In 2026 governor races, local issues rival national trend
Campaigns & Elections Political Parties Political Polarization Presidency Public Opinion
竞选与选举 政党 政治两极分化 总统选举 公众舆论
All politics is local—except when it isn’t.
所有政治都是地方性的——除非它不是地方性的。
In principle, contests for governor are rooted in state concerns.
原则上，州长竞选源于各州的担忧。
But wave elections affect every race on the ballot.
但浪潮选举会影响选票上的每一个种族。
The losing side often suffers from demoralization and lower turnout among its regular supporters.
失败的一方往往会士气低落，其固定支持者的投票率也较低。
Past wave elections are instructive.
过去的浪潮选举具有启发意义。
Republicans flipped 12 governorships in the 2010 red wave , netting six, including the (then and in some cases still) swing states of Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.
共和党在 2010 年的红色浪潮中翻转了 12 个州长职位，赢得了 6 个州长职位，其中包括（当时和某些情况下仍然）佛罗里达州、俄亥俄州、密歇根州、威斯康星州、宾夕法尼亚州和爱荷华州等摇摆州。
The GOP’s 2010 sweep, reinforced by further gains in 2014 and 2016, had a long afterlife in the form of control over redistricting, affecting both congressional and state legislative seats.
共和党在 2010 年的大获全胜，加上 2014 年和 2016 年的进一步胜利，以重新划分选区的控制权为形式，影响了国会和州立法席位，从而获得了长期的胜利。
Democrats regained much of the ground they had lost in their own 2018 wave election.
民主党收复了在 2018 年浪潮选举中失去的大部分阵地。
Seven states replaced GOP governors with Democrats that year —among them Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada.
那一年，有七个州用民主党取代了共和党州长，其中包括密歇根州、威斯康星州和内华达州。
As a result, the country is split nearly evenly going into this year’s elections, with 26 governorships held by Republicans and 24 by Democrats.
因此，在今年的选举中，全国各州的选举结果几乎平分秋色，其中 26 个州长职位由共和党占据，24 个州长职位由民主党占据。
The Republican advantage is more pronounced when comparing each party’s “trifectas”—states in which a single party controls the governorship and both houses of the legislature.
在比较各党的“三连胜”（即一个政党控制州长职位和立法机构参众两院的州）时，共和党的优势更加明显。
Currently, 23 states are governed by Republican trifectas, 16 by Democratic trifectas, and 11 states have divided government.
目前，有23个州由共和党三连胜统治，16个州由民主党三连胜统治，还有11个州实行分治政府。
The 36 states electing governors in 2026 are evenly split between Democratic and Republican incumbents, and roughly a third of them are seen as competitive.
2026 年选举州长的 36 个州在现任州长中民主党和共和党各占一半，其中大约三分之一被视为具有竞争性。
When it comes to trifectas, the government relations firm MultiState sees 12 states in play.
说到三连胜，政府关系公司 MultiState 认为有 12 个州在发挥作用。
Trifectas are at risk of being broken in five states, four of them currently controlled by Republicans.
三连胜在五个州面临被打破的风险，其中四个州目前由共和党控制。
New trifectas could be established in seven states.
可以在七个州建立新的三连胜。
Democrats have trifecta opportunities in Minnesota, Nevada, and Pennsylvania; Republicans have opportunities in Kansas, and three states, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, are up for grabs.
民主党在明尼苏达州、内华达州和宾夕法尼亚州拥有三连胜的机会；共和党在堪萨斯州有机会，亚利桑那州、密歇根州和威斯康星州这三个州也有机会争夺。
Democrats are bullish on their opportunities for offense in what current polling suggests could be a wave year.
民主党人看好他们在当前民调显示可能是浪潮之年的进攻机会。
But this year’s battleground extends deep into red-leaning terrain.
但今年的战场深入到了红色倾向的地区。
Democrats will be defending governorships in five states that President Trump won in 2024—Arizona, Kansas, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
民主党将捍卫特朗普总统在 2024 年赢得的五个州的州长职位——亚利桑那州、堪萨斯州、威斯康星州、密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州。
Only two Republican-held governorships are in states carried by Kamala Harris, New Hampshire and Vermont, and only New Hampshire is seen as potentially competitive.
只有卡马拉·哈里斯担任的州、新罕布什尔州和佛蒙特州有两个共和党控制的州长职位，而且只有新罕布什尔州被认为具有潜在竞争力。
What follows is an assessment of competitive races, our judgements based on polling, reporting, and the early September projections of the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball based at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
以下是对竞争性竞选的评估，我们的判断基于民意调查、报告以及库克政治报告和弗吉尼亚大学政治中心萨巴托水晶球的九月初预测。
With Republican Gov.
与共和党州长。
Brian Kemp term-limited, Georgia Democrats hope to win a gubernatorial contest for the first time since 1998.
布莱恩·肯普 (Brian Kemp) 任期有限，佐治亚州民主党希望自 1998 年以来首次赢得州长竞选。
In an expensive and contentious GOP primary, health care executive Rick Jackson defeated Lieutenant Gov.
在一场昂贵且充满争议的共和党初选中，医疗保健主管里克·杰克逊击败了副州长。
Burt Jones in a runoff.
伯特·琼斯在决选中。
Republican divisions and the strong Senate campaign being waged by incumbent Democratic Sen.
共和党的分歧和现任民主党参议员发起的强有力的参议院竞选活动。
Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) have fueled the Democrats’ hopes for Keisha Lance Bottoms, a former mayor of Atlanta.
佐治亚州民主党人乔恩·奥索夫 (Jon Ossoff) 点燃了民主党对亚特兰大前市长凯莎·兰斯·博顿斯 (Keisha Lance Bottoms) 的希望。
If elected, Bottoms would break the Georgia GOP’s governing trifecta and would become the first Black woman elected governor of any state .
如果当选，巴托姆斯将打破佐治亚州共和党的执政三连胜，并将成为任何州第一位当选的黑人女性州长。
Polling has shown Bottoms narrowly leading Jackson.
民意调查显示，巴托姆斯以微弱优势领先杰克逊。
Despite trending red in the Trump era, Iowa hosts a highly competitive race to succeed retiring Gov.
尽管爱荷华州在特朗普时代呈红色趋势，但爱荷华州仍举办了一场竞争激烈的竞选活动，以成功退休州长。
Kim Reynolds.
金·雷诺兹.
State Auditor Rob Sand, currently Iowa’s only statewide elected Democrat, is running against businessman Zach Lahn, who won an upset victory over a splintered Republican field.
州审计员罗布·桑德（Rob Sand）是爱荷华州目前唯一一位全州当选的民主党人，他的对手是商人扎克·兰（Zach Lahn），后者在分裂的共和党阵营中意外获胜。
Lahn touts his business acumen and outsider appeal as a devotee of Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr.’s Make America Healthy Again movement.
拉恩吹捧自己作为卫生与公共服务部长小罗伯特·肯尼迪“让美国再次健康”运动的忠实拥护者的商业头脑和局外人的吸引力。
At the same time, Sand has taken aim at corruption, political complacency, and gerontocracy in both parties.
与此同时，桑德也将矛头指向两党的腐败、政治自满和老年统治。
But in an indicator of the local issues that still have outsize impacts in gubernatorial races, one of the summer’s biggest issues for both campaigns has been local water quality and elevated cancer rates associated with agricultural runoff.
但从对州长竞选仍有巨大影响的地方问题来看，夏季两场竞选活动面临的最大问题之一是当地水质和与农业径流相关的癌症发病率升高。
Recent polling has put Sand ahead, and in mid-August, Cook shifted its rating of the race in Sand’s favor.
最近的民意调查显示桑德领先，八月中旬，库克将其对竞选的评级转向对桑德有利。
It’s striking that Sand has run almost as if he were an independent.
令人惊讶的是，桑德的竞选方式几乎就像一个独立人士一样。
His campaign distributes T-shirts with the words “Redder” and “Bluer” crossed off and emblazoned with “Truer.
他的竞选活动分发了“Redder”和“Bluer”字样的T恤，上面划掉了“Redder”和“Bluer”字样，并印有“Truer”。
Better.”
更好了。”
The race for the Democratic nomination to succeed incumbent Gov.
接替现任州长的民主党提名竞选。
Tony Evers erupted into chaos in late July after both Lieutenant Gov.
7月下旬，在副州长托尼·埃弗斯 (Tony Evers) 和副州长托尼·埃弗斯 (Tony Evers)
Sara Rodriguez and 2022 Senate nominee Mandela Barnes ended their campaigns .
萨拉·罗德里格斯 (Sara Rodriguez) 和 2022 年参议院候选人曼德拉·巴恩斯 (Mandela Barnes) 结束了竞选活动。
This upheaval left Francesca Hong, a state representative from Madison and a democratic socialist, with a commanding lead shortly before the primary.
这一剧变使麦迪逊州代表、民主社会主义者弗朗西斯卡·洪(Francesca Hong)在初选前不久取得了压倒性的领先优势。
Democratic worries that Hong could cost the party a crucial swing-state governorship drove a last-minute consolidation behind Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who had previously dropped his campaign but reentered the race at the urging of Evers.
民主党担心洪可能会让该党失去关键的摇摆州州长职位，因此在最后一刻巩固了密尔沃基县行政长官戴维·克劳利(David Crowley)的地位，后者此前曾放弃竞选，但在埃弗斯的敦促下重新参加竞选。
Crowley’s narrow victory sets up a competitive race with Republican Representative Tom Tiffany, who easily won his primary after picking up an endorsement from President Trump.
克劳利以微弱优势获胜，与共和党众议员汤姆·蒂芙尼展开了激烈的竞争，后者在得到特朗普总统的支持后轻松赢得了初选。
In the limited polling since the primary, Crowley has led Tiffany by 3 to 4 points in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling average.
在初选以来的有限民意调查中，克劳利在 Real Clear Politics (RCP) 民调平均值中领先蒂芙尼 3 至 4 个百分点。
Republican Gov.
共和党州长
Joe Lombardo flipped the governor’s mansion for the GOP in 2022 but now faces a strong challenge from Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford, making him the most endangered Republican incumbent of the cycle.
乔·隆巴多 (Joe Lombardo) 在 2022 年为共和党推翻了州长官邸，但现在面临民主党司法部长亚伦·福特 (Aaron Ford) 的强劲挑战，使他成为本周期最危险的共和党现任议员。
Lombardo has governed fairly pragmatically alongside Nevada’s Democratic legislature, and he enters the general election with a massive fundraising advantage .
隆巴多与内华达州民主党立法机构一起相当务实地执政，他以巨大的筹款优势进入大选。
Although Trump carried Nevada in 2024, his approval rating in the state has slumped into the mid-30s , and Democrats hope to tie Lombardo to the president.
尽管特朗普在2024年拿下内华达州，但他在该州的支持率已跌至30多岁，民主党人希望将隆巴多与总统捆绑在一起。
Ford’s campaign has vigorously courted Latino voters, who make up almost a third of the state’s population and shifted sharply toward Trump in 2024.
福特的竞选活动大力讨好拉丁裔选民，他们几乎占该州人口的三分之一，并在 2024 年急剧转向特朗普。
Republican-sponsored polls have given Lombardo a lead, but Democratic-leaning and independent pollsters have shown a tight race.
共和党发起的民意调查显示隆巴多领先，但倾向民主党的独立民意调查机构显示出势均力敌的竞争。
In Ohio, businessman and 2024 Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is running to succeed term-limited Gov.
在俄亥俄州，商人兼 2024 年共和党总统候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米 (Vivek Ramaswamy) 正在竞选接替任期有限的州长。
Mike DeWine but is locked in an unexpectedly competitive race with former Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton.
迈克·德温 (Mike DeWine) 与前俄亥俄州卫生部长艾米·阿克顿 (Amy Acton) 展开了一场出人意料的竞争。
Ramaswamy is a staunch Trump backer who won the president’s early endorsement, a fact that the candidate is highlighting in a state that the president has won three times.
拉马斯瓦米是特朗普的坚定支持者，他早期就赢得了总统的支持，这位候选人在总统已经三次获胜的州强调了这一事实。
Ramaswamy has also maintained a significant edge in fundraising and has so far massively outspent Acton in advertising.
拉马斯瓦米在筹款方面也保持着显着优势，迄今为止在广告方面的支出远远超过了阿克顿。
But Acton has run a vigorous campaign in a state that may be in a mood for change at the state level after 16 years of Republican leadership.
但阿克顿在这个州开展了一场强有力的竞选活动，在共和党领导了 16 年之后，该州可能有意愿在州一级进行变革。
She has attacked Ramaswamy for his role in DOGE and past comments threatening to cut Medicare, though her role in Ohio’s COVID-19 response has also drawn criticism from Republicans.
她攻击拉马斯瓦米在 DOGE 中的角色以及过去威胁削减医疗保险的言论，尽管她在俄亥俄州应对 COVID-19 的过程中所扮演的角色也招致了共和党人的批评。
RCP’s polling average shows the race essentially tied.
RCP 的民意调查平均值显示，这场竞选基本势均力敌。
In one of the marquee races of the 2022 cycle, then-Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs secured a narrow victory, partly because of her polarizing opponent, news anchor and far-right activist Kari Lake.
在 2022 年周期的一场重要竞选中，时任亚利桑那州国务卿凯蒂·霍布斯 (Katie Hobbs) 以微弱优势获胜，部分原因是她的两极分化的对手、新闻主播兼极右翼活动人士卡里·莱克 (Kari Lake)。
Hobbs will again face a controversial opponent in Republican Representative and former Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Biggs, though he has made efforts to moderate his rhetoric.
霍布斯将再次面对共和党众议员、前自由核心小组主席安迪·比格斯这一有争议的对手，尽管他已努力缓和自己的言论。
Hobbs’ recent decision to select the city of Mesa’s former Republican mayor , John Giles, as her running mate could be read as an appeal to those same moderate voters.
霍布斯最近决定选择梅萨市的前共和党市长约翰·吉尔斯作为她的竞选伙伴，这可以被解读为对这些温和派选民的呼吁。
Hobbs currently has a solid lead in RCP’s polling average .
霍布斯目前在 RCP 的民调平均值中遥遥领先。