Trump’s approval slump and candidate quality drive 2026 Senate races
Campaigns & Elections Congress Political Parties Political Polarization Presidency Public Opinion
竞选与选举 国会 政党 政治两极分化 总统选举 公众舆论
The opposition party typically enjoys an advantage in midterm elections.
反对党通常在中期选举中享有优势。
Its voters are highly mobilized, and often angry, as are many Democrats this year, while rank-and-file members of the president’s party are either satisfied with success or dispirited by failure, as they are this year.
它的选民高度动员，而且常常感到愤怒，就像今年的许多民主党人一样，而总统所在政党的普通成员要么对成功感到满意，要么因失败而沮丧，就像今年一样。
Donald Trump’s problems are having a major, perhaps decisive, impact on the 2026 race for control of the Senate.
唐纳德·特朗普的问题正在对 2026 年参议院控制权竞选产生重大甚至是决定性影响。
Driven by high prices and an unfinished war with Iran, his national job approval stands at just 39.6% compared to a disapproval rating of 57.0%—a net negative of 17.4%—and it is even worse in several states that could make the difference between a Republican and Democratic Senate majority after the midterms.
在高物价和与伊朗未结束的战争的推动下，他的全国就业支持率仅为 39.6%，而反对率则为 57.0%（净负率为 17.4%），而且在中期选举后可能影响共和党和民主党参议院多数席位的几个州，情况更糟。
Among Americans who voted in 2024, Trump’s net job approval has declined by an average of 20 points in the states with competitive Senate contests this year.
在2024年投票的美国人中，特朗普的净工作支持率在今年参议院竞争激烈的州平均下降了20个百分点。
But while the president’s public standing shapes the playing field, history tells us not to ignore the quality of the candidates and the campaigns they run, because they can make the difference between victory and defeat in close elections.
尽管总统的公众地位决定了竞争环境，但历史告诉我们不要忽视候选人的质量和他们竞选活动的质量，因为他们可以在势均力敌的选举中决定胜负。
There is an interaction between the president’s political standing and candidate quality.
总统的政治地位和候选人素质之间存在相互作用。
When the president has been weakened, it is easier for the opposition to recruit strong candidates.
当总统被削弱时，反对派更容易招募到强有力的候选人。
Because Trump’s problems have been apparent since early in his second term, Democrats have been able to recruit some exceptionally strong candidates in key states.
由于特朗普的问题自第二任期初期就已显现出来，民主党得以在关键州招募到一些异常强大的候选人。
Meanwhile, Republicans ended up with some mediocre candidates, in part because the president has endorsed individuals based on their loyalty to him rather than on their electoral strength.
与此同时，共和党最终选出了一些平庸的候选人，部分原因是总统根据个人对他的忠诚度而不是他们的选举实力来支持他们。
In North Carolina, Roy Cooper, a popular two-term Democratic governor, got into the race early and faced no serious primary opposition.
在北卡罗来纳州，受欢迎的两任民主党州长罗伊·库珀(Roy Cooper)很早就参加了竞选，并且没有遇到严重的初选反对。
He is running against Mike Whatley, whose background includes being chair of the Republican National Committee, a position linking him firmly to Trump, and being a lobbyist for Duke Energy in a year when energy is a key part of the affordability issue, which is front and center in voters’ minds.
他的对手是迈克·沃特利(Mike Whatley)，后者的背景包括担任共和党全国委员会主席，这个职位将他与特朗普牢牢地联系在一起，并且在能源成为负担能力问题关键部分的一年里担任杜克能源公司的游说者，而负担能力问题是选民心目中的首要和中心问题。
For these reasons, Cooper holds a significant lead in a state that Trump carried in three straight presidential contests.
由于这些原因，库珀在特朗普连续三届总统竞选中占据优势的州中占据显着领先地位。
Another strong recruit was Sherrod Brown, who represented Ohio in the Senate for three terms before his defeat in 2024, when he could not overcome Trump’s 11-point victory in the state.
另一位实力强劲的新人是谢罗德·布朗(Sherrod Brown)，他在参议院代表俄亥俄州连任三届，但在2024年失败，当时他无法战胜特朗普在该州的11个百分点的胜利。
Recent polling by Fox News shows Brown with a small lead overall against John Husted, who was appointed to the Senate to fill the seat that JD Vance vacated to assume the vice presidency.
福克斯新闻最近的民意调查显示，布朗在总体上以微弱优势领先于约翰·赫斯特德，约翰·赫斯特德被任命为参议院议员，以填补 JD 万斯担任副总统时空出的席位。
In an election where the voters view both parties with disdain, Brown has an important advantage: More than half of the electorate says that Brown is “not very close” or “not at all close” to the Democratic establishment.
在选民对两党都蔑视的选举中，布朗有一个重要优势：超过一半的选民表示布朗与民主党建制派“不太接近”或“一点也不接近”。
Meanwhile, Husted is seen as extremely close to Donald Trump —not an advantage in an election year when Trump is so unpopular.
与此同时，赫斯特德被认为与唐纳德·特朗普极为接近——在特朗普如此不受欢迎的选举年，这并不是一个优势。
Like his Republican counterpart in North Carolina, he is seen as close to an energy industry scandal .
与北卡罗来纳州的共和党同行一样，他被视为接近能源行业丑闻。
And he has a history of support for building data centers in Ohio, putting him on the wrong side of one of the emerging issues for the 2026 midterms.
他一直支持在俄亥俄州建设数据中心，这让他在 2026 年中期选举中出现的一个新问题上站在了错误的一边。
In Georgia, the incumbent Democratic Sen.
在佐治亚州，现任民主党参议员。
Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) has to hold this seat for the Democrats if they have any hope of taking back the Senate.
如果民主党有希望夺回参议院，乔恩·奥索夫（佐治亚州民主党人）就必须为民主党保留这个席位。
So far, his performance has been so solid that he has now catapulted onto the list of people who are mentioned as 2028 presidential candidates.
到目前为止，他的表现非常出色，已经跻身 2028 年总统候选人名单。
Although Ossoff is Jewish and pro-Israel in a year where antipathy to Israel has grown throughout the electorate, his November 2024 vote to stop the sale of some weapons systems to Israel may show some voters that he is his own man.
尽管奥索夫是犹太人且亲以色列，今年选民对以色列的反感日益增强，但他在 2024 年 11 月投票停止向以色列出售某些武器系统可能会向一些选民表明，他是自己的人。
His opponent, Rep.
他的对手，众议员。
Mike Collins (R-Ga.), is very much a MAGA candidate who has been accused of having an aide with ties to white nationalists and neo-Nazis.
乔治亚州共和党人迈克·柯林斯(Mike Collins)在很大程度上是一位“让MAGA”候选人，他被指控拥有一名与白人民族主义者和新纳粹分子有联系的助手。
The fact that James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas, is competitive in the deep red state of Texas ( Cook Political Report just moved this race into the “toss-up” category) reflects Trump’s newfound unpopularity in the state.
得克萨斯州参议员民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）在得克萨斯州的深红色州具有竞争力（库克政治报告刚刚将这场竞选移至“难以预测”的类别），这一事实反映了特朗普在该州新发现的不受欢迎程度。
But in addition to national and state trends working to his advantage, he has run a strong campaign.
但除了国家和州的趋势对他有利之外，他还开展了一场强有力的竞选活动。
Meanwhile, Republicans ended up with Ken Paxton, a candidate dogged by scandal .
与此同时，共和党最终选择了饱受丑闻困扰的肯·帕克斯顿(Ken Paxton)候选人。
Trump endorsed Paxton as a “true MAGA warrior” over incumbent Republican Sen.
特朗普认可帕克斯顿是一位“真正让美国再次伟大的战士”，而不是现任共和党参议员。
John Cornyn (R-Texas), who had been critical of Trump, especially after Jan.
约翰·科宁（德克萨斯州共和党人）一直批评特朗普，尤其是在 1 月 1 日之后。
6.
6.
In a conservative and religious part of the country, Talarico’s religious faith reads as genuine, and he is artful in using it on the stump and in his campaign ads .
在这个国家的保守和宗教地区，塔拉里科的宗教信仰被认为是真诚的，他巧妙地在树桩和竞选广告中使用它。
(His unusual views on the nature of God and their implications for gender issues may prove to be vulnerabilities, however.) In contrast, Paxton has been accused of corruption , been impeached by a Republican-dominated state legislature, and caught up in an ugly divorce .
（然而，他对上帝本质及其对性别问题的影响的不同寻常的看法可能被证明是脆弱的。）相比之下，帕克斯顿被指控腐败，被共和党主导的州立法机构弹劾，并陷入丑陋的离婚之中。
His fundraising efforts have been largely unsuccessful , and the Republican Party will be forced to devote as much as $100 million raised nationally to keep him competitive.
他的筹款努力基本上不成功，共和党将被迫在全国范围内投入多达 1 亿美元的资金来保持他的竞争力。
In two states critical to Democrats’ hopes for a Senate majority, a different dynamic is playing out.
在对民主党获得参议院多数席位至关重要的两个州，一种不同的动态正在上演。
In Michigan, Abdul El Sayed, who lost a primary race for the gubernatorial nomination in 2018, beat Rep.
在密歇根州，2018 年州长提名初选落败的阿卜杜勒·埃尔·赛义德 (Abdul El Sayed) 击败了众议员。
Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), the Democratic establishment’s favorite, for the Senate nomination in a campaign that was watched by the whole country.
海莉·史蒂文斯（密歇根州民主党人）是民主党当权派的宠儿，她在一场全国关注的竞选活动中获得了参议院提名。
He ran on a left-wing populist platform and strongly criticized U.S. support for Israel .
他以左翼民粹主义纲领竞选，并强烈批评美国对以色列的支持。
Although he was not endorsed by DSA—he has never been a member of the organization—and calls himself a capitalist, he was endorsed by many important left-wingers in the Democratic Party, led by Sen.
尽管他没有得到DSA的支持——他从未成为该组织的成员——并自称是资本家，但他得到了民主党内许多重要左翼人士的支持，其中以参议员约翰·特朗普为首。
Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and became the avatar for the Democrats’ turn to the left.
伯尼·桑德斯（佛蒙特州民主党），成为民主党左转的化身。
Although El-Sayed is vigorous, handsome, and a skilled communicator who enjoys fervent support from his base, he may find it difficult to put together the kind of coalition that Democratic candidates need to win in a deep purple state.
尽管埃尔-赛义德精力充沛、英俊潇洒、善于沟通，并得到了选民的热烈支持，但他可能会发现很难组建民主党候选人在深紫色州获胜所需的那种联盟。
His biggest obstacle is the lack of enthusiasm for far-left politics among African Americans who backed Stevens by significant margins in the primaries .
他最大的障碍是非裔美国人对极左政治缺乏热情，他们在初选中以大幅优势支持史蒂文斯。
In addition, his appearance with Hasan Piker , a critic of Israel who has been accused of antisemitism, has alarmed members of Michigan’s Jewish community.
此外，他与被指控反犹太主义的以色列批评者哈桑·皮克一起出现，引起了密歇根犹太社区成员的警惕。
If El Sayed’s left-wing history turns off independent voters, muted support from African American and Jewish voters could cost him the election against Mike Rogers, who lost his previous Senate race by less than a single percentage point in 2024 .
如果埃尔·赛义德的左翼历史让独立选民望而却步，那么非裔美国人和犹太选民的沉默支持可能会让他在选举中输给迈克·罗杰斯，后者在 2024 年的参议院竞选中以不到一个百分点的优势落败。
On the other hand, Rogers’ shift from critic to supporter of Trump’s electoral fraud claims may trouble the independents and moderate Republicans who long saw Rogers as one of their own.
另一方面，罗杰斯从特朗普选举舞弊指控的批评者转变为支持者，可能会给长期以来将罗杰斯视为自己人的独立派和温和派共和党人带来麻烦。
The other Democratic candidate who may be problematic is Troy Jackson, a former state senate president who was nominated after the previous nominee, Graham Platner, withdrew in the face of sexual assault accusations.
另一位可能有问题的民主党候选人是前州参议院主席特洛伊·杰克逊(Troy Jackson)，他是在前提名人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳(Graham Platner)因性侵犯指控退出后获得提名的。
Jackson has some vulnerabilities of his own, however.
然而，杰克逊也有自己的一些弱点。
He is known for his bad temper and may also have authenticity problems .
他以脾气暴躁而闻名，也可能存在真实性问题。
Some opponents in his home region question (and resent) his claims to be a logger after he pivoted to politics decades ago.
在他几十年前转向政治后，他家乡的一些反对者质疑（并憎恨）他自称是伐木工的说法。
Meanwhile, his general election opponent, five-term Republican Sen.
与此同时，他的大选对手、五届共和党参议员。
Susan Collins (R-Maine), has used her seniority to spread grants and public projects throughout her state and has proven her ability to run tough, effective campaigns, often coming from behind to win.
苏珊·柯林斯（缅因州共和党人）利用自己的资历在全州范围内发放赠款和公共项目，并证明了她有能力开展艰难、有效的竞选活动，并且常常后来居上获胜。
But some women will not forgive her vote for Brett Kavanaugh, who voted to overturn Roe v.
但一些女性不会原谅她投票给布雷特·卡瓦诺，后者投票推翻了罗伊诉特朗普案。
Wade, and Trump’s massive unpopularity in the state may be enough to end her long political career.
韦德和特朗普在该州的广泛不受欢迎可能足以结束她漫长的政治生涯。
Jackson now holds a modest advantage in the polls , but it won’t be an easy Democratic victory.
杰克逊现在在民意调查中拥有一定的优势，但这不会是民主党的一场轻松胜利。
President Trump’s trade policies have reduced overseas markets for American agricultural products, and the conflict with Iran has increased farmers’ costs for essential inputs such as energy and fertilizer.
特朗普总统的贸易政策减少了美国农产品的海外市场，而与伊朗的冲突增加了农民购买能源和化肥等基本投入的成本。
In addition, the long delay in passing a farm bill has done nothing to ameliorate farmers’ economic pain.
此外，农业法案的长期拖延并没有缓解农民的经济痛苦。
These realities have created unexpected opportunities for high-quality candidates in three states—Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska—that Trump carried by double-digit margins less than two years ago.
这些现实为爱荷华州、堪萨斯州和内布拉斯加州这三个州的高质量候选人创造了意想不到的机会，不到两年前，特朗普以两位数的优势赢得了这三个州的支持。
In Iowa, the Democratic nominee, state Rep.
在爱荷华州，民主党候选人、州众议员。
Josh Turek, has rejected a knee-jerk allegiance to his political party.
乔什·图雷克下意识地拒绝效忠他的政党。
“I don’t care if it’s a Republican idea or a Democratic idea,” he says .
“我不在乎这是共和党的想法还是民主党的想法，”他说。
“I will be out there, always [asking] ‘What is best for the people?’” As if that wasn’t enough to separate himself from the national Democrats, when Kamala Harris offered to campaign for him, he rejected the offer .
“我会在那里，总是[问]‘什么对人民来说是最好的？’”似乎这还不足以使他与全国民主党分开，当卡马拉·哈里斯提出为他竞选时，他拒绝了这个提议。
In Kansas, Methodist minister Adam Hamilton is widely regarded as one of the most credible Democratic Senate nominees in decades .
在堪萨斯州，卫理公会部长亚当·汉密尔顿被广泛认为是几十年来最可信的民主党参议院提名人之一。
And in Nebraska, Democrats have decided not to field their own candidate but rather to unify around former union leader Dan Osborn, an independent who ran a surprisingly strong race against the incumbent Republican senator in 2024.
在内布拉斯加州，民主党决定不派出自己的候选人，而是团结在前工会领袖丹·奥斯本 (Dan Osborn) 周围，这位无党派人士在 2024 年与现任共和党参议员的竞选中表现出惊人的强劲势头。
In all three farm states, polls show that these candidates are remarkably close in elections that would likely not be competitive if Trump and his agricultural policies were more popular.
在所有三个农业州，民意调查显示，这些候选人的选举结果非常接近，如果特朗普和他的农业政策更受欢迎，那么选举可能不会具有竞争力。
Although New Hampshire’s primary election will not be held until Sept.
尽管新罕布什尔州的初选要到九月份才会举行。
8, the state’s Senate race is likely to feature two strong candidates—four-term Democratic Rep.
8 月 8 日，该州参议员竞选可能会有两位强有力的候选人——四届民主党众议员。
Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) and former Republican Sen.
克里斯·帕帕斯（新罕布什尔州民主党人）和前共和党参议员。
John E.
约翰·E。
Sununu (R-N.H.)—squaring off against each other in the general election.
苏努努（R-NH）——在大选中相互对峙。
Although New Hampshire tilts Democratic (Kamala Harris carried the state by 3 points in 2024), Pappas’ lead averages a modest 4 points , and the Sununu family is highly respected in the state.
尽管新罕布什尔州偏向民主党（卡马拉·哈里斯在 2024 年以 3 个百分点的优势领先该州），但帕帕斯的平均领先优势只有 4 个百分点，而且苏努努家族在该州备受尊敬。
(The candidate’s father, John Sununu, served as governor of New Hampshire from 1983 to 1989 before moving on to become White House chief of staff under President George H.
（该候选人的父亲约翰·苏努努 (John Sununu) 曾于 1983 年至 1989 年担任新罕布什尔州州长，随后成为乔治·H·布什总统领导下的白宫办公厅主任。
W.
W.
Bush, and the candidate’s brother, Chris Sununu, stepped down in January 2025 after serving as a popular governor for four consecutive terms.) If Pappas has a major stumble during the campaign, Sununu could eke out an upset victory.
布什和候选人的兄弟克里斯·苏努努 (Chris Sununu) 在连续四届担任受欢迎的州长后于 2025 年 1 月辞职。）如果帕帕斯在竞选期间出现重大失误，苏努努可能会爆冷获胜。
And then there is Alaska, a state that is as unique in American politics as it is in other respects.
然后是阿拉斯加，这个州在美国政治中和其他方面一样独特。
The state’s economy revolves around natural resources, and the state’s cold weather and long distances between remote towns make its residents highly dependent on affordable energy.
该州的经济以自然资源为中心，该州寒冷的天气和偏远城镇之间的遥远距离使其居民高度依赖负担得起的能源。
The top four finishers in its nonpartisan primary move on to the general election, the result of which is determined by ranked-choice voting.
无党派初选的前四名将进入大选，大选结果由排名选择投票决定。
The state has long displayed a quirky independent streak.
该州长期以来一直表现出一种奇怪的独立倾向。
Ross Perot received 28.4% of Alaska’s vote in the 1992 presidential election , and incumbent Sen.
罗斯·佩罗在 1992 年总统选举中获得阿拉斯加州 28.4% 的选票，现任参议员。
Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) won reelection as a write-in candidate after losing the Republican primary in 2010.
丽莎·穆尔科斯基（阿拉斯加州共和党人）在 2010 年共和党初选失利后，以补选候选人身份再次当选。
This year, former Democratic representative Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) is running against the incumbent Republican Sen.
今年，前民主党众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉（阿拉斯加州民主党人）将与现任共和党参议员玛丽·佩尔托拉竞选。
Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska).
丹·沙利文（阿拉斯加州共和党）。
These two finished in the top two places, with Peltola 7 points ahead of Sullivan in the first round of voting .
两人位列前两名，佩尔托拉在第一轮投票中领先沙利文 7 分。
In November, however, four candidates will be on the ballot, and the third-place finisher, with 2.5% of the vote, is also named Dan Sullivan.
然而，11 月份将有四名候选人参加投票，第三名的候选人也名为丹·沙利文 (Dan Sullivan)，得票率为 2.5%。
If his backers do not designate Sen.
如果他的支持者不指定参议员。
Dan Sullivan as their second choice on the ranked-choice ballot, the confusion could cost the incumbent senator his seat.
丹·沙利文是他们在排名选择投票中的第二选择，这种混乱可能会让现任参议员失去席位。
Meanwhile, Peltola’s campaign slogan—family, fish, and freedom—captures Alaska’s distinctive political culture.
与此同时，佩尔托拉的竞选口号——家庭、鱼类和自由——体现了阿拉斯加独特的政治文化。
Like Josh Turek in Iowa, Peltola has attempted to distance herself from the national party by rejecting an offer of endorsement from Kamala Harris.
与爱荷华州的乔什·图雷克一样，佩尔托拉也试图通过拒绝卡马拉·哈里斯的支持提议来与国家党保持距离。
This could be her year.
今年可能是她的一年。
Early in President Trump’s second term, few observers gave Democrats much chance of recapturing the Senate in 2026.
在特朗普总统第二任期初期，很少有观察家认为民主党有很大机会在 2026 年重新夺回参议院席位。
Eighteen months later, the odds have shifted in their favor.
十八个月后，形势对他们有利。
The president’s failure to rein in high prices, coupled with his inability to bring the conflict with Iran to a successful conclusion, has sharply reduced his job approval, hampering his party’s candidates as the midterm election nears.
总统未能控制高物价，加上他未能成功结束与伊朗的冲突，导致他的工作支持率大幅下降，在中期选举临近之际阻碍了他所在政党的候选人。
With a couple of exceptions, Democrats have managed to recruit strong candidates, while Trump’s endorsement of Republicans based on their loyalty to him and the MAGA movement has weakened their prospects in states such as Georgia, Texas, and North Carolina.
除了少数例外，民主党已经成功招募到了实力强劲的候选人，而特朗普基于共和党人对他和 MAGA 运动的忠诚而对共和党人的支持，削弱了他们在佐治亚州、德克萨斯州和北卡罗来纳州等州的前景。
As of now, control of the Senate is balanced on a knife’s edge.
截至目前，参议院的控制权处于危险边缘。
If Democrats can win the lion’s share of close races, they could end up with 51 seats.
如果民主党能够在势均力敌的竞选中赢得大部分席位，他们最终可能会获得 51 个席位。
If Democratic turnout is strong across the country, they could do even better.
如果全国各地的民主党投票率很高，他们可能会做得更好。
But Republicans will have all the money they need to exploit Democrats’ vulnerabilities, and they know how to run and win tough races.
但共和党人将拥有利用民主党人的弱点所需的所有资金，而且他们知道如何参加并赢得艰难的竞选。
This year’s contest for control of the Senate is likely to go down to the wire, and the outcome will have significant consequences for the final two years of the Trump presidency.
今年的参议院控制权争夺可能会进入最后阶段，其结果将对特朗普总统任期的最后两年产生重大影响。