Electability over ideology: Takeaways from the 2026 primaries

Campaigns & Elections Congress Political Parties Political Polarization Presidency U.S. Democracy

竞选与选举 国会 政党 政治两极分化 总统选举 美国民主

Over the years, congressional districts have become less competitive , with many becoming increasingly safe for one party or the other.

多年来，国会选区的竞争力已经减弱，许多选区对于某一党派或另一党派来说变得越来越安全。

As a result, interest in studying congressional primaries has increased, since the dynamics of congressional primaries—who runs, who wins, and the ideological fissures within each party—tell us a great deal about the future of government.

结果，人们对研究国会初选的兴趣有所增加，因为国会初选的动态——谁参选、谁获胜以及各党内部的意识形态分歧——告诉我们很多关于政府未来的信息。

Very few incumbents lose their primaries: In 2026, 13 lost (as of early September); in 2024, only four lost; and in 2022, 14 lost.

很少有现任者在初选中落败：2026 年，有 13 人落选（截至 9 月初）； 2024年，只有四人失败；到 2022 年，有 14 人失败。

Nonetheless, many members of Congress fear being “primaried.”

尽管如此，许多国会议员还是担心被“初选”。

The fear of facing a primary challenge can lead incumbent representatives and senators to anticipate potential threats to their seats and adjust their behavior accordingly.

由于担心面临主要挑战，现任众议员和参议员可能会预测其席位面临的潜在威胁，并相应地调整自己的行为。

This dynamic is one factor that researchers have identified as contributing to the political polarization that has become a prominent feature of contemporary American politics.

研究人员认为，这种动态是导致政治两极分化的因素之一，而政治两极分化已成为当代美国政治的一个突出特征。

Qualitative research by Elaine Kamarck and James Wallner found that members of Congress worry about the possibility of a primary challenge, believe contested primaries can damage their prospects in the general election, overestimate the significance of successful primary challenges, and maintain that changing their behavior can help prevent or defeat a challenger.

伊莱恩·卡马克和詹姆斯·沃尔纳的定性研究发现，国会议员担心初选挑战的可能性，认为有争议的初选可能会损害他们在大选中的前景，高估了成功初选挑战的重要性，并坚持认为改变自己的行为有助于防止或击败挑战者。

A December 2024 qualitative study by J.D.

J.D. 2024 年 12 月的一项定性研究

Rackey and Michael Thorning reached similar conclusions after interviewing members of Congress.

雷基和迈克尔·托宁在采访国会议员后得出了类似的结论。

Their research found that primary elections can influence both the congressional agenda and members’ voting decisions, while also shaping how members communicate with their constituents.

他们的研究发现，初选可以影响国会议程和议员的投票决定，同时也影响议员与选民的沟通方式。

In particular, members may adjust their messaging and tone in an effort to prevent or respond to primary challenges.

特别是，成员可以调整他们的消息和语气，以努力防止或应对主要挑战。

Taken together, this research suggests that primary challenges, whether actual or merely anticipated, can influence the behavior of members of Congress.

总的来说，这项研究表明，主要挑战，无论是实际的还是仅仅是预期的，都会影响国会议员的行为。

By shaping how representatives and senators approach legislation, voting, and communication with their constituents, the prospect of a primary challenge can also influence the broader political environment within each party’s House and Senate caucuses and ultimately affect the range of issues and policies considered by Congress.

通过塑造众议员和参议员处理立法、投票以及与选民沟通的方式，主要挑战的前景也可以影响各党参众两院核心小组内更广泛的政治环境，并最终影响国会考虑的问题和政策的范围。

In the past, we have studied the universe of congressional candidates in each party.

过去，我们研究了各党派的国会候选人范围。

For the 2026 cycle, we decided to concentrate on primary candidates from 33 congressional districts and 10 Senate races.

对于 2026 年周期，我们决定集中关注来自 33 个国会选区和 10 个参议院竞选的初选候选人。

We chose these districts and states because they were the most likely to change parties, making them the races where both Democrats and Republicans would be most likely to field their strongest candidates.

我们选择这些地区和州是因为它们最有可能改变政党，使民主党和共和党都最有可能派出最强候选人参加竞选。

To build our universe of competitive races, we drew on the Cook Political Report’s Partisan Voting Index (PVI), selecting districts with a PVI between D+2 and R+2.

为了构建竞争激烈的竞选世界，我们借鉴了库克政治报告的党派投票指数 (PVI)，选择了 PVI 在 D+2 和 R+2 之间的选区。

Because redistricting later pushed several initially qualifying districts outside that range, the composition of our competitive-race universe shifted over the course of the project, which began in January 2026.

由于后来重新划分选区，导致几个最初符合资格的选区超出了该范围，因此我们的竞赛宇宙的构成在 2026 年 1 月开始的项目过程中发生了变化。

We ended up with a sample of 300 candidates: 127 Democrats, 119 Republicans, and 54 third party/independent candidates.

我们最终得到了 300 名候选人的样本：127 名民主党候选人、119 名共和党候选人和 54 名第三方/独立候选人。

This marks the sixth iteration of the Brookings Primaries Project , following earlier studies in 2014, 2016, 2018, 2022, and 2024.

这标志着布鲁金斯学会初选项目继 2014 年、2016 年、2018 年、2022 年和 2024 年的早期研究之后的第六次迭代。

As in past years, we developed a coding sheet to systematically evaluate candidates.

与过去几年一样，我们开发了一份编码表来系统地评估候选人。

Throughout the 2026 primary season, a team of coders reviewed the websites, social media accounts, and public interviews of all 300 candidates who appeared on their party’s primary ballot in states and districts that fit our criteria for competitiveness.

在 2026 年初选期间，一组编码人员审查了所有 300 名候选人的网站、社交媒体账户和公开采访，这些候选人出现在符合我们竞争力标准的州和地区的政党初选中。

We gathered data on demographic characteristics, policy positions, and overall ideology.

我们收集了有关人口特征、政策立场和总体意识形态的数据。

To preserve inter-coder reliability, the team met regularly to discuss findings, resolve discrepancies, and ensure consistent candidate characterizations.

为了保持编码器间的可靠性，团队定期开会讨论调查结果、解决差异并确保候选者特征的一致性。

Candidates running in close congressional primaries are mostly white men with higher levels of education.

参加势均力敌的国会初选的候选人大多是受过高等教育的白人男性。

Nearly 72% of the candidates were men and 28% were women, a breakdown similar to what we found in previous years when we studied the entire universe of candidates.

近 72% 的候选人是男性，28% 是女性，这一细分与我们前几年研究整个候选人时发现的情况类似。

In our 2026 sample, however, women won at the same rate as men—a change from the previous cycle, when men won at a higher rate.

然而，在我们 2026 年的样本中，女性的获胜率与男性相同，这与上一个周期的情况有所不同，当时男性的获胜率更高。

With all the attention paid this year to finding candidates who are “authentic” and can talk to the average voter, the fact remains that this pool of candidates includes very few candidates whose highest level of education is a high school diploma (nearly 8% of the sample) and many candidates with advanced degrees (almost 46%).

尽管今年所有的注意力都放在寻找“真实”且能够与普通选民交谈的候选人上，但事实是，这个候选人库中最高教育水平为高中文凭的候选人很少（占样本的近 8%），而许多候选人拥有高级学位（近 46%）。

In past studies we have conducted of all primary voters, more of the African American candidates were Democrats than Republicans.

在过去我们对所有初选选民进行的研究中，非裔美国候选人中民主党人多于共和党人。

In this sample, however, Republicans slightly outnumbered Democrats among African American candidates—10.1% to 8.7%.

然而，在这个样本中，非洲裔美国候选人中共和党人的人数略多于民主党人——10.1%对8.7%。

Among Latino candidates, Democrats had a slight edge—13.4% to 7.6%.

在拉丁裔候选人中，民主党略有优势——13.4% 比 7.6%。

And, as in past years, more women ran in Democratic primaries than in Republican ones—37.8% to 23.5%.

而且，与过去几年一样，参加民主党初选的女性人数多于参加共和党初选的女性人数，分别为 37.8% 和 23.5%。

Primaries test the strength of factions within a political party: A faction is strong if many candidates run under its banner and if they win.

初选考验一个政党内部派系的实力：如果有许多候选人在其旗下参选并获胜，那么一个派系就很强大。

So, by looking at these candidates’ websites, social media, press coverage, and whether they were endorsed by a part of the party’s establishment, we were able to discern the ideological preferences of most candidates within their party.

因此，通过查看这些候选人的网站、社交媒体、新闻报道，以及他们是否得到党内部分人士的支持，我们能够辨别党内大多数候选人的意识形态偏好。

Some of these differences are small and require judgment calls.

其中一些差异很小，需要做出判断。

For instance, MAGA/Trump conservatives share many issue positions with mainstream conservatives; the difference lies in the degree to which the MAGA conservatives tout Trump and the MAGA movement.

例如，MAGA/特朗普保守派与主流保守派在许多问题上有共同立场；区别在于“MAGA”保守派吹捧特朗普和“MAGA”运动的程度。

Among Democrats, many progressives hold similar positions to democratic socialists on certain issues, but they don’t call themselves democratic socialists, nor do they tend to highlight the DSA in their campaign materials.

在民主党中，许多进步派在某些问题上与民主社会主义者持有相似的立场，但他们并不称自己为民主社会主义者，也不会在竞选材料中强调民主社会主义。

As Table 1 illustrates, in both parties, more mainstream or centrist candidates won their primaries in our selected races; MAGA/Trump conservatives won just over a quarter of their races (26.7%), and progressive candidates on the Democratic side won less than a fifth of their races (17.8%).

如表 1 所示，在两党中，更多主流或中间派候选人在我们选定的竞选中赢得了初选； MAGA/特朗普保守派赢得了略高于四分之一的竞选（26.7%），而民主党方面的进步候选人赢得了不到五分之一的竞选（17.8%）。

Out of five DSA candidates, only one won his primary—William Lawrence of Michigan, who was a DSA member until July 2026, when he allowed his membership to lapse in order to unite the party.

在五位 DSA 候选人中，只有一位赢得了初选——密歇根州的威廉·劳伦斯 (William Lawrence)，他在 2026 年 7 月之前一直是 DSA 成员，后来为了团结该党，他允许其会员资格失效。

This outcome was to be expected in competitive races, since voters tend to be more sensitive to electability there than in safe districts.

这种结果在竞争激烈的竞选中是可以预料到的，因为那里的选民往往比安全地区的选民对选举更加敏感。

Still, there are small differences between the parties.

尽管如此，各方之间仍存在细微分歧。

A 2024 study by Northwestern University’s Institute for Policy Research found that the two parties’ voters view electability differently: Democratic primary voters tend to interpret ideological moderation as a sign of electability, while Republican voters draw more heavily on candidates’ fundraising.

西北大学政策研究所 2024 年的一项研究发现，两党选民对选举的看法不同：民主党初选选民倾向于将意识形态温和视为选举的标志，而共和党选民则更看重候选人的筹款。

But just because the most far-right and the most far-left factions of the two major parties don’t win primaries as often as more mainstream candidates, it doesn’t mean they aren’t important.

但仅仅因为两大政党中最右翼和最左翼派别不像主流候选人那样经常赢得初选，并不意味着它们不重要。

As we’ve seen in the 119th Congress, a motivated faction such as the Freedom Caucus can stand in the way of legislation even when a majority of Congress supports it.

正如我们在第 119 届国会中看到的那样，即使大多数国会支持立法，像自由核心小组这样有动力的派系也可能会阻碍立法。

Although it is difficult to say how important endorsements are in determining outcomes, Trump endorsed 26 out of the 119 Republicans we looked at, and almost all of them (over 92%) won.

尽管很难说支持对决定结果有多重要，但特朗普支持了我们研究的 119 名共和党人中的 26 名，而且几乎所有人（超过 92%）都获胜了。

Of course, 12 of these were incumbents, and as we’ve seen year after year, incumbents almost always win their primaries.

当然，其中 12 人是现任者，正如我们年复一年所看到的，现任者几乎总是赢得初选。

On the Democratic side, only 10 candidates received the endorsement of a high-profile progressive like Sen.

在民主党方面，只有 10 名候选人获得了像参议员一样备受瞩目的进步人士的支持。

Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), though six of them won their primary races.

伯尼·桑德斯（佛蒙特州），尽管其中六人赢得了初选。

We also attempted to determine which issues were widely discussed on the campaign trail.

我们还试图确定哪些问题在竞选过程中得到了广泛讨论。

Not surprisingly, there were some major differences between candidates depending on party.

毫不奇怪，不同党派的候选人之间存在一些重大差异。

(Note: We did not code for candidate positions on data centers, since the issue emerged as a major one late in the primary season.

（注：我们没有对数据中心的候选人职位进行编码，因为这个问题在初选后期成为一个主要问题。

However, our colleagues Nicol Turner Lee and Darrell West have studied the issue as of August.)

然而，我们的同事 Nicol Turner Lee 和 Darrell West 截至 8 月已经研究了这个问题。）

Issue No. 1 is, of course, the economy, especially the cluster of issues known as “affordability.” It is the Achilles heel of the Republican Party heading into the November elections, which may explain why it was largely overlooked by Republicans: Only 23.5% defended the current administration’s actions on affordability, and none acknowledged any shortcomings in the administration’s handling of the issue.

第一个问题当然是经济，尤其是被称为“负担能力”的一系列问题。这是共和党在 11 月选举中的致命弱点，这或许可以解释为什么它在很大程度上被共和党人忽视：只有 23.5% 的人为本届政府在负担能力问题上的行动辩护，没有人承认政府在处理这一问题方面存在任何缺陷。

By contrast, nearly 56% of Democrats addressed inflation, with the vast majority criticizing the Trump administration for its inability to tackle a major campaign concern that had helped propel Trump to victory.

相比之下，近 56% 的民主党人解决了通货膨胀问题，其中绝大多数人批评特朗普政府未能解决帮助特朗普获胜的主要竞选问题。

Democrats will likely seek to emphasize affordability heading into the general election, as voters continue to feel the effects of rising prices at the grocery store and the gas pump.

民主党人可能会在大选前强调负担能力，因为选民继续感受到杂货店和加油站价格上涨的影响。

Some candidates have already addressed it in the primaries.

一些候选人已经在初选中解决了这个问题。

Rebecca Bennett , a Democrat who is running to represent New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, emphasized in her campaign materials that “from childcare to groceries, it feels like the price of everything has gone up.

竞选新泽西州第七国会选区代表的民主党人丽贝卡·贝内特 (Rebecca Bennett) 在竞选材料中强调，“从儿童保育到食品杂货，感觉所有东西的价格都上涨了。

Rebecca’s family knows what it’s like to deal with rising prices, and she knows that families across our district are feeling it too.

丽贝卡的家人知道应对物价上涨的感受，她也知道我们地区的家庭也有同感。

It’s time for both parties to work together to make life in New Jersey more affordable for all of us.” Expect more language like this from Democrats looking to demonstrate that they understand the crisis and, unlike some of their opponents, are willing to discuss it.

现在是双方共同努力，让我们所有人都能更负担得起新泽西州生活的时候了。”预计民主党人会出现更多这样的言论，希望表明他们了解这场危机，并且与一些对手不同，他们愿意讨论这一问题。

Another impactful issue for Democrats was health care.

对民主党有影响的另一个问题是医疗保健。

Ninety-four percent of Democratic candidates addressed health care, an issue that was especially important in helping them take back the House in 2018.

94% 的民主党候选人谈到了医疗保健问题，这一问题对于帮助他们在 2018 年夺回众议院席位尤为重要。

Nearly 60% of Democratic candidates wanted to expand, reform, and protect the Affordable Care Act, Medicare, and Medicaid, while another 32% advocated Medicare for All.

近 60% 的民主党候选人希望扩大、改革和保护《平价医疗法案》、医疗保险和医疗补助，而另外 32% 的候选人则主张全民医疗保险。

Medicare for All, a rallying point for the party’s left flank, remains a minority view among candidates in competitive races, meaning Democrats would face an uphill battle on the issue if they regain the majority.

全民医疗保险是该党左翼的一个集结点，但在竞争激烈的竞选中，候选人中仍然只有少数人持这种观点，这意味着如果民主党重新获得多数席位，他们将在这个问题上面临一场艰苦的战斗。

Nearly half of Republicans ignored health care, and among those who talked about it, most were concerned with controlling spending.

近一半的共和党人忽视了医疗保健，而在谈论这个问题的人中，大多数人都关心控制支出。

Immigration has been the most salient issue in the two years since the last national election, as evidenced by the fact that very few candidates in swing districts could ignore it.

自上次全国大选以来，移民问题一直是两年来最突出的问题，摇摆选区的候选人很少能够忽视这一问题。

Among the Democrats, the vast majority staked out positions supporting comprehensive immigration reform.

在民主党中，绝大多数人表明了支持全面移民改革的立场。

Interestingly, though, the few who took more conservative positions did well.

但有趣的是，少数采取更保守立场的人表现良好。

At the other end of the spectrum, none of the Democratic candidates supported open borders, although Republican political ads on the issue would suggest otherwise.

另一方面，没有一位民主党候选人支持开放边界，尽管共和党关于这个问题的政治广告会提出相反的建议。

Ironically, the one candidate in a swing district who did support open borders ran in the Republican Senate primary in New Hampshire: Tom Alciere, an extreme libertarian .

具有讽刺意味的是，摇摆选区唯一支持开放边界的候选人参加了新罕布什尔州共和党参议院初选：汤姆·阿尔西埃，一位极端自由主义者。