Global economic governance: Navigating the Thucydides and Kindleberger traps

The Thucydides trap captures the increased risk of conflict as an incumbent power is challenged by a rising power.

修昔底德陷阱体现了当现有大国受到新兴大国挑战时冲突风险的增加。

Coined by Graham Allison, the term harks back to the ancient Greek historian Thucydides who wrote that the threat perceived by Sparta, the established hegemon, from the rise of Athens made economic conflict and eventually a war—the Peloponnesian War—inevitable.

该术语由格雷厄姆·艾利森（Graham Allison）创造，可以追溯到古希腊历史学家修昔底德（Thucydides），他写道，老牌霸主斯巴达感受到雅典崛起带来的威胁，导致经济冲突，并最终导致战争（伯罗奔尼撒战争）不可避免。

The Kindleberger trap , a term coined by Joseph Nye, captures the risk of a leadership vacuum and economic instability when the international power structure shifts.

金德尔伯格陷阱是约瑟夫·奈创造的一个术语，它捕捉到了国际权力结构发生转变时出现领导真空和经济不稳定的风险。

It recalls the economist Charles Kindleberger who argued that the decline of British power in the 1930s and the unwillingness of the United States, the rising power, to assume global leadership as the world economy faced shocks contributed to the Great Depression.

它让人想起经济学家查尔斯·金德尔伯格 (Charles Kindleberger)，他认为 20 世纪 30 年代英国实力的衰落，以及在世界经济面临冲击时崛起的美国不愿承担全球领导地位，导致了大萧条。

Fast forward to the present, and we see this history flashing warning signs again.

快进到现在，我们看到这段历史再次闪烁着警告信号。

The Thucydides and Kindleberger traps loom large over global economic governance today.

修昔底德和金德尔伯格陷阱在当今的全球经济治理中显得尤为突出。

The world is seeing an epochal geopolitical transition.

世界正在经历划时代的地缘政治转型。

The rise of China, and other new economic powers, is ending the postwar unipolar world order led by the United States.

中国和其他新经济大国的崛起正在结束美国领导的战后单极世界秩序。

Intensifying international power rivalries, particularly between China and the United States, and populist politics are fueling economic nationalism .

国际权力竞争（尤其是中美之间）的加剧以及民粹主义政治正在助长经济民族主义。

Economic interdependence is being weaponized , and geopolitical power plays are supplanting rules-based frameworks for international engagement.

经济相互依存正在被武器化，地缘政治权力博弈正在取代基于规则的国际参与框架。

The dominant neoliberal policy paradigm is being upended: Nationalist industrial policies and protectionism are on the rise even in economies—notably the United States—that had been the champions of free markets and open trade.

占主导地位的新自由主义政策范式正在被颠覆：即使在曾经是自由市场和开放贸易倡导者的经济体（尤其是美国）中，民族主义产业政策和保护主义也在抬头。

The U.S.-China trade war is the most vivid illustration of major-power geopolitical rivalry translating into economic conflict.

中美贸易战是大国地缘政治竞争转化为经济冲突的最生动例证。

The postwar multilateral system for economic cooperation is threatened by its very architect—the United States—as the Trump administration’s “America First” agenda pivots sharply from multilateral engagement toward unilateral action.

随着特朗普政府的“美国优先”议程急剧从多边参与转向单边行动，战后的多边经济合作体系受到其缔造者美国的威胁。

An alternative “benevolent hegemon” is not in sight, with China both unable and unwilling to step up to the responsibilities of a global leadership role.

另一个“仁慈的霸权”并不存在，中国既无法也不愿意承担全球领导角色的责任。