access to the U.S. market by transforming the U.S.-Africa commercial relationship into a mutually beneficial relationship based on investment, regional integration, digital trade, industrial development, and more reciprocal commercial relations.
AGOA的现代化应建立在非洲优先进入美国市场的基础上，将美非商业关系转变为基于投资、区域一体化、数字贸易、工业发展和更互惠的商业关系的互利关系。
To understand how stakeholders believe AGOA should evolve, I reviewed the 123 submissions made in response to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR)’s April request for public comments.
为了了解利益相关者认为 AGOA 应如何发展，我查阅了针对美国贸易代表办公室 (USTR) 4 月份的公众意见征询而提交的 123 份意见书。
Of those submissions, 81 came from U.S. companies, trade associations, labor organizations, NGOs, think tanks, and other entities.
在这些提交的材料中，81 份来自美国公司、行业协会、劳工组织、非政府组织、智囊团和其他实体。
Another 42 were submitted by African governments, embassies, manufacturers, trade organizations, and universities.
另外 42 份由非洲政府、大使馆、制造商、贸易组织和大学提交。
That breadth of participation matters.
参与的广度很重要。
AGOA’s future cannot be shaped only by policymakers in Washington or by the largest trade associations or companies.
AGOA 的未来不能仅由华盛顿的政策制定者或最大的贸易协会或公司来决定。
The firms that use its preferences, the workers whose livelihoods depend on them, the African manufacturers seeking to move up the value chain, and the officials responsible for implementing trade rules all bring experience that should inform the next phase.
利用其优惠的公司、生计依赖其的工人、寻求向价值链上游移动的非洲制造商以及负责实施贸易规则的官员都带来了可为下一阶段提供信息的经验。
My reading of the record leads to two conclusions.
通过阅读记录，我得出两个结论。
First, there is broad support for AGOA, but no single view of how it should be modernized.
首先，AGOA 得到了广泛的支持，但对于如何使其现代化却没有统一的观点。
Second, the disagreements are not peripheral.
其次，分歧并不是次要的。
They reveal the policy choices Congress and the administration must confront: policy certainty versus periodic political leverage, greater reciprocity versus AGOA’s development purpose, flexible global sourcing versus stronger African regional value chains, and access to critical minerals versus incentives for African processing and value addition.
它们揭示了国会和政府必须面对的政策选择：政策确定性与定期政治杠杆、更大互惠与 AGOA 的发展目的、灵活的全球采购与更强大的非洲区域价值链、以及获取关键矿产与非洲加工和增值的激励措施。
These are not reasons to delay modernization.
这些都不是推迟现代化的理由。
These perspectives need to be addressed and integrated over the next two years to ensure AGOA’s ongoing relevance.
这些观点需要在未来两年内得到解决和整合，以确保 AGOA 的持续相关性。
The clearest point of convergence in the submissions is the need for a long-term extension, generally between 10 and 15 years.
提交的意见中最明显的一致点是需要长期延期，通常在 10 到 15 年之间。
As the U.S. Chamber of Commerce put it , a 15-year extension would give the program the time required to strengthen investment and supply-chain resilience.
正如美国商会所说，延长 15 年将为该计划提供加强投资和供应链弹性所需的时间。
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies similarly argues for a 10- to 15-year reauthorization calibrated to private-sector capital-expenditure cycles.
保卫民主基金会同样主张根据私营部门资本支出周期进行 10 至 15 年的重新授权。
The National Retail Federation emphasizes that retailers depend on predictable and enforceable rules when making long-term sourcing and investment decisions.
全国零售联合会强调，零售商在做出长期采购和投资决策时依赖于可预测和可执行的规则。
African manufacturers face the same constraint: Companies cannot readily build factories, train workers, develop suppliers, or enter long-term contracts when market access may expire before those investments generate returns.
非洲制造商也面临着同样的限制：当市场准入可能在投资产生回报之前到期时，公司无法轻易建造工厂、培训工人、开发供应商或签订长期合同。
A two-year extension can preserve existing orders, but it is unlikely by itself to stimulate the next generation of manufacturing and industrial investment.
延长两年可以保留现有订单，但其本身不太可能刺激下一代制造业和工业投资。
That distinction is critical.
这种区别至关重要。
The extension protects the trade AGOA has already created, but it may not generate the additional investment that modernization is intended to produce.
延期保护了 AGOA 已经创建的贸易，但可能不会产生现代化预期产生的额外投资。
Labor organizations introduce another important dimension.
劳工组织引入了另一个重要方面。
The United Steelworkers did not oppose reauthorization but called for it to be paired with renewal of the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) program, a federal program to retrain and compensate businesses negatively impacted by trade agreements.
钢铁工人联合会并不反对重新授权，但呼吁将其与更新贸易调整援助（TAA）计划结合起来，这是一项联邦计划，旨在对受贸易协定负面影响的企业进行再培训和补偿。
The AFL-CIO also supported modernization alongside TAA.
AFL-CIO 还与 TAA 一起支持现代化。
Their submissions are a reminder that a durable trade framework must demonstrate benefits not only for firms and investors, but also for workers in the United States and Africa.
他们提交的意见提醒人们，持久的贸易框架必须不仅为公司和投资者带来好处，而且也为美国和非洲的工人带来好处。
The “lapse-and-restore” cycle surrounding trade preferences has real economic consequences.
围绕贸易优惠的“失效与恢复”循环具有实际的经济后果。
Neither China nor the European Union periodically turns its commercial relationship with Africa on and off.
中国和欧盟都不会定期开启和关闭与非洲的商业关系。
If the United States wants AGOA to support long-term investment, Congress will eventually have to align the timeframe of the legislation with the timeframe on which businesses make decisions.
如果美国希望《非洲增长机会法案》支持长期投资，国会最终必须将立法的时间表与企业决策的时间表相一致。
Many submissions position AGOA within intensifying global competition in Africa.
许多意见书都将《非洲增长和机会法案》置于非洲日益激烈的全球竞争之中。
That concern is well founded.
这种担忧是有根据的。
Two-way U.S.-Africa trade remains less than half its 2008 peak of $105 billion.
美非双向贸易额仍不到 2008 年 1050 亿美元峰值的一半。
China’s trade with Africa is roughly four times larger than that of the United States, and on May 1, 2026, China implemented a zero-tariff policy covering goods from 53 African countries.
中国与非洲的贸易额大约是美国的四倍，2026年5月1日，中国对来自53个非洲国家的商品实施零关税政策。
AGOA currently has 33 beneficiary countries.
AGOA目前有33个受益国。
China has also employed a “bundled and fast” infrastructure-financing model that the United States has struggled to match.
中国还采用了美国难以匹敌的“捆绑式快速”基础设施融资模式。
China and the European Union each account for approximately 20% of sub-Saharan Africa’s goods import, while India, Turkey, and countries in the Middle East are rapidly expanding their commercial presence.
中国和欧盟各占撒哈拉以南非洲地区商品进口的约20%，而印度、土耳其和中东国家正在迅速扩大其商业影响力。
The ONE Campaign warns that allowing AGOA to lapse would cede U.S. strategic, diplomatic, and economic influence to competitors by deepening their relationships with African markets.
ONE Campaign警告说，允许《非洲增长机会法案》失效将加深美国与非洲市场的关系，从而将美国的战略、外交和经济影响力让给竞争对手。
StarKist similarly argues that AGOA reinforces the broader U.S. presence on the continent.
StarKist 同样认为，AGOA 加强了美国在非洲大陆的更广泛存在。
Yet competition with China cannot be the principal rationale for U.S. engagement.
然而，与中国的竞争不能成为美国参与的主要理由。
African countries are not simply arenas in which outside powers compete.
非洲国家不仅仅是外部势力竞争的竞技场。
They are markets pursuing their own industrial, technological, and regional-integration ambitions.
它们是追求自己的工业、技术和区域一体化雄心的市场。
A modernized AGOA will be durable only if it offers a compelling proposition to both sides: greater commercial opportunity for U.S. firms and workers, and greater investment, productive capacity, employment, and value creation in Africa.
现代化的《非洲增长和机会法案》只有在向双方提供令人信服的主张时才能持久：为美国公司和工人提供更大的商业机会，并在非洲增加投资、生产能力、就业和价值创造。
The Corporate Council on Africa (CCA) argues that this will require programs that go “beyond AGOA” to address critical minerals, services, and the digital economy.
非洲企业委员会 (CCA) 认为，这需要“超越 AGOA”的计划来解决关键矿产、服务和数字经济问题。
CCA also recalls that AGOA was intended to encourage progress toward more reciprocal trade arrangements and that regional trade hubs were created to connect African and American businesses.
CCA 还回顾说，AGOA 的目的是鼓励在更加互惠的贸易安排方面取得进展，并建立区域贸易中心来连接非洲和美国企业。
The next framework should build on that ambition while recognizing a changed African landscape, particularly the continued implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
下一个框架应以这一雄心为基础，同时认识到非洲格局的变化，特别是非洲大陆自由贸易区（AfCFTA）的继续实施。
Modernization should support, rather than fragment, Africa’s effort to create a more integrated continental market.
现代化应该支持而不是分裂非洲创建更加一体化的大陆市场的努力。
A recurring theme, particularly among U.S. agricultural organizations, is that AGOA beneficiaries should provide greater access to African markets for American products.
一个反复出现的主题，特别是在美国农业组织中，是《非洲增长机会法案》受益者应该为美国产品提供更多进入非洲市场的机会。
The Meat Institute, whose member companies account for more than 95% of U.S. meat and poultry production, argues that several beneficiaries have sheltered inefficient domestic production from global competition.
肉类协会的成员公司占美国肉类和家禽产量的 95% 以上，该协会认为，一些受益者保护了低效的国内生产免受全球竞争的影响。
Its submission criticizes barriers in South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, and Namibia.
其提交的材料批评了南非、尼日利亚、安哥拉、科特迪瓦、加纳、肯尼亚和纳米比亚的障碍。
Rather than disengage, its argument is to use targeted reforms to expand trade.
它的论点不是脱离接触，而是利用有针对性的改革来扩大贸易。
The USA Poultry & Egg Export Council notes that the United States exported 336,000 metric tons of poultry products to AGOA-eligible countries in 2025, accounting for 10.1% of total U.S. poultry exports.
美国家禽和鸡蛋出口委员会指出，2025年美国向符合AGOA资格的国家出口了33.6万吨家禽产品，占美国家禽出口总量的10.1%。
While that represents significant growth since AGOA was enacted, the Council argues that exports remain below their potential.
尽管这代表了《非洲增长机会法案》颁布以来的显着增长，但理事会认为出口仍低于其潜力。
It points in particular to the preferential access European suppliers receive through Economic Partnership Agreements.
它特别指出欧洲供应商通过经济伙伴关系协议获得的优惠准入。
These concerns cannot be dismissed.
这些担忧不容忽视。
A sustainable U.S.-Africa commercial relationship must produce visible benefits on both sides.
可持续的美非商业关系必须给双方带来明显的利益。
But “reciprocity” needs to be defined with care.
但“互惠”的定义需要谨慎。
It can mean equal tariff concessions, the removal of specific non-tariff barriers, greater regulatory transparency, or a gradual transition toward negotiated trade agreements.
这可能意味着平等的关税减让、取消特定的非关税壁垒、更大的监管透明度或逐步过渡到谈判贸易协定。
These approaches would have very different consequences for economies at different levels of development.
这些方法将对不同发展水平的经济体产生截然不同的后果。
A modernized framework should distinguish between legitimate market access concerns and demands that could overwhelm emerging industries or undermine AGOA’s development objectives.
现代化框架应区分合理的市场准入问题和可能压倒新兴产业或破坏 AGOA 发展目标的要求。
Reciprocity should be calibrated, transparent, and linked to the capacity of individual economies.
互惠应该是经过校准的、透明的，并与各个经济体的能力挂钩。
It should also be developed through consultation with African governments and private-sector practitioners, rather than imposed as a uniform condition from Washington.
它还应该通过与非洲政府和私营部门从业者协商制定，而不是作为华盛顿的统一条件强加。
AGOA was designed for an era when international commerce was dominated by trade in physical goods.
AGOA 是为国际商业以实物商品贸易为主的时代而设计的。
It does not adequately reflect a global—and African—economy increasingly shaped by services, data flows, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence, and digitally enabled trade.
它没有充分反映日益受到服务、数据流、网络安全、人工智能和数字化贸易影响的全球和非洲经济。
The Information Technology Industry Council, which represents many of the largest U.S. technology companies, argues that AGOA needs to be brought into line with this new commercial reality.
代表许多美国最大科技公司的信息技术产业委员会认为，AGOA 需要符合这一新的商业现实。
The Coalition of Services Industries points out that Africa is already a significant market for digitally delivered services.
服务业联盟指出，非洲已经是数字化服务的重要市场。
In 2023, African economies exported $36 billion in digitally delivered services and imported $55 billion.
2023 年，非洲经济体出口了 360 亿美元的数字化服务，进口了 550 亿美元。
The Computer and Communications Industry Association contends that modernization offers an opportunity to address barriers to cross-border digital trade and investment.
计算机和通信行业协会认为，现代化为解决跨境数字贸易和投资壁垒提供了机会。
The Initiative for a Digital Africa, a network that includes African members, raises concerns about data-localization requirements, internet shutdowns, and discriminatory digital taxes, and suggests that a modernized AGOA can help reinforce an open digital environment that supports long-term U.S.-Africa digital connectivity.
数字非洲倡议是一个包括非洲成员的网络，它提出了对数据本地化要求、互联网关闭和歧视性数字税的担忧，并建议现代化的 AGOA 可以帮助加强支持美国与非洲长期数字连接的开放数字环境。
These concerns deserve consideration, but they should not be treated as the entire digital policy agenda.
这些担忧值得考虑，但不应将其视为整个数字政策议程。
Modernization must also account for African priorities involving digital sovereignty, domestic innovation, cybersecurity, affordable connectivity, and the development of local digital industries.
现代化还必须考虑到非洲的优先事项，包括数字主权、国内创新、网络安全、负担得起的连接以及当地数字产业的发展。
The objective should not simply be to remove regulations regarded as barriers by established technology companies.
目标不应该只是消除被老牌科技公司视为障碍的法规。
It should be to create trusted and interoperable digital markets that expand African participation as well as cross-border investment.
它应该是创建值得信赖和可互操作的数字市场，以扩大非洲的参与以及跨境投资。
The Center for Emerging Economies proposes a U.S.-Africa Digital Trade Working Group under AGOA to develop shared approaches to data governance, digital interoperability, and trade facilitation aligned with the AfCFTA Digital Trade Protocol.
新兴经济体中心提议在 AGOA 下成立美国-非洲数字贸易工作组，以制定与非洲大陆自由贸易区数字贸易协议相一致的数据治理、数字互操作性和贸易便利化的共享方法。
This proposal deserves serious consideration.
这个建议值得认真考虑。
Alignment with the AfCFTA would connect U.S. commercial policy to African-led integration rather than creating a parallel set of rules.
与非洲大陆自由贸易区的协调将把美国的商业政策与非洲主导的一体化联系起来，而不是制定一套平行的规则。
Such an approach would also be consistent with the African Union’s Digital Transformation Strategy, which seeks to use digital adoption to advance integration, inclusive growth and employment.
这种方法也符合非洲联盟的数字化转型战略，该战略旨在利用数字化推动一体化、包容性增长和就业。
Critical minerals have become a major U.S. priority since AGOA was last extended in 2015.
自 2015 年 AGOA 上次延期以来，关键矿产已成为美国的主要优先事项。
Numerous submissions propose using AGOA to strengthen supply-chain security.
许多意见建议使用 AGOA 来加强供应链安全。
The Climate Leadership Council recommends adding the U.S. Geological Survey’s list of critical minerals to AGOA-eligible products.
气候领导委员会建议将美国地质调查局的关键矿物清单添加到符合 AGOA 资格的产品中。
It also proposes preserving preferential access for critical mineral exports from countries that graduate from AGOA because they cross the program’s income threshold.
它还建议保留对脱离《非洲增长和机会法案》的国家的关键矿产出口的优惠准入，因为它们跨越了该计划的收入门槛。
Several submissions push the discussion beyond supply chain access toward African processing and value addition.
一些提交的意见将讨论从供应链准入转向非洲加工和增值。
Friends of the Congo proposes a new critical minerals processing tier that would provide enhanced treatment for semi-processed and refined minerals.
刚果之友提出了一个新的关键矿物加工层，该层将为半加工和精炼矿物提供强化处理。
The Diplomacy Lab Capstone project at American University similarly recommends extending duty-free treatment to value-added mineral products.
美利坚大学外交实验室顶点项目同样建议将免税待遇扩大到增值矿产品。
These proposals identify one of the central tests of modernization.
这些建议确定了现代化的核心考验之一。
Will a new framework principally help the United States diversify its access to raw materials, or will it also help African countries build processing capacity, develop skilled employment, and retain more of the value generated by their resources?
新框架主要是帮助美国实现原材料获取多元化，还是帮助非洲国家建设加工能力、发展技术就业并保留更多其资源产生的价值？
It needs to do both, but achieving this will require more than tariff preferences: It will require financing, reliable energy, infrastructure, technical capacity, and standards that facilitate responsible production.
它需要两者兼而有之，但实现这一目标需要的不仅仅是关税优惠：还需要融资、可靠的能源、基础设施、技术能力和促进负责任生产的标准。
AGOA preferences should therefore be linked more deliberately with the tools of the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the Export-Import Bank (Exim), and other U.S. agencies capable of financing commercially viable projects.
因此，AGOA 的优惠政策应更谨慎地与发展金融公司 (DFC)、进出口银行 (Exim) 和其他有能力为商业上可行的项目提供融资的美国机构的工具联系起来。
Without that implementation machinery, a critical minerals provision could change the origin of U.S. imports without changing the underlying economics of extraction.
如果没有这种实施机制，关键的矿产条款可能会改变美国进口的来源，而不会改变开采的基本经济。
The debate over AGOA’s Third-Country Fabric (TCF) Provision illustrates the choices confronting policymakers.
关于 AGOA 第三国结构 (TCF) 条款的争论说明了政策制定者面临的选择。
The provision allows apparel manufacturers in lesser-developed AGOA countries to use yarn and fabric from third countries while retaining duty-free access to the United States.
该规定允许欠发达国家的服装制造商使用来自第三国的纱线和织物，同时保留进入美国的免税准入。
It has helped African producers participate in global apparel supply chains even where fabric of the necessary scale, quality, price, or lead time is not available locally.
它帮助非洲生产商参与全球服装供应链，即使当地无法提供必要的规模、质量、价格或交货时间的面料。
Levi Strauss argues that AGOA’s textile and apparel provisions remain essential to continued investment.
李维·斯特劳斯认为，AGOA 的纺织和服装条款对于持续投资仍然至关重要。
The National Retail Federation similarly contends that the TCF rule is necessary because regional inputs are not always available on commercially viable terms.
全国零售联合会同样认为，TCF 规则是必要的，因为区域投入并不总是以商业上可行的条件提供。
Importantly, that assessment is shared by institutions closer to African production, including the African Coalition for Trade and the Kenya Association of Manufacturers .
重要的是，与非洲生产关系密切的机构（包括非洲贸易联盟和肯尼亚制造商协会）也认同这一评估。
Their submissions underscore that removing the provision too quickly could make African apparel less competitive, jeopardizing existing factories, orders, and jobs.
他们的意见书强调，过快取消该规定可能会降低非洲服装的竞争力，危及现有工厂、订单和就业机会。
The American Apparel & Footwear Association, which represents 1,100 brands and 3.6 million U.S. workers, adds that “the third-country provision helps to sustain and expand export opportunities for U.S. cotton growers, textile producers and related industries and the thousands of American farmers and workers they employ.”
代表 1,100 个品牌和 360 万美国工人的美国服装和鞋类协会补充道，“第三国条款有助于维持和扩大美国棉花种植者、纺织品生产商和相关行业以及他们雇用的数千名美国农民和工人的出口机会。”
Other U.S. textile manufacturers see the issue differently.
其他美国纺织品制造商对这个问题有不同的看法。
Milliken & Company, a South Carolina manufacturer of high-performance fabrics, favors AGOA modernization but argues that apparel produced with inputs from Bangladesh, China, India, and Pakistan should no longer receive preferential treatment.
南卡罗来纳州高性能面料制造商美利肯公司支持 AGOA 现代化，但认为使用孟加拉国、中国、印度和巴基斯坦原料生产的服装不应再受到优惠待遇。
Those countries provide approximately 80% of the fabric used in AGOA-eligible apparel.
这些国家提供大约 80% 符合 AGOA 资格的服装所用的面料。
The National Council of Textile Organizations shares concerns about third-country inputs, while the National Retail Federation calls for clearer rules and enforcement to prevent transshipment.
全国纺织组织理事会也对第三国投入表示担忧，而全国零售联合会则呼吁制定更明确的规则和执行措施，以防止转运。
The challenge is to balance the immediate competitiveness of African apparel production, the interests of U.S. cotton and textile producers, and the longer-term objective of building more integrated African industries.
面临的挑战是平衡非洲服装生产的直接竞争力、美国棉花和纺织品生产商的利益以及建立更加一体化的非洲工业的长期目标。
Simply choosing one constituency over another would not constitute modernization.
简单地选择一个选区而不是另一个选区并不能构成现代化。
The strongest message from the submissions is that AGOA should evolve from a program based principally on non-reciprocal tariff preferences into a modern commercial partnership.
提交的意见中最强烈的信息是，AGOA 应从主要基于非互惠关税优惠的计划发展成为现代商业伙伴关系。
This should consist of a long-term reauthorization, a calibrated approach to reciprocity, stronger alignment with the AfCFTA and African value chains, and a clear focus on how to leverage the digital economy to mutual benefit.
这应包括长期的重新授权、经过调整的互惠方法、与非洲大陆自由贸易区和非洲价值链的更紧密结合，以及明确关注如何利用数字经济实现互利。
A priority for the United States is to accelerate its commercial diplomacy to ensure agencies such as the DFC, Exim, and USTDA work in a seamless and time-efficient way to support American business and innovation in Africa in the AGOA context.
美国的首要任务是加速其商业外交，以确保 DFC、Exim 和 USTDA 等机构以无缝且高效的方式开展工作，在 AGOA 背景下支持美国在非洲的商业和创新。
The extension through 2028 provides a limited window to develop a future-oriented commercial and development framework for AGOA, but the work needs to begin now.
延期至 2028 年为开发面向未来的 AGOA 商业和发展框架提供了有限的窗口，但这项工作需要现在就开始。